Joe Biden says the US will rejoin the Paris Agreement in 77 days.

Then Australia will really feel the heat

Climate change, overfishing, pollution and invasive species is causing a biodiversity crisis 

(AP Photo/Michael Probst, File) Source: AAP

BY CHRISTIAN DOWNIE

When the US formally left the Paris Climate Agreement, Joe Biden tweeted that “in exactly 77 days, a Biden Administration will rejoin it”.

The US announced its intention to withdraw from the agreement back in 2017. But the agreement’s complex rules meant formal notification could only be sent to the United Nations last year, followed by a 12-month notice period — hence the long wait.

While diplomacy via Twitter looks here to stay, global climate politics is about to be upended — and the impacts will be felt at home in Australia if Mr Biden delivers on his plans.
Biden’s position on climate change

Under a Biden administration, the US will have the most progressive position on climate change in the nation’s history.

Mr Biden has already laid out a US$2 trillion clean energy and infrastructure plan, a commitment to rejoin the Paris agreement and a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050.

As Mr Biden said back in July when he announced the plan: "If I have the honour of being elected president, we’re not just going to tinker around the edges. We’re going to make historic investments that will seize the opportunity, meet this moment in history."

And his plan is historic. It aims to achieve a power sector that’s free from carbon pollution by 2035 — in a country with the largest reserves of coal on the planet.

Mr Biden also aims to revitalise the US auto industry and become a leader in electric vehicles, and to upgrade four million buildings and two million homes over four years to meet new energy efficiency standards. 

Can he do it under a divided Congress?

While the votes are still being counted — as they should (can any Australian believe we actually need to say this?) — it seems likely the Democrats will control the presidency and the House, but not the Senate.

This means Mr Biden will be able to re-join the Paris agreement, which does not require Senate ratification. But any attempt to legislate a carbon price will be blocked in the Senate, as it was when then-President Barack Obama introduced the Waxman-Markey bill in 2010.

In any case, there’s no reason to think a carbon price is a silver bullet, given the window to act on climate change is closing fast.

What’s needed are ambitious targets and mandates for the power sector, transport sector and manufacturing sector, backed up with billions in government investment.

Fortunately, this is precisely what Mr Biden is promising to do. And he can do it without the Senate by using the executive powers of the US government to implement a raft of new regulatory measures.

Take the transport sector as an example. His plan aims to set “ambitious fuel economy standards” for cars, set a goal that all American-built buses be zero emissions by 2030, and use public money to build half a million electric vehicle charging stations. Most of these actions can be put in place through regulations that don’t require congressional approval.

And with Mr Trump out of the White House, California will be free to achieve its target that all new cars be zero emissions by 2035, which the Trump administration had impeded.

If that sounds far-fetched, given Australia is the only OECD country that still doesn’t have fuel efficiency standards for cars, keep in mind China promised to do the same thing as California last week.

What does this mean for Australia?

For the last four years, the Trump administration has been a boon for successive Australian governments as they have torn up climate policies and failed to implement new ones.

Rather than witnessing our principal ally rebuke us on home soil, as Obama did at the University of Queensland in 2014, Prime Minister Scott Morrison has instead benefited from a cosy relationship with a US president who regularly dismisses decades of climate science, as he does medical science. And people are dying as a result.

For Australia, the ambitious climate policies of a Biden administration means in every international negotiation our diplomats turn up to, climate change will not only be top of the agenda, but we will likely face constant criticism.



‘#ParisAgreement — ASAP!’ World leaders reference climate change in Biden congratulations

Indeed, fireside chats in the White House will come with new expectations that Australia significantly increases its ambitions under the Paris agreement. Committing to a net zero emissions target will be just the first.

The real kicker, however, will be Mr Biden’s trade agenda, which supports carbon tariffs on imports that produce considerable carbon pollution. The US is still Australia’s third-largest trading partner after China and Japan — who, by the way, have just announced net zero emissions targets themselves.



Scott Morrison with a piece of coal at Parliament House in Canberra in February 2017.
AAP CLEAN COAL FOR PRESENTATION IN THE HOUSE

Should the US start hitting Australian goods with a carbon fee at the border, you can bet Australian business won’t be happy, and Mr Morrison may begin to re-think his domestic climate calculus.

And what political science tells us is if international pressure doesn’t shift a country’s position on climate change, domestic pressure certainly will.

With Mr Biden now in the White House, it’s not just global climate politics that will be turned on its head. Australia’s failure to implement a serious domestic climate and energy policy could have profound costs.

Costs, mind you, that are easily avoidable if Australia acts on climate change, and does so now.

Dr Christian Downie is an Australian Research Council DECRA Fellow at the Australian National University.

SOURCE THE CONVERSATION

US election: Climate experts react to Joe Biden’s victory


JOSH GABBATISS 09.11.2020 | 1:21pm 

US POLICY US election: Climate experts react to Joe Biden’s victory

After a drawn-out election that saw narrow wins in a handful of battleground states, Joe Biden has emerged victorious over Donald Trump in the US presidential race.

While the incumbent president is still doing all he can to somehow discredit the voting, thoughts are now turning to what the result could mean for climate action after four years of a climate-sceptic populist residing in the White House.

Biden made climate change a cornerstone of his platform, pledging to spend $2tn on clean energy, re-join the Paris Agreement and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

However, his ability to realise these goals may be curtailed in the coming years by a likely Republican majority Senate.

Carbon Brief has asked an array of climate scientists and policy experts what Biden’s victory will mean for climate action in the US and around the world.

Dr Rachel Cleetus: “President-elect Joe Biden and vice-president elect Kamala Harris’ victory marks a new day in the fight for bold, just and equitable climate policy in the US – and also means that the US will rejoin the global community in recommitting to the goals of the Paris Agreement.”
Tasneem Essop: “The biggest significance of a Biden-Harris victory is the fact that the US will now have a leadership that believes in science.”
Peter Betts: “Biden’s victory massively enlarges the envelope of the possible for COP26 in Glasgow. The world’s biggest economy is back.”
Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte: “I would like to express the hope that the US, which has such an impressive research community…will enhance its support for science and strengthen science-based decision making.”
Prof Piers Forster: “Following Biden’s win, the US will re-join the Paris negotiations and other nations will be compelled to join the net-zero club and, in 30 years time, we may just get there.”
Carlos Fuller: “Meaningful action toward [net-zero] domestically, together with a re-energised role in the negotiation process, will have an outsized effect globally and encourage other large emitters to step up.”
Sue Reid: “While opportunities for sweeping policy reform remain uncertain as control of the US Senate hangs in the balance, much of Biden’s $2tn climate action plan can be unleashed regardless of the outcome.”
Li Shuo: “There are, unfortunately, not a lot of issues on which the interests of [China and the US] are aligned. Climate change remains one of the few exceptions.”
Alden Meyer: “To have the credibility to call on others to increase their climate ambition, president Biden will need to put forward an ambitious US 2030 nationally-determined contribution (NDC) well in advance of next November’s climate summit in Glasgow.”
Dr Niklas Höhne and Dr Bill Hare: “If president-elect Joe Biden goes ahead with his net-zero emissions pledge by 2050 for the US…a tipping point is being approached that puts the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit within reach.”

Dr Joeri Rogeli: “The announced investments in clean energy, together with support for US regions to transition away from fossil fuels, presents a balanced plan, broadly aligned with the scientific evidence.”
Prof Robert Bullard: “The Biden-Harris victory ushers in desperately needed new leadership at the top and a welcome sense of urgency for developing real solutions for achieving environmental and climate justice, economic justice, energy justice, health justice and racial justice for all.”
Dr Takeshi Kuramochi: “While Biden may not be able to push through much of his climate agenda without Congress, he can still make a significant impact, for example through Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations.”
Dr Farhana Sultana: “This was a climate election since a large majority of voters noted that they were concerned with climate breakdown. Biden has a climate plan and a mandate and he has promised to listen to scientists…which is vastly different from the last four years of war on science.”
Prof Michael Mann: “If Democrats win the presidency, but we have a nearly 50:50 split Senate, there is real opportunity for meaningful climate legislation, but it will require some degree of compromise.”
Helen Mountford: “An immediate priority is to realise the significant job and economic benefits that a green stimulus can deliver.”
Dr Maisa Rojas Corradi: “Biden’s victory will give a tremendous momentum to climate action, a momentum that was building up after the giant Asian countries announced carbon-neutrality compromises recently.”
Sonam P Wangdi: “We look forward to the US submitting an NDC that reflects its highest possible ambition…Scaled up climate finance to support developing countries to address climate change will be a key piece of this.”
Saad Amer: “As Biden builds back better, he must aggressively integrate a clean, just, sustainable economy into any Covid-19 relief and economic stimulus packages he implements.”
Prof Ricarda Winkelmann: “A win for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris means that the door to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 remains open.”

Dr Rachel Cleetus
Policy director, climate and energy programme
Union of Concerned Scientists


President-elect Joe Biden and vice-president elect Kamala Harris’ victory marks a new day in the fight for bold, just and equitable climate policy in the US – and also means that the US will rejoin the global community in recommitting to the goals of the Paris Agreement. I find myself filled with relief and hope after what has been a nightmarish four years of the Trump administration reversing or halting numerous federal climate policies, sidelining and silencing scientists and trying to tamper with scientific reports.

The US – like many other parts of the world – is reeling from the compounding effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, the economic crisis and the on-going climate crisis. The crisis of systemic racism also looms large in our nation’s consciousness. This year has brought a relentless barrage of wildfires, hurricanes, heatwaves and floods that have taken a devastating toll on people, particularly communities of colour and those who live in poverty. These challenges remain daunting today. But now we have a US president who has said he will actually work to address these problems, instead of one who lies relentlessly about their very existence, while actively making them worse.

The Biden administration must use its full powers, and work with Congress, to deliver on some critical priorities, outlined in this blog post. I don’t want to gloss over how difficult it will be to secure these policies, especially if the closely divided Congress fails to step up and do its part. We have yet to see a strong bipartisan commitment to climate action. The outcome of the Senate election, which is still not final, indicates that right now there isn’t a straightforward pathway to getting the 60 votes needed in the Senate to pass a sufficiently ambitious climate bill. And we will continue to face opposition from powerful fossil fuel interests trying to stymie progress on climate action while enriching themselves.

Addressing climate change will take deep commitment over a long time, well beyond the term of any one administration or congressperson. This highlights the continued importance of the global climate movement, which is now the broadest, most diverse, and most powerful it’s ever been. We may not agree on every policy detail, but we all see the urgent need for bold action, guided by science and fairness. The voices of ordinary people are vital in the fight ahead, putting pressure on policymakers and pushing the envelope of what is considered “politically feasible”.

Tasneem Essop
Executive director
Climate Action Network


President-elect Biden’s commitment to bring the US back into the Paris Agreement will provide an urgent and critical contribution towards a truly global effort to combat climate change. It could not have come sooner. The climate crisis is a global challenge needing a global response and global solidarity and done in a manner that is fair and just.

It is clear that Biden’s commitment to re-joining the Paris Agreement will not merely be a symbolic act. His victory provided him a clear mandate to act on climate. It is backed up by a strong climate platform based on the Green New Deal and a slew of climate policies already on the table.

The sustained hard work, courageous and audacious activism by the youth, grassroots, frontline and BIPOC [black, Indigenous and people of colour] communities during the past few years, in the challenging context of a country led by a president who did not believe in the science and denied the very existence of climate change, must be acknowledged and celebrated. It is due to these efforts that climate change is a top political priority for Biden, Harris and the Democratic Party. This makes me more optimistic that there will be real and meaningful action at a domestic level in the US, which in the end is what we need to address the climate crisis.

Real climate action in the US, and joined by others, will contribute to climate justice around the world, where poor and vulnerable people and communities are already bearing the burdens of the worst impacts of climate change. Finally, the biggest significance of a Biden-Harris victory is the fact that the US will now have a leadership that believes in science, knows that climate change is real and a threat and is committed to supporting united and multilateral action. Welcome back.

Peter Betts
Associate fellow (also former lead climate negotiator for the UK and the EU at COPs)
Chatham House


Biden’s victory massively enlarges the envelope of the possible for COP26 in Glasgow. The world’s biggest economy is back.

The US will need to come forward with an ambitious new nationally determined contribution (NDC) and climate finance. The nation can be expected to deploy its huge diplomatic clout in pressing for ambition from others too, as well as on broader climate challenges, from developing country debt to green recovery to reform of the international financial institutions. Of course huge challenges remain, but this is a massive injection of momentum.

Dr Valérie Masson-Delmotte
Co-chair, Working Group I
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

I am just coming out of three days of intense brainstorming to revise the summary for policy makers of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I report, on the physical science basis of climate change, building on review comments from the scientific community and from governments on the earlier draft, and with authors who are scientists from all regions of the world.

I would like to express the hope that the US, which has such an impressive research community and contribution to the production of new knowledge, in all fields, including climate change, will enhance its support for science and strengthen science-based decision making. If only greenhouse-gas emissions were monitored as closely as ballot counting…

Prof Piers Forster
Professor of climate physics and director
Priestley International Centre for Climate at theUniversity of Leeds

For me it’s all about optics. We are at a crucial time in raising our game, with countries declaring more ambitious emission reduction targets in time for the COP meeting next year. The UK, EU and China have already committed to net-zero by 2050 or soon after. Biden has committed the same. Following Biden’s win, the US will rejoin the Paris negotiations and other nations will be compelled to join the net-zero club and, in 30 years time, we may just get there.

Carlos Fuller
Lead climate negotiator
Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS)


President-elect Biden has demonstrated his commitment to act on climate change by announcing that he will take the critical step of re-entering the Paris Agreement. Even more significantly, he has set the target of taking US emissions to net-zero by 2050, the most ambitious climate platform of any elected US presidential candidate to date. Meaningful action toward this domestically, together with a re-energised role in the negotiation process, will have an outsized effect globally and encourage other large emitters to step up. Taken together with the stated ambitions of the EU and China, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is optimistic that we stand on the cusp of achieving a 1.5C global pathway.

That being said, this election has exposed stark divisions in the US regarding the direction the country should go, particularly on climate. For this new administration’s climate ambitions to be sustained in the long-term, the next four years will be critical to ease these divisions and move the country assuredly along this new path. It will require inspirational and decisive leadership. Still, the science is firmly on Mr. Biden’s side, and increasingly the economic argument as well.

AOSIS, therefore, stands ready to work constructively with his administration in maintaining the momentum of this turning tide.

Sue Reid
Principal advisor, finance
Mission 2020


The US now has a golden opportunity to recover from its four-year-long status as a rogue nation when it comes to action on climate. With the Biden administration expected to commit to net zero emissions by 2050, this would bring the entire G7 and the majority of the G20’s emissions into line with similar ambition, reinforce the global direction of travel in accelerating the transition away from high-carbon resources such as coal,oil and gas, and send a reinforcing signal to global investors.

While opportunities for sweeping policy reform remain uncertain as control of the US Senate hangs in the balance, much of Biden’s $2tn climate action plan can be unleashed regardless of the outcome. Through executive orders and administrative actions, the new Biden administration can reverse the Trump administration’s retrograde executive actions geared toward curbing climate action and, by contrast, catalyse progress on clean energy transition.

Options that do not require Congressional action range from phasing out fossil fuel extraction on public lands to ensuring that companies and investors assess, manage and disclose their exposures to climate-related risks, building from recent recommendations of the Commodities Future Trading Commission (CFTC). In addition, a strong majority of people in the US, across party lines, support stepped-up investment in clean energy. Accordingly, there is some potential for bipartisan cooperation and Congressional action to reboot the economy with new clean energy incentives and investments at scale even if the Senate does not find itself under new leadership.

By weathering the temporary departure of a nation that both is responsible for emitting more emissions cumulatively than any other and that also was centrally involved in creating the Paris Agreement’s architecture, the agreement has demonstrated its durability as all other nations remained on board. The world, thankfully, did not wait for the US to return to the climate action table. Now, the race to net-zero emissions and climate stability will be rejoined not a moment too soon by a nation under fresh leadership that intends to make up for lost time.

Li Shuo
Senior climate and energy policy officer
Greenpeace East Asia


Biden’s win will prevent the worst outcome for the global climate agenda. But to truly lead, the new US administration has its work cut out for itself. Strong near-term action is the minimum required to build up trust with other countries.

A lot has changed over the last four years that will make the future US-China climate engagement more difficult to predict than before. The bilateral relationship has deteriorated to a historical low and public perception of each nation has hardened.

Most recently, with the carbon neutrality announcement, China has demonstrated its willingness to pursue climate ambition without the US. All of these present both challenges and opportunities to work out the future G2 climate relationship. The fundamentals have not and will not change, though – to solve our climate problem, the most powerful nations have to row in the same direction. There are, unfortunately, not a lot of issues on which the interests of the G2 are aligned. Climate change remains one of the few exceptions.

Alden Meyer
Independent climate policy strategist (former director of strategy and policy at the Union of Concerned Scientists)

President-elect Biden has pledged to “lead an effort to get every major country to ramp up the ambition of their domestic climate targets”.

But to have the credibility to call on others to increase their climate ambition, president Biden will need to put forward an ambitious US 2030 NDC well in advance of next November’s climate summit in Glasgow. This NDC should be based on three main elements:
Making full use of executive authority under the Clean Air Act and other statutes to reduce emissions in the electricity and transportation sectors, constrain methane emissions from oil and gas production and cut emissions from heavy industry like steel and cement.
Making massive investments in renewables, energy efficiency and storage, electric vehicles and other climate-friendly technologies, as a key component of the Covid-19 economic recovery package that will be the immediate priority for the Biden-Harris administration.
Putting forward legislation covering a range of sectors, such as a clean electricity standard, incentives for healthy soil practices to sequester carbon on farms, and tax incentives for wind and solar energy investments, electric vehicle purchases, and other zero-carbon technologies.

In addition to federal action, the NDC should reflect the bold actions being taken by the states, cities, companies and others that have committed to meet US obligations under the Paris Agreement as part of the We Are Still In coalition. They are pledging to broaden and deepen their ambitious climate actions, which will help raise the level of ambition the US can put forward in its 2030 NDC.

The element that is least certain in all of this is climate and energy legislation, particularly if Republicans maintain control of the Senate. Some proposals, such as healthy soils incentives for farmers or tax credits for clean technologies, can attract bipartisan support. Others, such as a price on carbon or clean energy standards, would face more difficult prospects in a Republican Senate. The Biden-Harris administration should consult broadly with Congress, governors, mayors, business, labour, and other constituencies so as to ensure that the 2030 US NDC It puts forward has robust support.

It should aim for 2030 emissions reductions of at least 45-50% below 2005 levels. If there hasn’t been sufficient legislative action by Congress to achieve such a goal before the NDC needs to be submitted, one option could be to make a portion of the reduction commitment conditional on additional action by Congress. This could include the period after the 2022 elections, when Republicans could well lose several Senate seats and thus control of the Senate.

The Biden-Harris administration should also update the mid-century greenhouse gas strategy that was released in late 2016 by president Barack Obama. It should lay out clearly how the US can achieve the net-zero emissions target by 2050 goal that Biden campaigned on. This revised plan should also be put forward in advance of COP26 in Glasgow.

Other actions are needed, including delivering the unfulfilled $2bn portion of the Obama-Biden administration’s $3bn pledge to the Green Climate Fund and pushing for Senate ratification of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol in order to reduce production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons.

Dr Niklas Höhne and Dr Bill Hare
Climate Action Tracker

If president-elect Joe Biden goes ahead with his net-zero emissions pledge by 2050 for the US, this could shave 0.1C off global warming by 2100, according to our Climate Action Tracker. Coupled with China’s pledge to bring emissions to net-zero before 2060, and the EU, Japan and South Korea’s commitments to reach net-zero by 2050, a tipping point is being approached that puts the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C limit within reach.

Dr Joeri Rogeli
Director of research and lecturer in climate change and the environment
Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London


The Biden-Harris victory lights a beacon of hope for climate action. Most of these hopes come from the announced plan for a clean energy revolution and environmental justice. If implemented, the plan will be transformational in many aspects.

First, the Biden-Harris plan is ambitious domestically, with a decisive commitment to achieving net-zero emissions no later than 2050. The announced investments in clean energy, together with support for US regions to transition away from fossil fuels, presents a balanced plan, broadly aligned with the scientific evidence. The details, however, are unclear at this stage.

In isolation, I estimate that a US net-zero target would chisel off about a tenth of a degree of warming over this century. In combination with targets from the EU, China, South Africa, Japan, and South Korea, it quickly adds up to much more than half a degree – a decisive shift towards achieving the Paris Agreement.

Second, the Biden-Harris plan is also ambitious internationally. It expresses the intention to reassert a global leadership role in climate change diplomacy by recommitting to the Paris Agreement and integrating climate change in its foreign policy efforts and national security strategies. The importance of this commitment cannot be overstated and raises expectations that their proposed ambitious domestic action will also spill over internationally.

Finally, besides these promises, there is also hope that they can deliver. A Republican controlled US Senate will undoubtedly slow down the pace. However, Biden and Harris were elected with the support of many progressive voters who had Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren as their first choice. This progressive support, including inspiring young voices inside the party, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar, now translates into internal political pressure to deliver on the promises made.

Prof Robert Bullard
Distinguished professor of urban planning and environmental policy
Texas Southern University


The Biden-Harris victory ushers in desperately needed new leadership at the top and a welcome sense of urgency for developing real solutions for achieving environmental and climate justice, economic justice, energy justice, health justice and racial justice for all.

Dr Takeshi Kuramochi
Senior climate policy researcher
NewClimate Institute


If the president-elect goes ahead with his plan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 for the US, this will make half of global GHG emissions covered by national level net-zero commitments. Together with the US rejoining the Paris Agreement, it would mark the real start of the global “race to zero”.

That said, the president-elect’s commitment to 2050 net zero will be tested soon when the US has to submit its 2030 climate target to the UN. The possible Republican control over the Senate will make it all the more challenging. However, a 2050 net-zero target would all be pie in the sky without an ambitious 2030 target and a well-designed implementation plan. The same can be said for all other countries with net zero commitments, including China, EU, Japan and South Korea.

While Biden may not be able to push through much of his climate agenda without Congress, he can still make a significant impact, for example through Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations. Fuel economy and emission standards for vehicles consistent with a 2050 net-zero target implemented in the world’s second-largest car market would not only lead to significant domestic greenhouse-gas emissions reductions but also help accelerate the transformation of the global car manufacturing industry.

Dr Farhana Sultana
Associate professor in the department of geography
Syracuse University


Joe Biden being elected as president of the US is significant for climate action, not just nationally but internationally in my opinion. This was a climate election since a large majority of voters noted that they were concerned with climate breakdown. Biden has a climate plan and a mandate and he has promised to listen to scientists and scholars to help inform him, which is vastly different from the last four years of war on science and knowledge.

This should include addressing climate breakdown globally but also in hotspots, such as the Amazon, and also funding climate loss and damage happening across the Global South. I also hope there will be fossil fuel divestment and increasing renewable energy investments, but also discussions of reducing consumption habits domestically.

At the same time, serious discussion is needed on production patterns that rely on extractive and exploitative industries that all contribute to climate injustices globally, including industrial agriculture, and how these need to change. This means the US has to engage in discussion and concerted action on both mitigation and adaptation at both home and abroad, since globalisation and trade ties connect the country to other people’s ecosystems and societies.

A Biden presidency also signals to me that there will be more meaningful climate action and discussions on climate justice domestically, at the national, state, county, and municipality levels in coordinated ways. It means that there will likely be serious considerations of the Green New Deal or some form of holistic climate action.

Addressing climate justice also means addressing issues of racial injustices and gender injustices that are linked to climate injustices. Biden has mentioned that he will work on a range of issues of environmental justice, so my hope is that the scientific and scholarly community can work with his administration to make this materialise. For this to happen meaningfully, his administration should be diverse and representative of different communities and constituents.

One of the other things that I am hopeful for with the Biden presidency is better US engagement on issues such as climate migration and climate refugees. The US has a responsibility to address the outcomes of climate-induced displacement and dispossession elsewhere, which means addressing immigration and detention policies.

Prof Michael Mann
Distinguished professor of atmospheric science
Penn State University


The sobering reality is that even if every country meets their commitments under Paris, and many, including the US and EU are currently falling short, that gets us less than half way to where we need to be. That is, on a path to limiting warming below 2C, let alone the more stringent 1.5C many are now calling for. So Paris is a good starting point, but we need to go well beyond Paris now to achieve the reductions that are necessary.

A Biden victory ushers in a new era of global cooperation and allows us to repair much of the damage that was done to our reputation on the world stage by Trump over the past four years.

Biden has put forward a bold climate plan with ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions and support for both regulatory and market-driven policy measures. If Democrats win the presidency but we have a nearly 50:50 split Senate, there is real opportunity for meaningful climate legislation but it will require some degree of compromise.

Though my new book, The New Climate War, went to press this summer, it anticipates precisely where we’ll likely be given the anticipated makeup of the Senate: “Given an even modestly favorable shift in political winds, one could envision [a bold climate bill] passing the House and moving on to the Senate with a half-dozen or more moderate conservatives crossing the aisle, joining with Senate Democrats to pass the bill within the next year or two.”

In short, I’m cautiously optimistic that we’ll see meaningful action here in the US and a reassertion of global leadership on climate.

Helen Mountford
Vice president for climate and economics
World Resources Institute


President-elect Biden has laid out the most ambitious climate plan of any incoming administration in the US and it turns out this is exactly what Americans wanted. The 2020 election saw a landslide of voters calling for stronger action to combat climate change. Fox News exit polls found that 70% of voters support increased government spending on green and renewable energy, and 72% were somewhat or very concerned about the effects of climate change. 

Biden has clearly stated that one of his first actions as president will be to re-enter the Paris Agreement. This is an extremely important step towards restoring trust internationally. But on its own won’t be enough. It will need to be backed up with a bold national climate plan that puts the country on a path to a net-zero future.

The World Resources Institute suggests that the United States should commit to reduce its emissions by around 45-50% by 2030 compared with 2005 levels. A report on Accelerating America’s Pledge that we produced with partners found that expanded action by cities, states and businesses alone is on track to potentially reduce emissions by 37% by 2030. With renewed leadership at the federal level under the Biden administration, a target of 45-50% by 2030 is both ambitious and achievable.

An immediate priority is to realise the significant job and economic benefits that a green stimulus can deliver. Investing in solar power, energy efficiency, and public transport can generate over twice as many jobs per dollar spent as investments in coal and gas, for example..

It may be some time before we know which political party will control the US Senate, but even if Republicans keep control president Biden can take a number of significant actions to decarbonise the US economy. This includes reinstating and strengthening public health and environmental safeguards, such as setting standards for clean cars, more efficient appliances and emissions from steel and cement production. There is also strong bipartisan support for passing legislation for addressing hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).

Finally, the Biden administration can help catalyse an ambitious climate agenda by empowering states, cities and businesses to complement federal efforts to advance climate action.

Dr Maisa Rojas Corradi
Associated professor and COP25 scientific coordinator
University of Chile


Biden’s victory will give a tremendous momentum to climate action, a momentum that was building up after the giant Asian countries announced carbon-neutrality compromises recently. This means that in this crucial decade we will be able to tackle the climate crisis seriously. But it also means that the US can count on their scientists again for an evidence-based roadmap for all the transformations ahead.

Finally, I think that having a first woman vice-president is also a very positive sign of our times, where we need all on board to solve the multiple crises we are in.

Sonam P Wangdi
Chair
Least Developed Countries (LDC) Group


A bold, cooperative global response is urgently needed to address climate change. Joe Biden has been clear with his intention to re-join the Paris Agreement, demonstrating commitment to ensuring the US plays its part in holding global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, increasing the abilities of countries and communities to adapt to the impacts of climate change, and making finance flows consistent with low-carbon, climate-resilient development pathways.

The US is a major emitter. Ambitious domestic and international climate action at pace and at scale is urgently needed to ensure the safety and survival of the world’s most vulnerable. Biden’s victory offers hope for climate action in the US and around the world.

We look forward to the US submitting an NDC that reflects its highest possible ambition, and its respective responsibilities and capabilities. Scaled up climate finance to support developing countries to address climate change will be a key piece of this.

Saad Amer
Co-founder
Plus1Vote


Rejoining the Paris Accord via executive order is a first step, but it is symbolic in terms of impact. Globally, the Paris Accord has done little to reduce emissions.

While Biden’s victory is a major step forward for the global climate movement, we must acknowledge that a moderate approach to climate action will be fatal. We can no longer frame conversations based on 2030 or 2050 deadlines to push off action. As Biden builds back better, he must aggressively integrate a clean, just, sustainable economy into any Covid-19 relief and economic stimulus packages he implements, or there will be no way to avert a planetary climate crisis.

The IPCC makes it clear that we must reduce global emissions 7.5% every year from 2020 to 2030. The US has already lost out on reducing emissions in 2020. Biden must take action in his first 100 days in office to not only make up for 2020 emissions, but continue his first year in office to put the US on a trajectory to reduce emissions an additional 7.5%. This means Biden cannot invest into any new fossil fuel infrastructure and includes an outright ban on fracking.

This is a chance for Biden to reposition the US as a global leader. Anything short of significant emissions reductions will lock the world into a pattern headed toward a climate crisis.

Prof Ricarda Winkelmann
Professor of climate system analysis
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)


A win for Joe Biden and Kamala Harris means that the door to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 remains open. If they really step up to the challenge, this can be a tipping point towards long-term climate stabilisation and, ultimately, an important step on our path towards a safe and just future for people and p

Bolivia's socialists sweep back to power as Arce sworn in as President

By Daniel Ramos

LA PAZ (Reuters) - Bolivia’s Luis Arce was sworn in as president on Sunday, ushering the country’s powerful socialist party back into power a year after long-term leftist leader Evo Morales was ousted amid angry protests that sparked off a political crisis.

Arce, 57, was inaugurated in a ceremony in the highland city of La Paz, in front of heads of state from Argentina, Paraguay, Colombia and Spain, as well as senior officials from Chile, Iran and the government of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro.

The unassuming and bespectacled former economy minister, feted as the architect of Bolivia’s rapid growth under Morales, comes into office facing the huge task of healing the divisions of a political crisis and the coronavirus pandemic.

“We have before us the great challenge of rebuilding our economy again, of generating certainty, of generating growth,” Arce told a packed assembly of lawmakers and guests in Congress alongside his Vice President David Choquehuanca.

Arce pledged to “defeat” the pandemic in a country which has one of the worst death tolls per capita, and to heal political rifts and “put an end to fear” after deadly violence last year.

“I believe in justice, not in fostering an environment of resentment and revenge that does not respect the diversity of thought, where being from another party or political color makes you the object of hatred. That must end,” he said.

Tensions have remained high, especially over changes made by the socialist-controlled Congress to lower the majority needed to pass new laws and the planned return of Morales from exile in Argentina where he has lived since leaving Bolivia last year.

On Sunday, opposition lawmaker protested in Congress against the reduced majority, which would allow the ruling party to more easily push through new bills.

Morales, who led the country for almost 14 years as the first indigenous president, sparked a widespread backlash last year when he ran for an unprecedented fourth term in the face of term limits and a national referendum.

After claiming victory in that election, Morales was eventually forced to resign amid angry protests, and the police and military eventually dropping their support for him. He fled the country and a conservative interim government took over.

Arce, who was handpicked by Morales and is a close ally, has said that the former president will play no role in his government. Morales is expected to return to Bolivia on Monday before proceeding to his rural stronghold in Chapare.

As economy minister, Arce promoted nationalizing strategic sectors such as hydrocarbons and energy, and pushed domestic production with public investments and subsidies, which helped Bolivia grow at one of the fastest rates in Latin America.

Bolivia's Evo Morales heads home after socialist president sworn in

By Daniel Ramos, Miguel Lobianco

VILLAZON, Bolivia (Reuters) - Former longtime Bolivian leader Evo Morales crossed the border back into Bolivia on Monday, ending a year in exile, after a close ally and member of his MAS socialist party was sworn in as president.

Morales, who led Bolivia for almost 14 years as the first indigenous president, entered the country from Argentina after a farewell ceremony presided over by Argentine President Alberto Fernandez.

Morales, who left Bolivia under a cloud in November 2019 after international observers cited irregularities in an election that gave him a fourth term in office, said that being able to return filled him “with happiness.”

“Today is one of the most important days of my life, to be returning to the country that I love so much fills me with happiness,” he wrote on Twitter.

New President Luis Arce has said that Morales will play no role in his government

Morales crossed the border from Argentina, where he has been living in exile, at 9 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) and is expected to head to his rural stronghold in Chapare.

Around 2,000 supporters, including members of Argentine social and political groups, gathered at the La Quiaca crossing on Monday morning to see him off. They waved the flag of the Argentine indigenous people, and played music on traditional instruments, according to Reuters reporters.

Fernandez told the crowd that the electoral turmoil in Bolivia reminded all Latin Americans about the need for regional solidarity. “We are part of a large nation,” he said. “We don’t want countries for some, we want countries for all. It is the duty of all of us to stand up for threatened peoples.”

On the Bolivian side of the frontier, in Villazón, a far bigger crowd was waiting to welcome its exiled former leader.

Morales took part in an indigenous blessing ceremony before heading to address the large crowds gathered in Villazon.

After 11 months of caretaker government, Arce, 57, won elections in October by a landslide and was sworn in as president on Sunday in a ceremony in the highland city of La Paz in front of heads of state from Argentina, Paraguay, Colombia and Spain, as well as senior officials from Chile, Iran and the government of Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro.

The reserved former economy minister, feted as the architect of Bolivia’s rapid growth under Morales, vowed to “defeat” the coronavirus pandemic, “put an end to fear” after deadly electoral violence last year, and generate growth following the blow dealt by COVID-19 lockdowns.


Reporting by Daniel Ramos and Miguel Lobianco; Writing by Aislinn Laing; Editing by Mark Heinrich

 

UCLH first in world to trial inhaled surfactant for Covid-19

Monday, November 9, 2020

UCLH is the first hospital in the world to treat a Covid-19 patient with nebulised (inhaled) surfactant – a substance which makes it easier to breathe – as part of a clinical trial.

Lung surfactant is a substance that reduces the work of breathing and prevents the lungs from collapsing. In some respiratory diseases and in patients that require ventilation their own endogenous surfactant does not function normally.

Researchers in a study at UCL and UCLH, led overall by Prof Mike Grocott at University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust and funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, believe that deficiency in the functioning of surfactant may be linked with deterioration in patients with moderate to severe Covid-19.

The research team – including Prof Howard Clark, who is leading the UCL and UCLH portion of the study – will test whether early replacement of surfactant in patients could prevent disease progression and severity.

The first patient for the study has been recruited at UCLH and they were identified and treated by the Critical Care and Anaesthetic Research Teams, led by consultant Dr David Brealey. There are now two patients on the trial at UCLH.

For the pilot study, researchers will give up to 12 patients hospitalised with Covid-19 lung surfactant through use of the COVSurf Drug Delivery System, specially designed and supplied for the study by Aerogen Pharma as an extension of its AeroFact™ drug development program.  This novel mesh nebuliser device vibrates rapidly to turn liquid into droplets of ideal size for inhalation.

Researchers will look at whether offering surfactant via the COVSurf Drug Delivery System is feasible in Covid-19 patients, and will begin to assess whether the procedure improves patient outcomes. The dose given to patients will be increased gradually during the study – with researchers looking at measures including oxygenation in the body.

Use of surfactant is known to be safe and is already offered in other conditions, such as Neonatal Respiratory Distress Syndrome (RDS) – where the lungs cannot provide the body with enough oxygen because of surfactant deficiency.

Prof Clark said: “The possibility that early surfactant replacement could help in Covid-19 is compelling. Surfactant is damaged in Covid-19, resulting in surfactant deficiency and acute respiratory distress syndrome. Surfactant therapy has been very effective in saving the lives of newborn preterm infants who require breathing assistance because of surfactant deficiency. We are looking forward to seeing whether this procedure is feasible, safe and effective in Covid-19 patients.”

OPINION

Follow the theory to halt Covid-19
Politicians need to show more trust in the scientific method

BY ROGER HIGHFIELD

9 NOVEMBER 2020 CHEMISTRY WORLD

For any journalist, PR wonk or public engagement guru, it is humbling that the entire population of the planet has been gripped by an entity measuring 125 billionths of a metre across that barely counts as a living thing. The resulting pandemic has trigged the greatest and deepest public engagement with science that we have ever witnessed.

Science is centre stage and revealing its guilty secret: yes, science quests for objectivity and the ‘truth’ (whatever that means) but ultimately it is done by people, with all their shortcomings and foibles.

We’ve had hopes raised and dashed by poorly-designed studies and high-profile retractions. Some groups have drummed up interest in their research through press release, while regulators have approved antivirals of dubious value.

Up close it ain’t pretty. Yet, overall, the scientific method has made amazing progress, with some proven treatments and 50 vaccines now in clinical trials.

However, there is one pressing public engagement issue – not a matter of public trust in science, but political trust in the scientific method.
Crystal clear enough

When UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson opened his lockdown 2.0 press conference, he invited his advisors to ‘present the latest data’. Even though our televisions cropped their slides to make them all a bit baffling, what was most striking was not the way their heat maps glowed red but what the models warned was coming next.

As predictions in March had shown, an Academy of Medical Science report in July had documented and models again predicted last month, we were heading for a winter wave. Because science rests on theory as well as data, we could see the latest lockdown coming a mile off.

In modelling, science offers politicians a crystal ball, albeit one that is cracked. The accuracy of a model depends on how well we have captured reality in the form of mathematics, the quality of our data and our assumptions.

Yes, as the old joke goes, all models are wrong but some are useful – certainly useful enough to show the gist of what the pandemic will bring and challenge the headline narratives concocted by spin doctors and columnists.

Yet, even though the fate of the economy is inextricably linked with handling the pandemic well, it no longer suits ministers to ‘follow the science’. Under pressure, they have fallen back on pre-scientific thinking: waiting for a rise in cases, admissions and deaths to become overwhelming before acting.

Perhaps that is understandable. If, for example, a short lockdown had been successful in September, critics would have carped that the low death rate proved the measure had been unnecessary. As the prominent modeller Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London, told me: ‘Proving a counterfactual, what would have happened if you had not acted, is extremely difficult.’
Trust in theory

Theory can be regarded as a mathematical narrative. However, some politicians have simply put their own narrative first, suppressing the data, insights and science that do not support it.

You can see this most vividly in America, where a report documented 47 instances in which government scientists had been side-lined, experts ignored or their recommendations altered. President Donald Trump even threatened to fire Anthony Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease expert.

Politicians don’t need to make lazy sideswipes at ‘those scientists’. Laboratory culture – nullius in verba, take nobody’s word for it – is rigorous enough to get to the right answers under its own steam. We need politicians to place more trust in the way science works.

To achieve that, we need more of them to, like Angela Merkel, have a science background. In this era of lazy hype about big data and AI, scientists also need to place more emphasis on theory, particularly in the medical sciences, where it is relatively lacking. We also need to see more of science correspondents and scientists, less of pundits and lobby correspondents.


The scientific method will be confirmed as one of the most significant achievements of our species

The public need a clearer mental model of the pandemic. Public health messaging has been too prescriptive and rule-bound. Trusting the public with more insights into the nature of the risk, the behaviour of the virus and how to break down networks of transmission would be more likely to encourage behaviours that could end the spread of the virus.

When the nanoparticles have finally settled on this global health emergency, many more will be aware of how science really works. The scientific culture of scepticism, testing and provisional consensus can seem confusing but, in the long term, it will prevail.

In the wake of the pandemic, and with a safe, effective vaccine, the scientific method will be confirmed as one of the most significant achievements of our species: just look at its indisputable impact on everyday life, from the world wide web to the remarkable progress we have made in understanding and treating a disease that, a year ago, was utterly unknown.

Biden Names 13 Health Experts To COVID-19 Transition Advisory Board

By SCOTT NEUMAN • 

Vice Adm. Vivek Murthy, pictured at the Lake Nona Impact Forum in 2017, is a former surgeon general and is one of three co-chairs of President-elect Joe Biden's COVID-19 advisory board.
ALEX MENENDEZ / AP IMAGES FOR LAKE NONA IMPACT FORUM

Originally published on November 9, 2020 10:42 am

President-elect Joe Biden named 13 health experts to his Transition COVID-19 Advisory Board on Monday, advancing his plans despite uncertainty over how much the Trump administration will cooperate amid its ongoing legal challenge to the election results. The coronavirus has spread at alarming rates in the U.S. in recent weeks.

The panel will be co-chaired by three people: former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. David Kessler of the University of California, San Francisco; former Surgeon General Vivek Murthy; and Dr. Marcella Nunez-Smith, an associate professor of medicine and epidemiology at Yale.

"The advisory board will help shape my approach to managing the surge in reported infections; ensuring vaccines are safe, effective, and distributed efficiently, equitably, and free; and protecting at-risk populations," Biden said in a statement issued early Monday morning.

Biden made COVID-19 a central part of his campaign, calling for a stronger and more coordinated federal response to the pandemic even as President Trump downplayed the virus and criticized Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading infectious disease expert. Trump has called Fauci an "idiot" and a "disaster" and suggested that he might fire him after the election.

Nearly 10 million Americans have been diagnosed with the coronavirus, and infections in recent days have set new records, topping 100,000 per day. Nearly 238,000 Americans have died from COVID-19 since January.

"Dealing with the coronavirus pandemic is one of the most important battles our administration will face, and I will be informed by science and by experts," Biden said in the statement.

The advisory board will work to create a plan to bring the pandemic under control — a process Biden says will begin immediately after his Jan. 20 inauguration.

The team includes several people who have served in senior public health positions in the federal government. The roster includes Dr. Rick Bright. Bright was ousted as head of the government's leading-edge research agency, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development, earlier this year after he criticized the federal government's pandemic response.

Also on the advisory board are Luciana Borio, a biodefense and disease specialist who has worked for the National Security Council, and Eric Goosby, who was President Barack Obama's global AIDS coordinator.

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer announced Monday that an experimental vaccine it has been working on has been shown to be 90% effective at preventing COVID-19. Biden, in a statement on Monday separate from the one announcing the advisory board, expressed cautious optimism over the development.

"Americans will have to rely on masking, distancing, contact tracing, hand washing, and other measures to keep themselves safe well into next year," he said. "Today's news is great news, but it doesn't change that fact."

"That is the reality for now, and for the next few months," the president-elect said. "Today's announcement promises the chance to change that next year, but the tasks before us now remain the same."

Although the vaccine still requires FDA approval and faces other regulatory hurdles, Pfizer said it expects to have 50 million doses of the new vaccine by the end of 2020, enough for 25 million people. In 2021, the company expects to produce 1.3 billion doses.

Murthy, a key adviser to the Biden campaign, recently told NPR that a Biden administration would have "a laser focus on ensuring that people get ... adequate testing and clear information."

"We have to function as one nation. That means having a national plan," Murthy, said.

On Friday night, Biden said, "I want everyone — everyone — to know on Day 1, we're going to put our plan to control this virus into action."

In a tweet on Saturday, Bright said: "It's time to heal America. Time to stop the virus."

Copyright 2020 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.

INFRASTRUCTURE BROADBAND

SpaceX Gains Regulatory Approval to Offer Satellite Internet in Canada

Published Date: November 8, 2020


Canadian regulators have approved SpaceX’s application to offer Internet service in Canada. The Innovation, Science and Economic Development department tweeted the announcement on November 6.

SpaceX has already opened the public beta for its constellation of Starlink Internet satellites in some parts of the United States. Beta testers have reported speeds of over 100 Mbps, which is better than the service that is available in some sparsely populated rural areas.

The company has also granted early access to emergency services in Washington State and the Native American Hoh Tribe, and has partnered with a school district in Texas to bring Starlink to low-income students who don’t have reliable access to the Internet.

Despite the new approval, users might not be able to sign up for the beta quite yet. SpaceX is still waiting for approval to install its ground stations within Canada. Some Canadian residents might be able to access Starlink if they are within range of stations in the United States, but that would require them to be in the far south of Canada.

ISED

@ISED_CA

.@SpaceX is joining the effort to help get Canadians connected to high-speed Internet! Regulatory approval for the @SpaceXStarlink low Earth orbit satellite constellation has been granted!

12:07 PM · Nov 6, 2020

1.9K

395 people are Tweeting about this

WHO IN CANADA MIGHT USE STARLINK?

As one might expect, most Canadians live in the southern provinces, with combined figures for Ontario and Quebec historically accounting for about 60% of the population. Estimates show that the provinces of Yukon, Nunavut, and the Northwest Territories each had less than 50,000 people in the third quarter of 2020.

Traditional Internet service providers might have taken one look at the low populations of these provinces and decided that they weren’t worth the investment. Even if Internet service does exist, it is likely to be slow and expensive. Experts have referred to the lack of reliable Internet service in some regions as a “digital divide” that holds back disadvantaged populations who can’t access online educational and employment opportunities. Some less advantaged demographic groups like the Canadian First Nations might especially benefit from improved access to the Internet. This opens the door to a possible opportunity for satellite Internet services like Starlink.

This assumes that SpaceX can make it affordable enough to be attractive to the people living in the northern provinces. The high up-front cost of accessing Starlink’s “Better than Nothing Beta” is likely to be a turnoff for people who don’t have $600 to plunk down for equipment and the first month of access.

On the flip side Elon Musk may soon face some competition from Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, a longtime rival who also owns the rocket company Blue Origin. Amazon plans to launch its own satellite Internet service called “Project Kuiper,” which employs former SpaceX executives who once worked on Starlink. If successful, competitors like Project Kuiper could force SpaceX to bring prices down.

Until that happens, adoption of Starlink’s Internet service might be slow in regions with low average household income despite SpaceX’s insistence that satellite Internet can help less advantaged populations.


Even so, Canada’s regulatory approval will be seen as a step in the right direction for Canadians who have occasionally expressed impatience with how slow the government bureaucracy has been in granting it.
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