Meandering rivers create "counter-point bars" no matter underlying geology

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

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VIDEO: A SEQUENCE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING THE CHANGING PATH OF THE MAMORÉ RIVER OF BOLIVIA FROM 1986 -2018. THE SEQUENCE ON THE LEFT IS COLORED TO TRACK THE FORMATION OF... view more 

CREDIT: ZOLTÁN SYLVESTER/ THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN.

It's not uncommon for crescent-shaped swaths of sand to dot the shorelines of meandering rivers. These swaths usually appear along the inner side of a river bend, where the bank wraps around the sandy patch, forming deposits known as a "point bars."

When they appear along an outer bank, which curves the opposite way, they form "counter-point" bars, which are usually interpreted by geoscientists as an anomaly: a sign that something - such as a patch of erosion-resistant rocks - is interfering with the river's usual manner of sediment deposition.

But according to research led by The University of Texas at Austin, counter-point bars are not the oddities they're often made out to be. In fact, they're a perfectly normal part of the meandering process.

"You don't need a resistant substrate, you can get beautiful [counter-point] bars without it," said Zoltán Sylvester, a research scientist at UT's Bureau of Economic Geology who led the study.

The finding suggests that counter-point bars - and the unique geology and ecology associated with them - are more common than previously thought. Building awareness around that fact can help geoscientists be on the lookout for counter-point bars in geological formations deposited by rivers in the past, and understand how they may be influencing the flow of hydrocarbons and water passing though them.

CAPTION

Satellite images of the Mamoré River colored to illustrate changes in flow path and sediment deposition as point bars (red) and counter-point bars (blue). From 2005-2010, the river (dark blue) undergoes a neck cutoff (light blue). This change in flow path causes small and highly curved bends to form (bends 1 and 2). Counter point bars form behind the bend 2 as it migrates downstream.

CREDIT

Sylvester et al.

The research was published in the Geological Society of America Bulletin on March 12.

The co-authors are David Mohrig, a professor at the UT Jackson School of Geosciences; Paul Durkin, a professor at the University of Manitoba; and Stephen Hubbard, a professor at the University of Calgary.

Rivers are constantly on the move. For meandering rivers, this means carving out new paths and reactivating old ones as they snake across a landscape over time.

The researchers observed this behavior in both an idealized computer model and in nature, using satellite photos of a stretch of Bolivia's Mamoré River, which is known for quickly changing its path. The satellite photos captured how the river changed over 32 years, from 1986 - 2018.

In both the model and the Mamoré, counter-point bars appeared. The researchers found that the appearance was linked directly to short, high curvature bends: little spikes in a river's path.

The researchers observed that these spikes frequently form when the river's course is abruptly changed, such as when a new oxbow lake forms through cutoff, or after reconnecting with an old oxbow lake.

But the sharp bends don't stay put, they start migrating in the downstream direction. And as they rapidly move downstream, they create the conditions for sediment to accumulate around the bend as a counter-point bar.

The study shows a number of instances of this happening in the Mamoré. For example, in 2010, a sharp bend (bend 2 in the image) forms when an ox-bow lake reconnects with a downstream portion of the river. By 2018, the bend has moved about 1.5 miles downstream, with counter-point deposits along the shoreline marking its path.

Geomorphologists and engineers knew for some time that long-term change along a river can be described in terms of local and upstream values of curvature (places where the river seems to wrap around a small circle have high curvatures). In the study, the researchers used a formula that uses these curvature values to determine the likelihood of a counter-point bar forming at a particular location.

Sylvester said that he was surprised at how well this formula - and the simplified models used in part to derive it - worked to explain what was thought to be a complex phenomenon.

"Natural rivers, they are actually not that far from what these really simple models predict," Sylvester said.

This is not the first time that Sylvester's research has revealed that river behavior can be governed by relatively simple rules. In 2019, he led a study published in Geology that described a direct relationship between bend sharpness and river migration.

Superficially, point bars and counter-point bars look quite similar and frequently blend into one another. But counter-point bars are distinct environments: compared to point bars, they have finer sediments and lower topography, making them more prone to flooding and hosting lakes. These characteristics create unique ecological niches along rivers. But they are also geologically important, with ancient counter-point bar deposits preserved underground influencing the flow of fluids, such as water and oil and gas.

Mathieu Lapôtre, a geoscientist and assistant professor at Stanford University, said that recognizing that counter-point bars can readily form in meandering rivers - and having a formula for predicting where they will form - is a significant advancement.

"Altogether, the results of Sylvester et al. have important implications for a range of scientific and engineering questions," he said.

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The research was funded by the bureau's Quantitative Clastics Laboratory research consortium

CAPTION

A computer-created graphic of a river meandering and associated sediment deposits. The lighter blue represents the river's current flow. The darker blue represents old areas of flow that have been cut off due to the river's meandering. The striped regions along the flow paths represent sediment deposits in the form of point bars (red) and counter-point bars (blue).

CREDIT

Credit: Sylvester et al.

 

Picking up a book for fun positively affects verbal abilities: Concordia study

Sandra Martin-Chang and Stephanie Kozak find that fiction lovers are especially likely to benefit from reading

CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

IMAGE: SANDRA MARTIN-CHANG (LEFT) AND STEPHANIE KOZAK: "FEELING COMPELLED TO READ AN ENTIRE SERIES, FEELING CONNECTED TO CHARACTERS AND AUTHORS, THESE ARE ALL GOOD THINGS. " view more 

CREDIT: CONCORDIA UNIVERSITY

Bring on Twilight. Lee Child's Jack Reacher? Yes, please. More of James Patterson's Alex Cross while we're at it. And let's finish off with revisiting the million-plus words of the Harry Potter saga.

SOME RAYMOND CHANDLER OR THE DROOLING ADJECTIVES OF HP LOVECRAFT

No one will confuse the above book series with high literature. But a new study published in the journal Reading and Writing shows that the more people read any kind of fiction -- even mass market stuff sniffily derided as pulp -- the better their language skills are likely to be.

The piece was written by Sandra Martin-Chang, professor of education in the Faculty of Arts and Science, and PhD student Stephanie Kozak. They found that people who enjoyed reading fiction for leisure and who identified as a reader scored higher on language tests, whereas those who read to access specific information scored more poorly on the same tests. Kyle Levesque of Dalhousie University, Navona Calarco of Toronto's Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, and Raymond Mar of York University also co-authored the paper.

As leisure reading declines as a pastime for younger adults especially, Martin-Chang says emphasizing the fun aspect of it can draw them back to novels while at the same time boost their verbal abilities.

"It's always very positive and heartening to give people permission to delve into the series that they like," Martin-Chang notes. "I liken it to research that says chocolate is good for you: the guilty pleasure of reading fiction is associated with positive cognitive benefits and verbal outcomes."

Habit-forming pastime

Martin-Chang and Kozak used a scale developed by Mar called the Predictors of Leisure Reading (PoLR) to investigate reading behaviour (motivations, obstacles, attitudes and interests). They then examined how well the PoLR predicted the language skills of 200 undergraduate students, with all data gathered at York University.

The researchers note that the age range of the subjects in the study is of key interest. In early adulthood, reading becomes self-directed rather than imposed by others, which makes this a pivotal time for developing one's own reading habits. This population is also rather understudied, with most existing research focusing far more on children.

The researchers administered a series of measures over two separate half-hour sessions. First, the volunteers completed the 48-question PoLR scale measuring various reading factors. They were then given language tests similar to those found in the SAT and a measure of reading habits called the Author Recognition Test. This test asks respondents to select the names of real fiction and non-fiction authors they are familiar with from a long list of real and fake names. Scores on this test correlate with both actual reading behaviour and with verbal abilities: those who scored higher read more and have better verbal abilities than those who scored lower.

After analyzing the data, the researchers concluded that reading enjoyment, positive attitudes and deeply established interests predict better verbal abilities and that they were more strongly associated with exposure to fiction than non-fiction.

The written word: a love story

The many benefits of reading have long been established. Besides having better verbal abilities, lifelong readers are known to be more understanding of others, more empathetic, less prejudiced, to attain higher socioeconomic status and even to live longer, healthier lives than non-readers.

Teachers and parents can nurture a love of reading by letting young people read what they want, without guilt or shame.

"This ingrained interest, wanting to read something over and over again, feeling compelled to read an entire series, feeling connected to characters and authors, these are all good things," Martin-Chang concludes.

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Return to work and the path to recovery after serious injury in Black men

UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA SCHOOL OF NURSING

Research News

IMAGE: SARA F. JACOBY, MPH, MSN, PHD, ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF NURSING view more 

CREDIT: PENN NURSING

PHILADELPHIA (March 16, 20201) - After a traumatic injury, returning to work (RTW) can be a strong indication of healing and rehabilitation and may play a pivotal role in promoting physical and functional recovery. But how does RTW after a traumatic injury affect mental health recovery, particularly in individuals who experience social and economic marginalization?

In a new study from the University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing (Penn Nursing), researchers investigated the ways that RTW after an injury predict mental health outcomes in Black men living and recovering in Philadelphia. The study found that men who did not RTW after a serious traumatic injury had almost three times the odds of poor mental health when compared to men who did RTW. The study also found that younger age, lack of insurance or public insurance, and experiences of racism within and beyond the workplace were concurrently strong predictors of poor mental health outcomes.

This is the first study to identify the unique contributions of RTW after injury on mental health outcomes in Black men who recover in the context of urban environments where there are stark and persistent racial disparities in labor force opportunity and unemployment. Results of the research appear in the journal Injury. The article "The Relationship Between Work and Mental Health Outcomes in Black Men After Serious Injury," is available online.

"This study identifies the importance of considering RTW, not just as a marker of trauma recovery, but also as an important influence on mental health and recovery after hospitalization," says Sara F. Jacoby, MPH, MSN, PhD, Assistant Professor of Nursing and senior author of the article. "Interventions that support RTW for those who seek job opportunities in ways that attend to post-injury realities, can be situated within or in addition to strategies that enhance engagement with mental health services, especially for patients who meet screening criteria for depression and PTSD."

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First author of the article is Aimee J. Palumbo of Temple University and past Penn Injury Science Center post-doctoral fellow; co-authors include Therese S. Richmond, PhD, RN, FAAN; Jessica Webster, MS, LPC of Penn Nursing and Christopher Koilor a past Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics SUMR scholar at the University of Pennsylvania. This study was funded by the National Institute of Nursing Research of the National Institutes of Health (grant R01NR013503, Richmond) and the Penn Injury Science Center (Palumbo and Jacoby) with support from the Centers for Disease Control (R49CE002474).

About the University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing

The University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing is one of the world's leading schools of nursing. For the fifth year in a row, it is ranked the #1 nursing school in the world by QS University and is consistently ranked highly in the U.S. News & World Report annual list of best graduate schools. Penn Nursing is ranked as one of the top schools of nursing in funding from the National Institutes of Health. Penn Nursing prepares nurse scientists and nurse leaders to meet the health needs of a global society through innovation in research, education, and practice. Follow Penn Nursing on: Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, & Instagram.

 

Patient wait times reduced thanks to new study by Dartmouth engineers

THAYER SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AT DARTMOUTH

Research News

 

The first known study to explore optimal outpatient exam scheduling given the flexibility of inpatient exams has resulted in shorter wait times for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) patients at Lahey Hospital & Medical Center in Burlington, Mass. A team of researchers from Dartmouth Engineering and Philips worked to identify sources of delays for MRI procedures at Lahey Hospital in order to optimize scheduling and reduce overall costs for the hospital by 23 percent.

The Dartmouth-led study, "Stochastic programming for outpatient scheduling with flexible inpatient exam accommodation," was sponsored by Philips and recently published by Health Care Management Science in collaboration with Lahey Hospital.

"Excellence in service and positive patient experiences are a primary focus for the hospital. We continuously monitor various aspects of patient experiences and one key indicator is patient wait times," said Christoph Wald, chair of the department of radiology at Lahey Hospital and professor of radiology at Tufts University Medical School. "With a goal of wanting to improve patient wait times, we worked with data science researchers at Philips and Dartmouth to help identify levers for improvement that might be achieved without impeding access."

Prior to working with the researchers, on an average weekday, outpatients at Lahey Hospital waited about 54 minutes from their arrival until the beginning of their exam. Researchers determined that one of the reasons for the routine delays was a complex scheduling system, which must cater to emergency room patients, inpatients, and outpatients; while exams for inpatients are usually flexible and can be delayed if necessary, other appointments cannot.

"Mathematical models and algorithms are crucial to improve the efficiency of healthcare systems, especially in the current crisis we are going through. By analyzing the patient data, we found that delays were prominent because the schedule was not optimal," said first author Yifei Sun, a Dartmouth Engineering PhD candidate. "This research uses optimization and simulation tools to help the MRI centers of Lahey Hospital better plan their schedule to reduce overall cost, which includes patient waiting time."

First, the researchers reviewed data to analyze and identify sources of delays. They then worked on developing a mathematical model to optimize the length of each exam slot and the placement of inpatient exams within the overall schedule. Finally, the researchers developed an algorithm to minimize the wait time and cost associated with exam delays for outpatients, the idle time of equipment, employee overtime, and cancelled inpatient exams.

"This iterative improvement process did result in measurable improvements of patient wait times," said Wald. "The construction and use of a simulation model have been instrumental in educating the Lahey team about the benefits of dissecting workflow components to arrive at an optimized process outcome. We have extended this approach to identify bottlenecks in our interventional radiology workflow and to add additional capacity under the constraints of staffing schedules."

The researchers believe their solutions are broadly applicable, as the issue is common to many mid-sized hospitals throughout the country.

"We also provided suggestions for hospitals that don't have optimization tools or have different priorities, such as patient waiting times or idle machine times," said Sun, who worked on the paper with her advisor Vikrant Vaze, the Stata Family Career Development Associate Professor of Engineering at Dartmouth.

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The other co-authors of the paper are: Usha Nandini Raghavan and Christopher S. Hall, both from Philips, and Patricia Doyle and Stacey Sullivan Richard of Lahey Hospital.

Young adults in a 20-year-long study shed light on what matters for mental health of ethnic diverse youth

Study sets the stage to learn about development of psychopathology and resilience among ethnically diverse children growing up in low resource contexts

ELSEVIER

Research News

 

Washington, DC, March 16, 2021 - A study in the Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry (JAACAP), published by Elsevier, reports on the young adult assessment of the now 20-year longitudinal Boricua Youth Study (BYS), a large cohort that brings much needed insight about development and mental health of children from diverse ethnic background growing up in disadvantaged contexts.

The present article, with its companion report on prevalence of conditions and associated factors, provides an update on the study's fourth wave, which follows-up two probability-based population samples of children of Puerto Rican heritage. Unique to the study is its two-site design, which allows for comparison of a single ethnic group in two contexts: one in which the group is an ethnic minority living in an disadvantaged area (South Bronx, NY); and another where though challenges are many, children do not grow up being part of an ethnic minority group (San Juan, Puerto Rico).

"The BYS provides a unique opportunity to understand developmental processes relevant to young adults who are not easily included in clinical, school, internet or telephone-based studies," said lead author Cristiane Duarte, PhD, MPH, Ruane Professor at the Division of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Columbia University, New York. "By focusing on an underserved ethnic group (Puerto Ricans), whose risk for future psychiatric disorders has been well documented in the USA, we add relevant information to a rich tradition of population-based longitudinal studies that have informed our knowledge of developmental psychopathology."

Children have been followed since the year 2000, when the original 2,491 participants were between the ages of 5 to 13 years old. Young adults were re-assessed on average 11.3 years after the last study contact, with retention of more than 80 percent of the original sample. The current article presents the cohort composition during young adulthood as it pertains to survival, mobility, parental involvement and other parameters that are crucial to the understanding of developmental psychopathology processes but are not frequently captured by more selective studies.

Hoping to help advance the field, the paper also provides detailed descriptions of methods and measures used, plus strategies utilized to engage and retain a low-income ethnically diverse cohort. The main aim of the first three waves of the study, initiated by Drs. Bird and Canino at the turn of the 21st century was to investigate development, specifically related to antisocial behaviors at the two study sites.

Co-author Glorisa Canino, PhD, Professor at the Department of Psychiatry, University of Puerto Rico, Puerto Rico, said: "The study included the ascertainment of a wide array of putative risk factors that could be related to differences across contexts. After the completion of the first three waves, the question remained as to whether similar patterns observed in childhood would persist into late adolescence and early adulthood."

The risks threatening the positive development of Puerto Rican youth and other diverse racial/ethnic youth, living in disadvantaged contexts, are now likely being compounded by number of relevant factors. These include the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on underserved racial/ethnic minorities; a prolonged economic depression; and a recent major natural disaster (Hurricane Maria) together with the long-term experiences of discrimination and structural racism that have afflicted these same families for centuries.

The BYS gathers data from childhood through young adulthood on areas such as family relationships, cultural stress and psychiatric disorders, with the addition of domains specific to late adolescence and young adulthood (e.g., sexual risk behaviors, substance use, and financial independence). As such, the study is poised to answer questions that are important to the lived experiences of this ethnic group as they might pertain to mental health and has the capacity to assess the role of context and gender in these associations.

"This study is distinctive and even more relevant today as we unpack the role of minority status in the development of Latinx youth," said co-author Margarita Alegria, PhD Professor, Harvard University. "This represents a unique opportunity to identify assets and risks of Latinx youths' mental health as they transition to emerging adults."

Of note, currently Hector Bird, MD, study co-author states, "The retention of over 80 percent of a sample of children, now young adults, seen more than ten years after the last encounter, has been remarkable. We sincerely hope that the current readers and those of years to come will benefit from the results of this work both in informing epidemiologic methodology as well as from the implications of the findings for the mental health of Puerto Rican and other ethnic groups."

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Notes for editors

The article is "Developmental Psychopathology and Ethnicity I: The Young Adulthood Assessment of the Boricua Youth Study," by Cristiane S. Duarte, PhD, Glorisa J. Canino, PhD, Margarita Alegria, PhD, Maria A. Ramos-Olazagasti, PhD, Doryliz Vila, MS, Patricia Miranda, MPH, Vijah Ramjattan, BA, Kiara Alvarez, PhD, George J. Musa, PhD, Katherine Elkington, PhD, Melanie Wall, PhD, Sheri Lapatin, MIA, Hector Bird, MD (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaac.2020.02.015). It currently appears on the JAACAP Articles In Press page and will appear in the Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, volume 60, issue 3 (March 2021), published by Elsevier.

Copies of this paper are available to credentialed journalists upon request; please contact the JAACAP Editorial Office at support@jaacap.org">support@jaacap.org or +1 202 587 9674. Journalists wishing to interview the authors may contact Gregory Flynn at gregory.flynn@nyspi.columbia.edu">gregory.flynn@nyspi.columbia.edu.

The study was supported by grants from the National Institute of Health (DA033172 and MH098374).

Investigators are in the process of assessing the next generation Puerto Rican children born out of the original cohort participants as part of the US National NIH program ECHO (Environmental influences on Child Health Outcomes). Find out more by visiting the ECHO homepage.

About JAACAP

Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry (JAACAP) is the official publication of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry. JAACAP is the leading journal focusing exclusively on today's psychiatric research and treatment of the child and adolescent. Published twelve times per year, each issue is committed to its mission of advancing the science of pediatric mental health and promoting the care of youth and their families.

The Journal's purpose is to advance research, clinical practice, and theory in child and adolescent psychiatry. It is interested in manuscripts from diverse viewpoints, including genetic, epidemiological, neurobiological, cognitive, behavioral, psychodynamic, social, cultural, and economic. Studies of diagnostic reliability and validity, psychotherapeutic and psychopharmacological treatment efficacy, and mental health services effectiveness are encouraged. The Journal also seeks to promote the well-being of children and families by publishing scholarly papers on such subjects as health policy, legislation, advocacy, culture and society, and service provision as they pertain to the mental health of children and families. http://www.jaacap.org

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In everything we publish, we uphold the highest standards of quality and integrity. We bring that same rigor to our information analytics solutions for researchers, health professionals, institutions and funders.

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Media contact

JAACAP Editorial Office
+1 202 587 9674
support@jaacap.org">support@jaacap.org

FSU researchers discover how 'cryptic species' respond differently to coral bleaching

FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

IMAGE: THE CORAL REEF IN MOOREA BEFORE BLEACHING KILLED THE LARGER CORALS IN 2019. view more 

CREDIT: FSU COASTAL AND MARINE LABORATORY/SCOTT BURGESS

Certain brightly colored coral species dotting the seafloor may appear indistinguishable to many divers and snorkelers, but Florida State University researchers have found that these genetically diverse marine invertebrates vary in their response to ocean warming, a finding that has implications for the long-term health of coral reefs.

The researchers used molecular genetics to differentiate among corals that look nearly identical and to understand which species best coped with thermal stress. Their research was published in the journal Ecology.

"Being able to recognize the differences among these coral species that cannot be identified in the field -- which are known as 'cryptic species' -- will help us understand new ways for how coral reefs maintain resilience in the face of disturbance," said Associate Professor of Biological Science Scott Burgess, the paper's lead author.

The researchers were studying the coral ecosystem at the island of Moorea in French Polynesia when a coral bleaching event struck in 2019.

Corals get their color from algae that live in their tissues and with which they have a symbiotic relationship. But when corals are stressed -- by high water temperature, for example -- algae leave the coral, which turns white, hence the term "bleaching." Bleached corals are not dead, but they are more vulnerable and more likely to die.

Most of the coral at Moorea belong to the genus Pocillopora. During the event, the researchers saw that about 72 percent of the coral colonies from this genus bleached, and up to 42 percent died afterward.

At first, it seemed that the largest colonies were more likely to bleach, but when the scientists examined tissue samples from the coral, they found that colonies belonging to a certain genetic lineage, not coral size, was most important in determining the fate of the corals.

"Because Pocillopora species look so similar, they cannot be reliably identified in the field, which, in the past, has forced researchers to study them as a single group," said Erika Johnston, a postdoctoral researcher in the Department of Biological Science and a co-author of the paper. "Molecular genetics allows us to reconstruct their evolutionary ancestry and are an essential step to species identification in this case."

About 86 percent of the Pocillopora corals that died belonged to a group that shares a set of DNA variations, which is known as a haplotype and reflects their common evolutionary ancestry.

"The good news is that not all of the corals died from bleaching, and many species survived," Burgess said. "The bad news is that the species that died is, as far as we are aware at the moment, endemic to that specific region. So on the one hand, we're worried about losing an endemic species, but on the other hand, our results show how co-occurring cryptic species can contribute to coral resilience."

CAPTION

The coral reef at Moorea during the bleaching event in 2019. Most of the corals had turned white because they expelled the algae living in their tissues, a process known as bleaching.

CREDIT

(California State University, Northridge/Peter Edmunds)

It's an ecological analogy to having a diverse financial portfolio, where a variety of investments decreases the likelihood of a complete loss.

"Having multiple species that perform a similar function for the reef ecosystem but differ in how they respond to disturbances should increase the chance that Pocillopora corals continue to perform their role in the system, even though the exact species may be shuffled around," Burgess said.

Maintaining healthy ecological portfolios may be a better management option than attempting to restore a specific species.

"If we maintain the right type of diversity, nature in a way can pick the winners and losers," Burgess said. "However, the worry for us scientists is that unless the leaders of governments and corporations take action to reduce CO2 emissions, ecological portfolios that can maintain coral reef resilience will be increasingly eroded under current and ongoing climate change. This is concerning because coral reef ecosystems provide economic, health, cultural and ecological goods and services that humans rely on."

Future research will look into the composition of the algae that live inside the coral, the depth distributions of each cryptic coral species and the evolutionary relationships among the cryptic species.

###

Researchers from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and California State University, Northridge contributed to this study.

This work was conducted as part of a National Science Foundation grant awarded to Burgess.

The potential economic impact of volcano alerts

While volcano alerts keep risk-area residents informed of volcanic hazards, a new study finds that alerts issued during long periods of volcanic unrest can negatively impact a region's economy

SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS

Research News

 

The Volcano Alert Level (VAL) system, standardized by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) in 2006, is meant to save lives and keep citizens living in the shadow of an active volcano informed of their current level of risk.

A new study published in Risk Analysis suggests that, when an alert remains elevated at any level above "normal" due to a period of volcanic unrest, it can cause a decline in the region's housing prices and other economic indicators. Because of this, the authors argue that federal policymakers may need to account for the effects of prolonged volcanic unrest -- not just destructive eruptions -- in the provision of disaster relief funding.

A team of geoscientists and statistical experts examined the historical relationship between volcano alerts issued by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and regional economic growth for three of the country's most dangerous volcanoes: Washington State's Mount St. Helens, Hawaii's K?lauea, and California's Long Valley Caldera.

They analyzed the effect of VALs and their predecessors (such as hazard alerts and volcano alerts) on local housing prices and business patterns over a 42-year period, from 1974 to 2016. The economic indicators used in the analysis included annual housing price, number of business establishments per 1,000 square kilometers, the number of employees per 1,000 inhabitants, and payroll per employee.

The team used econometric models to observe economic indicator trends during times when an increase in volcanic activity above "normal" led to a public alert. "Signs of volcanic unrest include ground deformation, rising C02 emissions, and increased earthquake frequency," says Justin Peers, East Tennessee State University.

Both lower and higher alert level notifications were shown to have short-term effects on housing prices and business indicators in all three regions. The most significant negative impacts were seen for California's Long Valley Caldera area from 1982-83 and 1991-97. Home to Mono Lake, Mammoth Mountain, and the very popular Mammoth Lakes ski area, this complex volcanic region has experienced prolonged episodic unrest.

Not all of the volcanic regions experienced a significant long-term economic impact from an elevated VAL. The greatest exception was Mount St. Helens. Peers suggests this could be due to "volcano tourism and close proximity to the major tech hub of Portland, Oregon." Despite catastrophic volcanic potential, the regional economy in the footprint of Mount St. Helens has benefited from tourism to the volcano -- accelerated by the establishment of Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument in 1982.

The study's findings are consistent with those from other natural hazards studies that have documented temporary declines in housing prices following successive hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. With natural hazards, the mere presence of information about hazard potential in the form of a public alert level notification may have an adverse effect on local economies.

This sheds light on a systemic issue in disaster resilience, the authors argue. The federal government currently provides disaster relief for direct impacts of volcanic eruptions and other natural disasters, but limited or no assistance for the indirect effects experienced from long periods of volcanic unrest. Durations of volcanic unrest are often protracted in comparison to precursory periods for other hazardous events (such as earthquakes, hurricanes, and floods). As Peers points out, this makes the issue of disaster relief for indirect effects particularly important in high-risk volcanic regions.

For experts who study the risks of natural hazards, the team suggests they have developed a repeatable and reliable methodology to test hazard alert effects on local economies using publicly available federal U.S. business statistics. "This could be utilized to examine the impacts of all hazard alerts, such as those for wildfires or earthquakes," the authors write.

And for citizens, "we hope this research will help people better understand that the risks involved with living around a volcano are not entirely from the physical hazards associated with volcanism. It's more financially complicated than that," says Peers.

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About SRA

The Society for Risk Analysis is a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, scholarly, international society that provides an open forum for all those interested in risk analysis. SRA was established in 1980 and has published Risk Analysis: An International Journal, the leading scholarly journal in the field, continuously since 1981. For more information, visit http://www.sra.org.