Saturday, October 01, 2022

WORSE POLLING THAN BIDEN, OR TRUMP

Truss Should Resign as UK Prime Minister, More Than Half of Britons Say

CALL AN ELECTION



Alex Morales
Fri, September 30, 2022 
(Bloomberg) --

More than half of Britons think Liz Truss should quit as UK premier, according to a YouGov poll that adds to her woes less than a month into the job.

The survey on Friday underscores the damage done to Truss’s standing and that of her Conservative Party by the huge package of unfunded tax cuts her government unveiled a week ago, triggering a selloff in the pound and government bonds and leaving her party trailing the opposition Labour by a record distance.

Some 51% of almost 5,000 Britons surveyed said the prime minister should quit, with 54% saying Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng should resign.

Even in the face of a backlash from markets, Tory Members of Parliament and the electorate, Truss and Kwarteng so far have stood firm behind their fiscal package -- which benefitted the wealthiest more than lower earners -- insisting they’ll come forward with a medium-term plan for the economy and a set of independent economic forecasts on Nov. 23.

The beleaguered prime minister now heads into her Conservative Party’s annual conference on Sunday with the challenge of restoring her standing among her MPs and persuading the financial markets that the Tories still stand for the responsible management of the economy.

The YouGov poll also showed Truss is hemorrhaging support among those who voted Conservative in the last general election in 2019. Some 36% of Tory voters said Truss should go and 41% called for Kwarteng’s departure.

The latest survey piles the misery on the Tories after a YouGov poll of voting intentions on Thursday gave Labour a record 33-point lead.

SIR KEIR'S LUCKY DAY

UK's Labour has 33-pt lead over ruling Conservatives -YouGov poll

Britain's Labour Party annual conference in Liverpool

Thu, September 29, 2022 

LONDON (Reuters) -Britain's opposition Labour party has surged to a 33-point lead over the ruling Conservatives, according to a YouGov poll on Thursday, after days of chaos in financial markets triggered by the government's planned tax cuts.

The lead was a record high share for Labour in any YouGov poll as well as the highest figure the party has ever recorded in any published survey since the late 1990s, YouGov said.

Earlier on Thursday, British Prime Minister Liz Truss defended her controversial plan to reignite economic growth after huge tax cuts unveiled last week hammered the value of the pound and government bond prices.

The YouGov poll of voting intention conducted over Wednesday and Thursday showed 54% support for Labour and 21% for the Conservatives. It was a survey of more than 1,700 British adults.

Another YouGov poll earlier this week had shown 45% of voters backing Labour compared to 28% support for the Conservatives.

Truss took office on Sept. 6 after defeating former finance minister Rishi Sunak to win the Conservative Party's leadership contest. The next national election is likely to be held in 2024.

At least two Conservative lawmakers - both of whom had backed Sunak during the party leadership race - publicly criticised Truss's economic plans following the release of the poll.

"This is now a serious crisis with a lot at stake," Conservative lawmaker George Freeman said on Twitter. "The economic package of borrowing & tax cuts announced last week clearly can't command market or voter confidence."

Another lawmaker from Truss's party, Julian Smith, urged the government to reverse the abolition of the 45% top rate of income tax.

Three other polls on Thursday also showed large leads for Labour - Survation put Labour's lead over the Conservatives at 21 points; Deltapoll showed Labour 19 points ahead; and Redfield & Wilton Strategies had Labour 17 points ahead.

Opposition leader Keir Starmer said during his party's annual conference this week that it was Labour's best chance to win power since 2010, following four straight election defeats.

(Reporting by Sachin Ravikumar; editing by Michael Holden, Kirsten Donovan)


BUYERS REMORSE

Rishi Sunak would be a better PM than Liz Truss, say Tory voters


Nick Gutteridge
Fri, September 30, 2022

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss - Dan Kitwood/Getty Images Europe

Conservative voters think Rishi Sunak would have made a better prime minister than Liz Truss, new polling for The Telegraph reveals.

The survey, on the eve of the Tory conference in Birmingham, shows just a third of those who backed the party in 2019 think she is a good leader.

Over half think she has made a bad incumbent in No 10 - almost as high as the number who would say the same about Sir Keir Starmer.

The results will lead to further soul-searching within the party about the decision by members to elect Ms Truss rather than the former chancellor.

Tory MPs in a mutinous mood over the fallout from the mini-Budget have discussed returning to a system where they pick the leader in future.

It has also emerged some rebel Conservatives are in talks with Labour over voting down her economic plan, especially the abolition of the 45p income tax rate.

After a dramatic week, Labour now holds a colossal lead on nine key criteria, including who the public trust more to manage the economy.

Amongst those who voted Conservative at the last election, a mere 34 per cent said they thought Ms Truss made a good Prime Minister.

That compares with 60 per cent for Boris Johnson, her predecessor, and 45 per cent for Mr Sunak, who she vanquished in the leadership race.

She fares even worse among the wider public, with only one in five thinking she is a good leader and 63 per cent calling her a bad one.
Sir Keir has positive rating

Mr Johnson and Mr Sunak both fare better with the electorate, scoring 31 per cent each, but by far the most choice is Sir Keir on 46 per cent.

The Labour leader is the only one with a positive net rating scoring +14, while Mr Sunak is on -21, Mr Johnson on -31 and Ms Truss on -43.

In a dire set of results for the Tories, the study shows how their reputation for competence has been shredded over the last 21 months.

The poll by JL Partners asked voters to rate the two main parties on nine key areas including the economy, NHS, and social equality.

It reveals in January 2020 the Conservatives held a commanding 22-point lead in terms of who the public thought was “best for the economy”.

That had halved to nine per cent by January of this year and has now been overhauled, with Labour sitting a comfortable 13 points ahead.


Ratings plummet

It is a similar story on who voters see as “competent and capable”, with the Tories slumping from a 20 per cent advantage to trailing by 13 points.

The Conservatives held a 15-point lead on which party would “move the country in the right direction” and are now 16 per cent behind Labour.

When it comes to who is “best for protecting and creating jobs” they have also plummeted from four per cent ahead to 19 points in arrears.

Meanwhile Sir Keir has widened the gap on who most shares voters’ values, is best for the NHS and will “stand up for people like me”.

In contrast, the number of people who see the Tories as “out of touch” has tripled to 37 points ahead since the start of 2020.

Back then Mr Johnson had just won a huge majority while Labour, led by Jeremy Corbyn, was seen as the most divided party by a 46-point margin.

But by January of this year the tables had reversed entirely, with the fallout from partygate seeing the Conservatives surge to a 21 per cent lead.
Electability ‘lost overnight’

The impression of the Tories as fractured has only grown since the ousting of the former prime minister and now stands at 27 per cent ahead.

James Johnson, who ran polling in Theresa May’s Number 10, said: “The drastic changes we are seeing in the fortunes of the Conservatives can be explained by this Telegraph poll.

“Labour now has a double-digit advantage on the economy, the first time it has led on this measure in this Parliament.

“And, since last month, the blame for economic woes has pivoted away from Russia and onto the Government itself.

“When the Conservatives lose their edge on the economy, they lose their electability overnight - and all signs are that we have seen exactly such a shift in the last few days.”

Half of voters want Truss to resign

Separate polling by the firm YouGov published on Friday afternoon painted an equally bleak picture for Ms Truss ahead of the conference.

It showed 51 per cent of Britons think the Prime Minister should resign, including 36 per cent of those who voted Conservative at the last election.

A third survey released by Stonehaven revealed Labour is now on course to win an outright majority at the next election.

The MRP poll - the same kind which correctly predicted the 2019 result - puts Sir Keir’s party on 332 seats and the Tories on 228.

Pandora Lefroy, the insight director at Stonehaven, said: “It has been a turbulent year for the Conservative party and that is being reflected in our election modelling which is showing, for the first time in 18 months, Labour having a path to an outright majority.

“A lot can change between now and the next General Election, but today we are seeing Red Wall voters are going back to their roots.

“Interestingly our data shows it is not their values that have changed, it’s simply that Labour is now seen as the party that best represents those values.”
Mini-budget not ‘executed competently’

Ms Truss faced a further backlash from angry Tory MPs on Friday with one grandee saying she has already lost the party at the next election.

Sir Charles Walker, a veteran backbencher, warned the Prime Minister she will face a “difficult time” getting the mini-Budget through Parliament.

He accused her and the Chancellor of “naivety” and “hubris” over the way it was announced, suggesting it was not “executed competently”.

“I don’t think I’ll be voting for these measures per se,” he told Times Radio when asked whether he was ready to rebel.

“I think the Government has learnt its lesson and will be amending them and doing some more thinking. If it doesn’t, it’s going to have a difficult time.”

Sir Charles warned that regardless the Tories have suffered a “cliff-edge collapse” and must start thinking about how to leave “some form of legacy” to Labour.

“I think it’s hard to construct an argument now that the Conservatives can win that general election. I suspect the conversation is how much do we lose it by?” he said.

Steve Double, a former environment minister, said he “can’t explain” the decision to axe the 45p tax rate to his constituents and Ms Truss “should reverse” it.

“At this particular moment, when so many households are facing huge pressures on their finances in the coming months…quite frankly I think it's a mistake,” he told BBC Cornwall.

The MP for St Austell said he won’t be attending this year’s conference, adding that he has “never known the party to be as divided as it is right now”.


THE UNDERSTATEMENT OF THE YEAR

Liz Truss admits £45bn mini-budget tax cuts did cause ‘disruption’

The Prime Minister has warned the country faces a “difficult winter” ahead.

George McMillan
SENIOR DIGITAL PRODUCER
PUBLISHED Saturday 01 October 2022 - 

Liz Truss has admitted Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget caused “disruption” but insisted they were right to act to get the economy moving and to protect families from soaring energy bills.

As Tories prepared to head to Birmingham for their annual conference, the Prime Minister warned the country faced a “difficult winter” ahead as she indicated she had no plans to reverse her tax-cutting agenda.

“I recognise there has been disruption but it was really, really important we were able to get help to families as soon as possible,” she said in a pooled interview with broadcasters on Friday.

“This is going to be a difficult winter and I am determined to do all I can to help families and help the economy at this time.”

Her comments came at the end of a tumultuous week which saw the pound slump to an all-time low against the dollar and the Bank of England forced to spend billions buying up government debt to prevent a collapse of the pensions industry.

The sell-off of sterling prompted fears that millions of mortgage holders could face crippling rises in their repayments as the Bank moves to ratchet up interest rates to shore up the currency and put a lid on inflation.

Prime Minister Liz Truss during a visit to the British Gas training academy Ian Vogler/Daily Mirror

The Chancellor insisted he will produce a “credible plan” to get the public finances back on track with a “commitment to spending discipline”. Owen Humphreys

The Chancellor insisted he will produce a “credible plan” to get the public finances back on track with a “commitment to spending discipline”.

“The British taxpayer expects their Government to work as efficiently and effectively as possible, and we will deliver on that expectation,” he said.

“Not all the measures we announced last week will be universally popular. But we had to do something different. We had no other choice.”

The turmoil erupted after markets took fright at Mr Kwarteng’s £45 billion package of unfunded tax cuts – the biggest in 50 years – while committing billions to capping energy bills for the next two years.

With the Tories tanking in the opinion polls – one showed Labour opening up a hitherto unthinkable 33-point lead – some Conservative MPs have been pressing for a change of course.

Despite having been in Downing Street for less than a month, some have questioned whether Ms Truss can now survive to the end of the year as the party has seen its reputation on the economy shredded.

The Prime Minister, however, insisted that Mr Kwarteng was right to cut taxes as part of their plan to drive up the UK’s sluggish rate of economic growth.

“What is important to me is that we get Britain’s economy back on track, that we keep taxes low, that we encourage investment into our country and that we get through these difficult times,” she said.

With some analysts warning of a squeeze on public spending to get debt under control, the Prime Minister again refused to commit to the annual uprating of benefits in line with inflation – something Rishi Sunak had promised to do when he was chancellor.

Pressed in her interview, Ms Truss said only that it was “something the Work and Pensions Secretary (Chloe Smith) is looking at”.

She added: “What is important to me is that we are fair in the decisions we make, but most importantly that we help families and businesses at this very difficult time with their energy prices.”

A key ally of the Prime Minister, Levelling Up Secretary Simon Clarke, however, went further suggesting the Government was looking to shrink the overall size of the state.

“I think it is important that we look at a state which is extremely large, and look at how we can make sure that it is in full alignment with a lower tax economy,” he told The Times.

Mr Kwarteng is due to publish a medium-term fiscal plan setting out how he intends to get debt falling as a proportion of GDP alongside an updated set of economic forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) on November 23.

The absence of new projections from the independent OBR was seen as one of the key reasons why the markets reacted so badly to the Chancellor’s mini-budget.

Ian Vogler/Daily Mirror

Some Tory MPs have been pressing him to bring forward the date of publication so as to restore market confidence in the Government.

After a highly unusual meeting on Friday with both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor, the head of the OBR, Richard Hughes, confirmed they would deliver their preliminary forecasts to the Treasury at the end of next week.

However, Mr Kwarteng has made clear that he wants to stick to the November 23 date to allow ministers to set out a series of supply side reforms to support the growth plan.



Liz Truss can go from zero to hero if she holds her nerve, says Mark Dolan


They include changes to the financial sector regulations, immigration and the planning rules, with Mr Clarke hinting they could include changes to the green belt.

“The fact the green belt is larger today than it was when Margaret Thatcher came to power is an extraordinary state of affairs,” he said.

“We need to look at a planning system where we make sensible adjustments which don’t threaten communities and most fundamentally are about going with popular consent, and actually creating incentives that allow local areas to back growth.”


UK
Brilliant Led by Donkeys graphic puts Tories’ tax-cutting budget in perspective

Liz Truss warned the country faced a “difficult winter” ahead as she indicated she had no plans to reverse her tax-cutting agenda.


LONDON ECONOMIC EYE


Liz Truss has admitted Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget caused “disruption” but insisted they were right to act to get the economy moving and to protect families from soaring energy bills.

As Tories prepared to head to Birmingham for their annual conference, the Prime Minister warned the country faced a “difficult winter” ahead as she indicated she had no plans to reverse her tax-cutting agenda.

“I recognise there has been disruption but it was really, really important we were able to get help to families as soon as possible,” she said in a pooled interview with broadcasters on Friday.


“This is going to be a difficult winter and I am determined to do all I can to help families and help the economy at this time.”

Her comments came at the end of a tumultuous week which saw the pound slump to an all-time low against the dollar and the Bank of England forced to spend billions buying up government debt to prevent a collapse of the pensions industry.

The sell-off of sterling prompted fears that millions of mortgage holders could face crippling rises in their repayments as the Bank moves to ratchet up interest rates to shore up the currency and put a lid on inflation.


The turmoil erupted after markets took fright at Mr Kwarteng’s £45 billion package of unfunded tax cuts – the biggest in 50 years – while committing billions to capping energy bills for the next two years.

Campaign group Led by Donkeys has put the numbers in the mini-budget in perspective with a brilliant graphic.


Check it out below:

UK

THIS IS THE STATE TRUSS WANTS TO CUT

Civil servants relying on food banks amid cost-of-living crisis – report

30 September 2022, 


Foodbank stock. Picture: PA

The PCS union has delivered a dossier to the Government on how its members are suffering.

A leading trade union is delivering a dossier to ministers, revealing the “depths of poverty” being suffered by the Government’s own employees.

The Public and Commercial Services union (PCS) said civil servants are now relying on foodbanks for the first time in their lives.

The 156-page dossier is being sent to Work and Pensions Secretary Chloe Smith, along with increased calls for a pay rise to help workers cope with the cost-of-living crisis.

In a letter to the minister, the union said: “Our members have been plunged into ever-increasing depths of poverty.

“They should not have to rely on food banks to feed their children or be forced to make the choice of either working from home because the journey into work is too expensive, or working in the cold under blankets because the cost of heating is too expensive.”

The dossier was compiled after the PCS asked members working for the Department for Work and Pensions what the cost-of-living crisis meant to them.

PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka said: “These testimonies are a damaging indictment of the cruel effects of years of austerity and pay restraint imposed on our members.

“They are heart-breaking stories from government employees who have become the working poor.

“Struggling to pay for petrol, struggling to pay train fares, struggling to buy food, nappies and medication. Worn down by never being able to afford small treats.

“We call on Chloe Smith to study these testimonies carefully and to reopen negotiations on pay.”

The PCS is currently balloting more than 150,000 civil servants working in 214 Government departments for strike action over pay, pensions, jobs and redundancy payments.

Comments from PCS members include:

– I don’t sleep worrying about the cost of energy, food and wanting to live a full life in the years I have left.

– I have to rely on my mother-in-law to plug the gap and buy things the kids need, like shoes.

– To work five days out of seven and not feel able to light my flat or have a hot shower is the unimaginable reality in which I have found myself.

– I’m worried sick about how I’m going to afford heating and food this winter. I live on my own and my wage does not cover all my bills. I already cut down as much as I can. I don’t know what I’m going to do.

– As a family of four, we are unable to afford a social life anymore and are staying home the majority of time.

– I am barely scraping by, usually relying on my parents to help us out.

A DWP spokesman said: “We recognise these are anxious times, which is why we’ve brought forward a huge package of support for families through our Energy Price Guarantee and other measures.

“We are focused on delivering growth and cutting the tax burden to provide quality public services for people who are struggling.

“This year’s pay award was set at the highest level permitted within the Civil Service guidance, recognising the vital importance of public sector workers while providing value for the taxpayer.”

By Press Association

'When winter comes, I don’t know how we'll cope': DWP staff struggle to pay for essentials amid cost-of-living crisis


Civil servants describe being "let down, seriously underpaid and undervalued" as they choose between basics and visit foodbanks



Image: hrp_images now/Flickr/CC BY-SA 2.0

By Tevye Markson
29 Sep 2022
Exclusive

Civil servants at the Department for Work Pensions are having to go without showers, heating, food, and social lives as they cope with soaring inflation, rising energy bills and “paltry” wage increases.

The hardships suffered by officials working in the department amid the cost-of-living crisis are revealed in a 156-page dossier compiled by PCS, which the union will deliver to DWP’s Whitehall headquarters tomorrow afternoon.

The document, seen by CSW, includes testimonies from around 150 PCS members in the department who deliver key public services such as jobs and pensions support and who have received average pay rises of just 2%.

They tell of civil servants cutting down drastically on energy use and commuting costs, sometimes at the expense of their health; having difficulty sleeping; visiting foodbanks; running into overdrafts buying essentials; and turning to parents and payday loans to buy childrens’ clothes and other basics.

The union says the response underlines why it is balloting members nationwide on strike action over pay, pensions, redundancy compensation and jobs.

One work coach quoted in the dossier, a mother-of-three who has worked at DWP for six years, said this is the worst financial situation she has ever been in.

“With the cost-of-living crisis I have had to choose between heating my home for children or buying myself new work clothes. Mine are about four years old and are in bad condition (thank God for hybrid working),” Eve said.
Related


29 Sep
HR
'Scandalous': Union slams DWP over hundreds of redundancy offers
by Tevye Markson

“I had to buy school uniforms on my salary and still had to feed my children. I have a car which I am now contemplating giving up so I can keep my fridge fully stocked but will have to walk to and from my children’s school which is about a 20-minute walk then probably a 40-45-minute walk to work with a mobility disability – it’s not ideal.

“I have thought about foodbanks in the past, but my children are well fed and looked after; my needs come after theirs.”

An earlier survey by PCS found around one in 12 civil servants have visited foodbanks.


Kerry, an administrative officer working on Universal Credit, said she had started visiting foodbanks because after paying her bills and buying some groceries, “I’m left with no money for the rest of the month.”

“I live in overdraft to cover my family’s other needs, which has a knock- on effect. With the price hike in energy I am really scared of using the gas.... I often go without a meal, so my children have food,” she said.

A full-time AO in the department earns between £21,495 and £21,688. For the next grade up, executive officers, pay ranges from £23,700 to £28,117; while at the bottom end of the scale, pay for administrative assistants is set at £21,245. As in other government departments, grades are tied to job roles rather than years served.

Another AO, Jane, said she asked her MP to lower the age she could access her pension “so I can eat and keep warm in winter”.

“I am cutting back everywhere. I eat two meals a day. I have no treats. I have candles on at home, so I don’t switch the lights on. I am desperately doing all I can to survive,” she wrote.

“I am cutting back everywhere. I eat two meals a day. I have no treats. I have candles on at home, so I don’t switch the lights on. I am desperately doing all I can to survive

Tracey, a retirement pensions executive officer, said she is regularly putting food shopping on her credit card, and this year's £30-a-month pay rise has not helped. "I have no idea how I’ll survive Xmas and the winter months. I used to be proud to work for DWP, but I don’t anymore and feel insignificant,” she wrote.

Emma, a work coach, said she may have to turn off her fridge if her energy bills go up further, despite often working overtime.

“To work five days out of seven and not feel able to light my flat or have a hot shower is the unimaginable reality in which I have found myself," she said.

Employees of all ages have spoken out about their struggles.


Esme, a 23-year-old work coach who is pregnant, said: “I honestly don’t know how I am going to survive when my baby is born.

"I undoubtedly will end up in debt. But I have no other choice."

Meanwhile Tracey, a work coach who has been a DWP employee for 40 years, said: “I don’t sleep worrying about the cost of energy, food and wanting to live a full life in the years I have left without this cost-of-living struggle.”

A number of union members who supplied testimonies described having health conditions that make it difficult to cope with the changes they are having to make to cut down on costs.

Mina, a work coach who needs to work from home because she has a suppressed immune system, said she worries about not being able to keep warm after her energy bills have doubled.

“My pay has recently been uplifted to the national living wage and after more than 40 years of service I feel let down, seriously underpaid and undervalued,” she wrote.

Another longtime employee, Zoe – a jobcentre administrative officer also on the minimum wage – said she does not intend to put the heating on despite suffering from a health condition which is exacerbated by the cold. The "sheer worry" of rising food and utility prices is making her feel "very anxious, irritable and stressed, often resulting in sleepless nights", she added.

“My pay has recently been uplifted to the national living wage and after more than 40 years of service I feel let down, seriously underpaid and undervalued"

“I cannot believe that after spending a lifetime working for the department, that I now find myself in this position. It is truly shocking,” she said.

Others spoke of feeling "ashamed" and "anxious" at having to rely on others to help meet their needs – including Paula, a work coach and parent who described having to borrow her bus fare from an elderly neighbour to get to work.

"Life is a chore at the moment, and we take no joy from living and I just worry for the future as when winter comes, I really don’t know how we will cope," she said.

One respondent said they "no longer have any quality of life as we are working to not even be able to afford to pay for food and heating costs, let alone have any social life"; and another said she is lucky if she can afford to eat out with friends once a month and “works to pay bills, nothing more”.

“My attitude now is the heating is going on and they can chase me to the grave for payments of bills," she said.

‘A damning indictment of the cruel effects of austerity’

PCS has written to work and pensions secretary Chloe Smith and DWP permanent secretary Peter Schofield urging them to meet its delegation tomorrow to accept the dossier in person and to reopen negotiations on pay immediately. The union said the department has rejected the invitation.

PCS will ask DWP to study the testimonies closely and agree to reopen pay negotiations.

In an introduction to the document, PCS general secretary Mark Serwotka said the testimonies are a “damning indictment of the cruel effects of years of austerity and pay restraint imposed” on DWP officials.

“As inflation hits a new 40-year high we know many PCS members are struggling on wages that have not kept pace with inflation for decades as prices soar.

“These testimonies are all from DWP staff. They are heartbreaking stories from government employees who have become the working poor. Struggling to pay for petrol, struggling to pay train fares, struggling to buy food, nappies, medication. Worn down by never being able to afford small treats.”

A DWP spokesperson said: “We recognise these are anxious times which is why we’ve brought forward a huge package of support for families through our energy price guarantee and other measures. We are focused on delivering growth and cutting the tax burden to provide quality public services for people who are struggling.

“This year’s pay award was set at the highest level permitted within the civil service guidance, recognising the vital importance of public sector workers while providing value for the taxpayer.”

UK

MPs demand publication of OBR advice to Kwarteng

Think tank dubs chancellor’s rejection of further pre-budget advice “inexplicable”

Photo: amer ghazzal/Alamy Live News


By Jim Dunton
30 Sep 2022
CIVIL SERVICE WORLD

Members of parliament’s influential Treasury Select Committee have called on embattled chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng to publish an Office for Budget Responsibility outlook he was provided ahead of last week’s mini-budget.

Committee chair Mel Stride also said Kwarteng’s decision not to seek a further forecast from the OBR to be published alongside the £45bn package of tax cuts set out on 23 September had fuelled global financial markets’ lack of confidence in the UK government.

“Some have formed the unfortunate impression that the government may be seeking to avoid scrutiny, possibly on account of expecting the OBR forecast to be unsupportive of the achievement of the economic outcomes the government expects from the Growth Plan,” he said.

While the OBR had made preparations to provide forecasts to support the mini-budget, Kwarteng would have had to request the information and he did not.

However the OBR did provide the new chancellor with an initial baseline economic and fiscal forecast when he took office earlier this month, and Stride’s committee is demanding the immediate publication of that document.

In a letter to Kwarteng yesterday, Stride wrote: “As you know this forecast would have informed us as to how the outlook had changed since the last full OBR forecast (23 March) given the deteriorating economic conditions and policy interventions prior to your appointment. Please could you confirm that you will make public that forecast immediately?”

Stride also called on Kwarteng to bring forward his promised medium-term fiscal-policy statement, earmarked for November 23, to a date around the end of October or in very early November.

He said the OBR had confirmed it would be able to produce a full forecast by the end of October and a “meaningful” one beforehand. Stride said bringing forward the policy statement – which will explain how the government intends to make the mini-budget work – would aid market understanding.

“Given the continued uncertainty within markets, there would be a clear advantage to moving the MTFP statement and the release of the OBR forecast to as early a date as possible,” Stride said.

He added that the move would be particularly helpful to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

“The MPC will benefit from clarity around your fiscal plans and access to an independent OBR forecast before their key meeting on 3 November, when they will be taking a critical decision around the level of base rate which will in turn have significant implications for the economy and for millions of people and businesses across the UK,” he said.

There was some good news for Kwarteng today, however.

Revised data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK economy grew by 0.2% between April and June, against earlier figures suggesting it had contracted.

The change indicates that the economy is not in recession, as the Bank of England predicted earlier in the month.

IfG raises alarm over Truss and Kwarteng’s disregard for “usual processes”

The past seven days have been hugely volatile for the UK economy. Sterling exchange rates with the US dollar reach an all-time low and the Bank of England was forced to intervene to halt rapidly declining values of government bonds.

While ministers have been quick to blame the uncertain international context, not least ongoing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Institute for Government deputy chief economist Thomas Pope said Kwarteng and Truss’ disregard for “usual processes” was a significant contributory factor.

He said Kwarteng and Truss had rushed into a fiscal event that did not need to take place for weeks and that the decision to sack Treasury perm sec Sir Tom Scholar in the first hours of the new government was likely linked to his “revealed or anticipated” opposition to their approach.

“This was a radical and extensive package of tax measures delivered less than three weeks into the prime minister’s term,” Pope wrote in an IfG blog.

“This is not enough time for such consequential policies to be stress-tested or for the chancellor to take on the advice of Treasury civil servants, who have a wealth of experience and expertise.

“A budget in late November would have afforded more time to adapt and improve policies while also placing them in the broader fiscal context.”

Pope said Truss and Kwarteng bore particular responsibility for the decision to terminally shut out Scholar’s insight.

“Rather than seek to seek understand the Treasury’s head civil servant’s view on the merits of the plan, or take on his advice for how to manage the policy, ministers’ approach was instead to remove the obstacle and assume that anyone espousing ‘Treasury orthodoxy’ would be of no help in their pursuit of a different economic agenda,” he said.

“By doing this and then moving so quickly, Truss and Kwarteng indicated their intention to sideline and undermine the Treasury and its advice rather than work with it.”

Pope said Kwarteng’s decision to reject the OBR’s offer of an updated economic and fiscal forecast was equally hard to understand.

“Inexplicably, he refused this offer, preferring to announce tax cuts free from the apparent strictures of needing to make the numbers add up,” he said.

Earlier today, Truss and Kwarteng met OBR chair Richard Hughes in an apparent bid to build bridges with the watchdog and reassure markets.
UK AUSTERITY
Government wants to cut ‘very large welfare state’, says Truss cabinet ally

Britons living in ‘fools’ paradise’ with state ‘extremely large’, says levelling up secretary
THE INDEPENDENT
6 hours ago

Liz Truss admits to 'disruption' caused by tax-slashing mini-Budget

Liz Truss’s government is considering ways to shrink the size of the welfare state, a key cabinet ally Simon Clarke has suggested.


The levelling up secretary said ministers were looking at how to make sure “extremely large” state is aligned to a low-tax economy, as economists and unions warn of major austerity cuts ahead.

Mr Clarke said Britons and others in western Europe were living in a “fools’ paradise” in which they enjoy a “very large welfare state” despite sluggish economic productivity.

“I think it is important that we look at a state which is extremely large, and look at how we can make sure that it is in full alignment with a lower tax economy,” the cabinet minister told The Times.


Mr Clarke said: “My big concern in politics is that western Europe is just living in a fool’s paradise whereby we can be ever less productive relative to our peers, and yet still enjoy a very large welfare state and persist in thinking that the two are somehow compatible over the medium to long term. They’re not.”

Signalling spending cuts, he added: “I do think it’s very hard to cut taxes if you don’t have the commensurate profile of spending and the supply side reform … We are privileged to deal with very large budgets. My experience is that there is always something you can do to trim the fat.”

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The government is on course to make public spending cuts of almost £50bn a year after the “unenforced error” of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget, according to the Resolution Foundation think tank.

Welsh secretary Robert Buckland signalled that major public spending cuts were on the way, as the government looks to reassure markets it can balance the books after a week of turmoil.

“We intend to be extremely rigorous when it comes to bearing down on public expenditure,” Mr Buckland told Sky News on Saturday – saying there would be announcements on spending in the weeks ahead.


The cabinet minister said the government wanted to reassure market to “will be seeking to balance the books in a sensible way” by making sure departmental spending is as “efficient and as lean as possible”.

It comes at the end of a chaotic week which saw the pound slump to an all-time low, the Bank of England forced to spend billions on government debt and Labour take an astonishing 33-point lead over the Tories.

Ms Truss has refused to commit to the annual uprating of benefits in line with inflation in April – something Rishi Sunak had promised to do when he was chancellor.

Pressed in her interview with broadcasters late on Friday, the prime minister said only that it was “something the work and pensions secretary [Chloe Smith] is looking at”.

Some Tory MPs have predicted that Ms Truss would struggle to push real-terms cuts to benefits through the Commons.

Robert Largan, Tory MP for High Peak, tweeted: “This is untenable. You cannot freeze benefits and pensions while cutting taxes for millionaires. A debt reduction plan needs to be both economically and politically sustainable to be credible.”


Some uneasy Tory rebels are also keen reverse Ms Truss’s axing of the 45p tax rate. Some backbenchers have to reportedly start talks with Labour about moves to vote it down in the Commons. “It is not all [the] usual suspects,” one figure involved told The Times.

The levelling up secretary also hinted that further radical plans for the economy announced by Mr Kwarteng in late November could include changes to the green belt.

“The fact the green belt is larger today than it was when Margaret Thatcher came to power is an extraordinary state of affairs,” said Mr Clarke.

The minister added: “We need to look at a planning system where we make sensible adjustments which don’t threaten communities and most fundamentally are about going with popular consent, and actually creating incentives that allow local areas to back growth.”

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Lord Turnbull, former permanent secretary at the Treasury, accused the Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng of undermining the Bank of England, the OBR and the Treasury.

“The government’s continuing refusal yesterday to fill the information gap indicates it has still not understood what lies behind the issue,” he wrote in The Times.

 UK

Largest lead we’ve recorded for Labour amidst mini-budget backlash

Polling conducted yesterday (29th September) of 1,329 UK adults found Labour with the largest lead over the Conservatives that Survation has recorded. Our poll found that Labour would win a 49% share of the vote, with Conservatives at 28%.

 

Significantly, voters who backed the Conservatives in the 2019 general election are moving to Labour. 26% of these voters who are not undecided are now saying they would now vote Labour. 

Liz Truss has dropped to a net favourability rating of -32% from -25% within her first month as Prime Minister, reaching levels of unpopularity seen by Boris Johnson at the lowest point of his premiership in July.

 

 

With the cost of the UK’s Sovereign Debt on the rise, causing severe disruption in the mortgage market, we asked people who they trust with the economy, with a choice between Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, and Labour’s shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves. Reeves was the clear winner with 48% of people voicing their trust in her more than Kwarteng, at 23%.

 

 

 

Perhaps surprisingly, even those who currently intend to vote Conservative show some distrust of Kwarteng, with 9% saying they trust Labour’s shadow Chancellor more with the economy, 26% being undecided, and only 65% trusting Kwasi Kwarteng. 

 

When asked whether the mini budget held last week had made the UK’s economy better or worse, 65% of people asked said that they thought the economy was now worse off, versus only 11% who said the financial situation was worse off. 

 

Fallout from the mini-budget has brought the Government’s approval rating to new lows, surpassing low ratings seen over “partygate”:

 

 

 

 

 

With the energy crisis showing few signs of subsiding, Labour’s policy of creating a publicly owned clean energy company proved popular, with 62% of respondents to our poll supporting this.

 

 

 

Get The Data

 

Tables for these questions and more are available here. Online interviews of 1,329 adults in the UK were conducted on 29th September 2022. 

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BPC Statement: All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.