The Atomic Blueprint: Algorithmic Breakthrough Unlocks Materials Path to Sustainable Technologies

By UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL JULY 9, 2023

The atomistic structure of the crystalline material garnet corresponds to the crater on the potential energy surface full of rough mountains, hills, and valleys. Finding it computationally is very hard, but by fixing a mesh on this surface, advanced algorithms and quantum computers can be used to find the lowest lying vertex. A subsequent tweak reveals the garnet structure, which comes with the optimality guarantee. Credit: University of Liverpool

A mathematical algorithm developed by University of Liverpool researchers could signal a step change in the quest to design the new materials that are needed to meet the challenge of net zero and a sustainable future.

New research by the University of Liverpool could signal a step change in the quest to design the new materials that are needed to meet the challenge of net zero and a sustainable future.

Publishing in the journal Nature, the Liverpool researchers have shown that a mathematical algorithm can guarantee to predict the structure of any material just based on knowledge of the atoms that make it up.

Developed by an interdisciplinary team of researchers from the University of Liverpool’s Departments of Chemistry and Computer Science, the algorithm systematically evaluates entire sets of possible structures at once, rather than considering them one at a time, to accelerate the identification of the correct solution.

This breakthrough makes it possible to identify those materials that can be made and, in many cases, to predict their properties. The new method was demonstrated on quantum computers that have the potential to solve many problems faster than classical computers and can therefore speed up the calculations even further.

Our way of life depends on materials – “everything is made of something”. New materials are needed to meet the challenge of net zero, from batteries and solar absorbers for clean power to providing low-energy computing and the catalysts that will make the clean polymers and chemicals for our sustainable future.

This search is slow and difficult because there are so many ways that atoms could be combined to make materials, and in particular so many structures that could form. In addition, materials with transformative properties are likely to have structures that are different from those that are known today, and predicting a structure that nothing is known about is a tremendous scientific challenge.

Professor Matt Rosseinsky, from the University’s Department of Chemistry and Materials Innovation Factory, said: “Having certainty in the prediction of crystal structures now offers the opportunity to identify from the whole of the space of chemistry exactly which materials can be synthesized and the structures that they will adopt, giving us for the first time the ability to define the platform for future technologies.

“With this new tool, we will be able to define how to use those chemical elements that are widely available and begin to create materials to replace those based on scarce or toxic elements, as well as to find materials that outperform those we rely on today, meeting the future challenges of a sustainable society.”

Professor Paul Spirakis, from the University’s Department of Computer Science, said: “We managed to provide a general algorithm for crystal structure prediction that can be applied to a diversity of structures. Coupling local minimization to integer programming allowed us to explore the unknown atomic positions in the continuous space using strong optimization methods in a discrete space.

Our aim is to explore and use more algorithmic ideas in the nice adventure of discovering new and useful materials. Joining efforts of chemists and computer scientists was the key to this success.”

The paper “Optimality Guarantees for Crystal Structure Prediction” was published on July 5 in the journal Nature.

Reference: “Optimality guarantees for crystal structure prediction” by Vladimir V. Gusev, Duncan Adamson, Argyrios Deligkas, Dmytro Antypov, Christopher M. Collins, Piotr Krysta, Igor Potapov, George R. Darling, Matthew S. Dyer, Paul Spirakis and Matthew J. Rosseinsky, 5 July 2023, Nature.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-06071-y

The research team includes researchers from the University of Liverpool’s Departments of Computer Science and Chemistry, the Materials Innovation Factory and the Leverhulme Research Centre for Functional Materials Design, which was established to develop new approaches to the design of functional materials at the atomic scale through interdisciplinary research.

This project has received funding from the Leverhulme Trust and the Royal Society.

Unearthing Rare Earth Elements – Scientists Use AI To Find Rare Materials

By PNAS NEXUS JULY 9, 2023

Pink crystal spodumene. Credit: Robert Lavinsky

By harnessing patterns in mineral associations, a new machine-learning model can predict the locations of minerals on Earth and potentially, other planets. This advancement is of immense value to science and industry, as they continually explore mineral deposits to unravel the planet’s history and to mine resources for practical applications, such as rechargeable batteries.

A team led by Shaunna Morrison and Anirudh Prabhu aimed to develop a method for identifying the occurrence of particular minerals, an objective that has traditionally been considered as much an art as it is a science. This process has often been dependent on individual experience along with a healthy dose of luck.

The team created a machine learning model that uses data from the Mineral Evolution Database, which includes 295,583 mineral localities of 5,478 mineral species, to predict previously unknown mineral occurrences based on association rules.

The authors tested their model by exploring the Tecopa basin in the Mojave Desert, a well-known Mars analog environment. The model was also able to predict the locations of geologically important minerals, including uraninite alteration, rutherfordine, andersonite, and schröckingerite, bayleyite, and zippeite.

In addition, the model located promising areas for critical rare earth elements and lithium minerals, including monazite-(Ce), and allanite-(Ce), and spodumene. Mineral association analysis can be a powerful predictive tool for mineralogists, petrologists, economic geologists, and planetary scientists, according to the authors

Reference: “Predicting new mineral occurrences and planetary analog environments via mineral association analysis” by Shaunna M Morrison, Anirudh Prabhu, Ahmed Eleish, Robert M Hazen, Joshua J Golden, Robert T Downs, Samuel Perry, Peter C Burns, Jolyon Ralph and Peter Fox, 16 May 2023, PNAS Nexus.
DOI: 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgad110

Stunning View of powerful Cyclone Mocha Closing In on Mount Everest

By EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ESA) JULY 9, 2023

The Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite captured a comprehensive image of Cyclone Mocha, a record-breaking storm that originated in the Indian Ocean and ravaged the Bay of Bengal in May 2023. With peak winds of 280 km per hour, it ranks among the strongest storms ever in the North Indian Ocean. Despite weakening slightly before reaching Bangladesh and Myanmar, it still caused widespread damage upon landfall, leading to the loss of homes, infrastructural damage, and inundated croplands. Credit: Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2023), processed by ESA

Cyclone Mocha, a powerful storm, wreaked havoc across the Bay of Bengal in May 2023. The Copernicus Sentinel-3 mission provided vital satellite imagery, aiding disaster response and revealing large-scale global dynamics, including the eastern part of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau.

The Copernicus Sentinel-3 mission captured this image of the powerful Cyclone Mocha on May 13, 2023, as it made its way across the Bay of Bengal heading northeast towards Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Cyclone Mocha originated in the Indian Ocean, and it gradually intensified while moving toward the Bay of Bengal. Winds topped 280 km per hour (175 miles per hour), making it one the strongest storms on record in the North Indian Ocean, similar to Cyclone Fani, which hit the same area in May 2019.

Although the storm weakened slightly as it approached Myanmar and Bangladesh, it caused widespread destruction as it made landfall on May 14.

With thousands of people losing their houses, infrastructure seriously damaged and croplands inundated, both the International Charter Space and Major Disasters and the Copernicus Emergency Mapping Service were triggered to supply maps based on satellite data to help civil protection authorities and the international humanitarian community with their emergency response efforts.

Satellites orbiting Earth can provide indispensable up-to-date information to observe such events, as shown here from Copernicus Sentinel-3. The mission is designed to measure, monitor and understand large-scale global dynamics and provides essential information in near-real time for ocean and weather forecasting.

Acquired with the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument, this wide view covers an area of over 2000 km from north to south. The storm is estimated to be more than 1000 km (600 miles) across.

In the cloud-free portion on top of the image, we can see parts of India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Myanmar, as well as the entire country of Bhutan. The white snow-capped mountains of the eastern part of the Himalayas, including Mount Everest, the highest mountain on the planet, are clearly visible. The Tibetan Plateau – part of China – appears in brownish colors owing to the absence of vegetation.

Moss: An Unassuming Pillar of Planetary Health

By UNIVERSITY OF NEW SOUTH WALES JULY 9, 2023

Mosses, often overlooked and misunderstood, play a vital role in the health of the global environment, according to a study by UNSW Sydney. The research, conducted across diverse ecosystems worldwide, revealed mosses’ importance in ecosystem health, carbon capture, soil nutrient cycling, organic matter decomposition, pathogen control, and preventing erosion.

While many individuals view the growth of moss in their gardens as a nuisance, they may not know that this ancient ancestor of all vegetation carries numerous advantages for our green spaces, including its significant role in combating soil erosion.

Now, a comprehensive global study led by UNSW Sydney discovered that mosses are not merely advantageous to our gardens, but they also critically contribute to the overall health of our planet, especially when growing on the topsoil. Mosses establish the groundwork for plant growth in ecosystems worldwide, and could potentially play a pivotal role in climate change mitigation through their substantial carbon capture capabilities.

In a study published today in the journal Nature Geoscience, lead author Dr. David Eldridge and more than 50 colleagues from international research institutions described how they collected samples of mosses growing on soil from more than 123 ecosystems across the globe, ranging from lush, tropical rainforest, to barren polar landscapes, through to arid deserts like those found in Australia. The researchers found that mosses cover a staggering 9.4 million km2 in the environments surveyed, which compares in size to Canada or China.

“We were originally really interested in how natural systems of native vegetation that haven’t been disturbed much differ from human-made systems like parks and gardens – our green spaces,” says Dr Eldridge, who is with UNSW’s School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences.

“So for this study, we wanted to look at a bit more detail about mosses and what they actually do, in terms of providing essential services to the environment. We looked at what was happening in soils dominated by mosses and what was happening in soils where there were no mosses. And we were gobsmacked to find that mosses were doing all these amazing things.”

It turns out that mosses are the lifeblood of plant ecosystems, that plants actually benefit from having moss as a neighbor. The researchers assessed 24 ways that moss provided benefits to soil and other plants. In patches of soil where mosses were present, there was more nutrient cycling, decomposition of organic matter, and even control of pathogens harmful to other plants and people.

On top of that, the authors say mosses may be instrumental in reabsorbing carbon dioxide. They estimated that compared to bare soils where there was no moss, this ancient precursor to plants is supporting the storage of 6.43 gigatonnes – or 6.43 billion tonnes – of carbon from the atmosphere. These levels of carbon capture are of a similar magnitude to levels of carbon release from agricultural practices such as land clearing and overgrazing.

“So you’ve got all the global emissions from land use change, such as grazing, clearing vegetation, and activities associated with agriculture – we think mosses are sucking up six times more carbon dioxide, so it’s not one to one, it’s six times better,” Dr Eldridge says.

The researchers say that the positive ecological functions of soil mosses are also likely associated with their influence on surface microclimates, such as by affecting soil temperature and moisture.

What exactly is moss?

Mosses are different from vascular plants. They have roots and leaves, but their roots are different, with root-like growths called rhizoids that anchor them to the soil surface.

“Mosses don’t have the plumbing that an ordinary plant has, called a xylem and a phloem, which water moves through,” Dr Eldridge says.

“But moss survives by picking up water from the atmosphere. And some mosses, like the ones in the dry parts of Australia, curl when they get dry, but they don’t die – they live in suspended animation forever. We’ve taken mosses out of a packet after 100 years, squirted them with water, and watched them come to life. Their cells don’t disintegrate like ordinary plants do.”

Without moss, our ecosystems would be in big trouble, says Dr Eldridge. He is amazed that people often see moss as a problem in urban settings when it’s actually playing an important role in nature.

“People think if moss is growing on soil it means the soil is sterile or has something wrong with it. But it’s actually doing great things, you know, in terms of the chemistry of the soil, like adding more carbon and nitrogen, as well as being primary stabilizers when you get lots of disturbance.”

He says when you lose moss through land clearing or natural disturbances, you lose the ability to hold the soil together, leading to erosion.

“And it means you’re going to lose nutrients, you’re going to lose habitat for microbes, the whole system becomes destabilized.”

Moss can even come to the rescue in disturbed ecosystems. Dr. Eldridge points to research examining the area around Mount St Helens Volcano following a devastating eruption in the early 1980s. Most of the flora and fauna were denuded near the eruption site, but researchers who tracked how life returned to the mountain noticed that mosses were among the first forms of life to reappear.

“The first things to come back were cyanobacteria, blue-green algae, because they’re very primitive, and then mosses came back,” he says.

“What we show in our research is that where you have mosses you have a greater level of soil health, such as more carbon and more nitrogen. So they’re helping to prime the soil for the return of trees, shrubs, and grasses, that eventually end up getting out-competed in the process. So they’re the first guys that get in there and fix things up and then first to leave.”

Up next

Future research aims to examine whether urban mosses can create healthy soils as effectively as those growing in natural areas.

“We are also keen to develop strategies to reintroduce mosses into degraded soils to speed up the regeneration process,” Dr Eldridge says. “Mosses may well provide the perfect vehicle to kick start the recovery of severely degraded urban and natural area soils.”

Reference: “The global contribution of soil mosses to ecosystem services” by David J. Eldridge, Emilio Guirado, Peter B. Reich, Raúl Ochoa-Hueso, Miguel Berdugo, Tadeo Sáez-Sandino, José L. Blanco-Pastor, Leho Tedersoo, César Plaza, Jingyi Ding, Wei Sun, Steven Mamet, Haiying Cui, Ji-Zheng He, Hang-Wei Hu, Blessing Sokoya, Sebastian Abades, Fernando Alfaro, Adebola R. Bamigboye, Felipe Bastida, Asunción de los Ríos, Jorge Durán, Juan J. Gaitan, Carlos A. Guerra, Tine Grebenc, Javier G. Illán, Yu-Rong Liu, Thulani P. Makhalanyane, Max Mallen-Cooper, Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, José L. Moreno, Tina U. Nahberger, Gabriel F. Peñaloza-Bojacá, Sergio Picó, Ana Rey, Alexandra Rodríguez, Christina Siebe, Alberto L. Teixido, Cristian Torres-Díaz, Pankaj Trivedi, Juntao Wang, Ling Wang, Jianyong Wang, Tianxue Yang, Eli Zaady, Xiaobing Zhou, Xin-Quan Zhou, Guiyao Zhou, Shengen Liu and Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo, 1 May 2023, Nature Geoscience.
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01170-x

The study was funded by the British Ecological Society, the Hermon Slade Foundation, the Spanish Ministry of Science, the European Research Council, the AEI Project, the Program for Introducing Talents to Universities, the Slovenian Research Agency, and the NSF Biological Integration Institutes.

Native Americans demand land back from Ben & Jerry's after stolen land tweet

NO THEY DON'T ARTICLE IS A SET UP

The Nulhegan Band of the Coosuk Abenaki Nation has expressed interest in reclaiming the land after the ice cream company called for the return of "stolen" lands.

JPOST STILL PISSED AT B&J BDS CALL

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF
Published: JULY 9, 2023 00:01

Ben & Jerry's ice creams on sale at a shop in Jerusalem on July 19, 2021.
(photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH 90)
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The Nulhegan Band of the Coosuk Abenaki Nation, an indigenous tribe descended from the Native American nation that originally inhabited the land where Ben & Jerry's headquarters is located in Vermont, has expressed interest in reclaiming the land after the ice cream company called for the return of "stolen" lands, according to a report by Newsweek.

Chief Don Stevens of the Nulhegan Band stated that they were "always interested in reclaiming the stewardship of our lands," but Ben & Jerry's has not yet approached them on the matter.

Ben & Jerry's recent statement

This development follows Ben & Jerry's recent statement ahead of the United States' Independence Day, acknowledging that the United States was founded on stolen indigenous land and calling for the return of such lands to indigenous people.

The company emphasized the "land back" movement, which aims to restore governance of ancestral lands to indigenous communities who inhabited them for thousands of years.

Ben & Jerry's ice cream sundae (credit: Wikimedia Commons)

"This 4th of July, it's high time we recognize that the US exists on stolen Indigenous land and commit to returning it," Ben & Jerry's wrote on their Twitter with a picture with the statement "The United States was founded on stolen Indigenous land. This Fourth of July, let's commit to returning it."


This 4th of July, it's high time we recognize that the US exists on stolen Indigenous land and commit to returning it. Learn more and take action now: https://t.co/45smaBmORH pic.twitter.com/a6qp7LXUAE— Ben & Jerry's (@benandjerrys) July 4, 2023

While Ben & Jerry's focused primarily on the land taken from the Lakota in South Dakota, it prompted discussions about the return of land to various Native American tribes across the nation.

The question of acknowledging historic tribal lands is complex and contentious, as it involves reconciling the claims of Native Americans, who suffered violent persecution and displacement, with the established borders of a modern nation.

Whose land is the Ben & Jerry's factory sitting on?

Maps reveal that the Abenaki, a confederacy of tribes untied against rival tribal confederacies, controlled a vast area stretching from northern Massachusetts to New Brunswick, Canada, and from the St. Lawrence River to the East Coast.

Ben & Jerry's headquarters, situated in southern Burlington, falls within the western portion of this historic territory, although it does not reside within any present-day tribal lands.

Chief Don Stevens expressed the tribe's interest in reclaiming stewardship of their lands and providing opportunities to uplift their communities.

However, he clarified that the Nulhegan Tribe has not been approached by Ben & Jerry's regarding any land restitution opportunities.

Stevens stated that if such discussions were to occur, careful conversations and considerations would be necessary to determine the best way forward for all parties involved.

Ben & Jerry's has not responded publicly to the calls for returning the land on which their headquarters is situated.

Record-breaking wildfire season will continue for months: officials

Canada's record-breaking wildfire season will continue to be abnormally intense throughout July and into August, posing a threat to communities across the country

Laura Osman, The Canadian Pressabout 15 hours ago

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A helicopter carrying a water basket flies past a smoke plume near Lebel-sur-Quevillon, Que., Wednesday, July 5, 2023. Natural Resources Canada says the country's record-breaking wildfire season will continue to be greater than normal throughout July and into August. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

OTTAWA — Canada's record-breaking wildfire season will continue to be abnormally intense throughout July and into August, Natural Resources Canada projected Thursday, posing a greater threat to the safety and health of communities across the country.

The wildfire season has been unusually severe this year, breaking historical records on the amount of land burned and affecting communities that are unaccustomed to dealing with the flames and smoke. 

"The risk of forest fires is going to remain very high," Michael Norton, director general with the Canadian Forestry Service, said at a briefing Thursday.

Atlantic provinces and eastern Quebec are expected to see more normal conditions in August, but other parts of the country can expect the severity forecast to be well above average, projections show. 

The forecasts are based on anticipated high temperatures, dry conditions and historical comparisons, Norton said.

The flames have threatened critical infrastructure and forced evacuations while the prolonged exposure to smoke has created potentially dangerous conditions, particularly for people with pre-existing health concerns. 

The months of intense fires spread out between British Columbia and the Atlantic provinces has also stretched Canada's firefighting capacity, and the government has called in 3,258 international firefighters to help over the course of the season. 

Despite the ongoing challenge, Norton said the government is confident they'll be able to sustain the number of firefighters needed until the flames die down. 

Canada surpassed the known historic record for total area burned by wildfires in one season on June 27, with months of hot weather still to come. 

The number of fires has more than doubled since that month, from 323 active fires at the beginning of June to 656 this week.

Some 88,000 square kilometres have burned as of July 5. Put together the burned land is be larger than the size of Lake Superior, and nearly 11 times the average amount burned by that date over the past 10 years. 

More Canadians have been evacuated from their homes this year than in the last four decades, with more than 155,000 forced to leave due to fire and smoke. 

Earlier in the season, the majority of fires were thought to have been caused by human activity, but since June 1 almost three in four fires are confirmed to have been started by lightning.

Emergency Preparedness Minister Bill Blair said he expected this season would be difficult when it began months earlier than typically anticipated, calling the weather projections at that time "sobering and concerning."

Long and intense fire seasons have become more common in Canada, however, and the minister said climate change is to blame.

"I would not want to suggest that this is the new normal," he said at an online press conference Thursday.

"Given the difficult conditions, the concerning conditions that persist right across many parts of the country, I think it's very important that Canadians be aware of their risk, that they take the steps that are necessary to prepare." 

The risk isn't only to communities threatened by nearby fires, but also from the smoke that can travel great distances and settle over communities for days at a time.

The smoke can be particularly dangerous for people with heart and lung conditions, and Health Canada recommends people stay indoors in well-ventilated areas when the air quality is poor. 

For most people, though, overheating can be worse than breathing smoke, said chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam.

"If you did not have air conditioning and it's too warm to stay inside with the windows closed, seek out a local cooling or clean air space," she advised. 

"If you must spend time outside, consider using a well-fitted respirator type mask, like an N95, to reduce exposure to the fine particles from wildfire smoke."

Provincial and federal governments haven't tallied up the costs associated with this fire season yet, but expect the final figure will be considerable, given the record-breaking conditions.

"I believe the cost of this one will be as high as this event has been extreme in its impact across the country," Blair said. 

This report by The Canadian Press was first published July 6, 2023.

— With files from Mia Rabson.

Laura Osman, The Canadian Press

Wildfires 'off the charts' in Canada as temperatures climb

Smoke rises as a wildfire burns south of Lebel-sur-Quevillon, Quebec, Wednesday, Jul 5, 2023. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press via AP)

08 Jul 2023 

MONTREAL: The number of forest fires continues to rise in Canada, climbing on Friday (Jul 7) to more than 670 blazes - more than 380 of them out of control - with a long and difficult summer ahead.

"The numbers are literally off the charts, with at least three more months left in the active wildfire season," said Michael Norton of the Canadian Ministry of Natural Resources.

And weather forecasts for the coming weeks predict above-average temperatures in many parts of the country in the west, and also in northern Quebec, the worst-hit region.

With nine million hectares already gone up in smoke - 11 times the average for the last decade - the absolute annual record set in 1989 has been surpassed.

Authorities tallied 677 active fires in the country on Friday, with 13 new blazes discovered during the day, including 386 that were burning out of control.

About 155,000 people have been forced to leave their homes at some point due to the fires since the beginning of May, the highest figure for 40 years.

"It's no understatement to say that the 2023 fire season is and will continue to be record-breaking in a number of ways," Norton said, adding that he expected the number of fires to remain above average throughout the summer.

The fires ravage areas on both sides of the country, and areas unaccustomed to fires are affected.

One of the forest fires in northern Quebec alone burned more than one million hectares.

"From evacuations to poor air quality and extreme heat warnings, we are experiencing the reality of climate change effects," Health Minister Jean-Yves Duclos said.

Related:

Fires intensify in Canada, could last 'all summer'


This has forced authorities to rely on an unprecedented level of international aid to support the 3,800 Canadian firefighters on the ground, backed up by the Canadian Armed Forces.

"The firefighting effort has now truly become a global effort," Norton said.

A total of over 3,000 international firefighters - hailing from countries including New Zealand, Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico, Spain and South Korea - are hard at work tackling the mega-fires.

Smoke from the fires so far this season has fouled the air in Canada and neighbouring United States, affecting more than 100 million people, at times disrupting flights and forcing the cancellation of outdoor events.

Source: AFP/gs

Wildfires in Canada have broken records for area burned, evacuations and cost, official says

Wildfires raging across Canada have already broken records for total areas burned, the number of people forced to evacuate their homes and the cost of fighting the blazes, and the fire season is only halfway finished

ByThe Associated Press
July 6, 2023,

Smoke billows from the Donnie Creek wildfire burning north of Fort St. John, British Columbia, Canada, Sunday, July 2, 2023. (AP Photo/Noah Berger, File)

VANCOUVER, British Columbia -- Wildfires raging across Canada have already broken records for total area burned, the number of people forced to evacuate their homes and the cost of fighting the blazes, and the fire season is only halfway finished, officials said Thursday.

“It’s no understatement to say that the 2023 fire season is and will continue to be record breaking in a number of ways,” Michael Norton, director general, Northern Forestry Centre, Canadian Forest Service, said during a briefing.

A health expert also warned that smoke from the fires can cause health problems for people living in both Canada and the United States.

“When you’re emitting large amounts of fire smoke into the air, and that smoke is reaching populated areas, there will be health effects,” said Ryan Allen, a professor of health sciences at Simon Fraser University in Burnaby, British Columbia.

Norton said warm weather and dry conditions across Canada indicate the potential for higher-than-normal fire activity through July and August.

“Drought is a major contributing factor affecting parts of all provinces and territories, intensifying in some regions,” he said. “When coupled with forecasts for ongoing above normal temperatures across most of the country, it is anticipated that many parts of Canada will continue to see above normal fire activity."

As of Wednesday, there were 639 active fires burning in Canada with 351 of them out of control. So far this year there have been 3,412 fires, well above the 10-year average of 2,751, said Norton.

The fires have burned 8.8 million hectares (27.7 million acres) an area about the size of the state of Virginia. This already exceeds the record of 7.6 million hectares (18.7 million acres) set in 1989 and is 11 times the 10-year average experienced by this date.

“The final area burned for this season may yet be significantly higher,” said Norton. “What we can say with certainty right now is that 2023 is a record-breaking year since at least since 1986 when accurate records started to be kept.”

Allen said the fine particles found in fire smoke not only have the ability to penetrate deep into airways, they also can travel long distances meaning they could drift far into the U.S.
There have been reports that fires in Eastern Canada and Quebec are affecting air quality in Europe
Allen said higher concentrations of smoke increases health risks to the lungs, brain, cognitive functions and even fetal development.

“As you get very far away, it’s unlikely the concentration would be as high as they are in close proximity to the fire and therefore the health risk would be lower, but the health risk is probably not zero,” he said.

Norton said the fires have forced an estimated 155,856 evacuees, the highest number in the last four decades. Currently about 4,500 people remain under evacuation orders across the country with about 3,400 in Indigenous communities.

Fighting the fires has taken on a global proportion.

There are about 3,790 provincial firefighters battling the blazes across the country being assisted by Canadian Armed Forces personnel. Another 3,258 firefighters from Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, the U.S., Chile, Costa Rica, Mexico, Spain, Portugal, South Korea and the European Union have travelled to Canada to fight fires.

Norton said the cost of fighting wildfires has steadily grown and is approaching about CDN$1 billion (US$750 million) a year.

“With the scale of this year’s activity and the fact we’ve still got three months left, there’s no question in my mind the direct cost of suppression will be a new record,” he said.

What would net-zero shipping look like?

(Image credit: Oceanbird)

By Isabelle Gerretsen

BBC

7th July 2023

The International Maritime Organization has set a net-zero goal "by or around 2050". What is needed to reach this?

At a UN summit, countries have agreed to curb shipping emissions to net zero "by or around 2050".

At the annual meeting of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), countries agreed to cut emissions by 20% by 2030 and 70% by 2040, compared to 2008 levels, and 100% by or around 2050. Small island nations and richer countries had called for a 50% reduction by 2030 and 96% by 2040.

Kitack Lim, Secretary-General of the IMO, described the deal as a "monumental development [that] opens a new chapter towards maritime decarbonisation". But campaigners warn that the deal is flawed and will fail to bring the shipping industry in line with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5C by the end of this century.

Shipping is a highly polluting industry, responsible for nearly 3% of global emissions and generating around 1 billion tonnes of greenhouse gases each year - roughly the same amount as Germany's carbon footprint. If it were a country, the shipping industry would be the sixth largest polluter in the world.

Reducing maritime emissions rapidly in the next three decades will require new regulations, infrastructure and fuels. But what might green shipping of the future look like?

The world's largest wind-powered ship

Wind-powered ships

The shipping industry can reduce its reliance on fossil fuels by turning to an ancient technology: sails. Wind propulsion is considered one of the most promising energy sources available for the rapid decarbonisation of shipping. Swedish company Oceanbird has built a prototype ship with four rigid sails. Wind power not only propels the ship forward but also aids its manoeuvrability and agility on the water. One of the biggest challenges is encouraging governments and investors to adopt wind propulsion and retrofit ships, while wind propulsion is still early-stage. (Read more: Will shipping return to its ancient roots?)

 

Norwegian ship Edda Breeze has been built to run on a hydrogen-based propulsion system 

(Credit: Alamy)

Hydrogen

Deploying clean fuels such as hydrogen is critical if the shipping industry is to reach net zero by 2050. Green hydrogen - generated by using renewable energy, such as wind or solar power, to extract hydrogen from water molecules - is emissions-free. But there are some major challenges when deploying hydrogen: the fuel must be stored at cryogenic temperatures of -253C (-423F) and crew must be trained how to handle it as the fuel is highly flammable. (Read more about the fuel that could transform shipping).

Maersk has ordered a total of 25 methanol-powered ships 

(Credit: Getty Images)

Methanol

Maersk, the world's second-largest container shipping company, is betting big on green methanol to help it decarbonise. The company has ordered a total of 25 methanol-powered ships to date. Green methanol is a low-carbon fuel which can be produced from sustainable biomass or by using renewable electricity to split water into oxygen and hydrogen, which is combined with carbon dioxide. Unlike hydrogen, green methanol does not have to be stored under pressure or extreme cold, and many ports already have infrastructure in place to store the fuel. But the process is complex: CO2 must be captured out of the atmosphere, technology which is still emerging, expensive and as yet unproven.

 

The largest battery-powered river container ship transports goods on the Yangtze River in China 

(Credit: Getty Images)

Electric boats

Batteries charged using renewable electricity are another way to curb shipping emissions. But there are limits to the distances they can power. Currently, renewable batteries are an option only for smaller ships making short journeys, such as ferries and river boats, not for large cargo ships crossing oceans. Instead, ship owners are looking to power cargo ships with a combination of wind power and solar panels.Japanese renewable energy systems company Eco Marine Power, for example, has developed " EnergySails": rigid sails fitted with solar panels, which allow ships to use both solar and wind energy at the same time.

Switching to green fuels in shipping will require investment in renewable energy infrastructure at ports (Credit: Getty Images)

Green infrastructure

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NARWHAL

INVESTIGATION
Oilsands giants pushed feds to delay and weaken emissions cap rules

Through the Pathways Alliance, an organization of some of Canada’s largest oil producers, high-level bureaucrats were asked for long lead times and a ‘flexible, non-regulatory approach’ to usher in a limit on the sector’s air pollution

By Carl Meyer
July 5, 2023

LONG READ

 EXCERPT

The Pathways Alliance plastered Toronto streetcars and Vancouver billboards with optimistic messages about its plan to slash pollution and help Canada meet its climate goals. Behind the scenes, the coalition of fossil fuel producers struck a different tone.

A collection of internal government documents obtained by The Narwhal show how six major oil companies lobbied the federal government to weaken and delay plans to place a cap on heat-trapping pollution from the oil and gas sector.

The Narwhal pieced together the extent of industry lobbying after reviewing six separate responses to access to information requests, totalling 69 pages. These documents show that, as early as December 2021, oil companies in the Pathways Alliance — Suncor, ExxonMobil affiliate Imperial Oil, Canadian Natural Resources, ConocoPhillips Canada, MEG Energy and Cenovus — were urging the government to consider “flexible and cost-effective” rules and give the industry a “long lead time” to prepare before they mitigate how they are contributing to the global climate crisis.

The comments were part of the government’s early, informal consultations on the emissions cap that would signal the start of months of meetings between senior government officials and Pathways executives touching on the cap’s design.

The documents — released by Natural Resources Canada — also show the lobbyists pressured the government to take a “non-regulatory approach” on slashing carbon pollution, one that could make it easier for industry and provincial governments to challenge or delay federal climate action through the courts.

An internal spreadsheet shows the Pathways Alliance lobbying the federal government in 2021 over upcoming rules for a cap on emissions from the oil and gas sector. Screenshot: Natural Resources Canada / Government of Canada

The documents include numerous examples of how oil lobbyists may be misleading the public.

Despite telling Canadians its net-zero plan was “in motion” and it was “making clear strides,” the documents show the Alliance downplayed progress in private discussions with the government. The lobbyists said technologies needed to fight the climate crisis are “still on the lab bench,” or in other words still in development. And while these same companies have reported making record profits, they claim they don’t have enough money to implement climate-friendly solutions.

“This is further evidence that the oil industry is aggressively lobbying for more government subsidies, loopholes and lower ambition,” said assistant professor Amy Janzwood at McGill University’s Bieler School of the Environment, who studies fossil fuel production and sustainable energy and reviewed the Alliance’s comments at The Narwhal’s request.

The Pathways Alliance did not respond to The Narwhal’s requests for comment. The industry group’s president said in June that the group has “enough in our toolkit today, with existing game-day-ready technologies, that can get us to net zero” and that the oilsands companies don’t need to rely on “some future breakthrough technology that doesn’t exist today.”

Oil and gas firms want delayed, ‘flexible, non-regulatory approach’

The Pathways Alliance formed in the summer of 2021. It was initially founded by five oilsands producers — Suncor, Imperial Oil, Cenovus, Canadian Natural Resources and MEG Energy. At the time, they claimed they would achieve “net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from oilsands operations by 2050,” in order to “help Canada meet its climate goals, including its Paris Agreement commitments and 2050 net-zero aspirations.” In November 2021, ConocoPhillips Canada joined the group as the sixth member.


The Alliance’s lobbying on the emissions cap would happen just six weeks after the group had fully formed. The Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had won the September 2021 federal election on a platform that promised to “cap and cut emissions from oil and gas.”

The details of the Alliance’s feedback, recorded in a Natural Resources Canada chart released to The Narwhal, shows how the government had asked the Alliance for its “high-level preliminary thinking” on the design of the cap. At the time, the government was also consulting with provinces and territories, other oil and gas industry groups and major companies, the details of which were censored in the released records.

The Pathways Alliance told the government it should “consider a feasible implementation plan to get to net zero” that would allow for a “long lead time” for the companies to prepare, according to a summary of the group’s comments in the departmental chart.

The Alliance asked the government to consider “sector level targets that are flexible and cost-effective” for the emissions cap, and that it wanted a “flexible, non-regulatory approach” to emissions cap rules.

Pathways also said the emissions cap’s first milestone in 2025 should be primarily about having the foundations in place for “deep decarbonization” to happen sometime “in the future.”

Flexibility is a common refrain in fossil fuel lobbying and submissions to the Canadian federal government, said Sofia Basheer, a senior analyst at the London-based energy think-tank InfluenceMap, who tracks oil and gas industry influence.

The group’s February report examining the Canadian oil and gas industry found the Pathways Alliance “appears to be getting increasing traction in Canadian climate policy debates,” by emphasizing support for emissions reductions from its operations and support for carbon capture technology, while also advocating in favour of “a long-term role for oil.”

The organization said it could not identify any evidence of the Alliance putting forward a position on the role for oil that would align with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s recommendations.

“It seems like these are attempts to weaken the ambition of the [emissions cap] policy,” Basheer said. “They do not really talk about what flexibility, or compliance flexibility, means.”

Basheer said the comments from Pathways demonstrate how oil companies are misleading the public about being able to produce carbon-free oil. That was the basis for a Greenpeace Canada-led complaint about the group’s marketing practices that Canada’s Competition Bureau is now investigating, she said.

“When you advertise to the public ‘We can produce net-zero oil,’ they are not telling the whole story,” Basheer said

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The Pathways Alliance has promoted a plan to capture emissions from oilsands facilities and build a new pipeline to transport the captured carbon to underground storage areas. But it has said its decarbonization plans will depend on federal government funding. Photo: Amber Bracken / The Narwhal

Carbon capture technology ‘still on the lab bench,’ decarbonization will ‘depend’ on government support

The Alliance’s plans rely on technology that hasn’t yet been fully developed, or budgeted for, it told the government.

The Pathways Alliance has said it will capture carbon dioxide emissions from oilsands facilities and build a new pipeline to transport the captured carbon to underground storage areas. It also has plans to electrify some of its operations with non-emitting electricity by using small modular nuclear reactors.

The group asked the government to “take into account” how its decarbonization plan relies on carbon capture and nuclear technologies that “are still on the lab bench,” according to its December 2021 comments on the emissions cap.

“Decarbonisation will depend on the federal government’s ability to fund and incent the transition,” added the Alliance.

The government’s early consultations on the emissions cap were followed by another round on Feb. 1, 2022, when senior public servants in Natural Resources Canada and Environment and Climate Change Canada heard from Pathways Alliance members for a second time, according to an April 2022 briefing note prepared for one of the departmental deputy ministers.

During those consultations the oilpatch group expressed concerns over “the challenge of economic feasibility” surrounding the emissions cap, and highlighted the “need for government support” as well as “fiscal and regulatory support.”

Pathways also flagged “the need to avoid short-term measures with lower-long-term potential.” It’s unclear what this means, and Pathways did not respond to The Narwhal’s questions seeking clarity.

Several witnesses who appeared at the House of Commons environment committee’s study on fossil fuel subsidies said public funding of carbon capture technology risks promoting future oil and gas extraction at a time when scientists say fossil fuel production must be scaled back.

As a result, the committee recommended the government “ensure that all its policies and measures, including those related to support for the fossil fuel sector, are consistent with — and efficiently achieve — the country’s 2030 emissions reduction goals and its 2050 net-zero emissions goals.”

While opinions may vary about the oil and gas sector’s ability and desire to decarbonize, there was an “elephant in the room” when it comes to the Pathways plan, said Russill — the fact that the oil it produces will still generate emissions when it’s burned.

Carbon capture in the oil and gas sector “does nothing to reduce the approximately 80 per cent of emissions that come after production, from burning fossil fuels in cars and homes, for energy generation,” the committee noted.

Canada is the fourth largest oil producer in the world, but about four-fifths of the oil it produces is exported — so the country avoids responsibility for all the carbon pollution created when its exported oil is used in foreign countries.

“The Pathways Alliance is primarily focused on their own operational net zero,” Basheer said.

“They want to produce oil, but remove any emissions associated with their oil and gas production. But at the same time, they don’t care about what happens when their oil is burned, which is where our primary chunk of emissions comes from.”
‘The risk of production shut-in,’ or when lowering emissions means less oil and gas is extracted

During the government’s February 2022 consultations on the emissions cap, the Pathways Alliance outlined a number of “key concerns,” the briefing note prepared for the Natural Resources Canada deputy minister stated. At the top of the list was “the risk of production shut-in.”

The idea that placing a cap on oil and gas emissions could lead, inadvertently or not, to limiting the amount of oil that would be produced in Canada, has become a main message of the Pathways Alliance in the months since it first lobbied the government on the topic.

The theory works this way: if the government makes a rule limiting the pollution fossil fuel companies emit, but the companies have not yet implemented the technology to capture that pollution or make less of it, the only other way to comply with the new rule would be to produce less oil and gas in the first place  

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The federal government reassured oil companies that an emissions cap would not limit production of oil, according to this briefing note. Screenshot: Natural Resources Canada / Government of Canada

In August 2022, for example, the Alliance penned an editorial suggesting an oil and gas sector emissions cut in line with Canada’s 2030 climate plan was “simply unworkable given current technology, construction and regulatory requirements.”

“Impractical timeframes” for emissions targets, the editorial continued, could drive away investment, “reducing production in Canada and increasing production and emissions in other countries.”

But some economists say the Canadian industry’s future depends more on the price of oil in world energy markets, and how fast Canada and other countries implement climate policies and transition away from fossil fuels.

In the International Energy Agency’s net zero by 2050 scenario, where much of the world implements strong climate policies, global crude oil consumption would plummet from 94 million barrels per day to 22 million barrels per day in 2050, as countries become oversupplied with petroleum products no one wants anymore.

That oversupply would translate into much lower crude oil prices, the agency said — dropping from around US$75 per barrel today to US$35 per barrel by 2030, and US$24 per barrel by 2050 (all figures in 2021 dollars).

Those low prices, in turn, will be the “dominant factor” in a steady decline of oil production in the Canadian oilsands after 2030, according to a recent major report by the Canada Energy Regulator.

“The impact that the price of global commodities have on our analysis is very important,” Jean-Denis Charlebois, the regulator’s chief economist, told The Narwhal.

Everything from fuel to maintenance, royalties and climate policies like carbon pricing will drive up operating costs for producers, to the point where they start to outweigh revenues. At that point, facilities will start to close, the regulator said.

“Oilsands facilities that have the highest operating costs begin shutting down early in the 2030s. As oil prices continue to drop, more and more facilities shut down production, and only the lowest-cost projects are still producing in 2050,” the report stated.

The regulator found that oilsands oil production would fall to 0.58 million barrels per day in 2050, or 83 per cent lower than in 2022. Canadian crude oil production as a whole would drop 76 per cent from 2022 levels by 2050, or from five million barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels per day.

Nevertheless, the fear of an oil “production cap” being the result of a domestic Canadian emissions cap became a theme in internal government conversations with Pathways representatives, documents show.

During a June 7, 2022 meeting between Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson and the Canadian Fuels Association’s board of directors, for example, the minister’s briefing note included the talking point that “the intent of the cap is not to curtail production unless it is driven by declines in global demand.”

Four months later, when Cenovus, one of the Pathways Alliance companies, requested a meeting with Hannaford, the deputy minister from Natural Resources Canada, he was instructed to tell the company the following: “Let me assure you that a cap on emissions in the oil and gas sector is not a cap on production.”

While the federal government’s plan for capping emissions from oil and gas hasn’t yet been released, Basheer says there is a narrative in political circles about how it’s possible to have net zero oil. But she says this narrative doesn’t align with science.

“It shows that the lobbying was actually working.”