Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Ukraine destroys one of Russia’s biggest amphibious warships in Crimea

By James Kilner
December 27, 2023 —

Ukrainian fighter jets have destroyed a Russian warship docked at a port in occupied Crimea in an attack bearing the hallmarks of British Storm Shadow missiles.

Footage of the incident showed a fire and a huge explosion in the harbour at Feodosia at around 3am Ukraine time after the missiles struck the Novocherkassk, one of Russia’s biggest amphibious warships.


The Russian warship Novocherkassk burns at port in Feodosia, occupied Crimea, on December 27.
CREDIT:UKRAINE DEFENCE

In a rare move, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu personally told Vladimir Putin about the strike shortly before the Russian president greeted leaders from former Soviet states at a summit in St Petersburg.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “Shoigu reported about the strike that the Ukrainians carried out on Feodosia and about the damage to our large landing ship. It was a very detailed report.”

Four people were killed in the attack, according to Russia’s Emergencies Ministry.

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HI Sutton, an independent naval warfare analyst, published a photo of what he said was the smouldering wreck of the warship.

“Novocherkassk has sunk at the pier, [with] 99 per cent confidence,” he wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter.

The attack was “most likely” carried out with British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles, or their French equivalents, known as Scalps, he added.

The Ukrainian Defence Ministry also posted a photo of the burning ship, adding: “Ukrainian pilots did an excellent job. Crimea is Ukraine. There is no place for the occupier’s fleet here.”

In recent weeks, Ukraine has been under mounting pressure to show that it can take the fight to Russia despite losing ground along the frontline in its eastern Donbas region.

The strike on the Novocherkassk is its most destructive hit since September, when Storm Shadow missiles destroyed a submarine being repaired at the dry dock in the Black Sea peninsula’s port of Sevastopol.

Some European leaders are thought to be growing increasingly weary with the cost of supporting Kyiv after Ukraine failed to make significant gains against Russia over the summer during its NATO-backed counteroffensive.

But analysts said this was the seventh warship in Russia’s Black Sea Fleet that Ukraine has destroyed and British Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said the strike demonstrated that Ukraine could yet defeat Russia.


The Novocherkassk of the Russian Black Sea Fleet seen in Sevastopol.
 
CREDIT:AP

“The latest destruction of Putin’s navy demonstrates that those who believe there’s a stalemate in the Ukraine war are wrong,” he said. “They haven’t noticed that, over the past four months, 20 per cent of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been destroyed.”


Russia frequently uses its amphibious warships to transport military assets, and Ukrainian officials said the Novocherkassk was carrying Shahed drones from Iran when it was hit. Moscow has launched waves of aerial attacks on Ukraine using such units.


Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the Ukrainian air force for the successful missile strike and said the Novocherkassk had been sunk.

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“I am grateful to our air force for the impressive replenishment of the Russian underwater Black Sea fleet with another vessel,” he said.

The docks at Feodosia are located on the south-east shore of Crimea, near the 17-kilometre Kerch Bridge, which links the peninsula to the Russian mainland, and are mainly used to repair warships or to finish fitting out new vessels.

The 370-feet (112-metre) Novocherkassk was built in 1987 and is considered a vital part of the Black Sea Fleet because of its capacity to launch amphibious assaults.

Russian sources also confirmed that it was highly likely Ukraine had used either Storm Shadow or Scalp missiles in the attack. These are fired by Ukrainian fighter jets and have been used in several attacks since they were handed to Kyiv’s forces in May.
“Presumably, four British Storm Shadow air-to-ground missiles were fired at the large amphibious warship Novocherkassk from Su-24 fighter jets,” said Vladimir Rogoz, a senior pro-Kremlin official in occupied Ukraine. “Some of them hit the enemy’s target.”

Despite only having a small navy, Ukraine has registered a string of major military successes in the Black Sea.

It has recaptured the strategically important Snake Island near Odessa and has forced the Russian navy to move its main warships 320km away in Novorossiysk to escape its maritime drone and missile attacks.

The Kremlin has even started to build a new naval base in Abkhazia, a pro-Russia rebel region of Georgia 640km from Crimea.


Kremlin confirms Russian warship hit by Ukrainian strike

By AFP
December 26, 2023

This photograph posted on the Telegram channel @VentdeCrimee shows a warship damaged in a Ukrainian attack in Russian-controlled Crimea 
- Copyright KCNA VIA KNS/AFP STR

The Kremlin on Tuesday acknowledged a Ukrainian attack had damaged a warship in the occupied Crimean port of Feodosia in what Ukraine and its Western allies called a major setback for the Russian navy.

Ukraine said its air force destroyed the Novocherkassk landing ship, with President Volodymyr Zelensky joking on social media that the vessel had now joined “the Russian underwater Black Sea fleet”.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu informed “about the damage to our large landing ship” to President Vladimir Putin in “a very detailed report”, the president’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists.

Russia’s defence ministry said that the ship was damaged by guided aerial missiles.

Ukraine’s military said its air force destroyed the Russian naval ship in a missile attack on the eastern Crimean port.

The Ukrainian defence ministry wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that the “Novocherkassk landing ship was destroyed in Feodosia tonight”.

It published an unattributed photo showing flames and smoke in a port at night.

– Black Sea dominance –

“Ukraine’s aviation did an excellent job. Crimea is Ukraine. There is no place for the occupier’s fleet here,” the ministry wrote.

In his post on social media, Zelensky wrote: “The occupiers will not have a single peaceful place in Ukraine”.

The attack comes after Ukraine struck the Black Sea fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol in September, forcing Moscow to move warships to ports further east.

British defence minister Grant Shapps wrote on Twitter that “this latest destruction of Putin’s navy demonstrates that those who believe there’s a stalemate in the Ukraine war are wrong!”

“Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea is now challenged,” he added.

Ukraine nevertheless announced a setback on the eastern front Tuesday.

Commander-in-chief Valeriy Zaluzhny said that troops had pulled back in the town of Maryinka, which is close to the key Russian-held city of Donetsk.

He said troops were still present on the outskirts, after Russia on Monday claimed to fully control the town.

– Ship ‘transported Shaheds’ –

Ukraine’s air force said that its tactical aviation attacked the Novocherkassk with cruise missiles at around 0030 GMT in the area of Feodosia.

Videos posted on social media showed a fire on the horizon in a port area, followed by a loud explosion that sent up a ball of fire and was apparently followed by multiple explosions.

Ukraine’s armed forces said that “on board of the ship were Shahed drones that Russia uses for attacks on Ukrainian cities”.

Ukraine frequently carries out strikes in Crimea, particularly targeting the Russian military.

In April 2022, it sank the cruiser Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea fleet.

The Novocherkassk was previously used by Russia for its military intervention in Syria.

The governor of the Russian-annexed peninsula, Sergei Aksyonov, wrote on Telegram: “Sadly, one person was killed and two others were wounded in an enemy attack on Feodosia.”

Crimea’s Krym 24 television reported that two had been hospitalised in a moderately severe condition.

Aksyonov said earlier that the city’s port was cordoned off following “an enemy attack” that caused a “detonation” and fire.

Six buildings were damaged, mostly with broken windows, the governor said, and some local residents have been evacuated.


What Russian Black Sea Fleet ships were destroyed by Ukraine


A game of Battleship is unfolding in the Black Sea, where navy-less Ukraine, left to its own resorts against Russia’s menacing fleet, takes out ships one by one with a combination of missiles, drones, and ingenuity


BY ALYA SHANDRA
27/12/2023
Graph: Euromaidan Press, modifying @torger78/Twitter

Ukraine has just achieved its latest naval victory over Russia. On December 26, pilots of Ukraine’s Air Force destroyed the large Russian landing ship Novocherkassk in the port of Russian-occupied Feodosia in Crimea.

This became the 16th Russian ship that Ukraine destroyed or severely damaged since the full-blown invasion in 2022 (as per Ukraine’s Navy spokesman)– a remarkable achievement for a country without a fleet. Here we recall all the ships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet that Ukraine has struck with domestic, foreign missiles, as well as naval drones.
Russia planned a landing on the Odesa coast but retreated from occupied Crimea

Despite lacking a full-fledged navy, Ukraine has managed to curtail the Russian Black Sea Fleet and shift the balance of power in the Black Sea using assymetrical methods.

Having no powerful surface ships or submarines, posessing only a small number of its own anti-ship missiles, American Harpoons, SCALP and Storm Shadows, as well as and developing agile surface drones, Ukraine managed to take down some of Russia’s largest flagships.

In 2022, the Russian Black Sea Fleet command entered into full-scale war with Ukraine, planning assaults, breakthroughs into the Odesa roadstead, coastal operations and flank supplies for advancing troops.

To achieve this, on the eve of the invasion in February, Russia relocated six large landing ships from the Baltic and Northern fleets, as well as missile submarines, missile cruisers, and missile frigates to the Mediterranean and Black Sea areas from its Pacific fleet.

However, delivering naval assaults on Ukraine turned out to be no walk in the park.

The Black Sea Fleet of Russia has suffered losses of ships from Ukrainian drone strikes at sea, Tochka U missile hits in Berdiansk, and the famous case of the flagship cruiser Moskva being sunk by Ukrainian Neptune anti-ship missiles according to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. Hits from Harpoon missiles, an underwater drone attack, and an airstrike that likely used land-attack Neptunes at the Saki airbase have also occurred.

Aviation losses include a Su-24 bomber downed while laying mines far from shore, a Su-30SM naval aviation jet shot down near Mykolaiv, and a Su-34 struck near Odesa.

While landings are now out of the question and launches of Kalibr cruise missiles have become rare, Russia’s main naval threat to Ukraine is now to slowly suffocate its economy by blocking exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports, denying merchant vessels the freedom of navigation.

Ukraine acts alone, destroys Russian ships one by one

In this situation, which NATO countries chose to ignore, Ukraine saw no other option than to act alone and destroy Russian ships one by one to unblock its ports, according to Former Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk.

This strategy has led to success. Kyrylo Danylchenko, BBC’s military reviewer for Ukraine, believes that the realization that they can end physically led the Black Sea Fleet to clear routes near occupied Crimea’s Sevastopol of mines and decide to relocate ships to Russia’s Novorossiysk, leading to logistical hurdles for its missile attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and breaking Russia’s naval blockade of Odesa.

While the threat of landings seems reduced by Neptunes and Harpoons, the main issue for Ukraine at sea is the blockade of Black Sea ports, Danylchenko said. The temporary grain corridor that Ukraine is promoting despite Russia’s wirthdrawal from a deal to allow exports of Ukrainian grain eased the fire. However, shipping insurance, war risk premiums, and “demurrage” endured by shipowners still make maritime logistics to Ukrainian ports much more expensive.

Further control of sea lanes, expanding transshipment through the Danube, preventing inspection of merchant vessels far from shore, receiving more patrol boats and mine hunters will be key for Ukraine.
Legend:

Destroyed or seriously damaged

Damaged

March 2022

The small missile corvette Velikiy Ustyug was disabled, likely damaged during an attack on 7 March 2022.The P-342 patrol boat Oleg Shipitsin was hit by an anti-tank missile system in the Sea of Azov on 20 March.On 24 March, the large landing ship Saratov was destroyed by the Ukrainian armed forces in the occupied city of Berdiansk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast with a Tochka-U missile.The same strike damaged the large landing ship Novocherkassk in Berdiansk. Three crew members were reported dead.As well, it damaged the large landing ship Caesar Kunikov. The ship’s captain was reported dead.

April 2022On 14 April, the Ukrainian military struck the Russian frigate Admiral Essen near the shore of Odesa using Grad missiles.Russia lost its third-largest naval vessel, the Russian flagship missile cruiser Moskva, on 13 April when Ukraine struck it with Neptune missiles. A fire broke out and the ship began to sink. The Russian Defense Ministry officially acknowledged 27 missing and 17 dead crew members.

Russian missile cruiser Moskva in 2012. Photo: Mil.ru


May 2022

On 2 May, patrol corvette P-342 Yunarmeets Baltiki was sunk by a Bayraktar combat drone near Zmiinyi Island.

In the next five days, Bayraktars also hit:landing boat D-310landing boat D-144patrol boats P-275patrol boat P-276patrol boat P-281 “Maksym Panin.”On 12 May, Ukraine hit the multi-purpose auxiliary vessel Vsevolod Bobrov with a Neptune missile, after which a fire erupted. According to media reports, the ship was carrying reinforcements to Zmiinyi Island, including anti-aircraft missile systems. The damaged ship was towed to Sevastopol.
June 2022Ukrainian defenders sunk the Russian SB-739 rescue tug Vasiliy Bekh with Harpoon missiles in the Black Sea. Although small, the tug was crucial: it brought reinforcements to Zmiinyi Island and had an anti-aircraft missile system on deck.

According to maritime expert Andriy Klymenko, this enabled Ukraine’s fire control and eventually led to the liberation of Zmiinyi Island. It from this small yet crucial island in the Black Sea that the Russians controlled shipping routes in the Black Sea. It was Zmiinyi Island’s liberation that enabled the functioning of the grain corridor, a UN-brokered deal for Ukrainian grain exports to the Global South via the Black Sea ports, Klymenko says. “There would have been no grain corridor if the Russians had stayed on Zmiinyi,”

October 2022

On 29 October 2022, Ukraine carried out a surface and aeriadrone attack on the Russian Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol Bay. As a result, two ships were put out of service:The Admiral Makarov guard frigate fleet flagshipThe Ivan Golubets marine minesweeper

Analysts considered the attack to be of great importance, on par with the sinkage of flagship Moskva. The drone attack in October 2022 reportedly led to a decrease in the activity of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

May 2023

The Ivan Khurs medium reconnaissance ship was severely damaged in the Black Sea after a naval drone attack on 25 May 140 km away from the Bosphorous strait.
August 2023On 4 August, the large landing ship Olenegorskiy Gornyak was hit by naval drones in Novorossiysk Bay (Russia). It was reportedly the result of a joint operation by Ukraine’s Security Service and the Navy.The next day, a drone attacked the Russian oil tanker SIG in the Black Sea, which carried fuel for the Syrian group of Russian Navy ships.

A Ukrainian maritime kamikaze drone on the way to a Russian warship. 
Credit: SBU via Ukrainska Pravda.

September 2023

On 3 September, Ukraine destroyed a Russian KS-701 “Tunets“ type patrol boat in the Black Sea with a Bayraktar combat drone.

On 13 September, the large landing ship Minsk was destroyed by an attack on a ship repair plant in Sevastopol, the OSINT project Oryx confirmed analyzing visual data. The attack was presumably carried out by Ukrainian aircraft with Storm Shadow missiles.
The B-237 submarine Rostov-on-Don was severely damaged in the same attack.
Also on 13 September, Ukraine destroyed a Russian KS-701 “Tunets“ type patrol boat in the Black Sea.On 14 September, the Samum small missile hovercraft was hit by the Ukrainian drone Sea Baby.

Also on 14 September, Ukraine’s defense forces targeted two Russian patrol ships in the southwestern part of the Black Sea. At least one of the ships, Sergey Kotov patrol corvette, suffered damage from maritime drones.

The coordinated attack of 13-14 September was part of a Ukrainian effort to destroy air defenses in Crimea. Following it, Russia relocated three landing ships to the Azov Sea.

Russian landing ship Minsk and submarine Rostov-on-Don on fire after the 13 September Ukrainian attack on Sevastopol. Photo from open sources


October 2023

On 11 and 13 October, the Pavel Derzhavin patrol corvette was damaged in the Black Sea near occupied Sevastopol.Also on 13 October, the SB-565 rescue tug Professor Nikolai Muru was attacked by a marine drone with experimental weapons.
November 2023The Askold small missile corvette was hit on 5 November in a Ukrainian missile strike on the Zaliv shipyard in Kerch, reportedly with SCALP missiles. The central part of the Askold corvette’s hull, where 8 vertical launch installations were located to launch Kalibr and/or P-800 Oniks cruise missiles, was hit. This destroyed the main weapon system of this ship.On 9-10 November, Ukrainian forces hit minimum two Serna-class amphibious assault ships, with the Russian Navy’s designation Project 11770, in occupied Crimea.

Russia’s Askold missile carrier showing signs of damage from Ukraine’s missile strike on 4 November 2023. 
Photo: Facebook/AFU StratCom


December 2023

The Novocherkassk large landing ship was destroyed in the night before December 26. The Air Force reported that the Novocherkassk large landing ship was attacked with cruise missiles from tactical aviation around 02:30 with Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles. The Novocherkassk is designed to land amphibious assaults on unequipped coastlines and transport troops and cargo by sea. It is capable of transporting various types of armored vehicles, including tanks
.
Fire in the port of Feodosia, occupied Crimea, in the early hours of 26 December 2023.
Photo via Twitter/loogunda.

Related: 
Ukraine’s innovative naval tactics shifted balance of power despite lack of warships
Official: Russian ships pushed back 185 km from Ukrainian coast
How Ukraine’s scrappy marine drones are revolutionizing naval warfare
Drone developer: “Even if only one out of ten marine drones reaches the target, this is a very successful case”

 Looking for water in Yemen. Photo Credit: Tasnim News Agency

UN Envoy Welcomes ‘Significant Step’ Towards Ceasefire In Yemen


By 

The UN Special Envoy for Yemen has welcomed steps towards a ceasefire in the war-torn country, where Government forces, backed by a Saudi-led coalition, and Houthi rebels have been fighting for more than eight years.

The development follows a series of meetings with the sides held in Riyadh and Muscat, his office said in a statement on Saturday.

Special Envoy Hans Grundberg welcomed the parties’ commitment to a set of measures to implement a nation-wide ceasefire, improve living conditions, and engage in preparations for the resumption of an inclusive political process under UN auspices.

“Thirty million Yemenis are watching and waiting for this new opportunity to provide for tangible results and progress towards lasting peace,” he said.

“The parties have taken a significant step. Their commitments are, first and foremost, an obligation to the Yemeni people to progress towards a future that meets the legitimate aspirations of all Yemenis,” he added.

Roadmap and restraint

Mr. Grundberg will now engage with the parties to establish a roadmap under UN auspices that includes these commitments and supports their implementation

The UN roadmap will include, among other elements, the parties’ commitment to implement a nationwide ceasefire, pay all public sector salaries, resume oil exports, open roads in Taiz and other parts of Yemen, and further ease restrictions on Sana’a Airport and the Hudaydah port, according to the statement.

The roadmap will also establish implementation mechanisms and prepare for a Yemeni-owned political process under UN auspices.

Mr. Grundberg expressed deep appreciation for the key roles played by Saudi Arabia and Oman in supporting the parties to reach this point.

He urged all sides to exercise maximum restraint at this critical time to allow for a conducive environment for dialogue and the successful conclusion of agreement on the roadmap.

“The parties have taken a significant step. Their commitments are, first and foremost, an obligation to the Yemeni people to progress towards a future that meets the legitimate aspirations of all Yemenis,” he said, adding that “we are ready to accompany them on every step of the way.”

Looking for water in Yemen. Photo Credit: Tasnim News Agency

 Soldier Map Middle East Army War Military Weapon

Iraq Objects To US Strikes That Killed 1, Wounded 18


By 

Iraq condemned on Tuesday U.S. airstrikes on Iraqi territory, calling them a “hostile act” and a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty. 

U.S. forces carried out the strikes Monday and targeted Iran-backed militias in Iraq in response to a drone attack earlier that day that injured three U.S. service members. 

The U.S. strikes killed one member of its security forces, Iraq said Tuesday, and wounded 18 other people, including civilians, according to news reports. 

The government called the U.S. strikes “an unacceptable violation of Iraqi sovereignty,” a government statement said. The statement also stressed that similar attacks by armed groups on U.S-led coalition advisers are hostile acts and violate Iraqi sovereignty, a position Kataib Hezbollah criticized.

“We warn those with weak souls, from the highest level to the lowest, not to test our patience,” said Abu Ali al-Askari, a security official with the faction.

A barrage of rockets was fired later Tuesday morning at U.S. and allied forces at Al-Shaddadi, an American patrol base in Syria, a U.S. military official said. There was no damage or casualties, the official said.

Monday’s U.S. strikes were directed at three locations used by Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement. The U.S. considers Kataib Hezbollah a terrorist organization.

“These precision strikes are a response to a series of attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-sponsored militias, including an attack by Iran-affiliated Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups on Irbil Air Base earlier today, and intended to disrupt and degrade capabilities of the Iran-aligned militia groups directly responsible.” 

National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said Kataib Hezbollah, as part of an umbrella group of Iran-backed militants, claimed credit for the Monday attack and that one of the U.S. service members was critically hurt. 

U.S. and coalition forces have operated in the region as part of the mission to counter the Islamic State group in Iraq and Syria. 

Those forces have come under repeated attacks by Iranian-backed proxies, with about 100 attacks coming since Israel launched its offensive to eliminate the militant group Hamas in the Gaza Strip. 

The U.S. military has said it disrupted most of those attacks, or that they fell short of their targets causing no damage. But several, like Monday’s, have injured U.S. military personnel. 

Previous retaliatory strikes have targeted Kataib Hezbollah and other groups, including U.S. strikes in November.

VOA

The VOA is the Voice of America

 Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Photo Credit: Presidential Executive Office of Russia

Russia Accuses West Of Fomenting Trouble In Serbia


By 

(EurActiv) — Russia said on Monday (25 December) foreign-backed forces were trying to foment trouble in Serbia, where protests continue for a second week after an election earlier this month that international monitors said was unfair.

“There are processes and attempts by third forces, including from abroad, to provoke such unrest in Belgrade,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. “We have no doubt that the leadership of the republic will ensure the rule of law.”

Several thousand people gathered in front of the central election commission building in Belgrade on Monday. The protesters marched to the main police station where they believed those detained by police were being held.

Earlier in the day, police said 38 people had been detained during and after an opposition protest over election results on Sunday. The police said eight policemen were injured in clashes.

Protesters on Sunday broke windows and glass at the main entrance of the town hall, before police used pepper spray to disperse them around 10 p.m. (2100 GMT).

Ivica Ivković, head of the police administration, said two of the eight wounded policemen sustained serious injuries.

“We will continue to work to maintain peace and order and we expect to see more arrests in relation to protests last night,” Ivković told a news conference.

The opposition parties accused police of excessive force, and some social networks showed footage of policemen beating up men in streets near the town hall.

Russian help

Outgoing Prime Minister Ana Brnabić thanked the Russian secret service for providing information on planned activities by the opposition. “This (my statement) is not going to be popular in the West,” Brnabić, of the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), said on Serbian television.

A European Union candidate, Serbia has resisted pressure by Western countries to introduce sanctions against Russia.

Moscow has been one of Serbia’s closest allies for decades, especially after 1999 when Russia opposed the NATO airstrikes against rump Yugoslavia that comprised Serbia and Montenegro.

An international monitoring mission last Monday said the SNS gained an unfair advantage through media bias, the improper influence of President Aleksandar Vučić and voting irregularities such as vote buying.

Serbian authorities deny any irregularities.

Vučić on 21 December accused an “important country” of interfering in the country’s elections, following a torrent of international condemnation of alleged irregularities during the weekend’s contest.

The populist ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won 46.72% of the votes in the 17 December snap parliamentary election, according to state election commission preliminary results.

Serbia Against Violence came second in the election with 23.56% of the vote, and the Socialist Party of Serbia third with 6.56%.

Germany on 18 December condemned reported irregularities in Serbian elections as “unacceptable” for a candidate to join the European Union.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. Photo Credit: Presidential Executive Office of Russia



EurActiv publishes free, independent policy news and facilitates open policy debates in 12 languages.

Indonesia’s Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto Widens Lead In Presidential Race, Survey Shows


By Nazarudin Latif

Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto and his running mate widened their lead in the 2024 presidential race, a new poll held after the candidates’ first televised debates showed.

Prabowo and his vice presidential pick, the Indonesian president’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, got 46.7% of the vote in the survey conducted by Indikator Politik over the weekend.

The ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle’s presidential nominee, former Central Java Gov. Ganjar Pranowo, and his running mate, Mohammad Mahfud MD, followed with 24.5%.

Former Jakarta Gov. Anies Baswedan and his running mate, Muhaimin Iskandar, trailed at 21%.

The survey polled 1,217 respondents across Indonesia on Dec. 23-Dec. 24. Indonesians will on Feb. 14, 2024,  elect the successor to Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.

In the first debate – the presidential one – on Dec. 12, Anies impressed 35.5% of respondents as the best and most eloquent candidate. Prabowo trailed with 28.9% and Ganjar with 26.9%, Indikator said.

But Prabowo was seen as the candidate with the most solid program on the debate.

The survey also found that except for Central Java, where Ganjar has the edge, Prabowo dominates all regions of Indonesia. 

He has the support of all ethnic groups as well, except for the staunchly-Muslim Minang people in West Sumatra, who favor Anies, it said.

The survey found that 7.8% of respondents were undecided or swing voters, who could influence the outcome of the election.

“If [Prabowo-Gibran] managed to capture most of the swing voter base, they could avoid a run-off,” Burhanuddin Muhtadi, the director of Indikator, told reporters on Tuesday.

Indonesia’s presidential election system requires a runoff between the top two candidates if no one secures more than 50% of the votes in the election.

Burhanuddin said that the second and third places were too close to call, as Ganjar and Anies were within the 2.9% margin of error of the survey. 

He said that either of them could join Prabowo in the runoff if the election is not decided in one round. 

Voter dynamic ‘always shifting’

Prabowo and Gibran have gained more support from the public because of Jokowi’s popularity, said Wasisto Raharjo Jati, a political analyst at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN). 

“The presidential race is always changing, especially with the undecided voters who have not made up their minds,” he said.

He added that the candidates would try to win over the swing voters to either catch up or secure their victory.

“I cannot say for sure that it will be one round because the voter dynamics are always shifting [and will] until the last minute before Feb. 14,” he said.

However, Prabowo appears to be the clear frontrunner. 

Various other surveys released this month and conducted before the debates also showed him ahead of his rivals in the race.

The 72-year-old retired general, who was accused of human rights violations during the Suharto dictatorship and the 1998 riots, had been Jokowi’s main rival in the past two elections, losing narrowly in both. 

Now, Prabowo is believed to have Jokowi’s backing after choosing his son Gibran as his running mate, even though the president has not publicly revealed his preferences.

Poltracking Indonesia gave Prabowo 45.2% of the vote, followed by Ganjar with 27.3%, and Anies with 23.1%. 

According to a Litbang Kompas poll, Prabowo led with 39.3% of the vote, while Anies had 16.7% and Ganjar had 15.3%. 

Meanwhile, Gibran exceeded some expectations during his debut on the national stage Friday as he squared off against seasoned politicians Mahfud and Muhaimin in the vice presidential debate. 

Gibran, 36, the mayor of Solo, has been criticized as a novice and privileged politician who benefits from his father’s popularity and influence. 

His candidacy is widely seen as a continuation of his father’s legacy. 

Gibran’s bid has attracted controversy because of a perceived conflict of interest and accusations of nepotism in a court decision that enabled him to run for vice president.

During the debate, he outlined plans for further industrialization and addressed the pressing issues of digital policy and economic growth while stressing the importance of cybersecurity and data protection.

Two more presidential debates and an additional vice presidential debate are set to be held before the election.

Indonesia's Prabowo Subianto. Photo Credit: Mehr News Agency




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