Saturday, October 01, 2022

CONSPIRACY THEORY; THE REDS DID IT
Nord Stream pipeline ‘damaged beyond repair crippling £35billion project FOREVER’ after huge blasts triggered earthquake
THIS IS NOT JUST MISINFORMATION IT IS
DISINFORMATION

Henry Holloway
THE SUN
28 Sep 2022

NORD STREAM is feared to have been damaged beyond repair and left crippled indefinitely after it was torn open by a series of explosions.

German officials reportedly believe the project - estimated to be worth around £35billion - may never be fully operational again.


Gas leak at Nord Stream 2 as seen from the Danish F-16 interceptor
Credit: Reuters

It is feared the key gas network could have been sabotaged by Russia as tensions continue to rage with Europe over the war in Ukraine.

Twin 800-mile pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 can ferry 110billion cubic metres of gas annually from Russia into Western Europe.

Gas has not been flowing in recent weeks - and it is unclear at this stage how big an impact this will have on the European energy markets.

Prices had already spiked by up to 12 per cent following the apparent sabotage, deepening fears the continent is facing a cold and bleak winter.

READ MORE ON RUSSIA


IN DEEP
Russia's elite 'Frogmen' commandos revealed with underwater guns & killer dolphins

German security services reportedly believe the damage has left the pipeline "forever unusable" - with three of four tubes so severely damaged they are now beyond repair, reports Tagesspiegel.

The paper reports the size of the holes in the pipes is sending large amounts of corrosive salt water flowing inside - further damaging them.

German government officials believe the complexity and scale of the attack could have only been carried out by a "state actor".

And the current theory is that Russia was behind it, even though "the motive is unclear".

European authorities are now desperately trying to piece together what exactly happened in the run up to the blasts just off the coast of Danish island Bornholm.

Nord Stream 2's single undamaged tube is now theoretically the only one which can now deliver gas - but the pipeline has not been operational for some time.

Massive leaks in the pipeline have left parts of the Baltic roiling with bubbles as residual gas leaks into the sea.

Two underwater explosions were detected on Monday alongside a mini earthquake.

Ukraine and Poland have pointed the finger at Moscow - while other European nations have stopped short of attributing blame.

Putin has been previously accused of weaponising the energy crisis in a bid to pile pressure on the West.

Russia has denied the allegations, calling them "predictable and stupid".

It opens up a new front in the war. It means the Ukrainian war is now going to the BalticProfessor Michael Clarke

Professor Joan Cordiner, professor of process engineering at the University of Sheffield, said: "Pipes don't just leak catastrophically suddenly.

"Typically normal leaks due to corrosion start small and build up over time.

"Therefore such a sudden large leak can only have come from a sudden blow cutting the pipe."

Professor Michael Clarke, a security and defence analyst, told Sky News: "This is not some casual terrorist act, it has to be a government.

"The only government who could really gain from that, in a peculiar way, is Russia – none of the European governments would want to do it."

He added: "Privately, everyone is convinced this is a Kremlin-inspired piece of sabotage.

"This is a strategic own goal because although it increases the sense of isolation that there will be no Russian gas for Europe this winter, it actually destroys Russia's credibility completely with European customers for the next couple of generations."

Prof Clarke explained the Russians would want to "create insecurity" and warned there "may be more of this".

"It opens up a new front in the war. It means the Ukrainian war is now going to the Baltic," he warned.

Europe is already braced for a bleak winter as gas becomes a key pawn in Putin's clash on the West.

Rolling blackouts, four day weeks, and normal people being unable to afford to heat their homes are just some of the consequences feared to sweep across the continent as temperatures plunge.

Gas prices were already high before the Ukraine war as demand soared after the lifting of Covid restrictions.

But prices skyrocketed after the invasion as Russia is one of the world's biggest producers.

Continental Europe is heavily reliant in Russian gas imports, leading to fears of winter blackouts, rationing and factory closures in Germany.

Only a tiny fraction of Britain's gas comes directly from Russia.

But the UK relies more on gas for generating electricity than European neighbours because it has less nuclear and renewable energy.

Britain also has little storage capacity, forcing energy firms to buy gas on the highly volatile short-term spot market.

Even the abundant North Sea gas is sold to the UK based on international market prices.




VLAD’S RANSOM
Chilling secret reason behind ‘gangster’ Putin’s attack on gas pipeline that could see West’s internet COLLAPSE


Adrian Zorzut
Henry Holloway
Rebecca Husselbee
29 Sep 2022

VLADIMIR Putin could be plotting to strike Europe's key infrastructures and hold the West to ransom after the Nord Stream pipeline attack, experts have warned.

Pipelines, rigs and undersea cables could be next on Russia's hit list as 'gangster' Putin tries to cow Europe into ending support for Ukraine.

An aerial shot by Swedish coast guards shows the release of gas from the Nord Stream gas leaks
Credit: Reuters

Mad Vlad has threatened to use 'all means available' to protect Russian territory
Credit: Alamy


It's feared the Nord Stream attack was a chilling signal to the West as part of the tyrant's attempt to 'escalate to de-escalate' - forcing them to back down.

As part of his plan, a brutal attack on the West means a response would become worthless or elicit an even more extreme reaction.

Putin's mafia-style response would target key oil and gas pipelines and vital undersea cables that carry 97 per cent of internet traffic with $10 trillion worth of daily financial transactions dependent on them.

German interior minister Nancy Faeser warned western European leaders that they needed to prepare for "previously unimaginable" threats while NATO draws up plans to "address the protection of critical infrastructure".

READ MORE ON PUTIN


GAS CHAOS
Fourth Nord Stream gas leak discovered off Sweden after ‘premeditated bomb blast’


TORN APART
Nord Stream pipeline ‘damaged beyond repair crippling £35billion project'


High up on Putin's target list could be two pipelines supplying Britain with vital oil and gas from Norway - the Norpipe and the Britpipe.

Britain's largest oil and gas fields, which are fixed with dozens of rigs and pipelines and sit close to Norwegian waters.

The 220-mile-long Norpipe, owned by company Gassled, carries oil to a station in Teeside.

The pipeline has the capacity to deliver 830,000 barrels of oil per day.

The Britpipe line, which supplies natural gas to the UK and Europe along a 725-mile-long pipe to Country Durham, carries 25.5billion cubic metres every year.

An undersea attack by Putin on these key pipelines could bring Britain to a standstill it's feared.

Putin's frogmen could also cut undersea internet cables carrying sensitive financial information across the Atlantic from Europe, sparking an annihilating market crash, according to one US Navy sub-warfare expert.

The cables, off the Irish coast, could be attacked by Putin's stealth 'hunter killer' subs - specially built for the task.

The Losharik spy subs are carried underneath beneath an enormous "mothership" undersea Belgorod vessel and are built to lurk at the bottom of the ocean.

They enter the Atlantic by sailing down from the Arctic.

The vessels then use robotic arms to tamper with or even cut key cables that help keep the world's economy moving with potentially devastating consequences.

Cutting enough of the network in the Atlantic could cause chaos for Britain, with Air Marshall Sir Stuart Peach previously warning such a breach could be "catastrophic".

It could shut down the internet, cut Britain off from the rest of the world, paralyse financial transactions, and damage communications with the military overseas.

It could also cause significant problems for the US, which use the cables as a line of communication with its NATO allies.

It's also feared Russia or other state actors could tap into the cables to steal information.

Meanwhile, Professor Damien Erns from the University of Liege in Belgium said Europe faced a "terrible recession" if any of its critical infrastructures were struck, adding protection systems are woefully unfit for purpose.

"Our infrastructure is not very well protected and it is extremely difficult to secure them over thousands of kilometres," he said.

"If gas supplies from Norway to Europe were cut off, we would see a terrible recession. We would not even be able to heat ourselves and produce electricity.

"The fears are very serious and well-founded. Europe has no more room for manoeuvre and we cannot exclude that things will deteriorate very significantly in the coming months."

Bryan Clark, a former US Navy strategic planner turned security expert, said efforts to survey the Baltic and North Sea could be eluded by Russia's state-of-the-art sabotage subs.

He said: "It’s all part of the Russian style of political warfare.

"It’s about sowing doubt, creating just enough fog of uncertainty."

The Baltic is also very shallow with deep underwater currents whilst the seabed is littered with WWII wrecks.

It comes amid fears the Nord Stream gas line may have been damaged beyond repair after it was torn open by a series of explosions.

German officials reportedly believe the project - estimated to be worth around £35billion - may never be fully operational again.

It is feared the key gas network could have been sabotaged by Russia as tensions continue to rage with Europe over the war in Ukraine.

Twin 800-mile pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 can ferry 110billion cubic metres of gas annually from Russia into Western Europe.

Gas has not been flowing in recent weeks - and it is unclear at this stage how big an impact this will have on the European energy markets.



Gas leak at Nord Stream 2 as seen from the Danish F-16 interceptor
Credit: Reuters

Prices had already spiked by up to 12 per cent following the apparent sabotage, deepening fears the continent is facing a cold and bleak winter.

German government officials believe the complexity and scale of the attack could have only been carried out by a "state actor".

And the current theory is that Russia was behind it, even though "the motive is unclear".

European authorities are now desperately trying to piece together what exactly happened in the run-up to the blasts just off the coast of Danish island Bornholm.

Nord Stream 2's single undamaged tube is now theoretically the only one which can now deliver gas - but the pipeline has not been operational for some time.

Massive leaks in the pipeline have left parts of the Baltic roiling with bubbles as residual gas leaks into the sea.

Two underwater explosions were detected on Monday alongside a mini earthquake.

Ukraine and Poland have pointed the finger at Moscow - while other European nations have stopped short of attributing blame.

Russia has denied the allegations, calling them "predictable and stupid".

Professor Joan Cordiner, Professor of process engineering at the University of Sheffield, said: "Pipes don't just leak catastrophically suddenly.

"Typically normal leaks due to corrosion start small and build up over time.


"Therefore such a sudden large leak can only have come from a sudden blow cutting the pipe."

Prof Clarke explained the Russians would want to "create insecurity" and warned there "may be more of this".

"It opens up a new front in the war. It means the Ukrainian war is now going to the Baltic," he warned.

Europe is already braced for a bleak winter as gas becomes a key pawn in Putin's clash on the West.

If gas supplies from Norway to Europe were cut off, we would see a terrible recession. We would not even be able to heat ourselves and produce electricityProfessor Damien Erns

Rolling blackouts, four-day weeks, and normal people being unable to afford to heat their homes are just some of the consequences feared to sweep across the continent as temperatures plunge.

Gas prices were already high before the Ukraine war as demand soared after the lifting of Covid restrictions.

But prices skyrocketed after the invasion as Russia is one of the world's biggest producers.

Continental Europe is heavily reliant on Russian gas imports, leading to fears of winter blackouts, rationing and factory closures in Germany.


Only a tiny fraction of Britain's gas comes directly from Russia.

But the UK relies more on gas for generating electricity than European neighbours because it has less nuclear and renewable energy.


Britain also has little storage capacity, forcing energy firms to buy gas on the highly volatile short-term spot market.

Even the abundant North Sea gas is sold to the UK based on international market prices.



Footage from a helicopter shows the sea bubbling above the Nord Stream pipelines
Credit: FORSVARET


What Do Mysterious Nord Stream Methane Leaks Mean for Climate Change?

Researchers are rushing to calculate the greenhouse-gas emissions resulting from mysterious leaks in major gas pipelines that connect Russia to Europe

By Katharine SandersonNature magazine on September 30, 2022
Danish Defense shows the gas leaking at Nord Stream 2 seen from the Danish F-16 interceptor on Bornholm, Denmark on September 27, 2022. 
 Credit: Danish Defence/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Since 26 September, mysterious leaks have appeared in the underwater Nord Stream gas pipelines—which run from Russia to Germany—close to the Danish island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea. Given the tense energy situation between Russia and the West following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a real-life geopolitical whodunit has ensued, with NATO now among those attributing the leaks to sabotage. Seismologists picked up data that might help to pinpoint the cause of the leaks, and other researchers are trying to work out how much methane—a potent greenhouse gas—will be released as a result.

Overnight on 26 September, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline’s operators saw a sudden pressure drop, from 105 bar (which is 105 times atmospheric pressure) to just 7 bar. Soon after, a 1-kilometre-wide area of the Baltic Sea’s surface was bubbling with the escaping gas.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been shut since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, but it is still full of gas, which is assumed to be around 90% methane. The drop in pressure prompted seismologists to look more closely at their data, says Björn Lund at Uppsala University, Sweden. The attention on seismology data has made for an extraordinary week. “I’ve never experienced anything like it,” says Lund, adding that his network detected seismic activity at the same time as the leak that is consistent with explosions, not earthquakes—which have a different seismic fingerprint.

CLIMATE ALERT

The events have also put the climate community on alert. When Andrew Baxter, once an engineer in the oil and gas industry, now the director of energy transition at the Environmental Defense Fund, based in New York City, heard about the leak in Nord Stream 2, he “switched back into engineering mode” to try to quantify the resulting methane release. “I came up with a very rough estimate, there are so many variables and unknowns here, it’s very difficult to definitively say how much methane has made it into the atmosphere,” he says.

Baxter estimated that 115,000 tonnes of methane had probably been released during the initial sudden pressure drop in Nord Stream 2, on the basis of the pipe’s dimensions and the water temperature. Per unit mass, methane has a much more potent greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide—particularly in the short term. Baxter says the overall impact of this leak is equivalent to the annual carbon emissions from two million cars.

“If these numbers end up being confirmed, it would be the one of the largest single leaks of natural gas in history in a single location,” says Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, a data-analysis non-profit organization in California. But he adds that this doesn’t fundamentally change the magnitude of global emissions.

The event, although huge, accounts for around 0.14% of the global annual methane emissions from the oil and gas industry, says Mark Davis, chief executive of Capterio, a company in London that tracks gas flares from industry, but which didn’t detect the vented gas because it isn’t burning. He argues that, once the leak was discovered, setting it alight could have mitigated much of the damage, by converting the methane to carbon dioxide. Since the initial pressure drop in Nord Stream 2, leaks have also been reported in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which runs alongside it and is also currently not operational.

SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS


Measuring precisely how much methane has been emitted is going to take time. Efforts so far have been hampered by the quirks of geography and bad luck. The public satellites that environmental observations rely on were not facing the right way at the time, says Itziar Irakulis-Loitxate at Valencia Polytechnic University, Spain, who uses satellite data to measure atmospheric methane levels. And the cloud cover common at the northern latitudes meant that it was almost impossible to get any data. That is on top an inherent challenge in monitoring methane over water: water absorbs most of the sunlight and masks any signal from methane in a spectrometer.

The methane spike was detected from the ground by at least one observatory: the Swedish station of the European Integrated Carbon Observation System project at Hyltemossa.

In the coming days and weeks, scientists will continue to try to understand how much methane has been released as a result of the leaks. Seismologists might also be able to help to determine how the pipes were ruptured. By comparing the seismic data they collected on the Nord Stream explosions with that from previous naval blasts, Lund and his team already suspect TNT.

Lund and his colleagues are scrambling to work out from their seismic data exactly how many blasts occurred, but he notes that the complex geology of Earth’s crust in the region between Denmark and Sweden makes it hard. “There’s a very big change in the thickness of the crust of the rock material,” he says.

Nord Stream gas leaks: What they mean for the climate and global energy prices
30 September 2022 
RENEW ECONOMY
Photo taken from the Swedish Coast Guard aircraft. 
Credit: SWEDISH COAST GUARD HANDOUT

Four major leaks were discovered this week in the two pipelines that usually shuttle liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia to Europe.

NATO has labelled the suspected sabotage of the Nord Stream gas pipelines 1 and 2 in the Baltic Sea as “deliberate, reckless and irresponsible acts”.

The pipelines in question have been at the centre of a storm of controversy for months as Russia cut gas supplies to Europe amid mounting tensions over the war in Ukraine.

Before the war in Ukraine, Russia supplied more than half of all the natural gas used in Germany and more than 40% of the EU’s LNG.

In response to sanctions against Russia, however, Nord Stream 1 operated at a fraction of its capacity over summer, while Nord Stream 2 never opened.
Largest leakage of methane in a single event ever recorded

Though not in operation, the two pipelines were still full of LNG, and are now haemorrhaging methane – a greenhouse gas at least 25 times more potent than CO2 over a 100-year time frame – into the atmosphere from four seething patches of the Baltic Sea.

The four leaks are the largest cumulative leakage of methane in a single event ever recorded. Deliberate sabotage was seemingly confirmed by reports from Seismologists in Sweden and Denmark earlier in the week of several powerful explosions in the area.

Speaking with ABC News, Stanford University climate scientist Rob Jackson labelled the sabotage “war crimes”.

Though most governments have fallen short of naming Russia directly responsible for the explosions, Poland’s foreign minister has called the leaks ‘an element of Russian hybrid war’.

What is the climate impact?


It’s unclear how much gas was in the pipes, but according to Kristoffer Böttzauw, director of the Danish Energy Agency, the leaks may amount to about 14 million tonnes of CO2, roughly 32% of Denmark’s annual emissions – and Denmark and Sweden will have to include the leaks within their annual climate reporting.

It looks as though these leaks will be less damaging to the climate than the headlines might suggest, however: the US Geological Survey estimated the total amount of methane released would amount to about 0.1% of annual global methane emissions.

Similarly, British climate scientist Chris Smith tweeted on Thursday, “I ran the numbers on the #NordStream methane leak and thankfully the climate impact is small: median additional warming of 0.000016C that peaks by 2030.”

“They’re pretty small in the global context but very big by comparison with other leaks we know about,” said Peter Rayner, a professor of climate science at the University of Melbourne.

“Anthropogenic emissions of methane are in the hundreds of millions of tonnes each year and one estimate for this is half a million so it’s a big event but not a long-term story.”

According to Drew Shindell, a professor of earth science at Duke University, US, the emissions rival those of a medium-sized city.

“It’s not trivial, but it’s a modest-sized US city, something like that,” Shindell told the Washington Post. “There are so many sources all around the world. Any single event tends to be small. I think this tends to fall in that category.”
Impact on marine life

Concerns were also raised about the potential impact of the leaks on the environment and marine life of the Baltic Sea.

A spokesperson for Germany’s Environment Ministry told Deutsche Welle, “according to our current knowledge, the leaks in the Nord Stream pipeline do not pose any serious threat to the marine environment of the Baltic Sea.ʺ

While the potential for explosions near to the leaks pose a present threat to marine life – and boats – nearby, the long-term impacts look to be minimal, as all the methane will either escape into the atmosphere or be consumed by microbes in the water.

“I’m not a toxicologist so I can’t comment on acute toxicity but this stuff will disperse pretty quickly into the ocean and the atmosphere provided the leak has stopped,” Rayner said.

Will the leaks affect Australian gas prices?


The leak announcements led the price of natural gas per megawatt-hour in Europe to rise 12.8% on Wednesday to €209.88 (AU$317.24), despite the fact that both pipelines at the time were sitting idle, loaded with gas not bound for anywhere.

Perhaps more alarming, Kremlin-controlled gas company Gazprom this week threatened to halt gas supplies to Europe via Ukraine by imposing sanctions on Naftogaz, the Ukrainian gas company.

This latest surge in gas prices comes after several weeks of decline thanks to European efforts to bolster gas supplies ahead of the coming winter.

While Australia’s gas prices have risen, they have tailed behind soaring European prices. Nonetheless, gas price hikes affect every facet of the global market, and the resultant economic damage is exported around the world by the rise in other costs.

“I think it’s probably not yet clear how this will affect other regions,” said David Frame, director of the New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute (NZCCRI) at the Victoria University of Wellington.

“Those most directly affected will be in Europe, though also potentially in other places in Eurasia which utilise piped gas if they perceive risks to their supplies to be elevated. Beyond that, it’s hard to know.”

But Frame acknowledged that the crisis is likely to ripple outwards into other areas.

“Europe will presumably be increasing its demand for other fossil fuels to see them through the energy disruption, and that might push other fuel prices up,” he said. “It’s hard to say at this point, I think.”

Can the leaks be repaired easily?


Germany’s security agency believes the damage may have made the pipelines ‘unusable forever’, as reported by Tagesspiegel. And technical experts say the pipelines will be harder to repair once all of the gas has escaped and they fill with seawater and start to corrode.

Any attempt to repair them before that point would be too dangerous, however, because methane gas is highly flammable and therefore explosive.

It’s the final nail in the coffin for the old world-order of European reliance on Russian gas. But what’s the solution?
Another boost for renewables?

According to Rayner, this new twist in the beleaguered story of the European gas crisis may ultimately propel the shift to renewables.

“They’ve a short-term problem (this winter) and a longer-term one if supply stays blocked,” said Rayner.

“They won’t be able to switch their energy system overnight so they’ll probably use gas plus potentially reopen their mothballed coal and nuclear plants, but I suspect they’ll never risk dependence on Russian gas again, probably accelerating the renewables switch.”

“I hope this will focus minds on moving away from reliance on fossil sources of energy, especially where these can be used as geopolitical bargaining chips,” added Frame. “It’s an obvious lesson but one that appears to need to be learned every few decades.”

Amalyah Hart is a science journalist based in Melbourne.

Nord Stream rupture may mark biggest single methane release ever recorded - UN

Reuters
Sep 30, 2022 • 

The ruptures on the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline system under the Baltic Sea has led to what is likely the biggest single release of climate-damaging methane ever recorded, the United Nations Environment Programme said on Friday.

A huge plume of highly concentrated methane, a greenhouse gas far more potent but shorter-lived than carbon dioxide, was detected in an analysis this week of satellite imagery by researchers associated with UNEP’s International Methane Emissions Observatory, or IMEO, the organization said.

“This is really bad, most likely the largest emission event ever detected,” Manfredi Caltagirone, acting head of the IMEO for UNEP, told Reuters. “This is not helpful in a moment when we absolutely need to reduce emissions,” he said.

Researchers have not yet been able to quantify from the imagery the amount of methane leaking from the Gazprom-led pipeline system, but believe the rate of emissions is higher than from a major leak that occurred in December from offshore oil and gas fields in Mexican waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which spilled around 100 metric tons of methane per hour, Caltagirone said.

The Gulf of Mexico leak, also viewable from space, ultimately released around 40,000 metric tons of methane over 17 days, according to a study conducted by the Polytechnic University of Valencia and published in the journal Environmental Science & Technology Letters.

That is the equivalent of burning 1.1 billion pounds of coal, according to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator.

Improved satellite technology has rapidly enhanced the ability of scientists to find and analyze greenhouse gas emissions in recent years, something some governments hope will help companies detect and prevent methane emissions.

The major leaks that suddenly erupted in the Nord Stream gas pipelines that run from Russia to Europe have generated plenty of theories but few clear answers about who or what caused the damage. Both Russia and the European Union have suggested the ruptures were caused by saboteurs.

Europe and the United States have heaped sanctions on Moscow in retaliation for its invasion of Ukraine, raising worries the Kremlin will seek to deprive Europe of crucial energy supplies leading into the winter.

Caltagirone said, whatever the cause, the damage to the pipeline posed a problem beyond energy security. “This is the most wasteful way to generate emissions,” he said.

 (Writing by Richard Valdmanis Editing by Frances Kerry)


8 things to know about the environmental impact of ‘unprecedented’ Nord Stream leaks

Suspected sabotage will release large amounts of methane, but it’s a ‘wee bubble’ compared with what’s emitted globally every day.


Snow and storms near the island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea, 
where the Nord Stream pipeline leaked | 
Pelle Rink/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images

BY KARL MATHIESEN AND ZIA WEISE
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022 8:25 PM

The apparent sabotage of both Nord Stream gas pipelines may be one of the worst industrial methane accidents in history, scientists said Wednesday, but it's not a major climate disaster.

Methane — a greenhouse gas up to 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide — is escaping into the atmosphere from three boiling patches on the surface of the Baltic Sea, the largest of which the Danish military said was a kilometer across.

On Tuesday evening, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen condemned the “sabotage” and “deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure.”

Here are eight key questions on the impact of the leaks.


1. How much methane was in the pipelines?

No government agency in Europe could say for sure how much gas was in the pipes.

“I cannot tell you clearly as the pipelines are owned by Nord Stream AG and the gas comes from Gazprom,” said a spokesperson for the German climate and economy ministry.

The two Nord Stream 1 pipelines were in operation, although Moscow stopped delivering gas a month ago, and both were hit. “It can be assumed that it’s a large amount” of gas in those lines, the German official said. Only one of the Nord Stream 2 lines was struck. It was not in operation but was filled with 177 million cubic meters of gas last year.

Estimates of the total gas in the pipelines that are leaking range from 150 million cubic meters to 500 million cubic meters.

2. How much is being released?


Kristoffer Böttzauw, the director of the Danish Energy Agency, told reporters on Wednesday that the leaks would equate to about 14 million tons of CO2, about 32 percent of Denmark's annual emissions.

Germany's Federal Environment Agency estimated the leaks will lead to emissions of around 7.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent — about 1 percent of Germany's annual emissions. The agency also noted there are no "sealing mechanisms" along the pipelines, "so in all likelihood the entire contents of the pipes will escape."

Because at least one of the leaks is in Danish waters, Denmark will have to add these emissions to its climate balance sheet, the agency said.

But it is not clear whether all of the gas in the lines would actually be released into the atmosphere. Methane is also consumed by ocean bacteria as it heads through the water column.

3. How does that compare to previous leaks?


The largest leak ever recorded in the U.S. was the 2015 Aliso Canyon leak of roughly 90,000 tons of methane over months. With the upper estimates of what might be released in the Baltic more than twice that, this week's disaster may be "unprecedented," said David McCabe, a senior scientist with the Clean Air Task Force.

Jeffrey Kargel, a senior scientist at the Planetary Research Institute in Tucson, Arizona, said the leak was "really disturbing. It is a real travesty, an environmental crime if it was deliberate."

4. Will this have a meaningful effect on global temperatures?

"The amount of gas lost from the pipeline obviously is large," Kargel said. But "it is not the climate disaster one might think."

Annual global carbon emissions are around 32 billion tons, so this represents a tiny fraction of the pollution driving climate change. It even pales in comparison to the accumulation of thousands of industrial and agricultural sources of methane that are warming the planet.

“This is a wee bubble in the ocean compared to the huge amounts of so-called fugitive methane that are emitted every day around the world due to things like fracking, coal mining and oil extraction,” said Dave Reay, executive director of the Edinburgh Climate Change Institute.

Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, said it was roughly comparable to the amount of methane leaked from across Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure on any given working week.

A leak was reported near the Nord Stream 2 pipeline off the coast of Denmark's Bornholm island | Danish Defence Command


5. Is the local environment affected?


While the gas is still leaking, the immediate vicinity is an extremely dangerous place. Air that contains more than 5 percent methane can be flammable, said Gregor Rehder, a marine biogeochemist and chemical oceanographer at the Leibniz-Institute for Baltic Sea Research, so the risk of an explosion is real. Methane is not a toxic gas, but high concentrations can reduce the amount of available oxygen.

Shipping has been restricted from a 5 nautical mile radius around the leaks. This is because the methane in the water can affect buoyancy and rupture a vessel’s hull.

Marine animals near the escaping gas may be caught up and killed — especially poor swimmers such as jellyfish, said Rehder. But long-term effects on the local environment are not anticipated.


“It's an unprecedented case,” he said. “But from our current understanding, I would think that the local effects on marine life in the area is rather small.”

6. What can be done?


Some have suggested that the remaining gas should be pumped out, but a German economy and climate ministry spokesperson on Wednesday said this wasn't possible.

Once the pipeline has emptied, "it will fill up with water," the spokesperson added. "At the moment, no one can go underwater — the danger is too great due to the escaping methane."

Any repair would be the responsibility of pipeline owner Nord Stream AG, the Germans said.

7. Should they set it on fire?     NO!!!


Not only would it look impressive, setting the gas on fire would hugely slash the global warming impact of the leak. Methane is made of carbon and hydrogen, when burned it creates carbon dioxide, which is between 30 and 80 times less planet-warming per ton than methane. Flaring, as it is known, is a common method for reducing the impact of escaping methane.

From a pure climate perspective, setting the escaping methane on fire makes sense. “Yes, definitely — it will help,” said Piers Forster, director of the Priestley International Centre for Climate at the University of Leeds.

But there would be safety issues and potential environmental concerns, including air pollution from the combustion. "With land — in particular the inhabited and touristic island of Bornholm — nearby, you would not venture into this," said Rehder.

No government has yet indicated that this is under consideration.

8. How long will it last and what next?

“We expect that gas will flow out of the pipes until the end of the week. After that, first of all, from the Danish side, we will try to get out and investigate what the cause is, and approach the pipes, so that we can have it investigated properly. We can do that when the gas leak has stopped,” Danish Energy Agency director Böttzauw told local media.



United Ireland conference being held in Dublin

By Darran Marshall
BBC News NI Political Correspondent

  • PublishedShare
IMAGE SOURCE,BBC SPORT
Image caption,
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar will give a keynote address on Saturday while the leaders of Sinn Féin and the SDLP are also due to attend

Thousands of people are due to attend a conference in Dublin on Saturday to discuss planning for a united Ireland.

The event, to be held at the 3Arena, will hear from a range of politicians, members of civic society and business representatives.

Organisers say the conference is the "most significant and important" event to discuss a united Ireland.

Ireland's Future was formed to "advocate for, and promote, debate and discussion" about Ireland's future.

It has held a number of events since it was formed in 2019, including its first event at the Waterfront Hall in Belfast.

The leaders of Sinn Féin and the SDLP will be joined by senior figures from all of the main political parties in the Republic of Ireland.

Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, who is due to become taoiseach in December, will give a keynote address.

Irish Times journalist Justine McCarthy says the attendance of so many political big hitters gives the event "a stamp of plausibility and heralds a new chapter in what some see as the pre-poll climate".

"This certainly suggests there is an acceptance among many politicians who will be in power in the future that a border poll is inevitable," she said.

Image caption,
Andree Murphy, one of the organisers of the event, says it is unprecedented

A number of people from non-political backgrounds are due to attend the event, including actors Jimmy Nesbitt and Colm Meaney.

"For the first time we're seeing voices that we haven't really heard before in the constitutional debate," says Andree Murphy, one of the event organisers.

"People who are involved in different aspects of society, engaged in this conversation in a very different way to anything that's happened before. It's unprecedented, really."

The Alliance Party in Northern Ireland is the only non-unionist party on the island that will not be represented.

The party declined an invite, saying it did not feel it was appropriate for it to attend what it called, a "rally for a united Ireland".

Border poll

Under the Good Friday Agreement, the power to hold a border poll rests solely with the Northern Ireland secretary.

He is legally bound to call one if "it appears likely" that a majority of people in Northern Ireland wish to leave the UK and join a united Ireland.

This week the Northern Ireland Office said there was no clear basis to suggest a majority of people in Northern Ireland wish to separate from the United Kingdom.

Fianna Fail's Jim O'Callaghan is due to speak at the event.

"It's perfectly acceptable to seek to have, as a political objective, the reunification of both jurisdictions on the island," he said.

"There has to be an appreciation that this is a political issue, and like all political issues it should be discussed and decided through debate and ultimately a vote.

"It's very important we are respectful when we are discussing the issue."

Image caption,
Prof Pete Shirlow says he believes the event is a "bit of proclamation"

Organisers say they have sold thousands of tickets for the event but are not in a position to give an exact number.

There has been criticism that the event will be only be addressed and attended by nationalist politicians.

"I don't think the event is actually about a conversation. I think the event is a bit of proclamation," says Prof Pete Shirlow, from the University of Liverpool.

Former Irish Labour Party senator Máiría Cahill says discussions about unity risk alienating unionists.

"The danger around things like this is there seems to be a hardening or a toxicity around this conversation, that unity is inevitable, that unionists are going to have to get used to it," she says.

Image caption,
Máiría Cahill says mistakes of the past should not be repeated

"That they will be effectively shoehorned into a country that they don't want to be in.

"We have to be very careful not to repeat the mistakes of the past."

Ms Cahill has questions about the group's funding and revenue.

"I would like the group to be fully transparent around who its donors are, if there is a particular funding stream coming from Irish America, and whether that money then has an influence as to what type of events that people are able to put on," she says.

Ireland's Future says it received no public funding and no political party funds the organisation that relies on patrons and donors.

"Ireland's Future is a totally open and transparent organisation and observes best practice in relation to financial matters and adheres to all regulatory norms," says the organisation.

THAT DIDN'T TAKE LONG
Voices: The bizarre Hurricane Ian conspiracy theories that we should’ve seen coming

Ahmed Baba
Fri, September 30, 2022 

Jordan Reidy carries his dog back to his apartment in Fort Myers, Florida on Friday, amid flooded streets (Getty Images)

More than 2 million people are without power after 155 mph winds and rain decimated large swaths of Florida during Hurricane Ian. We’ve seen floodwaters sweep cars, houses, and people away. And Americans have been united in our support and well wishes for the people of Florida. President Biden and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) have once again put their differences aside to coordinate their disaster relief responses. DeSantis even thanked Biden on Fox News for immediately approving Florida’s requests for funds and support. But not everyone has been so gracious.

As the death toll mounts, we’re just now beginning to grasp the full devastation caused by one of the most powerful storms to make landfall in US history. But in the aftermath of Ian’s destruction, conspiracy theories have swirled like the hurricane’s winds. Some are downplaying the severity of the hurricane-turned-tropical storm, claiming it’s simply a tool to push the “climate change narrative”, or outright claiming the hurricane was artificially created. Yes, we’re now at the point of American insanity where “fake hurricanes” is a conspiracy theory that exists.

The conspiracy theories began with a Twitter video that depicted a CNN reporter struggling in the storm while someone in the background appeared to walk more calmly to their car. It’s been viewed over 1.2 million times and conspiracy theorists have exploited it to support their wild and asinine narratives.

Former American Idol contestant Jimmy Levy posted a now-deleted Instagram reel to his 707,000 followers using that viral Twitter video. The caption suggested the reporter was an actor and that “we are in the Truman Show.” Levy claimed that “They make the wars. They make the storms... They run the Matrix.”

After he deleted that reel, he posted a series of posts that read “shame on those who manipulate the weather” and “Now they’re gonna start saying it’s all climate change, but this isn’t that. It is only weather... Lockdowns next.” In the worst post, Levy wrote, “I’m absolutely sick to my stomach watching the footage of Florida and knowing the truth that these evil people are behind it and the masses have no clue.” If you’re in the mood for a headache, go read the Instagram comments replying to those posts in absurd agreement. This same absolute lie of “weather control” was shared by another Instagram user, which Politifact swiftly debunked.

Fortunately, these conspiracy theories haven’t made it fully into mainstream culture just yet, but we’ve seen them teased by prominent right-wing figures. Earlier this week, Fox News anchor Tucker Carlson called hurricanes a “scam,” essentially arguing that the media hypes up the severity of hurricanes and tropical storms. When he was alive, Rush Limbaugh also claimed “the left” exploited hurricanes to push a climate change agenda. And how can we forget President Trump reportedly speculating about whether China was shooting America with a “hurricane gun”?

The truth is, Hurricane Ian was very real. And so was Hurricane Fiona, which devastated Puerto Rico earlier this month. Not only are these massive weather events real, but they are being made more severe by climate change, according to multiple studies. While some could argue that it’s irresponsible for news organizations to send reporters into dangerous storms — a sentiment I agree with — it is incredibly irresponsible to downplay these storms or falsely claim that they are somehow being manipulated for media or liberal gain.

Hurricane conspiracy theories are among the most uniquely depraved breeds of disinformation imaginable. They’re in the same tier as Covid conspiracy theories, which we saw take over the right-wing ecosystem during the most crucial phase of the pandemic. We’re still grappling with the fallout from those lies. This form of disinformation toys with people’s lives. I don’t doubt that many people who tout them believe these theories in good faith, but it’s sad to see how they can be led so far astray by a post-Trumpian political environment that taught them to doubt the hand in front of their face.

NBC News reporter Ben Collins’ tweet said it all: “This is the inevitable endpoint of an entire political party saying everything the news says is ‘fake’ — large swaths of the country disbelieving evacuation orders, or downplaying the extreme weather that they can see with their very eyes.”

How can we expect Americans to make informed decisions with so much disinformation consistently going viral? America’s conspiracy theory culture is corrupting our collective consciousness. We can’t even navigate natural disasters anymore without conspiracists trying to stir up nonsense. As long as influential voices continue giving life to dangerous disinformation, we will continue to see real lives impacted by fake narratives.
What media didn't tell you about the UN: 
66 nations called for an end to Ukraine war

Medea Benjamin & Nicolas J.S. Davies -
CODE PINK
Salon 30/09/2022
Congolese Foreign Minister Jean-Claude Gakosso addresses the 77th session of the UN General Assembly on Sept. 26, 2022. YUKI IWAMURA/AFP via Getty Images

We have spent the past week reading and listening to speeches by world leaders at the UN General Assembly in New York. Most of them condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a violation of the UN Charter and a serious setback for the peaceful world order that is the UN's founding and defining principle.

But what has not been reported in the United States is that leaders from 66 countries, mainly from the global South, also used their General Assembly speeches to call urgently for diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine through peaceful negotiations, as the UN Charter requires. We have compiled excerpts from the speeches of all 66 countries to show the breadth and depth of their appeals, and we highlight a few of them here.

Related
War in Ukraine rages on, with no end in sight — peace talks are essential

African leaders echoed one of the first speakers, Macky Sall, the president of Senegal, who also spoke in his capacity as the current chairman of the African Union when he said, "We call for de-escalation and a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, as well as for a negotiated solution, to avoid the catastrophic risk of a potentially global conflict."

The 66 nations that called for peace in Ukraine make up more than a third of the countries in the world, and they represent most of the Earth's population, including India, China, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil and Mexico.

While NATO and EU countries have rejected peace negotiations, and U.S. and British leaders have actively undermined them, five European countries — Hungary, Malta, Portugal, San Marino and the Vatican — joined the calls for peace at the General Assembly.

The peace caucus also includes many of the small countries that have the most to lose from the failure of the UN system revealed by recent wars in Ukraine and the greater Middle East, and who have the most to gain by strengthening the UN and enforcing the UN Charter to protect the weak and restrain the powerful.

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Philip Pierre, the prime minister of Saint Lucia, a small island state in the Caribbean, told the General Assembly:

Articles 2 and 33 of the UN Charter are unambiguous in binding Member States to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state and to negotiate and settle all international disputes by peaceful means.… We therefore call upon all parties involved to immediately end the conflict in Ukraine, by undertaking immediate negotiations to permanently settle all disputes in accordance with the principles of the United Nations.

Related video: 'Who Lost Russia?' Tracing the breakdown in relations between Moscow and the Wes
Duration 7:17  View on Watch

"As countries in the global South, we see double standards. Our public opinion does not see the Ukraine war the same way it is seen in the North."

Global South leaders lamented the breakdown of the UN system, not just in the war in Ukraine but throughout decades of war and economic coercion by the United States and its allies. President José Ramos-Horta of East Timor directly challenged the West's double standards, telling Western countries:

They should pause for a moment to reflect on the glaring contrast in their response to the wars elsewhere where women and children have died by the thousands from wars and starvation. The response to our beloved Secretary-General's cries for help in these situations have not met with equal compassion. As countries in the Global South, we see double standards. Our public opinion does not see the Ukraine war the same way it is seen in the North.

Many leaders called urgently for an end to the war in Ukraine before it escalates into a nuclear war that would kill billions of people and end human civilization as we know it. The Vatican secretary of state, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, warned:

...the war in Ukraine not only undermines the nuclear non-proliferation regime, but also presents us with the danger of nuclear devastation, either through escalation or accident. … To avoid a nuclear disaster, it is vital that there be serious engagement to find a peaceful outcome to the conflict.

Others described the economic impacts already depriving their people of food and basic necessities, and called on all sides, including Ukraine's Western backers, to return to the negotiating table before the war's impacts escalate into multiple humanitarian disasters across the Global South. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh told the Assembly:

We want the end of the Russia-Ukraine war. Due to sanctions and counter-sanctions, … the entire mankind, including women and children, is punished. Its impact does not remain confined to one country, rather it puts the lives and livelihoods of the people of all nations in greater risk, and infringes their human rights. People are deprived of food, shelter, health care and education. Children suffer the most in particular. Their future sinks into darkness.

My urge to the conscience of the world — stop the arms race, stop the war and sanctions. Ensure food, education, health care and security of the children. Establish peace.

Turkey, Mexico and Thailand each offered their own approaches to restarting peace negotiations, while Sheikh Al Thani, the emir of Qatar, succinctly explained that delaying negotiations will only bring more death and suffering:

We are fully aware of the complexities of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the international and global dimension to this crisis. However, we still call for an immediate ceasefire and a peaceful settlement, because this is ultimately what will happen regardless of how long this conflict will go on for. Perpetuating the crisis will not change this result. It will only increase the number of casualties, and it will increase the disastrous repercussions on Europe, Russia and the global economy.

Responding to Western pressure on the Global South to actively support Ukraine's war effort, India's foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, claimed the moral high ground and championed diplomacy:

As the Ukraine conflict continues to rage, we are often asked whose side we are on. And our answer, each time, is straight and honest. India is on the side of peace and will remain firmly there. We are on the side that respects the UN Charter and its founding principles. We are on the side that calls for dialogue and diplomacy as the only way out. We are on the side of those struggling to make ends meet, even as they stare at escalating costs of food, fuel and fertilizers.

It is therefore in our collective interest to work constructively, both within the United Nations and outside, in finding an early resolution to this conflict.

"We are often asked whose side we are on. ... India is on the side of peace and will remain firmly there. ... We are on the side that calls for dialogue and diplomacy as the only way out."

One of the most passionate and eloquent speeches was delivered by Congolese Foreign Minister Jean-Claude Gakosso, who summarized the thoughts of many, and appealed directly to Russia and Ukraine — in Russian!

Because of the considerable risk of a nuclear disaster for the entire planet, not only those involved in this conflict but also those foreign powers who could influence events by calming them down, should all temper their zeal. They must stop fanning the flames and they must turn their backs on this type of vanity of the powerful which has so far closed the door to dialogue.

Under the auspices of the United Nations, we must all commit without delay to peace negotiations — just, sincere and equitable negotiations. After Waterloo, we know that since the Vienna Congress, all wars finish around the table of negotiation.

The world urgently needs these negotiations to prevent the current confrontations — which are already so devastating — to prevent them from going even further and pushing humanity into what could be an irredeemable cataclysm, a widespread nuclear war beyond the control of the great powers themselves — the war, about which Einstein, the great atomic theorist, said that it would be the last battle that humans would fight on Earth.

Nelson Mandela, a man of eternal forgiveness, said that peace is a long road, but it has no alternative, it has no price. In reality, the Russians and Ukrainians have no other choice but to take this path, the path of peace.

Moreover, we too should go with them, because we must throughout the world be legions working together in solidarity, and we must be able to impose the unconditional option of peace on the war lobbies.

[Next three paragraphs in Russian:] Now I wish to be direct, and directly address my dear Russian and Ukrainian friends.

Too much blood has been spilled — the sacred blood of your sweet children. It's time to stop this mass destruction. It's time to stop this war. The entire world is watching you. It's time to fight for life, the same way that you courageously and selflessly fought together against the Nazis during World War II, in particular in Leningrad, Stalingrad, Kursk and Berlin.

Think about the youth of your two countries. Think about the fate of your future generations. The time has come to fight for peace, to fight for them. Please give peace a real chance, today, before it is too late for us all. I humbly ask this of you.

At the end of the debate on Sept. 26, Csaba Kőrösi, president of the General Assembly, acknowledged in his closing statement that ending the war in Ukraine was one of the main messages "reverberating through the hall" at this year's General Assembly. You can read his closing statement here, and all the calls for peace he was referring to.

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