The number of people suffering from flu has plunged to levels not seen in more than 130 years

One expert has said that flu had been 'almost wiped out'

By Cathy Owen Breaking News Editor
 31 JAN 2021

Flu cases are down by 95% (Image: Getty Images)

While coronavirus infection rates remain high, flu has been "almost wiped out" with cases plunging by 95% to levels not seen in more than 130 years.

The peak of the season is usually the second week of January, but official data for that time shows that the number of flu-like cases reported to doctors was 1.1 per 100,000 people, compared to a five-year average rate of 27.

In Wales, the latest figures show that that figure in Wales for the week ending January 24 was 0.8 per 100,000.

(Image: Public Health Wales)

Simon de Lusignan, professor of primary care at the University of Oxford and director of the Royal College of GPs research and surveillance centre, which focuses on flu told The Sunday Times that flu had “almost completely wiped out."

He added: "I cannot think of a year this has happened."

John McCauley, director of the World Health Organisation's collaborating centre for reference and research on influenza and one of the world's leading flu experts, told the paper: "The last time we had evidence of such low rates was when we were still just counting influenza deaths, and that was in 1888, before the 1889- 90 flu pandemic."

Flu is virtually non-existent in Wales so far this winter

It is thought the health measures taken to combat Covid-19 like social distancing and hand washing are likely to be the main reason for the dramatic fall in cases.

A similar trend was seen in the southern hemisphere last year with very few cases of seasonal flu in Australia, Chile and South Africa there between April and July 2020.

A Public Health Wales spokesman has said social distancing, better hand hygiene and masks to contain the spread of Covid-19 were having an impact on flu rates.

Former QAnon Follower To Anderson Cooper: ‘I Apologize For Thinking That You Ate Babies’

MIKE COPPOLA / GETTY IMAGES NEWS

Damir Mujezinovic INQ UISITER

CNN anchor Anderson Cooper recently interviewed Jitarth Jadeja, a former QAnon supporter, who earnestly believed in some of the most absurd conspiracy theories peddled by the mysterious Q.

As HuffPost reported, according to a clip of the interview that was released on Saturday, Jadeja apologized to Cooper for once thinking he “ate babies.”

“Did you, at the time, believe that Democrats, high-level Democrats and celebrities were worshipping Satan, drinking the blood of children?” Cooper asked.

“Anderson, I thought you did that. And I would like to apologize for that right now. So, I apologize for thinking that you ate babies.”

Cooper was taken aback by Jadeja’s apology and asked him to confirm that he really thought prominent political and media figures ate small children.

“Yes, I did,” Jadeja replied, noting that many QAnon followers believe that, though some actually think Cooper is a robot.

Jadeja explained that he once believed QAnon was part of “military intelligence” and stressed that he also thought that aliens were involved in the QAnon movement and supporting the mysterious individual.

The man said that he believed that “the people behind him were actually a group of fifth dimensional intra-dimensional extra terrestrial bipedal bird aliens called blue alien.”

“I was so far down in this conspiracy black hole that I was essentially picking and choosing whatever narrative that I wanted to believe in,” Jadeja added.

Jadeja, who lives in Sydney, Australia, abandoned the QAnon movement in 2019. He claims to have been deradicalized by YouTube videos that debunked the very premise of the bizarre conspiracy theory.

Dozens of different theories fall under the umbrella of QAnon, but most of the claims are centered around the suggestion that former President Donald Trump and his allies are secretly fighting a global cabal of Satan-worshiping child traffickers.

Donald Trump’s ‘Criminal Ineptitude And Apathy’ Doomed COVID-19 Vaccination Efforts, Report Says

AARON P. BERNSTEIN / GETTY IMAGES US POLITICS

Nathan Francis INQUISITER

January 30, 2021

Donald Trump doomed the efforts to roll out the COVID-19 vaccines through his own “criminal ineptitude and apathy,” a new report claims.

Writing for DC Report, Jillian S. Ambroz noted that Trump had no plan for the distribution of the vaccines once they were ready to roll out at the end of 2020. She noted that even though Trump’s own White House had seen a number of outbreaks, he had done nothing to prepare for them to be distributed, which could likely lead to more unnecessary deaths.

Instead, his failure to properly prepare dumped the mess on his successor, Ambroz added.

“Trump’s criminal ineptitude and apathy crushed the vaccination effort before it could get off the ground, presenting President Joe Biden’s administration with a monumental disaster,” she wrote.

Others have called out Trump for his lack of planning on how to distribute the COVID-19 vaccine. As The Guardian reported, Biden’s team spent the first week having to manually track down close to 20 million doses of the vaccine that went through the federal distribution pipeline to be administered at clinic sites. As the report noted, Trump’s administration had failed to track how these moved through the pipeline between distribution and when the shot was administered to patients.

Those involved in the rollout said it left a confusing situation for the new team.

Biden team scrambles to find 20m vaccine doses Trump reportedly failed to track

Officials work to pinpoint doses in pipeline between federal distribution and administration by states

People wait in line to receive a vaccine at a high school in Paterson, New Jersey. The Trump administration did not track vaccines between federal distribution and administration to patients, Biden officials told Politico. Photograph: Ted Shaffrey/AP

Jessica Glenza
THE GUARDIAN
Sat 30 Jan 2021 


The Biden administration has spent its first week in office attempting to manually track down 20m vaccine doses in the pipeline between federal distribution and administration at clinic sites, when a dose finally reaches a patient’s arm.

The Trump administration’s strategy pushed the response to the coronavirus pandemic to individual states and omitted pipeline tracking information between distribution and when the shot is actually administered, Biden administration officials told Politico.

The lack of data has now forced federal health department officials to spend hours on the phone tracking down vaccine shipments, the news website reported.

“Nobody had a complete picture,” Dr Julie Morita, a member of the Biden transition team and executive vice-president of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, told Politico. “The plans that were being made were being made with the assumption that more information would be available and be revealed once they got into the White House.”

As of Saturday, 49 million doses of vaccine have been distributed by the federal government, but only 27 million administered by states, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

About two million of those doses are believed to be accounted for by a 72-hour lag in reported administration, Politico reported. That still leaves millions in the pipeline between delivery and patient. At least 16 states have used less than half the vaccine doses distributed to them, USA Today reported this week.


Revealed: study exposes racial disparity as whites vaccinated at higher rates than Black Americans
Read more

“Much of our work over the next week is going to make sure that we can tighten up the timelines to understand where in the pipeline the vaccine actually is and when exactly it is administered,” Dr Rochelle Walensky, director of the CDC, told USA Today.
Advertisement

Among the problems in the rollout identified by the CDC’s advisory committee on immunization practices are the need to improve scheduling, increase staffing and define administration site workflows. States must also improve supply-demand mismatch.

In one example, a hospital in Arlington, Virginia, had to cancel 10,000 appointments after the state sent doses to county health departments. The state then directed patients to reschedule appointments through the county health department as they became available.

“It’s very disappointing,” Jeff Gorsky, a resident whose 3 February appointment was canceled, told NBC4 Washington. “We’re all stuck in the house, I rarely leave my house now, just to go grocery shopping. It would have freed me up.”

Similarly in Wisconsin, lawmakers quizzed the state’s health department on where 180,000 federally distributed vaccines that had yet to be administered were in the pipeline, according to a report from the right-leaning MacIver Institute.

A state health department official told lawmakers there was not enough vaccine to meet demand, but also that 50% of the doses had been set aside for a pharmacy partnership to vaccinate staff and residents of long-term care homes.

But adding to the confusion, a spokesperson for the Pharmacy Society of Wisconsin later said pharmacies had not received the doses from the health department, and still others were set aside for second shots despite federal guidance not to do so. “Some of [the vaccine] was being held back for second doses,” said Danielle Womack, a spokesperson for the Pharmacy Society of Wisconsin, the MacIver Institute reported. Wisconsin does not expect a vaccination scheduling website to go live until February, Wisconsin Public Radio reported.

If the Biden administration can’t get a handle on the rollout, inequities could also exacerbate racial health disparities between the populations worst impacted by Covid-19 and already behind in immunization.

An early look at the 17 states and two cities that have released racial breakdowns through 25 January found black people in all places are getting inoculated at levels below their share of the general population, in some cases significantly below.

“We’re going to see a widening and exacerbation of the racial health inequities that were here before the pandemic and worsened during the pandemic if our communities cannot access the vaccine,” said Dr Uché Blackstock, a New York emergency physician and CEO of Advancing Health Equity, an advocacy group that addresses bias and inequality.

That is true even though they constitute an oversize percentage of the nation’s health care workers, who were put at the front of the line for shots when the campaign began in mid-December.

For example, in North Carolina, black people make up 22% of the population and 26% of the health care workforce but only 11% of the vaccine recipients so far. White people, a category in which the state includes both Hispanic and non-Hispanic whites, are 68% of the population and 82% of those vaccinated.

The racial immunization gap is partly explained by higher levels of distrust of medical personnel by racial minorities who for centuries have been subject to abusive and discriminatory medical practices.

However, it is also a practical matter. In Florida, a plan to distribute Covid-19 vaccines through pharmacies with the supermarket chain Publix – which have been shown to cluster in affluent communities – left residents of Belle Glade 25 miles from the nearest vaccine center.

Most residents of the predominantly black community “walk everywhere they go”, said Mayor Steve Wilson. The state later provided a vaccine site for the community.

The CDC’s first report on early vaccine rollout is expected in February.

The Associated Press contributed to this report

Trump’s Death Penalty Zeal May Pave the Way for Its Demise

LOSING GROUND

Death penalty support is wide rather than deep, even among conservatives in deep red states.

Maurice Chammah DAILY BEAST
Published Jan. 31, 2021 

Mike Simons/Getty

Earlier this month, Rep. Ayanna Presley and Sen. Dick Durbin announced a bill to end the federal death penalty. With Democrats in control of Congress and the White House, it’s possible to see the path to passage, as well as a historical irony: President Donald Trump oversaw ore executions than any president in decades, and in doing so he galvanized the left, allowing opponents of the death penalty to link each of these executions to systemic problems, from the all-white jury that sentenced Orlando Hall to the history of trauma and mental illness that marked the life of Lisa Montgomery. In the end, Trump’s zeal for the death penalty may end up paving the way for its demise.

President Joe Biden has promised to eliminate the death penalty, and even without Congress, he can commute the sentences of the 50 people still on federal death row. His attorney general, Merrick Garland, can bar federal prosecutors from seeking new death sentences. The two can order Bureau of Prison employees to dismantle the federal execution chamber in Terre Haute, Indiana, and cart the lethal injection gurney off in a truck. The death penalty has never been given to more than a minuscule fraction of the thousands of people who commit murder each year, but it’s the ideological pinnacle of a punitive criminal justice system, rendering very long sentences lenient by comparison. So the political symbolism of a dismantled death chamber would be potent.

Supreme Court Won’t Kill Death Penalty
IMMORTAL
Mike Sacks


So would the backlash, especially since those on death row include such public villains as Dylann Roof and Dzhokar Tsarnaev. A majority of Americans still support the punishment, and framing the end of the death penalty as a partisan overthrow of Trump’s legacy invites further reversals; a future administration or Congress could, both literally and figuratively, just put the gurney back in the room. And none of this would have an effect on state prisons, where the vast majority of death sentences are carried out. Already, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, and Ohio have scheduled executions for later this year.

Under Trump, the death penalty appeared to be a partisan wedge issue, but the punishment has been declining in popularity for the last quarter century, in both red and blue states. To understand the choices that politicians on both sides of the issue will face this year, it’s worth revisiting how we got here.

In 1966, death penalty support dropped to 42 percent. At the time, executions seemed like a relic. Electric chairs were gathering dust in storage. Then, in 1972, the Supreme Court ruled that every death penalty law in the country was unconstitutional. Crime was on the rise and Americans believed that unelected judges had robbed them of their ability to fight crime. The film Dirty Harry embodied the era, portraying a police officer hamstrung by case law as he attempted to capture a killer.

By 1994, public support had reached 80 percent, and by the end of the millennium, state prisons were executing more than one person each week. Democrats had more to prove. Around this time, then-Gov. Bill Clinton left the presidential campaign to preside over an execution in Arkansas—of a man who was missing part of his brain, by the way—while then-Senator Joe Biden touted a bill in which “we do everything but hang people for jaywalking.”

The political ground began to shift in 1998, when Karla Faye Tucker was executed in Texas. Having left a pickax in the chest of one of her victims, she had undergone dramatic and, by all accounts, sincere conversion to Christianity while on death row. Gov. George W. Bush did not stop her execution, but he was open about his ambivalence as a fellow born-again Christian. Her death illustrated the conflict between ideals of retribution and redemption.

Around this time, the rise of DNA made it possible to prove that some people on death row were innocent, and newspapers showed images of men and women tearfully reuniting with their families on the courthouse steps. Conservative columnist George Will wrote in 2000 that the death penalty “is a government program, so skepticism is in order.” That year, Republican and Democratic legislators teamed up in Texas to increase funding for public defenders and improve access to DNA testing. Sen. John Cornyn was the state’s attorney general at the time, and he publicly acknowledged that racial bias had infected several death row cases, paving the way for a handful of new sentencing hearings.


“Democrats can attempt a big, quick win, or they can try to bring the trend of conservative opposition from statehouses up to Congress,”

On top of all this, prosecutors—especially in conservative, rural areas—began to acknowledge just how expensive it had become to send someone to death row and framed their turn away from the death penalty in fiscal rather than moral terms.

None of this was enough to seriously crack Texas’ particular cultural attachment to executions, but over time similar arguments about cost, redemption, and mistakes featured prominently in the conversion narratives of conservatives and liberals alike across the country. Republican legislators have recently pushed to repeal the punishment in Utah, Kentucky, Colorado, and Montana, while the Republican governor of Ohio, Mike DeWine, has expressed misgivings. So have more populist conservative thought-leaders like Tucker Carlson, Michelle Malkin, Jay Sekulow, and Richard Viguerie. Death penalty support is wide rather than deep; in 2019, 56 percent of Americans said they favored the death penalty when asked about it in isolation, but 60 percent said they preferred life imprisonment.

Scholars have suggested ways that Biden might promote a bipartisan consensus. Harvard law professor Carol Steiker recently told me the president could create a blue-ribbon commission to study the death penalty, which would ultimately “offer practical grounds to limit or abolish it to those who do not oppose it on principle.” (Obama promised a similar study but never delivered.) Robert Dunham, executive director of the Death Penalty Information Center, suggested that the Biden administration prioritize funding for the defense of military veterans facing the death penalty in state courts, since their crimes can often be traced to PTSD and head injuries from their service. It’s easy to imagine how this might further erode death penalty support on the right.

Democrats will now face a political choice. They can attempt a big, quick win, or they can try to bring the trend of conservative opposition from statehouses up to Congress, setting off a deeper conversation about mercy and rehabilitation that might apply to the broader criminal justice system. The seeds of a reckoning are here; it was Donald Trump who, after signing a bipartisan measure to reduce the federal prison population, announced, “America is a nation that believes in redemption.”

RIP

The Animals guitarist and founding member Hilton Valentine dies aged 77

By Michael Astley-Brown GUITAR WORLD

Valentine arranged and performed the iconic intro to The House of the Rising Sun

(Image credit: Stanley Bielecki/ASP/Getty Images)

Hilton Valentine, founding member of The Animals and guitarist on one of the most iconic intros in music history, has died aged 77

His death was confirmed by the band’s label ABKCO in a statement posted to Twitter on Saturday night: “Our deepest sympathies go out to Hilton Valentine’s family and friends on his passing this morning, at the age of 77.”

“A founding member and original guitarist of the Animals, Valentine was a pioneering guitar player influencing the sound of rock and roll for decades to come.”

Born in North Shields, UK, Valentine founded the Animals in Newcastle in 1963, alongside singer Eric Burdon, bassist Chas Chandler, organist Alan Price and drummer John Steel.

One year later, the group landed their biggest hit, a cover of blues standard The House of the Rising Sun, opened by Valentine’s arpeggiated guitar riff – it went on to become one of the most iconic intros in music history and essential learning for every guitarist who followed.

“I was coming up with my arpeggio bit and Alan Price said to me, ‘Can you play something different because that is so corny?’” Valentine – who played a Gretsch Tennessean through a Selmer Selectortone on the track – told Guitar International in 2010.

“So I told him, ‘You play your damn keyboard and I’ll play me guitar!’ Then, after a few rehearsals, he started playing my riff and we recorded it.”

The band followed The House of the Rising Sun with a number of hits, including reworkings of blues classics Don’t Let Me Be Misunderstood and We Gotta Get Out Of This Place, before the group disbanded a few years later.

Valentine moved to the US shortly after, recording a solo album, All in Your Head, in 1969. But it wasn’t until he reconnected with his love of skiffle that a follow-up was released in 2004, It’s Folk ‘N’ Skiffle, Mate!. Two other skiffle releases followed in 2011 and 2012.

In 1994, Valentine and his fellow Animals Eric Burdon, Chas Chandler, Alan Price and John Steel were inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame.

Of their legacy, Valentine told Guitar International, “I do think that we were among those responsible for turning on white America to the blues music that was already right in their own backyard, they just didn’t know it.”

A cause of death has yet to be announced.

 

North America

Donald Trump's donor reportedly funded Capitol riot rally

A pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol, breaking 

windows and clashing with police officers. Source: Getty Images

The Wall Street Journal has identified a prominent Donald Trump campaign donor as having helped fund the rally preceding the storming of the US Capitol.

An heiress to supermarket chain Publix reportedly donated about $US300,000 ($A390,000) to fund a rally that preceded the deadly storming of the US Capitol by supporters of former US president Donald Trump.

The Wall Street Journal said on Saturday the funding from Julie Jenkins Fancelli, a prominent donor to Mr Trump's 2020 campaign, was facilitated by far-right show host Alex Jones.

It said her money paid for the lion's share of the roughly $US500,000 rally at the Ellipse park where Mr Trump spoke and urged supporters to "to fight".

More than 135 people have been arrested in connection with the 6 January attack on the Capitol as Congress met to certify Democrat Joe Biden's victory in the November election.

Five people including a Capitol Police officer died.

READ MORE

'Donald Trump just used us and our fear':

 One woman's journey out of QAnon


According to the Journal, Mr Jones personally pledged more than $US50,000 ($A65,000) in seed money for the rally in exchange for a speaking slot of his choice.

Mr Jones, who has publicised discredited conspiracy theories, has hosted leaders of the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, two extremist groups prominent at the riot, on his popular radio and internet video shows, it said.

Mr Jones did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Ms Fancelli could not immediately be reached.

Meanwhile, Publix Super Markets said in a Twitter post the violence at the Capitol on 6 January was a national tragedy.

"The deplorable actions that occurred that day do not represent the values, work or opinions of Publix Super Markets.

"Mrs Fancelli is not an employee of Publix Super Markets and is neither involved in our business operations, nor does she represent the company in any way. We cannot comment on Mrs. Fancelli's actions."

Hurricanes and typhoons moving 30km closer to coasts every decade

IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON

Research News

 

High-intensity tropical cyclones have been moving closer to coasts over the past 40 years, potentially causing more destruction than before.

The trend of tropical cyclones - commonly known as hurricanes or typhoons - increasingly moving towards coasts over the past 40 years appears to be driven by a westward shift in their tracks, say the study's authors from Imperial College London.

While the underlying mechanisms are not clear, the team say it could be connected to changes in tropical atmospheric patterns possibly caused by climate change. The research is published today in Science.

Globally, 80 to 100 cyclones develop over tropical oceans each year, impacting regions in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans and causing billions of dollars of damage.

Lead author Dr Shuai Wang, from the Department of Physics at Imperial, said: "Tropical cyclones are some of the most devastating natural hazards in terms of how destructive and frequent they are in coastal regions.

"Our study shows they are likely becoming more destructive as they spend more time along coastlines at their highest intensities. The risk to some coastal communities around the world may be increasing and that will have profound implications over the coming decades."

The team analysed global data from 1982-2018 on tropical cyclone formation, movement and intensity mainly gathered from satellite observations. They found that at maximum intensity, cyclones were on average getting 30km closer to coastlines per decade. There were also on average two more cyclones per decade within 200km of land.

These increases did not necessarily mean more cyclones made landfall (reached land). However, the 'near-misses' or 'indirect-hit' cyclones near coasts can still cause damage, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and Hurricane Dorian in 2019, both of which skirted along the US coast for a considerable time before making landfall.

The paper's other author, Professor Ralf Toumi from the Department of Physics and Co-Director of the Grantham Institute - Climate Change and Environment at Imperial, said: "We need to understand all aspects of tropical cyclones and this new study shows how their locations are changing. This often gets less attention than changes in their intensity but is at least as important."

Previously, studies have shown that the maximum intensity of tropical cyclones is found further towards the poles. However, this does not necessarily mean these more poleward storms are more devastating. The new findings show cyclones at maximum intensity are also migrating westward, bringing them closer to coastlines and increasing their potential for damage.

The westward migration appears to be driven by anomalous 'steering' - the underlying flow in the atmosphere that carries cyclones along their tracks. The exact mechanism for this enhanced westward steering is unknown, but it may be due to the same underlying mechanism for poleward migration of cyclones as rising temperatures cause atmospheric patterns to shift.

The team will next use climate simulations to determine the underlying mechanism behind these historical shifts and project potential future shifts in tropical cyclone tracks towards global coastal regions.

###

Methane emissions from coal mines are higher than previously thought

More of the powerful greenhouse gas is coming from deeper and abandoned mines

DOE/PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY

Research News

 

COLLEGE PARK, Md.--The amount of methane released into the atmosphere as a result of coal mining is likely much higher than previously calculated, according to research presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union recently.

The study estimates that methane emissions from coal mines are approximately 50 percent higher than previously estimated. The research was done by a team at the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and others.

The higher estimate is due mainly to two factors: methane that continues to be emitted from thousands of abandoned mines and the higher methane content in coal seams that are ever deeper, according to chief author Nazar Kholod of PNNL.

The results have important implications for Earth's climate because methane is about 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide when it comes to warming the planet over a long period. In addition to coal mining, other major sources of methane emissions globally include wetlands, agriculture, and oil and gas facilities.

The study is one of the first to account for methane leaking from old, abandoned mines. Kholod said that when a closed mine is flooded, water stops methane from leaking almost completely within about seven years. But when an abandoned mine is closed without flooding, as many are, methane leaks into the air for decades.

Methane emissions are a constant concern at coal mines, which vent the gas as it's emitted when coal seams are disturbed. While methane produced in some industries is captured and used to create additional energy, it's more difficult to capture from coal mines, where the gas typically makes up a tiny fraction of the overall air stream.

Globally, coal mining is decreasing in the United States and Europe but increasing rapidly in other parts of the world, such as southeast Asia and India. The authors point out that less coal production doesn't translate to less methane.

"As more coal mines close, the share of coal mines that have been abandoned but are still emitting methane will increase," said Kholod. He is a scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute, a partnership between PNNL and the University of Maryland where researchers explore the interactions between human, energy and environmental systems.

More methane from deeper and defunct mines

The research team analyzed 250 coal samples from around the world, including North America, South America, Australia, Asia and Europe. The team found that coal from depths greater than 400 meters--depths many new mines reach--contains more than twice as much methane as coal mined at depths less than 200 meters. Mines are getting deeper every year.

The study is the first to attempt to account for methane escaping from abandoned mines. The reason is straightforward, Kholod said: Good data sets are hard to come by. His paper drew largely on data from the United States and Ukraine, countries where data about coal mine status and methane is fully available. In the United States in 2015, about one-third of abandoned mines were flooded. Ukraine reported that all its mines abandoned that year were flooded.

The team estimated that in 2010, 103 billion cubic meters of methane were released from working underground and surface mines and an additional 22 billion cubic meters from abandoned mines. That total of 125 billion cubic meters for 2010 is 50 percent higher than the estimate of 83 billion cubic meters for that year by the Community Emissions Data System, a highly regarded system developed by PNNL researchers and collaborators used for analyzing historical emissions data.

While the results are based on actual measurements from coal mines around the world, the scientists suggest further studies that take into account more such measurements from coal mines, including abandoned mines, would be helpful.

The future: More methane emissions from mines very likely

The study analyzed future methane emissions from coal mines under a range of scenarios. If efforts to address climate change remain similar to what they have been, the researchers estimate that methane emissions as a result of coal mining will increase dramatically by the end of the century: Nearly eight times what they are today from abandoned mines and four times what they are from working mines.

But Nazar notes that there is uncertainty about future coal production. If coal production decreases, then emissions from working mines would decrease.

However, in all scenarios, methane emissions from abandoned mines are expected to grow more quickly than those from established mines. The team cites deeper mines, more abandoned mines, and a greater percentage of surface mines from which methane escapes more freely as reasons why.

Those increases are significantly higher than what current climate models call for--for instance, 83 percent higher in 2050 than suggested by the widely used Global Change Analysis Model developed by PNNL.

The study estimates that if strong climate mitigation strategies are put in place, then by the end of this century the amount of methane escaping from abandoned mines would be about the same as 2020. Under the same conditions, the amount of methane escaping from working mines would be cut in half.

"If you stop producing coal, that doesn't mean that methane will stop being emitted from coal mines," said Kholod. "We can't just take coal out of the equation."

###

JGCRI scientist Meredydd Evans is also an author of the paper. Other authors include Raymond Pilcher of Raven Ridge Resources of Grand Junction, Colo.; Volha Roshchanka and Felicia Ruiz of the EPA; and Michael Coté and Ron Collings of Ruby Canyon Engineering of Grand Junction, Colo.

The research was funded by the EPA and the Global Methane Initiative.

Arctic warming and diminishing sea ice are influencing the atmosphere

Researchers of the University of Helsinki have resolved for the first time, how the environment affects the formation of nanoparticles in the Arctic. The results give additional insight into the future of melting sea ice and the Arctic atmosphere

UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI

Research News

 

IMAGE: MEASUREMENTS IN NORTHERN GREENLAND view more 

CREDIT: NINA SARNELA

The researchers of the Institute for Atmospheric and Earth system research at the University of Helsinki have investigated how atmospheric particles are formed in the Arctic. Until recent studies, the molecular processes of particle formation in the high Arctic remained a mystery.

During their expeditions to the Arctic, the scientists collected measurements for 12 months in total. The results of the extensive research project were recently published in the Geophysical Research Letters journal.

The researchers discovered that atmospheric vapors, particles, and cloud formation have clear differences within various Arctic environments. The study clarifies how Arctic warming and sea ice loss strengthens processes where different vapors are emitted to the atmosphere. The thinning of sea ice enables more iodine emissions while broader open waters enable more emissions of sulfur-containing vapors.

Higher concentrations of vapors result in a higher amount of particles. This on the other hand will lead to more clouds, which can - depending on the season and location - either slow down or accelerate the Arctic warming. Detailed knowledge of these processes is crucial in order to understand the consequences of global warming.

"Our observations are contributing to further understanding of what happens in the Arctic atmosphere due to warming. In general, atmospheric particles and clouds play an important role in regulating the atmosphere's temperature, and any changing behavior of these has consequences on Arctic warming. Arctic areas are especially sensitive to changes in cloudiness and albedo", says Lisa Beck, a doctoral student at the Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR).

More in­for­ma­tion about the fu­ture of melt­ing sea ice

The researchers conducted measurements in Northern Greenland at Villum research station and in Svalbard at Ny-Ålesund for 6-months at each station. While both sites are located at similar latitudes, about 1000 km south of the North Pole, their environments are very different. Villum-station is surrounded by sea ice all year round, while the warm sea currents cause the sea around Ny-Ålesund to remain open.

In Northern Greenland the researchers discovered that in the spring after the Polar night the microalgae below the sea ice started to emit iodine compounds to the atmosphere. As the spring continues, the thinning sea ice leads to the emission of even more iodine compounds. These compounds form molecular clusters that can grow into bigger particles.

In Svalbard, surrounded by open waters, the observations showed how sulfur-compounds emitted by phytoplankton could form a large amount of particles that could grow fast, and can even form cloud droplets. In the studies of Svalbard also organic compounds were detected.

The large amount and role of organic compounds in the Arctic particle formation surprised the researchers.

"We did not expect to observe many organic vapors in the cold and bare Arctic environment as they have been mainly seen in areas covered by forests. We are planning to continue the studies in Svalbard to figure out what these organic compounds are and where they are coming from", Beck says.

The particle concentrations in Svalbard were clearly higher than the ones measured in Northern-Greenland.

"Currently, the Arctic sea ice is melting fast. As a result, we can assume that the processes observed in Svalbard will be more common in the Arctic areas that will be liberated from sea ice", Beck says.

###

The published research is connected to the recent Polarstern studies that have continued the studies in the high Arctic in the middle of sea ice areas.

More information:

Lisa Beck
Doctoral student, University of Helsinki
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)
lisa.beck@helsinki.fi

Nina Sarnela
Postdoctoral researcher, University of Helsinki
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)
+358505741513,
nina.sarnela@helsinki.fi
@NinaSarnela

Mikko Sipilä
Associate professor, University of Helsinki
Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)
+358407093103
mikko.sipila@helsinki.fi

Read more: The Polar and arctic atmospheric research group

Local emissions amplify regional haze and particle growth

INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Research News

 

IMAGE: A SCHEMATIC PLOT TO SHOW ENHANCED PARTICLE GROWTH BY LOCAL PRIMARY EMISSIONS CONTRIBUTE TO MORE SEVERE HAZE AT GROUND LEVEL. view more 

CREDIT: YELE SUN

New particle formation (NPF) is a major source of aerosol particles in the global atmosphere. In polluted megacities, such as Beijing, the role of new particle formation events and their contribution to haze formation through subsequent growth is still unclear.

To improve the understanding of the sources, meteorological conditions, and chemistry behind air pollution, the research teams led by Prof. Yele Sun with the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Prof. Markku Kulmala with the University of Helsinki performed simultaneous measurements of aerosol composition and particle number size distributions at ground level and at 260 m in central Beijing, China, during a total of 4 months in 2015-2017. Their study was recently published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.

"The haze formation is initiated by the growth of freshly formed particles at both ground level and city aloft. However, the haze was more severe at ground level because of higher particle growth rates due to the impacts of local primary particles and gaseous precursors." said Prof. Sun.

According to Prof. Sun, the particle growth creates a feedback loop, in which a further development of haze increases the atmospheric stability. It in turn strengthens the persisting apparent decoupling between the two heights and increases the severity of haze at ground level.

The team further complemented the field observations with NAQPMS+APM model analyses, and found that the haze associated with NPF and growth was formed on a regional scale in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area. Prof. Sun said, "The growth of NPF-originated particles accounts for up to ?60% of the accumulation mode particles, and drives the haze formation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area."

The team also performed simulations on how emission reductions would affect haze development. "Concentration of both primary and secondary particles in the accumulation mode would decrease drastically, and the haze formation would be reduced if the emission cuts are higher than 30%." Concluded Prof. Sun. "Our results show that a reduction in anthropogenic gaseous precursors can suppress particle growth, and therefore is a critical step for haze alleviation."

Human activity caused the long-term growth of greenhouse gas methane

Emissions from the oil and gas sectors, coal mining and ruminant farming drive methane growth over the past three decades

NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Research News

 

IMAGE: EVOLUTION OF THE OBSERVED AND SIMULATED CONCENTRATIONS (TOP) AND GROWTH RATES (BOTTOM) IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE (SH) DURING 1988-2016. MEASUREMENT DATA FROM FOUR REMOTE MARINE STATIONS IN THE SH (NAMELY,... view more 

CREDIT: NIES

Methane (CH4) is the second most important greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide (CO2). Its concentration in the atmosphere has increased more than twice since the preindustrial era due to enhanced emissions from human activities. While the global warming potential of CH4 is 86 times as large as that of CO2 over 20 years, it stays in the atmosphere for about 10 years, much shorter than more than centuries of CO2. It is therefore expected that emission controlling of CH4 can benefit for relatively short time period toward the Paris Agreement target to limit the global warming well below 2 degrees.

A study by an international team, published in Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, provides a robust set of explanations about the processes and emission sectors that led to the hitherto unexplained behaviors of CH4 in the atmosphere. The growth rate (annual increase) of CH4 in the atmosphere varied dramatically over the past 30 years with three distinct phases, namely, the slowed (1988-1998), quasi-stationary (1999-2006) and renewed (2007-2016) growth periods (Fig. 1). No scientific consensus is however reached on the causes of such CH4 growth rate variability. The team, led by Naveen Chandra of National Institute for Environmental Studies, combined analyses of emission inventories, inverse modeling with an atmospheric chemistry-transport model, the global surface/aircraft/satellite observations to address the important problem.

They show that reductions in emissions from Europe and Russia since 1988, particularly from oil-gas exploitation and enteric fermentation, led to the slowed CH4 growth rates in the 1990s (Fig. 2), where reduced emissions from natural wetlands due the effects of Mount Pinatubo eruption and frequent El Niño also played roles. This period was followed by the quasi-stationary state of CH4 growth in the early 2000s. CH4 resumed growth from 2007, which were attributed to increases in emissions from coal mining mainly in China and intensification of livestock (ruminant) farming and waste management in Tropical South America, North-central Africa, South and Southeast Asia. While the emission increase from coal mining in China has stalled in the post-2010 period, the emissions from oil and gas sector from North America has increased (Fig. 2). There is no evidence of emission enhancement due to climate warming, including the boreal regions, during our analysis period.

These findings highlight key sectors (energy, livestock and waste) for effective emission reduction strategies toward climate change mitigation. Tracking the location and source type is critically important for developing mitigation strategies and the implementation the Paris Agreement. The study also underlines need of more atmospheric observations with space and time density higher than the present.

CAPTION

Timeseries (1988-2016) of regional CH4 emission anomalies as derived from the inverse analysis, and the emission changes from 3 aggregated sectors during the three distinct phases of the growth rate (bar plots). The figure shows the emission anomalies from the long-term (2000-2016) mean for each region. The numbers in each panel are the long-term mean of the a posteriori emissions (in Tg yr-1).

UArizona researchers develop smartphone-based COVID-19 test

The method analyzes saliva samples and delivers results in about 10 minutes

UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING

Research News

 

IMAGE: UARIZONA RESEARCHERS IMAGE A SAMPLE USING A SMARTPHONE MICROSCOPE. view more 

CREDIT: UARIZONA BIOSENSORS LAB

Researchers at the University of Arizona are developing a COVID-19 testing method that uses a smartphone microscope to analyze saliva samples and deliver results in about 10 minutes.

The UArizona research team, led by biomedical engineering professor Jeong-Yeol Yoon, aims to combine the speed of existing nasal swab antigen tests with the high accuracy of nasal swab PCR, or polymerase chain reaction, tests. The researchers are adapting an inexpensive method that they originally created to detect norovirus - the microbe famous for spreading on cruise ships - using a smartphone microscope.

They plan to use the method in conjunction with a saline swish-gargle test developed by Michael Worobey, head of the UArizona Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and associate director of the University of Arizona BIO5 Institute.

The team's latest research using water samples - done in collaboration with Kelly A. Reynolds, chair of the Department of Community, Environment and Policy in the UArizona Mel and Enid Zuckerman College of Public Health - is published today in Nature Protocols.

"We've outlined it so that other scientists can basically repeat what we did and create a norovirus-detecting device," said Lane Breshears, a biomedical engineering doctoral student in Yoon's lab. "Our goal is that if you want to adapt it for something else, like we've adapted it for COVID-19, that you have all the ingredients you need to basically make your own device."

Yoon - a BIO5 Institute member who is also a professor of biosystems engineering, animal and comparative biomedical sciences, and chemistry and biochemistry - is working with a large group of undergraduate and graduate students to develop the smartphone-based COVID-19 detection method.

"I have a couple of friends who had COVID-19 that were super frustrated, because their PCR results were taking six or seven days or they were getting false negatives from rapid antigen tests. But when they got the final PCR tests, they found out they had been sick, like they'd suspected," said Katie Sosnowski, a biomedical engineering doctoral student who works in Yoon's lab. "It's really cool to be working on a detection platform that can get fast results that are also accurate."

CAPTION

Biomedical engineering professor Jeong-Yeol Yoon and his team show University of Arizona President Robert C. Robbins and Provost Liesl Folks around the Biosensors Lab.

CREDIT

Chris Richards / University of Arizona

Cheaper, Simpler Detection

Traditional methods for detection of norovirus or other pathogens are often expensive, involve a large suite of laboratory equipment or require scientific expertise. The smartphone-based norovirus test developed at UArizona consists of a smartphone, a simple microscope and a piece of microfluidic paper - a wax-coated paper that guides the liquid sample to flow through specific channels. It is smaller and cheaper than other tests, with the components costing about $45.

The basis of the technology, described in a 2019 paper published in the journal ACS Omega, is relatively simple. Users introduce antibodies with fluorescent beads to a potentially contaminated water sample. If enough particles of the pathogen are present in the sample, several antibodies attach to each pathogen particle. Under a microscope, the pathogen particles show up as little clumps of fluorescent beads, which the user can then count. The process - adding beads to the sample, soaking a piece of paper in the sample, then taking a smartphone photograph of it under a microscope and counting the beads - takes about 10 to 15 minutes. It's so simple that Yoon says a nonscientist could learn how to do it by watching a brief video.

The version of the technology described in the Nature Protocols paper makes further improvements, such as creating a 3D-printed housing for the microscope attachment and microfluidic paper chip. The paper also introduces a method called adaptive thresholding. Previously, researchers set a fixed value for what quantity of pathogen constituted a danger, which limited precision levels. The new version uses artificial intelligence to set the danger threshold and account for environmental differences, such as the type of smartphone and the quality of the paper.

On-Campus Impact

The researchers plan to partner with testing facilities at the University of Arizona to fine-tune their method as they adapt it for COVID-19 detection. Pending approval of the university's institutional review board, students who are already being tested on campus through other methods will have the option to provide written consent for their sample to be run through the smartphone-based testing device as well. Ultimately, the researchers envision distributing the device to campus hubs so that the average person - such as a resident assistant in a dorm - could test saliva samples from groups of people.

"Adapting a method designed to detect the norovirus - another highly contagious pathogen - is an outstanding example of our researchers pivoting in the face of the pandemic," said University of Arizona President Robert C. Robbins. "This promising technology could allow us to provide fast, accurate, affordable tests to the campus community frequently and easily. We hope to make it a regular part of our 'Test, Trace, Treat' strategy, and that it will have a broader impact in mitigating the spread of the disease."

Yoon and his team are also working on another idea, based on a 2018 paper they published in Chemistry--A European Journal, which is even simpler but leaves slightly more room for error. It involves the same technology, but instead of a smartphone microscope and specially designed enclosure, users would only need to download a smartphone app and use a microfluidic chip stamped with a QR code.

"Unlike the fluorescent microscope technique, where you get the chip into just the right position, you just take a snapshot of the chip," said biomedical engineering master's student Pat Akarapipad. "No matter the angle or distance the photo is taken from, the smartphone app can use AI and the QR code to account for variances and run calculations accordingly."

The method requires no training, so, if perfected, it could potentially allow students to pick up microfluidic chips from a campus location and test their own samples. The team is also working with other members of the university's COVID-19 testing group, including Deepta Bhattacharya, an associate professor in the Department of Immunobiology.

###