The more fertile you are, the sooner you may die — study

Fred Schwaller

DW
December 15, 2023

The genes that boost fertility mean you're more likely to die younger, according to a new study.

A new study suggests genetic variants involved in reproduction also contribute to premature aging in humans

Image: Fotolia/Prodakszyn


One of the puzzles of evolution is why we peter out into old age once we can no longer reproduce.

Now, scientists believe that aging may actually be a consequence of how we evolved to reproduce, and it's all a result of natural selection over millions of years.

A study analyzing the genes of 276,406 UK Biobank participants found that people carrying gene variances promoting reproduction are less likely to survive to old age.

"We confirm a hypothesis called the antagonistic pleiotropy hypothesis, which says that mutations promoting reproduction are more likely to reduce life span," said Jianzhi Zhang, of the University of Michigan in the US and senior author of the study in the journal Science.

According to the research, people carrying genetic variances promoting reproduction were more likely to die by the age of 76. The study also shows that genetic variances promoting reproduction increased over generations from 1940 to 1969, meaning humans are still evolving and strengthening the trait.

Age, menstrual cycle, sports: Factors influencing fertility  11:22

"This shows the evolutionary pattern of high reproduction and low survival [and vice versa] is still visible in modern humans. Our gene variants are the product of hundreds of thousands of years of evolution. What's surprising is that despite our far better health than ever before, this pattern is still visible," said Steven Austad, an expert in aging research at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, in the US, who wasn't involved in the study.
Why aren't humans more fertile in old age?

Scientists have been puzzling over the evolutionary origins of aging for some time. It's unclear why, from an evolutionary perspective, our reproductive performance declines with age. Surely being more fertile in old age would be evolutionary advantageous, giving us more time to pass on our genes?

Not so, according to the antagonistic pleiotropy hypothesis. The hypothesis states that the benefits of fertility in early life are responsible for the dreadful cost of aging. This new study now provides robust evidence from a huge sample of humans to back it up.

"This idea is that some traits [and genetic variants that cause them] are important when we are young, helping us grow strong and be fertile. But, when we get older, those same traits can start causing problems and make us fragile and unhealthy. It's like some mutations having two sides: a good side when we're young, and a not-so-good side when we're old," said Arcadi Navarro Cuartiellas, a geneticist at the Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona, Spain who was not involved in the study.

One example is the effects of menopause and fertility loss in women. Eggs, sometimes called ova, deplete during a woman's lifetime. This makes a person more fertile in young adulthood, but results in loss of fertility later in life through menopause.

Genetic variants that increase the chances of having twins may also increase with aging

Pavlo Gonchar/ZUMAPRESS/picture alliance

Biologists think the benefits of regular cycles for reproduction may outweigh the cost of infertility in older age. The downside is that menopause speeds up aging.

"Another example is, say, a gene variant enhances fertility so that a woman is more likely to have twins. Evolutionarily that might be advantageous, because she will potentially leave more copies of that variant than women who have single babies. But having twins leads to more wear and tear on her body so she ages more quickly. That would be an antagonistically pleiotropic process," said Austad.

The converse is true as well. A gene variant that reduces fertility early in life will likely cause a person to have fewer or no children, so that the person ages more slowly, Austad added.
But how does the environment affect aging?

The antagonistic pleiotropy hypothesis does have its criticisms, however. For one, it doesn't account for the huge effects of the environment and socioeconomic changes on aging, and nor does this study.

After all, humans are living longer than ever before in history, and it's mostly due to better health care rather than genetic evolution.

"These trends of phenotypic changes are primarily driven by environmental shifts including changes of lifestyles and technologies," said Zhang. "This contrast indicates that, compared with environmental factors, genetic factors play a minor role in the human phenotypic changes studied here."

Austad said a surprising outcome of the study was that reproductive genes had such a strong and observable effect on aging.

"Environmental factors are so important that I'm really surprised patterns [observed in this study] were still visible despite their importance. I think that is the advantage of having hundreds of thousands of individuals in a study," he said.

Research could have implications for aging

The antagonistic pleiotropy hypothesis had "mountains of evidence before this paper but not for humans," according to Austad. But the research in humans, and with such a huge sample size, means the study could be important for understanding aging-related diseases.

"Ultimately, some of these variants could now be examined to see if they link to certain later life health problems, so that those problems can be monitored closely and possibly prevented," Austad told DW.

Scientists think the hypothesis could help explain why many serious genetic disorders are prevalent in our long evolutionary history.

Sickle cell anemia is a good example of antagonistic pleiotropy – whereby an inherited blood disorder which causes anemia actually evolved as a protective mechanism against malaria.

Can we counter the aging process?  04:16

Zhang told DW that antagonistic pleiotropy may also be at play in Huntington's disease.

"Mutations causing Huntington's disease, a neurodegenerative disorder, also increase fecundity [the possible number of offspring produced]," Zhang said.

Mutations in the gene which causes Huntington's disease have also been hypothesized to lower rates of cancer.

Zhang said the paper could also have implications for the rising science of anti-aging.

"In theory, one could tinker with those antagonistically pleiotropic mutations to prolong life, but the downside would be reducing or delaying reproduction," said Zhang.

Edited by: Martin Kuebler

Pakistan's farms, mines in trouble with Afghans pushed out

COUNTRIES RELY ON MIGRANTS FOR CHEAP LABOR

Jamila Achakzai in Islamabad

DW

December 15, 2023

Skilled Afghan workers are in short supply in Pakistan as the country continues its clampdown on illegal migrants. Farmers and mine owners are now paying the price.

The clampdown on illegal immigrants also prompted some documented Afghans to leave Pakistan

Ebrahim Noroozi/AP Photo/picture alliance

The abrupt departure of thousands of undocumented Afghans has left Bibi Jawzara, an elderly Pakistani woman, "really worried."

For decades, she has relied on Afghan migrants to tend her farm in the southwestern province of Balochistan, which borders Afghanistan. But with Pakistani officials launching an effort to expel some 1.7 million undocumented Afghans last month, the septuagenarian has been struggling to find skilled workers to prune and fertilize apple trees and grapevines on her land.

"The crucial fertilizer time is upon me but I don't have enough workers for this job," she told DW. "As my sons and grandsons live in cities for business and education, Afghan refugees cared for our orchards for years. But now as they suddenly left for home to avoid deportation, we find ourselves in a real predicament."
Afghans going back after decades in Pakistan

Jawzara used to employ members of five Afghan Pashtun families, who fled their country after the Soviet invasion in 1979. Refugee women used to do chores in her house and men worked in fields, with the Pakistani woman and two of her sons supervising and helping them.

Even with new generations in the small community born and raised in Pakistan, they tended to live on Jawzara's farmland and be dependent on their employer for food, health care and other needs.

But the recent anti-immigrant clampdown has changed everything.

Pakistan: 'Afghan Shah Rukh Khan' fears deportation  02:38

Most undocumented Afghans in Pakistan were living in Balochistan and northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces — both bordering Afghanistan — and never felt residency documents were necessary, with their lives limited to their areas.

Earlier this year, the Pakistani government declared the presence of undocumented migrants to be both a security and economic challenge. Hundreds of thousands have already been expelled or left on their own.

And, despite Pakistani officials pledging that 2.3 million legal Afghan migrants were free to remain as long as their papers are valid, more than a few documented migrants also returned to their home country. They feared that Pakistan would soon try to deport them as well, and warned that the authorities look determined to send all Afghans — whether documented or undocumented — home.

Afghan workers, Pakistani employers caught 'off guard'

Afghan laborers have a reputation of being cheap, skilled and hardworking. They are also in a vulnerable position due to their living on foreign soil. The mass exodus has now sparked labor shortages in sectors like agriculture and mining in Pakistan's border areas.

"Orders for [undocumented] migrants to leave caught our Afghan workers, as well as us, off guard. Neither were they mentally prepared to go away on short notice, nor did we have any idea of what to do without them," said Jahangir Shah, who owns a coal mine in Balochistan's Duki district.

Afghans make up 60% of Shah's employees. The repatriation effort, according to the mine owner, forced him to briefly suspend mining operations. Even after the work was resumed with extended shifts, production was very slow due to labor shortages. Shah fears production targets will not be met.

"Our bids to return to normal face challenges, especially the unavailability of skilled workers," he told DW, adding that workers from other areas are "not coming in despite offers of better payment."
Trouble for Afghanistan

Pashtuns are the dominant ethnic group in Afghanistan, with millions of them also living in Pakistan. Sardar Muhammad Shafiq Tareen, a Pashtun serving as a senator in Pakistan's Balochistan, warns that almost 80% of workers in the mines and farms across the province were Afghan people.

Deported Afghans cross Pakistan border confused and angry  02:23

The exodus of Afghans will also stop remittances from Pakistan into Afghanistan, harming the latter's economic development, he said. The war-ravaged country is already facing a massive crisis following the Taliban takeover in 2021.

Tareen echoed the concerns of many activists and international organizations, noting that Afghans were given very little time to return to their home country despite spending years or decades on the other side of the border. Speaking with DW, he questioned the Pakistani government narrative that most departures were voluntary.
'Doom scenario' for local mining industry

Various political parties and trader associations have been protesting government policies since October 20 by staging a sit-in in the border town of Chaman. They have opposed visa restrictions in the wake of the anti-migrant clampdown.

Protesters in Chaman rejected the government's decision to boost border controls

Mohammad Usman/DW

Pir Muhammad Kakar, general secretary of the Balochistan chapter of the Pakistan Workers' Federation, pointed out that more than half of Afghans working in the province's mines had left, causing a "doom scenario" for the local mining industry, the largest income generator for the province.

Kakar said mine owners recently met caretaker Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti — himself a Balochistan native — who pledged to ensure that Afghan mine workers aren't unduly bothered. The minister also promised a proper policy to enable the workers to continue their employment, but this promise has yet to be fulfilled, according to Kakar.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic

Decoding China: How Agnes Chow became an enemy of the state

Dang Yuan
12/08/2023December 8, 2023

Agnes Chow is one of Hong Kong's prominent pro-democracy activists. She fled to Canada amid Beijing's tightening clampdown on dissent, and now cannot return.

Agnes Chow became politically active when she was 17, during the so-called Umbrella Revolution in 2014

Vincent Yu/AP Photo/picture alliance

John Lee, Hong Kong's chief executive, served as a police officer in the city for over three decades before entering into politics. During his various stints as a senior official in charge of the territory's security, Lee won the trust of the central government in Beijing and, with its approval, ascended in July 2022 to the post of chief executive, the official title of the head of government of the Chinese Special Administrative Region.

Lee is now personally devoting his attention to an ongoing investigation into pro-democracy activist Agnes Chow. "Unless she surrenders, she will be hunted for life," he said. The announcement immediately received the backing of Beijing.

"We support every effort by the Hong Kong administration and judiciary to fulfil their legal duties and apprehend the suspect," Wang Wenbin, a Chinese government spokesperson, said on Wednesday.

Fight for freedom

Chow celebrated her 27th birthday last weekend, not in her hometown of Hong Kong, but in the Canadian city of Toronto.

She has been studying there since September 2023 and recently announced on Instagram that she would not be returning to Hong Kong to face the criminal proceedings.

"Freedom without fear is priceless," the student wrote. "The future is uncertain, but I don't have to worry about being arrested. I can say and do what I want."

Chow is facing numerous criminal proceedings in Hong Kong, on accusations ranging from endangering state security to undermining the principle of "one country, two systems," which was agreed when Hong Kong returned from British to Chinese rule in 1997.

Exiled Hong Kongers cling to hopes for democracy  03:14

Under the framework, Hong Kong would keep some autonomy and freedoms, as well as a separate and independent judiciary, for 50 years following the handover. Safeguarding this special political arrangement was Chow's primary concern.

"It seems that the governments in Beijing and Hong Kong were not prepared for this step. They are now trying to use Chow as a precedent to intimidate others," said Sophie Reiß, China expert at the Berlin-based research institute MERICS.
Call for genuine democracy

Chow became politically active when she was 17, during the so-called Umbrella Revolution in 2014.

As a secondary school student representative, she took to the streets protesting a decision by Beijing to allow only candidates vetted by the Chinese government to participate in the city's elections.

The demonstrators called for genuine democracy in Hong Kong by reforming the electoral system and holding direct elections, as stipulated in the territory's Basic Law, even though it does not specify the exact time frame for direct elections. The mass protests, however, failed to get Beijing to change its policy.

In 2016, a new party called "Demosisto" was founded in Hong Kong by young activists in the pro-democracy camp.

Chow was then 20 years old and became the newly formed outfit's deputy general secretary. Demosisto was not just a protest party, it adopted a wide-ranging program to fight poverty and promote equality, as well as introduce taxes on vacant apartments and a direct vote to elect the chief executive.

At the beginning of 2018, Chow contested in the by-elections for the Hong Kong Legislative Council (LegCo), which is the territory's legislature. The by-elections became necessary because Beijing had expelled six democratically elected representatives for deliberately falsifying the oath of office and thus allegedly not swearing allegiance to China.

Bounty on Hong Kong activists 04:23

But authorities disqualified Chow, claiming she wasn't a "patriot" as her party did not "honestly" support Hong Kong's Basic Law and the constitution of the People's Republic, even though she had declared support for the Chinese constitution in writing by signing the electoral application.

Criminal proceedings on the mainland

In 2019, the Hong Kong government wanted to amend the Code of Criminal Procedure and proposed an extradition law that would have allowed Hong Kong criminal suspects to be sent to the mainland for trial.

Hundreds of thousands protested against the bill for months. The authorities clamped down on the demonstrators. Due to increasing police violence against the demonstrations, protest leaders, including Joshua Wong and Agnes Chow, called on Hong Kongers to besiege the police headquarters on June 12, 2019.

Several thousand activists responded to the call.

Two months later, Chow was arrested for "incitement to participate in illegal assemblies."

She pleaded guilty. A court in Hong Kong sentenced her to ten months in prison in December 2020.

In total, Chow spent six months and 20 days behind bars. When she left the maximum security prison "Tai Lam Centre for Women" in Hong Kong, she was celebrated like a hero by those waiting for her.

The massive public pressure forced the Hong Kong government to quietly withdraw the proposed extradition bill.

But this success was short-lived.

New security law curbs Hong Kong's freedoms

Not long after the withdrawal of the extradition bill, Beijing imposed a national security law on Hong Kong — a remarkable move by the central government, in apparent violation of the principle of "Hong Kong administration by Hong Kongers."

The national security law criminalizes "secession," "subversion," "collusion with foreign forces to intervene in the city's affairs" as well as "terrorism."

Chow announced her resignation from the Demosisto party on the same day. The outfit was also dissolved at the same time.

"The security law was the decisive step towards ending the idea of one country, two systems," wrote Moritz Rudolf, of the Berlin-based German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). "With the security law, the Chinese leadership is now creating facts. The move comes at the expense of individual liberties and accelerates the spread of socialist legal concepts in Hong Kong."

Hong Kong’s quiet opposition  06:09

"The case of Agnes Chow has received an extraordinary response because a young activist has, to a certain extent, run rings around the Chinese government," said China expert Reiß. "She is drawing international attention to her case and also to the situation in Hong Kong under the national security law, which is unlikely to go down well either in Hong Kong or in Beijing."
Quo vadis?

Agnes was arrested by Hong Kong police in August 2020. She was accused of engaging in "hostile activities with foreign powers" using social media platforms. Her call for foreign sanctions against Hong Kong was cited as evidence. All of this is said to have happened after the security law came into force.

She was released on bail in 2021, after spending more than six months in jail, on the condition she check in with police regularly. She also had to post a bail amount equivalent to about €3,000 and a personal guarantee worth €27,000.

However, Chow said in a recent social media post that she will no longer respect the bail conditions, and will remain in Canada. She pointed to Beijing's tightening crackdown on dissent and protesters in Hong Kong as the reason behind her decision.

Reiß, the China expert, shares Chow's view. "Laws, legal proceedings and personal reprisals are used to put activists under pressure, even those who are abroad," he noted.

"The democracy movement in Hong Kong has largely been suppressed through intimidation, changes to the law and institutional discrimination. At the moment, there is no sign of the situation improving in the foreseeable future."

"Decoding China" is a DW series that examines Chinese positions and arguments on current international issues from a critical German and European perspective.

This article was translated from German.

Baerbock visits Rwanda as Africa's first mRNA factory opens


Germany's foreign minister says Berlin will do its utmost to support vaccine production in Africa as German pharmaceutical company BioNTech opens a vaccine factory in Rwanda.

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock with her Rwandan counterpart Vincent Biruta

Florian Gaertner/photothek/picture alliance



German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock says Africa will have the full support of Germany and the European Union when fighting future pandemics and other diseases.

Her words came as German pharmaceutical firm BioNTech prepared to open an mRNA vaccine plant to help supply the continent when future pandemics such as COVID-19 arise.
What the minister has said

"Diseases do not recognize national borders or continents — our solidarity must not either," the Green Party politician said as she departed for the trip.

"The path to a fair international health architecture is not a short-distance race, but a team marathon," said Baerbock.

"Team Europe supports the goal of Africa's own vaccine production — from concept to needle."

When the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the globe, Baerbock said, the world realized that "no one is safe until everyone is safe."

She said that, especially in Africa, too many people were defencelessly exposed to the virus at the beginning of the pandemic and "that we as the international community literally could not deliver."

"Fair and rapid access to life-saving vaccines must not depend on whether a child is born in Germany or Rwanda," Baerbock underlined.

Africa's first mRNA factory

Only one in 100 vaccine doses administered in Africa is currently produced on the continent — a figure that African leaders hope could be 60 times higher by 2040.

"This is definitely an ambitious goal," said DW correspondent Thomas Sparrow, who's accompanying the foreign minister on her trip to Rwanda.

"It's not only about being better prepared for a future pandemic — it's also about helping to deal with public health issues that are very significant for Africa, such as malaria or tuberculosis," said Sparrow.

The Mainz-based company BioNTech plans to make mRNA-based vaccines for the continent at its plant in the Rwandan capital, Kigali, starting next year.

It could also produce vaccines against malaria and tuberculosis. According to the WHO, 94% of the 249 million malaria cases in 2022 were registered in the continent.

The EU's Global Gateway project will help pay for the enhanced vaccine capacity with €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) by 2027 — of which some €550 million will come from Germany

The same initiative also includes up to €300 billion of investment in the infrastructure of emerging and developing countries over the next few years.

Part of the aim is to secure more global influence for the EU, with the project intended to compete with China's "New Silk Road" project.
What else is planned for the visit?

Baerbock was also due to Rwandan Foreign Minister Vincent Biruta in Kigali, where the pair were to visit a memorial to the victims of the genocide against the Tutsi.

In 1994, Hutu majority militias murdered at least 800,000 members of the Tutsi minority in Rwanda.

Under current President Paul Kagame, Rwanda has become a leader within Africa in many areas, including the fight against corruption, with economic growth well above the continental average.

However, there are criticisms about the persecution of opposition figures and journalists who are critical of the government.

A deal with the United Kingdom for Rwanda to accept migrants who have reached Britain by irregular means is also controversial.

The UK Supreme Court struck down the plan, deeming the country too unsafe.

After arriving in Kigali, Baerbock rejected calls for asylum procedures to be outsourced from Europe.

Baerbock said she was "a bit surprised" that some German conservatives had suggested a similar asylum policy based on the British model.

rc/fb (dpa, AFP)

EU launches probe into Elon Musk's X platform

X, formerly Twitter, is suspected of having failed to counter illegal content and disinformation, an EU commissioner said about the infringement proceedings.

The European Union has launched "formal infringement proceedings" against social media firm X, formerly known as Twitter, Commissioner Thierry Breton said on Monday.

The EU suspects X of failing to counter illegal content and disinformation.

The bloc seeks to regulate big tech companies under new regulations in the Digital Markets Act (DMA), which entered into force in November 2022.

The DMA requires large online platforms and search engines to implement stronger measures to tackle illegal content and public security risks.

"We take any breach of our rules very seriously. And the evidence we currently have is enough to formally open a proceeding against X," said EU Commission Vice-President Margrethe Vestager.
EU takes on social media platforms

In October, Breton accused the firms, X, TikTok and Meta of not doing enough to counter the spread of disinformation following the Hamas' Islamist militant groups attack on Israel.

Hamas is classified as a terrorist organization by the EU, the US, Israel, Germany and several other countries.

In September, European Commission Vice President Vera Jourova said that X was the largest source of disinformation in the EU.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

sdi/fb (AFP, Reuters, dpa)

IRELAND
Irish PM Varadkar 'deeply concerned' by fire at asylum home

Police are investigating a "criminal damage incident by fire" at a site earmarked to house asylum-seekers. Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has condemned the act.

The Taoiseach said the violence had come from a minority of agitators in Ireland

Image: Johanna Geron/REUTERS

Police in the Republic of Ireland are investigating what they described as a "criminal damage incident by fire" that occurred Saturday night at a former hotel earmarked to house asylum-seekers in the village of Roscahill in western County Galway.

Irish Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar on Sunday said he was "deeply concerned" about the incident.

Police said no one was in the facility when the blaze occurred. Ireland's RTE television broadcast video footage of flames partially destroying the Ross Lake House Hotel on Sunday.

The fire followed a rally at the site, with those present opposing government plans to house 70 asylum-seekers in the village.

In a statement, Prime Minister Varadkar said, "I am deeply concerned about recent reports of suspected criminal damage at a number of properties around the country, which have been earmarked for accommodating those seeking international protection here, including in County Galway last night."

Varadkar went on to say, "There is no justification for violence, arson or vandalism in our Republic. Ever."

Last month, the Irish capital Dublin was rocked by far-right rioting after three children were stabbed by an Algerian-born assailant

Brian Lawless/PA via AP/picture alliance

Housing crisis forces asylum-seekers to sleep in tents

Ireland, which is experiencing a housing crisis, has seen opposition to government policies designed to house a record number of foreign asylum-seekers of late, with largely peaceful protests being staged across the country in recent weeks.

The problem has become so acute that the agency responsible for housing asylum-seekers resorted to handing out tents to new arrivals last week.

Though Varadkar has sought to assure citizens that all of those seeking asylum in Ireland are thoroughly vetted and registered, the situation has remained tense.

Last month, the capital Dublin saw a night of massive rioting when far-right agitators torched and looted the city, destroying businesses and public property after the stabbing injury of three children outside an elementary school by a man Irish media had said was born in Algeria — although police did not confirm.

In an effort to convey the scope of the situation, Varadkar said, "Like much of the world, we are dealing with a major step-change in the numbers [of asylum-seekers] arriving here seeking protection. This is driven by war, poverty, climate change and human rights abuses in their home countries."

He added that the recent outbreak in violence across Ireland was to be blamed on "a very small minority," noting that, "The response from many communities has been incredible. We've seen people open their homes, schools, clubs and communities to help those most in need."

js/ab (AFP, Reuters)

Germany: Far-right AfD wins first city mayoral election

Tim Lochner saw off the CDU candidate to become the far-right Alternative for Germany's first city mayor. Under the German mayoral system, some large towns have city mayors.

A candidate from Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won a city mayoral election for the first time on Sunday.

Tim Lochner was elected after winning the second round of voting in Pirna, a town in the eastern state of Saxony where the AfD has been notably strong.

Initial results showed that Lochner had won 38.5% of the vote, the city stated on its website.
Three-way fight

The far-right candidate beat out Kathrin Dollinger-Knuth (CDU), who came second with 31.4% of the vote, and Ralf Thiele, from the small Free Voters party, who got 30.1%.

Lochner, 53, is an independent but decided to stand under the far-right AfD banner for the vote.

In the first round Lochner secured a third of the vote, but was able to increase his share in the second round. The local Greens and Social Democrats dropped out after the first round and threw their support behind the CDU's Dollinger-Knuth.

Tim Lochner has become the first AfD mayor of a German city

Sebastian Kahnert/dpa/picture alliance

Situated 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) southeast of Dresden on the edge of the Elbe Sandstone Mountains, Pirna has around 40,000 inhabitants. The town is known above all for its almost perfectly preserved old town.
Extremist organization

Sunday's result comes just days after the eastern state of Saxony's domestic intelligence agency deemed the AfD as a right-wing extremist party.

Pirna marks the first time the AfD has won a mayorship in a town. In August, Hannes Loth was elected as the first mayor of a municipality — Raguhn-Jeßnitz in the state of Saxony-Anhalt — but this was a region with just 9,000 inhabitants.

In June, the party won its first district council election, with candidate Robert Sesselmann in the Sonneberg district in Thuringia.

The far-right party has been on the rise in Germany with surveys showing around one in five voters saying they would vote AfD, making it the second most popular party after the CDU.

In the eastern German states, the share of voters willing to vote AfD stands at over 30% — ahead of all other parties — with three of those states scheduled to hold elections next year: Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg.

Earlier this month, Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany's main opposition Christian Democrats (CDU), rowed back from comments suggesting his party was open to working with the AfD at the municipal level.

Drones help solve forest carbon capture riddle

Chiang Mai (Thailand) (AFP) – On a hillside overlooking cabbage fields outside the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai, a drone's rotors begin to whir, lifting it over a patch of forest.


Issued on: 18/12/2023 -

Drones are part of an increasingly sophisticated arsenal used by scientists to understand forests and their role in the battle against climate change

 © MANAN VATSYAYANA / AFP

It moves back and forth atop the rich canopy, transmitting photos to be knitted into a 3D model that reveals the woodland's health and helps estimate how much carbon it can absorb.

Drones are part of an increasingly sophisticated arsenal used by scientists to understand forests and their role in the battle against climate change.

The basic premise is simple: woodlands suck in and store carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas that is the largest contributor to climate change.

But how much they absorb is a complicated question.

A forest's size is a key part of the answer -- and deforestation has caused tree cover to fall 12 percent globally since 2000, according to Global Forest Watch.

But composition is also important: different species sequester carbon differently, and trees' age and size matter, too.

Researcher Stephen Elliott and his team use drone photos to make 3D models that reveal a woodland's health and help estimate how much carbon it can absorb 

© Manan VATSYAYANA / AFP

Knowing how much carbon forests store is crucial to understanding how quickly the world needs to cut emissions, and most current estimates mix high-level imagery from satellites with small, labour-intensive ground surveys.

"Normally, we would go into this forest, we would put in the pole, we would have our piece of string, five metres long. We would walk around in a circle, we would measure all the trees in a circle," explained Stephen Elliott, research director at Chiang Mai University's Forest Restoration Research Unit (FORRU).

But "if you've got 20 students stomping around with tape measures and poles... you're going to trash the understory," he said, referring to the layer of vegetation between the forest floor and the canopy.

That is where the drone comes in, he said, gesturing to the Phantom model hovering overhead.

"With this, you don't set foot in the forest."

'Every tree'

Three measurements are needed to estimate a tree's absorptive capacity: height, girth and wood density, which differs by species.

As an assistant looks through binoculars for birds that might collide with the drone, the machine flies a path plotted into a computer programme.

"We collect data or capture (images) every three seconds," explained Worayut Takaew, a FORRU field research officer and drone operator.

Drones offer a way to avoid labour-intensive ground surveys 

© MANAN VATSYAYANA / AFP

"The overlapping images are then rendered into a 3D model that can be viewed from different angles."

The patch of woodland being surveyed is part of a decades-long project led by Elliott and his team that has reforested around 100 hectares by planting a handful of key species.

Their goal was not large-scale reforestation, but developing best practices: planting native species, encouraging the return of animals that bring in seeds from other species and working with local communities.

The drone's 3D model is a potent visual representation of their success, particularly compared to straggly untouched control plots nearby.

But it is also being developed as a way to avoid labour-intensive ground surveys.

"Once you've got the model, you can measure the height of every tree in the model. Not samples, every tree," said Elliott.

The machine flies a path plotted into a computer programme 

© MANAN VATSYAYANA / AFP

A forest's carbon potential goes beyond its trees, though, with leaf litter and soil also serving as stores.

So these too are collected for analysis, which Elliott says shows their reforested plots store carbon at levels close to undamaged woodland nearby.
'More and more precise'

But for all its bird's-eye insights, the drone has one major limitation: it cannot see below the canopy.

For that, researchers need technology like LiDAR -- high-resolution, remote-sensing equipment that effectively scans the whole forest.

"You can go inside the forest... and really reconstruct the shape and the size of each tree," explained Emmanuel Paradis, a researcher at France's National Research Institute for Sustainable Development.

Woodlands suck in and store carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas that is the largest contributor to climate change © MANAN VATSYAYANA / AFP

He is leading a multi-year project to build the most accurate analysis yet of how much carbon Thailand's forests can store.

It will survey five different types of forests, including some of FORRU's plots, using drone-mounted LiDAR and advanced analysis of the microbes and fungi in soil that sustain trees.

"The aim is to estimate at the country level... how much carbon can be stored by one hectare anywhere in Thailand," he said.

The stakes are high at a time of fierce debate about whether existing estimates of the world's forest carbon capacity are right.

The stakes are high at a time of fierce debate about whether existing estimates of the world's forest carbon capacity are right 

© MANAN VATSYAYANA / AFP

"Many people, and I'm a bit of this opinion, think that these estimates are not accurate enough," Paradis said.

"Estimations which are too optimistic can give too much hope and too much optimism on the possibilities of forests to store carbon," he warned.

The urgency of the question is driving fast developments, including the launch next year of the European Space Agency's Biomass satellite, designed to monitor forest carbon stocks.

"The technology is evolving, the satellites are more and more precise... and the statistical technologies are more and more precise," said Paradis.

© 2023 AFP

Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin headed back into space after accident

Washington (AFP) – The American company Blue Origin plans to launch its rocket Big Shepard Monday for the first time since an accident more than a year ago, as the firm founded by billionaire Jeff Bezos heads back into space.


Issued on: 18/12/2023 - 

A Blue Origin rocket takes off in Texas in March 2022 

© Patrick T. FALLON / AFP/File


The launch window from the pad in west Texas opens at 8:30 am local time (14H30 GMT), said Blue Origin, which plans to live stream the event.

This mission known as NS-24 will not carry a crew but rather equipment for scientific experiments, more than half of which Blue Origin has developed in conjunction with NASA.

In the accident in September 2022, the rocket booster stage crashed to the ground, although the capsule part of the spacecraft came down safely with parachutes. There was no crew aboard.

The accident prompted a probe by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which concluded in September 2023 with the finding that the accident was caused by a higher-than-planned temperature of the rocket's engine.

The FAA instructed Blue Origin to make changes to be allowed to resume launches, in particular regarding the design of certain engine parts.

The FAA confirmed Sunday it has approved Blue Origin's application to fly again.

Blue Origin uses its rocket called New Shepard for space tourism flights from Texas.

It has now taken 31 people for short rides into space, including Bezos himself.

The spacecraft is composed of a booster stage and, at the top, a capsule carrying the payload.

In the failed mission known as NS-23, the capsule's automatic ejection system activated, so it floated to the ground safely.

The main stage of the rocket was destroyed when it crashed to the ground, rather than land vertically in a controlled fashion to be reused, as Blue Origin usually does.

Blue Origin is competing in the space tourism market with Virgin Galactic, founded by British billionaire Richard Branson.

But Blue Origin is also developing a heavy rocket called New Glenn, with the maiden flight planned for next year.

That craft, which measures 98 meters (320 feet) high, is designed to take a payload of as much as 45 metric tons into low earth orbit, whereas New Shepard goes to a much lower altitude.

© 2023 AFP

Israel faces mounting outrage over Gaza war

Gaza Strip (Palestinian Territories) (AFP) – Israel faced mounting international pressure Monday over the rising civilian death toll and destruction of hospitals in Gaza, as it pressed on with its war against Hamas militants in the besieged Palestinian territory.

Issued on: 18/12/2023 

The Hamas-run health ministry said an Israeli strike hit Nasser hospital, killing one person and injuring seven others

 © STRINGER / AFP

The United Nations Security Council was set to vote Monday on a new resolution calling for an "urgent and sustainable cessation of hostilities" in Gaza.

The deadliest ever Gaza war began with unprecedented attacks by Hamas on October 7, when the group killed 1,139 people, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250, according to updated Israeli figures.

The health ministry in the Hamas-run territory says more than 18,800 people, mostly women and children, have been killed in Israel's campaign in Gaza. It said dozens were killed in Israeli strikes on Sunday.

Following months of fierce bombardment and fighting, most of Gaza's population has also been displaced and people are grappling with shortages of fuel, food, water and medicine.

Fewer than one-third of Gaza's hospitals are partly functioning, according to the UN, with the World Health Organization denouncing on Sunday the impact of Israeli operations on two hospitals in the north of the territory.
Netanyahu said Israel would 'fight until the end' © Menahem KAHANA / POOL/AFP

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the agency was "appalled by the effective destruction" of the Kamal Adwan hospital, where Israeli forces carried out a multi-day operation against Hamas.

Outside the hospital courtyard, which showed tank and bulldozer tracks, Abu Mohammed, who came to look for his son, stood crying.

"I don't know how I will find him," he said, pointing to the debris.

The Israeli army pulled out of the hospital on Sunday after an operation lasting several days, claiming it had been used as a command and control centre by Hamas.

Israel said that before entering the hospital it had negotiated safe passage for the evacuation of most of the people inside.

Fighting in Gaza © Simon MALFATTO, Sylvie HUSSON / AFP

The WHO also said Israeli bombing had reduced the emergency department at the Al-Shifa hospital to "a bloodbath".

The Hamas-run health ministry said an Israeli strike on Sunday hit Nasser Hospital in southern Gaza's main city of Khan Yunis, killing one person and injuring seven others.

And the ministry said Israeli forces had stormed Al Awda hospital in northern Gaza on Sunday and detained medical staff following several days of siege and bombing.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu again vowed to "fight until the end" on Sunday, promising to achieve the aims of eliminating Hamas, freeing all hostages and ensuring that Gaza will never again become "a centre for terrorism".

Near Gaza's northern border crossing at the Israeli city of Erez, the Israeli army said it had uncovered the biggest Hamas tunnel so far.

An AFP photographer reported that the tunnel was large enough for small vehicles to use.
The large tunnel was displayed by the Israeli army during a media tour © JACK GUEZ / AFP

Israel said the tunnel cost millions of dollars and took years to construct, featuring rails, electricity, drainage and a communications network.

The Israeli army said five soldiers were killed on Sunday, bringing the death toll to 126 in the Gaza Strip since ground operations began in late October.
Calls for truce

The Israeli government has come under growing pressure from the international community to pause the fighting and do more to protect civilians.

The United Nations estimates that 1.9 million Gazans -- around 80 percent -- have been displaced by the war.

"I would not be surprised if people start dying of hunger, or a combination of hunger, disease, weak immunity," said Philippe Lazzarini, head of the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees.
This picture taken during a media tour organised by the Israeli military shows damage to the Erez border crossing between southern Israel and the Gaza Strip after the attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023 © JACK GUEZ / AFP

Gazans have also faced repeated communications outages but on Sunday Gaza's main telecoms firm said mobile and internet service had been gradually restored.

French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna was in Israel on Sunday, where she called for an "immediate and durable" truce.

France separately condemned an Israel bombardment that killed one of its foreign ministry officials in Gaza.

Qatar, which helped mediate a truce last month that saw 80 Israeli hostages exchanged for 240 jailed Palestinians, said there were "ongoing diplomatic efforts to renew the humanitarian pause".

But Hamas said on Telegram it was "against any negotiations for the exchange of prisoners until the aggression against our people ceases completely".

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was in Kuwait on Monday as part of a regional trip that will include stops in Israel and Qatar, which brokered a previous ceasefire deal.
'Daily humiliation'

Israel is also facing calls from the families of hostages, to either slow, suspend or end the military campaign.

There are 129 hostages still in Gaza, Israel says, and relatives again rallied in Tel Aviv to call for a deal to bring them home after the army admitted to mistakenly killing three of the captives in Gaza.

Relatives and friends, including the father Avi (2nd-R), mourn at the funeral of Alon Shamriz, one of three hostages mistakenly killed by Israeli forces in Gaza 

© Oren ZIV / AFP

One hostage already freed, German-Israeli Raz Ben-Ami, 57, spoke of the "daily humiliation, mental, physical", she endured, including having one meal a day and no access to proper toilets.

The conflict in Gaza has also seen violence spiral in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.

The Palestinian health ministry said Israeli forces killed five Palestinians on Sunday morning at a West Bank refugee camp.

Israel's army said air strikes had targeted militants who had endangered soldiers.

Health officials say more than 290 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli forces or settlers in the West Bank since the war erupted.
Syria strikes

Israel carried out air strikes near Damascus on Sunday, wounding two Syrian soldiers, the Syrian defence ministry said.

Israeli forces and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants are exchanging regular fire across Israel's northern border with Lebanon.

Yemen's Iran-backed Huthi rebels, saying they want to pressure Israel, have launched attacks on passing vessels in the vital Red Sea shipping zone, forcing major companies to redirect vessels.

© 2023 AFP

'Financially solid': Hamas revenues set to withstand war with Israel

Paris (AFP) – Hamas has been the focus of a relentless Israeli onslaught in Gaza but with resilient and diverse finances, it is expected to have a significant war chest at its disposal as the conflict drags on.


Issued on: 18/12/2023 - 

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to annihilate Hamas after the militants' unprecedented October 7 attacks

 © GIL COHEN-MAGEN / AFP

Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to annihilate the Palestinian Islamist movement behind the October 7 attack -- the deadliest in the country's history.

The gunmen killed 1,139 people -- most of them civilians -- according to Israel, and took an estimated 250 hostages back to Gaza, where 129 are still believed to be held.

Over the past two months 18,800 people -- mostly women and children -- have been killed by Israeli bombardments in the Gaza Strip, according to authorities in the Hamas-ruled Palestinian territory.

But as Israel pursues its military objective, undermining Hamas's revenue streams will also prove a formidable task.

"Hamas is financially solid," Jessica Davis, president of the Canadian group Insight Threat Intelligence, told AFP.

"In the last decade, if not longer, they have been creating a resilient finance network," she said, explaining the group had set up investments and sources of income in many countries without being disrupted.

These sources include "small businesses and real estate" in countries such as Turkey, Sudan and Algeria, she added.

Hamas also relies on an informal network of donations.

It has become "very good at developing and operating a very complex system of money changers", said Yitzhak Gal, an Israeli expert on the Palestinian economy, explaining the exchanges run through Turkey, the UAE, Europe and the United States.

The number of donors has not necessarily decreased since October 7.

"Despite its atrocities, Hamas seems to have gained support amongst certain population segments internationally as a perceived resistance vanguard," Lucas Webber, co-founder of the specialist website Militant Wire, explained.
'Who will live and who will die'

For years, the group's major backer has been Tehran.

Estimates put Iran's annual contribution at between $70 million and $100 million, through a diverse range of sources that includes payments in cryptocurrency, suitcases of cash and transfers via foreign banks and the informal "hawala" system.

According to Gal, Iranian aid in the form of military equipment was smuggled in years past from Egypt via tunnels dug between Gaza and the Sinai desert, which are now blocked.

Following Hamas' 2006 election victory, and its seizure of power the following year after clashes with rivals, the distinction between money intended for the territory's now 2.4 million inhabitants and the group's own finances has blurred.

"Anything coming in goes into Hamas and they decide who will live and who will die," Gal said.

Of the Gaza Strip's $2.5 billion budget, $1.1 billion comes from the Palestinian Authority, with Israel's agreement, said Gal, who is a specialist at the Mitvim think tank.

The international community funds UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees.

Qatar pays the salaries of civil servants, such as doctors and teachers, and gives $100 per month to the territory's 100,000 poorest families -- totalling $1.49 billion in payments between 2012 and 2021, according to Doha.

- 'One big refugee camp' –

In 2021, the gas-rich emirate, which hosts the Hamas political bureau in its capital with the blessing of the United States, pledged $360 million in annual funding to the coastal Palestinian territory.

Doha has denied providing financial aid to Hamas.

"Without exception, all of Qatar's aid is fully coordinated with Israel, the US government and the United Nations," a Qatari official told AFP.

"All goods such as food, medicine and fuel pass directly through Israel before entering Gaza," they added.

Last week, Qatar's lead hostage negotiator and diplomat, Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi, indicated that the Gulf emirate's funding for Gaza would continue.

In October, Washington imposed sanctions on 10 "key members of Hamas", and the West is considering coercive measures. But cutting off Hamas completely will likely be impossible.

"The prospect of a long term complete destruction of Hamas finances is not realistic," Davis said.

"You can disrupt it, you can take out key players, you can minimise sources of funds, but the network, the infrastructure will always be there and if the group still has supporters, they can be leverage to help them," she added.

Gal explained Hamas' future finances would be linked to how the future of Gaza, a tiny territory wedged between Egypt, Israel and the Mediterranean is resolved.

"When the war stops and normal life resumes, the question will be: will this whole financing system resume or change?" he said.

"Gaza is now one big refugee camp. Who will be in charge of providing food, water and shelters to these refugees, Hamas or another organisation, another mechanism?"

© 2023 AFP