Lebanon's descent into turmoil: assassinations, war, financial collapse


A man walks past posters depicting Lebanon's former Prime Minister Saad Al-Hariri in Beirut

Sun, May 8, 2022, 

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Lebanon holds an election on May 15 that could see a shift of power that sends shockwaves far beyond this small country squeezed between Syria and Israel.

Here is a timeline of the nation's recent history, from assassinations and war to a devastating explosion and economic meltdown.

2005

Lebanon's billionaire former premier Rafik al-Hariri is killed on Feb. 14 when a huge bomb explodes as his motorcade travels through Beirut; 21 others also die.

Mass demonstrations erupt blaming the assassination on Syria, which had deployed troops during Lebanon's 15-year civil war and kept them there after it ended in 1990.


Shi'ite allies of Damascus stage their own big rallies in support of Syria, but international pressure forces the troops to withdraw.

2006

In July, armed movement Hezbollah crosses the border into Israel, kidnaps two Israeli soldiers and kills others, sparking a five-week war. At least 1,200 people in Lebanon and 158 Israelis are killed.

After the war, tensions in Lebanon simmer over Hezbollah's arsenal. In November, Hezbollah and its allies quit the cabinet led by Western-backed Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and organise street protests against it.

Anti-Syria politician Pierre Gemayel is assassinated in November.

2007

Hezbollah and its allies maintain a sit-in protest in central Beirut against the Siniora government for the entire year. Their stated demand is veto power in the government.

2008

Wissam Eid, a police intelligence officer investigating the Hariri assassination, is killed by a car bomb in January.

In May, the government outlaws Hezbollah's telecom network. Hezbollah calls the government's move a declaration of war and takes control of mainly Muslim west Beirut in retaliation.

After mediation, rival leaders sign a deal in Qatar to end 18 months of political conflict.

2011

The government led by Hariri's son and political heir, Saad, is toppled when Hezbollah and its allies quit because of tensions over a U.N.-backed tribunal into the Rafik al-Hariri assassination.

2012

Hezbollah fighters deploy to Syria to aid President Bashar al-Assad's forces against a Sunni rebellion.

In October, a car bomb kills senior security official Wissam al-Hassan, whose intelligence service had arrested Michel Samaha, a pro-Syrian former minister charged with transporting Syrian-assembled bombs to wage attacks in Lebanon.

2017

Sunni regional superpower Saudi Arabia, increasingly frustrated with Hezbollah's expanding role in Lebanon, is accused of detaining Saad al-Hariri in Riyadh and forcing him to resign.

Both Riyadh and Hariri publicly deny this version of events, though French leader Emmanuel Macron later says Hariri was being held in Saudi Arabia.

2018

Lebanon holds its first parliamentary vote since 2009, after lawmakers repeatedly extended their four-year mandate, citing security concerns.

Hezbollah and allied groups and individuals win at least 69 of the 128 seats, consolidating their hold over the legislative branch.

2019

Despite a stagnant economy and slowing capital inflows, the government fails to enact reforms that might unlock foreign support, including cutting the state wage and pension bill.

In October, a government move to tax internet calls ignites mass cross-sectarian protests accusing the ruling elite of corruption and mismanagement.

Hariri quits on Oct. 29. The financial crisis accelerates. Depositors are frozen out of their savings amid a hard currency liquidity crunch and crashing currency.

2020

Hassan Diab, a little-known academic, becomes prime minister in January with backing from Hezbollah and its allies.

Lebanon defaults on its sovereign debt in March, the currency loses up to 80% of its value and poverty rates soar.

Talks with the International Monetary Fund flounder as the main parties and influential banks resist a financial recovery plan.

On Aug. 4, a vast quantity of ammonium nitrate explodes at Beirut port, killing more than 200 people, wounding 6,000 and devastating swathes of Beirut.

The Diab cabinet quits and Hariri is designated to form a new government but the parties remain at odds over portfolios.

A U.N.-backed tribunal convicts a Hezbollah member of conspiring to kill Rafik al-Hariri 15 years after his death.

2021

The economic meltdown deepens. Hariri abandons his effort to form a government and trades blame with President Michel Aoun for the failure.

In August, the central bank declares it can no longer finance subsidies for fuel imports, prompting power outages and fuel shortages that lead to long queues and sporadic violence at filling stations.

A tanker explodes in the north, killing more than 20 people.

In September, after more than a year of rows over cabinet posts, a new cabinet is finally agreed led by Najib Mikati.

Its work is quickly derailed by tensions over the investigation into the Beirut port explosion. Hezbollah and its ally Amal demand the removal of investigating judge Tarek Bitar after he charges some of their allies.

The Shi'ite parties call a protest against the judge. Six of their followers are shot dead when violence erupts. Hezbollah blames the Lebanese Forces, a Christian party.

The probe into the port blast grinds to a halt, impeded by a flood of legal complaints against the judge by officials whom he has charged over the disaster.

Gulf states recall their ambassadors and Saudi Arabia bans all Lebanese imports in protest at comments by a pro-Hezbollah minister criticising Saudi Arabia over the war in Yemen.

2022

In January, the pound sinks to 34,000 against the dollar before being strengthened by central bank intervention.

The World Bank blasts the ruling class for "orchestrating" one of the world's worst national economic depressions due to their exploitative grip on resources.

In April, Lebanon reaches a draft agreement with the IMF for a possible $3 billion in support, dependent on Beirut enacting long-delayed reforms.

The ambassadors of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia return. Saudi Arabia and France announce a joint 30 million euro ($32 million) fund to boost health and other services in Lebanon.

Hariri announces he and his Future Movement will not run in a May parliamentary election.

($1 = 0.9471 euros)

(Writing by Tom Perry and William Maclean; Editing by Maya Gebeily, Mike Collett-White and Pravin Char)

Protest by other means: Lebanon activists run in election
 

Lawyer Verena El Amil is one of a growing number of independent candidates

 running in a parliamentary vote in crisis-hit Lebanon 

(AFP/Joseph EID)

 

Lebanese expats voted abroad in countries around the world, including the United Arab Emirates, 

ahead of the start of polling in the country

 (AFP/Karim SAHIB)

Activist, writer and director Lucien Bourjeily emerged as one of the key figures 

of the 2019 protest movement and is running for a seat in the legislature for the second time

(AFP/Joseph EID)

Hashem Osseiran
Sun, May 8, 2022

As a law student in late 2019, Verena El Amil joined mass street protests against Lebanon's political elite. Now she wants to fight them at the ballot box.

At age 25, she is one of a growing number of independent candidates running in a May 15 parliamentary vote in the crisis-torn country.

"We are going to fight," the young lawyer, dressed in a black leather jacket and combat boots, said at a coffee shop outside Beirut.

"The slogans we screamed during the protests are the ones we want to carry into campaigns and into parliament."

The vote will be the first major electoral test since a youth-led protest movement from October 2019 vented its rage at Lebanon's graft-tainted political class.

The revolutionary fervour has been sapped since by cascading crises, from a financial collapse and the pandemic to the 2020 Beirut port blast that killed more than 200 people.

While most of her fellow graduates have fled abroad, Amil honed her political skills in student activism and spent all her savings on the campaign.

"Running for parliamentary elections for me is a continuation," said Amil, one of the youngest candidates to stand.

"After the 2019 protests, we all grappled with defeat and the reality of a massive emigration wave.

"But in spite of this, we still need to try, and I am running for the elections to show that we are still trying."

- 'Election as protest' -

The number of independent candidates running against established parties has more than doubled since the last vote in 2018.

Beirut-based think tank the Policy Initiative said opposition and independent candidates make up 284 of the 718 hopefuls -- up from 124 four years ago.

They are running in 48 different electoral lists across Lebanon, including in peripheral regions where traditional leaders have seldom faced a challenge.

Also in the race this time is Lucien Bourjeily, an activist, writer and director who emerged as one of the key figures of the 2019 protest movement.

Running for a seat for the second time, Bourjeily said he sensed more engagement from the public this time around.

But the opposition is mainly gunning for accountability, not a major win, he said, urging voters to document any signs of electoral fraud.

"The way we documented people getting beaten and losing their eyes and getting killed on the street, we should document how votes will be stolen," he said.

"People should treat election day as a protest."

- 'Haphazard, disorganised' -

Even in a clean election, opposition candidates would face an uphill challenge, lacking the funds and campaign machines of the traditional parties.

Lebanon's electoral law is designed to benefit established players, and the opposition is far from united.

"You have competing opposition lists in most districts, and this is unacceptable," said Carmen Geha, a professor of public administration at the American University of Beirut.

"We needed hope, and hope would have come from a national campaign."

Voter turnout may be low, in part because high fuel prices deter travel to ancestral towns and villages where constituents are required to cast their vote.

An Oxfam report last month said only 54 percent of over 4,600 people surveyed said they intended to vote, a trend it blamed largely on widespread "disappointment and hopelessness".

Most of those planning to abstain cited a lack of promising candidates, while nearly half of those who plan to vote said they would choose an independent candidate, the British-based charity said.

Veteran activist Maher Abou Chakra, who ran briefly for the election before pulling out, criticised the opposition for lacking a coherent strategy to rock the establishment.

"Lebanon's political regime is hundreds of years old... and it is deeply entrenched," he said.

"You can't challenge it in a haphazard and disorganised way."

ho/fz

Fearing civil war amnesia, activists fight to preserve Beirut port silos

A family member of one of the victims of the 2020 Beirut port explosion reacts during a protest in Beirut

Families of the victims of the 2020 Beirut port explosion hold pictures during a protest near Beirut port




FILE PHOTO: Aftermath of Tuesday's blast in Beirut's port area



A family member of one of the victims of the 2020 Beirut port explosion holds a picture during a protest in Beirut



FILE PHOTO: Site of Tuesday's blast, at Beirut's port area

By Timour Azhari
April 13, 2022

BEIRUT (Reuters) - Families of victims of the 2020 Beirut port blast are pressuring Lebanon's government to keep its silos as a memorial, arguing the move would be a powerful acknowledgement of suffering in a country still struggling to come to terms with years of war and strife.

Ghassan Hasrouty worked at the towering white grain silos for nearly four decades - even through Lebanon's 15-year civil war, when he would tell his wife he felt protected by the thick walls of the storage facility.

"He used to tell my mum, 'I'm scared for you (at home), not for me because there is nothing, no shrapnel, that can harm the silos... nothing can bring them down," Hasrouty's daughter Tatiana recalled.

On August 4, 2020, Ghassan was working late when a massive chemical blast at the port ended his life and those of at least 215 others, and cleaved off part of the cylindrical towers.

As Lebanon marks the 47th anniversary of the start of the war on Wednesday, Ghassan's daughter and other relatives of those killed in the blast are fighting government plans to demolish the disembowelled silos.

Lebanese officials say the ruined silos should make way for new ones, the proposed move gaining momentum amid projections of global grains shortages due to Russia's war in Ukraine.

But activists and bereaved families say the columns, which stand like a great tombstone at Beirut's northern entrance, should stay as a monument - at least until an investigation into the blast can serve justice in a country accustomed to moving on from violence without accountability.

"In Lebanon we got used to the fact that something happens, and then they bring us something bigger and more intense than that, and we forget," Hasrouty said.

"They (politicians) work so that we wake up every day with new fears and new worries, and that's why I say they (the silos) should remain, because maybe people pass by them and recall: 'people really died here'".

'LIVING WITNESS TO THEIR CRIMES'

The probe into the blast, one of the biggest non-nuclear explosions ever recorded, has faced pushback from a political system installed at the end of the 1975-1990 civil war, when an amnesty was issued for warlords who gained government seats.

The war left some 100,000 dead and 17,000 are still missing - but is left out of school curricula and Beirut's most damaged areas were rebuilt with no public monuments. Historians say that has led to a collective amnesia about the war - something the families of blast victims are desperate to avoid.

"We all grew up with the civil war and remember how the rockets would fly above our heads. The Lebanese people forgot it because it was erased, because, simply, they reconstructed everything," Rima Zahed, whose brother Amin died in the blast, told Reuters.

Zahed has since helped organise protests in support of the investigation and of the silos' preservation. "Now we need the silos as the living witness to their crimes," she told Reuters.

Lebanon's government says it has other priorities.

'COLD HEART, COLD MIND'

Culture Minister Mohamed Mortada told Reuters the Cabinet had decided to demolish the silos and rebuild new ones based on a "purely economic assessment" of Lebanon's food security needs.

Lebanon needs more wheat storage to cope with global grains shortages resulting from the Russian war in Ukraine, from where Lebanon imports most of its wheat, officials say.

Mortada said the building could not be renovated for technical and sanitary reasons, so it had to be destroyed.

While the minister has put the silos on a list of heritage buildings, he noted the protected status could be removed if an alternative is found.

"What satisfies the families of victims or does not satisfy the families of victims, despite its importance, is not what's asked of the culture minister. What's asked of the culture minister is to approach it with a cold heart and cold mind. Is it tied to history or not?" he said.

Urban activist Soha Mneimneh said the move to destroy the silos amounted to "the erasure of a crime scene."

An engineers syndicate of which she is a member has commissioned a report on the silos to study the feasibility of renovating them. Mneimneh said they should be reinforced "so they stay in peoples' collective memory, so it is not repeated."

For Tatiana Hasrouty, the silos evoke painful memories - but are also a symbol of strength.

"I think now after he died there, the silos, some standing and some destroyed, symbolize for our family that (despite) everything that happened to us and all the sadness we have experienced, our family is still standing, steadfast, as if nothing can shake it."

(Reporting by Timour Azhari; Editing by Maya Gebeily, William Maclean)

Impacts of Ukraine conflict on food security already being felt in the Near East North Africa region and will quickly spread, warns IFAD

17 March 2022

© WFP

Rome, 17 March 2022 – As the war continues to rage in Ukraine, impacts of rising food prices and shortages of staple crops are already being felt in the Near East and North Africa region and spreading to the world’s most vulnerable countries, including in the Horn of Africa, with poorest people at greatest risk, warned the UN’s International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) today. This comes amidst mounting concerns by the international community that the ongoing conflict will escalate global hunger and poverty.

A quarter of global wheat exports come from Russia and Ukraine. Forty percent of wheat and corn from Ukraine go to the Middle East and Africa, which are already grappling with hunger issues, and where further food shortages or price increases risk pushing millions more people into poverty. Russia is also the world’s largest fertilizer producer. Even before the conflict, spikes in fertilizer prices last year contributed to a rise in food prices by about 30 percent. IFAD’s analysis looks at the impact that the war will have on already poor small-scale producers and rural communities.

“I am deeply concerned that the violent conflict in Ukraine, already a catastrophe for those directly involved, will also be a tragedy for the world’s poorest people living in rural areas who cannot absorb the price hikes of staple foods and farming inputs that will result from disruptions to global trade,” said Gilbert F. Houngbo, President of IFAD. “We are already seeing price hikes and this could cause an escalation of hunger and poverty with dire implications for global stability.”

IFAD’s analysis shows that price increases in staple foods, fuel and fertilizer and other ripple effects of the conflict are having a dire impact on the poorest rural communities. For example:
In Somalia, where an estimated 3.8 million people are already severely food insecure, the costs of electricity and transportation have spiked due to fuel price increases. This has a disproportionate impact on poor small-scale farmers and pastoralists who, in the face of erratic rainfall and an ongoing drought, rely on irrigation-fed agriculture powered by small diesel engines for their survival.
In Egypt, prices of wheat and sunflower oil have escalated due to Egypt’s reliance on Russia and Ukraine for 85 percent of its wheat supply and 73 percent of its sunflower oil.
In Lebanon, 22 percent of families are food insecure and food shortages or further price hikes will exacerbate an already desperate situation. The country imports up to 80 percent of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, but can only store about one month’s worth of the crop at a time due to the blast in Beirut’s port in 2020 that destroyed the country’s major grain silos.
Central Asian countries that rely on remittances sent home by migrant workers in Russia have been hit hard by the devaluation of the Russian ruble. In Kyrgyzstan, for example, remittances make up more than 31 percent of the GDP, the majority of which comes from Russia. Remittances are crucial for migrants’ families in rural areas to access food, education and other necessities.

IFAD’s experts stress that small-scale producers are already reeling from the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, droughts, cyclones and other natural disasters. Their incomes are expected to be affected by the rising cost of inputs, reduced food supplies and disrupted markets. This is also likely to have devastating and long-term impacts on their nutrition and food security.

IFAD is working closely with governments, rural communities and other partners and exploring ways to step up global support to the regions most affected, including building on its Facility for Refugees, Migrants, Forced Displacement and Rural Stability (FARMS), which supports agricultural livelihood opportunities for refugees and host communities. It is also intensifying its work to reduce post-harvest losses, improve storage and strengthen local and regional food markets.

“IFAD is committed to increasing the resilience of the world’s poorest rural people who are critical for producing a third of the world’s food. We must do all we can to ensure they have the resources to keep producing food and be protected from additional shocks,” said Houngbo. “In the short-term, however, it will be difficult to mitigate the global impacts of this crisis. I join the UN Secretary-General’s call to end the conflict now and restore peace. It is the only solution to avert global catastrophe.”

IFAD’s experience during previous food crises shows that interventions such as stabilising local market systems, cash transfers, strengthening remittances, setting up savings and loans groups, training and subsidies for agricultural enterprises, and value chain investments (including infrastructure, support for microfinance institutions, aggregation services that link farmers to markets) are effective in building resilience and reducing the impact of shocks. IFAD will draw on this experience and its unique expertise as an International Financial Institution and UN rural development agency to guide its response to the current crisis.

Press release No.: IFAD/11/2022

IFAD invests in rural people, empowering them to reduce poverty, increase food security, improve nutrition and strengthen resilience. Since 1978, we have provided US$23.2 billion in grants and low-interest loans to projects that have reached an estimated 518 million people. IFAD is an international financial institution and a United Nations specialized agency based in Rome – the United Nations food and agriculture hub.

A wide range of photographs of IFAD’s work in rural communities are available for download from its Image Bank.

Lebanese youths abandon education as crisis bites

Author of the article:
Reuters
Laila Bassam and Aidan Lewis
Publishing date: Mar 13, 2022 • 

BEIRUT — Before Lebanon’s devastating financial crisis struck, Faraj Faraj thought university could set him on a path out of a cramped family home in a poor area of Beirut and towards financial independence.

Instead, like increasing numbers of Lebanon’s young people, soaring costs forced the 19-year-old to drop out of studying just over a year ago, before he had finished secondary school.

“I don’t have family who can help me complete my education, and there’s no work,” he said, adding that even though he was at a state school, the cost of transport had become hard to bear.

U.N. research published in January showed that 30% of those aged 15-24 in Lebanon had dropped out of education. More young people are skipping meals and cutting back on health care, the survey showed.

Faraj, his parents, two unemployed brothers and two younger sisters who are still in school sleep between two rooms in a small apartment in Beirut’s Borj Hammoud, a neighborhood with narrow, crowded streets that was damaged by a massive explosion at the city’s port in 2020.

The coronavirus pandemic and the port blast, which still scars Beirut’s seafront, deepened what the World Bank has described as one of the worst economic collapses since the mid-19th century.

Though an elite earning salaries in dollars still throngs bars and cafes in upscale neighborhoods, poverty has risen to 80% and many struggle to afford meals and medicines.

“In the past we could buy things, even though there were difficulties,” said Faraj. “Now with the crisis affecting us more, it’s just food and drink.”

BRAIN DRAIN

Faraj is training to become a hairdresser in a program supported by U.N. children’s agency UNICEF, which aims to help young Lebanese facing soaring unemployment and wages of around $2 per day for those who can find work.

“Once a young person drops out of school at the age of 13, 14, 15, it’s really difficult to get them back into school, and so they enter into a very precarious job market with a serious lack of education and skills,” said Alexandre Schein, head of UNICEF’s youth section in Lebanon.

“The implications are that the skills that are required to rebuild Lebanon and get it out of the crisis won’t exist in the country.”

U.N. and government data also shows a drop in spending on education and in school enrolment for children under 15, as well as a rise in child labor.

Some families have shifted from private to state schools, but those struggled to provide distance learning when the pandemic broke out and were hit by stoppages and strikes over teachers’ low wages after reopening.

Many school and university teaching staff have left their jobs or the country, joining an accelerating brain drain.

The problems are tied to the country’s wider political and economic crisis, Education Minister Abbas el-Halabi said.

“Lebanese youth are gradually losing faith in continuing to live in Lebanon,” he told Reuters.

“It’s true that we’ve seen dropping out or abandonment or a distancing from schools. There are many families who no longer consider education important, but there is also great interest from some Lebanese, since this is the only weapon that they can give their children.”

 (Writing by Aidan Lewis; Editing by Alison Williams)

UKRAINE WHEAT BASKET OF THE WORLD
Arabs fear for wheat supplies after Russia invades Ukraine




Wheat groats are milled during the preparation of bulgur in the Lebanese town of Marjayoun (AFP/JOSEPH EID)

Sarah Benhaida
Sat, February 26, 2022

Russia's invasion of Ukraine could mean less bread on the table in Egypt, Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere in the Arab world where millions already struggle to survive.

The region is heavily dependent on wheat supplies from the two countries which are now at war, and any shortages of the staple food have potential to bring unrest.

If those supplies are disrupted, "the Ukraine crisis could trigger renewed protests and instability" in several Middle East and North Africa countries, the Washington-based Middle East Institute said.

The generals now ruling in Khartoum after an October coup have not forgotten: In 2019 one of their own, Field Marshall Omar al-Bashir, Sudan's longtime autocrat, was toppled by his military under pressure from mass demonstrations triggered by a tripling of the bread price.

Sudan is already facing regular anti-coup protests but seems to have taken the initiative to avoid demonstrations over bread.

When Russia's invasion began on Thursday, the second-highest figure in Sudan's ruling Sovereign Council was in Moscow to discuss trade ties.

Bread is already a luxury for millions in Yemen, where a seven-year war has pushed the country to the brink of famine.

"Most people can barely afford the basic foods," and the war in Ukraine will only "make things worse", Walid Salah, 35, a civil servant in the rebel-held capital Sanaa, told AFP.

Russia is the world's top wheat exporter and Ukraine the fourth, according to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture.

Moscow's invasion pushed the wheat price far above its previous record high in European trading to 344 euros ($384) a tonne on Thursday.

David Beasley, the World Food Programme's executive director, said the Ukraine-Russia area provides half the agency's grains. The war, he said, "is going to have a dramatic impact".

- 'Supplies won't last' -

WFP says 12.4 million people in conflict-ravaged Syria are also struggling with food insecurity.

Before its civil war began in 2011, Syria produced enough wheat to feed its population but harvests then plunged and led to increased reliance on imports.

The Damascus regime is a staunch ally of Moscow which backed it militarily during the war.

"Syria imported some 1.5 million tonnes of wheat last year, largely from Russia," The Syria Report, an economic publication, said this month.

Damascus says it is now working to distribute the stocks to use them over two months.

Supplies in neighbouring Lebanon won't last that long.

The country is gripped by a financial crisis which has left more than 80 percent of the population in poverty, and a 2020 port explosion damaged large parts of Beirut including silos containing 45,000 tonnes of grain.

Lebanon's current stock, in addition to five ships from Ukraine waiting to be offloaded, "can only last for one month and a half", said Ahmad Hoteit, the representative of Lebanon's wheat importers.

Ukraine was the source of 80 percent of the 600,000 to 650,000 tonnes of wheat imported annually by Lebanon, which has only been able to store about a month's worth of wheat since the port blast, he told AFP.

The United States can be an alternate supplier but shipments could take up to 25 days instead of seven, Hoteit said.

In the Maghreb, where wheat is the basis for couscous as well as bread, Morocco's minister in charge of budget, Fouzi Lekjaa, told journalists the government would increase subsidies on flour to $400 million this year and stop charging import duties on wheat.

Nearby Tunisia, with heavy debts and limited currency reserves, doesn't have that luxury. In December, local media reported that ships delivering wheat had refused to unload their cargo as they had not been paid.

Tunisia relies on Ukrainian and Russian imports for 60 percent of its total wheat consumption, according to agriculture ministry expert Abdelhalim Gasmi. He said current stocks are sufficient until June.

- 'Bread riots' -

Neighbouring Algeria, which says it has a six-month supply, is Africa's second-largest wheat consumer and the world's fifth-largest cereals importer.

Egypt imports the most wheat in the world and is Russia's second-largest customer. It bought 3.5 million tonnes in mid-January, according to S&P Global.

The Arab world's most populous country has started to buy elsewhere, particularly Romania, but 80 percent of its imports have come from Russia and Ukraine.

Egypt still has nine months of stock to feed its more than 100 million people, government spokesman Nader Saad said. But he added: "We will no longer be able to buy at the price before the crisis."

That is an ominous sign for the 70 percent of the population who receive five subsidised breads a day.

The weight of the subsidised round food was reduced in 2020 and now the government is considering raising the price -- fixed at five piastres (0.3 cents) for the past three decades -- to get closer to the production cost.

When then-president Anwar Sadat tried to drop the subsidy on bread in January 1977 "bread riots" erupted. They stopped when he cancelled the increase.

burs-sbh/it/dv

Rights group slams Lebanon for "flawed" murder probes

Layal ABOU RAHAL
Thu, 3 February 2022

An undated picture of Lokman Slim, whose unsolved murder is among those pointing to the "dangerous weakness" of Lebanon's rule of law, Human Rights Watch said 

Human Rights Watch accused Lebanon on Thursday of "flawed" assassination probes and urged donors to review millions of dollars in aid to security forces in a country where crimes often go unpunished.

"The unsolved murders and shoddy homicide investigations are a reminder of the dangerous weakness of Lebanon's rule of law in the face of unaccountable elites and armed groups," Aya Majzoub of Human Rights Watch said.

Lebanon is gripped by political and economic dysfunction to the point that even investigations into the 2020 Beirut port blast which killed more than 200 people and ravaged entire neighbourhoods have yet to identify a single culprit.


The US-based watchdog reviewed preliminary investigations into the murders of four people since 2020, including Lokman Slim, an intellectual and outspoken critic of the Iran-backed Shiite Hezbollah movement.

Slim was kidnapped in southern Lebanon exactly a year ago and his body found the next day. His family said Hezbollah had threatened Slim several times, most notably in December 2019.

The three other victims are a retired colonel from the customs administration, an amateur military photographer and a bank employee.

Lebanese authorities have not identified suspects in any of the killings and failed to follow clear investigative leads, "even though the murders were committed either in proximity to residential and densely inhabited areas, in broad daylight," Human Rights Watch said.

In one case, the murder was even caught on camera.

Lawyers and relatives of the victims cited by the watchdog said the police only asked them "superficial" questions limited to "far-fetched potential personal motivations for the murders." They ignored leads potentially linking the victims' politically-sensitive work to their assassination.

The group urged authorities to open investigations into allegations of misconduct and gross negligence from officials dealing with the murder probes.

Donor countries, which have funnelled millions of dollars in assistance to Lebanon's security apparatus, should review their contributions "to ensure that they are not funding units engaged in the cover-up of sensitive murders," Majzoub said.

In a recent interview with AFP Slim's widow, Monika Borgmann, expressed doubts that the local investigation into his murder would ever yield results. That, she said, would be like "giving the green light to the killers, whoever they are, to continue."

There have been at least 220 assassinations and murder attempts since Lebanon's independence in 1943 until Slim's killing last year, according to Beirut-based consultancy firm Information International.

Investigations into these murders have rarely yielded results due to political interference or lack of evidence.

lar/aya/jmm/it

One year on, justice on hold for slain Lebanese activist Lokman Slim

AFP -


A year after the murder of Lebanese intellectual and Hezbollah critic Lokman Slim, his family is still searching for accountability in a country where crimes often go unpunished.

"We really need justice for Lokman," his widow Monika Borgmann told AFP from their home in the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut, days before the first anniversary of his killing.

If his murder goes unpunished, it would be like "giving the green light to the killers, whoever they are, to continue" their crimes, she said, amid stalled investigations into his murder.


© ANWAR AMRO

Lebanese activists hold placards bearing the portrait of Lokman Slim with the slogan in Arabic "zero fear", days after his killing in February 2021

A secular activist from a Shiite family, 58-year-old Slim was found dead in his car on February 4 last year, a day after his family reported him missing.

His body was found in southern Lebanon -- a stronghold of the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement -- but the culprits have yet to be identified.

An outspoken activist and a researcher passionate about documenting the civil war that raged from 1975-1990 in Lebanon, Slim was a divisive figure. His sway over foreign diplomats in Lebanon often sparked the ire of Hezbollah and its loyalists.


© HASAN TRAD

Lokman Slim, seen here in an undated photograph, was found dead in his car on February 4, 2021

In several televised interviews, Slim accused the group of taking Lebanon hostage on behalf of its Iranian patrons.

In one of his last TV appearances, he accused the Syrian regime of having links to the ammonium nitrate shipment that caused the catastrophic explosion at Beirut's port in August 2020.

Slim's family has received no updates from the authorities since investigations into his murder started.

This is not unusual for a country where even investigations into the Beirut port blast have yet to identify a single culprit -- a year and a half after the explosion destroyed swathes of the city.


© JOSEPH EID

Gonika Borgmann, widow of slain Lebanese activist Lokman Slim, stands by his grave on January 26

- 'Information-gathering' -

The judiciary is still working on gathering evidence from security agencies over Slim's murder, said a judicial source, explaining that investigations are still at an "information-gathering phase".

They are yet to reach any key conclusions because not all security agencies have provided investigators with the necessary information, the same source added.

Borgmann, Slim's widow, said that the family has been left in the dark.

"We don't really know where we are going," she said, expressing doubts over whether any progress will ever be made.

Slim's family has called for an independent, international probe into his murder. It is a demand that Borgmann said is within reach after United Nations experts last year called for a credible and impartial investigation.

"The government should consider requesting international technical assistance to investigate the killing of Mr. Slim," UN human rights experts said in March.

Lebanese politicians and media personalities have suspected Hezbollah's involvement in his murder, but Slim's family has never publicly accused the party of his killing.

"Of course, I have my opinion who is behind (the murder)," said Borgmann, a film director, originally from Germany.

"But for me it's not really enough to point the finger at anybody and... stop there," she added.

"We need proof and we need accountability," she said, expressing hopes his killers will be jailed.

Borgmann said Hezbollah had threatened Slim several times, most notably in December 2019.

A group of people attacked his home in the southern suburbs of Beirut, plastering Hezbollah slogans and messages on the walls, calling him a traitor and warning that his "time will come".

At the time, Slim said he would lay the blame squarely on the shoulders of the Shiite Hezbollah and Amal movements should anything happen to him or his family.

"Lokman said it himself," Borgmann said.

- 'Believe in justice' -

There have been at least 220 assassinations and murder attempts since Lebanon's independence in 1943 until Slim's killing last year, according to Beirut-based consultancy firm Information International.

Investigations into these murders have rarely yielded results due to political interference or lack of evidence.

After he was killed, Slim's family launched a foundation in his name that is devoted to studying political assassinations in Lebanon and in the region.

"Political assassinations played a major role in controlling political life in Arab societies," said Hana Jaber, the foundation's director.

They create "imaginary barriers... that deter societies from thinking freely or producing alternative political, societal and cultural projects".

As a result, the foundation created in Slim's honour will work to counter the culture of impunity around political assassinations and "break the isolation of those who are under threat", Jaber said.

For Borgmann, the foundation will serve to preserve Slim's legacy.

"The fight against the culture of impunity has always been at the centre of our work," she said.

"Now we need to do it without him, but for him."

lar/aya/jsa/pjm

Escaping slow death in Beirut, Lebanese embrace farm life

At 28, Thurayya left behind the Beirut neighbourhood where she was born and moved to the family farm, not because of environmental concerns but forced there by Lebanon's bruising crises.

© JOSEPH EID

Like many Lebanese, Thurayya has left the capital Beirut for life on the family farm to escape from an economic crisis, the covid pandemic and chronic power cuts in the city


© JOSEPH EID

Graphic designer Hassan Trad ploughs a field with his brother Abed in southern Lebanon where he has relocated to grow an agriculture business to supplement his salary

"Living in the city has become very miserable," she told AFP from the lush south Lebanon farmland planted with avocado trees that is now her home.

"The quiet violence of city life sucks you dry of energy, of money... It was just too much."

Lebanon's unprecedented economic crisis, the coronavirus pandemic and last year's massive and deadly explosion of chemical fertiliser at Beirut's port have dimmed the cosmopolitan appeal of the capital.

Many are turning their backs on urban life and heading for their ancestral towns and villages, where they can cut down on living costs and forge new connections with a long-forgotten agricultural inheritance.

In October, Thurayya moved to the two-story house built by her father in the south Lebanon village of Sinay.

She took the step only weeks after her Beirut landlord said she would quadruple the rent at a time when electricity generator bills and transportation costs were already spiralling beyond reach for most.


© JOSEPH EID

Experts say a long-standing trend towards rapid urbanisation in Lebanon seems to be slowing down partly due to diminishing job projects in major cities where the cost of living is 30 percent higher that in the countryside

"It didn't make sense for me to stay in Beirut," Thurayya said.

"It's pitch dark, there is garbage everywhere and you don't feel safe... it's hostile in its unfamiliarity."

- YouTube farming tips -

Now, when she's not working remotely for a non-profit group, Thurayya spends much of her time in her family's farmland, discovering how plants look when they need water and the feel of ripening fruit.

She has turned to YouTube to learn how to prune trees and pestered local farmers for tips on how to best tend to a plot she hopes to one day take over.

"We are about to plant the new season and that's what I'm really excited for," Thurayya said. "I want to follow the planting from seed to harvest and I want to be there for all of those steps."


© JOSEPH EID

A massive explosion of chemical fertiliser at the Beirut port killed more than 200 people and destroyed swathes of the Lebanese capital

In a country where no official census has been held since 1932, there is little data on the demographic shift to rural areas, which are largely underprivileged and underserved.

But a long-standing trend towards rapid urbanisation seems to be slowing partly due to diminishing job prospects in major cities, where the cost of living is 30 percent higher than in the countryside.

A spike last year in the number of construction permits outside Beirut suggest such a movement, according to Lebanon's Blominvest bank.

Information International, a consultancy firm, estimates that more than 55,000 people have relocated to rural areas.

UN-Habitat Lebanon said that some mayors and heads of unions of municipalities had also reported an increase in the number of people moving, although it said it had no data to verify or quantify these claims.

"The lack of rural development plans and the highly centralised nature of Lebanon are expected to ultimately deter a counter-urbanisation in the long run," said Tala Kammourieh of the agency's Urban Analysis and Policy Unit.


© -Lebanon is battling economic turmoil and the cash-strapped country has struggled to import enough fuel oil for electricity production

- 'Suffocation' of city life -

Another Beirut escapee, graphic designer Hassan Trad, was ploughing a craggy field near the southern village of Kfar Tibnit and said he now steers clear of the "suffocation" of city life.

"My return to the village is an escape from three crises," the 44-year-old said, scattering thyme seeds on a bed of soil.

He pointed to the country's economic collapse, the pandemic, and the so-called trash crisis that has long left festering piles of garbage strewn across the city.

Trad, a father-of-four who works remotely as a freelancer for a daily newspaper, started weaning away from the capital in 2016 but resettled full-time after Covid-19 and last year's portside blast.

Hassan said the cost of schooling his children is about half what it would be in the city but, more importantly, he can grow an agriculture business to supplement his salary.

"I took advantage of the crisis and grew closer to farming and working the land," he told AFP from one of his many plots. "I now have a deeper attachment to my village."

Writer and essayist Ibrahim Nehme, 35, who was severely wounded when the Beirut port blast ripped through his home, has sought solace in his family's north Lebanon village of Bechmizzine.

"An explosion that made me lose touch with my ground eventually led me to realise how much I am connected to my land," he wrote in a recent essay reflecting on the months he spent recovering there from his injuries.

In June, he left Beirut and rented a chalet by the sea, only a 20-minute drive away from his family's olive grove.

He is not yet ready to commit fully to village life but Nehme said he is growing to realise his role in safeguarding an agricultural legacy left to him by his forefathers.

"I am connected here, I am rooted," he said. "I have these olive trees, and one day I will have to take care of them."

ho/jmm/fz

AFP

Protesters break into Lebanese ministry as crisis deepens

 Children search for valuables in the garbage next to a market in Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, April 12, 2021. Lebanon's severe economic crisis that threw much of the population into poverty is dramatically affecting children leaving some go to bed hungry, lack good medial care and drop out of school to help their families, UNICEF, the U.N. children's agency said Tuesday, Nov. 23, 2021. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)


BEIRUT (AP) — A small group of protesters broke into a ministry building in Beirut early on Friday and removed a photo of the president from one of its main rooms, as the Lebanese pound hit a new low amid a worsening economic and political stalemate.

The protesters who entered the Ministry of Social Affairs said conditions in crisis-hit Lebanon have become unbearable as a result of the rapid economic collapse and ongoing crash of the pound, which reached 25,100 to the dollar. The previous record was 25,000.

Prices have been skyrocketing in recent weeks as the government lifted subsidies on fuel and some medicines, making them out of reach for many in Lebanon. Some three quarters of the population of 6 million, including a million Syrian refugees, now live in poverty. The minimum monthly wage is now worth about $27.

Protesters have blamed the ministry for sluggishness in issuing ration cards that are supposed to give poor families monthly financial aid.

The protesters broke into the meeting room at the ministry and turned a framed picture of President Michel Aoun upside down before removing it. They replaced it with a banner in Arabic that read “revolutionaries of October 17.”

The protesters were referring to the start of nationwide protests in October 2019 against the country’s ruling class. They are blamed for decades of corruption and mismanagement that threw the small nation into the worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history.

“Those who usurped public money cannot conduct reforms,” shouted one of the protesters before leaving the building following police intervention. “We have hit rock bottom. Things cannot get worse.”

The crisis has been made worse by the coronavirus and the August 2020 explosion in Beirut’s port that killed 216 people, injured more than 6,000 and destroyed parts of the capital.

The Cabinet, formed in September after a 13-month vacuum, has not met in more than six weeks amid deep divisions between rival groups over the judge leading the investigation into the port blast. Comments by a government minister that triggered a diplomatic row with oil-rich Gulf Arab nations have added to the acrimony.

In other parts of the country, protesters placed posters that read “the mafia that destroyed the Lebanese pound” outside some branches of local banks, the state-run National News Agency said.

For the past two years, local lenders have imposed informal capital controls that prevent many people from accessing their savings.

 

Arab states admit to Syria's victory in war: Nasrallah

TEHRAN, Nov. 11 (MNA) – Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah said Thur. that the rapprochement of Arab states to the Syrian government shows that they have been defeated in their war on the country.

According to Al-Manar, Hezbollah marks Martyr’s Day yearly on November eleventh. The day is considered an opportunity to recall the great martyr, Ahmad Kassir, who blew himself up in November 11, 1982, targeting the center of the Israeli military governor in the southern city of Tyre, and killing dozens of Zionist officers and soldiers.

At the start of his speech, Nasrallah hailed the role the martyrs played in the history of Islam and Resistance.

"Hezbollah has selected November 11 as Martyr Day because it refers to the date of the first martyrdom bombing operation carried out by the martyr Ahmad Kassir against the Israeli occupation forces in 1982," he said.

"Our Islamic values call on us to glorify the martyrs," he said.

The Hezbollah leader pointed to the visit of officials of Arab states to Damascus and said, "In recent days, it has been reported that the leaders of several Arab countries have contacted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad... An Emirati official traveled to Syria. These are achieved by the martyrs."

According to Nasrallah, Hezbollah martyrs liberated the prisoners as well as the occupied territories, deterred the enemy’s aggression, prevented the civil war in Lebanon, and defeated the takfiri terror in Syria.

Israeli enemy is periodically carrying out military drills for fear of Hezbollah capabilities, he said, adding that ‘Israel’ is worried about Hezbollah infantry’s ability to invade Galilee and fire precision-guided missiles.

He pointed to the US plots to create unrest in Lebanon and said that Hezbollah has foiled the US attempt to fully dominate Lebanon.

However, he said that Washington has influence over the Lebanese political factions while the country is standing on its feet and is still an independent entity thanks to Hezbollah's efforts.

Hezbollah will rely on the martyrs’ legacy and military power to deter any Israeli aggression on Lebanon, Nasrallah added.

Referring to the current dispute with Saudi Arabia, the Hezbollah leader said that he disagreed with the resignation of the Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi.

He noted that Riyadh has problems with Hezbollah rather than the information minister.

Nasrallah added that Saudi Arabia's demands from Lebanon will not end after the resignation of Kordahi.

"The crisis that Saudi Arabia has started is part of a struggle against the Resistance," he said.

Nasrallah added that Riyadh serves the interest of Washington and Tel Aviv in Lebanon. 

He rejected Saudi Arabia's claim on Hezbollah's control over Lebanon, while he acknowledged that the Resistance group is the biggest political force in the country.

He pointed to the Saudi war on Yemen, saying that "Saudi Arabia has spent billions of dollars in Yemen over the past seven years. Today, the Saudis know very well that the defeat in Ma'rib would mean their total defeat in Yemen."

He also called for an impartial investigation on the blast in Beirut Port.

KI/Live

Beirut port blast investigator forced to suspend probe for third time

The August 4, 2020, blast at the Beirut port killed more than 200 people, injured thousands and destroyed swathes of the Lebanese capital. © Dylan Collins, AFP/File

Issued on: 04/11/2021 

Text by: NEWS WIRES

The Lebanese judge leading investigations into last year's Beirut port blast was forced to stop work Thursday over a lawsuit filed by an ex-minister he had summoned for interrogation.

Tarek Bitar was informed of a "lawsuit submitted by former public works minister Youssef Fenianos... which forced him to pause the probe until a ruling is issued", a court official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

It is the third time that Bitar has had to suspend his probe in the face of lawsuits filed by former ministers suspected of negligence over the August 2020 explosion.

The total number of lawsuits filed against Bitar now stands at 15, according to judicial sources.

The latest comes amid a campaign led by the powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah demanding Bitar's replacement over allegations of "bias" that have been widely dismissed by rights groups and families of blast victims.

The Shiite group's representatives in government have said they will boycott cabinet meetings until it takes a clear stand on demands to replace Bitar.

The cabinet, as a result, has failed to hold a single session in three weeks.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Thursday condemned attempts to force his government to intervene in judicial affairs, in a thinly veiled criticism of Hezbollah.

"We have tried as much as possible to keep the Beirut blast probe under the purview of the judiciary and we have rejected any kind of (political) interference," Mikati told a news conference.

Human rights groups and victims' relatives fear the repeated suspensions are a prelude to Bitar's removal, which would further derail the official inquiry into Lebanon's worst peace-time tragedy.

Bitar's predecessor, Fadi Sawan, was forced to suspend his probe for the same reason before he was finally removed in February, in a move widely condemned as political interference.

(AFP)

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M 

US sanctions Lebanese MP, tycoons for 'profiting from pervasive corruption'

Lebanon's former Major General Jamil Sayyed gestures in the court room at the special international tribunal for Lebanon in Leidschendam on January 14, 2011. 

© Jerry Lampen, AFP

Issued on: 28/10/2021 - 
Text by: NEWS WIRES

The US Treasury slapped sanctions on prominent Lebanese tycoons Jihad al-Arab and Dany Khoury and lawmaker Jamil Sayyed for allegedly benefitting from corruption and adding to the breakdown of the rule of law in the country.

The three "have each personally profited from the pervasive corruption and cronyism in Lebanon, enriching themselves at the expense of the Lebanese people and state institutions," the US Treasury said.

"While the Lebanese people face daily struggles to access basic public goods, including medicine, electricity, and food, during a historic and devastating economic crisis, members of the Lebanese political class and their cronies operate with impunity to enrich themselves and hide their wealth," the Treasury said in a statement.

The Treasury said al-Arab has used close political connections and kickback payments to win important public contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars in which he overbilled the government and, in an emergency deal to address Beirut's 2016 garbage crisis, did not resolve the problem.

The Treasury also said he won two government contracts worth $200 million after brokering a political deal in 2014 ahead of elections.

>> Hezbollah’s campaign against Beirut blast judge paralyses Lebanon’s government

Khoury, it said, used his ties to already-sanctioned politician Gibran Bassil to reap lucrative contracts "while failing to meaningfully fulfill the terms of those contracts."

"Khoury and his company have been accused of dumping toxic waste and refuse into the Mediterranean Sea, poisoning fisheries, and polluting Lebanon's beaches, all while failing to remedy the garbage crisis," it said.

Sayyed, meanwhile, was accused of skirting banking regulations to move $120 million offshore.

"During the 2019 protests, when demonstrators protested outside his home demanding his resignation and calling him corrupt, Sayyed called on officials to shoot and kill the protesters," the Treasury said.

The sanctions order the seizure of any property the three have under US jurisdiction, whether bank accounts or real estate or other assets.

>> Who is out to get the judge in charge of Lebanon port explosion probe?

They also forbid US individuals or businesses -- including financial institutions with a US presence -- from transactions with the three, effectively restricting their access to global financial and trade networks.

The Treasury justified the sanctions by saying that corruption has undermined the rule of law and governance in Lebanon, which is currently mired in a deep political and economic crisis.

Its currency has plummeted in value and people are struggling day to day, their savings locked in banks and inflation soaring. Even the central bank has come under suspicion for corruption that has fed the crisis.

Washington and global organizations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are pressing for across-the-board reforms, but political wrangling continues to stall progress.

In June, the World Bank said Lebanon's economic collapse is likely to rank among the world's worst financial crises since the mid-19th century.

>> Lebanon’s political class ‘squabbling over a field of ruins’ as economic crisis rages

(AFP)

Beirut port explosion probe: Lebanese PM facing 'Shakespearean dilemma'


Issued on: 19/10/2021 - 


A Shiite rally against port blast judge Tarek Bitar escalated into deadly clashes, turning parts of Beirut into a war zone and sparking memories of the 1975-1990 civil war. And so now the Lebanese people will have to choose, explains Joseph Bahout, IFI Director and Professor at American University of Beirut (AUB), 'between stability, peace, etc. which is something dear and valuable, and truth on the harbor explosion that have left, in fact, the city completely destroyed and people's minds completely destroyed.' Offering historical perspective, Professor Bahout adds, 'If you think of it historically and retrospectively, this is a choice that Lebanon is always confronting.' Both during the civil war, and following the assassination of Rafic Hariri, Lebanon 'had to confront this choice between truth and reconciliation, on the one hand, and stability on the other.' Despite assurances of Prime Minister Najib Mikati that the page will be turned, Professor Bahout warns that the prime minister is facing a 'Shakespearean dilemma.' And so, he fears that the government of Lebanon will ultimately follow the model of authoritarian regimes in the region by making 'the choice of preserving civil peace and squandering, and maybe dropping, the case of Judge Bitar and the entire inquiry on the port explosion.'

Lebanon elite united against probe seen as survival threat

Issued on: 19/10/2021 - 

Lebanese bury their dead after the official inquiry into last year's Beirut port explosion sparked bloodshed on the streets of the capital

 IBRAHIM AMRO AFP/File

Beirut (AFP)

They may often squabble but Lebanon's political parties seem united in rejecting an investigation into Beirut's massive port explosion that they fear could threaten their survival, analysts say.

The explosion of a huge stockpile of poorly stored fertiliser on the dockside on August 4, 2020 killed more than 210 people, wounded thousands and ravaged half the capital.

In the aftermath of mass protests in late 2019 demanding the ouster of the traditional ruling class, many said the disaster was just the latest example of official incompetence and corruption.

But months into a domestic investigation, no one has been held accountable.

Politicians have repeatedly obstructed the work of judge Tarek Bitar by refusing to show up for questioning, filing legal complaints against him or calling for his dismissal, which last week sparked deadly violence in the heart of Beirut.

Analyst Lina Khatib said hopes were fading of holding those responsible for the port blast accountable.

"The ruling class in Lebanon is in agreement about wanting the port probe to be abandoned and they will use all available means to derail it," said Khatib, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Chatham House think tank.

The country's powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah has spearheaded a campaign to remove Bitar, accusing him of political bias.

The debate over his future, which comes after the previous investigator was removed in February, has already triggered the postponement of one cabinet meeting despite the urgency of addressing Lebanon's acute economic crisis.

- 'Battle for the rule of law' -

Nadim Houry, executive director at the Arab Reform Initiative, said that the whole ruling class felt under threat in what he described as "an essential battle in Lebanon for rule of law".

Last week's bloodshed and the funerals of those killed brought armed militiamen onto the streets of Beirut in scenes reminiscent of Lebanon's 1975 to 1990 civil war

 IBRAHIM AMRO AFP/File

"A section of society has decided that they want to go all the way and ask for truth," but they face "a political class that is willing to use threats, use violence, use even launching into another civil war to prevent that quest for truth from leading to a result," he said.

It emerged after the port blast that officials had known that hundreds of tonnes of ammonium nitrate had for years been left to linger in a warehouse near residential neighbourhoods.

Families of the victims see in Bitar the only hope for justice in a country where impunity has long been the norm.

After the 1975 to 1990 civil war, Lebanon issued a broad amnesty that benefited the country's warlords, allowing many of them to become political leaders.

"Regardless of what Bitar finds, it's the idea itself that any of them can somehow be held accountable that they are resisting," Houry said.

Any success in the blast probe would set a precedent and unravel a "impunity regime" under which each party agrees not to pursue the other for its crimes, as long as it is not targeted itself.

Tensions came to a boil last week after a rally against Bitar organised by Hezbollah and its Shiite ally Amal descended into violence that killed seven of their supporters.

- 'Price too high' -

The sound of gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades trapped residents indoors for hours, reviving memories of the civil war.

The inquiry's chief, judge Tarek Bitar, has become a bugbear not just for the Shiite parties pushing for his replacement but for the whole political elite, analysts say - AFP/File

Hezbollah accused snipers of the Lebanese Forces, a Christian party, of causing the bloodshed, but the latter has denied this.

The army, meanwhile, is investigating a video circulated on social media that appears to show a soldier shooting at protesters.

"Hezbollah is increasingly acting as the praetorian guard of the regime that has come into place since the 1990s," Houry said.

The Iran-backed movement, the only one not to have disarmed after the civil war, is at least partly blacklisted by most Western governments but holds seats in parliament.

While political parties have publicly supported an investigation, analysts say they ultimately wish to protect their own interests.

"Lebanon's ruling class may be political opponents but they are united in profiteering from the system... and they therefore oppose any steps to reform it or to instil accountability within it," Khatib said.

A spokesman for the families of blast victims quit on Saturday, after many feared he had been intimidated into toeing the Hezbollah line and calling for Bitar to step down.

Ibrahim Hoteit, who lost his brother in the explosion, lives in a Shiite-majority neighbourhood.

The following day, many refrained from taking part in a protest to mark the second anniversary of the now-defunct 2019 protest movement, fearing further violence.

"Ultimately, the ruling class want to push the Lebanese to conclude that the price of accountability is too high," Khatib said.

© 2021 AFP

Social unrest threatens Mideast economic recovery: IMF

Issued on: 19/10/2021

A protester holds a flag during clashes with armed forces in Lebanon, whose economy is in a tailspin PATRICK BAZ AFP/File

Dubai (AFP)

The Middle East and North Africa is on track for a recovery, but rising social unrest is threatening the "fragile" progress of low-income economies, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

The MENA region, which includes Arab countries and Iran, saw real GDP growth shrink by 3.2 percent in 2020 due to weak oil prices and sweeping lockdowns to halt the spread of the coronavirus.

But with rapid vaccination campaigns, especially in oil-rich Gulf nations, the IMF predicted GDP growth would rise to 4.1 percent this year, up 0.1 of a percentage point from its last projection in April.

"The region is going through recovery in 2021. Since the beginning of the year, we see progress in the economic performance," said Jihad Azour, director for the Middle East and Central Asia at the IMF.

But "this recovery is not the same in all countries. It is uncertain and uneven because of the divergence in vaccination... and geopolitical developments", he told AFP.

The IMF said in a report that while the prospects for oil-exporting economies improved with higher oil prices, low-income and crisis-hit countries were witnessing "fragile" recoveries.

It warned of "a rise in social unrest" in 2021 that "could pick up further due to repeated infection waves, dire economic conditions, high unemployment and food prices".

Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan other countries have been witnessing protests in recent months by thousands of angry citizens demanding better jobs and services.

Unemployment increased in MENA last year by 1.4 percent to reach 11.6 percent, a rise exceeding that seen during the global financial crisis and the 2014-15 oil price shock, the IMF said.

- Increasing inequities -

The IMF warned of the longer-term risk of an uneven recovery, which could lead to a "permanent widening of existing wealth, income, and social gaps and, ultimately, weaker growth and less inclusive societies".

About seven million more people in the region are estimated to have entered extreme poverty during 2020-21 compared with pre-crisis projections, according to the IMF.

Meanwhile, inflation in the region is projected to increase to 12.9 percent in 2021 from 10.4 last year, with higher food and energy prices in some countries, before subsiding to 8.8 percent in 2022.

"Inequities are increasing. The low-skilled, the young, women, and migrant workers have been affected the most by the pandemic, as have smaller firms, particularly those in contact-sensitive sectors," said the report.

According to the international lender, the corporate sector has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, but smaller firms and those in "contact-sensitive sectors" are lagging behind.

"Fifteen to 25 percent of firms may need to be restructured or liquidated," it added.

In Lebanon, the continuing drop in the value of the currency has dashed hopes that the government formed last month can stem an economic crisis that the World Bank brands as one of the worst since the mid-19th century.

Nearly 80 percent of Lebanon's population lives below the poverty line.

"The Fund has already started technical discussions with the authorities... to develop what would be in fact that the framework within which the fund can help Lebanon," said Azour, a former Lebanese finance minister.

© 2021 AFP