Sunday, October 23, 2022

Australia taking notes on New Zealand wellbeing budgets

Australian banknotes

Could attempts to make New Zealand's national budget more widely focused on wellbeing influence economic policy in Australia? Photo: 123rf

Australia's Budget, to be released on Tuesday will have a "wellbeing" section, modelled on the New Zealand budget concepts.

New Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said his country should start to measure wellbeing in other ways than the usual economic statistics, such as measuring the state of the environment or access to childcare.

He said he'd had extensive talks with New Zealand Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson on how Aotearoa's wellbeing budget worked.

Wide interest in wellbeing components to national budgets

When Grant Robertson meets his counterparts at global events he has regularly been asked about wellbeing.

Not his own wellbeing, but the wellbeing of his entire country.

"I suspect it is in the talking points," he laughed, during an interview with the ABC.

"There is a real interest in it."

Among economists and those who study public policy, he has become known for handing down a "wellbeing" budget in 2019, declaring the success of the economy under his stewardship would be measured by more than just traditional indicators like productivity and growth.

Underpinning the approach was a simple idea - the financial prosperity of a country alone was not an accurate enough measure of the quality of life of its citizens.

"Traditionally, budgets have looked at mainly the financial outcomes of the decisions that governments make - and they're incredibly important," Robertson said. "But that's not the be-all and end-all."

His wellbeing budget was developed with reference to some 60 indicators of living standards, and the government had five "wellbeing objectives".

They included pledges to reduce child poverty, help workers transition to a low-emissions economy, boost the physical and mental health of New Zealanders and improve outcomes for Māori.

Robertson said the goal was to "give a much richer picture about what success actually is" and make a budget more relevant to New Zealanders.

"There's a lot of numbers and charts, definitions and acronyms that go with financial management, and they don't always have huge meaning for people," he said.

"But I think [the wellbeing concept] makes it more real."

"If we don't have a population that's feeling well, healthy and happy, then they're going to be less productive."

How much has New Zealand's approach achieved?

But it was not yet clear how much of a difference the "wellbeing" budget approach had made overall.

Some measures did not appear to have moved much, while others appeared to have worsened, though the Covid-19 pandemic certainly had not helped things.

"I think the way this was rolled out was a bit of a marketing gimmick," said Arthur Grimes, the former chairman of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

"I'm a big fan of wellbeing measurements, but you need explicit targets. We did not do that, so it's not quite clear what has been achieved and what has not been achieved in many areas."

"The wellbeing approach in NZ is just pretty vague. To make it work I think you need better targets."

Robertson said he did not agree with some of the criticism his government had faced and argued progress on difficult goals would simply take a long time to achieve.

"We've lifted about 66,000 kids out of poverty in the past few years, so we can say yes, that measure is something we've succeeded on," Robertson added.

"Equally, the world can intervene, and Covid came along and that's disrupted a lot of what we wanted to do".

Measuring wellbeing is not a new idea

Australia's new treasurer Jim Chalmers (left) takes an oath in front of the Australian Governor General David Hurley and new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (right), in Canberra on 23 May, 2022.

Australia's new treasurer Jim Chalmers (left) takes an oath in front of the Australian Governor General David Hurley and new Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (right), in Canberra, following the country's national election in May. Photo: AFP/ Saeed Khan

The idea of measuring how wellbeing relates to government spending was not new or unique to New Zealand, although the country did capture a lot of headlines with the move in 2019.

The concept has been discussed and tried in various ways, including in places like Scotland and Wales.

The Australian Treasury developed its own wellbeing framework in 2004 - though it was scrapped in 2016 - former UK prime minister David Cameron spoke about the approach when he was in power and so did former French president Nicolas Sarkozy.

"Australia was arguably a world leader in this area," Grimes said.

"Every budget since at least 1900 has had a wellbeing focus. Governments spend a huge amount on things like health, education and welfare. wellbeing is just a synonym for welfare."

Supporters of a specific wellbeing approach to government policy argue it can provide a more targeted way to address long-term problems in a society and ultimately be a good thing for budgets in the long run.

For example, if children are lifted out of poverty and get access to good education, it is presumed they are likely to contribute more to the economy through work, innovation and taxes later in life.

"This approach is an opportunity," said professor of public policy Michael Mintrom from Monash University.

"It treats policies as investments."

"In terms of wellbeing for the nation as a whole, putting an emphasis on early intervention is absolutely critical."

However, opponents argue economic indicators, particularly inflation, growth and unemployment, are going to remain the biggest determiners of societal wellbeing, particularly given the global economy faces choppy waters and the cost of living had soared.

Australia's budget on Tuesday will have a wellbeing chapter

New Australian treasurer Jim Chalmers had been interested in wellbeing budgeting for some time.

He described Robertson - a fellow Labour (Labor in Australia) politician - as a "great bloke" and had repeatedly spoken with him about how a similar concept could be implemented in Australia.

The Albanese government's first economic blueprint on Tuesday will not feature any explicit wellbeing goals, though they look likely to be introduced next May.

But the budget books would contain a dedicated section to discuss what sort of measurements might work in Australia. For example, the state of the environment or access to childcare.

"The October budget is the start of this important discussion - it explores international best practice and how we can best apply it here at home," Chalmers said.

"It's critical that we measure what matters as a country, to help us track and make progress when it comes to our national priorities."

"The wellbeing budget is about how we can add to our traditional economic indicators, not replace them."

Former treasurer mocked wellbeing concept

Chalmers was well aware his opponents could try to portray the focus on wellbeing as out-of-touch nonsense at a time when more families were struggling with the rising cost of food, fuel, healthcare and housing.

His predecessor Josh Frydenberg, who lost his seat in May, notably mocked the concept of a wellbeing budget in 2020.

Speaking in parliament, Frydenberg claimed it could involve meditation mats, incense, beads and Chalmers walking barefoot into the chamber.

"Hugs for all," Frydenberg joked.

The Morrison government left office with an enormous amount of projected debt and the budget in structural deficit, in part due to massive spending programs aimed at getting Australia through the pandemic.

New Coalition's Treasury spokesperson Angus Taylor did not mock the idea of a wellbeing budget when asked about the proposal by the ABC.

However, he argued that, given the darkening economic clouds around the globe, traditional indicators needed to be the government's main focus right now.

"I think having good outcomes in health and education and mental health is enormously important, but what's important for the treasurer and the budget is to focus on Australia's economic position," he said.

"It's going to be a tough Christmas for many Australians as they see interest rates going up, they see the cost of living going up."

Wellbeing can work during a crisis: NZ deputy PM

On Australia's budget night, the wellbeing concept was likely to be overshadowed by other news, the ABC said.

The treasurer seemed to speak about it less in recent weeks, and preferred instead to focus on inflation or talk about the "tough decisions" he needed to make to curb spending and budget waste.

But New Zealand's deputy prime minister argued wellbeing budgets could work at any time.

"Even in a time of crisis, like we've got with high inflation, the wellbeing approach helps because it helps understand which groups in the community need to be supported," Robertson said.

"Inequality as an issue is now - I think - regarded by most people as an economic issue as much as a social issue."

He said he did not expect Australia to end up adopting the same wellbeing measurements as New Zealand, though he was pleased Chalmers was looking at following in his nation's footsteps.

"Jim will make this his own, I'm absolutely sure of that," Robertson said.

"But I think the underlying kind of philosophy is actually a really important one for the progress of our countries."

-ABC

REALITY TV PURGE
Xi Jinping's iron grip over China and his party has grown over the past decade changing the face of the country forever

By East Asia correspondent Bill Birtles
ABC.NET.AU
Former Chinese president Hu Jintao (centre) was escorted out of congress on Saturday, just one move which shows the power behind Chinese President Xi Jinping (right)
(Reuters: Tingshu Wang)

Xi Jinping's extraordinary accumulation of personal power at the 20th Communist Party Congress over the weekend has gone beyond most observers expectations, with some suggesting his control is now greater than in Chairman Mao Zedong's day.

And his warning of dark times to come and obsession with security is foreshadowing a difficult period ahead.

It wasn't his precedent-busting third five-year term at the helm of the world's most powerful political party that shocked analysts, as that was on the cards for the past four years, ever since he scrapped State Presidential term limits.


Rather two moments over two days helped crystallise just how much of an iron grip he's managed to secure over both the Party and China as a whole.

The first was a moment on Saturday that, even with the most sympathetic explanation, still involved the incredibly undignified act of a former Chinese leader being manhandled off stage.

Just moments after journalists were allowed to enter the Great Hall of the People, Hu Jintao, Xi's predecessor, was filmed in some sort of dispute or distress involving the documents in front of him.

Sitting between Mr Xi and Xi loyalist Li Zhanshu, both who spoke to him, Mr Hu looked confused and upset, and then was forced to his feet by an aide of Mr Xi who led him off stage.

Most of the other top leaders sat stone-faced and largely ignored this luminary of Chinese politics as he was led away.

Chinese state media has censored discussion of the incident but has allowed the video, filmed by foreign media, to continue to circulate on the main messaging app, WeChat.

Only in English on a platform blocked in China, Twitter, has the state newsagency said the 79-year old ex-leader was feeing unwell.

It's an explanation many analysts believe is credible.

Mr Hu's image and attendance wasn't scrubbed from state TV reports of the Congress closing ceremony, so the likelihood he was purged is very low.

The moment former Chinese president Hu Jintao is escorted out of party congress

But his forced, unhappy exit stage right, with a pat on the shoulder to protege Li Keqiang on the way out was, at the very least, extraordinary timing.

Because it came just after the Party delegates all voted to approve a new group of leaders that cut Mr Li and all other factional associates of Hu Jintao from top positions.

"It's clear that he either had some sort of medical issue or this was a deliberate attempt to humiliate him, as his allies inside the Chinese Communist Party were being removed from all positions of power," said Alex Joske, a senior China analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and the author of a new book on China's covert operations named Spies and Lies.

"It's a reflection of the sort of opaque medieval workings of the Chinese Communist Party that something as simple as a man being led off stage can spark so much speculation," he said.

The second moment putting Xi's power play into clearer view came on Sunday, when he led six men out on to a stage as his new Cabinet.

Expectations were high that Mr Xi would try to fill the positions with loyalists, but few predicated a straight flush.

All six of the men are regarded as Xi associates, especially his new Number 2 Li Qiang, a politician without national-level experience, best known for overseeing a draconian COVID lockdown in Shanghai this year that led to food shortages and tanked the economy.

It won Xi Jinping's approval though because it eradicated the virus from the city as new cases dropped to zero.

Temporarily.

Now parts of Shanghai are back in lockdown as COVID-19 cases have returned.
Politburo tightening Xi's grip

The Shanghai shutdown contributed to a yearly quarter of almost stagnant national economic growth.

But despite that, Mr Li will likely takeover management of the world's second largest economy as the new Chinese Premier next year.

If there are any doubts about his credentials, there are none about his loyalty to the one man who counts.

"The way I read it, Xi Jinping for the past decade has been trying to transfer the [Politburo Standing Committee] from a board of directors, where there is some institutional means of power sharing, into a team of division managers," said Dr Fengming Lu, a lecturer on Chinese politics at the Australian National University.

While the tea leaf reading of elite Chinese politics is fascinating to some, a more general steer on where Xi's China is going next is more relevant to most.

And optimism is in short supply.

Xi Jinping, who first took power in 2012, will serve a third five-year term as General Secretary of the CCP.(Reuters: Thomas Peter)

Xi's defence of his COVID-zero policy and his promotion of Li Qiang leaves little room to imagine China opening its borders anytime soon.

His defence of the country's economic fundamentals and repeat of an oft-used line about China "opening the door wider" clashes with the reality of the last few years.

His increasing talk of "security", spanning everything from political security to economic security, shows rising paranoia both from forces at home and abroad.

His promotion of the head of China's Ministry of State Security to the Politburo for the first time signals tightening control.


His decision not to include a woman among the 24-member Politburo, returning it to an all-male leadership group for the first time in a quarter of a century, shows a widening gulf compared to expectations for more equality in countries abroad.

Increasing zero-sum competition with the US, which the Biden administration is now reciprocating, will be the theme of foreign relations.

"Xi Jinping's main priority is still to deal with the US, and in this process he's trying to make more friends than enemies in the Western camp," Dr Lu said.

"There is still some leeway for the Australian/China relationship in the next few years", he said, pointing to recent overtures by the Chinese embassy in Australia.

But others are less optimistic about the broader trends, believing the nineties and early noughties heyday of China opening up to the world is now firmly in the rear-view mirror.

"We're not going to be walking into a future where we can return to more friendly relations," Mr Joske said.


"The Chinese Communist Party is really showing that it's locked into long-term competition with Western countries, so we're in for a really bumpy ride."
Nuclear chief: Iran leading producer of radiopharmaceuticals in world

By IFP Editorial Staff
September 30, 2022



The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) says the Islamic Republic has become one of the major producers of radiopharmaceuticals in the world despite relentless sanctions.

In a tour of eastern Iranian province of Kerman on Thursday, Mohammad Eslami said Iran managed to beat the challenges and facilitate 205 medical centers across the country with pharmaceutical medicines.

He explained that the technology is mainly used for treatment of cancer as it can target cancer cells with high accuracy and save patients from the side effects and various complications of chemical drugs.

Eslami pointed out that, unlike the wrong perception in the world, nuclear technology is not only used for uranium enrichment, clarifying its power can be used to generate electricity and its radiation is used for various purposes, including in medicine for diagnosis, treatment, equipment, and producing radiopharmaceuticals.

The AEOI head also stated that Iran is planning on increasing the capacity to produce radiopharmaceuticals, stipulated in the country’s strategic document and the 20-Year Vision.

The number of homegrown radiopharmaceuticals is increasing every year and Iran has been exporting its radiopharmaceuticals to many countries, including India, Lebanon, Iraq, and some European countries, he added.
UK
Why Did it All go Wrong (so Quickly) for Liz Truss?



22 OCTOBER, 2022
PQ

In September 2022, Prime Minister Liz Truss became the UK’s latest ‘takeover’ leader, securing the post via the second route rather than the first. Remarkably, she is the fifteenth takeover since 1916 and the second woman appointed mid-term since 2016. Takeovers often get little time in power, with an average of just 3.6 years compared with an average of 6.6 years for those who came to office following a general election.

However, Truss’ premiership lasted just forty-five days, far behind her closest modern comparators with 211 days (Andrew Bonar Law) and Alex Douglas Home (363 days).

As I found in my 2016 review of a century of such leaders, while replacing prime ministers who step down represents the most common way into power, takeover premierships are often difficult. The most recent takeovers are bywords for failed premierships, especially the successive takeovers of Theresa May (2016–2019) and Boris Johnson (2019–2022). Further back, Anthony Eden and Neville Chamberlain are stark warnings of quite how badly takeovers can fare. Yet, Liz Truss’s premiership was far shorter and more tumultuous even than those. What happened?

A SELF-INFLICTED CRISIS

Takeovers inherit the problems and crises. These can be economic, as happened with Major and Brown, or political, as when David Cameron gifted Theresa May the problem of Brexit. What makes Liz Truss different was that her crisis, unlike her recent predecessors, was self-inflicted. During the leadership hustings, Truss had repeatedly promised tax cuts and a radical break with ‘treasury orthodoxy’. It was these policies, created with ideological ally, Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, that immediately plunged her new government into deep crisis and controversy, from which it never recovered.

Truss’s initial action was to institute an energy price cap, which was broadly well received. However, a ‘financial event’ or ‘mini-budget’ followed, made up of an un-costed combination of tax cuts and a stamp duty cut, rush-released with little scrutiny and no analysis from the Office for Budget Responsibility, and leading to a series of financial shocks.

Truss’s fiscal event had two immediate effects, one economic and one political. First, mortgages became more expensive, as pension teetered on the brink of collapse and the pound fell in value. The IMF urged the UK to rethink ‘large and untargeted fiscal packages’, while the Bank of England was forced to step in. Second, in an echo of the poll tax, this hit exactly the homeowner voters Conservatives had cultivated. Truss’s own polling fell lower than Johnson’s when he was forced to office, while pollsters recorded record levels of support for Labour.

Truss initially rejected any change of course, calling critics ‘declinists’, before U-turning on the controversial 45 pence top-rate tax cut on the eve of her first speech to conference. After just thirty-eight days, Truss sacked her Chancellor and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt, who then reversed the entire raft of policies. By day forty-two of her premiership, the entirety of her ‘radical’ policy platform had effectively been reversed, including the energy price plan.

RADICAL ACTION WITH BRITTLE SUPPORT

As well as crises, takeovers often inherit unhappy parties. Truss came to office aware that of the four most recent takeover leaders prior to herself, three had to face a formal leadership challenge.

Few prime ministers, and no takeovers, have dared do anything so radical with so little party support. Truss was the favourite of grassroots members, but gained the support of just 32 per cent of her MPs, less than any candidate since 1998. The party she inherited had been deeply divided by Brexit and had developed an increasing ‘taste for rebellion’ ever since. After Truss installed a Cabinet of loyalists, her already uneasy backbenches were filled with a new group of ‘the rejected, the ejected and the dejected’. This included Rishi Sunak, a possible leadership rival, as well as influential and experienced former ministers such as Michael Gove and Priti Patel. Remarkably, over her shoulder sat two former Prime Ministers.

Her mini-budget had immediate consequences for her already brittle party relationship, with MPs publicly criticising her stance and speculating about her removal. More dangerously, Conservative MPs were reportedly putting in letters of no confidence (despite the Prime Minister being safe for a year) and rumours swirled of plots to replace her with a unity candidate. On 19 October, relations finally fell apart in a bungled confidence vote triggered by Labour’s fracking ban motion, with scenes of bullying and manhandling of Tory MPs in the voting lobby.

So what went wrong? In carrying out her promises, Prime Minister Truss created a deep crisis, which fractured an already divided and unhappy party and created a policy disaster reminiscent of the poll tax or Black Wednesday. Her radical policies were done with little party support, and so both policies and party came rapidly apart. Truss entered office knowing that, of her past four Conservative predecessors in Downing Street, three faced formal removal attempts and only one, long ago in 1997, was removed by a general election. Anthony King wrote back in 1992 that Britain now had ‘over the shoulder politics’, shaped by the relationship between governments and their own backbenchers. Brexit has now accelerated and toxified this politics and Truss is the third takeover in a row to be destroyed by it.



Ben Worthy is Lecturer in Politics at Birkbeck, University of London.




UK PM polls: What led to  Rishi Sunak's defeat against Liz Truss 6 weeks ago?

Britain's former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Conservative MP, Rishi Sunak leaves his home in London on October 22, 2022. - Former prime minister Boris Johnson on Saturday returned to Britain from a holiday to launch an audacious political comeback, as Conservative leadership rival Rishi Sunak reached the minimum threshold to contest the UK's top job. (Photo by Daniel LEAL / AFP) 
  • Former UK finance minister Rishi Sunak announced on Sunday announced that he is running to replace outgoing PM Liz Truss

Rishi Sunak, the former Chancellor of the Exchequer of British government, an Indian origin British politician on Sunday, 23 October declared that he is going to run for Prime Minister of United Kingdom, again. Sunak lost the race to Tory leadership to Liz Truss, six weeks ago after former Prime Minister Boris Johnson declared that he was quitting the position following a series of scandals.

Liz Truss became the shortest serving Prime Minister of Britain after she announced her resignation only 44 days after being elected. Truss was forced to resign following a series of faulty economic and financial decision.

Sunak in the last race had remained a strong contender, enjoying more popularity than his rival Liz Truss, however, even if he was touted as the favourite initially for the race to Downing Street, Rishi Sunak started losing his spark midway.

Here's taking a look at why Sunak lost out 6 week ago

Surging unpopularity:

Rishi Sunak's image was permanently tainted when a video of his came into foray where he accepted that he took money from deprived urban areas. His comments, boasting of shifting money from “deprived urban areas" to fund projects in the Kent commuter belt sparked outrage, considering it cut across the UK government’s rhetoric about ‘levelling up’ Britain and spreading wealth beyond the south-east.

Data have shown that even when Sunak was the chancellor in the British cabinet, his approval rating among the public was declining. As of 8 August, 2022, only 22% of the people thought that Rishi Sunak was doing a good job, as against his rating two years ago, 48%, according to a YouGov survey.

Image of backstabber:

Hours after Boris Johnson announced his resignation, Sunak threw his hat into the ring with a campaign video titled ‘Ready for Rishi’. This gave him the image of a backstabber, as he was also the first among cabinet ministers to resign from the Boris Johnson led government.

Sunak's wealth and other controversies:

Rishi Sunak's wealthy status brought him under the least favoured quota in the Tory race last time. Sunak is married to Akshata Murthy, the daughter of Infosys founder Narayana Murthy. Notably Akshata Murthy owns 0.93% stake worth 690 million in the tech company. 

In May 2022, Rishi Sunak and his wife featured in The Sunday Times UK Rich List of the top 250 wealthiest people in the UK.

Rishi Sunak aim to bag the PM position in Britain took a dive in April after reports revealed that his wife holds a non-domiciled status in the UK, and hence does not pay British taxes on her foreign earnings.

A protestor against Rishi Sunak becoming prime minister holds a placard outside Houses of Parliament in London, Britain October 21, 2022. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls
View Full Image
A protestor against Rishi Sunak becoming prime minister holds a placard outside Houses of Parliament in London, Britain October 21, 2022. 
REUTERS/Henry Nicholls

Sunak also criticised the handling of Covid-19 pandemic by the Boris Johnson government, saying it had been a mistake to "empower" scientists and that the downsides of lockdowns were suppressed.

Losing support of conservatives:

Declaring that he is ready to run for Prime Minister only hours after his boss and mentor Boris Johnson had resigned on 8 July, costed Sunak the support of the conservative party members.

Top conservative leaders like Sajid Javid, who was also once a close ally of Sunak, took the public platform to endorse Truss's candidature. Javid even went ahead to warn that Sunak's economic prescription would mean sleepwalking into a high-tax, low-growth economy.

Another top Tory leader Nadhim Zahawi backed Liz Truss, saying that the UK needs a 'booster' attitude to the economy, not a 'doomster' one.

UK PM polls post Truss's resignation

Even though the former finance minister was not the supported candidate last time, following Truss's resignation SUnak seems to be a clear favourite. However, one cannot rule out the presence of his rival Boris Johnson who has decided to run the race again. As per polls, Sunak has 55% chance of winning the next PM race, far ahead of second favourite, Penny Mordaunt, who has only a 16% chance.

UK
CALL A GENERAL ELECTION!

Rishi Sunak Formally Announces 
Leadership Bid 
As Senior Tory Says Johnson Would Be A
"Guaranteed Disaster"



Rishi Sunak has formally announced his leadership bid (Alamy)

John Johnston
23 October,2022

The former chancellor has confirmed he will stand in next week's leadership election as he builds significant support among Tory MPs.

Rishi Sunak has formally declared his intention to stand following reports he held talks with Boris Johnson on Saturday evening to discuss a potential joint ticket.

Announcing his leadership bid on Sunday morning, Sunak said: "The United Kingdom is a great country but we face a profound economic crisis.

"The choice our Party makes now will decide whether the next generation of British people will have more opportunities than the last."

Highlighting his work as chancellor during the Covid pandemic, Sunak said he had helped "steer our economy through the toughest of times".

"The challenges we face now are even greater. But the opportunities - if we make the right choice - are phenomenal."

He added: "There will be integrity, professionalism and accountability at every level of the government I lead and I will work day in and day out to get the job done."

Speculation that a deal could be struck comes as Boris Johnson's camp claim the former PM has broken through the threshold of 100 MPs needed to secure a place on the ballot, despite public declarations from MPs sitting at around 60.

Speaking to the BBC on Sunday, Business Secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg, who is backing Johnson said: "Clearly he is going to stand, there is a great deal of support for him as you have seen."

He added: "The people doing the numbers for Boris's campaign tell me they have got the numbers, so the 100 that is necessary for MPs is there."

In a boost to Johnson's campaign, he picked up the support of former chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, who credited him with "getting the big calls right" on Covid and Ukraine, and praised his decision to resign "for the sake of unity" in the party.



Johnson has reportedly been contacting wavering MPs to assure them that a second stint in Downing Street would not be marred with the same scandals which brought him down earlier this year, with Zahawi saying he had been "contrite and honest" about his mistakes in the final weeks of his premiership.

He added: "When I was Chancellor, I saw a preview of what Boris 2.0 would look like. He was contrite & honest about his mistakes. He’d learned from those mistakes how he could run No10 & the country better.

"With a unified team behind him, he is the one to lead us to victory & prosperity."

But Johnson's campaign have struggled to allay fears that an upcoming probe by the Commons Privileges Committee into his conduct during the partygate scandal could destroy his political career.

Speaking to Sky News on Sunday, senior Brexiteer Steve Baker, who was a vocal backer of Boris Johnson during his leadership, said he was now backing Sunak because selecting Johnson would be a "guaranteed nailed-on disaster" for the party.

"He's bound to implode, taking the whole government down. Boris Johnson would be a guaranteed disaster. I'm not willing to lay down my integrity for Boris Johnson," Baker said.

"I think it would be for the best if Boris did something big and statesmanlike."

He added: "What we can't do is have him as prime minister in circumstances where he's bound to implode, taking down the whole government with him.

"I'm afraid the trouble is because of the (Commons Privileges Committee) vote, Boris would be a guaranteed disaster."

The comments add further weight to Sunak's campaign as he continues to win the backing of significant figures from across the party spectrum, including from International Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch, who proved popular with MPs on the right of the party in the summer leadership contest.

Sunak has already broken through the threshold required to get onto the ballot on Monday, with over 130 MPs already publicly announcing their support for him.

The battle between the two Tory heavyweights comes as the party struggles to unify after Truss's disastrous stint in Downing Street shattered public trust in their ability to manage the economy, and pushed Labour to historic poll leads.


Meanwhile, Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, who announced her bid on Friday, continues to struggle to build support with only 24 MPs currently publicly backing her.

Despite stuttering support, Mordaunt told the BBC she was "very confident" about her chances of winning the contest, saying she was "best placed to unite our party".

"I was a halfway house between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak and I deeply regret that the debate now is about 'are you for stability or low taxes'," she said.

"That's not the right construct. There are two sides of the same coin. You have to have stability in order to deliver low tax and you have to have low taxes in order to grow the economy and create that stability."

But Mordaunt, who has already committed to keeping Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor if she wins, struggled to set out a coherent policy plan as she refused to be drawn on health and defence spending commitments. And she also refused to say whether she would raise benefits in line with inflation, despite committing to the move at the Conservative Party conference three weeks ago.

Whoever wins next week's contest is likely to face significant public and political pressure to commit to an early general election following months of chaos at the top of the Conservative Party.

But speaking on Sunday, Labour leader Keir Starmer admitted his party were not able to force the government to call an early general election, saying instead that Tory MPs should "put their country first" by backing calls for an early poll.

"They've got a choice to make. They can either put their party first, or their country first," he told the BBC.

"The country needs change, the country needs stability, the country needs to get rid of this chaos. It has been going on for the best part of 12 years. We don't need another change at the top of Tory party, we need a change of government."

Taking aim at the "ridiculous, chaotic circus" at the top of the Tory Party, Starmer insisted his party were prepared they could repair the "real mess" in the economy.

"My focus is on the millions of people who are struggling to pay their bills, have now got additional anxieties about their mortgage - I know what it feels like not to be able to pay your bills, that happened to me and my family when I was growing up," he said.

"They are fed up to the back teeth with this."

For The Next Tory Leader, Uniting The Party Might Be Impossible

Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak (Alamy)



As the Conservative party prepares to elect its third leader and Prime Minister of 2022, senior Tory figures are asking whether their party is now broken beyond repair.

In a surreal scene on Thursday, Liz Truss announced that she would resign as Prime Minister after days in No 10, having taken over from Boris Johnson in early September.

Her exit from Downing Street was seen as inevitable after a truly calamitous few weeks in charge, with her succumbing to pressure from furious Conservative MPs. She delivered her farewell statement after just 44 days, beginning with self-inflicted economic turmoil and culminating in farcical scenes during a House of Commons fracking vote on Wednesday night, which left Westminster astonished.

Charles Walker, the long-serving Tory MP for Broxbourne, went viral that evening after telling the BBC that the affair had been a "pitiful reflection on the Conservative Parliamentary party at every level", "utterly appalling", and "a shambles and a disgrace".

Some dismissed Walker's comments as those of a demob-happy MP (he is standing down at the next election) – but the reality is that there is widespread belief in Westminster that the Conservative party as it stands may now be ungovernable, and can only be retrieved after a time out of power, during which it can locate a common purpose.

Speaking to PoliticsHome on this week's episode of The Rundown, just a couple of hours before Truss announced her resignation, former government adviser Jack Sellers said the state of the Conservative party was "completely embarrassing".

Sellers, who worked in 10 Downing Street and as special adviser to ex-Welsh Secretary Simon Hart, contrasted the party of "Disraeli, Churchill and Thatcher" to the state it had got itself into, as opinion polls suggest that it risks being wiped out at the next general election.

"When I worked in No 10, I was working on the Union — which is in the title of the party: the Conservative and Unionist Party," he told the podcast on Thursday.

"At the moment, the reality that a lot of my colleagues have got to wake up to is that are we really going to be a Unionist party if we've only got MPs in England? That's what the polling is showing at the moment. In Wales and Scotland, we would get completely obliterated."

Another former senior Tory aide told PoliticsHome that winning the next general election was "almost impossible" for the party and that this latest leadership contest – the second in the space of a few months – was more about damage limitation.

“The Conservative Party is at a critical stage of make or break, damaged by poor leadership decisions, turbulence and political infighting," they said.

"The next leader must be committed to repairing that damage, unifying the party and crucially, restoring trust and credibility among the electorate. Securing a fifth term is almost impossible, so MPs and members must think carefully about who will give the party its best fighting chance.”

The state of the party at national level is being felt at local level, with one Conservative Association chair telling PoliticsHome that the turmoil was deterring candidates coming forward for selection, with "very poor" quality candidates making the final cut.

"Our top two going forward this year would have not made the top 10 in previous years," they said.

One party activist and former councillor said they were "completely miserable" and warned the party faced a "massacre" in May's local elections.

"You can feel the mood when we are out speaking to our own voters.

"People are mostly polite but it's obvious they have no faith in us because of what is happening in London. We have a really good team locally who have a fantastic record of delivering for our residents but the entire party is contaminated by this sense of complete incompetence."

Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson look like the frontrunners to replace Truss at the time of writing, with the latter hoping to stage a dramatic comeback after being ousted over scandal earlier this year. 

Penny Mordaunt, who finished third behind Truss and Sunak in this summer's Conservative party leadership contest, appears to be the only other realistic candidate to take over after Defence Secretary Ben Wallace announced on Friday that he would not be putting his name forward.

It is indicative of another area of concern among senior Tories – a lack of credible senior figures who have experience of the Great Offices of State. One senior source said there was a genuine sense of panic after Kwasi Kwarteng was forced to quit, as it was unclear who could step in to the role of Chancellor and offer the required experience and knowhow to calm the situation and extricate the government from the economic bind it had created for itself.

"We were very lucky to have [Jeremy] Hunt," they said. Another senior Tory said the impact of Boris Johnson's "Brexit purge" was catching up with the party, citing the loss of David Gauke and Amber Rudd among others.

The winner, who will be chosen some time next week, will have a long list of huge challenges when they assume power – not least unifiying a bitterly divided Tory party after a rancorous period.

Much of the discussion in the corridors of Westminster has focused on the Tories finding a "unity candidate" who can bring the competing wings of the Conservative party together. 

Speaking to PoliticsHome on this week's The Rundown, however, Dr Catherine Haddon from the Institute for Government think tank said she was "not convinced" that a unity candidate exists in the context of this bitterly divided parliamentary Conservative party.

"The issue is the party remains the same," she said.

"Too many people have got beef with somebody else and have red lines on various policy issues that makes it hard to see them rally behind someone."

On Sunak, who won the most votes from Conservative MPs at the last leadership contest, she said: "There are people within the party who are vehemently opposed to him. Even if he is a vote winner with the public and polls well, you still have that problem of ending up in the same situation as now where you have large parts of the party battling you."

There are warnings that Johnson's return would prompt some of his biggest critics on the back benches to give up the Conservative whip, putting the party in an even more chaotic position. Roger Gale, the Tory MP for North Thanet, has already issued that threat.

Mass ministerial resignations forced Jonhnson to resign in disgrace earlier this year after months of scandal, and swathes of Conservatives MPs are horrified by the prospect of a comeback. 

One Conservative MP this week told PoliticsHome that they also would consider quitting the party if Johnson followed in the footsteps of his hero Churchill and came back for a second stint in Downing Street. 
 

Another Tory predicted that around a dozen backbenchers would quit the party in the event of a Johnson return, but said the number who break away "could easily grow".

Sellers, who worked on the Sunak leadership campaign, said Johnson's supporters were showing no signs of "contrition" or honest "conversations" about why he had to srep down this summer.

"Nadine Dorries is saying 'you ousted the most popular Prime Minister we've ever had'," he said.

"Because of the chaos since Boris Johnson resigned, nobody is really looking at the historical factor that we had an 80-seat majority that because of basic and repeated mistakes and complacency, the government fell apart," he said.

"An 80-seat majority in two-and-a-half years fell apart — that is scandalous."

With additional reporting from John Johnston and Eleanor Langford.

PoliticsHome provides the most comprehensive coverage of UK politics anywhere on the web, offering high quality original reporting and analysis: Subscribe


Rival rallies march through Seoul after arrest of aide to DP chief


Members of conservative civic groups protest against the Democratic Party and former Moon Jae-in government on Saturday in Jung District, central Seoul. [NEWS1]Tens of thousands of protesters from both sides of the political aisle marched through central Seoul on Saturday, venting their frustrations over a range of issues involving the former and current administrations.

Liberal protesters mostly called for conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol to step down and cease his “political revenge” against the Democratic Party (DP) and former left-leaning Moon Jae-in government.

They also demanded a special probe on first lady Kim Keon-hee for allegedly forging her credentials to land teaching jobs at universities.

Conservative protesters, on the other hand, called on prosecutors to detain DP Chairman Lee Jae-myung for allegedly taking bribes to fund his failed 2022 presidential campaign and insisted that Moon should take responsibility for North Korea’s killing of a South Korean fisheries official in 2020.

No direct clashes between protesters were reported.



Members of liberal civic groups protest against the Yoon Suk-yeol administration in Jung District on Saturday. [NEWS1]The rallies came as Korea counted 26,256 new Covid-19 patients that day, which was 4,800 more than a week before. Daily cases over the past several days have all risen compared to the previous week, a grim reminder that the Covid pandemic is not over.

Over the past week, an average of 25,291 people have tested positive for coronavirus every day.

Health experts warn that Korea might enter its next Covid wave from November through the end of the year.

The first major rally was held near the Dongwha Duty Free Shop building in Gwanghwamun, central Seoul, organized by far-right civic groups including the Liberty Unification Party. The group is led by Rev. Jun Kwang-hoon, known for holding antigovernment rallies in mid-2020 against then-President Moon in defiance of government social distancing restrictions.

The rallies were blamed for driving up coronavirus cases at the time.

At 4 p.m. the same day, two separate rallies commenced, one siding with the DP and the other siding with the Yoon government.

Some 2,500 members of conservative civic groups gathered near Samgakji Station in Yongsan District, central Seoul, close to Yoon’s presidential office, urging prosecutors to probe all irregularities in the former Moon administration.

Around the same time, thousands of others affiliated with liberal civic groups gathered near Namdaemun Gate in Jung District, central Seoul, and started marching toward Yoon’s office at 6:50 p.m. The protesters dispersed about an hour later in Namyeong-dong, Yongsan, so as not to clash with the conservative civic group members protesting nearby.

Among the liberal protesters were DP lawmakers Kim Yong-min and Hwang Un-ha.

Police installed fences around the downtown area on Saturday to prevent possible clashes.

Neither Yoon nor his office made any public remarks about the rallies.

Political tension flared up last week after prosecutors arrested a close aide to DP Chairman Lee, who lost to Yoon in the March presidential election by the smallest margin in Korean history, and accused Lee of receiving kickbacks to fund his presidential campaign.

Both Lee and his aide denied taking any bribes and slammed the Yoon government for trying to get back at the liberals to divert public attention from its own problems and sinking approval ratings.

BY LEE SUNG-EUN [lee.sungeun@joongang.co.kr]