Monday, February 22, 2021

Long-term exposure to low levels of air pollution increases risk of heart and lung disease

Circulation Journal Report

AMERICAN HEART ASSOCIATION

DALLAS, Feb. 22, 2021 -- Exposure to what is considered low levels of air pollution over a long period of time can increase the risk of heart attack, stroke, atrial fibrillation and pneumonia among people ages 65 and older, according to new research published today in the American Heart Association's flagship journal Circulation.

Air pollution can cause harm to the cardiovascular and respiratory systems due to its effect on inflammation in the heart and throughout the body. Newer studies on the impact of air pollution on health are focused on understanding the potential harm caused by long-term exposure and are researching the effects of multiple air pollutants simultaneously. Research on air pollution is critical to informing recommendations for national environmental and health guidelines.

"People should be conscious of the air quality in the region where they live to avoid harmful exposure over long periods of time, if possible," said Mahdieh Danesh Yazdi, Pharm.D., M.P.H., Ph.D., a post-doctoral research fellow at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and lead author of the study. "Since our study found harmful effects at levels below current U.S. standards, air pollution should be considered as a risk factor for cardiovascular and respiratory disease by clinicians, and policy makers should reconsider current standards for air pollutants."

Researchers examined hospitalization records for more than 63 million Medicare enrollees in the contiguous Unites States from 2000 to 2016 to assess how long-term exposure to air pollution impacts hospital admissions for specific cardiovascular and respiratory issues. The study measured three components of air pollution: fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3). Using hundreds of predictors, including meteorological values, satellite measurements and land use to estimate daily levels of pollutants, researchers calculated the study participants' exposure to the pollutants based upon their residential zip code. Additional analysis included the impact of the average yearly amounts of each of the pollutants on hospitalization rates for non-fatal heart attacks, ischemic strokes, atrial fibrillation and flutter, and pneumonia.

Statistical analyses found thousands of hospital admissions were attributable to air pollution per year. Specifically:

The risks for heart attacks, strokes, atrial fibrillation and flutter, and pneumonia were associated with long-term exposure to particulate matter.

Data also showed there were surges in hospital admissions for all of the health outcomes studied with each additional unit of increase in particulate matter. Specifically, stroke rates increased by 2,536 for each additional ug/m3 (micrograms per cubic meter of air) increase in fine particulate matter each year.

There was an increased risk of stroke and atrial fibrillation associated with long-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide.

Pneumonia was the only health outcome in the study that seemed impacted by long-term exposure to ozone; however, researchers note there are currently no national guidelines denoting safe or unsafe long-term ozone levels.

"When we restricted our analyses to individuals who were only exposed to lower concentrations of air pollution, we still found increased risk of hospital admissions with all of the studied outcomes, even at concentration levels below current national standards," added Danesh Yazdi. "More than half of the study population is exposed to low levels of these pollutants, according to U.S. benchmarks, therefore, the long-term health impact of these pollutants should be a serious concern for all, including policymakers, clinicians and patients."

The researchers further stratified the analyses to calculate the cardiovascular and respiratory risks associated with each of the pollutants among patient subgroups including gender, race or ethnicity, age and socioeconomic factors, detailed in the study.

The causality in the study could only be interpreted and not proven definitively due to the limitations of the data available, which may have not included other known CVD risk factors. In addition, coding errors can occur in the Medicare database, which would impact the analyses.

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Co-authors are Yan Wang, Ph.D.; Qian Di, Ph.D.; Yaguang Wei, Ph.D.; Weeberb J. Requia, Ph.D.; Liuhua Shi, Ph.D.; Matthew Benjamin Sabath, M.A.; Francesca Dominici, Ph.D.; Brent A. Coull, Ph.D.; John S. Evans, Ph.D.; Petros Koutrakis, Ph.D.; and Joel Schwartz, Ph.D. Author disclosures are listed in the manuscript.

The study was funded by grants from the National Institutes of Health/National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and the United States Environmental Protection Agency.

Additional Resources:

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Statements and conclusions of studies published in the American Heart Association's scientific journals are solely those of the study authors and do not necessarily reflect the Association's policy or position. The Association makes no representation or guarantee as to their accuracy or reliability. The Association receives funding primarily from individuals; foundations and corporations (including pharmaceutical, device manufacturers and other companies) also make donations and fund specific Association programs and events. The Association has strict policies to prevent these relationships from influencing the science content. Revenues from pharmaceutical and biotech companies, device manufacturers and health insurance providers are available here, and the Association's overall financial information is available here.

About the American Heart Association

The American Heart Association is a relentless force for a world of longer, healthier lives. We are dedicated to ensuring equitable health in all communities. Through collaboration with numerous organizations, and powered by millions of volunteers, we fund innovative research, advocate for the public's health and share lifesaving resources. The Dallas-based organization has been a leading source of health information for nearly a century. Connect with us on heart.org , Facebook , Twitter or by calling 1-800-AHA-USA1.

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Structured exercise program, not testosterone therapy improved men's artery health

Hypertension Journal Report

AMERICAN HEART ASSOCIATION

Research News

DALLAS, Feb. 22, 2021 -- Twelve weeks of exercise training improved artery health and function in middle-aged and older men (ages 50-70 years) with low-to-normal testosterone levels, while testosterone therapy provided no benefits to the arteries, according to new research published today in Hypertension, an American Heart Association journal.

The natural aging process for men includes decreased testosterone and physical activity levels decline with age, leading to declines in artery health and function. Testosterone replacement therapy is often used to combat the symptoms of decreasing testosterone levels, including low energy, reduced muscle mass and reduced vigor. In the absence of any new clinical indications, testosterone sales have increased 12-fold globally in the past decades.

"The global increase in testosterone use has been very large, particularly among middle-aged and older men who might see it as a restorative hormone to increase energy and vitality," said study author Daniel J. Green, Ph.D., Winthrop Professor and cardiovascular exercise physiology researcher in the School of Human Sciences at The University of Western Australia in Perth, Australia. "However, previous studies are mixed as to whether replacement testosterone is beneficial or not, or whether it provides additional benefit over and above the effects of an exercise program."

Green and colleagues evaluated men ages 50 to 70 years old, with no history of cardiovascular disease, higher than normal waist circumferences and testosterone levels that were in the low to normal range. The researchers also excluded current smokers, men currently on testosterone treatment or men on medications that would alter testosterone concentrations. At the beginning and end of the study, researchers measured artery function using a method that increases blood flow inside an artery. This assesses whether the inner lining of the artery is healthy and can help the artery to increase in size or dilate.

The 12-week study included 78 men randomized into four groups: 21 men received topical testosterone and completed a supervised exercise program including aerobic and strength exercises two to three times a week; 18 men received testosterone with no exercise; 20 men received a placebo and no exercise; and 19 men received a placebo with exercise. The exercise training was supervised in a research gymnasium at Fiona Stanley Hospital in Perth, and the program was overseen by an Accredited Exercise Physiologist (AEP).

The researchers found:

Testosterone treatment increased the levels of the hormone to above average levels in 62% of men in the groups that received the treatment.

Exercise training also increased testosterone level; however, the levels were highest among the men in the groups who received the testosterone supplement.

Artery function and health improved in the groups who received exercise training; but no improvement was found in those who received testosterone without exercise training.

Artery function in response to testing improved by 28% in the group who received exercise without testosterone, and by 19% in the group who received a combination of testosterone and exercise.

The researchers did not see changes in other tests that stimulated muscle cells in the middle of the artery wall, following exercise training, testosterone treatment or the combination of the two.

"The results of our study suggest that if you are a healthy but relatively inactive middle-aged or older man with increased abdominal girth, and you are worried about your risk of heart attack, stroke or diabetes, then an exercise program with some support and supervision can help to improve the function and health of your arteries," Green said. "Testosterone therapy may have some benefits, for example in increasing muscle mass in the legs, however, we didn't find any benefits in terms of artery function, which is a determinant of future cardiovascular risk."

Green noted that the study's small size is a limitation, and this research lays the foundation for larger studies that could lead to health recommendations for men.

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Co-authors are Lauren C. Chasland, B.Sc. (Hons); Louise H. Naylor, Ph.D.; Bu B. Yeap, M.B.B.S., Ph.D.; and Andrew J. Maiorana, Ph.D. The authors' disclosures are listed in the manuscript.

The study was funded by the Heart Foundation of Australia and Lawley Pharmaceuticals in Western Australia.

Additional Resources:

Available multimedia is on right column of release link - https://newsroom.heart.org/news/structured-exercise-program-not-testosterone-therapy-improved-mens-artery-health?preview=3801432097671f0f0a2cf854d07dbfea

About the American Heart Association

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Drones used to locate dangerous, unplugged oil wells

BINGHAMTON UNIVERSITY

Research News

BINGHAMTON, NY -- There are millions of unplugged oil wells in the United States, which pose a serious threat to the environment. Using drones, researchers from Binghamton University, State University of New York have developed a new method to locate these hard-to-locate and dangerous wells.

New York State has an estimated 35,000 abandoned oil or gas wells, while Pennsylvania has more than 600,000 dating back to the early days of drilling. Overall, the United States has an estimated 2 million orphaned wells. These wells pose multiple risks. They release methane into the atmosphere, a far more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, along with chemicals such as benzene, carbon tetrachloride and chloroform. Through sunlight-driven chemical reactions, methane also increases tropospheric ozone, which is considered a pollutant connected with respiratory distress.

"If all the orphaned and abandoned oil and gas wells in New York State were plugged, the equivalent of nearly 750,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide could be removed from the atmosphere, which is the equivalent of removing the cars of Buffalo for one year," said Timothy de Smet, Geophysics and Remote Sensing Laboratory Director at Binghamton University.

There are economic reasons to plug gas wells, too; left uncapped, these wells make it difficult to re-stimulate older oil fields with newer technologies such as hydraulic fracturing, according to the article.

Plugging the wells is the right thing to do -- but first you need to find them.

In 1879, New York State became the second state in the country to require plugging wells after their useful life has ended. But that plugging requirement was poorly enforced until modern regulations came to the state in 1963, and what constituted "plugging" in those early days was crude by modern standards.

The greatest concentration of unplugged wells lies in the western part of the state, especially near the border with Pennsylvania and in southwestern counties such as Cattaraugus. Currently, state Department of Conversation staff must go out on foot to identify and plug these wells, an incredibly slow and inefficient process for even a small area.

Long before the invention of satellites and global positioning systems (GPS), locations were recorded on crude hand-drawn maps, which are often inaccurate, de Smet said. Sometimes these maps under-report well sites, or record wells that ended up never being drilled. That is, where the maps exist at all.

"Some areas are completely undocumented," de Smet said.

To find abandoned wells, researchers outfitted a drone with a magnetometer that can detect magnetic anomalies in the wells' metal casings, pinpointing their location.

But before the technology could be deployed in the larger field, they first needed to do multiple smaller test trials to ensure that the process works as intended. For example, every drone has a unique magnetic and electromagnetic interference signal that needs to be compensated for, de Smet explained.

Assistant Professor of Geological Sciences and Environmental Studies Alex Nikulin and de Smet have been testing the technology as a way to detect unexploded ordnance in Ukraine, and used advanced signal processing methods to determine the optimal parameters necessary to increase the signal-to-noise ratio. In previous experiments, they also tested flight elevations over the tree canopy.

They finally tried out the well-detecting drone at a Cattaraugus County site where 11 wells had previously been mapped on foot. It worked: In just over three hours, they located 72 wells.

"We could actually have flown the drone faster and for longer missions, but this was actually the first time we'd tested this, so we were pretty conservative with mission planning," de Smet said.

Long-term, the DEC plans to adopt this strategy to locate abandoned wells, which the agency will then plug.

"Our method is pretty much the most reliable method to find them," de Smet said.

Also contributing to this research were then-graduate student Natalia Romanzo, as well as Nathan Graber and Charles Dietrich from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) and Andrii Puliaiev of the drone company UMT.

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The paper, "Successful application of drone-based aeromagnetic surveys to locate legacy oil and gas wells in Cattaraugus County, New York," was published in the Journal of Applied Geophysics.

Life from Earth could temporarily survive on Mars

Study shows sending microbes to Earth's stratosphere, to test their endurance to Martian conditions, can reveal their potential use and threats to space travel

FRONTIERS

Research News

IMAGE: MARSBOX PAYLOAD IN THE EARTH'S MIDDLE STRATOSPHERE (38 KM ALTITUDE). THE SHUTTER IS OPEN EXPOSING THE TOP LAYER SAMPLES TO UV RADIATION. view more
CREDIT: NASA

Some microbes on Earth could temporarily survive on the surface of Mars, finds a new study by NASA and German Aerospace Center scientists. The researchers tested the endurance of microorganisms to Martian conditions by launching them into the Earth's stratosphere, as it closely represents key conditions on the Red Planet. Published in Frontiers in Microbiology, this work paves the way for understanding not only the threat of microbes to space missions, but also the opportunities for resource independence from Earth.

"We successfully tested a new way of exposing bacteria and fungi to Mars-like conditions by using a scientific balloon to fly our experimental equipment up to Earth's stratosphere," reports Marta Filipa Cortesão, joint first author of this study from the German Aerospace Center, Cologne, Germany. "Some microbes, in particular spores from the black mold fungus, were able to survive the trip, even when exposed to very high UV radiation."

Microbial hitchhikers

Understanding the endurance of microbes to space travel is vital for the success of future missions. When searching for extra-terrestrial life, we need to be sure that anything we discover has not just travelled with us from Earth.

"With crewed long-term missions to Mars, we need to know how human-associated microorganisms would survive on the Red Planet, as some may pose a health risk to astronauts," says joint first author Katharina Siems, also based at the German Aerospace Center. "In addition, some microbes could be invaluable for space exploration. They could help us produce food and material supplies independently from Earth, which will be crucial when far away from home."

CAPTION

Quartz disc with dried Aspergillus niger spores, before being placed in the aluminum sample carriers that went on the Trex-box

CREDIT

German Aerospace Center (DLR)

Mars in a box

Many key characteristics of the environment at the Martian surface cannot be found or easily replicated at the surface of our planet, however, above the ozone layer in Earth's middle stratosphere the conditions are remarkably similar.

"We launched the microbes into the stratosphere inside the MARSBOx (Microbes in Atmosphere for Radiation, Survival and Biological Outcomes experiment) payload, which was kept at Martian pressure and filled with artificial Martian atmosphere throughout the mission," explains Cortesão. "The box carried two sample layers, with the bottom layer shielded from radiation. This allowed us to separate the effects of radiation from the other tested conditions: desiccation, atmosphere, and temperature fluctuation during the flight. The top layer samples were exposed to more than a thousand times more UV radiation than levels that can cause sunburn on our skin."

"While not all the microbes survived the trip, one previously detected on the International Space Station, the black mold Aspergillus niger, could be revived after it returned home," explains Siems, who highlights the importance of this ongoing research.

"Microorganisms are closely-connected to us; our body, our food, our environment, so it is impossible to rule them out of space travel. Using good analogies for the Martian environment, such as the MARSBOx balloon mission to the stratosphere, is a really important way to help us explore all the implications of space travel on microbial life and how we can drive this knowledge towards amazing space discoveries."

CAPTION

Trex-box being sealed after sample preparation at DLR. You can see the top layer harboring the quartz disc that carry the dried microbial samples

CREDIT

German Aerospace Center (DLR)

Future ocean warming boosts tropical rainfall extremes

Ocean warming predicted to cause a twofold increase in amplitude of rainfall fluctuations over the tropical Pacific

INSTITUTE FOR BASIC SCIENCE

Research News

IMAGE: (LEFT) PREDICTED CHANGE OF OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN 2050-2099 RELATIVE TO 1950-1999 USING AN ENSEMBLE OF CLIMATE MODELS. (RIGHT) PREDICTED CHANGE IN AMPLITUDE OF RAINFALL FLUCTUATIONS (YEAR-TO-YEAR STANDARD DEVIATION) IN... view more
CREDIT: CREDIT: KYUNG-SOOK YUN

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most energetic naturally occurring year-to-year variation of ocean temperature and rainfall on our planet. The irregular swings between warm and wet "El Niño" conditions in the equatorial Pacific and the cold and dry "La Niña" state influence weather conditions worldwide, with impacts on ecosystems, agriculture and economies. Climate models predict that the difference between El Niño- and La Niña-related tropical rainfall will increase over the next 80 years, even though the temperature difference between El Niño and La Niña may change only very little in response to global warming. A new study published in Communications Earth & Environment uncovers the reasons for this surprising fact.

Using the latest crop of climate models, researchers from the IBS Center for Climate Physics at Pusan National University, the Korea Polar Research Institute, the University of Hawai?i at Mānoa, and Environment and Climate Change Canada, worked together to unravel the mechanisms involved. "All climate models show a pronounced intensification of year-to-year tropical rainfall fluctuations in response to global warming." says lead author Dr. Kyung-Sook Yun from the IBS Center for Climate Physics (Image, right panel). "Interestingly the year-to-year changes in ocean temperature do not show such a clear signal. Our study therefore focuses on the mechanisms that link future ocean warming to extreme rainfall in the tropical Pacific", she goes on to say.

The research team found that the key to understanding this important climatic feature lies in the relationship between tropical ocean surface temperature and rainfall. There are two important aspects to consider: 1) the ocean surface temperature threshold for rainfall occurrence, and 2) the rainfall response to ocean surface temperature change, referred to as rainfall sensitivity. "In the tropics, heavy rainfall is typically associated with thunderstorms and deep clouds shaped like anvils. These only form once the ocean surface is warmer than approximately 27.5 degrees Celsius or 81 degrees Fahrenheit in our current climate", says co-author Prof. Malte Stuecker from the University of Hawai?i at Mānoa.

This ocean surface temperature threshold for intense tropical rainfall shifts towards a higher value in a warmer world and does not contribute directly to an increase in rainfall variability. "However, a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture which means that when it rains, rainfall will be more intense. Moreover, enhanced warming of the equatorial oceans leads to upward atmospheric motion on the equator. Rising air sucks in moist air from the off-equatorial regions, which can further increase precipitation, in case other meteorological conditions for a rain event are met." says co-lead author Prof. June-Yi Lee from IBS Center for Climate Physics.

This increase in rainfall sensititvity is the key explanation why there will be more extreme ENSO-related swings in rainfall in a warmer world.

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Rapid evolution may help species adapt to climate change and competition

WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY

Research News

VANCOUVER, Wash. - Loss of biodiversity in the face of climate change is a growing worldwide concern. Another major factor driving the loss of biodiversity is the establishment of invasive species, which often displace native species. A new study shows that species can adapt rapidly to an invader and that this evolutionary change can affect how they deal with a stressful climate.

"Our results demonstrate that interactions with competitors, including invasive species, can shape a species' evolution in response to climatic change," said co-author Seth Rudman, a WSU Vancouver adjunct professor who will join the faculty as an assistant professor of biological sciences in the fall.

Results were published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences as "Competitive history shapes rapid evolution in a seasonal climate."

Scientists have increasingly recognized that evolution is not necessarily slow and often occurs quickly enough to be observed in real time. These rapid evolutionary changes can have major consequences for things like species' persistence and responses to climatic change. The investigators chose to examine this topic in fruit flies, which reproduce quickly, allowing change to be observed over several generations in a matter of months. The team focused on two species: one naturalized in North American orchards (Drosophila melanogaster) and one that has recently started to invade North America (Zaprionus indianus).

The experiment first tested whether the naturalized species can evolve rapidly in response to exposure to the invasive species over the summer, then tested how adaptation in the summer affects the naturalized species' ability to deal with and adapt to the colder fall conditions.

"A cool thing about the way we conducted this study is that while most experiments that look at rapid evolution use controlled lab systems, we used an outdoor experimental orchard that mimics the natural habitat of our focal species," said Tess Grainger of the Biodiversity Centre at the University of British Columbia and the lead author on the paper. "This gives our experiment a sense of realism and makes our findings more applicable to understanding natural systems."

Over the course of just a few months, the naturalized species adapted to the presence of the invasive species. This rapid evolution then affected how the flies evolved when the cold weather hit. Flies that had been previously exposed to the invasive species evolved in the fall to be larger, lay fewer eggs and develop faster than flies that had never been exposed.

The study marks the beginning of research that may ultimately hold implications for other threatened species that are more difficult to study. "In the era of global environmental change in which species are increasingly faced with new climates and new competitors, these dynamics are becoming essential to understand and predict," Grainger said.

Rudman summarized the next big question: "As biodiversity changes, as climate changes and invaders become more common, what can rapid evolution do to affect outcomes of those things over the next century or two? It may be that rapid evolution will help biodiversity be maintained in the face of these changes."

In addition to Rudman and Grainger, the paper's co-authors are Jonathan M. Levine, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Department, Princeton University (where Grainger was a postdoctoral fellow); and Paul Schmidt, Department of Biology, University of Pennsylvania (where Rudman was a postdoctoral fellow). The research was conducted in an outdoor field site near the University of Pennsylvania.

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Stress was leading reason teachers quit before pandemic, and COVID has made matters worse

RAND CORPORATION

Research News

Stress was the most common reason teachers cited for leaving the profession before and during the pandemic, according to a RAND Corporation survey of nearly 1,000 former public-school teachers. Three of four former teachers said work was often or always stressful in the most recent year in which they taught in a public school.

In fact, teachers cited stress nearly twice as often as insufficient pay as a reason for quitting. Most former teachers went on to take jobs with less or equal pay, with 3 in 10 taking jobs with no health insurance or retirement benefits.

COVID-19 appears to have exacerbated teachers' stress. Almost half of public-school teachers who left the profession early and voluntarily since March 2020 listed COVID-19 as the main reason for their departure. COVID-19 has elevated stress by forcing teachers to work more hours and navigate an unfamiliar remote environment, made worse by frequent technical problems.

"Different COVID-19 stressors affected pandemic teachers differently," said Melissa Diliberti, lead author of the report and an assistant policy researcher at RAND, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization. "Insufficient pay and childcare responsibilities drove out younger teachers under 40, while older teachers were more likely to say health conditions made them leave."

Those still in education report the top attractions about their new education jobs are more flexibility in their schedules and a better work climate. Of teachers who left the profession and are currently employed, about 3 in 10 hold a non-education-related job, 3 in 10 have a different type of teaching position, and the rest are in non-teaching education jobs.

There is some good news for school districts: A substantial share of former public-school teachers are willing to come back to the profession under certain conditions.

"Despite the many reasons public school teachers left, about half of those who left primarily because of COVID-19 said they would be willing to come back once most staff are vaccinated or there was regular rapid COVID-19 testing of staff and students," said Heather Schwartz, co-author and director of the Pre-K to 12 educational systems program at RAND.

The survey was conducted in December 2020 using the RAND American Educator Panels, nationally representative samples of educators who provide their feedback on important issues of educational policy and practice.

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The other author of "Stress Topped the Reasons Why Public School Teachers Quit, Even Before COVID-19" is David M. Grant.

RAND Education and Labor, a division of RAND, is dedicated to improving education and expanding economic opportunities for all through research and analysis. Its researchers address key policy issues in U.S. and international education systems and labor markets, from pre-kindergarten to retirement planning.

New study on the forecasting of extreme rainfall events in Mediterranean countries

Researchers at the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts and TU Freiberg develop a framework to better predict extreme rainfall events in Mediterranean countries

UNIVERSITY OF FREIBERG / TU BERGAKADEMIE FREIBERG

Research News

IMAGE: (A) OROGRAPHY OF STUDIED AREA, (B) INTENSITY OF EXTREME DAILY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE DOMAIN. view more
CREDIT: MASTRANTONAS ET AL, 2020

Extreme rainfall has devastating consequences for societies and economies. Locations around the Mediterranean are frequently affected by such events, leading to landslides and floods. "It is, however, extremely challenging to forecast many days in advance when and where exactly heavy rainfall will occur. Thus, researchers strive to develop new tools to better predict extreme weather phenomena allowing for early warnings and adequate mitigation strategies", explains first author Nikolaos Mastrantonas, who has carried out the study as a PhD student within the EU-funded research project CAFE.

Learning from the past to shine a light on the future

The researchers analysed weather data from 1979 to today, grouping the daily weather into nine patterns of distinct atmospheric characteristics over the Mediterranean. The study shows that there is a strong relation between these nine patterns and the location of the extreme weather event. "We can now use the data to come up with a model that will help to better predict extreme rain in the Mediterranean", says Prof. Jörg Matschullat of TU Bergakademie Freiberg. The geoecologist supervises Nikolaos Mastrantonas' PhD and adds: "When it comes to climate, the Mediterranean Sea is a particularly interesting region as it is surrounded by large continents and mountain ranges. The regional climate of the area is also dependent on large-scale patterns over the Atlantic Ocean, the Balkans and the Black Sea".

Mountains create links across distant locations

According to the study, the nine patterns are associated with unstable low-pressure systems such as cut off lows and troughs, or with stable anticyclonic conditions, such as ridges, extending over hundreds of kilometres. "Such conditions lead to extreme precipitation events at different subregions of the Mediterranean", says Nikolaos Mastrantonas. To name one example: A low-pressure system centred over the Bay of Biscay increases the probability of extreme rainfall over mountainous and coastal regions in Spain, Morocco, Italy, and even in the West Balkans more than sixfold.

The team also found that mountains create a strong link between distant areas. In Central Western Italy, for example, three in every ten extremes happen simultaneously with extremes over Montenegro and Croatia, although almost 500 kilometres lie between these two areas. "This is a result of the Apennines that block a substantial part of the air flow, and frequently force the moisture to precipitate in the western part of Italy, and on the same day over Croatia", the young researcher explains.

New information helps to further develop forecasting models

According to the scientists, current weather forecasting models can already provide reliable information about large-scale weather variability up to three weeks in advance, a timeframe known as sub-seasonal scale. "As the next step of this work, we will quantify how reliable the state-of-the-art weather forecasting models are in predicting the identified nine patterns. Our intention is to incorporate such information into new forecasting products informing about extreme weather over the Mediterranean at sub-seasonal scales", Prof Jörg Matschullat clarifies.

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Background: The CAFE research project

CAFE, Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub-seasonal Extremes, (http://www.cafes2se-itn.eu/) is an EU-funded project with ten international partners across Europe and Latin America, including ECMWF and TU Bergakademie Freiberg. The project is funded with more than 3 million Euros within the EU research framework programme "Horizon 2020" and the Marie Sk?odowska-Curie Actions. The ultimate goal of the CAFE project is to improve the sub-seasonal predictability of extreme weather events through the interdisciplinary training of 12 young researchers in aspects such as climate science, complex networks and data analysis.

Original publication: Nikolaos Mastrantonas, Pedro Herrera Lormendez , Linus Magnusson, Florian Pappenberger, Jörg Matschullat: Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: Spatiotemporal characteristics and connection to large?scale atmospheric flow patterns, International Journal of Climatology. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.6985

Salt reduction will prevent nearly 200,000 cases of heart disease and save £1.64bn

England's salt reduction program will have led to nearly 200,000 fewer adults developing heart disease and £1.64 billion of healthcare cost savings by 2050, according to research by Queen Mary University of London

QUEEN MARY UNIVERSITY OF LONDON

Research News

England's salt reduction programme will have led to nearly 200,000 fewer adults developing heart disease and £1.64 billion of healthcare cost savings by 2050, according to research by Queen Mary University of London.

However, the researchers warn that the recent stalling of salt reduction programmes is endangering the potential health gains, as salt intake remains significantly higher than recommended levels.

Excess salt intake is strongly linked with raised blood pressure and increased risks of cardiovascular disease, as well as kidney disease, gastric cancer and osteoporosis. Raised blood pressure is responsible for half of the burden of ischemic heart disease and more than 60 per cent of strokes.

In 2003 to 2010, the Food Standards Agency, in collaboration with the food industry, established salt reduction targets in over 85 food categories, which involved reformulating processed foods, product labelling and public awareness campaigns. Consequently, average population-level salt intake reduced by 15 per cent in the period 2000 to 2011, with the decline attributed to food companies reformulating their products.

The new research, published in the journal Hypertension, used 2000-2018 population survey salt intake data and disease burden data to project the impact of the salt reduction programme, and found that:

The 2003 to 2018 salt reduction programme in England achieved an overall salt intake reduction of 1 gram/day per adult, from 9.38 grams/day in 2000 to 8.38 grams/day in 2018.
If 2018 salt intake levels are maintained, by 2050 the programme would have led to 193,870 fewer adults developing premature cardiovascular disease (comprising 83,140 cases of premature ischemic heart disease and 110,730 premature strokes), and £1.64 billion of health care cost savings for the adult population of England.
If the World Health Organization recommended salt intake of 5 grams/day is achieved by 2030 in England, these benefits could double, preventing a further 213,880 premature cardiovascular disease cases and further health and social care savings to the UK government of £5.33 billion.

Lead researcher Professor Borislava Mihaylova from Queen Mary University of London said: "Our results are striking because of the large health benefits that we see with an effective government policy of reducing salt in everyday food products.

"These gains could be seriously endangered if the policy is weakened. The stalling of salt reduction efforts in the past few years is now eating away at the potential population health gains and is costing our health service dearly.

"Over the last few years, quantities of salt in diets have remained steady at levels much higher than recommended. If we can reduce our salt intake to the recommended 5g per day, we will double health benefits and healthcare savings by the year 2050."

Professor Graham MacGregor, Professor of Cardiovascular Medicine at Queen Mary University of London and Chairman of Action on Salt said: "This study shows the enormous health benefits and cost effectiveness of the gradual reduction in salt intake in the UK that occurred between 2003-2011. Since then, the food industry has stopped reducing the excessive amounts of salt they add to our food (80 per cent of our intake) due largely to government inaction. It's now time for Downing Street to take decisive measures in forcing the food industry to comply. If not, many more thousands of people will suffer unnecessary strokes and heart attacks."

The authors say that the salt reduction programme in England was highly successful until 2011 because of the government pressure on industry to reduce salt content, but that this changed from 2011 to 2017 once it continued under the Department of Health as part of the Public Health Responsibility Deal. Few of the proposed actions were implemented under the Responsibility Deal and the programme failed to achieve the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's recommended salt intake targets of 6 grams/day per adult by 2015.

The food industry in the UK is still producing high-salt products in spite of strong evidence that it is technologically feasible and commercially viable to produce lower-salt products, and there is ample room for incremental reductions in their salt content, according to the researchers.

To get back on track, they say the programme will benefit from (1) a strict enforcement of salt reduction targets, for example, through legislation or financial penalties for food companies failing to comply; (2) setting more stringent salt targets; and (3) extending salt targets to the out-of-home sector, which remain lenient and lack the proper monitoring mechanisms.

Despite the high-quality data on population-level salt intake and disease burden used, the study has a number of limitations. The sample size for measuring sodium excretion from 24-hour urine collections (the most accurate way to assess salt intake) was small. There is also a lack of salt intake data in children. The long study period may present a further limitation due to the uncertainty in model parameters, assumptions on continuity of the salt reduction programme, and evolution of cardiovascular disease and salt intake trends.

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Notes to the editor

* Research paper: 'Impact of the 2003 to 2018 Population Salt Intake Reduction Program in England - A Modeling Study'. Sergi Alonso, Monique Tan, Changqiong Wang, Seamus Kent, Linda Cobiac, Graham A. MacGregor, Feng J. He, Borislava Mihaylova. Hypertension. DOI: 10.1161/HYPERTENSIONAHA.120.16649.

Available here after the embargo lifts: https://doi.org/10.1161/HYPERTENSIONAHA.120.16649

Study of auto recalls shows carmakers delay announcements until they 'hide in the herd'

INDIANA UNIVERSITY

Research News

IMAGE: AUTOMOTIVE RECALLS ARE OCCURRING AT RECORD LEVELS, BUT SEEM TO BE ANNOUNCED AFTER INEXPLICABLE DELAYS. A RESEARCH STUDY OF 48 YEARS OF AUTO RECALLS ANNOUNCED IN THE UNITED STATES FINDS... view more
CREDIT: INDIANA UNIVERSITY

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. - Automotive recalls are occurring at record levels, but seem to be announced after inexplicable delays. A research study of 48 years of auto recalls announced in the United States finds carmakers frequently wait to make their announcements until after a competitor issues a recall - even if it is unrelated to similar defects.

This suggests that recall announcements may not be triggered solely by individual firms' product quality defect awareness or concern for the public interest, but may also be influenced by competitor recalls, a phenomenon that no prior research had investigated.

Researchers analyzed 3,117 auto recalls over a 48-year period -- from 1966 to 2013 -- using a model to investigate recall clustering and categorized recalls as leading or following within a cluster. They found that 73 percent of recalls occurred in clusters that lasted 34 days and had 7.6 following recalls on average.

On average, a cluster formed after a 16-day gap in which no recalls were announced. They found 266 such clusters over the period studied.

"The implication is that auto firms are either consciously or unconsciously delaying recall announcements until they are able to hide in the herd," said George Ball, assistant professor of operations and decision technologies and Weimer Faculty Fellow at the Indiana University Kelley School of Business. "By doing this, they experience a significantly reduced stock penalty from their recall."

Ball is co-author of the study, "Hiding in the Herd: The Product Recall Clustering Phenomenon," recently published online in Manufacturing and Service Operations Management, along with faculty at the University of Illinois, the University of Notre Dame, the University of Minnesota and Michigan State University.

Researchers found as much as a 67 percent stock market penalty difference between leading recalls, which initiate the cluster, and following recalls, who follow recalls and hide in the herd to experience a lower stock penalty.

This indicates a "meaningful financial incentive for auto firms to cluster following recalls behind a leading recall announcement," researchers said. "This stock market penalty difference dissipates over time within a cluster. Additionally, across clusters, the stock market penalty faced by the leading recall amplifies as the time since the last cluster increases."

The authors also found that firms with the highest quality reputation, in particular Toyota, triggered the most recall followers.

"Even though Toyota announces some of the fewest recalls, when they do announce a recall, 31 percent of their recalls trigger a cluster and leads to many other following recalls," Ball said. "This number is between 5 and 9 percent for all other firms. This means that firms are likely to hide in the herd when the leading recall is announced by a firm with a stellar quality reputation such as Toyota.

"A key recommendation of the study is for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to require auto firms to report the specific defect awareness date for each recall, and to make this defect awareness date a searchable and publicly available data field in the auto recall dataset NHTSA provides online," Ball added. "This defect awareness date is required and made available by other federal regulators that oversee recalls in the U.S., such as the Food and Drug Administration. Making this defect awareness date a transparent, searchable and publicly available data field may discourage firms from hiding in the herd and prompt them to make more timely and transparent recall decisions."

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Co-authors of the study were Ujjal Mukherjee, assistant professor of business administration at the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois who was the lead author; Kaitlin Wowak, assistant professor of IT, analytics, and operations at the Mendoza College of Business at the University of Notre Dame; Karthik Natarajan, assistant professor of supply chain and operations at the Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota; and Jason Miller, associate professor of supply chain management at the Broad College of Business at Michigan State University.

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Monday, February 22, 2021

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Salt reduction will prevent nearly 200,000 cases of heart disease and save £1.64bn

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