UN report warns of catastrophic risks to Earth systems


AFP
October 25, 2023

Pakistani porters hike the Baltoro Glacier, July 14, 2023 

- Copyright AFP Guillem SARTORIO

Melting glaciers, unbearable heat and space junk: a month before crunch climate talks in the United Arab Emirates, a UN report published Wednesday warns about irreversible impacts to the planet without drastic changes to connected social and physical systems.

The Interconnected Disaster Risks Report identifies thresholds it calls “risk tipping points,” defined as “the moment at which a given socioecological system is no longer able to buffer risks and provide its expected function” — after which the risk of catastrophe increases significantly.

It focuses on six areas that connect the physical and natural world with human society: accelerating extinctions, groundwater depletion, mountain glacial melt, space debris, unbearable heat and an “uninsurable” future.

“As we indiscriminately extract our water resources, damage nature and biodiversity, and pollute both Earth and space, we are moving dangerously close to the brink of multiple risk tipping points that could destroy the very systems that our life depends on,” said Zita Sebesvari, the report’s lead author.

For example: underground water reservoirs represent an essential freshwater resource around the world and today mitigate half of the losses of agriculture caused by droughts, which are being exacerbated by climate change.

But aquifers themselves are now depleting faster than they can be naturally replenished: Saudi Arabia has already crossed the groundwater risk tipping point while India isn’t far behind.

In the case of accelerating extinctions, the report highlights the cascading effects of extinctions throughout food chains.

“The gopher tortoise, which is threatened with extinction, digs burrows that are used by more than 350 other species for breeding, feeding, protection from predators and avoiding extreme temperatures,” the report said.

If the gopher tortoise goes extinct, the gopher frog that helps control insect populations will likely follow, triggering effects throughout the entire forest ecosystem of the southeastern United States.

Mountain glaciers that store vast amounts of freshwater meanwhile are melting twice as fast as they did in the past two decades.

“Peak water” — the point when a glacier produces its maximum amount of water runoff due to melting — has been reached or is expected to be reached within the next ten years across small glaciers in Central Europe, Western Canada and South America.

“The 90,000+ glaciers of the Himalayas, Karakoram and Hindu Kush mountains are at risk, and so are the nearly 870 million people that rely on them,” the report said.

In the case of space junk, the report warns Earth’s orbit is in danger of becoming so full of debris that a collision triggers a chain reaction that threatens humanity’s ability to operate satellites — including those that provide vital early warning monitoring against disasters.

The report finds most solutions currently being implemented focus on delaying problems rather than genuinely addressing the root causes.

“We need to understand the difference between adapting to risk tipping points and avoiding them, and between actions that delay looming risks and those that move us towards transformation,” it said.

Afghanistan hit by third earthquake in a week

ALLAH AND THE SOPHIA HAVE ABANDONED THEM

PublishedShae

IMAGE SOURCE,EPA-EFE/REX/SHUTTERSTOCK

Image caption,

The powerful earthquakes earlier this week devastated the province of Herat

A new earthquake has hit western Afghanistan - several days after two large tremors in the region killed more than 1,000 people.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) says the magnitude 6.3 quake struck near the city of Herat. It was at a depth of 6.3km (four miles).

At least one person has died, according to local health authorities.

Another 100 are being treated for injuries in the regional hospital, the World Health Organisation said.

More than 90% of those who died in the earlier quakes were women and children, the UN's children agency Unicef said.

In its report, the USGS said the epicentre of the latest tremor was 30km north-west of Herat, Afghanistan's third-largest city close to the Iranian border.

Last Saturday's earthquake hit Zindajan, a rural district some 40km from Herat.

The tremor saw entire houses, which were too fragile to withstand the quake, reduced to rubble.

Villagers used shovels and bare hands to search for missing people.

Medicines Sans Frontiers Afghanistan Programme head, Yahya Kalilah told the AFP news agency the casualties would likely be low because people were already sleeping outside in tents.

"In terms of psychology, people are panicked and traumatised," he said.

"People are not feeling safe. I will assure you 100%, no one will sleep in their house."

The Taliban, who has been ruling Afghanistan since 2021, also as the cold sets in, will likely not be able to manage in tents for more than a month.

Afghanistan has been reeling from an economic crisis since the Taliban came to power, when aid given directly to the government was stopped.

The country is frequently hit by earthquakes, especially in the Hindu Kush mountain range, as it lies near the junction of the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates.

In June last year, the province of Paktika was hit by a 5.9 magnitude quake which killed more than 1,000 people and left tens of thousands homeless.

Powerful Earthquake Shakes West Afghanistan a Week after Devastating Quakes Hit Same Region

A man affected by earthquake waits for relief in the earthquake-hit Zenda Jan district of Herat, Afghanistan, 13 October 2023. (EPA)

10:46-15 October 2023 AD ـ 

01 Rabi’ Al-Thani 1445 AH

A powerful 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck western Afghanistan on Sunday, just over a week after strong quakes and aftershocks killed thousands of people and flattened entire villages in the same region.

The US Geological Survey said the latest quake’s epicenter was about 34 kilometers (21 miles) outside Herat, the provincial capital, and eight kilometers (five miles) below the surface.

Aid group Doctors Without Borders said two people were reported dead while Herat Regional Hospital received over 100 people injured in Sunday’s temblor.

Mohammad Zahir Noorzai, head of the emergency relief team in Herat province said one person died and nearly 150 others were injured. He added that casualty numbers might rise, as they are yet to reach all affected areas.

Sayed Kazim Rafiqi, 42, a Herta city resident, said he had never seen such devastation before with the majority of houses damaged and "people terrified." Rafiqi and others headed to the hospital to donate much-needed blood.

"We have to help in any way possible," he said.

The earthquakes on Oct. 7 flattened whole villages in Herat, in one of the most destructive quakes in the country’s recent history.

More than 90% of the people killed a week ago were women and children, UN officials reported Thursday.

Taliban officials said the earlier quakes killed more than 2,000 people across the province. The epicenter was in Zenda Jan district, where 1,294 people died, 1,688 were injured and every home was destroyed, according to UN figures.

The initial quake, numerous aftershocks and a second 6.3-magnitude quake on Wednesday flattened villages, destroying hundreds of mud-brick homes that could not withstand such force. Schools, health clinics and other village facilities also collapsed.

Besides rubble and funerals after that devastation, there was little left of the villages in the region’s dusty hills.

Survivors are struggling to come to terms with the loss of multiple family members and in many places, living residents are outnumbered by volunteers who came to search the debris and dig mass graves.

Magnitude 6.3 earthquake jolts western Afghanistan

AFP Published October 15, 2023 

Herat Regional Hospital.— Photo courtesy: TOLO’s X account.

A magnitude 6.3 earthquake shook western Afghanistan on Sunday, the US Geological Survey said, wracking the same region where more than 1,000 people were killed in tremors last week.

The quake hit just after 8am with an epicentre 33 kilometres northwest of Herat city, the capital of the same-named western province, the USGS said.

A magnitude 5.5 aftershock followed 20 minutes later.

Abdul Qadeem Mohammadi, head doctor at Herat Regional Hospital, told AFP that “so far 93 injured and one dead have been registered”.

National disaster management officials said they were still investigating the scale of destruction.

An AFP reporter in Herat city said most residents were still sleeping outside a week after the start of a series of quakes in the region, fearful of aftershocks pulling down their homes in the night.

But some had begun sleeping inside again.

“Herat’s people are panicked and scared,” said 27-year-old shopkeeper Hamid Nizami.

“It’s Allah’s blessing that it happened during the day, people were awake,” he said.

Another magnitude 6.3 quake and eight powerful aftershocks jolted the same part of Herat on October 7, toppling swathes of rural homes.

The Taliban government said more than 1,000 people were killed in last week’s tremors, while the World Health Organization (WHO) put the figure at nearly 1,400 late Saturday.

Another tremor of the same intensity killed one person and injured 130 others days after the initial quakes, as thousands of terrified residents were left without shelter and volunteers dug for survivors.

The quakes were followed by dust storms which damaged the tents survivors were living in.

“Many of our countrymen don’t have any place to live and nights are getting colder,” said shopkeeper Nizami.
‘Can’t live here’

The WHO says nearly 20,000 people have been affected by the string of disasters, with women and children making up most of the fatalities.

Thousands of residents are now living around the ruins of homes where entire families were wiped out in an instant.

Forty-year-old Mohammad Naeem told AFP he lost 12 relatives, including his mother, after last week’s quakes.

“We can’t live here anymore. You can see, our family got martyred here. How could we live here?” he said.

Earthquakes are frequent in western and central Afghanistan and are mostly caused by the Arabian and Eurasian tectonic plates jutting against each other.

Providing shelter on a large scale will be a challenge for Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities, who seized power in August 2021 and have fractious relations with international aid organisations.

“We know they could live there in tents for one month, but more than that would probably be very difficult,” said public health minister Qalandar Ebad.

Most homes in rural Afghanistan are made of mud and built around wooden support poles, with little in the way of steel or concrete reinforcement.

Multi-generational extended families generally live under the same roof, meaning serious earthquakes can devastate communities.

Afghanistan is already suffering a dire humanitarian crisis, with the widespread withdrawal of foreign aid following the Taliban government’s return to power.

Afghan rescuers work through the night after deadly quake

By AFP
Published October 7, 2023

Afghan men sit in the rubble of their flattened homes in Sarbuland village in Herat province following Saturday's earthquake - Copyright AFP Genya SAVILOV
Mohsen KARIMI

Desperate rescuers scrabbled through the night searching for survivors of an earthquake that flattened homes in western Afghanistan, with the death toll of 120 expected to rise Sunday as the extent of the disaster becomes clear.

Saturday’s magnitude 6.3 quake — followed by eight strong aftershocks — jolted areas 30 kilometres (19 miles) northwest of the provincial capital of Herat, toppling swathes of rural homes and sending panicked city dwellers surging into the streets.

Herat disaster management head Mosa Ashari told AFP late Saturday there had been “about 120” fatalities reported and “more than 1,000 injured women, children, and old citizens”.

A spokesman for the national disaster authority said they expect the death toll “to rise very high”.

As night fell in Sarboland village of Zinda Jan district, an AFP reporter saw dozens of homes razed to the ground near the epicentre of the quakes, which shook the area for more than five hours.

Men shovelled through piles of crumbled masonry as women and children waited in the open, with gutted homes displaying personal belongings flapping in the harsh wind.

The World Health Organization (WHO) said more than 600 houses were destroyed or partially damaged across at least 12 villages in Herat province, with some 4,200 people affected.

“In the very first shake all the houses collapsed,” said 42-year-old Bashir Ahmad.

“Those who were inside the houses were buried,” he said. “There are families we have heard no news from.”

– ‘Everything turned to sand’ –

Nek Mohammad told AFP he was at work when the first quake struck at around 11:00 am (0630 GMT).

“We came home and saw that actually there was nothing left. Everything had turned to sand,” said the 32-year-old, adding that some 30 bodies had been recovered.

“So far, we have nothing. No blankets or anything else. We are here left out at night with our martyrs,” he said as darkness began to fall.

The WHO said late Saturday “the number of casualties is expected to rise as search and rescue operations are ongoing”.

In Herat city, residents fled their homes and schools, hospitals and offices evacuated when the first quake was felt. There were few reports of casualties in the metropolitan area, however.

Afghanistan is already suffering in the grip of a dire humanitarian crisis, with the widespread withdrawal of foreign aid following the Taliban’s return to power in 2021.

Herat province — home to some 1.9 million on the border with Iran — has also been hit by a years-long drought which has crippled many already hardscrabble agricultural communities.

Afghanistan is frequently hit by earthquakes, especially in the Hindu Kush mountain range, which lies near the junction of the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates.

In June last year, more than 1,000 people were killed and tens of thousands left homeless after a 5.9-magnitude quake — the deadliest in Afghanistan in nearly a quarter of a century — struck the impoverished province of Paktika.

Death toll from strong earthquakes that shook western Afghanistan rises to over 2,000

ISLAMABAD (AP) — The death toll from strong earthquakes that shook western Afghanistan has risen to over 2,000, a Taliban government spokesman said Sunday. It's one of the deadliest earthquakes to strike the country in two decades.

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FILE - An aerial view of the outskirts of Herat, Afghanistan, Monday, June 5, 2023. Two 6.3 magnitude earthquakes killed dozens of people in western Afghanistan's Herat province on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023, the country's national disaster authority said. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd, File)

ISLAMABAD (AP) — The death toll from strong earthquakes that shook western Afghanistan has risen to over 2,000, a Taliban government spokesman said Sunday. It's one of the deadliest earthquakes to strike the country in two decades.

A powerful magnitude-6.3 earthquake followed by strong aftershocks killed dozens of people in western Afghanistan on Saturday, the country's national disaster authority said.

Recommended reads for you:

• Two 6.3-magnitude earthquakes kill dozens and injure many more in western Afghanistan
• Death toll from strong earthquakes that shook western Afghanistan rises to 2,000

But Abdul Wahid Rayan, spokesman at the Ministry of Information and Culture, said the death toll from the earthquake in Herat is higher than originally reported. About six villages have been destroyed, and hundreds of civilians have been buried under the debris, he said while calling for urgent help.

The United Nations late Saturday gave a preliminary figure of 320 dead, but later said the figure was still being verified. Local authorities gave an estimate of 100 people killed and 500 injured, according to the same update from the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

The update said 465 houses had been reported destroyed and a further 135 were damaged.

“Partners and local authorities anticipate the number of casualties to increase as search and rescue efforts continue amid reports that some people may be trapped under collapsed buildings,” the U.N. said.

Disaster authority spokesperson Mohammad Abdullah Jan said four villages in the Zenda Jan district in Herat province bore the brunt of the quake and aftershocks.

The United States Geological Survey said the quake's epicenter was about 40 kilometers (25 miles) northwest of Herat city. It was followed by three very strong aftershocks, measuring magnitude 6.3, 5.9 and 5.5, as well as lesser shocks.

At least five strong tremors struck the city around noon, Herat city resident Abdul Shakor Samadi said.

“All people are out of their homes,” Samadi said. “Houses, offices and shops are all empty and there are fears of more earthquakes. My family and I were inside our home, I felt the quake.” His family began shouting and ran outside, afraid to return indoors.

The World Health Organization in Afghanistan said it dispatched 12 ambulance cars to Zenda Jan to evacuate casualties to hospitals.

“As deaths & casualties from the earthquake continue to be reported, teams are in hospitals assisting treatment of wounded & assessing additional needs,” the U.N. agency said on X, formerly known as Twitter. “WHO-supported ambulances are transporting those affected, most of them women and children.”

Telephone connections went down in Herat, making it hard to get details from affected areas. Videos on social media showed hundreds of people in the streets outside their homes and offices in Herat city.

Herat province borders Iran. The quake also was felt in the nearby Afghan provinces of Farah and Badghis, according to local media reports.

Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban-appointed deputy prime minister for economic affairs, expressed his condolences to the dead and injured in Herat and Badghis.

The Taliban urged local organizations to reach earthquake-hit areas as soon as possible to help take the injured to hospital, provide shelter for the homeless, and deliver food to survivors. They said security agencies should use all their resources and facilities to rescue people trapped under debris.

“We ask our wealthy compatriots to give any possible cooperation and help to our afflicted brothers,” the Taliban said on X.

Japan's ambassador to Afghanistan, Takashi Okada, expressed his condolences saying on the social media platform X, that he was “deeply grieved and saddened to learn the news of earthquake in Herat province.”

In June 2022, a powerful earthquake struck a rugged, mountainous region of eastern Afghanistan, flattening stone and mud-brick homes. The quake killed at least 1,000 people and injured about 1,500.

The Associated Press

As extreme downpours trigger flooding around the world, scientists take a closer look at global warming's role

Mohammed Ombadi, 

Assistant Professor of Climate and Space Sciences Engineering, University of Michigan

THE CONVERSATION
Sat, September 30, 2023

Torrential downpours sent muddy water racing through streets in Libya, Greece, Spain and Hong Kong and flood parts of New York City in September 2023. Thousands of people died in the city of Derna, Libya. Zagora, Greece, saw a record 30 inches of rain, the equivalent of a year and a half of rain falling in 24 hours.

A few weeks earlier, monsoon rains triggered deadly landslides and flooding in the Himalayas that killed dozens of people in India.

After severe flooding on almost every continent this year, including mudslides and flooding in California in early 2023 and devastating floods in Vermont in July, it can seem like extreme rainfall is becoming more common.

So, what role does global warming play in this? And importantly, what can we do to adapt to this new reality?

A powerful storm system in 2023 flooded communities across Vermont and left large parts of the capital, Montpelier, underwater. 

John Tully for The Washington Post via Getty Images

As a climate scientist with a background in civil engineering, I am interested in exploring the links between the science of climate change and extreme weather events on one hand and the impacts those events have on our daily lives on the other. Understanding the connections is crucial in order to develop sound strategies to adapt to climate change.
Thirstier atmosphere, more extreme precipitation

As temperatures rise, the warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor. Evaporation of water from land and oceans also increases. That water has to eventually come back to land and oceans.

Simply, as the atmosphere absorbs more moisture, it dumps more precipitation during storms. Scientists expect about a 7% increase in precipitation intensity during extreme storms for every 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) of warming.

This increase in the amount of moisture that air can hold is what scientists call the Clausius Clapeyron relationship. But other factors, such as changes in wind patterns, storm tracks and how saturated the air is, also play a role in how intense the precipitation is.
Liquid vs. frozen: Rain matters most

One factor that determines the severity of floods is whether water falls as rain or snow. The almost instantaneous runoff from rain, as opposed to the slower release of water from melting snow, leads to more severe flooding, landslides and other hazards – particularly in mountain regions and areas downstream, where about a quarter of the global population lives.

A higher proportion of extreme rainfall rather than snow is believed to have been a key contributor to the devastating floods and landslides in the Himalayas in August 2023, though research is still underway to confirm that. Additionally, a 2019 examination of flood patterns across 410 watersheds in the Western U.S. found that the largest runoff peaks driven by rainfall were more than 2.5 times greater than those driven by snowmelt.

Rainfall intensity is projected to increase more in certain regions by the end of the 21st century, based on climate model data. Light colors show a twofold increase and dark colors indicate an eightfold increase in future rainfall extremes compared to the recent past. Mohammed Ombadi., CC BY-ND

In a 2023 study in the journal Nature, my colleagues and I demonstrated that the intensity of extreme precipitation is increasing at a faster rate than the Clausius Clapeyron relationship would suggest – up to 15% per 1 C (1.8 F) of warming – in high-latitude and mountain regions such as the Himalayas, Alps and Rockies.

The reason for this amplified increase is that rising temperatures are shifting precipitation toward more rain and less snow in these regions. A larger proportion of this extreme precipitation is falling as rain.

In our study, we looked at the heaviest rains in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1950s and found that the increase in the intensity of extreme rainfall varied with altitude. Mountains in the American West, parts of the Appalachian Mountains, the Alps in Europe and the Himalayas and Hindu Kush mountains in Asia also showed strong effects. Furthermore, climate models suggest that most of these regions are likely to see a sevenfold-to-eightfold increase in the occurrence of extreme rainfall events by the end of the 21st century.
Flooding isn’t just a short-term problem

Deaths and damage to homes and cities capture the lion’s share of attention in the aftermath of floods, but increased flooding also has long-term effects on water supplies in reservoirs that are crucial for communities and agriculture in many regions.

For example, in the Western U.S., reservoirs are often kept as close to full capacity as possible during the spring snowmelt to provide water for the dry summer months. The mountains act as natural reservoirs, storing winter snowfall and then releasing the melted snow at a slow pace.

A series of atmospheric rivers in California dumped so much water on the region that Tulare Lake, which had dried up years earlier, reemerged as water spread across miles of California farmland. 

Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

However, our recent findings suggest that with the world rapidly shifting toward a climate dominated by heavy downpours of rain – not snow – water resource managers will increasingly have to leave more room in their reservoirs to store large amounts of water in anticipation of disasters to minimize the risk of flooding downstream.
Preparing for a fiercer future

Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have been increasing, but people still need to prepare for a fiercer climate. The destructive storms that hit the Mediterranean region in 2023 provide a cogent case for the importance of adaptation. They shattered records for extreme precipitation across many countries and caused extensive damage.

A main factor that contributed to the catastrophe in Libya was the bursting of aging dams that had managed water pouring down from mountainous terrain.

This underscores the importance of updating design codes so infrastructure and buildings are built to survive future downpours and flooding, and investing in new engineering solutions to improve resiliency and protect communities from extreme weather. It may also mean not building in regions with high future risks of flooding and landslides.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. 

It was written by: Mohammed Ombadi, University of Michigan.

Read more:

Summer 2023 was the hottest on record – yes, it’s climate change, but don’t call it ‘the new normal’

How climate change intensifies the water cycle, fueling extreme rainfall and flooding – the Northeast deluge was just the latest

Monsoons make deserts bloom in the US Southwest, but climate change is making these summer rainfalls more extreme and erratic

Mohammed Ombadi has received funding from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to conduct the Nature study discussed in this article.

Water Conflicts Loom In Central Asia – Analysis

 

View of Qosh Tepa, an irrigation canal, which will direct the water from the Amu Darya river to Afghanistan's arid northern region. Photo Credit: © Afghanistan's Deputy Minister of Economic Development

 August 13, 2023 

By IWPR

By Marat Mamadshoev

An irrigation canal under construction in Afghanistan aims to transform its agricultural landscape, providing water to the millions of its citizens hit by regular droughts. Once completed, the Qosh Tepa conduit will stretch for 285 kilometres and help irrigate the country’s arid northern provinces.

Neighbouring Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, however, are extremely concerned about the impact on their own water supplies. The canal will direct resources from the Amu Darya river and reduce the supply for the two countries, which have been siphoning water from the source since the Soviet era. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan may lose up to 15 per cent of the current supply once the waterway is completed in 2028. 

During a visit to Kabul in April, an Uzbek government delegation expressed concern about the plan to divert water to Afghanistan’s northern regions. Taleban officials responded that Kabul had as much right to access the water as its neighbours and that the three countries did not have formal agreements on its use.

The project, with a cost tag estimated at 684 million dollars, had been in the works for several years before the Taleban seized power, with the groundwork and feasibility studies initiated under Afghanistan’s former government with support from the USAID development agency . 

“It is a development project for Afghanistan that should have been implemented years ago. It is understandable that the Central Asian countries will be affected by this, but Afghanistan has the right to use the water of the Amu Darya River for its development,” Najibullah Sadid, a water and environmental expert at Germany’s University of Stuttgart, told IWPR, adding that successive wars had put the project on hold. 

While affirming that states had the right to use transnational rivers, Nekruz Kadyrov, a professor of international law at the National University of Tajikistan, noted that this applied to those both up and down river. 

“The issue of transnational river water distribution is regulated based on interstate agreements,” he told IWPR. “For example, Tajikistan cannot violate Uzbekistan’s rights in this matter. Moreover, Afghanistan cannot ignore the rights of countries downstream. If Afghanistan or Tajikistan only considers their own interests, what will happen to the interests of Uzbeks and Kazaks?”

When they took power in August 2021, the Taleban continued the work started by the previous government; at that time, seven kilometres of the canal had been built. The construction surged ahead under their government and satellite images reveal that approximately 100 kilometres of the canal were built between March 2022 and May 2023. 

AFGHANISTAN’S THIRST 

Water resources are critical for Afghanistan as the country is grappling with an unparalleled humanitarian crisis: according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), nearly 17 million people, or 40 per cent of population, face severe food insecurity. With 80 per cent of the populace reliant on agriculture for sustenance, the impact of climate change profoundly influences crop growth periods and yields, exacerbating the peril of food shortages.

Amidst Afghanistan’s desert terrain, an abundant reserve of water resources lies untapped. Over 80 per cent of the country’s water originates in the Hindu Kush mountains, which offer a continuous flow to major rivers throughout the year as the snow melts during summer.

Yet poor supply infrastructure poses colossal challenges in guaranteeing uninterrupted access to water. Afghanistan’s history of conflict and occupation has hindered the development of extensive hydraulic structures and canals.

Some worry that the canal could inadvertently bolster the opium trade. Afghanistan is the world’s largest poppy producer. Despite the Taleban’s proclamation of a poppy cultivation ban, surging opium prices have fueled a thriving illegal trade. 

The quality of the construction is a key concern. Satellite imagery suggests that building methods are rudimentary, with no real reinforcement or lining for the canal’s bottom and banks.

That poses the risk of significant water losses due to seepage into the dry, sandy soil, which would exacerbate already pressing issues of salinisation and waterlogging in irrigated lands. Indeed, according to Sadid, recent developments indicate erosion in parts of the canal’s diversion dam.

THE POLITICS OF WATER

The Amu Darya river provides 80 per cent of all accessible water resources in the region. Some assessments suggest that in the span of five or six years, upon the canal’s completion and operation, the average amount of water flowing along the river into Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will fall to 50 per cent of its overall capacity. Others, like Sadid, set the estimate at about 15 per cent.

In Uzbekistan, this would mean a dearth of vital water resources to irrigate its cotton plantations, the primary agricultural crop accounting for approximately 17 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Overall, agriculture is central to the livelihoods of nearly 40 per cent of the population. 

According to the Uzbekistan Statistical Committee, the nation’s annual water consumption stands at an average of 51 billion cubic metres, with agriculture alone accounting for about 90 per cent, mostly for watering cotton fields. The cultivation of cotton has already contributed to the region’s largest environmental calamity, the desiccation of the Aral Sea.

The problem is equally acute in Turkmenistan, where the Amu Darya feeds into the Karakum Canal, enabling irrigation and navigation along its 1,300km length and sustaining approximately 1.25 million hectares of irrigated land. Agriculture consumes 91 per cent of all the country’s water resources.

Fluctuations in the river level are already causing problems. In June 2023, for instance, farmers in Turkmenistan’s northeastern region of Lebap Velayat struggled to irrigate their cotton fields because of insufficient water reaching the area. This presents a problem for the government, which promises farmers irrigation water, fertilisers, seeds, and agricultural machinery in return for providing specific crop quantities at predetermined prices. 

With climate change exacerbating water scarcity, any reductions in supply could damage both countries’ agriculture and food security.

THE NEED FOR INTERNATIONAL AGREEMENTS

The absence of robust legal mechanisms governing water processes in the region, which affects water intake and river management, complicates the situation. 

Afghanistan is not party to the 1992 Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Waters (1992), which serves as a cornerstone of transboundary river and lake management. Nor is it part of the 1992 Almaty Agreement, which governs river use, while an earlier 1946 agreement with the USSR is no longer valid.

There is certainly room for negotiation, as Afghanistan depends on its neighbours for other vital resources. For example, Uzbekistan provides Afghanistan with electricity, while Turkmenistan supplies it with gas. 

But climate change is likely to add pressure and governments need to look beyond international agreements and adopt sustainable farming techniques, such as crop diversification, and sustainable irrigation methods, such as drip irrigation systems and the reuse of collector and drainage water. 

Sadid noted that, due to the rapid melting of the glaciers in the Pamirs, the water in the Amu Darya River will increase until 2050. However, this means it will then start shrinking, exacerbating disputes over water. 

Upgrading the irrigation systems in the wider region is key. 

“For example, Uzbekistan and other countries in the region should work on improving irrigation technology and enhancing it,” Sadid continued. “If we do not upgrade the irrigation system, undoubtedly, there will be more conflicts and disputes over water in the region.”

About the author: Marat Mamadshoev is IWPR Tajikistan’s Chief Editor

Source: This publication was published by IWPR and prepared under the “Amplify, Verify, Engage (AVE) Project”implemented with the financial support of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Norway.



IWPR

The Institute for War & Peace Reporting is headquartered in London with coordinating offices in Washington, DC and The Hague, IWPR works in over 30 countries worldwide. It is registered as a charity in the UK, as an organisation with tax-exempt status under Section 501(c)(3) in the United States, and as a charitable foundation in The Netherlands. The articles are originally produced by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting.