The Real Reason Washington Wants Venezuela’s Oil

By Rystad Energy - Jan 21, 2026

• Venezuelan heavy crude could replace up to 5% of WTI intake at U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, boosting diesel yields and utilization of heavy conversion units.
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• China faces higher feedstock costs and financial risk as discounted Venezuelan barrels are redirected toward the U.S., Europe, and India.
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• Over the medium term, rising Venezuelan production and easing sanctions could revive domestic refining and reshape global heavy crude flows.

The timeline of the US–Venezuela conflict highlights a long-term strategy centered on securing heavy crude supplies for US Gulf Coast refineries, which are configured to process heavy sour barrels and benefit from Venezuela’s ability to deliver crude over short lead times. This will reduce reliance on Middle Eastern high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) for the US. Exports of Venezuela crude are expected to recover slowly toward the US, Europe and India, leaving China disadvantaged, while OPEC+ remains defensive.

US Gulf Coast refineries process nearly 1.45 million bpd of imported crude out of an average 9 million bpd in total refinery runs. With between 400,000 and 500,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude (primarily Merey) expected to be added, nearly 5% of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude intake could be replaced by Venezuelan Merey. We used linear programing (LP) modeling (AVEVA) for some Gulf Coast refineries (having coker, catalytic cracker and hydrocracker) to estimate changes in product yields and utilization rates of heavier oil-processing units. The results indicate an average 2% increase in diesel yield, primarily higher utilization of bottom of barrel units, driven by increased utilization of heavy conversion units by almost 2% to 3%.

Over the longer term, as Venezuelan crude production just exceeded 900,000 bpd in 2025, with anticipated US capital inflow and a subsequent demand increase, Rystad Energy expects the Venezuelan refining sector – which has 1.2 million bpd of capacity – to start increasing runs within 18 to 24 months. Current run rates are hampered by frequent power disruptions, unplanned outages and improper maintenance of the refineries. We assess that the typical turn-down rate of 60% should be feasible by the middle of next year.

China remains the primary loser in this evolving structure. The loss of heavily discounted Venezuelan crude undermines the economics of independent so-called ‘teapot’ refiners and places approximately $12 billion in oil-backed loans at risk. Although some Middle Eastern HSFO and heavy barrels may now be redirected toward Asia, Chinese refiners still face higher feedstock costs, longer shipping distances and elevated geopolitical risk compared with the Venezuelan barrels they previously imported. India, by contrast, stands out as a structural winner, with complex refineries well suited to heavy sour grades and a renewed opportunity to absorb Venezuelan crude as sanctions ease.

Venezuelan crude accounts for approximately 500,000 bpd of the 15 million bpd in China refinery runs since around 2019, which marked the start of increased US opposition to the Venezuelan energy sector. Chinese refineries processing heavy crudes are typically integrated facilities equipped with heavy bottom-of-the-barrel upgrading units. As a result, the loss of heavy Venezuelan barrels is unlikely to have any noticeable impact on China’s overall product yields, given total refinery runs of around 15 million bpd. While individual refiners processing this crude will need to adjust their crude slate, these changes are not expected to affect aggregate Chinese yields materially.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views or beliefs of Rystad Energy. 

By Pankaj Srivastava for Rystad Energy

Maduro Redux

The Profanity of Life

by Dan Lieberman / January 20th, 2026

Trump’s behavior has triggered a recall of Mario Vargas Llosa’s novel, based partly on his life, Aunt Julia and the Scriptwriter. In the novel, the protagonist’s employer hires an eccentric Bolivian scriptwriter to write soap opera serials. The novel chronicles the scriptwriter’s success and increasing popularity. The soap operas become more bizarre and reflect the scriptwriter’s descent into madness.

From start of his second ascendancy to king of the kingdom, Trump has exhibited a growing intensity of aggrandizement, internalized success that begs greater accomplishment, and escalations in daring episodes, violations of constitutional norms, and profanity of life. Each day, his disregarding the sanctity of life, permitting arbitrary killing, and indicating he will pardon anyone who commits a crime that has his approval, reflects his scriptwriting descent into madness.

Armed groups — National Guards, Homeland Security and its Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and Secret Service — no longer defend the populace, operate in the benefit of the U.S. president, patrol our streets, commit aggressions, defy laws, and operate without constitutional control. There is no defense to the transgressions, except to take up arms against the armed, and no peace loving and country-loving citizen is prepared to do that. The trend is to increased trampling of national and international law, followed by national and international resistance, followed by national and international strife, and escalation of alarming national and international aggressions by a maddening president who holds the code to releasing nuclear-armed missiles.

Complementing a president descending into madness is a large portion of the population exhibiting symptoms of derangement. The lack of concern for the genocide of the Palestinian people, the inertia in protesting the unnecessary killings of unproven drug smugglers, and the slaughter of up to 100 Venezuelans and Cubans to apprehend a country’s leader and satisfy a U.S. court indictment in a case that will not be resolved for years, highlights the deranged thought. Reactions to the recent shooting of Renée Good by an ICE agent emphasize the derangement.

No normal person can consider the shooting of Renee Good as anything but homicide. From the start of the video of the crime scene to its ultimate tragic conclusion, the behavior of the ICE officers was provocation and use of force. Ms. Good was not entirely blocking traffic, drove the car away as the ICE agents wanted, did not steer the car to the agent who deliberately appeared in front of the car, did not hit the agent, and received bullets through the front and side windshields from ICE officer Jonathan Ross, who was never in danger.

The utterances from administration officials — President Trump initially claiming Ross was run over and was in the hospital; Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem saying, that the shooting occurred “because Ms. Good was allegedly using her Honda Pilot as ‘a deadly weapon;’” and Vice President JD Vance haranguing in a briefing that, “The reason this woman is dead is because she tried to ram somebody with her car, and that guy acted in self-defense. That is why she lost her life, and that is a tragedy,” are deliberate falsehoods that do not coincide with the facts.

Reading comments to the reports on the incident in Yahoo news, where a large assortment of the comments agree with the administration, is disturbing. Discussion of the shooting on PBS News Hour by political commentator, David Brooks, increased the disturbance. Brooks recited that, in his X account, followers responded to the shooting in accord with their agendas, splitting exactly as their feelings toward the present administration. He declined to voice his own opinion, willing to leave it to history.

Learning that the electorate is guided by agenda and not by reality and facts is disheartening. How can equality, justice, and freedom be achieved in that environment. Not a day of peace for Americans

Here is an interesting deliberation. Compare the murder of Ms. Good to the response by the Chinese military to the famous “Tank man,” who stopped Chinese tanks on the day after the Tiananmen incident and received no known rebuke, physical or otherwise. We also know that if Officer Ross is indicted and convicted, Trump will grant him a pardon, which is chilling. Dispose of anyone who gains the Trump wrath and don’t be concerned; similar to pardons granted other convicted criminals who were on good terms with Trump, you will not serve a day.

Each day brings another conflict between the U.S. populace and U.S. authorities. Trump has already said “he might use the Insurrection Act to deploy troops to Minneapolis.” With 33 Senate seats and all 435 congressional seats up for re-election, his popularity decreasing, and a possibility that a more heavily constituted Democratic congress might be successful in an impeachment vote and in a conviction, an out-of-control Trump might consider the anarchy he is creating as an excuse to control the mid-term congressional elections.

Will Minneapolis, Minnesota be the 21st century Fort Sumter?

Dan Lieberman publishes commentaries on foreign policy, economics, and politics at substack.com.  He is author of the non-fiction books A Third Party Can Succeed in America, Not until They Were Gone, Think Tanks of DC, The Artistry of a Dog, and a novel: The Victory (under a pen name, David L. McWellan). Read other articles by Dan.

U.S. Seizes Seventh Crude Oil Tanker Linked to Venezuelan Trade

The U.S. seized the seventh crude oil tanker linked to the Venezuelan oil trade (Southern Command)

Published Jan 20, 2026 5:43 PM by The Maritime Executive

Southern Command announced this afternoon, January 20, that U.S. military forces have seized a seventh crude oil tanker. Few details were provided with the statement, only saying the apprehension took place without incident.

In announcing the seizure, the U.S. again declared that “the only oil leaving Venezuela will be oil that is coordinated properly and lawfully.” Southern Command asserted that the tanker was “operating in defiance of President Trump’s established quarantine of sanctioned vessels in the Caribbean.”

The ship, which had been sanctioned by the United States at the beginning of 2025, as well as sanctions by the European Union and the UK, is different in its modus operandi. Built in 2005, the tanker is 106,433 dwt and has been operating since 2022 under the name Sagitta. Unlike most of the shadow fleet, it has not bothered to change its name, but is reported to have used “zombie” identities.

The analytics service TankerTrackers.com reports the ship had operated for three years exporting Russian oil, but appeared to stop after the January 2025 sanctions. It, however, reports the tanker was tracked exporting fuel oil out of Venezuela in August 2025, using a zombie alias.

The Equasis database lists the vessel’s owners and managers as being in China. The ship was previously flagged in Panama and Liberia, but since 2024 has been operating without a flag registry. Lloyd’s Register lists its class certification as withdrawn in December 2024. The last port state inspection appears to have been in 2023.

 

 

The seizure comes as other reports have said some of the previously seized tankers were spotted off Puerto Rico, while the Bella 1 (Marinera) was last seen arriving in Scotland last week to re-provision. Russia’s Foreign Minister today asserted that the United States has not followed through on its commitment to release the two Russian crewmembers aboard the tanker.

Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, told reporters in Moscow that “We were assured that a decision had been made at the highest level to secure their release.” He called on the U.S. to release the crew of the Bella 1 (Minerva) after Russia declared that the U.S. statement that the crew of the tanker might face prosecution is “categorically unacceptable.”

Trump has vowed the U.S. will seize shadow fleet tankers operating in the Caribbean and sell the oil. Like the Bella 1, it appears today’s seizure is of a vessel traveling only with ballast.

India Deepens Energy Ties With the Gulf While Balancing Russian Oil Risk

By Alex Kimani - Jan 20, 2026

• India is pursuing a diversified energy strategy, locking in long-term LNG and nuclear deals with partners like the UAE while continuing to buy discounted Russian crude.
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• Energy ties with the UAE are deepening, with new LNG supply agreements, expanded nuclear cooperation under India’s SHANTI Act.
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• Despite rapid renewables growth and falling coal use last year, India will remain a major consumer of oil and coal for decades.

India’s energy strategy is increasingly defined by balance rather than allegiance. As demand surges and geopolitical pressure mounts, New Delhi is locking in long term supply wherever it can, from gas in the Gulf to discounted crude from Russia, alongside nuclear partnerships that promise reliable baseload power. The approach reflects a broader effort to insulate economic growth from volatility, even as global energy markets fracture along political lines. UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan concluded his visit to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, with the two countries signing a long-term LNG supply deal and agreeing to double bilateral trade to over $200 billion by 2032. The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) will supply India’s Hindustan Petroleum Corporation with 500,000 tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per annum in a deal valued at $3 billion, over 10 years beginning in 2028. The deal will deepen energy ties between the two countries, with Adnoc having closed a long-term LNG supply deal with Indian Oil Corp. for 1.2 million tons annually worth between $7 billion and $9 billion, for a period of 15 years.

The two countries also agreed to expand cooperation on nuclear energy, including both small modular reactors and larger conventional projects. The collaboration is supported by India’s recently passed SHANTI Act, which opens parts of the nuclear sector to private participation and foreign partnerships. For New Delhi, the move fits with a broader push to expand low-carbon baseload power as electricity demand continues to rise. For the UAE, it builds on experience gained from the Barakah nuclear plant and supports a longer-term strategy to remain a key energy supplier even as global demand gradually shifts away from oil.

Meanwhile, India continues to buy substantial volumes of Russian oil.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently threatened to slap the country with more tariffs for buying Russian oil, saying, "They do trade, and we can raise tariffs on them very quickly," Trump said about India's Russian oil purchases. Likewise, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham told reporters, "If you are buying cheap Russian oil, (you) keep Putin's war machine going. We are trying to give the President the ability to make that a hard choice by tariffs."

Graham has proposed punitive tariffs of up to 500% on countries that continue to buy Russian oil. Last year, Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, significantly reduced purchases after the Trump administration slapped sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil in late 2025. The sanctions targeted shippers and traders, causing initial drops in overall Russian oil imports, which were later offset by purchases by state-owned refiners (PSUs). PSUs such as Indian Oil (IOC), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) have maintained or even increased their intake of Russian crude, often through non-sanctioned intermediaries, using long-term contracts.

India is expected to contribute the majority of global oil demand growth in the coming years, leading all other nations, thanks to rapid economic expansion, industrialization, increasing car ownership and rising incomes. 

Indeed, India could account for nearly half of all new oil demand by 2035, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) projecting the country’s energy demand will grow at a 3% annual clip through 2035, the fastest in the world. And, a lot of that growth will come from renewable energy. Last year, India and China recorded the first drop in coal use in more than 50 years, highlighting their ongoing clean energy transition. According to an analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), India’s coal-powered electricity generation fell 3.0% year-on-year to 57 terawatt hours while China’s fell 1.6% Y/Y to 58 TWh, marking the first decline since 1973. Faster clean-energy growth accounted for 44% of the reduction in coal and gas consumption; milder weather accounted for 36% while 20% was due to slower underlying demand growth. According to CREA, this is the first time that renewables are playing a significant role in displacing coal from India’s energy mix.

However, India will continue buying and using coal for the foreseeable future, driven by rising energy demand and the need for reliable baseload power, despite significant growth in renewables. India's growing economy and increasing power consumption necessitate coal for grid stability, with plans for more thermal capacity and a projected increase in overall coal demand to 1.5 billion tonnes by 2030.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

Coal India unit valued at $2.2 billion after stellar market debut

Reuters | January 19, 2026 | 

Stock image.

Shares of Bharat Coking Coal, India’s top coking coal miner, soared as much as 96% in their market debut on Monday, buoyed by optimism around the country’s steel sector.

The stock pared some of its gains to trade 83.4% higher at 42.19 rupees as of 10:26 a.m. IST on the National Stock Exchange of India, valuing the company at 196.48 billion rupees ($2.16 billion).

The shares listed at 45 rupees, compared to the issue price of 23 rupees. The benchmark Nifty 50 was down 0.6% on the day.

The company, which produces coking coal – a key steelmaking raw material – is a unit of government-owned Coal India, one of the world’s largest coal producers. This is India’s first mainboard listing of 2026.

“A combination of things like lower ticket price, reasonable valuations and strong parentage of Coal India have driven the surge in stock,” said Sunny Agrawal, head of fundamental equity research at SBICAPS Securities.

“One can look at Bharat Coking Coal as a proxy player for steelmakers, which currently enjoy a strong business outlook,” Agrawal added.

The $118.7-million IPO drew bids worth $13 billion last week, making it one of the most heavily subscribed state-run offerings in recent years.

India ranked as the world’s second-largest primary market in 2025 after the United States, according to LSEG data.

Bharat Coking Coal’s stellar listing reflects its strategic importance in India’s steel and metallurgical coal supply chain, said Shivani Nyati, head of wealth at Swastika Investmart.

The company plans to acquire coking coal mines in Australia and Russia in the next two to three years, its chairman and managing director Manoj Kumar Agarwal told Reuters last week.

($1 = 90.7910 Indian rupees)

(By Urvi Dugar and Vivek Kumar M; Editing by Janane Venkatraman and Sonia Cheema)

Petra’s 42-carat blue diamond sparks hope for natural gems

Cecilia Jamasmie | January 19, 2026 |

The 41.82-carat blue diamond unearthed at the Cullinan mine in South Africa. (Image courtesy of Petra Diamonds.)

Africa-focused Petra Diamonds (LON: PDL) has unearthed an ultra-rare blue diamond weighing just under 42 carats at its Cullinan Mine in South Africa, a discovery that could sell for as much as $40 million and is already being described as one of the most significant diamonds recovered in modern times.

The rough stone, officially measured at 41.82 carats, belongs to the type IIb category, which accounts for less than 0.1% of all natural diamonds. Independent sector analyst Paul Zimnisky told MINING.COM the gem stands out even among elite finds.

“This stunning stone likely represents the largest high-quality fancy-blue diamond recovered in modern history and could easily be worth tens-of-millions of dollars, perhaps making it the most important diamond recovered this decade,” he said.

Petra said specialists are still analyzing the diamond to determine how it should be cut and when it may eventually come to market. Type IIb diamonds owe their prized blue colour to traces of boron, which absorbs warmer tones, and stones of this size and quality are exceptionally rare.

Historic gems

Cullinan has a long track record of producing landmark stones. And fancy vivid blue diamonds larger than 10 carats have consistently commanded premium prices at auction.

The De Beers Cullinan Blue sold for $57.5 million in 2022, followed by the Mediterranean Blue, a 10-carat gem cut from a 31.94-carat rough discovered in 2023 and sold for $21.5 million at a Geneva auction in May 2025. 

In 2016, the 14.62-carat Oppenheimer Blue fetched 56.8 million Swiss francs ($71.3 million) at Christie’s in Geneva, setting a world record for a fancy vivid blue diamond sold at auction. That same year, a 24.18-carat intense blue diamond from Cullinan sold for $25 million, also in Geneva.

The 10.3-carat “Mediterranean Blue” diamond. (Image courtesy of Sotheby’s.)

Zimnisky said the latest recovery reinforces Cullinan’s unique status in the global mining industry.

“The Cullinan mine is certainly one of the most interesting and iconic mines in the world, across commodities,” he said.

“It has been in production since 1902 and has produced the largest gem-quality diamond in history, the 3,106-carat Cullinan Diamond, which was recovered in 1905 and currently resides in the British Crown Jewels. The mine has also produced most of the most valuable blue diamonds in the world, with the latest recovery added to the list.”

Located north-east of Pretoria, the Cullinan mine is expected to remain in production until the 2040s and continues to be a cornerstone asset for Petra.

Welcome boost

The discovery comes as the diamond industry faces weak demand, economic uncertainty and intensifying competition from lab-grown stones, pressures that have forced miners to cut costs, pause production and rethink their structure. Petra has struggled to generate sustained cash flow despite asset-streaming initiatives. 

Zimnisky said the high-profile find offers a rare boost for a battered sector. “This certainly represents some positive news for the diamond industry which has been hit from every angle the last few years,” he said. “The publicity around stones like this sell the ones bought by regular people.”

Petra confirmed Vivek Gadodia and Juan Kemp as joint CEOs in November after they had shared the interim role since February, with Gadodia leading corporate strategy and Kemp overseeing operations. Over the past year, the pair have focused on stabilizing the business while working through the company’s refinancing.

Looking ahead, Zimnisky said broader industry shifts could help lift sentiment. “2026 could be a pivotal year for the diamond industry with the potential for multiple meaningful catalysts including the sale of De Beers, a US trade resolution with India, and a new phase of natural diamond industry marketing via the Luanda Accord,” he said.

“Sentiment has got so dire that we could very well be at a turning point just as few are expecting it.”

Vale Indonesia says 2026 mining quota won’t be enough to meet demand from new smelters

Reuters | January 19, 2026

Credit: Vale Indonesia

Nickel miner PT Vale Indonesia’s mining production quota approved for this year will likely be insufficient to meet demand from the smelters that will come online later this year, the company’s chief executive said on Monday.

Vale on Thursday said it had secured the go-ahead for its annual mining production quota, known locally as RKAB, and had resumed mining activities following a halt caused by approval delays.

In a hearing with members on parliament on Monday, chief executive Bernardus Irmanto asked for support regarding the company’s production quota.

“The quota granted for PT Vale, around 30% of what we requested, will most likely not be able to meet our commitments for the plants,” he said.

Without disclosing the exact volume, he said the company requested a production quota for this year that was based on the planned input for the upcoming plants.

“We worry that when the plants are completed, there won’t be ore for them,” he added.

He said he hoped the company would be granted an additional quota.

Vale and partners are currently constructing three high-pressure acid leaching (HPAL) plants to extract nickel materials used in electric vehicle batteries.

Its HPAL plant in Pomalaa in Southeast Sulawesi is expected to start up in August, while the development of its Bahodopi plant in Central Sulawesi is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter this year, Bernardus said.

The Pomalaa plant will have an annual production capacity of 120,000 metric tons of mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), which will require 21 million tons of limonite nickel ore a year, company data showed.

The Bahodopi HPAL will require 10.4 million tons of limonite nickel ore a year to produce 66,000 tons of MHP.

Vale and its partners are investing $4.5 billion in the Pomalaa project and $2 billion in the Bahodopi project.

Another plant, in Sorowako, Southeast Sulawesi, is expected to start operations next year.

In 2025, Vale’s nickel matte output was higher than planned, the chief executive said.

The company set an output target of 71,234 tons of nickel matte in 2025, and up to November had produced 66,848 tons, company data showed.

(By Fransiska Nangoy; Editing by David Stanway)

sia targets illegal mining on 190,000 hectares of forest land

Reuters | January 19, 2026 |

Stock image.

The Indonesian government could potentially seize mining activities across 190,000 hectares (733.59 square miles) of illegally cleared forest, the deputy forestry minister told a parliamentary hearing on Monday, as authorities tackle what they say is unlawful extraction in the resource-rich archipelago.

Indonesia’s unprecedented crackdown, which has seen military-led teams take over palm plantations and mines, has unnerved the industry, pushing up global palm oil prices over concerns it will hit output, and more recently, powering rallies in the prices of metals like tin.

“There were 191,790 hectares (mines) that do not have forestry use permits, which could be considered illegal,” Deputy Forestry Minister Rohmat Marzuki said. He did not name any of the companies involved or say how many were involved. Neither did he elaborate on what was being mined or provide any timeline for the seizures.

“The forestry task force has already obtained 8,769 hectares and this is still ongoing to reach 191,790 hectares,” he added.

“Along with the forestry task force, the forestry ministry remains committed in obtaining back the forest areas from illegal oil palm plantations and illegal mines,” Marzuki said.

The military-backed forestry task force said last week it had taken over 8,800 hectares of land where nickel, coal, quartz sand and limestone were being mined. It has also seized palm plantations across 4.1 million hectares (10.1 million acres), an area roughly the size of the Netherlands.

Indonesia’s Attorney General has assessed potential fines of 109.6 trillion rupiah ($6.47 billion) for palm oil companies and 32.63 trillion rupiah for mining companies, for operations in forest areas.

($1 = 16,935.0000 rupiah)

(By Bernadette Christina and Dewi Kurniawati; Editing by Gibran Peshimam and Kate Mayberry)

 

Barrick changes CFO as overhaul continues ahead of possible IPO

Bloomberg News | January 19, 2026 | 

Stock image.

Barrick Mining Corp. appointed Helen Cai as chief financial officer, replacing Graham Shuttleworth whose departure adds to a string of senior exits at the Canadian miner amid speculation it could be acquired or broken up.

Cai, who has served on Barrick’s board since 2021, will take up the role of CFO and senior executive vice president on March 1, the company said Monday. Shuttleworth, who has been with Barrick since its acquisition of Randgold Resources in 2019, will work with Cai to ensure a smooth handover, the company added.

The announcement comes at a time of uncertainty for one of the world’s largest gold miners after the abrupt exit of Mark Bristow as chief executive officer in September.

Interim CEO Mark Hill has continued to shake up management since then — with several other leaders departing after Bristow — as the company weighs a potential initial public offering for its North American gold assets. The new vehicle is likely to become an acquisition target for Newmont, according to analysts including National Bank Financial analyst Shane Nagle.

Bloomberg reported last year that Newmont Corp. had studied a deal to gain control of the two companies’ prized Nevada mines, though its unclear how receptive Barrick would be to any overtures.

Barrick shares rose as much as 2.4% in Toronto Monday as precious metals extended their record-breaking rallies.

(By Sybilla Gross)

NI

Brazilian Nickel, Westwin ink offtake MOU on Piauí project for US market 

 

Staff Writer | January 20, 2026 | 

PNP1000 is the initial, small scale commercial production project at Piauí nickel project. (Image courtesy of Brazilian Nickel.)

UK- based Brazilian Nickel (BRN), announced Tuesday that it has signed a non-binding agreement with Westwin Elements to supply high-grade Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP). 

Under the deal, BRN would sell Westwin up to 10,000 tpa of nickel in MHP and circa 240 to 400 tpa of cobalt in MHP extracted from the Piauí nickel project in Brazil, using the company’s low-CO2 laterite heap leaching process.  

Westwin would then refine the MHP into class 1 nickel powder and briquettes for the US market, advancing the goal of establishing a cost-effective critical minerals supply chain and supporting the overall funding of Brazilian Nickel’s flagship Piauí project, the company said.  \ 

“This agreement with Westwin not only strengthens Brazilian Nickel’s funding structure, but, more importantly, confirms our proven capability to produce high-quality nickel and to position ourselves as a key player in the global critical minerals market,” Brazilian Nickel CEO Mark Travers said in a news release.  

“It underscores BRN’s strategic role in reinforcing supply chain resilience and our commitment to being a reliable, long-term partner to customers in key markets,” Travers said. 

“Establishing dependable supply-chain relationships is essential to restoring US refining capacity,” Westwin CEO KaLeigh Long said. “This agreement advances Westwin’s mission to convert responsibly produced feedstock into Class 1 materials inside the United States, strengthening supply chain security for advanced manufacturing and critical defense applications.” 

Brazilian Nickel last year signed preliminary offtake agreements with European processors Electro Mobility Materials Europe SAS and Königswarter & Ebell Chemische Fabrik, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Pure Battery Technologies, to strengthen the European battery supply chain and advance cleaner material sourcing, it said.  

BHP’s potash blowout overshadows Australia iron ore record

Bloomberg News | January 19, 2026 |

Construction at the Jansen potash project. (Image courtesy of BHP.)

BHP Group, the world’s largest miner, has again blown past cost estimates for its key Jansen potash project in Canada, raising projected investment in the first phase to $8.4 billion — $1 billion above the upper range of an already revised budget announced last year.

Cost and schedule overruns on large projects are not unusual in the sector, but potash — a key plank of BHP’s strategy as all miners scramble for growth — was approved in August 2021 at $5.7 billion. First production is now expected in the middle of 2027, though a second stage of development is still under review.

Production numbers released on Tuesday for the miner’s current core mines were broadly in line with analyst estimates, including record first-half output at its Australian iron ore operations. It produced 69.7 million tons of iron ore overall in its second quarter, up 5% on the same period a year ago, and reaffirmed its annual production guidance.

Realized prices for iron ore edged higher to $84.71 per ton. BHP has been locked in a dispute with China, the top consumer of its steelmaking ingredient, for months. State-owned trader China Mineral Resources Group Co. has sought to curb steel mills’ purchases from BHP, as part of a broader effort to increase the country’s negotiating clout and constrain miners’ pricing power.

The Melbourne-based miner said in its statement that it had responded by being more flexible with shipments, but added it had “seen some impact” to its selling price for iron ore. Other major foreign producers, including Brazil’s Vale SA, Rio Tinto Group, and Fortescue Ltd. will also need to negotiate with CMRG.

“China’s commodity demand remains resilient, supported by targeted policy measures and solid exports,” BHP chief executive officer Mike Henry said, adding momentum moderated in the second half of 2025, “notably in construction, manufacturing and infrastructure investments.”

Iron ore futures have managed to hold their ground in the last calendar year, gaining about 4% in 2025, but new supply could pressure prices lower over the coming quarters.

Production of copper dipped 4% in the three months to the end of December, to 490,500 tons. Realized prices jumped, however, as benchmark levels continue to track higher, breaking through $13,000 a ton.

BHP’s appetite to add to that number prompted it to make takeover approaches for rival Anglo American Plc., all rebuffed. The target has since agreed to tie up with fellow copper heavyweight Teck Resources Ltd. Rival Rio Tinto Group, meanwhile, is in talks with Glencore Plc over a potential takeover, again motivated by the desire to become a stronger force in the red metal.

BHP has bought two undeveloped projects in partnership with Canada’s Lundin Mining Corp. which they have dubbed Vicuña bordering Chile and Argentina. A technical report into Vicuña is expected in the coming months.

BHP’s Australia shares were little changed in early Tuesday trading at A$48.785.

(By Paul-Alain Hunt)