Hiker captures stunning cloud on hilltop
A hiker captured the cloud rolling across a hill in England.
A LITTLE BIT O' HEAVEN SEAMUS O' MOCHERY
Wednesday, July 01, 2020
Big pharma trade group blasted as ‘morally bankrupt’ for suing to block Minnesota insulin affordability law
July 1, 2020 By Common Dreams
The law is named for Alec Smith, an uninsured 26-year-old who died in 2017 after rationing his insulin.
A Big Pharma trade group is under fire for filing a federal lawsuit late Tuesday against Minnesota’s Alec Smith Insulin Affordability Act mere hours before it took effect.
State Sen. Matt Little, a member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), decried the move as “morally bankrupt” and “devoid of humanity.” In a Tuesday night tweet, Little also vowed: “I will spend my entire life fighting these soulless companies. No one should get sick or die from an inability to afford life-sustaining insulin.”
The law in question is named for an uninsured 26-year-old diabetic who died in 2017 of complications from rationing his insulin because he couldn’t afford the medicine and related supplies after aging off his mother’s health insurance. After state lawmakers overwhelmingly approved the measure, DFL Gov. Tim Walz signed it into law this April.
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As MPR News explains:
Under the law, people with diabetes who can’t afford the essential medicine will be able to get 30-day supplies with no more than a $35 copay. A separate income-based program is established for those with needs that extend beyond that.
Drug makers are required to participate. If they don’t, they would face a series of escalating fines
(
— Lija Greenseid, PhD
July 1, 2020 By Common Dreams
The law is named for Alec Smith, an uninsured 26-year-old who died in 2017 after rationing his insulin.
A Big Pharma trade group is under fire for filing a federal lawsuit late Tuesday against Minnesota’s Alec Smith Insulin Affordability Act mere hours before it took effect.
State Sen. Matt Little, a member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), decried the move as “morally bankrupt” and “devoid of humanity.” In a Tuesday night tweet, Little also vowed: “I will spend my entire life fighting these soulless companies. No one should get sick or die from an inability to afford life-sustaining insulin.”
The law in question is named for an uninsured 26-year-old diabetic who died in 2017 of complications from rationing his insulin because he couldn’t afford the medicine and related supplies after aging off his mother’s health insurance. After state lawmakers overwhelmingly approved the measure, DFL Gov. Tim Walz signed it into law this April.
Defend democracy. Click to invest in courageous progressive journalism today.
As MPR News explains:
Under the law, people with diabetes who can’t afford the essential medicine will be able to get 30-day supplies with no more than a $35 copay. A separate income-based program is established for those with needs that extend beyond that.
Drug makers are required to participate. If they don’t, they would face a series of escalating fines
The suit was filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Minnesota by Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA). The drug industry group claims the measure is unconstitutional, arguing in the complaint (pdf) that “a state cannot simply commandeer private property to achieve its public policy goals.”
An PhRMA spokesperson told Brian Bakst of MPR News that “we are not seeking an emergency ruling to block the law from going into effect, but we think the law is unconstitutional and that the court should strike it down after it hears our challenge.”
The advocacy group Public Citizen noted the tragic death of the law’s namesake and denounced PhRMA’s suit as “beyond unconscionable.”
what stage of capitalism is this? https://t.co/1P5csxGVet
— David Sirota (@davidsirota) July 1, 2020
Nicole Smith-Holt, Alec Smith’s mother, also took to Twitter to condemn PhRMA’s lawsuit and accuse drug companies of violating human rights.
Do you know what I think is unconstitutional? @PhRMA determining the value of my life, of your life of my sons life!! @PhRMA determining who lives and dies, I think that is unconstitutional. These companies are violating our human rights, that is unconstitutional. #insulin4all https://t.co/5SZeqNL9a8
— Nicole Smith-Holt #insulin4all (@NSmithholt12) July 1, 2020
Smith-Holt was not the only outraged parent of a diabetic. Saint Paul-based healthcare advocate Lija Greenseid wrote in a series of tweets that she felt “so deflated” and “duped by lawmakers,” calling out GOP state senators who she said “assured advocates that they had worked with the manufacturers to develop their plan.”
Phrma’s lawsuit against Alec’s Law really hurts. As the mom of a kid with Type 1 diabetes, I spent so much of my time for 2 years advocating for affordable insulin. I feel so deflated. We were duped by lawmakers. And people will continue to suffer and die.
— Lija Greenseid, PhD
An PhRMA spokesperson told Brian Bakst of MPR News that “we are not seeking an emergency ruling to block the law from going into effect, but we think the law is unconstitutional and that the court should strike it down after it hears our challenge.”
The advocacy group Public Citizen noted the tragic death of the law’s namesake and denounced PhRMA’s suit as “beyond unconscionable.”
what stage of capitalism is this? https://t.co/1P5csxGVet
— David Sirota (@davidsirota) July 1, 2020
Nicole Smith-Holt, Alec Smith’s mother, also took to Twitter to condemn PhRMA’s lawsuit and accuse drug companies of violating human rights.
Do you know what I think is unconstitutional? @PhRMA determining the value of my life, of your life of my sons life!! @PhRMA determining who lives and dies, I think that is unconstitutional. These companies are violating our human rights, that is unconstitutional. #insulin4all https://t.co/5SZeqNL9a8
— Nicole Smith-Holt #insulin4all (@NSmithholt12) July 1, 2020
Smith-Holt was not the only outraged parent of a diabetic. Saint Paul-based healthcare advocate Lija Greenseid wrote in a series of tweets that she felt “so deflated” and “duped by lawmakers,” calling out GOP state senators who she said “assured advocates that they had worked with the manufacturers to develop their plan.”
Phrma’s lawsuit against Alec’s Law really hurts. As the mom of a kid with Type 1 diabetes, I spent so much of my time for 2 years advocating for affordable insulin. I feel so deflated. We were duped by lawmakers. And people will continue to suffer and die.
— Lija Greenseid, PhD
(
@Lija27) July 1, 2020
GOP senators assured advocates that they had worked with the manufacturers to develop their plan. Advocates wanted a fee on the manufacturers and were told by GOP lawmakers that it would get hung up in court and not help anyone. Well, here we are anyway with their plan.
GOP senators assured advocates that they had worked with the manufacturers to develop their plan. Advocates wanted a fee on the manufacturers and were told by GOP lawmakers that it would get hung up in court and not help anyone. Well, here we are anyway with their plan.
— Lija Greenseid, PhD
(@Lija27) July 1, 2020
GOP state Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka expressed disappointment with the suit in a written statement reported by MPR News. “Senate Republicans remain committed to providing emergency insulin for those in crisis no matter what happens with this poorly timed lawsuit,” Gazelka said.
State Attorney General Keith Ellison (DFL) tweeted Wednesday morning in response to PhRMA’s “attack” on the law that “we look forward to defending the people of Minnesota in court against this morally repugnant behavior.
GOP state Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka expressed disappointment with the suit in a written statement reported by MPR News. “Senate Republicans remain committed to providing emergency insulin for those in crisis no matter what happens with this poorly timed lawsuit,” Gazelka said.
State Attorney General Keith Ellison (DFL) tweeted Wednesday morning in response to PhRMA’s “attack” on the law that “we look forward to defending the people of Minnesota in court against this morally repugnant behavior.
‘Without urgent government intervention,’ koalas face extinction in New South Wales by 2050
July 1, 2020 By Common Dreams
“If urgent action isn’t taken now, NSW is taking a chainsaw to the last koala tree in the bush.”
Koalas in the Australian state of New South Wales will be extinct before 2050 “without urgent government intervention,” a new report warns.
The report, released Tuesday, is the result of a year-long parliamentary inquiry examining the state of the animal and their habitat. The multi-party committee tasked with the effort was led by Greens Member of the Legislative Council Cate Faehrmann.
Among the key findings was that “following the 2019-2020 bushfires and the general trend of population decline, the current estimated number of 36,000 koalas in New South Wales is outdated and unreliable.” At least 5,000 koalas died in the fires.
And, as a result of the scale of koala population losses due to those fires, and “without urgent government intervention to protect habitat and address all other threats, the koala will become extinct in New South Wales before 2050,” the inquiry found.
The most serious threat to the koalas is “the fragmentation and loss of habitat.” Some parts of koala habitat on public land in NSW witnessed “a devastating loss of up to 81 percent” because of the fires.
The climate crisis is also dealing a blow to the koala population “by affecting the quality of their food and habitat.” That crisis is also “compounding the severity and impact of other threats, such as drought and bushfires, on koala populations,” the report noted.
The report also laid out 42 recommendations, starting off with a call for state authorities to accurately determine koala population numbers. Rounding out the top three are for the NSW government to “urgently prioritize the protection of koala habitat and corridors in the planning and implementation stages of urban growth areas” and to “fund and support local councils to conserve koala habitat, including by identifying pockets of urban bushland to include in the state’s protected area network.”
“The only way our children’s grandchildren will see a koala in the wild in NSW will be if the government acts upon the committee’s recommendations,” Faehrmann wrote in the foreword to the report.
7 News Australia reported on the inquiry’s recommendations, including the establishment of a national park for koalas:
Deputy chair of the committee Mark Pearson of the Animal Justice Party put the implications of inaction in stark terms.
“If urgent action isn’t taken now, NSW is taking a chainsaw to the last koala tree in the bush,” Pearson said in a statement.
“This isn’t speculation,” he said. “This is fact, the experts have told us the decline in koala numbers in NSW is a result of habitat destruction due to logging, agriculture, and coastal development.”
The new publication was welcomed by the World Wide Fund for Nature-Australia, which said it should spur government action.
“The bushfires burned a quarter of koala habitat, killing more than an estimated 6,300 koalas,” said Stuart Blanch, senior manager with WWF-Australia’s Land Clearing and Restoration project.
“Deforestation is soaring, killing koala homes and food,” he added.
Blanch said NSW has taken some good steps, like better koala habitat mapping. “But,” he stressed, “koalas are fast heading towards extinction across vast areas of the state and relying on National Parks alone as a conservation intervention simply will not be enough.”
He called on Premier Gladys Berejiklian to take steps including “a transition out of logging koala forests and into plantation.”
Efforts need to happen at the federal level too, Blach said, as he called the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC) inadequate to protect koalas from extinction.
The upcoming report based on the law’s 10-year statutory review—and its potential “revisioning” and impacts on koalas—was noted by Australia-based legal center Environmental Defenders Office (EDO).
Rachel Walmsley, the Sydney-based director of Law Reform and Policy for EDO, warned that the law could become victim to the federal government’s “deregulation agenda” that “pre-dates both the horrific bushfire season and the Covid-19 pandemic. Part of this agenda is delegating environmental responsibility to the states. Yes, the states with the laws that cannot even protect koalas,” she said.
“Rebuilding and restoring ecosystems burnt by bushfires and sustainably managing landscapes scarred by climate change, extreme weather, and drought will require laws to deliver a long-term vision for human and environmental health and resilience,” said Walmsley, as she warned against “[s]hort-term responses to the Covid-19 pandemic that focus solely on immediate economic stimulus measures—by reducing environmental protections or public involvement through fast-tracking infrastructure projects.”
She suggested the fate of the iconic animals in the wild is at stake, asking, “Are Australians really content for koalas to become relics in zoos?”
July 1, 2020 By Common Dreams
“If urgent action isn’t taken now, NSW is taking a chainsaw to the last koala tree in the bush.”
Koalas in the Australian state of New South Wales will be extinct before 2050 “without urgent government intervention,” a new report warns.
The report, released Tuesday, is the result of a year-long parliamentary inquiry examining the state of the animal and their habitat. The multi-party committee tasked with the effort was led by Greens Member of the Legislative Council Cate Faehrmann.
Among the key findings was that “following the 2019-2020 bushfires and the general trend of population decline, the current estimated number of 36,000 koalas in New South Wales is outdated and unreliable.” At least 5,000 koalas died in the fires.
And, as a result of the scale of koala population losses due to those fires, and “without urgent government intervention to protect habitat and address all other threats, the koala will become extinct in New South Wales before 2050,” the inquiry found.
The most serious threat to the koalas is “the fragmentation and loss of habitat.” Some parts of koala habitat on public land in NSW witnessed “a devastating loss of up to 81 percent” because of the fires.
The climate crisis is also dealing a blow to the koala population “by affecting the quality of their food and habitat.” That crisis is also “compounding the severity and impact of other threats, such as drought and bushfires, on koala populations,” the report noted.
oalas are on track to be extinct in NSW by 2050 unless the NSW Government takes urgent action.@Matt_KeanMP and @GladysB we call on you to follow expert advice and urgently implement the inquiry report’s 42 recommendations. We need to protect #koala habitat now! pic.twitter.com/C5SD1S2roE— Nature NSW (@naturensw) July 1, 2020
The report also laid out 42 recommendations, starting off with a call for state authorities to accurately determine koala population numbers. Rounding out the top three are for the NSW government to “urgently prioritize the protection of koala habitat and corridors in the planning and implementation stages of urban growth areas” and to “fund and support local councils to conserve koala habitat, including by identifying pockets of urban bushland to include in the state’s protected area network.”
“The only way our children’s grandchildren will see a koala in the wild in NSW will be if the government acts upon the committee’s recommendations,” Faehrmann wrote in the foreword to the report.
7 News Australia reported on the inquiry’s recommendations, including the establishment of a national park for koalas:
According to BBC News, “The state government welcomed the report but did not immediately confirm which recommendations it would adopt.”A NSW parliamentary report into the state’s koala population has warned they could be extinct by 2050. Among its recommendations is a ‘koala national park’ that would limit expansion of Sydney’s booming southwest. https://t.co/yC5PX0u0E0 @sarina_andaloro #7NEWS pic.twitter.com/UrnPMrcO3I— 7NEWS Australia (@7NewsAustralia) June 30, 2020
Deputy chair of the committee Mark Pearson of the Animal Justice Party put the implications of inaction in stark terms.
“If urgent action isn’t taken now, NSW is taking a chainsaw to the last koala tree in the bush,” Pearson said in a statement.
“This isn’t speculation,” he said. “This is fact, the experts have told us the decline in koala numbers in NSW is a result of habitat destruction due to logging, agriculture, and coastal development.”
The new publication was welcomed by the World Wide Fund for Nature-Australia, which said it should spur government action.
“The bushfires burned a quarter of koala habitat, killing more than an estimated 6,300 koalas,” said Stuart Blanch, senior manager with WWF-Australia’s Land Clearing and Restoration project.
“Deforestation is soaring, killing koala homes and food,” he added.
Blanch said NSW has taken some good steps, like better koala habitat mapping. “But,” he stressed, “koalas are fast heading towards extinction across vast areas of the state and relying on National Parks alone as a conservation intervention simply will not be enough.”
He called on Premier Gladys Berejiklian to take steps including “a transition out of logging koala forests and into plantation.”
Efforts need to happen at the federal level too, Blach said, as he called the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC) inadequate to protect koalas from extinction.
The upcoming report based on the law’s 10-year statutory review—and its potential “revisioning” and impacts on koalas—was noted by Australia-based legal center Environmental Defenders Office (EDO).
Rachel Walmsley, the Sydney-based director of Law Reform and Policy for EDO, warned that the law could become victim to the federal government’s “deregulation agenda” that “pre-dates both the horrific bushfire season and the Covid-19 pandemic. Part of this agenda is delegating environmental responsibility to the states. Yes, the states with the laws that cannot even protect koalas,” she said.
“Rebuilding and restoring ecosystems burnt by bushfires and sustainably managing landscapes scarred by climate change, extreme weather, and drought will require laws to deliver a long-term vision for human and environmental health and resilience,” said Walmsley, as she warned against “[s]hort-term responses to the Covid-19 pandemic that focus solely on immediate economic stimulus measures—by reducing environmental protections or public involvement through fast-tracking infrastructure projects.”
She suggested the fate of the iconic animals in the wild is at stake, asking, “Are Australians really content for koalas to become relics in zoos?”
Desperate to distract from the coronavirus catastrophe, Trump and his media allies are going full-on rabid racism
July 1, 2020 By Amanda Marcotte, Salon- Commentary
Racism is all he’s got.
Everything else Donald Trump was going to run on this summer and fall has evaporated. The “booming” economy? (Which he inherited from Barack Obama in the first place.) The U.S. has the worst unemployment rate since the Great Depression and the situation is about to get exponentially worse as unemployment benefits expire. And no, “reopening” is not a solution, since the data makes clear that consumers have little interest in shopping or eating out during a pandemic.
And then there was Trump’s plan to hold big rallies to make himself look like he’s got momentum, while Joe Biden campaigns in responsible ways that don’t spread the coronavirus. Not only was that plan sociopathic, it’s also not working. Trump’s big comeback rally in Tulsa was a hilarious failure, with only a third of the arena filled. Now Trump has canceled a rally in Alabama, citing coronavirus fears. It’s just as likely that the campaign was scared of more empty seats — even some of his most ardent followers would rather root for him at home rather than risk getting sick.
Trump’s efforts to paint Biden as too old and out of it to do a job as difficult as being president? Well, in the face of reports that Trump did nothing to push back against Russia paying Afghan fighters to kill American soldiers, the only “defense” of Trump is that he’s either too lazy or too illiterate to pay attention to his intelligence briefings. For a 74-year-old man trying to argue he’s sharper than his slightly older opponent, having his press secretary argue that Trump does too know how to read is arguably not a great look.
As for the coronavirus itself, Trump is so hostile to any efforts to meaningfully fight the disease that people have started to wonder, only half-facetiously, whether he’s campaigning on a pro-coronavirus agenda.
So now Trump, aided as usual by the massive propaganda apparatus at Fox News, is pushing all his chips on the bet that just enough voters in swing states will disregard all these failures, so long as he keeps escalating the racism. There’s no real evidence this will work — his efforts to whip up racist hysterics about a “caravan” that was “invading” the U.S. in the fall of 2018 (it was really a small group of Central American refugees fleeing from violence) did nothing to prevent the Democrats’ big midterm win — but Trump is a dull-witted man with few real ideas. Racism is all he has.
And if racism isn’t working yet, Trump clearly thinks that piling on more and more of it will finally turn the tide.
On Tuesday night alone, Trump — who clearly isn’t sleeping much, based on his Twitter patterns — went buck-wild with the overt racism.
Around 9 p.m., Trump tweeted that at “the request of many great Americans who live in the Suburbs” he is “studying” (ha) “the AFFH housing regulation that is having a devastating impact on these once thriving Suburban areas.”
The reference may be a little obscure, but the intent definitely isn’t. Trump is referring to an Obama-era rule to enforce the 1968 Fair Housing Act, aimed at ending racial discrimination in housing. Or, to put it more bluntly, Trump is suggesting that it ruins suburban life if Black people move in, and he’s eager to do whatever he can to stop it. (Trump himself was sued by the Department of Justice for refusing to rent to Black tenants in the 1970s.)
Trump’s administration has already put a pause on enforcing some Obama-era rules to desegregate housing, even though evidence shows that there continue to be dramatic levels of discrimination against Black people seeking homes to rent or buy. The administration has made some noises to make these moves somehow sound not-racist, but Trump’s unsubtle tweeting suggests he sees the racism as a selling point. His theory, one supposes, is that white voters will thrill to hear he’s working to keep Black people from moving into their neighborhoods.
Later that night, Trump threatened to defund the entire U.S. military if the Senate tries to rename military bases that currently sport the names of Confederate military leaders. Again, not exactly subtle. These bases should never have been named for traitors who took up arms against the U.S. government and killed hundreds of thousands of patriotic American soldiers in the name of white supremacy. With this threat, Trump is pretty clearly saying that racism matters more than patriotism, which is turning out to be a pattern with him.
There are reports that some members of Trump’s staff think that going full-on white supremacist is a bad look — anonymous White House staffers recently told reporters that they spent three hours trying to get Trump to take down a tweet featuring that infamous video clip of golf-cart-riding supporters shouting “white power” — but the biggest hosts at Fox News think this ramped-up racism is a winning strategy for their orange reality-TV president.
Basically, the message coming from Fox News in recent days has been to threaten the network’s older white viewers with the prospect that a failure to vote Republican might mean, heaven forbid, that the forces of anti-racism will triumph. Apparently, Fox News hosts believe nothing could be more terrifying to their viewers than the possibility that they might have to live near Black people, or treat them with respect.
“If Biden wins,” Laura Ingraham announced on Fox News Tuesday night, “you’ll be sending money to Washington so Pelosi and the squad can commission statues of their new heroes of the left. Like, I don’t know, Colin Kaepernick and Stacey Abrams.”
The context of this snark, of course, is the ongoing Trump-fueled controversy over Black Lives Matter activists demanding the removal of statues celebrating historical figures, mostly Confederate military leaders, who are viewed as white supremacists, as well as the fight over renaming military bases, maybe to honor people who didn’t commit treason. In Ingraham’s world, statues honoring Black people who have fought against racism, often at great personal cost, would be preposterous, but statues honoring white supremacists are “what makes this country so great.”
Similarly, Fox News host Tucker Carlson dug into an apocalyptic racist fantasy Tuesday night, proclaiming that “Americans who want to live as they did just 15 years ago, quietly, productively, without being harassed and harangued by self-righteous lunatics” are going to “need a protector,” and that “protector must be the Republican Party.”
There are, of course, no reports of “self-righteous lunatics” going into the homes of quiet, productive people to harangue them. That’s just a fantasy Carlson is spinning to justify conservatives’ pangs of guilt when they turn on the news and see people who are angry about racism or sexism or other social ills that sofa-bound right-wingers would rather not interrogate. The option to turn the TV off and live in ignorance is always there, but Carlson wants his audience to feel aggrieved and play the victims.
The scary thing here is that of course there’s a well-known Fox News-to-Trump feedback loop. The president gets himself all worked up by imbibing Fox News’ racial grievance politics, and then turns around and pours his racist vitriol out on Twitter and into speeches. Then the Fox News crew takes their cues from Trump and turns up the racism even more.
Given the Trump campaign’s desperate need to distract from the economic collapse, the pandemic and the fact that Trump’s Russian buddies reportedly paid bounties for the lives of American soldiers, this feedback loop is only going to get worse. Their bag of tricks is running out, and racism is all Trump and his media allies have left. It’s four months and two days until the election and in that time, we can expect the white supremacist demagoguery to escalate day by day. Considering what a powder keg this country already is, it’s a downright terrifying situation.
New Paper Shows Why Face Masks Are Essential In Curbing Covid-19
Alice G. Walton Senior Contributor
Face masks GETTY
As Covid-19 cases mount in several states, and the U.S. as a whole still is still posting frighteningly high numbers, some local leaders are finally requiring face masks in public. But there has been no federal level directive on the matter. Masks have been strangely politicized, while numbers of cases and hospitalizations are rising in many areas. A new paper out in the journal the Physics of Fluids helps visualize exactly why masks are important in reducing the spread, and which types of mask appear to be most effective.
"While there are a few prior studies on the effectiveness of medical-grade equipment, we don't have a lot of information about the cloth-based coverings that are most accessible to us at present," said study author Siddhartha Verma in a statement. "Our hope is that the visualizations presented in the paper help convey the rationale behind the recommendations for social distancing and using face masks."
The team used a manikin (a medical mannequin) to model coughing and sneezing. The spray was replicated using a pump of water and glycerin solution (“respiratory jets”) paired with fog machine particles (“tracer particles”) to help visualize the activity. Lasers captured the behavior of the particles as they escaped the masks through gaps or the fabric itself. The team repeated the experiment with a variety of mask types—a bandana, a mask made from a folded handkerchief using instructions from the U.S. Surgeon General, a stitched mask made of two layers of quilting cotton, and a drugstore brand cone face mask.
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The stitched mask and store-bought masks were the most effective (see images below). The stitched mask was able “to arrest the forward motion of the tracer droplets almost completely,” the authors write. There was little leakage through the material itself—most of it came from gaps above the nose. The leakage traveled 2.5 inches on average.
Homemade mask, quilting fabric VERMA ET AL 2020
The cone mask was also quite good, though the team notes a little more leakage than the homemade mask. Jets traveled about 6 inches.
Store-bought mask. VERMA ET AL 2020
The handkerchief mask was mediocre, with an average jet distance of 1.25 feet. The team writes that “while the forward motion of the jet is impeded significantly, there is notable leakage of tracer droplets through the mask material.” Some droplets also escaped through the top of the mask. The bandana (not pictured) performed considerably worse, with average jet distance of 3.5 feet.
Handkerchief mask, constructed per US Surgeon General's instructions VERMA ET AL 2020
The team also looked at the spray of a cough and sneeze when the manikin was wearing nothing over its face: This, of course, spewed droplets far and wide, with particles reaching 12 feet—twice the distance that social distancing guidelines say to maintain. In fact, another study out today in the same journal analyzed the aerodynamics of droplets as they move through the air or evaporate and fall—they traveled up to 13 feet. The findings are also in line with earlier work, suggesting that droplets can linger in the air for many minutes.
It is, of course, important to point out that the new study was just a small observational study, with manikins rather than people—and the coughs and sneezes generated by the pump were simply a model of the human versions.
Still, the new research, along with previous studies, suggest that wearing a mask in public is a relatively simple and cheap way to reduce the spread of the virus. It’s not a stand-alone and it’s not foolproof, but it does seem to help. Masks, along with the other known strategies—social distancing and hand-washing—all work in concert to reduce the risk. Financial models also suggest that a mask mandate could save the economy considerably, as it might obviate the need for further lockdowns.
It’s also worth mentioning that masks are worn as much or more for other people than for yourself—that’s why everyone needs to wear one to be effective. “We have witnessed some aversion to using face masks, and hopefully the study will help convey that using masks is primarily an effort to protect the most vulnerable members of our society (i.e., the elderly, or people with underlying health conditions),” said Verma in an email. “This is crucial since current estimates suggest that one in three infected people (35%) do not show overt symptoms, and could potentially infect such vulnerable individuals inadvertently.”
These realities are all the more important as people return to work and school in the coming months, and second waves are possible, or probable. “Promoting widespread awareness of effective preventative measures is crucial,” the team concludes, “given the high likelihood of a resurgence of COVID-19 infections in the fall and winter.”
Glow-in-the-dark sneezes show best homemade face mask is quilted cotton
The stitched quilted cotton mask proved most effective, allowing droplets from the nose and mouth to travel just 2.5 inches.
With a folded handkerchief mask over the nose and mouth, droplets from coughs and sneezes traveled 1 foot, 3 inches. Photo courtesy of Florida Atlantic University College of Engineering and Computer Science
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They found that without a mask, droplets traveled more than 8 feet -- beyond the 6 feet recommended for "social distancing." With a bandana, droplets traveled 3 feet, 7 inches. With a folded cotton handkerchief, the droplets traveled 1 foot, 3 inches. The stitched quilted cotton mask proved most effective, allowing droplets from the nose and mouth to travel just 2.5 inches.
Scientists also tested a cone mask, widely available at local pharmacies. The commercial mask allowed droplets from simulated coughs and sneezes to travel 8 inches.
For the study, researchers sprayed a solution of distilled water and glycerin through the mouth of a mannequin to create glow-in-the-dark droplet clouds resembling those produced by coughs and sneezes.
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Researchers projected the glow-in-the-dark coughs and sneezes through several types of homemade masks, using cameras to measure how far the droplets traveled.
"We visualized the droplets in a sheet of laser light," said co-author Manhar Dhanak, department chair, professor and director of SeaTech at Florida Atlantic. "The droplets scatter the light and hence become visible."Researchers determined that creating a tight seal and layering material were the most important factors in creating an effective barrier.
"The effectiveness of a mask does not necessarily depend on the thread-count of the fabric," Verma said.
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While masks are effective in reducing the risk of transmission of viral infections, Dhanak said that "given the possibility of leakage, it is important to use a combination of social distancing, mask use, hand-washing and other recommendations from healthcare professionals in order to minimize the chances of transmission."
In future studies, Verma and Dhanak plan to more closely examine leakage around the sides of different kinds of masks and how to curtail it."We are also looking into the impact of environmental conditions in a room on the spread of the droplets and wider applications of our techniques in design of barriers, shielding and air-conditioning systems in the workplace and open-plan offices," Verma said.
upi.com/7018246
Alice G. Walton Senior Contributor
FORBES NWO DEEP STATE JUST KIDDING
OR AM I
FORBES THE MAGAZINE IS MORE LIBERAL
THAN ITS OWNER OR FOX BUSINESS NEWS
Face masks GETTY
As Covid-19 cases mount in several states, and the U.S. as a whole still is still posting frighteningly high numbers, some local leaders are finally requiring face masks in public. But there has been no federal level directive on the matter. Masks have been strangely politicized, while numbers of cases and hospitalizations are rising in many areas. A new paper out in the journal the Physics of Fluids helps visualize exactly why masks are important in reducing the spread, and which types of mask appear to be most effective.
"While there are a few prior studies on the effectiveness of medical-grade equipment, we don't have a lot of information about the cloth-based coverings that are most accessible to us at present," said study author Siddhartha Verma in a statement. "Our hope is that the visualizations presented in the paper help convey the rationale behind the recommendations for social distancing and using face masks."
The team used a manikin (a medical mannequin) to model coughing and sneezing. The spray was replicated using a pump of water and glycerin solution (“respiratory jets”) paired with fog machine particles (“tracer particles”) to help visualize the activity. Lasers captured the behavior of the particles as they escaped the masks through gaps or the fabric itself. The team repeated the experiment with a variety of mask types—a bandana, a mask made from a folded handkerchief using instructions from the U.S. Surgeon General, a stitched mask made of two layers of quilting cotton, and a drugstore brand cone face mask.
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The stitched mask and store-bought masks were the most effective (see images below). The stitched mask was able “to arrest the forward motion of the tracer droplets almost completely,” the authors write. There was little leakage through the material itself—most of it came from gaps above the nose. The leakage traveled 2.5 inches on average.
Homemade mask, quilting fabric VERMA ET AL 2020
The cone mask was also quite good, though the team notes a little more leakage than the homemade mask. Jets traveled about 6 inches.
Store-bought mask. VERMA ET AL 2020
The handkerchief mask was mediocre, with an average jet distance of 1.25 feet. The team writes that “while the forward motion of the jet is impeded significantly, there is notable leakage of tracer droplets through the mask material.” Some droplets also escaped through the top of the mask. The bandana (not pictured) performed considerably worse, with average jet distance of 3.5 feet.
Handkerchief mask, constructed per US Surgeon General's instructions VERMA ET AL 2020
The team also looked at the spray of a cough and sneeze when the manikin was wearing nothing over its face: This, of course, spewed droplets far and wide, with particles reaching 12 feet—twice the distance that social distancing guidelines say to maintain. In fact, another study out today in the same journal analyzed the aerodynamics of droplets as they move through the air or evaporate and fall—they traveled up to 13 feet. The findings are also in line with earlier work, suggesting that droplets can linger in the air for many minutes.
It is, of course, important to point out that the new study was just a small observational study, with manikins rather than people—and the coughs and sneezes generated by the pump were simply a model of the human versions.
Still, the new research, along with previous studies, suggest that wearing a mask in public is a relatively simple and cheap way to reduce the spread of the virus. It’s not a stand-alone and it’s not foolproof, but it does seem to help. Masks, along with the other known strategies—social distancing and hand-washing—all work in concert to reduce the risk. Financial models also suggest that a mask mandate could save the economy considerably, as it might obviate the need for further lockdowns.
It’s also worth mentioning that masks are worn as much or more for other people than for yourself—that’s why everyone needs to wear one to be effective. “We have witnessed some aversion to using face masks, and hopefully the study will help convey that using masks is primarily an effort to protect the most vulnerable members of our society (i.e., the elderly, or people with underlying health conditions),” said Verma in an email. “This is crucial since current estimates suggest that one in three infected people (35%) do not show overt symptoms, and could potentially infect such vulnerable individuals inadvertently.”
These realities are all the more important as people return to work and school in the coming months, and second waves are possible, or probable. “Promoting widespread awareness of effective preventative measures is crucial,” the team concludes, “given the high likelihood of a resurgence of COVID-19 infections in the fall and winter.”
Glow-in-the-dark sneezes show best homemade face mask is quilted cotton
The stitched quilted cotton mask proved most effective, allowing droplets from the nose and mouth to travel just 2.5 inches.
With a folded handkerchief mask over the nose and mouth, droplets from coughs and sneezes traveled 1 foot, 3 inches. Photo courtesy of Florida Atlantic University College of Engineering and Computer Science
June 30 (UPI) -- To figure what types of homemade mask best prevent the spread of COVID-19, scientists at Florida Atlantic University used glycerine and laser light to illuminate the movement of droplets from coughs and sneezes.
Researchers report the distance droplets move can be cut by more than half by using a homemade mask -- from more than 8 feet, to less than 2 feet.
For the new study, published Tuesday in the journal Physics of Fluids, researchers focused on cloth-based coverings, as most other research has focused on medical-grade masks.
"Such masks have been recommended for public use by various agencies, but there are no clear guidelines on the best material or construction technique that should be used," Siddhartha Verma, lead author and an assistant professor at Florida Atlantic, told UPI in an email.
Researchers report the distance droplets move can be cut by more than half by using a homemade mask -- from more than 8 feet, to less than 2 feet.
For the new study, published Tuesday in the journal Physics of Fluids, researchers focused on cloth-based coverings, as most other research has focused on medical-grade masks.
"Such masks have been recommended for public use by various agencies, but there are no clear guidelines on the best material or construction technique that should be used," Siddhartha Verma, lead author and an assistant professor at Florida Atlantic, told UPI in an email.
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They found that without a mask, droplets traveled more than 8 feet -- beyond the 6 feet recommended for "social distancing." With a bandana, droplets traveled 3 feet, 7 inches. With a folded cotton handkerchief, the droplets traveled 1 foot, 3 inches. The stitched quilted cotton mask proved most effective, allowing droplets from the nose and mouth to travel just 2.5 inches.
Scientists also tested a cone mask, widely available at local pharmacies. The commercial mask allowed droplets from simulated coughs and sneezes to travel 8 inches.
For the study, researchers sprayed a solution of distilled water and glycerin through the mouth of a mannequin to create glow-in-the-dark droplet clouds resembling those produced by coughs and sneezes.
RELATED California to require face coverings in public as coronavirus cases spike
Researchers projected the glow-in-the-dark coughs and sneezes through several types of homemade masks, using cameras to measure how far the droplets traveled.
"We visualized the droplets in a sheet of laser light," said co-author Manhar Dhanak, department chair, professor and director of SeaTech at Florida Atlantic. "The droplets scatter the light and hence become visible."Researchers determined that creating a tight seal and layering material were the most important factors in creating an effective barrier.
"The effectiveness of a mask does not necessarily depend on the thread-count of the fabric," Verma said.
RELATED Flushed toilets produce clouds of virus-containing particles, simulations show
While masks are effective in reducing the risk of transmission of viral infections, Dhanak said that "given the possibility of leakage, it is important to use a combination of social distancing, mask use, hand-washing and other recommendations from healthcare professionals in order to minimize the chances of transmission."
In future studies, Verma and Dhanak plan to more closely examine leakage around the sides of different kinds of masks and how to curtail it."We are also looking into the impact of environmental conditions in a room on the spread of the droplets and wider applications of our techniques in design of barriers, shielding and air-conditioning systems in the workplace and open-plan offices," Verma said.
upi.com/7018246
Oglala Sioux President Says Trump “Doesn’t Have Permission” to Visit Mt. Rushmore
JUL 01, 2020
In South Dakota, the president of the Oglala Sioux Tribe has ordered President Trump to cancel a planned visit to Mount Rushmore on July 3 for his Independence Day celebration. Julian Bear Runner told The Guardian, “The lands on which that mountain is carved and the lands he’s about to visit belong to the Great Sioux nation under a treaty signed in 1851 and the Fort Laramie Treaty of 1868 and I have to tell him he doesn’t have permission from its original sovereign owners to enter the territory at this time.”
Donald Trump should stay away from Mount Rushmore, Sioux leader says
The president’s planned visit to the monument on ‘stolen’ Native land risks spreading coronavirus, tribal president warns
Edward Helmore
Wed 1 Jul 2020 09.00 BSTLast modified on Wed 1 Jul 2020 20.25 BST
JUL 01, 2020
In South Dakota, the president of the Oglala Sioux Tribe has ordered President Trump to cancel a planned visit to Mount Rushmore on July 3 for his Independence Day celebration. Julian Bear Runner told The Guardian, “The lands on which that mountain is carved and the lands he’s about to visit belong to the Great Sioux nation under a treaty signed in 1851 and the Fort Laramie Treaty of 1868 and I have to tell him he doesn’t have permission from its original sovereign owners to enter the territory at this time.”
Donald Trump should stay away from Mount Rushmore, Sioux leader says
The president’s planned visit to the monument on ‘stolen’ Native land risks spreading coronavirus, tribal president warns
Edward Helmore
Wed 1 Jul 2020 09.00 BSTLast modified on Wed 1 Jul 2020 20.25 BST
Mount Rushmore in South Dakota. ‘Trump coming here is a safety concern,’ said the Oglala Sioux president, Julian Bear Runner. Photograph: Kerem Yucel/AFP via Getty Images
Donald Trump should not carry out his planned 3 July visit to Mount Rushmore in South Dakota because it represents a safety risk in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic and is an insult to Native Americans on whose stolen land it was built, the president of the Oglala Sioux tribal council has said.
Several Native American groups are planning protests for Trump’s controversial trip to the 79-year-old stone monument carved into the Black Hills that is set to include the first fireworks display at the site since 2009 and an air force flypast.
“Trump coming here is a safety concern not just for my people inside and outside the reservation, but for people in the Great Plains. We have such limited resources in Black Hills, and we’re already seeing infections rising,” the Oglala Sioux president, Julian Bear Runner, in an interview with the Guardian.
South Dakota governor threatens to sue over Sioux's coronavirus roadblocks
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“It’s going to cause an uproar if he comes here. People are going to want to exercise their first amendment rights to protest and we do not want to see anyone get hurt or the lands be destroyed,” Bear Runner said.
Trump’s visit to the huge site that commemorates four US presidents was a violation of the historic treaties that the US government had signed with Native Americans that were meant to govern the sacred Black Hills, the Oglala tribal president said, adding that Trump should have asked permission for the trip from the seven Sioux tribal governments.
“The lands on which that mountain is carved and the lands he’s about to visit belong to the Great Sioux nation under a treaty signed in 1851 and the Fort Laramie Treaty of 1868 and I have to tell him he doesn’t have permission from its original sovereign owners to enter the territory at this time,” Bear Runner said.
The 1868 treaty acknowledged Sioux sovereignty over the Black Hills in perpetuity but after gold was discovered in the area the federal government forced the Sioux to relinquish this part of their reservation. In 1980, the US supreme court ruled that tribal lands covered by the treaty had been taken from the Sioux illegally.
Julian Bear Runner, president of the Oglala Sioux tribal council.
Donald Trump should not carry out his planned 3 July visit to Mount Rushmore in South Dakota because it represents a safety risk in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic and is an insult to Native Americans on whose stolen land it was built, the president of the Oglala Sioux tribal council has said.
Several Native American groups are planning protests for Trump’s controversial trip to the 79-year-old stone monument carved into the Black Hills that is set to include the first fireworks display at the site since 2009 and an air force flypast.
“Trump coming here is a safety concern not just for my people inside and outside the reservation, but for people in the Great Plains. We have such limited resources in Black Hills, and we’re already seeing infections rising,” the Oglala Sioux president, Julian Bear Runner, in an interview with the Guardian.
South Dakota governor threatens to sue over Sioux's coronavirus roadblocks
Read more
“It’s going to cause an uproar if he comes here. People are going to want to exercise their first amendment rights to protest and we do not want to see anyone get hurt or the lands be destroyed,” Bear Runner said.
Trump’s visit to the huge site that commemorates four US presidents was a violation of the historic treaties that the US government had signed with Native Americans that were meant to govern the sacred Black Hills, the Oglala tribal president said, adding that Trump should have asked permission for the trip from the seven Sioux tribal governments.
“The lands on which that mountain is carved and the lands he’s about to visit belong to the Great Sioux nation under a treaty signed in 1851 and the Fort Laramie Treaty of 1868 and I have to tell him he doesn’t have permission from its original sovereign owners to enter the territory at this time,” Bear Runner said.
The 1868 treaty acknowledged Sioux sovereignty over the Black Hills in perpetuity but after gold was discovered in the area the federal government forced the Sioux to relinquish this part of their reservation. In 1980, the US supreme court ruled that tribal lands covered by the treaty had been taken from the Sioux illegally.
Julian Bear Runner, president of the Oglala Sioux tribal council.
Photograph: Ryan Hermans/AP
Bear Runner added that Trump’s visit could only be approved if the US president sat down with the leaders of the seven tribal councils in a government-to-government consultation.
“As leader of the United States he has obligation to … honor the treaties that are the supreme law of the land,” the 34-year-old president said.
Trump’s visit comes after months of escalating tensions between Native Americans and South Dakota state and federal authorities over jurisdictional power to isolate reservation lands from the spread of Covid-19 that has devastated many Native communities elsewhere.
In early May, leaders of the Oglala and Cheyenne River Sioux refused a request from South Dakota’s Republican governor, Kristi Noem, to remove checkpoints leading to their reservation that they say have helped protect the tribe from all but a handful of coronavirus cases.
Last week, the Cheyenne Sioux accused Trump administration officials of a sustained and unlawful campaign of threats against the tribe aimed at taking control of tribal land policing after the Cheyenne and Oglala Sioux rejected Noem’s demands.
Trump’s planned visit also comes amid a reckoning over racism and a reconsideration of provocative representations of colonial power across the US.
In New Mexico, home to more than a dozen Pueblo Indian reservations as well as part of the Navajo Nation, a movement is under way to the remove monuments to the Spanish conquistadors Juan de Oñate and Diego de Vargas.
Native American activists have argued for years that the memorial to US presidents carved into Mount Rushmore is equally offensive as monuments to Confederate leaders or Spanish conquistadors.
The monument was, they argue, carved into a mountain with its own spiritual meaning, sits on stolen land, was designed and executed by a sculptor, Gutzon Borglum, who had ties to white supremacists, and represents presidents each of whom had dirty hands in terms of slavery and racial oppression.
“The rocks already had spiritual meaning before westerners came to squat our territory,” Bear Runner said. “The land is rightfully ours, and we didn’t give the Black Hills over. It would be wrong for me as a tribal leader to remain diplomatic. We consider the carvings a symbol of trying to wipe us away and to say they had conquered us.”
For years there have been calls by activists to remove the four presidents – George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt – from the mountain. Each either owned slaves, made racist remarks or initiated actions that contributed harm to Native peoples.
Of the four, Lincoln gives the greatest offense to Native Americans for ordering the largest mass execution in American history when 38 Sioux were hanged in Minnesota during the Dakota war of 1862.
“They don’t tell the true story and it’s wrong. We hear only the highlighted story of the good things these men have done for this country but they don’t tell that this land belongs to Native Americans, that the Black Hills belong to the Sioux nations, or the hanging of these Dakota men,” Bear Runner said.
The social and cultural desecration the monument represents, has led many Native activists to call for the removal of the monument. But Governor Noem tweeted last week: “Not on my watch.”
Bear Runner added that Trump’s visit could only be approved if the US president sat down with the leaders of the seven tribal councils in a government-to-government consultation.
“As leader of the United States he has obligation to … honor the treaties that are the supreme law of the land,” the 34-year-old president said.
Trump’s visit comes after months of escalating tensions between Native Americans and South Dakota state and federal authorities over jurisdictional power to isolate reservation lands from the spread of Covid-19 that has devastated many Native communities elsewhere.
In early May, leaders of the Oglala and Cheyenne River Sioux refused a request from South Dakota’s Republican governor, Kristi Noem, to remove checkpoints leading to their reservation that they say have helped protect the tribe from all but a handful of coronavirus cases.
Last week, the Cheyenne Sioux accused Trump administration officials of a sustained and unlawful campaign of threats against the tribe aimed at taking control of tribal land policing after the Cheyenne and Oglala Sioux rejected Noem’s demands.
Trump’s planned visit also comes amid a reckoning over racism and a reconsideration of provocative representations of colonial power across the US.
In New Mexico, home to more than a dozen Pueblo Indian reservations as well as part of the Navajo Nation, a movement is under way to the remove monuments to the Spanish conquistadors Juan de Oñate and Diego de Vargas.
Native American activists have argued for years that the memorial to US presidents carved into Mount Rushmore is equally offensive as monuments to Confederate leaders or Spanish conquistadors.
The monument was, they argue, carved into a mountain with its own spiritual meaning, sits on stolen land, was designed and executed by a sculptor, Gutzon Borglum, who had ties to white supremacists, and represents presidents each of whom had dirty hands in terms of slavery and racial oppression.
“The rocks already had spiritual meaning before westerners came to squat our territory,” Bear Runner said. “The land is rightfully ours, and we didn’t give the Black Hills over. It would be wrong for me as a tribal leader to remain diplomatic. We consider the carvings a symbol of trying to wipe us away and to say they had conquered us.”
For years there have been calls by activists to remove the four presidents – George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln and Theodore Roosevelt – from the mountain. Each either owned slaves, made racist remarks or initiated actions that contributed harm to Native peoples.
Of the four, Lincoln gives the greatest offense to Native Americans for ordering the largest mass execution in American history when 38 Sioux were hanged in Minnesota during the Dakota war of 1862.
“They don’t tell the true story and it’s wrong. We hear only the highlighted story of the good things these men have done for this country but they don’t tell that this land belongs to Native Americans, that the Black Hills belong to the Sioux nations, or the hanging of these Dakota men,” Bear Runner said.
The social and cultural desecration the monument represents, has led many Native activists to call for the removal of the monument. But Governor Noem tweeted last week: “Not on my watch.”
Dozens of Healthcare Workers Died of COVID-19 After OSHA Dismissed Pleas for PPE
HEY HEY USA
HOW MANY HEROES
HAVE YOU KILLED TODAY
JUL 01, 2020
A new report finds U.S. health workers filed more than 4,100 complaints about a lack of personal protective equipment during the pandemic — even as hundreds died of COVID-19. The report from Kaiser Health News and The Guardian found officials with the Occupational Safety and Health Administration rapidly closed many complaints without issuing citations. Researchers found just a single instance when OSHA issued a fine: a $3,900 penalty for a Georgia nursing home that failed to report worker hospitalizations on time.
A new report finds U.S. health workers filed more than 4,100 complaints about a lack of personal protective equipment during the pandemic — even as hundreds died of COVID-19. The report from Kaiser Health News and The Guardian found officials with the Occupational Safety and Health Administration rapidly closed many complaints without issuing citations. Researchers found just a single instance when OSHA issued a fine: a $3,900 penalty for a Georgia nursing home that failed to report worker hospitalizations on time.
27,000 Coronavirus-Linked Deaths Have Gone Uncounted in U.S., Study Estimates
Ed Cara
Today 11:16AM
•Filed to:CORONAVIRUS
Health care workers in Brooklyn transporting a deceased patient who died of covid-19 to a refrigeration truck for temporary storage in early April.Photo: Angela Weiss (Getty Images)
It will take a long time to truly know the toll of deaths and injuries caused by the ongoing covid-19 pandemic. But a new study out Wednesday provides an early estimate of the excess deaths linked to the viral disease in the United States. It suggests that the country’s official count may have missed up to 27,000 deaths as of late May.
Counting excess deaths—defined as deaths above the baseline seen in previous years during the same time period—from all causes is often considered a more accurate way to measure the fatal impact of a newly emerged and widespread disease, since the official toll can miss people who weren’t diagnosed before they died. Initially, doctors and scientists can have trouble identifying or confirming deaths caused by a new disease, either due to a lack of familiarity with its symptoms, no available tests to confirm a diagnosis, or simply because the disease wasn’t known to exist in that area at the time.
Scientists did quickly create a relatively accurate test for the coronavirus that causes covid-19 after its discovery in China late last year. But the U.S. federal government’s delayed and flawed response left states without testing readily available for months once the pandemic started to pick up steam in March. The lack of testing also hindered attempts to recognize and contain the earliest outbreaks in states like New York and Washington, which further enabled its spread. It’s now thought that the virus was circulating locally in the U.S. as early as January.
In this new study, published in JAMA Internal Medicine, researchers tried to calculate excess deaths across the country from March 1 to May 30.
Between those months, 95,235 deaths were officially attributed to covid-19 in most of the U.S. But the authors calculated, based on comparing deaths this year to other recent years, that there were likely 122,300 excess deaths during that time, about 28% higher than the official count of covid-19 deaths. That leaves about 27,000 deaths above the normal March-May baseline in the U.S., which suggests the virus has killed many more people than the official count says.
“The number of reported covid-19 deaths likely represents an undercount of the true burden caused by the virus,” lead author Daniel Weinburger, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Yale University, told Gizmodo via email. “There have been questions about whether the reported statistics overcount covid-19 deaths. Our analyses suggest the opposite.”
There are limitations to these findings, though. For one, there wasn’t available death data from the states of Connecticut and North Carolina at the time, so they weren’t included in either the count of covid-19 or excess deaths. As of early July 1, Connecticut and North Carolina have reported 4,322 and 1,343 covid-19 deaths, respectively.
Another caveat is that the authors made several adjustments and assumptions for their estimates, including trying to account for delays in states reporting deaths. Many states, especially early on in the pandemic, have had backlogs of tests, meaning that someone who was tested for covid-19 and died from it in March may have gone unconfirmed for months. States are still occasionally adding large numbers of new deaths that occurred earlier than reported. However, Weinburger said that their assumptions should make their model more accurate than other attempts to measure the number of excess deaths during the pandemic.
“Some news outlets have generated estimates of excess deaths by simply comparing the number of deaths in each week to the average number of deaths in that week in previous years,” he said. “This ignores trends over time (e.g. increases or decreases due to changing population sizes). It also does not adjust for reporting delays, so they are not able to provide estimates for more recent weeks.”
Perhaps the most important consideration is that not all of these excess deaths were necessarily caused by covid-19 directly. Some excess deaths may reflect deaths of people with chronic conditions that weren’t treated because of the strains on some hospitals or because they were fearful of getting care at the time due to the pandemic. But the team’s data and other research doesn’t support the theory voiced by many skeptics of the lockdowns that the actions created to slow the pandemic caused lots of preventable deaths, and certainly not more deaths than those caused by the pandemic itself during that time.
“There have certainly been increases in deaths due to heart attacks, strokes, Alzheimer’s, and some of these could be linked to avoiding emergency healthcare,” Weinburger said. “I think the increases related to lockdown measures are small compared to the increases caused directly by covid-19. A number of states that implemented lockdown measures but had small epidemics of covid-19 in March-May had little excess death.”
Untangling how deadly covid-19 has been and will be is something that will take a long time. But it’s likely that we’ve been getting better at it as time has gone on, since tests have become more available. So we might not see such a wide gap between excess and covid-19 deaths going forward, provided testing remains available. But there may still be differences between states, depending on their guidelines for declaring a death to be due to covid-19 (some but not all states now publicly share data on probable covid-19 deaths).
Even now, this study highlights just how much suffering has been caused by covid-19, and how much of its destruction early on we may have missed. Weinburger and his team, for their part, hope that their research and model will continue to provide a key tool in measuring the true toll of the pandemic.
As of July 1, the U.S. has reported around 127,000 coronavirus deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University’s tracker.
Ed Cara
Today 11:16AM
•Filed to:CORONAVIRUS
Health care workers in Brooklyn transporting a deceased patient who died of covid-19 to a refrigeration truck for temporary storage in early April.Photo: Angela Weiss (Getty Images)It will take a long time to truly know the toll of deaths and injuries caused by the ongoing covid-19 pandemic. But a new study out Wednesday provides an early estimate of the excess deaths linked to the viral disease in the United States. It suggests that the country’s official count may have missed up to 27,000 deaths as of late May.
Counting excess deaths—defined as deaths above the baseline seen in previous years during the same time period—from all causes is often considered a more accurate way to measure the fatal impact of a newly emerged and widespread disease, since the official toll can miss people who weren’t diagnosed before they died. Initially, doctors and scientists can have trouble identifying or confirming deaths caused by a new disease, either due to a lack of familiarity with its symptoms, no available tests to confirm a diagnosis, or simply because the disease wasn’t known to exist in that area at the time.
Scientists did quickly create a relatively accurate test for the coronavirus that causes covid-19 after its discovery in China late last year. But the U.S. federal government’s delayed and flawed response left states without testing readily available for months once the pandemic started to pick up steam in March. The lack of testing also hindered attempts to recognize and contain the earliest outbreaks in states like New York and Washington, which further enabled its spread. It’s now thought that the virus was circulating locally in the U.S. as early as January.
In this new study, published in JAMA Internal Medicine, researchers tried to calculate excess deaths across the country from March 1 to May 30.
Between those months, 95,235 deaths were officially attributed to covid-19 in most of the U.S. But the authors calculated, based on comparing deaths this year to other recent years, that there were likely 122,300 excess deaths during that time, about 28% higher than the official count of covid-19 deaths. That leaves about 27,000 deaths above the normal March-May baseline in the U.S., which suggests the virus has killed many more people than the official count says.
“The number of reported covid-19 deaths likely represents an undercount of the true burden caused by the virus,” lead author Daniel Weinburger, an infectious disease epidemiologist at Yale University, told Gizmodo via email. “There have been questions about whether the reported statistics overcount covid-19 deaths. Our analyses suggest the opposite.”
There are limitations to these findings, though. For one, there wasn’t available death data from the states of Connecticut and North Carolina at the time, so they weren’t included in either the count of covid-19 or excess deaths. As of early July 1, Connecticut and North Carolina have reported 4,322 and 1,343 covid-19 deaths, respectively.
Another caveat is that the authors made several adjustments and assumptions for their estimates, including trying to account for delays in states reporting deaths. Many states, especially early on in the pandemic, have had backlogs of tests, meaning that someone who was tested for covid-19 and died from it in March may have gone unconfirmed for months. States are still occasionally adding large numbers of new deaths that occurred earlier than reported. However, Weinburger said that their assumptions should make their model more accurate than other attempts to measure the number of excess deaths during the pandemic.
“Some news outlets have generated estimates of excess deaths by simply comparing the number of deaths in each week to the average number of deaths in that week in previous years,” he said. “This ignores trends over time (e.g. increases or decreases due to changing population sizes). It also does not adjust for reporting delays, so they are not able to provide estimates for more recent weeks.”
Perhaps the most important consideration is that not all of these excess deaths were necessarily caused by covid-19 directly. Some excess deaths may reflect deaths of people with chronic conditions that weren’t treated because of the strains on some hospitals or because they were fearful of getting care at the time due to the pandemic. But the team’s data and other research doesn’t support the theory voiced by many skeptics of the lockdowns that the actions created to slow the pandemic caused lots of preventable deaths, and certainly not more deaths than those caused by the pandemic itself during that time.
“There have certainly been increases in deaths due to heart attacks, strokes, Alzheimer’s, and some of these could be linked to avoiding emergency healthcare,” Weinburger said. “I think the increases related to lockdown measures are small compared to the increases caused directly by covid-19. A number of states that implemented lockdown measures but had small epidemics of covid-19 in March-May had little excess death.”
Untangling how deadly covid-19 has been and will be is something that will take a long time. But it’s likely that we’ve been getting better at it as time has gone on, since tests have become more available. So we might not see such a wide gap between excess and covid-19 deaths going forward, provided testing remains available. But there may still be differences between states, depending on their guidelines for declaring a death to be due to covid-19 (some but not all states now publicly share data on probable covid-19 deaths).
Even now, this study highlights just how much suffering has been caused by covid-19, and how much of its destruction early on we may have missed. Weinburger and his team, for their part, hope that their research and model will continue to provide a key tool in measuring the true toll of the pandemic.
As of July 1, the U.S. has reported around 127,000 coronavirus deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University’s tracker.
Shell Is the Latest Oil Company to Do a Belly Flop
Brian Kahn
Today 11:52AM
Filed to:BIG OIL
Photo: Ben Stansall (Getty Images)
We’re halfway through 2020, and I think we can all safely say it’s been a pretty terrible year. There’s been so much terrible stuff in the past two months alone, I can’t even remember the bad stuff that happened in January. But I’m sure it sucked.
So I’ll take minor bits of good news where I can get it. And the latest is Shell writing down $22 billion on its balance sheets, making it the latest oil company to acknowledge that things are probably not going back to the way they were.
The company announced it expected the dip in value to be driven by both its oil and gas sides of the business on Tuesday. The problem, for Shell and other fossil fuel companies big and small, is that the pandemic has cratered demand. The price of oil dipped into negative territory for a hot second in April, and the fallout has continued. Shell follows in the footsteps of BP, which did the whole write down thing in mid-June to the tune of $17.5 billion. The Shell announcement came the same week Chesapeake Energy, the company that led the fracking boom in the U.S., declared bankruptcy after years of riding high on debt.
While the coronavirus has certainly spurred the industry’s free fall, there are signs this may be the start of a permanent decline. Even before the pandemic, the fracking industry was looking at some bills coming due that it was in all likelihood going to be unable to pay. And Big Oil stocks that have traditionally led the stock market had lost ground. That was underscored this week when Tesla’s stock price surpassed Exxon’s. Symbolic? Sure. But these are signs in the real world oil ain’t coming back.
In May, Shell foreshadowed what was to come when its C-suite level executives told investors the coronavirus has caused “major demand destruction that we don’t even know will come back.” When the pandemic recedes, the climate crisis still looms large (hell, it’s looming large even as the pandemic rages). Digging up more oil and gas is simply not an option in the coming decade, and the world—and the oil industry—is increasingly waking up to that.
The Future Earth Challenges Us to Break Our Cycle of Doom
In an era of the climate crisis, it’s easy to imagine things getting worse because that’s all we…Read more
Watching the oil industry’s rapid decline is a marvel to behold after decades of climate activist pressure did almost nothing to budge it. While it’s good news in the sense that it edges the world closer to keeping the climate habitable, it’s bad news for oil and gas workers. Shell and BP are among oil companies trying to become “energy” companies. What exactly the shape of an energy company looks like remains to be seen, though it’s worth noting oil companies’ climate plans are of questionable repute at best. The one thing that is clear: People will lose their jobs.
Shell has been offering voluntary buyouts. BP also announced it was laying off 10,000 workers. While the company was nice enough to give them laptops, that a laptop is not a job, nor is it a long-term solution. Letting capitalism do its thing is a surefire way to screw workers (see: coal, cars, history). Governments need to stop trying to bring oil back by funding a dirty recovery and come up with a plan to help fossil fuel workers transition to the economy-to-be. Shell is only the latest oil company to flail, but it certainly won’t be the last.
Brian Kahn
Today 11:52AM
Filed to:BIG OIL
Photo: Ben Stansall (Getty Images)
We’re halfway through 2020, and I think we can all safely say it’s been a pretty terrible year. There’s been so much terrible stuff in the past two months alone, I can’t even remember the bad stuff that happened in January. But I’m sure it sucked.
So I’ll take minor bits of good news where I can get it. And the latest is Shell writing down $22 billion on its balance sheets, making it the latest oil company to acknowledge that things are probably not going back to the way they were.
The company announced it expected the dip in value to be driven by both its oil and gas sides of the business on Tuesday. The problem, for Shell and other fossil fuel companies big and small, is that the pandemic has cratered demand. The price of oil dipped into negative territory for a hot second in April, and the fallout has continued. Shell follows in the footsteps of BP, which did the whole write down thing in mid-June to the tune of $17.5 billion. The Shell announcement came the same week Chesapeake Energy, the company that led the fracking boom in the U.S., declared bankruptcy after years of riding high on debt.
While the coronavirus has certainly spurred the industry’s free fall, there are signs this may be the start of a permanent decline. Even before the pandemic, the fracking industry was looking at some bills coming due that it was in all likelihood going to be unable to pay. And Big Oil stocks that have traditionally led the stock market had lost ground. That was underscored this week when Tesla’s stock price surpassed Exxon’s. Symbolic? Sure. But these are signs in the real world oil ain’t coming back.
In May, Shell foreshadowed what was to come when its C-suite level executives told investors the coronavirus has caused “major demand destruction that we don’t even know will come back.” When the pandemic recedes, the climate crisis still looms large (hell, it’s looming large even as the pandemic rages). Digging up more oil and gas is simply not an option in the coming decade, and the world—and the oil industry—is increasingly waking up to that.
The Future Earth Challenges Us to Break Our Cycle of Doom
In an era of the climate crisis, it’s easy to imagine things getting worse because that’s all we…Read more
Watching the oil industry’s rapid decline is a marvel to behold after decades of climate activist pressure did almost nothing to budge it. While it’s good news in the sense that it edges the world closer to keeping the climate habitable, it’s bad news for oil and gas workers. Shell and BP are among oil companies trying to become “energy” companies. What exactly the shape of an energy company looks like remains to be seen, though it’s worth noting oil companies’ climate plans are of questionable repute at best. The one thing that is clear: People will lose their jobs.
Shell has been offering voluntary buyouts. BP also announced it was laying off 10,000 workers. While the company was nice enough to give them laptops, that a laptop is not a job, nor is it a long-term solution. Letting capitalism do its thing is a surefire way to screw workers (see: coal, cars, history). Governments need to stop trying to bring oil back by funding a dirty recovery and come up with a plan to help fossil fuel workers transition to the economy-to-be. Shell is only the latest oil company to flail, but it certainly won’t be the last.
SPACE
A Massive Star Has Disappeared Without a Trace
"the case of the dog star that did not bark in the night"
George Dvorsky
Yesterday 6:00AM
Filed to:VANISHING STARS
Artist’s impression of the disappearing star.Image: ESO
An unusually bright star has gone missing, in a mystery of cosmic proportions.
An object inside the Kinman dwarf galaxy has disappeared from view, according to new research published today in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. This massive and exceptionally bright blue star was hypothesized to exist based on astronomical observations made between 2001 and 2011, but as of 2019, it is no longer detectable.
The authors of the study, led by PhD student Andrew Allan of Trinity College Dublin, have conjured two possible explanations: Either the star has experienced a dramatic drop in luminosity and is now partially hiding behind some dust, or it transformed into a black hole without sparking a supernova explosion. If it’s the latter, it would represent just the second known failed supernova.
The Kinman dwarf galaxy is located 75 million light-years from Earth, so it’s not close by any means. Astronomers cannot discern individual stars owing to the tremendous distances involved, but the hypothesized star in question is a luminous blue variable (LBV), which is detectable at extreme distances. LBVs are massive and unpredictable stars at the end of their lives. The variable nature of this star, through its dramatic shifts in spectra and brightness, can be spotted from Earth. Incredibly, this suspected star is 2.5 million times brighter than our Sun.
Or at least it was.
Image of the Kinman Dwarf galaxy, also known as PHL 293B. This tiny galaxy is too far for scientists to pick out individual stars, so what look like stars in this Hubble image are either stars in foreground or gigantic star clusters within the galaxy itself.Image: NASA, ESA/Hubble, J. Andrews
Observations gathered from 2001 to 2011 pointed to a late-stage LBV in the Kinman dwarf galaxy. In 2019, a team of astronomers wanted to take another look to see how it was doing, and they did so using the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope. To their surprise, there was nothing to see—a result that was both exciting and discouraging at the same time.
“We were all pleasantly surprised to find that the star’s signature was not present in our first observation taken in August 2019 using the ESPRESSO instrument of ESO’S Very Large Telescope,” Allan told Gizmodo. “We initially hoped for a higher-resolution observation that resembled the past observations, which we would use for our models.”
Figuring there was something wonky with ESPRESSO, Allan and his colleagues decided to take another look with the telescope’s X-shooter instrument.
“We rechecked the ESPRESSO observation a number of times but were unable to detect the star’s signature,” said Allan. “As the conditions were not perfect on the day this observation was made, we wanted to make sure the signature was truly absent. This time we used the X-Shooter instrument of the Very Large Telescope and were happy to find that this also pointed towards the star disappearing.”
With nothing new to see, and with a mystery that suddenly needed to be solved, the team dove into the archives, looking at previous observations of the dwarf galaxy. As it turns out, the suspected massive star experienced a strong outburst period that came to end around 2011. LBVs are known to throw the odd temper tantrum, resulting in a sudden loss of mass and a sharp increase in brightness.
In the wake of this particular outburst period, it’s possible that “we are seeing the end of an LBV eruption of a surviving star, with a mild drop in luminosity, a shift to hotter effective temperatures, and some dust obscuration,” wrote the authors in the study. So the star might still be active, it’s just now too dim for us to detect from Earth.
Another possible explanation is that the star collapsed into a massive black hole without an accompanying supernova explosion—what astronomers call a failed supernova.
“This would be consistent with some of the current computer simulations that predict that some stars will not produce a bright supernova when they die,” Allan told Gizmodo. “This happens when a massive black hole is formed, and it is not spinning very fast. However a collapse to a black hole without producing a supernova has only been observed once in the past, in the galaxy of NGC 6946 where a smaller massive star seemed to disappear without a bright supernova explosion.”
If a supernova-less transition into a black hole is the case, it would mark the first known example of this happening to a massive star in a low metallicity galaxy, a finding that “could hold important clues as to how stars could collapse to a black hole without producing a bright supernova,” said Allan.
“It’s a very interesting finding that is reported in the paper, with a very careful and well done analysis,” Beatriz Villarroel, a postdoc at IAC Tenerife and the Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics, told Gizmodo. “LBVs are unstable stars, and the analysis presented by the authors certainly contributes to the understanding of these quizzical objects. In this particular case, it’s likely that they’ve observed the end of a strong eruption with a surviving star,” said Villarroel, who wasn’t involved in the new study.
Weird ‘Vanishing Stars’ Could Potentially Be Aliens, Study Claims
After you have eliminated the impossible
whatever is left, no matter how improbable is
the truth.
S. Holmes, Consulting Detective
As a relevant aside, the new paper is not to be confused with a similar paper co-authored by Villarroel from last year. Instead of tracking the disappearance of LBVs, Villarroel and her colleagues tracked a phenomenon known as red transients, in which dim red dots get brighter and then recede from view.
Imre Bartos, a physicist at the University of Florida, said we have lots to learn about massive stars and how they die, given their rarity and short lifetimes.
“The current consensus is that stars cannot end their lives as black holes heavier than about 65 times the mass of the Sun,” Bartos, who wasn’t involved in the new study, told Gizmodo. “If the disappearance of the star is indeed due to its collapse to a heavier black hole, we will have to rethink our understanding of how stars live and die.”
To which he added: “At this point, there are still uncertainties about this result and it is important to study this observation further, so additional observations and a thorough search for similar disappearances are critical.”
To support the failed supernova hypothesis, Villarroel said, “we need to look for objects that stay missing for decades.” And given the “very short time scales involved in the observations in the current paper, it makes me think we’re going see more [activity] from that star again,” she told Gizmodo.
That’s an exciting possibility, requiring astronomers to train their telescopes toward the Kinman dwarf galaxy. This mystery is far from being solved, but if Villarroel is correct, there’s still potential for this star, if it still exists, to shine brightly once again.
Correction: Because of a typo, we wrote that the star was 2.5 times brighter than the Sun. It’s actually 2.5 million times brighter, which is a whole lot more.
Weird ‘Vanishing Stars’ Could Potentially Be Aliens, Study Claims
George Dvorsky
12/17/19
•Filed to:WE’RE NOT SAYING IT’S ALIENS
Now you see it, now you don’t: A celestial object appears in an old telescopic plate (left) but is strangely missing in a later plate (right).Image: Villarroel et al. (2019
A comparative analysis of historical and contemporary astronomical data has resulted in the discovery of approximately 100 star-like objects that unexpectedly vanished. These strange occurrences are likely natural, but scientists say alien technology is a remote possibility.
They start off as dim red dots in the night sky. But then they start to get brighter—anywhere from several to thousands of times brighter. And then they disappear, vanishing from sight in typically less than an hour.
But what are they?
The red transients were detected thanks to Vanishing & Appearing Sources during a Century of Observations (VASCO)—a project that’s living up to its name. Established in 2017, VASCO researchers are hunting for objects outside of Earth’s immediate area that have mysteriously disappeared. As the authors note in the study:
Unless a star collapses directly into a black hole, there is no known physical process by which it could physically vanish. If such examples exist this makes it interesting for searches for new exotic phenomena or even signs of technologically advanced civilizations.
For the latest research, Villarroel and her colleagues looked at archival astronomical data collected during the previous century, particularly data found in the U.S. Naval Observatory Catalogue (USNO). This old data was then compared to modern celestial catalogs, including the recently concluded Pan-STARRS Data Release-1 (DR1).
From a pool of 600 million objects, the scientists found 151,193 that weren’t represented in the modern catalogs. To date, Villarroel and her colleagues have only had a chance to analyze 23,667 of these anomalous objects, or just 15.7 percent. Taking this preliminary sample set aside and studying them closer, the researchers found most of them to be “artifacts of various sorts,” wrote the authors, such as smudges on lenses and other visual defects.
But roughly 100 of these objects could not easily be explained away, warranting their designation as red transients. These objects tended to be very red and made distinguishing movements across the field of view, namely larger proper motions than typical objects in the USNO catalog. Known celestial phenomena, such as asteroids, fast-moving stars, or stars that have simply moved away from view, were ruled out as possibilities.
Now, stars don’t just up and disappear without a trace. Stars, of course, eventually burn out, but they tend to expire in one of two ways, either retiring as white dwarfs or going out with a tremendous bang in the form of a supernova. Another possibility—although a theoretical one at that—is for a star to fall into a black hole, in what astronomers refer to as a failed supernova.
In the new study, the researchers didn’t completely rule out the possibility that supernovae were to blame, saying further research is needed to be sure. As for failed supernovae, they’re expected to be exceptionally rare, and the authors “demonstrate with theoretical calculations that one is not likely to encounter a failed supernova in the VASCO searches,” as they wrote in the study. Another possibility not ruled out by the scientists is that the transient flashes of light are massive solar flares emanating from red dwarfs, among other natural possibilities.
The Many, Many Times Astronomers Mistook Mundane Phenomena for Aliens
The science world is all in a tizzy this week about the supposed discovery of an alien…Read more
Fascinatingly, the researchers devoted significant space in the new study for a more radical possibility: the activities of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI). Of course, invoking the alien card is often a good sign that scientists are flummoxed—something seen repeatedly over the course of astronomical history. But that doesn’t mean they should refrain from raising this possibility, and this case is no exception.
As the authors speculate, the dots of red light could be powerful lasers used for interstellar communication or heat waste emanating from Dyson spheres—hypothetical megastructures that envelop entire stars.
Interestingly, VASCO started off as a kind of SETI side project, that is, searching for weird stuff in space that can’t otherwise be explained as originating from natural phenomenon.
“But we are clear that none of these events have shown any direct signs of being ETI,” said Martin López Corredoira, a co-author of the paper, in a press release. “We believe that they are natural, if somewhat extreme, astrophysical sources.”
A thorough follow-up study of these red transients is warranted, according to the authors, who added that their investigation into all 151,193 objects still needs to be concluded. To that end, they hope to recruit artificial intelligence to speed up the process and also arrange a citizen science project.
A Massive Star Has Disappeared Without a Trace
"the case of the dog star that did not bark in the night"
George Dvorsky
Yesterday 6:00AM
Filed to:VANISHING STARS
Artist’s impression of the disappearing star.Image: ESO
An unusually bright star has gone missing, in a mystery of cosmic proportions.
An object inside the Kinman dwarf galaxy has disappeared from view, according to new research published today in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. This massive and exceptionally bright blue star was hypothesized to exist based on astronomical observations made between 2001 and 2011, but as of 2019, it is no longer detectable.
The authors of the study, led by PhD student Andrew Allan of Trinity College Dublin, have conjured two possible explanations: Either the star has experienced a dramatic drop in luminosity and is now partially hiding behind some dust, or it transformed into a black hole without sparking a supernova explosion. If it’s the latter, it would represent just the second known failed supernova.
The Kinman dwarf galaxy is located 75 million light-years from Earth, so it’s not close by any means. Astronomers cannot discern individual stars owing to the tremendous distances involved, but the hypothesized star in question is a luminous blue variable (LBV), which is detectable at extreme distances. LBVs are massive and unpredictable stars at the end of their lives. The variable nature of this star, through its dramatic shifts in spectra and brightness, can be spotted from Earth. Incredibly, this suspected star is 2.5 million times brighter than our Sun.
Or at least it was.
Image of the Kinman Dwarf galaxy, also known as PHL 293B. This tiny galaxy is too far for scientists to pick out individual stars, so what look like stars in this Hubble image are either stars in foreground or gigantic star clusters within the galaxy itself.Image: NASA, ESA/Hubble, J. AndrewsObservations gathered from 2001 to 2011 pointed to a late-stage LBV in the Kinman dwarf galaxy. In 2019, a team of astronomers wanted to take another look to see how it was doing, and they did so using the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope. To their surprise, there was nothing to see—a result that was both exciting and discouraging at the same time.
“We were all pleasantly surprised to find that the star’s signature was not present in our first observation taken in August 2019 using the ESPRESSO instrument of ESO’S Very Large Telescope,” Allan told Gizmodo. “We initially hoped for a higher-resolution observation that resembled the past observations, which we would use for our models.”
Figuring there was something wonky with ESPRESSO, Allan and his colleagues decided to take another look with the telescope’s X-shooter instrument.
“We rechecked the ESPRESSO observation a number of times but were unable to detect the star’s signature,” said Allan. “As the conditions were not perfect on the day this observation was made, we wanted to make sure the signature was truly absent. This time we used the X-Shooter instrument of the Very Large Telescope and were happy to find that this also pointed towards the star disappearing.”
With nothing new to see, and with a mystery that suddenly needed to be solved, the team dove into the archives, looking at previous observations of the dwarf galaxy. As it turns out, the suspected massive star experienced a strong outburst period that came to end around 2011. LBVs are known to throw the odd temper tantrum, resulting in a sudden loss of mass and a sharp increase in brightness.
In the wake of this particular outburst period, it’s possible that “we are seeing the end of an LBV eruption of a surviving star, with a mild drop in luminosity, a shift to hotter effective temperatures, and some dust obscuration,” wrote the authors in the study. So the star might still be active, it’s just now too dim for us to detect from Earth.
Another possible explanation is that the star collapsed into a massive black hole without an accompanying supernova explosion—what astronomers call a failed supernova.
“This would be consistent with some of the current computer simulations that predict that some stars will not produce a bright supernova when they die,” Allan told Gizmodo. “This happens when a massive black hole is formed, and it is not spinning very fast. However a collapse to a black hole without producing a supernova has only been observed once in the past, in the galaxy of NGC 6946 where a smaller massive star seemed to disappear without a bright supernova explosion.”
If a supernova-less transition into a black hole is the case, it would mark the first known example of this happening to a massive star in a low metallicity galaxy, a finding that “could hold important clues as to how stars could collapse to a black hole without producing a bright supernova,” said Allan.
“It’s a very interesting finding that is reported in the paper, with a very careful and well done analysis,” Beatriz Villarroel, a postdoc at IAC Tenerife and the Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics, told Gizmodo. “LBVs are unstable stars, and the analysis presented by the authors certainly contributes to the understanding of these quizzical objects. In this particular case, it’s likely that they’ve observed the end of a strong eruption with a surviving star,” said Villarroel, who wasn’t involved in the new study.
Weird ‘Vanishing Stars’ Could Potentially Be Aliens, Study Claims
whatever is left, no matter how improbable is
the truth.
S. Holmes, Consulting Detective
As a relevant aside, the new paper is not to be confused with a similar paper co-authored by Villarroel from last year. Instead of tracking the disappearance of LBVs, Villarroel and her colleagues tracked a phenomenon known as red transients, in which dim red dots get brighter and then recede from view.
Imre Bartos, a physicist at the University of Florida, said we have lots to learn about massive stars and how they die, given their rarity and short lifetimes.
“The current consensus is that stars cannot end their lives as black holes heavier than about 65 times the mass of the Sun,” Bartos, who wasn’t involved in the new study, told Gizmodo. “If the disappearance of the star is indeed due to its collapse to a heavier black hole, we will have to rethink our understanding of how stars live and die.”
To which he added: “At this point, there are still uncertainties about this result and it is important to study this observation further, so additional observations and a thorough search for similar disappearances are critical.”
To support the failed supernova hypothesis, Villarroel said, “we need to look for objects that stay missing for decades.” And given the “very short time scales involved in the observations in the current paper, it makes me think we’re going see more [activity] from that star again,” she told Gizmodo.
That’s an exciting possibility, requiring astronomers to train their telescopes toward the Kinman dwarf galaxy. This mystery is far from being solved, but if Villarroel is correct, there’s still potential for this star, if it still exists, to shine brightly once again.
Correction: Because of a typo, we wrote that the star was 2.5 times brighter than the Sun. It’s actually 2.5 million times brighter, which is a whole lot more.
George Dvorsky
12/17/19
•Filed to:WE’RE NOT SAYING IT’S ALIENS
Now you see it, now you don’t: A celestial object appears in an old telescopic plate (left) but is strangely missing in a later plate (right).Image: Villarroel et al. (2019A comparative analysis of historical and contemporary astronomical data has resulted in the discovery of approximately 100 star-like objects that unexpectedly vanished. These strange occurrences are likely natural, but scientists say alien technology is a remote possibility.
They start off as dim red dots in the night sky. But then they start to get brighter—anywhere from several to thousands of times brighter. And then they disappear, vanishing from sight in typically less than an hour.
But what are they?
New research published in the Astronomical Journal calls them “red transients,” of which roughly 100 have been chronicled by the authors, a team led by Beatriz Villarroel from Stockholm University and the Institute of Astrophysics of Canarias in Spain. More colloquially, they’re referred to as “vanishing stars,” and they’re baffling scientists.
The red transients were detected thanks to Vanishing & Appearing Sources during a Century of Observations (VASCO)—a project that’s living up to its name. Established in 2017, VASCO researchers are hunting for objects outside of Earth’s immediate area that have mysteriously disappeared. As the authors note in the study:
Unless a star collapses directly into a black hole, there is no known physical process by which it could physically vanish. If such examples exist this makes it interesting for searches for new exotic phenomena or even signs of technologically advanced civilizations.
For the latest research, Villarroel and her colleagues looked at archival astronomical data collected during the previous century, particularly data found in the U.S. Naval Observatory Catalogue (USNO). This old data was then compared to modern celestial catalogs, including the recently concluded Pan-STARRS Data Release-1 (DR1).
From a pool of 600 million objects, the scientists found 151,193 that weren’t represented in the modern catalogs. To date, Villarroel and her colleagues have only had a chance to analyze 23,667 of these anomalous objects, or just 15.7 percent. Taking this preliminary sample set aside and studying them closer, the researchers found most of them to be “artifacts of various sorts,” wrote the authors, such as smudges on lenses and other visual defects.
But roughly 100 of these objects could not easily be explained away, warranting their designation as red transients. These objects tended to be very red and made distinguishing movements across the field of view, namely larger proper motions than typical objects in the USNO catalog. Known celestial phenomena, such as asteroids, fast-moving stars, or stars that have simply moved away from view, were ruled out as possibilities.
Now, stars don’t just up and disappear without a trace. Stars, of course, eventually burn out, but they tend to expire in one of two ways, either retiring as white dwarfs or going out with a tremendous bang in the form of a supernova. Another possibility—although a theoretical one at that—is for a star to fall into a black hole, in what astronomers refer to as a failed supernova.
In the new study, the researchers didn’t completely rule out the possibility that supernovae were to blame, saying further research is needed to be sure. As for failed supernovae, they’re expected to be exceptionally rare, and the authors “demonstrate with theoretical calculations that one is not likely to encounter a failed supernova in the VASCO searches,” as they wrote in the study. Another possibility not ruled out by the scientists is that the transient flashes of light are massive solar flares emanating from red dwarfs, among other natural possibilities.
The Many, Many Times Astronomers Mistook Mundane Phenomena for Aliens
The science world is all in a tizzy this week about the supposed discovery of an alien…Read more
Fascinatingly, the researchers devoted significant space in the new study for a more radical possibility: the activities of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI). Of course, invoking the alien card is often a good sign that scientists are flummoxed—something seen repeatedly over the course of astronomical history. But that doesn’t mean they should refrain from raising this possibility, and this case is no exception.
As the authors speculate, the dots of red light could be powerful lasers used for interstellar communication or heat waste emanating from Dyson spheres—hypothetical megastructures that envelop entire stars.
Interestingly, VASCO started off as a kind of SETI side project, that is, searching for weird stuff in space that can’t otherwise be explained as originating from natural phenomenon.
“But we are clear that none of these events have shown any direct signs of being ETI,” said Martin López Corredoira, a co-author of the paper, in a press release. “We believe that they are natural, if somewhat extreme, astrophysical sources.”
A thorough follow-up study of these red transients is warranted, according to the authors, who added that their investigation into all 151,193 objects still needs to be concluded. To that end, they hope to recruit artificial intelligence to speed up the process and also arrange a citizen science project.
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