New findings suggest increased monitoring needed to prevent lung disease in underground coal miners

Peer-Reviewed Publication

NATIONAL JEWISH HEALTH

DENVER — (MAY 5, 2023) For the past two decades, there has been a major resurgence in progressive massive fibrosis (PMF), (also known as black lung) among coal miners, leading researchers from National Jewish Health and across the country to examine what job duties might be putting them at risk. Current federal regulations require routine monitoring of dust levels in specific “high risk” jobs in underground coal mines, mainly jobs near the coal seam where coal is mined from surrounding rock. During the study, crystalline silica, a component of coal mine dust, was found in the lungs of coal miners whose jobs had not been targeted for exposure monitoring based on current regulations during their working lives. Silica is a particular concern since it causes severe and irreversible lung scarring. These findings were published in the Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine.    

Researchers examined lung tissue from deceased coal miners and compared findings across specific mining job duties to see which miners were at risk for severe black lung disease. They found that more recent coal miners with PMF (born after 1930 and working primarily with modern mining technologies) had worked significantly fewer years than historic miners (born before 1930) with PMF. They also found that scarring from silica dust exposure was more common in contemporary miners, even those whose job duties were not prioritized for dust sampling in current federal regulations such as electricians and foremen.   

“Our findings show the importance of monitoring silica exposure in coal miners whose job duties weren’t previously considered high risk,” said National Jewish Health researcher Lauren Zell-Baran, MPH, who was the lead author on the study. 

“Severe black lung disease is incurable, disabling and entirely preventable,” said Cecile Rose, MD, MPH, occupational pulmonologist at National Jewish Health and co-senior author of the study. “This study underscores the need to control silica dust exposure for all coal miners.”

National Jewish Health is the leading respiratory hospital in the nation. Founded 124 years ago as a nonprofit hospital, National Jewish Health today is the only facility in the world dedicated exclusively to groundbreaking medical research and treatment of patients with respiratory, cardiac, immune and related disorders. Patients and families come to National Jewish Health from around the world to receive cutting-edge, comprehensive, coordinated care. To learn more, visit njhealth.org or the media resources page.

JOURNAL

Journal of Occupational and Environmental Medicine

DOI

10.1097/JOM.0000000000002746 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Mining Tenure and Job Duties Differ Among Contemporary and Historic Underground Coal Miners With Progressive Massive Fibrosis

U$A

Book examines the effects of volatility in state funding for higher education

Book Announcement

UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS AT URBANA-CHAMPAIGN, NEWS BUREAU

 

IMAGE: JENNIFER DELANEY, A PROFESSOR OF EDUCATION POLICY, ORGANIZATION AND LEADERSHIP AT THE UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS URBANA-CHAMPAIGN, AND OTHER EXPERTS EXAMINE THE WIDE-RANGING IMPLICATIONS OF UNPREDICTABLE STATE APPROPRIATIONS IN THE NEW BOOK, “VOLATILITY IN STATE SPENDING FOR HIGHER EDUCATION.” view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO BY FRED ZWICKY

CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — With rampant inflation and some financial gurus forecasting an economic recession in the U.S. this year, officials at postsecondary institutions – and college-going families – have reasons to be concerned, as a shaky economy often portends cuts in higher education funding, researchers say in a new book.

Experts in higher education, public policy and other disciplines examine the implications of precarity in state appropriations for higher education and explore possible solutions in the new book “Volatility in State Spending for Higher Education,” published by the American Educational Research Association and released at its recent conference in Chicago.

During recessions and other economic downturns, states’ funding for higher education is particularly vulnerable because it is the largest or second-largest discretionary spending category, averaging about 9.6% of states’ budgets, said book editor Jennifer Delaney, a professor of education policy, organization and leadership at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.

“With the exception of Vermont, every state also has a balanced-budget mandate, so when we hit downturns, higher education spending is almost always cut,” Delaney said. “Currently, higher education is still benefitting from COVID-19 relief funding, and when that dries up, many states will face a financial cliff for higher education.”

Studies by various experts in the book examine how volatility in state funding affects college affordability through increased tuition and fees, graduation rates and institutional decisions such as hiring contingent instructors rather than tenure-line professors.

With colleges and universities under increased pressure to find predictable revenue streams to shore up their budgets, there are potential adverse effects on the public good, Delaney said.

“Institutions are more likely to start a revenue-generating MBA program than to develop  one in a humanities field that supports an important social good, like teacher training,” Delaney said. “Uncertainty in state budgeting shifts the nature of what public institutions do and shifts it in a way that tends to lessen the contributions that education makes to society and democratization – and that is typically not the direction that states are hoping to go in. We should worry about that.”

A study in the book by Delaney and co-author William R. Doyle, a professor of higher education and public policy at Vanderbilt University, looks at the length of time it takes for higher education funding to be restored to previous levels when state appropriations are cut.

In the past, institutional leaders might expect their state revenue to rebound quickly, and they could implement stopgap measures such as curtailing travel and salary increases and deferring maintenance on campus buildings for a short time. However, “it has become clear in many states that this approach will no longer suffice,” Delaney and Doyle wrote. “It is taking longer and longer to recover from cuts, if a recovery comes at all.”

They looked at funding cuts of 1%, 3%, 5% and 10% in state appropriations for higher education during the period 1984-2015. They selected that period because it included the Great Recession but excluded the economic downturn precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the 1980s, cuts of 5% or more were rare, and “most states – about 75% – restored higher education funding to its prior levels within four years,” Delaney said. “But in the 1990s, of the 41 states that cut higher education appropriations, only 45% restored that funding within six years. And more recently – from 2000-2015 – recovery became increasingly unlikely. Only 5% of the states in the risk set had their state revenue restored to the previous level within five years.”

States with higher levels of financial aid restored postsecondary funding more quickly, the researchers found, while restoration took the longest in Southern and Western states and in those with higher tuition at their public colleges and universities.

Dramatic fluctuations in state revenue and increased costs of attendance not only affect access, they could shift students’ choice of majors, prompting students to opt for those with higher earning potential to repay their loan debt rather than fields such as education or social work that pay less but benefit the public good, Delaney said.

When weighing the consequences of reducing funding for higher education and the politically unfavorable prospect of raising taxes, state leaders are left seeking alternative revenue sources, the authors said. With these sources limited, some scholars have suggested earmarking states’ lottery revenue for higher education.

A study in the book by researchers Christopher R. Marsicano of Davidson College, Jenna W. Kramer of RAND Corporation and Steven Pittenger Gentile of the Tennessee Higher Education Commission examines 25 years of data on lottery earmarks for higher education and the effects on state appropriations. Concluding that the effects on volatility were “mostly null,” the group cautioned, however, that earmarks and lottery revenues are limited resources that “are not silver bullets for shoring up funding uncertainty.”

Also among the alternative funding mechanisms examined by scholars in the book are counter-cyclical sources such as the creation of federal-state partnerships. Other researchers examine whether state finance policies protect against unpredictability in higher education funding, investigate whether the gender composition and political affiliations of governors and lawmakers affect appropriations and explore potential links between states’ economic performances and their higher education subsidies.

Although the COVID-19 pandemic is waning, the economic chaos it wrought has exacerbated volatility and stretched the resources needed to serve vulnerable student populations, increasing their risks of not completing their degrees, Delaney wrote.

“Volatility is likely to remain a perennial issue or ‘wicked problem’ that will require creative and dedicated minds to manage and research,” she said. “But it has the potential to be improved through carefully crafted public policy. Emphasizing funding stability is important, especially given the public good produced by higher education.”

Published by the American Educational Research Association, the book was released at the group’s 2023 conference in Chicago.

CREDIT

Photo courtesy of American Educational Research Association

Providing legal counsel at initial bail hearings lowers incarceration rates

Demonstration shows no change in likelihood that defendants appear at subsequent hearings

Peer-Reviewed Publication

RAND CORPORATION

Providing defendants with legal counsel during their initial bail hearing decreases use of monetary bail and pretrial detention, without increasing the likelihood that defendants fail to appear at the subsequent preliminary hearing, according to a new RAND Corporation study.

 

Researchers found that having legal counsel at bail hearings increased the probability of being released without monetary bail by 21% and reduced the probability that an individual was in jail three days after their bail hearing by 10%.

 

The analysis, based on a field experiment in Pittsburgh where public defenders were assigned to a limited number of initial bail hearings, is one of the few high-quality studies of what happens when legal services are provided to defendants at an initial bail hearing. The findings are published in the journal Science Advances.

 

“These results clearly show that public defenders have a substantial impact on defendants receiving a favorable outcome at the initial bail hearing,” said Shamena Anwar, one of the study’s authors and a senior economist at RAND, a nonprofit research organization.

 

In the U.S., during the first court appearance after an arrest, a judge makes a decision about the conditions necessary for a defendant to be released from jail until the case is resolved. Most jurisdictions operate a cash bail system in which a judge determines an amount a person must pay to be released from detention.

 

Recent studies have provided substantial evidence that pretrial detention leads to worse outcomes for both the defendant and society at large, with longer jail stays and higher chances of conviction in the short term, and worse recidivism and employment outcomes over the long term.

 

Prior to this study, an open question was whether providing a lawyer at the bail hearing will have an impact on defendant outcomes. While defendants have a right to an attorney at all critical stages of a criminal prosecution, bail hearings are not considered a critical stage in many jurisdictions, in part because they are short, non-evidentiary hearings (often lasting less than five minutes) that are often conducted in an assembly line fashion without much input from the defendant or prosecution.  

 

The RAND study analyzes the results from a unique year-long initiative in the Pittsburgh Municipal Court where public defenders were available to represent newly arrested people at some initial bail hearings. The jurisdiction only had sufficient resources to provide public defenders for half of the shifts that did not already have public defenders.

 

The RAND team created a public defender work schedule such that the shifts in which a public defender was working had defendants and judges who were on average nearly identical to those in which a public defender was not working. This meant the study was akin to a randomized control trial, allowing researchers to rigorously measure the impact of providing a public defender at a defendant’s initial bail hearing.

 

The study was in the field from April 2019 to March 2020.

 

Researchers found that while those who did not have legal representation received some type of non-monetary release 49% of the time, those with public defenders received a non-monetary release 59% of the time -- a large increase.

 

This reduction in the use of monetary bail in turn led to a decline in the percentage of individuals who were in jail immediately after their bail hearing. In particular, while 45.4% of those without a public defender were in jail following their bail hearing, this percentage was 40.8% among those with a public defender.

 

However, the intervention did result in a short-term increase in rearrests on theft charges among those who had public defenders. Based upon prior survey work that asked people how they perceive the costs of incarceration and theft, RAND researchers suggest that a theft incident would have to be at least 8.5 times as costly as a day in detention for most jurisdictions to find this tradeoff undesirable.

 

“This study is particularly relevant given that roughly half of the counties in the U.S. do not currently provide defense representation at the bail hearing,” Anwar said. “These results should be helpful for jurisdictions that are considering providing defense representation at bail hearings, although more research in this area is needed to understand the extent to which the results we find here are generalizable to other jurisdictions with different bail hearing procedures.”

 

Support for the study was provided by Arnold Ventures. Other authors of the study are Shawn Bushway and John Engberg.

 

The RAND Social and Economic Well-Being division seeks to actively improve the health, social, and economic well-being of populations and communities throughout the world.

 

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JOURNAL

Science Advances

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.ade3909 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

The Impact of Defense Counsel at Bail Hearings

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

5-May-2023

Best path to fair living wage for global supply chain workers may take an indirect route new research suggests

Initiative by retailer H&M program achieves significant wage increase for factory workers

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO, ROTMAN SCHOOL OF MANAGEMENT

Toronto - Want to make a positive difference in the wage conditions of developing country factory workers churning out products for multinational firms?

Paying them more seems an obvious first step. But research looking at the experience of clothing retailer H&M Group suggests a less direct approach — by intervening at the management practice level — can empower workers and significantly raise wages in sustainable ways, multiplying the impact of the company’s investment many times over.

In 2013, following activist pressure for reform, H&M went to its suppliers and asked them to voluntarily implement two programs designed to raise workers’ pay. A workplace dialogue program promoted workers’ awareness of their rights and formal opportunities for communication between management and workers or their labour representatives.

A separate wage management system included the creation of clear and transparent pay grids aimed at fairly compensating workers based on their education, experience, skills and performance. H&M also implemented standardized systems to measure and track workers’ wages.

Across some 1800 factories in nine countries, almost all in Asia, wages went up an average of five percent by the third year of implementation. This represented about $44 U.S. per worker annually, compared to H&M’s investment in the initiative of $4.57 million – or $1.62 per worker.

“The easiest way to raise wages would have been to just give the money directly to be paid to the workers. But H&M took a long-term approach, where they’re implementing systems,” said Jee-Eun Shin, an assistant professor of accounting at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management. She co-authored the research with Gregory Distelhorst, an associate professor at U of T’s Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources, who is also cross appointed to the Rotman School’s strategic management area. 

While the wage increase was modest, “seeing a positive effect is already a huge step forward,” said Prof. Shin. “Given the risk, there’s a lot of incentive for suppliers not to be part of this.”

Suppliers who adopted the programs remained competitive on prices, yet also saw significant increases in their orders. While the researchers were unable to empirically verify how the suppliers were able to cover the increased wages – there was no significant change in overtime pay or cuts to a supplier’s workforce, for example -- their anecdotal evidence suggested that increased productivity was a major contributor.

Labour union presence in the adopting factories did not appear to significantly amplify the wage effects, the study found. Prof. Shin said this was not especially surprising given the limited power trade unions have in the regions studied.

The study also highlights how corporations’ social practices can be assessed, using standardized metrics, given that such sustainability measures have been harder to establish, compared to those for things like environmental or governance practices.

Prof. Shin credited H&M for being so entrepreneurial with its program, for working to establish appropriate metrics to measure the impact of its wage-related initiatives and for being open with its data.

“A collective approach is needed,” to improve conditions for workers, she said, “and corporations like big multi-nationals, if they really want to make a change, they have huge powers to do that.”

The study was published in the Journal of Accounting Research. 

Bringing together high-impact faculty research and thought leadership on one searchable platform, the new Rotman Insights Hub offers articles, podcasts, opinions, books and videos representing the latest in management thinking and providing insights into the key issues facing business and society. Visit www.rotman.utoronto.ca/insightshub.

The Rotman School of Management is part of the University of Toronto, a global centre of research and teaching excellence at the heart of Canada’s commercial capital. Rotman is a catalyst for transformative learning, insights and public engagement, bringing together diverse views and initiatives around a defining purpose: to create value for business and society. For more information, visit www.rotman.utoronto.ca

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JOURNAL

Journal of Accounting Research

DOI

10.1111/1475-679X.12472 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Experimental study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Assessing the Social Impact of Corporations: Evidence from Management Control Interventions in the Supply Chain to Increase Worker Wages

COI STATEMENT

This research was conducted under a research agreement between H&M Group andthe University of Toronto. Neither the university nor the authors received any funding from H&M Group connected to this research.

ICTA-UAB demands the European Parliament to take action to fight pollution in the Mediterranean Sea

Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITAT AUTONOMA DE BARCELONA

The implementation of effective policies at local and regional level, and the cooperation of all countries in the Mediterranean Sea basin is urgently needed to successfully reverse the environmental problems in this marine area. This is evidenced by a report carried out by the Institute of Environmental Science and Technology of the Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (ICTA-UAB) presented in the European Parliament by oceanographer Patrizia Ziveri, who stresses the need to urgently fight against the growing pollution caused by marine litter and plastics in the Mediterranean, to improve current legislation and to monitor new pollutants that require immediate regulation.

The study, requested by the Committee on Regional Development (REGI) Policy Department for Structural and Cohesion Policies of the European Parliament, provides an exhaustive analysis of the current situation of the Mediterranean Sea, a global pollution hotspot, as well as the actions taken by the cities and regions of the Mediterranean countries of the European Union to reduce the generation and dispersion of marine pollutants. The study makes policy recommendations and points out that pollution affects both marine environment and fauna, as well as human health.

The Mediterranean is one of the world's marine areas under human pressure. Its high rates of population and urbanization (150 million inhabitants on its coasts), industrial activity, tourism (one third of the world's volume) and fishing have led to a rapid increase in pollution. It accounts for up to 30% of global shipping activity. This, combined with a geomorphological configuration in the form of a semi-enclosed basin and its specific oceanic circulation, has made the Mediterranean Sea one of the most polluted spots on the planet and a natural trap for marine litter, mainly plastics.

Between 80 and 90 per cent of marine litter in the basin is plastic, and an estimated 230,000 tonnes of land-sourced plastic leak into the sea each year. Tourism is the main sector contributing to beach litter (up to 60%) followed by fishing and aquaculture (5-10%). Only 10 types of items account for 66.4% of the beach litter in the Mediterranean Sea, 9 of them are made partly or entirely of plastic, and 7 of them of single-use plastic. Cigarette butts and cigarette filters are the most common (27.3%). Shipping activities are estimated to contribute up to 20,000 tonnes of plastic per year.

The ICTA-UAB report Actions of cities and regions in the Mediterranean Sea area to fight sea pollution indicates that the main cause of this situation is the massive waste generation and its mismanagement. Other causes include industrial and urban waste discharge, sewage, agricultural run-off, shipping, fishing, and maritime traffic, as well as tourism.

 "To tackle pollution, management policies must be applied to waste reduction and treatment, tourism, pollution from plastics and other pollutants, sewage and other waste from rivers," explains Patrizia Ziveri, oceanographer at ICTA-UAB. It is necessary to target the production model, consumption patterns and waste disposal practices.

In this context, "it is essential that the fight against pollution in the Mediterranean Sea is endorsed not only by EU countries, but that regulations are implemented by all Mediterranean countries through effective cooperation", she says. The implementation and success of the actions to fight marine pollution should be monitored at different stages. Best practices should be highlighted, shared, and implemented in different suitable Mediterranean regions.

The scientists stress that significant progress has been made in terms of treatment and prevention, including the implementation of the single-use plastic directive and the promotion of recycling. However, more and continued efforts are needed. The study examines the implementation of the EU's single-use plastics directive in France, Spain, Italy, and Greece, and calls for a strategy to reduce plastics which includes market restrictions, improved waste management and agreements between consumers and producers.

"Efforts to reduce the use of plastics must continue in order to meet environmental targets. There is an urgent need to focus on the EU's strategy targets for key sectors, such as consumption patterns, production, and waste management," says Michael Grelaud, ICTA-UAB oceanographer and co-author of the report.

"Some actions to limit marine-based pollution (fisheries, aquaculture, shipping, mining) already exist, but they often face challenges in terms of effective implementation because this is often reduced to voluntary collaborations by states," says Jorge Pato, also co-author of the report.

Some of the other measures they propose in different areas are:

 

1. Emerging pollutants. This refers to new pollutants such as pharmaceuticals, UV filters, flame retardants or pesticides that reach the sea through agricultural, urban and industrial runoff or coastal wastewater treatment plants.

 

1. Microplastics. They point out that there are no regulations for the growing problem of microplastics. "Microplastic pollution should be established as a priority issue in the Mediterranean agenda, capable of leading to binding agreements”. They point to the establishment of bans and reduction targets in the manufacture of fabrics and cosmetics, monitoring the entry of microplastics into the sea in all water-channels, including rivers and sewage outflows. Strict regulation of ship paint and antifouling coatings is needed.

 

1. Marine noise pollution. Shipping, oil and gas exploration, construction and maintenance of offshore structures, and military activities are a dangerous source of noise pollution affecting marine fauna, causing behavioural disturbances, communication disruption, hearing damage, stress and even death. They propose the creation of particularly sensitive sea areas where noise levels are restricted (with special attention to migratory routes, breeding grounds and biodiversity hotspots), the use of quieter ship models and the reduction of ship speeds.

 

1. Rivers, wastewater treatment and harbours. The challenge in managing water pollution lies in the implementation of policies by the signatory countries. This is particularly evident given the varying levels of economic development among the Mediterranean nations. They are committed to the cyclical reuse of treated effluent for agriculture to reduce spending on fertilisers and the recovery of organic wastewater from urban areas as a valuable agricultural resource.

 

1. Aquaculture. Pollutes by discharging untreated waste, using chemicals, and releasing excess nutrients. This harms aquatic life, promotes harmful algal blooms, and poisons fish and other marine species with antibiotics and heavy metals, so regulation of these excess nutrients in aquaculture is needed. EU policies for Mediterranean countries should implement the Voluntary Guidelines on the Marking of Fishing Gear to eliminate abandoned, lost or otherwise discarded fishing gear and encourage the recovery of marine litter through compensation.

 

1. Implementation of initiatives in coastal cities on waste characterization and monitoring. Examples include the use of smart waste bins that alert waste management teams when they are full; awareness-raising campaigns oriented to beach users; monitoring of debris and litter on the main commercial routes in the Mediterranean or the adaptation of packaging that is not possible to ban with alternative sustainable solutions.

 

1. Mediterranean islands. Promote sustainable tourism; limit the generation of coastal litter by improving general awareness of the problem; limit the impact of tourism by introducing a visiting fee for litter-free coastal attractions; develop comprehensive waste management plans with the involvement of local communities; and introduce regulations to create smoke-free beaches.

 

Full report (English) https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2023/733123/IPOL_STU(2023)733123_EN.pdf

 

Why good weather isn’t a good thing for stock markets

A study suggests sunny weather can influence how investors perform and affect stock market prices

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF PORTSMOUTH

Sunshine levels have a significant impact on the bidding behaviour of stock market investors, according to new research. 

The study examined the relationship between sunny weather and how market participants perform, as well as the subsequent seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). These discounts for shares act as an effective tool for companies to raise finance and are essential for a functioning modern economy.

To see if decisions were influenced by sunshine intensity and duration, an international team including researchers from the University of Portsmouth’s Centre for Innovative and Sustainable Finance, examined weather station data to determine the periods when the climate exerts the greatest influence on investors.

The data revealed investors made higher bids in sunny periods, which led to lower discounts for shares in the primary market. In fact, just a one standard deviation increase in sunshine intensity caused bid discounts to decline by 2.4 percent, while a one standard deviation increase in sunshine duration caused bid discounts to drop by 3.33 percent.

Professor Jia Liu, CISF Centre Director and Professor of Accounting and Finance at the University of Portsmouth, said: “With sunny weather, often come good spirits – which in many circumstances is a positive, but that’s not the case with financial decision-making. When the sunshine intensifies, bidders become overly optimistic and less risk-averse, which can lead to higher bid prices for seasoned equities.”

Existing research has shown meteorological conditions, especially exposure to sunshine, affects a person’s emotional state and sentiment. These weather-driven moods have been proved to influence a buyer’s car choice, art prices at auction, and the tendency to take risks in a lottery.

It was Edward Saunders who first established a link between investment behaviour in Wall Street and the weather 20 years ago.

“Saunders inspired our study”, explained Professor Liu.

“His results strongly supported the hypothesis that investor psychology influences asset prices. And despite strong evidence that this has a large economic impact, there has since been little research into the relationship between the weather and stock market performance in the primary stock market. Saunders’ study only examined stock prices in the secondary market though, so we decided to go a step further and looked at the investor’s individual behavior in the primary market.

Professor Shenghao Gao, at the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, China, said: “The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) requires that SEO issuers disclose detailed investor bidding information during the SEO auction process, providing us with a unique opportunity to examine the effect of sunshine-induced mood on investors’ decisions in the primary market.”

The team sampled 1,625 auction-style SEOs representing 28,321 bids from 2,978 investors between 2006 and 2019. -In addition to a connection between sunshine and a bidder’s decision-making, they also discovered that this effect increases when a company's SEO offering is more complex, or its corporate background is less familiar to them. 

The paper, published in the Journal of Corporate Finance, says the findings have important implications for investors in the primary market, who need to be aware of the impact that weather conditions can have on their investment decisions.

Professor Liu added: “We want to make investors aware that during periods of sunny weather, they become more optimistic about their investments. This will make them more inclined to take risks that aren’t justified by asset values. Therefore, they should factor this consideration in when bidding for shares or they might suffer losses.

“The study has profound implications for policy and practice. The growing instability of weather systems throughout the world, and the established connections between climatic conditions and investors’ behaviors, makes this an issue of increasing relevance in a financially interdependent world. 

“Maintaining the stability of markets could depend upon our understanding of this phenomenon, since the onset of climate change might have an increasingly destabilizing impact on the judgment of investors and market-makers, with unpredictable consequences for global trading.”

Sunshine levels have a significant impact on the bidding behaviour of stock market investors, according to new research. 

The study examined the relationship between sunny weather and how market participants perform, as well as the subsequent seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). These discounts for shares act as an effective tool for companies to raise finance and are essential for a functioning modern economy.

To see if decisions were influenced by sunshine intensity and duration, an international team including researchers from the University of Portsmouth’s Centre for Innovative and Sustainable Finance, examined weather station data to determine the periods when the climate exerts the greatest influence on investors.

The data revealed investors made higher bids in sunny periods, which led to lower discounts for shares in the primary market. In fact, just a one standard deviation increase in sunshine intensity caused bid discounts to decline by 2.4 percent, while a one standard deviation increase in sunshine duration caused bid discounts to drop by 3.33 percent.

Professor Jia Liu, CISF Centre Director and Professor of Accounting and Finance at the University of Portsmouth, said: “With sunny weather, often come good spirits – which in many circumstances is a positive, but that’s not the case with financial decision-making. When the sunshine intensifies, bidders become overly optimistic and less risk-averse, which can lead to higher bid prices for seasoned equities.”

Existing research has shown meteorological conditions, especially exposure to sunshine, affects a person’s emotional state and sentiment. These weather-driven moods have been proved to influence a buyer’s car choice, art prices at auction, and the tendency to take risks in a lottery.

It was Edward Saunders who first established a link between investment behaviour in Wall Street and the weather 20 years ago.

“Saunders inspired our study”, explained Professor Liu.

“His results strongly supported the hypothesis that investor psychology influences asset prices. And despite strong evidence that this has a large economic impact, there has since been little research into the relationship between the weather and stock market performance in the primary stock market. Saunders’ study only examined stock prices in the secondary market though, so we decided to go a step further and looked at the investor’s individual behavior in the primary market.

Professor Shenghao Gao, at the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, China, said: “The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) requires that SEO issuers disclose detailed investor bidding information during the SEO auction process, providing us with a unique opportunity to examine the effect of sunshine-induced mood on investors’ decisions in the primary market.”

The team sampled 1,625 auction-style SEOs representing 28,321 bids from 2,978 investors between 2006 and 2019. -In addition to a connection between sunshine and a bidder’s decision-making, they also discovered that this effect increases when a company's SEO offering is more complex, or its corporate background is less familiar to them. 

The paper, published in the Journal of Corporate Finance, says the findings have important implications for investors in the primary market, who need to be aware of the impact that weather conditions can have on their investment decisions.

Professor Liu added: “We want to make investors aware that during periods of sunny weather, they become more optimistic about their investments. This will make them more inclined to take risks that aren’t justified by asset values. Therefore, they should factor this consideration in when bidding for shares or they might suffer losses.

“The study has profound implications for policy and practice. The growing instability of weather systems throughout the world, and the established connections between climatic conditions and investors’ behaviors, makes this an issue of increasing relevance in a financially interdependent world. 

“Maintaining the stability of markets could depend upon our understanding of this phenomenon, since the onset of climate change might have an increasingly destabilizing impact on the judgment of investors and market-makers, with unpredictable consequences for global trading.”

---

JOURNAL

Journal of Corporate Finance

DOI

10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2023.102411 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Sunshine-induced mood and SEO pricing: Evidence from detailed investor bids in SEO auctions

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

3-Apr-2023

Domestic abuse exposure linked to increased levels of asthma and other atopic diseases

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM

Women who have suffered domestic abuse may have a higher risk of developing atopic diseases including asthma, new research has found.

Published today in the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology: In Practice, the research led by the University of Birmingham found that in analysis of patient records, there were a significantly larger percentage of women who had atopic diseases and had a history of being exposed to domestic abuse and violence compared to those who hadn’t.

Dr Joht Singh Chandan from the University of Birmingham and corresponding author of the study said:

“After adjusting for possible cofounders, our results show women with a recorded exposure to domestic violence and abuse had a 52% increased risk of developing atopic diseases,”

“Domestic violence and abuse is a global issue that disproportionately affects women. We set out to deepen our understanding of the health impacts of domestic violence so evidence-based public health policies can be further developed to address not only domestic violence, but secondary effects like the development of atopic diseases.”

The team of researchers performed a retrospective open cohort study in the United Kingdom, looking at adult women (those aged 18 and older) with a physician recorded exposure to domestic violence and comparing them to women over 18 without a recorded exposure. Patients with pre-existing reports of atopic disease were excluded from the study.

A total of 13,852 women were identified as being exposed to domestic violence and were matched to 49,036 similar women without a reported exposure. In total, 967/13,852 women in the exposed group (incidence rate (IR) 20.10 per 1,000 py) were diagnosed with atopic disease compared to 2,607/49,036 in the unexposed group (IR 13.24 per 1,000 py).

There were limitations to the study. Women in the exposed group were more likely to be a current smoker than women in the unexposed group. Ethnicity data was often lacking in the database and median follow-up for both groups of women was relatively short given the relapsing nature of atopic disease. Researchers hope to address these limitations in future studies. 

ENDS

Notes to editor:

 

• The University of Birmingham is ranked amongst the world’s top 100 institutions. Its work brings people from across the world to Birmingham, including researchers, teachers and more than 6,500 international students from over 150 countries.
• The University of Birmingham is a founding member of Birmingham Health Partners (BHP), a strategic alliance which transcends organisational boundaries to rapidly translate healthcare research findings into new diagnostics, drugs and devices for patients. Birmingham Health Partners is a strategic alliance between seven organisations who collaborate to bring healthcare innovations through to clinical application:
  • University of Birmingham
  • University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust
  • Birmingham Women's and Children's Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust
  • Aston University
  • The Royal Orthopaedic Hospital NHS Foundation Trust
  • Sandwell and West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust
  • West Midlands Academic Health Science Network
  • Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust

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JOURNAL

Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology: In Practice

DOI

10.1016/j.jaip.2023.03.016 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Exposure to Domestic Abuse and the Subsequent Development of Atopic Disease in Women

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

5-May-2023 

LETTER FROM HUNGARY

I Was Banned From Entering CPAC Hungary’s ‘Woke Free Zone’

A dispatch from the Trumpian right’s pilgrimage to Budapest.


Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán delivers the keynote speech at the opening session of the Conservative Political Action Conference in Budapest, Hungary. | Szilard Koszticsak/MTI via AP

By JACOB HEILBRUNN
05/06/2023 
Jacob Heilbrunn is editor of the National Interest and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.


BUDAPEST — It’s springtime here for illiberal democracy. Once the country that opened its border with Austria in August 1989, a move that led directly to the collapse of the Berlin Wall, Hungary has since made something of a U-turn.

“Come back, Mr. President,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán declared on Thursday. “Make America Great Again and bring us peace.”

I came to Hungary to witness the not new, yet still astonishing enmeshing of the populist-nationalist American right and its European counterpart, and I didn’t have to wait long. There was Orbán endorsing Donald Trump’s 2024 bid on the first day of the Conservative Political Action Conference taking place here. Some in the audience wore T-shirts depicting Orbán and Trump as “saviors of the world.”

I was supposed to be watching all this from inside the conference, within the gleaming Bálna, or whale center, along the Danube. Instead, I was livestreaming it from my hotel room — barred from entry as a member of the media.

When I tried to attend the event earlier that day, I ran into a barrier that seemed almost as formidable as the old Berlin Wall. Two security guards loomed large before a gateway arch in front of the center entrance, which was festooned with the slogan “Woke Free Zone.” More guards and metal detectors were downstairs in the registration area.

I was surprised but not shocked by my travails. I knew that CPAC had banned many journalists, including the New Yorker’s Andrew Marantz the previous year, so last month I made sure to reach out to the Hungarian Center for Fundamental Rights, which was co-hosting the conference, to avoid precisely this scenario. I received a friendly email from Dora Gulyas, the center’s director for communication and public relations. She declared, “We are happy to provide you with a press pass consider it done.” A few days before the event, however, I received an email from the center indicating that I should watch it on the web, complete with the Kafkaesque instruction, “There is nothing further to do.” When I went to the Bálna center in a last-ditch attempt to cross the border, I was treated like an invader: “We are full.”

The gateway arch in front of the entrance of CPAC Hungary features the slogan “No Woke Zone.” | Jacob Heilbrunn for POLITICO

Once upon a time CPAC, which hosted its annual flagship event just outside Washington two months ago, was eager for media attention. But lately, CPAC officials have developed an aversion to the press, restricting many reporters and denouncing its critics as “fake journalists.” That seems particularly true as the MAGA movement has embraced Orbán and his agenda.

Hungary is now the global epicenter of the new right’s crusade against liberal democracy. It serves as an alluring model for many conservatives — a country that’s successfully neutered the media and the judiciary as well as passed an anti-LGBTQ law that’s supposed to protect the traditional family. And don’t forget Orbán’s reluctance to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s brutal invasion.

This is the second year in a row that CPAC came to Budapest, and Trump and his allies rejoiced in the blossoming relationship. In a Friday video address to the conference, Trump hailed the “freedom-loving patriots” at the conference and declared that it was imperative to “stand together to defend our borders, our Judeo-Christian values, our identity and our way of life.”



MAGA Republicans flocked to the event to profess their admiration for Hungary, like former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (top). Media personality Tucker Carlson (bottom) also made a virtual appearance. | Tibor Illyes/MTI via AP (top); Szilard Koszticsak/MTI via AP

“Our ties have never been closer,” Balázs Orbán, the affable political director for Viktor Orbán (no relation), told me about Hungary’s relations with the Republican Party. It was Thursday afternoon, and we were meeting at an outdoor bistro next to the conference center. No sooner did Balázs Orbán finish that thought than an elegantly attired Michael Anton — the former Trump administration national security council official and author of the “Flight 93 Election” essay that famously made the apocalyptic case for Trump in 2016 — stopped by to introduce himself.

With his references to Renaissance paintings and classical architecture, the bespectacled Balázs Orbán can give off an academic air, but if anyone has been working to bolster the practical political links between American and Hungarian conservatives, it’s him. He had recently returned from a trip to America, where he spoke at the Heritage Foundation’s 50th anniversary celebration, appeared on Fox News and addressed the hard-line New York Young Republican Club. As Balázs Orbán turned me into his own disciple by demonstrating how to make a Fröccs, the popular wine and soda-water drink, he explained, “It’s in Hungary’s interest to have a Republican president.”

The drink was nifty enough, but it didn’t mix entirely well with the conference itself.

As I livestreamed the event, it quickly became clear that the Bálna center was functioning as a kind of mega-church for the Trumpian right. There were sermons and homilies and exhortations. There were warnings about satanic forces. And there were promises of redemption and salvation. One speaker talked about being crucified for politically incorrect views; others worshipped at the altar of Orbánism, praising Hungary as an outpost of Christianity that was beating back the infidels and heretics.

“I stand in awe,” declared Heritage Foundation president Kevin Roberts. GOP Rep. Paul Gosar, who has appeared at white nationalist events in the past, agreed. “Hungary,” he said, “is a beacon.”


Former President Donald Trump delivers his video message at CPAC Hungary. | Tibor Illyes/MTI via AP

In fact, the MAGA faithful flocked to the event to profess their admiration for the Hungarian miracle. Former Arizona candidate for governor Kari Lake recently declared on Steve Bannon’s show that “Hungary is doing things right.” One thing Orbán is apparently doing right is cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin. On Friday morning, Lake announced at the conference that there was a simple solution to ending the Ukraine conflict — sellout Kyiv to the Russians. “The only way to stop this war,” she said, “is to turn off the money spigot. I say we should invest in protecting our borders, not Ukraine’s.”

In a video message presumably taped before his abrupt ouster, former Fox News host Tucker Carlson told the Americans who were in Budapest that they were “very brave” as the State Department was “keeping track, you went to a forbidden country.” Later that day Orbán hosted Lake, Gosar and more than a dozen other American conservative activists and politicians for a photo-op at his office, including the Pizzagate conspiracy theorist Jack Posobiec and former Sen. Rick Santorum. Hungary, Orbán said, has become an “incubator where the conservative policies of the future are being tested.”

Despite the democratic erosion in Hungary and on the American right, the theme of freedom was omnipresent as various speakers denounced the European Union, among other things, as a totalitarian organization intent on inflicting gender policies on Hungary that would endanger the traditional family. Croatian parliamentarian Stephen Bartulica decried the “anti-Christian” elites in Brussels, while Roger Köppel of the far-right Swiss People’s Party likened the ideology of “woke culture” to National Socialism. The Hungarian historian Maria Schmidt stated, “We want to preserve our own culture, we want to hold on to our language, our roots, our traditions, our identity. We don’t tolerate people crawling under our duvets and interfering in our private lives.”

Throughout, the idea was clear: Liberalism is synonymous with tyranny. Hungarian Justice Minister Judit Varga, who spoke on Thursday, congratulated the delegates for successfully completing a dangerous journey — flying over authoritarian countries to reach Hungary, the only truly free country in Europe.

The fealty that leading American politicians are paying to Orbán as they troop to Budapest allows him to fortify his image in Hungary as an international statesman. Fully embracing the Republican Party is a gamble that will likely antagonize President Joe Biden, but it’s also one that could elevate Orbán should Trump return to the White House — allowing him to bypass his European detractors and exercise outsized influence.

The Biden administration, by contrast, has taken a fairly hostile approach to Orban’s Hungary, including terminating a Hungarian-American tax agreement in retaliation for Budapest preventing the EU from adopting a global minimum tax. It’s also gone to war with Biden’s ambassador, David Pressman, who regularly trolls the regime.

CPAC has been good for Orbán. A return by Trump would be even better. “A Republican president,” Balázs Orbán said, “is in Hungary’s interest.”