It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, September 01, 2020
AI research to aid women's safety on public transport
Dr Johan Barthelemy and Ms Yan Qian from the SMART Infrastructure Facility at the University of Wollongong. Credit: Paul Jones, UOW
World-first artificial intelligence software will target violence on public transport.
Researchers from the SMART Infrastructure Facility at the University of Wollongong (UOW) are developing software that will allow existing closed circuit television cameras to automatically identify and report suspicious or violent incidents.
The project was one of four winners of Transport for NSW's Safety After Dark innovation challenge.
"Research into women's safety revealed that girls and women do not always feel safe participating in our city at night," the brief stated.
"While many factors contribute to this, transportation was identified as an area where improvement could be made."
A team led by Dr. Johan Barthelemy will develop artificial intelligence (AI) software that will automatically analyse real-time camera feeds and alert an operator when it detects a suspicious incident or an unsafe environment.
"The AI will be trained to detect incidents such as people fighting, a group of agitated persons, people following someone else, and arguments or other abnormal behaviour," Dr. Barthelemy said.
"It can also identify an unsafe environment, such as where there is a lack of lighting.
"The system will then alert a human operator who can quickly react if there is an issue."
The data and reports automatically generated by the software can then be used to help prevent the abuse and violence committed towards women after dark in public transportation.
Helping him on the project will be Ph.D. student Ms Yan Qian, whose thesis looks at using computer vision across multiple cameras to understand traffic and pedestrian flow.
"We are using open-source code that tries to estimate the poses of a human being and predict if there's a fight," she said.
"The incident will then be reviewed by a human controller who will accept or reject the suggestion made by the artificial intelligence.
"In this way, the program will become smarter, learning in a similar way to a human being.
"As far as we know, nothing like this has been attempted globally. We are pushing the limits of the technology."
SMU Assistant Professor Wang Qiuhong delved deep into the internet to quantify cybersecurity risks induced by interconnection. Interdependence complicates efforts, but encouraging discussion of hacking techniques could help White Hats build stronger cybersecurity systems. Credit: Singapore Management University
While many people can name an Internet Service Provider (ISP) and describe what an ISP does, fewer people know the exchange of internet traffic that happens between different ISPs' networks, which are called Autonomous Systems (AS). Essentially a collection of connected Internet Protocol routing prefixes under the control of one or more network operators, an AS routes and exchanges traffic with other ASes following a common, clearly defined routing policy to the internet.
By studying how different ASes connect to and are interdependent on other ASes for routing traffic, SMU Assistant Professor of Information Systems Wang Qiuhong has sought to characterize the interdependence in terms of critical information infrastructure crossing organizational and national boundaries.
Interconnection and cybersecurity threats
A big part of the issue lies in the fact that an ISP or content provider cannot dictate its peering partners' other peering relationships. She wrote:
"We are able to identify the countries who unintendedly become the critical intermediary to an organization's internet traffic but are not within the organization's decision scope. For example, an organization can choose its partners to transit or peer its internet traffic but cannot control the choices of its partners, which may result in unintended interdependence in internet traffic."
One of the focus areas of Professor Wang's project, which was awarded under the National Research Foundation (NRF) National Cybersecurity R&D Programme, is the peering relationship an AS establishes with other member ASes on an Internet Exchange Point (IXP), the physical infrastructure on which internet traffic is exchanged.
"Attack surface becomes broader while routing paths may become shorter when an organization connects into an IXP, because its networks can directly reach more of other organizations' networks via an IXP," she notes. "So we try to identify what kind of interconnections attract more attacks. On the other hand, some connections can reduce security threats."
She further explains: "Organizations are connected to IXPs to save costs and increase efficiency in internet traffic exchange. Because of these business incentives, they have to exchange and share information to facilitate transactions. Some of the information exchanged can actually help in traffic monitoring and validation. And in turn, these will reduce attacks."
"When the incentives of sharing information align with the security, this could improve security. Otherwise, it may easily induce more attacks."
Most of her research was done using multiple-sourced data available on the internet. "We tried to measure cybersecurity risk because [if there is] no measurement, [there will be] no management," she says, referring to her three-year study "Deterring Cybersecurity Threats through Internet Topology, Law Enforcement and Technical Mitigation" which concluded at the beginning of the year.
White hat, black hat
Professor Wang's project also explored the "online sharing of hacking techniques, investigating its impact on cybersecurity threats and evaluating the policy implications related to online knowledge sharing of hacking techniques".
"Discussing hacking techniques bears the dual-use nature of technology. It discloses cybersecurity exploits, which may promote hacking activities or may be helpful to white hats," she explains, referring to ethical hackers who are often hired to help organizations close loopholes in cybersecurity systems. "Publically available forums become a good place for them to get updated information on new malicious techniques."
By comparing cybersecurity professionals' diaries with four million posts on popular hacker sites such as hackforum.net, Professor Wang found similar topics 10 percent of the time on average.
"This is four million as compared to only thousands of diaries from 2002 to 2019," she explains. "But if we look at the highest figure, some professionals' diaries reach 50 percent and even higher [in terms of similar topics discussed]. That means that security techniques are dual use."
Professor Wang cited Singapore's Computer Misuse Act, which discourages the online sharing of cybersecurity techniques due to the prosecution threat posed by the dual use of cybersecurity technology. But because white hats have less incentive and incur higher cost when attempting to learn hacking techniques through other channels or even the darknet, publically accessible hacker forums become extra valuable to white hats.
What is missing but urgent in the regulation to ensure cybersecurity, Professor Wang notes, is not stricter legislation, better technology, or more economic incentive; it is education.
"It's about social norms, awareness, and educating people," she urges. "The pioneer countries in security education are European countries like the United Kingdom. They push for security education in primary schools and secondary schools. They are now looking for security professionals who can provide education on security in these schools."
"Governments have the resources to do that. We shouldn't expect less risk in the future. Education and awareness are general matters, but they are actually the most important in cybersecurity."
Dr Ciara Duffy at the Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research. Credit: Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research
Using the venom from 312 honeybees and bumblebees in Perth Western Australia, Ireland and England, Dr. Ciara Duffy from the Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research and The University of Western Australia, tested the effect of the venom on the clinical subtypes of breast cancer, including triple-negative breast cancer, which has limited treatment options.
Results published in the prestigious international journal npj Precision Oncology revealed that honeybee venom rapidly destroyed triple-negative breast cancer and HER2-enriched breast cancer cells.
Dr. Duffy said the aim of the research was to investigate the anti-cancer properties of honeybee venom, and a component compound, melittin, on different types of breast cancer cells.
"No-one had previously compared the effects of honeybee venom or melittin across all of the different subtypes of breast cancer and normal cells.
"We tested honeybee venom on normal breast cells, and cells from the clinical subtypes of breast cancer: hormone receptor positive, HER2-enriched, and triple-negative breast cancer.
"We tested a very small, positively charged peptide in honeybee venom called melittin, which we could reproduce synthetically, and found that the synthetic product mirrored the majority of the anti-cancer effects of honeybee venom," Dr. Duffy said.
"We found both honeybee venom and melittin significantly, selectively and rapidly reduced the viability of triple-negative breast cancer and HER2-enriched breast cancer cells.
"The venom was extremely potent," Dr. Duffy said.
A specific concentration of honeybee venom can induce 100% cancer cell death, while having minimal effects on normal cells.
"We found that melittin can completely destroy cancer cell membranes within 60 minutes."
Melittin in honeybee venom also had another remarkable effect; within 20 minutes, melittin was able to substantially reduce the chemical messages of cancer cells that are essential to cancer cell growth and cell division.
"We looked at how honeybee venom and melittin affect the cancer signaling pathways, the chemical messages that are fundamental for cancer cell growth and reproduction, and we found that very quickly these signaling pathways were shut down.
"Melittin modulated the signaling in breast cancer cells by suppressing the activation of the receptor that is commonly overexpressed in triple-negative breast cancer, the epidermal growth factor receptor, and it suppressed the activation of HER2 which is over-expressed in HER2-enriched breast cancer," she said.
Western Australia's Chief Scientist Professor Peter Klinken said "This is an incredibly exciting observation that melittin, a major component of honeybee venom, can suppress the growth of deadly breast cancer cells, particularly triple-negative breast cancer.
"Significantly, this study demonstrates how melittin interferes with signaling pathways within breast cancer cells to reduce cell replication. It provides another wonderful example of where compounds in nature can be used to treat human diseases", he said.
Dr. Duffy also tested to see if melittin could be used with existing chemotherapy drugs as it forms pores, or holes, in breast cancer cell membranes, potentially enabling the entry of other treatments into the cancer cell to enhance cell death.
"We found that melittin can be used with small molecules or chemotherapies, such as docetaxel, to treat highly-aggressive types of breast cancer. The combination of melittin and docetaxel was extremely efficient in reducing tumor growth in mice."
Dr. Duffy's research was conducted as part of her Ph.D. undertaken at Perth's Harry Perkins Institute of Medical Research at the Cancer Epigenetics laboratory overseen by A/Prof. Pilar Blancafort. "I began with collecting Perth honeybee venom. Perth bees are some of the healthiest in the world.
"The bees were put to sleep with carbon dioxide and kept on ice before the venom barb was pulled out from the abdomen of the bee and the venom extracted by careful dissection," she said.
While there are 20,000 species of bees, Dr. Duffy wanted to compare the effects of Perth honeybee venom to other honeybee populations in Ireland and England, as well as to the venom of bumblebees.
"I found that the European honeybee in Australia, Ireland and England produced almost identical effects in breast cancer compared to normal cells. However, bumblebee venom was unable to induce cell death even at very high concentrations.
One of the first reports of the effects of bee venom was published in Nature in 1950, where the venom reduced the growth of tumors in plants. However, Dr. Duffy said it was only in the past two decades that interest grew substantially into the effects of honeybee venom on different cancers.
In the future, studies will be required to formally assess the optimum method of delivery of melittin, as well as toxicities and maximum tolerated doses
More information: Ciara Duffy et al, Honeybee venom and melittin suppress growth factor receptor activation in HER2-enriched and triple-negative breast cancer, npj Precision Oncology (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41698-020-00129-0
Over the years, policymakers have enacted consumer protection laws and regulations to ensure better access to credit for low-income and minority consumers at fair lending rates. While these regulations make it illegal for financial institutions to discriminate against borrowers when making loan approval decisions, they do not guarantee equitable outcomes.
New research from the Olin Business School at Washington University in St. Louis has exposed a significant increase in poor customer service, fraud and mis-selling—or misrepresentation of a product or service's suitability—by retail banks in low-to-moderate income areas targeted by the Community Reinvestment Act, especially those with a high minority population.
Researchers believe the regulations' quantity-based goals, meant to measure a bank's compliance, are to blame. Their findings are forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Economics.
"Most regulations in the U.S. and around the world primarily focus on the quantity of loans to marginalized borrowers," said Taylor Begley, assistant professor of finance and study co-author. "These goals may unintentionally encourage banks to engage in aggressive sales tactics or make loans to uninformed borrowers without proper disclosure as they seek to satisfy their regulatory requirements."
To measure the quality of the mortgage-related financial products and services, Begley and co-author Amiyatosh Purnanandam, of the University of Michigan, used Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) data to track the incidence of consumer complaints against financial institutions.
These are typically not complaints that are easily resolved between the customer and financial institutions, otherwise they would have already been settled and not appear in the CFPB data, Begley noted.
"Mortgage products can be complex, and the transactions leave many potential borrowers at a substantial information disadvantage compared to sophisticated financial institutions," Begley said. "The complaints to the CFPB include allegations of hidden or excessive fees, unilateral changes in contract terms after the purchase, aggressive debt collection tactics and unsatisfactory resolution of mortgage servicing issues."
The data, collected between 2012-16, included about 170,000 complaints from more than 16,000 ZIP codes. With this robust dataset, researchers were able to draw comparisons of complaint rates between Community Reinvestment Act-targeted areas and similar control areas with no such regulation pressure, as well as comparisons between areas with above- and below-average minority populations.
Overall, researchers found substantially more complaints in ZIP codes with lower education rates, lower incomes and higher minority populations. Of these variables, though, high minority status had the greatest impact on complaints—approximately two to three times more than the effect of low income or low education alone.
Even more telling: Within neighborhoods containing a below-median minority population, the complaint rates were indistinguishable between the Community Reinvestment Act-target and control areas. However, in target areas with an above-average minority population, complaint rates were about 35% higher than similar control areas.
"While banks face pressure to increase the quantity of lending in every target area, in high-minority areas they effectively have two sources of pressure for regulatory compliance—lending to low-income customers and lending to minority customers," Begley explained.
"These results show that groups that are often the intended targets of consumer protection laws experience much worse outcomes in terms of quality."
Since its formation in 2010, the CFPB has fined financial institutions almost $10 billion to protect consumers. While it is difficult to pin down the precise economic costs of complaints for financial institutions, Begley said banks with more complaints paid significantly higher fines.
Previous research has studied the quantity of lending to low-income customers and pricing, but this study is among the first to measure the quality of these products. Begley said better understanding the quantity-quality trade-off could have broad policy implications.
"Regulations such as the Community Reinvestment Act that aim to meet the needs of low- and moderate-income neighborhoods may be successful in increasing the amount of credit extended in those areas. However, it's important to remember that the loan approval decision is only one part of the lending process," Begley said.
"Our research shows that regulators' outsize focus on the loan approval decision may come with unintended adverse consequences for consumers on other important, but more-difficult-to-regulate, dimensions, including the customer's understanding of the mortgage, whether it is a good fit for them and how lenders treat borrowers during renegotiation."
More information: Taylor A. Begley. Color and Credit: Race, Competition, and the Quality of Financial Services, SSRN Electronic Journal (2017). DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2939923
The loss of employer-sponsored health insurance can be a serious concern for older people
BE$T HEALTHCARE MONEY CAN BUY
by Sophie Burkholder, The Philadelphia Inquirer
Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain
Michael Kerr thought he would be back to work by now. When the 52-year-old from Reading, Pa., was put on furlough from his retail manager position in mid-March, he figured the business would reopen by April, reinstating him and other employees.
But as his furlough dragged on into June, he realized his job loss would become permanent, leaving him without income or his employer-sponsored health insurance.
"I felt like I needed to cover myself in bubble wrap and stay in the house," he said. "Every ache and pain got a little bit more scary."
Kerr is one of millions of American workers who have lost their job-based health insurance during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Kaiser Family Foundation has estimated that 27 million Americans could lose their employer-sponsored insurance and become uninsured due to the pandemic. Older workers under age 65 are among the most vulnerable.
Those numbers are staggering to people such as Kerr, who not only have to pay higher premiums for health insurance as they get older but may also have a harder time finding a new job, even when the economy isn't in a recession. "The closer you get to 60, the more difficult and scary it gets," he said. "Even by then, you've still got five more years to muddle through before getting government assistance."
Stan Dorn, director of the National Center for Coverage Innovation for the consumer group Families U.S., says that loss of insurance among people in the age range of 45 to 64 can be dire, as they often have greater health costs in medications or chronic conditions. "These folks are more expensive for an employer than younger adults because the average cost of health insurance is more for them," he said. And that added cost could be "an extra incentive to get rid of them."
The loss of health insurance for this group and others could also have a severe impact on the economy, Dorn said.
"When patients don't come to the hospital because they don't have insurance anymore, that means revenue dries up," he noted. "And those hospitals, clinics, and other providers would have to lay off staff."
Dorn also fears that the economy will continue to see more layoffs into the fall, and with it, more people losing their job-based health insurance. He thinks that could lead some people to delay or go without the care they need simply because they can no longer afford it.
"Patients with chronic conditions won't be able to afford their prescriptions, or they'll cut their pills in half," he said. "We'll see more people playing Russian roulette with their lives."
When the Affordable Care Act was passed in 2010, it increased coverage in two ways: by expanding Medicaid for the poor and improving plans for individuals. For the latter, the act set up a system so that nearly 90% of applicants received subsidies that reduced monthly premiums. The act also increased insurance protections for consumers, by banning plans that had lifetime caps on coverage or didn't cover preexisting conditions. More than 20 million people were able to get insurance. But over time, the law's regulations have been weakened, making room for new and cheaper plans with lesser coverage to enter the marketplace.
When Kerr realized that his furlough would turn into a permanent layoff and that his benefits would come to an end, he tried to navigate the health insurance marketplace on his own. But he quickly grew confused by the discrepancies in cost and coverage between all the available options.
"I almost made a bad decision on a plan that would've been more expensive and the coverage a lot less," he said of a plan through Oscar Health, which started providing coverage in the Philadelphia region only this year. "Health care really should be simplified somehow."
Kerr sought out the help of Young's Insurance Services, a health and life insurance brokerage agency based in Norristown. James Long, an agent there who frequently works with people in Kerr's age group, says that people in similar situations often have only two options: extend their employer-sponsored coverage by enrolling in COBRA, or find a plan through the marketplace and hope for discounts through subsidies. Long and agents like him are paid on commission, through marketing dollars incorporated into all policies.
Fortunately, Kerr qualified for some subsidies and was able to get an affordable plan through the marketplace, saving him from a COBRA option that was beyond his price range. But Long says that for people who are unable to receive subsidies, COBRA tends to be the better option.
Long often sees confusion among clients about how COBRA works. "Lots of people think it's its own health plan," he said. "But they're actually continuing on the same plan from their former employer, just now paying full price for it" without their employer's contribution.
That full price can lead to sticker shock, as Long notes that COBRA often falls in the range of $600 to $800 a month. Despite that jump in monthly cost, Long says that "equivalent plans on the marketplace without subsidies could be double that price."
David Grande, director of policy at the University of Pennsylvania's Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics, agrees with Long that COBRA might be the best choice for some people. For a person to qualify for subsidies, he notes that a person's household income needs to be below 400% of the poverty level, or $86,880 for a family of three. "If you have the financial resources for COBRA, that's probably the best option."
Still, Grande bemoans the lack of federal intervention on health care, especially as pandemic-related economic damage grows more permanent. He thinks, like Kerr, that navigating the health-care marketplace is too confusing, and that there's a lot of misunderstanding around who qualifies for subsidies and what the different options are.
"There needs to be a strong national effort to make subsidized coverage advertised, available, and easy to access," he said. "We're seeing the limits of the Affordable Care Act through individuals who don't qualify for subsidies, who probably should be subsidized at a point like this."
Some of the solutions Grande sees for these problems would be to expand Medicaid in states that haven't already done so, increasing the number of people who are able to enroll. (Pennsylvania and New Jersey have both expanded Medicaid.)
State-based exchanges, which Pennsylvania is set to begin in 2021, could help cut costs for individuals, as well, but he says that bigger issues surround who qualifies for subsidies. Those regulations can be changed only by the federal government, he noted.
Ellen Grubawsky, another client of Young's Insurance Services, also had to find new coverage after her furlough became a permanent layoff at a company where she had worked for 30 years. But at age 62, the Perkiomenville resident is more worried about securing a new job before becoming eligible for Medicare at 65.
"I'm uneasy about finding a job when the time comes, but I just have to wait and see what happens," she said.
Though Grubawsky qualified for subsidies that gave her discounted options, she says, the final added cost of almost $300 a month on her new plan is one more bill that's increasingly difficult to pay without a steady income. Worse yet, she has concerns that her new insurance has less coverage than her job-based plan. "I'm not even sure the plan I picked is the best one."
While enrolling in a new plan has made Grubawsky feel more secure about her situation, she still feels uncertain about her finances for the future. She hasn't ruled out collecting her Social Security early or considering a reverse mortgage (a loan that allows homeowners over 62 to draw out part of their home's equity as income) if the economy doesn't improve. Though she's still able to support herself through her severance package, Grubawsky acknowledged "that money only goes so far."
"It's very scary," she said. "I feel very uneasy about the whole situation.
As the eviction moratorium is about to expire, a new study finds that many Los Angeles County renters are facing financial ruin. Credit: Tierra Mallorca, Unsplash
Twenty-two percent of Los Angeles County tenants paid rent late at least once from April to July and about 7% did not pay any rent at least once between May and July, according to a joint UCLA-USC report released Monday as a statewide eviction moratorium is set to expire.
The report documents hardships like unpaid rent that tenants are facing during the COVID-19 pandemic and traces those hardships overwhelmingly to lost work and wages as a result of the economic shutdown.
Among households in the county that did not pay rent, either in full or partially, about 98,000 tenants have been threatened with eviction while an additional 40,000 report that their landlord has already begun eviction proceedings against them. California's moratorium on evictions is scheduled to end Tuesday, but lawmakers are considering a bill that would extend certain protections through Jan. 31.
Researchers at the UCLA Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies and the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate analyzed data from the U.S. Census, as well as from an original survey of 1,000 Los Angeles County renter households conducted in July . The survey, in particular, gave researchers new insights into the circumstances facing L.A. renters. The study was authored by Michael Manville, Paavo Monkkonen and Michael Lens of the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs and Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center.
"I think everyone understood, early on, that renters might be in trouble as a result of COVID-19 and its economic fallout, but conventional sources of data don't give us a good window into whether renters are paying or not, and into how they are paying if they do pay," said lead author Manville, an associate professor of urban planning.
"We were able, by using data from a special census survey and especially our own original survey of renters, to get a direct sense of these questions."
The researchers first analyzed the U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Survey, a weekly survey that asked if renters have paid rent on time and if they think they will be able to pay the next month's rent on time. This data was augmented by the UCLA-USC survey, which asked not only if renters paid on time but if they paid in full and if they were threatened with an eviction or had eviction proceedings initiated against them.
The study found that tenants have been facing unprecedented hardships during the COVID-19 crisis, substantially more so than homeowners. Overall, the study also found that most tenants are still paying their rent during the pandemic but are often doing so by relying on unconventional funding sources. The majority who pay late or not at all have either lost their work, gotten sick with COVID-19 or both.
New study highlights tenants' financial peril as evictions loom
Among the findings:
About 16% of tenants report paying rent late each month from April through July.
About 10% did not pay rent in full for at least one month between May and July.
About 2% of renters are three full months behind on rent. This translates to almost 40,000 households in a deep financial hole.
Late payment and nonpayment are strongly associated with very low incomes (households earning less than $25,000 annually) and being Black or Hispanic.
Nonpayment is more common among tenants who rent from friends and family.
This crisis is particularly acute in the Los Angeles region and other high-cost cities, where an existing affordable housing crisis and an economic slowdown resulting from mitigation efforts to curb the pandemic intersect to threaten the stability of many households.
"Even before the pandemic, L.A. renters, especially low-income renters, were struggling," said Lens, associate faculty director of the UCLA Lewis Center. And while most renters who miss rent have entered into some type of repayment plan, they're not out of the woods yet.
"Nonpayment occurs disproportionately among the lowest-income renter households, so repaying back rent could be a tremendous burden for them," he added.
The study also found that renters were suffering disproportionately from anxiety, depression and food scarcity, and they are relying much more than in the past on credit cards, family and friends, and payday loans to cover their expenses. One-third of households with problems paying rent relied on credit card debt and about 40% used emergency payday loans.
The prevalence of these nonconventional forms of payment, along with the incidence of job loss among tenants, suggests the importance of direct income assistance to renter households.
Tenants collecting unemployment insurance were 39% less likely to miss rent payments. Just 5% of households that hadn't lost a job or fallen sick reported not paying rent.
Government assistance can help tenants pay rent—and more—amid pandemic
Green noted that, although data show that most renters have been paying their rent, government policies can help strengthen the ability to do so.
"One of the main concerns among landlords at the beginning of the pandemic was that tenants weren't going to pay their rent if they knew they weren't going to be evicted," he said. "Not only have we not seen any evidence of this, but getting money in renters' hands through unemployment insurance or rental assistance helps a lot."
Monkkonen, an associate professor of urban planning and public policy, agreed. Helping renters now will not only stave off looming evictions next month but "also prevent cumulative money problems that are no less serious, such as renters struggling to pay back credit card debt, struggling to manage a repayment plan or emerging from the pandemic with little savings left," he said.
Across the state, most evictions were halted in April by the California Judicial Council, the state's court policymaking body.
The eviction moratorium was set to expire in June, but that was postponed to Sept. 1 to allow local and state lawmakers more time to develop further protections, including the bill currently under consideration. Given the unconventional means renters reported using to pay rent, the new study says that policies providing funds to renters could help mitigate a swath of evictions and homelessness that had been predicted by previous reports by researchers at UCLA and elsewhere
Fish invasions follow Panama and Suez canal expansions
by Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Panama Canal locks are periodically emptied to perform routine maintenance. Credit: Gustavo Castellanos, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
World maritime trade grows each year, aided by canal waterways that connect oceans and reduce shipping time, energy consumption and carbon emissions. Following recent expansions of the Panama and Suez canals, non-native fish species are invading new habitats according to a new report in Nature Ecology and Evolution by researchers at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) in Panama and the Leibnitz Center for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT) in Germany. "We're seeing a shift from predominantly freshwater fishes to marine fishes in the Panama Canal (Lake Gatun) in a short period of time," said Mark Torchin, STRI marine ecologist. "The concern is that if fish invasions continue there is a good chance of some of those fishes moving into the other ocean, with unknown environmental consequences." Larger locks to allow transit of NeoPanamax vessels (NeoPanamax refers to ships too big to pass through the original 1914 locks) through the Panama Canal were finished in 2016. Expansion of the Suez Canal to include a new, 35-kilometer channel concluded in 2015.
"During the planning phases of both projects, researchers warned about the risks of expanding these two canals," said Gustavo Castellanos-Galindo, postdoctoral fellow at STRI and guest scientist at ZMT. "This report documents those changes in real time."
Only four years after the Panama Canal expansion, long-term monitoring recorded the presence of 11 new marine fish species in Lake Gatun, which has served as a freshwater barrier to movement of marine fauna between Pacific and Atlantic Oceans since the canal opened in 1914. This takes the total number of marine fish species known from in the lake from 18 to 29. Marine fishes such as jacks, snooks, mojarras and ladyfish have entirely replaced freshwater fishes in some parts of the lake.
PlayGroup from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute invited by the Panama Canal Authority to collect fish during the process of emptying and cleaning the Miraflores locks. After the locks were emptied, the team descends a scaffolding stairwell to the base of the chamber. They used nets to capture fish. Credit: Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Salinity in the lake increased, although the cause has not yet been determined. Possibilities include increased ship traffic and lock usage and the new locks' design, which incorporates recirculation of some lockage water.
"These marine fish invasions are an early warning sign of what could happen if no corrective measures are taken," Castellanos-Galindo said. "Along both coasts of Panama there are hundreds of fish species that could tolerate the conditions of an even slightly brackish canal. We don't know what the ecological and socioeconomic consequences of these fishes crossing the canal to either the Pacific or the Atlantic would be."
"We can document the Panama Canal invasions because we have good, standardized and quantitative pre-expansion data," said D. Ross Robertson, STRI ichthyologist. "We need to get back out there to collect more data to find out exactly what is going on and to provide the science that will help policy makers mitigate the potential impact. This is a really good example of how the pandemic has interrupted field work with important implications for environmental decision making."
Whereas the barrier to fish crossing from ocean to ocean in Panama is a freshwater lake, in the Suez waterway, the Bitter Lakes were originally saltier than the Mediterranean and Red Sea, which also limited species movement. Nonetheless, throughout the history of the Suez Canal, more than 400 non-native animal species, including more than 100 species of marine fishes from the Red Sea, have entered the Mediterranean. With canal expansion, increased water flow diluted the lakes and eight new fish species entered the Mediterranean during the past five years.
Because fees for shipping through the canals account for roughly 10% of the gross domestic product in Panama and in Egypt, there is an economic incentive to continue to increase shipping traffic through the canals. The authors suggest creative, science-based solutions to limit environmental and socioeconomic damage. They propose that the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030) may provide the ideal opportunity for ensuring that the canals are included in international maritime policy to limit the environmental and economic impacts of invasive species. In addition, because policy changes can take a long time to implement, they also suggest that the shipping industry could proactively address this issue.
The UN agency responsible for sustainable shipping, the International Maritime Organization, has implemented guidelines and obligations to reduce the spread of non-native species through ballast water—but they do not apply specifically to the canals.
In the case of the Suez Canal, it may be possible to use the hypersaline effluent from desalinization plants to make the Bitter Lakes saltier again, with the caveat that this alternative should be studied carefully before implementing. In both cases, sophisticated monitoring tools—using DNA in water samples to generate lists of the species detected and using sound to detect invaders, may help to catch invaders early before they establish large populations. Technology may also be put to work to directly address invasion by means of acoustic and/or electric barriers to deter invaders.
The authors hope that all of the stakeholders will recognize the importance of having the best scientific data in hand as they design new policy and mitigation measures.
Explore furtherLong-term consequences of river damming in the Panama Canal More information: Gustavo A. Castellanos-Galindo et al, A new wave of marine fish invasions through the Panama and Suez canals, Nature Ecology & Evolution (2020).
UConn MS student Nicole Dahrouge, who maintained wood frog tadpoles under detailed temperature and salinity conditions during the spring of 2020. Credit: University of Connecticut
A virus affecting wood frog tadpoles throughout the eastern United States is offering scientists a rare opportunity to investigate the role of environmental factors in the spread of infectious disease.
An important aspect of controlling the spread of any virus is understanding how the virus, or agent, is transmitted through the environment to the host. Scientists refer to the trio of agent, host, and environment as the epidemiological triangle or triad. In the COVID-19 pandemic, the agent is the SARS-CoV-2 virus, humans are the host species, and the environment now includes ecosystems throughout the planet. Scientists have made strides in understanding the nature of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the infection it causes in its human hosts, and they have identified variables in the host population that can cause some individuals to be more severely affected by the virus than others. As researchers continue to learn about environmental factors that facilitate the spread of COVID-19, we practice social distancing and wear masks to contain airborne droplets from our mouths and noses.
The interrelationships among agent, host, and environment are complex, and possible variables in each of the three are limitless, making it impossible, when studying them as a system, to tease out the differential effects of the individual players. While agent and host can be studied in isolation and in direct relationship to each other within the laboratory, environmental factors also play a role in disease dynamics, meaning that any conclusions reached will not fully reflect that happens in natural systems. However, Associate Professor Tracy Rittenhouse has developed an experimental model where the focus is the effects of the environment in epidemics rather than the details of the agent and host interaction.
Several years ago, Rittenhouse, a faculty member in the Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, learned of wood frog tadpole dieoffs in northeastern Connecticut that had been found to be caused by Ranavirus Frog virus 3 (FV3). To measure the prevalence of FV3 in the area, Rittenhouse harvested tadpoles from numerous wetlands over a two-year period and found that the frog virus was much more widespread than previously known. But, the population of wood frogs, a species known to be particularly susceptible to FV3, did not appear to be declining, and some live tadpoles harvested from wetlands were found to be infected with the virus, both of which indicated that the virus was not always lethal.
From her surveys, Rittenhouse learned that when tadpole dieoffs did occur, it was often at the same developmental stage, just before metamorphosis. The carcasses would remain visible in the water for only one to three days. The tadpole carcasses decomposed so quickly it was if they had disappeared. Determining whether tadpoles died and decomposed or metamorphosed into frogs and left the wetland would have required simultaneously monitoring all wetlands where the virus was known to be present, which was not feasible.
Says Rittenhouse, "We don't have a good explanation for why we could have found the virus so commonly and not have dieoff events. I think there's some middle ground. I believe there are more dieoff events happening than we're detecting, but we don't yet know what triggers them. We're concerned that changes occurring in environmental conditions, such as salinity levels or temperature, might be increasing the likelihood of dieoffs." An additional question is whether the tadpoles are particularly susceptible at the stage when dieoffs have occurred, or if something occurs in the environment at that time.
A fruitful collaboration
The study of interactions among agent, host, and environment is best done with a collaborative approach incorporating a range of expertise. Says Rittenhouse, "I study populations. I know a lot about wood frogs–I know where wood frogs live, what types of environments they live in, what causes high survival, and what causes low survival. But I'm not a disease expert." So, she teamed up with Jesse Brunner, a disease ecologist, and Erica Crespi, a physiologist, both at Washington State University, who have studied Ranavirus and its effects on individual tadpoles. Brunner specializes in the relationship between Ranavirus and its host, while Crespi is an expert on tadpole health.
Rittenhouse devised a set of experiments in which two environmental stress factors—salinity and temperature—are manipulated to identify what, if any role, they play in triggering dieoffs related to FV3. Says Rittenhouse, "Road salt and temperature are two environmental conditions that we're manipulating because they're common things in the environment, and they are both changing a lot, regionally and globally. Salinization of our fresh waters is a very hot topic because it's happening along our coastlines. As sea level rises, there's saltwater intrusion into freshwater systems and into terrestrial environments. But that's also happening in forests in terrestrial conditions when we add road salt to our roads, and it runs off into freshwater wetlands and streams."
During the spring of 2019, Rittenhouse built outdoor experimental systems called mesocosms, which simulate the natural environment but allow for the control of some factors. She set up 150 fifty-gallon tanks, each of which, when filled with water, leaf litter and tadpoles, represents a wetland. These wetlands received natural rainfall, nutrient inputs from the air (think oak tree pollen in the spring), and daily temperature fluctuations as the sun rose and set. She controlled for variables in the virus and host: Egg masses from different wetlands were mixed to create heterogeneous but similar populations for each tank, and Brunner isolated and extracted the virus from samples Rittenhouse collected in the wild. Finally, one tadpole infected with FV3 was added to each tank. In her experiments, Rittenhouse manipulated the temperature and salinity levels of some tanks and maintained some tanks as controls.
Rittenhouse, Brunner, and Crespi had developed hypotheses for expected mortality rates in response to the environmental manipulations. As the tadpoles matured, Rittenhouse and the students in her lab group monitored all the tadpoles in every tank, every day during May and June 2019. The result was more than twenty epidemiological curves for each temperature-salt combination.
"What our project brings is the ability to manipulate a population and see how changes to environmental conditions change how spiked or flat an epidemic curve is," Rittenhouse says. "And there really are not a lot of study systems where you can manipulate that epidemic curve. Much of what we know about disease epidemics is based on mathematical models. Our project uses a study system where we can manipulate a population and quantify an epidemic curve in a two-to-three-month period for 150 populations, but it's real data from real animals. It's a way to confirm that some of our mathematical models are correct."
Ironically, the studies Rittenhouse planned for continuing the FV3 research during the summer of 2020 had to be postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The experiments would have required eight undergraduate student research assistants working together every day to monitor tadpole mortality. So, like everyone else, Rittenhouse pivoted. No frog virus was put into the tanks. Instead she and one graduate student focused their efforts on finely tuned manipulations of salt and temperature in the absence of the virus.
Next spring, when more is known about how people can work safely in a world with COVID, then Rittenhouse and her students will return to her NSF- funded research on Ranavirus epidemics.
Rittenhouse says, "Each spring in my population dynamics course, I teach students how to use data we collect in the wild, counting animals, to develop estimates of birth rates, death rates, survival rates. We take those estimates and build population-level models that predict if a population is going to increase or decrease over time and link that to trends we observe in the wild. But in this case, the cool thing is we can create all these experimental populations—150 different populations—and we can measure the population response. How peaked was the curve? How flat was the curve? What's the timespan between the beginning and end of the epidemic? How do changes in environmental conditions that might be stressful for individuals or populations change the shape of an epidemic curve?"
Basalt, the most-common rock on Earth’s surface, encases green crystals--a geologic "nesting doll" phenomenon called a xenolith. Basalts such as this one derive from a section of the mantle that has been depleted in incompatible trace elements, which is usually attributed to continental crust formation. In their work, Tucker and his collaborators propose another mechanism that would impart this signature. Credit: Carnegie Institution for Science
The composition of Earth's mantle was more shaped by interactions with the oceanic crust than previously thought, according to work from Carnegie's Jonathan Tucker and Peter van Keken along with colleagues from Oxford that was recently published in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems.
During its evolution, our planet separated into distinct layers—core, mantle, and crust. Each has its own composition and the dynamic processes through which these layers interact with their neighbors can teach us about Earth's geologic history.
Plate tectonic processes allow for continuous evolution of the crust and play a key role in our planet's habitability. Earth has two kinds of tectonic plates: those that host continents, which have survived for billions of years, and those that are mostly covered by oceans. Oceanic plates are created by the upward motion of mantle material that occurs when plates spread apart. They are destroyed by sliding under continental plates and back into the mantle, a process that also forms new continental crust.
"The chemical composition of the mantle is influenced by continent formation and geoscientists can read chemical markers left behind by this process," Tucker explained.
For example, some of the elements found in crustal rocks don't play nicely with the mantle's minerals. When continental crust formation draws these elements out of the mantle, they leave behind a depleted residue, like sucking the juice out of a Sno-Cone and leaving just ice. This is referred to as crust extraction and is usually thought to create "scars" that are easy to spot and identify in rocks. It also leaves behind distinct zones in the mantle that are depleted of these particular elements.
"It's long been thought that these chemical scars are the product of crust formation," Tucker explained. "But mantle's inaccessibility means that it's difficult to know for sure using rock and mineral samples alone."
To probe the question of the origin of these depleted reservoirs in the mantle, Tucker, van Keken, and their Oxford colleagues Rosemary Jones and Chris Ballentine developed a new model, which showed that the "scar-forming" process of sequestering of incompatible elements from the rest of the mantle is occurring not just in the crust but independently in the deep mantle thanks to old oceanic plates that were drawn all the way down.
"Our work demonstrates that the processes determining the mantle's composition are more complicated than we previously thought," Tucker concluded.
More information: Jonathan M. Tucker et al. A Role for Subducted Oceanic Crust in Generating the Depleted Mid‐Ocean Ridge Basalt Mantle, Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems (2020). DOI: 10.1029/2020GC009148
