Regarding the ongoing situation on the Caribbean island, we interviewed Roberto Livi, correspondent for the newspaper Il Manifesto, who has a deep understanding of the country’s social and political dynamics, having lived there for several decades.

Can you give us a picture of the ongoing crisis?

The situation has long been dramatic, exacerbated by the lack of fuel. Electricity outages last for hours every day. Added to this are rising prices, making costs unsustainable for most of the population, the dollarisation of basic necessities, and the collapse of transportation, meaning Havana now relies on electric tricycles or bicycles.

This is a terrible picture. Many of my neighbours cook with coal or wood, and at the same time, there’s a general, unorganised political discontent, given that throughout the post-revolutionary era in Cuba there has never been a true civil society, because those so-called, like the Women’s Union and the Journalists’ Union, are actually the party’s transmission belts. Likewise, there’s a growing distrust of the state, incapable of solving people’s material problems.

There’s no organised civil society, but have there been moments of self-organisation in the working-class neighbourhoods or elsewhere?

These aren’t neighbourhood groups, but rather moments of protest, with some leaving their homes, taking to the streets, and starting to make “cacelorazos,” while others join in. In the more peripheral areas of Havana, there are genuine popular movements. But there’s no opposition capable of proposing a transitional program. So these are spontaneous outbreaks that, at best, are quelled by the intervention of party officials or “committees for the defence of the revolution” who try to convince people to hope for an improvement, or by police repression.

The situation is made even more problematic by the fact that there are essentially two opposing forces: the “contra” who are aiming to overthrow the government, and the state that resists, because it’s not true that it has failed.

You mentioned the energy issue. Dependence on oil has been a prerogative of the economic model. In recent weeks, renewables have been mentioned several times, which have gradually been chosen as an alternative in recent years. What can you tell us about this?

Regarding renewables, Díaz Canel reported that today—thanks to Chinese aid—solar energy covers about 50% of the energy required during the day. Problems arise at sunset because of a lack of batteries.

Storage, fuel for the power plants. Furthermore, the neighbourhood micro-power plants They don’t work due to the lack of diesel.

Regarding renewables, around 500 panels have already been installed in as many polyclinics and some hospitals. The same is true in areas where people in need of care live, or in isolated locations.

What are the reasons for this outcome? Are structural issues coming to a head? Has the post-Fidel era accelerated the crisis of a model that, beyond the mitigating circumstances of the historic US embargo, had chronic flaws of various kinds from the outset?

Regarding the crisis of the model, it’s clear that the bureaucratic structure hasn’t worked for some time: the country hasn’t produced, has been in recession for four years, and its per capita GDP is the lowest in Latin America. Much depends on the blockade, but there have been tragic planning errors such as the “Tarea ordenamiento,” that is, monetary unification, and excessive investment in hotels to the detriment of electricity generation, healthcare, and education.

For years, many friendly economists have been repeating that decentralisation and autonomy would be necessary, as well as encouraging greater grassroots participation. A law allowing for partnerships between the private and state sectors was recently passed.

How are the party and the government reacting? What could happen? Is a Venezuelan scenario possible?

It’s difficult to say, because, with no transparency and information from the media, the balance of power is unknown. Differences are known, and the crisis situation is highlighted by Díaz-Canel’s admission of ongoing negotiations with the US, a scenario that is changing the political landscape.

Furthermore, the ongoing negotiations appear to be under the control of Raúl’s entourage, and therefore the military. This suggests that the current leadership’s weeks, if not days, are numbered.

It is also expected that the first overtures toward the Cuban-American diaspora will begin soon.

In short, a transition period is possible, with economic openings and perhaps a new leadership linked to Raúl and the military.

However, it’s difficult to envision anything beyond an emergency phase: Cuba needs oil to survive, and the US can provide it for an interim period, but with the clear understanding that strategically, there must be a change of government. Raúl’s men can buy time.

I don’t think there will be a Venezuelan-style surrender; the two countries have different histories, but given the difficult situation, barring surprises in Iran and the US midterm elections, it will be difficult to negotiate with a straight face and defend sovereignty.

Mexico searches for missing boats ferrying aid to Cuba
By AFP
March 27, 2026



Since last week, activists have left Mexican ports on vessels loaded with food and other supplies for Cuba - Copyright AFP YURI CORTEZ

The Mexican Navy was searching on Friday for two boats that went missing while transporting humanitarian aid to crisis-hit Cuba, authorities and the convoy organizers said.

The vessels set sail last Friday from Isla Mujeres in Mexico’s southeastern state of Quintana Roo, with nine crew of different nationalities on board, Mexico’s navy said Thursday in a statement.

But communication with the crew was lost, it added.

The Nuestra America Convoy said earlier that it would use air, land and sea to deliver food, medicine and supplies to the communist island which has risked being plunged into darkness since US President Donald Trump vowed in January to starve it of oil.

“Mexican authorities have activated their search and rescue protocol for two sailboats en route to Havana as part of the Convoy, which have not yet arrived,” a spokesperson for the convoy told AFP.

“The captains and crews are experienced sailors, and both vessels are equipped with appropriate safety systems and signalling equipment,” the spokesperson said.

While the convoy appealed for information on sightings of the vessels, it said it remains “confident in the crews’ ability to reach Havana safely.”

“Based on the speed of the vessels reported to the Cuban maritime authorities, the window for arrival for the boats in Havana should be between the night of Friday 27 March and midday of Saturday 28 March,” they explained.

The Mexican Navy said on Thursday that there had been neither “communication nor confirmation of their arrival” in Cuba and that it had alerted naval commanders in the region and its search and rescue stations.

The navy said earlier that the boats were due to arrive between Tuesday and Wednesday.



– Cuba in crisis –



Since last week, activists from several countries have left Mexican ports on vessels loaded with food and other supplies for the communist-led island, which faces a humanitarian crisis in the face of a US-imposed fuel embargo.

The navy did not specify the identities or nationalities of the crew members on the missing boats, but said it was maintaining communication with rescue agencies in Poland, France, Cuba and the United States.

The navy is also in contact “with the diplomatic missions of the crew members’ countries of origin” to cooperate and exchange information in real time, the statement said.

It said it was using aircraft to search the route between Isla Mujeres and Havana.

It appealed to seafarers and maritime authorities in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico to report any information or sightings of the missing vessels to the nearest naval authority.

Trump imposed a de facto oil blockade on Cuba in January after the US ouster of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, whose government had been its principal source Cuba’s fuel supplies