Saturday, February 10, 2024

 

Forgotten Passing Arrangements Led to Towboat Collision

Carol McManus
Courtesy NTSB

PUBLISHED FEB 8, 2024 5:32 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

The National Transportation Safety Board has determined that a major barge tow collision was caused by a pilot forgetting the passing arrangements that he had agreed on with another towboat, putting the two on the same side of the river. 

In the early hours of January 9, 2023, the towboat Big D was downbound on the Mississippi and encountered the upbound towboat Carol McManus. Both were pushing full barge tows ahead; Carol McManus had 42 barges and an overall tow length of 1,560 feet, longer than a ULCC. 

The two towboats were on track to meet at a bend in the river. At about 0134, Big D's pilot called the Carol McManus on VHF and proposed a "one whistle" passing arrangement (port-to-port). Big D would "hold tight" to the inside of the bend, on the right descending bank of the river. The Carol McManus' pilot agreed, saying "yeah, that'd be fine."

As they proceeded towards the bend, both towboats took a course along the right descending bank. The Big D's pilot noticed that something was wrong as his tow approached the bend: AIS showed that the Carol McManus was coming towards him, and so did the McManus' lights. 

At 0151, when the two tows were just 1,000 feet apart and closing, Big D's pilot called Carol McManus to alert the towboat that it was "still cutting in on me." The McManus' pilot appeared to misremember their passing arrangement and responded “You said two whistle, right?”

Both pilots took measures to reduce the effects of a collision, backing down and maneuvering to minimize damage. The tows collided head-on at 0152, and multiple barges made contact. Both tows broke up, scattering barges along the river. Other nearby towboats responded and helped to round up the runaways. 

Courtesy NTSB

14 barges were damaged by the collision, with an estimated total repair cost of about $1.4 million. The impact also breached piping systems on a tank barge full of ethanol, releasing about 1,400 gallons of the chemical into the river. 

There were no signs that Carol McManus' pilot was in any way unqualified for the task. He was an experienced towboat master with 50 years of experience on the water, including 30 as master or pilot. He was working a six-and-six schedule, standing watch from 1100-1700 and 2300-0500 every day, and he said that he got five hours of sleep between each watch. He passed all drug and alcohol testing. 

In a post-casualty interview, he told investigators that he "got confused" about the passing arrangements and "forgot" about the agreement with Big D. 

NTSB noted that six-and-six watch rotations can cause fatigue, but the McManus' pilot did not show signs of impairment. Instead, investigators honed in on the details of the passing arrangement conversation, as well as the length of time (20 minutes) between when the two pilots reached an agreement and when the vessels actually met. Repeating the details of the agreement back over the radio - instead of a nonspecific acknowledgement like "that'd be fine" - would have improved the odds of remembering it, NTSB advised. The agency said that it is "critical" to do so - even if COLREGS does not require it. 

"Had the Carol McManus pilot repeated back the proposed arrangement, he would have been more likely to correctly recall the agreement and maneuver his tow to the left descending bank," NTSB concluded. 

 

Carnival Magic Dented and Scraped Hitting Jamaica Pier in Strong Winds

Carnival Magic pier damage
Damage to the hull of the Carnival Magic after making contact with the pier (Triple D Photography/Rock Ambassadors Media on Facebook)

PUBLISHED FEB 7, 2024 4:39 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

One of Carnival Cruise Line’s large cruise ships, the 130,000 gross ton Carnival Magic, is a little worse for wear after heavy weather yesterday pushed the ship into the dock. The cruise ship remained overnight in Jamaica as an expert team was traveling to meet the ship and inspect the damage.

Pictures show the ship with dents and scrapes along a section of the starboard side where it was pushed against the dock by high winds and a strong surf. The ship’s captain Francesco La Farina confirmed that they had made contact saying “strong winds and swells caused the pier fender to collapse under pressure.”

The cruise ship, which is 1,004 feet in length, had arrived in Ocho Rios, Jamaica early on Tuesday, February 6, with passengers beginning to disembark for a day of tours and sightseeing on the island. The ship is reportedly sold out with more than 3,600 passengers aboard for a special charter rock music cruise. 

 

 

Around 11:00 a.m. local time the weather increased and videos showed the ship rocking back and forth along the pier. Later pictures show scrapes and dents to the hull above the waterline where the cruise ship made contact with the dock. Another picture shows a crack in the concrete on the pier, although it is unclear if it was caused by the cruise ship.

“For safety reasons, the ship had to sail out to sea,” the captain wrote to the passengers. The decision was to move the ship to an alternate pier, but it was occupied by the Costa Pacifica cruise ship, so the Carnival Magic remained offshore. Carnival passengers coming back to the dock were surprised to find their ship out to sea. 

Carnival reports its shore team was making arrangements for passengers stuck onshore, but people were complaining on social media there were hundreds of people with little space and shelter from the rainstorms. Finally, in the evening, Carnival bused the passengers to a new pier to rejoin the cruise ship.

 

 

 

The weather has been playing havoc on the cruise ships as a strong weather front moved across the Western Caribbean. The Carnival Magic had skipped a prior stop in Bimini the Miami Herald reports. Yesterday, three other cruise ships, the Carnival DreamNorwegian Breakaway, and Regal Princess, were unable to dock in Cozumel, Mexico because of similar high surf and wind conditions.

Carnival Cruise Line reported the Carnival Magic would remain in Jamaica till 5:00 p.m. Wednesday, skipping a planned port call in Grand Cayman. The captain blamed the cancelation of Grand Cayman also on the weather, although the Carnival Magic was still undergoing inspections before it was cleared to depart to return to PortMiami. The ship had sailed from Florida on February 4 on the six-night cruise. The ship departed Jamaica as planned Wednesday afternoon with its AIS showing it is heading to Bimini before its return to Florida. 

 

Spain Begins Investigation into Death of Sailor on Balearia Ferry

Balearia ferry
The crewmember was discovered unconscious when the Napoles arrived in Algeciras on Monday (Balearia file photo)

PUBLISHED FEB 8, 2024 4:39 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE


 


Spanish authorities confirmed that they are looking into the circumstances behind the death of a sailor working aboard Baleària Shipping Company’s ferry Napoles discovered earlier this week. The union requested the investigation while it is also calling for improvements in the occupational risk prevention policies.

The shipping company Baleària issued a brief statement on Tuesday confirming that a 40-year-old sailor working aboard the ferry had been pronounced dead on Monday night, February 5, shortly after the vessel docked in Algeciras. The company expressed its deep regret and condolences saying that it was offering support to the family. The shipping company said it was also activating its internal procedures and risk prevention protocols while also investigating the incident.

“The sailor was found unconscious and not breathing in the garage upon arrival at the port of Algeciras,” the company said in its statement. “The captain of the ship, immediately, and the Algeciras health workers later, performed cardiopulmonary resuscitation protocols, unfortunately without success.”

One news report suggests that the unidentified Spanish crewmember was found between two vehicles. The unconfirmed report said that one of the vehicles might have sifted trapping the crewmember between the two vehicles. They are reporting that offloading of the ferry when it reached Algeciras, was delayed by an investigation.

The Napoles was built in 2002 and rebuilt in 2018-2019 to become one of the first RoRos operated by Baleària using liquified natural gas is registered in Cyprus. The vessel, which is 610 feet (186 meters) in length, has a capacity for up to approximately 480 vehicles. It also carries up to 1,600 passengers operating between Tangier and Algeciras.

The Workers' Commissions (Comisiones Obreras or CCOO) agreed to the investigation and collection of data for the union, which will use it to file a formal complaint. Media reports said this was the second fatal accident in the region in 2024 after four workplace fatalities in 2023 in Algeciras.

The regional secretary of Occupational Health of CCOO, José Gavilán, speaking about the overall situation in 2023 called the deaths “unacceptable” in a media briefing. He said the region had recorded a total of 3,500 workplace accidents in 2023.

“Five deaths and an average of around ten accidents a day represent a devastating situation in the workplace,” Gavilán is quoted as saying during the briefing. He vowed that his agency would take steps to improve workplace safety.




 

ECOCIDE

Mysterious Capsized Cargo Ship Causes Oil Spill Emergency in Tobago

Tobago oil spill
Oil is leaking from the capsized vessel as the authorities work to identify the ship and its owners (TEMA)

PUBLISHED FEB 9, 2024 12:04 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

 

Officials on the Caribbean island of Tobago are scrambling to clean up a growing oil spill while they also investigate the mysterious capsized vessel that is causing the growing environmental disaster. Oil is fouling the southwestern end of the island with warnings that it may continue to spread.

A massive clean-up effort has been launched as the oil continues to wash onshore with the Trinidad & Tobago Coast Guard investigating the vessel. The government is now classifying it as a Tier II disaster with the Tobago Emergency Management Agency (TEMA), Environmental Management Authority, and other government agencies all coordinating in the effort. Speculation was that it would be elevated to a Tier III disaster by the end of the day Thursday or early on Friday.

The incident began on Wednesday, February 7, when the authorities received reports of a capsized vessel. They noted that there had been no distress call and a subsequent search has failed to turn up the crew either on board or having escaped from the sinking ship. Oil from the vessel quickly began to reach the shoreline.

 

Oil is continuing to leak from the capsized cargo ship (TEMA)

 

Divers were sent to examine and identify the vessel reporting back a visual identity as Gulfstream but so far they have been unable to identify any registration information. Efforts to get to a possible registration number on the stern were being blocked by the ongoing oil leak. The vessel's visible name does not correspond with international ship registries.

They are estimating the vessel’s length at 330 feet (100 meters) and they believe it was transporting lumber and sand. The divers reported that there appears to also be damage to the nearby reef and that portions of the vessel’s superstructure detached and may lie in a debris field. 

They found no signs of life aboard the vessel, although further searches of the debris were planned. The speculation is that the vessel might have been abandoned and left to sink. The trail of damage suggests the ship drifted into the cove from the south and may have dragged along the bottom before coming to rest. Some observers are saying they saw the vessel as early as Tuesday.

Crews worked through the day on Thursday and late into the night reporting that their focus is on containment and they have deployed protective booms. The port in Scarborough they are reporting so far remains oil free while testing is ongoing to confirm their suspicions that diesel oil is leaking from the ship.

Along the beaches, 67 people are reported to be working to clean up the oil while government officials are warning the public to stay away from southwest Tobago. One of the big concerns is that the oil will contaminate fish and the food supply.





Aging Freighter Sank Under Tow Due to Engine Room Flooding

Carib Trader II slips below (NTSB / Capt Beau)
Carib Trader II slips below (NTSB / Capt Beau)

PUBLISHED FEB 7, 2024 10:36 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

 

When the crew of the tug Capt. Beau set out to tow a derelict cargo ship from Miami to Haiti, they were in for an unwelcome surprise. Just about everything that could go wrong did go wrong: in rough seas, the towed ship payed out its own anchor, broke loose from the bridle, took on water and sank by the stern.

The ship in question was an aging 270-foot freighter, the Carib Trader II. The vessel was pushing 50 years old, and was not in perfect shape; she had a long history of inspection deficiencies, and had previously been found carrying cocaine. She was detained at Miami in November 2020 for a range of safety issues, and she stayed there for more than a year while arrangements were made for repairs. 

In February 2022, the owner arranged to tow Carib Trader II to Haiti, where the vessel would be repaired. The ship was surveyed above the waterline before departure, and the Coast Guard signed off on the tow plan. 

Capt. Beau set up a tow with a bridle of Spectra, chain and wire rope, rigged to the freighter's mooring bits. They got under way and headed south for the Old Bahama Channel.

On March 6, as they were under way off the coast of Cuba, the weather was on the rough side of what the tow plan allowed for. Winds were at up to 30 knots and seas were 7-9 feet. At about 0035 hours, the mate heard a bang, and the tug sped up on its own. The mate suspected that the tow might have parted, and he woke the captain, who took over the watch. The rest of the crew pulled in the tow line and found that both legs of the Spectra line bridle had parted. 

In the dark, the Capt. Beau maneuvered to recover the tow. At about 0140, the crew noticed that the Carib Trader's port anchor had payed out and was suspended in the water column. Ominously, the freighter was also trimmed by the stern. 

The crew rigged a tow by reconnecting to the remains of the bridle on the port side, and they resumed the tow at low speed, planning to investigate further after daybreak. 

At about 0720, the mate went aboard the Carib Trader to investigate. He found that the engine room was flooded and that the water had already risen above the main engine. At the captain's direction, the mate started up a portable dewatering pump and rigged it to pump the water over the side. 

The situation did not improve, and by 1100, the mate determined that the pump was not keeping up with the rate of flooding. By 1500, the Carib Trader began listing to starboard, and it became clear that the vessel would sink. The mate got off the vessel, and the captain had the engineer cut the tow wire free. Carib Trader II went to the bottom in 3,300 feet of water at about 1620.

Based on the available information and the Carib Trader's "substandard" maintenance history, NTSB determined that the likely cause of the sinking was an unidentified leak in the engine room below the waterline. The freighter had not been drydocked in years, and the condition of the hull was unknown. 

As for the parted bridle, the surface conditions at the time of the casualty were at the allowable limits of the tow plan, and would have placed stress on the towline. NTSB assessed that two unexpected sources of drag - the trailing anchor and the increasing draft of the Carib Trader's stern - further increased the strain, raising the odds that some component would part in the 7-9 foot seas.  



Response to Boohoo scandal failed workers it should have protected, shows new report


Modern slavery charges in Leicester masked the root causes of labour exploitation


Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITY OF BATH




University of Bath Press Release

Thursday 8 February 2024


A new report from the University of Bath has revealed the human consequences of pursuing modern slavery allegations, over supply chain failings, in Leicester’s ‘Boohoo Scandal’ in 2020.

The report draws on interviews with workers, manufacturers, and civil society representatives (including community organisations, unions and auditors), to hear their experiences of the closure of hundreds of factories when Boohoo moved its manufacturing out of the city.

Thousands of people, often vulnerable South Asian migrants, have been left without work, with the cost-of-living crisis meaning many are reliant on food banks.  

The government initiated Operation Tacit probed modern slavery allegations, concluding that while there were issues related to low pay and health and safety, there were no signs of modern slavery.

The University of Bath researchers say Boohoo made ‘face-saving’ changes to move most of its operations overseas, and pledged changes to business practices, shown by BBC Panorama investigations to be surface deep.

Professor Vivek Soundararajan, report author and researcher at the University of Bath’s School of Management, said: “Allegations of modern slavery, which were unfounded, obscured the root causes of worker exploitation, including manipulative procurement by fast fashion brands and lack of labour law regulation.”

Co-author Dr Pankhuri Agarwal, who conducted the research in Leicester said: “Framing it as a crime control and prevention issue meant Boohoo was able to distance itself from allegations of modern slavery by pulling out of Leicester or making only superficial business changes.

“Meanwhile the workers and some manufacturers, who are meant to be the motivating force in modern slavery measures, lost their livelihoods and are left with even fewer choices than before.”

The researchers conducted interviews in the summer of 2023 with workers, suppliers and others involved with investigating working conditions within Leicester’s garment industry, to produce the report entitled What happened after the Boohoo Scandal? A Multi-Stakeholder Perspective of the Garment Industry in Leicester.

The report is available to read in Hindi, Gujarati and Punjabi.

A former supplier to the Boohoo brand in Leicester told researchers: Companies like Boohoo can escape the consequences even after being exposed. They fail to pay a sustainable amount that will enable manufacturers to provide fair wages.

“Consequently, well-intentioned exposés, such as the Boohoo scandal, do not truly assign responsibility for those left behind, for those who bear the brunt of such industry-altering events. Brands merely shift their production to locations where cheap labour is readily available.”

Funded by UKRI, the report is part of a four-year research project to explore dignity in the workplace in the UK and India’s garment and software development industries.

Report co-author Dr Nandita Dutta said: “There were profound consequences of pressing charges of modern slavery against garment manufacturers. Vulnerable workers lost their livelihoods while brands emerged unharmed and the government remains unchallenged in its role of rendering workers susceptible to exploitative labour practices.”

The report recommends a range of measures that brands should adopt, including collaborative production models with manufacturers and measures suited to monitoring working conditions in factories with the help of manufacturers and workers.

It recommends that government incentivise brands to locate production sites in the UK and penalise any brands and employers that apply exploitative business models.

The report also recommends a range of measures from government to protect migrant workers, including certification courses for machinists without formal training, free ESOL courses (English for speakers of other languages) in factories, and funding for community organisations.

The report is available at: https://embed-dignity.com/18036-2/

ENDS


To arrange an interview or request information please contact the University of Bath Press office press@bath.ac.uk or call +44 1225 386319.

NOTES

The University of Bath is one of the UK's leading universities for high-impact research with a reputation for excellence in education, student experience and graduate prospects.

We are named ‘University of the Year’ in The Times and The Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023, and ranked among the world’s top 10% of universities, placing 148th in the QS World University Rankings 2024. We are ranked 5th in the UK in the Complete University Guide 2024, 6th in the Guardian University Guide 2024 and 8th in the The Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide 2024.

Bath is rated in the world’s top 10 universities for sport in the QS World University Ranking by Subject 2023. We produce some of the world’s most job-ready graduates and were named University of the Year for Graduate Jobs by the Daily Mail University Guide 2024, as well as ranking as one of the world’s top 90 universities for employer reputation according to the QS World University Rankings 2024.

 

Climate change to bring invasive weeds to mid-Atlantic and northeastern US states


A weed science society of America research summary identifies most likely high-impact, range-shifting invasive plants coming to the mid-Atlantic and northeastern US


Peer-Reviewed Publication

CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS

Invasive Plant Science and Management 

IMAGE: 

INVASIVE PLANT SCIENCE AND MANAGEMENT JOURNAL COVER.

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CREDIT: WSSA




In an online article published In Invasive Plant Science and Management, vol. 16, issue 4, by Cambridge University Press, Justin D. Salva and Bethany A. Bradley performed and reported impact assessments on 104 plants most likely to expand with climate change into one or more Eastern U.S. States (Delaware, Kentucky, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and/or West Virginia) by 2050. Among these plants, 32 are high-impact species associated with negative impacts on ecological communities or multiple native species, and many are also associated with socio-economic impacts.

“The new research helps to prioritize which range-shifting invasive species to target in the region for proactive prevention and management,” says Bethany Bradley, Ph.D., Professor of Biogeography and Spatial Ecology in the Department of Environmental Conservation at University of Massachusetts - Amherst. “The impact assessment created in this study, and in related, companion papers in New York and New England states, can inform state weed risk assessments by identifying emerging invasive species most likely to cause negative impacts, including many that are tied to ornamental plant trade.”

More information is available in the article, “High-impact invasive plants expanding into Mid-Atlantic states - Identifying priority range-shifting species for monitoring in light of climate change Identifying Priority Invaders. Invasive Plant Science and Management is the official publication of the Weed Science Society of America.

About Invasive Plant Science and Management

Invasive Plant Science and Management is a journal of the Weed Science Society of America, a nonprofit scientific society focused on weeds and their impact on the environment. The publication presents peer-reviewed original research related to all aspects of weed science, including the biology, ecology, physiology, management and control of weeds. To learn more, visit www.wssa.net.

 

Ice cores provide first documentation of rapid Antarctic ice loss in the past



Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

Air bubbles in ice core 

IMAGE: 

EVIDENCE CONTAINED WITHIN AN ICE CORE SHOWS THAT IN ONE LOCATION THE WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET THINNED BY 450 METRES — THAT’S MORE THAN THE HEIGHT OF THE EMPIRE STATE BUILDING — IN JUST UNDER 200 YEARS.

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CREDIT: UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE/BRITISH ANTARCTIC SURVEY




Researchers from the University of Cambridge and the British Antarctic Survey have uncovered the first direct evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet shrunk suddenly and dramatically at the end of the Last Ice Age, around eight thousand years ago.

The evidence, contained within an ice core, shows that in one location the ice sheet thinned by 450 metres — that’s more than the height of the Empire State Building — in just under 200 years.

This is the first evidence anywhere in Antarctica for such a fast loss of ice. Scientists are worried that today’s rising temperatures might destabilize parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the future, potentially passing a tipping point and inducing a runaway collapse. The new study, published in Nature Geoscience, sheds light on how quickly Antarctic ice could melt if temperatures continue to soar.

“We now have direct evidence that this ice sheet suffered rapid ice loss in the past,” said Professor Eric Wolff, senior author of the new study from Cambridge’s Department of Earth Sciences. “This scenario isn’t something that exists only in our model predictions and it could happen again if parts of this ice sheet becomes unstable.”

The Antarctic ice sheets, from west to east, contain enough freshwater to raise global sea levels by around 57 metres. The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is considered particularly vulnerable because much of it sits on bedrock that lies below sea level.

Model predictions suggest that a large part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could disappear in the next few centuries, causing sea levels to rise. Exactly when and how quickly the ice could be lost is, however, uncertain.

One way to train ice sheet models to make better predictions is to feed them with data on ice loss from periods of warming in Earth’s history. At the peak of Last Ice Age 20,000 years ago, Antarctic ice covered a larger area than today. As our planet thawed and temperatures slowly climbed, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet contracted to more or less its current extent.

“We wanted to know what happened to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet at the end of the Last Ice Age, when temperatures on Earth were rising, albeit at a slower rate than current anthropogenic warming,” said Dr Isobel Rowell, study co-author from the British Antarctic Survey. “Using ice cores we can go back to that time and estimate the ice sheet’s thickness and extent.”

Ice cores are made up of layers of ice that formed as snow fell and was then buried and compacted into ice crystals over thousands of years. Trapped within each ice layer are bubbles of ancient air and contaminants that mixed with each year’s snowfall — providing clues as to the changing climate and ice extent.

The researchers drilled a 651-metre-long ice core from Skytrain Ice Rise in 2019. This mound of ice sits at the edge of the ice sheet, near the point where grounded ice flows into the floating Ronne Ice Shelf.

After transporting the ice cores back to Cambridge at  -20oC, the researchers analysed them to reconstruct the ice thickness. First, they measured stable water isotopes, which indicate the temperature at the time the snow fell. Temperature decreases at higher altitudes (think of cold mountain air), so they were able to equate warmer temperatures with lower-lying, thinner ice.

They also measured the pressure of air bubbles trapped in the ice. Like temperature, air pressure also varies systematically with elevation. Lower-lying, thinner ice contains higher pressure air bubbles.

These measurements told them that ice thinned rapidly 8,000 years ago. “Once the ice thinned, it shrunk really fast,” said Wolff, “this was clearly a tipping point — a runaway process.”

They think this thinning was probably triggered by warm water getting underneath the edge of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which normally sits on bedrock. This likely untethered a section of the ice from bedrock, allowing it to float suddenly and forming what is now the Ronne Ice Shelf. This then allowed neighbouring Skytrain Ice Rise, no longer restrained by grounded ice, to thin rapidly. 

The researchers also found that the sodium content of the ice (originating from salt in sea spray) increased about 300 years after the ice thinned. This told them that, after the ice thinned, the ice shelf shrunk back so that the sea was hundreds of kilometres nearer to their site.

“We already knew from models that the ice thinned at around this time, but the date of this was uncertain,” said Rowell. Ice sheet models placed the retreat anywhere between 12,000 and 5,000 years ago and couldn’t say how quickly it happened. “We now have a very precisely dated observation of that retreat which can be built into improved models,” said Rowell.

Although the West Antarctic Ice Sheet retreated quickly 8,000 years ago, it stabilized when it reached roughly its current extent. “It’s now crucial to find out whether extra warmth could destabilize the ice and cause it to start retreating again,” said Wolff.


Inside the drilling tent at Skytrain Ice Rise, engineers and scientists separating the inner barrel of the drill from the outer barrel between drilling runs.

CREDIT

University of Cambridge / British Antarctic Survey

the drilling and living tents at Skytrain Ice Rise.

CREDIT

Eric Wolff

 

End of nuclear secrecy? Underground weapon tests 'now detectable with 99% accuracy'


Peer-Reviewed Publication

ROYAL ASTRONOMICAL SOCIETY

Earthquakes vs explosions diagram 

IMAGE: 

THIS DIAGRAM SHOWS 140 EXPLOSIONS AND 1,149 EARTHQUAKES ANALYSED BY RESEARCHERS. IT REVEALS THE EXPLOSIONS PREVIOUSLY MISIDENTIFIED AS EARTHQUAKES (RED DIAMONDS) AND EARTHQUAKES WRONGLY CLASSIFIED AS NUCLEAR BLASTS (GREEN DIAMONDS).

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CREDIT: ANU




End of nuclear secrecy? Underground weapon tests 'now detectable with 99% accuracy'

Royal Astronomical Society press release

RAS PR 24/04

For immediate release

 

Secret underground nuclear tests could now be a thing of the past thanks to a major scientific breakthrough in ways to identify them.

A team of Earth scientists and statisticians say they can now tell with 99 per cent accuracy if such an explosion has taken place. This is up from 82 per cent and is based on a dataset of known tests in the US, according to the new study published in Geophysical Journal International.

It has previously been tricky to differentiate between nuclear explosions and other seismic sources, such as naturally-occurring earthquakes or man-made noise above ground.

“The explosion goes off and you have all this energy that radiates out, which can be measured on seismometers,” said lead author Dr Mark Hoggard, of The Australian National University (ANU).

“So, the science problem becomes how do we tell the difference between that and a naturally-occurring earthquake?”

This was an issue seven years ago, when several of the existing methods used to identify underground nuclear explosions failed to establish that North Korea had carried out such a test.

The secretive communist state later confirmed it had successfully tested a weapon with a force of between 100-370 kilotons. For comparison, a 100 kiloton bomb is six times more powerful than the one the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.

North Korea is the only country known to have carried out an underground nuclear test in the 21st century, but satellite imagery revealed last year that Russia, the US and China have all built new facilities at their nuclear test sites in recent years.

Although there is no suggestion the three superpowers are planning to resume such experiments, the war in Ukraine has made the global security landscape uncertain.

“By using some revised mathematics and more advanced statistical treatment, we have managed to improve the classification success rate from 82 per cent to 99 per cent for a series of 140 known explosions in the US,” Dr Hoggard said.

“Nuclear testing in the US has largely been carried out in Nevada – in the desert – and there is a thorough seismic record of all those tests, so it provides a really helpful dataset.

“Our new method also successfully identifies all six of the tests conducted in North Korea from 2006 to 2017.”

Dr Hoggard said there may still be instances of underground nuclear tests being carried out surreptitiously in some parts of the world, and the sheer volume of earthquakes makes it difficult to investigate each event to determine if it is suspicious or not.

“This makes effective methods like ours all the more important,” he added.

“It also doesn’t require any new kit - you don’t have to put up satellites or anything like that, we’re just using standard seismic data.”

Dr Hoggard described the model as “pretty fast”, making it “more or less suitable for real-time monitoring”.

The research was carried out by a team of Earth scientists and statisticians working at ANU and the Los Alamos government research lab in the US.

They say the new approach “provides a means to rapidly assess the likelihood of an event being an explosion”.

The mathematical model was built by analysing the physical differences in the pattern of rock deformation at the source of nuclear explosions and earthquakes, allowing experts to determine which seismic event a recorded noise is more likely to belong to.

International efforts shifted to monitoring significant seismic waves in the aftermath of the Cuban Missile Crisis and Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty in the 1960s, which limited the testing of nuclear weapons to underground only.

The agreement was introduced following years of environmentally-damaging experiments carried out at the surface and/or underwater. These polluted many locations and in some instances led to catastrophic levels of radioactive fallout.

But the new monitoring it required brought about its challenges - primarily how to differentiate between nuclear explosions and other seismic sources.

It has taken more than six decades, but the scientists behind the new research believe their innovative method could now make this a lot easier for groups such as the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), which is tasked with international surveillance of nuclear testing.

Dr Hoggard said his team’s mathematical model would be “another tool in CTBTO’s armoury for detecting any potential underground tests that are conducted in secret”.

He added: “A ban on all future tests is unlikely given that several major nations remain unwilling to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

“Well-supported monitoring programs are therefore critical for ensuring that all governments are held accountable for the environmental and societal impacts of nuclear weapons testing.”

The paper ‘Seismic moment tensor classification using elliptical distribution functions on the hypersphere’ has been published in Geophysical Journal Internationa

 

Images and captions

The images in this release are public domain.

1. Castle Bravo mushroom cloud Credit: Wikipedia

The 1954 Castle Bravo mushroom cloud, which was one of the most environmentally damaging nuclear tests ever carried out. It was a main contributor to the banning of all surface nuclear tests in 1963.

2. Earthquakes vs explosions diagram Credit: ANU

This diagram shows 140 explosions and 1,149 earthquakes analysed by researchers. It reveals the explosions previously misidentified as earthquakes (red diamonds) and earthquakes wrongly classified as nuclear blasts (green diamonds).

 

Science contacts

Dr Mark Hoggard, Australian National University

mark.hoggard@anu.edu.au

Tel: +61 434 403 585

 

Further information

The paper is available via the following link: https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/237/1/1/7597260

 

Notes for editors

About the Royal Astronomical Society

The Royal Astronomical Society (RAS), founded in 1820, encourages and promotes the study of astronomy, solar-system science, geophysics and closely related branches of science. The RAS organises scientific meetings, publishes international research and review journals, recognises outstanding achievements by the award of medals and prizes, maintains an extensive library, supports education through grants and outreach activities and represents UK astronomy nationally and internationally. Its more than 4,000 members (Fellows), a third based overseas, include scientific researchers in universities, observatories and laboratories as well as historians of astronomy and others.

The RAS accepts papers for its journals based on the principle of peer review, in which fellow experts on the editorial boards accept the paper as worth considering. The Society issues press releases based on a similar principle, but the organisations and scientists concerned have overall responsibility for their content.

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