Rosa Luxemburg Was the Great Theorist of Democratic Revolution

The latest volume of her Complete Works provides a unique perspective on her political thought

AUTHOR
Peter Hudis



Generations of socialist thinkers and activists have grappled with the life and thought of Rosa Luxemburg. Yet there are many surprises still in store for those interested in her legacy, as seen in the recent publication of Volume Four of the English-language Complete Works. Along with the previously published Volume Three, the new collection brings together her writings on the 1905 Russian Revolution, one of the most important social upheavals of modern times.

Peter Hudis is Professor of Philosophy and Humanities at Oakton Community College and the General Editor of the Complete Works of Rosa Luxemburg.

This article first appeared in Jacobin.

Luxemburg’s analysis of 1905 in her pamphlet The Mass Strike, the Political Party, and the Trade Unions is already well-known (and appears in Volume Four in a new translation). However, more than four-fifths of the material in the new volume, covering the period from 1906 to 1909, is appearing in English for the first time. Most of her writings that were originally composed in Polish — about half of the volume’s 550 pages — have never appeared in any other language.

Learning to Speak Russian

Luxemburg, like most Marxists of her generation (as well as Karl Marx himself) held that a democratic republic with universal suffrage was the formation best suited for waging the class struggle to a successful conclusion. Like many of her contemporaries in the Second International, she saw no contradiction between fighting for democratic reforms within capitalism while reaching for a revolutionary transformation that would abolish capitalism — even as she relentlessly battled those who separated the two.

In doing so, Luxemburg distinguished between forms of struggle employed in “peaceful” as against those used in revolutionary periods. The aim in both scenarios was to enhance the consciousness and power of the working class. However, “in peacetime, this struggle takes place within the framework of the rule of the bourgeoisie”, which required that the movement operate “within the bounds of the existing laws governing elections, assemblies, the press”, trade unions, etc.

Luxemburg referred to this as “a sort of iron cage in which the class struggle of the proletariat must take place”. Hence, mass struggles in such periods “only very seldom attain positive results”. A revolutionary phase was very different, she argued:

Times of revolution rend the cage of “legality” open like pent-up steam splitting its kettle, letting class struggle break out into the open, naked and unencumbered ... the consciousness and political power [of the proletariat] emerge during revolution without having been warped by, tied down to, and overpowered by the “laws” of bourgeois society.

For Luxemburg, the activity and reason of the masses during the 1905 Revolution, in which millions engaged in mass strikes aimed at bringing down the tsarist regime, was a clear example of such a moment. As she wrote in early 1906: “With the Russian Revolution, the almost-sixty-year period of quiet parliamentary rule of the bourgeoisie comes to a close.” The time had come for the socialist movement in Western Europe to begin to “speak Russian” by incorporating the mass strike into its political and organizational perspectives:

Social Democratic tactics, as employed by the working class in Germany today and to which we owe our victories up until now, is oriented primarily toward parliamentary struggle, it is designed for the context of bourgeois parliamentarianism. Russian Social Democracy is the first to whom the hard but honourable lot has fallen of using the foundations of Marx’s teaching, not in a time of the correct, calm parliamentary course of state life, but in a tumultuous revolutionary period.
Immediate Tasks

In the years since Luxemburg penned these words, numerous commentators have praised her efforts to push the rather staid social democratic parties in a more revolutionary direction, while others have criticized Luxemburg’s perspective on the grounds that it downplays the stark differences between the absolutist regime in Russia and Western liberal democracies. There are several points worth noting in this context.

Firstly, Luxemburg held that the mass strike “is and will remain a powerful weapon of workers’ struggle”, but went on to stress that it was “only that, a weapon, whose use and effectiveness always depend on the environment, the given conditions, and the moment of struggle”. Secondly, she held that the Russian proletariat was “not setting itself utopian or unreachable goals, like the immediate realization of socialism: the only possible and historically necessary goal is to establish a democratic republic and an eight-hour workday”.

In Luxemburg’s view, socialism could not be on the immediate agenda in Russia for two main reasons: the working class at the time constituted only a small minority of the populace of the Russian Empire (less than 15 percent), and it was impossible for socialism to exist in a single country:

The socialist revolution can only be a result of international revolution, and the results that the proletariat in Russia will be able to achieve in the current revolution will depend, to say nothing of the level of social development in Russia, on the level and form of development that class relations and proletarian operations in other capitalist countries will have achieved by that time.

In a lengthy essay addressed to the Polish workers’ movement, she further developed this point:

In its current state, the working class is not yet ready to accomplish the great tasks that await it. The working class of all capitalist countries must first internalize the aspiration to socialism; an enormous number of people have yet to arrive at an awareness of their class interests ... When Social Democracy has a majority of the working people behind it in all the largest capitalist countries, the final hour of capitalism will have struck.

A Workers’ Revolution

However, this did not mean that the Russian Revolution would be confined to a liberal or bourgeois framework. Much like Vladimir Lenin’s Bolshevik current — and in direct opposition to their Menshevik rivals — Luxemburg held that the immediate task facing revolutionaries in the Russian Empire was the formation of a democratic republic under the control of the working class. Since the liberal bourgeoise was too weak and compromised to lead the revolution, “the proletariat had to become the only fighter and defender of the democratic forms of a bourgeois state”.

She stressed that conditions in Russia today were not like those existing in nineteenth-century France:

The Russian proletariat fights first for bourgeois freedom, for universal suffrage, the republic, the law of associations, freedom of the press, etc., but it does not fight with the illusions that filled the [French] proletariat of 1848. It fights for [such] liberties in order to instrumentalize them as a weapon against the bourgeoisie.

She further expanded on this point elsewhere:

The bourgeois revolution in Russia and Poland is not the work of the bourgeoisie, as in Germany and France in days gone by, but the working class, and a class already highly conscious of its labour interests at that — a working class that seeks political freedoms not so that the bourgeoisie may benefit, but just the opposite, so that the working class may resolve its class struggle with the bourgeoisie and thereby hasten the victory of socialism. That is why the current revolution is simultaneously a workers’ revolution. That is also why, in this revolution, the battle against absolutism goes hand in hand — must go hand in hand — with the battle against capital, with exploitation. And why economic strikes are in fact quite nearly inseparable in this revolution from political strikes.

Luxemburg consistently upheld the need for majority support from the exploited masses in achieving any transition to socialism, including those pertaining to freedom struggles in the technologically developed capitalist lands. As she later wrote in December 1918, on behalf of the group she led during the German Revolution: “The Spartacus League will never take over governmental power except in response to the clear, unambiguous will of the great majority of the proletarian mass of all of Germany, never except by the proletariat’s conscious affirmation of the views, aims, and methods of struggle of the Spartacus League.”

One Step Forward

Luxemburg’s perspective on the 1905 Russian Revolution raises a host of questions, which relate to the problems faced by revolutionary regimes in the non-Western world in the decades following her death. How can the working class maintain power in a democratic republic after the overthrow of the old regime if it represents only a minority of the populace? How can it do so if, as she claims, “Social Democracy finds only the autonomous class politics of the proletariat to be reliable” — since the hunger of the peasants for landed private property presumably puts them at odds with it? And how is it possible for such a democratic republic under the control of the proletariat to be sustained if revolutions do not occur in other countries that can come to its aid?

Luxemburg addressed these questions in a remarkable essay written in Polish in 1908, “Lessons of the Three Dumas,” which has never previously appeared in English. By 1908, the situation in Russia had radically changed since the revolution was by then defeated. She surveyed the course of its development, encouraging Marxists to “redouble their commitment to subjecting every detail of their tactics to rigorous self-criticism.” She did so by evaluating the history of the three Dumas — the parliamentary bodies established in the Russian Empire from 1906 as a concession to the revolution, with a restricted franchise that became progressively more biased in favour of the upper classes:

The Third Duma has shown — and from this flow its enormous political significance — that a parliamentary system that has not first overthrown the government, that has not achieved political power through revolution, not only cannot defeat the old power (a belief the First Duma vainly held), not only cannot hold its own against that power as an instrument of opposition (as the Second Duma tried to do), but can and must become, on the contrary, an instrument of the counterrevolution.

She proceeded to look ahead in thinking about the possible fate of a future revolution that, unlike the one in 1905, did succeed in overthrowing the old regime:

If the revolutionary proletariat in Russia were to gain political power, however temporarily, that would provide enormous encouragement to the international class struggle. That is why the working class in Poland and in Russia can and must strive to seize power with full consciousness. Because once workers have power, they can not only carry out the tasks of the current revolution directly — realizing political freedom across the Russian state — but also establish the eight-hour workday, upend agrarian relations, and in a word, materialize every aspect of their program, delivering the heaviest blows they can to bourgeois rule and in this way hastening its international overthrow.

Revolutionary Realism

Yet the question remained: How could the workers maintain themselves in power in a democratic republic over the long haul if they constituted a minority of the populace? Luxemburg’s answer was that they could not — and yet the effort would still be worth it:

The revolution’s bourgeois character finds expression in the inability of the proletariat to stay in power, in the inevitable removal of the proletariat from power by a counterrevolutionary operation of the bourgeoisie, the rural landowners, the petty bourgeoisie, and the greater part of the peasantry. It may be that in the end, after the proletariat is overthrown, the republic will disappear and be followed by the long rule of a highly restrained constitutional monarchy. It may very well be. But the relations of classes in Russia are now such that the path to even a moderate monarchical constitution leads through revolutionary action and the dictatorship of a republican proletariat.

Shortly before writing this, in an address to a Congress of the Russian Social Democratic Labour Party, she made the following remarks:

I find that it is a poor leader and a pitiful army that only goes into battle when victory is already in the bag. To the contrary, not only do I not mean to promise the Russian proletariat a sequence of certain victories; I think, rather, that if the working class, being faithful to its historical duty, continues to grow and execute its tactics of struggle consistent with the unfolding contradictions and the ever-broader horizons of the revolution, then it could wind up in quite complicated and difficult circumstances ... But I think that the Russian proletariat must have the courage and resolve to face everything prepared for it by historical developments, that it should, if it has to, even at the cost of sacrifices, play the role of the vanguard in this revolution in relation to the global army of the proletariat, the vanguard that discloses new contradictions, new tasks, and new paths for class struggle, as the French proletariat did in the nineteenth century.

She did not shy away from acknowledging the implications of this argument:

Revolution in this conception would bring the proletariat losses as well as victories. Yet by no other road can the entire international proletariat march to its final victory. We must propose the socialist revolution not as a sudden leap, finished in twenty-four hours, but as a historical period, perhaps long, of turbulent class struggle, with breaks both brief and extended.

This was a remarkable expression of revolutionary realism. Luxemburg was fully aware that even a democratic republic under the control of the working class — which is how she as well as Marx understood “the dictatorship of the proletariat” — was bound to be forced from power in the absence of an international revolution, especially in a country where the working class constituted a minority. And yet, even though the revolution would therefore have “failed” from at least one point of view, it would have produced important social transformations, providing the intellectual sediment from which a future uprooting of capitalism could arise.

In short, Luxemburg did not think that it made sense to sacrifice democracy for the sake of staying in power, since the political form required to achieve the transition to socialism was “thoroughgoing democracy”. If a nondemocratic regime stayed in power, the transition to socialism would become impossible, since the working class would be left without the means and training to exercise power on its own behalf. Yet on the other hand, if a proletarian democracy existed even for a brief period of time, it could help inspire a later transition to socialism.

Self-Examination

This argument speaks to what would unfold a decade later, when tsarism was finally overthrown in the February 1917 Revolution, followed in short order by the Bolshevik seizure of power in October of the same year. Lenin and the Bolsheviks were fully aware at the time that the material conditions did not permit the immediate creation of a socialist society, even as they proclaimed the establishment of the dictatorship of the proletariat. This was why Lenin worked so hard to foster proletarian revolutions in Western Europe.

However, two fundamental issues separated Lenin’s approach from that of Luxemburg. Firstly, his regime did not take the form of a democratic republic, as seen in its suppression of political liberties — a development that Luxemburg sharply opposed in her 1918 critique of the Russian Revolution. Secondly, Lenin held that once the Bolsheviks seized power, they intended to keep it — permanently. This was very different from Luxemburg’s statement that “the inability of the proletariat to stay in power” would not be the worst outcome, so long as the vision of liberation projected to the world through its creation of a democratic society based on the rule of the working class inspired others to take up the fight against capitalism.

Luxemburg’s position is especially striking because she was fully aware that the bourgeoisie would always resort to violent suppression in the aftermath of a defeated revolution. Indeed, she lost her own life following the defeat of the January 1919 Spartacus League uprising in Berlin, which she initially opposed on the grounds that it lacked sufficient mass support. However, Luxemburg was equally aware that any effort to forge a transition to socialism through nondemocratic means was doomed to fail. In this sense, she anticipated the tragic outcome of many revolutions in the decades following her death.

Whatever one makes of Luxemburg’s reflection on these issues, one thing is clear: she developed a distinctive, though rarely discussed, conception of the transition to socialism (especially for developing societies, which is what the Russian Empire was at the time) that has received far too little attention. The publication of these writings in English will hopefully remedy that neglect.

Although many of Luxemburg’s ideas speak to issues that democratic socialists, anti-imperialists, and feminists are grappling with today, on at least one critical issue, her perspective has not stood the test of time. It is to be found in her oft-repeated insistence: “When the sale of workers’ labour to private exploiters is abolished, the source of all today’s social inequalities will disappear.”

Luxemburg’s contention that the abolition of private ownership of the means of production would provide the basis for ending “every inequality in human society” was not hers alone. Virtually every tendency and theorist of revolutionary social democracy in the Second International shared it, including Lenin, Karl Kautsky, Leon Trotsky, and many others. Yet it is hardly possible to maintain this view today.

Neither the social-democratic welfare states, which sought to limit private property rights, nor the regimes in the USSR, China, and elsewhere in the developing world, which abolished them through the nationalization of property, succeeded in developing a viable alternative to the capitalist mode of production. A much deeper social transformation that targets not alone private property and “free” markets but most of all the alienated form of human relations that define capitalist modernity is clearly needed.

That is a task for our generation, which can be much aided by returning with new eyes to the humanist implications of Marx’s critique of the logic of capital. This entails a critical re-evaluation of the meaning of socialism that may not have been on the agenda in Luxemburg’s time, but which the overall spirit of her work surely encourages. As she wrote in 1906:

Self-examination — that is, making oneself aware at every step of the direction, logic, and basis for the class movement itself — is that store from which the working mass draws its strength, again and again, to struggle anew, and by which it understands its own hesitation and defeats as so many proofs of its strength and inevitable future victory.

MONARCHIST JUNTA

Thailand’s Populist Pheu Thai Party Finally Won the Prime Minister Vote—But at What Cost?

Koh Ewe
Tue, August 22, 2023 

Srettha Thavisin speaks to media as he arrives at Pheu Thai's headquarters in Bangkok on August 22, 2023. Credit - Lauren DeCicca—Getty Images

Concluding months of uncertainty, Thailand is finally getting a new prime minister: 60-year-old Srettha Thavisin was backed by votes from 482 out of 747 lawmakers in parliament on Tuesday after his party Pheu Thai cobbled together a controversial coalition to form a new government.

Srettha—a Bangkok-based real estate tycoon who, standing at six-foot-three-inches, is nicknamed Nid (“little” in Thai)—is a relative newcomer to politics, holding strong support from businesses and known to be a vocal supporter of queer rights and environmental sustainability. (He is also facing allegations of tax evasion—which some lawmakers brought up at the parliamentary debate on Tuesday.)

But Srettha’s ascent marks less the start of a new era for Thai politics and more a last grasp at power by both the populist Pheu Thai party and the conservative establishment. When the country held its general election in May, the progressive, pro-democracy Move Forward Party came out on top, promising to turn the page from the military- and monarchy-aligned rule of the last decade. Initially, Pheu Thai, which finished second at the polls and had also opposed the military establishment that ousted its elected former leaders twice in coups, announced an alliance with Move Forward. However, when it eventually became clear that the establishment would block Move Forward from taking charge, Pheu Thai abandoned the alliance and joined forces with the military-aligned parties it had once forsworn.

“We will translate disagreements into consensus,” Pheu Thai wrote in a post on X, the platform previously known as Twitter, on Tuesday evening when it became clear that Srettha would become the country’s next Prime Minister.

That won’t be easy though, experts warn. Pheu Thai is set to take the helm of a precarious coalition government of former enemies, betraying much of its own base as well as earning the ire of a large and growing progressive movement. Here’s what to know about how Pheu Thai got to this point—and what it will have to grapple with going forward.

Moving forward without Move Forward

Going into May’s election, Pheu Thai was widely expected to perform best. Public dissatisfaction with the country’s tumultuous military-backed rule was clear, and Pheu Thai had long occupied the most prominent opposition role. Srettha was one of the party’s three prime ministerial candidates, which also included Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of former Prime Minister and de facto founder of Pheu Thai Thaksin Shinawatra, who returned from exile on Tuesday.

But the upstart Move Forward Party—led by the young and charismatic Pita Limjaroenrat and most known for its calls to amend Section 112, the controversial lese-majeste law wielded against pro-democracy activists—ended up getting even more votes. Pheu Thai did not back Move Forward’s royal defamation reform plan, but it partnered with the election winners anyway, united in their common promise to end the incumbent military-backed rule.

After Pita was blocked from becoming Prime Minister last month, Move Forward announced that it would support a Pheu Thai-led coalition, emphasizing that its goal was to “form a government of the democracy side.” But it had become clear that the royalist establishment forces that stood in Pita’s way would not permit any new government with Move Forward involved. By early August, Pheu Thai announced it would seek a new coalition without Move Forward.

The next few weeks saw Pheu Thai welcome coalition partners from across the spectrum, including some of the explicitly military-aligned parties it had previously campaigned against. As a result, Move Forward declined to back the Pheu Thai-led coalition, saying that it “distorts the will of the people in the elections.”

Pheu Thai’s break with Move Forward may have enabled Srettha to win the necessary votes on Tuesday, but it will have serious long-term implications, experts warn. “Perhaps most critical in this post-election melodrama is the damage that has been done to Pheu Thai in its relationship with Move Forward,” Mark S. Cogan, an associate professor of peace and conflict studies at Japan’s Kansai Gaidai University, tells TIME. “It’s clear now that Pheu Thai is thinking too much in the short term, while the more idealistic Move Forward is thinking about the long-term health of a more progressive movement.”

While Pheu Thai has said that it will continue to push for some of the policies outlined in its initial memorandum of understanding with Move Forward—including marriage equality and reforms to the police, military, and judiciary—its new 11-party coalition was built on the condition that there will be no amendments to the lese-majeste law and no involvement of Move Forward. Meanwhile, Move Forward, now forced into an opposition role despite its popularity in the polls, is poised to win even more public support, especially among Pheu Thai voters disappointed in their party’s new choice of partners.

“[Pheu Thai’s] collaboration with parties aligned with the military effectively closes the door on potential future cooperation with Move Forward in a pro-democracy coalition,” Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, tells TIME. “The party’s standing has been tarnished in the eyes of liberal and pro-democracy voters.”

A shaky ‘government of reconciliation’

If Pheu Thai’s broken alliance with Move Forward was a sharp disappointment for pro-democracy voters, the party’s unlikely partnership with its former military-backed rivals is a slap in the face for its diehard “Red Shirt” supporters, for whom the memories of deadly protests against the military elite in the 2000s remains fresh.

Srettha himself said ahead of the election months ago that he would decline the top post if it meant Pheu Thai had to form a coalition with outgoing Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha or Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon, two figures who represent the military’s stranglehold in Thai politics. “The idea of me working with them in the same government, sitting in the same cabinet,” he told VOA in May, “I can’t see myself doing that.” This week, he argued the political maneuver to partner with both of their parties was necessary to implement Pheu Thai’s promised policies.

“On the one hand, given the less-than-democratic system that produced this outcome, it is a pragmatic approach to salvaging a semi-democratic government that won’t have all of the key line ministries controlled by conservatives,” says Cogan.

“On the other hand, Pheu Thai must know that is gambling with its future, as the most loyal of the Red Shirt movement will disavow a party leadership that made friends with the devil.”

What Pheu Thai is calling a “government of reconciliation” has been met with dismal public support, with 64.5% of respondents in a public poll disagreeing with such a coalition government.

Adding to the tensions is the sensational return of former Prime Minister Thaksin, who was greeted by emotional Red Shirt supporters when he touched down in Bangkok on Tuesday morning, just hours before the Prime Minister vote, having spent over a decade in self-exile after he was ousted in a 2006 coup and fled the country in 2008 to avoid jail for corruption. The 74-year-old was taken to prison on Tuesday to serve his eight-year sentence, though it’s believed that Pheu Thai struck a deal to guarantee his early release.

“By aligning itself with parties connected to the military and the conservative establishment, Pheu Thai has sacrificed whatever remains of its credibility as a party championing liberal and pro-democratic values in opposition to military rule,” says Napon, adding that the coalition has also left Pheu Thai “considerably constrained in its capacity to fulfill campaign promises and shape future government policies.”

It remains to be seen just how well a government made up of members with vastly different—often conflicting—interests can run, Napon explains. “If effectiveness is measured in terms of the ability to fulfill campaign promises and implement policies, I believe that the new Pheu Thai-led coalition will not be very effective. Its policy priorities will be compromised by the need to maintain a shaky alliance involving other parties that make pressing demands in return for propping up the coalition.”

According to an announcement by the coalition on Monday, Pheu Thai is set to have eight ministers—including the Prime Minister—and nine deputy ministers. Bhumjaithai, the conservative party known for legalizing cannabis and the May election’s third-highest vote-getter, will have four ministers and four deputy ministers. Meanwhile, the military-aligned United Thai Nation and Palang Pracharath will each have two ministers and two deputy ministers.

The devil’s bargain that Pheu Thai made to secure its place in a majority government, Napon says, appears to have set the party up to fail. “Pheu Thai’s move amounted to a betrayal of the mandate of its supporters,” he says. “Any mismanagement or backlash from the public will likely be attributed to Pheu Thai, leaving it in a vulnerable position.”

Protests against the new government seem inevitable. Already, over the past few weeks, pro-democracy activists and Red Shirts held demonstrations begging—unsuccessfully—that Pheu Thai not betray them by teaming up with their former political foes.

Meanwhile, despite being relegated to the opposition after its election victory, not all is lost for Move Forward or the progressive movement. It’s only a matter of time, experts say, before the young, ambitious party, which has set itself apart with its unwavering commitment to its principles, returns even stronger to contest the country’s leadership again. Says Cogan, “It’s very likely that if and when Thailand holds another election, Move Forward will likely gain where Pheu Thai lost. While that means those that voted for Move Forward lose out in the short-term, they will ultimately gain.”

Exiled Former Thai Leader Thaksin Shinawatra Trades Democratic Progress for Return Home

Charlie Campbell
Mon, August 21, 2023 

Thaksin Shinawatra arrives at Don Mueang International Airport in Bangkok on August 22, 2023. Credit - Sirachai Arunrugstichai—Getty Images

For more than 15 years, one man’s shadow has loomed over Thailand from afar. Billionaire former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra may have lived in exile following his ouster in a 2006 coup d’état and subsequent corruption convictions, but the levers of power were never far from his grasp. Populist parties he backed had won every election since 2001 only to be repeatedly ousted by judicial and military coups—turmoil interspersed by bouts of often deadly street protests.

But Thaksin’s grip loosened following May’s general election, when his Pheu Thai party was bested by the upstart Move Forward Party, which secured 38% of the vote with its radical agenda to bridle the nation’s military and monarchy. Pheu Thai briefly allied with Move Forward, but after the coalition’s candidate for Prime Minister was rejected by the military-appointed Senate, the Thaksin proxy instead struck a deal with 10 establishment-leaning parties, including two directly responsible for his sister’s ouster in 2014.

At 9:25 a.m. on Tuesday, Thaksin returned to Thailand for the first time since 2008, arriving at Bangkok’s Don Mueang Airport wearing a navy blue suit and pink necktie. Posting on social media platform X, formerly Twitter, before his arrival, Thaksin said he wanted to “live on the land of Thailand and share the air with my Thai brothers and sisters.” He landed just hours before a scheduled parliamentary vote that looks likely to return a Pheu Thai candidate, property tycoon Srettha Thavisin, as Prime Minister. Pheu Thai insists that the timing of his return has nothing to do with the vote but was determined as auspicious according to astrological charts.

The truth is far less lofty. After two decades of battling the Thai establishment, urging fervent supporters onto the street and into often deadly confrontation with rivals and security forces, Thaksin has abandoned them to secure his return home. He was arrested after stepping off his private Gulfstream jet and transported to the Supreme Court and then to Bangkok Remand Prison, though nobody expects him to serve anything like the eight years that three of his in absentia convictions warrant. Rumors of a royal pardon continue to swirl.

That Thaksin did a deal with Thailand’s elite power nexus that effectively keeps the democratically elected Move Forward Party out of power has incensed many of his erstwhile supporters. While a raucous crowd of thousands greeted Thaksin at the terminal, social media is filled with outpourings of scorned former acolytes, some of whom have burned Pheu Thai shirts and banners in protest. Memories are seared deep of numerous bloody encounters with Thaksin’s new coalition bedfellows—not least the at least 90 Thaksin supporters killed in 2010 following a police crackdown on a protest in central Bangkok.

“Pheu Thai will pay a heavy price,” says ​​Aim Sinpeng, a senior lecturer at the University of Sydney. “Because their stance for decades is that they're not going to be with the old elites, and now they are.”

It’s a cynical marriage of convenience between two camps that remain sworn enemies. But in Move Forward, the Thai elite found itself facing something far scarier than a brash, ambitious tycoon. If Thaksin tried to co-opt existing institutions for his own ends, Move Forward sought to upend them altogether, vowing to abolish Thailand’s controversial royal defamation law, military conscription, and its unelected Senate.

The resounding victory for Move Forward’s bold manifesto spooked the elites into doing a deal with their archnemesis. Thaksin, for his part, saw that his popularity would only wane further before the next election and, with Pheu Thai desperately running out of funds, it was essentially now or never. “It’s his last chance with Pheu Thai in shambles and his own credibility damaged,” says Napon Jatusripitak, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. “But his reputation as a pro-democracy figure has crumbled.”

It’s certainly a dark day for Thailand’s democracy movement, which was dancing in the street following Move Forward’s stunning victory. Since then, however, party leader Pita Limjaroenrat has been barred from serving as a lawmaker over allegations that he held shares in a defunct media company, contravening byzantine parliamentary rules. (He denies any wrongdoing). There are fears that he will be barred from politics and the party dissolved, just like its progenitor Future Forward Party, and various former iterations of Pheu Thai before.

At the very least, the hope is that the selection of a Prime Minister after three months of political limbo can get the country of 70 million back on track. GDP growth in Thailand slowed to just 0.2% in the second quarter of 2023, down from 1.7% in the previous. The tourism-reliant economy desperately needs stability and leadership.

As for democracy, thanks to Thaksin, the wait goes on.

“We're sick and tired of these shenanigans,” says Thitinan Pongsudhirak, professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. “We want to have a democratically elected government moving the country forward. And Thaksin now is an obstacle.”

Thaksin Shinawatra: Former Thailand PM jailed after return from exile

Jonathan Head - BBC News, Bangkok
Tue, August 22, 2023 

Thailand's former PM Thaksin Shinawatra has been jailed upon returning to the country after 15 years in exile.

But many believe he has struck a deal that will keep him from serving more than a short period in prison.

He arrived in Bangkok on Tuesday morning in a private jet, hours before his Pheu Thai party's candidate Srettha Thavisin was voted the next Thai PM.

This cements Pheu Thai's coalition with its former military rivals who deposed the party in 2014 in a coup.

Mr Thaksin, Thailand's most successful elected leader, has long been feared by conservative royalists, who have backed military coups and contentious court cases to weaken him. He went into self-imposed exile in 2009 after being deposed by a coup two years earlier.

While he made no secret of his yearning to be back in Thailand, what kept him away so long was the various criminal cases hanging over him. But now the brash, politically ambitious telecoms tycoon is back - and was almost immediately sentenced to eight years' jail on criminal convictions he says are politically motivated.

He arrived to cheers from hundreds of loyal "red shirt" supporters who had gathered overnight to see him, but he never greeted most of them.

Samniang Kongpolparn, 63, was among those who had travelled from Surin province in the northeast, the stronghold of Mr Thaksin's party in past decades.

"He's the best prime minister we've ever had. Even though I won't get to see him today, I still wanted to come to show him support," she said. "I'm ok with them reconciling with the pro-military government, or else we're stuck with the senators. We don't want that."

Who is Thaksin Shinawatra?

Flanked by his two daughters and son, Mr Thaksin emerged briefly from the airport terminal and paid his respects to a portrait of the king and queen. The 74-year-old was then taken to the Supreme Court where he was sentenced and then to Bangkok Remand Prison.

It has been speculated that Thaksin will seek a royal pardon, and prison authorities on Tuesday said he would be able to submit a petition from jail immediately. The process can take one to two months.

Prison authorities there say he will be kept in a wing with specific medical equipment, given his advanced age. He will also immediately undergo a 10-day quarantine - the first five days of which he will be confined to his room, authorities said.

Mr Thaksin greets supporters after arriving in Bangkok

Thaksin's political party in the front seat

Mr Srettha's win on Tuesday is the result of a byzantine process which in three months has taken Thailand full circle.

It began with the heady hopes of a new dawn led by the radical young Move Forward party, which won the most seats in the May election.

Move Forward initially formed a partnership with Pheu Thai but the coalition now includes almost everyone but the reformers, including two parties led by former coup-makers - a deal with its sworn enemies that Pheu Thai vowed it would not do.

Pheu Thai insists the two developments - Mr Thaksin's return and the coalition that voted for a Pheu Thai PM - are unconnected. Few people believe that.

The party they can't stop winning in Thailand

Thai voters deliver stunning blow to army-backed rule

It is true that Pheu Thai's hands have been tied by the unelected senate, a 250-seat constitutional landmine planted in Thailand's political landscape by the military junta which ruled for five years after a 2014 coup.

And Pheu Thai's bargaining position was weakened by its poorer-than-expected performance in the election, when it lost a lot of support to Move Forward and for the first time was relegated to second place.

The senators, all appointed under the junta, are allowed to join the 500 elected MPs in voting for the new prime minister. Their thinly-disguised remit is to block any party which might threaten the status quo - the nexus of monarchy, military and big business which has dominated decision-making in Thailand for decades.

Unsurprisingly they refused to back the Move Forward-led coalition with Pheu Thai, despite its commanding majority in the lower house. When it was Pheu Thai's turn to negotiate a new coalition, its need for senate support meant it had to take in some of its former opponents.

Many of the supporters had come from the northeast, a Thaksin stronghold

However some Pheu Thai politicians argue that the party should have held out for a better deal, by refusing to be in a government with the most hard-line conservative groups. Any minority administration formed without Pheu Thai and Move Forward would quickly collapse, because the senators cannot join normal parliamentary votes on issues like the budget.

But the Pheu Thai leadership was not willing to wait. It even invited the ultra-royalist party United Thai Nation to join the coalition, whose leaders have in the past been virulently critical of the Shinawatra family and their supporters. They were instrumental in ousting the last Pheu Thai government led by Mr Thaksin's sister Yingluck. That these two factions will now sit together in the same government is a mark of how far Thai politics has shifted.

In the end, for the ultra-royalists, the perceived threat posed by Move Forward, and by a younger generation of Thais demanding a conversation about the power and wealth of the monarchy, eclipsed their long feud with the Shinawatra family.

For the Shinawatras, and Pheu Thai's more conservative, business-minded elements, getting into government again and guaranteeing the deal to bring Mr Thaksin back, have been bigger priorities than worrying about the party's reputation.

But there are those, even within Pheu Thai, who are horrified by the cynical pragmatism of this deal.

They are warning that the party will lose even more of its once-passionate grass-roots supporters - and lose, perhaps forever, the dominance it held over electoral politics in Thailand for two decades.

New Thai leader Srettha Thavisin is a wealthy property developer who didn't hide his political views

JINTAMAS SAKSORNCHAI
Tue, August 22, 2023 



Pheu Thai supporters react during a parliamentary vote on Srettha Thavisin's prime ministerial candidacy, at the party headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, Tuesday, Aug. 22, 2023. 

(AP Photo/Wason Wanichakorn)

BANGKOK (AP) — The leader of one of Thailand's best-known property empires has been selected prime minister just nine months after joining a political party that champions the poor.

Parliament confirmed Srettha Thavisin on Tuesday, ending months of political uncertainty following May elections. The 61-year-old political newcomer, who exudes the confidence of a seasoned business tycoon, will lead the Pheu Thai party's push to stimulate the economy and bridge one of the world's worst inequality gaps.

“I’m doing this because I want to improve the country and the economy," Srettha wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, days ahead of the vote. "I’d like to emphasize again. My enemy is people’s poverty and inequality. My goal is a better livelihood for all Thai people.”

Srettha announced last November that he had joined Pheu Thai, the latest in a string of parties associated with popular but divisive former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted by a military coup in 2006. It was Srettha's first official step into politics.

Hours before Tuesday's parliamentary vote, Thaksin returned to Thailand from years of self-imposed exile and began serving an eight-year prison sentence on corruption charges he has dismissed as politically motivated. There has been widespread speculation that Srettha’s expected appointment was related to Thaksin's return and that it might help shorten his jail time.

Early this year, Srettha stepped down as CEO and president of his family’s company, Sansiri, one of Thailand’s largest property developers with assets worth over 100 billion baht ($2.9 billion). He also transferred all of his shares, reportedly valued at more than 1.2 billion baht ($35 million), in the company to his daughter.

The recipient of an MBA from Claremont Graduate University in the U.S., Srettha led Sansiri to a record profit of over 4 billion baht ($117 million) in 2022.

After Pheu Thai confirmed it would nominate him as prime minister, Srettha and Sansiri battled a series of accusations of tax evasion and money laundering. The company and its former boss denied any wrongdoing.

Pheu Thai finished second in the May elections but was able to assemble an 11-party coalition — including two pro-military parties affiliated with outgoing Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha — with enough parliamentary votes to approve Srettha.

Srettha was born into a wealthy family, and there has been skepticism over his ability to connect with Pheu Thai’s main voters in the country's relatively poor, rural north. After joining the party, he appeared at many campaign stops targeting the working class, including residents of Bangkok’s biggest slum community and rural farmers.

He became an adviser for Pheu Thai’s economic team and helped promote the party’s policies, including a plan to give 10,000 baht ($290) in digital money to all Thais age 16 and above, which created a major buzz.

Before starting his political career, Srettha was a high-profile critic of the outgoing government headed by Prayuth, who as army commander staged a coup that toppled a Pheu Thai government led by Thaksin’s sister Yingluck in 2014 and who returned as prime minister after a 2019 election. Srettha was among dozens of opposition politicians, academics and activists who were summoned by Prayuth’s junta for interrogation shortly after the coup.

Srettha wrote many online posts accusing Prayuth and his Cabinet of failing to effectively handle the COVID-19 pandemic. Combined with his support for student-led protests demanding democratic reforms in 2020, he earned a throng of followers who admired his views.

In an interview with Forbes Thailand last year, published just days before he formally announced his membership in Pheu Thai, Srettha said he believes big businesses and billionaires should contribute more to society to reduce inequality. He said he wants to inspire young people to help strengthen Thailand’s competitiveness with other countries.

Srettha Thavisin: football-loving property mogul turned Thai PM

Lisa MARTIN
Tue, August 22, 2023 

Property mogul and football fan Srettha Thavisin was approved by lawmakers as Thailand's new prime minister after months of political deadlock 

(MANAN VATSYAYANA)

Srettha Thavisin's confirmation as Thailand's 30th prime minister caps a swift and unexpected journey from the boardroom to the summit of political power.

Having helmed one of the kingdom's biggest real estate developers, the 61-year-old traded in his business suits for campaign trail casual wear when the Pheu Thai party named him as one of their three candidates for the top job.

The respect with which he is held by Thailand's powerful business community has sparked hopes he might kick-start the sluggish economy after a decade of drift under military-backed governments.

Srettha studied in the United States and entered politics having built fabulous wealth after heading one of Thailand's largest property firms, Sansiri.

His towering 1.90-metre (six-feet-three) frame was hard to miss during campaigning for the May election, although he cut a rather less glamorous and energetic figure than his fellow Pheu Thai candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the daughter of ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra.

Srettha sought out younger Thais with messages of education reform, LGBTQ rights, environmental protection, and measures to address Thailand's yawning inequality.

A dedicated Liverpool fan, he used TikTok to demonstrate his football skills, telling voters: "In football and politics... people cannot play alone, you have to play as a team."

His real estate firm diversified in 2017 into hospitality, tech and lifestyle businesses, spending some $80 million investing in boutique hotel chain Standard International, luxury magazine Monocle and other ventures.

Being associated with a number of "hip young brands" strengthened his appeal to a younger generation, Bangkok food and travel writer Vincent Vichit-Vadakan, who has chronicled Srettha's business career, told AFP.

"He can say he's hanging out with cool kids."

His relatively recent move into politics means he will likely struggle to impose his will on Pheu Thai, a party still seen as a vehicle for the Shinawatra clan.

He lacks "a direct base within the party", analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak told AFP.

"That weakens his standing... he will be tested from the outset," he said.

Thitinan said the party's "old boys' network" would have its own agenda and Srettha's success depended on whether he could marshal his own support.

"What will be interesting is to what extent Srettha will be able to bring in his own people," he said.

Srettha's rise to prime minister came after junta-appointed senators rejected Pita Limjaroenrat, whose Move Forward Party (MFP) won the most seats in May.

Pita's pledges to reform royal defamation laws and tackle powerful business monopolies spooked the kingdom's conservative elite.

Pheu Thai then forged a new coalition without MFP, allying with army-backed parties. The sober businessman in Srettha -- who is married with three adult children -- was then seen as more palatable to the establishment.

The Thai stock market reacted favourably to his election, rising nearly 20 points, while Sansiri shares were up almost 7.5 percent.

bur-lpm/pdw/pbt

Thaksin Ally Srettha Elected as New Thai PM, Ending Three-Month Political Impasse

Patpicha Tanakasempipat, Suttinee Yuvejwattana and Anuchit Nguyen
Tue, August 22, 2023

(Bloomberg) -- Some three months after an election that represented one of the biggest challenges in years to Thailand’s royal establishment, the country finally has a new prime minister — and it’s someone who has the support of forces aligned with the palace.

Srettha Thavisin, a former property tycoon, became the first new leader to take charge of Thailand since 2014, when former army chief Prayuth Chan-Ocha staged a coup. Srettha, 60, won at least 466 votes in a joint sitting of the parliament’s two chambers with 747 lawmakers on Tuesday, including 150 votes from the military-appointed Senate in addition to his bloc’s 314 elected lawmakers.

The vote came hours after Thaksin Shinawatra, a former premier who effectively helms Srettha’s Pheu Thai party, returned to Thailand for the first time in 15 years after cutting a deal with a military establishment that has repeatedly ousted his political allies over the past two decades. Pheu Thai had finished second to the upstart Move Forward party, which had pushed for changes to a law that restricts criticism of the nation’s powerful monarchy helmed by King Maha Vajiralongkorn.

The agreement between former enemies effectively shut the door on Move Forward from taking power. Pita Limjaroenrat, the party’s 42-year-old Harvard-educated leader, had vowed to press ahead with — a stance that prompted senators to deny him the premiership.

Thailand’s currency and stocks rallied on the news of Srettha’s election. The benchmark stock index jumped 1.3%, the biggest one-day gain since July 14, while the baht rose as much as 0.7%, the most in almost a month.

After landing in Thailand on Tuesday, Thaksin bowed before a portrait of the monarch to show his loyalty before being taken to prison to serve jail sentences for various cases stemming from his time as prime minister, which ended with a coup in 2006. He’s expected to receive a royal pardon at some point.

Red-clad supporters of Pheu Thai, who had thronged the airport to welcome back Thaksin, also celebrated Srettha’s win at the party headquarters in central Bangkok.

In the meantime, Srettha will look to move ahead with forming a cabinet among an 11-party alliance that can revive growth in Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, which is among the nations growing at the slowest pace in the region. Investors, who have fled Thailand’s stocks since the May election, will be watching if Srettha follows through with his coalition’s promise to fire up the economy with cash handouts and a dose of fiscal stimulus.

“The new government will be positive for the economy,” said Amonthep Chawla, head of research at CIMB Thai Bank Pcl in Bangkok. “It will help improve sentiment and spur economic activities” through stimulus measures, he said.

Srettha is a three-decade veteran in the real estate industry with an MBA from Claremont Graduate School in the US. He joined Pheu Thai earlier this year, first taking the role of being the chief adviser to Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra before being named as one of the three premier candidates.

An avid soccer player and a fan of Liverpool FC in the English Premier League, Srettha led Bangkok-based Sansiri Pcl for decades before resigning as president and chief executive in April.

In an interview with Bloomberg earlier this year, Srettha said he wants to stimulate the economy that’s lagging the growth of its neighbors and bridge the gap between the rich and the poor. He was the one to unveil Pheu Thai’s “digital wallet” scheme that would give every Thai who is 16 years old and above 10,000 baht each.

The new prime minister will also have to follow through with Pheu Thai’s campaign pledges such as a 70% hike in minimum wage, household income guarantee of 20,000 baht per month and tripling of farm profits to lift economic growth to 5%.

Data Monday showed gross domestic product grew 1.8% in the second quarter, missing analysts estimate for a 3% growth and prompting authorities to slash the 2023 forecast to a range of 2.5% to 3% from 2.7%-3.7% seen previously.

The $500 billion trade- and tourism-reliant economy faces headwinds from a slowdown in China, which has hurt Thai exports, and also a slow return of Chinese tourists.

--With assistance from Pathom Sangwongwanich

Can Thailand's Pheu Thai Party form a coalition government?
Martin Petty
Updated Mon, August 21, 2023

Thai PM hopeful Srettha says alliance with military parties a necessary path

By Martin Petty

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand's Pheu Thai Party will attempt to form a government on Tuesday after weeks of post-election deadlock, with real estate tycoon Srettha Thavisin set to be nominated as prime minister and face a vote in parliament.

WHO IS SRETTHA?

Srettha, 60, is an outsider and political neophyte little known beyond Thailand. He joined the populist Pheu Thai in 2022 and up until the May 14 election was president of property developer Sansiri. He is not a member of parliament.

The six feet, 3 inch (1.92 m) tall Srettha is a finance graduate from the Claremont Graduate School in the United States who once worked for Procter & Gamble in Thailand.


Though he has no experience in government, his political ascent has been largely welcomed by businesses and he is untainted by the bitter power struggles that have dogged Thai politics for nearly two decades.

WHY IS HE BEING NOMINATED FOR PM?

Pheu Thai came a close second in the election but its pact with the winner, the progressive Move Forward, fell through after that party's prime ministerial candidate Pita Limjaroenrat failed to win support from lawmakers allied with the royalist military. Pheu Thai is now leading the effort to form a government.

The billionaire Shinawatra family that founded Pheu Thai has a long and bitter history with the military, which ousted the governments of Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister, Yingluck Shinawatra, in 2006 and 2014 respectively.

Thaksin's youngest daughter, Paetongtarn, was another possible candidate for prime minister. But to Pheu Thai's rivals, newcomer Srettha could be a more palatable compromise than having another Shinawatra at the helm.

DOES SRETTHA HAVE PARLIAMENT'S BACKING?

Fourteen parties have pledged support for Srettha and Pheu Thai in the lower house, but the biggest stumbling block will be the upper house Senate, whose 249 members were appointed by the generals who toppled Pheu Thai's last government.

The military created the rules under which a prime minister is selected, with the Senate essentially protecting establishment interests by serving as a bulwark against elected progressive politicians.

The Senate's largely conservative members were instrumental in ensuring Move Forward's Pita failed and it is unclear how many will see Srettha and Pheu Thai as a better option.

Srettha needs 375 votes, or more than half of the combined lower and upper houses. Pheu Thai's alliance has 11 parties with a combined 314 seats, and three more lower-house lawmakers backing it, so it needs the votes of 58 Senators.

WHAT'S DIFFERENT THIS TIME?

The military-backed United Thai Nation and Palang Pracharat parties that were instrumental in thwarting Move Forward have joined the alliance backing Srettha.

But scepticism remains about how firm that support is, given the army's years-long efforts to undermine Pheu Thai. To have such backing from its enemies indicates some kind of once unthinkable power-sharing agreement may have been made behind the scenes.

That would boost Srettha's chances of winning the backing of Senators allied with the army.

However, given the fraught history, there will be doubts about the effectiveness of such a coalition, how long a Pheu Thai-led government might last, and whether the military and allies in key institutions might try to push Pheu Thai out later.

An opinion poll published on the weekend showed many Thais were not happy with the idea of a Pheu Thai-military pact.

WHAT ROLE IS THAKSIN SHINAWATRA PLAYING?

Officially, none, but as the self-exiled figurehead of the Pheu Thai political juggernaut, it is almost certain Thaksin would have been involved in any deal made between rival camps.

Thaksin, 74, is a fugitive in Thailand and plans to return on Tuesday, the same day as the vote, after 17 years abroad dodging jail sentences handed down in absentia for abuse of power and more.

The change of heart suggests Thaksin is confident the vote will go in Pheu Thai's way and any deal he has with old enemies will hold - including over his incarceration - despite the history of mistrust and betrayal. Some people in Thailand, however, are sceptical about Thaksin's promised homecoming and see it as political theatre.

Thailand's ex-PM Thaksin jailed on return from exile

AFP
Tue, August 22, 2023

Former Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra returned from 15 years in exile on Tuesday and was immediately jailed, but his time behind bars could be cut short with his party on the cusp of winning back power.

The divisive billionaire landed in a private jet at Bangkok's Don Mueang airport at 9 am (0200 GMT), to be greeted by hundreds of noisy "Red Shirt" supporters waving banners and singing songs.

Thaksin, 74, emerged briefly from the terminal building to bow and offer a floral garland at a portrait of King Maha Vajiralongkorn as a mark of respect before waving to supporters.

More Red Shirts lined the streets as the former Manchester City owner was taken to the Supreme Court.

There, he was ordered to serve eight years for three convictions passed in his absence -- one linked to his former Shin Corp company, another linked to a bank loan, and a lottery case.

But it was unclear how long Thaksin would stay in jail.

His return came just hours before parliament was expected to install business tycoon Srettha Thavisin as prime minister at the head of a coalition led by the Pheu Thai party -- the latest incarnation of Thaksin's political movement.

The timing of Thaksin's return, with his party on the verge of assuming power, has led many to speculate that a backroom deal has been done to allow him leniency.

- Loved and loathed -

Thaksin has said he was willing to face justice in order to return home and see his grandchildren -- though he has long maintained the criminal charges against him are politically motivated.

"I would like to request permission to return to live on Thai soil and share the air with my fellow Thai brothers and sisters," he posted Monday on Twitter, which has been rebranded as X.

For all his long absence from the country, Thaksin remains Thailand's most influential -- and controversial -- politician of modern times.

His career has included two election victories, defeat in a coup, criminal charges and the long years of self-imposed exile.

Loved by the rural poor for policies including cheap healthcare and the minimum wage, he is reviled by the pro-military and royalist elite who saw his rule as corrupt, authoritarian and a threat to Thai social order.

Parties linked to Thaksin have dominated elections since 2001 -- until this year, when the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) won the most seats.

Hundreds of Red Shirts waited through the night at the airport to welcome him with songs and banners -- most decked out in their usual crimson colours.

"I am a real Red Shirt -- whenever they want our support, I will always be there for them," Karuna Wantang, 70, a retired bureaucrat from Nongkai, in the country's northeast, told AFP.

"I don't only like him but I love him."

The Department of Corrections said Thaksin had been isolated in prison because of health problems, including heart and lung complaints, but his family would be able to visit him after five days.

Asked about the possibility of a royal pardon, the deputy director of the Department of Corrections Sithi Suthiwong told reporters the process took "about one to two months, if the documents are sufficient".

"Relevant parties can apply for the royal pardon procedure. We will hand it to the justice minister and then the prime minister passes it to the Privy Council," he said.

- PM vote -

While Thaksin was being processed by the courts, his party formally nominated Srettha as its PM candidate in parliament, where a confirmation vote will be held around 3 pm.

MFP beat Pheu Thai into second place in May's polls.

But MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat saw his bid to become PM sunk by conservative junta-appointed senators, who were spooked by his party's determination to reform royal insult laws and tackle business monopolies.

After MFP dropped out, Pheu Thai cooked up a controversial coalition of a dozen parties including those of former coup-makers who ousted Thaksin's sister Yingluck as PM in 2014.

The partnership has outraged many Pheu Thai supporters and Aaron Connelly, a Southeast Asian politics expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies said the party would expect a payoff.

"If he (Thaksin) doesn't receive a royal pardon within a certain amount of time then they might begin to question whether they entered a coalition under false pretences," he told AFP.

bur-pdw/qan

Thaksin Return From Exile Shows Thai Royalists Have Bigger Enemy

Patpicha Tanakasempipat
Mon, August 21, 2023


(Bloomberg) -- Back in 2008, the last time Thaksin Shinawatra stepped foot in Thailand, he was adored among the nation’s poorer masses and widely despised by the royalist elite who backed his removal in a coup two years earlier.

On Tuesday, Thaksin is expected to return to Thailand — ostensibly after making a deal with the same military-backed establishment that spent years overturning his party’s election victories through coups and court decisions.

“Tomorrow at 9 o’clock I would like to request permission to return to live in Thailand and breathe the same air as the Thai brothers and sisters,” Thaksin said on X on Monday. Last week, his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra said he would arrive at Bangkok’s Don Mueang airport at 9 a.m.

Thaksin’s arrival will coincide with a vote for prime minister later in the day, after his party officially joined forces with conservative groups previously aligned with former Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-Ocha, a former army chief who had led a 2014 coup against ex-leader Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s sister. The bloc’s candidate to become prime minister is Srettha Thavisin, a member of the Thaksin-backed Pheu Thai party who spent years in the real estate industry.

The awkward 11-party alliance emerged after both camps saw their interests align in the wake of a May election that produced a stunning win for Move Forward, a party that advocated changes to a law forbidding criticism of King Maha Vajiralongkorn and other top royals. The royalist parties wanted to keep Move Forward out of power, while Thaksin sought to strike a deal that would allow him to return to Thailand after 15 years of shuttling between Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai and London.

“Pheu Thai is the most powerful party to battle the emergence of Move Forward, after the electoral defeat of the conservative parties,” said Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University. “As the saying goes, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

Political Drama

Thaksin’s return will mark a full-circle moment in Thailand’s political drama, which has seen a cycle of coups and deadly street protests erodes the nation’s competitiveness as a Southeast Asian manufacturing destination since the turn of the century. Foreign investors have dumped about $3.8 billion of Thai stocks this year, triggering an almost 9% slump in the main stock index to rank it among Asia’s worst performers.

It’s unclear how much Thailand’s outlook will change after a new government is formed, assuming the coalition doesn’t fall apart at the last minute. On Monday, the group pledged a mix of cash handouts and fiscal measures to stimulate an economy that expanded 1.8% in the second quarter, well below a consensus forecast of 3% growth.

Thaksin himself will likely head straight to jail, as he was found guilty in absentia in four corruption cases and still faces 10 years in prison. The Bangkok Post reported that Thaksin would be taken to the Supreme Court immediately after landing, after which he would be taken to prison.

In May, he said he would go through the judicial process and also asked for permission to return, without providing more details on the request. King Maha Vajiralongkorn has the power to pardon any criminals.

“It’s all my own decision for the love and bond I have for my family, homeland, and our master,” Thaksin said at the time.

Thaksin, a former telecom billionaire, first rose to power in 2001 after pledging to revive Thai growth in the wake of the Asian financial crisis and help poorer citizens with cheap healthcare and debt relief measures. His party won 75% of seats up for grabs in a 2005 election, spooking a royalist establishment that had allowed only limited democracy since Thailand abolished absolute monarchy in 1932.

Change of Guard

Thaksin was ousted in a coup the following year, kicking off a power struggle lasting almost two decades in which his political allies would win elections only to see unelected generals, bureaucrats and judges overturn them, using a variety of methods.

This year’s election, however, saw Pheu Thai finish in second place despite being led by Thaksin’s youngest daughter Paetongtarn, who turned 37 on Monday. That marked a changing of the guard, as younger Thais become more disillusioned with an establishment that has restricted democracy.

Suddenly the most popular politician in Thailand wasn’t affiliated with Thaksin. Harvard-educated Pita Limjaroenrat, 42, proved both more democratic and ideological, willing to talk about sensitive issues related to the monarchy — something Thaksin had always resisted.

The establishment quickly moved to block Pita from taking power, with the military-appointed Senate — mandated by a constitution written after the 2014 coup — preventing him from becoming prime minister. That paved the way for Thaksin’s Pheu Thai to cut a deal with the military, cementing his return and helping conservatives defuse what they perceive to be the biggest threat to the monarchy.

“This election has been about Thaksin from the beginning,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University. “His return will strengthen the conservative establishment that was already weakened by the election process. This will delay the democratic process in Thailand.”

(Updates with Bangkok Post report in ninth paragraph.)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

THE KING AND JUNTA RULE
Thai Election Winner Seeks to Strip Senate of Voting Power

Patpicha Tanakasempipat
Fri, July 14, 2023 

(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s Move Forward, the party that won the most seats in the May general election, is trying to strip some of the Senate’s powers after the military-appointed upper house of parliament blocked pro-democracy leader Pita Limjaroenrat’s bid to become prime minister.

Move Forward submitted a bill Friday to abolish an article in the 2017 military-backed constitution, which gives the unelected Senate the power to select the prime minister alongside the elected lower house.

This isn’t the first time that someone is trying to challenge the Senate’s voting right. Six attempts have been made in vain since 2020 by political parties and civil society groups to curb the power of the Senate, because such a proposal ironically needs support from at least a third of the 250-member upper house to pass.

Move Forward’s submission came a day after its leader Pita, the sole nominee of the eight-party coalition that has staked a claim to form Thailand’s next government, was thwarted in his bid for premiership by senators, the majority of whom rejected Pita outright or abstained from voting. In doing so, they undermined the result of the May 14 election where voters had overwhelmingly supported pro-democracy parties.

“We don’t know how many times the prime minister selection will be held until it concludes. So, we can do this hand in hand,” Chaithawat Tulathon, secretary-general of Move Forward Party, told reporters at the parliament house. “Since the Senate didn’t want to vote anyway, we’re only looking for a solution for everybody.”

Among the 250-member Senate, as many as 159 members abstained from voting and 34 voted against Pita outright on Thursday. Only 13 backed the popular mandate. But Chaithawat said the party will seek support from more senators for Pita at the next round of prime minister selection next week.

Many members cited Move Forward’s platform to amend Thailand’s lese majeste law, which prohibits criticism of the king or other royals, as a reason for withholding support. Pita has vowed to not back down on the proposal, raising further tension with the pro-military royalist establishment.

The bill was accepted by house speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha, who confirmed at the briefing that the second vote to select the prime minister will be held by the joint National Assembly on July 19, at 9:30 a.m. in Bangkok.

“I’ll process this as soon as possible as this is an urgent matter,” Wan said.

 Bloomberg Businessweek

Thailand's Move Forward seeks to curb Senate powers after loss in PM vote


Thailand's parliament votes for a new prime minister

Updated Fri, July 14, 2023 
By Chayut Setboonsarng and Panarat Thepgumpanat

BANGKOK (Reuters) -Thailand's Move Forward party filed a motion in parliament on Friday seeking to curb the power of the military-appointed Senate, a day after the body thwarted its party leader's bid to become prime minister.

The role of the 249-member Senate in deciding a prime minister along with the elected lower house - a system designed by the royalist military after a 2014 coup - is seen as a constitutional safeguard to protect the interests of the generals and the conservative establishment.

Move Forward won the most seats in an election in May but despite being unopposed and having the backing of his eight-party alliance, its leader Pita Limjaroenrat lost the crucial vote on the premiership on Thursday, after the Senate and parties of the outgoing, army-backed government closed ranks to deny him the top job.

Only 13 senators backed 42-year-old Pita, with the rest voting against him or abstaining, which his party said indicated some were acting under duress.

Party secretary general Chaithawat Tulathon filed a motion on Friday to amend part of the constitution, saying "This is a solution that all sides will feel comfortable with".

"There are forces from the old power to pressure the Senate - from the old power to some capitalists who do not want to see a Move Forward government," he said in an earlier television interview, adding it could take about one month to pass.

Pita, a liberal from the private sector, has won huge youth support for his plan to shake up politics and bring reforms to sectors and institutions long considered untouchable.

That includes the monarchy, more specifically, a law that prohibits insulting it, by far Move Forward's most contentious policy and a big obstacle in its attempts to persuade legislators to back Pita.

MAJOR BLOW

Pita vowed on Thursday not to abandon those policies or give up his fight for the premiership. He can run again if nominated in the next vote for the post, which takes place on July 19, the House speaker confirmed.

The defeat on Thursday followed a major blow for Pita on the eve of the vote, when the election commission recommended he be disqualified over a shareholding issue, followed hours later by the Constitutional Court announcing it had taken on a complaint over his party's plan to amend the royal insult law.

The political tension this week had been widely expected.

Thailand has been locked for two decades in a power struggle between reform-minded parties that win elections and a nexus of old money and the military establishment determined to stifle them.

Pro-democracy groups have called for protests. Activist group the United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration took aim at the senators and those who abstained in the vote, calling them spineless and "toxic to the will of people".

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University, called the constitution a straitjacket on democracy, and said systematic attempts to stop Move Forward would see a public backlash.

"These old guard institutions, they need to maintain power because they have a lot to lose," he said.

"The kind of change that Move Forward demands would unwind Thailand's monarchy-centred system and then it would unlock institutional reforms... this would unleash a lot of the competitiveness of Thailand, Thailand's potential."

(Additional reporting by Napat Wesshasarter and Juarawee KittisilpaWriting by Martin PettyEditing by Frances Kerry)

Ambitious liberal fails in first bid to become Thailand's next leader

Thailand's parliament votes for a new prime minister

Thu, July 13, 2023
By Devjyot Ghoshal and Panu Wongcha-um

BANGKOK (Reuters) - In the 60 days since a stunning election victory, the leader of Thailand's Move Forward party forged and managed a coalition, cajoled the royalist military establishment and rallied his troops with a single goal - to become prime minister.

On Thursday, 42-year-old Pita Limjaroenrat failed in his initial bid to win the premiership after he was unable to secure enough votes in a joint sitting of Thailand's 750-member parliament. Another vote is expected to be held next week, which Pita can contest if nominated again.

The setback came despite Move Forward's victory in the May general election, where it emerged the single largest party after running a slick, social-media powered campaign that promised progressive, transparent government to Thai voters.-

But Pita and Move Forward's agenda - particularly a once-unthinkable proposal to amend Thailand's "lese majeste" law - also pit them against the country's powerful conservative establishment, which controls the 250-member appointed senate.

"Give Thailand the opportunity to have a majority government according to the will of the people," he said in a video message on Tuesday, reiterating a call to elected and unelected lawmakers to support him in the bicameral vote.

"I can be a prime minister who runs a country that embraces everybody's diverse dreams," he said.

Yet, by Wednesday afternoon - less than a day before the vote - Pita's quest for power was hit by a double-whammy.

First, Thailand's election commission recommended the Constitutional Court disqualify Pita as a lawmaker because of his ownership of shares in a media company in violation of electoral rules.

Second, the Constitutional Court said it had accepted a complaint against Pita and his party over plans to amend the lese majeste law, Article 112 of the criminal code that punishes insulting the monarchy with up to 15 years in prison.

The actions were a throwback to 2020, when a court ordered the predecessor party of Move Forward dissolved and some of its leaders banned from politics for a decade for violations of election rules.

It was into that breach that Pita - then a first-term lawmaker from a politically influential family with experience working in the technology sector - stepped, becoming the leader of the newly-formed Move Forward.

The position foisted the Harvard University graduate on to the centre stage of Thai politics, which was roiled by a youth-led reformist movement that saw thousands take to the streets, sometimes leading to violent clashes in the heart of Bangkok.

The young protesters took on the military-backed rulers head on, calling for deep-seated reforms, a new constitution and questioning the monarchy's long-held influence on politics and society.

Some of those protesters - and some of those demands - were part of Move Forward's electoral juggernaut, including a call to amend the lese majeste law.

'ABLE TO COMPROMISE'

In a country where many consider the monarch semi-divine, analysts doubted whether a Pita-led Move Forward would be able to push aside a raft of conservative and pro-establishment parties that had dominated domestic politics for over a decade.

At the hustings, Pita drew large, adoring crowds - many of them young voters. The party's trademark orange logo and sharp messaging flooded social media. Late in the campaign, the first-time prime ministerial candidate saw a surge in popularity.

"Vote for Move Forward to change this country together," Pita said in a slick campaign video, taking off a pair of sunglasses and winking.

To millions of Thais weary of an almost decade-long military-backed rule, Pita offered an raft of changes, including increase in minimum wages, dismantling of business monopolies, streamlining of the armed forces and legalising same-sex marriage.

When the numbers rolled in late on May 14, Move Forward not only trounced the ruling coalition but also bettered the populist Pheu Thai Party - the opposition outfit backed by self-exiled tycoon Thaksin Shinawatra, a former prime minister.

The outcome pushed Pita to switch gears from candidate to coalition builder, as a group of seven parties - including the Pheu Thai - coalesced around Move Forward to win power.

"Pita is a democratic representative who can elevate Thailand on the global stage in a dignified way," said Kannawee Suebsang, a member of parliament from the Fair Party, which is part of Pita's eight party-coalition.

"He is a strong leader with charisma but is also able to compromise."

(Reporting by Devjyot Ghoshal and Panu Wongcha-um; Editing by Nick Macfie)

Thailand’s PM Race Can Take a Whole New Turn, Here’s How









Philip J. Heijmans and Patpicha Tanakasempipat
Thu, July 13, 2023 

(Bloomberg) -- After failing to win over Thai conservatives in his first attempt to become prime minister, things are looking increasingly difficult for pro-democracy leader Pita Limjaroenrat to secure a victory even if he were to try again.

The parties outside of Pita’s Move Forward-led coalition and the majority of military-appointed senators are opposed to his key campaign promise of amending the so-called lese majeste law that punishes anyone for defaming or insulting the king or other royals.- 

Also, the Harvard-educated politician risks disqualification as a lawmaker after the poll body found him in breach of election rules — saying he held shares in a defunct media company while running for public office. While he may still go for a second chance at premiership when parliament meets next on July 19, analysts expect support for Pita to wear thin within his alliance should he lose again; although there’s no limit on the number of re-votes he can seek.

“I think they will run him again,” said Kevin Hewison, emeritus professor of Asian Studies at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Another attempt by Pita will probably harden the stance of conservatives and only weaken support for the pro-democracy alliance, according to Hewison.

The longer it takes for Thailand to form a new government, the more investors will lose confidence in the $500 billion economy whose expansion has been lagging emerging-market peers in Southeast Asia through the pandemic and after. Political wrangling between pro-democracy and conservative groups have also hurt the country’s stocks, bonds and currency markets.

Here are some other scenarios that could play out:

Pita Supports Pheu Thai

Pita could step aside and instead support his coalition partner Pheu Thai, which finished second-place in the May 14 general election and is linked to exiled former leader Thaksin Shinawatra.

Isra Sunthornvut, a former member of parliament for the Democrat Party, said he wouldn’t be surprised if next week Pita throws his support behind Pheu Thai to lead the government “for the sake of the country and democracy.”

The only challenge to this scenario is that Pheu Thai may find it difficult to muster support from the conservatives while still being an ally of Move Forward, which has refused to back down on its push to amend the royal insult law.

Pro-Democracy Group Splits

That could leave Pheu Thai inclined to consider breaking away from Move Forward’s coalition and try forming a government led by one of its three candidates for the post, including real estate magnate Srettha Thavisin and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the youngest daughter of Thaksin.

Thaksin, who has been considering returning home, had previously said Pheu Thai would not support any attempt to reform the lese majeste law. That makes it easier for Pheu Thai to win enough support from the 250-member military-appointed Senate, helping put a new government sooner than later.

The private sector wants the new government to be in place as soon as possible, so our economy can continue to grow as expected, Thai Chamber of Commerce Chairman Sanan Angubolkul said Friday.

Military-Backed Minority Government

A third scenario involves the Senate supporting a minority government led either by Bhumjaithai’s Anutin Charnvirakul or one of the military-backed parties. That outcome, however, risks sparking protests by supporters of pro-democracy groups.

Since the Senate’s ability to vote for the prime minister expires next year, any minority government is at risk of falling in a no-confidence vote. To guard against that, it’s possible that the establishment may petition the courts to disband Move Forward as what happened in the past to their predecessor, using the push to amend the royal insult law as a pretext, and even annul the election result.

“But that might take some time,” Hewison said referring to the process of disbanding Move Forward and annulling the result. “That said, going to an election quickly is unlikely to produce a different result. But conservatives in Thailand are a balmy lot.”

However, any move to ban the nation’s popular politicians may lead to massive demonstrations. And this time the risks are even higher for the royalist establishment, as protesters have recently been much bolder in directly targeting the monarchy than in previous years.

Such a turn of events could end up hurting tourism, the only economic engine that’s firing on full cylinders and supporting Thailand’s growth amid a downturn in global demand for goods.

--With assistance from Suttinee Yuvejwattana, Cecilia Yap and Anuchit Nguyen.

Thailand's Election Commission says a reformist candidate for prime minister may have broken the law



 Leader of Move Forward Party Pita Limjaroenrat arrives before the signing of a memorandum of understanding on attempt to form a coalition government between Move Forward Party and other parties during a news conference in Bangkok, Thailand on May 22, 2023. 

Thailand's state Election Commission announced Wednesday, July 12, it has concluded there is evidence that the top candidate to become the country's next prime minister, Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat, has violated election law, and has referred his case to the Constitutional Court for a ruling. (AP Photo/Sakchai Lalit, File)

JINTAMAS SAKSORNCHAI and GRANT PECK
Updated Wed, July 12, 2023 

BANGKOK (AP) — Thailand’s Election Commission said Wednesday there is evidence that the top candidate to become the next prime minister — a reformist with strong backing among progressive young voters — violated election law and referred his case to the Constitutional Court.

The commission’s decision included a request that the court order Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat to be suspended as a member of Parliament until the panel issues a ruling.

The alleged violation involves undeclared ownership of media company shares, which are banned for lawmakers. Separately, the court also said it would review a complaint that Pita and his party may have violated the law by proposing to amend Thailand's strict legal provision against defaming the monarchy. Thai media said the court would not make any ruling on Wednesday and that it might need some to consider the issues.

Pita can still be nominated on Thursday when Parliament meets to vote for a new prime minister. But the commission's move raises new doubts about whether he can muster enough votes to get the post, already a struggle because of Thailand's deep political divisions.


The Move Forward Party, with a progressive reformist platform, swept to a surprise first-place finish in May’s general election, capturing 151 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives and the most popular votes. Move Forward has assembled an eight-party, 311-seat coalition with which it had planned to take power.

But Pita's path to power is difficult because he must win 376 votes in a joint session of the House and the conservative, 250-seat, non-elected Senate. The Senate largely represents Thailand's traditional ruling establishment, which suspects Move Forward's proposals for minor reforms of the monarchy endanger the royal institution, which they consider to be the center of Thais' national identity.

Pita's party responded to the Election Commission's decision by questioning its fairness and even its legality. It said its decision was unnecessarily hurried and violated its own procedures by failing to call Pita to give a statement.

The commission had earlier said it acted correctly but Move Forward alleges its members may have engaged in malfeasance, or carrying out duties in a wrongful manner, a crime punishable by 10 years imprisonment and a fine.

The election law complaint against Pita, lodged by a member of a rival party, alleges he ran for office in 2019 while failing to declare his shares in a media company.

The case the commission referred to the court accuses Pita of running for office with awareness that he was ineligible, a criminal violation punishable by maximum imprisonment of three years and/or a fine of up to 60,000 baht ($1,720). The party faces a fine of up to 100,000 baht ($2,865).

Caretaker Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, the government’s top legal advisor, has been quoted as saying that a ruling against Pita could be grounds for nullifying the May election results and holding a new election.

There have been fears since the election that Thailand’s conservative ruling establishment would use what its political opponents consider to be dirty tricks to hold on to power. For a decade-and-a-half, it has repeatedly used the courts and supposedly independent state agencies such as the Election Commission to issue controversial rulings to cripple or sink political opponents.

The dissolution in 2019 of the Future Forward party, a forerunner of Move Forward, triggered vigorous street protests by pro-democracy activists that trailed off only when the coronavirus pandemic took hold.

Hours after the Election Commission announced its referral of the shareholding case, the Constitutional Court said it had has accepted a separate petition against Move Forward and Pita concerning their campaign promise to amend Thailand's harsh lese majeste law,.

The law, also known as Article 112, mandates a three to 15 year prison term for defaming the king, his immediate family, or the regent. Critics of the law say it is abused for political purposes, and Move Forward wants changes to rein in such abuses, which it claims actually do damage to the monarchy's reputation.

Royalists soundly reject all efforts to amend the law, and courts have sometimes treated such proposals themselves as tantamount to violating the law. The military and the courts consider themselves stalwart defenders of the monarchy, and the Senate members overwhelmingly share their viewpoint.

If the court agrees that the accused's actions constitute trying to overthrow the constitutional monarchy — a separate provision from Article 112 — they will not be subject to punishment but can be ordered to cease all activities related to their proposed amendment, subject to prosecution if they continue.

Analysis-Thailand's monarchy looms over battle for prime minister
 

Vajiralongkorn, King of Thailand

Move Forward Party leader Pita Limjaroenrat thanks voters ahead 

of the vote for a new prime minister on July 13, in Bangkok


Mon, July 10, 2023 

By Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat

BANGKOK (Reuters) - The role of the monarchy in Thailand is at the core of a looming deadlock that could tip Southeast Asia's second-largest economy into crisis, with reformers once again vying to dislodge the grip on power of the royalist military establishment.

Despite a stunning victory with its allies in a May 14 election over pro-military parties, the progressive Move Forward party led by Pita Limjaroenrat faces an uncertain path to government.

The main reason is that part of Move Forward's political platform is the once-unthinkable proposal to amend Thailand's "lese majeste" law, Article 112 of the criminal code that punishes insulting the monarchy with up to 15 years in prison.


In a country where reverence for the monarch has for decades been promoted as central to national identity, the idea is so radical that minority parties and many members of the appointed Senate have vowed to block Pita from becoming prime minister.

"The proposed amendment is disrespectful and is offensive to the monarchy," Senator Seri Suwanpanon told Reuters.

The military has for decades invoked its duty to defend the monarchy to justify intervention in politics, and used the lese majeste law to stifle dissent, critics say.

In parliament, a giant portrait of King Maha Vajiralongkorn hangs over the chamber where on Thursday members will vote for a prime minister.

But the battle over who gets the job could lead to weeks or even months of deadlock thanks to the votes of a 250-seat Senate, appointed by a junta, that could block the election-winning progressive alliance from securing its choice in a combined vote of both chambers.

The system was set out in a constitution drafted after a 2014 coup led by then-army chief Prayuth Chan-ocha, the prime minister whose party lost badly in the May election.

Much depends on whether Move Forward's main ally, second-place winner Pheu Thai, sticks with it or seeks other coalition partners if Pita's bid looks doomed.

King Vajiralongkorn, 70, who has no role in choosing a government, has remained silent on the lese majeste issue since the election. The Royal Palace did not respond to a request for comment.

SWEEPING CHANGE

Move Forward's proposed amendment reflects cultural changes that have in a few years swept Thailand, where the monarch has for decades been held up as almost semi-divine.

On the surface, much remains the same. The king's portrait hangs on city streets and buildings. The nightly Royal News airs the royal family's good deeds.

But subtle changes are evident. In cinemas, many no longer stand for the royal anthem before every film. Satirical memes spring up on social media before the government orders them removed.

The biggest change, however, is political. In the last election in 2019, no party would have dared suggest amending the lese majeste law.

But Move Forward not only dared, it won the most seats in May though the amendment was only one plank of a progressive platform.

The shift emerged with student-led demonstrations in 2020 that began as protests against military rule but evolved into criticism of what the protesters called a military-palace power nexus, and finally into criticism of the king.

Politicians did not lead the protests but Move Forward called for reform of the lese majeste law when activists began to be charged under it.

About 250 of the 1,900 prosecutions linked to the 2020 protests were under Article 112, according to the group Thai Lawyers for Human Rights.

The prosecution of so many under the law pushed the issue into mainstream discourse, analysts say.

"We can now see the real fault line in politics is the role of the monarchy in Thailand's political order," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political analyst at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University.

NUMBERS GAME

With many senators expected to vote against Pita for prime minister, Move Forward's 312-seat alliance of eight parties in the 500-seat lower House of Representatives may not be enough to secure him the premiership.

To get to the 376 votes he needs, Move Forward and main partner Pheu Thai need to convince 64 lawmakers from the Senate, or from other parties in the lower house.

If Pita falls short, other scenarios come into play.

Pheu Thai, which has 141 seats to Move Forward's 151, could nominate its prime ministerial candidate with the eight-party alliance intact.

Loyal to self-exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra who was ousted in a 2006 coup, Pheu Thai has been more careful in its messaging on lese majeste, so one of its prime ministerial candidates could win enough votes.

Another possibility is that Pheu Thai seeks other partners in the lower house for a coalition without Move Forward. Pheu Thai, however, is vowing to stick with Move Forward.

Titipol Phakdeewanich, dean of the faculty of political science at Ubon Ratchathani University, said using the law to crush dissent had backfired.

"By over-using Article 112, the conservatives dragged the royal institution deeper into politics," he said.

Move Forward says amending the law will prevent its misuse and benefit the monarchy. It wants the penalty reduced to at most a year in prison, and only the Royal Household Bureau to be able to file a complaint instead of anyone.

"Some senators misunderstood ... accusing Move Forward of wanting to topple the monarchy," party executive committee member Amarat Chokepamitkul told Reuters.

"We want to amend it to maintain good relations between the monarchy and the people."

(Reporting by Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat; Editing by Kay Johnson, Robert Birsel)