COVID-19 simulation shows importance of safety efforts during vaccine distribution

Researchers have produced a mathematical simulation that evaluates how many COVID-19 cases could be avoided in North Carolina if more people get vaccinated and follow mask and physical distancing guidelines

UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA HEALTH CARE

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IMAGE: GRAPHIC OF SIMULATION RESULTS view more 

CREDIT: UNC SCHOOL OF MEDICINE

CHAPEL HILL, NC - Research published by JAMA Network Open shows how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like mask wearing and physical distancing can help prevent spikes in COVID-19 cases as populations continue to get vaccinated. The study, led by Mehul Patel, PhD, a clinical and population health researcher in the department of Emergency Medicine at the UNC School of Medicine, focuses on the state of North Carolina. Similar modeling studies have been used in different states, and can serve as guidance to leaders as they make decisions to relax restrictions and safety protocols.

"The computer simulation modeling allows us to look at multiple factors that play a role in decreasing the spread of COVID-19 as vaccines are distributed," Patel said. "We looked at vaccine effectiveness, percent of population vaccinated, and adherence to precautions like mask wearing and physical distancing over a set period of time."

The image from the simulation is a model of multiple scenarios within the state of North Carolina. Knowing that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are more than 90% effective at preventing severe COVID-19, you can follow the black, purple and blue lines to see what could happen if non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like mask wearing and physical distancing are not followed while communities are vaccinated. Furthermore, the simulation also demonstrates how important it is for as many people as possible to get fully vaccinated.

For example, looking at scenario A1, if 75% of our population gets fully vaccinated and we continue to adhere to NPIs, we see a sustained decline down to very few new COVID cases over a six month period. In contrast, looking at scenario C0, if only 25% of our population gets fully vaccinated and does not adhere to NPIs, we could see a sustained increase in daily COVID cases, peaking around 8,000 before we see another decline. For reference, as of June 1, 2021, 38.9% of the entire North Carolina population has been fully vaccinated.

"As soon as you start relaxing mask wearing and physical distancing with any percent of the population vaccinated, you see an increase in cases," Patel said. "Until we reach around 50% of the population vaccinated, there is more potential to have disease spread if we remove NPIs."

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Innovative surgical simulator is a significant advance in training trauma teams

Study finds Department of Defense-commissioned Advanced Modular Manikin with an integrated platform more realistically simulates trauma scenarios as compared with a standalone simulator that permits performance of isolated tasks

AMERICAN COLLEGE OF SURGEONS

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VIDEO: THE ADVANCED MODULAR MANIKIN ENHANCES SURGICAL TEAM EXPERIENCE DURING A TRAUMA SIMULATION: RESULTS OF A SINGLE-BLINDED RANDOMIZED TRIAL. view more 

CREDIT: AMERICAN COLLEGE OF SURGEONS

Key takeaways

• The surgical simulator can realistically simulate multiple trauma scenarios at once, compared with traditional simulators that can only simulate one or a limited number of conditions.
• Trauma team members who tested the simulator preferred it for its realism, physiologic responses, and feedback.
• The benefits of this innovative simulator may be able to extend to other surgical procedures and settings.

CHICAGO (June 1, 2021): Simulators have long been used for training surgeons and surgical teams, but traditional simulator platforms typically have a built-in limitation: they often simulate one or a limited number of conditions that require performance of isolated tasks, such as placing an intravenous catheter, instead of simulating and providing opportunities for feedback on the performance of multiple interventions that a trauma victim may require at the same time. To overcome this limitation, the Advanced Modular Manikin (AMM), an innovative simulation platform that allows integration of other simulation devices, was developed and field testing was conducted, with support from the Department of Defense (DoD).

The DoD subcontracted with the American College of Surgeons (ACS) Division of Education to conduct field testing of the AMM. The results have been published online in advance of print by the Journal of the American College of Surgeons. Robert M. Sweet, MD, FACS, MAMSE, of the department of surgery at the University of Washington, served as principal investigator (PI) of the DoD contract to build the AMM. Ajit K. Sachdeva, MD, FACS, FRCSC, FSACME, MAMSE, Director, Division of Education, American College of Surgeons, served as the PI for the subcontract to conduct field testing.

The investigators reported that members of trauma teams at a testing site preferred the integrated AMM platform including a "peripheral" simulator over the "peripheral" simulator alone, in terms of realism, physiologic responses, and feedback they receive on the multiple and overlapping interventions they perform on a simulated trauma patient. Corresponding study author Dimitrios Stefanidis, MD, PhD, FACS, FASMBS, FSSH, of the department of surgery at Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, described the AMM as "more of a platform rather than a manikin."

The DoD supported development of the AMM through a contract with the University of Minnesota and the University of Washington. The goal was to create an open-source simulation platform that permits integration of a number of simulators, known as "peripherals," into a singular, comprehensive training platform. A Steering Committee composed of leaders and staff of the ACS Division of Education and the Research and Development Committee of the ACS-Accredited Education Institutes, along with leaders from the Development Team of the AMM Project created the model for field testing the AMM.

"The AMM platform, along with the 'peripherals,' can help to address the need for more robust simulators that focus on open procedures and interprofessional teamwork," Dr. Sachdeva explained. "The ability to integrate the anatomic and physiologic elements of the simulation is an important advance. The experience with the trauma scenario may readily be extended to other surgical procedures and settings."

Corresponding author Dr. Stefanidis explained that with most traditional simulators, instructors have to manipulate vital signs to respond to specific actions of the learner. He pointed out that the AMM promotes "a learner experience that is more based on the actual physiology of what's happening to the patient." The AMM platform allows different members of the trauma team to perform different tasks concurrently--one inserts a breathing tube, another starts an intravenous line, another performs a splenectomy. "All of these interventions impact the physiology," he said.

The researchers evaluated team experience ratings of 14 trauma teams consisting of 42 individual members who performed tasks on the integrated AMM platform and the standalone "peripheral" simulator. Team experience ratings were higher for the integrated AMM platform as compared with the standalone "peripheral" simulator. Among the team members, surgeons and first responders rated their experience significantly higher than anesthesiologists, who noted higher workload ratings. In focus groups, the team members said they preferred the AMM platform because of its increased realism, and for the way it responded physiologically to their actions and the feedback it provided.

Dr. Stefanidis explained how the AMM can potentially aid in training trauma teams. "Trauma requires exemplary teamwork," he said. "When we see patients who are injured, there are typically multiple providers who take care of them simultaneously--trauma surgeons, emergency room physicians, anesthesiologists, orthopedic surgeons, neurosurgeons, nurses, respiratory therapists, etc. So, it's extremely important to also be able to train these teams in a low-stress simulation environment, such as by using the AMM, where they can hone their skills, individually and as a team, and perform at their best when faced with the very high-stress clinical environment."

The AMM platform offers other benefits for improving the training and proficiency of trauma teams, said the field study PI, Dr. Sachdeva. "Specific training models could be standardized and the situation made increasingly complex in this safe simulation environment," he said.

CAPTION

The Advanced Modular Manikin Enhances Surgical Team Experience During a Trauma Simulation: Results of a Single-Blinded Randomized Trial.

CREDIT

American College of Surgeons

Study coauthors with Drs. Stefanidis, Sachdeva and Sweet are Rajesh Aggarwal, MBBS, MA (Cantab), PhD, FRCS, FACS, MAMSE, of the Department of Surgery, Sidney Kimmel Medical College, Thomas Jefferson University, Philadelphia; Robert M. Rush, Jr., MD, FACS, of PeaceHealth St. Joseph's Medical Center, Bellingham, Wash.; Gyusung Lee, PhD, and Patrice G. Blair, MPH of the ACS Division of Education; David Hananel of the Department of Surgery, University of Washington, Seattle; Yoon Soo Park, PhD, of the Department of Medical Education, University of Illinois College of Medicine, Chicago; and Gordon G. Wisbach, MD, MBA, FACS, CAPT, MC, USN, of the Bioskills and Simulation Training Center, Naval Medical Center, San Diego.

The study authors have no relevant financial relationships to disclose.
"FACS" designates that a surgeon is a Fellow of the American College of Surgeons.
Citation: The Advanced Modular Manikintm Enhances Surgical Team Experience During a Trauma Simulation: Results of a Single-Blinded Randomized Trial. Journal of the American College of Surgeons. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2021.04.029.

About the American College of Surgeons

The American College of Surgeons is a scientific and educational organization of surgeons that was founded in 1913 to raise the standards of surgical practice and improve the quality of care for all surgical patients. The College is dedicated to the ethical and competent practice of surgery. Its achievements have significantly influenced the course of scientific surgery in America and have established it as an important advocate for all surgical patients. The College has more than 80,000 members and is the largest organization of surgeons in the world. For more information, visit http://www.facs.org.

Researchers develop prototype of robotic device to pick, trim button mushrooms

PENN STATE

Research News

 

IMAGE: TO DETERMINE FORCES THAT NEEDED TO BE PROGRAMMED INTO THE ROBOTIC PICKER, RESEARCHERS TOOK MUSHROOM-PICKING-DYNAMICS MEASUREMENTS USING FORCE SENSORS AND AN INERTIAL MEASUREMENT UNIT. view more 

CREDIT: PENN STATE

Researchers in Penn State's College of Agricultural Sciences have developed a robotic mechanism for mushroom picking and trimming and demonstrated its effectiveness for the automated harvesting of button mushrooms.

In a new study, the prototype, which is designed to be integrated with a machine vision system, showed that it is capable of both picking and trimming mushrooms growing in a shelf system.

The research is consequential, according to lead author Long He, assistant professor of agricultural and biological engineering, because the mushroom industry has been facing labor shortages and rising labor costs. Mechanical or robotic picking can help alleviate those problems.

"The mushroom industry in Pennsylvania is producing about two-thirds of the mushrooms grown nationwide, and the growers here are having a difficult time finding laborers to handle the harvesting, which is a very labor intensive and difficult job," said He. "The industry is facing some challenges, so an automated system for harvesting like the one we are working on would be a big help."

The button mushroom -- Agaricus bisporus -- is an important agricultural commodity. A total of 891 million pounds of button mushrooms valued at $1.13 billion were consumed in the U.S. from 2017 to 2018. Of this production, 91% were for the fresh market, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and were picked by hand, one by one, to ensure product quality, shelf life and appearance. Labor costs for mushroom harvesting account for 15% to 30% of the production value, He pointed out.

Developing a device to effectively harvest mushrooms was a complex endeavor, explained He. In hand-picking, a picker first locates a mature mushroom and detaches it with one hand, typically using three fingers. A knife, in the picker's other hand, is then used to remove the stipe end. Sometimes the picker waits until there are two or three mushrooms in hand and cuts them one by one. Finally, the mushroom is placed in a collection box. A robotic mechanism had to achieve an equivalent picking process.

The researchers designed a robotic mushroom-picking mechanism that included a picking "end-effector" based on a bending motion, a "4-degree-of-freedom positioning" end-effector for moving the picking end-effector, a mushroom stipe-trimming end-effector, and an electro-pneumatic control system. They fabricated a laboratory-scale prototype to validate the performance of the mechanism.

The research team used a suction cup mechanism to latch onto mushrooms and conducted bruise tests on the mushroom caps to analyze the influence of air pressure and acting time of the suction cup.

The test results, recently published in Transactions of the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers, showed that the picking end-effector was successfully positioned to the target locations and its success rate was 90% at first pick, increasing to 94.2% after second pick.

The trimming end-effector achieved a success rate of 97% overall. The bruise tests indicated that the air pressure was the main factor affecting the bruise level, compared to the suction-cup acting time, and an optimized suction cup may help to alleviate the bruise damage, the researchers noted. The laboratory test results indicated that the developed picking mechanism has potential to be implemented in automatic mushroom harvesting.

Button mushrooms for the study were grown in tubs at Penn State's Mushroom Research Center on the University Park campus. Fabrication and experiments were conducted at the Fruit Research and Extension Center in Biglerville. A total of 70 picking tests were conducted to evaluate the robotic picking mechanism. The working pressures of the pneumatic system and the suction cup were set at 80 and 25 pounds per square inch, respectively.

CAPTION

The prototype, which is designed to be integrated with a machine vision system, showed that it is capable of both picking mushrooms with a pneumatic system (top photo) and trimming them (bottom photo).

CREDIT

Penn State

Other Penn State researchers involved in the study were Daeun Choi, assistant professor of agricultural and biological engineering, and John Pecchia, associate research professor, Department of Plant Pathology and Environmental Microbiology. Research team members also included doctoral students Mingsen Huang, from Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China; and Xiaohu Jiang, from Jilin University, Changchun, China, both visiting Penn State's Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering.

The Penn State Mushroom Research Competitive Grants Program supported this research.

DEPT OF BIO WARFARE

Scientists develop novel therapy for crimean-congo hemorrhagic fever virus

US ARMY MEDICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Research News

 

Army scientists working as part of an international consortium have developed and tested an antibody-based therapy to treat Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), which is carried by ticks and kills up to 60 percent of those infected. Their results are published online today in the journal Cell.

Using blood samples donated by disease survivors, the study's authors characterized the human immune response to natural CCHFV infection. They were able to identify several potent neutralizing antibodies that target the viral glycoprotein--a component of the virus that plays a key role in disease development. Several of these antibodies, administered individually or in combination, protected mice from CCHFV when given prior to virus exposure.

To treat mice that had already been infected, the team created "bispecific" antibodies that combined potency with the ability to bind to two separate sites on the CCHFV glycoprotein. One of these bispecific antibodies, called DVD-121-801, overcame CCHFV infection in mice with just a single dose administered 24 hours after challenge with live virus.

Efforts are underway to develop DVD-121-801 as a potential therapeutic for human patients, according to co-first author Andrew H. Herbert, Ph.D., of the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID).

CCHFV is the most prevalent tick-borne virus that causes human disease, and is endemic in countries across Europe, Asia, and Africa. Despite its high lethality and widespread distribution, no vaccines or specific treatments are available. It has been designated a priority pathogen by the World Health Organization.

"Rodent models of CCHFV infection are useful in testing and down-selecting neutralizing antibodies," commented Herbert. "However, to advance a lead candidate for therapeutic use, it will be necessary to conduct studies in larger animal models that more faithfully recapitulate human disease."

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In addition to USAMRIID, other institutions participating in the study were Adimab, LLC; Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, New York; Mapp Biopharmaceutical, Inc.; the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston; the University of Texas at Austin; Institut Pasteur in Paris, France; Ben-Gurion University of the Negev in Beer-Sheva, Israel; and Uganda Virus Research Institute in Entebbe, Uganda.

About the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases:

For over 50 years, USAMRIID has provided leading edge medical capabilities to deter and defend against current and emerging biological threat agents. The Institute is the only laboratory in the Department of Defense equipped to safely study highly hazardous viruses requiring maximum containment at Biosafety Level 4. Research conducted at USAMRIID leads to medical solutions - vaccines, drugs, diagnostics, information, and training programs - that benefit both military personnel and civilians. Established in 1969, the Institute plays a key role as the lead military medical research laboratory for the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Joint Science and Technology Office for Chemical and Biological Defense. USAMRIID is a subordinate laboratory of the U.S. Army Medical Research and Development Command. For more information, visit http://www.usamriid.army.mil.

Reference:

Chandran, Kartik et al. "Protective neutralizing antibodies from human survivors of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever." DOI: 10.1016/j.cell.2021.05.001

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(21)00584-5\

Authors:

J. Maximilian Fels, Daniel P. Maurer, Andrew S. Herbert, Ariel S. Wirchnianski, Olivia
Vergnolle, Robert W. Cross, Dafna M. Abelson, Crystal L. Moyer, Akaash K. Mishra,
Jennifer T. Aguilan, Ana I. Kuehne, Noel T. Pauli, Russell R. Bakken, Elisabeth K.
Nyakatura, Jan Hellert, Gregory Quevedo, Leslie Lobel, Stephen Balinandi, Julius J.
Lutwama, Larry Zeitlin, Thomas W. Geisbert, Felix A. Rey, Simone Sidoli, Jason S.
McLellan, Jonathan R. Lai, Zachary A. Bornholdt, John M. Dye, Laura M. Walker, and Kartik Chandran.

Funding:

This work was supported in part by a National Institutes of Health grant to the Prometheus Center for Excellence in Translational Research, a consortium of academic, industry, and government partners working to develop antibody-based therapies against CCHFV and other highly lethal viruses. A complete list of funding organizations appears in the publicati

 

Analysis reveals global 'hot spots' where new coronaviruses may emerge

Forest fragmentation, agricultural expansion and concentrated livestock production in China and Southeast Asia are bringing humans into closer contact with bats known to carry zoonotic diseases

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - BERKELEY

Research News

 

Berkeley -- Global land-use changes -- including forest fragmentation, agricultural expansion and concentrated livestock production -- are creating "hot spots" favorable for bats that carry coronaviruses and where conditions are ripe for the diseases to jump from bats to humans, finds an analysis published this week by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, the Politecnico di Milano (Polytechnic University of Milan) and Massey University of New Zealand.

While the exact origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus remain unclear, scientists believe that the disease likely emerged when a virus that infects horseshoe bats was able to jump to humans, either directly through wildlife-to-human contact, or indirectly by first infecting an intermediate animal host, such as the pangolin, sometimes known as the scaly anteater. Horseshoe bats are known to carry a variety of coronaviruses, including strains that are genetically similar to ones that cause COVID-19 and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

The new study used remote sensing to analyze land use patterns throughout the horseshoe bat's range, which extends from Western Europe through Southeast Asia. By identifying areas of forest fragmentation, human settlement and agricultural and livestock production, and comparing these to known horseshoe bat habitats, they identified potential hot spots where habitat is favorable for these bat species, and where these so-called zoonotic viruses could potentially jump from bats to humans. The analysis also identified locations that could become easily become hot spots with changes in land use.

"Land use changes can have an important impact on human health, both because we are modifying the environment, but also because they can increase our exposure to zoonotic disease," said study co-author Paolo D'Odorico, a professor of environmental science, policy and management at UC Berkeley. "Every formal land use change should be evaluated not only for the environmental and social impacts on resources such as carbon stocks, microclimate and water availability, but also for the potential chain reactions that could impact human health."

Most of the current hot spots are clustered in China, where a growing demand for meat products has driven the expansion of large-scale, industrial livestock farming. Concentrated livestock production is particularly concerning because the practice brings together large populations of genetically similar, often immune-suppressed animals that are highly vulnerable to disease outbreaks, the researchers said.

The analysis also found that parts of Japan, the north Philippines and China south of Shanghai are at risk of becoming hot spots with further forest fragmentation, while parts of Indochina and Thailand may transition into hot spots with increases in livestock production.

"The analyses aimed to identify the possible emergence of new hot spots in response to an increase in one of three land use attributes, highlighting both the areas that could become suitable for spillover and the type of land use change that could induce hot spot activation," said study co-author Maria Cristina Rulli, a professor in hydrology and water and food security at the Politecnico di Milano in Italy. "We hope these results could be useful for identifying region-specific targeted interventions needed to increase resilience to coronavirus spillovers."

Human encroachment into natural habitat can also can indirectly increase exposure to zoonotic disease by reducing valuable biodiversity. When forest lands become fragmented and natural habitats are destroyed, species that require very specific habitat to survive, called "specialists," may dwindle or even go extinct. Without competition from specialists, "generalist" species, which are less picky about their habitat, can take over.

Horseshoe bats are a generalist species and have often been observed in areas characterized by human disturbance. Earlier work by Rulli, D'Odorico and study co-author David Hayman has also linked forest fragmentation and habitat destruction in Africa to outbreaks of the Ebola virus.

"By creating conditions that are disadvantageous to specialist species, generalist species are able to thrive," D'Odorico said. "While we are unable to directly trace the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from wildlife to humans, we do know that the type of land use change that brings humans into the picture is typically associated with the presence of these bats who are known to carry the virus."

While China has been a leader in tree planting and other greening efforts over the past two decades, many of the trees have been planted in discontinuous land areas or forest fragments. To tilt the ecological balance back in favor of specialist species, creating continuous areas of forest cover and wildlife corridors are more important than increasing total tree cover.

"Human health is intertwined with environmental health and also animal health," D'Odorico said. "Our study is one of the first to connect the dots and really drill down into the geographic data on land use to see how humans are coming into contact with species that might be carriers."

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Co-authors of the paper also include Nikolas Galli of the Politecnico di Milano and David Hayman of Massey University

This research was supported by the Eni Enrico Mattei Foundation (FEEM), the Cariplo Foundation (SusFeed project 0737 CUP D49H170000300007), Regione Lombardia (RUD0CONV01/ASSO project D44I20002000002), a Royal Society Te Apārangi Rutherford Discovery Fellowship RDF-MAU1701 MAU1701, and the Massey University Foundation

If countries implement Paris pledges with cuts to aerosols, millions of lives can be saved

A strategic approach to reducing both greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution can reap major health and temperature benefits, according to new UC San Diego research

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SAN DIEGO

Research News

 

IMAGE: THE UC SAN DIEGO TEAM WANTED TO EXPLORE THE TRADEOFFS COUNTRIES WOULD FACE BY TAKING AEROSOLS INTO CONSIDERATION WHILE CONCURRENTLY MAKING CO2 CUTS TO IMPLEMENT PARIS PLEDGES. THEIR MODEL PROVIDES... view more 

CREDIT: UC SAN DIEGO

Aerosol reductions that would take place as countries meet climate goals could contribute to global cooling and prevent more than one million annual premature deaths over a decade, according to a new study from the University of California San Diego.

The landmark Paris Agreement of 2016 does not address emissions of aerosols--fine particulates like soot that cause pollution. Nonetheless, findings from the recent study authored by researchers at UC San Diego's Scripps Institution of Oceanography and the School of Global Policy and Strategy suggests that aerosol accounting should be explicitly incorporated into international climate policy.

It is crucial because as countries implement their greenhouse gas reduction targets under the Paris climate agreement, their choices about which sectors to target will also reduce aerosols that are co-emitted, which will have major impacts to public health and global temperatures.

"Joint consideration of greenhouse gases and aerosols is critical," said Pascal Polonik, a Ph.D. student at Scripps Oceanography and first author of the paper published in Earth's Future. "Polluting particles, known as aerosols, are emitted in tandem with greenhouse gases but aren't accounted for. While all greenhouse gas emissions might be thought of as unambiguously harmful, aerosols are more complicated. All aerosols are harmful to human health but they also often help counteract global warming by cooling the Earth's surface."

It is estimated that emissions of aerosols from burning fossil fuels like coal and diesel are responsible for nine million premature deaths worldwide. Though most aerosols have a cooling effect because they reflect sunlight, certain types, such as black carbon have a warming effect.

The UC San Diego team wanted to explore the tradeoffs countries would face by taking aerosols into consideration while concurrently making CO2 cuts to implement Paris pledges.

Their model provides a country-by-country breakdown of the impacts of aerosol reductions across the eight economic sectors which cause emissions. For each country, the authors consider three scenarios. The first scenario prioritizes air quality, targeting aerosol cuts to the "dirtiest" sectors that emit the most solid particles. The second prioritizes temperatures by targeting industries that emit aerosols that most contribute to warming and the third, dubbed the "politically expedient" approach, reduces emissions from all economic sectors equally.

Preventing as many as one million premature deaths per year by cutting emissions from certain sectors first

Under these three approaches, the authors find that by 2030, the three scenarios would yield prevention of as many as one million premature deaths every year and global temperature differences of the same magnitude as those from greenhouse gas reductions.

The study demonstrates the importance of domestic decisions for reducing emissions because making cuts to certain sectors can produce cleaner air and save more lives, or further reduce warming.

For example, the U.S. could choose to save more lives by targeting aerosol emissions in the industrial production, shipping, or residential/commercial sectors. It could also choose to limit warming more with cuts to the solvents, residential/commercial and waste sectors.

To the authors' surprise, the third scenario, which may be most politically feasible to implement as policy, can lead to both more deaths and less cooling in certain places, such as Africa, China, the Middle East and South America.

"Implementing cuts equally and making each industry do their fair share may be the easiest way to implement climate policy in a democratic society like the U.S. where there are many competing political interests," said co-author Kate Ricke, assistant professor with Scripps Oceanography and the School of Global Policy and Strategy. "However, there are real benefits to being thoughtful about how aerosols factor into climate policy outcomes. There may be big benefits to cutting emissions from certain sectors first."

The research is critical to the U.S., as it is currently renegotiating its Paris agreement climate pledge.

"Our analysis does indicate some considerable tradeoffs between temperature and health outcomes that will need to be contended with in meeting near-term emission reductions goals," said Jennifer Burney, the Marshall Saunders Chancellor's Endowed Chair in Global Climate Policy and Research at the School of Global Policy and Strategy.

In India, for example, emission cuts in the transportation sector could save more lives, while cuts in the residential sector would produce more cooling.

The authors note that because the tradeoffs vary considerably for each region, countries are likely to have different priorities for weighing reduction of warming versus protection of public health when making climate policy decisions.

The conclusion, they emphasize, is that there are many ways to achieve the same magnitude of greenhouse gas reduction pledged in the Paris Agreement, but the aerosol emissions that "ride along" with those cuts may vary a lot depending on which sectors are targeted. As such, the authors write, "we believe that this is a strong case for explicitly considering aerosols when constructing climate policy."

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ANOTHER FIND IN THE MUSEUM STORAGE ROOM

New evidence may change timeline for when people first arrived in North America

IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

IMAGE: ANDREW SOMERVILLE MADE AN UNEXPECTED DISCOVERY WHILE STUDYING THE ORIGINS OF AGRICULTURE. view more 

CREDIT: CHRISTOPHER GANNON, IOWA STATE UNIVERSITY

AMES, Iowa - An unexpected discovery by an Iowa State University researcher suggests that the first humans may have arrived in North America more than 30,000 years ago - nearly 20,000 years earlier than originally thought.

Andrew Somerville, an assistant professor of anthropology in world languages and cultures, says he and his colleagues made the discovery while studying the origins of agriculture in the Tehuacan Valley in Mexico. As part of that work, they wanted to establish a date for the earliest human occupation of the Coxcatlan Cave in the valley, so they obtained radiocarbon dates for several rabbit and deer bones that were collected from the cave in the 1960s as part of the Tehuacan Archaeological-Botanical Project. The dates for the bones suddenly took Somerville and his colleagues in a different direction with their work.

The date ranges for the bone samples from the base of the cave ranged from 33,448 to 28,279 years old. The results are published in the academic journal Latin American Antiquity. Somerville says even though previous studies had not dated items from the bottom of the cave, he was not expecting such old ages. The findings add to the debate over a long-standing theory that the first humans crossed the Bering Land Bridge into the Americas 13,000 years ago.

"We weren't trying to weigh in on this debate or even find really old samples. We were just trying to situate our agricultural study with a firmer timeline," Somerville said. "We were surprised to find these really old dates at the bottom of the cave, and it means that we need to take a closer look at the artifacts recovered from those levels."

Somerville says the findings provide researchers with a better understanding of the chronology of the region. Previous studies relied on charcoal and plant samples, but he says the bones were a better material for dating. However, questions still remain. Most importantly, is there a human link to the bottom layer of the cave where the bones were found?

To answer that question, Somerville and Matthew Hill, ISU associate professor of anthropology, plan to take a closer look at the bone samples for evidence of cut marks that indicate the bones were butchered by a stone tool or human, or thermal alternations that suggest the bones were boiled or roasted over fire. He says the possible stone tools from the early levels of the cave may also yield clues.

"Determining whether the stone artifacts were products of human manufacture or if they were just naturally chipped stones would be one way to get to the bottom of this," Somerville said. "If we can find strong evidence that humans did in fact make and use these tools, that's another way we can move forward."

CAPTION

One of the rabbit bones dated for the study.

CREDIT

Andrew Somerville, Iowa State University

Year-long journey to even find the bones

Not only was this discovery unexpected, but the process of tracking down the animal bones to take samples was more than Somerville anticipated. The collection of artifacts from the 1960s Tehuacan Archaeological-Botanical Project was distributed to different museums and labs in Mexico and the United States, and it was unclear where the animal bones were sent.

After a year of emails and cold calls, Somerville and his collaborator, Isabel Casar from the National Autonomous University of Mexico, had a potential lead for a lab in Mexico City. The lab director, Joaquin Arroyo-Cabrales, agreed to give Somerville and Casar a tour to help search for the missing collection. The tour proved to be beneficial. Among the countless boxes of artifacts, they found what they were looking for.

"Having spent months trying to locate the bones, we were excited to find them tucked away on the bottom shelf in a dark corner of the lab," Somerville said. "At the time, we felt that was a great discovery, we had no idea it would lead to this."

Once he located the bones, Somerville got permission from the Mexican government to take small samples - about 3/4 inch in length and 1/4 inch in width - from 17 bones (eight rabbits and nine deer) for radiocarbon dating. If closer examination of the bones provides evidence of a human link, Somerville says it will change what we know about the timing and how the first people came to America.

"Pushing the arrival of humans in North America back to over 30,000 years ago would mean that humans were already in North America prior to the period of the Last Glacial Maximum, when the Ice Age was at its absolute worst," Somerville said. "Large parts of North America would have been inhospitable to human populations. The glaciers would have completely blocked any passage over land coming from Alaska and Canada, which means people probably would have had to come to the Americas by boats down the Pacific coast."

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Isabel Casar, a professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, and Joaquín Arroyo-Cabrales, a researcher with the National Institute of Anthropology and History in Mexico, contributed to this research. The work was funded by the National Science Foundation and the Wenner-Gren Foundation.

 F FOR FAKE

Forged books of seventeenth-century music discovered in Venetian library

PENN STATE

Research News

 

IMAGE: THE MANUSCRIPTS INCLUDE ARIAS THAT WERE FOUNDATIONAL IN THE HISTORY OF OPERA -- A GENRE THAT EMERGED IN THE EARLY SEVENTEENTH CENTURY. view more 

CREDIT: MICHEL GARRETT, PENN STATE

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. -- In 1916 and 1917, a musician and book dealer named Giovanni Concina sold three ornately decorated seventeenth-century songbooks to a library in Venice, Italy. Now, more than 100 years later, a musicologist at Penn State has discovered that the manuscripts are fakes, meticulously crafted to appear old but actually fabricated just prior to their sale to the library. The manuscripts are rare among music forgeries in that the songs are authentic, but the books are counterfeit.

Uncovering deception was not what Marica Tacconi, professor of musicology and associate director of the School of Music at Penn State, set out to do when she began her research at the Biblioteca Nazionale Marciana of Venice in 2018. While on sabbatical there, she had planned to spend the fall semester studying 'echo effects' in seventeenth-century music -- phrases that are sung by the primary vocalist and then repeated 'in echo' by one or more additional singers.

While searching the library's database for songs incorporating echo effects, Tacconi stumbled upon a peculiar book. Catalogued as being from the seventeenth century, it certainly looked the part. It was bound in worn leather and embellished with brass bosses, or metal knobs that serve to elevate and protect the book from the table surface. Inside, the paper showed some signs of deterioration, including even an occasional worm hole. The first page revealed an elaborate letter 'T,' indicating the opening of the song "Tu mancavi a tormentarmi" by Antonio Cesti. The music itself was written with heart-shaped noteheads, and the bottom of the page displayed the coat of arms of the Contarini family, one of the most prominent and influential Venetian households.

"It was a beautiful, elegantly produced book," said Tacconi. "I was immediately intrigued. But I also sensed that something was off."

Additional research led to the discovery of two more manuscripts, also sold by Concina and very similar in format, design and content. Considered as a set, the three books preserve 61 compositions by 26 Italian composers, all written during the period from 1600 to 1678. According to Tacconi, an expert on the music, art and culture of early modern Italy, typical seventeenth-century music anthologies focus on just one or a few composers.

"The books comprised a strange conglomeration of composers, from very famous ones, like Giulio Caccini, Claudio Monteverdi and Francesco Cavalli, to lesser-known names. This was unusual for the seventeenth century when music anthologies tended to be more monographic in content," she said. "In addition, seventeenth-century scribes would not have had access to such a wide range of music, as many of those pieces had not yet been printed and existed only in manuscripts that did not circulate widely."

CAPTION

Considered as a set, the three books Tacconi found preserve 61 compositions by 26 Italian composers, all written during the period from 1600 to 1678.

CREDIT

Michel Garrett, Penn State

Despite her suspicions about the authenticity of the manuscripts, Tacconi was excited about the music itself.

"The manuscripts include arias that were foundational in the history of opera -- a genre that emerged in the early seventeenth century," she said. "They include musical gems that can tell us a lot about the origins and development of opera."

Upon further close investigation, she realized that much of the music in the manuscripts had been lifted, note for note, from a number of late nineteenth-/early twentieth-century books about music.

"The music copied in the manuscripts showed some strange editorial quirks that you can see in early twentieth-century editions, but that would not have appeared in seventeenth-century sources," said Tacconi, who proceeded to conduct a detailed comparison of the manuscripts with more modern books.

This type of painstaking comparison proved to be particularly fruitful in proving the manuscripts' fabricated nature. Tacconi's knowledge of a little-known twentieth-century book in particular, Hugo Riemann's "Handbuch der Musikgeschichte" (1912), provided verification of her suspicions. For example, one of the fabricated manuscripts included the song "Torna o torna pargoletto" by Jacopo Peri, which originally appeared in Piero Benedetti's "Musiche" -- a collection of songs published in 1611. Riemann included it in his "Handbuch," but with some alterations. Tacconi noticed these small but significant variants -- a wrong note, a misspelling of a word.

"It was obvious that the fabricator copied the music from Riemann's 1912 publication and not from the 1611 print," she said. "This was the 'smoking gun,' the confirmation that these books were indeed forgeries."

CAPTION

Marica Tacconi, professor of musicology and associate director of the School of Music at Penn State, teaches Penn State students about the manuscripts.

CREDIT

Michel Garrett, Penn State

Tacconi noted that the books are unique among music forgeries in that most forgeries falsify the music itself.

"While the music preserved in these books is authentic, the manuscripts themselves are the handiwork of one or more fabricators who, working with several scribes and decorators, went through extraordinary means to make the volumes appear genuine," she said. "The books were clearly designed to look like those created for important Venetian households during the seventeenth century. It's not surprising that the library staff did not recognize them as fakes. At first glance they seem authentic, but once we look closely at the music and notice the editorial quirks, we detect the subtle traces of a twentieth-century fabricator."

Tacconi said that it is impossible to know whether Concina, who died in 1946, was the mastermind behind the forgeries or if he came into possession of the books with no knowledge of their fabricated nature.

Regardless of who generated the forgeries, an important question is "Why did they do it?"

"Monetary gain was probably not the main impetus," said Tacconi, explaining that the library paid Concina the equivalent of about $220 in today's money for one of the manuscripts. "That's a relatively modest sum, which does not really justify all the time and effort that went into producing these books. Instead, what we have is possibly an example of the fabricators engaging in a desire to hoodwink the experts."

In addition, she said, the forgers could have been motivated by a love for the music and the time period. "Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery," after all.

"Twentieth-century musicians and publishers often romanticized the music of the seventeenth century as being particularly elegant, and that elegance is something you see very clearly in the visual aspects of the three manuscripts," said Tacconi. "They're beautiful and ornate; their decorations include butterflies, birds and little cupids; the notes are heart shaped. The fact that the forgers went to such an effort to portray this elegance tells us something about the forgers' attitudes about the music of this time period. Knowing now that these books were created in the early twentieth century, the manuscripts and their contents actually provide an opportunity to study the late-Romantic tradition of so-called 'arie antiche' or 'gemme antiche,' which saw music collectors, musicians and audiences alike drawn to the antiquity of Italian Baroque solo vocal music."

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Tacconi's findings appear in the Spring 2021 issue of the peer-reviewed Journal of Seventeenth-Century Music, which displays full-color images of the manuscripts (https://sscm-jscm.org/jscm-issues/volume-27-no-1/three-forged-seventeenth-century-venetian-songbooks/). .