Monday, March 21, 2022

Ukraine says Russian forces violently disperse Kherson protest

Ukrainian armed forced says Russian troops used stun grenades and gunfire to disperse a crowd of hundreds protesters.

Demonstrators, some displaying Ukrainian flags, chant "go home" while walking towards retreating Russian military vehicles at a pro-Ukraine rally amid Russia's invasion, in Kherson, Ukraine March 20, 2022 — Demonstrators, some displaying Ukrainian flags, chant 'go home' while walking towards retreating Russian military vehicles at a pro-Ukraine rally in Kherson [Reuters]

Ukraine’s armed forces have said Russian troops used stun grenades and gunfire to disperse a rally of pro-Ukrainian protesters in the occupied southern city of Kherson.

Video footage showed several hundred protesters in the city’s Freedom Square on Monday running to escape as projectiles landed around them. Loud bangs can be heard and there are clouds of whitish smoke. Gunfire can also be heard.

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“Russian security forces ran up, started throwing stun grenades into the crowd and shooting,” the Ukrainian armed forces’ news service said in a statement, adding that at least one person was wounded but that it was unclear how they received the injuries.

CCTV footage appears to show Russian troops (top, near building) firing stun grenades into a crowd of protesters, some with Ukrainian flags, amid the Russian invasion, along Ushakova Avenue in Kherson — CCTV footage appears to show Russian troops, top, near building, firing stun grenades into a crowd of protesters in Kherson [Reuters]

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba posted a video on Twitter, showing a man with an armband of the Ukrainian flag wounded by gunfire.

Continuous shooting could be heard in the video, which showed blood on the ground and people carrying flags running and rushing to help the man. The person taking the video said the man is a pensioner. The video showed some protesters returning to the square. One man in a black hat strolled back, stopped across the road from Russian troops and stood there on his own, holding a small Ukrainian flag above his head.

Russia did not immediately comment on the incident. Moscow has denied targeting civilians.

A demonstrator gestures as others, displaying Ukrainian flags, chant "go home" and walk towards Russian military vehicles at a pro-Ukraine rally amid Russia's invasion, in Kherson, Ukraine March 20, 2022 — A demonstrator gestures as others, displaying Ukrainian flags, chant ‘go home’ and walk towards Russian military vehicles [Reuters]

Kherson, a city of approximately 250,000 people, is situated near Crimea, a peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 and one of the directions from which Moscow invaded Ukraine late last month.

It was the first big urban centre to fall to Russian forces, with Moscow capturing it within the first week of its invasion.

Since then, groups of residents have staged regular rallies in the centre of Kherson, protesting against the occupation and showing their support for the government in Kyiv by waving Ukrainian flags.

Earlier this month, the Ukrainian authorities said members of Russia’s National Guard had detained more than 400 people in Kherson region for protesting against the occupation. It accused Russia of trying to create a police state there.

Ukraine's democratic socialists say Western leftists should support sending them weapons to fight Russia's 'imperialist aggression'

Charles R. Davis

A couple of Ukraine soldiers hold hands as they walk in the streets of Kyiv on March 18, 2022. FADEL SENNA/AFP via Getty Images

Ukraine's democratic socialists are offering critical support to the centrist Zelenskyy government.

Vladyslav Starodubcev is one of the leaders of the left-wing party Sotsialniy Rukh.
The 19-year-old told Insider that he wants the West to provide weapons to Ukraine.

As a socialist, Vladyslav Starodubcev found plenty to criticize in the "neoliberal" administration of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, like a proposed reform to the country's labor laws that would have made it easier for employers to fire workers for any reason.

But speaking from Kyiv, the sound of artillery fire in the background, the 19-year-old Starodubcev — a leader of the left-wing Sotsіalniy Rukh, or Social Movement, a small party of democratic socialists that has largely focused on grassroots anti-capitalist actions as opposed to electoral politics — said there was no question which side he and comrades were on once Russia launched "this horrible war" in their country.

"I took a decision on the first day of the war that I'm staying," he told Insider. His family chose to escape Ukraine's capital, leaving him alone in their apartment, where he seeks refuge in the living room when cruise missiles are hitting the city. "It's hard to sleep because a rocket can just fire on my building and it can happen in any moment."

But, he added, "I'm staying because I want to take my part in this situation to defend my country, to help people in need. And if Ukraine will be occupied, to resist this occupation."

For him, resisting Russia's invasion means helping distribute humanitarian aid, such as food and medicine. For other socialists, it's "joining the war effort to support the army." And for now, that means supporting the government, Starodubcev praising Zelenskyy for having "united the country" with his media-savvy defiance.

'Russian leftists are less pro-Russian than Western leftists'

Russian Police officers detain a man during an unsanctioned protest rally against the military invasion in Ukraine on March 6, 2022 in Moscow, Russia.

Vladimir Pesnya/Epsilon/Getty Images

That doesn't mean there aren't criticisms — in the besieged city of Mariupol, for example, he thinks the state could and should have done more to prepare the population for a Russian attack, the city being an obvious strategic target, and now a humanitarian disaster.

But he cringes at the response from some on the left, abroad.

While many left-wing parties have condemned the invasion of Ukraine, that condemnation has often been couched in what he sees as excuse-making — in a belief that the Kremlin's war of aggression was provoked by the West, as opposed to being a product of revanchist Russian nationalism.

Just before speaking to Insider, Starodubcev was on a call with members of Podemos, the populist left-wing party in Spain and the junior partner in a ruling coalition with the Socialist Party.

"They pushed this agenda that, 'We're against sending weapons.' They're sabotaging other parties in Spain trying to help Ukrainians — it's just a stupid, very horrific policy," he said.

"They have this idea that Russia is defending against NATO expansion and they just have their reasons to attack — that's plain wrong and stupid. This idea of not sending weapons because it can prolong war is just misunderstanding Russian policies," he said. "Russia's goal here is to install a puppet government and just destroy Ukraine as something sovereign, doing independent policies from the Kremlin. So their argument is just for occupation."

Ironically, or perhaps not, "Russian leftists are less pro-Russian than Western leftists, 100%," Starodubcev said. "They understand their government a lot better than DSA or Podemos or Stop the War Coalition in Britain. They're strongly opposing Putin. They're strongly opposing the war — they're trying to sabotage it."

Socialists in Ukraine are calling for concrete actions, such as canceling the country's foreign debt — now nearly $130 billion, almost 10 times what it was in 2000. That is not controversial among leftists elsewhere.

But what Ukraine needs now is support for the armed struggle against Russian militarism, Starodubcev said.

Ukrainians against 'imperialist aggression'

Iryna Sergeyeva, Ukraine's first female volunteer fighter to get a full military contract of the Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine holds her Kalashnikov machine-gun as she attends a military training in an underground garage that has been converted into a training and logistics base in Kyiv, on March 11, 2022. SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images

"Of course, we are supporting sending arms to Ukrainian resistance and Ukrainian army," he said. "I think that many socialists should push their government to send planes, to send anti-air or anti-tank weapons, to defend the Ukrainian people."

"It's a war of the Ukrainian people against imperialist aggression," he added. "And it's very strange to me, the response of the Western left, which just ignores the fact Ukrainian people are fighting for their lives — for their independence."

Outside Ukraine, cable news and leftist discussion groups have spent an inordinate amount of time debating what Starodubcev and the US government alike see as a nonstarter: a no-fly-zone.

That's a stated demand of Zelenskyy that would entail members of NATO potentially shooting down Russian planes in Ukraine — a direct conflict between nuclear powers.

"I mostly avoid this debate about no-fly-zone because it's really unreal — it won't be happening," Starodubcev said. It's also not necessary, he added, with Zelenskyy asking for it possibly just as a tactic to get what he really wants: the ability to impose one itself.

The country does not need any foreign military boots on the ground or NATO planes in the sky. It "needs fighter jets and anti-air equipment to defend its cities from bombs and rockets," Starodubcev said. "I think that Ukraine can hold — if it would have enough guns."

Staying put to send a message

A placard honors "the heroes who defended Kyiv in 1941."

Vladyslav Starodubcev

In the meantime, he plans to stay put, committed to helping build a socialist Ukraine from the ashes of war.

The left in Ukraine itself is not particularly strong, even if its policies on healthcare and organized labor are popular, and it was made weaker by its popular association with Russia. When Moscow annexed Crimea in 2014, it did so with the support of Ukraine's Communist Party. And while that party is not particularly progressive — combining social conservatism with nostalgia for Stalinism and a Soviet empire — it tarnished the broader left in the eyes of a population that has embraced Ukrainian identity.

That, in part, is why Starodubcev is remaining in Kyiv. It's the right thing to do, he believes (though he does not judge those who have left), but it's also a sort of propaganda of the deed: showing that Ukraine's right-wing nationalists — a real problem, he concedes, made worse by war but overblown by Russian propaganda — do not have a monopoly on patriotism in a time of war.

It's also why he insisted that his real name be published, even if it potentially puts him at risk if Moscow ever does seize the capital.

"In this situation, for our position to be heard, it's better to use our real names because we are trying to [show] that the left is voting for arms delivery" — and standing against a foreign invasion of Ukraine, he said. Besides, "I don't think there's a lot of risk, because Russian intelligence is pretty stupid, I would say."

What happens if President Zelenskyy is killed or captured? Ukraine and allies discuss political succession.

25 Rights NGOs Announce Women's Rights Award Winner: Zarifa Ghafari, Youngest Female Afghan Mayor

Tuesday, 22 March 2022
Press Release: Geneva Summit for Human Rights and Democracy

GENEVA, March 21, 2022 – A coalition of 25 human rights organizations announced today that its prestigious women’s rights award will go this year to Zarifa Ghafari, Afghanistan’s youngest female mayor and a survivor of three Taliban assassination attempts.

Ghafari will receive the Geneva Summit for Human Rights and Democracy's 2022 International Women’s Rights Award at a ceremony on Wednesday, April 6th, where she will address UN diplomats, human rights activists and journalists from around the world attending the 14th annual event.

Ghafari was chosen for her "fearless defence of women's rights in Afghanistan, a cause for which she sacrificed a great deal, and for being an inspiring example for women and girls around the world,” said Hillel Neuer, executive director of United Nations Watch, a co-organizer of the conference along with Liberal International, Human Rights Foundation, and over 20 other human rights groups.

“It is an honor to receive this award on behalf of the unspoken people in Afghanistan, the brave women who sacrificed their lives always for the welfare of the country. The women who are unable to leave their homes, not able to work, who are not able to speak out,” Ghafari said.

“Using this platform I want to spread a message of unity, love and peace to everyone, to the Taliban, to the people and to those who really care about Afghanistan. I want to say please, let's work together, men and women, so we can have a bright today and future,” she continued.

Ghafari was appointed mayor of Maidan Shahr, a city in conservative Taliban territory, in July 2018. Protests and death threats due to her age and gender–she was just 26–delayed her taking up the post but were ultimately unable to dampen her desire to take office.

After assuming her duties she was targeted by the Taliban and IS, surviving three assassination attempts. Her father was killed by Taliban gunmen in retaliation at her refusal to step aside.

As the Taliban swept to power in mid-August, fighters arrived at Ghafari’s home searching for her. She was forced to flee into exile in Germany, describing the moment as “more painful than losing my dad.” She has since bravely returned to Afghanistan to coordinate humanitarian aid efforts.

Previous laureates of the International Women’s Rights Award include Iranian journalist Masih Alinejad, who fights to liberate women from forced hijab laws; Congolese activist Julienne Lusenge, who combats rape as a weapon of war; and Pakistani campaigner Gulalai Ismail, who trains women in human rights leadership.

Ghafari will join other courageous champions of human rights from around the world at this year's Geneva Summit, including dissidents, activists, victims, and relatives of political prisoners from Cuba, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and Nicaragua, who will testify on the human rights situation in their countries.

The global gathering is acclaimed as a one-stop opportunity to hear from and meet front-line human rights advocates, many of whom have personally suffered imprisonment and torture. “It’s a focal point for dissidents worldwide,” said Neuer.

The annual conference will be held on the heels of the U.N. Human Rights Council’s main annual session, which includes China, Cuba and Russia as members.

Videos of past speaker testimonies are available at the Geneva Summit’s YouTube channel.

Admission to this year’s April 6 Summit is free and open to the public, but registration is mandatory. The conference will also be available via live webcast.

UN Expert: Myanmar People Betrayed With ‘Vague Declarations’ And ‘Tedious, Endless Wait’ For Action

Tuesday, 22 March 2022
Press Release: UN Special Procedures - Human Rights

War crimes, crimes against humanity committed daily, says Tom Andrews

GENEVA (21 March 2022) – In the face of what he described as war crimes and crimes against humanity in Myanmar, a UN human rights expert today said the victims of these crimes see the international community’s failure to take strong, coordinated action as a betrayal.

“War crimes and crimes against humanity are being committed every day with impunity by the military junta of Myanmar,” Tom Andrews, the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar, told the Human Rights Council in Geneva.

“The people of Myanmar have been told that the world has a ‘responsibility to protect,’ victims of atrocity crimes, including crimes against humanity and war crimes. As the military junta escalates its ruthless attacks on the people of Myanmar, the people of Myanmar see only endless expressions of concern from the international community, vague declarations that something should be done and a tedious, endless wait for a consensus to act.

“For nearly 14 months, this body and other UN bodies have held meetings, issued statements and passed non-binding resolutions. Some Member States have sanctioned individuals and entities linked to the Myanmar military junta. For the people of Myanmar, these are welcome but insufficient steps to hold to account those responsible for relentless attacks on the people of Myanmar that continue at this very moment.”

Andrews pointed to international action in light of the crisis in Ukraine as a standard by which its response to the crisis in Myanmar can be measured: “Those responsible for the attacks against the people of Ukraine faced severe targeted sanctions personally, and their country’s central bank was sanctioned even as foreign currency reserves were frozen,” he said. “In the space of four days Member States of the United Nations summoned the political will to take tangible action.”

Andrews said the military junta had murdered more than 1,600 civilians, detained more than 10,000, displaced more than half a million, destroyed more than 4,500 homes since the start of this year, spread armed conflict to regions previously at peace, and continued to systematically oppress and persecute the Rohingya in Rakhine State.

“It is clear to me that the generals responsible for these escalating horrors are guilty of crimes against humanity, including the crimes of murder, enslavement, displacement and forcible transfer, enforced disappearance, torture, rape and sexual violence,” Andrews said.

“I also believe that junta forces have committed war crimes including willful killing, destruction of property, torture and inhumane treatment, pillaging, rape, and displacement of civilians, among other crimes.”

In a report to the Council, Andrews highlighted the cost of the junta’s attacks on the people of Myanmar: “The military junta has driven Myanmar into a humanitarian catastrophe marked by a crumbling health infrastructure, half the nation falling into poverty, rampant inflation, and the cruel and outrageous blocking of the delivery of aid to those in desperate need.”

The UN expert expressed his outrage and horror regarding the junta’s attacks on children. “Children are being targeted and killed even as they run with their parents for safety. More than 100 have been murdered since the coup was launched last year. More than 100 children are gone, victims of the military junta’s ruthlessness, brutality, and cowardice.

“As members of this Human Rights Council, a body that can serve as the conscience of the United Nations, I hope that most, if not all, of you are horrified and outraged as well.” Andrews added that nearly one million children have missed routine immunizations; this alone could result in the deaths of 33,000 children this year.”

Andrews implored the Council and its Member States to “stand with and for the people of Myanmar with not only words, but even more importantly, with action. Because for growing numbers of men, women and children in Myanmar, it is a matter of life and death.”

Mr. Thomas Andrews (United States of America) is the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Myanmar. A former member of the US Congress from Maine, Andrews is a Robina Senior Human Rights Fellow at Yale Law School and an Associate of Harvard University’s Asia Center. He has worked with the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs and parliamentarians, NGOs and political parties in Cambodia, Indonesia, Algeria, Croatia, Serbia, Ukraine and Yemen. He has been a consultant for the National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma and the Euro-Burma Network and has run advocacy NGOs including Win Without War and United to End Genocide.

Economic security: A need for a renewed global effort

Amongst the tough lessons learnt by companies, nations and alliances from the pandemic has been the fragility of economies and supply chains in absorbing shocks.

EXPERT COMMENT

CHATHMAN HOUSE

21 MARCH 2022

Theo Beal
Richard and Susan Hayden Academy Fellow at the Queen Elizabeth II Academy for Leadership in International Affairs, Asia-Pacific Programme

Despite the significant private sector successes in keeping products supplied globally, a reassessment of preparedness has intertwined with the pre-existing sentiment of cautiousness towards external economic threats in the 21st century, heightened by the US-China trade war in 2018 and 2019.

This has led to the increasing appearance of national ‘economic security’ in the lexicon of global administrations, certain to be amplified by the impact of the ongoing war in Ukraine on trade and supply in key energy and agricultural sectors.

In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan’s new prime minister Fumio Kishida has established a dedicated Minister for Economic Security and is in the process of legislating a landmark Economic Security Bill.

Similarly, Australia has set up an Office of Supply Chain Resilience within their government infrastructure and a regional Supply Chain Resilience Initiative partnership with India and Japan to minimize supply chain vulnerabilities that could adversely impact their economic security.

However, this is now a truly global concern. The 2021 UK presidency of the G7 argued ‘for a step-change in global economic governance’ with a renewed focus on the collective management of economic and supply chain risks.

The concept of ‘economic security’ encompasses a broad set of interconnected issues and elements, such as investment screening, anti-coercion instruments research integrity, and supply chain resilience. Focusing on supply chain resilience, there are three fundamental issues to consider.

1. A collective understanding of economic security

Transparency is required between like-minded countries as to their specific definitions of economic security and the strategic policies that underpin it. This will assist in the creation of a clearer framework to facilitate cooperation on the issue where policies overlap.

Transparency is required between like-minded countries as to their specific definitions of economic security and the strategic policies that underpin it.

Difficulty lies in national economic security regimes requiring a balance of defensive and offensive policy design dependent on the specific country condition. Primary factors in building strategies are national security concerns and competitive advantage in certain trade sectors.

Japan, for example, recognizes the tension between the protection of their assets and supply chains against vulnerabilities (through non-disclosure of patents and strengthening of core infrastructure) and simultaneously remaining an active member of a thriving liberalized trading system.

Similarly, the United States has stressed a willingness to work with partners to ‘strengthen and diversify the entire supply chain ecosystem over the long term’ whilst being explicit that self-protection from the threats of China is central to their defensive economic security concerns for supply chain resilience and strengthening trade rules against perceived unfair foreign trade practices.

2. Diplomatic and sustainable diversification of supply chains

Redesigning and diversifying global supply chains to reduce reliance on single sources of production is central to the mitigations that countries are exploring to enhance their economic security.

This process triggers diplomatic tension where nations are trying to ‘wean off’ reliance on geopolitical adversaries in critical sectors. Most notably in reserves of rare earth minerals for semiconductors (vital to the production of numerous high-tech products) dominated by China, which is explicitly mentioned in the strategies of critical and sensitive economic areas from Japan, the United States and the United Kingdom’s Integrated Review.

It is imperative that diversification is undertaken with consideration of sustainability and environmental impacts and whether circular economy principles of recycling and material reuse can be embedded.

Diversification leads to approaches such as the establishment of redundant production capability and stockpiling of products that can protect against future shocks. However, it is worth noting that adapting product supply to multiple sources can make risk management and mitigation more challenging.

Secondly, it is imperative that this is undertaken with consideration of sustainability and environmental impacts and whether circular economy principles of recycling and material reuse can be embedded.

Meaningful private sector engagement by governments is vital to the delivery and continuous improvement of supply chain diversification. It’s necessary for governments at both national and international levels to define their role in regulating public-private partnerships as economies attempt to concurrently protect themselves (e.g. to mitigate against threats such as cyberattacks) and grow (e.g. through the utilization of technological advancement).

3. The role of multilateral institutions

There is consensus amongst global powers that multilateral engagement is beneficial for protection against supply chain vulnerabilities and successful import and export diversification.

Amidst the crowd of international institutions, clarity is required about how they will each play specific and complementary roles in achieving economic security goals, particularly to what extent they can broker agreements between competing powers.

Different preferences have been shown for impactful dialogue from multilateral institutions. As one of their leading members, the United States has unsurprisingly cited the benefits of the G7 forum and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) group with India, Japan and Australia. Whereas the United Kingdom have considered the OECD as an appropriate coordinating organization for developing multilateral approaches to economic resilience.

Transparency and information sharing between nations is the first step in the journey towards meaningful international cooperation on economic security.

Effective trade coordination is paramount in the journey towards economic security. Questions remain as to whether the World Trade Organization is able to sufficiently foster a collaborative environment between members and consequently adapt trade policy.

Amendment to free trade agreements at the bilateral and regional levels may be more effective in sustainably increasing export and import diversification for member countries. The UK’s recent application for membership of CPTPP is considerably driven by the economic security benefits of free trade partnership.

Transparency and information sharing between nations is the first step in the journey towards meaningful international cooperation on economic security. This is critical in avoiding the creation of protectionist economic weapon for nations to deploy against rivals.

Instead, installing economic tools underpinned by legitimate security concerns that both strengthen supply chains and grow competitive trading areas.

Tunisia military judge orders release of president's opponent

TUNIS (Reuters) - A Tunisian military judge on Monday ordered the release of Abd Errazak Kilani, a lawyer and prominent opponent of President Kais Saied, from prison pending trial, Kilani’s lawyer told Reuters.

Kilani was imprisoned this month on a charge of inciting police to break the law. The judge, who had the option of releasing Kilani, did not give a reason for the decision. A trial date has not been announced.

Last summer, Saied suspended parliament and seized most powers, in a move his opponents called a coup. He also changed the supreme judicial council reinforcing the one-man rule.

Kilani’s arrest this month sparked the anger‮ ‬of human rights groups at home and abroad, who accused President Saied of seeking to impose a dictatorial regime and using the military judiciary to target his opponents.

But Saied rejected accusations and said he did not interfere in the judiciary.

Reporting By Tarek Amara; Editing by Cynthia Osterman

Ukraine war threatens food crisis and political upheaval across Africa, warns top economist

The continent is deeply reliant on cereals imports

ByWill Brown IN DAKAR

21 March 2022 •

A grain storage facility in Odesa. Ukraine produces almost 12 per cent of the wheat in the global export market

CREDIT: Simon Townsley/The Telegraph

The war in Ukraine threatens to lead to food riots, political upheaval and turn back the clock in years of progress in Africa, the continent’s top economist told The Telegraph.

“This war has to come to an end. It's not just a war in Ukraine. It's a war that has global ramifications,” Dr Akinwumi Adesina, President of the African Development Bank, told The Telegraph.

“The price of wheat has gone up by 62 per cent [since the beginning of the war]. The price of maize has gone up by 36 per cent. The price of soya beans by 29 per cent. Now the price of fertilisers, which are very, very critical for food productions, has gone up by 300 per cent – that's three times.”

“And when you couple that with energy prices that are also rising in many African countries, you can see that this is driving inflation. If urgent action is not taken, it could lead to a food crisis in Africa.”
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Dr Adesina is one of the most respected and recognisable public figures on the continent.

For the last seven years, the Nigerian economist has led the African Development Bank, an African Union institution dedicated to fighting poverty and improving living conditions not through short term aid donations but through public and private investment programs.

Mykhailo Golovatyuk in a grain storage facility on a farm in Odesa, Ukraine

CREDIT: Simon Townsley/The Telegraph

Speaking to The Telegraph in an exclusive interview, he laid out the challenge the war in Ukraine posed to Africa, which is deeply reliant on cereals imports from the two countries.

Dr Adesina said that Covid-19 lockdowns across the continent and a climate change-induced drought across eastern Africa had already severely damaged food production and that the rapidly rising food prices were throwing regional governments a curveball.

Ukraine and Russia export about 25 per cent of the world's wheat, while together, both countries make up about 80 per cent of the world's sunflower oil trade.

Africa relies heavily on both countries for food imports – countries like Benin, Somalia, Tanzania, Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo and Egypt get more than 50 per cent of their wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the World Food Program, which helps feed tens of millions of people in crises across Africa, buys more than half of the wheat from Ukraine.

“East Africa is particularly of concern to us. Russia and Ukraine supply most of the grains to this region. In fact, East Africa relies on these two countries for 90 per cent of their wheat.”

“The price of food accounts for about 65 per cent of the consumer price index. So you can imagine what [rapidly rising food prices] is going to do for low-income earners in Africa. It's going to worsen poverty. It's going to worsen food insecurity.”

His comments came after the United Nations warned on Friday that Russia's blockade of Ukraine's access to the Black Sea risked triggering famines worldwide.

“For the last three years, global rates of hunger and famine have been on the rise. With the Russian invasion, we are now facing the risk of imminent famine and starvation in more places around the world,” said Michael Fakhri, the UN's special rapporteur on the right to food.

Dr Adesina said that rising food and energy prices could have serious political repercussions for many African countries. “That keeps me very worried…We may have some food riots because people can't survive like that.”

“We saw what happened in Tunisia. The Arab Spring came just because of that. If we don't bring the prices down very quickly, it creates a risk of fragility in already very tense political situations in many African countries.”

He added that the increased price of liquified gas meant that more Africans were returning to cooking with charcoal which is far more polluting and extremely damaging for the health.

East Africa has been hit by climate change-related droughts

CREDIT: Brian Inganga /AP

However, the World Food Prize winner argued that Africa was more than capable of looking out for itself but that it needed to invest massively in boosting agricultural production.

He pointed to one of the Bank's flagship programs that rapidly boosted food supplies in seven African countries.

According to Dr Adesina, simple methods like delivering heat-tolerant wheat varieties to farmers boosted wheat production per hectare by about 75 per cent in Sudan and 260 per cent in Ethiopia in just two years in the target areas.

According to African Development Bank statistics, this allowed Ethiopia to reduce its wheat imports by more than 50 per cent.

“We have what it takes. We need financing to feed Africa and advert a food crisis,” says Dr Adesina. “When Covid-19 struck, we were not ready. But for this, we are ready.”

U.N. Chief Warns of ‘Catastrophe’ With Continued Use of Fossil Fuels

António Guterres, the United Nations secretary general, said instead of replacing Russian oil, gas and coal, nations must pivot to clean energy.

António Guterres, the U.N. Secretary General, at the organization's headquarters in New York City this month.Credit...Andrew Kelly/Reuters

By Lisa Friedman
March 21, 2022

WASHINGTON — Countries are “sleepwalking to climate catastrophe” if they continue to rely on fossil fuels, and nations racing to replace Russian oil, gas and coal with their own dirty energy are making matters worse, United Nations Secretary General António Guterres warned on Monday.

The ambitious promises world leaders made last year at a climate summit in Glasgow were “naïve optimism,” Mr. Guterres said. Nations are nowhere near the goal of limiting the average global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. That’s the threshold beyond which scientists say the likelihood of catastrophic impacts increases significantly. The planet has already warmed an average of 1.1 degrees Celsius.

And the pollution that is dangerously heating the planet is continuing to increase. Global emissions are set to rise by 14 percent in the 2020s, and emissions from coal continue to surge, he said.

Yes, There Has Been Progress on Climate. No, It’s Not Nearly Enough.
Nations have started making progress on climate change. But we’re still on track for dangerous warming unless those efforts accelerate drastically.

“The 1.5 degree goal is on life support. It is in intensive care,” Mr. Guterres said in remarks delivered to a summit The Economist is hosting on sustainability via video address.

“We are sleepwalking to climate catastrophe,” he said. “If we continue with more of the same, we can kiss 1.5 goodbye. Even 2 degrees may be out of reach. And that would be catastrophe.”

Mr. Guterres’s speech comes as the European Union is trying to find ways to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas, and countries like the United States are scrambling to increase fossil fuel production to stabilize energy markets. President Biden and European leaders have said that the short-term needs will not upend their longer-term vision of shifting to wind, solar and other renewable sources that do not produce dangerous greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate Forward There’s an ongoing crisis — and tons of news. Our newsletter keeps you up to date. Get it sent to your inbox.

But the U.N. secretary general said he fears that strategy endangers the goal of rapid reduction of fossil fuel burning. Keeping the planet at safe levels means slashing emissions worldwide 45 percent by 2050, scientists have said.

In Glasgow in November world leaders promised to stave off climate change and, for the first time, planned to “phase down” coal — the dirtiest fossil fuel. Leaders from 100 countries also pledged to stop deforestation by 2030, a move considered vital since trees absorb carbon dioxide. The United States, Europe and about 100 other nations also said they would cut methane emissions 30 percent by 2030. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas produced from oil and gas operations.

But there has been almost no progress, Mr. Guterres said. In addition, rich countries most responsible for polluting the planet have not met their obligation to help the poorest countries — already “slammed” by high inflation, rising interest rates and debt — to develop clean energy, he said.

At the same time, he warned, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is upending global energy markets, further undermining climate goals.

“As major economies pursue an ‘all-of-the-above’ strategy to replace Russian fossil fuels, short-term measures might create long-term fossil fuel dependence and close the window to 1.5 degrees,” Mr. Guterres said.

He cautioned countries could become so focused on the immediate need to fill the oil, gas and coal gap “that they neglect or kneecap policies to cut fossil fuel use.”

Understand the Latest News on Climate Change

Card 1 of 4

A messaging battle. The general public in the United States is broadly supportive of a determined move away from fossil fuels. Climate scientists and oil executives, however, have very different views of how that energy transition should play out.

Enduring drought. Drought conditions are likely to continue across more than half of the continental United States through at least June, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said. Nearly 60 percent of the continental United States is experiencing drought.

An Amazon tipping point. The Amazon is losing its ability to recover from droughts and land-use changes, a study found, adding to concern that the rainforest is nearing a point where much of it will be replaced by grassland, with vast consequences for biodiversity and climate change.

Struggling to adapt. The dangers of climate change are mounting so rapidly that they could soon overwhelm the ability of both nature and humanity to adapt, according to a major U.N. report. The lack of prompt action is pushing some scientists to go on strike.

“This is madness,” he said. “Addiction to fossil fuels is mutually assured destruction.”

Last week the International Energy Agency warned that the world faced its first global energy crisis, and recommended that major economies conserve energy by implementing 10 strategies, from carpooling to traveling by train instead of airplane.

In his speech, Mr. Guterres said wealthy nations should be dismantling coal infrastructure to phase it out completely by 2030, with other nations doing so by 2040. He called for an end to fossil fuel subsidies and a halt to new oil and gas exploration. Mr. Guterres also said private sector financing for coal must end.

“Their support for coal not only could cost the world its climate goals,” he said. “It’s a stupid investment — leading to billions in stranded assets.”

The American Petroleum Institute, which represents oil and gas companies, said in a statement that the industry “can responsibly develop America’s vast resources while at the same time reducing emissions to address climate change.”

President Biden has promised a rapid clean energy transition in the United States but it has not started yet. Legislation he has championed to hasten the shift to renewable energy, the Build Back Better Act, is stalled in Congress. Meanwhile, his plans to stop new oil and gas leasing have faced challenges in the courts.

Lisa Friedman reports on federal climate and environmental policy from Washington. She has broken multiple stories about the Trump administration’s efforts to repeal climate change regulations and limit the use of science in policymaking. @LFFriedman
A version of this article appears in print on March 22, 2022, Section A, Page 6 of the New York edition with the headline: Warning of a ‘Catastrophe’ With the Use of Fossil Fuels.