AMS Science Preview: The “Black Swan” heatwave; volcanic chillers; tornadogenesis

Early online research from journals of the American Meteorological Society

Peer-Reviewed Publication

AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access–they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form.

Below is a selection of articles published early online recently. To view full article text, members of the media can contact kpflaumer@ametsoc.org for press login credentials.

---

Searching for the Most Extreme Temperature Events in Recent History
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Ranking the world’s most extreme recent heat/cold events. The authors developed a novel method to identify and rank abnormally extreme (i.e., locally unusual) heat waves and cold spells. Scanning global data from 2003 to 2022, they found the three most extreme heatwaves occurred in Fujian, Hunan, and Jiangxi, China (2003); Alberta, Canada (2021); and Chongqing and Sichuan, China (2022). The most extreme cold spells occurred in south Québec, Canada (2014); western South Africa (2014); and Nord-du Québec, Canada (2015).

The Pacific Northwest Heat Wave of 25-30 June 2021: Synoptic/Mesoscale Conditions and Climate Perspective
Weather and Forecasting

2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave was a chaotic “Black Swan,” global warming played only a minor role. A heatwave over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada on 25-30 June 2021 broke previous temperature records by a large margin and led to hundreds of deaths. While anthropogenic warming may have contributed up to 1°C to this heatwave, it was largely due to other factors including a record-breaking high-pressure ridge in the troposphere over British Columbia. Yearly high temperatures in the region are only increasing at the baseline rate of global warming; such all-time record-breaking temperature events have not become more frequent.

“It appears that the extreme Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021 was a Black Swan event … global warming may have made a small contribution, but an extreme heatwave, driven by natural variability, would have occurred in any case.”
—Clifford Mass et al. (paper authors)

A New Pathway for Tornadogenesis Exposed by Numerical Simulations of Supercells in Turbulent Environments
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Simulations reveal previously unknown path for tornado formation. Computer simulations have been vital to understanding tornadogenesis, but until now, those models have not been sensitive enough, nor the data fine enough, to recreate turbulence at the boundary layer (near Earth's surface) as it interacts with a supercell storm. Simulations have therefore been based on the assumption of non-turbulent flow at this level. A new study using a model that incorporates boundary-layer turbulence has identified streaks of vertical spin that serve as a new way that a tornado-like vortex can form—which, if it translates to real life, could provide a new, alternative explanation for how tornadoes form from supercell storms.

Late-Winter and Springtime Temperature Variations throughout New Jersey in a Warming Climate
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Shifting spring temperatures could harm New Jersey farmers, ecosystems. Many sites in New Jersey, especially the agriculturally intensive south and coastal plain, have experienced an increase since 1950 in spring daytime temperature variation—specifically the number of times that the temperature warms above 60°F (encouraging plant growth), then plunges below freezing again. At three-quarters of measured sites, spring variation in maximum daily temperature has increased since the 1950s.

Irrigated Agriculture Significantly Modifies Seasonal Boundary Layer Atmosphere and Lower Tropospheric Convective Environment
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Turning Great Plains grasslands into irrigated agriculture has noticeable effects on weather and climate. Data from the Great Plains Irrigation Experiment (GRAINEX) in Nebraska demonstrate that compared with nearby grassland, large areas of irrigation significantly alter near-surface atmospheric characteristics, including cooling the local air, and create favorable conditions for clouds and convection to develop during the growing season.

Severe Global Cooling after Volcanic Super-eruptions? The Answer Hinges on Unknown Aerosol Size
Journal of Climate

Volcanic super-eruptions may not be global freezers after all. It’s theorized that volcanic super-eruptions could trigger massive global cooling events—the eruption of the volcano Toba 74,000 years ago, for example, purportedly threatened human survival—yet the evidence is sketchy. A new study finds that the particle size of emitted sulfate aerosols plays a key role in how much global cooling (or even global warming) an eruption causes, and that even super-eruptions may be incapable of cooling the globe by more than 1.5°C.

The Circum-global Transport of Massive African Dust and its Impacts on the Regional Circulation in Remote Atmosphere
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

2020 Saharan dust traveled all around the globe, altered climates far away. This paper demonstrates that a June 2020 North African dust event traveled worldwide and decreased rain over northeastern India and central North America, showing that such events can have a broad impact on the global atmosphere. Attempts to model future climate change should also include the impact of African dust.

The Respective Roles of Ocean Heat Transport and Surface Heat Fluxes in Driving Arctic Ocean Warming and Sea-Ice Decline
Journal of Climate

Influx of warm water will become the biggest driver of Arctic sea ice loss. During the 20th and early 21st centuries, the loss of Arctic Ocean sea ice has been primarily driven by atmospheric heat; however, repeated model simulations suggest that over time, the influx of warm water (especially through the Barents Sea Opening) will play a larger role in warming the Arctic Ocean and melting ice.

Atmospheric Rivers Are Responsible for Cyclicity in Sierra Nevada Precipitation
Journal of Climate

Sierra Nevada precipitation proves unpredictable. An important component of California’s water resources, precipitation in the Sierra Nevada mountains appears to show wet and dry cycles over years and decades. The authors attribute these apparent cycles to variations in the number of “atmospheric river” storms each year. However, they could not find any larger scale ocean-atmosphere patterns that would drive cyclical variation in atmospheric rivers, suggesting that observed cycles may not be useful for predicting future precipitation.

Drivers of Widespread Floods in Indian River Basins
Journal of Hydrometeorology

India’s Narmada and Mahanadi rivers are most prone to widespread flooding. A study of widespread flooding in Indian river basins found that basins in South India/peninsular India tend to be the most vulnerable, especially during the summer monsoon, when India receives 80% of its rainfall. In a given year, the Narmada River basin had a 59% chance of experiencing widespread floods, and the Mahanadi River a 50% chance; both are likely to have uniformly high rainfall and soil moisture during the summer, a key factor that makes flooding more likely.

Why Livelihoods Matter in The Gendering of Household Water Insecurity
Weather, Climate, and Society

Water awareness isn’t just about gender. Research has suggested women are more aware of/vulnerable to household water insecurity, but the divide isn’t so simple for households in rural Burkina Faso. In households focused on farming crops, this study found that women perceive more water insecurity; however, in households focused on livestock husbandry, men (usually responsible for securing water for animals) perceived greater water insecurity.

---

You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.

About the American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals—in print and online; sponsors more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.

 

Targeted scientific research projects to demonstrate effectiveness of ‘food is medicine’ in health care

Grant and Award Announcement

AMERICAN HEART ASSOCIATION

DALLAS, Jan. 24, 2024 — In an effort to identify effective food is medicine approaches for incorporating healthy food into health care delivery, the American Heart Association, the world’s leading voluntary organization focused on heart and brain health research, now celebrating 100 years of lifesaving work, today announced grants totaling $7.8 million to 19 research projects nationwide as part of its Health Care by Food™ initiative.

The research projects focus on areas including food resource coaching for patients of a safety-net clinic, delivering food is medicine interventions in underserved communities, the impact of a produce delivery program on patients with heart failure and implementing food prescription programs in older adults. Overall, the projects will examine the efficacy of strategic approaches for providing healthy food as part of patient care to help treat, manage and prevent chronic health conditions in ways that alleviate health inequities.

With anchor support from The Rockefeller Foundation and contributions from inaugural collaborator Kroger, with additional support from Instacart, Kaiser Permanente and Walmart Foundation, the Association’s Health Care by Food™ initiative is engaging in scientific research and public policy advocacy to promote the adoption of interventions that reduce chronic health conditions and curb health care costs. The initiative was first announced at the September 2022 White House Conference on Hunger, Nutrition and Health by the Association and The Rockefeller Foundation.

“With the involvement of stakeholders across the public health ecosystem, we aim to mobilize $250 million toward building a future in which people and communities nationwide have equitable access to healthy food to treat and prevent chronic health conditions,” said Nancy Brown, chief executive officer of the American Heart Association. “Our coordinated research strategy will identify the most effective ways for food to address diet-related conditions, with the goal of making food is medicine interventions a regular and reimbursable component of health care.”

“When people cannot afford or access nutritious foods, they are at greater risk for cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and other chronic diseases that contribute to higher health care costs,” said Dr. Rajiv J. Shah, President of The Rockefeller Foundation. “These research trials are an essential step in our efforts to ensure everyone’s health insurance covers effective food is medicine approaches—and can help them have the opportunity to live healthier, better lives.”

An estimated 90% of the $4.3 trillion annual cost of health care in the United States is spent on medical care for chronic health conditions, many of them diet-related, including cardiovascular disease, Type 2 diabetes and obesity. The Health Care by Food™ initiative will address barriers to the widespread adoption of healthy food as a treatment for chronic disease and the health inequities that result.

Food is medicine may be defined as providing healthy food resources to treat, manage and prevent specific chronic conditions in coordination with the health care sector. Common food is medicine programs include medically tailored meals, which are often delivered to patients with diet-related health conditions or among those at high risk; produce prescription programs that integrate healthy food into a patient’s health care plan, enabling patients to better follow their health care team’s dietary advice; and medically tailored groceries, which may include a selection of grocery items prescribed by a registered dietitian or nutritionist for patients with diet-related acute and chronic health conditions who can pick up and prepare food at home.

The initiative’s research roadmap is outlined in the 2023 American Heart Association Presidential Advisory on Food Is Medicine, which calls for addressing gaps in the study of current food is medicine interventions resulting from factors including small sample sizes, non-randomized comparisons and broad differences in data collection and measurement. The advisory writing group was chaired by Kevin Volpp, MD, PhD, the research lead for the Health Care by FoodTM initiative, the Mark V Pauly Professor at the Perelman School of Medicine and the Wharton School and Director of the Penn Center for Health Incentives and Behavioral Economics. The advisory proposes a coordinated research approach to examine the cost effectiveness of nutrition-based interventions in treating and preventing disease.

The research efforts announced today are the first to be funded under the Health Care by Food™ initiative. They are led by experts in the food and nutrition, behavioral science, epidemiology and cardiovascular research fields. The projects focus on rigorous pilot testing of ways to equitably increase enrollment and engagement in food is medicine interventions. The projects will test ways to accomplish significant short-term changes in healthy eating behavior to strengthen the foundation for subsequent studies that will assess longer-term behavior change.

The projects receiving awards were chosen because of the creativity of their ideas and their commitment to rigorous evaluations of food Is medicine interventions for people with, or at elevated risk for, chronic conditions. The projects are intended to ensure food is medicine programs serve populations in need, and to learn from their lived experience in assessing how to increase healthy eating behavior. The ultimate aim is to improve health in cost-effective ways through food is medicine interventions to support coverage of effective programs for the millions of people in America living with or at high risk for chronic health conditions. 

“Research studies increasingly show that healthy food is critical to the effective treatment and prevention of chronic health conditions,” said Victor J. Dzau, M.D., president of the National Academy of Medicine. “This initiative is vital to ensure we discover real-world evidence of the most impactful ways to incorporate healthy food into health care and benefit communities that face the biggest challenges accessing the food they need to get and stay healthy.”

The Association receives funding primarily from individuals; foundations and corporations (including pharmaceutical, device manufacturers and other companies) also make donations and fund specific Association programs and events. The Association has strict policies to prevent these relationships from influencing the science content. Revenues from pharmaceutical and biotech companies, device manufacturers and health insurance providers and the Association’s overall financial information are available here.

Additional Resources

• Addendum to Research Awards (PDF)
• American Heart Association Health Care by Food™ initiative website
• American Heart Association Statements and Presidential Advisory: ​
  • American Heart Association Presidential Advisory on Food Is Medicine (Sept. 2023)
  • American Heart Association’s 2024 Impact Goal: Every Person Deserves the Opportunity for a Full, Healthy Life (Nov. 2021)
  • American Heart Association Scientific Statement: Dietary Guidance to Improve Cardiovascular Heath (Nov. 2021)
• Follow AHA news on X (formerly known as Twitter) @HeartNews

###

 MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX

Off-road autonomy: U-M's Automotive Research Center funded with $100 million through 2028

As automakers explore self-driving cars, the Army-funded center will figure out how to take the tech off-road through computer modeling and simulation

Grant and Award Announcement

UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

 

 

Images  

The U.S. Army has extended its long-running relationship with the University of Michigan's Automotive Research Center, reaching a new five-year, agreement of up to $100 million to boost work on autonomous vehicle technologies.

 

This potentially doubles the federal government's financial investment with ARC since the last agreement, reached in 2019. Following its 1994 launch, the ARC has served as a source of technology and first-in-class modeling and simulation for the Army's fleet of vehicles—the largest such fleet in the world. 

 

"We are driving the development of modern mobility systems with our advanced modeling and simulation methods, such as high-fidelity synthetic environments, virtual vehicle prototypes and virtual reality tools for human-autonomy teaming," said ARC director Bogdan Epureanu, the Roger L. McCarthy Professor of Mechanical Engineering and professor of electrical engineering and computer science.

 

"The cost and time needed to collect data through physical experimentation is prohibitive, and the amount of data needed to enable autonomous operation in off-road, military, emergency or disaster relief scenarios is thousands of times larger than that needed for operation in cities. Cutting-edge modeling and simulation approaches such as the ones developed in the ARC provide a critical solution to this enormous challenge."

 

The 14-member collection of universities and institutes, led by U-M, features a total of 84 faculty members, 34 industry partners and four government agencies. It is an ecosystem of research and innovation devoted to transforming ground system technologies. 

 

"The University of Michigan's Automotive Research Center provides invaluable research and partnership to the U.S. Army that has helped propel the development of next-generation ground vehicle systems and other technologies vital to our men and women in uniform," said U.S. Sen. Gary Peters. "As a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, I have repeatedly fought to ensure the ARC receives the support and resources it needs to continue this important work, and I welcome this news that it will remain an essential partner to the U.S. Army for years to come."

 

In the earliest years of the ARC's partnership, the bulk of its research focused on energy and powertrain issues. That work led to advances such as accurate modeling of combat personnel and their gear to assist with vehicle design, engine designs and performance simulations, blast modeling and simulation techniques, as well as a better understanding of lithium ion battery performance and design. 

 

Some of the results cross over from military to civilian applications, such as digital engineering for reliability-based optimization of vehicle safety. Ramdo Solutions offers vehicle design tools based on technology developed at ARC.

 

In recent years, ARC's focus has shifted toward autonomous technologies that have become increasingly important to the military and beyond.

 

"The ARC is the Army's Center of Excellence in Modeling and Simulation," said David Gorsich, Army chief scientist for ground vehicles. "The research it conducts is crucial to developing the next generation of digital engineering tools to be used by government and industry.   

 

"Using the latest digital engineering tools allows the Army community to design and develop advanced vehicle systems quickly and efficiently, bringing modern capabilities to our soldiers. These modern ground vehicles are more complex than ever before, requiring modern analysis and design tools. They are fuel-efficient, survivable, reliable, semi-autonomous and software-intensive systems. These characteristics reduce our logistical burden while increasing operational effectiveness."

 

The ARC brings together researchers working in engineering, machine learning, human factors and social behavior. And it fits within U-M's broader mission of exploring the future of mobility—from autonomous and connected vehicle technology to battery research for electric vehicles.

 

Participating institutions include: the University of Iowa; Wayne State University; Clemson University; Oakland University; Virginia Tech; Michigan Technological University; Mississippi State University; the University of Alabama at Birmingham; the University of California, Irvine; George Mason University; Central Michigan University; Michigan State University and Worcester Polytechnic Institute.

 

Disinformation can reinforce polarization in society

The polarizing effects of disinformation endure even when faced with a powerful external shock

Peer-Reviewed Publication

AALTO UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: 

RESEARCHERS FROM AALTO UNIVERSITY AND THE UNIVERSITY OF HELSINKI STUDIED HOW REAL-WORLD SHOCKS AFFECT ONLINE DISCUSSIONS, AND FOUND THAT DISINFORMATION REINFORCES POLARIZATION.

view more 

CREDIT: MATTI AHLGREN/AALTO UNIVERSITY

With over four billion people eligible to vote in elections, 2024 is the largest election year ever. At the same time, disinformation and polarization on social media pose unprecedented challenges to the democratic process. New research from Aalto University and the University of Helsinki investigated how real-world shocks affect online discussions, using the Ukraine war and Finland’s NATO accession to understand how disinformation reinforces polarization.

‘The potential for democratic political participation in the world is greater than ever,’ says Tuomas Ylä-Anttila, associate professor of political science at the University of Helsinki. ‘At the same time, the deliberate use of disinformation by those who want to disturb democratic processes and generate polarization poses a threat to democracy and societal stability. This threat is now recognized widely, not just by political scientists but also organizations like the World Economic Forum.’

The research was a case study of how Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine affected discussions on NATO in the Finnish Twitter space immediately afterward. Finnish public opinion had long been split about joining NATO, with only around 20-30 percent in favour of joining the alliance. The Russian invasion led to a rapid convergence in favour of joining, which eventually led to Finland applying for membership. NATO and Russia are major themes in the campaigns for the Finnish presidential election, which will be held later this month.

The Russian invasion quickly depolarized NATO discussions in Finland but was unable to break a social bubble built on disinformation and conspiracy theories. These findings hold lessons for how disinformation will affect political campaigns elsewhere in today’s rapidly changing world.

‘By analysing retweeting patterns, we found three separate user groups before the invasion: a pro-NATO group, a left-wing anti-NATO group, and a conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group,’ says Yan Xia, a doctoral researcher at Aalto and lead author of the study. ‘After the invasion, the left-wing anti-NATO group members broke out of their retweeting bubble and connected with the pro-NATO group despite their difference in partisanship, while the conspiracy-charged anti-NATO group mostly remained a separate cluster.’

The research revealed that the left-wing anti-NATO group and the pro-NATO group were bridged by a shared condemnation of Russia’s actions and shared democratic norms. The other anti-NATO group, mainly built around conspiracy theories and disinformation, consistently demonstrated a clear anti-NATO attitude.

Disinformation persists even under threat

‘An external threat can bridge partisan divides, but bubbles upheld by conspiracy theories and disinformation may persist even under dramatic external threats,’ says Ylä-Anttila. ‘The continuity of these bubbles is likely explained by the notion that people within disinformation bubbles have limited communication with others outside their bubble, which tends to reinforce their prior beliefs.’

According to Ylä-Anttila, this effect is not limited to Finnish NATO discussions.

‘People who have strong, non-mainstream opinions are often more likely to hold on to their beliefs. They’re more prone to confirmation bias, meaning that they’re more likely to disregard information that is contrary to their own beliefs,’ says Ylä-Anttila.

‘For democratic decision-making, it’s essential to note that these disinformation bubbles are a part of our political reality and various actors that benefit from them – such as the Kremlin propaganda machine – will most likely try to exploit them.’

How did the researchers measure users’ opinions of NATO and social bubbles?

The research team consisted of network scientists from Aalto University and political scientists from the University of Helsinki. While network analysis can reveal the structure of user interactions and how it changes over time, analysing the content uncovers how the discussion climate evolves and what arguments connect or distinguish opposing sides. Combining research methods and expertise from computer science and social science offers a more holistic view of the discussions and dynamics on social media.

‘Network science methods enable us to measure structural polarization in these discussions and automate the search for different bubbles and other structures,’ says Mikko Kivelä, assistant professor at Aalto University. ‘In comparison to surveys, our methods are especially interesting because we can follow all of these discussions accurately after they have happened. In this research project, we were able to study and compare the discussions right before and right after the Russian invasion. We’re able to directly follow public discourse and the political elites that engage in it online.’

The research article was published in the European Physical Journal Data Science.

 

Research article:

Xia, Y., Gronow, A., Malkamäki, A. et al. The Russian invasion of Ukraine selectively depolarized the Finnish NATO discussion on Twitter. EPJ Data Sci. 13, 1 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjds/s13688-023-00441-2

 

---

JOURNAL

EPJ Data Science

DOI

10.1140/epjds/s13688-023-00441-2 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Content analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

The Russian invasion of Ukraine selectively depolarized the Finnish NATO discussion on Twitter

 

Misinformation and irresponsible AI - experts forecast how technology may shape our near future

From misinformation and invisible cyber attacks, to irresponsible AI that could cause events involving multiple deaths, expert futurists have forecast how rapid technology changes may shape our world by 2040.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

LANCASTER UNIVERSITY

From misinformation and invisible cyber attacks, to irresponsible AI that could cause events involving multiple deaths, expert futurists have forecast how rapid technology changes may shape our world by 2040.

 

As the pace of computer technology advances surges ahead, and systems become increasingly interlinked, it is vital to know how these fast technology advances could impact the world in order to take steps to prevent the worst outcomes.

 

Using a Delphi study, a well known technique for forecasting, a team of cyber security researchers led by academics from Lancaster University interviewed 12 experts in the future of technologies.

 

The experts, ranged from chief technology officers in businesses, consultant futurists and a technology journalist to academic researchers. They were asked how particular technologies may develop and change our world over the next 15 years by 2040, what risks they might pose, and how to address the challenges that may arise.

 

Most of the experts forecasted exponential growth in Artificial Intelligence (AI) over the next 15 years, and many also expressed concern that corners could be cut in the development of safe AI. They felt that this corner cutting could be driven by nation states seeking competitive advantage. Several of the experts even considered it possible that poorly implemented AI could lead to incidents involving many deaths, although other experts disagreed with this view.

 

Dr Charles Weir, Lecturer at Lancaster University’s School of Computing and Communications and lead researcher of the study, said: “Technology advances have brought, and will continue to bring, great benefits. We also know there are risks around some of these technologies, including AI, and where their development may go—everyone’s been discussing them—but the possible magnitude of some of the risks forecast by some of the experts was staggering.

 

“But by forecasting what potential risks lie just beyond the horizon we can take steps to avoid major problems.”

 

Another significant concern held by most of the experts involved in the study was that technology advances will make it easier for misinformation to spread. This has the potential to make it harder for people to tell the difference between truth and fiction - with ramifications for democracies.

 

Dr Weir said: “We are already seeing misinformation on social media networks, and used by some nation states. The experts are forecasting that advances in technologies will make it much easier for people and bad actors to continue spreading misleading material by 2040.”

 

Other technologies were forecast to not have as big as impact by 2040, including quantum computing which experts see as having impacts over a much longer timeframe, and Blockchain which was dismissed by most of the experts as being a source of major change.

 

The experts forecast that:

·       By 2040, competition between nation states and big tech companies will lead to corners being cut in the development of safe AI

·       Quantum computing will have limited impact by 2040

·       By 2040 there will be ownership of public web assets. These will be identified and traded through digital tokens

·       By 2040 it will be harder to distinguish truth from fiction because widely accessible AI can massively generate doubtful content

·       By 2040 there will be less ability to distinguish accidents from criminal incidents due to the decentralised nature and complexity of systems

 

 

The forecasters also offered some suggested solutions to help mitigate against some of the concerns raised. Their suggestions included governments introducing AI purchasing safety principles, new laws to regulate AI safety. In addition, universities could be vital by introducing courses combining technical skills and legislation.

 

These forecasts will help policy makers and technology professionals make strategic decisions around developing and deploying novel computing technologies. They are outlined in the paper ‘Interlinked Computing in 2040: Safety, Truth, Ownership and Accountability’ which has been published by the peer-reviewed journal IEEE Computer.

 

The paper’s authors are: Charles Weir and Anna Dyson of Lancaster University; Olamide Jogunola and Katie Paxton-Fear of Manchester Metropolitan University; and Louise Dennis of Manchester University.

---

JOURNAL

Computer

DOI

10.1109/MC.2023.3318377 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Survey

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Interlinked Computing in 2040: Safety, Truth, Ownership and Accountability

Contrasting characteristics and outcomes of sports-related and non–sports-related traumatic brain injury

JAMA Network Open

Peer-Reviewed Publication

JAMA NETWORK

About The Study: In this study of 4,360 patients with traumatic brain injury (TBI), functional limitations six months after injury were common after sports-related TBI, even mild sports-related TBI. Persisting impairment was evident in the sports-related TBI group despite better recovery compared with non–sports-related TBI on measures of mental health and post-concussion symptoms. These findings caution against taking an overoptimistic view of outcomes after sports-related TBI, even if the initial injury appears mild.

Authors: Lindsay Wilson, Ph.D., of the University of Stirling in Stirling, United Kingdom, is the corresponding author. 

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/ 

(doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.53318)

Editor’s Note: Please see the article for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

#  #  #

Embed this link to provide your readers free access to the full-text article This link will be live at the embargo time http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2023.53318?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=012424

About JAMA Network Open: JAMA Network Open is an online-only open access general medical journal from the JAMA Network. On weekdays, the journal publishes peer-reviewed clinical research and commentary in more than 40 medical and health subject areas. Every article is free online from the day of publication. 

---

JOURNAL

JAMA Network Open

No sex difference in concussion recovery among college athletes

More symptoms in women don’t delay concussion recovery, study finds

Peer-Reviewed Publication

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY

A new large, national study of collegiate student-athletes in the United States dispels a long-held belief about concussions, finding that women and men recover from sport-related head injuries within the same time frame.                                             

Women and men’s recovery patterns were similar on tests of cognitive function, symptoms and mental health, and in balance and reaction time. Though women as a group entered the return-to-play protocol later than men, there was no significant difference in the time it took for men and women to return to unrestricted participation in their respective sports.

The findings are based on an analysis of medical data from 906 student-athletes competing in sports at National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) institutions.

“I think a lot of people will be surprised in such a large sample that women and men recover along the same trajectory,” said senior study author Jaclyn Caccese, assistant professor in The Ohio State University School of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences. “For many years we’ve thought women took longer to recover, but evidence suggests that if women get the same access to care, they do recover similarly.”

The research was published recently in the journal Sports Medicine.

Data came from the Concussion Assessment, Research and Education (CARE) Consortium, an initiative established by the NCAA and U.S. Department of Defense to fill gaps in knowledge about concussion effects and recovery among student-athletes at colleges, universities and military service academies.

The study sample was 61% female and included student-athletes in 15 sex-comparable sports ranging from basketball and diving to ice hockey, soccer and volleyball. Members of all-male football and wrestling teams and all-female field hockey squads were excluded.

“Much of the concussion research came out of football, a predominantly male sport. This study is important because it’s the largest study of concussion recovery in women to date,” said Caccese, citing a 2022 review showing that 40% of 171 studies on which athlete concussion recovery consensus papers were based had no female participants and relied on samples that were overall 80% male.

“We’ve been making clinical decisions based on studies that included only a very small percentage of females,” she said. “But if student-athletes’ cognitive function, symptoms and mental health are recovering along the same trajectories, we probably don’t need to hold women back longer.”

Participants in the CARE initiative completed pre-season baseline assessments that enabled, for this study, comparisons to their health status after a sport-related concussion. Post-concussion evaluations were taken within six hours of the injury, 24-48 hours later, the day they entered return-to-play protocol, the day they were cleared for unrestricted play and six months post-injury.

The tests over that time period included assessments of cognition and memory, balance, reaction time, and overall symptoms and how distressing they were, as well as surveys on health, anxiety and depression, and satisfaction with life.

Statistical analysis showed that recovery trajectories did not differ by sex, with the exception of women reporting more problems with eye and inner ear function than men within 48 hours of injury. As a group, women waited a day longer than men to start return-to-play workouts, but there was no statistical difference in student-athletes’ return to unrestricted competition – on average, about two weeks post-concussion.

Women did report higher symptoms than men at baseline (headache, pressure in the head, fatigue, for example) and during recovery, though the study cannot explain why. The researchers posed the question in their paper: Could it be biological differences affecting symptom experience, or sociocultural differences in reporting behavior?

Caccese said this finding suggests that individual baseline data or established data on sex-specific norms is needed to properly evaluate athletes’ overall condition after a sport-related head injury.

“Otherwise, clinical providers might think women are not recovered who actually are,” she said.

She also noted that high schools have tended to focus athletic trainer resources over past years on sports with the highest injury risk – namely, football – meaning there’s a good chance female athletes at the high school level haven’t received the same level of medical attention.

“Student-athletes at the institutions in this study receive immediate access to the best sports medicine evaluation and treatment. I think that could be one of the driving factors in why we didn’t see much of a sex difference,” Caccese said. “Historically, some women’s sports didn’t have the same on-site access to health care, and what that does is result in delayed evaluation, delayed initiation of treatment and prolonged recovery. I think having someone on the field watching and taking care of athletes and knowing them and knowing how to provide concussion management is key.”

Co-authors of the study were investigators from multiple CARE Consortium member institutions, including its principal investigators.

#

Contact: Jaclyn Caccese, Jaclyn.Caccese@osumc.edu

Written by Emily Caldwell, Caldwell.151@osu.edu; 614-292-8152

---

JOURNAL

Sports Medicine

DOI

10.1007/s40279-023-01982-2 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

New model predicts how shoe properties affect a runner’s performance

Developed by MIT engineers, the model could be a tool for designers looking to innovate in sneaker design.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

 

IMAGE: 

RESEARCHERS MEASURE THE STIFFNESS OF MIDSOLE DESIGNS USING AN INSTRON MACHINE TO MIMIC FOOTSTEPS.

view more 

CREDIT: CREDIT: MELANIE GONICK, MIT

A good shoe can make a huge difference for runners, from career marathoners to couch-to-5K first-timers. But every runner is unique, and a shoe that works for one might trip up another. Outside of trying on a rack of different designs, there’s no quick and easy way to know which shoe best suits a person’s particular running style. 

MIT engineers are hoping to change that with a new model that predicts how certain shoe properties will affect a runner’s performance. 

The simple model incorporates a person’s height, weight, and other general dimensions, along with shoe properties such as stiffness and springiness along the midsole. With this input, the model then simulates a person’s running gait, or how they would run, in a particular shoe. 

Using the model, the researchers can simulate how a runner’s gait changes with different shoe types. They can then pick out the shoe that produces the best performance, which they define as the degree to which a runner’s expended energy is minimized 

While the model can accurately simulate changes in a runner’s gait when comparing two very different shoe types, it is less discerning when comparing relatively similar designs, including most commercially available running shoes. For this reason, the researchers envision the current model would be best used as a tool for shoe designers looking to push the boundaries of sneaker design. 

“Shoe designers are starting to 3D print shoes, meaning they can now make them with a much wider range of properties than with just a regular slab of foam,” says Sarah Fay, a postdoc in MIT’s Sports Lab and the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society (IDSS). “Our model could help them design really novel shoes that are also high-performing.”

The team is planning to improve the model, in hopes that consumers can one day use a similar version to pick shoes that fit their personal running style.

“We’ve allowed for enough flexibility in the model that it can be used to design custom shoes and understand different individual behaviors,” Fay says. “Way down the road, we imagine that if you send us a video of yourself running, we could 3D print the shoe that’s right for you. That would be the moonshot.”

The new model is reported in a study appearing this month in the Journal of Biomechanical Engineering. The study is authored by Fay and Anette “Peko” Hosoi, professor of mechanical engineering at MIT.

Running, revamped

The team’s new model grew out of talks with collaborators in the sneaker industry, where designers have started to 3D print shoes at commercial scale. These designs incorporate 3D-printed midsoles that resemble intricate scaffolds, the geometry of which can be tailored to give a certain bounce or stiffness in specific locations across the sole. 

“With 3D printing, designers can tune everything about the material response locally,” Hosoi says. “And they came to us and essentially said, ‘We can do all these things. What should we do?’”

“Part of the design problem is to predict what a runner will do when you put an entirely new shoe on them,” Fay adds. “You have to couple the dynamics of the runner with the properties of the shoe.”

Fay and Hosoi looked first to represent a runner’s dynamics using a simple model. They drew inspiration from Thomas McMahon, a leader in the study of biomechanics at Harvard University, who in the 1970s used a very simple “spring and damper” model to model a runner’s essential gait mechanics. Using this gait model, he predicted how fast a person could run on various track types, from traditional concrete surfaces to more rubbery material. The model showed that runners should run faster on softer, bouncier tracks that supported a runner’s natural gait. 

Though this may be unsurprising today, the insight was a revelation at the time, prompting Harvard to revamp its indoor track — a move that quickly accumulated track records, as runners found they could run much faster on the softier, springier surface.

“McMahon’s work showed that, even if we don’t model every single limb and muscle and component of the human body, we’re still able to create meaningful insights in terms of how we design for athletic performance,” Fay says. 

Gait cost

Following McMahon’s lead, Fay and Hosoi developed a similar, simplified model of a runner’s dynamics. The model represents a runner as a center of mass, with a hip that can rotate and a leg that can stretch. The leg is connected to a box-like shoe, with springiness and shock absorption that can be tuned, both vertically and horizontally. 

They reasoned that they should be able to input into the model a person’s basic dimensions, such as their height, weight, and leg length, along with a shoe’s material properties, such as the stiffness of the front and back midsole, and use the model to simulate what a person’s gait is likely to be when running in that shoe. 

But they also realized that a person’s gait can depend on a less definable property, which they call the “biological cost function” — a quality that a runner might not consciously be aware of but nevertheless may try to minimize whenever they run. The team reasoned that if they can identify a biological cost function that is general to most runners, then they might predict not only a person’s gait for a given shoe but also which shoe produces the gait corresponding to the best running performance. 

With this in mind, the team looked to a previous treadmill study, which recorded detailed measurements of runners, such as the force of their impacts, the angle and motion of their joints, the spring in their steps, and the work of their muscles as they ran, each in the same type of running shoe. 

Fay and Hosoi hypothesized that each runner’s actual gait arose not only from their personal dimensions and shoe properties, but also a subconscious goal to minimize one or more biological measures, yet unknown. To reveal these measures, the team used their model to simulate each runner’s gait multiple times. Each time, they programmed the model to assume the runner minimized a different biological cost, such as the degree to which they swing their leg or the impact that they make with the treadmill. They then compared the modeled gait with the runner’s actual gait to see which modeled gait — and assumed cost — matched the actual gait. 

In the end, the team found that most runners tend to minimize two costs: the impact their feet make with the treadmill and the amount of energy their legs expend. 

“If we tell our model, ‘Optimize your gait on these two things,’ it gives us really realistic-looking gaits that best match the data we have,” Fay explains. “This gives us confidence that the model can predict how people will actually run, even if we change their shoe.”

As a final step, the researchers simulated a wide range of shoe styles and used the model to predict a runner’s gait and how efficient each gait would be for a given type of shoe. 

“In some ways, this gives you a quantitative way to design a shoe for a 10K versus a marathon shoe,” Hosoi says. “Designers have an intuitive sense for that. But now we have a mathematical understanding that we hope designers can use as a tool to kickstart new ideas.”

This research is supported, in part, by adidas.

###

Written by Jennifer Chu, MIT News

Paper: “Modeling Running via Optimal Control for Shoe Design”

https://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/biomechanical/article/doi/10.1115/1.4064405/1194089/Modeling-Running-via-Optimal-Control-for-Shoe

 

---

JOURNAL

Journal of Biomechanical Engineering

DOI

10.1115/1.4064405 

ARTICLE TITLE

“Modeling Running via Optimal Control for Shoe Design”