This little-known climate change hazard is creeping across northern Canada. These scientists are trying to fight it

By Steve McKinley Halifax Bureau
Sat., Nov. 20, 2021

There’s a subterranean menace stalking the highway outside of Whitehorse.

It is implacable, remorseless and, unless drastic measures are taken, inevitable.

If and when it reaches the Alaska Highway, many of the Yukon’s northern communities will be cut off from Whitehorse, as will that city’s only connection to neighbouring Alaska.

That’s why Fabrice Calmels, research chair in permafrost and geoscience at Yukon University, has dotted the area around it with sensors. He hopes to be able to give governments an early warning of the menace long before the ground begins to heave beneath their feet.

The menace is called a permafrost slump. It occurs when the permanently frozen layer of soil that underlies large swaths of Canada north of the 60th parallel begins to thaw.


When that layer contains a lot of water in the form of ice — in Canada, it most often does — and that ice thaws, the ground can often no longer support the weight on top of it.

When that happens, it can cause roads to sag or buckle. It can even cause sinkholes to open up in the middle of a roadway.


And, when the slumps happen, there is often a chain reaction — more permafrost is exposed to the air, accelerating the thawing, and the slumping becomes a runaway process.


To be fair, the menace, located about 34 kilometres west of Whitehorse airport by road, is more of a tortoise than a hare.

It has moved 69 metres over the past five years, and it now sits 37 metres from the road. But it’s picked up the pace recently. Over the past summer — fuelled in part by a two-week spell of above 30 C weather — it has moved a whopping 18 metres.

If it continues at its current average pace — which is not a given — it will cross paths with the highway in two or three years. Yukon’s Department of Highways and Public Works is already looking at ways to mitigate the problem.

They’re considering everything from detouring the highway to finding ways to keep the permafrost cool to digging down to replace and stabilize the ground below the highway.

The problem, says Idrees Muhammad, manager of design and construction for the department, is that all those options are expensive, part of the cost of trying to build on permafrost.


Calmels’ sensors are the first stage of an early-warning system for permafrost slump, which he is developing in collaboration with his mentor, Michel Allard, professor emeritus at Laval University, who has similar sensors installed at three airports in remote Nunavik communities in northern Quebec for the same purpose.

“Permafrost touches everything,” says Calmels. “It’s always been difficult to build on permafrost.”

Everything that is built upon permafrost today incorporates measures designed to minimize the impact of that layer becoming unstable. Houses built on permafrost are built above the ground to allow air to pass below them, to keep the permafrost frozen. Roads cost five times more to build and maintain on permafrost than on non-permafrost ground because they must compensate for the possible movement of the ground due to changes in the permafrost layer.

But most of that technology is based on a relatively stable climate, says Calmels, one where there is a thermal equilibrium between the infrastructure, the air temperature and the permafrost temperature.

“But if our (global) temperature is rising, then it becomes a lot more difficult.”

When the warning system is finished, the scientists hope they will be able to automatically analyze the data coming from those sensors, predict if the thawing permafrost might cause a slump that could threaten those sites, and automatically send an alarm to those who need to know about such things.

Those warnings would come at two levels, says Calmels. The first, detecting smaller movements and temperature changes in the permafrost, would warn officials that there was a likelihood of a slump occurring in the near future. The second level, a massive movement or the loss of a sensor, would indicate that a slump — or a sinkhole — had just occurred, giving officials a chance to shut down any affected roads.

Calmels’ sensors, some deployed in boreholes drilled into the permafrost, each hour measure ground temperature at various depths, air temperature, soil moisture and precipitation.

They also include inclinometers, which can be used to produce information about whether the ground is moving, how much and how fast it’s moving and about its movement relative to other layers.

His team also surveys the slump from the air, using GPS markers and a drone to track its movement.

All the data goes into a data logger, which then sends the information to a nearby substation called a gateway. In the case of the Alaska Highway slump, that gateway is at a farmer’s place about a kilometre away.

From the gateway, the information is uploaded via the internet to a central computer at Laval University in Quebec City. There, an algorithm — now in the final stages of development — analyzes the raw data and determines if there’s a danger of an upheaval occurring in the near future.

There’s evidence this system works. During the past year, Calmels put sensors directly in front of the Alaska Highway slump, and, using the data he collected, was able to predict the next portion of the slump six days before it actually happened.

Eventually, the whole system will be automated, and if the algorithm determines an alarm should be raised, it will be sent out automatically via an email distribution list to whoever needs to know.

The project, funded in part by both the federal and territorial governments, is being undertaken in collaboration with Laval University.


In Quebec, Laval’s Allard has placed similar sensors near the airports of three Nunavik communities — Salluit, Tasiujaq and Inukjuak — to keep an eye on whether any permafrost changes might lead to buckling runways.

Here, Allard is also concerned about thawing permafrost creating landslides, a similar process to the slumps in Yukon, but occurring on more of a slope.

When the permafrost layer thaws, the layer of ground on top of it, the active layer, which perennially freezes and rethaws, may be cut loose and start to slide. Scientist call that an “active layer detachment failure.”

“The idea is: how can we assess the risk that a landslide will occur in the future?” he says. “By what method can we make a warning system that will tell, for example, the mayor, the civil security organizations that, if the weather continues as it is going on now, the risk of landslides will be starting.”

Those kinds of warnings are vitally important in Quebec’s far North. There are 14 Inuit communities in Nunavik, all of which depend solely on their airports for supplies once the seasons change and ice closes off shipping access.

Once Allard and Calmels’ warning system is up and running, the three airports will have a little advance notice of changes in the permafrost that might affect airport runways. Allard says he’s already been talking with the government about expanding that warning system to the other 11 communities.

And it’s not a stretch to believe that the early warning system they’ve developed can be adapted to other, non-permafrost areas.

For example, given enough study, the network of sensors and the automated warning system could be applied to slopes in B.C., warning officials there when a mudslide or rock slide might be imminent, and sending off a widespread alarm when one has. That’s a warning that might have been useful during last week’s flooding and mudslides in southern B.C. that killed at least one person and trapped hundreds of people on its highways.

“This is not so complex, you know,” says Allard. “The key system is the data logger and the (local) communication. And those systems are widely available, and they can be deployed to anywhere in the world.

“So, if some specialist in landslides wants to send a signal, the system can be installed on their instrumentation and be put to use.”

Allard expects the automated warning system will be up and running by next summer.

Thawing permafrost isn’t just a problem for the Arctic. Here’s how it can impact the globe

By Steve McKinley

Halifax Bureau
Sat., Nov. 20, 2021

There’s a reason scientists and climate change activists have been raising the alarm about the planet’s melting permafrost for the better part of the last decade.

That’s because as climate change causes an overall rise in global average temperatures, the consequent thawing of that perpetually frozen layer of earth in the Arctic has the potentially to drastically change people’s way of life, not only in the north, but across the globe.

At the local level, thawing permafrost has impacts on the way people — and animals — hunt, fish and otherwise gather food. It has further-reaching impacts on any man-made infrastructure built on it, which has consequential effects on access between communities in a region where those communities tend to be widely dispersed.

And thawing permafrost has impacts on a global level, where the process can contribute to the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which will, in a feedback loop, further speed the increase in global average temperature, thus causing more permafrost thaw.

Permafrost, by definition, is any type of ground that stays at or below 0 C for two or more consecutive years. In Canada, most of that permafrost contains water in the form of ice.

In practice, much of the permafrost that occurs in the world — predominantly north of 60 degrees latitude — has remained frozen for thousands of years. That includes great swaths of Canada, Greenland, Siberia and Alaska.

In those regions, there is a layer of ground at the surface that repeatedly thaws and refreezes as the seasons change. Scientists call this the active layer. Usually, it ranges from 0.5 to 2 metres thick, with the thinner active layers occurring in far northern regions, while the thicker layers occur near the southern boundaries of permafrost.

Underneath that active layer lies the permanently frozen permafrost layer. In regions where the temperatures are consistently cold, such as Ellesmere Island in the High Arctic, that layer can be 700 metres thick. Further south, as in Yellowknife, it becomes only a few metres thick.

At the interface of the two layers, the permafrost tends to contain a lot of water in the form of ice. This is significant because when ice-rich permafrost begins to melt, it undermines the stability of the ground above it.

When that happens, you may get sinkholes, you may get slumps in the earth, and in the cases where the ground is sloped, you may get landslides. Or, as the scientists dub it, an “active layer detachment failure.”

To a large extent, the thawing of a permafrost layer depends on two things: temperature and precipitation.

“If you have a warm winter where the winter is not cold enough to cool off the permafrost, it’s relatively bad. If you have a hot summer, it’s not good news either,” says Fabrice Calmels, the research chair for Permafrost and Geoscience at Yukon University.

“If you have a lot of snow in winter, it means that you will have a layer that insulates the cold air from the permafrost. So, it keeps the permafrost warmer because you put a blanket on it. So, a lot of snow is not good.”

If there’s rain, says Calmels, that’s not good for the permafrost either, because the warmer water will infiltrate the soil, move through its active layer and warm the permafrost beneath.

When that happens, things on the surface become disturbed.

The change in topology may be quite dramatic.

Old Crow in the Yukon is 800 km north of Whitehorse — a three-hour flight by plane, the only way to get there.

For generations, Zelma Lake, near Old Crow, has been a focal point of hunting and fishing for the Vuntut Gwitchin First Nation.

But in 2007, that lake suddenly, catastrophically, drained — the result, in part, say scientists, of melting permafrost opening up cavities under the lake.

That’s an extreme example. There are less sensational ones that may have wide-ranging long-term consequences.

Lakes turn into grasslands or ponds. Traditional trapping trails become inaccessible. Berries and medicinal plants aren’t able to grow where they used to.

In the same area around Old Crow, says Calmels, permafrost thawing has led to changes in the forest above. And as the forest degrades, a species of lichen that’s attached to that forest becomes more rare. And that particular lichen is a favourite food of the caribou. If the rarity of the lichen becomes widespread, it potentially means the caribou change their migration paths, meaning those who hunt the caribou will have to change along with them.

In areas where humans have built infrastructure on top of permafrost, the thawing of that layer often means upheaval of the ground above. And that means roads may become impassable — even developing sinkholes — and airport runways may become unusable.

And that’s especially problematic north of 60 where remote communities depend on those roads and airports for all their supplies.

Just outside Whitehorse, Calmels is tracking a permafrost slump that is edging its way toward the Alaska Highway. If that slump were suddenly to bisect the highway, all road contact between Whitehorse and some of the Yukon’s northern communities would be lost, as well as all access to Alaska.

In northern Quebec, scientists have sensors placed at the airports of three northern communities, hoping to predict any permafrost slumps before they happen.

But the cost of a thawing permafrost can turn out to be greater and a lot more global.

Buried within that frozen layer is a huge amount of organic matter. In the last ice ages, in Siberia and parts of the Yukon and Alaska, large portions of the Arctic were not covered by the glaciers that marched steadily south. In these organically rich regions lived some of the planet’s legendary — now extinct — megafauna, the woolly mammoth and the great auk, as examples.

When the ice age receded, all that organic matter, along with huge amounts of plant biomass, were buried and remains frozen in the permafrost.

But when that organic matter is again unfrozen and exposed to air — when the permafrost surrounding it melts — nature’s organic chemical processes resume. The organic carbon is broken down by bacteria into carbon dioxide and methane.

The permafrost, once a carbon sink, now becomes a source of greenhouse gases.

And those greenhouse gases contribute to the warming of the atmospheric temperatures, meaning they will, among other things, expedite the process of thawing the permafrost.

Steve McKinley is a Halifax-based reporter for the Star. Follow him on Twitter: @smckinley1

Pilots fear collisions as staffing crisis leaves Australian Control Towers empty

Concerned crews are blowing the whistle after a surge in passenger traffic

Published: June 19, 2024

 Bloomberg

Concerns among pilots about a possible mid-air collision are spilling over in Australia as a shortage of air traffic controllers leaves airport towers unmanned, forcing passenger jets to fend for themselves.


There are currently no overnight air traffic control services at Darwin, a northern gateway for carriers including Qantas Airways Ltd. and Virgin Australia. Schedules show that at around midnight almost every day, more than a dozen flights have to arrive or depart with almost no guidance from the ground.

On Australia's northeast coast, the airport at Townsville — a popular jumping off point for the Great Barrier Reef — doesn't staff its control tower at weekends. Almost 50 commercial services have to coordinate their own landings or takeoffs on Sunday alone.

The labor crisis on the ground is adding risk in the air during the post-Covid travel boom, with flight crews taking on the task of distancing their planes from other air traffic "- a responsibility that ordinarily lies with air traffic controllers. Pilots say landing without direction from a tower removes an important layer of security at a critical period of the flight.

Concerned crews are blowing the whistle after a surge in passenger traffic. Airlines have scheduled 866 flights into Darwin this month, the most this year, up from a Covid-era low of 171 in May 2020, according to Cirium data. Runway construction work at the airport that restricts plane movements is making landing and taking off without help even more complicated, pilots say.

In a statement, the Civil Aviation Safety Authority said it's "satisfied that the arrangements between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. are safe for the anticipated traffic mix" at Darwin. The regulator said it's working with the defence department, which is responsible for air traffic control at Darwin, to "support a return to the previous service levels." The defence department didn't respond to a request for comment.

A spokesperson for Airservices Australia, the government agency that manages airspace, said "rosters are tight in some areas" but "safety is never compromised." The organization has recruited and trained 100 new air traffic controllers since 2020 and more than 70 others will join in the 2025 fiscal year, it said.

Like the rest of the aviation industry, air traffic controllers worldwide took a blow during the pandemic, with many laid off when international travel ground to a halt. Employment levels in a sector that's essential to keeping aviation safe have failed to keep pace with the swift recovery in air travel.

The depleted ranks have been in the spotlight globally after a spate of close calls on runways in the US, including a near collision at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in April between a JetBlue Airways Corp. flight and a Southwest Airlines Co. plane. In January, a fiery crash on the tarmac at Tokyo killed five people.

Safety concerns among air traffic controllers themselves in Sydney, Australia's main aviation gateway — emerged early last year when staff submitted at least 15 confidential reports to the transport safety investigator. Some warned that an accident was almost inevitable unless the manpower deficit was addressed.

As recently as last week, flight-planning notices for pilots warned that control tower operating hours at airports across Australia were subject to "post-Covid Airservices staffing shortages." The list included the airports of the nation's capital, Canberra, and Hobart, the capital city of Tasmania.

"Without air traffic control, the chance of errors by any one aircraft or pilot increases, and the ability to identify and correct those errors is dramatically reduced," said Tony Lucas, a senior Qantas pilot who's also president of the Australian and International Pilots Association. "We want to see normal operations resume as soon as possible."

In Australia, a vast country where air travel is just about unavoidable, it's common for small aerodromes or remote airstrips to operate on their own. But pilots converging on Darwin, where there's no air traffic control from 10 p.m. until 6 a.m. most nights, describe a late-night airspace busy with commercial flights, military aircraft and small medical evacuation planes.

One Boeing Co. 737 captain, a 20-year Qantas veteran, said he was relieved to land safely there in early April shortly after midnight without air traffic control. He spoke anonymously because of the sensitivity of the subject. Under those conditions, said the pilot, an accident would come as no surprise.

That same month, the Australian Airline Pilots' Association was so concerned that it issued a safety bulletin on the matter. The body warned there's a higher risk of a mid-air collision in areas of uncontrolled airspace because not all aircraft are equipped with crash-avoidance systems. The alert was distributed to professional pilot bodies worldwide.

Qantas declined to comment, but pointed to its recent submissions to an Australian parliamentary transport committee.

In a May 14 letter to the committee, Qantas said "for safety reasons" its jets avoid uncontrolled airspace unless there's no other option. Making pilots responsible for so-called self-separation in the air "was once an extremely rare event "" almost unheard of in Australian airspace and even in a global context," the airline said.

Now, it's commonplace.

Some 1,600 Qantas group flights in 2023 were delayed because normal air traffic services were unavailable, the carrier told the committee. Almost 400 flights ran late in the first four months of this year for the same reason. The airline called for "additional regulatory oversight" of Airservices Australia.

Virgin Australia declined to comment but it told the same parliamentary transport committee last month that air traffic control was withdrawn on 810 occasions between Jan. 1, 2022 and April 24, 2024. Those incidents occurred both mid-flight and as aircraft were approaching Australian airports.

At Darwin Airport, there will be no overnight service until at least November this year, according to instructions for pilots on the Airservices Australia website. The restrictions were put in place in July 2022.

The dense cluster of flight arrivals and departures at Darwin either side of midnight point to the challenges of maintaining mid-air separation. As many as 16 flights operated by Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin land or depart inside a window of about two hours, well after Darwin's control tower has closed, according to the airport's flight timetable.

The Qantas pilot who spoke anonymously said the last time he approached Darwin Airport, he received an overview of nearby flights from an area controller, allowing him to build a picture of the situation in the air. He then contacted other aircraft to ensure they were distanced "- vertically and horizontally "- and wouldn't be landing at the same time.

He touched down without incident after getting on the plane's Wifi and checking Flightradar24, a site more typically monitored by aviation enthusiasts on the ground. Many jets do not have Wifi.

It's not as if government bodies aren't aware of long-standing concerns among pilots and air traffic controllers.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau in March 2023 published an anonymous confidential submission, apparently from an air traffic controller, which highlighted a lack of understanding among controllers and flight crews about what to do in uncontrolled airspace. The situation was "an accident waiting to happen," the person said.

Three months later, the safety bureau said air traffic controllers had made "a large number" of confidential reports in the preceding four months. Fifteen of them related to operations in Sydney. There had been just one in the previous five years.

Excerpts from those submissions, published by the bureau, point to widespread concerns about staffing levels and procedures in Sydney. One controller warned it was "only a matter of time before the current practices at Airservices result in a major aviation incident." Another said it would take years to fix the labor crisis. At the time, Airservices denied there were shortages in Sydney.

Meanwhile, another Boeing 737 pilot familiar with the current restrictions at Darwin says the airport is too busy to run without full-time air traffic control. Airservices Australia has had ample time to fill holes in its workforce, the Australian airline pilot said, speaking anonymously because he isn't authorized to speak to media.

The situation at Darwin is as bad as he's known, said the pilot, who's also flown for around two decades.

Churchill port to close for two years

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Published: November 4, 2021

The sight of grain vessels being loaded at the Port of Churchill in northern Manitoba won’t happen for two years, according to Sheldon Affleck, chief executive officer of the Arctic Gateway Group. | Facebook/Arctic Gateway photo

The sight of grain vessels being loaded at the Port of Churchill in northern Manitoba won’t happen for two years, according to Sheldon Affleck, chief executive officer of the Arctic Gateway Group.

AGG consists of 29 Indigenous and a dozen non-Indigenous communities that own and operate the rail line from The Pas to Churchill and the grain terminal at Canada’s only deep-water Arctic port.

AGG morphed from the consortium led by Regina-based AGT Food and Ingredients Inc., which acquired the line and port from Omnitrax when unrepaired washouts cut rail service to Churchill for three years.

Affleck said AGG decided in April to proceed with an extensive rehabilitation of the rail line that includes laying a honeycomb-type form to help stabilize the track bed that sits on top of muskeg. Construction began in August after the federal government announced it was providing $40 million for the project, with work focussing on the stretch between Gillam and Churchill. Passenger and freight service have continued, albeit with delays due to the construction.

“It would have been very difficult to run grain trains at the same time,” he said, stressing the need for the work.

“If you don’t bite the bullet and do your permanent solutions to the track, it’s like a pot-holey road that’s always under construction and you never get anything productive done. You are damaging what you are doing while you are doing it inefficiently,” he added.

Besides the rail line, Affleck said work continued on the roof of the grain terminal to prevent water leaks. Otherwise the 92-year-old structure is sound.

 Port of Churchil

With grain shipments drastically curtailed, he said it would have been too costly to get the terminal up and running for a season until work is completed. To do so entails getting personnel in place from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, the Canadian Grain Commission, plus stevedores and acquiring the needed certifications.

“You need a fair bit of shipping to make it worthwhile to open,” Affleck said.

On top of that is the drought that deeply cut prairie crop production. The huge decrease has already meant the port won’t have a grain shipping season in 2022. Affleck said there won’t be any leftover grain from 2021 to transport.

Timing is one of drawbacks for grain shipments through Churchill, despite it being closer to a number of markets including those in Europe.

“The growing season on the Prairies doesn’t coincide with the shipping season in Churchill very well,” Affleck said. There is at best a two-week period to get a current year’s grain to the port, if everything is lined up between seller and buyer, and there are no major glitches.

Petroleum can also be shipped through Churchill using CanaPux, developed several years ago by Canadian National Railway.

“(This is) a heavy oil combined with a small amount of recycled plastic … that turns into a granular product that is not oily and floats on water,” Affleck said.

The port is already capable of handling CanaPux and the rehabilitation of the rail line will provide Churchill the opportunity to ship the product.

UK
‘Crunch time for council’ as yoga and Pilates instructors prepare to strike

Alan Jones, PA Industrial Correspondent
Fri, 16 February 2024 



Yoga, Pilates and aerobics instructors are to strike in a dispute over pay.

Members of Unison employed by Colchester City Council will walk out for seven days from Wednesday February 28 until Tuesday March 5.

Although the Leisure World and Northern Gateway Leisure Park trainers are directly employed by the council, they are not part of the same pay scheme as other staff.

Unison said the local authority has refused to increase pay for yoga and Pilates coaches of £25 per session since 2015, while aerobics instructors have been earning just £22.50.

Melinda Harrison, an aerobics instructor at the council for the past nine years, said: “Every other employee has had a pay rise, but we’ve been completely ignored. It’s like we don’t exist. We don’t get reviewed. It’s like the council has forgotten us.

“Ten years is a long time to go without a pay rise and the cost of living has shot up. It’s completely unfair to leave 

Workers at a defence agency are to be balloted for industrial action in a dispute over pay.

Members of the Prospect union at Defence Equipment & Support (DE&S), will vote in the coming weeks on whether to launch a campaign of action.

The union said the employer failed to meet its pay claim and imposed an “unagreed” offer for 2023-2024 of 3.25% or less.

Prospect is recommending that members vote yes to both strike action, and action short of strike.

The agency is responsible for managing MoD procurement across the Royal Navy, British Army and Royal Air Force, and for support programmes for the UK’s armed forces.

Its headquarters is located at the MoD’s Abbey Wood complex in Bristol.

Prospect General Secretary, Mike Clancy, said: “Our members at DE&S are committed experts dedicated to keeping our country safe in an increasingly dangerous world.

“Yet instead of recognising their invaluable work, their employer is attempting to impose another significant cut in pay, with an offer below that negotiated elsewhere in the public sector, and far below their private sector counterparts.

“Industrial action is always a last resort. It is not too late for the employer to come back to the table and make a better offer.”

A DE&S spokesperson said: “We are disappointed that Prospect have taken the decision to hold an industrial action ballot over the 2023/24 pay offer, which was implemented last September after negotiations with our recognised trades unions.

“More than half of DE&S employees received base pay increases of at least 3.25% – the figure quoted by Prospect – with some of our lowest paid employees receiving as much as 14.63% in uplifts. The overall average base pay increase across all employees in 2023/24 was 5.1%.”

MORE UCP FIREWALL ALBERTA BS
Province proposes equalization referendum question

Alberta has introduced a motion in the provincial legislature to hold a referendum on equalization with the vote happening across the province in October.

On Monday, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney introduced the motion, noting Alberta can’t unilaterally implement the outcome of the vote, rather it is intended to be a strategy to negotiate with the federal government.

On Oct. 18 Albertans will be asked: Should the section of the Constitution that commits the Government of Canada to the principle of making equalization payments be removed?

The premier said this is a concern he has heard from Albertans across the province.

"For millions of Albertans, equalization has become the most powerful symbol of the unfairness for Alberta's deal in Confederation and for good reason," Kenney said.

"This is a strategy to elevate Alberta's fight for fairness in the federation to the top of the national agenda – to get Ottawa's attention," he said.

The premier said this move is a legal tool to make a strong political and legal point to Ottawa.

Kenney campaigned in the last provincial election on holding a referendum on equalization, which he said other provinces benefit from while Alberta is financially hurt by decisions made in Ottawa and other provinces. The Fair Deal Panel put forward a referendum on equalization as a recommendation in its report.

The premier cited a litany of reasons for the strategy – the federal government “surrendering” to then-President Barrack Obama’s veto of Keystone XL, scrapping the Northern Gateway pipeline, opposing the Energy East pipeline, and allowing British Columbia to delay the Trans Mountain pipeline as just a few reasons Albertans wanted changes to the equalization program.

“One of the biggest sources of frustration, at least in my conversations with Albertans, has been the fundamental unfairness of the equalization program. While the experts and pundits often mock the very idea of trying to change equalization, Albertans do not,” Kenney said.

Most Albertans Kenney spoke with said that they don't mind helping out their fellow Canadians, but the premier said they don’t like the hostile way Alberta's oil industry is treated.

The results of the vote will have no legal impact, and changing the program will require a change to the Constitution, which would require two-thirds of the provinces voting in support.

Equalization payments are one of three federal transfer programs and the money for the program is generated through federal revenue, including GST and personal and corporate taxes.

Then the federal government transfers payments through the program to provinces whose economies are struggling. Provinces that do not have a difficult time raising revenue do not receive payments from the federal government.

The formula works by calculating what a province's revenue would be if all the tax rates were the same as the national average. Then equalization tops up provinces who are lower than the national average.

The program is intended to ensure there are no disparities across the provinces and all Canadians can enjoy similar services, regardless of which province they call home.

The vote will take place during municipal elections this fall.

Jennifer Henderson, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, St. Albert Gazette

New Mexico tribes concerned about plan to power nuclear lab
By SUSAN MONTOYA BRYAN

December 29, 2021

FILE - This undated file photo shows the Los Alamos National Laboratory in Los Alamos, N.M. New Mexico Indigenous leaders are concerned about a proposed multimillion-dollar transmission line that would cross what they consider sacred lands. The transmission line planned by the U.S. government would bring more electricity to Los Alamos National Laboratory as it looks to power ongoing operations and future missions at the northern New Mexico complex that include manufacturing key components for the nation's nuclear arsenal. (The Albuquerque Journal via AP, File)


ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. (AP) — New Mexico Indigenous leaders are concerned about a proposed multimillion-dollar transmission line that would cross what they consider sacred lands.

The transmission line planned by the U.S. government would bring more electricity to Los Alamos National Laboratory as it looks to power ongoing operations and future missions at the northern New Mexico complex that include manufacturing key components for the nation’s nuclear arsenal.

The proposed transmission line would stretch more than 12 miles (19 kilometers), crossing national forest land in an area known as the Caja del Rio and spanning the Rio Grande at White Rock Canyon. New structural towers would need to be built on both sides of the canyon.

The All Pueblo Council of Governors — which represents 20 pueblos in New Mexico and Texas — recently adopted a resolution to support the preservation of the Caja del Rio. The organization says the area has a dense concentration of petroglyphs, ancestral homes, ceremonial kivas, roads, irrigation structures and other cultural resources

The tribes say longstanding mismanagement by the federal government has resulted in desecration to sacred sites on the Caja del Rio.

The U.S. Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration announced in April that it would be working with federal land managers to assess the project’s potential environmental effects. But pueblo leaders claim there has not been adequate tribal consultation on the proposed project.

All Pueblo Council of Governors Chairman Wilfred Herrera submitted a letter to the Santa Fe National Forest on Dec. 17, requesting that forest officials comply with consultation requirements.

Herrera, a former governor of Laguna Pueblo, said preservation of the Caja Del Rio’s sacred landscape is a collective priority for the council as it works to protect ancestral homelands around the region. He said Caja del Rio is home to pueblo ancestors and spirits.

“We encourage the federal government to understand that to fully engage with the pueblos, we need your commitment and cooperation, especially during this time of year marked by transition and rest. APCG stands ready to support decision-making that protects pueblo cultural resources in perpetuity,” he said in a statement issued last week.

Federal officials have said they will try to avoid known biological, recreational, cultural and historical resources, such as El Camino Real de Tierra Adentro National Historic Trail. Another goal would be minimizing visibility of the transmission line from residential areas.

The project — which could cost up to $300 million — calls for new overhead poles with an average span of 800 feet (244 meters), access roads for construction and maintenance and staging areas where materials can be stored.

Part of the line would be built along an existing utility corridor, but a new path would have to be cut through forest land to reach an electrical substation.

Environmentalists, residents and others already have voiced concerns about potential effects, saying the area encompasses wide Indigenous landscapes and is a scenic gateway to northern New Mexico.

The area has seen an increase in outdoor recreational use and it serves as a migration corridor for wildlife.

The Los Alamos Study Group, a watchdog group that has been critical of Los Alamos lab’s expansion plans, has said the lack of an overall analysis of the cumulative effects that plutonium core production and more weapons work could have on the surrounding communities is another concern.

B.C. mining laws raise questions as province looks to implement UN declaration


VANCOUVER — The relationships between Indigenous nations and British Columbia's mining sector are set to change as the province works to match its laws with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

Mining Minister Bruce Ralston says B.C.'s "formal relations" with Indigenous nations and their participation in the sector are already a "strong asset" for companies and investors considering mineral operations in the province.

"Investors are looking for signs that things are being done right, things are being done fairly," he told a news conference earlier this month.

However, details of when and how B.C.'s mining laws may change because of the declaration aren't yet known. It's expected to take years to fully implement the act adopting its 46 different articles, which was passed in the legislature in November 2019.

In the meantime, companies must chart their own path to comply with the declaration or risk legal uncertainty, said Merle Alexander, a Vancouver-based lawyer whose work focuses on Indigenous nations and resource-based sectors including mining, forestry, oil and gas, and hydropower.

Under B.C.'s Mineral Tenure Act, for example, it costs just $1.75 per hectare to register a mineral claim through an online portal.

"I could go and just randomly choose 50 different territories to stake claims in right now and I would have never even had any engagement with any First Nation, and I'd already have an interest in their land," Alexander said.

"You get the ability to sort of literally go out there and start, like, digging holes and trenching without really any consultation whatsoever."

The UN declaration requires governments to obtain free, prior and informed consent before taking actions that affect Indigenous Peoples and territories.

"You'd be pretty hard pressed to argue that this online click of a mouse exploration mining tenure system ... is somehow compliant with a free, prior and informed consent process," said Alexander, who is a member of the Kitasoo/Xai'xais First Nation on B.C.'s north coast.

Once companies decide a mineral claim is worth exploring further they usually recognize the importance of engaging with First Nations, he said.

The Supreme Court of Canada has already established the duty to consult, meaning lawmakers must have dialogue with Indigenous governments about proposed decisions that could negatively impact their rights and title.

But Alexander likened the Crown to an absentee parent, often leaving it up to First Nations and companies to figure out consultation processes and agreements before the province approves permits for proposed projects.

"Most companies have advanced to at least realize that they have to sort of pick up the ball where the Crown has left it," he said in an interview.

"They take the delegated duty to consult and they get into the community and start fulfilling it themselves," he said, pointing to contractual solutions to legal uncertainty such as benefit agreements with First Nations.

The Crown's failure in its duty to consult affected First Nations can sink a project, said Alexander, noting that's what sent Enbridge's proposed Northern Gateway pipeline back to square one in 2016 before it was shelved permanently by the federal government later that year.

But the duty to consult leaves room for interpretation, he said, while the declaration is a statutory requirement for the province to ensure its laws align with the different articles in the UN Indigenous rights declaration.

Designed to facilitate consent-based agreements between the province and Indigenous nations whenever their rights are affected, B.C.'s act will likely lead to clearer and stronger standards around obtaining consent, he said.

It should create a path to greater certainty — one that's outside the courts — for industries, such as mining, forestry, and natural gas, he said.

B.C.'s environmental assessment process for mines and other major proposed projects is further along than the mineral tenure and exploration system for compliance with the UN declaration, Alexander noted.

But it's not in complete compliance, he said, because the 2018 Environmental Assessment Act requires that officials seek to achieve "consensus" with affected nations rather than work toward consent.

Under the act, the government is required to consider a nation's consent or lack of consent and must publish its reasoning for issuing an environmental assessment certificate for a project if a nation does not consent.

The Mining Association of B.C. issued a statement when B.C.'s declaration act was tabled in legislature, saying it was optimistic that with proper implementation, adoption of the act would "support and advance reconciliation and may lead to greater certainty on the land base."

B.C. is currently in talks with Indigenous groups about the implementation of the declaration act. The province aimed to release a plan identifying priority areas for legal reform last year, but the COVID-19 pandemic has caused some delay and it now expects to have a draft ready for feedback this spring, Indigenous Relations Minister Murray Rankin said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 28, 2021.

This story was produced with the financial assistance of the Facebook and Canadian Press News Fellowship.

Brenna Owen, The Canadian Press

Indigenous business coalition leader says Keystone XL denial will hurt communities

CALGARY — The cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline by U.S. President Joe Biden is a major setback for Canadian Indigenous people, says the leader of a group promoting their participation in oil and gas development as a solution to poverty on reserves.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

The decision means fewer jobs in the short term for Indigenous people in constructing the pipeline and supplying goods and services for it, said Dale Swampy, president of the National Coalition of Chiefs.

It also implies more long-term unemployment for those who work in exploring and developing conventional and oilsands projects in Western Canada because it impedes investment in production growth, he said.

"It's quite a blow to the First Nations that are involved right now in working with TC Energy to access employment training and contracting opportunities," said Swampy.

"Within Alberta, First Nations are pretty closely entrenched with all of the activities occurring with the oil and gas industry. Any change, especially a big change like this, really affects our bands' ability to keep our people employed."

The demise of the pipeline means Natural Law Energy, which represents five First Nations in Alberta and Saskatchewan, will no longer be able to make an equity investment of up to $1 billion in Keystone XL, a plan announced by builder TC Energy Corp. in November that was expected to be extended to American Indigenous groups as well.

But the relationship with TC Energy is expected to continue, said executive director Brian Mountain, with Natural Law making investments as a partner in other projects including renewable energy.

"We don't know how many terms Biden is going to be in for, it might be for one or two," he said, adding his group met with TC Energy executives on Friday morning to talk about next steps.

"TC Energy has been around since (the 1950s) and, more importantly, our First Nations people have been around since time immemorial. This is just another point on the timeline in our economic recovery."

He said none of the proposed projects has been confirmed as yet but said the group is confident of getting bank financing for its role.

The impact on Indigenous people goes beyond direct equity investment, Swampy said, noting that four of his five sons normally work in oil and gas but one has been unable to find a job in the current downturn.

Swampy is a former CEO of the Samson band. The coalition he heads was created in 2017 by Indigenous equity partners in the cancelled Northern Gateway pipeline and has a membership of about 80 bands.

Grand Chief Stewart Phillip, however, said the threat of global climate change is of "paramount importance" and is the reason Biden was elected president.

"I absolutely believe the writing is on the wall for the oil industry. It's going downhill," the president of the Union of B.C. Indian Chiefs said in an interview.

He suggested that Indigenous people who depend on pipeline or oil production jobs should prepare for the future by getting work in renewable energy.

"Those jobs are transient in nature ... It's a myth that pipelines represent an economic boom for a particular area," he said.

Pipeline contracts for earth-clearing help her employees at Top Notch Oilfield Contracting feed their families, countered Judy Desjarlais, a member of the Blueberry River First Nation in northeastern B.C.

She said Biden's decision is a "kick in the teeth" for Canada and its Indigenous people.

In a report published in December, energy industry labour data firm PetroLMI said about 13,800 self-identified Indigenous people were directly employed in Canada’s oil and gas industry in 2019. That's seven per cent of total industry employment, compared to three per cent in other industries.

TC Energy approved spending US$8 billion in the spring of 2020 to complete Keystone XL after the Alberta government agreed to invest about US$1.1 billion (C$1.5 billion) as equity and guaranteed a US$4.2-billion project loan.

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has said the province has about $1 billion at risk if the project were killed. Earlier this week, he called on Ottawa to demand talks with the U.S. about the pipeline and, if those prove unfruitful, to impose economic sanctions.

The 1,947-kilometre pipeline is designed to carry 830,000 barrels a day of crude oil from Hardisty, Alta., to Steele City, Neb., where it would connect with the company's existing facilities to reach the U.S. Gulf Coast refining centre.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 22, 2021.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

Dan Healing, The Canadian Press

Public support for Trans Mountain pipeline drops slightly in Alberta: poll

Public support in Alberta for the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline has waned since 2020, but a substantial majority of Albertans still support the project, a new poll from Research Co. suggests.

A pipe yard servicing government-owned oil pipeline operator Trans Mountain is seen in Kamloops, British Columbia, Canada on June 7, 2021.

Michael Rodriguez - Sunday

According to polling data, almost seven of every 10 Albertans, 69 per cent, support the federally owned pipeline project, down five percentage points from a November 2020 poll.

The federal government bought the Trans Mountain pipeline for $4.5 billion in 2018, with the cost to finish the expansion — set to increase the capacity of the pipeline from 300,000 to 890,000 barrels a day — then estimated around $7.4 billion. Since then, the project — running from Edmonton to the B.C. coast — has faced several hurdles, including legal pushback from Indigenous groups, protests that spurred multiple arrests and a skyrocketing price tag, estimated in February to be around $21.4 billion.

Calgary showed the least support in Alberta for the expansion, with 66 per cent still professing favourable views of the project. In Edmonton, 72 per cent of residents favour the project, and that number is around 70 per cent for other areas of the province.

Polling data suggests a slim majority of B.C. residents are now in favour of the expansion, 51 per cent, though that number has risen by six points since 2021. Most of the opposition comes from the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island, expressing 50 and 41 per cent support, respectively. In contrast, support from residents of other areas of the province ranges between 58 and 66 per cent.

“The proportion of British Columbians who want the provincial government to do anything necessary to ensure that the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion does not happen dropped from 41 per cent in October 2021 to 33 per cent in July 2022,” says Mario Canseco, president of Research Co. “In Alberta, 25 per cent of residents” — an increase of three per cent since 2020 — “share the same point of view.”

Most Albertans and British Columbians think the expansion will bring hundreds of jobs to their province — 78 and 71 per cent, respectively. Still, 61 per cent in Alberta and 51 per cent in B.C. are disappointed in the federal government’s handling of the project.

Around 28 per cent of Albertans believe the TMX expansion threatens the health and safety of residents, and 40 per cent of B.C. residents share that view. Less than half of residents of both provinces think the expansion will help lower gas prices — 40 per cent in Alberta and 37 per cent in B.C.

In addition, just under half of British Columbians, 46 per cent, think it’s time to take another look at the quashed Enbridge Northern Gateway proposal, which would see the construction of a new pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia’s north coast for export by sea to Asian markets.

Research Co. said its results come from an online study involving 800 adults in Alberta and 800 in B.C., conducted July 29 and 30, with the results weighted based on census data. The firm said the margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points for each province, 19 times out of 20.

mrodriguez@postmedia.com

Calgary

Energy transition will be challenging in era of public protests, regulatory hurdles

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Overhauling Canada's energy infrastructure in short

amount of time will cost hundreds of billions, experts say

Amanda Stephenson · The Canadian Press · Posted: Apr 18, 2022 10:02 AM MT | Last Updated: April 18

The federal government has laid out an ambitious roadmap to get Canada to its climate target of cutting emissions by 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and net-zero emissions by 2050. (Reuters)

From carbon capture and hydrogen development to the accelerated rollout of wind and solar power and rapid electrification of transportation systems, the federal government has laid out an ambitious roadmap to get Canada to its climate target of cutting emissions by 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, and net-zero emissions by 2050.

But overhauling this country's entire energy infrastructure in a short amount of time represents an unprecedented technical challenge that will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, experts say.

And pessimists are quick to point out that Canada doesn't have a good recent track record when it comes to getting ambitious, expensive infrastructure projects over the finish line.

In Alberta in particular — where the ghosts of cancelled pipeline projects still haunt the public consciousness — some observers believe this country has lost the political will and spirit of national unity that's required to get big things done.

"We've spent a decade making building anything extremely difficult, if not impossible," said Calgary-based energy analyst, oil services sector executive and consultant David Yager.

"Canada's recent history suggests these [net-zero] targets are aspirational, to say the least."

Troubled Canadian energy projects

Yager points to Enbridge Inc.'s proposed Northern Gateway pipeline, which was quashed by the federal Liberals in 2016.

In 2017, the proposed $15.7-billion Energy East project was cancelled by TransCanada after being bogged down by regulatory delays, new environmental criteria, and opposition to the line along major sections of the proposed route.

Then in 2021, TC Energy's proposed Keystone XL pipeline project was cancelled by U.S. president Joe Biden — the culmination of a decade-plus battle that had pitted the energy industry against environmentalists opposed to the project.

There are many other high-profile examples of troubled Canadian energy projects, from the Coastal GasLink pipeline — the construction of which led to rail blockades across the country by Indigenous opponents of the project and their supporters — to Pacific Northwest LNG, a proposed liquefied natural gas terminal in Prince Rupert, B.C., which was scrapped by Malaysia's Petronas and partners in 2017 in part because of concerns raised by local Indigenous groups about the project's impact on salmon spawning grounds in the area.

While the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is going ahead, the costs of that project have ballooned to $21.4 billion after being bought by the federal government for $4.5 billion in 2018.

Trans Mountain has been dogged by increased security costs, route changes to avoid culturally and environmentally sensitive areas, and scheduling delays related to permitting processes, among other issues.

Running into opposition

Opponents of these projects say the cancellations and delays show the need to end reliance on the fossil fuel industry and move toward greener energy production.

But it isn't just oil and gas projects that are becoming increasingly difficult to build these days, Yager said. In Ontario, wind farm projects have been cancelled because they pose threats to bat populations.

In Quebec, a proposed hydro line that would have carried clean power to Massachusetts was scrapped after residents of tiny Maine refused to allow transmission through their state.

"You can't even build a cellphone tower anymore without running into opposition," Yager said. "Where do you think you could put a new hydro dam nowadays? Nowhere."

'All of these things will have a footprint'

Experts have suggested that Canada will have to double, perhaps even triple, the size of its electricity grid by 2050 in order to meet its net-zero goals.

That would require not just new transmission infrastructure, but interprovincial co-operation on new regional interties to help connect areas with access to clean power to areas still reliant on coal.

In addition, the federal government wants to increase Canadian production of critical minerals such as copper, aluminum and lithium in order to support a domestic supply chain for the electric vehicle industry.

The prospect is daunting, said Warren Mabee, director of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Policy at Queen's University in Kingston, Ont.

"All of these things have a footprint, and are going to be a challenge to implement," he said.

Political will

Canada isn't the only jurisdiction where large-scale infrastructure projects increasingly face regulatory and social licence challenges.

It's a similar story in the U.S. and in Europe, Mabee said, adding there's a real risk that companies in the clean energy space will default to the developing world or other jurisdictions where the rules aren't as tight and the public doesn't get as much of a say in where and how things are built.

He added he believes it's possible for Canada to advance its net-zero goals, but he said the government will need to clearly communicate what the vision is — and then have the political will to enforce it.

"The level of effort that's going to be required will be comparable to the COVID-19 pandemic response," Mabee said.

The public interest

But Donna Kennedy-Glans, a former oil industry executive who served as Alberta's associate minister for electricity and renewable energy from 2013 to 2014, said she doesn't think projects carried out in the name of energy transition will come up against the same kind of hurdles that the oil and gas industry has faced in recent years.

She said while there are certainly people who oppose large-scale wind and solar farms, some of the biggest renewable energy projects in the world are blossoming across Alberta right now, and in general, the regulatory process has gone smoothly.

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"Very few people are stepping up to try to stop this ... the people who complain are being viewed as being opposed to green energy, and that's really not a comfortable space to be in," Kennedy-Glans said.

She added that she believes even the large-scale expropriation of private land for new transmission lines, for example, will face relatively little political and regulatory pushback if it's carried out in the name of climate change.

"There will be a different level of political will to see that done," Kennedy-Glans said. "I do think that people in affected communities will be upset by it ... but it's going to come down to a question of 'is this in the public interest and is it the right thing to do?'"

Singh promises to double funding, make public transit fully electric by 2030


The Canadian PressStaff
 Tuesday, September 7, 2021 

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is seen during an election campaign stop in Toronto, Tuesday, September 7, 2021. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jonathan Hayward

TORONTO -- NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is promising to double funding for public transit projects to help municipalities make their public transit fleets fully electric by 2030.

Singh said Tuesday the impacts of the climate crisis are already hurting communities across Canada with wildfires and drought. Public transit would be an investment priority for an NDP government because transportation is one of the largest sources of carbon emissions, he said.

"We know the impacts of climate change are hurting us right now," Singh said while standing outside a streetcar loop in Toronto's historic Distillery District.

He pointed to Lytton, B.C., which was burned down by a wildfire in early July, as an example of the pressing need to address climate change.

Singh said that if elected in the upcoming federal election the NDP would increase the funding given to municipalities to electrify public transit from $2.2 billion to $4.4 billion.

"Our plan is to fight this climate crisis like we really want to win it," he said.

Singh said Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau continues to break his own promises to fight climate change and Canada has become the worst emitter in the G7 under his leadership.

Trudeau's climate promises during this campaign includes plans to regulate total emissions cuts in the oil and gas sector for the first time, with a view to getting to net zero by 2050.

"That is what we are committed to, that is what we are going to do, full stop," said Trudeau on Tuesday. "Just so people are clear -- major oil industry companies have also all committed to getting to net zero by 2050. This is an inevitable part of that."

The Liberals' climate change pledges also include setting new regulations that will require half of all cars sold in Canada to be zero-emission by 2030, and 100 per cent by 2035. Trudeau also said that if his party is elected it would help workers in the energy and construction industries pivot to new fields.

Singh said, however, that Trudeau had run on a green platform when he was first elected into government in 2015 but that the Liberal party had come up short on its climate-change promises since then.

"(Trudeau) sets targets and misses them. He says he's going to end fossil-fuel subsidies, and instead of ending them he increases them," said Singh.

The Conservatives' climate plans, meanwhile, include a promise to return Canada to a goal of slashing greenhouse gas emissions to 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, rather than adopt a target recently increased by the Liberals of between 40 and 45 per cent.

The Tories are also pitching a "personal low-carbon savings account," in which consumers would see what they pay on fuel stored into an account that can be used for green purchases later, and vowing to revive the cancelled Northern Gateway pipeline project.

NDP candidate Norm di Pasquale, who is running in the Spadina-Fort York riding, said that climate change poses a real threat in downtown Toronto.

"We've had flooding of Lake Ontario, I worry about the Toronto Islands in particular," said Di Pasquale, referring to the small cluster of homes in the city's harbour. "They've had to sandbag their homes and some were actually forced to leave their homes.

"The effect on Lake Ontario is one of the more pronounced here."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 7, 2021.

Calgary·Analysis

Why Canada likely won't need any more big new oil pipelines after Trans Mountain

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With slowing oil production growth, developers would be hesitant to pitch projects

Kyle Bakx · CBC News · Posted: Mar 19, 2023 

The long saga over the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion is nearing an end as the project enters its final phase. With oil production growth slowing in western Canada, some industry experts believe this could be Canada’s last big oil pipeline project.

Construction of the Trans Mountain expansion project is set to wrap up later this year, and it's likely the last new oil export pipeline the country will ever need.

The pipeline has faced many obstacles over the years, including protests, court challenges and massive cost overruns. Last week, the cost of the federally owned project was updated to more than $30 billion.

Over the last decade, several other high-profile pipeline proposals have faltered, but the Trans Mountain expansion is more than 80 per cent built, and oil is expected to start moving in early 2024.

As oil production growth slows in Alberta, some in the industry suspect there won't be a need for any more new oil export pipelines.

"I think we'll be good," Alex Pourbaix, president and CEO of Cenovus Energy, said in an interview.

"I don't think we're going to see another large-scale liquid pipeline coming forward, certainly in the next decade."

Cenovus Energy CEO Alex Pourbaix, right, shown at the Global Energy Show in Calgary in June 2022, says there is less need for new oil pipelines as production growth slows. (Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press)

Protests, political battles, court challenges

When the Trans Mountain expansion was first pitched more than a decade ago, the proposal seemed relatively straightforward, since the project would twin an existing pipeline largely along the same route. In addition, the pipeline wouldn't cross multiple borders, running from Alberta to British Columbia.

For the first few years after the project was announced in 2012, it received very little attention — especially as the spotlight was on other pipeline proposals, such as Northern Gateway, Energy East and Keystone XL.

Protesters opposed to the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project arrive at a park just below a construction site in Burnaby, B.C., in March 2021. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)

Still, as those projects faltered and the Trans Mountain expansion neared construction, the scrutiny quickly followed.

There were protests from Indigenous communities and environmental advocates; political battles between Alberta and B.C.; regulator and court challenges; and many other obstacles that caused more delays, uncertainty and expenses.

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The Trans Mountain project was bought by the federal government for $4.5 billion in 2018, after previous owner Kinder Morgan Canada Ltd. — which was acquired by Pembina Pipeline Corp. in December 2019 — threatened to scrap the pipeline's planned expansion project in the face of environmental opposition, legal challenges and political risk.

The cost of the project has escalated over the years because of several factors, including global inflation and supply chain challenges, severe floods in British Columbia, route changes, challenging terrain and security expenses.

Pipelines close to capacity

Despite all of the problems, experts say the economic case for the pipeline remains, since it will allow Canadian oil to reach the coast and fetch a better price than shipping it to the United States, where the majority of Canadian oil flows.

The industry also needs another export channel, since existing pipelines are running out of space.

"We're pretty close," said, Kevin Birn, a vice-president with S&P Global Commodity Insights in Calgary, who expects the Trans Mountain expansion to be full of oil when it's up and running.

A worker looks on as construction continues on the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project in Burnaby, B.C., in March 2021. The project was purchased by the federal government for $4.5 billion in 2018, in the face of environmental opposition, legal challenges and political risk. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)

"Overall, through the back end of this decade, we see the entire western Canadian system — even including some expansions and optimizations that haven't happened — running north of 90 per cent utilization. And that's well into the 2030s with the completion of TMX."

Birn said he also doubts that the country will see the construction of any more large oil pipelines — not only because there won't be enough oil production to justify the need, but because all of the problems with the Trans Mountain expansion would make a pipeline developer cautious and hesitant to build a big project in Canada.

Meanwhile, for the main opponents of Trans Mountain, there is some solace, considering how much has changed in Canada over the last decade in terms of natural resources development, environmental policy and Indigenous rights.

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"They kind of lost the battle but won the war," said George Hoberg, a professor at the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver.

He documented the pipeline and several other projects in his book The Resistance Dilemma: Place-Based Movements and the Climate Crisis.

The federal government was able to leverage its support for Trans Mountain to get Alberta to join the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change, Hoberg said, while Indigenous groups have gained more rights after Ottawa adopted the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples.

Construction on the Trans Mountain expansion project is shown near Hope, B.C., in October 2021. The existing pipeline, which runs for 1,150 kilometres, carries 300,000 barrels of oil per day. The expansion will raise the daily output to 890,000 barrels. (Jonathan Hayward/The Canadian Press)

Even without new oil export pipelines proposed again in the country, experts say there will still be conflict over the continued operation of existing oil infrastructure, as well as the development of new natural gas, carbon dioxide and hydrogen pipelines. The construction of new electricity transmission lines will cause similar controversy, Hoberg said.

"They are pipelines for electrons, and they have the same features as a pipeline in the sense that they are long, linear infrastructure," he said.

Ownership comes next

As construction of the Trans Mountain expansion nears the finish line, the focus will soon turn to the project's ownership. The federal Liberal government has said it would sell the pipeline but only after it's certain the project will be completed.

For a few years, some Indigenous-led groups have been preparing to make bids.

"TMX is very polarizing because of the protection of the environment," Stephen Buffalo, president and CEO of the Indian Resource Council, said, noting the risk of a spill.

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If Indigenous groups have an ownership stake in the project, there is more accountability and involvement by local communities to ensure environmental protection, he said.

The existing Trans Mountain pipeline, which runs for 1,150 kilometres, carries 300,000 barrels of oil per day and is the only pipeline system transporting oil from Alberta to the West Coast.

The expansion will raise the daily output to 890,000 barrels.