It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Thursday, December 22, 2022
Thu, December 22, 2022
The chairman of Egypt's Suez Canal on Thursday affirmed the waterway is "not for sale", in a bid to allay fears over a draft law under discussion in parliament.
On Tuesday the legislature approved in principle a bill proposed by the government seeking to establish a sovereign wealth fund "that can carry out all economic and investment activities" for the Suez Canal Authority.
The draft bill has sparked wide debate on social media. Many fear the fund would undermine the state's sovereignty over the waterway which accounts for roughly 10 percent of global maritime trade and is a vital source of foreign currency for economically-battered Egypt.
Suez Canal Authority chairman Osama Rabie said in a news conference on Thursday that the canal cannot be "sold, leased or borrowed for collateral".
He added the purpose of the fund is to invest in mega-projects.
The proposed bill comes with Egypt's economy struggling under growing foreign debt, and the local currency plunging against the dollar.
In October the government said Egypt had clinched a $3 billion loan deal with the International Monetary Fund conditioned on a currency depreciation and state subsidy cuts.
Economist Hani Tawfiq suggested in a Facebook post that the purpose of the proposed sovereign fund would likely be to "exchange state debt for bonds issued by the fund (and) guaranteed by Suez Canal revenues".
Rabie nonetheless denied this in his press conference. He said the purpose of the fund was to draw foreign investment.
But the bill has already provoked widespread anger among Egyptians on social media, where it was among the top trending topics all week.
Former Suez Canal chairman Mohab Mamish said the new law would be "impossible to implement and opens the door to unprecedented changes... that allow for the presence of foreigners in the Suez Canal's management".
The foreign investors could "change the system upon which the canal's management has been based for years and which has returned record profits", Mamish said in remarks published by local media.
Sending Rescue Ship to ISS to Replace Damaged Soyuz May Take About One Month, Source Says
Veteran leader Benjamin Netanyahu formed a new Israeli government on December 21, the most right-wing coalition in Israel's history -
by Guillaume Lavallee
December 22, 2022 — Jerusalem (AFP)
Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu has formed a coalition government but concerns are growing at what power he will exercise over his far-right allies, as violence surges in the occupied West Bank.
The incoming government, which veteran hawk Netanyahu announced he had formed late Wednesday, is expected to be the most right-wing in Israel's history.
It has sparked fears of military escalation in the West Bank amid the worst violence in the Palestinian territory for nearly 20 years.
Netanyahu's Likud party secured the mandate to form a government in the November 1 election, with backing from ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties and Religious Zionism, an extreme-right alliance of minor parties.
Leading voices within the new coalition will include Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben Gvir, two leaders of the Religious Zionism bloc who occupy the extremity of Israel's political right.
Both live in Israeli settlements inside the West Bank, and will respectively take charge of settlement policy and national security.
At least three senior Western diplomats have told AFP they are concerned about the security impact of Ben Gvir's role within the government.
- 'Escalation' -
Ben Gvir's post as national security minister will include responsibility for Israel's police, which includes the border guard who, along with the Israeli army, operate inside the West Bank.
In recent weeks Israel's press has highlighted the risk of having "two" separate armies in the West Bank, with the army on one side and the border guard on the other.
But former Israeli general Amir Avivi, who now runs a network for former security officials, believes the command structure of Israel's forces will not be threatened.
"I don't see any scenario in which Ben Gvir will lead border guard operations" in the West Bank, he said.
However, Palestinian analyst Khaldoun Barghouti said the question was not about the structure of Israel's security forces -- but rather Israel's policies on settlements and annexations of Palestinian territories in the West Bank.
"This Israeli government will lead to an escalation, because the position of Ben Gvir and Smotrich will destroy the possibility of a Palestinian state," he said.
At least 150 Palestinians and 26 Israelis have been killed this year across Israel and the West Bank, including Israeli-annexed east Jerusalem.
A further 49 Palestinians were killed during three days of fighting between Gaza militants and Israel in August.
According to United Nations data, 2022 has been the deadliest year since the 2002-2005 Palestinian uprising, known as the Second Intifada.
- 'Third intifada' fear -
More than 475,000 Israeli settlers live in the occupied West Bank, and the UN warns their presence threatens the viability of a two-state solution to the decades-long conflict.
Smotrich has already signposted an intention to legalise a number of "wildcat" settlements that are not currently recognised by Israel.
Washington, Israel's foremost ally, said it will "unequivocally oppose" moves to expand settlements, annex areas of the West Bank or disrupt the status quo of holy sites, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned.
A point of frequent tension in annexed east Jerusalem is the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, Islam's third holiest site, known to Jews as the Temple Mount, Judaism's holiest place.
Under a historical status quo, non-Muslims can visit the sanctuary but not pray there.
"If Ben Gvir manages to convince Netanyahu, or orders the police to change the behaviour of Israeli citizens on the Temple Mount, it will lead to a third intifada," outgoing public security minister Omer Bar-Lev recently warned.
In May 2021, tensions in Jerusalem, and particularly at the Al-Aqsa compound, boiled over.
Hamas, the Islamist movement which controls the coastal Gaza Strip, launched salvoes of rockets from the enclave toward Israel, resulting in a deadly 11-day war.
The group has described as "provocations" several visits by Ben Gvir to the compound during the past year.
"I don't see Ben Gvir doing something (about the Al-Aqsa compound) without the approval of Netanyahu and the security cabinet," said Amos Yadlin, Israel's former military intelligence chief.
This is particularly true as the change of the status quo at the Al-Aqsa compound or further flare-ups risk regional repercussions, at a time when Israel is hoping to build formal ties with Saudi Arabia, as it did with the UAE and Bahrain under the 2020 Abraham Accords.
According to Yadlin, the only factors that could impact the normalisation deals are tensions at Al-Aqsa and "clashes -- by which I mean bloodshed".
France Faces Wave of Transport Strikes on Christmas Week-End
Albertina Torsoli, Bloomberg
Commuters wait at Gare de Lyon in Paris during a strike organised by SNCF controllers on Dec 2. Photographer: Stephane De Sakutin/AFP/Getty Images , Photographer: STEPHANE DE SAKUTIN/AFP
(Bloomberg) -- France is bracing for another Christmas of travel disruption after the state-owned railway operator SNCF was forced to cancel one in three TGV high-speed trains because of strikes.
The measures will be put in place on Thursday evening due to a strike notice by on-board client managers, according to the SNCF’s website. Roughly the same situation is expected Dec. 24 and Dec. 25, SNCF said.
No disruption is expected for international travel on Thalys and Eurostar trains during the period, SNCF added, aside from that caused by UK strikes. There are currently no Eurostar trains scheduled for Dec. 26 due to a strike at Britain’s Network Rail, though further walkouts planned for this week were called off Wednesday after staff received an improved offer.
The walkouts are among many taking place across various industries — especially in the UK — as inflation spirals and cost of living becomes harder to afford. While protests and demands for higher salaries are legitimate, there’s no justification for strikes at such a crucial time, French government spokesman Olivier Veran said in an interview on France Inter Wednesday.
Families are desperate to reunite after two difficult Covid-19-blighted Christmases, he said. “There should be no strikes but a truce for Christmas,” Veran said. “This is not the time to take the French hostage.”
SNCF has pledged to reimburse double the price of the lost tickets. Veran said he wasn’t yet in a position to estimate what the reimbursements will cost the company.
Air France-KLM’s French carrier also faces possible strikes in the coming two weeks, although the airline has pledged to take all its clients to their destination nonetheless.
(Updates with Eurostar strike cancellation in third paragraph.)
Hazel WARD
Thu, December 22, 2022
Lawmakers on Thursday passed a transgender rights bill allowing anyone 16 and over to change gender on their ID card, putting Spain on track to becoming one of the few countries to allow the change with a simple declaration.
Approved by 188 votes with 150 against and seven abstentions, the bill now moves to the Senate where, if left unchanged as expected, it will become law in weeks.
The bill simplifies the procedure for changing gender on a person's national identity card, allowing them to request the change based on a simple statement.
It also bans conversion therapies, promotes non-discrimination against LGBTQ people in the workplace and seeks "to advance the inclusion" of transgender women in particular who tend to be disproportionately affected.
But the text has sparked a bitter dispute among activists in Spain's powerful feminist lobby and LGBTQ equality campaigners.
In Europe, Denmark was the first country to grant such a right in 2014.
The legislation is a flagship project of the equality ministry, which is held by Podemos, the radical left-wing junior partner in the Socialist-led coalition.
"That's how history is made," tweeted Equality Minister Irene Montero, thanking "the feminist majority" alongside a snapshot of the vote count and footage of LGBTQ campaigners applauding.
- 'Transphobia' -
A strong advocate of gender self-identification who has denounced opposition to the law as "transphobia", Montero has said the law would "depathologise trans lives and guarantee trans people's rights".
Until now, adults in Spain have been allowed to request the change with a medical report attesting to gender dysphoria and proof of hormonal treatment for two years, while minors needed judicial authorisation.
But the bill drops that requirement and lets anyone from the age 16 freely change their designated sex on their ID card. Even those as young as 12 can apply, but only under certain conditions.
After submitting the request, the applicant must confirm the demand three months later, then it will become valid.
Adopted by the cabinet in June 2021, the bill has sparked tensions between Podemos, the driving force behind the legislation, and the Socialists in Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's government who have tried to modify it.
It has also divided the feminist movement between those supporting Montero and the powerful feminist lobby allied with the Socialists who are opposed to the text.
One of the most vocal opponents was Sanchez's former deputy Carmen Calvo, who abstained, telling local media she could never vote with the right-wing but could not bring herself to vote in favour of the bill.
- 'Neither voluntary or optional' -
"When gender is asserted over biological sex, it does not seem to me to be a step forward in a progressive direction; it seems to be a step backwards," she told El Mundo daily in September.
"The state has to provide answers for transgender people, but gender is neither voluntary nor optional."
Activists fear the law will be open to abuse and erode women's rights, allowing men who self-identify as women to compete in women's sport or request a transfer to women's prisons.
They have also raised alarm about minors having the right to self-determine gender. Under the bill, 12- and 13-year-olds need parental and judicial approval to do so, while 14- and 15-year-olds just need parental approval.
Although the Socialists pushed for an amendment that would have extended judicial authorisation up to the age of 15, it was rejected in what was widely seen as a victory for Montero and Podemos.
"The transgender law which will be approved today in parliament symbolises the Socialist party's biggest defeat by Podemos during this legislature," the conservative El Mundo newspaper said Thursday.
The centre-left El Pais said it was "one of the laws that had most strained the coalition government".
Tensions around the legislation prompted Socialist LGBTQ activist Carla Antonelli -- the first and only trans woman to serve as a lawmaker -- to resign from the party after decades of activism.
"We have seen part of the Socialist party and the feminist movement go from defending the rights of the trans minority to ruthlessly boycotting our very existence," she wrote in an op-ed published by El Pais on Thursday.
Stuart GRAHAM
Thu, 22 December 2022
Lawmakers in Scotland passed a contentious law Thursday making it easier and faster for people to change their gender, despite a rare rebellion within the ruling Scottish National Party (SNP) and "concerns" from the UK government.
The legislation, which garnered 86 votes in favour but 39 against in Scotland's devolved parliament in Edinburgh, drops the requirement for a gender dysphoria medical diagnosis in order for someone to alter their gender.
"The motion is therefore agreed and the Gender Recognition Reform Scotland Bill is passed," presiding officer Alison Johnstone said to loud applause from the public gallery.
People aged 16 and 17 will also now be allowed to change their gender, despite efforts by some Scottish lawmakers to keep the age at 18.
The law reduces from two years to three months -- or six months for 16-17 year-olds -- the time needed for an applicant to live in their new gender before it is officially recognised.
An additional three-month reflection period is also required, during which time those who have initiated or are considering altering their gender can change their mind.
Opponents of the law fear it could be a danger to women and girls, particularly around the provision of single-sex spaces.
But the Scottish government insists the legislation will not impact the Equality Act, which allows for trans people to be excluded from single-sex spaces such as changing rooms and shelters.
Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, who has faced one of the biggest internal rebellions of her eight-year tenure over the issue, said the previous system to change gender was "intrusive, traumatic and dehumanising".
- JK Rowling backed protests -
"I am a feminist. I will argue for women's rights. I will do everything I can to protect women's rights for as long as I live," Sturgeon said during a lengthy debate on the law.
"But I also think it's an important part of my responsibility to make life a little bit easier for stigmatised minorities in our country, to make their lives a bit better and to remove some of the trauma they live with on a day-to-day basis."
Rachael Hamilton, a Conservative lawmaker, said society as a whole was at risk from the law.
"While most of us around Scotland are good, decent, reasonable people, rapists are not, sex offenders are not," she said.
"It is ignorant to the extreme to believe they will not take advantage of loopholes that are ripe for exploitation."
The slow passage of the bill through the Scottish parliament has been marred by repeated protests, and seen Sturgeon pitted against Harry Potter author JK Rowling as well as some members of her own party.
Rowling, who has been accused of being transphobic and subjected to threats on social media since publishing a controversial essay on gender identity in 2020, backed protests in Edinburgh over the legislation.
Meanwhile SNP lawmaker Ash Regan, who was minister for community safety, resigned in October saying her conscience would "not allow" her vote for the law.
The UK government said on Thursday it shared "the concerns that many people have regarding certain aspects of this bill" and vowed to "look closely" at it.
London could try to block it coming into force if ministers believe the new Scottish law will conflict with UK-wide legislation.
srg/jj/fg
Thu, 22 December 2022
© Samuel Corum, AFP
A senior German official said on Thursday Twitter should join other tech firms in being directly monitored by the European Commission, saying the company’s erratic behaviour under new owner Elon Musk posed a threat to free speech.
Sven Giegold, the state secretary in charge of competition policy at Germany’s economy ministry, pointed to Twitter’s abrupt suspension of journalists’ accounts and restrictions on the access to some links.
In a letter to two European Commissioners, Giegold called on the EU to launch an investigation and said the Commission should act to prevent what he called Twitter’s “anti-competitive behaviour”.
Twitter did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The European Commission confirmed receiving the letter and said it would reply in due course, adding that it was following the developments at Twitter closely.
“General terms and conditions that change almost every hour, erratic justifications for extensive restrictions on links and the blocking of journalists threaten freedom of competition and pose a risk to freedom of expression, information and the press,” Giegold wrote on Twitter, while sharing his letter.
Musk on Tuesday said he was stepping down as Twitter chief executive.
His $44 billion takeover in October has been marked by chaos and controversy. Changes in December to Twitter’s privacy policy and the suspension - and reinstatement - of journalists’ accounts drew condemnation from news organizations, advocacy groups and officials across Europe.
(REUTERS)
FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried released on massive $250 million bond
Kevin McCoyKevin Johnson
USA TODAY
NEW YORK – Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the failed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, was released on a $250 million bond following his first appearance in federal court, where he is accused of misappropriating billions of dollars in customer funds in one of the largest fraud schemes in U.S. history.
The enormous personal recognizance bond, which federal prosecutors described as perhaps the largest ever, is to be co-signed by his parents and two other suretors, and will be secured by his parents’ Palo Alto, California, home.
As a further condition of release, Bankman-Fried must live in his parent’s home with electronic bracelet and other electronic monitoring.
He was prohibited from opening new lines of credit, businesses and barred from transactions over $1,000, except to pay lawyers.
Bankman-Fried left the courthouse in lower Manhattan Thursday afternoon.
What happened with FTX?:How Sam Bankman-Fried's alleged scheme unraveled
More:Sam Bankman-Fried's political donations totaled millions. FTX could sue to recover them.
U.S. Magistrate Judge Gabriel Gorenstein said federal law required him to accept the bond package unless he concluded there were no way to ensure Bankman-Fried would appear for trial. That was not the case, said the judge, who noted that the defndant has no history of prior arrests or violence.
"If you fail to appear in court or violate any of the conditions, a warrant will be issued for your arrest" and the bond could be forfeited, the judge warned.
Gorenstein said the release conditions, particularly the electronic monitoring, “will go very far in ensuring the defendant will be kept track of.”
“Mr. Bankman-Fried perpetrated a fraud of epic proportions” and harmed many victims, Assistant U.S. Attorney Nicolas Roos said, describing the government's case as strong and that includes multiple cooperating witnesses.
Referring to Bankman-Fried's steep fall, Roos said: “His financial assets, which were once in the billions, have diminished significantly.”
'Old-fashioned embezzlement':FTX CEO testifies to Congress; founder Sam Bankman-Fried arrested: recap
The defendant, dressed in a dark suit and tie with a light-colored shirt, accented with ankle shackles, spoke just once, to tell the judge he understood the legal proceedings.
“My client voluntarily consented to come to New York and face these charges,” defense lawyer Mark Cohen said. He called the release conditions a “strong package” that the defense accepted.
The 30-year-old one-time mogul had been held in the Bahamas following his arrest earlier this month, but was extradited to the U.S. late Wednesday to face prosecution in New York.
Two former business associates of Bankman-Fried, Caroline Ellison and Gary Wang, also have pleaded guilty to federal charges and agreed to cooperate with prosecutors investigating the alleged fraud scheme, Manhattan U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said.
Like Bankman-Fried, Ellison and Wang also have been accused of civil charges by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Before the spectacular financial collapse, Bankman-Fried was the face of FTX, a global company with more than 130 affiliates that allowed individual investors to trade cryptocurrencies, growing to be the third-largest exchange by volume. The company's commercials featured prominent celebrities, and its logo appeared on an NBA stadium and on MLB umpire uniforms.
Sam Bankman-Fried:Report: Former billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried says he's down to $100,000 in bank account
Bankman-Fried is accused of using billions of dollars of FTX funds to make personal investments and millions of dollars in contributions to political campaigns while repaying billions in loans owed by Alameda Research, a cryptocurrency hedge fund that he also founded, according to court documents.
The California man is charged with two counts of wire fraud conspiracy, two separate counts of wire fraud, and one count of conspiracy to commit money laundering.
Each of the charges carry maximum punishments of 20 years in prison.
Bankman-Fried also is charged with conspiracy to commit commodities fraud, conspiracy to commit securities fraud, and conspiracy to defraud the United States and commit campaign finance violations, each of which carries a maximum sentence of five years.
According to the SEC court complaint, Ellison, the former chief executive of Alameda Research, furthered the alleged fraud scheme by following Bankman-Fried's instructions to manipulate the price of FTT, an FTX-issued crypto security token.
Wang, an FTX co-founder and former chief technology officer, created FTX’s software code that allowed Alameda to divert FTX customer funds, and enabled Ellison to misappropriate FTX customer funds for Alameda’s trading activity, the SEC court complaint alleged.
Climate change: evaluating CO2 emissions from land use with greater precision
LUDWIG-MAXIMILIANS-UNIVERSITÄT MÜNCHEN
Determining greenhouse gas emissions precisely and consistently is essential for mitigating climate change. Due to different methods and definitions, however, the land-use-related CO2 fluxes calculated from global models deviate from the data furnished to the UN in the country reports. In their reports, for example, the countries frequently combine natural and indirect, human-caused CO2 flows on managed land. This leads to a certain amount of double-counting of natural CO2 absorption by the ground and vegetation, causing an overestimation of the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C.
A team led by LMU geographers Clemens Schwingshackl and Julia Pongratz has now harmonized the various calculation methods at country level and determined possible reasons for outstanding differences. The researchers’ analysis allows country targets to reduce CO2 emissions from land use to be evaluated with greater precision, thereby supporting the fair distribution of climate mitigation goals.
JOURNAL
One Earth
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Data/statistical analysis
ARTICLE TITLE
Separating natural and land-use CO2 fluxes at country-level to reconcile land-based mitigation estimates.
Sharpsnout seabream‘s mortality during early life stages has a genetic base
A species with an important ecological role
Peer-Reviewed PublicationUNIVERSITY OF BARCELONA
The high mortality in the early stages of life is a common phenomenon in fish and other species, but it is little studied due to its complexity. A study by the University of Barcelona and the Centre for Advanced Studies of Blanes (CEAB-CSIC) has analysed whether this mortality in the sharpsnout seabream (Diplodus puntazzo), a species of the Mediterranean with an important commercial interest, occurs by chance or whether it is genetically determined. The results, published in the journal Scientific Reports, show that the survival of this fish in the first months has a genetic basis and it is associated with the time of birth.
The study is led by Marta Pascual, lecturer at the Faculty of Biology and member of the Biodiversity Research Institute (IRBio) of the UB and Enrique Machpherson, research professor at CEAB-CSIC. Among the participants of the study are Héctor Torrado (CEAB-CSIC and IRBio), Cinta Pegueroles (IRBio), Carlos Carreras (IRBio) and Nuria Raventós (CEAB-CSIC).
A species with an important ecological role
The sharpsnout seabream is an animal that lives in rocky coastal reefs and seagrass meadows in the Mediterranean and the eastern Atlantic, where it plays a key ecological role, since it is the only Mediterranean fish with a wide prey spectrum, including preys such as sponges, echinoderms and coelenterates. In order to find out the causes for its mortality during the early stages of life, the researchers compared genomic data to phenotypic and environmental data from recruits, individuals that only settled in October after being larvae in the plankton, and survivors, six-month-old fish that had survived the winter.
The researchers analysed a total of 105 individuals from three populations along a geographical gradient, in particular in the coastal areas of Blanes, Jávea and Agua Amarga. “Analysing in three different populations the individuals that settle for the first time and those that survive enabled us to identify parallel evolutionary processes associated with environmental and phenotypical variables”, the researchers note.
The information on the analysed fish and the environments was inferred using the analysis of its otoliths, bones in the inner part of the ear. “These are bone structures that show daily growth rings that allow us to see when it catches an individual, a series of variables like when it was born and its size, when it settled and what growth rate it will have or how many days it was in the plankton; they also allow us to record environmental variables of the temperature and the lunar cycles”, they say.
The individuals that survive are the ones who are born later
The results showed clear signs of selective mortality mostly associated with birth time, sea surface temperature and growth rate during the larval stage. "It is very interesting to see that in this species, which reproduces in late summer and early autumn, the individuals that survive best are those that are born later, in cooler conditions, and grow more slowly, and mostly, that genetics is important in that survival", they add.
Using sequencing techniques, 122 loci were found to be significantly associated with these phenotypic and environmental variables in parallel in the three populations analysed. Finding parallel genomic changes between these populations supports the idea of a genetic basis for this mortality during the first six months of life. "Our study is the first to do a genomic approach and in different localities. It is very important to have this sampling, as it shows that the results cannot be due to chance", they stress.
“Therefore —they continue—, we treat different populations as survival replicates and look mostly at changes in the same direction.
A pioneer methodology
The methodology used in this study offers a prototype for future genomic and ecological studies of this and other species which will enable the researchers to assess the causes that determine selective mortality in a wild state during this early stage. “To date, there were no studies that combined the methodologies and types of sampling we used. Our study sets the bases to analyse the survival in early stages in nature, to determine whether this process is by chance or whether it is genetically determined and to understand with long-term studies how polymorphisms are maintained in the populations in the presence of selection”, the researchers note.
Sequencing project for the genome of the sharpsnout seabream genome
Although there is a high number of identified loci associated with these features, most of them have not been localized in the closest available genome to the sharpsnout seabream, which suggests that they are in poorly conserved regions and that it is necessary to have phylogenetically closer genomes for comparison. In this sense, one of the co-authors of the study, IRBio researcher Carlos Carreras, has led a study by the Catalan Initiative for the Earth Biogenome Project to sequence the sharpsnout seabream and it is currently under the annotation phase. “We hope that in the future, this helps us to identify where the loci are and the role they can play in this species’ survival”, they say.
Studies to analyse interannual variation
The continuation of this study will be to see how selection can change within and between localities and years, as, according to the researchers, there is an interannual variation that can be very important. "The fact that we have found selective mortality has led us to want to know more. We are not only obtaining the genome of the sharpsnout seabream with the quality of international standards, but we are also analysing other years. We want to see parallel evolutionary processes, and how they vary over time, as well as to see if there is local adaptation in each population. And, with all of this, we want to identify candidate genes in which we can find out their function", they conclude.
JOURNAL
Scientific Reports
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Observational study
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
Animals
ARTICLE TITLE
«Genomic basis for early-life mortality in sharpsnout seabream
Constrained future brightening of solar radiation in China and its implication for the solar power
SCIENCE CHINA PRESS
This study is led by Prof. Kun Yang (Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University). Surface solar radiation (Rs) data is the essential information for the development of solar power usage to mitigate the ongoing climate change. To meet China’s carbon neutrality goal, China has invested and planned heavily in the solar photovoltaic systems. However, future projections of Rs based on climate models contain large uncertainties due to internal climate variability, model uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty, which have not been eliminated by previous studies. Moreover, the model biases in Rs and the underlying drivers have yet to be quantified.
By integrating the high-quality observations and the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model data of Rs, the research team explored the model bias of CMIP6 models in Rs and quantified the physical causes of the model bias in China. The systematic bias in Rs in CMIP6 models is revealed to be caused by clouds and aerosols, resulting in largely uncertain projections for future changes in Rs (No.1).
To correct this effect, the team used historical biases of models to constrain the future projections of Rs under three possible future scenarios based on emergent constraints, an approach with a solid physical basis for narrowing the uncertainties of future climate projections through the combination of an ensemble of climate simulations with contemporary measurements. The constrained results substantially reduce the projection uncertainties by about 56% in the mid-21st century (No.2). Moreover, they found that the constraints using the combined effect of the TCC and Rs-clear biases can account for about 81% of the projection uncertainties using R.
Moreover, the constrained projections of Rs show a spatial pattern significantly favorable for the future solar energy layout. They found that the mean Rs change during 2050-2069 relative to 1995-2014 is brightening. Particularly in North China and Southeast China with higher power demand, the constrained projections present more significant brightening (No.3).
With increased anthropogenic forcing, the constrained future changes become weaker brightening in eastern China and more dimming in western China (No.3). “Low anthropogenic emissions under the carbon neutrality actions would not only help to mitigate global warming but also increase solar energy potential, consequently creating positive feedback for building a climate-resilient society”, Yang says.
Better estimates and uncertainties of future Rs changes improves the reliability of climate projections to facilitate effective investment of solar power in China. Their results highlight the need to consider the change in spatial pattern of future Rs when making policies or decisions associated with future solar energy deployment.
(a) The relationship between the future Rs during 2050-2069 in SSP1-2.6 (a low-emission scenario) and the historical bias in Rs during 1961-2014 for the 24 models. (b) Comparisons of raw and constrained projections of Rs in SSP1-2.6. Rs projections are constrained by the historical bias in Rs (red bars) and the historical bias in TCC and Rs-clear, respectively (blue bars). Photo credit: Yanyi He and Kun Yang.
Future changes (shading; in W•m-2) in the 20-year mean of Rs during 2050-2069 relative to the 1995-2014 mean from constrained values in three possible future scenarios, i.e., SSP1-2.6 (a), SSP2-4.5 (b) and SSP5-8.5 (c), with the 66% confidence interval shown as contour. Photo credit: Yanyi He and Kun Yang.
CREDIT
©Science China Pressicle:
Constrained future brightening of solar radiation and its implication for China's solar power
https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwac242
JOURNAL
National Science Review