COLD WAR 2.0
Nicholas Cecil
Mon, January 6, 2025
EVENING STANDARD
The moment Finnish police seize the tanker Eagle S suspected of cutting the EstLink 2 power cable between NATO states Finland and Estonia in the Baltic Sea. (Finish borderguard service)
A British-led artificial intelligence surveillance operation has been launched to stop ships in Russia’s “shadow fleet” from cutting key underwater cables.
The Joint Expeditionary Force, made up of ten nations, activated the UK-led Nordic Warden operation following reported damage to the Estlink2 undersea cable in the Baltic Sea.
It uses AI to assess data from the Automatic Identification System ships use to broadcast their position, and other sources, to calculate the risk posed by each vessel entering areas of interest.
Vessels identified as being part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” have been registered into the system so they are closely watched.
Twenty-two areas of interest, including parts of the English Channel, North Sea, the Baltic Sea and Kattegat, between Denmark and Sweden, are currently being monitored from the JEF’s operational headquarters in Northwood, north west of London.
An alert will be triggered if any ship is assessed as posing a risk.
Sir Keir Starmer said: “This government is working closely with our allies to protect critical national infrastructure, such as undersea cables.”
Royal Navy ships have also been deployed to protect underwater cables.
The JEF stepped up its monitoring last week following reported damage on Christmas Day to the Estlink2 undersea cable in the Baltic, which authorities in Finland suggest may have been caused by a tanker which allegedly forms part of Russia’s shadow fleet of vessels it uses to attempt to bypass international sanctions.
The JEF includes Britain as the “framework nation”, as well as Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands and Sweden.
Baltic Sea nations are on high alert after a string of power cable, telecom link and gas pipeline outages since Vladimir Putin’s military invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Finnish police seized the Eagle S tanker carrying Russian oil on December 26 and said they suspected that the vessel had damaged the Finnish-Estonian Estlink 2 power line and four telecoms cables on Christmas Day by dragging its anchor across the seabed.
Sweden’s navy on Friday sent a vessel equipped for underwater work to aid Finland’s seabed investigation.
“The current suspicion is that the external force has been caused by an anchor,” said Jaakko Wallenius, Chief Security Officer at Elisa, which owns two of the four fibre optic lines.
The cables, running between Finland and Estonia, are steel-reinforced with a diameter of just over two centimetres, with several layers of insulation protecting the fibres within.
The Eagle S vessel, which is registered in the Cook Islands, was brought to a bay near Finland’s port of Porvoo where police are currently collecting evidence and questioning the crew, eight of whom were named as suspects in the investigation.
A Finnish lawyer representing the company that owns the Eagle S has said Finland hijacked the vessel at sea and should release it, a request denied by a court on Friday.
Moscow has said Finland’s seizure of the ship is not a matter for Russia.
UK using AI computer to monitor Russian shadow fleet
The moment Finnish police seize the tanker Eagle S suspected of cutting the EstLink 2 power cable between NATO states Finland and Estonia in the Baltic Sea. (Finish borderguard service)
A British-led artificial intelligence surveillance operation has been launched to stop ships in Russia’s “shadow fleet” from cutting key underwater cables.
The Joint Expeditionary Force, made up of ten nations, activated the UK-led Nordic Warden operation following reported damage to the Estlink2 undersea cable in the Baltic Sea.
It uses AI to assess data from the Automatic Identification System ships use to broadcast their position, and other sources, to calculate the risk posed by each vessel entering areas of interest.
Vessels identified as being part of Russia’s “shadow fleet” have been registered into the system so they are closely watched.
Twenty-two areas of interest, including parts of the English Channel, North Sea, the Baltic Sea and Kattegat, between Denmark and Sweden, are currently being monitored from the JEF’s operational headquarters in Northwood, north west of London.
An alert will be triggered if any ship is assessed as posing a risk.
Sir Keir Starmer said: “This government is working closely with our allies to protect critical national infrastructure, such as undersea cables.”
Royal Navy ships have also been deployed to protect underwater cables.
The JEF stepped up its monitoring last week following reported damage on Christmas Day to the Estlink2 undersea cable in the Baltic, which authorities in Finland suggest may have been caused by a tanker which allegedly forms part of Russia’s shadow fleet of vessels it uses to attempt to bypass international sanctions.
The JEF includes Britain as the “framework nation”, as well as Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands and Sweden.
Baltic Sea nations are on high alert after a string of power cable, telecom link and gas pipeline outages since Vladimir Putin’s military invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Finnish police seized the Eagle S tanker carrying Russian oil on December 26 and said they suspected that the vessel had damaged the Finnish-Estonian Estlink 2 power line and four telecoms cables on Christmas Day by dragging its anchor across the seabed.
Sweden’s navy on Friday sent a vessel equipped for underwater work to aid Finland’s seabed investigation.
“The current suspicion is that the external force has been caused by an anchor,” said Jaakko Wallenius, Chief Security Officer at Elisa, which owns two of the four fibre optic lines.
The cables, running between Finland and Estonia, are steel-reinforced with a diameter of just over two centimetres, with several layers of insulation protecting the fibres within.
The Eagle S vessel, which is registered in the Cook Islands, was brought to a bay near Finland’s port of Porvoo where police are currently collecting evidence and questioning the crew, eight of whom were named as suspects in the investigation.
A Finnish lawyer representing the company that owns the Eagle S has said Finland hijacked the vessel at sea and should release it, a request denied by a court on Friday.
Moscow has said Finland’s seizure of the ship is not a matter for Russia.
UK using AI computer to monitor Russian shadow fleet
Danielle Sheridan
THE TELEGRAPH
Mon, January 6, 2025
HMS Westminster watches Cruiser Marshal Ustinov in waters close to the UK
Mon, January 6, 2025
HMS Westminster watches Cruiser Marshal Ustinov in waters close to the UK
- Royal Navy/MoD/PA
A new AI computer programme that can detect Russia’s shadow fleet has been launched by the UK.
The Nordic Warden system, co-ordinated from Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) operational headquarters in Northwood, London, will track potential threats to undersea infrastructure and monitor the Russian shadow fleet.
Currently 22 areas of interest, including parts of the English Channel, North Sea, Baltic Sea and Kattegat, between Denmark and Sweden, are being monitored by the system.
Damage was caused to the Estlink 2 undersea power cable in the Baltic Sea at the end of December 2024. Finnish authorities suggested it may have been caused by a tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet of vessels which it uses to attempt to bypass international sanctions.
Afterwards Nato confirmed it would boost its presence in the Baltic Sea. Nations in the region have been on high alert for attacks after a string of outages of power cables, telecom links and gas pipelines since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Nordic Warden works by harnessing AI to assess data from sources including the Automatic Identification System ships use to broadcast their position, to calculate the risk posed by each vessel entering areas of interest.
John Healey, the Defence Secretary, said: ‘The UK and JEF are leading the way’
A new AI computer programme that can detect Russia’s shadow fleet has been launched by the UK.
The Nordic Warden system, co-ordinated from Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) operational headquarters in Northwood, London, will track potential threats to undersea infrastructure and monitor the Russian shadow fleet.
Currently 22 areas of interest, including parts of the English Channel, North Sea, Baltic Sea and Kattegat, between Denmark and Sweden, are being monitored by the system.
Damage was caused to the Estlink 2 undersea power cable in the Baltic Sea at the end of December 2024. Finnish authorities suggested it may have been caused by a tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet of vessels which it uses to attempt to bypass international sanctions.
Afterwards Nato confirmed it would boost its presence in the Baltic Sea. Nations in the region have been on high alert for attacks after a string of outages of power cables, telecom links and gas pipelines since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Nordic Warden works by harnessing AI to assess data from sources including the Automatic Identification System ships use to broadcast their position, to calculate the risk posed by each vessel entering areas of interest.
John Healey, the Defence Secretary, said: ‘The UK and JEF are leading the way’
- Stefan Rousseau/Reuters
Specific vessels identified as being part of Russia’s shadow fleet have been registered on the system so they can be closely monitored when approaching key areas of interest.
If a potential risk is assessed, the system will monitor the suspicious vessel in real time and send out a warning, which will be shared with the 10 JEF participant nations as well as Nato allies. The JEF partner nations include Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands, Sweden and the UK as the framework nation.
A defence source added that the new computer system would make for a “quicker” and “better result” when protecting European seas.
“You could have had people scanning a map constantly to see if a Russian ship was approaching, but this system effectively automates that process, makes it quicker and less hours of effort to get a better result,” he said.
Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, said: “Growth and national security are vital to our Plan for Change, which is why this Government is working closely with our allies to protect critical national infrastructure, such as undersea cables.
“I am pleased we are launching this cutting-edge technology so soon after the JEF summit to enhance European security.”
Monitor large areas of sea
John Healey, the Defence Secretary, said: “The UK and JEF are leading the way in providing support to our allies to help safeguard the offshore infrastructure we all rely on against potential threats.
“Operation Nordic Warden will help protect against both deliberate acts of sabotage as well as cases of extreme negligence which we have seen cause damage to underwater cables.”
He added: “Harnessing the power of AI, this UK-led system is a major innovation which allows us the unprecedented ability to monitor large areas of the sea with a comparatively small number of resources, helping us stay secure at home and strong abroad.”
Nordic Warden was first trialled during summer 2024 and again during the JEF’s Exercise Joint Protector, where more than 300 UK personnel were deployed to Latvia to demonstrate the ability of the UK to deploy its operational headquarters for JEF abroad at short notice.
The Ministry of Defence said that Monday’s announcement complemented December 2024’s agreement between the UK, Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Finland and Estonia to request proof of insurance from suspected shadow vessels as they passed along the Baltic route.
In response to the Estlink2 damage, a joint statement from the JEF members said: “This is another example of maritime incidents causing direct economic and security implications for Finland and Estonia, highlighting the risks to vital communication and energy networks essential for the security and prosperity of all our nations.
“The JEF commends Finland and Estonia for their decisive actions in dealing with the incident. We remain committed to safeguarding our shared interests and regional stability.”
Is Russia's 'shadow fleet' attacking Western infrastructure?
Specific vessels identified as being part of Russia’s shadow fleet have been registered on the system so they can be closely monitored when approaching key areas of interest.
If a potential risk is assessed, the system will monitor the suspicious vessel in real time and send out a warning, which will be shared with the 10 JEF participant nations as well as Nato allies. The JEF partner nations include Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Netherlands, Sweden and the UK as the framework nation.
A defence source added that the new computer system would make for a “quicker” and “better result” when protecting European seas.
“You could have had people scanning a map constantly to see if a Russian ship was approaching, but this system effectively automates that process, makes it quicker and less hours of effort to get a better result,” he said.
Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, said: “Growth and national security are vital to our Plan for Change, which is why this Government is working closely with our allies to protect critical national infrastructure, such as undersea cables.
“I am pleased we are launching this cutting-edge technology so soon after the JEF summit to enhance European security.”
Monitor large areas of sea
John Healey, the Defence Secretary, said: “The UK and JEF are leading the way in providing support to our allies to help safeguard the offshore infrastructure we all rely on against potential threats.
“Operation Nordic Warden will help protect against both deliberate acts of sabotage as well as cases of extreme negligence which we have seen cause damage to underwater cables.”
He added: “Harnessing the power of AI, this UK-led system is a major innovation which allows us the unprecedented ability to monitor large areas of the sea with a comparatively small number of resources, helping us stay secure at home and strong abroad.”
Nordic Warden was first trialled during summer 2024 and again during the JEF’s Exercise Joint Protector, where more than 300 UK personnel were deployed to Latvia to demonstrate the ability of the UK to deploy its operational headquarters for JEF abroad at short notice.
The Ministry of Defence said that Monday’s announcement complemented December 2024’s agreement between the UK, Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Finland and Estonia to request proof of insurance from suspected shadow vessels as they passed along the Baltic route.
In response to the Estlink2 damage, a joint statement from the JEF members said: “This is another example of maritime incidents causing direct economic and security implications for Finland and Estonia, highlighting the risks to vital communication and energy networks essential for the security and prosperity of all our nations.
“The JEF commends Finland and Estonia for their decisive actions in dealing with the incident. We remain committed to safeguarding our shared interests and regional stability.”
Is Russia's 'shadow fleet' attacking Western infrastructure?
Joel Mathis, The Week US
Mon, January 6, 2025
Credit: Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Getty Images
Maybe you've heard of the "hybrid war" — Russian-sponsored attacks on European infrastructure, apparently designed to undermine support for Ukraine. Now the maritime equivalent is emerging: the "shadow fleet."
Finnish officials say a "Russia-affiliated vessel" named the Eagle S appears to have cut an undersea power line that runs between Finland and Estonia, said NPR. The tanker is suspected of being part of the shadow fleet, an armada of ships of "uncertain ownership" that has been used to help Russia evade oil sanctions. The Eagle S is registered in the Cook Islands but had "set off from Russia" the day before the line was severed. Russia is "stepping up pressure against the West," said Janne Riihelainen, a Finnish national security columnist.
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The shadow fleet "threatens security and the environment, while funding Russia's war budget," Kaja Kallas, chief of foreign policy for the European Union, said to Politico. Four telecom cables — between Finland and Estonia, and Finland and Germany — were also damaged. In response, Finnish authorities have seized the Eagle S, while Estonian officials said they were stepping up naval patrols. NATO will also "enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea," Secretary General Mark Rutte said in a social media post.
What is the shadow fleet?
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine's Western allies imposed a price cap on Russian oil exports "aimed at limiting and controlling Russian revenues," Sergey Vakulenko said at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Russia countered by using hundreds of aging off-the-books tankers owned "outside of the Western coalition." Ship owners busted for evading sanctions can be forced to "scrap the vessel," Vakulenko said. So it makes sense to use old tankers "with low residual value in order to limit the potential losses."
The fleet is designed to keep Russia's oil income flowing, but the idea of using it to "cause havoc may be proving irresistible to the Kremlin," Michael Schwirtz said at The New York Times. The Eagle S incident would be a "clear escalation by Russia in its conflict with the West." But it would be a natural extension of the low-level conflict taking place across Europe. Russia is "systematically conducting hybrid warfare against its neighboring NATO/EU countries," Estonian interior minister Lauri Läänemets said to the Times.
Can the fleet be stopped?
The shadow fleet is a "vexing challenge," said Elisabeth Braw at the Atlantic Council. The longer it operates and the larger it grows, the more it threatens the "functioning of the global maritime order." One option: Governments of seagoing nations should establish a "monitoring hub" to identify and monitor shadow fleet ships.
The EU has sanctioned 79 ships from the shadow fleet, said Business Insider. Those ships are "banned from accessing EU ports and services." The list could grow — German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock is calling for expanded sanctions. Russia-connected ships are "damaging major undersea cables in the Baltic Sea almost every month," she said. The attack on the Finland-Estonia power line is an "urgent wake-up call for all of us."
Finland's Elisa says Baltic undersea cables were torn apart by external force
Isabelle Yr Carlsson
Updated Mon, January 6, 2025
Oil tanker Eagle S is anchored near the Port of Kilpilahti in Porvoo
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) -Two undersea telecommunications cables that were damaged in the Baltic Sea on Dec. 25 appeared to have been torn apart by a strong external force, Finland's Elisa said on Monday, adding that they had now been repaired.
Baltic Sea nations are on high alert after a string of power cable, telecom link and gas pipeline outages since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The NATO military alliance has said it will boost its presence in the region.
Finnish police seized the Eagle S tanker carrying Russian oil on Dec. 26 and said they suspected that the vessel had damaged the Finnish-Estonian Estlink 2 power line and four telecoms cables on Christmas Day by dragging its anchor across the seabed.
Sweden's navy on Friday sent a vessel equipped for underwater work to aid Finland's seabed investigation.
"The current suspicion is that the external force has been caused by an anchor," Jaakko Wallenius, Chief Security Officer at Elisa, which owns two of the four fibre optic lines, told Reuters on Monday.
The cables, running between Finland and Estonia, are steel-reinforced with a diameter of just over two centimetres, with several layers of insulation protecting the fibres within.
The Eagle S vessel, which is registered in the Cook Islands, was brought to a bay near Finland's port of Porvoo where police are currently collecting evidence and questioning the crew, eight of whom were named as suspects in the investigation.
A Finnish lawyer representing the company that owns the Eagle S has said Finland hijacked the vessel at sea and should release it, a request denied by a court on Friday.
Repairing the Estlink 2 power cable that was broken along with the telecoms cables is expected to take some seven months, operators Fingrid of Finland and Elering of Estonia have said.
Moscow has said Finland's seizure of the ship is not a matter for Russia.
(Reporting by Isabelle Yr Carlsson, writing by Louise Breusch Rasmussen, editing by Terje Solsvik, Kirsten Donovan)
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