THE HEGEMON'S GRANDE TOUR

As Yellen woos Africa, sceptics ask 'Is the U.S. here to stay?'


 U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visits Senegal

Tue, January 24, 2023
By Andrea Shalal and Carien Du Plessis

LUSAKA (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's three-country trip to Africa - the leading edge of a new diplomatic push by the Biden administration - aims to show the continent the United States is a true partner, one here for the long-haul.

But after decades of losing ground to China and the tumult of the Donald Trump years, when the former president threatened to slash aid and roll back military support, it is a tough sell.

As Africa struggles with economic headwinds caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and, notably, Washington's own monetary policy, Africans are asking for proof the United States will stay the course this time.

Yellen, so far, is at pains to make guarantees.

"I don't know how I can give assurances, honestly," she told Reuters in an interview en route from Senegal to Zambia. But Republicans and Democrats alike support long-standing initiatives, including in the areas of health and trade, she said.

Yellen's trip kicks off a year of high-level U.S. visits that will include President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, Trade Representative Katherine Tai, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo.

Washington hosted African leaders from 49 countries and the African Union at a summit in December, where Biden said the United States was "all in" on Africa's future and planned to commit $55 billion over the next three years.

African officials have broadly welcomed the United States' renewed engagement. But the timing, two years into Biden's four-year term, is viewed by many as "late and somewhat half-hearted", said Chris Ogunmodede, a Nigerian researcher and associate editor of World Politics Review.

"The fears that Biden will not follow through, or that he could lose and be replaced by a hostile Republican administration, definitely exist," he said.

CHINA, DEBT AND RATE HIKES

As the United States touts its long-standing ties to Africa and a renewed commitment to ramping up trade and investment, it's playing catch-up with China and facing a growing challenge from Russia.

Chinese trade with Africa is about four times that of the United States, and Beijing has also become an important creditor by offering cheaper loans than Western lenders.

American officials - both Democrats and Republicans - have criticised China's lending as lacking transparency and predatory.

In Senegal, Yellen warned Africa against "shiny deals that may be opaque and ultimately fail to actually benefit the people" and has accused China of dragging its feet on a critical debt restructuring in Zambia.

But U.S. fiscal policy is creating its own drag.

African countries have become collateral victims of this year's rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve, aimed at curbing inflation at home.

"Tightening financial conditions and the appreciating US dollar have had dire consequences for most African economies," the African Development Bank (AfDB) wrote in a report last week.

The cost of debt service is expected to hit $25 billion next year according to the World Bank, up from $21.4 billion in 2022. In local currency term, it's risen even faster, increasing the risk of debt distress, the AfDB stated.

African countries are also finding it harder to access capital markets to meet their fiscal needs and refinance maturing debt.

The United States, meanwhile, has largely failed to offer viable alternatives to cheap Chinese credit, officials said.

"China is an important partner," Democratic Republic of Congo Finance Minister Nicolas Kazadi told Reuters. "It is clearly shown that it's not easy to mobilise U.S. investors."

One senior U.S. Treasury official said the United States had long been engaged in Africa, funding anti-HIV work and working on other health issues. "We don't often talk about it. It's not named bridges or highways ... but if you think about just the sheer lives saved - estimates of 25 million lives saved with our engagement with (AIDS relief) - that is real."

RUSSIAN CONFLICT

African countries have largely rejected U.S. pressure to take sides in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, some of them citing Moscow's colonial-era support for their liberation movements.

Russia has blocked Ukrainian grain exports, driving up food inflation and aggravating one of the worst food crises in Africa's history, U.S. officials note.

On Friday, Yellen said in Senegal that the war was hurting the continent's economy, and that a Group of Seven-led price cap on Russian crude oil and refined products could save African countries $6 billion annually.

On Monday, though, South Africa hosted a visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and defended its decision to hold joint naval exercises with Russia and China off its east coast next month - a day before Yellen was scheduled to arrive.

"All countries conduct military exercises with friends worldwide," South Africa's Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor, standing alongside Lavrov, told reporters.

Washington, Beijing and Moscow are all courting African nations with their own interests in mind, say foreign policy experts including Ebrahim Rasool, a former South African ambassador to the United States. African leaders, hoping for greater representation in bodies like the G20 and UN Security Council, can play that game too.

"The U.S. sometimes has good intentions and meetings but not always the follow-through," Rasool said, adding that sometimes Russia and China are needed to stir the U.S. into action.

(Additional reporting by Tim Cocks in Johannesburg, Ngouda Dione in Dakar, and Karin Strohecker, Jorgelina do Rosario and Marc Jones in London; Writing by Joe Bavier; Editing by Alistair Bell)

Yellen urges Zambia debt restructuring after talks with China





Mon, January 23, 2023 
By Andrea Shalal

LUSAKA (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Monday on a visit to Zambia it was critically important to restructure its debt, and she believes progress could be made after her frank talks last week with China, which is owed almost $6 billion by Lusaka.

Yellen added that Zambia's debt overhang was a drag on its whole economy and that China had been a barrier to resolving the southern African country's debt problem - government data showed Zambia's total external debt at $17 billion at the end of 2021.

However, Yellen said she was encouraged that progress could shortly become possible following her meeting with Chinese officials in Zurich last week.

"I specifically raised the issue with Zambia (with Chinese officials) and asked for their cooperation in trying to reach a speedy resolution. And our talks were constructive," Yellen said.

She told Zambian Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane that the timely finalisation of Zambia's debt treatment was a top priority for the Treasury.

"We will continue to press for all official bilateral and private-sector creditors to meaningfully participate in debt relief for Zambia, especially China," she said.

Yellen said she was keen to continue talks with Musokotwane and other Zambian officials about Zambia's "impressive progress" on economic reforms, and how regional economic integration and deepening trade ties could support the country's growth.

However, Musokotwane said at the start of a bilateral meeting with Yellen that the debt restructuring process has been moving slowly and its outcome was not certain.

Calling for the help of global leaders to advance the restructuring process, he said it was needed to create conditions conducive to investments and to reduce pressure on Zambians to migrate.

During a meeting with President Hakainde Hichilema, who took charge in August 2021, Yellen told the Zambian leader a debt treatment deal under the Common Framework was "overdue".

A senior Treasury official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said U.S. officials believed progress was possible soon given intensified discussions with China.

However, there were two main sticking points with China, the official added: Beijing's insistence that local debt owned by foreign investors be included, and that multilateral development banks also take a haircut - both of which points have been rejected by the United States, Zambia and other countries.

In sovereign debt restructurings, multilateral lenders are usually exempted from haircuts in recognition of their special status providing concessional financing as lenders of last resort. Meanwhile treating holders of bonds within a debt restructuring differently depending on their geographic location could prove challenging and potentially unworkable.

Yellen told reporters it was important for Zambia to address corruption and human rights, and to create a business environment that would promote investment and trade.

She lauded Hichilema for making the fight against corruption an important part of his agenda. "It's something that needs continued focus," she said. "I would say the work isn't done, but there clearly has been an important focus on it."

In response, the Chinese Embassy in Zambia said "the biggest contribution that the U.S. can make to the debt issues outside the country is to act on responsible monetary policies, cope with its own debt problem, and stop sabotaging other sovereign countries' active efforts to solve their debt issues."

The comments were made in a post on the embassy's official website on Tuesday.

Yellen's meeting with Musokotwane took place at Zambia's finance ministry, where large signs with slogans such as "This is a corruption-free zone" and "Say NO to corruption. Integrity is a virtue" were on prominent display in the hallways.

Yellen is on a three-country visit to Africa. In Senegal, she said Russia's war in Ukraine was hitting Africans particularly hard by exacerbating food insecurity and putting an unnecessary drag on the continent's economy.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Writing by Anait Miridzhanian, Bhargav Acharya and Alexander Winning; Editing by Mark Porter, Stephen Coates, William Maclean)

BAM!
Spartz won’t support McCarthy in denying Omar seat on Foreign Affairs committee




Mychael Schnell
Tue, January 24, 2023 

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) said she will not support Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s (Calif.) effort to deny Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) a seat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, making matters more difficult for the GOP leader as he looks to follow through on his pledge to not seat the congresswoman on the panel.

Spartz also said she opposes McCarthy’s vow to block Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) from the House Intelligence Committee.

But while McCarthy has the power to unilaterally block Schiff and Swalwell from the Intelligence Committee, unseating Omar would take a vote of the full House, where Republicans hold only a narrow majority.

Spartz pointed to the Democratic-led moves in 2021 to strip Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) of their panel assignments — which she voted against — as a reason for her resistance.

“Two wrongs do not make a right,” Spartz wrote in a statement on Tuesday. “Speaker [Nancy] Pelosi [D-Calif.] took unprecedented actions last Congress to remove Reps. Greene and Gosar from their committees without proper due process. Speaker McCarthy is taking unprecedented actions this Congress to deny some committee assignments to the Minority without proper due process again.”

“As I spoke against it on the House floor two years ago, I will not support this charade again,” she added. “Speaker McCarthy needs to stop ‘bread and circuses’ in Congress and start governing for a change.”

McCarthy has pledged to keep Schiff and Swalwell off the Intelligence Committee and Omar from the Foreign Affairs Committee after Democrats kicked Greene and Gosar off their panels.

The Intelligence panel is a select committee, which means the Speaker assigns members in consultation with the minority leader. That authority also gives him the ability to unilaterally deny members seats on the committee. Members of the Foreign Affairs Committee, on the other hand, are chosen by each party and then ratified by the full House.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) has also expressed a coolness to denying Omar the committee seat after voting against booting Greene and Gosar from their panels in 2021.

“I’m going to treat everybody equally,” Mace told CNN. “I want to be consistent on it.”

That GOP opposition to not seating Omar on the Foreign Affairs Committee could present a math problem for McCarthy as he looks to make good on his vow in the narrowly split chamber.

Republicans can afford to lose only two more of their members, in addition to Spartz and Mace, and still deny Omar a seat on the committee. That number, however, could fall to three if Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.) — who is recovering from injuries after falling 25 feet off a ladder — misses the vote. The Florida Republican wrote on Twitter on Monday that he will be “sidelined in Sarasota for several weeks.”

In 2021, 11 Republicans, seven of whom are still in Congress, voted with Democrats to boot Greene from her committees. Former Reps. Liz Cheney (Wyo.) and Adam Kinzinger (Ill.) were the only two Republicans who voted to oust Gosar from panels.

It is unclear when the House will vote to ratify committee assignments. The House Democratic Steering and Policy Committee is scheduled to meet this week and complete committee assignments. Omar is expected to be put on the Foreign Affairs Committee, according to several sources familiar with the Democrats’ plans.

After that, the slates will go to the floor for approval.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) officially tapped Schiff and Swalwell for the Intelligence Committee in a letter this weekend to McCarthy, setting the foundation for a showdown over panel assignments for the pair.

McCarthy’s frustrations with the trio stem from different areas.

Omar, a Somali refugee, has criticized the Israeli government and its supporters in the past, leading some to accuse her of antisemitism. The congresswoman was forced to apologize in 2019 after indicating that wealthy Jews were buying congressional support for Israel.

Republicans have accused Schiff of lying to the public while leading investigations into former President Trump, and McCarthy has pointed to Swalwell’s association with a suspected Chinese spy who helped fundraise for his 2014 reelection campaign. After the FBI told Swalwell about their concerns, he put an end to his ties with the Chinese national, who left for Beijing.

Both Schiff and Swalwell played prominent roles in Trump’s impeachments.

“I’m doing exactly what we’re supposed to do,” McCarthy told reporters earlier this month, doubling down on his vows to deny the lawmakers assignments.

The Hill.

IMPERIALIST GMO HEGEMON

US Says Mexico’s Planned Corn-Import Law Change Insufficient


Eric Martin
Mon, January 23, 2023 

(Bloomberg) -- Mexico’s proposed changes to a planned ban on imports of US corn are insufficient, the Biden administration warned, saying that it continues to consider all of its rights to respond under the free-trade agreement between the nations.

“Mexico’s proposed approach, which is not grounded in science, still threatens to disrupt billions of dollars in bilateral agricultural trade, cause serious economic harm to US farmers and Mexican livestock producers, and stifle important innovations needed to help producers respond to pressing climate and food security challenges,” the US Trade Representative’s office said in a statement.

Top agricultural officials from the USTR and the Department of Agriculture met their counterparts from President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s administration in Mexico City Monday.

The Mexican government at the end of 2020 announced plans to phase out genetically modified yellow corn for livestock feed by early 2024.

In December, it offered to postpone parts of its planned ban for a year, people familiar with the situation said said at the time, asking not to be identified because the details were private.

Lopez Obrador in November had signaled that he was considering allowing imports of GMO yellow corn for livestock feed, which would provide relief for US farmers, as Mexico is their second-largest export market. Most US corn exports to Mexico are of the yellow variety, primarily used as livestock feed, while Mexico grows its own white corn, used for tortillas and other dishes.

The US National Corn Growers Association welcomed the administration’s rejection, saying that banning biotech corn would “deliver a blow to American farmers and exacerbate current food insecurity in Mexico.”

“Corn growers have become increasingly concerned that Mexico would offer a compromise removing the ban on imports of corn used for livestock feed while moving forward with the proposed ban on corn for human consumption,” the association said. Monday’s statement “shows there is no room for such a compromise,” it added.

--With assistance from Mike Dorning.

ANTI HEGEMONIC COMPETITION 

China's Huawei looks to ports, factories to rebuild sales

JOE McDONALD
Mon, January 23, 2023

TIANJIN, China (AP) — As technicians in a distant control room watch on display screens, an automated crane at one of China’s busiest ports moves cargo containers from a Korean freighter to self-driving trucks in a scene tech giant Huawei sees as its future after American sanctions crushed its smartphone brand.

The backbone of the “smart terminal” at the Tianjin Port, east of Beijing, is a data network built by Huawei, which is reinventing itself as a supplier for self-driving cars, factories and other industries it hopes will be less vulnerable to Washington's worsening feud with Beijing over technology and security.

The ruling Communist Party is promoting automation in industries from manufacturing to taxis to keep China’s economy growing as the workforce ages and starts to shrink. Its managers say the “smart terminal,” part of Tianjin's 200-square-kilometer (77-square-mile) port, allows 200 employees to move as much cargo as 800 used to.

“We believe this solution in Tianjin is the world’s most advanced,” said Yue Kun, chief technology officer of Huawei’s business unit for ports. “We believe it can be applied to other ports.”

Huawei Technologies Ltd., which makes smartphones and is the biggest global supplier of network gear for phone carriers, struggled after then-President Donald Trump cut off access to American processor chips and other technology in 2019 in a feud with Beijing about security.

Washington says Huawei is a security risk that might use its access to foreign phone networks to facilitate Chinese spying, an accusation the company denies. The United States and allies including Japan and Australia have banned or restricted use of Huawei equipment by their phone carriers.

Smartphone sales outside China collapsed after Huawei lost music, maps and other services from Alphabet Inc.’s Google that handset buyers expect to see pre-loaded. Its low-end Honor brand was sold off in 2020 in hopes of reviving sales by separating it from the sanctions on its corporate parent.

Huawei, with a workforce of almost 200,000, has held onto its status as the leading maker of network gear based on sales in China and other markets where Washington has had less success at encouraging governments to shun the company.

“Huawei is already a key player” in data networks with a “wealth of knowledge,” said Paul Budde, an industry analyst.

The company has created 20 teams to focus on factories, mines, hospitals, ports, power plants and other industrial customers. It says the auto unit has 3,000 people working on autonomous driving and invested $2 billion in the technology in 2020-21. Huawei was an early developer of “smart city” networks for traffic control and police surveillance.

“The big, black cloud here, however, is geopolitics," said Budde. "This will hamper its participation in overseas markets,” he said. “The issues are not technology but are purely political.”

American pressure on Huawei spiraled into an international standoff in 2018 after its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, daughter of its founder, was arrested in Canada on U.S. charges related to accusations of violating trade sanctions on Iran.

China arrested two Canadians on spying charges, trying to win Meng's release. They were freed in September 2021 after Meng was allowed to return to China under an agreement with American prosecutors in which she took responsibility for misrepresenting Huawei's dealings with Iran.

Huawei says its new focus already is helping to revive the company’s fortunes.

“In 2020, we successfully pulled ourselves out of crisis mode,” said Eric Xu, one of three Huawei executives who take turns as chairman, in a December letter to employees. “U.S. restrictions are now our new normal, and we’re back to business as usual.”

Last year’s revenue was forecast to be little-changed from 2021 at 636.9 billion yuan ($91.6 billion), Xu said. That was below Huawei’s double-digit growth of a decade earlier but an improvement over the 5.9% slide in the first half.

He gave no breakdown by business line, but Huawei reported 2021 sales to industrial customers of 102.4 billion yuan ($16.1 billion). Sales of smartphones and other devices fell 25.3% from a year earlier in the first half of 2022 to 101.3 billion yuan ($15 billion).

The auto unit, which supplies components and software for navigation, dashboard displays and managing vehicle systems, has played a role in five models released by three Chinese automakers.

The ruling party's urgency about rolling out automation has risen as the size of China’s working age population 16 to 59 declined after hitting a peak in 2011. That group has shrunk by about 5%. Its share of the population slid from 70% to 62%.

The Tianjin port managers told Huawei they already were having trouble finding and keeping truck drivers, according to Yue.

“This can help to address the aging population issue,” said Yue.

Yue said Huawei has talked with “people outside China” who might use its port technology, but he gave no details.

The annual market for port-related network technology is modest at $2 billion, but global sales of gear to link factory and medical equipment, cars and other devices total $600 billion a year, according to Budde. He said that has the potential to replace Huawei's lost smartphone and other telecom sales, so long as foreign buyers aren't put off by security concerns.

The Tianjin port's fleet of 88 battery-powered autonomous trucks are charged by wind turbines, according to a port spokesman, Peng Pai.

“It’s much safer, and it uses clean energy,” said Peng.

In a third-floor control room with floor-to-ceiling windows that look out over the port, a dozen operators sit in front of displays with as many as six screens showing video feeds of computer-controlled cranes lifting cargo boxes onto or off ships. Each can monitor as many as six cranes at once, unlike a traditional operator who serves only one ship.

“People had to work high up in cranes,” said Yang Jiemin, a vice president of Tianjin Port Group. “Now, our operators can sit in an office and monitor equipment remotely.”

Operators take control of a crane or truck if sensors indicate a problem, according to Huawei's Yue. He said the port’s goal is to cut that “takeover rate” to 0.1%, or one container in 1,000, while computers manage the handling of the others from start to finish.

The high-speed network allows a crane or truck to react to a command in 1/100th of a second, even though the ships are 500 meters (one-third of a mile) away from the control room, according to Liu Xiwang, manager of the port’s information department.

“You can’t feel the delay,” Liu said.

Yue, the Huawei executive, was reluctant to say whether it needs processor chips or other foreign inputs that might be disrupted by U.S. sanctions.

“I really don’t know the answer to your question,” Yue said after being asked twice about the sources of critical components. He compared it to buying a cup of coffee: “I don’t know who supplies the cup, the coffee beans and the water.”

China Reinventing Huawei 

Shipping containers are stacked at a port in Tianjin, China, on Jan. 16, 2023. As technicians in a distant control room watch on display screens, an automated crane at one of China's busiest ports moves cargo containers from a Japanese freighter to self-driving trucks in a scene Chinese tech giant Huawei sees as its future after American sanctions crushed its smartphone brand. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

U$A

Why do so many older adults choose Medicare Advantage?


 In 2022, 48% of Medicare beneficiaries were enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans instead of original Medicare, and experts predict the number will be higher in 2023. Medicare Advantage plans are offered by private insurers and bundle Medicare benefits in a way many people find appealing — but they also limit care to network providers, often require preapproval to see specialists and can saddle beneficiaries with high out-of-pocket costs for serious conditions. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais, File) 

KATE ASHFORD of NerdWallet
Mon, January 23, 2023 


In 2022, 48% of Medicare beneficiaries were enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans instead of original Medicare, and experts predict that number will be higher in 2023.

Medicare Advantage plans are offered by private insurers and bundle Medicare benefits in a way many people find appealing — but they also limit care to network providers , often require preapproval to see specialists and can saddle beneficiaries with high out-of-pocket costs for serious conditions.

The number of older adults in Medicare Advantage is also notable because financial experts tend to recommend original Medicare with medigap.

“I help my clients with Medicare choices, and what I tell them all is that if you can afford it, you should sign up for traditional Medicare with a Medicare supplement plan,” says David Haas , a certified financial planner in Franklin Lakes, New Jersey.

So why do so many people turn to Medicare Advantage for their health care in retirement? Here are the main factors.

MEDICARE ADVANTAGE IS OFTEN FREE

In 2023, 66% of Medicare Advantage plans with prescription drug coverage have no premium — versus medigap, which has a monthly premium. If you have no health issues, the choice can seem like a no-brainer.

“Medicare Advantage is extremely attractive when you’re healthy,” says Leslie T. Beck , a certified financial planner in Rutherford, New Jersey. “But when something happens — and something always happens — and you’re in a Medicare Advantage plan, you can’t switch back. You can switch into regular Medicare, but you’ll never get a medigap policy.”

PLANS ARE BUNDLED

With original Medicare, people must juggle individual pieces of coverage — Part A, Part B, Part D, medigap — but Medicare Advantage offers one-and-done simplicity: There’s one premium for everything.

Although choosing a Medicare Advantage plan feels simpler, it means you must shop again for coverage every open enrollment. “You have to include the prescription drug coverage and the doctor coverage, and you have to make this choice every year,” Haas says.

With original Medicare, Haas says, “(Y)ou do need to choose a new Part D plan, but you don’t need to reopen your entire medical equation every year the way you do with Medicare Advantage.”

MEDICARE ADVANTAGE OFFERS EXTRAS

Many Medicare Advantage plans offer additional benefits , such as money toward dental or vision care, which isn’t covered by original Medicare. About 1 in 4 people say extra benefits pushed them to choose Medicare Advantage, according to a survey by the Commonwealth Fund, a health care think tank.

“Medicare Advantage plans are heavily marketed and tout how they include all of the other services not available with medigap — prescription drug plans, subsidized health club dues, dental and vision,” says George Gagliardi, a certified financial planner in Lexington, Massachusetts. “So it seems to many people like too good of a deal to turn down.”

But the extra benefits offered by Medicare Advantage are generally pretty limited, and experts say choosing a health plan for the dental coverage and gym membership is missing the point of insurance.

“It’s not about paying for the little piddly expenses that you have,” Beck says. “It’s paying for the catastrophic expenses.”

THEIR FRIENDS CHOSE MEDICARE ADVANTAGE

Many older adults choose a Medicare Advantage plan because someone they know chose one.

“We tend to get a snowball effect,” says Andrew T. Cook, a certified financial planner in Timonium, Maryland. “One retiree made the decision, they talk to another retiree, who talks to another one, and that groupthink often leads them to conclude that if they all made the decision independently, it must have been the right decision.”

But Medicare is an area in which retirees should go beyond friends for advice. If a financial planner isn’t an option, each state has a State Health Insurance Assistance Program, or SHIP, where people can get free, unbiased guidance. Visit shiphelp.org to find a program.

MEDICARE ADVANTAGE ADS ARE EVERYWHERE

“When you talk about advice on what’s better for individuals, it’s really whose voice is the loudest and the most persistent,” Beck says. “If you’ve ever watched any late-night TV, it’s just ad after ad for Medicare Advantage.”

In addition to being prolific, the ads are increasingly misleading. Growing complaints about Medicare Advantage advertising have led the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to now require that insurers get approval from federal regulators before airing television ads.

“I watch those ads very carefully, and they basically conflate Medicare with Medicare Advantage,” Beck says. “It’s rare that they mention ‘Medicare Advantage.’”

___________

This article was provided to The Associated Press by the personal finance site NerdWallet. Kate Ashford is a writer at NerdWallet. Email: kashford@nerdwallet.com. Twitter: @kateashford.

RELATED LINKS:

NerdWallet: Medicare vs. Medicare Advantage: Which should I choose? https://bit.ly/nerdwallet-medicare-vs-medicare-advantage

The Commonwealth Fund: Traditional Medicare or Medicare Advantage: How Older Americans Choose and Why https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/issue-briefs/2022/oct/traditional-medicare-or-advantage-how-older-americans-choose

State Health Insurance Assistance Program https://www.shiphelp.org/

METHODOLOGY:

In the Commonwealth Fund’s 2022 Biennial Health Insurance Survey , people 65 and older who were enrolled in Medicare as their primary source of coverage were asked why they chose Medicare Advantage or traditional Medicare and what resources they used to choose their coverage. The survey firm SSRS interviewed a nationally representative sample of 8,022 adults 19 and older between March 28 and July 4, 2022, and this analysis focused on 1,605 respondents 65 and older who were enrolled in Medicare.

GOP CLASS WAR

Kevin McCarthy reportedly agrees to leave cuts to Social Security and Medicare off the table in debt ceiling negotiations

Ayelet Sheffey,Juliana Kaplan
Wed, January 25, 2023 

Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Kevin McCarthy agreed not to cut Social Security and Medicare in debt ceiling negotiations, Sen. Joe Manchin told reporters.

Previously, cuts to those programs were on the table as the GOP negotiated terms to raise the debt limit.

Manchin, and even former President Trump, urged the GOP to leave those programs alone.

On Wednesday, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin told reporters that Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy has agreed to leave cuts to Medicare and Social Security off the table in debt ceiling negotiations.

This came after the two lawmakers met earlier today on raising the debt limit — an issue Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been clashing over recently as they negotiate how to keep the US on top of paying its bills.

A source familiar said that the meeting between Manchin and McCarthy was good, albeit with no commitments; Manchin encouraged McCarthy to negotiate and try a find path forward that would avoid harming Americans.

The US officially reached the debt limit last week, and President Joe Biden's administration has urged House Republicans to work in a bipartisan way to keep the country from defaulting on its obligations and potentially triggering a global financial crisis and recession. But Republicans have expressed their intent to use raising the debt limit as a bargaining chip to achieve their own priorities, and previous reports indicated they were considering cutting Medicare and Social Security benefits.

However, Manchin — who has been a centrist holdout on some previous Democratic legislation — said on Sunday that he did not think Republicans should consider Medicare and Social Security in these negotiations.

"No cuts to anybody that's receiving their benefits, no adjustments to that. They've earned it. They paid into it. Take that off the table," he said. "But everyone's using that as a leverage."

Even former President Donald Trump joined the dialogue, urging Republicans in a video message last week against cutting those programs.

"Under no circumstances should Republicans vote to cut a single penny from Medicare or Social Security," Trump said in the video. "Cut waste, fraud and abuse everywhere that we can find it and there is plenty, there's plenty of it," he continued. "But do not cut the benefits our seniors worked for and paid for their entire lives. Save Social Security, don't destroy it."

McCarthy has not yet publicly commented on his discussion with Manchin, but he previously said that the reports of him considering cuts to those programs are not true.

It's still unclear what other types of cuts Republicans are considering in these negotiations. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said on the Senate floor on Monday that the GOP should reveal their intentions to the public, saying that "Republicans are talking about draconian cuts, they have an obligation to show Americans what those cuts are and let the public react. … Does that mean cuts to Social Security or Medicare or child care or Pell Grants?"

Biden is expected to meet with McCarthy regarding these negotiations, but an exact date remains unclear. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told House Republicans that the government has begun using "extraordinary measures" to keep the country afloat, but those measures are expected to run out at some point this summer — meaning the GOP needs to come to an agreement by then to avoid a catastrophic default.

Republicans' plans to slash Social Security and Medicare are becoming clearer: 'We have no choice but to make hard decisions'

Jason Lalljee
Wed, January 25, 2023 

Reports suggest that concessions Rep. Kevin McCarthy made to secure his Speaker seat involved promoting cuts to entitlement PUBLIC GOOD programs.

Kent Nishimura /Los Angeles Times via Getty Image

House Republicans have alluded to cuts they want to make to the federal budget for months.

They're becoming more explicit about those cuts involving Medicare and Social Security funds.

They've indicated that they're willing to leverage raising the debt ceiling to secure cuts. Not raising the ceiling could spell financial disaster.

After being evasive about their plans for entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare in the months leading up to midterms, the House GOP has begun to confirm its intention to cut spending on both.

That's according to The Washington Post's Tony Romm, who reported that Republican lawmakers are willing to use the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip in order to get the Biden administration to cave on spending cuts to Medicare and Social Security. Failing to raise the debt ceiling by the summer could cause the US to default on its debt for the first time in history, the consequences of which would be dire.


"We have no choice but to make hard decisions," Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma, leader of the conservative Republican Study Committee, told The Post. "Everybody has to look at everything."

The Post reported that in the past few days, a group of Republican lawmakers have pushed for House panels that would recommend changes to Social Security and Medicare.

Democrats control the Senate, and Republicans only have a slight majority in the House. But it's enough of a majority to give them power over the debt ceiling, a law restricting the amount of money the government can borrow to pay its bills.

And that's on top of the leverage that the most conservative members of the party have on the recently elected Speaker of the House, Rep. Kevin McCarthy. Conservative holdouts kept the vote for Speaker going a historically long time, and reports suggest that the concessions McCarthy made included promoting cuts to entitlement programs.

GOP leaders gave a slide presentation to Republican House members on Tuesday outlining their budget and spending priorities, CNN reported. According to a screenshot of the presentation viewed by CNN, the spending priorities were vague but mentioned reforms to "mandatory spending programs" that could include Social Security and Medicare.

Additionally, Republicans have proposed converting Medicaid and Affordable Care Act subsidies to block grants, which would cut spending by $3.6 trillion over 10 years.

"That would obviously be strongly opposed by the Senate and the White House," Edwin Park, a public policy professor at Georgetown University who focuses on health policy, told Insider, but "the holdouts were clear that they would hold raising the debt limit hostage to major spending cuts, and it is possible that smaller, damaging cuts to Medicaid could be on the table, even if the most draconian cuts are dropped."
GOP plan to leverage debt ceiling is a threat to "trigger global economic chaos"

Although Republicans have been vague about the budgetary cuts they want in recent months, it's becoming clearer that Social Security and Medicare are among their major targets, even as both programs are extremely popular among Americans.

So popular, in fact, that former President Donald Trump recently warned the GOP to keep them out of debt ceiling negotiations.

The fight to raise the debt ceiling isn't a new problem for Congress. Historically, the limit on the amount of money the government can borrow has been raised in a bipartisan fashion. But in the last decade, Republicans have begun entertaining using the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip to accomplish their own policy goals.

The White House, and Democratic lawmakers, have criticized the GOP using the debt limit to implement cuts to Medicare and Social Security.

"They claim their plan to use the debt ceiling to trigger global economic chaos is about fiscal responsibility. It's not," Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren wrote in a Boston Globe op-ed this month. "The House Republican plan for the debt ceiling is about protecting the wealthy and the well-connected from paying their fair share in taxes — nothing more and nothing less."

Treasury takes another 'extraordinary' step on debt limit

- In this image taken from a video, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen speaks during an interview with The Associated Press on Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023, in Dakar, Senegal. Yellen is in Zambia on the second leg of her African tour, a stop aimed at promoting American investment and ties while she's in a capital city that is visibly dominated by Chinese dollars. (AP Photo/Yesica Fisch, File)


JOSH BOAK
Tue, January 24, 2023 

WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sent a letter Tuesday to congressional leaders saying she's suspending the reinvestment of some federal bonds in a government workers' savings plan — an additional “extraordinary" measure to buy time for President Joe Biden and Congress to raise the nation's debt limit.

The government bumped up against its legal borrowing capacity last Thursday, prompting Treasury to take accounting steps regarding federal employees' retirement and health care plans that will enable the government to stay open until roughly June.

Yellen said in the letter that as of Monday she also determined that the government “will be unable to invest fully” in the government securities portion of the thrift savings fund in the federal employees' retirement system.

She noted that her predecessors have taken a similar action in the past, noting that by law the accounts “will be made whole once the debt limit is increased or suspended.”

But it's an open question to how the White House and Congress find common ground on the artificial cap imposed by Congress.

Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have sharp differences over how to raise the debt ceiling, setting off the possibility of the extraordinary measures being exhausted this summer and risking a government default that could wreak economic havoc.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell has said the U.S. will not default, but it's unclear how Biden can reconcile his insistence on a clean increase with McCarthy's demand for spending cuts.

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said at Monday's news briefing that Biden is “happy to talk to anyone who wants to deal” with deficit reduction in a “responsible way.”

But Jean-Pierre said that deficit reduction should not be tied to whether the U.S. government pays its bills that are already being incurred.

“It must be done without conditions,” Jean-Pierre said, adding, “President Biden will never — will never allow Republicans to cut benefits that our hardworking Americans have earned. This is what they have earned.”

McCarthy has yet to outline the scope or the specifics of the cuts that House Republicans would like to see, although any final plan would need to pass the Democratic-controlled Senate and receive Biden's signature.

"Families and businesses have to live within a budget — Washington must as well," McCarthy tweeted on Sunday.

Debit Limit Ceiling Crisis Could Hit Your 401(k), Social Security and Medicare

Ashlyn Brooks
Tue, January 24, 2023 

americas-debt-ceilin-crisis-SmartAsset

America's debt ceiling was reached - again - on January 19, 2023 as the country exceeded its $31.4 trillion spending cap. The cap was raised to that amount in December 2021. As much terms like "ceiling" and "cap" are used in this discussion, the truth is this limitation is more of a temporary hindrance than a cut-off - the cap has been raised 78 times since 1960.

While this may seem like a topic outside of your realm of concerns, the longstanding effects of not having this ceiling raised again have a strong potential to bleed over into your personal finances - namely your 401(k), Social security and Medicare.

What Is America's Debt Ceiling?

The national debt ceiling is the legal limit on the amount of debt that the U.S. government can incur. This limit is set by Congress and is intended to ensure that the government does not spend more money than it takes in. However, when the government reaches the debt ceiling, it can no longer borrow money needed to run the government.

America's Debt Ceiling Crisis

Raising the debt ceiling isn't a swift single-step process, it requires a series of steps through multiple parties, and in recent years it has been contentious. The full process looks like this:

The Treasury Department forecasts when the government will reach the debt ceiling and notifies Congress.


The President submits a request to Congress to raise the debt ceiling.


The House of Representatives and the Senate hold hearings to discuss the need to raise the debt ceiling and potential alternatives.


Both chambers of Congress vote on a bill to raise the debt ceiling.


If the bill passes both chambers, it is sent to the President for signature.


If the President signs the bill, the debt ceiling is raised.

Ultimately, it's up to the president and Congress to agree on lifting the ceiling and by how much. Time is a factor, though. If negotiations carry out too long, the U.S. can default on its debt, yielding repercussions throughout the economy and government programs.

raising-americas-debt-ceiling-SmartAsset

Impact on 401(k)s

The impact on 401(k)s is a direct one since the value of a 401(k) relies on the success of the stock market. If the government is unable to raise the debt ceiling, it may default on its debt obligations, which can lead to a loss of confidence in the U.S. economy.

This, in turn, can cause the stock market to drop, leading to a decrease in the value of 401(k)s. As a result, a default on debt obligations could lead to long-term effects on 401(k)s, as investors may be less likely to invest in the stock market in the future.

Impact on Social Security and Medicare

Social Security and Medicare are also at risk if the debt ceiling is not raised. These programs are funded by the government, and if it is unable to borrow money, it may have to cut spending on these programs. This could lead to reduced benefits for recipients of Social Security and Medicare. This could have a significant impact on seniors and those who rely on these programs for their livelihood.

Keep in mind, the debt ceiling does not affect the amount of debt the government incurs; it only limits the government's ability to borrow more money to finance existing debt. The government can still spend money on programs such as Social Security and Medicare even if the debt ceiling is not raised. However, if the government is unable to borrow money to finance its existing debt, it may have to cut spending on these programs in order to meet its financial obligations.

The Bottom Line

While it benefits no one to see the U.S. default on its existing debt, the fact still stands that issues such as the debt ceiling are commonly used as political bargaining chips which only further complicates the proceedings.

The U.S. Treasury has since stepped in to institute necessary measures to buy Congress a few months to carry out negotiations. However, close calls are never settling, and, amid real implications for Americans' retirement accounts and entitlement programs, it brings up many concerns as to how dependent Americans are on government debt to supplement their retirement.

Photo credit: ©iStock/Douglas Rissing, Dilok Klaisataporn

Putin Lackeys Lose Their Minds Over Ukraine Getting Battle Tanks

Allison Quinn
Wed, January 25, 2023 

Getty

It didn’t take long for Russian officials to start foaming at the mouth and ranting about global conspiracies after Germany agreed to deliver its Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine on Wednesday.

After weeks of resistance, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that, along with allies, the country would provide 88 of the battle tanks to Ukraine, effectively giving Kyiv more firepower to launch new offensives. The Biden administration was also expected to announce a deal to send 30 M1 Abrams tanks to the country.

The Russian Embassy in Berlin was among the first out of the gate after the news broke—offering a bizarre, if not deranged, take: “Berlin’s decision signifies the unequivocal refusal of the Federal Republic of Germany to recognize historical responsibility to our people for the terrible, timeless crimes of Nazism,” Russian Ambassador Sergei Nechayev said in a statement.

The statement went on to say the tanks would also put an end to “postwar reconciliation between Russians and Germans” and “take the conflict to a new level of confrontation.”

Kremlin mouthpiece Margarita Simonyan, the editor-in-chief of RT, joined Russian diplomats in offering up far-fetched Nazi comparisons.

“After a flogging by Washington, Germany will send 14 tanks to Ukraine. Closer to summer, deliveries of gas chambers are also expected,” Simonyan tweeted.

TV propagandist Vladimir Solovyov called European leaders “Nazi scumbags” and argued that the delivery of Leopard tanks to Ukraine makes all of Germany a “legitimate” military target for Russia.

He claimed Germany has “forgotten its historical guilt” and must pay for it.

Sergei Aksyonov, the Kremlin’s man in charge in occupied Crimea—one of the territories Ukrainian authorities may use the tanks to take back—published what he said were the schematics of Germany’s Leopard 2A4 tank on Telegram.

Swarm of Tanks Is Just the Start of Putin’s New Nightmare

“I am sure that everyone will be able to find more detailed information about the vulnerabilities of this… on their own, and the command will provide our fighters with everything necessary to destroy the descendants of the fascist ‘Tiger’ and ‘Panther’ [tanks used in WWII],” Aksyonov wrote.

Pro-Kremlin pundits unanimously bent themselves into knots (and broke their brains) trying to prove a global Nazi conspiracy.

“Tank conspiracy. 14 Challenger tanks will be supplied by Britain to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And it was also announced that Germany will supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with 14 Leopard tanks. Is this some kind of secret number they have, 14? It turns out yes. 14 is a secret fascist number,” wrote political analyst Sergei Markov, noting that 14 “is the number of words” in two slogans used decades ago by the American neo-Nazi David Lane.

“Thus, the number of Challenger and Leopard tanks is a secret message from the governments of Britain and Germany: ‘We know that these tanks are for the Nazis,’” Markov said.

He did not explain how his “14” theory holds up in light of several other countries sending an entirely different number of tanks.

Is 30—the number of Abrams tanks reportedly to be supplied by the U.S.—also a “secret” fascist number? The Kremlin has yet to confirm, though Vladimir Putin’s spokesman on Wednesday blasted the purported deal for U.S. tanks as “absurd” and bound to fail.

“This is a really disastrous plan, and most importantly, this is a clear overestimation of the potential this will give to the armed forces of Ukraine,” spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to Russia’s Interfax news agency.

The Abrams tanks, he said, “will burn just like all the others.”

Despite Peskov’s bluster, some pro-Kremlin military bloggers appeared fully aware the tanks could give Ukrainian forces a new competitive edge on the battlefield.

“The ice has broken and NATO tanks are heading to Ukraine. It looks like all the arguments about who would be the first to send them led to everyone sending them all at once,” wrote one popular pro-war Telegram channel.

Russians Urged to Keep Kids Indoors—as Wagner’s Freed Convicts Come Home

Other prominent figures appeared to suggest the decision to send tanks simply means the rest of the world isn’t frightened enough of Russia.

“Russia’s impotence in the field of foreign policy must be compensated for with military successes. Or the threat of military success. Or just a threat,” argued state TV host Sergei Mardan.

“Why not then arrange a random visit to Estonia of a Russian tank squadron, or a guided-missile cruiser in the Gulf of Riga? Or a random flight of Kalibr [cruise missiles] over all of Poland? Then we don’t even need to apologize, no one needs our apologies. We need local horror and an understanding that Russia is unavoidably nearby and stronger than ever.”

The Daily Beast.

Germany to send Leopard tanks to Kyiv, allow others to do so - sources


 German Chancellor Scholz visits German army training at a military base in Bergen

Tue, January 24, 2023

BERLIN (Reuters) -German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has decided to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine and allow other countries such as Poland to do so while the United States may supply Abrams tanks, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters.

A government spokesperson, the foreign ministry and the defence ministry declined to comment.

The decision concerns at least one company of Leopard 2 A6 tanks that will be provided out of Bundeswehr stocks, said Spiegel magazine, which first reported the news. One company usually comprises 14 tanks.

"Today the Chancellor made a decision that no one took lightly. The fact that Germany will support Ukraine with the Leopard tank is a strong sign of solidarity," Christian Duerr, parliamentary leader of the co-governing Free Democrats (FDP) was quoted as saying by t-online news portal.

"The #Leopard's freed!," Katrin Goering-Eckardt, vice president of the Bundestag, tweeted, sharing a link of media report on the news.

Other allies, in Scandinavia for example, intend to go along with Germany in supplying their Leopard tanks to Kyiv, the magazine reported.

In the longer term, more tanks could be restored to be fit for use, according to the magazine.

U.S. officials told Reuters that Washington may soon drop its opposition to sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine, in a move intended to encourage Germany to follow.

The Pentagon declined to comment on any coming announcements on the Abrams. It also declined to comment on whether Germany might green light deliveries of the Leopards.

Defence "Secretary (Lloyd) Austin did have very productive conversations with his German counterpart when he was in Germany" for meetings last week, Brigadier General Patrick Ryder told a news conference.

(Reporting by Riham Alkousaa, Andreas Rinke, Holger Hansen in Berlin, Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali in Washington; writing by Sabine Siebold; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

Tank maker Rheinmetall raises sales view, asks Berlin for firm orders



Germany delivers its first Leopard tanks to Slovakia, in Bratislava

Tue, January 24, 2023
By Anneli Palmen and Christoph Steitz

DUESSELDORF/FRANKFURT (Reuters) - German defence group Rheinmetall on Tuesday raised its sales expectations for 2025 on higher demand for weapons due to the war in Ukraine and called on Berlin to speed up planned big orders and make good on a pledge to boost its armed forces.

The comments by Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger come as Germany has earmarked 100 billion euros ($109 billion) to bring its military back up to scratch after decades of attrition since the end of the Cold War.

They also come as Germany comes under pressure to step up defence supplies to Ukraine, including Leopard tanks manufactured by Rheinmetall together with Krauss-Maffei Wegmann.

Papperger said Germany's investment plans needed to be mapped out quickly and that Chancellor Olaf Scholz's plan to upgrade Germany's troops needed to start properly this year.

"The entire German industry is ready. The resources are there, the people are there, we also have the know-how," Papperger said at an industry event hosted by German business daily Handelsblatt.

He said what was needed now was close coordination with the German government so defence companies such as Rheinmetall, which spent 700 million euros in capacity expansion and hired 2,000 new staff last year, have planning security.

GRAPHIC: Rheinmetall shares rally - https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xmvjklwaxpr/rheinmetall.PNG

Papperger told German magazine Stern that he expects sales to grow to between 11 billion and 12 billion euros ($12 billion to $13 billion) in 2025, up from a range of 10 billion to 11 billion euros given by the company in November.

For 2022 the company expects sales of 6.5 billion euros.

UKRAINE

Rheinmetall has so far supplied Ukraine with air defence systems, which are also used to combat drones, along with various types of ammunition, military trucks and a field hospital, Papperger told the magazine.

He added that the group had also sold Leopard tanks and Marder infantry fighting vehicles as well as trucks as part of a swap system whereby countries that still have Soviet equipment hand it over to Ukraine and Germany backfills with more modern Western equipment.

Papperger said that while the company was in theory able to produce more artillery ammunition than the United States, it has "not received a single order".

MORE TANKS

Germany has so far resisted pressure from Ukraine and some NATO allies, such as Poland, to allow Kyiv to be supplied with German-made Leopard 2 tanks to defend itself against Russia.

The Leopard 2 battle tank is armed with Rheinmetall's 120mm smoothbore gun and the company also supplies ammunition, fire control technology and C4I systems for it.

A company spokesperson told media group RND that it could deliver 139 Leopard tanks to Ukraine if needed.

Rheinmetall could send 29 Leopard 2A4 tanks by April/May and a further 22 around the end of this year or early 2024, the spokesperson was quoted as saying.

It could also supply 88 older Leopard 1 tanks, the spokesperson said, without giving a timeframe for potential delivery.

Asked how much the company earns from Leopard 2 battle tanks, he said Rheinmetall was targeting a profit margin before tax of at least 10%.

"We're working for national and European security - and that includes fair prices," the 59-year-old Papperger said.

Rheinmetall, which also makes Marder infantry fighting vehicles, could gain further from the 100 billion euro defence spending plans announced by Chancellor Scholz shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine.

However most of those plans, hailed at the time as a new era of more assertive German foreign policy backed by military spending, are still unclear.

UBS last week downgraded Rheinmetall to "neutral" from "buy". It said positives, including mid-term defence spending, had been priced into the stock.

Its shares have risen 170% in the past year.

Further upside depends on the order flow from the government's spending plans, which is not yet reflected in Rheinmetall's order log, the bank said.

($1 = 0.9210 euros)

(Reporting by Anneli Palmen and Christoph Steitz; Additional reporting by Josephine Mason and Sabine Siebold; writing by Madeline Chambers; editing by David Goodman and Jason Neely)

Germany approves transfer of Leopard tanks to Ukraine, Spiegel reports

Tue, January 24, 2023 

Leopard-2 at military exercises in Poland

The German government previously said it would consider the matter and arrive at a decision on Jan. 25.

Read also: Rheinmetall ‘ready to send 139 Leopard tanks’ to Ukrainian army

Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak, wrote on Telegram that Ukraine needs Western tanks to restore its territorial integrity.

“Several hundred tanks for our crews, the best tank crews in the world,” said Yermak.

“This would be a real strike of democracy against autocracy from the northern swamps.”

Citing an unnamed Ukrainian official, ABC news previously reported that representatives of 12 countries agreed to supply Ukraine with around 100 German-made Leopard-2 tanks, pending Germany’s approval.

Read also: Baltic countries call on Germany to deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine as soon as possible

Earlier on Jan. 24, The Wall Street Journal reported Washington is leaning towards supplying Ukraine with a “significant” quantity of Abrams M1 main battle tanks, with the corresponding announcement expected within days.

Defense ministers of Ukraine’s international partners gathered at the U.S. Air Force Ramstein base in Germany on Jan. 20, discussing the ongoing and future efforts to equip Kyiv’s troops with modern weapons.

Following the summit, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that countries have achieved “a positive breakthrough” regarding the Leopard-2 tanks. He explained that the meeting participants agreed that countries with Leopard 2s in service could begin training Ukrainian tank crews.

Read also: US, Germany stuck in standoff over sending tanks to Ukraine — media reports

Following numerous Ukrainian requests, Poland has decided to transfer German-made Leopard main battle tanks to Ukraine, Polish President Andrzej Duda said during his visit to Lviv, Ukraine, on Jan. 11, where he met with his Ukrainian and Lithuanian counterparts, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Gitanas Nauseda.

Earlier in January, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak decided to provide Ukraine with 14 Challenger 2 tanks, making the United Kingdom the first Western country to equip Kyiv with modern heavy tanks.

Read the original article on The New Voice of Ukraine


A look at Leopard 2 tanks that could soon be sent to Ukraine


German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks to soldiers in front of a Leopard 2 main battle tank after the Army's training and instruction exercise in Ostenholz, Germany, Monday, oct. 17, 2022. Germany has become one of Ukraine's leading weapons suppliers in the 11 months since Russia's invasion. The debate among allies about the merits of sending battle tanks to Ukraine has focused the spotlight relentlessly on Germany, whose Leopard 2 tank is used by many other countries and has long been sought by Kyiv. (Moritz Frankenberg/dpa via AP, FILE)

JAMEY KEATEN and FRANK JORDANS
Mon, January 23, 2023 

GENEVA (AP) — Following intense pressure from its allies, Germany appears to be inching toward approving deliveries of high-tech Leopard 2 main battle tanks that Ukraine and its biggest Western backers hope will boost Kyiv’s fight against Russian invaders.

Over the weekend, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Berlin would not get in the way if Poland — arguably Ukraine's most vocal supporter among European Union neighbors — wants to ship Leopard 2 tanks from its arsenal across the border into Ukraine. And Germany is not ruling out supplying such tanks to Ukraine itself, cautioning however that the implications of such a step need to be carefully weighed.

Here's a look at what those tanks might mean for Ukraine's defense against Russian forces — and hopes for driving them out.

WHAT IS THE LEOPARD 2?

Germany's Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, the manufacturer of the Leopard 2, touts it as “the world's leading battle tank" that for nearly a half-century has combined aspects of firepower, protection, speed and maneuverability, making it adaptable to many types of combat situations.

The 55-ton tank has a crew of four and a range of about 500 kilometers (310 miles), and top speeds of about 68 kilometers per hour (about 42 mph). Now with four main variants, its earliest version first came into service in 1979. Its main weapon is a 120mm smooth bore gun, and it has a fully-digital fire-control system.

HOW MANY COULD BE SENT TO UKRAINE?

One big appeal of the German-made tanks are their sheer number: More than 2,000 have been deployed in over a dozen European countries and Canada. Overall, Krauss-Maffei Wegmann says over 3,500 units have been supplied to 19 countries.

Rheinmetall AG, a German defense contractor that makes the 120mm smoothbore gun on the Leopard 2, says the tank has been deployed by “more nations than any other."

According to a recent analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based global think tank, some 350 Leopard 2s — in different versions — have been sent to Greece, and Poland has about 250 of varying types. Finland has 200 in operation or in storage.

For Ukraine's war against Russia, “it is believed that for the Leopard 2 tanks to have any significant effect on the fighting, around 100 tanks would be required,” the International Institute for Strategic Studies analysts wrote.

Ukraine's defense minister wants 300 tanks, and some European Union leaders support him on that.

“We need a fleet of 300 tanks,” Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn said Monday in Brussels, alluding to the wide deployment of Leopards across Europe and the need for “synchronous” weaponry — that can operate smoothly together.

Getting Leopards into Ukrainian hands isn't as easy as rolling them across the border from friends farther West in Europe. The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates that three to six weeks of training would be needed for operating crews and support staff to reach basic proficiency.

Ralf Raths, director of the Panzer Museum in Munster, Germany, said experienced Ukrainian tank crews would likely be able to learn to use the Leopard 2 fairly quickly, and training could be shortened to focus on essential knowledge.

“Do you really have to exploit 100% of the potential or is it enough to utilize 80% in half the time? Ukrainians will certainly vote for option B,” he said.

WHAT DIFFERENCE WOULD IT MAKE TO THE WAR?

Yohann Michel, a research analyst for defense and military affairs at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said such tanks could allow Ukraine to go onto the offensive in the 11-month-old conflict that has been stalemated for months following two key Ukrainian counteroffensives that recaptured areas occupied by Russian forces for months in the northeast and south.

“In this type of conflict, it's just not possible to carry out large-scale offensives without the full variety of armored combat equipment and armored vehicles, and tanks are a part of that," he said. In addition to Main Battle Tanks, or MBTs, like the Leopard 2, others include infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers.

Western deliveries of Leopard 2s could help equip Ukraine with needed high-caliber munitions to replace its own dwindling Soviet-era stockpiles, opening a new avenue for supplies of Western firepower to get to Ukraine, he said.

Raths noted that the Leopard 2 and similar Western tanks are more agile than T-models used by Russia, which can't reverse at speed, for example.

“Imagine a boxer who cannot move freely in the ring, but only in one direction,” he said. “The other boxer, who can move in all directions, has a big advantage and that it is the case with the Leopards.”

Still, even Western MBTs are vulnerable to aerial attacks, or anti-tank infantry while in forests and urban areas, highlighting the importance of anti-aircraft and reconnaissance support, said Raths.

With similar numbers of tanks on both sides, Leopards 2 and similar tanks could give Ukraine the upper hand, especially given the poor tactical performance of Russian troops during the war, he said.

“The Ukrainians shine through creative, dynamic and often very clean warfare,” Raths said. “So it could well be that if Ukraine’s operational offensive were to begin, the Russians would have real problems countering it.”

Niklas Masuhr, a researcher at the Center for Security Studies at Switzerland’s federal polytechnic university ETHZ, based in Zurich, cautioned that the addition of Leopards to the battlefield alone wouldn’t be “a game changer or a war-winning technology, anything like that.”

“You can’t just deploy a bunch of main battle tanks and assume they will win,” he said. “They’re very valuable, but you still need to use them in the correct way and integrate them with all the other military tools that you have at your disposal,” such as infantry, artillery, air defense, combat engineers and helicopters.

WHY DOESN'T UKRAINE HAVE LEOPARDS ALREADY?

Germany has final say about whether Leopard 2s can be delivered — even from other countries' arsenals — and has been reticent about anyone shipping them to Ukraine.

More-hawkish Western allies have been stepping up the pressure on Germany, but the United States has also refused to send its powerful M1 Abrams tanks.

The United States announced an upcoming new package of military aid that is expected to include nearly 100 Stryker combat vehicles and at least 50 Bradley armored vehicles — but not the Abrams, which U.S. officials say has complex maintenance needs and may not be the best fit.

Allies and military analysts say the Leopard 2 is diesel-powered — not driven by jet fuel that powers the M1 Abrams — and is easier to operate than the big U.S. tanks, and thus has shorter training times.

Britain this month announced it will send Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine, and the Czech Republic and Poland have provided Soviet-era T-72 tanks to Ukrainian forces. French President Emmanuel Macron said Sunday that he had asked his defense minister to “work on” the idea of sending some of France’s Leclerc battle tanks to Ukraine.

Even if modern western MBTs are superior to their Russian counterparts, donor countries supplying them need to prepare for losses, Raths said.

The Leopard 2 “is an offensive weapon that will be thrown into high-intensity battles," he said. "Vehicles will be destroyed, and people will die in these tanks.”

___

Jordans reported from Berlin.

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