Deflation in Canada in the late 1950's led the Bank of Canada to create the floating Dollar. Now it's sinking.Biggest inflation rate fall since 1959 raises deflation concerns
Economists fear deflation because consumers and businesses are more likely to delay purchases hoping that prices will fall further, slowing economic activity and business investments.
But more importantly, CIBC World Markets economist Avery Shenfeld said deflation often appears as the final nail in the coffin of a dying economy.
"Typically the only way you get deflation is if you've had a massive recession that has high unemployment rates and a lot of economic slack, so the conditions in which you get deflation are certainly not welcome," he explained.
One factor that may offset the potential for deflation is a recent drop in the value of the Canadian dollar. After starting the year near to parity with its American counterpart, the loonie, as the Canadian currency is popularly known, fell below 80 United States cents this week.
SEE:Here Come the SeventiesFind blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:Bank of Canada, dollar, Canada, deflation, loonie, exchange-rates, 1961, Diefenbuck
I love it when folks who are in charge of the eonomy claim that they didn't see the recession coming, or they didn't expect it or they are shocked by it. There is little doubt this week's developments signalled a change in the economic conditions affecting the province -- and in the messages coming from the Stelmach government, said political scientist Peter McCormick of the University of Lethbridge.
"I do think Alberta thought it was flying pretty high -- 'Recessions might hit lesser economies but they can't hurt us because we're oil, and oil never hurts,' " he said Friday."This is completely new territory for the government."Oh please Peter gimme a break. There was the recession and oil crash of the seventies when the Tired Old Tories first took power. Then there was the oil boom and crash of the late seventies and early eighties which occured while the rest of Canada went into recession, by 1982 the oil market collapsed and Alberta followed the rest of the country into a downward spiral. Then there was the recession and debt/deficit crisis of the ninties. And through out it all the Tired Old Tories were in charge. So this ain't new territory.Indeed the rose coloured blinders of the oil boom that the Tired Old Tories wear are the same ones they wore in the seventies and eighties. And now the recession has hit Alberta, we still have a budget surplus, just as we did in the ninties. But like the ninties, watch for the Tired Old Tories to start belt tightening and attacking the public sector while giving royalty holidays to their pals in Big Oil.Indeed, the economic woes have hit on a number of fronts: the stock market slide has hammered Calgary-based petroleum producers; Alberta's housing market is slowing; retail sales are down; a handful of jobs have been cut.
While Ontario's manufacturing sector has been feeling the pain for months, the downturn in commodity markets -- particularly for crude oil -- is squeezing Alberta.
"We have been living in a bit of a dream world for the last little while. Things have not been well in other parts of the country," noted University of Calgary economist Ken McKenzie. "Until recently, we've been relatively removed from that because of high oil prices."Much of the concern stems from just how quickly economic conditions, including commodity markets, have changed.
Resource revenue is still on pace this year for a record $14.6 billion, but it's about $4.3 billion less than what was predicted only three months ago.Banks predict the Alberta economy will grow 1.9 per cent this year, gearing down to 0.3 per cent in 2009 -- the slowest since 1986.
"A $2-billion surplus is not a catastrophe compared to other provinces," Bernard said Friday. "There are a lot of positives, I think, for the Alberta economy, but for sure the drop in commodity prices is going to hurt."
McCormick agrees the province is faring better than other parts of the country where deficits are now being calculated. However, the government is trying to manage expectations by talking about tough times ahead.
"It's directed at universities, hospitals, school boards and government employees who are thinking about salary negotiations coming up -- that's who they are talking to," he said. "They are trying to get rid of boom-talk and boom-mentality now."Alberta veers on royaltiesFinancial crisis forces energy-rich province to back down on its demands for a "fair share" from the development of its resources; New transitional rate for oil and gas wells will cost government $1.8-billion over the next five years.It's the second time this year Alberta backtracks on the new policy, launched when energy prices were thought to rise forever. Last April, it backed off royalty increases affecting gas wells deeper than 2,500 metres and oil wells deeper than 2,000 metres.
The changes won't be the last.SEE:Black GoldSteady Eddie Runs Away Lougheed Spanks KleinDon Getty's Legacy You Won't Have Me To Kick Around Lack of Planning Created Skills Shortage in Alberta Laundry Workers Fight PrivatizationFind blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:$100 oil, Alberta, tarsands, oilsands, Canada, peak oil, royalties, oil, profits, Province, Bill Hunter, Alberta Royalty Review,Alberta Cabinet, CAPP, Ed Stelmach,Big Oil,oil royalties,
Up the road without a map
KEN LEWENZA
national president, Canadian Auto Workers union
November 20, 2008
Your editorial demands CAW concessions as part of any deal to restructure the North American auto industry (Keeping A Foot In The Car Door - Nov. 19).
The CAW was the first major player in the North American industry to respond pro-actively to the devastating effects of the financial crisis and credit crunch. Our new three-year contract freezes wages, suspends cost of living protection, and introduces, once fully implemented, savings totalling $300-million per year (or more than $10,000 per worker, per year) for Canadian auto makers.
Auto labour costs are significantly lower in Canada than in the U.S., Germany and Japan - yet our productivity is higher (at least 10 per cent better than in America).
We didn't write the free trade deals, we don't manage the companies, we don't design the vehicles - we just build them. The best thing we can do as auto workers is to keep building vehicles in the most efficient, high-quality plants in the hemisphere, at competitive costs.CAW Ken Lewenza says; "We didn't write the free trade deals, we don't manage the companies, we don't design the vehicles - we just build them." And that's the problem. The solution to the auto crisis is not more concessions from the workers, thats been tried and it hasn't worked. Just as federal provincial aid have not helped because we lack a made in Canada Industrial strategy.Jim Stanford, chief economist at the CAW, said newly signed contracts between the union and the Canadian arms of the Detroit automakers include several unprecedented givebacks, such as an 18-month suspension in cost-of-living increases.
A lack of policy attention from governments in both Canada and the United States have contributed to Detroit's collapse as much as anything else, he said.
"In Japan and Germany and Korea and now China, governments proactively nurture and support high-value export industries like autos. In North America, for the last two decades, we haven't bothered."Rather the solution is right in front of all of us the workers should control auto manufacturing in Canada they should manage and design the cars not just 'build them'.
Ken if you don't want to discuss concessions then you better start talking about workers control of the means of production. If there is to be a bailout, let it be for us, the workers. Who dare say we’re unqualified? In the 1920s Italian workers at Fiat and Alfa Romeo took over the plants, and they made cars without bosses. Even as we speak, workers in Venezuela are taking over plants and running them.And I would add to that the Paris Revolution of 1968 and the Hot Autumn of 1969 when auto workers in France and Italy along with student radicals took over factories and universities and put them under worker control.Capitalism is in a crisis it is time to socialize capital under workers control.November 20, 2008
A suggestion for Big Three and UAW (updated)Michael NadlerMy conceptual solution to the auto company bailout question is as follows:
The federal government makes a one-time only injection of the requested $25 billion into the Big Three in return for a proportionate ownership stake in the companies. Based on the current market capitalization of GM and Ford and my estimate of the market value of privately-held Chrysler, that would give the government about 80% ownership in the 3 companies. (A discount from the market price could be justified for such an investment, providing a higher ownership stake.)
The $25 billion cash injection is conditioned on the United Auto Workers (UAW) accepting a gift of the 80% (or higher) ownership stake from the government, giving the UAW absolute control of the 3 auto companies which will then be exempted from any anti-trust restrictions on consolidations, etc. The fate of the Big 3 and its workers will then be entirely in the hands of the UAW, which could strike the appropriate balance between compensation and competitiveness, as well as the many other issues that will determine the fate of the auto companies it now owns, the jobs they provide and the workers it represents. In that regard, the obligations of the PBGC might be limited as part of this grand bargain.Workers' control of the means of production? One of the most influential books on my political outlook when I was first getting politically aware was Geoff Hodgson's The Democratic Economy, published by Pelican Books in 1984. In it he advocated an economy predominantly consisting of worker-owned enterprises: market collectivism, to use a phrase of Jaroslav Vanek. In a Market Collectivist economy, argues Hodgson(p.177), "The workers are self-managed: they do not work under the direct or indirect control of a capitalist...the workers (collectively) own the product of their labour, which they bring to the market for sale."SEE:We Own GMAuto Solution tags
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Reasearch just published on the results of the October Federal election shows that the new party rising in the West to challenge the Ottawa power base is the NDP. Even in Alberta, where the NDP won a seat they came in second place across the province over all. After all the original reform party of the west was the CCF; the NDP's predecesor. With a seat in Quebec and Alberta the NDP is now a national party unlike the Liberals.Liberals ran third behind the NDP in every last western province. While New Democrats came second in 46 western ridings, Liberals came second in only 24 ridings. And, again in 24 western seats, Liberals placed fourth behind the Greens and Independents. Of 42 seats up for grabs in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Liberals won just a single seat -- belonging to veteran Grit Ralph Goodale.SEE:Liberals Gain Third Party Status Populism and Producerism Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:, Linda Duncan, RahimJaffer, Harper, Conservatives, Cabinet, Government, politics, Edmonton, Alberta, NDP, Liberals, Redmonton, politics, , federal election, Edmonton Strathcona Jack Layton,
