One year on, justice on hold for slain Lebanese activist Lokman Slim

AFP -


A year after the murder of Lebanese intellectual and Hezbollah critic Lokman Slim, his family is still searching for accountability in a country where crimes often go unpunished.

"We really need justice for Lokman," his widow Monika Borgmann told AFP from their home in the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut, days before the first anniversary of his killing.

If his murder goes unpunished, it would be like "giving the green light to the killers, whoever they are, to continue" their crimes, she said, amid stalled investigations into his murder.


© ANWAR AMRO

Lebanese activists hold placards bearing the portrait of Lokman Slim with the slogan in Arabic "zero fear", days after his killing in February 2021

A secular activist from a Shiite family, 58-year-old Slim was found dead in his car on February 4 last year, a day after his family reported him missing.

His body was found in southern Lebanon -- a stronghold of the Iran-backed Hezbollah movement -- but the culprits have yet to be identified.

An outspoken activist and a researcher passionate about documenting the civil war that raged from 1975-1990 in Lebanon, Slim was a divisive figure. His sway over foreign diplomats in Lebanon often sparked the ire of Hezbollah and its loyalists.


© HASAN TRAD

Lokman Slim, seen here in an undated photograph, was found dead in his car on February 4, 2021

In several televised interviews, Slim accused the group of taking Lebanon hostage on behalf of its Iranian patrons.

In one of his last TV appearances, he accused the Syrian regime of having links to the ammonium nitrate shipment that caused the catastrophic explosion at Beirut's port in August 2020.

Slim's family has received no updates from the authorities since investigations into his murder started.

This is not unusual for a country where even investigations into the Beirut port blast have yet to identify a single culprit -- a year and a half after the explosion destroyed swathes of the city.


© JOSEPH EID

Gonika Borgmann, widow of slain Lebanese activist Lokman Slim, stands by his grave on January 26

- 'Information-gathering' -

The judiciary is still working on gathering evidence from security agencies over Slim's murder, said a judicial source, explaining that investigations are still at an "information-gathering phase".

They are yet to reach any key conclusions because not all security agencies have provided investigators with the necessary information, the same source added.

Borgmann, Slim's widow, said that the family has been left in the dark.

"We don't really know where we are going," she said, expressing doubts over whether any progress will ever be made.

Slim's family has called for an independent, international probe into his murder. It is a demand that Borgmann said is within reach after United Nations experts last year called for a credible and impartial investigation.

"The government should consider requesting international technical assistance to investigate the killing of Mr. Slim," UN human rights experts said in March.

Lebanese politicians and media personalities have suspected Hezbollah's involvement in his murder, but Slim's family has never publicly accused the party of his killing.

"Of course, I have my opinion who is behind (the murder)," said Borgmann, a film director, originally from Germany.

"But for me it's not really enough to point the finger at anybody and... stop there," she added.

"We need proof and we need accountability," she said, expressing hopes his killers will be jailed.

Borgmann said Hezbollah had threatened Slim several times, most notably in December 2019.

A group of people attacked his home in the southern suburbs of Beirut, plastering Hezbollah slogans and messages on the walls, calling him a traitor and warning that his "time will come".

At the time, Slim said he would lay the blame squarely on the shoulders of the Shiite Hezbollah and Amal movements should anything happen to him or his family.

"Lokman said it himself," Borgmann said.

- 'Believe in justice' -

There have been at least 220 assassinations and murder attempts since Lebanon's independence in 1943 until Slim's killing last year, according to Beirut-based consultancy firm Information International.

Investigations into these murders have rarely yielded results due to political interference or lack of evidence.

After he was killed, Slim's family launched a foundation in his name that is devoted to studying political assassinations in Lebanon and in the region.

"Political assassinations played a major role in controlling political life in Arab societies," said Hana Jaber, the foundation's director.

They create "imaginary barriers... that deter societies from thinking freely or producing alternative political, societal and cultural projects".

As a result, the foundation created in Slim's honour will work to counter the culture of impunity around political assassinations and "break the isolation of those who are under threat", Jaber said.

For Borgmann, the foundation will serve to preserve Slim's legacy.

"The fight against the culture of impunity has always been at the centre of our work," she said.

"Now we need to do it without him, but for him."

lar/aya/jsa/pjm

Escaping slow death in Beirut, Lebanese embrace farm life

At 28, Thurayya left behind the Beirut neighbourhood where she was born and moved to the family farm, not because of environmental concerns but forced there by Lebanon's bruising crises.

© JOSEPH EID

Like many Lebanese, Thurayya has left the capital Beirut for life on the family farm to escape from an economic crisis, the covid pandemic and chronic power cuts in the city


© JOSEPH EID

Graphic designer Hassan Trad ploughs a field with his brother Abed in southern Lebanon where he has relocated to grow an agriculture business to supplement his salary

"Living in the city has become very miserable," she told AFP from the lush south Lebanon farmland planted with avocado trees that is now her home.

"The quiet violence of city life sucks you dry of energy, of money... It was just too much."

Lebanon's unprecedented economic crisis, the coronavirus pandemic and last year's massive and deadly explosion of chemical fertiliser at Beirut's port have dimmed the cosmopolitan appeal of the capital.

Many are turning their backs on urban life and heading for their ancestral towns and villages, where they can cut down on living costs and forge new connections with a long-forgotten agricultural inheritance.

In October, Thurayya moved to the two-story house built by her father in the south Lebanon village of Sinay.

She took the step only weeks after her Beirut landlord said she would quadruple the rent at a time when electricity generator bills and transportation costs were already spiralling beyond reach for most.


© JOSEPH EID

Experts say a long-standing trend towards rapid urbanisation in Lebanon seems to be slowing down partly due to diminishing job projects in major cities where the cost of living is 30 percent higher that in the countryside

"It didn't make sense for me to stay in Beirut," Thurayya said.

"It's pitch dark, there is garbage everywhere and you don't feel safe... it's hostile in its unfamiliarity."

- YouTube farming tips -

Now, when she's not working remotely for a non-profit group, Thurayya spends much of her time in her family's farmland, discovering how plants look when they need water and the feel of ripening fruit.

She has turned to YouTube to learn how to prune trees and pestered local farmers for tips on how to best tend to a plot she hopes to one day take over.

"We are about to plant the new season and that's what I'm really excited for," Thurayya said. "I want to follow the planting from seed to harvest and I want to be there for all of those steps."


© JOSEPH EID

A massive explosion of chemical fertiliser at the Beirut port killed more than 200 people and destroyed swathes of the Lebanese capital

In a country where no official census has been held since 1932, there is little data on the demographic shift to rural areas, which are largely underprivileged and underserved.

But a long-standing trend towards rapid urbanisation seems to be slowing partly due to diminishing job prospects in major cities, where the cost of living is 30 percent higher than in the countryside.

A spike last year in the number of construction permits outside Beirut suggest such a movement, according to Lebanon's Blominvest bank.

Information International, a consultancy firm, estimates that more than 55,000 people have relocated to rural areas.

UN-Habitat Lebanon said that some mayors and heads of unions of municipalities had also reported an increase in the number of people moving, although it said it had no data to verify or quantify these claims.

"The lack of rural development plans and the highly centralised nature of Lebanon are expected to ultimately deter a counter-urbanisation in the long run," said Tala Kammourieh of the agency's Urban Analysis and Policy Unit.


© -Lebanon is battling economic turmoil and the cash-strapped country has struggled to import enough fuel oil for electricity production

- 'Suffocation' of city life -

Another Beirut escapee, graphic designer Hassan Trad, was ploughing a craggy field near the southern village of Kfar Tibnit and said he now steers clear of the "suffocation" of city life.

"My return to the village is an escape from three crises," the 44-year-old said, scattering thyme seeds on a bed of soil.

He pointed to the country's economic collapse, the pandemic, and the so-called trash crisis that has long left festering piles of garbage strewn across the city.

Trad, a father-of-four who works remotely as a freelancer for a daily newspaper, started weaning away from the capital in 2016 but resettled full-time after Covid-19 and last year's portside blast.

Hassan said the cost of schooling his children is about half what it would be in the city but, more importantly, he can grow an agriculture business to supplement his salary.

"I took advantage of the crisis and grew closer to farming and working the land," he told AFP from one of his many plots. "I now have a deeper attachment to my village."

Writer and essayist Ibrahim Nehme, 35, who was severely wounded when the Beirut port blast ripped through his home, has sought solace in his family's north Lebanon village of Bechmizzine.

"An explosion that made me lose touch with my ground eventually led me to realise how much I am connected to my land," he wrote in a recent essay reflecting on the months he spent recovering there from his injuries.

In June, he left Beirut and rented a chalet by the sea, only a 20-minute drive away from his family's olive grove.

He is not yet ready to commit fully to village life but Nehme said he is growing to realise his role in safeguarding an agricultural legacy left to him by his forefathers.

"I am connected here, I am rooted," he said. "I have these olive trees, and one day I will have to take care of them."

ho/jmm/fz

AFP

Protesters break into Lebanese ministry as crisis deepens

 Children search for valuables in the garbage next to a market in Beirut, Lebanon, Monday, April 12, 2021. Lebanon's severe economic crisis that threw much of the population into poverty is dramatically affecting children leaving some go to bed hungry, lack good medial care and drop out of school to help their families, UNICEF, the U.N. children's agency said Tuesday, Nov. 23, 2021. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)


BEIRUT (AP) — A small group of protesters broke into a ministry building in Beirut early on Friday and removed a photo of the president from one of its main rooms, as the Lebanese pound hit a new low amid a worsening economic and political stalemate.

The protesters who entered the Ministry of Social Affairs said conditions in crisis-hit Lebanon have become unbearable as a result of the rapid economic collapse and ongoing crash of the pound, which reached 25,100 to the dollar. The previous record was 25,000.

Prices have been skyrocketing in recent weeks as the government lifted subsidies on fuel and some medicines, making them out of reach for many in Lebanon. Some three quarters of the population of 6 million, including a million Syrian refugees, now live in poverty. The minimum monthly wage is now worth about $27.

Protesters have blamed the ministry for sluggishness in issuing ration cards that are supposed to give poor families monthly financial aid.

The protesters broke into the meeting room at the ministry and turned a framed picture of President Michel Aoun upside down before removing it. They replaced it with a banner in Arabic that read “revolutionaries of October 17.”

The protesters were referring to the start of nationwide protests in October 2019 against the country’s ruling class. They are blamed for decades of corruption and mismanagement that threw the small nation into the worst economic and financial crisis in its modern history.

“Those who usurped public money cannot conduct reforms,” shouted one of the protesters before leaving the building following police intervention. “We have hit rock bottom. Things cannot get worse.”

The crisis has been made worse by the coronavirus and the August 2020 explosion in Beirut’s port that killed 216 people, injured more than 6,000 and destroyed parts of the capital.

The Cabinet, formed in September after a 13-month vacuum, has not met in more than six weeks amid deep divisions between rival groups over the judge leading the investigation into the port blast. Comments by a government minister that triggered a diplomatic row with oil-rich Gulf Arab nations have added to the acrimony.

In other parts of the country, protesters placed posters that read “the mafia that destroyed the Lebanese pound” outside some branches of local banks, the state-run National News Agency said.

For the past two years, local lenders have imposed informal capital controls that prevent many people from accessing their savings.

 

Arab states admit to Syria's victory in war: Nasrallah

TEHRAN, Nov. 11 (MNA) – Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah said Thur. that the rapprochement of Arab states to the Syrian government shows that they have been defeated in their war on the country.

According to Al-Manar, Hezbollah marks Martyr’s Day yearly on November eleventh. The day is considered an opportunity to recall the great martyr, Ahmad Kassir, who blew himself up in November 11, 1982, targeting the center of the Israeli military governor in the southern city of Tyre, and killing dozens of Zionist officers and soldiers.

At the start of his speech, Nasrallah hailed the role the martyrs played in the history of Islam and Resistance.

"Hezbollah has selected November 11 as Martyr Day because it refers to the date of the first martyrdom bombing operation carried out by the martyr Ahmad Kassir against the Israeli occupation forces in 1982," he said.

"Our Islamic values call on us to glorify the martyrs," he said.

The Hezbollah leader pointed to the visit of officials of Arab states to Damascus and said, "In recent days, it has been reported that the leaders of several Arab countries have contacted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad... An Emirati official traveled to Syria. These are achieved by the martyrs."

According to Nasrallah, Hezbollah martyrs liberated the prisoners as well as the occupied territories, deterred the enemy’s aggression, prevented the civil war in Lebanon, and defeated the takfiri terror in Syria.

Israeli enemy is periodically carrying out military drills for fear of Hezbollah capabilities, he said, adding that ‘Israel’ is worried about Hezbollah infantry’s ability to invade Galilee and fire precision-guided missiles.

He pointed to the US plots to create unrest in Lebanon and said that Hezbollah has foiled the US attempt to fully dominate Lebanon.

However, he said that Washington has influence over the Lebanese political factions while the country is standing on its feet and is still an independent entity thanks to Hezbollah's efforts.

Hezbollah will rely on the martyrs’ legacy and military power to deter any Israeli aggression on Lebanon, Nasrallah added.

Referring to the current dispute with Saudi Arabia, the Hezbollah leader said that he disagreed with the resignation of the Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi.

He noted that Riyadh has problems with Hezbollah rather than the information minister.

Nasrallah added that Saudi Arabia's demands from Lebanon will not end after the resignation of Kordahi.

"The crisis that Saudi Arabia has started is part of a struggle against the Resistance," he said.

Nasrallah added that Riyadh serves the interest of Washington and Tel Aviv in Lebanon. 

He rejected Saudi Arabia's claim on Hezbollah's control over Lebanon, while he acknowledged that the Resistance group is the biggest political force in the country.

He pointed to the Saudi war on Yemen, saying that "Saudi Arabia has spent billions of dollars in Yemen over the past seven years. Today, the Saudis know very well that the defeat in Ma'rib would mean their total defeat in Yemen."

He also called for an impartial investigation on the blast in Beirut Port.

KI/Live

Beirut port blast investigator forced to suspend probe for third time

The August 4, 2020, blast at the Beirut port killed more than 200 people, injured thousands and destroyed swathes of the Lebanese capital. © Dylan Collins, AFP/File

Issued on: 04/11/2021 

Text by: NEWS WIRES

The Lebanese judge leading investigations into last year's Beirut port blast was forced to stop work Thursday over a lawsuit filed by an ex-minister he had summoned for interrogation.

Tarek Bitar was informed of a "lawsuit submitted by former public works minister Youssef Fenianos... which forced him to pause the probe until a ruling is issued", a court official told AFP on condition of anonymity.

It is the third time that Bitar has had to suspend his probe in the face of lawsuits filed by former ministers suspected of negligence over the August 2020 explosion.

The total number of lawsuits filed against Bitar now stands at 15, according to judicial sources.

The latest comes amid a campaign led by the powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah demanding Bitar's replacement over allegations of "bias" that have been widely dismissed by rights groups and families of blast victims.

The Shiite group's representatives in government have said they will boycott cabinet meetings until it takes a clear stand on demands to replace Bitar.

The cabinet, as a result, has failed to hold a single session in three weeks.

Prime Minister Najib Mikati on Thursday condemned attempts to force his government to intervene in judicial affairs, in a thinly veiled criticism of Hezbollah.

"We have tried as much as possible to keep the Beirut blast probe under the purview of the judiciary and we have rejected any kind of (political) interference," Mikati told a news conference.

Human rights groups and victims' relatives fear the repeated suspensions are a prelude to Bitar's removal, which would further derail the official inquiry into Lebanon's worst peace-time tragedy.

Bitar's predecessor, Fadi Sawan, was forced to suspend his probe for the same reason before he was finally removed in February, in a move widely condemned as political interference.

(AFP)

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M 

US sanctions Lebanese MP, tycoons for 'profiting from pervasive corruption'

Lebanon's former Major General Jamil Sayyed gestures in the court room at the special international tribunal for Lebanon in Leidschendam on January 14, 2011. 

© Jerry Lampen, AFP

Issued on: 28/10/2021 - 
Text by: NEWS WIRES

The US Treasury slapped sanctions on prominent Lebanese tycoons Jihad al-Arab and Dany Khoury and lawmaker Jamil Sayyed for allegedly benefitting from corruption and adding to the breakdown of the rule of law in the country.

The three "have each personally profited from the pervasive corruption and cronyism in Lebanon, enriching themselves at the expense of the Lebanese people and state institutions," the US Treasury said.

"While the Lebanese people face daily struggles to access basic public goods, including medicine, electricity, and food, during a historic and devastating economic crisis, members of the Lebanese political class and their cronies operate with impunity to enrich themselves and hide their wealth," the Treasury said in a statement.

The Treasury said al-Arab has used close political connections and kickback payments to win important public contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars in which he overbilled the government and, in an emergency deal to address Beirut's 2016 garbage crisis, did not resolve the problem.

The Treasury also said he won two government contracts worth $200 million after brokering a political deal in 2014 ahead of elections.

>> Hezbollah’s campaign against Beirut blast judge paralyses Lebanon’s government

Khoury, it said, used his ties to already-sanctioned politician Gibran Bassil to reap lucrative contracts "while failing to meaningfully fulfill the terms of those contracts."

"Khoury and his company have been accused of dumping toxic waste and refuse into the Mediterranean Sea, poisoning fisheries, and polluting Lebanon's beaches, all while failing to remedy the garbage crisis," it said.

Sayyed, meanwhile, was accused of skirting banking regulations to move $120 million offshore.

"During the 2019 protests, when demonstrators protested outside his home demanding his resignation and calling him corrupt, Sayyed called on officials to shoot and kill the protesters," the Treasury said.

The sanctions order the seizure of any property the three have under US jurisdiction, whether bank accounts or real estate or other assets.

>> Who is out to get the judge in charge of Lebanon port explosion probe?

They also forbid US individuals or businesses -- including financial institutions with a US presence -- from transactions with the three, effectively restricting their access to global financial and trade networks.

The Treasury justified the sanctions by saying that corruption has undermined the rule of law and governance in Lebanon, which is currently mired in a deep political and economic crisis.

Its currency has plummeted in value and people are struggling day to day, their savings locked in banks and inflation soaring. Even the central bank has come under suspicion for corruption that has fed the crisis.

Washington and global organizations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are pressing for across-the-board reforms, but political wrangling continues to stall progress.

In June, the World Bank said Lebanon's economic collapse is likely to rank among the world's worst financial crises since the mid-19th century.

>> Lebanon’s political class ‘squabbling over a field of ruins’ as economic crisis rages

(AFP)

Beirut port explosion probe: Lebanese PM facing 'Shakespearean dilemma'


Issued on: 19/10/2021 - 


A Shiite rally against port blast judge Tarek Bitar escalated into deadly clashes, turning parts of Beirut into a war zone and sparking memories of the 1975-1990 civil war. And so now the Lebanese people will have to choose, explains Joseph Bahout, IFI Director and Professor at American University of Beirut (AUB), 'between stability, peace, etc. which is something dear and valuable, and truth on the harbor explosion that have left, in fact, the city completely destroyed and people's minds completely destroyed.' Offering historical perspective, Professor Bahout adds, 'If you think of it historically and retrospectively, this is a choice that Lebanon is always confronting.' Both during the civil war, and following the assassination of Rafic Hariri, Lebanon 'had to confront this choice between truth and reconciliation, on the one hand, and stability on the other.' Despite assurances of Prime Minister Najib Mikati that the page will be turned, Professor Bahout warns that the prime minister is facing a 'Shakespearean dilemma.' And so, he fears that the government of Lebanon will ultimately follow the model of authoritarian regimes in the region by making 'the choice of preserving civil peace and squandering, and maybe dropping, the case of Judge Bitar and the entire inquiry on the port explosion.'

Lebanon elite united against probe seen as survival threat

Issued on: 19/10/2021 - 

Lebanese bury their dead after the official inquiry into last year's Beirut port explosion sparked bloodshed on the streets of the capital

 IBRAHIM AMRO AFP/File

Beirut (AFP)

They may often squabble but Lebanon's political parties seem united in rejecting an investigation into Beirut's massive port explosion that they fear could threaten their survival, analysts say.

The explosion of a huge stockpile of poorly stored fertiliser on the dockside on August 4, 2020 killed more than 210 people, wounded thousands and ravaged half the capital.

In the aftermath of mass protests in late 2019 demanding the ouster of the traditional ruling class, many said the disaster was just the latest example of official incompetence and corruption.

But months into a domestic investigation, no one has been held accountable.

Politicians have repeatedly obstructed the work of judge Tarek Bitar by refusing to show up for questioning, filing legal complaints against him or calling for his dismissal, which last week sparked deadly violence in the heart of Beirut.

Analyst Lina Khatib said hopes were fading of holding those responsible for the port blast accountable.

"The ruling class in Lebanon is in agreement about wanting the port probe to be abandoned and they will use all available means to derail it," said Khatib, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the Chatham House think tank.

The country's powerful Shiite movement Hezbollah has spearheaded a campaign to remove Bitar, accusing him of political bias.

The debate over his future, which comes after the previous investigator was removed in February, has already triggered the postponement of one cabinet meeting despite the urgency of addressing Lebanon's acute economic crisis.

- 'Battle for the rule of law' -

Nadim Houry, executive director at the Arab Reform Initiative, said that the whole ruling class felt under threat in what he described as "an essential battle in Lebanon for rule of law".

Last week's bloodshed and the funerals of those killed brought armed militiamen onto the streets of Beirut in scenes reminiscent of Lebanon's 1975 to 1990 civil war

 IBRAHIM AMRO AFP/File

"A section of society has decided that they want to go all the way and ask for truth," but they face "a political class that is willing to use threats, use violence, use even launching into another civil war to prevent that quest for truth from leading to a result," he said.

It emerged after the port blast that officials had known that hundreds of tonnes of ammonium nitrate had for years been left to linger in a warehouse near residential neighbourhoods.

Families of the victims see in Bitar the only hope for justice in a country where impunity has long been the norm.

After the 1975 to 1990 civil war, Lebanon issued a broad amnesty that benefited the country's warlords, allowing many of them to become political leaders.

"Regardless of what Bitar finds, it's the idea itself that any of them can somehow be held accountable that they are resisting," Houry said.

Any success in the blast probe would set a precedent and unravel a "impunity regime" under which each party agrees not to pursue the other for its crimes, as long as it is not targeted itself.

Tensions came to a boil last week after a rally against Bitar organised by Hezbollah and its Shiite ally Amal descended into violence that killed seven of their supporters.

- 'Price too high' -

The sound of gunfire and rocket-propelled grenades trapped residents indoors for hours, reviving memories of the civil war.

The inquiry's chief, judge Tarek Bitar, has become a bugbear not just for the Shiite parties pushing for his replacement but for the whole political elite, analysts say - AFP/File

Hezbollah accused snipers of the Lebanese Forces, a Christian party, of causing the bloodshed, but the latter has denied this.

The army, meanwhile, is investigating a video circulated on social media that appears to show a soldier shooting at protesters.

"Hezbollah is increasingly acting as the praetorian guard of the regime that has come into place since the 1990s," Houry said.

The Iran-backed movement, the only one not to have disarmed after the civil war, is at least partly blacklisted by most Western governments but holds seats in parliament.

While political parties have publicly supported an investigation, analysts say they ultimately wish to protect their own interests.

"Lebanon's ruling class may be political opponents but they are united in profiteering from the system... and they therefore oppose any steps to reform it or to instil accountability within it," Khatib said.

A spokesman for the families of blast victims quit on Saturday, after many feared he had been intimidated into toeing the Hezbollah line and calling for Bitar to step down.

Ibrahim Hoteit, who lost his brother in the explosion, lives in a Shiite-majority neighbourhood.

The following day, many refrained from taking part in a protest to mark the second anniversary of the now-defunct 2019 protest movement, fearing further violence.

"Ultimately, the ruling class want to push the Lebanese to conclude that the price of accountability is too high," Khatib said.

© 2021 AFP

Social unrest threatens Mideast economic recovery: IMF

Issued on: 19/10/2021

A protester holds a flag during clashes with armed forces in Lebanon, whose economy is in a tailspin PATRICK BAZ AFP/File

Dubai (AFP)

The Middle East and North Africa is on track for a recovery, but rising social unrest is threatening the "fragile" progress of low-income economies, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.

The MENA region, which includes Arab countries and Iran, saw real GDP growth shrink by 3.2 percent in 2020 due to weak oil prices and sweeping lockdowns to halt the spread of the coronavirus.

But with rapid vaccination campaigns, especially in oil-rich Gulf nations, the IMF predicted GDP growth would rise to 4.1 percent this year, up 0.1 of a percentage point from its last projection in April.

"The region is going through recovery in 2021. Since the beginning of the year, we see progress in the economic performance," said Jihad Azour, director for the Middle East and Central Asia at the IMF.

But "this recovery is not the same in all countries. It is uncertain and uneven because of the divergence in vaccination... and geopolitical developments", he told AFP.

The IMF said in a report that while the prospects for oil-exporting economies improved with higher oil prices, low-income and crisis-hit countries were witnessing "fragile" recoveries.

It warned of "a rise in social unrest" in 2021 that "could pick up further due to repeated infection waves, dire economic conditions, high unemployment and food prices".

Algeria, Iraq, Lebanon, Sudan other countries have been witnessing protests in recent months by thousands of angry citizens demanding better jobs and services.

Unemployment increased in MENA last year by 1.4 percent to reach 11.6 percent, a rise exceeding that seen during the global financial crisis and the 2014-15 oil price shock, the IMF said.

- Increasing inequities -

The IMF warned of the longer-term risk of an uneven recovery, which could lead to a "permanent widening of existing wealth, income, and social gaps and, ultimately, weaker growth and less inclusive societies".

About seven million more people in the region are estimated to have entered extreme poverty during 2020-21 compared with pre-crisis projections, according to the IMF.

Meanwhile, inflation in the region is projected to increase to 12.9 percent in 2021 from 10.4 last year, with higher food and energy prices in some countries, before subsiding to 8.8 percent in 2022.

"Inequities are increasing. The low-skilled, the young, women, and migrant workers have been affected the most by the pandemic, as have smaller firms, particularly those in contact-sensitive sectors," said the report.

According to the international lender, the corporate sector has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, but smaller firms and those in "contact-sensitive sectors" are lagging behind.

"Fifteen to 25 percent of firms may need to be restructured or liquidated," it added.

In Lebanon, the continuing drop in the value of the currency has dashed hopes that the government formed last month can stem an economic crisis that the World Bank brands as one of the worst since the mid-19th century.

Nearly 80 percent of Lebanon's population lives below the poverty line.

"The Fund has already started technical discussions with the authorities... to develop what would be in fact that the framework within which the fund can help Lebanon," said Azour, a former Lebanese finance minister.

© 2021 AFP

The Beirut blast probe needs to go on – and the world can help

Iranian-backed elements trying to scuttle the Beirut blast probe must be held to account

RAGHIDA DERGHAM
Published: October 16th 2021


Demonstrators wave Lebanese flags during protests near the site of a blast at Beirut's port area. Reuters

It is welcome news that Iran wants to restore ties with Saudi Arabia, and that the five permanent members of the UN Security Council are reaching out to Tehran to urge it to play a constructive role in ending the war in Yemen. The Saudi-Iranian talks in Iraq must also continue beyond the recent fourth round, with the aim being to begin a new chapter in Arab-Iran relations. One can only hope that these developments mark a serious and positive shift for the region.

However, the policy being pursued by the world’s major powers of separating the start-stop Vienna talks to strike a new nuclear deal with Iran from its destabilising activities in the Arab world will continue to have profound implications for the region. Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen are all run by weak governments, with Tehran-sponsored proxies wielding outsized influence in all three countries.

Last week’s parliamentary election in Iraq produced a surprising outcome, with Iran-backed political parties faring poorly – and, therefore, revealing the resentment ordinary Iraqis bear towards the neighbouring country’s influence in their affairs. The announcement of the results was followed by threats from Tehran’s allies to undo the results, thereby risking a security crisis in the country. It also proved that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in charge of Tehran’s overseas military activities – and which has been emboldened by the global powers’ decision to isolate the nuclear talks from Iran’s regional activities – does not have a stomach for genuine elections.

MORE FROM RAGHIDA DERGHAM
Why Russia is treading on tricky terrain in the Middle East

It is a similar story in Lebanon. Believing that it doesn't need to account for its destabilising activities there, Iran’s Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, is working hard to undermine the judiciary’s remit to deliver justice, in cases in which the group is implicated. It is currently trying to derail the investigation into last year’s Beirut Port explosion that left more than 200 people dead and over 7,000 injured. It has even threatened to topple the newly installed federal government if the latter refuses to give in to its diktats. Such an outcome could lead to street battles in a country that continues to have strong memories of its 15-year civil war, even though it ended more than three decades ago.

Hezbollah and the Amal Movement party, its ally in Parliament, are targeting Tarek Bitar, the judge probing the port blast by accusing him of politicising the investigation, simply because he has refused to tolerate their interference. Both parties have targeted other officials in similar fashion before, but this time, they are doing so feeling confident that no foreign power will do anything to intervene, beyond making denunciations.

It is increasingly evident that Hezbollah wants to shut down the probe into the August 2020 blast, which has a complicated backstory allegedly involving corrupt politicians, international shell companies and – most crucially – Hezbollah, which controlled the port at the time of the explosion.

Many questions over the explosion remain unanswered: was it an act of terror or simply an accident? Either way, how did it happen and who was responsible for it? The investigation has yet to arrive at any conclusions, because the judiciary has so far been hamstrung by Hezbollah’s politicking and, allegedly, due to a lack co-operation from other countries. Again, the question is why.

One theory is that illicit imports and exports were transiting through the Beirut Port to and from Syria and Iran. Could these products have included chemicals, spare parts, chips and electronics, or any sensitive material that Tehran would need for its nuclear and missile development programmes? Any evidence to back such claims would set not only the Vienna talks back but also the prospect of the US lifting its sanctions on Iran. Mr Bitar’s investigation, it seems, has been a source of great discomfort to Hezbollah and its patrons in Tehran.

What gives Hezbollah some of its clout, which it uses to try and push officials around, is its alliance with Lebanese President Michel Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement party. Mr Aoun currently finds himself having to choose between yielding to Hezbollah's demands and listening to his own political base, which seems increasingly impatient with the slow pace of the investigation.

Michel Aoun is not a victim who lacks agency. He can act in Lebanon’s interest

Mr Aoun, however, is not a victim who lacks agency. He can act in Lebanon’s interest by upholding the principle of the separation of powers. He must show wisdom and courage based on a profound reading of the outcome of his party’s alliance with Hezbollah, which has allowed the latter to seize key levers of the Lebanese state, put the presidency in an awkward spot, and threaten to pull down the government.

The president can take positive action by permitting Mr Bitar to question Maj Gen Tony Saliba, the head of state security. Prime Minister Najib Mikati, meanwhile, can ask the interior ministry to allow Mr Bitar to question Maj Gen Abbas Ibrahim, the head of general security. By doing so, both the president and prime minister can prove they are protectors of the judiciary and can, thereby, set a positive example for other leaders.

The current crisis in Lebanon is one involving the purportedly independent judiciary on the one side and the political class that considers itself above the law on the other. Internal matter or not, however, the international community must throw its support behind the judiciary. For, this branch of the government is in grave danger and its officials need international backing and protection. The US and the European powers, led by France, can move to deploy sanctions against those mutinying against the judiciary, as the Lebanese security services fail to act fearing political recriminations.

Failing to do so will give Hezbollah – with support from Tehran – and Amal the space to do what they can to foil the investigation. The fate of the court case could prove consequential for Lebanese politics and the stakes Hezbollah, and by extension Iran, will continue to have in it.

Raghida Dergham  is the founder and executive chairwoman of

the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National (UAE)

LEBANESE CHRISTIANS REMEMBER PORT BLAST