Saturday, June 18, 2022

Retail Traders Who Drove Meme Frenzy Bail Out in Bear Market

Vildana Hajric and Peyton Forte
Fri, June 17, 2022





(Bloomberg) -- Stock traders who whipped up the meme craze that took Wall Street by storm last year are furiously rushing to the exits.

Roughly 50% of single-stock retail positions in the Nasdaq 100 and a quarter of those in the S&P 500 that had been accumulated since January 2019 have been sold, according to data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. In another sign their exuberance has faded, call-option volumes have reversed about 70% of their increases from the start of 2019 to November 2021, when tech stocks and Bitcoin peaked.

“While historically retail investors have bought the dip, this time they haven’t,” wrote John Marshall, head of derivatives research at Goldman Sachs.

Wall Street had been obsessed with how at-home traders were behaving during the pandemic when it came to the market. The boredom-markets-hypothesis -- which postulated that many of those were stuck at home with little to do turned to stocks to fill their time and satisfy their boredom -- became just about settled science. Stocks only go up, the saying went at the time, with indexes notching impressive returns even as the pandemic raged.

Hordes of day traders flooded social-media forums like Reddit and Twitter and fed each other information and trading tips. Their collective efforts famously pushed up shares of GameStop Corp. and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., among others, dealing a blow to big-name short sellers who had bet against those stocks.


But the tides have turned and 2022 has offered only rough trading and much gut-wrenching volatility. The gumption among the retail crowd to buy the dip has come to a test, with the strategy not faring as well in a market that’s seen the S&P 500 lose more than 20% and the Nasdaq 100 drop 30% this year. In fact, a retail-investor behavior measure by TD Ameritrade shows they have been cutting exposure to equities all year.

“The way that they’re likely going to be trading going forward is likely selling dips as they try to protect any gains that they may have or reduce further losses,” said Eric Johnston, head of equity derivatives and cross asset at Cantor Fitzgerald. “We can no longer count on the individual investor to be a backstop for this market.”

All manner of investments have lost value in 2022. Among the retail crowd, tech and biotech have been heavily sold, according to Goldman. Meanwhile, a basket of retail-favored stocks tracked by the bank has lost more than 40% year to date, and another made up of companies most frequently mentioned on social-media forums is down roughly 50%. Crypto, another individual-investor favorite, has also been stuck in the gutter.

A key concern for economists, now that the Federal Reserve is working on cooling the economy and inflation, is how the consumer will bear it out. And while a debate rages over the central bank’s ability to engineer a softish landing or over-correct into a recession, even a mild one, consumers have already shown some signs of pulling back. Data this week showed retail sales in May unexpectedly declined for the first time in five months.

Charles Schwab surveyed over 1,000 of its retail clients in April and found that 57% of respondents have a bearish outlook on the U.S. stock market for the second quarter of 2022, an increase of 29% from the same time last year. The primary driver of the negative outlook is the higher cost of living, followed by geopolitical concerns, according to Schwab.


“Consumers are pulling back,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at TIAA Bank. “We’re seeing most investors sit this out, which is probably smart, sitting out the volatility.”

Still, Goldman says retail investors are continuing to put money toward exchange-traded funds, especially and dividend-focused ones, which have seen more than $30 billion of inflows this year.

“There has been a regime shift from the old FAANG megatech names to more defensive, income plays,” said Jane Edmondson, CEO and founder of EQM Capital.

(Updates with new commentary.)
Congo Miner Threatens to Seize Giant Cobalt Project From Chinese Partner

Michael Kavanagh
Fri, June 17, 2022,



(Bloomberg) -- A shareholder dispute over one of the world’s biggest copper and cobalt mines is heating up in the Democratic Republic of Congo, after state miner Gecamines threatened to block exports or even take the mine away from its partner, China Molybdenum Co.

Congo’s Gecamines, which owns 20% of the Tenke Fungurume mine’s holding company, has accused CMOC of manipulating the project’s finances and says it owes as much as $5 billion in payments.

The disagreement has extended to who is actually running the mine: a Congolese court appointed a temporary administrator to manage the holding company while the shareholders sort out their differences, but CMOC insisted nothing has changed. The administrator, Sage Ngoie Mbayo, says he now controls the company’s bank accounts but was blocked from entering the mine site last week by Congolese soldiers.

Things were set to come to a head Thursday at the first meeting between the shareholders and Ngoie at Tenke Fungurume Mining SA’s offices in the Congolese mining hub of Lubumbashi. But while Gecamines’ top two executives were there, CMOC representatives didn’t attend.

Gecamines Chief Executive Officer Bester-Hilaire Ntambwe Ngoy Kabongo and his deputy, Leon Mwine Kabiena, said they are prepared to take more drastic action, including effectively revoking CMOC’s ownership of the project by dissolving the partnership.

Armed Guards

“If it continues like this, we are going to ask for the dissolution,” the CEO said. The two executives became increasingly agitated during the meeting, which lasted two hours in a boardroom surrounded by otherwise-empty company offices, while armed guards stood outside.

“What CMOC is doing now is stealing, it’s cheating, it’s covering-up,” Mwine said, adding that they were “liars,” “pillagers,” “bandits,” and “criminals.”

CMOC did not immediately answer questions on the meeting or Gecamines’ statements. The company previously said the mine is operating as usual without any change in management, and production is beating targets. In its 2021 annual report, CMOC said communication with Gecamines was “complex and dynamic” and they planned to engage an independent third party to verify disagreements over reserve estimates “and resolve the differences through fair and impartial negotiation.”

Any disruption to operations or exports from Tenke Fungurume could send ripples through global metals markets. Congo is one of the world’s top producers of copper and by far the largest supplier of the key battery mineral cobalt. Tenke alone accounts for about 14% of world cobalt production, according to calculations by Bloomberg using figures from Darton Commodities Ltd., and the ore body is expected to last for decades.

CMOC bought control of the project from Phoenix-based Freeport McMoRan Inc. about five years ago in a deal that ultimately cost the company more than $3 billion. The mine produced 209,120 tons of copper and 18,501 tons of cobalt in 2021, according to CMOC.

The dispute between the current partners began around last August, when CMOC announced it would invest another $2.5 billion to more than double production at the mine. Gecamines officials questioned how it could achieve the huge increase without raising its reserve estimates, which would trigger royalty payments of $12 per ton, Ntambwe said.

Within weeks of CMOC’s announcement, Congo President Felix Tshisekedi formed a commission to examine the partnership and Gecamines soon followed with a lawsuit at the Lubumbashi commercial court.

In February, the court decided in Gecamines’ favor, ordering that Tenke Fungurume Mining SA should be run for at least six months by Ngoie, who has a PhD in geohydrology and previously worked for a number of mines in Congo including TFM.

Broken Down

Congo’s government put the appointment on hold while the presidential commission tried to negotiate with CMOC, but talks have broken down again, according to Mwine, who is also coordinator of the commission.

Ngoie said he is neither on the side of CMOC nor of Gecamines, and his concern was the health of the company.

“I am the church in the middle of the village,” he said. In addition to TFM’s bank accounts, Ngoie said he soon will control its exports. “They don’t go by plane, they only go by road. And one way or another, I’ll control that,” he said. “I have the power to do that.”

Mwine says Gecamines has a right as a shareholder to block the project’s exports.

“Tactical arrangements can also be made at road level so that no TFM production can go out,” he said. “We have a lot of options on the table and if they continue with this game, things will get harder.”

(Updates with $5 billion figure in second paragraph.)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
Elon Musk sued for $258 billion over alleged Dogecoin pyramid scheme

Thu, June 16, 2022, 
By Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK, June 16 (Reuters) - Elon Musk was sued for $258 billion on Thursday by a Dogecoin investor who accused him of running a pyramid scheme to support the cryptocurrency.

In a complaint filed in federal court in Manhattan, plaintiff Keith Johnson accused Musk, electric car company Tesla Inc and space tourism company SpaceX of racketeering for touting Dogecoin and driving up its price, only to then let the price tumble.

Musk is CEO of both Tesla and SpaceX.

"Defendants were aware since 2019 that Dogecoin had no value yet promoted Dogecoin to profit from its trading," the complaint said. "Musk used his pedestal as World's Richest man to operate and manipulate the Dogecoin Pyramid Scheme for profit, exposure and amusement."

The complaint also aggregates comments from Warren Buffett, Bill Gates and others questioning the value of cryptocurrency.

Tesla, SpaceX and a lawyer for Musk did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

A lawyer for Johnson did not immediately respond to requests for comment on what specific evidence his client has or expects to have that proves Dogecoin is worthless and the defendants ran a pyramid scheme.

Johnson is seeking $86 billion in damages, representing the decline in Dogecoin's market value since May 2021, and wants it tripled.

He also wants to block Musk and his companies from promoting Dogecoin and a judge to declare that trading Dogecoin is gambling under federal and New York law.

The complaint said Dogecoin's selloff began around the time Musk hosted the NBC show "Saturday Night Live and, playing a fictitious financial expert on a "Weekend Update" segment, called Dogecoin "a hustle."

Tesla in February 2021 said it had bought $1.5 billion of bitcoin and for a short time accepted it as payment for vehicles.

Dogecoin traded at about 5.8 cents on Thursday, down from its May 2021 peak of about 74 cents.

The case is Johnson v. Musk et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No. 22-05037.

(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York; Editing by Leslie Adler)

Tesla cuts job openings since Elon Musk's economic warning


SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) -Tesla has cut job postings by 14% since Chief Executive Elon Musk warned he was worried about the economy, needed to reduce staff and would pause hiring worldwide.

Tesla's actions are a concerning sign of the health of the global economy as markets contract, inflation soars and recession worries run rampant.

The number of job listings on Tesla's website has dropped to 5,011 from 5,855 at the start of the month, according to data provided to Reuters by Thinknum Alternative Data. Listings are down 32% from a recent high on May 21.

In addition, about 20 people identifying themselves as Tesla employees said they were laid off, let go or had positions terminated in the past week in online postings and interviews with Reuters. That is a tiny number compared to the size of Tesla's workforce, but several described being part of a 10% job reduction, signaling that the company is indeed laying off workers.

Other Tesla workers cited a sense of uncertainty over how job cuts would be implemented and said Musk’s order earlier this month that they return to the office and stop working remotely had made their positions untenable.

Tesla did not respond to Reuters' request for comment.

The full scope of the job reductions and to what extent those cuts have been offset by additional hiring was not immediately clear, and Tesla remains a sought-after employer with a climate-focused mission and a record of innovation that has fueled rocketing vehicle sales.

Tesla, which had about 100,000 employees globally at the end of last year, also canceled three online recruitment events for China that had been scheduled this month.

Tesla has continued to hire in some areas, including Germany, where Tesla is ramping up production on a delayed electric vehicle factory near Berlin. The regional economy minister for Brandenburg, the state where the plant is located, said earlier this week that Tesla was hiring 500 to 600 new workers per month and had recruited about 4,500 people so far.

'SUPER BAD' START TO MUSK MESSAGES

Musk told Tesla executives in an email on June 2 seen by Reuters he had a "super bad feeling" about the economy and that the company needed to cut staff by about 10% and "pause all hiring worldwide."

He followed up the next day with a note to all employees saying 10% job cuts would apply to salaried workers, not hourly workers. And on June 4 he tweeted that over the next 12 months salaried worker headcount would remain the same and total headcount at Tesla would likely increase. Musk’s warning about the economy was read by analysts as a warning for the broader auto sector, which has seen strong demand relative to production despite two years of global pandemic and increasing concern of the risk of recession.

Tesla has achieved record deliveries and earnings despite supply chain constraints, but a lockdown in Shanghai cut production. Its share price also has dropped 40% this year, partly because of concerns by Tesla investors about Musk's offer to buy Twitter. Others found evidence that Tesla had pulled back on job postings in recent weeks. Hedge fund Snow Bull Capital calculated a 24% drop in Tesla job postings globally in the first week of June, and a 12% decrease in the second week of June.

Julian Cantu, who had been working for Tesla for over a year in Austin, Texas, said that he was told that his job had been eliminated. "I didn't necessarily think it would happen to me," said Cantu, who was paid on an hourly basis.

Cantu told Reuters that several other members of his team had also had their jobs eliminated. Some of them had moved to Texas to work for Tesla, he said.

Others who have left Tesla include the company’s country manager in Singapore, the company’s senior representative in India, a market it has suspended plans to enter, and a senior manager at Tesla's Texas factory.

Two days before his job warning, Musk said in a company email that he would fire workers who did not return to the office, saying making the most exciting products "will not happen by phoning it in".

Tesla, headquartered in Texas, also has U.S. offices in Fremont and Palo Alto, California.

Musk’s abrupt order to workers to return to working from the office blindsided some, two Tesla workers told Reuters.

One of them, a Tesla employee who had been hired to work remotely, told Reuters that the mixed messages were impinging on work.

"Many of the conference calls I've gone on, people will say, 'Have you heard anything? Do you know anyone who's gotten laid off?' You spend five to 10 minutes at the beginning of every call trying to get information," the person said.

(Reporting by Hyunjoo Jin and Victoria Waldersee; Additional reporting by Ju-min Park; Editing by Peter Henderson, Kevin Krolicki and Lisa Shumaker)

Elon Musk Is Furious

Tesla CEO is angry at federal move that he says
benefits premium electric vehicle maker's rivals.

Elon Musk is angry. 

His detractors will see a lack of fair play, while his fans will give him reason. 

Before getting to the reason for his anger, it should be noted that for more than a decade, from 2003 to almost 2013, the billionaire and Tesla  (TSLA) - Get Tesla Inc. Report pushed hard for the adoption of electric vehicles despite mockery from rivals and skepticism from financial markets and consumers. 

Musk and Tesla had, however, found an ear at the White House in the person of Barack Obama, newly elected in 2008. Obama set an ambitious goal of putting 1 million advanced technology vehicles on the road by 2015 - which would reduce dependence on foreign oil and lead to a reduction in oil consumption of about 750 million barrels through 2030. 

Obama proposed to transform the existing $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles into a rebate that will be available to all consumers immediately at the point of sale. Tesla, which was one of the few vehicle manufacturers to develop only vehicles, took full advantage of this aid.

But that tax credit was to start disappearing once the automaker had sold its 200,000th qualifying. The credit was first to be reduced to $3,750, then to half again, and finally the aid was to disappear over a period of time.

Tesla sold its 200,000th vehicle in 2018, and the credit fully expired at the end of 2019.

It's a 'Big Deal'

But for many of the Austin, TX-based company's competitors, the tax credit still applies in full. This is the case, for example, of the Ford Mustang Mach-E  (F) - Get Ford Motor Company Report model, the F-150 Lightning pickup/truck, the electric version of the best-selling F-150, the Lucid Air sedan from Lucid Group  (LCID) - Get Lucid Group Inc. Report, the Mercedes-Benz EV EQS  (DDAIF, the Porsche Taycan  (VLKAF, R1T pickups and R1S SUVs from Rivian  (RIVN) - Get Rivian Automotive Inc. Report and the Volkswagen ID.4.

You can find the list of brands and vehicles that still benefit from this tax credit here.

This credit gives a competitive edge to all these brands as the battle intensifies in the electric vehicle market between automakers, says Musk. And conversely, this substantial aid disadvantages Tesla, says its CEO.

"Tesla is at a competitive disadvantage with respect to tax credits," Musk said during a recent interview with the Tesla fan club Tesla owners Silicon Valley. "That is quite significant when you're talking about like, say a $40,000 car and a $7,500 tax credit. That's like almost a 20% difference. So big deal.

The serial entrepreneur did not stop there.

"So Tesla is successful currently in spite of our competitors having materially greater tax advantages, in spite of it not because of it."

"If you eliminated all EV tax credits, Tesla's position will improve immediately."

To show that he was angry at this federal tax credit that he considers unfair, Musk renewed his criticisms on the social network Twitter.

"Buyers of competing electric cars receive a $7500 tax credit, but Tesla does not," the billionaire repeated, thereby making his company a victim.

Tesla Is Not Alone

The video, posted on June 15, has already been viewed more than 2.3 million times.

"Truly absurd that government would actually subsidize cars that are not even being manufactured in the US with $7500 tax credit & wouldn't support Tesla (which completely manufacturers in the US)," commented a Musk fan. "Government supports Ford, whereas Ford is producing few of their cars in Mexico."

"Yeah, it’s crazy," Musk replied. "Model 3 has the most US content of any car made today."

What Musk fails to say is that Tesla isn't the only major automaker no longer benefiting from this federal tax credit. General Motors  (GM) - Get General Motors Company Report is also in the same situation. Electric vehicle buyers interested in the Chevy Bolt and Chevy Bolt EUV will receive nothing.

In general, vehicles benefiting from this federal tax credit must be battery-electric or plug-in hybrids and purchased-- not leased -- as new vehicles.

It is based on battery capacity beyond a standardized minimum, so some plug-in vehicles qualify for lesser amounts.

Aside from the federal tax credit, there are other state-level incentives for electric vehicle buyers. You can consult the list of states offering aid here.

Elon Musk tells Twitter employees

he wants to be involved in product


Amanda Silberling

Thu, June 16, 2022

In a company-wide Twitter call today, presumptive buyer Elon Musk answered questions from "tweeps" for the first time.

Will the Tesla and SpaceX CEO's $44 billion offer to buy Twitter actually go through? Your guess is as good as mine -- but the market downturn means that his offer is a bit more steep than it was initially, causing him to drag his feet and dwell on the problem of bots. And if the deal goes through, what will his role be? Who knows. But Musk's Q&A with Twitter employees at least shed a bit of light as to where his head is.

According to a New York Times liveblog of the 45-minute call, Musk said he isn't quite sure what his title at the company will be. But he particularly wants to be involved in product and expects the team to listen to his input on new features. He also added that he's very involved at Tesla, and he would adopt a similar leadership style at Twitter.

As layoffs sweep the tech industry, some Twitter employees asked how Musk's potential acquisition might affect their jobs (questions were relayed through Leslie Berland, Twitter's chief marketing officer).

Again, Musk was vague in his response.

"Right now, costs exceed revenue. That’s not a great situation," he said regarding potential layoffs. Musk has also warned employees about job cuts at Tesla, where he plans to reduce headcount by 10%.

Right now, about a quarter of Twitter's employees work from home. But earlier this month, Musk sent Tesla employees an email with the subject line "To be super clear," stating that all employees need to spend a minimum of 40 hours in the office each week.

"Moreover, the office must be where your actual colleagues are located, not some remote pseudo office," he wrote.

Musk told Twitter employees that it is "much better if you are on location physically," but that exceptional employees might be able to work remotely. This is because the business of running a social media platform is far different from building cars or rockets, which Musk believes is "impossible to do remotely."

"The more senior you are, the more visible must be your presence," he wrote in his message to Tesla employees. He claimed that Tesla would have gone bankrupt had he not spent time in the factories, where "those on the line could see [him] working alongside them."

As expected, Musk wants to make Twitter a private company once the deal closes, saying that the platform can be more productive without having to appease activist shareholders.

Yet the acquisition itself is still up in the air -- Musk has claimed that the deal is "on hold" until Twitter can prove that its claims about the number of bots on the platform are legitimate, and Twitter hands over its "firehose" of data. So if he does want to get out of the deal, it won't be easy.

"Twitter has and will continue to cooperatively share information with Mr. Musk to consummate the transaction in accordance with the terms of the merger agreement," Twitter said in a statement to TechCrunch last week. "We intend to close the transaction and enforce the merger agreement at the agreed price and terms."

Opinion: How an arrogant and pathological America could lose the new cold war

The U.S. says it’s fighting for values such as democracy and honor, but America needs to live by those words at home if it wants anyone to stand with it



America’s deranged political system is hardly the envy of the world. 
GETTY IMAGES

Last Updated: June 18, 2022 
By Joseph E. Stiglitz

NEW YORK (Project Syndicate) — The United States appears to have entered a new cold war with both China and Russia. And U.S. leaders’ portrayal of the confrontation as one between democracy and authoritarianism fails the smell test, especially at a time when the same leaders are actively courting a systematic human-rights abuser like Saudi Arabia.

Such hypocrisy suggests that it is at least partly global hegemony, not values, that is really at stake.

For nearly two decades after the fall of the Iron Curtain, the U.S. was clearly No. 1. But then came disastrously misguided wars in the Middle East, the 2008 financial crash, rising inequality, the opioid epidemic and other crises that seemed to cast doubt on the superiority of America’s economic model.

Cold wars ultimately are won with the soft power of attraction and persuasion. To come out on top, we must convince the rest of the world to buy not just our products, but also the social, political and economic system we’re selling.

Deeply pathological

Moreover, between Donald Trump’s election; the attempted coup at the U.S. Capitol; numerous mass shootings; a Republican Party bent on voter suppression; and the rise of conspiracy cults, such as QAnon, there is more than enough evidence to suggest that some aspects of American political and social life have become deeply pathological.

Of course, America does not want to be dethroned. But it is simply inevitable that China will outstrip the U.S. economically, regardless of what official indicator one uses. Not only is its population four times larger than America’s; its economy also has been growing three times faster for many years (indeed, it already surpassed the U.S. in purchasing-power-parity terms back in 2015).

The West must once again make our economic, social and political systems the envy of the world.

While China has not done anything to declare itself as a strategic threat to America, the writing is on the wall. In Washington, there is a bipartisan consensus that China could pose a strategic threat, and that the least the U.S. should do to mitigate the risk is to stop helping the Chinese economy grow. According to this view, pre-emptive action is warranted, even if it means violating the World Trade Organization rules that the U.S. itself did so much to write and promote.

This front in the new cold war opened well before Russia invaded Ukraine. And senior U.S. officials have since warned that the Ukraine war must not divert attention from the real long-term threat: China. Given that Russia’s economy is around the same size as Spain’s, its “no limits” partnership with China hardly seems to matter economically (though its willingness to engage in disruptive activities around the world could prove useful to its larger southern neighbor).
Winning hearts and minds

But a country at “war” needs a strategy, and the U.S. cannot win a new great-power contest by itself; it needs friends. Its natural allies are Europe and the other developed democracies around the world. But Trump did everything he could to alienate those countries, and the Republicans — still wholly beholden to him — have provided ample reason to question whether the U.S. is a reliable partner.

Moreover, the U.S. also must win the hearts and minds of billions of people in the world’s developing countries and emerging markets — not just to have numbers on its side, but also to secure access to critical resources.

In seeking the world’s favor, the U.S. will have to make up a lot of lost ground. Its long history of exploiting other countries does not help, and nor does its deeply embedded racism — a force that Trump expertly and cynically channels. Most recently, U.S. policy makers contributed to global “vaccine apartheid,” whereby rich countries got all the shots they needed while people in poorer countries were left to their fates. Meanwhile, America’s new cold war opponents have made their vaccines readily available to abroad at or below cost, while also helping countries develop their own vaccine-production facilities.


Credibility gap


The credibility gap is even wider when it comes to climate change, which disproportionately affects those in the Global South who have the least ability to cope. While major emerging markets have become the leading sources of greenhouse-gas emissions today, U.S. cumulative emissions are still the largest by far. Developed countries continue to add to them, and, worse, have not even delivered on their meager promises to help poor countries manage the effects of the climate crisis that the rich world caused.

Instead, U.S. banks contribute to looming debt crises in many countries, often revealing a depraved indifference to the suffering that results.

Do what I say, not what I do


Europe and America excel at lecturing others on what is morally right and economically sensible. But the message that usually comes through—as the persistence of U.S. and European agricultural subsidies makes clear—is “do what I say, not what I do.”

Especially after the Trump years, America no longer holds any claim to the moral high ground, nor does it have the credibility to dispense advice. Neoliberalism and trickle-down economics were never widely embraced in the Global South, and now they are going out of fashion everywhere.

At the same time, China has excelled not at delivering lectures but at furnishing poor countries with hard infrastructure. Yes, these countries are often left deeply in debt; but, given Western banks’ own behavior as creditors in the developing world, the U.S. and others are hardly in a position to point the finger.

I could go on, but the point should be clear: If the U.S. is going to embark on a new cold war, it had better understand what it will take to win. Cold wars ultimately are won with the soft power of attraction and persuasion. To come out on top, we must convince the rest of the world to buy not just our products, but also the social, political, and economic system we’re selling.

The U.S. might know how to make the world’s best bombers and missile systems, but they will not help us here. Instead, we must offer concrete help to developing and emerging-market countries, starting with a waiver on all COVID-related intellectual property so that they can produce vaccines and treatments for themselves.

Equally important, the West must once again make our economic, social, and political systems the envy of the world. In the U.S., that starts with reducing gun violence, improving environmental regulations, combating inequality and racism, and protecting women’s reproductive rights. Until we have proven ourselves worthy to lead, we cannot expect others to march to our drum.

This commentary was published with permission of Project Syndicate: How the U.S. Could Lose the New Cold War


Joseph E. Stiglitz, a Nobel laureate in economics and University Professor at Columbia University, is a former chief economist of the World Bank (1997-2000), chair of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, and co-chair of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices. He is a member of the Independent Commission for the Reform of International Corporate Taxation and was lead author of the 1995 IPCC Climate Assessment.
UN envoy's farewell: My heart breaks for Afghan girls, women


FILE - Finland's Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto, right, and Special Representative of the Secretary General of the United Nations for Afghanistan, Deborah Lyons, left, wear protective masks prior to the plenary session of the 2020 Afghanistan Conference at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2020. Lyons is leaving her post as the U.N. chief’s special representative and gave a farewell statement released to the media on Thursday, June 16, 2022. She said the Afghanistan today is a very different country from the one she encountered two years ago.
(Denis Balibouse/Pool Photo via AP, File) 

RAHIM FAIEZ
Thu, June 16, 2022

ISLAMABAD (AP) — The U.N. representative in Afghanistan lamented in her farewell statement Thursday the harsh edicts that the Taliban have imposed on girls and women since they seized power in the country, denying them the right to education and work and forcing millions to stay at home.

Deborah Lyons, who is leaving her post as the U.N. chief's special representative, said that the Afghanistan today is a very different country from the one she encountered two years ago. Her comments came in a statement that was released to the media; her successor has not yet been named.

“I could not have imagined, when I accepted this job, the Afghanistan that I am now leaving," she said. “My heart breaks in particular for the millions of Afghan girls who are denied their right to education, and the many Afghan women full of talent who are being told to stay at home.”

The Taliban overran the Afghan capital of Kabul in mid-August as the United States and NATO were in the final weeks of their withdrawal from the country. Afghanistan's new rulers quickly started enforcing a sharply tougher line, harking back to similar radical measures when the Taliban last ruled the country, from 1996 to 2001.

They issued edicts requiring women to cover their faces except for their eyes in public, including women presenters on TV, and banned girls from attending school past the sixth grade.

At the same time, Afghanistan has seen persistent bombings and other attacks on civilians, often targeting the mainly Shiite Muslim ethnic Hazara minority. Most of the attacks have been claimed by the Islamic State group’s affiliate in the country, a bitter rival of the Taliban.

“It is an irony that now that there is space for everyone to help rebuild the country half of the population is confined and prevented from doing so,” said Lyons, who was appointed head of U.N. mission to Afghanistan in March 2020.

“It is that much more painful as a woman to leave my Afghan sisters in the condition they are in," she said and added that she is convinced that a “system that excludes women, minorities, and talented people will not endure."

She pledged, however, that the United Nations would not abandon the Afghan people.

Lyons assumed her post as the coronavirus pandemic gripped the world. In Afghanistan, she faced the effects of the agreement with the Taliban, signed on Feb. 29, 2020 in Qatar, for U.S. troops to leave the country and for the insurgents to guarantee that Afghan territory would not be used for terrorist attacks against America.

Then came the decision by the Biden administration in April 2021 to withdraw all foreign troops by the end of August that same year, in accordance with the agreement.

Still, the international community remained stunned by the Taliban takeover as the Western-backed government and Afghan forces crumbled. Concerns escalated with the harsh measures imposed by the Taliban as Afghanistan's economy plunged into a downward spiral.

Last month, the U.N. Security Council called on the Taliban to “swiftly reverse” restrictions limiting girls’ access to education and women’s employment, freedom of movement and “full, equal and meaningful participation in public life.”

During the previous Taliban rule in Afghanistan, they subjected women to overwhelming restrictions, banning them from education and participation in public life and requiring them to wear the all-encompassing burqa.
Experts Question Why Uvalde Chief Not Placed on Leave Amid Multiple Probes

Mark Keierleber
Fri, June 17, 2022, 


Police and school security experts are questioning why the Uvalde, Texas, school police chief remains on the job nearly a month after a gunman killed 19 children and two teachers at the local elementary school.

While Chief Pete Arrendondo’s fiercest critics have demanded he be fired following reports that officers under his command waited more than an hour before confronting the shooter, school safety and police accountability experts criticized education leaders for failing to remove him from leadership of the six-member school police force, even temporarily.

Placing cops on “paid administrative leave or in a no-contact assignment” after an officer-involved shooting is standard procedure, according to the world’s largest professional trade group for police chiefs. Those standards, experts told The 74, are critical to the public’s confidence in the ensuing investigations, the school community’s safety and even the chief’s well-being.

“It’s just baffling that you would have this conversation days after the incident, much less weeks or a month out,” said school safety consultant Kenneth Trump, president of National School Safety and Security Services. Trump said the standards for officer-involved shootings should apply to Arredondo, a nearly 30-year law enforcement veteran whose response to the Robb Elementary School mass shooting is the subject of investigations by the local district attorney’s office, state law enforcement officials and the U.S. Department of Justice that will likely take months.

Investigators will scrutinize why officers waited outside a classroom door for more than an hour despite frantic 911 calls from the children inside begging for police to save them and reports that there were others trapped with the gunman who were injured but still alive. Eventually, Border Patrol agents and other law enforcement stormed in and killed the shooter. Arredondo, who was identified as the incident commander on the scene, reportedly made the call not to go in immediately, but to wait for shields that would protect the officers and locate the key to the locked classroom door.

“If there indeed is something found where he made some fatal errors in his decision making, then you don’t want that person still there making decisions on that or other situations,” Trump said. Arredondo witnessed one of the deadliest mass school shootings in U.S. history, a traumatic event that Trump said could cloud the chief’s decisions. “Why would you put somebody under that duress — whether they’re consciously aware of it now or at a later point in time — in a position where they could encounter another stressful or life-threatening situation?”

Related: Campus Cops Scrutinized After Tragic Missteps in Uvalde Shooting Response

Arredondo’s role at the helm of the police department remains uncertain as he avoids public appearances and Uvalde district officials refuse to detail his employment status. But evidence suggests he’s taken on additional responsibilities since the May 24 shooting, with his attorney telling The Texas Tribune that the chief has picked up extra shifts to cover for grieving officers. The Texas Rangers had asked Arredondo to participate in an interview for their investigation into the immediate police response, attorney George Hyde told the news outlet, but he was too busy filling in for his officers. Arrendondo also made time to go to City Hall and be sworn in as a newly elected Uvalde city councilmember a week after the mass shooting.

A few days later, during the Uvalde school board’s first meeting since the armed assault, the board considered whether to reassign or fire Arredondo, but after a closed-door discussion chose not to take immediate action. Board members and a district spokesperson didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The law firm representing Arredondo said he declined to comment for this article, but the 50-year-old police chief defended the police response in his extensive June 9 interview with The Texas Tribune. Arrendondo pushed back against statements that he was the incident commander, saying he did not consider himself to be in charge of the scene and did not give orders to other responding officers, including holding off cops who were impatient to breach the door.

“Not a single responding officer ever hesitated, even for a moment, to put themselves at risk to save the children,” Arredondo told the nonprofit news outlet, though his comments appear to contradict video evidence obtained by The New York Times. “We responded to the information that we had and had to adjust to whatever we faced. Our objective was to save as many lives as we could.”

‘He really failed’


Kenneth Trump

Since the horrific shooting, Trump and other school security experts have been highly critical of officers’ decision to wait in the hallway. For decades, law enforcement has been trained to confront the gunman — even at the cost of their own lives.

Such standards grew out of the 1999 mass school shooting at Columbine High School in suburban Denver, with a realization that every second counts during a mass shooting, most of which are carried out in a matter of minutes. A more aggressive response at Uvalde, experts argue, could have saved lives, perhaps including one teacher who reportedly died in an ambulance and three children who passed away at nearby hospitals.

Public information about Arredondo’s actions that day — and his own admissions that he ran into the school without his police radio or quick access to the desperately needed key — raise significant questions about his ability to perform his job, said Samuel Walker, a national expert on police misconduct and professor emeritus of criminal justice at the University of Nebraska at Omaha. Those questions, he said, necessitate action as investigators examine his conduct.

Related: How Columbine Went Viral

“It appears that his actions were not appropriate and it’s entirely appropriate that he be on leave,” Walker said. “Unless some new evidence comes to light, it looks like he really failed in his responsibility and I think that disqualifies him from working any job in that school district.”

Sheldon Greenberg, an education professor at Johns Hopkins University and a former police officer, said that disciplinary procedures for cops vary greatly across the country and officers often benefit from policies and labor contracts that protect them from facing repercussions for failures on the job.

Several factors complicate this particular situation, Greenberg said. For one, as chief, Arredondo would typically make disciplinary decisions for officers in his department. In the case of the chief, that responsibility would fall to the district superintendent and the school board, who may have little to no experience in police disciplinary matters, Greenberg said. Additionally, he said it’s notably difficult to hold an officer accountable for failures to perform job duties.

“There’s a difference between a police officer who commits an act,” like the Minneapolis police officer who murdered George Floyd “where the officer had his knee on his neck and was forcing compression on his neck for nine minutes,” Greenberg said. With Arredondo, “what he did you might categorize as omission, which is very different.”


Getty Images

Officers at the 4,100-student Uvalde school district, including Arredondo, had been trained as recently as last year on how to respond to an active shooting, and materials by the Texas Commission on Law Enforcement urge cops to “Display uncommon acts of courage to save the innocent.”

“As first responders we must recognize that innocent life must be defended,” according to the state training materials. “A first responder unwilling to place the lives of the innocent above their own safety should consider another career field.”

Related: They Ran for their Lives: Panic at DC March Inflames the Trauma of Parkland

Despite the hardline language in the training materials, Greenberg said an officer isn’t helpful during an emergency if they get killed.

“You can’t do much if you’re dead or disabled,” he said. “You still go in with reasonable caution, just don’t go barging into a room unless you’re sure you have a genuine opportunity to stop the gunman.”

Trump, the school safety consultant, said that placing Arredondo or any officer on administrative leave shouldn’t necessarily be framed as a disciplinary measure. While Arredondo’s continued role in the department could raise concerns about obstruction in the active investigations and about his capacity to keep the community safe, he said that any officer who responded to the elementary school should have a chance to go on leave to recover from the traumatic event.

In many police departments, he said the move is routine procedure, yet it’s unclear what policies are in place for the school district’s six-person police force. A policy manual for the Uvalde school board notes that the police chief “shall be accountable to the superintendent,” but a review of the rules did not yield any insight on leave of absences. Arredondo and any other officers who are placed on leave should continue to receive a paycheck, Trump said.

“They shouldn’t have to worry about income for their family, but they should have that paid leave for them to debrief, to decompress, to process, to not be exposed to continual trauma,” Trump said. While any police-involved shooting can cause distress for the officers involved, the Uvalde shooting resulted in the deaths of 19 children. “They’ve been exposed to major trauma and stress of the worst kind.”

Trump was less sympathetic to Arredondo’s assertion that he’s been too busy to participate in interviews with investigators. Making himself available for questioning, he said, should be the chief’s number one priority. In fact, it’s another reason to put Arredondo on leave: To ensure he has the time and flexibility to cooperate. Meanwhile, officers from outside police departments across the state responded to Uvalde to help.

“I can’t think of anything that anybody should or could be doing that would make them too busy to participate in an investigation into a major school shooting like this,” Trump said. “It’s among the biggest and the worst [mass shootings] that we’ve ever had. That answer certainly doesn’t carry water with most anybody, including the school community.”

Getty Images

‘Coward of Broward’

Arredondo is not the first school-based police officer to face scorn for his performance during a deadly crisis. School resource officer Scot Peterson was placed on administrative leave in 2018 for failing to confront the gunman at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida.

Peterson ultimately chose to retire and was subsequently charged with seven criminal counts of child neglect. Prosecutors said he took cover behind a wall while the gunman killed 17 people. Those actions earned him the nickname the “Coward of Broward” by ardent critics in his Florida county. Even his boss, then-Sheriff Scott Israel, said at the time that Peterson’s actions made him “sick to my stomach.”

Related: A Former School-Based Police Officer Was Charged With Negligence in Connection With the Parkland Massacre. Experts Call the Move Extremely Rare. But What Are the Broader Implications for School Safety?

But Peterson has framed the steps taken against him as a “political lynching.” His attorney, Mark Eiglarsh, told The 74 this week that with both his client and the Uvalde school police chief, “The court of public opinion is unfortunately so quick to condemn responding officers and the incident commander without knowing all the facts.”

“Unfortunately, due to the unprecedented and irresponsible decision” by prosecutors to charge Peterson, he said in an email, he fears that other officers, including Arredondo, “may also be stripped of their liberty and face decades in prison solely because a finding is made after the fact that things could have been handled differently.”

The case against Peterson is expected to head to trial in September.


Steven C. McCraw, Director and Colonel of the Texas Department of Public Safety, speaks during a press conference about the shooting on May 27. (Getty Images)

Despite the numerous investigations into the Uvalde shooting, the accountability that many in this small Texas community are demanding may never come, according to legal experts. Qualified immunity, which protects cops from liability for their mistakes on the job, could challenge civil lawsuits. Meanwhile, charges against police officers — like the ones against Peterson — are extremely rare. But Walker, the police misconduct expert, expects the federal investigation to uncover failures in Uvalde that could help districts nationwide respond to similar attacks moving forward.

“It looks like he failed, and if you fail and cause the death of a number of children, then it’s pretty serious,” Walker said. Yet such shortcomings likely extend beyond Arredondo, he said, and it’s important that the chief doesn’t become the scapegoat. “Clearly there’s what we would call systemic failure, and the school board probably failed in some respects” if it lacked sufficient policies to respond to such a lethal event.
Top economist Mohamed El-Erian says the everything bubble is over. It’s a paradigm shift away from a ‘silly’ artificial economic world

Colin Lodewick
Fri, June 17, 2022

Hollie Adams—Bloomberg/Getty Images


Wednesday’s decision by the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 75 basis points was its biggest hike since 1994, and economists are starting to digest what a paradigm change it is.

One of the world’s most prominent Fed watchers, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser of financial services firm Allianz and president of Queens’ College at Cambridge, says it’s part of a “great awakening” for central banks, as several others took action this week.

For instance, the Swiss National Bank imposed a 50 bps increase, its first since 2007, and the Bank of England initiated a more modest hike of 25 bps. The European Central Bank (ECB) recently announced at an emergency monetary policy meeting that it would initiate its first rate hike in over a decade next month and continue with another in September.

Before this spate of dramatic hikes, central banks had been significantly leading investors astray, he said on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Thursday.

“It’s about time we exit this artificial world of predictable massive liquidity injections, where everybody gets used to zero interest rates, where we do silly things where there is investing in parts of the market we shouldn’t be investing in, or investing in the economy in ways that don’t make sense,” he said. “We are exiting that regime, and it’s going to be bumpy.”

El-Erian is referring to the fact that for most of the past 14 years, monetary policy in the U.S. and internationally has been consistently loose, with the Fed and other central banks setting interest rates low and letting money flow to commercial banks by buying up assets and stocks. (Some critics argue that the 1990s were also extraordinarily loose.) That spurred economic growth in the face of several economic crises but also led to multiple economic bubbles—from housing to crypto to VC-backed subsidies for things like cheap Uber prices—existing at once. Now, all those bubbles are poised to dissipate as banks tighten their policies and stop the free flow of cash.

The impetus for the shift was obvious. Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that the inflation rate for all consumer goods increased in May to 8.6%, after a slight decrease to 8.3% in April, following a peak of 8.5% in March.

“8.6% is a day of reckoning,” said El-Erian. “You cannot ignore 8.6% inflation.” Wednesday’s 75 bps hike followed two previous increases this year, a 25 bps hike in March and a 50 bps hike in May.

Thursday’s comments are not the first the economist has made about inflation this week. On Sunday, he appeared on CBS’s Face the Nation to explain that expert predictions had been too optimistic with regard to inflation. “And I fear that it’s still going to get worse,” he said. “We may well get to 9% at this rate.”

On Squawk Box,” El-Erian said the Swiss National Bank’s interest rate hike was actually more significant than the Fed’s. “The Swiss National Bank always fights a strong currency,” he said. “For it to get ahead of the ECB and hike not 25, but 50, shows you that we are in the midst of a secular change.”

In terms of the U.S. specifically, El-Erian said there are three tests to determine whether the Fed has gotten control of inflation. The first is to ask if financial conditions have tightened, which El-Erian said they have. The second is to ask whether they’ve tightened in an orderly way; El-Erian said it’s been slightly disorderly.

The third is to ask whether the bank has been leading or lagging with regard to its approach to inflation. “As long as the Fed lags the process, it’s going to be problematic for markets,” he said.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com
U.S. Companies Awarded Record $1.93 Billion in Annual Contracts with the UN



New research released by the Better World Campaign today found that U.S. businesses won over $1.93 billion in procurement contracts with the United Nations in 2020, by far the most of any country around the world.


WASHINGTON, June 16, 2022 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- New research released by the Better World Campaign today found that U.S. businesses won over $1.93 billion in procurement contracts with the United Nations in 2020, by far the most of any country around the world.

In order to carry out its global operations, the UN purchases an array of goods and services from private vendors, including telecommunications equipment, financial services, construction, food production, medical care, office equipment, and armored vehicles.

"This data demonstrates that the UN is not only a critical forum where the U.S. engages with the world — it is also a good business partner," said Peter Yeo, President of the Better World Campaign.

New York, New Jersey, Maine, Virginia, Georgia and California all received significant UN contracts in 2020. Cisco, Merck, Procter & Gamble all won significant contracts, with the largest procurement contract won by Pfizer, headquartered in New York City, worth $254.6 million.


"It is no surprise that the largest share of contracts are located in areas that surround the UN's headquarters. But transactions are also happening in Ohio, Texas, Rhode Island and North Carolina, demonstrating the many connections the UN has across the country in a wide variety of sectors," Yeo added.

Considering all global suppliers, the largest procurement sectors included Health ($5.5 billion); Construction, Engineering, and Science ($3.01 billion); Food and Farming ($2.5 billion); Transportation and Storage ($2.3 billion) — all of which saw increases from 2019.

Ninety-four Senators and 227 members of the House of Representatives have at least one company headquartered in their district or state that are directly benefiting from doing business with the UN.

The $1.93 billion procured in 2020 is an 11 percent increase from 2019 ($1.74 billion), due in part to the World Health Organization's procurement of goods and services to battle COVID-19.

For more on how each state fared, click here.

About the Better World Campaign

The Better World Campaign, an initiative of the Better World Fund, works to strengthen the relationship between the United States and the United Nations. It encourages U.S. leadership to enhance the UN's ability to carry out its invaluable international work on behalf of peace, progress, freedom, and justice. For more information, visit http://www.betterworldcampaign.org.

###

Media Contact

Kelli Meyer, Better World Campaign, kmeyer@unfoundation.org

SOURCE Better World Campaign