Nord Stream pipelines blasts: A maze of speculation

Matthias von Hein

DW
09/25/2023

One year ago, a series of explosions destroyed a central element of Europe's energy infrastructure. It remains unclear who was responsible.

When the pipelines were punctured, giant bubbles of methane gas could be seen from the air near the Danish island of Bornholm in the Baltic Sea

Danish Defense Ministry/Xinhua/picture alliance

It was 2 a.m. on September 26, 2022, when seismic monitoring stations in Denmark, Sweden and Germany registered a weak earth tremor.

At the same time, workers at the pipeline operator Nord Stream registered a sharp drop in pressure in the 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) gas pipes that connect Russia and Germany. As the sun rose over the Baltic Sea, giant bubbles of methane gas could be seen from the air near the Danish island of Bornholm. They were coming to the surface from about 80 meters (260 feet) underwater. Further tremors followed. Soon it became clear: Several sections of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines had been blown up.

A key component of German and European energy infrastructure had been destroyed.
Investigations yield nothing substantial

It is here that the trail of officially confirmed findings runs cold. Instead, a vast realm of conjecture, speculation and suspicion has opened. Straight after the attack, many pointed the finger at Moscow. Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak wrote on Twitter, today known as X: "'Gas leak' from NS-1 is nothing more that [than] a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards EU."

Reactions from officials were sharp: "Any deliberate disruption of active European energy infrastructure is unacceptable & will lead to the strongest possible response," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on the same platform after meeting with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen following the attack.

A year after the undersea explosions, it has not yet been officially confirmed who was behind the attacks on the gas pipelines. Investigations are underway in Germany, Sweden and Denmark, but very little information has been made public. Increasingly, attention is turning toward what investigative journalists are publishing.

In March 2023, a German investigative team caused a stir when it published research pointing towards Ukraine. The 15-meter yacht "Andromeda" played a key role. According to the collaborative investigation by stations of the German public service broadcaster ARD and Die Zeit newspaper, five men and one woman set sail on the boat from the Baltic Sea port of Warnemünde, in Germany, on September 6, 2022, about three weeks before the pipeline attack. Investigators from the German Federal Police Office (BKA) were reported to have found traces of explosives on board the yacht — the same substance that had been detected on the bottom of the Baltic.

Ukrainian special operations forces?

In early June, a report appeared in the Washington Post media outlet which supported this version of events. It claimed that European and American secret services had already been warned about plans for an attack by Ukrainian divers on the Nord Stream pipeline in June 2022. According to the Washington Post, the special operations forces reported directly to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhny. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, however, was not informed about the plans.

In late August, following an extensive investigation, a 20-person investigative team from German news magazine Spiegel and public broadcaster ZDF also concluded: "The clues point in one direction: toward Ukraine." Wolf-Wiedmann-Schmidt was one of the members of the team. The journalist told DW: "The investigators found nothing which could prove that Russia could be behind it, and even less which suggested that the US could be behind the attack. There is absolutely no evidence of that."

In February, a widely published report by acclaimed American journalist Seymour Hersh accused the US of initiating the explosion. Hersh had based his report on a single, anonymous source.

Who blew up Russia's Nord Stream pipeline?  13:05

US threats against Nord Stream

In any case, Hersh could point to statements made by US President Joe Biden during his inaugural visit from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in early February 2022, before Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine. At that time, Biden said in front of the gathered press: "If Russia invades ... then there will no longer be Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."

A few days after the attack, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the Nord Stream explosions offered "a tremendous opportunity to once and for all remove the dependence on Russian energy."

The German-Russian energy partnership had been a thorn in the side of the US long before the war in Ukraine — as well as for Ukraine and other European countries. Washington had long sought to prevent the construction of Nord Stream 2, a pipeline that ran parallel to its predecessor and was completed in September 2021, and used sanctions to delay it considerably. The second pipeline was never put into use, as the German government blocked approval shortly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Russian motives

Russia also had a motive to destroy the gas pipes: Because the Russian company Gazprom had already stopped the flow of gas through Nord Stream 1 in the summer of 2022 – and in doing so violated its contractually assured delivery obligations. That would have opened the door to recourse claims from its Western partners. The destruction of the pipeline allowed Gazprom to invoke "force majeure" — rendering the recourse claims invalid. This theory, however, assumes that Russia would abide by the rulings of international courts.

A war crime according to international law

According to international law, the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline would be an illegal act, even in the context of a military conflict, Bonn-based international law expert Stefan Talmon told DW. "That is because the Nord Stream pipeline is a civilian infrastructure project. According to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, destroying civilian infrastructure is not only a violation of international law, but a war crime."

At least it would be if one of the two countries at war, Russia or Ukraine, could be proven to be behind the attack. If a third country had blown up the gas pipeline, the law professor explained, "that would not come within the framework of the law of armed conflict, instead it would ultimately be a terrorist attack." Talmon is critical of possible claims for compensation because of so-called state immunity: "Before a national court, Russia as well as Ukraine or a third country could invoke this state immunity, as it also applies for such unlawful attacks."

It remains to be seen whether the perpetrator will ever be identified, and if so, whether the case of the Nord Stream explosions will ever have its day in court. If a trial were to be held, Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants it to take place in Germany.

This article was originally written in German.

Key details behind Nord Stream pipeline blasts revealed by scientists

Researchers in Norway reveal further analysis of 2022 explosions as well as a detailed timeline of events


Miranda Bryant in Oslo

THE GUARDIAN
Tue 26 Sep 2023 

Scientists investigating the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines have revealed key new details of explosions linked to the event, which remains unsolved on its first anniversary.

Researchers in Norway shared with the Guardian seismic evidence of the four explosions, becoming the first national body to publicly confirm the second two detonations, as well as revealing a detailed timeline of events.

The recently discovered additional explosions took place in an area north-east of the Danish Baltic island of Bornholm about seven seconds and 16 seconds after the two previously known detonations.

Using information from seismic stations in northern Europe and Germany, including the Swedish National Seismic Network and Danish stations on Bornholm, seismologists deployed advanced analysis techniques to observe and pinpoint the blasts.

Seismologists at Norsar, Norway’s national data centre for the comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty (CTBT), told the Guardian they had so far found a total of four explosions – one south-east of Bornholm and three north-east of the island.

Two clear seismic events, named Event S and Event N, were identified on 26 September 2022, soon after the attack. The first, on Nord Stream 2, occurred at 02:03:24 (UTC+2), and the second, on Nord Stream 1, at 19:03:50 (UTC+2).

The gas leak at the Nord Stream 2 pipeline off the Danish Baltic island of Bornholm, south of Dueodde. 

Photograph: Danish Defence/AFP/Getty Images

Norsar said there could potentially be further explosions buried in the data.

The explosions made holes in both Nord Stream 1 pipelines and one of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines. By November last year, Swedish investigators had confirmed that the breaches were caused by man-made explosives.

Investigations are continuing, but officials quoted in the US and German press have said the evidence points towards a Ukrainian-backed group, or a pro-Ukrainian group operating without the knowledge of the leadership in Kyiv.

German investigators have focused on a 51ft rental yacht called the Andromeda, which was hired by a mysterious crew of five men and one woman, at least some of whom were travelling on false passports.

Der Spiegel, which recreated the Andromeda’s journey, quoted investigators as saying the evidence all pointed at Kyiv’s involvement. There is debate, however, over whether a small crew of divers operating from a pleasure yacht would have been capable of carrying out the difficult, deep and slow dives necessary to place the explosives.

A leaked US defence document, reported by the Washington Post, showed the CIA had been tipped off by an allied European agency in June 2022, three months before the attack, that six members of Ukraine’s special operations forces were going to rent a boat and use a submersible vehicle to dive to the seabed using oxygen and helium for breathing, in order to sabotage the pipeline. But the leaked US document said the planned operation had been put on hold.

Other reports in the Scandinavian media have pointed to a cluster of Russian ships, with their identifying transponders turned off, in the vicinity of the blast sites in the days before the explosions.

The Nord Stream pipelines are operated by two companies, Nord Stream AG and Nord Stream 2 AG, both majority-owned by the Russian state energy company Gazprom. Nord Stream 1 and 2 are both twin pipelines, and together they bring up to 110bn cubic metres of gas annually from Russia to Germany.

Nord Stream 1 went into operation in 2012. Nord Stream 2 was completed in September 2021 but has never transported any gas. From the outset it was mired in controversy in the face of adamant opposition from German allies, in particular the US and Poland, who both believed the Germans were making themselves and much of the rest of Europe hostage to Russian energy supplies.

The US made clear that bilateral relations would be badly affected if Nord Stream 2 went into operation. Once the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, all talk of opening the pipeline was shelved.

Ben Dando, head of the department of test ban treaty verification at Norsar, an independent research foundation specialising in seismology and seismic monitoring. Photograph: Fredrik Naumann/Felix Features

The newly discovered events, named NB and NC, took place about seven seconds and 16 seconds after the event previously known as Event N, which they now refer to as NA.

Investigations by Denmark, Sweden and Germany are understood to be planned for publication in a joint study with Norsar. Authorities for all three countries declined to comment on the investigations.

In July, the UN security council heard investigators had found traces of undersea explosives in samples from a yacht, but that they were unable to reliably establish the identity or motives of those involved or whether it was the work of a specific country.


Using information from a number of seismic stations in northern Europe and Germany, including the Swedish National Seismic Network and the Danish stations on Bornholm, seismologists used advanced analysis techniques to observe the additional two explosions.

According to their calculations, the second and third explosions (NA and NB) were 220 metres apart from each other (with the third west of the second) and the fourth was several kilometres south-west of the second.

Pipes at the landfall facilities of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany, in 2022.

Photograph: Hannibal Hanschke/Reuters

Andreas Köhler, a senior seismologist at Norsar, said the distance between NA and NB “fit very well with the distance between both pipelines of Nord Stream 1 at the westernmost gas plume location northeast of Bornholm.” Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 both have two pipelines each.

The location of the final explosion, however, is less clear because there are less station observations. “This best fits an explosion on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, but we cannot exclude a location at Nord Stream 2,” said Kohler.

Analysis of the source mechanism from the signals showed they were generated by explosive devices.

Based in Kjeller, near Oslo, Norsar monitors events across the world including nuclear testing in North Korea, the impact of CO2 storage on the Norwegian continental shelf and conflict zones such as Ukraine.

It takes 10 minutes for shock waves to reach them after a nuclear test in North Korea, with location accuracy of 150-200 metres, leading to the claim that it is “10 minutes from Kjeller to North Korea”.

The war in Ukraine has marked a significant breakthrough for Norsar in terms of the potential use of seismology in conflict monitoring. “The technology that is used to find explosions the other side of the globe can also find explosions closer to home,” said its chief executive, Anne Strømmen Lycke.

Anne Strømmen Lycke, the CEO of Norsar. 

Photograph: Fredrik Naumann/Felix Features

\It started monitoring Ukraine for the Civil Radiation Authority due to concerns of radioactive landfall over Norway after the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. It monitors bombing around the power plant on a continuing basis and has been able to contribute evidence to the UN truth commission.

In June, its scientists were able to confirm the time and location of reports of two explosions at the Kakhovka dam using data from seismic stations in Romania and Ukraine.

“It’s amazing, the accuracy of the observation and the use of it. The UN truth commission for Ukraine has contacted us to ask us to verify some events, among them the Kakhovka dam, so they are interested in having these cold data as basis for their considerations.”

Norsar is also investigating whether its technology could be used in the future to monitor ceasefires.

“We know that we could see, based on frequency content and signal difference, between different helicopter types and likely also different weaponry types,” Strømmen Lycke said.

“And that could be something to verify and then you could actually monitor and trace after unravelling who did what. I suppose that is why the UN truth commission is interested in these things.”

A VERY REAL CONSPIRACY
Denmark investigates yacht linked to Nord Stream blasts


Gas bubbles from the Nord Stream 2 leak reaching surface of the Baltic sea in the area shows disturbance of well over one kilometre diameter near Bornholm

Thu, March 9, 2023
By Nikolaj Skydsgaard

CHRISTIANSÖ in the Baltic Sea, Denmark (Reuters) - Danish police have searched for a yacht on a tiny Baltic Sea island near the Nord Stream pipeline blast sites, the local administrator said on Thursday.

German authorities confirmed on Wednesday they had raided a ship in January that may have been used to transport explosives used to blow up the pipelines.

"The police was searching for a specific boat that had moored here in September," Soren Thiim Andersen, the highest authority on the island of Christiansö, told Reuters.

The Sept. 26 explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines, constructed to supply Russian natural gas to Europe, have become a flashpoint between the West and Russia after last year's Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Authorities in Sweden, Germany and Denmark, who are currently investigating the blasts, say the explosions were deliberate but have not said who might be responsible.

However, this week media reports in the United States and Germany suggested a pro-Ukrainian group could be responsible.

Germany's ARD broadcaster and Zeit newspaper reported that German authorities were able to identify a boat used for the sabotage operation.

The operation to place explosives on the seabed was carried out by six people, who sailed from Rostock on Sept. 6 and was later located on the Danish island of Christiansö, according to the reports.

Danish police in January searched for information about boats that had docked on Christiansö on Sept. 16-18, interviewing local residents, collecting footage from the harbour, and collected information from the harbour ticket machine, Andersen said.

Danish police declined to comment.

Christiansö is part of a small archipelago about 18 km northeast of the Baltic Sea island of Bornholm. The archipelago with just 98 inhabitants is a former naval fortress but remains under administration of the Danish defence ministry.

(Additional reporting by Johannes Birkebaek; Editing by Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen)

A global mystery: What's known about Nord Stream explosions


In this picture provided by Swedish Coast Guard, a leak from Nord Stream 2 is seen, on Sept. 28, 2022. Germany’s defense minister voiced caution Wednesday March 8, 2023 over media reports that a pro-Ukraine group was involved in blowing up the Nord Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea last year. 

(Swedish Coast Guard via AP, File)

MATTHEW LEE
Wed, March 8, 2023 

WASHINGTON (AP) — It’s a major international mystery with global consequences: Who was behind the explosions that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipelines last year in the Baltic Sea?

The answer has broad implications for European energy security but could also threaten Western unity over backing Ukraine in defending itself from Russia’s invasion. Or, it might shatter Russian and Chinese attempts to fix the blame on a hypocritical West.

Yet, nearly six months after the sabotage on the Russia-to-Germany pipelines, there is no accepted explanation. And a series of unconfirmed reports variously accusing Russia, the United States and Ukraine are filling an information vacuum as investigations into the blasts continue.

A look at the pipelines and what’s known about the explosions.

WHAT ARE THE NORD STREAM PIPELINES?

The pipelines, known as Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, are majority-owned by Russia's state-run energy giant Gazprom and used to transport natural gas from Russia to Europe under the Baltic to their termini in Germany.

Nord Stream 1 was completed and came online in 2011. Nord Stream 2 was not finished until the fall of 2021 but never became operational due to the launch of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022.

WHY ARE THEY CONTROVERSIAL?

Both pipelines bypass existing routes that go through Ukraine, meaning not only that Ukraine loses income from transit fees but is unable to directly use the gas they carry.

Of perhaps greater concern to the West, the pipelines were seen as a move by Russia to gain further, if not almost complete, control over Europe's energy supplies. Many in the West fear that Russia will use energy as a political weapon against European countries as it has done in the past with former Soviet states.

Despite those concerns and over the objections of the Obama, Trump and Biden administrations, the German government under former Chancellor Angela Merkel moved ahead with the construction of the Nord Stream 2 project. The Biden administration waived sanctions against German entities involved in Nord Stream 2 after securing a pledge from Germany that it would allow backflows of gas into Ukraine and would act to shut the pipeline down should Russia try to use it to force political concessions.

After Russia's Feb. 24, 2022, invasion of Ukraine, Germany withdrew permission for Nord Stream 2, which had not yet come online.

WHAT HAPPENED TO THE PIPELINES?

First, Gazprom halted gas flows through Nord Stream 1 on Sept. 2, 2022, citing issues related to European sanctions imposed against Russia over the war in Ukraine.

Three weeks later, both Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 were hit by explosions that rendered them inoperable and caused significant leaks of gas that was idle in the pipelines. Some have said the blasts caused the worst release of methane in history, although the full extent of the environmental damage remains unclear.

The depth of the pipeline and the complexity of using underwater explosives lent credence to the idea that only a state actor with the expertise to handle such an operation could be responsible. But no one claimed responsibility.

In the immediate aftermath of the explosions, U.S. officials suggested Russia may have been to blame while Russia accused the United States and Britain of being behind them. Investigations by European nations, including Denmark, through whose waters the pipeline travels, and Germany have yet to yield conclusive results.

WHAT THEORIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED?

After months of few developments in the probes, American investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, known for past exposes of U.S. government malfeasance, self-published a lengthy report in February alleging that President Joe Biden had ordered the sabotage, which Hersh said was carried out by the CIA with Norwegian assistance.

That report, based on a single, unidentified source, has been flatly denied by the White House, the CIA and the State Department, and no other news organization has been able to corroborate it. Russia, followed by China, however, leaped on Hersh's reporting, saying it was grounds for a new and impartial investigation conducted by the United Nations.

On Tuesday, though, The New York Times, The Washington Post and German media published stories citing U.S. and other officials as saying there was evidence Ukraine, or at least Ukrainians, may have been responsible. The Ukrainian government has denied involvement.

Germany's Die Zeit newspaper and German public broadcasters ARD and SWR reported that investigators believed that five men and a woman used a yacht hired by a Ukrainian-owned company in Poland to carry out the attack. German federal prosecutors confirmed that a boat was searched in January but have not confirmed the reported findings.

WHAT ARE THE CONSEQUENCES FOR THOSE FOUND RESPONSIBLE?

The implications of a determination that Ukraine was behind the explosions are not entirely clear. It's unlikely it would result in an immediate loss of Western support for Ukraine in the war with Russia, but it might dampen enthusiasm for future assistance if it was found that Ukraine or its agents carried out such an operation in European waters.

A determination that the United States or a proxy was responsible would give Russia and China additional leverage to go after the U.S. and its allies as hypocrites in their demands for the rule of the law, sovereignty and territorial integrity to be respected.

A finding that Russia was behind the explosions would lend weight to Western claims that Moscow is in flagrant breach of international law and willing to use energy as a weapon against Europe.

There is no indication of when the European investigations will be complete — and it seems improbable, given the animosity and mistrust surrounding the Ukraine conflict, that its findings will be universally accepted.

___

Frank Jordans in Berlin contributed.

Key details behind Nord Stream pipeline blasts revealed by scientists


Miranda Bryant in Oslo
Tue, 26 September 2023

Scientists investigating the attack on the Nord Stream pipelines have revealed key new details of explosions linked to the event, which remains unsolved on its first anniversary.

Researchers in Norway shared with the Guardian seismic evidence of the four explosions, becoming the first national body to publicly confirm the second two detonations, as well as revealing a detailed timeline of events.

The recently discovered additional explosions took place in an area north-east of the Danish Baltic island of Bornholm about seven seconds and 16 seconds after the two previously known detonations.


Using information from seismic stations in northern Europe and Germany, including the Swedish National Seismic Network and Danish stations on Bornholm, seismologists deployed advanced analysis techniques to observe and pinpoint the blasts.

Seismologists at Norsar, Norway’s national data centre for the comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty (CTBT), told the Guardian they had so far found a total of four explosions – one south-east of Bornholm and three north-east of the island.

Two clear seismic events, named Event S and Event N, were identified on 26 September 2022, soon after the attack. The first, on Nord Stream 2, occurred at 02:03:24 (UTC+2), and the second, on Nord Stream 1, at 19:03:50 (UTC+2).

Norsar said there could potentially be further explosions buried in the data.

The explosions made holes in both Nord Stream 1 pipelines and one of the Nord Stream 2 pipelines. By November last year, Swedish investigators had confirmed that the breaches were caused by man-made explosives.

Investigations are continuing, but officials quoted in the US and German press have said the evidence points towards a Ukrainian-backed group, or a pro-Ukrainian group operating without the knowledge of the leadership in Kyiv.

German investigators have focused on a 51ft rental yacht called the Andromeda, which was hired by a mysterious crew of five men and one woman, at least some of whom were travelling on false passports.

Der Spiegel, which recreated the Andromeda’s journey, quoted investigators as saying the evidence all pointed at Kyiv’s involvement. There is debate, however, over whether a small crew of divers operating from a pleasure yacht would have been capable of carrying out the difficult, deep and slow dives necessary to place the explosives.

A leaked US defence document, reported by the Washington Post, showed the CIA had been tipped off by an allied European agency in June 2022, three months before the attack, that six members of Ukraine’s special operations forces were going to rent a boat and use a submersible vehicle to dive to the seabed using oxygen and helium for breathing, in order to sabotage the pipeline. But the leaked US document said the planned operation had been put on hold.

Other reports in the Scandinavian media have pointed to a cluster of Russian ships, with their identifying transponders turned off, in the vicinity of the blast sites in the days before the explosions.

The Nord Stream pipelines are operated by two companies, Nord Stream AG and Nord Stream 2 AG, both majority-owned by the Russian state energy company Gazprom. Nord Stream 1 and 2 are both twin pipelines, and together they bring up to 110bn cubic metres of gas annually from Russia to Germany.

Nord Stream 1 went into operation in 2012. Nord Stream 2 was completed in September 2021 but has never transported any gas. From the outset it was mired in controversy in the face of adamant opposition from German allies, in particular the US and Poland, who both believed the Germans were making themselves and much of the rest of Europe hostage to Russian energy supplies.

The US made clear that bilateral relations would be badly affected if Nord Stream 2 went into operation. Once the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, all talk of opening the pipeline was shelved.

The newly discovered events, named NB and NC, took place about seven seconds and 16 seconds after the event previously known as Event N, which they now refer to as NA.

Investigations by Denmark, Sweden and Germany are understood to be planned for publication in a joint study with Norsar. Authorities for all three countries declined to comment on the investigations.

In July, the UN security council heard investigators had found traces of undersea explosives in samples from a yacht, but that they were unable to reliably establish the identity or motives of those involved or whether it was the work of a specific country.

Using information from a number of seismic stations in northern Europe and Germany, including the Swedish National Seismic Network and the Danish stations on Bornholm, seismologists used advanced analysis techniques to observe the additional two explosions.

According to their calculations, the second and third explosions (NA and NB) were 220 metres apart from each other (with the third west of the second) and the fourth was several kilometres south-west of the second.

Pipes at the landfall facilities of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in Lubmin, Germany, in 2022. Photograph: Hannibal Hanschke/Reuters

Andreas Köhler, a senior seismologist at Norsar, said the distance between NA and NB “fit very well with the distance between both pipelines of Nord Stream 1 at the westernmost gas plume location northeast of Bornholm.” Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 both have two pipelines each.

The location of the final explosion, however, is less clear because there are less station observations. “This best fits an explosion on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, but we cannot exclude a location at Nord Stream 2,” said Kohler.

Analysis of the source mechanism from the signals showed they were generated by explosive devices.

Based in Kjeller, near Oslo, Norsar monitors events across the world including nuclear testing in North Korea, the impact of CO2 storage on the Norwegian continental shelf and conflict zones such as Ukraine.

It takes 10 minutes for shock waves to reach them after a nuclear test in North Korea, with location accuracy of 150-200 metres, leading to the claim that it is “10 minutes from Kjeller to North Korea”.

The war in Ukraine has marked a significant breakthrough for Norsar in terms of the potential use of seismology in conflict monitoring. “The technology that is used to find explosions the other side of the globe can also find explosions closer to home,” said its chief executive, Anne Strømmen Lycke.

It started monitoring Ukraine for the Civil Radiation Authority due to concerns of radioactive landfall over Norway after the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. It monitors bombing around the power plant on a continuing basis and has been able to contribute evidence to the UN truth commission.

In June, its scientists were able to confirm the time and location of reports of two explosions at the Kakhovka dam using data from seismic stations in Romania and Ukraine.

“It’s amazing, the accuracy of the observation and the use of it. The UN truth commission for Ukraine has contacted us to ask us to verify some events, among them the Kakhovka dam, so they are interested in having these cold data as basis for their considerations.”

Norsar is also investigating whether its technology could be used in the future to monitor ceasefires.

“We know that we could see, based on frequency content and signal difference, between different helicopter types and likely also different weaponry types,” Strømmen Lycke said.

“And that could be something to verify and then you could actually monitor and trace after unravelling who did what. I suppose that is why the UN truth commission is interested in these things.”

Damaged Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline in re/insurance dilemma

 25th October 2022 - Author: Kassandra Jimenez-Sanchez

As the mystery surrounding the explosions that damaged undersea gas pipelines between Russia and Germany remains unsolved, Nord Stream 1’s re/insurers are trying to figure out how to handle potential claims worth hundreds of millions of dollars, reports Reuters.

According to industry sources familiar with the matter, Munich Re and syndicates within the Lloyd’s of London market are among the major underwriters for Nord Stream 1, the pipeline bringing gas to Europe under the Baltic Sea.

They added that it was unclear whether they would renew its cover. If this is to happen, the possibility of the Nord Stream 1 ever being repaired and restarted becomes more remote.

Although no claims have been filed for the pipeline damage, sources told Reuters that Nord Stream 1’s underwriters could deny any submissions on the grounds of self sabotage or war, neither of which are generally covered by insurance.

There is still speculation regarding who was behind alleged sabotage hat severed the pipelines at the centre of an energy crisis prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The only fact is that the damage was caused by powerful blasts, which was confirmed by Danish police.

Although damage would not affect the renewal of a property insurance policy, it could lead to higher premiums, according to Tim Shepherd, a Mayer Brown litigation partner.

Stakes are high for underwriters of the Nord Stream’s pipeline system, which according to its website, was built with €7.8 billion ($7.6 billion) of investment.

The news agency has not been able to identify all its underwriters. However, another source has said that Swiss insurer Zurich, also had exposure to Nord Stream 1.

“Even if you are taking a small size (of cover), it is a big risk,” one of the four industry sources said. It added, “The issue is going to be what happens if you can’t prove it is a state sponsor (responsible for the blasts), you end up with a massive claim for damage.”

Nord Stream 1’s major shareholder, with a 51% stake, is a subsidiary of Russian energy group Gazprom, a company subjected to US, UK and Canada sanctions as well as some restrictions by the European Union.

Two Reuters sources have said that renewal of Nord Stream 1 cover by the Lloyd’s syndicates would be challenging given the risk of tighter sanctions on Gazprom, which would prevent paying claims.

German energy companies Wintershall and E.ON hold 15.5% each. French energy provider ENGIE has a 9% stake. An E.ON spokesperson said Nord Stream 1’s operating company was responsible for operational issues, including insurance.

“Nord Stream AG remains in close contact with relevant authorities about the recent incident. Due to prevailing uncertainties, we as a shareholder continuously monitor developments and are in close contact with the other relevant stakeholders,” the spokesperson said.

Dutch natural gas infrastructure company N.V. Nederlandse Gasunie, which also has a 9% stake, said it would assess the situation as soon as there was more clarity.

According to Reuters, to avoid any claims, lawyers have said that Nord Stream’s insurance companies will need to prove their policy doesn’t cover the damage from the blast.

While property policies generally exclude malicious damage, policyholders often purchase additional coverage, which is likely in Nord Stream’s case, according to legal and insurance sources.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the United States and its allies blew up the pipelines, an allegation that has been dismissed by the White House. US resident Joe Biden has said damage to Nord Stream was a deliberate act of sabotage.

Moscow has denied any involvement, but the West has pointed fingers at Moscow. Earlier this month, French President Emmanuel Macron said that Nordic leaders had told their European partners it was still impossible to say at this stage who was behind the damage.

If a Western state actor was found responsible, Reuters highlighted, the damage might be designated as an act of terror, which one broking source said might be covered by insurance.

However, if Russia is implicated, insurance companies could argue it was “self-sabotage”, given Gazprom is state owned. If this is the case, as it was a deliberate act by the policyholder, they would not be allowed to file an insurance claim, David Pryce, managing partner at Fenchurch Law, explained.

Additionally, if Russia is found to be involved in the Nord Stream 1 damages, it would be considered an act of war, something that is typically excluded by insurance policies Reuters stated.

ECOCIDE

Blasts precede Baltic pipeline leaks

RUSSIA'S MAIN PIPELINES LEAK NATURAL GAS INTO SEA AFTER APPARENT EXPLOSIONS

IT DOESN'T LOOK GOOD, FOLKS.

PICTURE ALLIANCE VIA GETTY / FUTURIS

Nordic Nonsense

Russia's Nord Stream gas pipelines, which supply Europe with most of its natural gas, have sprung leaks after apparent explosions, leading to concern that the equipment might have been intentionally sabotaged as an escalation in Russia's Ukrainian conflict.

As the Wall Street Journal reports, the pipeline pair act as the main links for Russian natural gas between Europe and Germany — and by extension the rest of Western Europe — and have been at the center of the escalating Ukraine conflict, with Russian President Vladimir Putin appearing to use the pipelines and the much-needed energy they supply as leverage in the face of sanctions from the European Union.

EU Action

European authorities are currently investigating the leaks, the WSJ notes, as leaders float the potential for sabotage.

In Poland, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki declared without citing evidence that the pipelines were intentionally damaged. The president of Denmark and — curiously — Russia itself also said sabotage could be the root cause of the problem.

The Swedish Maritime Administration (SMA) announced earlier on Tuesday that it had found a total of three gas leaks in Danish and Swedish waters near a small Baltic island, the WSJ reports. The agency warned sailors to keep a distance of five nautical miles or more away from the Swedish island, and also cautioned cautioned pilots to keep at least 1,000 meters over the site of the leaks.

Seismic Proportions

Seismologists said that they detected two tremors in the area of the leaks early Monday morning, and have said that they don't believe they were of natural origin.

"We are pretty sure that the two events were blasts," Swedish National Seismic Network seismologist told the WSJ. "They are not earthquakes."

Though the pipelines were not running, gas prices rose five percent in the wake of the news, the WSJ notes — another example of how, regardless of the cause, this is a huge deal in an already-catastrophic situation in Europe.

READ MORE: Europe Investigates Unexplained Leaks in Nord Stream Gas Pipelines [The Wall Street Journal]

More on the Ukraine invasion: Russia Warns That Nuclear Plant It Captured May Leak Waste Over Europe

Futurism

Blasts precede Baltic pipeline leaks, sabotage seen likely

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Denmark said Tuesday it believed “deliberate actions” by unknown perpetrators were behind big leaks, which seismologists said followed powerful explosions, in two natural gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.


Blasts precede Baltic pipeline leaks, sabotage seen likely

© Provided by The Canadian Press

European leaders and experts pointed to possible sabotage amid the energy standoff with Russia provoked by the war in Ukraine. Although filled with gas, neither pipeline is currently supplying it to Europe.

“It is the authorities’ clear assessment that these are deliberate actions -– not accidents,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said.

But she added that “there is no information indicating who could be behind it.” Frederiksen also rejected the suggestion that the incident was an attack on Denmark, saying the leaks occurred in international waters.

The incident overshadowed the inauguration of a long-awaited pipeline that will bring Norwegian gas to Poland to bolster the continent’s energy independence from Moscow.

The first explosion was recorded early Monday southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm, said Bjorn Lund, director of the Swedish National Seismic Network. A second, stronger blast northeast of the island that night was equivalent to a magnitude-2.3 earthquake. Seismic stations in Denmark, Norway and Finland also registered the explosions.

“There’s no doubt, this is not an earthquake,” Lund said.

On Wednesday, Danish defense minister Morten Bødskov will travel to Brussels to discuss the leaks with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.

Denmark’s Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod said nearby Sweden, Germany and Poland have been kept informed, and “we will inform and reach out to Russia in this case.”

He said Denmark’s foreign intelligence service didn’t see any increased military threat against Denmark after the three leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines.

They created a foamy white area on the water's surface, images released by Denmark's military show. Danish Energy Minister Dan Jørgensen said that “we cannot say how long the leak will go" on for as the gas has not been turned off. There was no indication when the gas would be turned off.

The German operator of the pipelines, Nord Stream AG, said it’s preparing a survey to assess the damage in cooperation with local authorities.

“Currently, it is not possible to estimate a timeframe for restoring the gas transport infrastructure,” a company statement said. “The causes of the incident will be clarified as a result of the investigation.”

In Sweden, acting Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said “it is probably a case of sabotage,” but not an attack on Sweden.

Andersson added that neighboring oil-rich Norway “has informed us about increased drone activity in the North Sea and the measures they have taken in connection with it.”

Foreign Minister Ann Linde said that Sweden “(is) not ruling out any scenarios and we will not speculate about motive or actor.”

Related video: Ukraine accuses Russia of sabotaging gas pipelines
Duration 0:23   View on Watch

Baltic Pipe: Norway-Poland gas pipeline opens in key move to cut dependency on Russia

Norway, Poland open new gas pipeline as Nord Stream leaks

France 24

The escaped natural gas is made up almost entirely of methane. — the second biggest contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide. David Hastings, a retired chemical oceanographer in Gainesville, Florida, said much of the gas would rise through the sea and enter the atmosphere. “There is no question that the largest environmental impact of this is to the climate, because methane is a really potent greenhouse gas,” he said.

According to United Nations data, methane is 82.5 times worse for the climate than carbon dioxide over a 20-year time frame, because it so effectively absorbs the heat of the sun.

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called the events “an act of sabotage." During a ceremony in northwestern Poland, Morawiecki, Denmark's Frederiksen and Polish President Andrzej Duda symbolically opened the valve of a yellow pipe belonging to the Baltic Pipe, a new system sending Norwegian gas across Denmark to Poland.

"The era of Russian domination in the gas sphere is coming to an end," Morawiecki declared. “An era that was marked by blackmail, threats and extortion.”

No official presented evidence of what caused the leaks, but with distrust of Russia running high, some feared Moscow sabotaged its own infrastructure out of spite or to warn that pipelines are vulnerable to attack. The leaks raised the stakes on whether energy infrastructure was being targeted and led to a small bump in natural gas prices.

“We can clearly see that this is an act of sabotage, an act that probably means a next step of escalation in the situation that we are dealing with in Ukraine,” Morawiecki said.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters that American officials have not confirmed sabotage or an attack.

Anders Puck Nielsen, a researcher with the Center for Maritime Operations at the Royal Danish Defence College, said the timing of the leaks was “conspicuous” given the ceremony for the Baltic Pipe. He said perhaps someone sought “to send a signal that something could happen to the Norwegian gas.”

The extent of the damage means the Nord Stream pipelines are unlikely to be able to carry any gas to Europe this winter even if there was political will to bring them online, analysts at the Eurasia Group said. Russia has halted flows on the 1,224-kilometer (760-mile) Nord Stream 1 pipeline during the war, while Germany prevented them from ever starting in the parallel Nord Stream 2.

“Depending on the scale of the damage, the leaks could even mean a permanent closure of both lines,” analysts Henning Gloystein and Jason Bush wrote.

Puck Nielsen said of possible sabotage that “technically speaking, this is not difficult. It just requires a boat. It requires some divers that know how to handle explosive devices.”

“But I think if we look at who would actually benefit from disturbances, more chaos on the gas market in Europe, I think there’s basically only one actor right now that actually benefits from more uncertainty, and that is Russia," he said.

Asked if the leaks may have been caused by sabotage, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “no version could be excluded.”

“This is an unprecedented situation that requires an urgent investigation. We are extremely worried by this news,” he said in a conference call with reporters.

Danish and Swedish maritime authorities issued navigation warnings, and established a prohibited area for vessels. Ships may lose buoyancy, and there may also be a risk of ignition above the water and in the air.

The Nord Stream pipelines have been at the center of an energy clash between Europe and Russia since the invasion of Ukraine in late February. Plunging Russian gas supplies have caused prices to soar, pressuring governments to help ease the pain of sky-high energy bills for households and businesses as winter nears. The crisis also has raised fears of rationing and recession.

The Baltic Pipe is a prominent element in the European Union's search for energy security and is to start bringing Norwegian gas through Denmark and along the Baltic Sea to Poland on Oct. 1.

Simone Tagliapietra, an energy expert with the Bruegel think tank in Brussels, speculated that the leaks could have been caused by Russian sabotage or anti-Russian sabotage.

One possibility is Russia signaling it “is breaking forever with Western Europe and Germany” as Poland inaugurates its pipeline with Norway, he said.

“In any case, this is a stark reminder of the exposure to risk of Europe’s gas infrastructure,” Tagliapietra said.

___

Olsen reported from Copenhagen, Denmark, and Keyton from Stockholm. Associated Press writers Vanessa Gera in Warsaw, Adam Schreck in Kyiv, Ukraine, Kirsten Grieshaber in Berlin, and David McHugh in Frankfurt, Germany, contributed.

Monika Scislowska, Jan M. Olsen And David Keyton, The Associated Press

Nord Stream operator decries ‘unprecedented’ damage to three pipelines

Mary Ilyushina, Meg Kelly - 16h ago

The operator of the Nord Stream pipelines built to carry Russian gas to Europe on Tuesday reported “unprecedented” damage to the system, raising suspicions of sabotage after mysterious leaks caused sudden drops in pressure to three underwater lines in the Baltic Sea.


Nord Stream operator decries ‘unprecedented’ damage to three pipelines

© Danish Defence Command/Via Reuters

The leaks had no immediate impact on energy supplies to the European Union but raised concerns about serious environmental damage from methane, a greenhouse gas that is a major contributor to climate change.

“The damage that occurred in one day simultaneously at three lines of offshore pipelines of the Nord Stream system are unprecedented,” the company, Nord Stream AG, said in a statement to Russian state news agencies.Russia’s Gazprom says it won’t reopen Nord Stream gas pipeline to Europe as planned

Two of the damaged pipes are part of Nord Stream 1, normally a major transmission line of Russian natural gas to Europe, while the third is part of Nord Stream 2, which Western nations have blocked from becoming fully operational as part of sanctions over Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Russia has cut transmission through Nord Stream 1 in retaliation for Western sanctions, though the Kremlin has also blamed technical failures. Gas, however, remains in the undersea pipelines even if deliveries are halted.

Officials said that the damage may have been sabotage. “It is hard to imagine that it is accidental,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said in Poland, according to the Danish newspaper Politiken. “We cannot rule out sabotage, but it is too early to conclude.”


Part of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline shown in 2011. After mysterious drops in pressure overnight, the operator of the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 reported damage to three underwater pipes in the Baltic Sea. (John MacDougall/AFP via Getty Images)© John MacDougall/AFP/Getty Images

Frederiksen spoke at a ceremony in Goleniów, Poland, on Tuesday for the opening of the new Baltic Pipe, which will carry natural gas to Poland and neighboring countries from Norway through Denmark.

Europe has been scrambling to diversify supplies and reduce reliance on Russian energy.

After Russia cut off Nord Stream 1 in retaliation for the sanctions, halting supplies to Germany, Poland and other nations, European leaders, including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, accused the Kremlin of using fossil fuels for “blackmail.”

An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia was likely to blame for the new leaks.

“‘Gas leak’ from NS-1 is nothing more that a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression toward EU,” the adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak tweeted.

A spokesman for the European Commission said that although gas supplies were not at risk because of the new leaks, officials were concerned about potential environmental damage.

“This hasn’t affected the security of supply as yet,” the spokesman, Tim McPhie, said. “As you know deliveries have been zero on Nord Stream 1 anyway, and Nord Stream 2 is not yet authorized to operate. We are also analyzing the potential impact of these leaks of methane, which is a gas which of course has considerable effects on climate change, and we are in touch with the member states about the potential impact on maritime navigation.”

Henning Gloystein, an energy analyst with the Eurasia group, told The Washington Post, the prospect of this burst being an accident is “terribly improbable” given there are at least three places with breaks in one area. Most European governments are now putting their energy infrastructure on a heightened alert, he said, because of fears this was the beginning of an asymmetrical attack.

Moreover, the combustible gas leak is dangerous for people and the surrounding environment, he said.

“A massive leak of gas is very methane heavy,” Gloystein stressed, which is “bad for the ocean immediately and will rise into the atmosphere.”

Still, the damage to the three pipelines delivered yet another reminder that Europe must brace for a difficult winter without reliable supplies of Russian gas. In its statement the Nord Stream operator said “it is impossible to estimate” when the pipelines will be fixed.

When Russia halted supplies via Nord Stream 1 earlier this month citing technical problems, it accused the West of refusing to provide turbines needed for repairs.

Earlier on Tuesday, the Swedish Maritime Authority had issued a warning of two leaks in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in Swedish and Danish waters. The warning came shortly after a leak on the nearby Nord Stream 2 pipe was discovered in Danish waters.

Danish and Swedish authorities said they were investigating the leaks and introduced a five-mile radius exclusion zone, near the Danish island of Bornholm, where ships are banned.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday said the Russian government was “extremely concerned” about the damage.

“This is very alarming information, there is some damage in the pipe in the Danish economic zone, it is not yet clear what kind,” he told reporters during his daily conference call. “The pressure has dropped considerably. This is an unprecedented situation that needs to be dealt with urgently.”

Peskov also said Russia is not “excluding any options” after a report by the German newspaper Tagesspiegel, suggesting potential sabotage.

The European Commission’s chief spokesman, Eric Mamer, said the cause of the leaks was still unknown. “We believe we do not have the elements in order to determine what is the reason for the leak,” Mamer said. “Obviously, any act of sabotage on any infrastructure is something that we would condemn.”

Ilyushina reported from Riga, Latvia, Kelly from Berlin. Beatriz Rios in Brussels contributed to this report.

ECOCIDE TOO - COLD WAR 2.0

Swedes refuse Russian request for pipeline probe info

In this picture provided by Swedish Coast Guard, the gas leak in the Baltic Sea from Nord Stream photographed from the Coast Guard's aircraft on Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2022. A fourth leak on the Nord Stream pipelines has been reported off southern Sweden. Earlier, three leaks had been reported on the two underwater pipelines running from Russia to Germany. 

(Swedish Coast Guard via AP)

Tue, October 11, 2022 

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Sweden’s prime minister says that her country cannot share with Russia details from its probe into last month's underwater explosions that ruptured two key gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, citing confidentiality surrounding the investigation.

“In Sweden there is secrecy around preliminary investigation and that also applies in this case,” Magdalena Andersson said of the blast and ruptures that happened in international waters off Sweden's Baltic coastline but within the country's exclusive economic zone.

The explosions ruptured the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which until Russia cut off supplies at the end of August was its main gas supply route to Germany. They also damaged the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which never entered service as Germany suspended its certification process shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in February. The damaged pipelines discharged huge amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the air.

Russia formally asked Sweden’s government to be part of the Swedish investigation in a letter dated Oct. 6.

“We’re still working on how we exactly formulate the answer,” Andersson said Monday at a naval base in southern Sweden.

In its preliminary investigation, Sweden’s domestic security agency said last week that its probe “has strengthened the suspicions of serious sabotage” as the cause of the blasts. Sweden’s prosecutor in charge of the investigation said evidence at the site has been seized.

The Swedish Security Service said the probe confirmed that “detonations” caused extensive damage to the pipelines. Authorities had said when the four leaks off Sweden and Denmark first surfaced that explosions were recorded in the area.

In a separate statement, Swedish prosecutor Mats Ljungqvist said “seizures have been made at the crime scene and these will now be investigated.” Ljungqvist, who led the preliminary investigation, did not identify the seized evidence.

In Denmark, authorities remained tight-lipped about its investigation. Denmark broadcaster TV2 reported from the site that ships with the Danish and German navy ships were in the area.

German federal prosecutors, who investigate national security cases, also have opened an investigation against persons unknown on suspicion of deliberately causing an explosion and anti-constitutional sabotage.

The German investigation comes on top of the Danish and Swedish probes but are carried out with the European Union framework.

German federal prosecutors said the reason for them getting involved as well is that an attack on energy supplies could affect Germany’s external and domestic security. On Sunday, authorities said that two German boats had set off for the area where the leaks occurred to look into what happened.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the West of attacking the pipelines, which the United States and its allies vehemently denied.

Germany opens investigation of Baltic gas pipeline blasts

In this photo provided by the Armed Forces of Denmark, a view the disturbance in the water above the gas leak, in the Baltic Sea, Thursday, Sept. 29, 2022. Following the suspected sabotage this week of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines that carry Russian natural gas to Europe, there were two leaks off Sweden, including a large one above North Stream 1, and a smaller one above North Stream 2. 

(Rune Dyrholm/Armed Forces of Denmark via AP)

Mon, October 10, 2022 

BERLIN (AP) — German prosecutors on Monday opened an investigation into the suspected sabotage of two gas pipelines built to bring Russian gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea.

Undersea explosions late last month ruptured the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which until Russia cut off supplies at the end of August was its main supply route to Germany. They also damaged the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which never entered service as Germany suspended its certification process shortly before Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

German federal prosecutors, who investigate national security cases, said they have opened an investigation against persons unknown on suspicion of deliberately causing an explosion and anticonstitutional sabotage.

Prosecutors said that there is sufficient evidence that the pipelines were damaged by at least two deliberate detonations, and the aim of their investigation is to help identify the perpetrator or perpetrators as well as a possible motive.

The German investigation comes on top of a probe in Sweden. A prosecutor there said last week that evidence had been seized at the site.

The governments of Denmark and Sweden previously said they suspected that several hundred pounds of explosives were involved in carrying out a deliberate act of sabotage. The leaks from Nord Stream 1 and 2 discharged huge amounts of methane into the air.

German federal prosecutors said the reason for them getting involved as well is that an attack on energy supplies could affect Germany's external and domestic security. On Sunday, authorities said that two German boats had set off for the area where the leaks occurred to look into what happened.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has accused the West of attacking the pipelines, which the United States and its allies vehemently denied.

___

Follow the AP’s coverage of the war at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

SO WHAT
Gazprom: NATO mine destroyer was found at Nord Stream 1 in 2015

The logo of Gazprom is displayed on a screen during the Saint Petersburg 

international gas forum in Saint Petersburg


Mon, October 10, 2022

MOSCOW (Reuters) - A spokesperson for Russian energy giant Gazprom said on Monday that a mine destroyer discovered at the Nord Stream 1 offshore gas pipeline in 2015 belonged to NATO.

Nord Stream reported on that date in 2015 that a "munitions object" had been cleared by the Swedish armed forces, without giving more detail on the object.

Gazprom spokesperson Sergei Kupriyanov told Russian state television on Monday that a NATO device, called a SeaFox, was retrieved from a depth of around 40 metres (125 feet) and made safe.

"Gas transportation, halted because of the incident, was restored," he said, according to a published extract from his TV appearance.

Gazprom owns 51% in Swiss-based Nord Stream AG, operator of Nord Stream 1.

An international investigation is underway into a rupture, discovered late last month, in the Russian-built Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines on the bed of the Baltic Sea.

The pipelines, which have become a flashpoint in the Ukraine crisis, have been leaking gas into the Baltic Sea off the coast of Denmark and Sweden.

Europe suspects an act of sabotage that Moscow quickly sought to pin on the West, suggesting the United States stood to gain.

(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Jan Harvey and Ron Popeski)

What the Nord Stream Insurers Refusal To Pay Reveals About the Explosions

by Jeffrey Brodsky Posted onMay 06, 2024

This originally appeared at CovertAction Magazine and is reprinted with the author’s permission.

Lloyd’s of London and Bermuda-based Arch Insurance deny the €400 million claim by Nord Stream AG, arguing their policies do not provide coverage for the 2022 underwater explosions that ruptured the natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea because the damage was inflicted by “a government.”

But “the defendants’ argument is prima facie irrelevant,” says an expert in law of the sea.

Nord Stream AG last month brought a €400 million lawsuit against Lloyd’s of London and Arch Insurance in the High Court for refusing to pay an indemnity for the subsea blasts that ripped apart the Nord Stream 1 pipeline that carried natural gas from Russia to Germany along the floor of the Baltic Sea.

The written defense to the lawsuit, filed on behalf of Lloyd’s of London and Bermuda-based Arch Insurance, was made public last week by Swedish engineer Erik Andersson, who led the only private investigative expedition (in which I participated) to all four blast sites of the Nord Stream pipelines. It states that the “Defendants will rely on, inter alia, the fact that the Explosion Damage could only have (or, at least, was more likely than not to have) been inflicted by or under the order of a government.”

Said Mahmoudi, a legal scholar with expertise in law of the sea, international environmental law, use of force, international organizations and state immunity, believes the defendants’ position is “groundless.”

“The defendants’ argument is prima facie irrelevant if one cannot prove that the damage is caused by a named government that has been directly involved in a war in the area,” said Dr. Mahmoudi. “The burden of proof in this case is in my view on the defendant.”

Who perpetrated the Nord Stream sabotage, which stands as the largest act of industrial sabotage in history and the most pressing geo-political mystery of the century, is of great consequence for a future court decision. Initial reports in mainstream media blamed Russia without evidence.

The lead prosecutor on the Swedish investigation said the belief that Russia was responsible was “not logical,” while German investigators have “dismissed” the relevance of observed Russian vessels near the crime scene. Not a shred of the data, obtained during our independent expedition to the blast sites—including underwater drone images, videos and sonar images—has implicated Russia.

Reporting has either imputed guilt to the U.S. or Ukraine, as well as a theory suggesting the UK may be behind it. Seymour Hersh, the veteran investigative journalist, reported that United States Navy divers, in a CIA operation ordered by President Joe Biden, planted the bombs on the pipelines. Equally detailed reporting in German media claims to have identified the alleged financial backer and the apparent members of a six-person crew of “pro-Ukrainians” who allegedly transported the explosives operating from a 50-foot pleasure yacht called Andromeda.

It seems that, should the U.S. or the UK be the proven culprit, the insurers will prevail in court. What has not been previously reported, though, is whether the insurers would be forced to cover the damage from explosions if the perpetrator were Ukraine, for the defendants may have argued the small team of pro-Ukrainian operatives was rogue, not specifically tasked by a government with blowing up the pipelines.

But reporting in at least two articles in The Washington Post, which often operates as a public relations firm for the U.S. national security and intelligence services, alleges the “attackers were not rogue operatives,” but “those involved reported directly to Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer [who is now ambassador to the UK], who was put in charge so that the nation’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, wouldn’t know about the operation.” (Emphasis added.)

General Valerii Zaluzhnyi [Source: dynamo.kiev.ua]

So, the possible pro-Ukrainian saboteurs were neither rogue nor private, according to the Post. But because the president of a nation state, in this case, the president of Ukraine, was allegedly unaware of the attack, would the court interpret this as “the Explosion Damage could only have…been inflicted by or under the order of a government”? Or would the court rule that the sabotage was not a government-ordered act but merely greenlighted by a country’s highest-ranking military officer yet not its president?

The answer, “no,” has not been previously reported.

“If this is true and the court accepts that the explosions have been ordered and organized by a high-ranking Ukrainian military officer, even without the president’s knowledge, then the damage is attributable to Ukraine, and the state of Ukraine will be responsible for the damage,” said Dr. Mahmoudi. “Zelensky’s lack of knowledge about this operation has no effect on the issue of State responsibility.”

Another fascinating aspect of the lawsuit is the question of sanctions against the pipelines. “In the event that the Defendants are found to be liable to pay an indemnity and/or damages,” the defense brief states, “the Defendants reserve their position as to whether any such payment would be prohibited by any applicable economic sanctions that may be in force at the time any such payment is required to be made.”

Resulting questions arise: Should future sanctions be levied against Nord Stream 1, even if these sanctions are to be put into force after the lawsuit had already been filed, could the insurers be let off the hook?

“In such a case, the order of the court cannot for the time being be executed due to the new sanctions,” explained Dr. Mahmoudi, “but the court can still decide an indemnity that will be paid when the sanctions are lifted in [the] future.”

That the court can rule the defendants must honor the policy’s indemnity obligations once any future sanctions may be lifted has not been previously reported.

Still, the insurers may maneuver to protect themselves using subsequent sanctions as a pretense to skirt payment. In 2021, 16 insurance companies withdrew their support for Nord Stream 2, according to a leaked document from the Biden administration. Apparently, the insurers were pressured as the U.S. threatened to “examine entities involved in potentially sanctionable activity.” Both Lloyd’s of London and Arch Insurance are listed as companies that cowered before the threats.

The current legal and geo-political milieu of the U.S.-led, “rules-based” global order may be propitious for the defendants: The West sanctions Nord Stream 2, leaving it bereft of insurance coverage, and subsequently destroys it along with its twin pipeline, Nord Stream 1. Then the West may, retroactively, sanction Nord Stream 1 in advance of a court ruling that giant Western insurers have to pay up to the tune of around €400 million.

[Source: flipboard.com]

At the same time, the dynamics of the lawsuit are potentially uncomfortable for the West. It appears that two behemoth Western insurers will be legally compelled to pay substantial indemnities if they cannot demonstrate that the Nord Stream sabotage was ordered and executed by a government. The defendants’ brief references the Russian-Ukraine war, but makes no mention of a possible Russian self-sabotage. This could be seen as an admission that a Western nation, not Russia, is the perpetrator of the attack.

Because the insurance policy seems to cover “terrorism” but not “war,” compensation for the plaintiff would only be possible if the attack were deemed the former. However, even if the insurance covers only terrorism, a distinction has to be made between when a state is involved and when there is no state involvement.

“Even if the sabotage is an act of terrorism, the author of the act can be a state or a private entity,” said Dr. Mahmoudi. “If a private entity, the insurance company, is the only source for the compensation of damage; if a state is responsible for the terrorist act, theoretically, it is both the insurance company and that state that have a legal obligation to compensate the damage.”

Both the defendant and plaintiff in the case appear to argue that the obligation to prove the attack was government-ordered rests with the other party. As a general rule, the burden of proving an insurance policy applies and therefore covers damages usually lies upon the insured.

In order to argue the opposite—that it is the defendant who must prove the policy does not cover the damages—the plaintiff relies on the provision that, “in the event of any conflict of interpretation between the General Conditions and the specific insuring conditions…then the broadest possible interpretation to the benefit of the Insured should always prevail,” according to the plaintiff’s legal brief.

Dr. Mahmoudi confirms this.

“The normal order of arguing how the damage has happened is not applicable in such cases. It is not insured luggage that is damaged during air travel and the claimant must prove that the damage did not exist before and has been inflicted during the trip,” said Dr. Mahmoudi. “It is the insurer that has an obligation to show that one of the exceptions of the insurance agreement applies, not vice versa.”

The defendants contend that there is a distinction between “sovereign power” and “government,” arguing that, if the saboteurs were agents of a government, they should not be held liable. But it seems exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, for the insurers’ legal team to prove the attack was planned and carried out under the order of a mere sovereign power and not a government.

In fact, even convincing a judge that the saboteurs acted only on behalf of a sovereign power would have no bearing on a forthcoming court ruling, according to Dr. Mahmoud’s understanding of the application of international law to this case, which has not been previously reported.

“There is no difference between ‘sovereign power’ and ‘government’ in this context,” Dr. Mahmoudi contends. “They are the same, and, as such, different from private and commercial acts/agents.”

That there is no legal distinction between “sovereign power” and “government” in the lawsuit’s context has not been previously reported.

Nord Stream AG is not just a Russian company; it is an international consortium in which Russia’s Gazprom holds a 51% stake, alongside German, French and Dutch energy companies. In other words, to avoid a gargantuan indemnity obligation, the Western insurers will likely be made to prove a Western nation destroyed critical infrastructure valued at around €10 billion, 49% of which was owned by Western companies.

Germany is one of the three countries conducting an investigation into the sabotage, and two of its own energy firms had stakes in Nord Stream 1. (Sweden and Denmark are the other two, but both in February closed their probes without unmasking the perpetrator.)

In such a scenario—where the defendants are compelled to prove responsibility for the attack to prevail in court—what legal recourse do the insurers have? Can they sue Germany, Sweden and/or Denmark for not disclosing the results of their investigations into the sabotage? Similarly, can the plaintiff sue the same countries for withholding their probes’ findings?

The answer, “no,” has not been previously reported.

“None of these states have any legal obligation to disclose the results of their investigations,” said Dr. Mahmoudi. “The dispute between Nord Stream AG and the insurance company is of pure commercial nature even if the claimant is mainly state-owned.”

What about the investors? Could the investors, who potentially lost billions, sue any or all of the three investigating countries?

According to Dr. Mahmoudi, the answer to this “interesting legal question” is far from clear-cut. He cited case law for legal precedent but called any legal action a “remote possibility” for investors and described it as a “long and uncertain procedure.”

“A state whose citizens constitute majority shareholders of a company may sue before the International Court of Justice another state that is responsible for great financial loss of those citizens as a result of a national decision that breaches international law,” said Dr. Mahmoudi.

Some conditions must be met. A state must agree to grant its nationals the right to sue, and this protection can only be given to its own citizens, though there is no obligation on the part of the state to do so. “Thus, the citizens of Germany, Sweden, and Denmark cannot rely on this possibility,” said Dr. Mahmoudi.

“States are normally reluctant to get involved in such costly and resource-demanding disputes for the sake of their own nationals,” he added.

Nevertheless, the legal dispute between Nord Stream AG and the Western insurers reflects the enormous deceit surrounding the Nord Stream sabotage as a whole. For Denmark, Sweden and Germany, admitting that the perpetrator is either the U.S. or Ukraine, or both acting in concert, would be humiliating. And should any of those three investigating countries attribute the sabotage to Ukraine, it would amount to an admission that the country they support in the conflict with Russia committed an act of war against them.

If the United States were found to be the perpetrator, it would mean that the supposed guarantor of European security has executed an attack against its protectorates. Telling the truth would be mortifying.

Jeffrey Brodsky is the only journalist to travel to all four blast sites of the Nord Stream sabotage. Jeff writes the “Un Americano en España” column at Diario16 and his writings have appeared in magazines and newspapers in the U.S. and Europe. Find Jeff @JeffreyBrodsky5 or www.jeffreybrodsky.com or on Substack.