Feeling the heat across the Middle East 

King Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST)

A new international climate modeling study led by researchers at King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) highlights different potential scenarios for the future climate of the Arabian Peninsula, depending on which climate policies are implemented.[1]

The Arabian Peninsula has long been known for its high temperatures and water scarcity that challenge living and working there. However, these problems will only exasperate with the temperature increases predicted by all climate models, affecting a population that is expected to double between now and the end of the century. 

KAUST Emeritus Professor Georgiy Stenchikov, who this month was part of the team of KAUST and international researchers that won the “Nobel” prize for high-performance computing, the ACM Gordon Bell Prize for Climate Modelling, led the Arabian Peninsula study using a sophisticated tool known as “statistical downscaling” that was applied to climate models to analyze the Middle East region. 

“We applied statistical downscaling to 26 global climate models under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, giving us a spatial resolution of 9 km” said Stenchikov. “This fine resolution enhances our ability to detect and analyze regional warming and hotspots more effectively, presenting the most accurate regional-scale prediction of temperature change over the Middle East and North Africa.”  

After applying this technique, Stenchikov, along with his colleagues and lead author Abdul Malik, found that some regions in the Middle East are heating at rates three times faster than global averages.  

In the best-case scenario, if greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero by 2050, which reflects the goals of the Paris Agreement, animations from the modeling reveal that temperatures of the Arabian Peninsula will still rise by more than 2.5 degrees before the year 2100, with some parts warming 3.5 times faster than global averages.  

In the more alarming scenario, if greenhouse gas emissions reach what climate scientists call the “high emission scenario,” several provinces in Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh, may see average temperatures rise by more than 9 degrees this century. These temperature rises are expected to put severe stress on both the habitability and economic productivity of the region, reiterating the importance of good climate policy. 

This research highlights KAUST’s focus on tackling regional climate issues, aligning with its efforts highlighted at COP16 to combat desertification and promote sustainability.

Reference

1. Malik, A., Stenchikov, G., Mostamandi, S., Parajuli, S., Lelieveld, J., Zittis, G., Sheraz Ahsan, M., Atique, L., Usman, M. Accelerated Historical and Future Warming in the Middle East and North Africa. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 129, 22 (2024).| article

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Journal

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres

DOI

10.1029/2024JD041625 

Article Title

Accelerated Historical and Future Warming in the Middle East and North Africa