It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thursday, June 15, 2023
DEJA VU
International Energy Agency says peak oil demand in sight by end of decade With advances in renewable and alternative forms of energy, the International Energy Agency sees peak demand for fossil fuels emerging before the end of the decade.
June 14 (UPI) -- Shifts in renewable and alternative forms of energy suggest global crude oil demand will peak by the end of the decade, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said Wednesday.
The IEA expects oil demand will "slow almost to a halt" in the years ahead as the so-called energy transition -- the pivot away from fossil fuels -- accelerates.
"The shift to a clean energy economy is picking up pace, with a peak in global oil demand in sight before the end of this decade as electric vehicles, energy efficiency and other technologies advance," IEA executive director Fatih Birol said.
With an expected move away from crude oil, the IEA estimated that $2.8 trillion will be invested globally in the energy sector this year, with around $1.7 trillion of that going to cleaner technologies such as nuclear power, renewable energy and electric vehicles.
For just solar power, investments are on pace to overtake capital spending on oil production for the first time.
The rest of that, some $1 trillion, will go toward more traditional forms of energy, such as coal and crude oil.
Despite his comments Wednesday in the IEA's monthly oil report, Birol has a long track record of vocal support for alternative energy, particularly electric vehicles.
The IEA said more than 10 million electric vehicles were sold last year, and sales are expected to reach 14 million in 2023 -- a pace the agency described as "explosive."
Cars, meanwhile, are just the "first wave," with buses and long-haul trucks expected to follow recent trends.
Birol said in April that EVs are ushering in a historic transformation not only for the global energy landscape, but for the auto manufacturing sector worldwide.
With the IEA predicting something of a sea change in global energy markets, Birol offered a stark warning to energy companies.
"Oil producers need to pay careful attention to the gathering pace of change and calibrate their investment decisions to ensure an orderly transition," he said Wednesday.
The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum ...
Hubbert's prediction compared to actual US crude oil production, data from EIA. Note that the inclusion of Alaska in the data results in a peak that is not ...
Antarctic tipping points: the irreversible changes to come if we fail to keep warming below 2℃
Ongoing warming will speed up ice loss and ocean warming, pushing Antarctica towards thresholds of irreversible change. Vincent LECOMTE/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images
The world has now warmed by 1.2℃ above pre-industrial levels (defined as the average temperature between 1805 and 1900) and has experienced 20cm of global sea-level rise.
Significantly higher sea-level rise and more frequent extreme climate events will happen if we overshoot the Paris Agreement target to keep warming well below 2℃. Currently, we are on track to average global warming of 3-4℃ by 2100.
While the recent Antarctic extremes are not necessarily tipping points, ongoing warming will accelerate ice loss and ocean warming, pushing Antarctica towards thresholds which, once crossed, would lead to irreversible changes – with global long-term, multi-generational repercussions and major consequences for people and the environment.
The Earth system is designed to reach equilibrium (come into balance) in response to climate heating, but the last time atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO₂) were as high as they are today (423ppm) was three million years ago.
It took a millennium for the world’s climate to adjust to this. When it did, Earth’s surface was 2℃ warmer and global sea-levels were 20m higher due to Antarctic ice-sheet melting. Back then, even our earliest human ancestors were yet to evolve.
The evolution of humankind could only begin after CO₂ levels dropped below 300ppm, about 2.7 million years ago. Since then, Earth’s average temperature has fluctuated between 10℃ during ice ages and 14℃ during warmer inter-glacial periods.
During the past 10,000 years of our present inter-glacial period, Earth’s greenhouse gas thermostat has been set at 300ppm of CO₂, maintaining a pleasant average temperature of 14℃. A goldilocks climate – not too hot, not too cold – but just right for human civilisation to flourish.
The Earth system is interconnected
Current global heating is taking the Earth system across a threshold humans have never experienced, into a climate where Antarctica’s ice shelves and marine ice sheets can no longer exist and one billion people, currently living near the coast, will be drowned by rising seas.
This will be a world where wildfires, heatwaves, atmospheric rivers, extreme rainfalls and droughts – such as those we have seen globally last summer – become commonplace.
The Earth system (oceans, atmosphere, cryosphere, ecosystems etc) is interconnected. This allows energy flow, enabling physical and ecological systems to remain in balance, or to regain balance. But connections can also mean dependencies, leading to reactions, amplifying feedbacks and consequences. Changes have roll-on effects, much like toppling dominoes.
Feedback loops – cyclical chain reactions that repeat again and again – can make the effects of climate change stronger or weaker, sometimes stabilising the system, but more often amplifying a response with adverse impacts.
Here, we outline one sequence of changes and consequences, including feedback loops and thresholds, using the example of global heating melting Antarctica’s ice sheets and the resulting sea-level rise.
This graph shows how unabated climate change sets off a cascade of effects that result in more severe consequences and impacts, some of which will be irreversible over many generations into the future. Bec McMaster of ReMaster, CC BY-ND
We take a 50-year view into the future, as this is relevant for today’s policy makers but also sets in place much longer multi-generational consequences. While we focus on this example, there are many other Antarctic tipping points, including the effects of freshwater from ice-sheet melt on marine ecosystems and the effects of Antarctic change on Aotearoa’s temperature and rainfall patterns.
Antarctica in a warming world
Unless we change our current emissions trajectory, this is what to expect.
By 2070, the climate over Antarctica (Te Tiri o te Moana) will warm by more than 3℃ above pre-industrial temperatures. The Southern Ocean (Te Moana-tāpokopoko-a-Tāwhaki) will be 2℃ warmer.
As a consequence, more than 45% of summer sea ice will be lost, causing the surface ocean and atmosphere over Antarctica to warm even faster as dark ocean replaces white sea ice, absorbing more solar radiation and re-emitting it as heat. This allows warm, moist air in atmospheric rivers from the tropics to penetrate further south.
This accelerated warming of the Antarctic climate is a phenomenon known as polar amplification. This is already happening in the Arctic, which is warming two to three times faster than the global average of 1.2℃, with dramatic consequences for the permanent loss of sea ice and melting of Greenland’s ice sheet.
Antarctic tipping points
The warmed waters melt the ice shelves, which are floating tongues of ice that stabilise the Antarctic ice sheet, slowing down the flow of ice into the ocean.
Ice shelves can pass a tipping point when local ocean temperature thresholds are crossed, causing them to thin and float in places where they were once held in place by contact with the seabed. Melting at the surface also weakens ice shelves. In some cases, water on the surface fills up cracks in the ice and can then cause large areas to disintegrate catastrophically.
By 2070, heat in the ocean and atmosphere will have caused many ice shelves to break up into icebergs that will melt and release a quarter of their volume into the ocean as freshwater. By 2100, 50% of ice shelves will be gone. By 2150, all will have melted.
Antarctica’s ice shelves hold back land-based glaciers, which flow out to sea under gravity. Wolfgang Kaehler/LightRocket via Getty Images
Without ice shelves holding back the ice sheet, glaciers will discharge at an even faster rate under gravity into the ocean. Large parts of the East Antarctic ice sheet and almost the entire West Antarctic ice sheet sit on rock in deep depressions below sea level.
They are vulnerable to an irreversible process called marine ice sheet instability (MISI). As the edges of the ice retreat into the deep basins, driven by the ongoing encroachment of warm ocean waters, the loss of ice becomes self-sustaining at an accelerating rate until it is all gone.
Another positive feedback, called marine ice cliff instability (MICI), means cliffs at the margins of the retreating ice sheet become unstable and topple over, exposing even taller cliffs that collapse under their own weight continuously like dominoes.
If global heating is not held below 2℃, ice-sheet models show global sea-levels will rise at at an accelerating rate up to 3m per century. Future generations will be committed to unstoppable retreat of the Greenland and marine sections of the Antarctic ice sheets, causing as much as 24m of global sea-level rise.
Parts of Antarctica’s ice sheet are grounded below sea level and are vulnerable to unstoppable retreat, once certain thresholds are crossed. British Antarctic Survey, CC BY-ND
These changes highlight the urgency for immediate and deep cuts to emissions. Antarctica has to remain a stable ice-covered continent to avoid the worst impacts of rising seas.
Programmes around the world, including the Antarctic Science Platform, are prioritising research about future changes to the Antarctic ice sheet. Even if the news is not great, there is still time to act.
Mel Climo, Sandy Morrison and Nancy Bertler from the Antarctic Science Platform are acknowledged for their input and support.
Timothy Naish is a Professor in Earth Sciences, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article here.
RUSSIA State Duma approves first reading of bill banning legal gender changes
Russia’s State Duma passed the first reading of a bill to ban legal gender changes, reports the independent news outlet Mediazona. All 365 deputies present at the meeting voted in favor of the bill.
The bill includes a ban on changes to gender markers in official documents without having first undergone surgery, which would only be possible for those with “congenital physiological anomalies,” referring to intersex people. Hormone therapy would also be banned.
The bill was first submitted to the State Duma at the end of May. One deputy, Pyotr Tolstoy, said the bill would help “preserve Russia for posterity, with its cultural and family values, with its traditional ways, by placing a barrier in the way of the Western anti-family ideology.”
Workshop in Lebanon: Solution to crises lies in Abdullah Öcalan’s proposals
The perspectives of Kurdish people’s leader Abdullah Öcalan were highlighted in the third session of the two-day workshop in Beirut. ANF BEIRUT Wednesday, 14 Jun 2023
A workshop kicked off in Beirut on June 13 to discuss the International Conspiracy against Kurdish leader Öcalan, the global crisis and its effects, the role of a democratic nation and women, and joint working methods for the realization of democratic confederalism in the Middle East.
The two-day workshop is organized under the motto "Road to peace, Together for a democratic Middle East". More than 80 lawyers, politicians and intellectuals from 10 countries in the Middle East and the world, including Lebanon, Iraq, Tunisia, Sudan, Palestine, Jordan, Egypt, South Africa, Iran, Turkey, North and East Syria and Kurdistan are participating in the workshop.
The workshop is organized by the Lebanese Continual Federal Congress, the Newroz Cultural Association and the Multicultural East Platform in cooperation with Demokratia Novu Orao Seclorum and RESILIENT BEIRUT.
The third session of the workshop today was moderated by Kurdish journalist Xazne Nebi from North-East Syria. The opening speech was made by Selwe Qiqe Bin Afiye, member of the African Women’s Union and Committee for Security and Peace, who spoke about Öcalan’s perspective and philosophy of women, equality and freedom.
Selwe defined Öcalan as “a great theoretician with a strategic vision towards the region’s realities and practical proposals”.
Remarking that it was time to make arrangements according to the requirements of the age, Selwe said: “Where do we stand in terms of the practice of democracy and gender equality? Where do we stand in terms of diversity and freedom of thought? We must ask these very questions.”
Academic Dr. Hesen El İsa from the University of Şerq in Raqqa pointed to Abdullah Öcalan’s “Democratic Nation” philosophy, which criticizes the state’s nationalist colour.
El İsa said: “Leader Öcalan examines the system and its institutions, and their primary missions. According to his perspective, their mission is to get organized but they failed to do so and became tyrant administrators.”
Kurdish politician Mizgîn Mugiriyan from East Kurdistan highlighted the importance of re-gaining women’s leading role in society and cited the women-led uprising in Iran and East Kurdistan. Remarking that women should organize themselves according to the changes in the world, Mizgin pointed out women’s capability to achieve anything with commitment and determination. She noted that women’s organizations could be utilized to achieve rights and other gains.
Speaking after, Rihan Loqo, spokesperson of the women’s umbrella organization in North-East Syria, Kongra Star, stated that the first revolution in human history was led by women. She also talked about the concept of Jineology (Women’s Science) which was presented by Abdullah Öcalan in 2008.
“Abdullah Öcalan taught us to demand freedom for women. While dealing with the equality of women and men, he was the first one to bring up the idea of empowering women and stopping violence against women,” Rihan Loqo said.
The workshop continues with the fourth session titled “"Towards a Democratic Middle East", discussing the common strategy for the construction of a democratic Middle East, joint efforts to introduce a democratic confederation in the Middle East, and solution methods for the refugee problem in the region, especially in Syria.
A workshop will kick off tomorrow (June 13) to discuss the International Conspiracy against Kurdish leader Öcalan, the global crisis and its effects, the role of a democratic nation and
Lebanese politicians fail to elect president for 12th time
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, right, casts his vote as parliament gathers to elect a president at the parliament building in downtown Beirut, Lebanon, Wednesday, June 14, 2023.
LEBANESE politicians failed another attempt to elect a president today and break a seven-month power vacuum that has roiled the Mediterranean country.
The session — the twelfth bid to pick a president — broke down after the bloc led by the powerful political party and militant group Hezbollah withdrew following the first round of voting, breaking the quorum.
Hezbollah’s preferred candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, the scion of a political family close to the ruling Assad family in Syria, trailed behind his main rival, Jihad Azour, a former finance minister and senior official with the International Monetary Fund, in the first round of voting.
Mr Azour, who is supported by the opposition to Hezbollah and some of its nominal allies, received 59 votes to 51 for Mr Frangieh, while 18 lawmakers cast blank ballots, protest votes or voted for minority candidates.
However, Mr Azour failed to reach the two-thirds majority needed to win in the first round.
The meeting came after 11 previous sessions by the parliament, the last of which was held in January, failed to elect a replacement for President Michel Aoun, a Hezbollah ally, whose term ended in late October.
Mr Azour has the backing of the country’s largest Christian political parties, the Free Patriotic Movement, which has been allied with Hezbollah since 2006, and the Lebanese Forces party, an opponent to Hezbollah.
Under Lebanon’s complex power-sharing agreement, the country’s president has to be a Maronite Christian, the parliament speaker a Shi’ite Muslim and the prime minister a Sunni.
Japan Immigration Law Creates New Obstacles for Asylum Seekers
Heightened Risk of Refugee Applicants Being Returned Home to Harm
The amendments faced fierce opposition from lawmakers, international legal experts, and civil society organizations. For people seeking refuge in Japan, they will be another obstacle. Japanese policy is already strongly oriented against granting refugee status. In 2022, only 202 people out of 3,772 applicants were recognized as refugees.
In April, United Nations human rights experts criticized the proposed amendments, saying “the absence of appropriate procedural safeguards that explicitly require individual assessment on the circumstances and protection needs prior to deportation, [and] legislative proposals lifting automatic suspension of deportation procedures for asylum seekers ... would undermine international human rights law and the principle of non-refoulement,” which is not returning someone to where their life or freedom would be threatened.
The bill is nearly identical to its predecessor, which was rejected in 2021 following public outcry over the death of a 33-year-old Sri Lankan woman, Ratnayake Liyanage Wishma Sandamali, in an immigration detention center. At the time, UN experts voiced similar criticisms, asking the Japanese government “to respect the principle of non-refoulement.”
Japan’s immigration and refugee policy has long been mired in red tape and unnecessarily restrictive measures. Some refugee applicants are held for prolonged periods in detention centers without judicial oversight, sometimes without adequate access to medical services. Even if they are temporarily released, they are denied work permits or access to basic social services and are prohibited from traveling outside the area of their residence.
Instead of making it harder for asylum seekers seeking refuge from the threat of persecution, the Japanese government should respect the international treaties it has ratified, notably the Refugee Convention and the Convention against Torture. It should end the prolonged detention of refugee status applicants and respect the principle of nonrefoulement.
As recommended by the Japan Federation of Bar Associations, the government should also establish independent bodies to oversee refugee applications and appeals. At the same time, improving procedural safeguards will only help if deportation is suspended for as long as a final review of the asylum application is pending; if Japanese officials recognize an asylum seeker’s refugee claim after the applicant has been sent back to be persecuted, what good will that do?
Popularity of Abu Dhabi's Abrahamic Family House exceeds expectations
Thousands of worshippers flock to multi-faith complex with as much as triple the expected attendance
The Abrahamic Family House, a symbol of religious tolerance and harmony in the UAE, is attracting a growing number of worshippers, faith leaders have said.
In their first media interview, faith leaders heading the mosque, church, and synagogue spoke exclusively to The National about the transformative power of the space, as it opens hearts and minds to different traditions.
Located on Abu Dhabi's Saadiyat Island, the multi-faith place of worship is a milestone in promoting peaceful coexistence in the UAE. Since its opening in March, worshippers have flocked to the complex, exceeding expectations.
“The number of worshippers for the Friday prayers exceeds the total capacity of 350,” Dr Mahmoud Al Khalaf, the Imam of the Eminence Ahmed Al Tayeb Mosque, told The National. “For instance, last Friday, we had more than 1,000 worshippers.”
Religion does not promote conflict
Imam Dr Mahmoud Al Khalaf at the Eminence Ahmed Al Tayeb Mosque.
Antonie Robertson / The National
Dr Al Khalaf emphasised that the mosque, located within the same complex as the church and synagogue, promotes a culture of peaceful coexistence.
He said those who attend the prayers have the opportunity to meet followers of other faiths.
“It is actually an amazing experience for them,” he said. “They can communicate with each other, talk, and engage in conversations, which removes the barrier of ignorance.”
The Abrahamic Family House is a physical manifestation of the Document on Human Fraternity signed by Pope Francis and Dr Ahmed Al Tayeb, the Grand Imam of Al Azhar, during the pontiff's visit to the Emirates in 2019.
True to the spirit of the document, which aims to promote interfaith dialogue and harmony, Dr Al Khalaf said the Abrahamic Family House sends a clear message to people around the world to stop waging war in the name of religion.
“We want to tell the entire world that religions have nothing at all to do with wars or conflicts all over the world,” he said. “Religions are found in order to maintain peace and to achieve the welfare of all humanity.”
A model for the whole world
The St Francis Church within the complex is becoming an important place of worship for the UAE's Christian community, and is learning new perspectives on interfaith harmony, Father Darick D'Souza told The National.
“This is not just a community of Catholics but also includes Muslims and Jews,” he said.
“People come not only to practice their Catholic faith but also to observe and understand other faiths, how they live, and how they express themselves.” Father Darick at the St Francis Church says the inter-faith complex is becoming a model in religious harmony.
Antonie Robertson / The National
There is a daily mass and special Sunday mass which more than 1,000 worshippers attend, again exceeding the designated capacity of 350, he said.
Father Darick said that since the opening, the faithful have celebrated various events such as the Holy Week, Good Friday, Easter, and the rosary month in May.
He said the Abrahamic Family House is becoming a model for the whole world, demonstrating that people can live together with love and harmony.
“It is all about accepting one another as brothers and sisters. That is the whole point,” he said.
“We can live with love and affection for one another, despite having differences. Imagine the whole world coloured with one paint. It would be such a boring place. It shouldn't be. And that is the speciality of this place.”
Interfaith relations grow organically
The Moses Ben Maimon Synagogue in the Abrahamic Family House is the first purpose-built Jewish place of worship in the Arab world.
Rabbi Yehuda Sarna said the synagogue has become a spiritual centre for the entire UAE Jewish community since its opening.
“We have had phenomenal celebrations in the lives of people and families, we've had weddings, we've had baby naming,” he said.
Rabbi Sarna inside the Jewish temple at the Abrahamic House in Abu Dhabi.
Victor Besa / The National
“The main synagogue is not just a place for people to come for prayers. It is also a place for people to come with their dreams.”
He said there's just been a “surge of excitement” for Jewish people coming from all over the world to come and pray in a purpose-built synagogue, the first in the Arab world in almost 100 years.
The synagogue is named after Moses Ben Maimon, a 12th-century scholar, philosopher and medical doctor from the Jewish community in the Middle East.
The UAE and Israel have had a robust diplomatic and bilateral partnership since the two countries signed the Abraham Accords in September 2020.
Rabbi Sarna said the Abrahamic House helps form interfaith connections in an organic way.
“We are breathing the same air, sharing the same cafe and encountering each other really through day-to-day interactions,” he said.
He pointed out how in the month of April, the overlap of Ramadan, Easter and the Jewish festival of Passover brought together people from all faiths in the same complex.
“We were literally within the same geographic area where thousands of people coming together, celebrating each in their own way, but also with an awareness that just next door there's another group, also celebrating their faith,” he said. “And rather than being a point of tension, it's a point of inspiration.”
The Moses ben Maimon Synagogue at the Abrahamic Family House in Abu Dhabi hosted its first ever Passover. Photo: Abrahamic Family House
Updated: June 14, 2023, 3:48 AM
Sanna Marin opens up about how Finland 'danced' into Nato
Finnish politicians were reluctant to speak about Nato membership when Russia invaded Ukraine, she said Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin at London Tech Week. EPA
Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin has spoken about the experience of leading her country into Nato, likening the process to a dance.
Days before she leaves office, Ms Marin recalled the difficult situation her country faced after Russia invaded Ukraine, prompting unprecedented security discussions in Helsinki.
She compared the scenario her administration was thrust into to the “chaotic” period at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, when governments around the world did not have a roadmap to navigate the crisis.
“We didn’t have a manual [on] how to have this Nato discussion within Finland,” she said, recalling how politicians “had to make decisions very fast”.
‘Dancing towards Nato’
Recalling the mood in Finland during the “Nato spring” – when conversations centred on defence, security and potential membership of the alliance – Ms Marin said people were hesitant to say out loud what they saw coming.
“I think everybody in the room knew where we are heading and where we’re going but nobody said it out loud, like ‘we should join Nato now’.
“It’s a dance. You have to make sure that everybody is on board … and make that process very fast but you cannot rush it.
You have to make sure that everybody's on board, because you need that unity.”
Finnish border guards stand near a pilot border fence at the Finnish-Russian border near Imatra, Finland. AFP
She made the comments during a discussion at London Tech Week on Wednesday.
Looking back to February 2022, she said: “It was so hard wake up very early in the morning to face the fact that Europe is in war once again.”
Given Finland’s boundary with Russia, and the historic animosity between the two nations, Finns were eager to discuss security matters despite there being “no consensus” for Nato membership up to that point.
“It meant for Finland many decisions concerning security,” she said. “We have an over 1,300km border with Russia and they attacked another neighbouring country so of course we have to make decisions as well.”
After a war broke out on the continent “it was evident” that Finland’s population of 5.5 million were moving closer to the idea of becoming part of the transatlantic alliance, she said.
Her country’s eagerness to join Nato is “to do with the fact that we always want to make sure that our nation and our people are secure,” she said.
“This is in Finnish DNA because already we have had wars with Russia,” she added.
She expressed hope that Sweden would become a member of Nato at the alliance’s summit in Vilnius in July, saying it would “be very important” for security in northern Europe.
Finland became an official member of Nato in April.
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