Months Before Albertans Were Told, Australian Miners Knew Plans to Axe Coal Policy

Investor presentations signalled the Kenney government aimed to open protected lands to open-pit mining.

Andrew Nikiforuk 29 Jan 2021 | TheTyee.ca
Tyee contributing editor Andrew Nikiforuk is an award-winning journalist whose books and articles focus on epidemics, the energy industry, nature and more.

Documents show Australian firms seeking open-pit coal mining leases in Alberta got signals protections to sensitive lands would be lifted, clearing the way. The public only found out months later, the day the Coal Policy was rescinded. Photo: Shutterstock.

Australian mining firms seeking to strip-mine metallurgical coal in Alberta’s eastern slopes of the Rocky Mountains knew well ahead of Albertans that the government was planning to rescind a law that stood in the way.

The 44-year-old Coal Policy, the result of extensive public consultation in the 1970s, kept 1.5 million hectares of Category 2 lands in the eastern slopes off limits from open-pit mining until the Jason Kenney government abruptly axed it in May of last year with no public consultation.

Alberta’s environment minister has denied that doing away with the Coal Policy “has opened up the eastern slopes for strip-mining.”

But a presentation prepared some time in 2019 by Capital Investment Partners, a firm that owns four private coal companies with extensive leases in the central Rockies, told investors: “Alberta government [is] in the process of changing the coal policy to allow more open-pit mining.”

This statement raises serious questions, said Katie Morrison, the conservation director of the Southern Alberta arm of the Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society, who found the presentation online.

“The CIP presentation really implies that long before Albertans heard about the cancellation of the Coal Policy, the government was consulting with coal companies at the request of coal companies and for the benefit of coal companies,” Morrison told The Tyee.

She added that the presentation “is very clear that the Australians understood the cancellation as a lifting of restrictions that allowed them to mine in areas they couldn’t access before.”

In fact, Alberta Energy Minister Sonya Savage has contradicted Environment Minister Jason Nixon by stating the removal of the Coal Policy was justified because it was an obstacle to development.

But on Jan. 18 of this year, Savage issued a statement saying the UCP government had heard the “passion” of citizens opposed to the granting of coal leases and had cancelled some recent ones.

Critics noted Savage’s statement left unchanged the vast majority of coal leases in the eastern slopes that now can be mined because of the axing of the Coal Policy. A former Alberta civil servant called Savage’s statement a misleading “trick.”

The Kenney government has retreated into silence in the face of growing outrage with both Savage and Nixon refusing to take questions from the media.

Hundreds of thousands of Albertans from towns, cities and municipal districts have protested the killing of the Coal Policy because they view open-pit mining in the province’s critical watersheds as a threat to their communities, economies and livelihoods downstream.

Australian firm backs six mining plays in Alberta

CIP, an Australian firm that manages and raises capital for new coal mines, owns six private and public companies with leases covering 1,000 square kilometres in mostly formerly Category 2 lands just south of Nordegg, Alta.

Mining on those leases would impact the quantity and purity of the Ram River, the Clearwater River and their tributaries, which provide water for the City of Edmonton.

They include Phalanx Coal, Oros Coal, Mersey Coal and Ram Coal. Another CIP firm, Jameson Resources Ltd., owns leases in British Columbia and Alberta’s Crowsnest Pass on Crown Mountain.

Two of CIP’s companies, Oros Coal and Mersey Coal, registered as Alberta companies in March 2020, two months before Kenney cancelled the 44-year-old policy.


CIP has offices in Perth, Australia, and Vancouver, B.C.

The Tyee asked CIP executives Gavin Argyle and Rahul Goel what government ministry informed them of the killing of the Coal Policy and when they received that information but has received no reply.

A slide from a presentation dated 2019 by the Australian firm Capital Investment Partners touting its metallurgical coal mining plans in the eastern slopes of Alberta’s Rocky Mountains apparently predicts the Kenney government’s rescinding of the Coal Policy in May of 2020.

While CIP investors knew well in advance of the Coal Policy’s eventual fate, Albertans were kept in the dark until the Kenney government announced the rescinding on a Friday afternoon ahead of the May long weekend in the early days of the pandemic.

Records show lobbyists for coal interests pressed hard to have the Coal Policy lifted, but no other members of the Alberta public were consulted in arriving at the decision.

CIP has played an active and prominent role in sparking an Australian coking coal invasion in the Canadian Rockies.

The firm introduced Riversdale Resources, for example, to the Grassy Mountain Coal Project which it purchased for $28 million in 2013.

The company later sold out to Australian billionaire Gina Rinehart in 2019 for approximately $700 million. That project is now under joint federal review but is regarded by Australian miners as critical to opening up the entire region to industrial open-pit mining.

Australian firms flagged Coal Policy as barrier to open-pit mining

CIP-owned Ram Coal pointedly described the Coal Policy as a clear obstacle to development of its 20,000 leased hectares in the headwaters of the North Saskatchewan River in a 2017 technical brief.

“The RAM property is within lands subject to the restrictions of Category 2. The Policy, as originally written, laid out that while it is possible to conduct coal exploration in Category 2 land, there is strict control by Albertan authorities. Mine development is limited to underground mining only, and even then requires approval that the surface effects of mining will be environmentally acceptable.” The report said that Ram Coal circumvented the “strict control” by gaining an exemption from the NDP government.

Atrum Coal, a Perth-based company with 260-square-kilometre leases on entirely Category 2 lands in the southern Rockies, also portrayed the Coal Policy as an obstacle to its aims.

A September 2019 presentation on its Elan Hard Coking Coal project, just north of the Crowsnest Pass in the headwaters of the Oldman River, highlights “intensive government engagement to the minister level over the past 3 months.”

The presentation, which repeatedly described the Kenney government as “engaged and supportive,” also expressed hope their multi-mine proposal would get an exemption from the Coal Policy as did the Ram Coal Aries Project from the NDP government.

In a slide titled “Strong government support” the company also describes “Alberta regulators” as “engaged and supportive” of its exploration activities in the eastern slopes. Those operations have scarred mountains with access roads and drilling holes, in preparation for open-pit mining that in some cases removes the tops of mountains.

One month before the Kenney government erased the Coal Policy, an April 2020 investor presentation expressed strong confidence the policy was soon to end.

One slide entitled “permitting dynamics” noted that “Category 2 zoning under Alberta legislation” was a clear obstacle to development.

But it added help was on the way: “Regular, proactive engagement with Alberta government has significantly increased confidence of such an approval, potentially as early as this year.”

The slide added “the Coal Association of Canada is also actively engaging the Alberta government on this general issue.”

Mining company hailed lifting of Coal Policy

Atrum Coal had an inside view of the Coal Association of Canada lobbying against the Coal Policy in 2019 because Max Wang, the managing director and CEO of Atrum Coal also served as vice chair of the Coal Association of Canada.

Wang resigned from both jobs in May, the month the Coal Policy was rescinded, and now describes himself as an “ex-mining executive.”

When the Kenney government finally carried through on its secret signals it would kill the Coal Policy, Atrum Coal was the first to offer its congratulations, saying doing away with the protective measures “represented a significant step forward.”



The Australian Invasion: Big Coal’s Plans for Alberta  READ MORE

Atrum explained in a May 18, 2020 press release: “Under the existing policy, Category 2 designation refers to land that is generally considered not to be appropriate for open-pit coal mining. This meant that any open-pit permitting approval” for its 260-square-kilometre Elan project “would have required an exemption be granted.”

Now Atrum Coal didn’t need an exemption.

‘Pro-development and open for business’

Another company that immediately became economically viable as a result of the abolishment of the Coal Policy was Valory Resources, another Perth-based coal company.

In a 2019 presentation Valory noted that its proposed Blackstone Project occupied 14,500 hectares of Category 2 lands regulated by the Coal Policy in the headwaters of the North Saskatchewan River basin.

In a new 2021 presentation, in which Valory makes no mention of the Coal Policy, the company reveals that it “recently met with key Members of the Legislative Assembly of Alberta and received strong statements of support... which indicates that the Alberta provincial government are ‘pro-development and open for business.’” The company gathered those supportive statements into an appendix.

Valory expects to have a mine operating in the previously off-limits lands along the southeastern flank of the Rockies within 15 months.

The company’s presentation champions two letters of support from then-tourism minister Tanya Fir and Environment Minister Jason Nixon* both dated at the end of 2019.

Montem Resources, a Melbourne-based coal company, has also celebrated the killing of the Coal Policy.

It has plans for several multiple open-pit mines in the Crowsnest Pass including its 5,000 hectare Isola project near Atrum’s massive Elan project.



Alberta’s Cancelled Coal Leases Called a ‘Trick ’READ MORE

In a recent “exploration target summary” Montem notes, “All restrictions on issued coal leases within the former Coal Categories 2 and 3 have been removed, therefore the development status of [the] Isola [project] allows for both exploration and mining.”

On CBC radio Peter Doyle, the CEO of Montem, said mining would bring “prosperity” to the region but admitted that the “rollback of the ’76 Coal Policy has caused a flashpoint and that needs to be debated.”

In Australia the coal mining industry is a powerful and influential political force.

A 2019 investigative report found “A wide, well-funded network of lobbyists, supported by coal’s political and media allies, has been key to protecting the interests of coal companies operating in Australia. Individuals at the executive and staff level of these organizations regularly trade places, reinforcing the connections within a system that keeps coal at the centre of Australian politics, stifling energy sector reform and action on climate change.”

Turkey Emerges as the Largest Coal-Fired Electricity Producer in Europe

By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 22, 2024,

Turkey has consumed more coal-fired electricity in 2024 than any country in Europe.

Falling coal prices and reliance on Russian imports drive Turkey's coal dependency.

This shift away from renewables raises concerns about Turkey's environmental impact and energy security.

Turkey has emerged as the largest coal-fired electricity producer in Europe as major EU economies have continued to shut down coal power plants and boost renewable energy generation.    

In the first four months of this year, Turkey was the top coal power producer in Europe, overtaking Germany, according to data from energy think tank Ember cited by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.

This development highlights the diverging paths the EU and Turkey have taken in securing electricity supply. While the EU bloc—including top coal power producer Germany—is looking to reduce reliance on coal as much as possible, Turkey is importing and using more coal to meet its rising electricity demand as coal has become more economically viable to burn in power plants than imported natural gas. 

In 2023, Turkey overtook Poland to become Europe’s second-largest coal-fired power generator, behind Germany, Ember said in its Türkiye Electricity Review 2024 in March. At the same time, Turkey’s dependence on imported coal for electricity generation continued to increase, Ember’s energy analyst Bahadir Gumus says.  

Coal’s share in Turkey’s total power generation hit a record high of 36% last year, compared to a 12% share in the European Union. Turkey is dependent on coal imports from Russia—with which Ankara has kept friendly diplomatic and trade relations after the Russian invasion of Ukraine—and Russian coal imports held a 73% share in Turkey’s electricity generation, according to Ember’s data. 

Unlike the EU, Turkey doesn’t have a ban on imports of Russian energy products. 

As coal prices fell more than natural gas prices after the 2022 spike, gas-fired power generation in Turkey fell for the second year in a row in 2023, marking its lowest generation over four years. 

“Türkiye’s growing reliance on fossil fuels in electricity generation pushes Türkiye further from the path of clean energy transition,” Ember’s Gumus said. 

This year, Turkey generated 36 terawatt hours (TWh) of coal-fired electricity between January and April, surpassing Germany’s coal power output of 34.6 TWh and Poland’s 31.3 TWh, per Ember’s data.  

Germany, until recently Europe’s top coal-fired power producer, shut down additional coal plants this spring. 

At the beginning of the 2023/2024 winter, Germany’s government said it was bringing back online several coal-fired units for the winter in an attempt to save natural gas and avoid power supply shortfalls. 

Without Russian gas supply, the recent energy and gas crisis in Germany—and in Europe—has been keeping utilities and governments on edge and ready to have mothballed coal-fired power plants on stand-by in the coldest winter days to ensure the security of electricity supply. 

After the end of the winter, German utility RWE shut down permanently five coal power plant units, removing 2,100 megawatts (MW) of lignite capacity permanently from the grid. RWE has already decommissioned 12 lignite-fired power plant units with a total output of 4,200 MW since the end of 2020 and is confident it would complete its coal phase-out by 2030. 

In total, Germany shut down permanently 15 coal-fired power plants last month. 

“Several coal-fired power plants that were still on the grid as a precautionary measure over the last two years are therefore now superfluous and can be taken off the grid for good,” Economy Minister Robert Habeck told German agency dpa in early April, adding these were “neither necessary nor economical.” 

In 2023, lignite-powered electricity production in Germany slumped to the lowest level since 1963, while hard coal-powered plants produced the lowest electricity volumes since 1955, according to data compiled by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE. 

In Germany’s neighbor to the east, Poland, the biggest state utilities are preparing for a surge in clean energy investments in 2025, hoping that the government would move ahead with a plan to spin off coal assets that have been restricting the companies’ access to financial markets. 

Poland’s power grid operator said in March that it would spend $16 billion on upgrading and expanding its power grid to accommodate additional renewable and nuclear capacity.

Coal Still Powers More U.S. Electricity Than Any Renewable Energy Source

Tsvetana Paraskova - May 20, 2024

Coal still holds about 16% share of electricity generation.

Coal is declining, but not at the fast pace environmental campaigners and enthusiasts would have liked to.

But coal-fired power generation could rise in the summer, especially if heatwaves hit areas where wind power cannot provide the additional power supply.

Despite a continuous decline in U.S. coal power generation, the share of coal in America’s electricity mix is still above 15%, more than any renewable energy source.   

All renewable energy sources combined—wind, solar, hydropower, biomass, and geothermal—surpassed coal-fired generation in the U.S. electric power sector for the first time in 2022. But coal still holds about 16% share of electricity generation, more than wind’s share of around 11%, hydropower’s 6%, or solar power’s 4% share of the electric generation mix.  

True, coal generation and share have been declining in recent years – thanks to a surge in renewables and a higher share of natural gas-powered electricity due to rising production and falling gas prices. But coal is still playing a role in providing reliable baseload electricity and while falling, its share and contribution to the U.S. power system isn’t negligible at all.

Coal is declining, but not at the fast pace environmental campaigners and enthusiasts would have liked to.

The Biden Administration aims to make the U.S. power grid zero-emission by 2035. But this would be difficult to achieve, considering that currently fossil fuels – mostly natural gas and coal – provide 60% of the total U.S. electricity generation. Last year, gas accounted for 43% and coal for more than 16%.

Early this year, coal’s share held above 15%, although coal power generation fell between January and April to the lowest level in four years, per LSEG data cited by Reuters columnist Gavin Maguire.

Coal consumption typically falls in the spring and autumn – the so-called ‘shoulder’ season – when demand for heating and cooling is at its lowest.

But coal-fired power generation could rise in the summer, especially if heatwaves hit areas where wind power cannot provide the additional power supply.

Moreover, operators have planned fewer coal capacity retirements this year, per EIA data. Operators plan to retire 5.2 gigawatts (GW) of U.S. electric generating capacity in 2024, with coal and natural gas jointly accounting for 91% of the planned capacity retirements in the United States this year. The total capacity planned for retirement would be 62% lower compared to last year, when 13.5 GW was retired, and the least in any year since 2008.

After 22.3 GW of U.S. coal-fired electric generating capacity retired over the past two years, coal retirements will slow down in 2024, the EIA said in February. The 2.3 GW of coal-fired capacity scheduled to retire accounts for 1.3% of the U.S. coal fleet that was in operation as of the end of 2023. Coal retirements are scheduled to rebound in 2025 when operators expect to retire 10.9 GW.

The U.S. is now retiring coal capacity every year, but some areas depend on coal for their power generation more than others, while the expected surge in electricity demand due to data centers to support AI technologies will also require a stable power supply.

Five U.S. states rely on coal for more than half of their electricity generation. These are North Dakota, Missouri, Kentucky, Wyoming, and West Virginia, Reuters’s Maguire notes.

Moreover, data centers have seen such explosive growth that they are taxing utilities beyond what soaring power demand is calling for. 

Some utilities in the eastern and southern parts of the U.S. are proposing build-outs of new natural gas-fired capacity alongside renewables to support the growth in electricity consumption coming from data centers. Others have planned to delay the timeline for retiring coal-fired capacity to ensure grid reliability.

For example, Kansas City-based utility Evergy said in June 2023 that it would retire coal operations at its Lawrence Energy Center only in 2028, compared to earlier plans for end-2023 retirement.

“Our service area is experiencing some of its most robust electricity demand growth in decades, including very large projects like the Panasonic electric vehicle battery manufacturing factory and the Meta datacenter, as well as broad-based economic development in both Kansas and Missouri,” Evergy’s president and CEO David Campbell said last year.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Coal: The end is nigh — or is it?

As coal power is phased out in favor of cheaper renewable energy, the fossil fuel's future looks bleak. Yet coal is making a comeback as it helps power post-pandemic recoveries.



Coal power generation might be surging this winter, but experts say the fossil fuel's days are numbered


Amid a worldwide energy crisis, global coal power emissions are surging to pre-pandemic highs, especially in China and India. Rising oil and gas prices and the onset of winter have conspired with the energy needs of rebounding post-COVID economies to increase coal demand after a long decline.

The renaissance of the most carbon intensive fossil fuel was further reinforced when a commitment to a coal "phase-out" in the Glasgow Climate Pact was weakened to a "phase-down."

Going into COP26, the UK president of the conference Alok Sharma said he hoped the summit would "consign coal power to history" in a bid to keep global heating to around 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit). That didn't quite happen.

"A green light for more coal production," was how former Australian resources minister, Matt Canavan, responded to the last-minute diluting of the plan to exit coal.

"The countries in our region, like India, like China, like Southeast Asia, are growing and developing their industries, and their demand for coal almost has no limit," he said in a television interview.

Experts admit that the weakened language in the Glasgow agreement could muddy the broader momentum towards a coal phase-out by 2030 or 2040 at the latest.

But the current spike in coal demand will be a "short-term phenomenon" linked to a strong post-lockdown economic rebound, believes Catharina Hillenbrand von der Neyen, head of research at climate think tank, Carbon Tracker. "I would strongly caution against any view that this is the revival of coal."

Revival unlikely to last

Neyen expects coal to revert to its pre-COVID slide driven by cheaper renewables — including in China, which generated over half of the world's coal-fired power in 2020.

"The structural trend is for steeply falling load factors," she said, meaning that with competition from renewables, coal plants aren't running at full capacity, rendering them unprofitable. While new coal power plants are being built, they contribute to an oversupply that only exacerbates the problem. As a result, 27% of the global coal fleet has become unviable, according to Carbon Tracker.

"If I could put all my eggs into the coal basket again, you might find they drop onto the floor quite quickly," said Hillenbrand von der Neyen of coal's precipitous long-term outlook.

 


Gaurav Ganti, a researcher with Berlin-based think tank Climate Analytics, agrees. "This short-lived renaissance is unlikely to persist, given strong headwinds from low-cost renewables," he said.

Even as China and India power their COVID recovery with coal, the fact remains that the number of planned new coal power plants has declined by 76% since 2015 when the Paris Agreement was signed, according to climate change think tank E3G. This is equivalent to China's whole coal capacity.
'No room for complacency'

China provided about 75% of global coal investment in 2020. However, its decision in September to end funding of coal projects beyond its shores, and to peak its own coal use by 2025 as part of its 2060 net-zero emissions plan, is a further signal of coal's inevitable demise, said Ganti.

"However, there is no room for complacency," he added — even despite the broader commitment by 47 countries at COP26 to phase out coal via the Global Coal to Clean Power Transition Statement. "Our work indicates that keeping to 1.5 C, the warming limit of the Paris Agreement, requires coal-fired power to be phased out by 2030 in developed economies, and 2040 globally. Developing countries will require substantial international support for ditching coal."

And despite the Glasgow conference backing away from firm language on ending coal, individual countries are bringing their phase-out deadlines forward.

Germany's new governing coalition — comprising Social Democrats (SDP), Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) — is aiming for a 2030 coal exit, eight years ahead of the country's previous schedule.

Germany is Europe's second largest coal consumer and producer, but even amid a nuclear energy phase-out, it already managed to halve coal power consumption between 2010 and 2020. And while it's true that coal energy demand has also spiked in Germany in 2021, this was due in part to unusually poor weather conditions for wind and solar.

 
Financing a global coal phase-out

Along with other EU nations and the US, Germany is also helping to finance a coal phase-out in South Africa, which produces 90% of its energy from coal and is the biggest emitter of the fossil fuel in Africa. Germany's then-environment minister described the $8.5 billion (€7.3 billion) initiative agreed to in Glasgow to fund the shift from coal to clean energy as a potential "blueprint" for other regions.

Meanwhile, Portugal this week completely stopped burning coal for energy, two years ahead of a planned phase-out.

Fossil fuel powerhouse Ukraine has also committed to ending coal-power generation by 2035, or 2040 at the latest. At COP26, the country joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA), a coalition of national governments, businesses and organizations committed to an accelerated coal exit.
Stranded coal assets

Researchers are warning that governments who stick with coal could be set to lose billions in stranded assets — as well as hundreds of thousands of jobs — as the world decarbonizes to limit heating to below 2 degrees Celsius. A stranded asset is something that had value or generated income but no longer does.

According to a June 2021 report, one-third of coal mines in Europe, North America and Australia will become stranded assets by 2040 if countries meet their climate targets. Australia, for example, could lose $25 billion (€22 billion) per year in this scenario. Globally, 2.2 million jobs could be at risk unless countries act quickly to transition to a cleaner energy system.

But economics is not the only motivation to get out of coal. "Governments face a choice here," said Gaurav Ganti. "Invest in the fossil fuels of yesterday and risk stranded assets, or invest in renewable energy to get us on a 1.5 C pathway."

Edited by Ruby Russell/Jennifer Collins

India needs nearly 30 times more solar power to phase out coal jobs

February 7, 2020 By Mayank Aggarwal

Climate Consciousness
Climate change-induced disasters are a new normal across the world. A magic pill that is prescribed to combat these impacts is complete phasing out of coal and transitioning to renewable power.

A recent study has now revealed that India would need to scale up its current solar capacity to nearly 30 times, or about 1,000 gigawatts, to transition about half a million people directly working in coal mines.

The study, “Solar has greater techno-economic resource suitability than wind for replacing coal mining jobs,” published in the journal Environmental Research Letters in January, is a collaborative work between researchers from the University of British Columbia, Canada, and the Chalmers University, Sweden under a project funded by the Norwegian Research Council.

The study focused on India, China, the US, and Australia—countries that represent 70% of global coal production. Coal mining directly employs over 7 million workers and benefits millions more through indirect jobs globally. Repeated studies have advocated for cutting down coal production to tackle climate change. But the question remains whether those employed in coal mining can be rehabilitated in jobs in the solar and wind power industry.

The study evaluated the local solar and wind capacity required in each coal mining area and the scale of renewable energy deployment required to enable all coal miners to transition to solar or wind jobs. It focused mainly on solar and wind jobs because they represent over half of today’s renewable power jobs.

Phasing out coal-based power is also one of the major targets of climate agreements. At the Paris Agreement in 2015, the world agreed to make efforts to limit the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 degree celsius above pre-industrial levels and to try its best to limit the increase to 1.5 degree celsius. However, to meet the 1.5 degree celsius climate target, coal’s share in global energy supply should decline between 73-97% by 2050. But that would mean a near elimination of coal mining jobs.
Phasing out coal-based power is one of the targets of climate agreements.

The study showed that except for the US, each coal mining area would require several gigawatts (GW) of solar or wind power capacity locally to enable all coal miners in these areas to transition to solar or wind jobs. It stressed that deploying solar and wind power may not be techno-economically feasible in all coal mining areas due to low suitability of the resource.

“It is clear that while solar has greater techno-economic resource suitability than wind for replacing local coal mining jobs, this suitability doesn’t exist in all coal mining areas,” the study said.

For instance, in China, only 29% of coal mining areas have suitable solar power resources. In India and Australia nearly all coal mining areas are suitable for solar power, while around 62% of coal mining areas in the US are suitable for solar power.

It stated that the wind power suitability in coal mining areas is low in all four countries at less than 7% of coal mining areas having suitable resources. “Less than 5% of coal mining areas are suitable for both solar and wind power generation,” said the study.

It emphasised that even for solar, countries would need to substantially increase their current installed solar capacity, from three times in the US to 37 times in India, to transition only those coal miners who live in suitable solar areas to solar jobs.

“Our study shows that in general, wind industry jobs are not a feasible replacement for local coal mining industry jobs in any of these countries. There isn’t enough wind around coal mines. Solar industry jobs may be an option in India and Australia’s coal mining areas, and perhaps the US. However, there isn’t enough sun in most Chinese coal mining areas for this to be a viable option,” Sandeep Pai, a researcher at the Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability at the University of British Columbia and the lead author of the study, told Mongabay-India.

The study also said that answering this question is significant to ensure a “just transition” and to overcome possible politically-powerful coal mining interests so that they do not impede energy transitions.

It is because historical analysis of the coal industry declines show that coal miners do not migrate when they lose their jobs. For instance, in the US, coal miners helped support the rise of president Donald Trump, who, once elected, pulled the US out of the Paris climate agreement.
Coal industry is a big employer

In India, the study looked at states like Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha, Telangana and Madhya Pradesh, which account for over 85% of the country’s coal production. It found that around each coal mine nearly two gigawatts of solar power would need to be installed to absorb all coal miners working in the mines.
At present, about 485,000 coal miners are employed in India.

At present, about 485,000 coal miners are involved in India in the production of over 700 million tonnes of coal annually. There are also a large number of indirect jobs connected with the broader coal mining industry. Like, there are millions of people in coal mining towns across India, who run local tea stalls shops, restaurants, and grocery stores and thus if the coal industry declines, the survival of all these jobs will be difficult.

The study revealed that, at the regional level, all key coal-producing states are suitable for solar power generation, but almost no coal mining areas in India and its key coal-producing states are suitable for wind-power generation, because of the paucity of the wind resources.

The study’s lead author Sandeep Pai explained that “there is a complete mismatch between areas in India suitable for wind power and areas where coal mining is happening.” “Thus, creating wind jobs are not really an option in the coal mining area in India,” he said.

This means that for providing solar jobs for coal miners working in 500 operating mines in India, the country would have to scale up the current solar capacity substantially to almost 1,000 GW which is more than 30 times the current capacity. The key challenge is that this would need to be done in a few major coal-mining states.

At present (till December 31, 2019), India has an installed solar capacity of 33.73 GW India has a target of 175 GW of renewable power by 2022 and of that 100 GW is from solar power.

“Even if the government wanted to do it and there is energy demand in the future, building 960 GWs of solar capacity is a huge ask. One of the biggest challenges would be acquiring land. Although Coal India has large tracts of abandoned land, it might not be enough to create such a capacity,” said Pai.

Viable transition?

The study stated that the scale of deployment of renewable energy required raises serious questions about the viability of a transition path that depends solely on local renewable energy jobs for coal miners.

“This is true at both the local level where several GWe of installed capacity would be required per coal mining area and in aggregate where several times national capacity would be required just for absorbing mining jobs in areas suitable for renewable energy deployment. This means, in practical terms, not all coal miners may be able to transition to solar or wind jobs locally even in areas with suitable resources,” said the study.

There are numerous international organisations like the International Labour Organisation and International Renewable Energy Agency which claim that green jobs (like solar and wind jobs) can replace fossil fuel industry jobs. For instance, the ILO estimates that around 24 million green-jobs including renewable energy jobs, could be created worldwide by 2030 if governments take action to limit warming to 2 degree celsius.

Another report by the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) said that renewable energy could employ more than 40 million people by 2050. It said that total energy sector employment can reach 100 million by 2050, up from around 58 million today should the international community utilise its full renewable energy potential.

“While solar jobs could be the answer in some coal mining areas, policymakers would need to focus on a variety of industries including both renewables and non-renewables to help coal miners make an employment transition locally,” the study said. The study said that one innovative solution would be to provide coal miners with alternate jobs.

“The government needs to present an example of moving people from fossil fuel-based industry to renewables. Right now, the government is not targeting the people involved in the fossil fuel-based industry while running these skill programmes. Moreover, they need to look beyond renewable power sector jobs and reskill them in terms of alternate jobs,” Rakesh Kamal, an independent climate negotiations expert and host of the podcast, Climate Emergency, told Mongabay-India.

Sandeep Pai also cautioned that “globally, researchers and policymakers need to think beyond renewable energy jobs for fossil fuel workers.”

This post first appeared on Mongabay. We welcome your comments at ideas.india@qz.com

Russell: China goes after low-hanging coal fruit, the real challenge is at home

Reuters | September 23, 2021 

Coal. (Image from Pxhere, CC0)

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Clyde Russell, a columnist for Reuters.)


President Xi Jinping’s promise to end China’s financing of overseas coal-fired power plants was broadly welcomed by environmentalists, but the move should be seen as a first step rather than a major effort to mitigate climate change.

The Chinese leader used an address at the United Nations to state his country, the largest emitter of gases associated with climate change, would halt financing of coal-fired projects and boost help to developing countries to switch to cleaner renewable energy.

Given China is the largest financier of such projects, and an earlier commitment from Japan and South Korea to exit coal power projects, the move does call into question the viability of a large chunk of the world’s planned coal-fired plants.

Global Energy Monitor (GEM), a U.S.-based group that tracks coal power globally, told Reuters that 44 coal plants slated for an estimated $50 billion in Chinese financing could be impacted by the decision.

The pro-renewables think tank, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said a review of coal power proposals in countries with significant project pipelines indicates 56% of the total capacity is being supported by China.

Among countries with large Chinese support for coal power projects are Indonesia, where about 54% of the 18 gigawatts (GW) of planned plants have Chinese backing, and Bangladesh, where 88% of about 10 GW are supported by Beijing.

It’s worth noting that several of these planned projects were already in difficulty prior to Xi’s announcement, with high costs relative to competing renewable technologies and battery storage, climate change concerns and domestic opposition to rising air pollution.

A massive rally in seaborne thermal coal prices to near all-time highs, and a similar spike in rival fossil fuel liquefied natural gas (LNG), will also undermine the case for coal-fired projects based on imported supplies, given the ever-present risk of price volatility, especially as the world transitions to cleaner energy.

Thus it is likely Xi’s commitment has sounded the death knell for many outstanding projects around the world because alternative financing outside of direct government support will be hard to find.

China’s own plants key

The question then becomes whether this is enough to make much difference to the outlook for coal-fired power.

If all the planned projects with Chinese backing are cancelled, this would remove about 50 GW from the coal-fired pipeline.

According to GEM data there are 296.66 GW of coal projects in the announced, pre-permitted and permitted phases globally, so the Chinese-financed total amounts to about one-sixth of these. And more than half of them, or about 163 GW, are inside China itself.

Of countries that aren’t reliant on Chinese financing, only India has a significant pipeline of coal plants, with 20.7 GW in the announced, pre-permitted and permitted stages.

What the numbers show then is that if Xi really wanted to make a difference to the pipeline of coal-fired power plants, he has far more to do at home that he has internationally.

China has 96.68 GW of coal-fired generation under construction, more than half the global total, and has 1,047 GW operating, which is almost exactly half of the world’s capacity.

China’s operating coal fleet is also roughly four times bigger than the fleets of either of the next two biggest coal-reliant countries, India with 233 GW and the United States with 232.8 GW.

U.S. coal generation is likely to continue its rapid de-commissioning in coming years, especially considering the decarbonisation commitment of President Joe Biden.

There is also a question over Indian coal-fired power given many of the existing power plants can’t compete economically with renewables. Recent history has shown that coal is the first to exit the system in periods of soft power demand.

Overall, China’s announcement that it will stop funding coal power projects overseas is a positive development in mitigating climate change. The real game-changer, though, would be a commitment to ending its pipeline of domestic coal-fired plants.

(Editing by Tom Hogue)

China energy body urges support for coal, oil firms to build clean power

09/24/2021 

BEIJING (Reuters) - China's National Energy Administration (NEA) on Friday proposed providing support for coal and oil companies to build solar power and other clean energy generation projects with their current resources.

In a draft set of guidelines on deeper reform of the energy business environment, the NEA called for the promotion of integrated natural gas power and renewable energy projects, as well as coordinated development of fossil and renewable energy.

President Xi Jinping this week said China would stop building new coal-fired power stations overseas in Beijing's latest climate pledge, but the fossil fuel still accounts for the bulk of China's domestic energy consumption.

The NEA also advocated improvements in the long-term contract mechanism between energy companies and major energy users in order to ensure stable supply, without specifying what should be done.

The energy regulator said filing procedures for new energy projects should be simplified to promote the low-carbon transition.

"Power supply companies should strengthen power quality management... effectively reduce the time, frequency and impact of power outages," said the NEA.

The draft was released as companies from metal smelters to fertiliser makers have had to reduce production due to power rationing in several Chinese regions.

It is open to public feedback for 30 days.

(Reporting by Min Zhang and Tom Daly; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

'Coal Is Dead': New Global Pact Announced After China's Bold Step

"Consigning coal to history is crucial to avoiding catastrophic climate change."

Seven countries on Friday pledged they would cease building new coal power plants. 

(Photo: Shutterstock)

JULIA CONLEY

September 24, 2021

Just two days after Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the world's largest coal producer would stop funding overseas coal projects, seven countries on Friday pledged they would also cease building new coal power plants—the latest sign one of the world's dirtiest energy sources is on its way out.

"I call on more countries to come forward and sign up to this compact ahead of COP26, and play their part to limit global warming and keep 1.5 degrees alive."
—Alok Sharma, COP26

Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, Montenegro, Sri Lanka, and the U.K. signed the No New Coal agreement at the U.N. High-level Dialogue on Energy in New York, where officials this week aimed to gather more support for the pact at the U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP26) in November.

“Development of new coal-fired power plants must stop this year to achieve net zero emissions by 2050," said Dan Jørgensen, the Danish Minister of Climate, Energy and Utilities, in a statement. "That is why I am thrilled that we stand together with fellow ambitious countries with the aim to end construction of new coal-fired power plants. This energy compact is an important step on the way for a complete phase-out of coal power and consigning coal power to history at COP26. I encourage all governments to join this very important initiative."

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), all emissions from coal power plants—the world's largest source of carbon emissions—must be eliminated by 2040 in order to keep the heating of the planet below 1.5C.

The No New Coal agreement requires countries to immediately stop approving permits and end new construction of "unabated coal-fired power generation projects by the end of the year," according to Bloomberg.

Noting that the seven countries signed on to the pact following Xi's announcement—which is expected to eliminate 40 gigawatts of new coal power and avoid as much as 235 million tons of carbon emissions—the climate action group 350.org said the agreement is a clear sign that "coal is dead."

"China’s decision is pretty much the end of public financing for coal,” Chris Littlecott, associate director of fossil-fuel transition at climate think tank E3G, told Bloomberg.
The No New Coal agreement comes four years after more than 40 countries signed onto the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which requires a commitment to phase out existing coal operations as soon as 2030 as well as a pledge to halt construction of new plants.

Alok Sharma, a U.K. lawmakers and president of COP26, applauded the countries' "bold leadership to cancel coal through the No New Coal Power Compact, demonstrating the positive impact that countries working closely together can have in generating climate action," noting that transitioning away from coal and towards renewable energy technology has increasingly been shown to be cost-effective as well as vital for the survival of the planet.

"Consigning coal to history is crucial to avoiding catastrophic climate change," said Sharma. "The cost of clean renewable technologies continues to fall, making coal expensive and uncompetitive. I call on more countries to come forward and sign up to this compact ahead of COP26, and play their part to limit global warming and keep 1.5 degrees alive."

The No New Coal initiative, along with China's announcement, has put countries around the world "on notice," Littlecott said.

"Governments can have confidence in committing to no new coal," Littlecott said. "The No New Coal Power Compact provides a space for them to step forward together."

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UN Launches Pledge to Stop Building New Coal Power Plants


Akshat Rathi
Fri, September 24, 2021

UN Launches Pledge to Stop Building New Coal Power Plants

(Bloomberg) -- Seven countries have signed a pledge initiated by the United Nations to stop building new coal power plants, with the aim to gather more signatures before the global climate summit COP26 in Glasgow next month.

The No New Coal agreement is the latest attempt to try and piece together a global phase-out of the dirtiest fossil fuel. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres wants to end the pipeline of new plants this year, while COP26 President Alok Sharma has said his goal for the summit is to “consign coal to history.” Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, Montenegro, Sri Lanka and the U.K. signed the latest pledge.

“Moving away from coal is not a death knell for industrialization, but rather a much better opportunity for green jobs,” said Damilola Ogunbiyi, chief executive officer of the UN-backed international organization Sustainable Energy for All. That’s “what will drive other countries to join,” she said.

A separate initiative launched in 2017, called the Powering Past Coal Alliance, sets a higher bar. It includes 41 countries that have committed to phasing out existing coal operations as soon as 2030 in many cases, on top of promising not to build new plants. An additional 40 nations outside the alliance don’t have a single coal power plant in the pipeline, according to environmental think tank E3G.

That means more countries were ready to commit to not building new coal plants, but not all were ready to phase out existing operations. The No New Coal pact adds a missing step in the ladder for such nations by allowing them to make an easier pledge in the hope that it will ultimately accelerate the end coal.

In the run up to COP26, a number of such voluntary alliances are being created. Last week, the U.S. and European Union launched the Global Methane Pledge that aims to reduce emissions of the super-warming gas by 30% within a decade. Last month, Denmark and Costa Rica launched the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance seeks to end the extraction of oil and gas by midcentury.

The patchwork of alliances targeting dirty sources of energy or specific greenhouse gases is a far cry from the systematic, orderly energy transition that the world needs. Rather, it’s an acceptance of the political reality of climate diplomacy that has to accommodate countries’ different stages of development.

Burning coal for electricity generation contributes to about a third of the world’s total carbon-dioxide emissions. With cleaner sources of power, such as solar and wind, becoming cheaper to build and operate, the case for ending coal keeps getting stronger. All emissions from coal power plants should end by 2040 if the world is to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the International Energy Agency.

That’s a deadline Chile plans to meet. “We have an ambitious phase-out plan for all coal power plants,” said Juan Carlos Jobet Eluchans, the country’s minster of energy.

The No New Coal pact got a boost before its launch, with President Xi Jinping telling the UN general assembly this week that China will stop building coal power plants abroad. He didn’t provide details, but the announcement could mean an end to about 40 gigawatts of new coal power plants. That would avoid as much as 235 million tons of emissions, according to Global Energy Monitor. Xi’s pledge came after similar commitments from the only other remaining major financiers of overseas coal power plants — Japan and South Korea — earlier in the year.

“China’s decision is pretty much the end of public financing for coal,” said Chris Littlecott, associate director of fossil-fuel transition at E3G. “Private investors now face all of the risks of investing in coal on their own.”

The pipeline of new coal power plants has collapsed globally over the past decade. Since 2015, the world has canceled 1,175 GW of coal power plants—about the same size as China’s existing coal fleet, according to E3G—and thus avoided billions of tons of carbon dioxide that would have been dumped annually.

The No New Coal pact is a big step for some signatories. “Sri Lanka has been debating whether to build new coal plants for a few years,” said Christine Shearer of Global Energy Monitor, which tracks coal power plants globally. “If countries like Pakistan and Malaysia join, then we can really start to see the end of new coal plants.”

Still, there won’t be a significant reduction unless China, which is home to more than half of the world’s pipeline of new coal power plants, stops using the fuel. Xi didn’t address the domestic issue in his remarks to the UN.

China’s pledge to kick the coal habit comes at a critical moment for the planet

The devil will be in the details, but ending investments in overseas coal shows Beijing takes the climate crisis seriously

Sam Geall is CEO of China Dialogue and associate fellow at Chatham House

A power station in Hefei, Anhui province, China, in 2011. The country has pledged to stop building new coal-fired power projects abroad. 

Photograph: Jianan Yu/Reuters

Fri 24 Sep 2021

“China will step up support for other developing countries in developing green and low-carbon energy,” said China’s president, Xi Jinping, at the United Nations on Tuesday, “and will not build new coal-fired power projects abroad.”

It was a short, ambiguous and not entirely unexpected sentence, but it came at a critical moment. UN-led climate talks in November at Cop26 in Glasgow will represent the first opportunity since the signing of the 2015 UN Paris agreement for countries to ratchet up the commitments in their pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Countries need to increase their NDC ambitions by five times if the world is to reach the goal of not warming by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Xi’s announcement, which effectively amounts to the end of international public financing for coal power, seems to match the ambition necessary for this moment.

The pledge speaks to a major fault line in the pre-Cop26 debates. China’s belt and road initiative – the grand plan to enhance trade and connectivity across much of the developing world, creating foreign markets for Chinese industrial overcapacity – was heavily weighted towards high-carbon infrastructure. On the presidential campaign trail last year, Joe Biden made sure to point this out. “China … and their belt and road proposal,” he said, “they’re taking the dirtiest coal in the world mostly out of Mongolia and spreading it all around the world.”

So, what does Xi’s statement mean? The announcement fell on the first anniversary of China’s pledge to make the economy climate neutral by 2060, either by eliminating greenhouse gas emissions entirely or balancing them with carbon removal. He also announced it unilaterally, at the UN general assembly, and thus tied it irrevocably to his personal political legacy. But questions remain: how will this coal phase-out be implemented? What is the fate of coal power projects that are already planned or under construction? What is the scope of the word “build”? Does it include an end to international financing for coal, too? What about Chinese labour or engineering on a domestic project? Does it cover private companies, or only state-owned enterprises and banks?

In the absence of clear answers, we might look to the effect of the 2060 announcement, a year ago. In short: it was huge (Climate Action Tracker found that the pledge alone lowered global warming projections by 0.2–0.3C, the largest single projected change it has recorded), and it did matter. Policies and sectoral roadmaps have been fleshed out in the intervening year. Slogans (“1+N”; “30-60”), which are an important part of Chinese governance, were set. And China’s vice premier, Han Zheng – also in charge of a fearsome central inspection team, with authority to swoop in and censure bodies that step out of line – took the helm of a climate “leaders group” overseeing the net-zero goal.

Progress hasn’t been straightforward: China’s system isn’t smoothly technocratic, and there is a push and pull between core and periphery, incumbent and challenger industries. Things could be moving faster – particularly when it comes to phasing out China’s domestic coal fleet. China’s 14th Five Year Plan, for 2021-2025, will reduce the carbon and energy emitted per unit of economic output, and increase the share of renewables in its energy mix, but it does not commit the country to a carbon emissions or coal usage cap, as domestic environmentalists had hoped for. Its 2030 carbon “peak year” is relatively easy to achieve, and while China is known to “under-promise and over-deliver” on climate goals, the lack of ambition in domestic decarbonisation in the near term is a signal that the country is hedging things, in part due to an uncertain economic environment.

Yet this week’s announcement suggests, importantly, that China is willing to stay the course on climate diplomacy, despite rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with the US. The two economies together account for about 40% of global emissions and were, before the election of Donald Trump, a linchpin of climate cooperation. While foreign policy observers like to characterise China’s engagement on climate change as a “point of leverage” to force concessions in other arenas, Tuesday’s pledge shows that it is willing to move forward with decarbonisation unilaterally. In other words, high tensions with the US, which have continued with the Biden administration, do not appear to have weakened Beijing’s climate resolve.

China’s climate action ultimately reflect its self-interest. Political elites are aware of the country’s vulnerabilities with regards to global heating – its impacts on food and water security, and in chronic environmental stresses and natural disasters, as seen tragically this summer in Zhengzhou. Policymakers also recognise that climate action aligns with domestic economic priorities. China’s low-carbon industrial policy has positioned the country as the leading global supplier of clean technologies; the country has strengthened its energy security through electrification and decarbonisation; and it has used the shift away from polluting industries to move the economy “up the value chain” – towards innovation and services.

In the process, it has scored a soft-power win on the world stage, and at relatively low cost: the short-term pain may have industry insiders grumbling, but the economics of energy point towards renewables. China, at this point, is the last man standing on coal finance. Since 2013, China, Japan and South Korea provided 95% of that financing, with China the largest share, supplying $50bn, accounting for about 56GW of installed capacity. Japan and South Korea withdrew their support at the US-hosted Climate Leaders Summit in April.

So, perhaps it is low-hanging fruit, and China could start reaching higher up the tree. But we shouldn’t forget the other part of Xi’s sentence – his focus on supplying “green and low-carbon energy” for developing nations. This certainly won’t go unnoticed in the global south, where support from Europe and North America has been left wanting in recent years. The $100bn in climate finance promised for developing countries by rich nations at Paris has not materialised; access to vaccines continues, rightly, to be a point of tension; and countries are being implored to do more to address “loss and damage” – measures, such as compensation, required when vulnerable nations face devastating climate risks and adaptation is no longer possible.

There’s a lot of that fruit going unpicked. Another positive consequence of Xi’s announcement, therefore, would be if rich countries took it as a stimulus to start properly demonstrating their solidarity with the people in the world most badly affected by the climate crisis.

Coal price renaissance: how long can it last?

Nelson Bennett - Business in Vancouver | September 26, 2022 |

Open pit coal mine. (Stock Image)

Over the last year and a half, the renaissance of coal – both kinds – has been gobsmacking.


No one saw coal prices of $400 to $600 per tonne coming, including those in the coal industry.

“If, a year ago, fifteen months ago, you had said to people thermal coal could be $440, and coking coal could be $600, they’d call the ambulance and recommend a nice doctor,” Neil Bristow, managing director of H&W worldwide Consulting, said Thursday at a recent Coal Association of Canada conference.

“Who would believe it?”

While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has roiled energy markets and driven up coal prices, the reality is that thermal coal prices had been surging months before the invasion, as Europe was already in a self-induced energy shortage and resorting back to coal power.

Five or six years ago, thermal coal sold for about $60 to $80 per tonne, Bristow said. Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, thermal coal prices had soared to around $200 per tonne.

“The fundamentals that caused those prices to increase in Q3 and Q4 of 2021 are still there, and they’ve only been exacerbated by the sanctions on Russian coal,” said Ernie Thrasher, CEO of Xcoal Energy and Resources.

Never in Bristow’s lifetime has he seen thermal coal (burned to produce power) worth more than metallurgical coal, which is used to make steel, but it is now.

Metallurgical coal (also called coking or steelmaking coal) briefly touched $600 per tonne, Bristow said, but has since settled down to about $270 per tonne. That’s still a high price, but less than thermal coal at the moment, which is well above $300 per tonne.

The usual market forces of supply and demand that would normally see producers responding to high prices with increased production simply isn’t happening with coal.

In the U.S., the coal mining industry is half the size it was a couple of decades ago, and simply can’t suddenly reverse coarse. Australia’s coal production peaked in 2016 and it seems unlikely it can respond to the sudden demand for thermal coal either. B.C. is a major producer and exporter of metallurgical coal, but Canada exports little if any thermal coal.

Xcoal estimates the UK and Europe alone will need to find 47 million tonnes of coal that used to come from Russia. It’s unlikely to come from the U.S.

“There’s just not much the U.S. can do,” Thrasher said. “We’ve basically dismembered our coal industry.”

Even if American coal mines could increase production, there is limited coal terminal capacity for exports, which is why coal produced in Montana and Wyoming is shipped through B.C. export terminals. And right now, one of those terminals — Westshore — has been paralyzed by a strike.

“There is just no elasticity in the supply chain that’s allowing people to respond to these prices, and the old adage of the best thing for high prices is high prices is not holding true,” Thrasher said.

In total, Xcoal estimates the global coal supply gap at 96 million tonnes.

“These high coal prices are occurring at a time when the Chinese economy is just dead flat on its back,” Thrasher added. If China’s economy were to suddenly recover and grow, that would put even more pressure on both thermal and coking coal prices.

“Who can supply 96 million tonnes to fill that gap?” Thrasher wondered. “It’s probably only China and India. There’s just not a lot of other countries in the world where there’s the ability to produce the coal that needs to fill this gap.”

As for steelmaking coal, which is B.C.’s second most valuable export, a global recession might cool demand and temper prices somewhat. But Bristow predicts prices will remain high over the next few years, as there simply not enough new metallurgical coal mines being built.

“My models do not show enough coking coal to meet the demand in the world after about 2027, 2028,” Bristow said. “We desperately need new mines.”

“I’m going to be bold and say it will not stay $400 or $500 a tonne for very long,” Thrasher said of coking coal prices. “But I think the days of seeing sub-125, 150 dollars per metric tonne of coking coal for any period of time are in the rear-view mirror, and it’s because the coal simply is not being produced.”

Thrasher said he can envision stagflation resulting from the shortage of coal, if there is a global recession.

“If we get into a major global economic slowdown, it certainly is going to put a damper on our products,” Thrasher said. “The question is, if you go back and look at those supply shortfalls, will a 5% global economic slowdown be enough to solve the problem if you’re 10% short in energy supply? You basically have a stagflation environment where the global economy is crashing but you still need energy and the energy prices stay high.

“It will affect thermal more than coking coal. It could be something we haven’t seen in 40 or 50 years.”

(This article first appeared in Business in Vancouver)