This week, Kenney’s UCP government presented its Alberta Budget 2022, a budget with little good news for working Albertans. Read our fact check blog, press release, as well as other reactions around Alberta.

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Kenney's UCP Budget 2022 fact check

Despite the grand celebration Kenney’s UCP government put forth, which was perhaps best described by CUPE Alberta as a “master class of deception and gaslighting,” there is little good news in the budget for working Albertans and a lot of unknowns as to where funding is actually going especially given the UCP’s plans for privatization of health care and education.

Albertans have shouldered three years of increasing taxes, higher costs, underfunding of public services and outright cuts. The budget shows workers will continue to do the heavy lifting of the so-called recovery. After three years of cuts and underfunding, the UCP government posted a small surplus ($511 million) with revenues boosted by high oil and gas prices mostly due, in part, to Russia’s war with Ukraine.

Since the Kenney UCP government have proven they are anything but trustworthy, the AFL has gone through the budget to determine the facts. Read more.

 

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UCP’s Budget 2022 shows failure to create good jobs for Alberta workers

“After three years in office, it’s clear the UCP government is not concerned about what Alberta workers need to thrive,” says Gil McGowan, president of the Alberta Federation of Labour. “The UCP’s ‘Alberta at Work’ plan doesn’t include workers or their families.” 

“The corporate tax cut was supposed to create 55,000 new jobs – the UCP campaigned on that promise in the 2019 election. Today’s budget shows that this promise was a lie,” says McGowan. “Tax cuts to the wealthy did not create jobs and only resulted in a larger hole in our province’s finances, a hole Alberta workers and their families will continue to fill with higher personal income taxes, higher tuition, higher fees, and investments in public services that have not kept pace with inflation and population growth.”

“While a one-off bump from oil and gas revenues is welcomed, Albertans are not seeing the benefits. Shareholders and larger corporations are flush with cash, but jobs for Albertans haven’t flowed. Albertans own these resources, but they are not seeing full value,” says McGowan. Read more.

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From natural gas rebates to smokeless tobacco, here's how the Alberta budget might impact you

It was one of the many questions looming prior to the release of Thursday's budget — given Alberta's startling reversal in financial fortunes (largely owing to spiking oil prices) — how will this affect the pocketbook of the average Albertan?

We now have some answers. Read more.

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Sohi says Alberta budget a 'slap in the face' for Edmonton

Mayor Amarjeet Sohi decried what he called Edmonton’s “second-class treatment” in the provincial government’s 2022 budget. 

Shortly after the budget was tabled Thursday afternoon, Sohi called it “a slap in the face” after what he described as significant efforts to reset government relations since his election last fall. He suggested the capital city, represented in all but one riding by NDP MLAs, is getting short shrift from the United Conservative government.

“The message that we got from the provincial government today is that Edmonton doesn’t matter, that our needs aren’t being heard, that collaboration doesn’t matter,” Sohi said. “We asked for four basic needs that would help us to make life better for all Edmontonians, but we received next to nothing in return.” Read more.

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Budget 2022: Gondek 'less than impressed' with provincial budget

Mayor Jyoti Gondek said she’s “less than impressed” by municipal investment in the budget, with modest provincial funding for downtown revitalization representing one major disappointment.

The budget allocates $5 million to revitalizing Calgary’s downtown, $1 million of which is directed to the Calgary Downtown Business Association. City council approved $255 million of city spending toward that project in 2021, and Gondek had asked the provincial government to contribute funds.

“I suppose our request for matched funding means two per cent,” Gondek told reporters at city hall Thursday, following the release of the budget. Read more.

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Watch: How health care and education fared in the budget

While health care has been a major focus during this COVID-19 pandemic, this budget actually reduces the COVID contingency spend. And despite Premier Kenney saying there would be historic investments in Budget 2022, the operating budget is increasing at a rate below population and inflation growth -- basically amounting to a freeze. Additionally, with the UCP's push to privatize health care and education, there are a lot of unknowns as to where funding is actually going. Watch news story.

Action

Public health care dollars are for people, not profits

Canada’s premiers are calling on the federal government to increase health care funding for provinces and Justin Trudeau says he’s listening.

But Jason Kenney can’t be trusted with a blank cheque. The UCP and their donors are pushing American-style private health care. Jason Kenney has already started giving more of our health care to profit-seeking companies and is using the pandemic as cover to cut Alberta’s investments in public health care.

Albertans urgently need more investment in our public health care, but the federal government can’t give the money to Kenney unconditionally — we need to make sure our public dollars aren’t handed over to corporate shareholders.

Tell Justin Trudeau not to give Jason Kenney a blank cheque to privatize our health care. Take action.

fACT Sheet 2022 Alberta Provincial Budget

"The 2022–23 Alberta budget, titled Moving Forward, covers finances from April 1, 2022 until March 31, 2023. This is the fourth budget of the governing United Conservative Party (UCP) as they near the end of their term. A provincial election is expected in spring 2023. It is also the second budget that addresses the COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a profound impact on the health care system as well as various marginalized and underserved populations." Our 2022 Alberta Provincial Budget fACT Sheet is out now! Click the link below to read it.

Read the fACT Sheet Here

US or Russia? Ukraine crisis poses dilemma for wealthy Gulf


A visitor takes pictures inside the Russian Pavilion of Expo 2020, in Dubai on October 5, 2021 

(AFP/Giuseppe CACACE)

Mohamad Ali Harissi
Sat, February 26, 2022, 1:33 AM·4 min read

Choosing sides in Ukraine's crisis would have once been easy for Gulf states long protected by the US, but growing ties with Moscow are forcing them to strike a balance.

As the world rushed to condemn the Russian invasion of its smaller neighbour, the wealthy Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), have largely kept quiet.

Middle East experts say their reticence is understandable given what's at play -- energy, money and security.

"It is not only the economic ties that are growing, but also the security ties of these states with Moscow," said Anne Gadel, a Gulf expert and contributor to the French think-tank Institut Montaigne.

On Friday, the UAE abstained along with China and India from a vote at the US Security Council demanding Moscow withdraw its troops.

Russia as expected vetoed the resolution co-written by the US and Albania while 11 of the council's 15 members voted for it.

After the vote, Emirati state new agency WAM said the UAE and US foreign ministers spoke by phone to review "global developments". No mention was made of Ukraine.

Russia's foreign ministry meanwhile announced that the UAE and Russian foreign ministers would meet Monday in Moscow to discuss "further expanding multifaceted Russia-UAE relations".

Hours before Russia unleashed its massive ground, sea and air assault against Ukraine on Thursday, the UAE had "stressed the depth of friendship" with Moscow.

Gulf power house Saudi Arabia has not reacted to the invasion, like the UAE, Bahrain and Oman. Kuwait and Qatar have only denounced the violence, stopping short of criticising Moscow.

- 'Ideological ally' -

For more than seven decades, the United States has played a key role in the conflict-wracked Middle East, serving in particular as a defender of the oil-rich Gulf monarchies against potential threats such as Iran.

But in recent years, Washington began limiting its military engagements in the region, even as its closest allies Saudi Arabia and the UAE have come under attack by Yemen's Huthi rebels.

Saudi oil giant Aramco's facilities were hit in 2019 by the Iran-aligned insurgents.

Gulf countries "understand that they need to diversify their alliances to compensate for the perceived withdrawal of the United States from the region", said Gadel.

Politics are paramount too.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two US allies hosting American troops, have seen their ties with Washington change to a love-hate relationship over arms deals and rights issues.

The 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside the kingdom's Istanbul consulate has strained relations with Riyadh, and the UAE has threatened to cancel a mega-deal for US-made F-35 jet fighters.

"Russia is seen as an ideological ally while American human rights strings attached to their support are becoming ever more of an issue," said Andreas Krieg, Middle East expert and associate professor at King's College London.

"There has been an integration of grand strategy between Moscow and Abu Dhabi when it comes to the region. Both are counter-revolutionary forces and were eager to contain political Islam."

- 'Tough spot diplomatically' -

Despite growing security cooperation with Russia, which is directly involved in the Syrian and Libyan conflicts, Krieg says most GCC states will "still put their security eggs into the US basket".

But "they have started to diversify relations with American competitors and adversaries in other domains".

Trade between Russia and the GCC countries jumped from around $3 billion in 2016 to more than $5 billion in 2021, mostly with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, official figures show.

The UAE, in particular Dubai, has been long seen as a magnet for Russian investment, and a vacation destination for the Russian elite.

As major players in the energy markets, most GCC states have a relationship with Russia as fellow producers.

Riyadh and Moscow are leading the OPEC+ alliance, strictly controlling output to buoy prices in recent years.

"Arab members of OPEC are in a tough spot diplomatically, as maintaining" the OPEC+ deal, which controls production, "is clearly at the forefront of their considerations", said Ellen Wald, senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think-tank.

"Gulf countries fear damaging this relationship and seek to maintain Russian participation in OPEC+... If Russia left the group, the entire agreement would probably collapse."

Despite calls by some major oil importers for crude producers to boost supply and help stabilise soaring prices, Riyadh, the world's top exporter, has shown no interest.

"Staying silent on Russian action in Ukraine is probably the best course for this at the moment," Wald said.

"But this pragmatic stance may become untenable if pressed on their position by Western leaders."

mah/th/hc/hkb

UKRAINE WHEAT BASKET OF THE WORLD
Arabs fear for wheat supplies after Russia invades Ukraine




Wheat groats are milled during the preparation of bulgur in the Lebanese town of Marjayoun (AFP/JOSEPH EID)

Sarah Benhaida
Sat, February 26, 2022

Russia's invasion of Ukraine could mean less bread on the table in Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere in the Arab world where millions already struggle to survive.

The region is heavily dependent on wheat supplies from the two countries which are now at war, and any shortages of the staple food have potential to bring unrest.

If those supplies are disrupted, "the Ukraine crisis could trigger renewed protests and instability" in several Middle East and North Africa countries, the Washington-based Middle East Institute said.

The generals now ruling in Khartoum after an October coup have not forgotten: In 2019 one of their own, Field Marshall Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's longtime autocrat, was toppled by his military under pressure from mass demonstrations triggered by a tripling of the bread price.

Sudan is already facing regular anti-coup protests but seems to have taken the initiative to avoid demonstrations over bread.

When Russia's invasion began on Thursday, the second-highest figure in Sudan's ruling Sovereign Council was in Moscow to discuss trade ties.

Bread is already a luxury for millions in Yemen, where a seven-year war has pushed the country to the brink of famine.

"Most people can barely afford the basic foods," and the war in Ukraine will only "make things worse", Walid Salah, 35, a civil servant in the rebel-held capital Sanaa, told AFP.

Russia is the world's top wheat exporter and Ukraine the fourth, according to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture.

Moscow's invasion pushed the wheat price far above its previous record high in European trading to 344 euros ($384) a tonne on Thursday.

David Beasley, the World Food Programme's executive director, said the Ukraine-Russia area provides half the agency's grains. The war, he said, "is going to have a dramatic impact".

- 'Supplies won't last' -

WFP says 12.4 million people in conflict-ravaged Syria are also struggling with food insecurity.

Before its civil war began in 2011, Syria produced enough wheat to feed its population but harvests then plunged and led to increased reliance on imports.

The Damascus regime is a staunch ally of Moscow which backed it militarily during the war.

"Syria imported some 1.5 million tonnes of wheat last year, largely from Russia," The Syria Report, an economic publication, said this month.

Damascus says it is now working to distribute the stocks to use them over two months.

Supplies in neighbouring Lebanon won't last that long.

The country is gripped by a financial crisis which has left more than 80 percent of the population in poverty, and a 2020 port explosion damaged large parts of Beirut including silos containing 45,000 tonnes of grain.

Lebanon's current stock, in addition to five ships from Ukraine waiting to be offloaded, "can only last for one month and a half", said Ahmad Hoteit, the representative of Lebanon's wheat importers.

Ukraine was the source of 80 percent of the 600,000 to 650,000 tonnes of wheat imported annually by Lebanon, which has only been able to store about a month's worth of wheat since the port blast, he told AFP.

The United States can be an alternate supplier but shipments could take up to 25 days instead of seven, Hoteit said.

In the Maghreb, where wheat is the basis for couscous as well as bread, Morocco's minister in charge of budget, Fouzi Lekjaa, told journalists the government would increase subsidies on flour to $400 million this year and stop charging import duties on wheat.

Nearby Tunisia, with heavy debts and limited currency reserves, doesn't have that luxury. In December, local media reported that ships delivering wheat had refused to unload their cargo as they had not been paid.

Tunisia relies on Ukrainian and Russian imports for 60 percent of its total wheat consumption, according to agriculture ministry expert Abdelhalim Gasmi. He said current stocks are sufficient until June.

- 'Bread riots' -

Neighbouring Algeria, which says it has a six-month supply, is Africa's second-largest wheat consumer and the world's fifth-largest cereals importer.

Egypt imports the most wheat in the world and is Russia's second-largest customer. It bought 3.5 million tonnes in mid-January, according to S&P Global.

The Arab world's most populous country has started to buy elsewhere, particularly Romania, but 80 percent of its imports have come from Russia and Ukraine.

Egypt still has nine months of stock to feed its more than 100 million people, government spokesman Nader Saad said. But he added: "We will no longer be able to buy at the price before the crisis."

That is an ominous sign for the 70 percent of the population who receive five subsidised breads a day.

The weight of the subsidised round food was reduced in 2020 and now the government is considering raising the price -- fixed at five piastres (0.3 cents) for the past three decades -- to get closer to the production cost.

When then-president Anwar Sadat tried to drop the subsidy on bread in January 1977 "bread riots" erupted. They stopped when he cancelled the increase.

burs-sbh/it/dv

'We cannot go home': First Ukrainian refugees arrive in Germany



Germany, which in 2015 took in more than a million migrants has pledged to "provide massive help" should there be a large-scale influx of Ukrainian refugees 

(AFP/John MACDOUGALL)

Hui Min NEO
Sat, February 26, 2022, 

Svetlana Z. knew it was time to flee when she noticed that planes were no longer taking off or landing at the airport near their house in the north-eastern Ukrainian town of Kharkiv.

"It was intuition. When the planes stopped flying, we knew it was the start of something bad," she told AFP, holding her two-and-a-half-year-old son close while the family of three waited for Berlin authorities to process their registration.

That fateful day -- Tuesday -- they packed up a few bags of essentials, and piled into their "old car" and headed westwards.

Less than 48 hours later, Russian President Vladimir Putin unleashed a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"There was no accommodation in the west, in Lyiv," Svetlana said, so they kept driving, first crossing into Poland before finally arriving in Berlin on Friday.

Asked why they did not remain in Poland which is closer to home, she burst into tears, saying: "We cannot go home."

They are in constant contact with loved ones back in Ukraine, but "there is only bad news now".

Her family counts among dozens of first refugees arriving in Europe's biggest economy from Ukraine.

Germany, which in 2015 took in more than a million migrants -- many fleeing war in Syria and Iraq -- has pledged to "provide massive help" should there be a large-scale influx in neighbouring nations of Ukrainian refugees.

- 'Palpable bewilderment' -

So far the numbers of new arrivals are small.

"We have had about 75 Ukrainians today. But we're expecting far more in the coming days," Sascha Langenbach, spokesman for Berlin city's refugee affairs office, told AFP.

"They haven't been so emotional such that we always see tears, but their bewilderment at what is happening in their homeland is almost palpable," he said.

At the Berlin reception centre, officials had readied 1,300 beds, with capacity to be doubled in the next days.

Staffing has also been boosted with Ukrainian or Russian speakers.

Small groups of people seeking aid were arriving, some accompanied by relatives or friends living in Berlin, others like Svetlana's family had found their way themselves.

The usual procedure is for officials to register the asylum seekers and then allocate them beds for the first few nights at the reception centre, before a more permanent home is found for them.

But officials at the Berlin centre were advising Ukrainians who have relatives or friends in town to stay with them at least through the weekend as they expect the government to decide on a simplified asylum process for Ukrainians in the next days.

The eased procedure should allow Ukrainian asylum seekers to find work quickly, or to head directly to other parts of Germany where they may have relatives, rather than be bound to remain in the city where they first file for asylum.

"That would make it far easier for them to find their feet here," said Langenbach, adding that his office was expecting a decision "after the weekend".

- No one asked them -

Tattoo artist Dmitry Chevniev, 39, was among those who have opted to hold off from registering officially pending the decision.

Chevniev had found himself stranded in the German capital.

"I arrived two weeks ago to visit friends, and now I can't go home," he said.

His wife and their four-year-old are in Russia visiting his mother-in-law, he said, adding that he had come to the registration centre to find out what he could do to bring them over.

Stanislav Shalamai, 26, meanwhile was relieved to be given a bed for the night at the centre.

He had left Kyiv on February 15 as war had been predicted to begin around then.

"I was nervous about that so I took my stuff and left."

Carrying a dufflebag and a duvet, he took a bus from Kyiv to Warsaw before getting on another bus to Berlin.

Shalamai said he still found it hard to believe the turn of events.

"40 million Ukrainians live there, no one asked them what they want and some other army just came and started shooting at people and killing people," he said.

Shalamai said he had asked his parents to flee with him, but "they said we were born here, we lived here all our life, and we just don't want to leave."

"I don't know what is waiting for me here... I don't know what will be in Ukraine. I will have to see," Shalamai said.

Exodus from Ukraine: A night spent with civilians fleeing Russia's invasion

Thousands of Ukrainian civilians have been fleeing the Russian invasion since Thursday and are trying to reach neighbouring Poland. The chaotic evacuation, with dozens of kilometres of traffic jams on the Ukrainian side, foreshadows a large-scale humanitarian crisis. Mehdi Chebil, FRANCE 24’s correspondent on the ground, reports.

State-of-the-art SUVs, prehistoric Ladas, family cars... hundreds of vehicles belonging to Ukrainians of all social classes crawled along Thursday evening, bumper to bumper, for about 30 kilometres before the Polish border. As night fell, silhouettes of haggard pedestrians walking on the side of the road stood out amid the smoke of exhaust pipes.

The giant traffic jam between Lviv, the main city in western Ukraine, and the border with the European Union, which has been growing longer by the hour, is the most tangible sign of the exodus of Ukrainian civilians fleeing the Russian invasion. And it is only the beginning: The UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) estimated on Friday that up to 4 million people may flee to other countries if the situation escalates.

“We left last night, but as the bus could no longer move, we walked 20 kilometres,” Sofia, a young mother from Chortkiv, told FRANCE 24.

Passage through the Ukrainian border post trickled while thousands of people kept arriving.

Most of the people still appear to be in shock.

“We saw planes and missiles hitting a military depot 15 kilometres from our home. It was total panic. How do you explain to the children that you have to urgently leave the house?” Sofia exclaimed, her face drawn, as she pulled a wool blanket over the shoulders of the two young children travelling with her.

Around her, women and children outnumbered the men. “Men aged 18 to 60 have been called up to the war and there are several checkpoints along the road to prevent them from fleeing,” added the young woman, whose husband lives in Poland.

A significant proportion of the men gathered in front of the border post were indeed foreigners. FRANCE 24 spoke to Algerian, Congolese, Nigerian and Indian refugees waiting to cross the border.

“I feel sorry for the Ukrainians because they’re really lovely people. We’re foreigners and we’re not leaving anything behind. They’re forced to leave their homes,” said Karim, a 28-year-old Algerian man working in finance. Karim left Kyiv with his partner after spending harrowing hours sheltering underground in the metro to escape the bombardments.



Most of the thousands of refugees do not have tents or sleeping bags, as they did not plan to spend the night outdoors. Those with a car can leave the engine running for heat, as long as they don’t run out of gas. Thursday evening, no humanitarian organisations were seen on the Ukrainian side of the border. Unless the crossing opens widely soon, the situation of civilians fleeing the fighting could deteriorate very quickly.

What these companions in misfortune at the border do have is a strong sense of solidarity. “When I see children who are hungry, cold and crying, I can't just stand by. I made three round trips between Lviv, Lutsk and the border, volunteering to transport people,” said Anatoly, an Israeli-Ukrainian entrepreneur working in agricultural equipment. A stock of cigarettes and energy drinks has kept the 23-year-old going with minimal sleep.

“The Russian army is very strong, it’s the second or third most powerful army in the world. But Putin will never be able to impose a new regime in the country in the long term, because the Ukrainians love their freedom too much,” Anatoly said as he got in the car to head back to Lviv.

He drove slowly along the interminable traffic jam leading the other way toward the border, when he saw two frail figures sticking their thumbs out on the side of the road: Two teenagers, a brother and sister, who decided to turn back to avoid spending the night outdoors.

Anatoly dropped them off at a gas station. Like thousands of other civilians, they would resume their exodus at sunrise the next day.

Video: Shelling breaks out in east Ukraine as West and Moscow dispute troop moves (France 24)

PHOTOS © Mehdi Chebil

Greeks protest at soaring cost of living


Ten thousand demonstrators led by Communist-affiliated union PAME rallied outside parliament against spiking inflation 

(AFP/Louisa GOULIAMAKI)

Hélène COLLIOPOULOU
Sat, February 26, 2022

Thousands of Greeks on Saturday joined union protests in several cities against a steep rise in the cost of living as the government vowed to boost emergency support for households.

In Athens, police said some 10,000 demonstrators led by Communist-affiliated union PAME gathered outside parliament to protest spiking inflation and a new labour law increasing working hour flexibility.

"We are a river of anger and outrage," said steel unionist Panagiotis Doukas.

"We claim our right to a respectable life... we say a thunderous 'no' to the anti-popular policies that have torn apart our lives," he said.

Greek inflation in January surged to 6.2 percent in an annual comparison amid fears Russia's invasion of Ukraine will further push up energy and food prices.

According to official data, electricity prices in January jumped by 56 percent, fuel by 21.6 percent and natural gas by a whopping 156 percent.

The cost of living "could on average increase by over two percent in 2022," Panagiotis Petrakis, a professor of economics at the University of Athens, told AFP.

The government has already spent 44 billion euros ($50 billion) in supporting businesses and low-income households during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Late Friday, Finance Minister Christos Staikouras said Greece would conclude an early repayment of bailout loans from the International Monetary Fund and use the interest rate savings "to support households and businesses".

The last tranche of IMF loans extended to Greece during the 2010-2018 debt crisis, worth 1.85 billion euros, is to be repaid by April, a source with knowledge of the issue told AFP this week.

Greece is aiming for 4.5-percent economic growth this year and expects additional revenue from the vital tourism industry.

Tourism accounts for around a quarter of the Greek economy. Receipts in 2021 stood at over 10 billion euros.

- Jobless rate 13 percent -

But Greece is also saddled with an unemployment rate of around 13 percent, one of the highest in the eurozone, a legacy of the near-decade debt crisis.

The pandemic struck just as Greece was beginning to recover from the crisis that saw it lose a quarter of national output.

In 2020, the Greek economy shrank nine percent.

People at risk of poverty or social exclusion in Greece are estimated at 28.9 percent, just behind fellow EU laggards Bulgaria and Romania according to the Hellenic Anti-Poverty Network group.

The group found that in 2020, 44.6 percent of households struggled to pay rent or mortgage instalments, while 16.7 percent had inadequate heating.

According to Nikos Vettas, general director of the industry think-tank IOVE, the Greek government faces economic challenges despite a strong showing in tourism and exports in 2021.

The main opposition Syriza party is demanding additional social welfare after criticising the government for allocating six billion euros to a recent purchase of French warplanes and frigates.

lg-hec-jph/bp

Bosnians head abroad or despair at home amid secession threats




For months, tensions have been soaring amid renewed talks of secession from Serb leader Milorad Dodik, stoking fears Bosnia is on the cusp of renewed conflict 

(AFP/ELVIS BARUKCIC)


Rusmir SMAJILHODZIC, David STOUT
Thu, February 24, 2022

Disgusted with corruption and power-hungry politicians, Nebojsa Kalamanda is already planning his exit from Bosnia, leaving behind a broken political system and a stagnant economy.

The 21-year-old computer science student living in Banja Luka -- the headquarters of Bosnia's Serb 'entity' -- says he hopes to move to Switzerland after finishing university, citing the increasingly fractious political landscape at home as a motivating factor to relocate elsewhere.

"The insecurity is the main reason," Kalamanda tells AFP. "I don't trust politicians. All their promises are lies."


For months, tensions have been soaring thanks largely to the renewed talk of secession from Serb leader Milorad Dodik, stoking fears Bosnia is on the cusp of fresh conflict.

The one-time Western protege turned hardline nationalist has threatened withdraw the Serb entity -- the Republic of Srpska (RS) -- from central institutions including Bosnia's army, judiciary and tax system.

The dramatic moves by Dodik are stirring anxiety that his plans, if executed, could undermine the peace accords that ended years of fighting in the 1990s that saw nearly 100,000 killed.

For nearly three decades, Bosnia has been suffering from a perennial malaise. The end of the war effectively saw the country split in two -- with one half ruled by ethnic Serbs and the other a Muslim-Croat federation.

A dizzying bureaucracy links the two sides in a central state that has prevented a return to intercommunal violence but has also kept Bosnia in a state of near political paralysis that has pushed people abroad, en masse.

With elections in October, Dodik has set his sights on picking apart the status quo, sparking worries his brinkmanship, likely aimed at attracting votes, may spiral out of control.

"This situation scares me. I want to advise young people to leave here," says Milivoj Majstorovic, a 66-year-old retiree in Banja Luka.

- 'They will never come back' -

Dodik's aggressive moves earned him fresh sanctions from Washington in January over "destabilising corrupt activities".

For many, fears another war will break out have often been overshadowed by Bosnia's listless economy.

A United Nations Population Fund report found around 200,000 Bosnians have left the country of 3.5 million since 2011.

Many of the exiles were young, who pointed to "social and political insecurity, unemployment, poor education" as their reasons for leaving.

Other surveys suggest the number of departures might be twice as high.

"Unfortunately I think they will never come back," says Stefan Blagic from Restart Srpska, a Banja Luka-based advocacy organisation focused on corruption.

Blagic says the mass migration plays into the hands of the entrenched political establishment of all the ethnic parties by pushing away educated but dissatisfied Bosnians and leaving behind those who depend on the country's ruling class for survival.

"We don't have an opposition when the opposition leaves," says Blagic.

Further south in the streets of the capital Sarajevo, despair is rife among people who remember the cosmopolitan life that was common before the war.

"Of course we are afraid of a new conflict," says Jasminka Kurilic, a 66-year-old retired doctor who is in a mixed marriage.

She believes her children are paying a price for what was once common in then Yugoslavia, saying their daughter struggled to find a job in the deeply partitioned country due to her mixed background -- with many positions often awarded on an ethnic basis.

"We should be able to live anywhere in this country, regardless of our name. If we can go and live in Germany, why can't we live here together?" Kurilic asks.

-'Not easy'-

At the People's Kitchen in Sarajevo -- a soup kitchen that opened at the beginning of the war and has yet to close its doors -- hundreds a day come for meals as they struggle to make ends meet.

"In the past years, we didn't have young people. Now we have young people," says Adala Hasovic, 32, who helps manage operations at the kitchen. "It's not easy in Bosnia."

For those with the means, a life abroad with an uncertain future looks better than continuing to stagnate at home.

"So many years have passed since the war and there is no progress," says Sejo, a 35-year-old father of two, who was applying for a work visa in Austria and asked to use only his first name.

"We are not guaranteed work, we are not guaranteed a future, we have no security," he adds.

Meanwhile, Dodik insists he has no wish to ignite a new conflict, calling the situation in Bosnia "stable".

"Nobody talks about war and other nonsense in Bosnia anymore," said Dodik during a speech on Monday.

And while Dodik may be quick to dismiss concerns about the potential for violence, others argue that ignoring the warning signs puts the country at peril.

"You can't help but feel scared of what can happen next," says Ivana Korajlic from Transparency International in Banja Luka.

"We didn't take some of the things seriously back in the 1990s but they led to war and bloodshed."

rus-ev-ds/bp

COVER UP ANOTHER CELIBACY FAILURE

Germany: Catholic priest convicted for abusing girls

A priest who abused children and adolescents over many years has been handed a 12-year jail sentence by a Cologne court.

 The archdiocese where he worked has denied any responsibility.

The Catholic Church has been facing a wave of abuse allegations against many priests

A  court in the western German city of Cologne on Friday convicted a Catholic priest of sexually abusing children in cases spanning many years, sentencing him to 12 years in prison.

The priest was also ordered to pay three co-plaintiffs in the cases damages totaling €50,000 ($56,000).

The conviction comes as the German Catholic Church is under intense scrutiny after revelations of decades of sexual abuse of children and misconduct toward minors by church employees, including in the Cologne Archdiocese. 

The church is seen by many to have abused its position of power by covering up abuse by priests

What was the priest convicted of?

The 70-year-old priest faced an original indictment alleging 118 cases of abuse, with the youngest victim a 9-year-old girl.

Other victims came forward over the course of the trial, which led to the charges being extended. The priest was also remanded in custody because the court saw a danger that he would reoffend.

One victim was a girl who complained of homesickness at a holiday camp and another a girl to whom he was supposedly giving anger therapy.

The priest forced his victims to engage in a number of sexual acts, including intercourse.

Watch video02:39 Sexual Abuse: Benedict under pressure

How have church authorities acted?

The Cologne Archdiocese came under criticism during the trial after it became apparent that the priest had repeatedly been allowed to be alone with children even though leading members were seemingly made aware of allegations and rumors surrounding his behavior.

An initial investigation into the allegations was shelved because the priest's nieces withdrew testimony against him. The archdiocese paid the priest's legal fees for that probe.  

During the present trial, archdiocese officials denied any responsibility for the abuse.

"We have acted consistently," said Stefan Hesse, the archbishop of Hamburg and former head of personnel in Cologne, in his testimony.

Watch video 26:01 The Catholic Church: Power and abuse of power?

tj/msh (AP, AFP)

El Salvador: Ex-president charged over priest killings in 1989

Former President Alfredo Cristiani has been charged in a case that has been pursued by prosecutors for years. Six Jesuit priests were killed in 1989 for being critics of the US-backed government during the civil war.

Alfredo Cristiani was president of El Salvador from 1989 to 1994

Former El Salvadorian President Alfredo Cristiani on Friday was charged in connection with the 1989 killing of six Jesuit priests.

Prosecutors also charged another dozen people, including former military officers.

The list of charges apparently ranges from murder and terrorism to conspiracy, according to The Associated Press news agency.

1989 massacre

On November 16, 1989, an elite commando unit killed six priests as well as their housekeeper and the housekeeper's daughter at their home at a university. Five of the priests were Spaniards and one was Salvadorian.

The soldiers tried to make it look like the killings were committed by leftist guerrillas.

One of the slain priests was Father Ignacio Ellacuria, who was a prominent critic of the US-backed right-wing government of El Salvador. He was also the rector at the university.

In September 2020, a Spanish court sentenced a former El Salvadorian army colonel to 133 years in prison for his role in the murder of the priests.

Case opened and closed many times

The case, one of the most notorious episodes in the country's civil war from 1980 to 1992, had been opened and closed several times over the course of the investigation.

In 2016, El Salvador's Supreme Court declared unconstitutional a 1993 law that prohibited the prosecution of crimes committed by the El Salvadorian military and leftist guerillas during the civil war. 

That meant prosecutors could investigate the atrocities and alleged war crimes committed during the bloody war, which killed around 75,000 people and left another 8,000 people missing.

In 2016, prosecutors detained former soldiers connected to the killing, arguing the priests had been targeted for criticizing the rights abuses committed by the US-backed army.

In 2018, a court reopened the investigation and named former President Alfredo Cristiani and six military officers as suspects in their investigation into the 1989 massacre.

In 2019, the investigation was once again put on hold when military officers filed an appeal in the Supreme Court.

In January, the Supreme Court ordered the reopening of the investigation, with Attorney General Rodolfo Delgado tweeting that his office was determined "to go after those accused of ordering this regrettable and tragic event."

rm/nm (Reuters, AP, EFE)