The Deadly Consequences Of Saving Energy

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jan 19, 2023, 

Energy conservation in hot weather could raise mortality rates, a new study that has reviewed data from Japan showed this week.

The study, which will be published in the American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, argues that the Japanese government’s energy-saving campaigns since the country closed most of its nuclear power plants after the 2011 Fukushima disaster have led to higher death rates.

“Exploiting the electricity-saving targets across regions and over time, we show that the campaigns significantly increased mortality, particularly during extremely hot days,” study co-authors Guojun He and Takanao Tanaka wrote.

Guojun He, the director of research at EPIC-China, the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago, and an associate professor at the University of Hong Kong, said, “Climate change is already upon us and encouraging less use of air conditioning or other means of adapting to extreme temperatures can kill people living right now.

“A better approach when designing climate policies is to speed up the transition to clean energy and encourage people to use more clean energy to protect themselves, rather than limiting individuals’ electricity or energy consumption,” He added.  

Japan has regularly called on its residents to conserve energy to avoid blackouts at times of extremely high power demand, such as on hot summer days or in the winter.

Ahead of the summer of 2022, Japan called on households and companies to conserve as much electricity as possible, seeking to prevent blackouts as spare reserve capacity was expected to drop to critically low levels. Ahead of this winter, Japan called on people and businesses to repeat the energy conservation drive from the summer, as energy scarcity and LNG price inflation continued to take a toll.

Japan is now bringing back nuclear power as a key energy source, looking to protect its energy security in the crisis that has led to surging fossil fuel prices.   

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

Zelensky Questions Whether Putin Is Still Alive

By Charles Kennedy - Jan 19, 2023

Ukrainian media is citing President Volodymyr Zelensky as questioning whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is even alive and who is responsible for decision-making in Moscow these days. 

Cited by Ukrainian media during the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, Zelensky is said to have told an audience: “I don’t quite understand who to talk to and about what. I’m not sure tha the Russian president who sometimes appears against a green screen … is actually the [right] one.”

"I don't quite understand if he is alive or whether he makes decisions, or whoever else makes decisions there. What group of people [could be making any decisions in Russia]? I don't have that kind of information,” the Ukrainian president continued. 

“I just don’t quite understand with whom we are dealing. When we say ‘peace talks’, I don’t quite understand with whom [we should be negotiating],” Zelensky was quoted as saying. 

The statements, cited by Ukrainska Pravda and the Kyiv Independent, prompted a rebuttal from Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, saying that Zelensky “would prefer that neither Russia nor Putin exist”. 

Peskov insisted that the war will end when the Ukrainian regime “shows readiness to take into account the demands of Russia – which will be achieved one way or another …”

Still, Zelensky’s statement, considered to have been delivered in the heat of the moment, will have media impact and raise additional challenges for Putin at home, where speculation abounds over high-level reshuffles as Moscow’s becomes bogged down in a protracted war in which any real notion of victory remains elusive. 

Fox News surmises that Zelensky’s comments questioning whether Putin is still alive may have been rooted in the Russian president’s recent withdrawals from public events, including a traditional annual press conference that was cancelled in December. 

Earlier this week, Putin was quoted as saying that victory in Ukraine is guaranteed, while Zelenksy this week vowed to retake Crimea, the first territory that Russia occupied in 2014 to a muted Western response. 

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

Is Artificial Intelligence A Net-Positive For Carbon Emissions?

By Haley Zaremba - Jan 18, 2023

• Artificial Intelligence is already playing a major role in the energy industry with smart grids, efficiency improvements, and helping to locate new energy resources and sites.
• 
  
• Artificial Intelligence requires vast amounts of energy to fuel the training and machine learning processes that make the model useful, meaning it could add to the carbon problem.
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• Ultimately, AI can be a net positive if used responsibly and efficiently, but it needs to be implemented in a manner that is not wasteful and that considers its energy sources.

Artificial Intelligence is increasingly becoming an essential component of the energy industry. As world leaders get more serious about meeting climate goals, the energy industry is facing the mandate to completely transform the way it operates at an unprecedented scale which will require massive, complex and nuanced computing power. AI is already playing a major role in renewable energy forecasting, smart grids, coordination of energy demand and distribution, maximizing efficiency of power production, and research and development of new materials. 

A 2021 explainer from the World Economic Forum laid out three key driving factors which are “huge strategic and operational challenges to the energy system and to energy-intensive industries,” thereby making AI an essential component of the energy transition: 

1. Scale. The almost unfathomable scale of the energy transition required for rapid decarbonization: in the energy sector alone, reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions will require infrastructure investments costing between $92 trillion and $173 trillion of by 2050, according to estimates by BloombergNEF. AI has a massive role to play here, as “even small gains in flexibility, efficiency or capacity in clean energy and low-carbon industry can therefore lead to trillions in value and savings.”
2. A changing power sector. Electricity is overtaking fossil fuel-powered energy, creating new demand for highly complex computations for “forecasting, coordination, and flexible consumption” which are far beyond the capabilities of traditional grids. This is made all the more complex by the variability of renewable energies like wind and solar, as well as the changing producer-consumer relationship created by decentralized power production through solar panels. 
3. Distribution and decentralization. New demands on the grid are made all the more complex by the variability of renewable energies like wind and solar, as well as the changing producer-consumer relationship created by decentralized power production through solar panels. Decarbonization is increasingly driving “rapid growth of distributed power generation, distributed storage and advanced demand-response capabilities, which need to be orchestrated and integrated through more networked, transactional power grids.”

AI is therefore essential for the unprecedented demands of decarbonization, which will depend on an intelligent, responsive, and flexible computing system able to recognize and predict complex patterns of production and consumption. But there’s a problem. While AI is necessary to curb emissions, AI itself requires vast amounts of energy to fuel the training and machine learning processes that make the model useful. Certain single AI training models have been shown to use the equivalent of 125 New York-Beijing round-trip flights, or the lifetime carbon footprint of five cars. 

So, is AI a net positive for energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions? Not always, according to a recent report from Semiconductor Engineering. Using AI responsibly and efficiently requires a number of considerations and calculations. Starting with the simple question: does this system actually need AI? While artificial intelligence undeniably has much to offer to the energy industry, it can also be more seductive than strictly necessary in certain contexts. In the words of Semiconductor Engineering, “we can no longer afford to be profligate with our resources; we need to ensure that the benefit outweighs the cost.”

If the system in question would indeed have net benefits from AI, engineers will next have to consider where the energy for the training is sourced, whether workloads are designed efficiently and effectively, calculate and consider embedded emissions, and maximize performance per watt. 

If AI is optimized for maximum energy efficiency and trained using clean energy sources, it’s a no-brainer for the energy transition. But making responsible, effective, and climate-conscious AI capable of catalyzing the clean energy revolution will require ‘clear policy incentives,’ but these have not been forthcoming, as AI is still relatively poorly understood and somewhat mistrusted in public spheres. Employing AI to its fullest potential will require a deep understanding of the enormously positive potential benefits it offers, in addition to its potential pitfalls.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

Rising Steel Prices Threaten Wind Turbine Production

By Ag Metal Miner - Jan 19, 2023

• Volatility in steel markets is creating additional stress for wind turbine manufacturers.
• 
  
• 2022 plate prices managed to be less volatile than other steel forms.
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• Wind turbine demand is particularly strong thanks to a renewed push for green energy.

Via AG Metal Miner

The Renewables MMI (Monthly MetalMiner Index) began showing signs of a possible reversal month-over-month, edging up 3.42%. Renewable resources, meanwhile, continue to see significant global investment.

MetalMiner noted in its Raw Steels MMI that steel prices found a bottom month-over-month. This impacted the renewable resources index heavily. After all, much of the index consists of steel plate, one of the main components for manufacturing wind turbines. Other parts of the index, like silicon, dropped in price. This could have been due to the rise in Chinese COVID cases, which also caused Chinese demand to falter. Ultimately, the U.S. inventory of these renewable metals remains heavily dependent on China.

Uncertain Steel Market Holds Wind Turbine Production in the Balance

Meanwhile, wind turbine construction remains dependent on steel. Therefore, having the steel market in an uncertain place creates stress for wind turbine manufacturers. Fortunately, 2022 plate prices managed to be less volatile than other steel forms. Still, many geopolitical factors remain in play, any one of which could impact plate prices in the near and distant future.

For the moment, wind turbine demand remains strong thanks to a renewed push for green energy. As a result, steel plate demand will likely remain high as well. However, Chinese steel plate buyers should stay on guard amid rising COVID cases and staggering steel production. The ongoing energy crisis in Europe also hampered both European steel production and the global wind turbine market in 2022. Thankfully, production has yet to come to a dead stop.

Companies Pushing Renewable Resources Need Metal Supply

Blastr is a Finnish steel manufacturer whose primary focus is decarbonizing steel production. Recently, the company invested 4 billion euros (or 4.3 billion USD) into a brand new green steel production facility. Blastr hopes to aid in decarbonizing the steel production chain, which would be a massive benefit to global renewable resources. However, this particular plant will not begin production until 2026. Therefore, it will not offer any immediate relief for European steel shortages or hasten global decarbonization.

While many markets have witnessed falling demand in recent months, green energy projects can’t hope to push forward without adequate supply. This is especially true of wind turbines, which are manufactured primarily of steel.

However, some renewable energy companies continue to seek steel alternatives. Aluminum, a more lightweight option, is a good fit for floating wind farms and mills, which often require lighter materials than steel. This is especially true in deep waters where anchoring windmills to the sea bed is not an option. For example, World Wide Wind, a Norwegian startup, is currently looking to use aluminum to build offshore windmills.

That said, aluminum could find itself on shaky ground regarding renewable energy uses, at least in the short term. Thanks to the recent Indonesian bauxite export ban and China raising aluminum export taxes, the long-term outlook for aluminum remains in question. If aluminum becomes squeezed down the line, it could end up being a far more expensive solution for generating wind power.

Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel MMI

The Grain-Oriented Electrical Steel MMI traded completely flat, with no change in price between December and January.

Experts anticipate that the GOES market will grow steadily throughout 2023 and onward. Despite energy shortages in places like Europe, the energy sector shows no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, the demand for GOES and transformers will continue to rise. As other metal forms fluctuated wildly throughout 2023, GOES traded in a comparatively tight range. This was then followed by a huge spike in Q4.

By Jennifer Kary

South Korea Gains Market Share As Arms Exporter

By The Jamestown Foundation - Jan 19, 2023

• The war in Ukraine has put rearmament in NATO countries high on the agenda.
• 
  
• South Korea, already a large arms exporter has ramped up its sales to Eastern European countries.
• 
  
• Speed of delivery is one of the key factors that puts South Korean defense industries in pole position.

Russia’s large-scale war against Ukraine has become a game-changer for the architecture of international security—and not only from a regional perspective. Most recently, it provided a window of opportunity for South Korean security and energy companies to deepen engagement with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE).

Over the past few years, South Korea has witnessed rapid and spectacular growth in its arms exports. The country, which for 2017–2021 was the eighth-largest arms exporter accounting for 2.8 percent of the global share, increased the value of its exports by an enormous 177 percent as compared to 2012–2016 (Sipri.org, March 2022). What is more, as reported by the Korea Eximbank, this trend continued throughout 2022 and will most likely increase moving forward (Nikkei Asia, September 29, 2022). Yet still, for that period, only one-fourth of South Korea’s arms exports reached Europe, with the United Kingdom alone accounting for more than half of those imports (Armstrade.sipri.org, accessed January 15). This, however, may very well change as the war in Ukraine has pushed North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members to significantly and rapidly develop their military potential.

Already in June 2022, this shift began to materialize when Polish Defense Minister Mariusz B?aszczak signed agreements for the purchase of 1,000 K2 main battle tanks, 672 K9 self-propelled howitzers and 48 FA-50 light combat aircraft from South Korea. The total net value of the contracts signed by Korean companies Hyundai Rotem, Hanwha Defense and Korea Aerospace Industries amounts to $8.77 billion. This bilateral cooperation intensified even more in October 2022, when Poland decided to purchase 218 K239 Chunmoo rocket artillery systems with logistics packages and ammunition supply worth $3.55 billion. All four deals represent the largest arms contracts in the history of the Korean military industry (Polskieradio.pl, August 27, 2022).

The scale of arms purchases from South Korea is also unprecedented from the Polish perspective. Their implementation—combined with other deals from American and domestic contractors—would make Poland one of the largest non-nuclear military powers in Europe. And this is strategically critical given the ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine and the necessity to deter Moscow on NATO’s eastern flank. What is more, if Warsaw is to continue further arms deliveries to Kyiv, replacements for the donated armaments are essential. Unquestionably, Ukraine needs such assistance as it is unlikely that the war will end soon. And Poland should have the ability to sustain this aid as the Technical Modernization Plan announced in 2019 assumes that the Polish military plans to replace the vast number of post-Soviet armaments still in its arsenal, including T-72 tanks and their Polish-developed PT-91 tanks (Polska-zbrojna.pl, October 10, 2019). Around 300 of these tanks are left after Poland donated more than 200 to Ukraine. This shift is even more likely as it is counterproductive to keep four active types of tanks in the Polish arsenal. What could come next, in this context, is the replacement of the post-Soviet BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle (IFV) with the Korean-manufactured AS-21 Redback. This IFV was already tested by the Polish Armed Forces in late 2022 (Pap.pl, Nov 26, 2022).

In Poland, the South Korean offer was seen favorable for several reasons. To begin with, the Korean industry offers a rapid pace of manufacturing and deliveries. The first batch of 10 K2 tanks and 24 K9 self-propelled howitzers were already delivered to Poland in December 2022. Another “gap-filling” delivery of 180 K2 tanks will be deployed by 2025 and an additional 24 K9 howitzers by the end of 2023 (Dziennikzbrojny.pl, July 24, 2022). Warsaw expects the first 12 FA-50s to be delivered by mid-2023 (Yonhap News Agency, July 28, 2022).

In truth, the speed of delivery was one of the key arguments for the K239 Chunmoo deal as well. At first, Poland wanted to purchase 500 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), but when it became obvious that such a giant supply would be impossible in such a tight timeframe, Warsaw decided to proceed with the deal for the Korean alternative. The first batch of Chunmoo systems is expected to reach Poland sometime in 2023. Furthermore, such large-scale contracts include beneficial offset agreements. Delivery for the rest of the tanks are planned to start in 2026 and will include modernized and partly “Polonized” equipment in its K2PL version. The K2PL will be largely manufactured in newly established industrial plants in Poland. This will trigger the transfer of know-how and technologies from South Korea, which would improve the production and service capacities of the technically backward and long-neglected heavy military industry in Poland (Defence24.pl, September 23; December 9, 2022). That, in turn, would create logistical facilities that are not only essential for maintenance but could also provide an opportunity to become South Korea’s production hub for further arms deliveries to Europe, Africa and the Middle East.

A great example of this is Hanwha Defense’s aims to combine its potential with the Polish Armaments Group (Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa) in the production of the K9 howitzer. To this end, the new K9PL version will be produced in Poland starting in 2026. These two companies have already enjoyed some past cooperation, as Hanwha Defense has supplied the K9 Thunder chassis for the AHS Krab self-propelled howitzer designed in Poland. The Krab’s generally successful production, however, cannot meet the urgent requirements of the Polish Armed Forces due to the Polish Armaments Group’s low production capacity, which is only now being boosted. Nevertheless, the Polish Ministry of Defense continues to expand the purchase of home-grown howitzers (Defence24.pl, September 5, 2022). In this context, it is interesting that the K9 and Krab systems may be merged into one project, starting with development work in 2025–2026 (Dziennikzbrojny.pl, July 24, 2022).

Additionally, in striking these deals with Poland, South Korea had a “doctrinal” predominance that resulted from the Law and Justice–led government’s decision to resign from any major military purchases with its European partners. This policy has been only recently reversed as Poland acquired two observation satellites and a receiving station from French Airbus (Notes From Poland, December 29, 2022). One should not exclude, however, that such a deal may have been a one-off.

A few factors undergird such reasoning. The deal was politically motivated and most likely resulted from Warsaw’s distrust of other Western European states. This distrust was caused by Western Europe’s decades-long ambiguous policy toward Russia, which has only started to dissipate following Russia’s re-invasion of Ukraine. Furthermore, given the Polish policy of putting all its eggs in the American basket, South Korea is a political beneficiary of its close ties with the United States.

Finally, these arms purchases were in fact a “package deal.” On October 31, 2022, the Polish Energy Group (Polska Grupa Energetyczna) signed a deal on developing a nuclear plant with South Korean state-owned Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power (KHNP). What is more, KHNP vice director added that the offer included additional investments in the semiconductor, battery and hydrogen industries (Energetyka24.pl, July 22, 2022). Additionally, the Korean offer was much cheaper that its, for example, German equivalent (Nikkei Asia, September 9, 2022).

As Russia’s war against Ukraine moves into a more protracted phase, the Korean-Polish deal represents only the tip of the iceberg for the overall impact South Korea’s arms exports could have for defense and security in Central and Eastern Europe.

By The Jamestown Foundation

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY 

Rio Tinto, OZ Minerals and Boliden select glycine leaching technology to manage tailings

Staff Writer | January 19, 2023 | 

Boron tailings. Image courtesy of Rio Tinto


Draslovka Holding, a Czech company specializing in CN-based specialty chemicals, including sustainable solutions for the metal mining industry, announced Thursday that its glycine leaching technology has been selected to be part of the OZ Minerals’ Think & Act Differently (TAD) incubator and their Waste-to-Value Challenge.

The Challenge sees Rio Tinto and Boliden working in collaboration with OZ Minerals to eliminate, minimise, reuse, or find new value in mine tailings and ultimately reduce the global carbon footprint of the mining industry, Draslovka said in a news release.

The Waste-to-Value Challenge aims to unlock innovative technologies for managing tailings, helping the mining industry to reduce risk while extracting more of the materials the world needs from what was previously regarded as waste for the energy transition at large. The initiative hopes to deliver include lower emissions and reduced waste.

Draslovka’s glycine leaching technology — GlyLeach and GlyCat Processes is an alternative to traditional acid and cyanide leaching. Due to its selectivity over gangue minerals and the recyclability of glycine, it enables the recovery of both base and precious metals from lower grade resources like tailings.

This leads to a more sustainable production process and improved economics that are needed to close the looming critical metal supply deficit, the company said.