Friday, October 01, 2021

Earth is dimming due to climate change

Warming oceans cause fewer bright clouds to reflect sunlight into space, trapping even more energy in Earth's climate system

Peer-Reviewed Publication

AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION

Earthshine, 1998 to 2017 

IMAGE: EARTHSHINE ANNUAL MEAN ALBEDO 1998–2017 EXPRESSED AS WATTS PER SQUARE METER (W/M2). THE CERES ANNUAL ALBEDO 2001–2019, ALSO EXPRESSED IN W/M2, ARE SHOWN IN BLUE. A BEST FIT LINE TO THE CERES DATA (2001–2019) IS SHOWN WITH A BLUE DASHED LINE. AVERAGE ERROR BARS FOR CERES MEASUREMENTS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 0.2 W/M2. view more 

CREDIT: GOODE ET AL. (2021), GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

 

WASHINGTON—Warming ocean waters have caused a drop in the brightness of the Earth, according to a new study.

Researchers used decades of measurements of earthshine — the light reflected from Earth that illuminates the surface of the Moon — as well as satellite measurements to find that there has been a significant drop in Earth’s reflectance, or albedo, over the past two decades.

The Earth is now reflecting about half a watt less light per square meter than it was 20 years ago, with most of the drop occurring in the last three years of earthshine data, according to the new study in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters, which publishes high-impact, short-format reports with immediate implications spanning all Earth and space sciences.

That’s the equivalent of 0.5% decrease in the Earth’s reflectance. Earth reflects about 30% of the sunlight that shines on it.

“The albedo drop was such a surprise to us when we analyzed the last three years of data after 17 years of nearly flat albedo,” said Philip Goode, a researcher at New Jersey Institute of Technology and the lead author of the new study, referring to the earthshine data from 1998 to 2017 gathered by the Big Bear Solar Observatory in Southern California. When the latest data were added to the previous years, the dimming trend became clear.

Two things affect the net sunlight reaching the Earth: the Sun's brightness and the planet’s reflectivity. The changes in Earth's albedo observed by the researchers did not correlate with periodic changes in the Sun's brightness, so that means changes in Earth's reflectiveness are caused by something on the Earth.

Specifically, there has been a reduction of bright, reflective low-lying clouds over the eastern Pacific Ocean in the most recent years, according to satellite measurements made as part of NASA's Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project.

That's the same area, off the west coasts of North and South America, where increases in sea surface temperatures have been recorded because of the reversal of a climatic condition called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, with likely connections to global climate change.

The dimming of the Earth can also be seen in terms of how much more solar energy is being captured by Earth's climate system. Once this significant additional solar energy is in Earth's atmosphere and oceans, it may contribute to global warming, as the extra sunlight is of the same magnitude as the total anthropogenic climate forcing over the last two decades.

“It's actually quite concerning,” said Edward Schwieterman, a planetary scientist at the University of California at Riverside who was not involved in the new study. For some time, many scientists had hoped that a warmer Earth might lead to more clouds and higher albedo, which would then help to moderate warming and balance the climate system, he said. “But this shows the opposite is true.”

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AGU (www.agu.org) supports 130,000 enthusiasts to experts worldwide in Earth and space sciences. Through broad and inclusive partnerships, we advance discovery and solution science that accelerate knowledge and create solutions that are ethical, unbiased and respectful of communities and their values. Our programs include serving as a scholarly publisher, convening virtual and in-person events and providing career support. We live our values in everything we do, such as our net zero energy renovated building in Washington, D.C. and our Ethics and Equity Center, which fosters a diverse and inclusive geoscience community to ensure responsible conduct.


Notes for Journalists:
This research study is published with open access and is freely available. Download a pdf copy of the paper here. Neither the paper nor this press release is under embargo.

Paper title:
 “Earth's Albedo 1998–2017 as Measured From Earthshine”

Authors:

  • Philip Goode (corresponding author), A. Shoumko and S. Shoumko, Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Big Bear, CA, USA
  • E. Pallé and P. Montañes-Rodriguez, Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias (IAC), La Laguna, Spain, and Departamento de Astrofísica, Universidad de La Laguna (ULL), La Laguna, Spain
  • S. E. Koonin, Department of Physics, New York University, New York, NY, USA

AGU press contact:
Liza Lester, +1 (202) 777-7494, news@agu.org (UTC-4 hours)

Contact information for the researchers:

Philip Goode, Big Bear Solar Observatory, New Jersey Institute of Technology, philip.r.goode@njit.edu (UTC-4 hours)
Enric Pallé, Instituto de Astrofísica de Canarias (IAC), La Laguna, Spain, and Departamento de Astrofísica, Universidad de La Laguna (ULL), La Laguna, Spain, epalle@iac.es (UTC+1 hour)
Steven Koonin, New York University, steven.koonin@nyu.edu (UTC-4 hours)

 This press release and accompanying multimedia are available online at:
https://news.agu.org/press-release/Earth-is-dimming-due-to-climate-change

Fox News anchor attacks New Jersey's school nutrition program: 'Kids are going to grow up thinking lunch is free!'
RAW STORY
September 30, 2021



Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum on Thursday expressed distress at the state of New Jersey for having school nutrition programs in which children do not have to pay money to get fed.

While speaking with former Trump economic adviser Larry Kudlow, MacCallum complained about giving out school lunches without requiring payment.

"What kills me is now that there's a free lunch program in New Jersey, and it's for everyone!" she said. "Even if you don't need help to send your child's lunch to school. So those kids are all going to grow up thinking school lunch is free! And then, God help the person who comes along and tries to take that away, Larry!"

Kudlow then said that the lunch program wasn't "free" and predicted New Jersey residents would "pay for it with higher taxes and higher inflation."

He also said that "commonsense Americans know that this is not right, they don't want big government socialism!"

Watch the video below.





  • TANSTAAFL by Robert Heinlein from The Moon is a Harsh Mistress

    www.technovelgy.com/ct/content.asp?Bnum=735

    TANSTAAFL by Robert Heinlein from The Moon is a Harsh Mistress. TANSTAAFL. There ain't no such thing as a free lunch. An essential element in the basic Heinlein philosophy; this is (as far as I know) the first appearance of this acronym. "Gospodin," he said presently, "you used an odd word earlier--odd to me, I mean..."

  • There ain't no such thing as a free lunch - Wikipedia

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TANSTAAFL

    The "free lunch" refers to the once-common tradition of saloons in the United States providing a "free" lunch to patrons who had purchased at least one drink. Many foods on offer were high in salt (e.g., ham, cheese, and salted crackers), so those who ate them ended up buying a lot of beer. Rudyard Kipling, writing in 1891, noted how he




  • Head in the sky: 8-year-old Brazilian girl dubbed world's youngest astronomer

    Agence France-Presse
    September 30, 2021

    Brazilian 8-year-old astronomer Nicole Oliveira poses for a picture with her telescope in Fortaleza, Brazil, on September 21, 2021
     Jarbas Oliveira AFP

    When Nicole Oliveira was just learning to walk, she would throw up her arms to reach for the stars in the sky.

    Today, at just eight years of age, the Brazilian girl is known as the world's youngest astronomer, looking for asteroids as part of a NASA-affiliated program, attending international seminars and meeting with her country's top space and science figures.

    In Oliveira's room, filled with posters of the solar system, miniature rockets and Star Wars figures, Nicolinha, as she is affectionately known, works on her computer studying images of the sky on two large screens.

    The project, called Asteroid Hunters, is meant to introduce young people to science by giving them a chance to make space discoveries of their own.

    It is run by the International Astronomical Search Collaboration, a citizen science program affiliated with NASA, in partnership with Brazil's ministry of science.

    Beaming with pride, Nicolinha told AFP she has already found 18 asteroids.

    "I will give them the names of Brazilian scientists, or members of my family, like my mom or my dad," said the lively girl with dark brown hair and a high-pitched voice.

    Eight-year-old Nicole Oliveira, known as Nicolinha, has been dubbed the world's youngest astronomer 
    Jarbas Oliveira AFP

    If her findings are certified, which may take several years, Oliveira will become the youngest person in the world to officially discover an asteroid, breaking the record of 18-year-old Italian Luigi Sannino.

    "She really has an eye. She immediately spots points in the images that look like asteroids and often advises her classmates when they are not sure they have really found any", said Heliomarzio Rodrigues Moreira, Oliveira's astronomy teacher at a private school in the city of Fortaleza in northeastern Brazil, which she is attending thanks to a scholarship.

    "The most important thing is that she shares her knowledge with other children. She contributes to the dissemination of science," added Rodrigues Moreira.

    - 'Passion for astronomy' -

    Nicolinha's family relocated to Fortaleza from their hometown of Maceio, about 1,000 kilometers away, at the beginning of this year, after Nicolinha received a scholarship to attend the prestigious school. Her father, a computer scientist, was allowed to keep his job and telework.

    "I would also like all children in Brazil to have access to science," says Nicole Oliveira 

    "When she was two, she would raise her arms to the sky and ask me, 'Mom, give me a star,' said her mother, Zilma Janaca, 43, who works in the craft industry.

    "We understood that this passion for astronomy was serious when she asked us for a telescope as a birthday present when she turned four. I didn't even really know what a telescope was," Janaca added.

    Nicolinha was so set on getting a telescope that she told her parents she would swap it for all her future birthday parties. Still, such a gift was too expensive for the family and the girl got it only when she turned 7 and all her friends pooled money for the purchase, her mother said.

    As she continued her studies, Nicolinha enrolled in an astronomy course that had to lower its age limit for students down from 12.

    On her YouTube channel, Nicolinha has interviewed influential figures like the Brazilian astronomer Duilia de Mello, who took part in the discovery of a supernova called SN 1997D.


    Last year, Oliveira traveled to Brasilia to meet with the minister of science as well as with the astronaut Marcos Pontes, the only Brazilian to date to have been to space.

    Brazilian 8-year-old astronomer Nicole Oliveira works on her computer at her house trying to discover asteroids as part of a NASA-affiliated educational program
     Jarbas Oliveira AFP

    As for her own ambitions, Nicolinha wants to become an aerospace engineer.

    "I want to build rockets. I would love to go to the Kennedy Space Center at NASA in Florida to see their rockets," she said.

    "I would also like all children in Brazil to have access to science," she says.

    © 2021 AFP
    Exclusive-The king of oil bets on batteries for a green world
    Reuters
    September 30, 2021


    By Dmitry Zhdannikov

    LONDON (Reuters) - Alex Beard is losing his thirst for oil.

    Once one of the world's most powerful oil traders, the former Glencore executive is now raising money to build a portfolio of strategic battery sites across the United Kingdom to support the renewable energy industry.

    In his first interview since leaving the commodities giant in 2019, billionaire Beard said his Adaptogen Capital investment fund planned to build storage with a capacity of at least 500 megawatts (MW) to power homes when grid supplies fall short.

    In his heyday at Glencore, Beard's team was trading as much as 7% of the world's oil. The fact he is turning to infrastructure to support renewables is another sign of the way the wind is blowing for the global energy industry.

    "I have time for a second career in energy markets. It won't be oil and gas but it will be the transition away from carbon that will be most relevant for the next 25 years," he told Reuters at his offices off Regent Street in London.

    Adaptogen Capital's fund raising drive comes at a time when the United Kingdom's energy industry is facing one of its worst crises for decades. A perfect storm of low gas supplies globally has sent prices surging while wind and nuclear power have been unable to take up the slack.

    "The current crisis gives you a taste of what we will be experiencing more and more often," said Beard, who is 54. "Batteries provide you with stability when the grid becomes unstable and are key enabling assets in the energy transition."

    As economies move away from fossil fuels, power grids are becoming increasingly important and governments and companies are looking at how to make them more resilient to avoid the supply outages and price volatility that have plagued networks from China to California in the past year.

    Supplies of renewable energy like wind and solar can fluctuate wildly depending on the weather and the peaks and troughs don't necessarily correspond with demand so battery storage has long been seen as a way to help cushion shocks.

    'VOLATILITY BOX'


    At the moment, the United Kingdom has 1.1 gigawatts (GW) of operational battery capacity to store power that can then be fed back into the grid when required. An additional 15 GW of capacity is under construction or being planned, much of it by companies also investing in renewable power assets.

    Beard said Adaptogen's 500 MW of storage will use lithium-ion battery technology. That would be enough to supply about 750,000 homes in the United Kingdom, according to a Reuters calculation based on National Grid data.

    The National Grid has estimated that under a scenario where the country decarbonises rapidly, it could need more than 40 GW of storage capacity by 2050.

    "The world has learnt how to build renewables at a large scale and now we need to build enough storage to accelerate that transition to net zero," said Beard.

    He also said renewable power companies have a long way to go to fully understand and integrate trading and price volatility into their operations - the kind of risks that have felled nine energy suppliers in Britain this month as wholesale power and gas prices soar.

    At the moment, renewable power companies rarely face spot price risks as they operate under government-guaranteed contracts, which has allowed them to stay competitive with fossil fuels, he said.

    But as renewable output grows and government price support expires, the green energy industry would face a steep learning curve to understand how to hedge price volatility better, said Beard, who spent much of his career as a trader.

    "Batteries can also be viewed as a volatility trading box for the green energy industry and a crucial asset to add to wind and solar generation," he said.

    The battery response to supply and demand takes milliseconds and can be executed by algorithmic software to take advantage of power market volatility, as opposed to analogue instructions to ramp up output at a traditional fossil-fuel power plant.

    Beard, who holds a stake of about 2% in Glencore worth $1.2 billion at current prices, has also co-sponsored Energy Transition Partners, a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) listed in Amsterdam.

    The blank cheque company raised 175 million euros ($205 million) when it went public in July and is looking at targets in the renewables, electric vehicles and storage asset sectors.

    Beard says oil and gas will continue to play a vital part in global energy supply but renewables will grow faster and hundreds of billions of dollars will be spent on the energy transition away from carbon in the coming years.

    ($1 = 1.1714 euros)

    (Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov; Editing by David Clarke)
    Great-grandmother keeps Indian martial art alive
    Agence France-Presse
    October 01, 2021

    Meenakshi Amma practitioner and teacher of 'Kalaripayattu' has trained since she was seven years old Manjunath Kiran AFP

    Deftly parrying her son with a bamboo cane, Meenakshi Amma belies her 78 years with her prowess at kalari, thought to be India's oldest martial art.

    The great-grandmother in Kerala, southern India, has been a driving force in the revival of kalaripayattu, as the ancient practice is also known, and in encouraging girls to take it up.

    "I started kalari when I was seven years old. I am 78 now. I am still practising, learning and teaching," the matriarch of the Kadathanad Kalari Sangham school, founded by her late husband in 1949, told AFP.

    "When you open the newspapers, you only see news of violence against women," she said.

    Kalari, which contains elements of dance and yoga, can involve weapons such as swords, shields and staffs Manjunath Kiran AFP

    "When women learn this martial art, they feel physically and mentally strong and it makes them confident to work and travel alone."

    Kalari, which contains elements of dance and yoga, can involve weapons such as swords, shields and staffs. Reputedly 3,000 years old, and mentioned in ancient Hindu scriptures, it remains infused with religion in the present day.


    India's British colonial rulers banned the practice in 1804 but it survived underground before a revival in the early 20th century and after independence in 1947.

    In recent decades it has come on in leaps and bounds, thanks in no small measure to Meenakshi, who won a national award in 2017.

    India's British colonial rulers banned the practice in 1804 but it survived underground before a revival in the early 20th century Manjunath Kiran AFP


    Now it is recognised as a sport and practised all over India.

    Inside Meenakshi's kalari hall, her bare-chested son Sanjeev Kumar, a lungi tied around his waist, puts barefoot pupils -- boys and girls alike -- through their paces on the ochre-red earth floor.

    "There are two divisions in kalaripayattu -- one is that kalaripayattu is peace and the other is kalaripayattu in war," said the "gurukkal" (master).


    "It's an art that purifies mind, body and soul, improves concentration, speed and patience, regenerates physical and mental energy.

    "When totally connected mentally and physically to kalari, then the opponent disappears, the body becomes eyes."

    The practice is reputedly 3,000 years old, and mentioned in ancient Hindu scriptures Manjunath Kiran AFP


    "It's a form of poetry," said civil engineer Alaka S. Kumar, 29, daughter of Kumar and the mother to some of Meenakshi's many great-grandchildren.

    "I am going to teach kalari, with my brother. We have to take over. Otherwise it is gone."

    © 2021 AFP
    Scarlett Johansson and Walt Disney Co. settle lawsuit over "Black Widow" release

    SEPTEMBER 30, 2021 / 11:23 PM / AP

    Scarlett Johansson and the Walt Disney Co. on Thursday settled her lawsuit over the streaming release of "Black Widow," bringing a swift end to what had begun as the first major fight between a studio and star over recent changes in rollout plans for films.

    Johansson filed the lawsuit in Los Angeles Superior Court two months ago, saying the streaming release of the Marvel movie breached her contract and deprived her of potential earnings.

    Terms of the deal were not disclosed, but the two sides released a joint statement in which they pledged to continue working together.

    "I am happy to have resolved our differences with Disney," said Johansson, who has played Natasha Romanoff, aka Black Widow, in nine movies going back to 2010's "Iron Man 2." "I'm incredibly proud of the work we've done together over the years and have greatly enjoyed my creative relationship with the team. I look forward to continuing our collaboration."

    Alan Bergman, chairman of Disney Studios Content, said he is "pleased that we have been able to come to a mutual agreement."

    "We appreciate her contributions to the Marvel Cinematic Universe and look forward to working together on a number of upcoming projects," Bergman said.

    The lawsuit said Johansson's contract guaranteed an exclusive theatrical release, with her potential earnings tied to the box office performance of the film.

    But as it has with other recent releases since the coronavirus pandemic began, Disney released the film simultaneously in theaters and through its streaming service Disney+ for a $30 rental.

    The rhetoric of the lawsuit and Disney's response suggested a long and ugly battle was ahead.

    "In the months leading up to this lawsuit, Ms. Johansson gave Disney and Marvel every opportunity to right their wrong and make good on Marvel's promise," the lawsuit said. "Disney intentionally induced Marvel's breach of the Agreement, without justification, in order to prevent Ms. Johansson from realizing the full benefit of her bargain with Marvel."

    Disney at the time said the lawsuit had "no merit whatsoever," adding that it was "especially sad and distressing in its callous disregard for the horrific and prolonged global effects of the COVID-19 pandemic."

    Disney said the changed release plan "significantly enhanced her ability to earn additional compensation on top of the $20M she has received to date."

    Delayed more than a year because of COVID-19, "Black Widow" debuted to what was then a pandemic-best of $80 million in North America and $78 million from international theaters on July 9. But theatrical grosses declined sharply after that. In its second weekend in release, the National Association of Theater Owners issued a rare statement criticizing the strategy.

    Revised hybrid release strategies have occasionally led to public spats between stars, filmmakers and financiers who are unhappy with potential lost revenues and their lack of say in such strategies. But none were as big or as public as Johansson's lawsuit.
    Yellen signals support for Harriet Tubman on $20 bill
    Agence France-Presse
    October 01, 2021

    Harriet Tubman statue in Harlem, New York 

    Putting Harriet Tubman, a Black woman who escaped slavery and became a leader of the pre-Civil War abolitionist movement, on the $20 bill would be an "honor" but designing banknotes takes time, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday.

    Shortly after taking office in January, President Joe Biden's administration announced that it would expedite plans to put Tubman on the bill that is among the most commonly used in the country.

    The project, launched by former president Barack Obama but significantly delayed under former president Donald Trump, came back to the forefront after historic demonstrations denouncing racism and police violence against people of color last year.

    "I couldn't possibly think of a better way to honor Harriet Tubman's legacy and her courage in fighting for the freedom of the enslaved people and women's right to vote then seeing her on a $20 bill," Yellen said in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee.

    However, she warned that "issuing notes is a very lengthy process. It involves collaboration among a number of different agencies and it's necessary to design counterfeit features."

    Tubman was born into slavery in 1822 but escaped. She returned multiple times to the slave-owning southern states to help dozens of others flee bondage, either to the northern United States or Canada, both before and during the 1861-1865 Civil War.

    During the war she even helped with a raid on Confederate troops, and after the war, she became a champion of women's rights before her death in 1913.

    Her life, and in particular her work helping enslaved people escape as a conductor on the "Underground Railroad," were featured in a 2019 Hollywood biopic.

    Tubman's image was set to replace the portrait of Andrew Jackson, the US president behind the "Trail of Tears" that drove dispossessed Native American tribes from the southeast of the expanding country, and who was much admired by Trump.

    His Treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin announced in 2019 that the revamp of the $20 bill was being put off until 2028, citing "security issues" around counterfeiting.


    Yellen appeared alongside Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell days after two regional Fed bank presidents suddenly retired after facing questions over their stock trading activity.

    The central bank has faced criticism over the lack of diversity among its top officials, and in response to a question from a lawmaker, Powell promised to consider appointing people of color to replace them.

    "I can absolutely guarantee you that we will work hard in both of these processes to find and give a fair shot to diverse candidates for these two jobs; it will be a big focus of both of these processes," Powell said.
    Ocasio-Cortez blasts anti-abortion Texas ob-gyn during House panel

    Dylan Stableford
    ·Senior Writer
    Thu, September 30, 2021, 12:57 PM


    During a House Oversight Committee hearing on abortion Thursday, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., excoriated an anti-abortion witness who had asserted that women who have been raped have ample time to seek abortion care under a controversial Texas law that bans the procedure after six weeks.

    “Six weeks pregnant is two weeks late for one’s period,” Ocasio-Cortez said. “When you are raped, you don’t always know what happened to you. And I speak about this as a survivor. You are in so much shock.”

    Ocasio-Cortez pointed out that most victims of sexual assault are assaulted by someone they know.

    “This myth that it’s some person lurking on a street or in a parking lot waiting to sexually assault you — that myth only benefits the abusers in power who want you to think that’s how it happens,” she said. “It’s your friend. It’s a boyfriend. It’s a boss. It’s a legislator. You are in so much shock at what’s happened to you, sometimes it takes years to realize what actually went on.”


    Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at a House hearing about abortion on Thursday.
     (House Oversight Committee via YouTube)

    Ocasio-Cortez argued that two weeks is not nearly enough time to recognize an unwanted pregnancy.

    “I’m a buck-15. I’m 115 pounds. You look at me funny, I'm two weeks late for my period,” she said. “And you’re supposed to expect me to know I'm pregnant? Or the stress of a sexual assault? That makes you two weeks late for your period, whether you’re pregnant or not.”

    Earlier in the hearing, Dr. Ingrid Skop, a Texas-based ob-gyn, defended the state's newly passed Senate Bill 8, which bans abortion after six weeks and makes no exceptions for cases of rape or incest.

    Skop said that women often know when they are raped and have time to figure out if they’re pregnant.

    “In the case of a rape, women generally know that they’ve been raped,” she said.

    The Texas law, she said, “gives enough time for a woman who knows she’s been raped to determine that she is pregnant.”

    Ocasio-Cortez said it was “unbelievable” that the Republicans on the committee would call a witness who would be so “irresponsible and hurtful to survivors across this country.”
    NYT unmasks researchers who discovered Trump computers talking to Russian bank in 2016
    Bob Brigham
    September 30, 2021

    US President Donald Trump (right) and Russia's President Vladimir Putin talk during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' summit in the central Vietnamese city of Danang on November 11, 2017 (AFP Photo/JORGE SILVA)

    One of the largest unanswered questions about former President Donald Trump and Russia came into sharper focus on Thursday after The New York Times published a bombshell new report by Charlie Savage and Adam Goldman.

    The story focused on the mystery of Trump Organization computer servers communicating with "Kremlin-linked" Alfa Bank in Russia.

    Interest in the case has grown since special counsel John Durham indicted Hillary Clinton 2016 campaign lawyer Michael Sussmann for allegedly lying to the FBI when he came forward to alert them to the unusual traffic.

    On Thursday, CNN reported Durham had issued new subpoenas in the case and noted it was "an indication that Durham could be trying to build a broader criminal case, according to people briefed on the matter."

    The researchers who uncovered the traffic were not identified by Durham in the indictment, but were unmasked by The Times.

    "Originator-1" is April Lorenzen, the chief data scientist at Zetalytics. "Researcher-1" is Georgia Tech computer scientist Manos Antonakakis. "Researcher-2" is David Dagon, a Georgia Institute of Technology data scientist.

    The researchers are standing by their findings.

    Dagon's lawyer told the newspaper the results "have been validated and are reproducible. The findings of the researchers were true then and remain true today; reports that these findings were innocuous or a hoax are simply wrong."

    The newspaper noted what was going on remains a mystery.

    "The F.B.I., which had already started its Trump-Russia investigation before it heard about the possible Trump-Alfa connections, quickly dismissed the suspicions, apparently concluding the interactions were probably caused by marketing emails sent by an outside firm using a domain registered to the Trump Organization," the newspaper reported. "A 2018 analysis commissioned by the Senate, made public this month, detailed technical reasons to doubt that marketing emails were the cause."

    And the report noted the Alfa Bank server traffic was not the only thing discovered and taken to the federal government.

    "Their other set of concerns centered on data suggesting that a YotaPhone — a Russian-made smartphone rarely seen in the United States — had been used from networks serving the White House, Trump Tower and Spectrum Health, a Michigan hospital company whose server had also interacted with the Trump server," the newspaper reported. "Mr. Sussmann relayed their YotaPhone findings to counterintelligence officials at the C.I.A. in February 2017, the people said. It is not clear whether the government ever investigated them."

    The newspaper also reported on how the Pentagon helped discover the traffic.

    "The involvement of the researchers traces back to the spring of 2016. Darpa, the Pentagon's research funding agency, wanted to commission data scientists to develop the use of so-called DNS logs, records of when servers have prepared to communicate with other servers over the internet, as a tool for hacking investigations," the newspaper reported. "Darpa identified Georgia Tech as a potential recipient of funding and encouraged researchers there to develop examples."

    While sifting through the data, Lorenzen "noticed an odd pattern: a server called mail1.trump-email.com appeared to be communicating almost exclusively with servers at Alfa Bank and Spectrum Health."


    Trump's Russia special counsel John Durham is misrepresenting mysterious Trump-Russia link, researchers say


    Peter Weber, Senior editor
    Fri, October 1, 2021, 12:24 

    John Dunham U.S. Attorney's Office, District of Connecticut, 
    Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

    One of the many subplots of the 2016 election was the mystery of whether Russia's Alfa Bank was secretly communicating with a server in Trump Tower, an apparent connection uncovered by four computer researchers who passed on their data to the FBI in September 2016. Five years later, "the data remains a mystery," The New York Times reports, but Special Counsel John Durham, appointed under former President Donald Trump to investigate the origins of the Trump-Russia investigation, cast doubt on the researchers and their analysis in an indictment he handed down in mid-September.

    The data researchers hit back Thursday, saying that despite misleading, cherry-picked snippets of their emails that Durham included in his 27-page indictment of cybersecurity lawyer Michael Sussmann, they stand by their analysis that Alfa Bank and Trump's company were communicating and trying to hide it, their lawyers told the Times and CNN.

    Sussmann, then working at the firm Perkins Coie, brought the findings from the four researchers to the FBI in September 2016. At the time, his clients included both Hillary Clinton's campaign and Rodney Joffe, an internet entrepreneur and one of the four data researchers. Durham's grand jury indicted Sussmann on one count of lying to the FBI for allegedly omitting his ties to the Clinton campaign. Sussmann says he was only representing Joffe at the meeting and denies lying to the FBI.

    It isn't clear why Durham, whose investigation is shrouded in secrecy, included the long sections on the Alfa Bank research in his Sussmann indictment. But "more than two years after being commissioned by then Attorney General William Barr to investigate whether federal authorities improperly targeted the Trump campaign, Durham has little to show for his efforts," CNN recaps. "His special counsel probe, which has lasted longer than Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation, has so far brought only two lying charges against little-known figures, including the case against Sussmann, who has pleaded not guilty."

    Since indicting Sussmann, Durham has subpoenaed more information from Perkins Coie, CNN and the Times report.

    The Sussmann case has been assigned to U.S. District Judge Christopher "Casey" Cooper in Washington, D.C. Cooper "will likely weigh during court proceedings before a trial whether Sussmann disclosing his client to the FBI mattered," CNN reports. "If Cooper allows the case to move forward, he could kick that question to a trial jury."
    White terror: Millions of Americans say they'd support violence to restore Trump to power

    "Justice for J6" was a flop — but the Jan. 6 insurrection has fueled growing support for white extremist violence

    By CHAUNCEY DEVEGA
    PUBLISHED OCTOBER 1, 2021
    SALON
    A supporter of US President Donald Trump wears a gas mask and holds a bust of him after he and hundreds of others stormed stormed the Capitol building on January 6, 2021 in Washington, DC. (ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP via Getty Images)

    Two weekends ago, Trump loyalists gathered in Washington for the "Justice for J6" rally, a supposed show of solidarity with the "political prisoners" arrested for their alleged (or confessed) participation in the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.

    Trump's Republican-fascists and their propagandists have elevated these hooligans, vandals and (in many cases) terrorists to the status of martyrs and patriots as a way of legitimizing their anti-democratic movement, creating sympathy among Trump's faithful that can be exploited for fundraising and, of course, recruiting and encouraging more extremists to the cause.

    Despite warnings from the Capitol Police, DHS and other authorities that more violence was possible, the rally on Sept. 18 was a tame and peaceful affair. No more than a few hundred Trump cultists attended, greatly outnumbered by law enforcement and the news media. This low turnout was widely mocked among the chattering class, liberals and progressives of the "resistance" and others who oppose Trump and his movement.

    As I have argued before, such reactions are shortsighted and ill-advised — another example among many of the way America's political class, news media and the public at large still does not understand the nature of the threat they face from the Republican-fascist movement and the larger white right.

    Experts on domestic terrorism have repeatedly warned that in the aftermath of Jan. 6 many militant Trumpists and other neofascists are operating more covertly, perhaps by breaking up into small cells that are difficult for law enforcement to track and apprehend. Right-wing militants and terrorists are more likely to attack "soft targets" as opposed to widely publicized events and locations where law enforcement is sure to be present.

    As seen in Michigan and elsewhere, right-wing militants are likely to focus their attention at the state and local level where law enforcement assets are more porous and likely targets are, in general, more vulnerable to attack.

    But in fact the real power of Jan. 6 and its aftermath is difficult to measure by such standards. Those events, and Republican efforts to rewrite the history of that day, have increasingly normalized right-wing political violence as acceptable — if not, in fact, a preferred and desired way of obtaining and keeping political power.

    In keeping with Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels' "Big Lie" strategy, a large majority of Republican and Trump voters actually believe that the 2020 presidential election was "stolen" from Donald Trump — and, in effect, from them as well. Public opinion polls also show that a significant percentage of Republicans believe that the violence and coup attempt on Jan. 6 was a "patriotic" or at least understandable action that was necessary to "defend" democracy and Trump's presidency.

    On a daily basis, neofascist white supremacist opinion leaders and other propagandists on Fox News and across the right-wing propaganda echo chamber are radicalizing millions of white Americans. Most will not personally commit acts of violence against nonwhites, Muslims, "radical socialist Democrats" and others designated to be the enemy. But they are ever more likely to tolerate or condone such crimes.

    Ultimately, fascism is a type of political and social poison which manifests as violence and other antisocial and anti-human behavior. New research by Robert Pape and the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats demonstrates how far that poison has spread among the American people.

    In a new essay at The Conversation, Pape summarizes these findings, beginning with the most startling result:

    We have found that 47 million American adults – nearly 1 in 5 – agree with the statement that "the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president." Of those, 21 million also agree that "use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency."

    Our survey found that many of these 21 million people with insurrectionist sentiments have the capacity for violent mobilization. At least 7 million of them already own a gun, and at least 3 million have served in the U.S. military and so have lethal skills. Of those 21 million, 6 million said they supported right-wing militias and extremist groups, and 1 million said they are themselves or personally know a member of such a group, including the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys.

    Only a small percentage of people who hold extremist views ever actually commit acts of violence, but our findings reveal how many Americans hold views that could turn them toward insurrection.

    Pape's polling found that 9% of American adults agreed that "Use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency, while 25% agreed that "The 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president."

    Pape reports a margin of error of 4 percentage points, meaning that the proportion of American adults who hold both those views is somewhere between 4% and 12%. "The best single figure," he writes, "is the middle of that range, 21 million." He continues:

    People who said force is justified to restore Trump were consistent in their insurrectionist sentiments: Of them, 90% also see Biden as illegitimate, and 68% also think force may be needed to preserve America's traditional way of life.

    In an interview with the CBS News podcast "Intelligence Matters," Pape further explained what this new research reveals about the relationship between the white supremacist "great replacement" theory, the QAnon cult and right-wing violence:

    Sixty-three percent of the 21 million adamant insurrectionists in the country believe in the "Great Replacement," the idea that the rights of whites will be overtaken by the rights of Blacks and Hispanics. The second most important driver was a QAnon belief, where 53 percent of the 21 million believed that our government is run and controlled by a satanic cult of pedophiles. Those are the two radical beliefs that are really ... the key drivers of the insurrectionist sentiments in the country today.
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    Pape also sounded the alarm about the prospects for right-wing political violence and terrorism in the months leading up to the 2022 midterm elections:

    This is about, what are the prospects for other instances of collective violence, especially related to elections going forward? ... I think that we need to be aware that we are moving into already a politically tumultuous 2022 election season just in the last month with the events in Afghanistan, which has created tremendous amount of anger in many of our military circles, military communities; with the new mandates for COVID, which President Biden has just announced, which are already generating tremendous pushback against the federal government. ... We need to understand the risks that that could break out into violence.

    For all of these escalating warnings about the potential for serious right-wing political violence, America's political class remains largely unwilling to properly respond to the clear and present danger. Such an outcome is in part explained by the very language that is most often used in these discussions.
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    For example, "right-wing terrorism" or "right-wing extremism" is often presented in a race-neutral fashion.

    A more accurate description would be to say "white right-wing terrorism" or "white supremacist violence." Similarly, the events of Jan. 6 could be described as a "white insurrection" or "white riot," which more clearly captures the role of race and racism in the violence of both that day and the Age of Trump as a whole.

    To be clear, there are Black and brown people who belong to Trump's cult. Some are among his most militant supporters. Regardless of their skin color, such people are loyal to Whiteness as a social and political force. As such, Black and brown Trumpists and other neofascists want to access white power and white privilege for themselves. For them, the end goal is to somehow "earn" a type of transactional honorary whiteness.

    Trumpism and other forms of American neofascism and racial authoritarianism are an extreme personal and existential problem for nonwhite people and others who are marginalized as the Other. They are also a problem spawned by and of White America.

    Until that distinction is internalized by America's elites, and widely accepted as common sense by the American people, neofascism will continue to gain momentum and the country's democracy crisis will continue to escalate toward full-on disaster, from which no return to "normal" will be possible. America's past and America's present (again) runs along and through the color line.


    CHAUNCEY DEVEGA is a politics staff writer for Salon. His essays can also be found at Chaunceydevega.com. He also hosts a weekly podcast, The Chauncey DeVega Show. Chauncey can be followed on Twitter and Facebook.