NATURAL CAPITALI$M

Researchers propose a scheme that treats carbon emissions like financial debt

Paying off our carbon debt

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SANTA BARBARA

Research News

The recent extreme heat in the Western United States and Canada may seem remarkable now, but events like these are made more likely, and more severe, under climate change. The consequences are likely to be far-reaching, with overwhelmingly negative impacts on land and ocean ecosystems, biodiversity, food production and the built environment.

"The main lever we have to slow global warming is the rate at which CO2 is added to the atmosphere," said Marcus Thomson, a postdoctoral scholar at the National Center for Ecological Analysis & Synthesis at UC Santa Barbara. Thomson is a co-author of a research article just published in Nature that presents a scheme to slow global warming by tying CO2 emissions to carbon removal obligations.

In spite of several high-profile attempts to limit emissions caused by human activities over the past several decades, atmospheric carbon dioxide has continued to rise steadily. If this trend continues, sufficient CO2 will be added to the atmosphere -- the "remaining carbon budget" will be depleted -- in about a decade to raise the long-term average global temperature by 1.5°C. That in turn raises the likelihood of dangerous and irreversible socioeconomic and ecological damage.

The most recent attempt to cooperatively limit global greenhouse gas emissions was COP21 in 2015, which resulted in the "Paris Agreement", an international treaty that has been in force since. Under the Paris Agreement, individual countries pledge to reduce their emissions in order to keep global warming to no more than +1.5°C and "well below" 2°C. For the Paris Agreement to have any hope of succeeding, and for dangerous global warming to be avoided, it will be necessary to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere, in addition to limiting emissions. Technically, once the remaining carbon budget is depleted, for every ton of CO2 added to the atmosphere, it will be necessary to remove a ton of CO2 later this century.

In other words, the researchers assert, should emissions continue after the carbon budget is depleted -- which seems likely -- the budget will go negative, and we will begin accruing a carbon debt. The greater this carbon debt grows, the faster and more dramatically the climate will change -- it will become a more difficult problem to fix. This assumption is already baked into the net-zero pledges that countries have made. However, these pledges are still insufficient. There remains no uniform global strategy for national and sub-national governments, public organizations and private companies to get behind to pay down this carbon debt. This raises the risk that future generations will be unfairly burdened with massive debt, and challenges any long-term strategy to limit warming to +1.5°C. In short, in spite of near universal agreement on the need to achieve net-zero emissions, there remains a significant challenge to operationalize concerted action.

Before It's Too Late

In their article, the researchers argue that to assure the viability of a future net-negative carbon economy, funds for future carbon debt repayment ought to be collected through a carbon pricing scheme before and while carbon debt is accrued. As lead author Johannes Bednar, a research scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria and a Ph.D. student at Oxford University explained, "Economic logic dictates that the latest possible time to start doing that is [the moment] when the carbon budget becomes depleted."

In the case of an idealized global emissions trading scheme, emission caps become more stringent as the carbon budget is depleted. For existing schemes, like that used by the European Union, this would mean reducing the quantity of currently scheduled emissions allowances. This risks making the whole scheme economically and politically untenable. The reduced number of allowances would, however, be compensated by Carbon Removal Obligations (CROs), obligating emitters to remove an equivalent quantity of CO2 in the future instead of paying a carbon price now, which may be insufficient to compensate for the eventual cost of warming. In the plan, carbon debt would be managed through CROs which establish legal responsibility for carbon debt repayment.

"We needed a scheme that would be resilient to future interference in its primary goal, which is to decarbonize the environment, yet still be as simple as possible," Thomson said. "CROs work within the existing and foreseeable regulatory environment, and should also be appealing for capital markets. We started with the germ of an idea and worked it through collaboratively. Johannes developed a rigorous proof of concept model, and then pulled everything together beautifully."

Emission trading schemes backed by CROs carry the risk of default by debtors. The authors propose that the latter be addressed by treating carbon debt like financial debt, and by imposing interest on carbon debt. Interest payments would be treated as a rental fee for temporarily storing CO2 in the atmosphere. Additionally, making CROs tradable assets facilitates the de-risking of intertemporal carbon markets.

The proposal resolves some of the inconsistencies in the current academic understanding of scenarios as well as foreseeable failures in climate policy over the long term. Instead of burdening future generations with excessive debt, CROs imply a more equitable distribution of financial flows and costs over time. Moreover, in climate mitigation scenarios, a larger portfolio of CO2 removal technologies usually goes hand in hand with increased carbon debt and therefore a greater reliance on CO2 removal in the future.

"CROs completely change how we see [carbon dioxide removals], from magical tools to enable a 30 year long period of the 'grand atmospheric restoration project' to a technology option that is developed and tested today and flexibly and more incrementally scaled throughout the 21st century and possibly beyond," noted study co-author Michael Obersteiner, director of the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at Oxford University and a senior research scholar at IIASA.

With CROs in place, carbon debt is penalized through interest payments. Should CROs be rolled out rapidly, the interest on carbon debt would incentivize large-scale near-term CO2 removal on top of conventional emission reductions. This would help to minimize carbon debt and its associated risks, and consequently facilitate a more rapid path to net-zero than scheduled by most countries.

###

UB team analyzes the impact of climate change in dry and hot periods in the Pyrenees

UNIVERSITY OF BARCELONA

 NEWS RELEASE 8-JUL-2021

Research News

IMAGE: PYRENEES VIEW. view more 

CREDIT: B. BONMATÍ

A team of the University of Barcelona has analysed for the first time what the dry and hot periods could be like in the area of the Pyrenees depending on different greenhouse emission scenarios. The results, published in the journal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, show that under an intermediate scenario, where these emissions that accelerate the climate change could be limited, there would not be a rise in long-lasting dry episodes, but temperatures would rise during these periods. On the other hand, if those emissions were not reduced during the 21st century, the summer no-rain periods would last an average of five more and, in addition, they would go with a rise of temperatures 6ºC over the current ones in the Pyrenees. According to the authors, these results would involve "a potential increase in environmental risks such as wildfires, crop yield losses, negative effects on biodiversity and water resources, etc.".

The study counts on the participation of the researcher Marc Lemus-Canovas, from the Climatology Groupof the UB, and the lecturer Joan Albert López-Bustins, from the Department of Geography. Both are members of the Water Research Institute of the UB.

Two variables that increase environmental risks

The study analysed, on the one hand, whether the length of consecutive days without rain has increased or will increase in the future, and on the other, whether the highest temperatures during the long-lasting dry periods will be higher than the current ones. This is the first time these variables are studied together in the area of the Pyrenees, in an approximation that enables avoiding an underestimation of the risk these climate conditions bring to the area. "Plants are under a hydric stress due to a combination of a long-lasting dry periods and a high temperature, and the stress is higher than if we analyse one of the compounds. The concurrence of long-lasting dry periods and extremely hot temperatures can bring environmental risks such as wildfires, crop yield losses, and in general, serious problems regarding the biodiversity of this area, which would not be detected by considering only one of the variables", says Marc Lemus.

The study used climate data from several parts of the Pyrenees (Catalan Pyrenees, Aragon Pyrenees, etc.) from 1981 to 2015, in the information obtained from the work carried out at the Pyrenees Climate Change Observatory, thanks to the CLIMPY project, which enabled recovering a great part of climate series. "These data show that to date, the risk of the simultaneous concurrence of long-lasting droughts and extreme temperatures has been increased by the raise of one of these cmpounds: temperature. This has taken place similarly in spring and summer and over the general area of the Pyrenees", notes the researcher.

More and more extreme temperatures

In order to estimate the evolution of these two variables during the rest of the 21st century, the researchers considered two out of the future scenarios of greenhouse emissions established by the UN Representative Concentration Pathways group. "Under an intermediate scenario of emissions (RCP4.5), assuming that by the middle of the century the emissions will start a process of stabilization and that by 2100 there will not be a growing trend of gas emissions, the pattern will continue to be the same: temperatures will be more extreme when these dry spells occur, but the length of these dry periods will not increase", describes the researcher.

On the other hand, this situation would substantially change under a scenario of high emissions (RCP8.5), where the volume of emissions would continue to rise during the whole century. Under these conditions, the authors detected that there would be, in spring, an increase in the length of dry periods, mainly in the eastern side of the Pyrenees, and a strong increase in thermal extremes during these dry spells. "Regarding summer, the length of days without rain will increase notably in the northern side of the Pyrenees (the wettest area of this territory) and there will also be a rise of extreme temperatures. The less exposed area to this factor in both elements would be the western area, with a higher Atlantic influence", notes Marc Lemus. According to the researchers, these results highlight the importance of stopping the increasing trend of greenhouse emissions. "We saw it is not ideal in an intermediate scenario because the thermal increase is notable. However, a dramatic increase in the length of dry periods and in extreme temperatures at the same time could lead to a catastrophic scenario, due to the involvements it could have in a fragile area where the 59% of the surface is covered by forests", they warn.

In this sense, the research states that this study should provide "more arguments to the provision of public resources for the actors that work on forest and ecological management of the Pyrenees, in order to adapt it for the future. And mainly, to promote a mitigation policy on climate change which is our pending subject", he concludes.

Recently, the Climatology Group of the UB has received a favourable resolution from the Spanish Ministry on Science and Innovation for the grant of a research project titled "Eventos compuestos secos y cálidos en la España peninsular", which will enable the team to receive resources to continue working on this research line for the next three years.

###

 

Many nonprofits, companies report using commercial species in tree planting projects

NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY

Research News

Nonprofits and companies planting trees in the tropics may often pick species for their commercial rather than ecological value, researchers found in a new analysis of organizations' publicly available data. They also found many may not have tracked the trees' survival.

Tree planting is a promising, but controversial, restoration strategy for fighting climate change. A new study in the journal Biological Conservation provides a detailed look at what restoration organizations across the tropics are actually doing on the ground.

"We found some organizations placed an emphasis on biological diversity and forest restoration in their mission statements. When we looked at the species they reported planting, many organizations reported planting commercial species, with chocolate, mango and teak in the top five," said the study's first author Meredith Martin, assistant professor of forestry and environmental resources at NC State. Martin led the study with researchers from The Nature Conservancy, a nonprofit that was also included in the analysis.

For the study, researchers analyzed publicly available data from websites and annual reports for 136 nonprofits and 38 for-profit companies, gathered using internet searches and referrals from Yale University's Environmental Leadership and Training Initiative. Their analysis included projects focused on forest conservation, economic development, or humanitarian aims in 74 different countries, all located in the tropics or subtropics. Brazil, Kenya and Indonesia were the countries with the largest number of projects.

Of these organizations, 118 reported the numbers of trees they planted. In total, they reported planting a total of 1.4 billion trees since 1961. At their estimated average rate of planting in the tropics, it would take more than a thousand years to plant a trillion trees - a goal set by at least three global initiatives.

Organizations reported planting a total of 682 species - a fraction of the roughly 50,000 species of trees found in the tropics, Martin said. Without having access to data about numbers of trees planted by species, they estimated the percentage of organizations planting certain species. The most commonly reported species, ranked by number of projects reporting those species, were cacao, teak, moringa, mango and coffee.

Nearly half of the groups didn't mention their planting method. The most common planting method was agroforestry, which is the integration of trees into animal or crop farming operations. Ten percent talked about planting using assisted regeneration, seven percent focused on enrichment planting, and two percent focused on natural regeneration.

"There's been a lot of research looking at natural regeneration, which is protecting a forest and letting it regrow," Martin said. "It can be cheaper, and more effective in terms of accumulating biomass and species diversity. There are also ways of assisting regeneration to encourage the species you want."

Thirty-two individual organizations mentioned monitoring tree survival. Of those, eight mentioned measuring survival rates and seven mentioned maintenance of plantings. Three groups gave detailed information about monitoring, and two mentioned they worked with outside groups for monitoring or certification.

"If you're not monitoring whether the trees you're planting are surviving, or taking steps to ensure they're surviving or growing, that could be a waste of money and effort," Martin said.

Researchers say the findings are important as groups increasingly look to plant trees to mitigate climate change.

"Trees are natural and incredibly efficient carbon capture entities," Martin said. "They're also living organisms. They're not just machines we can put down anywhere. Organizations need to be thoughtful about what species they are going to use and how they make sure they match the environment, as well as tracking to make sure they're not wasting money on something that doesn't work."

###

The study, "People plant trees for utility more often than for biodiversity or carbon," was published online in Biological Conservation on July 7, 2021. In addition to Martin, the other authors were David J. Woodbury, Danica A. Doroski, Eliot Nagele, Michael Storace, Susan C. Cook-Patton, Rachel Pasternack and Mark S. Ashton. Funding was provided by The Nature Conservancy to Yale University under grant No. P117456, GLT Global Forestry and Wood Products. Martin completed the work while based at Yale.

Note to editors: The abstract follows.

"People plant trees for utility more often than for biodiversity or carbon"

Authors: Meredith Martin, David J. Woodbury, Danica A. Doroski, Eliot Nagele, Michael Storace, Susan C. Cook-Patton, Rachel Pasternack and Mark S. Ashton.

Published online July 7, 2021, in Biological Conservation.

DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109224

Abstract: Tree planting is both a promising and controversial solution to climate change and biodiversity loss. However, this controversy is largely theoretical because we lack detailed information of how tree planting is proceeding on-the-ground. Here, we compiled a pantropical dataset of 174 tree planting organizations to determine the type of organizations involved in tree planting, their geographic locations and tree planting approaches. We found that the number of organizations have increased by 288% in the past 30 years, especially for-profit organizations. These organizations reported planting nearly 1.4 billion trees across 74 countries since 1961. Most frequently organizations reported establishing agroforestry systems or mixed species and single species plantations or using assisted natural regeneration suggesting that tree planting programs are designed to support local communities as well as environmental objectives. Moreover, the most frequently reported species were commercial or utilitarian, with the top five including cacao, teak, moringa, mango and coffee. Finally, despite widespread efforts to plant more trees, there was a pronounced lack of monitoring on websites and in reports; only 18% of organizations mention monitoring at all, and only 5% mention measuring survival rate of plantings. Greater transparency and greater communication are needed between planting organizations and researchers to apply the most effective ways to restore forest cover. Further, while organizations often aimed to counter environmental problems, the use of the same sets of commercially useful species to meet economic development goals across the global indicates a need for greater coordination among organizations to avoid biotic homogenization.

FIRST PERSON 'SHOOTER' GAME

Red Dead Redemption 2 teaches players about wildlife

UNIVERSITY OF EXETER

Research News

 

IMAGE: BLUE JAY view more 

CREDIT: MATTHEW SILK

Players of the popular game Red Dead Redemption 2 learn how to identify real American wildlife, new research shows.

The game, set in the American West in 1899, features simulations of about 200 real species of animals.

The new study, by the University of Exeter and Truro and Penwith College, challenged gamers to identify photographs of real animals.

On average, RDR2 players were able to identify 10 of 15 American animals in a multiple-choice quiz - three more than people who had not played the game.

The best performers were players who had completed the game's main storyline (meaning they had played for at least 40-50 hours) or had played more recently.

As well as learning to identify wildlife, some players reported learning about animal behaviour and ecology.

One gamer who participated in the study said RDR2 taught them how to spot a ram that's about to charge, adding: "No joke saved me from breaking a leg in real life."

Dr Sarah Crowley, of the Centre for Geography and Environmental Science at the University of Exeter, said: "The level of detail in Red Dead Redemption 2 is famously high, and that's certainly the case in terms of animals.

"Many of the animals not only look and behave realistically, but interact with each other. Possums play dead, bears bluff charge and eagles hunt snakes."

Co-author Dr Matthew Silk added: "The game features a couple of species that are now much rarer, and one - the Carolina parakeet - that's extinct.

"Hunting played a role in the Carolina parakeet's extinction; if players shoot this species in the game, they are warned of their endangered status. If they continue shooting, the species becomes extinct, highlighting the environmental consequences of players' actions."

The study used real photos of 15 species featured in the game, including the white-tailed deer, jackrabbit, alligator snapping turtle, lake sturgeon, blue jay and roseate spoonbill.

Gamers participating in the study could first enter the name of each animal as text, and were then shown multiple choice options.

The difference in identification skills between players and non-players was generally greatest for animals that are useful in the game, such as fish that can be caught and eaten.

Animals that are rarer in the game, such as the golden eagle, were less commonly identified.

The game also includes an online "naturalist" role that allows players to take up a new life as a protector of the Old West's wildlife - and people who had played this were better still at identifying the real-life animals.

In total, 586 people from 55 countries completed the quiz. 444 had played RDR2.

"We know that many gamers value realism, so game producers might be interested to see these findings, but we realise these games aren't designed to be educational," said Ned Crowley, of Truro and Penwith College.

"We don't expect big-budget games to include messages about conservation, but educators and conservationists can learn from the techniques used in games - such as making things immersive, and having each action mean something in terms of wider progress in the game.

"Being indoors on a computer is often seen as the opposite of engaging with nature, but our findings show that games can teach people about animals without even trying.

"Gaming is very popular, and should be taken seriously by ecologists and conservationists as a force for communication."

CAPTION

White-tailed deer

CREDIT

Matthew Silk

The paper, published in the journal People and Nature, is entitled: "The educational value of virtual ecologies in Red Dead Redemption 2."

Tropical Storm Elsa disturbs nearly 150 sea turtle nests on Pinellas County beaches

While Tropical Storm Elsa damage did not impact a lot of people in the Tampa Bay area, it did disturb nearly 150 sea turtle nests on Pinellas County beaches.


By: Wendi Lane
Posted at 6:16 PM, Jul 08, 2021
and last updated 4:41 PM, Jul 08, 2021

CLEARWATER, Fla. — While Tropical Storm Elsa damage did not impact a lot of people in the Tampa Bay area, it did disturb nearly 150 sea turtle nests on Pinellas County beaches.

Clearwater Marine Aquarium says nearly 75% of the 200 sea turtle nests on Pinellas County beaches were impacted by storm surge.

Now teams of volunteers that work with CMA and monitor turtle nests along 20 miles of Pinellas coastline, are working to redo the work they’ve already done this season. This means locating the nests, replacing markers, and putting up signs.

"Unfortunately, the biggest threat to these nests is water. Who would’ve thought, right? They live in the water. But it's actually detrimental to the animals that live in these nests, the little baby sea turtles," said Kelly Martin, director of animal care for CMA.

Martin says it will take us a few days to “clear” the beaches for public access. Which typically includes a delay in placing any hotel cabanas, furniture, and beach cleaning that may occur.

If you see a sea turtle, nest, or hatchling in distress, Martin says do not touch or interfere with the animal, instead call the aquarium's hotline at 727-441-1790 ext. 1.

UCF study finds smaller turtles are nesting on Florida beaches

The findings give clues to the health and status of the threatened species

UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA

Research News

 

 

ORLANDO, July 8, 2021 - A new University of Central Florida study indicates that smaller loggerhead and green sea turtles are nesting on Florida beaches than in the past; however, researchers aren't sure why.

The findings, published this month in the journal Ecosphere, give clues to the status of the turtles, which is important to researchers who are monitoring the population health of the threatened species.

Central Florida's Atlantic coastline hosts about one-third of all green turtle nests in the state and is one of the most important nesting areas in the world for loggerheads.

Sea turtles are important as iconic symbols of conservation in Florida and for the role they play in maintaining a healthy ocean ecosystem.

The reason for the appearance of smaller nesting turtles is still a mystery though, says Katrina Phillips, the study's lead author and a doctoral candidate in UCF's Department of Biology.

"It might be that juvenile turtles are growing more slowly because they are having a harder time finding food as a result of habitat degradation or competition from other turtles," Phillips says. "Or smaller turtles may also be new recruits to the population as a result of successful sea turtle conservation efforts. We don't know why we're seeing more small turtles nesting."

The researchers made the discovery by comparing shell length of nearly 10,000 nesting female loggerheads and more than 3,000 nesting female green turtles. The measurements were collected by UCF's Marine Turtle Research Group over the course of a 37-year period, from 1982 to 2019.

The nesting turtles were observed in the Brevard County portion of the Archie Carr National Wildlife Refuge. Age is not recorded or known because it requires examining a cross-section of the turtle's leg bone, which would require invasively sampling the turtle, and even then, at best, age would be estimated.

The researchers found that the average size of nesting loggerheads decreased by nearly 1 inch and the average size of nesting green sea turtles decreased by more than 1.5 inches since 1982.

In addition to raising questions about why the turtles are smaller, the findings also mean that when estimating female sea turtle maturity based on size, researchers and management agencies will need to consider smaller turtles in their estimates.

"The numbers we provide for the minimum size range of mature females will help other groups who study turtles in the water, where it's not clear if they are mature or not, better estimate which of theirs are juveniles," she says.

The extensive study was made possible by the long-time work of UCF's Marine Sea Turtle Research Group, the researcher says.

"Many nesting beach projects take these measurements, but the UCF project is unique because of how long it's been going on and how many turtles come ashore to nest here," Phillips says. "Florida gets more loggerhead nests than anywhere else in the world, and the green turtle nest numbers are rising."

The monitoring project was started in 1982 by UCF Professor Emeritus and Pegasus Professor of Biology Llewellyn "Doc" Ehrhart.

Phillips says the UCF Marine Turtle Research Group will continue monitoring the nesting sites, which will allow researchers to assess if the trends continue or change.

###

Study co-authors were Gustavo D. Stahelin, a doctoral candidate in UCF's Department of Biology; Ryan M. Chabot, a graduate of UCF's master's in biology and bachelor's in environmental studies programs; and Katherine L. Mansfield, UCF's Davis-Shine Endowed Professor in Conservation Biology and director of UCF's Marine Turtle Research Group.

CONTACT: Robert H. Wells, Office of Research, robert.wells@ucf.edu

Understanding QAnon’s Connection to American Politics, Religion, and Media Consumption

PRRI Staff,
05.27.2021

Three Components of the QAnon Conspiracy Movement

The far-right conspiracy theory movement known as QAnon emerged on the internet in late 2017 and gained traction throughout former president Donald Trump’s time in office. QAnon’s core theory revolves around Satan-worshipping pedophiles plotting against Trump and a coming “storm” that would clear out those evil forces, but the movement has also been described as a “big tent conspiracy theory” that involves a constantly evolving web of schemes about politicians, celebrities, bankers, and the media, as well as echoes of older movements within Christianity, such as Gnosticism.

To understand how this loosely connected belief system is influencing American politics, religion, and media, we fielded three questions, each containing a tenet of the QAnon conspiracy movement.


QAnon Beliefs and Partisanship

A nontrivial 15% of Americans agree with the sweeping QAnon allegation that “the government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation,” while the vast majority of Americans (82%) disagree with this statement. Republicans (23%) are significantly more likely than independents (14%) and Democrats (8%) to agree that the government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation.

Similarly, one in five Americans (20%) agree with the statement “There is a storm coming soon that will sweep away the elites in power and restore the rightful leaders,” while a majority (77%) disagree. Nearly three in ten Republicans (28%), compared to 18% of independents and 14% of Democrats, agree with this secondary QAnon conspiracy theory. Trends among demographic groups are similar to those of the core QAnon conspiracy theory.

Fifteen percent of Americans agree that “Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country,” while the vast majority (85%) disagree. Republicans (28%) are twice as likely as independents (13%) and four times as likely as Democrats (7%) to agree that because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence.
QAnon Beliefs and Media Consumption

The sources that Americans turn to for news are closely linked with openness to QAnon views. Americans are most likely to say the television news sources they trust most to provide accurate information about politics and current events are the major broadcast networks (17%), such as ABC, CBS, and NBC. One in ten or more report most trusting local television news (13%), Fox News (11%), and CNN (10%). Fewer rely on public television (8%), MSNBC (5%), and far-right news networks (3%) such as One America News Network (OANN) and Newsmax. Three in ten (30%) say that they do not watch television news, and 2% report turning to some other source.

Around four in ten Americans who say they most trust far-right news outlets such as OANN and Newsmax (40%) for television news agree with the statement that “the government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation.” Around one in five Americans who do not watch television news (21%) and trust Fox News (18%) agree. Around one in ten Americans or less who trust local news (12%), CNN (11%), broadcast networks such as ABC, CBS, and NBC (8%), public television (7%), and MSNBC (5%) believe this core tenet of QAnon.

Nearly half of Americans who trust far-right news (48%) and one-third who trust Fox News (34%) agree with the statement that “There is a storm coming soon that will sweep away the elites in power and restore the rightful leaders.” About one in five who do not watch television news (22%), those who report trusting local news most (18%), and those who report trusting CNN most (17%) agree with this theory. Fewer Americans who trust MSNBC (14%), broadcast news (12%) or public television (11%) agree.

Around four in ten Americans who most trust far-right news sources (42%) and around one in four who most trust Fox News (27%) agree that “Because things have gotten so far off track, true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.” Less than one in five Americans who do not watch television news (19%) or who trust local news (16%) agree, and less than one in ten who trust CNN (9%), broadcast news (8%), public television (7%), or MSNBC (7%) agree.


QAnon Beliefs and Religion

Generally speaking, across all three questions, white evangelical Protestants, Hispanic Protestants, and Mormons are more likely than other groups to agree with each of these tenets of the QAnon conspiracy movement.

Hispanic Protestants (26%), white evangelical Protestants (25%), and other Protestants of color (24%) are more likely than other religious groups to agree that the government, media, and financial worlds in the U.S. are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global child sex trafficking operation.[1] Less than one in five Mormon (18%), Hispanic Catholic (16%), Black Protestant (15%), other Christian (14%), non-Christian religious (13%), white Catholic (11%), religiously unaffiliated (11%), white mainline Protestant (10%), and Jewish Americans (8%) agree with this statement.[2]

Approximately one in four or more Hispanic Protestants (29%), Hispanic Catholics (27%), white evangelical Protestants (26%), Black Protestants (25%), other Protestants of color (24%), and other Christians (24%) agree that there is a storm coming that will sweep away the elites in power. Fewer Mormons (22%), white Catholics (19%), white mainline Protestants (18%), and members of other non-Christian religions (17%) agree. Religiously unaffiliated (12%) and Jewish Americans (6%) are the least likely to agree with this statement.

With the exceptions of white evangelical Protestants (24%) and Mormons (24%), less than one in five members of all other religious groups agree with this idea, including white mainline Protestants (18%), other Protestants of color (17%), Hispanic Catholics (17%), white Catholics (16%), other Christians (15%), Black Protestants (12%), Hispanic Protestants (12%), religiously unaffiliated Americans (12%), and members of other non-Christian religions (11%). Jewish Americans (6%) are the least likely to agree that true American patriots may have to resort to violence.



A Profile of QAnon Believers

The QAnon Conspiracy Scale

PRRI created a composite measure from the three questions that acknowledge the core tenets of QAnon beliefs. Responses to these questions were combined into an additive scale, which was then recoded into three groups: 1. QAnon believers: Respondents who completely or mostly agreed with these statements (14%); 2. QAnon doubters: Respondents who mostly disagreed with these statements (46%); and 3. QAnon rejecters: Respondents who completely disagreed with all three statements (40%).

Republicans (23%) are notably more likely than independents (12%) and Democrats (7%) to be QAnon believers. A majority of Republicans (55%), nearly half of independents (48%), and over one-third of Democrats (35%) are QAnon doubters. A majority of Democrats (58%) are QAnon rejecters, compared to 40% of independents and 21% of Republicans.



About one in five white evangelical Protestants (22%), Hispanic Protestants (21%), and Mormons (21%) are QAnon believers. Fewer Hispanic Catholics (17%), other Protestants of color (16%), other Christians (14%), Black protestants (13%), white Catholics (13%), and members of non-Christian religions (12%) are QAnon believers. Religiously unaffiliated Americans (9%) and Jewish Americans (2%) are least likely to hold these beliefs.

Conversely, Jewish Americans (60%) and religiously unaffiliated Americans (57%), are the most likely to be QAnon rejecters. Pluralities of members of non-Christian religions (46%), white Catholics (45%), and other Christians (44%) are also QAnon rejecters. Four in ten white mainline Protestants (39%) are QAnon rejecters, as are about three in ten Black Protestants (32%), Hispanic Catholics (30%), Hispanic Protestants (30%), and other Protestants of color (29%). Fewer Mormons (24%) and white evangelical Protestants (21%) are QAnon rejecters. Majorities of white evangelical Protestants (58%), Mormons (55%), other Protestants of color (55%), Black Protestants (55%), and Hispanic Catholics (54%) are QAnon doubters.



Americans without a college education are three times as likely as Americans with a college education to be QAnon believers (18% vs. 6%).

Notably, those who trust far-right news sources most (48%) are by far the most likely to be QAnon believers. One in five of those who most trust Fox News (20%) or do not watch television news (18%) are also QAnon believers, compared to fewer of those who most trust local news (12%), CNN (10%), public television (8%), broadcast networks (5%), or MSNBC (5%).

Americans who trust public television (65%) are most likely to be QAnon rejecters, followed by those who trust MSNBC (60%), broadcast networks (55%), and CNN (51%). About one-third of those who trust local news (35%) and do not watch television news (32%) are QAnon rejecters, compared to only 14% of those who most trust Fox News and 12% of those who most trust far-right sources.
Modeling Those Most Likely to Agree With QAnon Conspiracy Theories

PRRI constructed a logistic regression model to explain which characteristics are independently associated with QAnon conspiracy beliefs. In the table below, the dependent variable is the QAnon believer category from the QAnon Conspiracy Scale above.



The independent variables are grouped into four categories: political orientation, media consumption, religious affiliation, and socioeconomic and demographic traits. Table 1 shows the statistically significant results.

Interestingly, even after controlling for partisanship and ideology, media news consumption is by far the strongest independent predictor of QAnon beliefs. Remarkably, those who report most trusting far-right media sources are nearly nine times more likely to be QAnon believers compared to those who most trust broadcast networks such as ABC, CBS, and NBC. Those who most trust Fox News and those who do not watch television news are 2.3 and 2.5 times, respectively, more likely than those who watch broadcast networks to be QAnon believers.

Even with a range of controls in place, Republicans and conservatives are twice as likely as Democrats and liberals to be QAnon believers.

Accounting for everything else, Hispanic Catholics (2.9) and Hispanic Protestants (2.7) are about three times more likely than the religiously unaffiliated to be QAnon believers. Similarly, white Catholics (1.8), white evangelical Protestants (1.6), and white mainline Protestants (1.6) are nearly twice as likely as the religiously unaffiliated to be QAnon believers.

Americans of other races and Black Americans are more likely than white Americans to agree with the conspiracy theories, but this is likely due to the fact that race, party, ideology, and religious affiliation are also in the model. Lower education, male gender, lower income, lower age, and living in rural areas are also associated with higher likelihoods of QAnon beliefs.

The Association Between QAnon Beliefs and Other Conspiracy Theories

Those who believe in QAnon conspiracy theories are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories generally. While 29% of all Americans agree with the “big lie” that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from Donald Trump, 73% of QAnon believers say this is true. QAnon doubters (37%) are still more likely than average to believe the election was stolen, but only 7% of QAnon rejecters agree that the election was stolen from Trump.

About four in ten Americans (39%) agree that the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 was developed intentionally by scientists in a lab, but 85% of QAnon believers think this. That drops to under half of QAnon doubters (47%) who believe the virus was created intentionally in a lab. Only 16% of QAnon rejecters think the coronavirus was created intentionally.

A small segment of Americans (9%) agree that the COVID-19 vaccine contains a surveillance microchip that is the sign of the beast in biblical prophecy. This figure jumps to 39% among QAnon believers, but only 6% of QAnon doubters and 1% of QAnon rejecters agree.



Survey Methodology and Citations
Methodology

The survey was designed and conducted by PRRI and IFYC among a random sample of 5,149 adults (age 18 and up) living in all 50 states in the United States and who are part of Ipsos’s Knowledge Panel and an additional 476 who were recruited by Ipsos using opt-in survey panels to increase the sample sizes in smaller states. The full sample is weighted to be representative of the U.S. population. Interviews were conducted online between March 8 and 30, 2021.

Respondents are recruited to the KnowledgePanel using an addressed-based sampling methodology from the Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery addresses in the U.S. As such, it covers all households regardless of their phone status, providing a representative online sample. Unlike opt-in panels, households are not permitted to “self-select” into the panel; and are generally limited to how many surveys they can take within a given time period.

The initial sample drawn from the KnowledgePanel was adjusted using pre-stratification weights so that it approximates the adult U.S. population defined by the latest March supplement of the Current Population Survey. Next, a probability proportional to size (PPS) sampling scheme was used to select a representative sample.

To reduce the effects of any non-response bias, a post-stratification adjustment was applied based on demographic distributions from the most recent American Community Survey (ACS). The post-stratification weight rebalanced the sample based on the following benchmarks: age, race and ethnicity, gender, Census division, metro area, education, and income. The sample weighting was accomplished using an iterative proportional fitting (IFP) process that simultaneously balances the distributions of all variables. Weights were trimmed to prevent individual interviews from having too much influence on the final results. In addition to an overall national weight, separate weights were computed for each state to ensure that the demographic characteristics of the sample closely approximate the demographic characteristics of the target populations. The state-level post-stratification weights rebalanced the sample based on the following benchmarks: age, race and ethnicity, gender, education, and income.

These weights from the KnowledgePanel cases were then used as the benchmarks for the additional opt-in sample in a process called “calibration.” This calibration process is used to correct for inherent biases associated with nonprobability opt-in panels. The calibration methodology aims to realign respondents from nonprobability samples with respect to a multidimensional set of measures to improve their representation.

The margin of error for the national survey is +/- 1.5 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence, including the design effect for the survey of 1.4. In addition to sampling error, surveys may also be subject to error or bias due to question wording, context, and order effects. Additional details about the KnowledgePanel can be found on the Ipsos website:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/solution/knowledgepanel
Appendix
Table 1. Demographic, Political, Religious, and Geographic Subgroup Sample Sizes

(Unweighted)
N=
Total Sample 5,625

Male 2,604
Female 3,021

Republican 1,656
Independent 1,746
Democrat 1,762
Other/Don’t know 461

White, non-Hispanic 4,136
Black, non-Hispanic 480
Hispanic 602
Multiracial 167
Other 240


Age 18-29 538
30-49 1,552
50-64 1,742
65+ 1,793


White evangelical Protestant 921
White mainline Protestant 960
Black Protestant 329
Hispanic Protestant 113
Other nonwhite Protestant 151
White Catholic 911
Hispanic Catholic 343
Mormon 105
Other Christian 161
Jewish 139
Other non-Christian religion 176
Religiously unaffiliated 1,275
Don’t know/refused 41


[1] “Other Protestant of color” includes all Protestants who are not white, Black, or Hispanic (including Asian American or Pacific Islander, multiracial, Native American, and any other race or ethnicity). Categories were combined due to sample size limitations.

[2]“Other Christian” includes all Christians who are not specified in any other category, including Catholics who are Black, Asian American or Pacific Islander, multiracial, Native American, and any other race or ethnicity; Jehovah’s Witnesses; Orthodox Christians; and any other Christian group. “Other non-Christian religion” includes those who are Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist, Unitarian Universalist, and any other world religion. Categories were combined due to sample size limitations.

Recommended Citation

“Understanding QAnon’s Connection to American Politics, Religion, and Media Consumption” PRRI-IFYC (May 27, 2021). www.prri.org/research/qanon-conspiracy-american-politics–report/

#2 QANON GOP RUNNER UP REP WAKADOODLE

Rep. Lauren Boebert: 'Did I wake up in Communist China?'

Rep. Lauren Boebert says Biden’s COVID vaccine staff are ‘Needle Nazis.’


Ben Sales, JTA , Jul 09 , 2021

US Representative Lauren Boebert (R-CO)
Photo by Michael Brochstein/Sipa USA via REUTERS


Rep. Lauren Boebert compared federal COVID-19 vaccination efforts to Nazism, tweeting that US President Joe Biden “has deployed his Needle Nazis” to her Colorado district.

Boebert, a first-term Republican, posted the tweet above a video of White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki discussing the administration’s efforts to raise vaccination rates through targeted outreach around the country. Psaki mentioned Mesa County, which is in Boebert’s district.

In addition to Nazism, Boebert also compared the outreach to communism in China.

“Biden has deployed his Needle Nazis to Mesa County,” she wrote on Thursday. “The people of my district are more than smart enough to make their own decisions about the experimental vaccine and don’t need coercion by federal agents. Did I wake up in Communist China?”

There have been no reports of government officials forcing people to be vaccinated.

Boebert’s tweet comes two days after Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, another first-term Republican, tweeted that canvassers doing vaccine outreach are “medical brown shirts,” a reference to a Nazi Party militia.

Boebert has also previously used the term “brown shirts” to refer to the enforcement of public health measures by Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, who is Jewish.

“Here in Garfield County where my restaurant is, restaurants are closing once again because Governor Polis has sent his Brown Shirts in to make sure everyone shuts down,” she told a local radio station in January.

Both Boebert and Greene have praised QAnon, the pro-Donald Trump conspiracy theory with anti-Semitic roots, before they both distanced themselves from it. Greene has repeatedly compared policies she opposes to Nazi actions, which she apologized for after touring the US Holocaust Memorial Museum last month. Her “brown shirts” comment came three weeks after that visit.

Climate change likely to increase spread of mosquito-borne diseases
By HealthDay News

Climate change could put billions more people at risk for deadly mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue, researchers said. They see the danger zone expanding within the United States, Europe and Asia.

If temperatures rise by about 3.7 degrees Celsius by the year 2100 compared to pre-industrial levels, 4.7 billion more people globally may be at risk for the diseases compared to the years 1970 to 1999, according to a new modeling study.

That means that 8.4 billion people worldwide could be at risk for malaria and dengue by the end of the century, particularly those in lowland and urban areas, the findings indicated. The results appear this week in The Lancet Planetary Health journal.

The study predicts a northward shift of the malaria-epidemic belt in North America, central northern Europe and northern Asia, and a northward shift of the dengue-epidemic belt over central northern Europe and the northern United States.

RELATED  Study: Pandemics spread in much the same way as invasive insects

Malaria and dengue are the most significant mosquito-borne global health threats. They're being found in more areas, emerging in previously unaffected places and reemerging in locations where they had subsided for decades, the European researchers said.

Malaria is shifting toward higher altitudes, and urbanization is associated with increasing dengue risk.

"Our results highlight why we must act to reduce emissions to limit climate change," said study co-author Felipe Colón-González, an assistant professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

RELATED  Climate change drives malaria transmission in Africa, study shows

"This work strongly suggests that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could prevent millions of people from contracting malaria and dengue. The results show low-emission scenarios significantly reduce length of transmission, as well as the number of people at risk," Colón-González said in a school news release. "Action to limit global temperature increases well below 2 degrees C must continue."

He added that policymakers and public health officials should get ready for all scenarios, including those where emissions remain at high levels.

"This is particularly important in areas that are currently disease-free and where the health systems are likely to be unprepared for major outbreaks," Colón-González said

 .
RELATED  New malaria vaccine offers 77% protection against deadly parasite, researchers say

Increased surveillance in potential hotspot areas will be important, especially in places without previous experience of dengue or malaria, said study co-author Rachel Lowe, an associate professor at London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.More information

The World Health Organization has more on malaria, dengue and other vector-borne diseases.


Copyright © 2021 HealthDay. All rights reserved.

Being a Journalist Is Ticket to Arrest, Myanmar Editor Says
By Tommy Walker
July 08, 2021 06:19 PM

FILE - DVB’s editorial director Aye Chan Naing delivers a speech during a seminar at Inya Lake hotel in Yangon, Myanmar, Sept.24, 2012.


BANGKOK - For about 20 years, the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) broadcast uncensored news into Myanmar from exile. When a civilian government came to power in 2011, the independent outlet was finally able to open a newsroom in Yangon, the largest city in Myanmar.

But that significant step for media freedom took a backward step in February when the military seized power and immediately turned its sights on the country’s press.

This photo released by the San Sai District Administrative Office in Thailand, shows a room where journalists working for Democratic Voice of Burma were arrested, May 9, 2021

The internet was cut, dozens of journalists were jailed, and more than 10 media outlets, including the DVB, had their licenses revoked.

“We are totally illegal in the country. The military revoked our license, not only revoking our license, but also mak(ing) it illegal to produce any kind of media product (including) on Facebook, YouTube, and social media,” DVB’s editorial director Aye Chan Naing told VOA from an undisclosed location.

“In fact, right after the coup, one hour after the coup, they pulled the plug for our channel,” he said.

More than five months have passed since Myanmar’s military coup sparked the country’s third major uprising in three decades. With hundreds of pro-democracy protesters killed and thousands more detained, the country is in crisis.

Amid its crackdown on opposition, the junta — officially the State Administrative Council — focused its efforts on targeting Myanmar’s independent media.

Since February 1, at least 89 journalists have been arrested, 36 of whom are still detained, according to the Detained Journalist Information Facebook group and Reporting ASEAN, an organization documenting the crackdown and unreported stories from Asia.

A dozen journalists were freed last week as part of a wider release of about 2,300 people. The Associated Press cited Major General Zaw Min Tun, deputy information minister, as saying those released had taken part in protests but not violence.

Myanmar’s Ministry of Information also released a statement claiming the State Administrative Council was in control because of a state of emergency.  
Myanmar's military junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun speaks during the information ministry's press conference in Naypyitaw, Myanmar, March 23, 2021.

Country in conflict

February’s military takeover marked the end of a brief decade of civilian government.

Formerly known as Burma, Myanmar had gained independence from Britain, but from 1962 until 2011 it was under military control.

In 1988, the 8888 Uprising against military rule was met with violence. An estimated 3,000 people were killed and others were “disappeared,” rights groups including Amnesty International say.

DVB was founded four years later, in 1992, initially transmitting radio programs throughout the country while based in Oslo, Norway, and Chiang Mai, Thailand.

By 2005, DVB was broadcasting satellite television, and after the country’s democratic reforms in 2011, the media outlet in 2012 moved to Yangon.

Under the governance of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy party, DVB in 2018 began broadcasting on digital terrestrial television.

That is, until this year’s coup.

It’s now too risky for DVB journalists to operate from company offices because of the military crackdown, Aye Chan Naing said.

“We are now pretty much decentralized, different groups, different locations, but we coordinate online with each other. That is the future of how we are going to continue to work. We do not have headquarters or office … the most important (thing) we need is a secure place to operate,” he said.

The broadcaster is working with a couple of hundred citizen journalists, some of whom are on the run, he said.

“We do still have lots of contacts in the country, and we rely pretty much on citizen journalists, freelancers, stringers. We decentralized for security purposes, a lot of people work individually, not as a group, so they can pretty much keep low profile pretty much across the whole of the country,” he said.

Aye Chan Naing said his reporters have learned to be discreet, using multiple cellphones and carrying no press identification.

“We are still getting lots of information every day. If you look at the uprising in February, March during the crackdown, with the mobile phone and internet, it’s almost like the whole county became a journalist,” Aye Chan Naing said.

“Our main job is verifying the story,” he added. “That’s the thing, we do have our own sources, so we can double-check or triple-check.”

The risk of arrest is ever present for DVB’s team. Three of the broadcaster’s journalists have been convicted and sentenced to between two and three years in prison under Section 505(a) of Myanmar’s penal code. Three others are in pre-trial detention in Yangon’s Insein prison.

Section 505(a) penalizes incitement and has regularly been cited in the arrests of protesters and journalists since the coup.

Nathan Maung was arrested from his offices at Kamayut Media in March, weeks after Myanmar's military seized power in a coup. (Photo courtesy of Nathan Maung)

But for the thousands detained under the law, jail isn’t the only concern. Journalists who were recently released, including American Nathan Maung, described to VOA being beaten and tortured.

Others said they were held in overcrowded cells with no access to family or outside information.

Aye Chan Naing said at least two of his journalists were beaten during questioning.

“The danger is once they get arrested, during the interrogation,” Aye Chan Naing said. After they have been charged, “it’s a lot less trouble. But of course, the prison conditions are really bad,” he added.

Myanmar’s military council press spokesperson did not respond to VOA’s message requesting comment.

In a statement to VOA earlier this month, a spokesperson did not directly respond to questions about allegations of torture and beatings but said that authorities carry out questioning of suspects "in accordance with the rule and regulations."

Because of the risks, some journalists have fled. But that too can bring legal problems.

Thai authorities detained three senior DVB reporters in May for illegal entry into the country. Last month, the reporters were granted refuge overseas; Aye Chan Naing did not disclose where they are living.

Journalists Who Fled Myanmar Find Third-Country Refuge
Three staff members of the Democratic Voice of Burma and two other Myanmar nationals were arrested May 9 in northern Thailand; the country that took them in has not been disclosed

As the media crackdown continues, Aye Chan Naing admitted he’s had to reduce the number of employees working for DVB.

“Being an independent journalist is already a ticket to get arrested,” he said. “(They’re) already taking a pretty high risk and could easily get arrested.”

Aye Chan Naing said he believes the military is being “fooled by their own propaganda” and added that press freedom is taking huge blows.

“I think they want to be more like North Korea. They want to make sure (the people) don’t know what’s going on and (for) people to trust what they say,” he said, adding that DVB “will continue to operate and report” despite the difficulties.

Haitian Officials: 17 Members of Hit Squad Detained in Killing of President
By VOA News
July 09, 2021 

People protest against the assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse near the police station of Petion Ville in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, July 8, 2021.


More than a dozen people have been detained in the assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moise, officials said late Thursday.

Haitian authorities described a heavily armed hit squad of 28 "mercenaries,” made up of 26 Colombians and two Haitian Americans, involved in the killing of Moise, 53, at his private residence in a wealthy suburb of the capital, Port-au-Prince, before dawn on Wednesday.

Haiti National Police Director Leon Charles said Thursday that 17 men had been detained, the two American citizens and 15 Colombians.

Charles said that three suspects had been killed and eight were still at large. Earlier, police had said four suspects had been killed. Neither Charles nor police officials explained the discrepancy.

"The pursuit of the mercenaries continues," Charles said. "Their fate is fixed: They will fall in the fighting or will be arrested."

Early Friday, Taiwan released a statement saying that 11 suspects were caught on the grounds of the embassy in Port-au-Prince after attempting to flee police.

"The police launched an operation around 4:00 p.m. (Thursday) and managed to arrest 11 suspects," the Taiwanese Embassy statement said.

Mathias Pierre, Haiti's minister of elections, Thursday identified the two Haitian Americans as James Solages, 35, and Joseph Vincent, 55.

The U.S. State Department has not confirmed the reports that two U.S. citizens are in detention.

Late Thursday, Colombia’s government confirmed that at least six of the suspects, including two of those killed, appeared to be retired members of the Colombian army. It did not identify the suspects.

Interim Prime Minister Claude Joseph placed the country under a "state of siege" — in effect, martial law.

"This death will not go unpunished," Joseph told the impoverished nation of 11 million people in an address Wednesday.

Brian Concannon, a human rights lawyer, a former United Nations human rights officer, and the founder of the Institute for Justice and Democracy in Haiti, told VOA that the state of siege allows police to do "anything necessary" in pursuit of the killers.

"Although almost everybody wants the police to pursue the killers effectively, there's great concern that this can be abused to round up political opponents," he said.

"There really is nothing — no structures to stop the government from arresting its political opponents under this decre

Officials did not provide much further detail about the detained suspects, those killed in the gun battle or what led police to them. They said only that the attack was carried out by "a highly trained and heavily armed group," with the assailants speaking Spanish or English.

The motivation for the assassination remains unclear. Haiti has long endured poverty and political turmoil, however.

Carl Henry Destin, a Haitian judge, told Le Nouvelliste newspaper that the attackers had posed as agents of the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, but both U.S. and Haitian officials said the gunmen had no links to the agency.

Destin told the newspaper the attackers tied up a maid and another household staff worker as they headed to the president's bedroom, where they shot Moise at least 12 times.

"The offices and the president's bedroom were ransacked," Destin said. "We found him lying on his back, blue pants, white shirt stained with blood, mouth open, left eye blown out."

Moise's wife, Martine Moise, was injured in the attack and airlifted more than 1,100 kilometers to a trauma center in Miami, Florida, in the United States. Joseph, the prime minister, said she was "out of danger" and in stable condition.

While Joseph claimed leadership of Haiti, which shares the Caribbean island of Hispaniola with the Dominican Republic, his tenure may be short-lived.

Haiti's constitution says Moise should be replaced by the president of the country's Supreme Court, but the chief justice died recently from COVID-19. In addition, a day before his assassination, Moise had named Ariel Henry, a Haitian politician and neurosurgeon, to replace Joseph as prime minister.

In a brief interview with The Associated Press, Henry claimed he was the prime minister, but he acknowledged it was an unusual situation.

The United Nations Security Council called an emergency meeting for Thursday afternoon to discuss Haiti's crisis. In a statement, its members called for "all parties to remain calm, exercise restraint" and avoid "any act that could contribute to further instability."

U.S. President Joe Biden said he was "shocked and saddened" by the assassination.

"We condemn this heinous act," Biden said in a statement. "I am sending my sincere wishes for first lady Moise's recovery."

State Department correspondent Cindy Saine contributed to this report, which includes some information from The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse and Reuters.

RELATED STORIES

USA
Haitian Americans Worry About Relatives Back Home
Many say turmoil has left them feeling more helpless than ever for troubled country, able to offer little more than prayers
By Reuters
Thu, 07/08/2021 -

00:03:17
The Americas
US Pledges to Help Haiti in Assassination Investigation
Experts say US should resist any temptation to intervene militarily in Haiti after assassination of that country’s president and should support civil society there instead
By Cindy Saine
Thu, 07/08/2021 - 

The Americas
UN Envoy in Haiti: Police Have Cornered More Suspects in Moise Assassination
The UN’s top diplomat in Haiti said police have suspects surrounded in two buildings

By Margaret Besheer
Thu, 07/08/2021 - 

The Americas
Key Events in Haiti Before Killing of Haitian President Moise
Assassination occurred amid political and other crises in the Caribbean country
By VOA News
Thu, 07/08/2021 -