Tuesday, March 01, 2022

Putin's aggression would be impossible without the US creating a world safe for autocracy

February 24, 2022

Ukrainian servicemen stand near an armored personnel carrier BTR-3 on the northwest of Kyiv on February 24, 2022
 [DANIEL LEAL/AFP via Getty Images]


Nasim Ahmed
Nasimbythedocks
February 24, 2022 at 3:27 pm
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I have been watching the Russia-Ukraine crises unfold while reading Ben Rhodes' new book, "After the Fall: Being American in the World We've Made". It is riveting, essential reading for anyone who wants to get a deeper understanding of Russian aggression and, more generally, the rise of authoritarianism around the world.

Why is democracy in retreat and autocracy in the ascendency? And why now? It is a question baffling many and has become a theme of many recent books. In Rhodes' quest for an answer, the former White House speechwriter who served as a deputy National Security Adviser for US President Barack Obama from 2009-2017, travels around the world interviewing dissidents pushing back against the tide of authoritarianism. He observes the plight of frail societies, where the battle between democracy and autocracy has taken centre stage in recent years, including countries like Hungary, Russia, Myanmar and the one country you would least likely to expect in a book about the rise of authoritarianism, the US. In each of these countries, democracy has been in retreat, if not routed completely.

The book, though, could just as easily have included the many dozens of other states undergoing a similar downhill slide into illiberal democracy. India, for instance. Under the government of the far-right BJP, the country's long tradition of democracy has retreated to give way to an ugly form of nationalism that is deeply hostile towards Muslims.

In each of the cases, there is a familiar pattern, an authoritarian playbook if you like, that is masterfully deployed to turn democracies into autocracies. Its main features include fostering a sense of everlasting victimhood; promotion of blood and soil ethnic nationalism; a rejection of civil society and globalisation; tapping into people's genuine outrage over the excesses of globalisation and inequality; daily attack and dehumanisation of the other, who in most instances, are Muslims.

READ: The importance of Turkiye's oversight of warship movements as possible Russia, Ukraine war heats up

With the playbook at hand to consolidate the slide into authoritarianism, all it takes is for a demagogue like Donald Trump, Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu, India's Narendra Modi and Saudi's Mohammed Bin Salman, to cleverly employ the techniques and offer a sense of belonging and cast themselves as the protectors of the people.

As the subtitle of the book suggests – Being American in the World We've Made– the original sin of the current retreat of democracy lies at the door of the US. As the sole superpower following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, America's behaviour has been the most crucial factor to this growing phenomenon. Rhodes himself powerfully highlights America's authoritarian turn by revealing that the administration of Donald Trump had hired an Israeli private intelligence agency to orchestrate a "dirty ops" campaign against him and other senior members of the Obama team. The Israeli agents specifically targeted Rhodes. The idea, apparently, was to smear Rhodes and his colleagues as corrupt in order to discredit the Iran nuclear deal.

For Rhodes, Trump's authoritarian streak is not, however, the cause of US descent, but a symptom of a much uglier underbelly of American democracy. Rhodes goes to great lengths to explain this. He traces the slide to the 9/11 attacks, followed by the invasion of Iraq, in pursuit of non-existent weapons of mass destruction. Both "cracked open the facade that elites in the United States knew what they were doing" and called into question "why Americans were the stewards of world order." The colossal mishandling of Iraq – and, subsequently, Afghanistan – was followed by the 2008 global financial crises, triggered by predatory lending by American banks. Whatever confidence was left in the US-led global system was shattered. Countries across Europe and elsewhere were exposed to the excesses of globalisation in a way they had never been. Inequality was pushed to its worst levels in recent history. The vast majority saw themselves as being abandoned and let down by their governments, while rich elites got bailed out.




Russian President Vladimir Putin's recognised two breakaway territories in Eastern Ukraine – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/Middle East Monitor]

These seismic events played out under a culture of international rule breaking by the US and its allies. It chipped away at the legitimacy of so-called rules-based "liberal international order" installed by the US in the aftermath of the Second World War.

In summary, the international order established by the victorious allies set the framework of liberal political and economic rules. They are embodied in a network of international organisations and regulations such as the UN, International Monetary Fund and various other multinational institutions. The rules are shaped and enforced by the most powerful nations, usually the US. The idea, in theory at least, was to end the winner takes all global systems of the age of empires and colonialism and establish a new one where every nation can prosper through global free trade under a security umbrella provided by the US.

The slow but inevitable unravelling of this system has been both the most critical and the most consequential development of the past two decades. One only needs to look at the way the US and its western allies have indulged Israel's ongoing occupation and takeover of Palestine to see how the so-called liberal rules-based order has been undermined by the very people that claim to be its protector. Why would the likes of Modi and Putin respect the rightful territorial claims of others in occupied Kashmir or Ukraine, if Israel's annexation of the Golan Heights, Jerusalem and West Bank gets America's seal of approval? Why would autocrats and dictators in the Middle East and elsewhere care about human rights, when the US is willing to accept the apartheid practices of its main ally, Israel?

READ: The crisis in Ukraine and its implications for the Arab countries

Instead of creating a world "safe for democracy" as US President, Woodrow Wilson, remarked at the dawn of the 20th century, setting America on its path of missionary zeal in defence of liberal internationalism, its disastrous policies in the Middle East and around the world have, instead, created a world safe for autocracy. There is no incentive for the likes of Mohammed bin Salman, Egypt's Abdul Fateh Al- Sisi, Putin, Hungary's Victor Orban or any of the other autocrats to want to play by the rules. America's indulgence of rule breaking by its allies has reversed the incentive structure of the global system, where it pays to be a rule breaker in the international system, let alone be punished.

Perhaps America's greatest gift to autocrats is a version of a state in which, as Rhodes says "the machinery of government has been redesigned to fight an endless war at home and abroad". The war on terror allowed for the installation of a highly securitised infrastructure and a deeply racist discourse for the US to embark on its two-decade-long seemingly never-ending wars. Across the world autocrats exploit the threat of "Muslim terrorism" to justify gross human rights abuse and subvert democracy. Needless to say, fearmongering about terrorism and conspiracy theories about "creeping sharia" have taken deep roots in culture and society, not just in the US, but also across the world.

The likes of Chinese President Xi Jinping have adopted the US War on Terror template, as have many regimes in the Middle East. In 2014, when Uyghur terrorists took dozens of lives in the autonomous territory of Xinjiang, state media referred to the attacks as "China's 9/11." Xi urged Chinese officials to follow the American post-9/11 script, setting in motion a crackdown that would eventually lead to a million Uyghurs being thrown into concentration camps.

It is one of the ironies of history that American incompetence and, some would say, hubris over the past two decades has become central to the story about the retreat of democracy and the rise of autocracy. That, though, is the reality. Maybe we are in the twilight of democracy, as some have suggested. The question for America is, can the most powerful country in history founded on the idea of freedom and equality slow the slide towards a world made safe for autocracy?

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
The crisis in Ukraine exposes the hypocrisy of Israel and its Zionist allies

February 25, 2022 

A selection of front pages from UK daily national newspaper coverage of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 25 February 2022 in London, England. 
[Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images]


Yvonne Ridley
yvonneridley
February 25, 2022 

In Scotland, when someone is on shaky ground or skating on thin ice they are said to be hanging by a "shoogly peg". That is exactly where Israel has found itself over the crisis in Ukraine as the hypocrisy of Tel Aviv and its Zionist allies is exposed for the whole world to see.

According to them all — the US, the UK, the EU and Israel itself — Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty are sacrosanct. Why, though, do each and every one of them not apply the same principle to Palestine and the Palestinians? Aren't the people of that occupied land not entitled to their own territorial integrity and sovereignty without the reality of daily armed incursions by the aggressively-colonial state of Israel, a country which has never declared where its borders lie because its founding Zionist ideology demands its constant expansion into neighbouring counties, not just the land of Palestine?

Until the UN and NATO roll out a level playing field when it comes to human rights, sovereignty and respect for borders, we can expect to witness more invasions and land grabs as powerful states continue to act with impunity.

The old adage that truth is the first casualty of war is playing out before our eyes. It is hard to know what is really happening in Ukraine, with Russia Today taking an obvious pro-Moscow position, while the BBC has gone "full tonto" to use the unfortunate, testosterone-filled, macho language of Britain's Defence Minister Ben Wallace. Trustworthy sources of news are thin on the ground.

Russian President Vladimir Putin insists that his army is lending support to the breakaway republics of Donbass and Lugansk, but he would say that wouldn't he? Meanwhile, his US counterpart, Joe Biden, is accusing the Russian leader of a full-scale invasion, but he would say that, wouldn't he? With reckless calls on all sides inciting other powers to take military action, where is this heading?

READ: The crisis in Ukraine and its implications for the Arab countries

The people of Taiwan must be very worried, in case China follows Russia's example and invades the island, which Beijing believes is legitimate Chinese territory. On Thursday, fighter jets were scrambled because Chinese aircraft were in Taiwanese airspace.

The Palestinians have every right to ask why Western leaders, led by Biden, are imposing crippling sanctions on Moscow and threatening more retaliatory action if it continues with its invasion of Ukraine, but don't take similar action against Israeli colonialism. These are the same leaders, remember, who turn a blind eye to Israel's ongoing theft of Palestinian land, and its military offensives against the Palestinians in the besieged Gaza Strip. Israel stands accused of implementing the crime of apartheid in occupied Palestine by B'Tselem, Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International; committing war crimes in Gaza; and using white phosphorous and other prohibited weapons in the heavily-populated civilian areas of the Strip. Moreover, the Zionist state has still to be held to account for bombing the Associated Press media centre in Gaza.

Without a hint of irony, though, the shameless government in Tel Aviv announced this week that, "Israel supports Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty." The hypocrisy is breathtaking.

Israel's involvement in Ukraine goes beyond mere rhetoric. It has never been too fussy about who it sells weapons to, but this could come back to haunt the Zionist state; the neo-Nazi Azov battalion, which has been on the front line in Ukraine's war with pro-Russia separatists, is armed to the teeth with Israeli weapons. The battalion is one of many volunteer brigades to fight alongside the Ukrainian army in the east of the country, and has a reputation for brutality.




Tensions between Russia and Ukraine rise on the shared border – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/Middle East Monitor]

There are private concerns in the corridors of power that if the fighting against the separatists comes to an end, then the next big threat to the Ukrainian government and the state itself will be the far-right extremists in the Azov battalion. Their openly neo-Nazi leanings are there for everyone to see. Many of the Azov fighters are anti-Semitic, Holocaust-deniers and admirers of Adolf Hitler, but we already know that Israel is more tolerant of the odious views of those who buy its weapons than, say, promoters of peace and anti-war supporters like the former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in Britain.

The current Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer is leading a witch hunt against party members who are pro-Palestine and anti-Israel, but has no qualms about backing Ukraine, neo-Nazi warts and all, just like his warmongering rival, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. They have both adopted pro-Ukraine postures this week, and yet have not only kept quiet about apartheid Israel's ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians, but also declared their active support for the Zionist state.

READ: Putin's aggression would be impossible without the US creating a world safe for autocracy

When we look at the West's complicity over the humanitarian disasters in Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Libya and Palestine, it's no surprise that Starmer and Johnson have toed the Washington line like the dutiful lapdogs that they are. All of the aforementioned Muslim countries are victims of NATO aggression directly or indirectly; and all are victims of US imperialism.

This isn't about taking sides or picking Putin over Biden; I am no fan of either. It's about peace, which, from where I'm standing, looks to be a million miles away from both the White House and the Kremlin.

Clearly, the US has not lost its appetite for war, despite its humiliating defeat at the hands of the Taliban in Afghanistan last year. Indeed, the American economy thrives on conflicts around the world. The US has around 750 military bases in 80 countries, and Biden is happy to surround Russia with NATO bases and NATO-aligned countries. Putin has grown increasingly agitated about this, and has made his feelings known. Back in December, the Russian leader initiated talks with America to diffuse the situation. The response from Washington was to kick sand in Putin's face, the least diplomatic course of action when dealing with a leader whose ego is the size of Red Square. But maybe Biden planned it this way.

In the meantime, Palestinians can only look on in despair and wonder what it will take for the West to stop, pause and consider their territorial rights and sovereignty with the same compassion shown to the people of Ukraine. If, as former Prime Minister Theresa May said in Westminster the other day, it is important to stand up to Russia in "defence of democracy", then surely that noble principle should be applied everywhere, Israeli-occupied Palestine included. It is hypocritical to do otherwise.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
If Ukraine can have an international brigade, why can't Palestine and Syria?

February 27, 2022 

A Ukrainian soldier is seen behind tires in Zhuliany neighbourhood of Kyiv during Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine, on February 26, 2022 [Aytaç Ünal / Anadolu Agency]


Yvonne Ridley
yvonneridley
February 27, 2022 


Britain's Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has said that she will support anyone who wants to go to Ukraine to join an international brigade of fighters against Russia. She described such a mission as taking part in a battle "for freedom and democracy".

I can't help but wonder, though, about those who've left British shores to fight overseas only to have their citizenships revoked by an unsympathetic British government. The only difference I can see between those who want to fight in Ukraine and those who want to fight in Palestine, Syria, Libya or Iraq is skin colour and faith.

There are at least 100,000 Muslims living in Kyiv. Is Truss going to support their British and European brothers and sisters who want to go out to fight alongside them in the Ukrainian capital? She told the BBC on Sunday morning that it was up to people to make their own decisions in such situations; she also said that the Ukrainians are fighting for freedom, "not just for Ukraine but for the whole of Europe."

Why, I wonder, are democracy and freedom more precious in Europe than, say, in Syria, where dictator Bashar Al-Assad is trying to crush the last vestiges of a revolution in which Syrians dared to dream about their own democratic state? And why are Palestinians who resist Israel's brutal occupation demonised as "terrorists" and shunned by the "democratic" and apparently freedom-loving West? I know many people who would like to go out and join the Palestinians in defence of their legitimate rights as they fight for survival against apartheid Israel.

As Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urges foreign nationals "to join the defence of security in Europe", his government is ready to arm an "international" legion of volunteer foreigners who wish to join the Ukrainian army in its fight against Russian forces. "This is not just Russia's invasion of Ukraine," he pointed out on his official website. "This is the beginning of a war against Europe. Against European unity."

Palestinian leaders have made similar statements about securing the future of Islam's third holiest site, the Noble Sanctuary of Al-Aqsa in Jerusalem, which is under attack by Israeli occupation forces, including illegal settlers. If an international call was made for millions of Muslims across the West to protect Al-Aqsa from the murderous designs of the Israelis, would Foreign Secretary Liz Truss approve? Somehow, I doubt it. As I wrote a couple of days ago, "The crisis in Ukraine exposes the hypocrisy of Israel and its Zionist allies." Among the latter stands Truss and the government in which she has a senior role.

"Everyone who wants to join the defence of security in Europe and the world may come and stand shoulder to shoulder with Ukrainians against the invaders of the 21st Century," said Zelenskyy. Now imagine that Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh — whose democratic election as Palestinian Prime Minister in 2006 was rejected by those same Zionist allies — issued such an invitation to Muslims around the world, and Britain in particular, to protect the people of occupied Palestine from Israel and its settler-colonialism. Apartheid, remember, is akin to a crime against humanity, and the annexation of territory through military action is illegal; Israel is guilty of both.

Moreover, some of the settlers and soldiers who bolster and enforce Israel's occupation of Palestine hold British and other European passports. But hey, that's OK it seems, because they are white and Jewish, while those who oppose them are "only" Arabs.

Read: Russia sees military coordination with Israel on Syria continuing

In 2019, I visited an amputee clinic where traumatised Syrian children were being taught to walk again. I met British doctors, teachers and aid workers who have had their citizenship revoked because they were working in rebel-held Idlib. Unable to make a legal challenge against the British government's decision from a war zone, they are now in a legal black hole.

They didn't pick up weapons or go out to fight; they simply wanted to help the ordinary Syrian people in their struggle for democracy and the best way they could do this was by using the skills that they have. They must all be wondering why the British government which stripped them of their passports is ready to back those looking to do the same in Ukraine, and even take up arms there. Can there be any more blatant example of hypocrisy, Islamophobia and racism than that being displayed by Liz Truss and, presumably, her boss Boris Johnson and their cabinet colleagues?

When people are in trouble it is human nature for people to want to help in any way they can. I would not dream of criticising anyone who wants to join an international brigade to help Ukrainians in their struggle. But if that's OK, then it should also be OK for others to go to help the people of Palestine, Chechnya, Libya, Syria, Yemen, occupied Kashmir and other trouble spots.

In the 1930s, around 60,000 young people left North America and Europe to join the International Brigade, groups of foreign volunteers who fought on the Republican side against the fascist Nationalist forces during the Spanish Civil War (1936–39). What is rarely reported is that while many left Britain to fight for the republicans, there was also a few who fought alongside the fascists. Neither faced any problems when they returned to Britain.

While Truss and UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace insist that British soldiers will not be sent to Ukraine to fight, the position of British citizens who decide to join the international brigade needs to be clarified. The foreign secretary needs to explain why the defence of democracy in Ukraine is acceptable, but standing up against tyrants, dictators and authoritarian regimes elsewhere is not. We have a right to know. More to the point, so do the people of occupied Palestine and Syria. If the Ukrainians can be helped by an international brigade, why can't they?

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
Ukraine war threatens to make bread a luxury in the Middle East

February 28, 2022 

A worker prepares bread at a bakery in the war-torn Yemeni capital 
 Sanaa, on February 28, 2022 
[MOHAMMED HUWAIS/AFP via Getty Images]

Thomson Reuters Foundation
February 28, 2022 

The war in Ukraine may be unfolding several thousand miles away, but 32-year-old Ilham fears her family will feel its consequences on their dinner table in Yemen.

Conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which provide more than a quarter of the world's wheat exports, has sent global prices to a 13-year high – causing alarm in Middle Eastern nations that rely on imports for staples, from flatbreads to couscous.

"It's already too expensive for us, so I can't imagine what will happen when the prices jump even further," llham told the Thomson Reuters Foundation, asking not to give her full name.

Elsewhere in the food-poor region, shoppers in Lebanon tried to stock up on bread early to avoid higher prices, while bakers in Egypt said they were already feeling the pinch of higher flour costs.

Across the Middle East and North Africa, fallout on food prices from the war in Ukraine could drive millions more into "food poverty", said the World Food Program's senior regional spokesperson, Abeer Etefa.

The region is particularly vulnerable to rises in the cost of basic foods due to inadequate local production and high rates of poverty, with anger over food costs fuelling the "Arab Spring" protests in 2011.

OPINION: Russian-Ukrainian war: How does it affect Egypt?

Yemen, which is almost entirely dependent on food imports, buys at least 27 per cent of its wheat from Ukraine and 8 per cent from Russia, a senior financial official and a wheat importer said, asking not to be named.

Seven years of conflict have battered Yemen's economy, hitting employment and more than doubling food prices – leaving more than half of the nation's 30 million people hungry, according to the International Rescue Committee.

Late last year, funding shortfalls forced the World Food Programme (WFP) to shrink assistance to eight million Yemenis, risking a "looming hunger catastrophe".

The prospect of a further surge in international wheat prices means Yemenis could be more vulnerable than ever, said Afrah Al-Zouba, who heads a Yemeni non-profit working on improving aid access.

"Of course, this will put people in danger," Zouba said.

"It's never been a problem of food availability. It's a problem of affordability."

'FOOD POVERTY'


Egypt, often the world's largest wheat importer, brings in 90 per cent of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, and government officials have been closely watching the conflict with an eye on local food prices.

A third of Egypt's 100 million people were living below the poverty line even before the COVID-19 pandemic struck, according to the World Bank, and the state sets caps on bread prices to make it affordable.

But as international prices surge to their highest level since 2008, Egyptian Prime Minister, Moustafa Madbouly, said on 16 February that the government will raise the price of a subsidised loaf of bread for the first time since the 1980s.


READ: Syria regime to ration wheat due to Russia invasion of Ukraine

"I confirm that (the rise) will be applied, but in a way through which we ensure that the neediest people are not harmed," Madbouly told a news conference, without providing further details.

Egyptian bakers were already feeling the sting of more expensive flour and cooking oil supplies. Russia and Ukraine are also major suppliers of sunflower oil.

Hussein Bagoury, 33, who owns a bakery in the east of the capital, Cairo, said his business had been hurt by a 50 per cent jump in flour prices and a smaller spike in cooking oil prices.

"This is making us lose a lot of money because our costs increased," he said.

A STRUGGLE AHEAD

The prospect of a further jump in food prices spooked shoppers in Lebanon, where a deep economic crisis and sharp currency devaluation that began in 2019 has already put many basic goods out of reach for millions of people.

Some tried to stock up at the weekend, in anticipation that prices would go up in the days ahead.

"I went to several bakeries and it's almost impossible to get more than one bread bundle," said Fady Moussa, a resident of the capital, Beirut, who was out trying to buy bread on Sunday.

"It feels like Lebanon is the one at war," he said.


Economy Minister, Amin Salam said at a 25 February news conference that the country would explore alternative supply options due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which provides about 60 per cent of Lebanon's wheat imports.

He said the country only had enough stocks to meet a month's requirements.

A devastating August 2020 explosion at Beirut port also obliterated an adjacent grain silo complex – the country's largest storage space for wheat and other grains.

Though wheat imports are subsidised and the government caps bread prices, bread has already become a luxury for some Lebanese.

Bakeries set rations on how many loaves a customer can buy, and in some cases set a separate "black market" rate for extra loaves.

"We will either have no wheat at all and, if we do, the prices will be unaffordable," said Ghassan Abou Habib, who owns one of the country's main bakery chains, Wooden Bakery.

"It's going to be a struggle."

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
NOT A MAOIST ANALYSIS
Russia’s Military Looks Like The Ultimate Paper Tiger

ByDenis Kosta
Russian Military Tank Firing. Image Credit - Creative Commons.


Russia has a problem: Its military is not as strong as the world thought – Russian President Putin’s savage and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has revealed that despite the propaganda the Russian military has not significantly improved since its poor showing in Georgia in 2008.

In fact it could be argued that regardless of shiny new toys, the Russian military is still the same largely incompetent force that bungled its way through two Chechen wars and an invasion of Georgia and whose faults were already on show in Syria and elsewhere.

As such it can be confidently argued that Russian conventional forces do not pose any threat to NATO, though their nuclear arsenal remains a massive threat to the world.

Inability to achieve air superiority


The first sin of the Russian military was the complete inability of the Russian air force to achieve air superiority. As of the fourth day of the conflict, the Ukrainian air force is still very much active to the point it is being resupplied with additional air to air missiles for its Su-27 and MiG-29 fighter aircraft. The Ukrainian drone force is also in action, taking out Russian convoys.

The reason appears to be the fact that the Russians have not caused considerable damage to Ukrainian airbases. For example, satellite imagery of the Kulbakino airbase reveals only minor damage on the flight line as well as a hit on an aircraft graveyard. The rest of the airbase appears unscathed including hangars and from what can be seen, runways. As such the 299 Tactical Aviation Brigade is still very active, losing one Su-25 on 27 February.

Russian efforts appear rather pitiful, especially when compared to equivalent American military efforts in the recent past. For example, in 2017, the US military fired 59 Tomahawks at a single airbase in Syria in a single night in a limited strike. Meanwhile, the US has confirmed Russia has fired only over 160 missiles in the opening salvo across a wide variety of targets. As the limited damage at Kulbankino revealed, such a low number of missiles is insufficient against such a large country with a large military. Indeed, if the US strike on Syria is applied to Ukraine and taking into account Ukraine has at least 13 active airbases, the Russians required over 760 missiles to substantially damage Ukrainian airbases and that is not taking into account other targets such as command centers and air defense units.

It is also a condemnation of Russia’s fighter fleet and the much-vaunted Russian air defense systems which have been unable to deter Ukrainian activities. Indeed there have not been any confirmed reports of air to air combat despite rumors of a mythical Ghost of Kyiv.

Russian air defenses seem to be struggling to deal with Ukraine’s small fleet of Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2s which have scored numerous kills against Russian forces. Russian air defenses did not even manage to stop a Ukrainian OTR-21 missile strike on Millerovo airbase on 25 February.

Inability to suppress air defenses

In addition to being unable to neutralize the Ukrainian air force, the Russians have also been unable to neutralize the Ukrainian air defense network. Before the war, the Ukrainians possessed a dense if somewhat dated air defense network featuring various versions of more modern S-300 and Buk M1 as well as older S125, S200, OSA-KM, and numerous other systems.

There have been unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian air defenses shooting down everything from Su-25 ground attack aircraft to Il-76 transport planes as well as confirmed shoot downs of Ka-52 helicopters. It is also plausible Ukrainian air defenses shot down one of their own Su-27 jets over Kyiv on 25 February.

This may explain the relative or complete absence of long-range heavy Russian bombers ala Tu-22M which have been used in a permissive environment in Syria and more hostile environments in Georgia where at least one was lost.

Incompetence on the ground


The area where the Russians have exhibited the most incompetence is on the ground. From the start of the campaign Russian formations have exhibited little or no military competence.

In some cases, Russian platoons surrendered on the first day having blundered into Ukrainian resistance. Russian battlefield reconnaissance seems to be particularly poor with numerous units simply driving into ambushes. This is unimaginable in an era where drones can provide round-the-clock battlefield coverage as well as rapid-fire support. Indeed only in 2020, the Azerbaijani military managed to defeat a heavily entrenched Armenian force in difficult terrain using drones.

Russian rear echelon units appear to be completely unprotected against drone or rear-guard attacks with artillery, logistics, engineering, and other non-front-line units being attacked often.

Russian special forces appear to be attacking without any support as can be seen from the initial failed attack on the Hostomel airbase where the first Russian airborne attack was destroyed. The presence of Ukrainian aircraft and the complete absence of Russian airpower is another inditement of the poor performance of the Russian air force and poor coordination between various arms of the Russian military. In other instances groups of infiltrators in Kyiv have also been destroyed.


Image of Russian-Made TOS-1 Weapons System. Image Credit: Creative Commons.


President Putin watches the Zapad 2021 joint strategic exercises of the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.


Russian tank in Red Square in 2021. Image Credit: Russian Federation.

As such Russian forces have not managed to capture one major city though Kyiv, Mauripol, and Kharkiv were both under siege by day 4. Russian casualties are unknown but assumed to be heavy.

No surprises

Most of this should not come as a surprise.

Despite Putin’s new military toys, the Russian military has suffered from bad morale and corruption. Even Russian junior officers live in squalid conditions in an army that affords little or no respect to them.

A lot of the poor tactical training could already be seen in Syria and elsewhere. For example, the nominally private but heavily connected to Russian military Wagner mercenary group has suffered large casualties in combat operations, especially in Syria. In 2018 American forces annihilated a combined Syrian/Wagner force using artillery and helicopters without any American casualties and only one allied soldier wounded.

Training for Wagner is conducted by the Russian military and especially with the 10th Special Purpose Brigade of Russia’s GRU. It can thus be assumed that this training is similar to that provided to Russian troops. If the performance of Wagner is anything to go by, then it can be assumed Russian troops would not be much better and indeed the Ukrainian experience is massive evidence of this inherent incompetence.

The performance of Russia’s air forces and air defenses in Syria and Libya indicated many issues with Russian systems. In Syria, the Russian air force relied mainly on short-range unguided weapons. Delivering these unguided weapons requires the aircraft to fly over the enemy and thus over potential air defenses. ISIS did not have integrated air defenses so Russian aircraft could attack without much risk. As mentioned Ukraine has a rather sophisticated air defense system so attacking using short-range weapons entails much more risk to aircraft attacking using old-fashioned unguided attacks more suited to World War II than the modern battlefield.



Russian Military Artillery Piece. Image Credit: Creative Commons.


Russian President Putin with Russian Military Forces. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Russian air defenses have also proven to be inadequate against drones and stand-off munitions in Libya, Syria as well as Nagorno-Karabakh. In Syria, Israel has regularly avoided the much-vaunted S-300 systems with the Syrians apparently admitting the Russian systems were useless against Israeli cruise missiles.

Additionally, Sweden’s Defence Research Agency has reported that even the latest S-400 systems are overhyped and nowhere near as capable as claimed. Russia has deployed S400s against Ukraine though, given Ukraine’s air force activity, it is evident these have not performed as promised.

Good news for NATO

Wargames in 2014-15 showed the Russians would overwhelm NATO forces in Baltic states in 36-60 hours. An exercise in Poland showed the country would not last a week against a Russian onslaught. The Ukrainian experience means all this needs to be reconsidered.

Given Russia’s pathetic performance against a supposedly much inferior opponent, it cannot be seen how Russian forces would prevail over NATO. If the Russian forces can’t overwhelm an air force with 120 aging fighters how are they to overwhelm large modern fleets of F-22s, F-35s, Eurofighters, and other advanced combat aircraft supported by AWACS and other advanced intelligence gathering sources as well as large numbers of drones?

One cannot see Russian forces advancing at all against NATO without air superiority. And the apparent weakness of their air defense systems especially against stealth aircraft and drones would result in Russian ground forces being annihilated.

Against NATO, Russia would quickly have to consider whether to go nuclear, something it may already be doing in Ukraine.


Denis Kosta studied political science and international business at the University of Tasmania, Australia. He works in health business management but maintains a very strong interest in military and international affairs.
The war on Syria emboldened Russia and its relentless targeting of civilians in Ukraine

March 1, 2022 

Damaged buildings in a residential area after the Assad Regime carried 
out air strikes in Idlib, Syria on 28 August 2019 [Muhammed Said/Anadolu Agency]


Amelia Smith
amyinthedesert
March 1, 2022 

In 2012, six months into the protests in Syria, activists asked for UN observers to be embedded with demonstrators to stop the Assad regime shooting indiscriminately into the crowd. They called for a no-fly zone, the same international protection from NATO that led to the overthrow of Libyan dictator, Muammar Gaddafi. They were given neither. A decade of brutality later and over 200,000 civilians have been killed in the Syrian war, around 25,000 of whom are children.

The scale of destruction in Syria would not have been possible without Russian President Vladimir Putin's support for Bashar Al-Assad, whose power was waning considerably by 2015 when Russia entered the war. Together with Iran, the three powers bombed hospitals, schools, and markets and took back swathes of territory that had been captured by the opposition.

Now, Russia has turned its attention to its neighbour, Ukraine, in a conflict playing out that has striking similarities to its war on Syria. Reports indicate that in Ukraine, Russia has used cluster munitions to kill and injure civilians and damage schools and hospitals. In February 2016, Human Rights Watch said that Russia had used cluster munitions in Syria at least 14 times over two weeks, killing 37 people.

In one set of images, mothers and pregnant women hide in the basement of a makeshift maternity hospital in Kyiv after a doctor moved his patients there to escape from Russian shelling. In the summer of 2016, Assad and Putin were blamed for hitting two maternity hospitals in Idlib Province. Residents in Ukraine have been asked to take shelter underground to avoid being hit by stray bullets, evoking memories of the thousands of children hiding in basements in 2018 in eastern Ghouta after they endured 48 hours of air strikes and artillery shells.

According to a leaked document from the Russian Ministry of Health and reported in The Daily Mail, military chiefs fear Putin will order a chemical weapons attack as the fighting continues in Ukraine. Several Western officials have expressed serious concern about what would happen if Putin uses thermobarbaric bombs, which have inside a mix of fuel and chemicals, on Ukraine.



Russian military tanks advance in Donetsk, Ukraine on 24 February 2022
 [Stringer/Anadolu Agency]

In Aleppo, Russia dropped thermobarbaric bombs, said to be the most powerful explosive besides nuclear weapons, and described as a phosphorous-like substance that causes severe and fatal burns, and ballistic missiles, yet has never been held to account. In a chilling statement in 2018, Russian officials gloated that they had tested more than 200 weapons in Syria.

A UN report released two years ago investigated atrocities in Syria and concluded that Russia had direct involvement in war crimes for the indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas. Four days before Russia invaded Ukraine, Human Rights Watch said they believed the "war crimes strategy" could take place again in Ukraine. "We are deeply concerned that this war crimes strategy (could) be replicated in the case of Ukraine should armed conflict break out there," director Kenneth Roth said.

READ: Europe's dilemma over the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Caught between economic interests and war

As history repeats itself, the frustration in Syria's Idlib is palpable, where locals have not only expressed solidarity with Ukraine but called on the international community to take meaningful collective action to avoid further civilian deaths. On Monday, 40 Ukrainian civil society groups called on Western countries for emergency medical equipment, the supply of technology to support human rights groups and to establish safe zones inside the country for internally displaced people.

For the safe zone to be implemented air power would be required but, so far, NATO has said it is not willing to enter into a direct conflict with the Russian Air Force. In Syria, the call for a no-fly zone over the country became one of the most long-running debates of the entire war and is still today held up as the example of what the West could have done to stop the slaughter of civilians, but did not.

The size and quantity of weapons and equipment being sent to Ukraine is raising questions. Some Syrians have asked why, at the beginning of their revolution, requests for anti-aircraft missiles were ignored, whilst several European countries have already sent consignments to Ukraine. Relentless aerial bombardments and shelling were the modus operandi of the Syrian forces, backed up by Russia, and the lack of anti-aircraft missiles kept the Syrians civilians defenceless.

It is also impossible to ignore the speed at which the West has responded to the Ukrainian resistance, within days of Russia's invasion when, for six months, Syrian protesters received little more than statements of solidarity. If the West had acted faster in Syria, Russia would not feel so emboldened today to strike so many civilians in Ukraine. Why, Syrians have asked, is Russia an enemy in Europe but not in Syria? That said, Putin's defeat now would change how he operates in Syria. One thing is for sure – wherever it happens, war comes at an incredible cost, especially to civilians.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.
China spy think tank says Russia sanctions will backfire


Ukrainian soldiers take positions outside a military facility as two cars burn, in a street in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022. Russian troops stormed toward Ukraine's capital Saturday, and street fighting broke out as city officials urged residents to take shelter. (File photo: AP)

Russia Ukraine conflict

Bloomberg
Published: 01 March ,2022: 

A Chinese research organization that advises President Xi Jinping says Russia can weather the sanctions it’s been hit with in recent days, and predicts the US and European allies will wind up suffering for supporting Ukraine.

Russia has largely adapted to dealing with punitive financial measures since 2014, when it was penalized for seizing Crimea, Ma Xue, an associate researcher at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, wrote in an article published on social media Tuesday.

Cutting off Russian banks from the SWIFT money messaging system will wind up hurting Europe roughly as much, according to Ma, whose research body is linked to the Ministry of State Security, China’s civilian intelligence agency.

Ma added that the US could also incur major costs in the future providing economic and humanitarian aid to allies, and that Europe could be destabilized by large numbers of fleeing Ukrainians.

“If the Ukraine refugee crisis is not properly handled, this will be conducive for Russia to sow hatred and sabotage NATO,” Ma wrote.

“The fierce debate on refugee problems inside Europe could also damage its unity at crucial moments.”

Ma’s views on sanctions contrasts with the early reactions to the measures, which included cutting off the Russian central bank from its pile of foreign exchange. That move sent the ruble tumbling the most since the 1990s.

A slew of foreign companies, including BP Plc and Shell Plc, are leaving the world’s No. 11 economy over the financial and reputational risks, and Russian industrial-metal exports have sunk as commodity buyers and financiers pull back.

Why SWIFT Ban Is Such a Potent Sanction on Russia: QuickTake

Still, China could provide some support for Russia to keep the punishments from biting too hard. Chinese companies are expected to scoop up discounted Russian oil if sanctions deter other buyers, traders have said.

It could also provide a financial lifeline because the People’s Bank of China has a multi-billion-dollar currency swap with its counterpart in Moscow, allowing the nations to provide liquidity to businesses so they can continue trading.

Russia has also worked to remove the dollar’s hold over its financial system in recent years -- selling most of its US Treasuries in 2018 -- as it girded for potential sanctions.

 'I voted for peace, not a war': Russian politicians break ranks with Kremlin to condemn Ukraine invasion

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Ukraine in fierce fight against advancing Russian forces

The United Nations said more than 150,000 Ukrainians had fled for Poland, Moldova and other neighboring countries and warned the number could grow to 4 million if fighting escalates.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is proving so unpopular that several Russian MPs are withdrawing their support for the Kremlin.

The State Duma, the lower house of Russian parliament, last week voted to recognise the independence of eastern Ukraine’s separatist regions. President Vladimir Putin signed the motion into law on Monday.

READ MORE:
Ukraine invasion: Is letting a sleeping dog lie always the right answer?
Ukraine's President refuses to flee, urges the country to ‘stand firm’
Ukrainian couple spends first day as newlyweds fighting the Russian occupation

Two days later, Russia’s upper house of parliament gave the green light to sending Russian troops “abroad”. However, it was not clear until Thursday morning that Putin had ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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EU to 'paralyse' assets of Russian central bank

European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen says Brussels will propose to freeze the assets of the Russian central bank, in a major escalation of sanctions against Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine.

Mikhail Matveyev, a member of the State Duma, called on the Kremlin on Saturday to stop the invasion.

“By voting to recognise the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, I voted for peace, not a war. For Russia to become a shield for the Donbas, not for bombing Kyiv,” he said.

Another MP, Communist Oleg Smolin, said on Friday he was “shocked” by the invasion and was sorry for the loss of life.

Their statements came amid a myriad of anti-war petitions from Russian teachers, scientists and doctors.

A famed Soviet photographer and author called on Putin and his entourage to retire in a video clip posted on Novaya Gazeta’s website.

“Why don’t you all have some rest? You did such a great job. You all are pension age. It’s time to retire,” said Kyiv-born 83-year-old Yuri Rost.

AP
Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine has proven unpopular with some at home, including several MPs.

Even some of the most Kremlin-friendly pundits began to publicly question the rationale behind Moscow unleashing a war on a sovereign nation.

Andrey Kortunov, director of the Russian International Affairs Council that advises the foreign ministry, told the BBC on Saturday he had not advised Russians officials to launch an invasion and that many in the Russian government were shocked at the decision.

“I would say that many of us in the foreign office were surprised and I would say shocked and I would even say devastated to see what is happening,” he said.

“This is an important red line that was crossed by the Russian leadership and the repercussions are likely to be very significant.”

Russia’s foreign ministry sought to punish some of the country’s most respected journalists for speaking out against the invasion.

Elena Chernenko, a veteran foreign affairs reporter for the Kommersant newspaper who often travelled with Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister, said on Friday she was ejected from his pool for “unprofessionalism”.

Condemnation of the war was spreading across Russian society on Saturday. Architects, doctors and psychiatrists all published their anti-war petitions to add to earlier appeals by representatives of other professions.

Sporadic protests were reported in several Siberian cities, while in Moscow, police sealed off a central square, fearing unrest.

In St Petersburg, activists came to the city’s Piskaryovskoye cemetery, the resting place for the victims of the Siege of Leningrad, where they donned masks depicting skulls and held placards saying: “There are no patriots among the dead.”

Garage Museum of Contemporary Art, Moscow’s major contemporary art foundation, said it would halt work on “all exhibitions until the human and political tragedy that is unfolding in Ukraine has ceased”.

“We cannot support the illusion of normality when such events are taking place,” the museum said in a statement.


SCREENGRAB
Police officers detain a woman in St Petersburg as Russians protested against their country's invasion of Ukraine.

The museum was founded in 2008 by Dasha Zhukova and her then husband Roman Abramovich. On its Facebook page, the museum posted a black square, a symbol of Russia’s burgeoning anti-war movement.

In Moscow and London, several staff at the Russian state-funded news outlet RT reportedly resigned in response to the invasion.

The Moscow Art Theatre, Russia’s legendary drama theatre, has redone the logo on its Facebook page, adding a dove with a peace branch to the seagull from Anton Chekhov’s eponymous play.

For the third consecutive day, Russian state media appeared on Saturday to avoid calling the invasion a “war” and described it as a “special operation in the Donbas”. Their coverage focused on incremental gains made by separatist fighters in the region of eastern Ukraine, propped up by Russian forces.

Russian authorities who on Friday threatened to go after independent media quoting “unofficial” sources in their coverage moved to ban the word “war.”

Russia’s communications watchdog asked 10 media outlets to delete articles containing reports of civilian deaths and air strikes on Ukrainian cities, which according to the Kremlin do “not correspond to reality”.

The watchdog also took issue with the media calling Russia’s military operation “an assault, an invasion or a declaration of war”.

The media outlets that refuse to comply would have their websites blocked and face hefty fines.

Russian officials later on Saturday also appeared to make good on their threats to limit access to social media as Facebook and Twitter were taking longer than usual to load.

The Telegraph