Astronomers produce most sensitive radio image ever of ancient star cluster

NTERNATIONAL CENTRE FOR RADIO ASTRONOMY RESEARCH

PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATION

 

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THE TEAM IDENTIFIED A NEW RADIO SOURCE (WHITE SQUARE) IN THE CENTRE OF THE CLUSTER (RED CIRCLE).

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CREDIT: CREDIT: PADUANO ET AL.

The image is of the second brightest globular cluster in the night sky—known as 47 Tucanae—and was produced by a team led by the Curtin University node of the International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research (ICRAR) in Western Australia.

The scientists also detected a previously undiscovered radio signal from the centre of the cluster.

The research was published overnight in The Astrophysical Journal.

Astronomer Dr Arash Bahramian, from ICRAR’s Curtin University node, says star clusters are an ancient relic of the early Universe.

“Globular clusters are very old, giant balls of stars that we see around the Milky Way,” he said. “They’re incredibly dense, with tens of thousands to millions of stars packed together in a sphere.

“Our image is of 47 Tucanae, one of the most massive globular clusters in the galaxy. It has over a million stars and a very bright, very dense core.”

Dr Bahramian said the ultra-sensitive image was created from more than 450 hours of observations on CSIRO’s Australia Telescope Compact Array (ATCA), on Gomeroi Country.

It is the deepest, most sensitive radio image ever compiled by any Australian radio telescope.

Dr Bahramian said 47 Tucanae can be seen with the naked eye and was first catalogued in the 1700s.

But he said imaging it in such great detail allowed astronomers to discover an incredibly faint radio signal at the centre of the cluster that had not been detected before.

Lead author Dr Alessandro Paduano, from ICRAR’s Curtin University node, said the detection of the signal was an exciting discovery and could be attributed to one of two possibilities.

“The first is that 47 Tucanae could contain a black hole with a mass somewhere between the supermassive black holes found in the centres of galaxies and the stellar black holes created by collapsed stars,” he said.

“While intermediate-mass black holes are thought to exist in globular clusters, there hasn’t been a clear detection of one yet.

“If this signal turns out to be a black hole, it would be a highly significant discovery and the first ever radio detection of one inside a cluster.”

The second possible source of the signal is a pulsar—a rotating neutron star that emits radio waves.

“A pulsar this close to a cluster centre is also a scientifically interesting discovery, as it could be used to search for a central black hole that is yet to be detected.” Dr Paduano said.

Co-author Dr Tim Galvin, a research scientist with CSIRO, said the project once again demonstrated the ongoing importance of ATCA.

“This project has stretched our software to its limits, in terms of both data management and processing, and it has been really exciting to see the wealth of science that these techniques have enabled.”

“Alessandro's research represents a culmination of years of research and technological advancements, and ATCA's ultra-deep image of 47 Tucanae represents just the beginning of the discoveries that are yet to come.”

The ultra-sensitive image produced is what researchers can expect from the SKA radio telescopes, currently being built in Australia and South Africa by the SKA Observatory (SKAO).

Once complete, the SKA telescopes will be the two largest radio telescope arrays in the world, transforming our understanding of the Universe and tackling some of the most fundamental scientific questions of our time.

Dr Bahramian said researchers are continually finding new and innovative ways to get the best out of the radio telescopes they use.

“We managed to achieve close to SKA-quality science with the current generation of radio telescopes, combining hundreds of hours of observations to reveal the faintest details,” he said.

“It gives us a glimpse of the exciting capabilities the next generation of radio telescopes will achieve when they come online.”

The technique used for the ultra-sensitive image could help future radio telescopes, such as the SKA, to detect some of the faintest objects in the Universe.JOURNALThe Astrophysical Journal

The dense ball of stars that makes up globular cluster 47 Tucanae

CREDIT

Credits: NASA, ESA, and the Hubble Heritage (STScI/AURA)-ESA/Hubble Collaboration

The discovery was made using CSIRO's Australia Telescope Compact Array

CREDIT

Credit: Alex Cherney/CSIRO

Discovery inside globular cluster 47 Tucanae (VIDEO)

John Lennon's deportation lawyer Leon Wildes dies aged 90

American lawyer Leon Wildes became part of musical history as he represented John Lennon as the former Beatle tried to get his US visas extended.


Saturday 13 January 2024 

Image:(L-R): Yoko Ono, John Lennon and attorney Leon Wildes in 1972. Pic: AP

An American lawyer who fought a years-long battle in the 1970s to prevent John Lennon from being deported from the US has died aged 90.

Leon Wildes, whose health had been declining since he suffered a series of strokes, died on Monday at Lenox Hill Hospital in Manhattan, his family said.

His name became part of musical and political history after, in 1972, he got involved in the case involving Lennon and Yoko Ono, who needed help getting their visas extended.

He eventually succeeded, becoming a hero among Beatles fans.

John Lennon in New York in 1968. Pic: Ap

'No idea who they are'


Mr Wildes agreed to meet with the couple at the Manhattan offices of Apple Records, the label founded by the Beatles in the late 1960s.

But he confessed to an old law school classmate, Alan Kahn, that he didn't know Lennon and his artist wife.

"I have no idea who these people are," he said.

The Beatles on the Ed Sullivan Show in New York in 1964. Pic: AP

Mr Wildes thought that preventing the deportation would be a formality - but in fact the case turned into one of the most dramatic legal struggles of the era.

The US government sought to have Lennon deported citing a bust in London in 1968, when the former Beatle pleaded guilty to possession of "cannabis resin".

Under US law at the time, non-residents faced deportation if "convicted of any law or regulation relating to the illicit possession" of narcotic drugs or marijuana.

Nixon's fears

But government files later suggested that in fact then President Richard Nixon feared the influence that Lennon and Ono - who opposed the Vietnam War and backed efforts to defeat him - might have in the 1972 election, especially on the young voters.

With musicians and other artists urging the government to let Lennon stay, Mr Wildes managed to get the deportation delayed and ultimately revoked.

He first found a loophole in the immigration drug law and eventually, amid the Watergate scandal and Mr Nixon's resignation, managed to get an order in October 1975 that reversed the deportation order.

John Lennon and Yoko Ono at the Cannes Film Festival in 1971 Pic: AP

Lennon was shot and killed by Mark Chapman in New York City in 1980.

Mr Wildes remained close to Yoko, and even attended some Beatles conventions, recalling later how "dozens of people came up, shook my hand and thanked me for what I had done for John Lennon".

"And I learned from these wonderful people that it is really something to marvel about and to enjoy this beautiful music of the Beatles."

A look at AUKUS – The Indo-Pacific quasi-alliance

ANALYSIS
A look at AUKUS – The Indo-Pacific quasi-alliance
By J. Vitor Tossini
- January 13, 2024


AUKUS is a tripartite security initiative of the United States, the UK, and Australia that seeks to reinforce its members’ interests and position in the Indo-Pacific.

The message is threefold.Firstly, the United States is deeply committed to the region despite its setbacks in the Middle East, and the pivot to the Indo-Pacific is marching on.
Secondly, the UK is putting some substance into Global Britain and remains a European actor not locked to Europe, capable of pursuing its interests beyond its immediate strategic neighbourhood.
Thirdly, Australia has chosen to deepen its traditionally close ties with the United States and the UK due to an increased sense of isolation and years of strained diplomatic and commercial with China.

Given the already special relationship among its members, the AUKUS initiative might be regarded as a quasi-alliance even if it does not aim to be one.

This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines.

On 15 September 2021, the governments of Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States jointly announced the creation of AUKUS, a new tripartite security partnership focused on the Indo-Pacific. AUKUS conception occurred as a framework for the UK and the US to provide nuclear-powered submarines to Australia.

However, beyond nuclear-powered submarines, the overreaching objective of AUKUS is to function as a dipositive for cooperation in military technology between its three members with the ultimate long-term purpose of strengthening their relative position in an increasingly competitive international system. Within this context, the partnership also covers cooperation on electronic and cyber-warfare, quantum technologies, artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, undersea capabilities, and innovation.



Although Washington, London and Canberra reiterated that AUKUS is focused on military capabilities, its scope even advances into information-sharing on military-related issues, complementing a field that all three members already have a high-rate quality of exchange through the intelligence-sharing alliance, the Five-Eyes, alongside Canada and New Zealand.



Since its announcement in 2021, AUKUS has been divided into two tiers or pillars covering different cooperation features among the three members. Tier I focuses on providing Australia with a fleet of nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), replacing the current Australian Collin-class diesel-electric submarine with the SSN-AUKUS. The United States agreed to sell up to five of its Virginia-class to avoid capability gaps until the British-designed SSN-AUKUS enters the Royal Australian Navy service.

Hence, Tier I also includes investments in the three countries to enhance the availability of naval workforce and expand infrastructure. In Britain and Australia, those investments aim to achieve the commissioning dates of the SSN-AUKUS within the late 2030s and early 2040s timeframe. In the United States, their purpose is to provide the promised Virgina-class submarines in the early 2030s without leaving gaps within the US Navy.

Tier I also covers the agreements that will allow the Royal Navy and the US Navy to start in 2027 a rotational submarine force based in HMAS Stirling, the so-called “Submarine Rotational Force-West”. In short, Tier I includes most efforts concerning the submarines, training Australian crews in Britain, and deployment of British and American vessels to Australian naval bases.



Tier II is an emerging component that includes technology and information sharing. Tier II aims to deepen cooperation on critical capabilities, maintaining the traditional technological edge of the AUKUS members over its competitors in the Indo-Pacific. In addition, improving interoperability and joint deployment of forces are the primary rationale underlying AUKUS.

Hence, there is a need for further cooperation in the areas that will enable the future military assets of Britain, the United States and Australia to be amongst the most interchangeable and interoperable in the world. Concerning this issue, the initiative aims to improve exchange and joint research on the already mentioned hypersonic and counter-hypersonic capabilities, radars – including the Deep Space Advanced Radar Capability (DARC) programme –, artificial intelligence, and quantum technologies.



The underlying geopolitical message sent through the announcement of AUKUS is that most of the “Anglosphere” nations are reinforcing their alliance to improve their relative standing and counter the efforts of emerging threats to gain naval and, later, geostrategic dominance in the Indo-Pacific. Moreover, for Australia, the tripartite initiative is a call back to the idea of retaining close links to its “two great friends” – Britain and the United States – in times of resurgence of the notion of isolation derived from a geographically close power that might block the lanes between the country and its allies.

In Australia, the question of China’s rising influence over the nation has seen increased questioning. Since the late 2000s and early 2010s, the strategic environment surrounding Australia has changed significantly. Once, Canberra – like London’s golden era of UK-China relations (2010-2016) – rode on the wave of the growing Chinese market. By 2020, within the context of an already strained bilateral relationship, the Lowy Institute indicated that Australia had the most “China-dependent economy” of the Group of 20 (G20).



Economic dependence can quickly become a source of political leverage. Reports of interference from China’s interference in Australian politics are signals that Beijing is willing to exploit the dependence of those that do not fall in line. Thus, in part, the debate in Australia is one between establishing a balance of having China as an economic partner without significant economic dependence. In this case, AUKUS might be seen as a result of the effort of those worried about China’s increased assertive position in the region and the place of Australia within a Chinese sphere of influence.

For the United States, although not explicitly, AUKUS is a standpoint of a long-term strategy to contain China while reinforcing the position of Australia within the American security umbrella. Additionally, there are clear benefits to the American military-industrial complex through selling three to five Virginia-class submarines beginning in the early 2030s as a gap-filler before the five SSN-AUKUS enter Australian service and even closer cooperation with Australia and Britain.



For example, the American Government is investing in the industrial base to increase construction and maintenance capacity within this context. With AUKUS, the United States will have a unified submarine posture in the Indo-Pacific and an unprecedented level of interoperability with British and Australian submarines. In other words, Washington is counting on London and Canberra to play a part in the Indo-Pacific, and the tripartite initiative enhances the position of its British and Australian allies in the region. Starting in 2027, up to four American and one British submarine will be on rotational deployments to HMAS Stirling naval base near Perth. In the late 2030s and early 2040s, the RAN will be capable of supporting its two allies in acute submarine operations while performing deployments made by American and British submarines.

In Washington, AUKUS might be regarded as cementing Canberra as its most reliable regional “middle power”, a vital ally within America’s grand strategy that mostly aligns with the White House and Downing Street views. In an international system with growing numbers of middle powers claiming neutrality or gravitating toward China, AUKUS is a symbol that Australia still looks for the United States and Britain to a lesser extent. Beyond that, considering the United States’ long-term strategy in the region, the rotational deployments to Stirling are often overlooked.

The “Submarine Rotational Force-West” (SRF-West) is a near-term endeavour resulting from AUKUS that will be put into action at least a decade before Australia gets its first nuclear-powered submarine. Aiming to achieve full force in 2031, the SRF-West will considerably increase the allied undersea capabilities. If Washington deploys its four submarines from homeports outside the region, it will double the number of such vessels operated by the UK, Australia, and the United States in the area (excluding American forces based in Hawaii). Thus, AUKUS represents the fulfilment of the US Indo-Pacific Command’s objective since the 2010s to double the number of submarines operating in the area. Perth, alongside Guam and Hawaii, will be one of the pillars of the American submarine force in the Indo-Pacific. Strategically, the agreement helps forward-basing allied assets in the region, easing the logistical pressure put on the United States to operate and, if necessary, to wage war.

It is a reminder for Britain that the country is already in a new post-Brexit phase, even though it remains a recurrent topic in British politics. Beyond an apparent victory for the overused label of “Global Britain”, the British participation in the AUKUS agreement has the potential to strengthen Britain’s relative position in the Indo-Pacific through formal basing of submarines and access to naval facilities and the elevation of the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) to a force capable of complementing activities of a stretched British submarine force. Not only Global Britain would have concrete results, but also the British “tilt” to the Indo-Pacific.

It is worth mentioning that Britain’s tilt to the Indo-Pacific had been ongoing since the mid-2010s, years before it became an official government policy and that AUKUS – at least from a British perspective – builds on previous defence agreements with Australia that allowed for the transfer of military technology between the two countries, mainly the 2013 Treaty for Defence and Security Cooperation.

In addition, for the British economy, particularly its defence industry, the AUKUS is a welcomed deal, even at the expense of partners in France. Demonstrating the quality of British submarines, the chosen future submarines for Australia are the SSN-AUKUS, initially British-designed but also incorporating American technology. Replacing the Astute-class of the Royal Navy and the Collins-class of the RAN, London and Canberra will operate similar vessels in the late 2030 and early 2040s. Britain has a central role beyond the hull design of SSN-AUKUS because strategic concerns led to Australia first approaching Britain for assistance in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines.

As the British position is one of close cooperation with the Americans since the 1958 US-UK Mutual Defence Agreement, Britain directly helped to negotiate the terms that resulted in the deal. Australia knew that its interests aligned with the British and that London had the influence to approach Washington cordially, which could result in the first share of nuclear propulsion in American history to a third party since 1958.

Although a country that has experienced a relative decline, the UK still gathers assets to avoid the role of a “second-rate European nation” with European-only interests. Much of the debate on stretching the country’s resources with the “Indo-Pacific tilt” – of which AUKUS is part – is the consequence of successive governments in London, influenced by the Treasury, presuming that the Defence of the Realm is obtainable on the cheap.

Depleting the budget of the British Armed Forces through short-sighted policies, with the 2010 Defence Review as one example, has left Britain with the necessity to spend more only to achieve the already cut capability levels seen in the early 2000s. As shown through AUKUS, the British Government can put some substance into Global Britain and the tilt to the Indo-Pacific. However, remains in London the lack of willingness to advance towards a long-term geostrategic approach that recognises the end of the post-Cold War “Peace Dividend”.

Rebuilding lost or reduced capabilities must occur domestically while strengthening trusted and reliable allies abroad. Britain is doing the latter through AUKUS but acts reluctantly in strengthening its own material capabilities. While Britain designs a new generation of submarines for the Royal Navy and the RAN, the debate about the fleet size of the British submarine emerged. Navy chiefs campaigning for an increase argue that seven attack submarines are below the requirements of the increasingly competitive and assertive international arena. The idea was – for the time being – rejected by Downing Street. In short, successive governments in London have the ambition to seek a role for Britain as one of the major powers internationally, which can be seen as a reasonable assumption for any country that is part of the top six largest economies in the world. However, going global demands a willingness to adequately support hard power, which is most respected by the main challengers to Britain’s position and security.

Beyond the specific and shared geostrategic benefits that its members might have when AUKUS reaches maturity in the 2030s and 2040s, the tripartite security initiative has attracted concerns and criticism. Above all, the topics raised since September 2021 concern nuclear proliferation. Through AUKUS, Australia will access the highly enriched uranium used on the Anglo-American SSN propulsion designs. Although the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty does not forbid non-nuclear-weapon states to produce highly enriched uranium for naval reactor fuel, the transfer and elevation of Australia as an operator of nuclear-powered submarines have been heavily criticised. Much of the criticism on the topic is due to the lack of international safeguards on nuclear materials used for naval military purposes. Australia will be exploring a loophole that allows nuclear material to be removed from the International Atomic Energy. Until the case of Australia, critics argue, the “loophole” within the Non-Proliferation Treaty was not a severe problem due to only Nuclear-Weapon-States (NWS) operating nuclear-powered submarines and exercising the right to remove from inspection nuclear material for military purposes.

Therefore, the argument goes, AUKUS established a precedent that other NWS might explore, transferring nuclear submarine technology and material to less-than-reliable countries. Consequently, through a political discourse citing the AUKUS precedent, others could facilitate the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Thus, the question is not only about Australia seeking the status of a Nuclear-Weapon-State but others using the loophole to have access to the material and technology.

Nevertheless, Australia is not the first NWS to seek a nuclear-powered submarine capability. For decades, Brazil has expressed varying degrees of interest in that possibility. Since 2008, the South American country has been developing its “Submarine Development Programme” (also known as “PROSUB”). Considerably less ambitious than AUKUS, PROSUB has a few characteristics in common with its Indo-Pacific or Anglospheric counterpart. Firstly, it involves the development of nuclear-powered submarines by a non-nuclear weapon state. Secondly, the programme involves a nuclear-armed state, in this case, France, assisting the country in the development process. It is worth noting that Brazil is not acquiring a French propulsion design but elaborating its own based on exchanges and experience acquired from French support.

Thirdly, Brazil and Australia will be exploiting the legal loophole of the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Despite that, PROSUB has slipped under the radar of most criticism. This is the case, in part, because Brazil has reassured the international community that the reactor will use low-enriched uranium at 7% concentration and the minimum to make a nuclear weapon is 20%, although the Brazilian Navy cites the possibility of the level reaching around 15%. Therefore, Australia’s position is not unique, and AUKUS might be seen as just a step further than PROSUB.

Criticism is countered by the AUKUS leaders, who point out that when Australia, the UK, and the United States announced the initiative in 2021, the three members committed to their respective non-proliferation obligations. An additional list of commitments was laid out by AUKUS that includes the Australian commitment that it does not – and will not – seek nuclear weapons.

In March 2023, the White House issued a statement reaffirming that (1) Australia will not enrich uranium or reprocess fuel spent as part of AUKUS; (2) Australia will not produce nuclear fuel for its submarine fleet; (3) the UK and the United States aim to provide Australia with nuclear material “in complete, welded power units” that will not require refuelling during their operational lifetime; (4) nuclear material that Australia receives cannot be employed in nuclear weapons without additional chemical processing, and the country does not have and will not seek to build up such processing infrastructure; and (5) the programme will occur in line with Australia’s Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement and Additional Protocol with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Washington also stated that all members maintained regular consultation with the IAEA throughout 2022, aiming to uphold the safeguards regime. Lastly, according to the United States briefing, “The Director General of the IAEA has reported to the IAEA Member States that he believes the AUKUS partners ‘are committed to ensuring the highest non-proliferation and safeguards standards are met,’ and noted his ‘satisfaction with the engagement and transparency shown by the three countries thus far.’”

Another criticism of the “quasi-alliance” is its apparent exclusivist nature. The UK, the United States, and Australia are unilaterally establishing a new vision for the Indo-Pacific. In other words, AUKUS might overshadow regional initiatives and establish a clear divide between the West and China for the decades to come. Concerning this topic, the American Government declared that the “door is open” to other partners, mentioning the desire for a future New Zealand membership. In the UK, a Parliamentary Committee argued for inviting Japan and Korea. Other possible members include Canada, which would further join the vision of AUKUS and the Five-Eyes as a unified “Anglosphere” stance in the region.

Within this context lies the critics derived from the AUKUS reverberations in Europe, mainly in France. Considering that France lost its €56 billion procurement for conventional submarines when Australia cancelled the deal and opted for a British design with American technology, the French Government considered the act “a stab in the back”. Paris recalled its ambassadors from Washington and Canberra while attempting to belittle London, stating that the ambassador in London was not recalled due to Britain’s small role in the affair, labelling the country as opportunistic and an accomplice of the other two. Despite that, cooperation with France proceeded through NATO and bilateral agreements. In June 2022, Australia agreed to pay €555 million to the French contractor as a settlement, paving the way for a normalised bilateral relationship.

In conclusion, the strategic driver of AUKUS is mainly the perceived need to reinforce a Western front against an increasingly revisionist China to secure its three members’ geopolitical interests. Although China remains Australia’s leading trading partner, it has become clear that it is willing to channel commercial dependence into political leverage. Within this context, it is possible to argue that China’s blunt outlining of its “14 Grievances” against Australia in 2020 was, from the point of view of Canberra, a glimpse of the behaviour that the Commonwealth member could expect in an Indo-Pacific under a Chinese sphere of influence. Thus, for Australia, AUKUS is the pathway to enhanced military capabilities while bringing the UK and the United States even closer to supporting Australian national security. It also tackles the recurring sense of isolation felt by successive Governments in Canberra, particularly in times of Great Power rivalry.

Concerning the United States, AUKUS is a tool to maintain an international order under American auspices. Countering China might also mean sustaining the status quo that has the United States on the top, followed by other G7 countries. Beyond that, AUKUS brings and possibly entangles two of Washington’s closest allies to the strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific, easing the pressure on American assets deployed to the region.

For the UK, the tripartite initiative puts some substance into Global Britain and the maintenance of an open and rules-based international order. Moreover, through AUKUS, Britain continues the pursuit of the objective formulated in the 2021 Integrated Review to become “the European partner with the broadest, most integrated presence in support of mutually beneficial trade, shared security and values”. Becoming the leading European power in the Indo-Pacific means supplanting France’s position, which might be considered the main European actor in that region since the British Handover of Hong Kong in 1997. Achieving that position demands the desire of the British Government to invest in Britain’s defence capabilities and security and economic ties with regional partners.

Anglo-Australian security and defence cooperation already occurred through the Five Eyes, the Five Power Defence Arrangements, and bilateral agreements, and the AUKUS crowns Australia as a central long-term part of the British tilt to the region. Lastly, Britain’s participation means that the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific are becoming strategically integrated within the considerations of British defence policy.

In other words, the regions East of Suez might no longer be detachable from the core interests of London in the Atlantic-Europe axis. Instead, despite the shortcomings of more than two decades of capability cuts, British policy is leaning towards binding the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific as one, just like the United States.

Even though AUKUS does not aim to function as a “NATO of the Indo-Pacific”, Australia, the UK, and the United States might already have in practice a “quasi-alliance” in the region.

There is no Article V of the Indo-Pacific. Still, the level of entanglement of British, American, and Australian interests coupled with bilateral arrangements between the three actors leads to a geostrategic scenario that AUKUS does not only represent facets of the American pivot, Global Britain, and Australian search for renewed security, but a joint front of three different kinds of powers that seek similar objectives, sharing the same view of what kind of world order must prevail in the coming decades.

However, AUKUS offers Britain and Australia the notion that it is not a collective security system, alluding to the fact that – just as in the case of the British position on the Vietnam War – the Anglosphere in the Indo-Pacific is not binding but a quasi-alliance that accommodates its members for a relatively united position in a region that witness increased Great Power competition.



J. Vitor Tossini
Vitor is a doctoral student of International Relations at the Sao Paulo State University. He also explores British imperial and military history, and its legacies to the modern world.

UK

Minister's ultimatum to Jersey's striking teachers

BBC
12th January 2024

BBCA letter asks individual teachers to accept or reject the pay deal - with consequences either way

Jersey ministers who failed to reach a deal with a union have written to individual teachers outlining an automatic pay rise and strike ban unless they formally reject the offer.

Jersey's government offered teachers an 8% pay rise plus a one-off payment of £1,000.

NASUWT accepted the offer while the NEU refused the deal.

Deputy Elaine Millar signed a letter that invites teachers to accept the offer regardless.

Teachers would be assumed to have automatically accepted the deal unless they email the government to opt-out, it said.

Those who did not respond via email by 1 February would also agree to a ban on industrial action over pay until 2027, the letter outlined.

It follows strike action that took place in Jersey over much of last year.


In the letter received by teachers, Ms Millar thanked them for their "continued hard work" and expressed hope "to find a way to move forwards".

She said the States Employment Board did not wish to "undermine" the collective bargaining process or disrespect either union or the "autonomy of any teacher" who was a member of both or neither.

The government does not hold information about whether teachers are union members, the letter said, so it was writing to all teachers to "ascertain who has accepted the offer" in order for the uplift to start at the end of February 2024.

It added: "If you wish to accept the offer, you do not need to take any action and the pay award will be made to you.

"Acceptance of the offer by any teacher confirms that an agreement has been reached, ending the dispute."
'Uplift removed'

Those accepting the deal could not "engage in any industrial action" relating to pay until 2027.

Meanwhile, those teachers refusing the offer were asked to email the government by midday on 1 February and would "remain on 2023 pay scales until further discussions with the NEU", while being able to pursue industrial action.


Those teachers who go on strike despite failing to reject the offer would have their "uplift removed", it said.

A failure to respond, meanwhile, would be "deemed to constitute an agreement in respect of the offer", it added.


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The biggest global election year in history will hit growth stocks and the world economy, JPMorgan says




Filip De Mott
Sat, January 13, 2024 at 2:30 PM MST·3 min read



JPMorgan said 2024 is the biggest global election year in history with some of the most populous countries holding votes.


Strategists warned that the results would eventually be negative for the global economy and growth stocks.


A victory by Trump could have broader macro implications via executive orders that dismantle many of Biden's policies.

JPMorgan said 2024 is the biggest global election year in history as some of the most populous countries hold votes, with major implications for the economy and stocks.

Election results may see four trends — polarization, populism, democratic deterioration, and geo-economic fragmentation — continue to be felt, strategists said in a note Wednesday.

"Many elections will likely be a close call, with some countries recognizing that populists do not deliver and others still in thralled with them, but overall, we think these four horsemen are unlikely to fade and thus think the 2024 elections bonanza will eventually turn out as negative for global growth, depressing Growth stocks vs Value," they wrote. "We do not think they will bring back the old days of zero or negative real yields given steadily rising deficits and debt loads."

Populist regimes typically promote massive policy changes, which tend to pressure up inflation in the short run, according to the note. They also mean more borrowing and restricted trade, a downside force on global growth.

Of all the elections, JPMorgan expects the US race to carry the most weight, with President Joe Biden likely facing off again against former President Donald Trump.

"We see the US elections as being more consequential and meriting hedging more so than any other election, as a Trump victory could have broader macro implications, including through a series of executive orders that would dismantle or reverse many of Biden's policies," the note said.

Among the anticipated Trump policies is the imposition of a universal 10% tariff, expected to ignite trade wars across the board. If introduced, this could push the dollar 4%-6% up in exchange markets. At risk of sliding would be the Chinese yuan, euro, and Mexican peso.

Uncertainty over the US and other global elections will also generate a higher VIX, made worse by a potential recession. In US election years, JPMorgan strategists found that S&P 500 volatility stands 2 points above non-election years.

"Hence, investors looking to position themselves for election uncertainty and the return of populism should position for higher risk premia and higher market volatility," the note said.

In addition to populism, JPMorgan said another key theme to watch this election year is the continued erosion of "democracy metrics," which have consequences for markets.

The bank cited surveys from Freedom House and other independent watchdogs that show a decline in democracy and global freedom has been a trend for 17 years.

"Weaker governance creates higher volatility and lower multiples, and we find that, after a democracy downgrade, equity returns have, on average, been 5% lower over a 10yr period than in countries that were upgraded," JPMorgan said.

Donald Trump has to pay The New York Times $400,000 in legal fees over their story about his wealth and taxes

BYMICHAEL R. SISAK AND THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
January 13, 2024 

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference, Thursday, Jan. 11, 2024, in New York.
AP PHOTO/MARY ALTAFFER

Former President Donald Trump was ordered Friday to pay nearly $400,000 in legal fees to The New York Times and three investigative reporters after he sued them unsuccessfully over a Pulitzer Prize-winning 2018 story about his family’s wealth and tax practices.

The newspaper and reporters Susanne Craig, David Barstow and Russell Buettner were dismissed from the lawsuit in May. Trump’s claim against his estranged niece, Mary Trump, that she breached a prior settlement agreement by giving tax records to the reporters is still pending.

New York Judge Robert Reed said that given the “complexity of the issues” in the case and other factors, it was reasonable that Donald Trump be forced to pay lawyers for the Times and the reporters a total of $392,638 in legal fees.

“Today’s decision shows that the state’s newly amended anti-SLAPP statute can be a powerful force for protecting press freedom,” Times spokesperson Danielle Rhoads Ha said, referring to a New York law that bars baseless lawsuits designed to silence critics. Such lawsuits are known as SLAPPs or strategic lawsuits against public participation.

“The court has sent a message to those who want to misuse the judicial system to try to silence journalists,” Rhoads Ha said.

In a separate ruling Friday, Reed denied a request by Mary Trump – now the sole defendant – that the case be put on hold while she appeals his June decision that allowed Donald Trump’s claim against her to proceed.

Mary Trump’s lawyers declined comment.

Donald Trump’s lawyer, Alina Habba, said they remain disappointed that the Times and its reporters were dropped from the case. She said they are pleased that the court has “once again affirmed the strength of our claims against Mary and is denying her attempt to avoid accountability.”

“We look forward to proceeding with our claims against her,” Habba said.

Donald Trump’s lawsuit, filed in 2021, accused the Times and its reporters of relentlessly seeking out Mary Trump as a source of information and convincing her to turn over confidential tax records. He claimed the reporters were aware her prior settlement agreement barred her from disclosing the documents, which she’d received in a dispute over family patriarch Fred Trump’s estate.

The Times’ reporting challenged Donald Trump’s claims of self-made wealth by documenting how his father, Fred Trump, had given him at least $413 million over the decades, including through tax avoidance schemes. Mary Trump identified herself in a book published in 2020 as the source of the documents.

The Times’ story said that Donald Trump and his father avoided gift and inheritance taxes by methods including setting up a sham corporation and undervaluing assets to tax authorities. The Times says its report was based on more than 100,000 pages of financial documents, including confidential tax returns for the father and his companies.


Donald Trump, who sought $100 million in damages, alleged Mary Trump, the Times and the reporters “were motivated by a personal vendetta” against him. He accused them of engaging “in an insidious plot to obtain confidential and highly sensitive records which they exploited for their own benefit.”

In dismissing the Times and its reporters from the lawsuit, Reed wrote that legal news gathering is “at the very core of protected First Amendment activity.”

Mary Trump, 58, is the daughter of Donald Trump’s brother, Fred Trump Jr., who died in 1981 at age 42. She is an outspoken critic of her uncle, whom she has regarded as “criminal, cruel and traitorous.”

In July, Mary Trump filed a counterclaim against Donald Trump under New York’s anti-SLAPP law, arguing that Donald Trump’s lawsuit was “purely retaliatory and lacking in merit” and intended to “chill her and others from criticizing him in the future.”

Hydrogen fuel cell technology shows promise for eliminating diesel engine boats


ByDr. Tim Sandle
January 12, 2024

Madrid wants to ramp up production of emissions-free fuel like green hydrogen - Copyright AFP Valentin BONTEMPS

The UK Government has recently funded research into a new energy technology for narrowboats. The HyTime project has completed real-world testing with lead partner Bramble Energy, providing a new fuel cell system together with the custom engine builder Barrus.

The new technology offers a solution to replace diesel engines in boats which could potentially save 12 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually per vessel. This fits in with UK renewable energy initiatives.

For the project, Bramble Energy has designed, developed and deployed a unique marinised fuel cell system for use within a narrowboat. This stands as a first of its kind application.

For the trial, the 57 foot long narrowboat was launched onto the water in Sheffield, Yorkshire, where it has successfully completed testing, emissions-free, using a custom marinised fuel cell system. The fuel cell system has the potential to provide the vessel with approximately 600 miles of range using the 14kg of hydrogen stored on-board, as well as additional power being supplied from solar panels on the boat’s roof to the 22kWh battery system.

The vessel was built from the ground up, has been under construction in Sheffield where Bramble engineers have created a completely new design of a hydrogen system to meet marine requirements.

The completed project demonstrates Bramble’s printed circuit board fuel cell (called the PCBFC™) technology in a real-world environment, serving as a showcase of hydrogen’s potential to decarbonise the marine sector.

The hydrogen-powered narrowboat will now begin a testing programme on UK inland waterways with data collected helping Bramble develop future marine fuel cells.

It is hoped the technology will provide a viable route for accessing the hydrogen economy as they can be manufactured in almost any size or arrangement at much greater speed and scale than traditional electrochemical stacks, at a much lower cost.

The global maritime sector contributes to 940 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year, equating to approximately 2.5 percent of global greenhouse gases. For the UK, the Clean Maritime Plan requires new vessels to be zero-emission capable from 2025. The project’s goal was to demonstrate how the shift to a hydrogen fuel source could help the transition thanks to providing a range extender to pure battery systems, but also to remove the reliance on a charging base.

Strange weather: Last year’s climate assessment makes for grim reading


By Dr. Tim Sandle
January 13, 2024

Powerful waves driven by Cyclone Freddy crashed into the shoreline near the village of Sainte-Anne, on the French overseas island of La Reunion

 - Copyright AFP/File Charism SAYAT

Record heat in 2023 together with worsened global droughts, floods and wildfires characterized a worsening climate situation. Just as concerning, 2024 looks like being the same or even hotter. This made 2023 the Earth’s hottest year on record, showing us, alarmingly, what a typical future year with 1.5 degrees warming may look like.

In addition, relative air humidity over the global land surface in 2023 was the second driest on record after 2021, continuing a trend towards drier and more extreme conditions. These patterns have occurred amongst a continued global reliance upon fossil fuels.

The bleak assessment relating to global heating and other forms of climate change comes from the Australian National University. Academics have analyzed considerable quantities of data, drawn from thousands of ground stations and satellites orbiting the Earth, to reveal that record levels of heat across the world profoundly impacted the global water cycle in 2023. In turn, this contributed to severe storms, floods, megadroughts and bushfires.

Globally, there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of rainfall events and river flooding. At the same time, in other regions, there are also more frequent and faster developing droughts, or so-termed ‘flash droughts’. These droughts cause crop failure and destructive wildfires in a matter of weeks or months.

The findings are outlined in a new report released this month by the Global Water Monitor Consortium and led by Australian National University researchers. The report underscores the consequences of persistent fossil fuel burning on natural disasters, water resources, biodiversity and food security.

Heat waves broke previous records in many countries, including Canada, Brazil, Spain and Thailand. A total of 77 countries experienced their highest average annual temperature in at least 45 years.

Furthermore, the lack of rainfall and high temperatures exacerbated multi-year droughts in South America, the Horn of Africa and around the Mediterranean.

The hot and dry conditions also inflicted extensive ecological damage on the world’s largest forests. Massive wildfires ravaged Canada during the northern summer, while the Amazon rainforest and rivers rapidly descended into severe drought in late 2023.

Other climatic disasters of 2023 were linked to unusually strong cyclones bringing extreme rainfall to New Zealand, Mozambique and Malawi, Myanmar, Greece, Libya and Australia. The longest-lived cyclone ever recorded battered southeastern Africa for weeks.

One of the main patterns identified relates to rising sea surface and air temperatures, caused by fossil fuel burning, and these have been intensifying the strength and rainfall intensity of monsoons, cyclones and other storm systems.

As to 2024 and beyond, the researchers are predicting warmer sea temperatures. This matches the trend of the last two decades, which have seen increased air temperatures and declining air humidity, causing increased heat stress and water requirements for people, crops and ecosystems, while intensifying droughts.

Survey: Factors in the workplace that increase staff turnover  

By  Dr. Tim Sandle

Digital Journal.
January 14, 2024

Employees of the magazine have agreed to a pay cut to finance a special Ukraine team made up of Ukrainian journalists in Germany and in the Ukraine reporting about the conflict - Copyright AFP

There are many factors to consider when it comes to staff turnover – but while some may be inevitable, such as retirement, a change in career, or even moving away, others can be controlled. This time of year leads many employers to become concerned about their workers quitting and finding a new job.

Employee wellbeing firm Loopin have highlighted six of the major factors in the workplace that could lead to a high staff turnover, from lack of opportunities and purpose, to overworked employees, all of which contribute to huge employee turnover costs.  They have shared these trends with Digital Journal.

Little opportunity for growth  

Not providing any opportunities for employees to progress can cause them to feel stuck in their roles and feel as though their hard work and commitment aren’t recognised. A different company that can offer a role of higher authority will eventually become more appealing after plenty of time in the same role – not only for income but to further demonstrate their skills.  

Offering promotions for existing employees rather than hiring externally is one way to provide opportunities for growth. Communication is key in this instance to ensure that staff have clarity on how they need to perform in order for this to be possible, for example, a checklist of targets over a realistic time frame – this way, both you and the employees can assess how close they are to the next step. Alternatively, providing relevant training courses for staff allows them to educate themselves and stay up to date with the sector, thus being an excellent opportunity for growth.  

Lack of feedback  

Offering feedback to employees is a small implementation that can go far – not only does it show recognition, but it’s also a huge factor that can help them succeed.  Regular 1-1s are an excellent opportunity to provide feedback, as it gives employees the chance to address any areas they are particularly struggling in. 

As an employer, the purpose is not to provide top-down performance feedback, assess the company’s performance, or evaluate the status of certain projects. Instead, the employee needs to take centre stage. You should ask questions to discover more about their goals and ambitions, as well as any concerns or pain points.

Micromanagement  

Micromanagement can have huge implications that can drive employees away. Not only does it limit creativity, but it also implies that you don’t trust employees to make the right decisions on their own. Micromanagement can also lead to burnout, which not only affects productivity and company success, but the employee will likely consider joining a company that offers a more supportive approach to management.

It is wise to avoid micromanagement. Although it can be daunting to let go of projects, delegating to your team members will allow employees to feel valued, trusted and therefore, confident to complete the task. Seeing your employees complete these tasks will help you to see their skills first-hand and allow for timely feedback. Managing expectations instead of tasks is essential to zone out of the micromanagement phase and offer more freedom to employees. Therefore, ensure that before the task is given to a team member, you have made clear your thoughts and goals on the task at hand. This enhances communication between yourself and the employee and allows them to have clear structure before you trust them with the task.

Lack of flexible working  

Flexible working options offer a practical solution for employees. It can help those using unreliable public transport, those who need to take their children to school, or those with pets, to name a few. Implementing flexible working options where employees can be more autonomous and set their own schedules offers a healthier work-life balance; without it, employees may turn to a different company that does provide this benefit.  

To incorporate flexible working into the organisation, you can start by selecting the core working hours in which every employee must be present – but outside of this, employees can decide when they start and finish. On top of this, switching to a hybrid workplace where employees split their time between the workplace and working remotely can increase productivity and allows them to use their time more efficiently – not to mention, it’s an attractive factor to job-seekers.  

Overworking employees  

Of course, there may be times when employees will have additional responsibilities. Particularly whilst many companies are making significant redundancies, resulting in employees having a bigger workload. However, managers must monitor the workload of all employees and find ways to protect them from burnout and stress caused by unavoidable workloads. Without doing so, staff are more likely to search for another role that offers a better work-life balance. On the other hand, employees must have enough work and understand their contribution to the make-up of the organisation’s overall mission, vision, and success. 

This is another area where regular 1-1s are particularly useful. You can use this time to ask questions to your employee about how they are finding the workload and alter it based on their answers. Additionally, a preventative employee wellbeing strategy is key to understand how employees are feeling. It’s crucial to offer early support to employees who are feeling stressed, burnt out, or disengaged, which could be related to their workload.  

Feeling undervalued and unappreciated

Free lunches and table football are great, but they barely scratch the surface when it comes to creating a culture where employees feel appreciated, cared for, and understood. If employees feel their work is not valued and their contributions go unnoticed, they are likely to lack motivation and may consider leaving their current role for a job that is more rewarding and enjoyable. 

A spokesperson from Loopin explains to Digital Journal: “It’s vital that employers consider the reasons for high employee turnover, particularly if they are due to factors that can be prevented in the future. This requires spotting signs at the earliest opportunity and having a true understanding of employee concerns. High staff turnover not only affects the efficiency of a business, but also comes at a huge cost to businesses too. It’s essential to understand the reasons why past employees have left to prepare for the foreseeable and secure future business success.”   

Adecco chief says AI will create new jobs

AFP
January 13, 2024

Humanoid AI robot Ameca, by Engineered Arts, attended the UN artificial intelligence summit in Geneva. — AFP Emma McIntyre

Nathalie OLOF-ORS

Artificial intelligence raises serious concerns for jobs but it will also create new positions, the head of Adecco, the world’s biggest temporary staffing agency, told AFP.

From meteorologists to lawyers and screenwriters, generative AI capable of creating content — such as the chatbot ChatGPT — could change the contours of many professions.

But it will also create new positions, according to Denis Machuel, the chief executive of Zurich-based Adecco.

– How will AI disrupt the world of work? –

Machuel: “It’s probably the largest disruption and revolution that we’ve seen in decades. It’s going to be massive. And let’s be clear, no one really knows or can really anticipate with a precise view what’s going to happen in the next five years.

“All this productivity enhancement helps people do more but also destroys some of the jobs people are doing. There is definitely an element of jobs being created and jobs that are being destroyed. We’ve seen that with the internet, with digitalisation.

“What we’ve seen in the past tells us that there is more or less a balance between the two.

“Technology brings a lot of better understanding of interaction between people and markets but it also brings complexity. And that complexity requires more people to deal with it.

“GenAI will bring productivity on one side but it will also bring more proof-points, more data, more ways of looking at relationships, products and services. And for all these, we need people.”

– Are some jobs more at risk than others? –

Machuel: “It’s probably a bit too early to precisely describe jobs that are fundamentally at risk. Because we have to look at the tasks behind them.

“If you only compute information, gather information and synthesise it, then your job is at risk, be it a job in finance, in legal, in business, because… it is what GenAI does.

“Probably white-collar workers will be more impacted than blue-collar workers — at least in the short term.

“Within the white collar space, the things that are linked to massive information management will be more disrupted than the skills that are linked to relationship building, to strategic thinking or problem-solving.

“However, we know that there are limits.

“Take the example of a lawyer or of a paralegal: computing an immense number of legal decisions can be done by GenAI.

“However, the deep and subtle understanding of a complex legal situation and problem-solving skills that are needed to put things together is still very human-related.

“Usually, the sort of mundane tasks that can be automated are not the most exciting for people to do. So if you can automate that, it gives you more time to concentrate on the nicer things.”

– How is AI used at Adecco? –

“We’ve signed a partnership with Microsoft to create a career platform that will advise companies and workers on their path, supporting their reflection on the type of skills and jobs they could go for.

“Opening horizons on things people didn’t necessarily imagine but could be achievable for them.

“There are quite a few workers whose skills are transferable.

“The good news about GenAI is that there is a positive explosion of possibilities of upskilling and re-skilling through these tools.

“We’ve created a curriculum vitae maker with an AI-powered tool that helps people generate their own CV.

“On the daily tasks of our recruiters, I was mentioning this chatbot that interacts with thousands of candidates very quickly.

“It gives the possibility for our recruiters to spend more time in the human relationship, and not in a database search.

“That means a recruiter can spend more time with people than doing the mundane tasks.”

IMF chief says AI holds risks, ‘tremendous opportunity’ for global economy


AFP
January 14, 2024

International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva tells AFP in an interview that artificial intelligence poses job security risks but potentially major opportunities to boost productivity around the world - 

Daniel AVIS

Artificial intelligence poses risks to job security around the world but also offers a “tremendous opportunity” to boost flagging productivity levels and fuel global growth, the IMF chief told AFP.

AI will affect 60 percent of jobs in advanced economies, the International Monetary Fund’s managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, said in an interview in Washington, shortly before departing for the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

With AI expected to have less effect in developing countries, around “40 percent of jobs globally are likely to be impacted,” she said, citing a new IMF report.

“And the more you have higher skilled jobs, the higher the impact,” she added.

However, the IMF report published Sunday evening notes that only half of the jobs impacted by AI will be negatively affected; the rest may actually benefit from enhanced productivity gains due to AI.

“Your job may disappear altogether -– not good –- or artificial intelligence may enhance your job, so you actually will be more productive and your income level may go up,” Georgieva said.



– Uneven effects –



The IMF report predicted that, while labor markets in emerging markets and developing economies will see a smaller initial impact from AI, they are also less likely to benefit from the enhanced productivity that will arise through its integration in the workplace.

“We must focus on helping low income countries in particular to move faster to be able to catch the opportunities that artificial intelligence will present,” Georgieva told AFP.

“So artificial intelligence, yes, a little scary. But it is also a tremendous opportunity for everyone,” she said.

The IMF is due to publish updated economic forecasts later this month which will show the global economy is broadly on track to meet its previous forecasts, she said.

It is “poised for a soft landing,” she said, adding that “monetary policy is doing a good job, inflation is going down, but the job is not quite done.”

“So we are in this trickiest place of not easing too fast or too slow,” she said.

The global economy could use an AI-related productivity boost, as the IMF predicts it will continue growing at historically muted levels over the medium term.

“God, how much we need it,” Georgieva said. “Unless we figure out a way to unlock productivity, we as the world are not for a great story.”



– ‘Tough’ year ahead –



Georgieva said 2024 is likely to be “a very tough year” for fiscal policy worldwide, as countries look to tackle debt burdens accumulated during the Covid-19 pandemic, and rebuild depleted buffers.

Billions of people are also due to go to the polls this year, putting additional pressure on governments to either raise spending or cut taxes to win popular support.

“About 80 countries are going to have elections, and we know what happens with pressure on spending during election cycles,” she added.

The concern at the IMF, Georgieva said, is that governments around the world spend big this year and undermine the hard-won progress they have made in the fight against high inflation.

“If monetary policy tightens and fiscal policy expands, going against the objective of bringing inflation down, we might be for a longer ride,” she added.



– Concentrating on the job –



Georgieva, whose five-year term at the IMF’s helm is set to end this year, refused to be drawn on whether she intends to run for a second stint leading the international financial institution.

“I have a job to do right now and my concentration is on doing that job,” she said.

“It has been a tremendous privilege to be the head of the IMF during a very turbulent time, and I can tell you I’m quite proud of how the institution coped,” she continued.

“But let me do what is in front of me right now.”