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Wednesday, May 03, 2023

How Canadians Are Losing Medicare

Dr. Susan Rosenthal describes the rise of Canada’s public health system during labor’s rebellious postwar period and the corporate profiteering by which it is now being destroyed.
March 17, 2023
Source: Consortium News


Ontario’s Bill 60 has delivered a potential death blow to public Medicare. If it becomes law, the provincial medical system will no longer operate as a public service but as a profit-taking business managed by the private sector.

While defenders of public Medicare blame Conservative Premier Doug Ford, British Columbia, Quebec and Saskatchewan are going down the same road.

If we hope to reverse this disaster, we need to know how Canadians won Medicare in the first place, and why they are losing it.

World War II saw a global upsurge of labor protest. Union membership more than doubled in Canada, and the number of strikes tripled. During the early 1940s, one-third of all workers in Canada were on strike. To calm the rise in worker rebellion, governments agreed to fund social programs like Medicare.

At the time, Canada had virtually no public medical system. Doctors charged whatever they pleased and bankruptcy from high medical bills was common.

The Canadian Labour Congress pushed for a comprehensive public medical system available to all. The corporate class pushed back, opposing any government control over medicine. Insurance companies feared losing business. Drug companies feared losing profits. And doctors were horrified at the thought of losing their elite status as independent entrepreneurs.

On July 1, 1962, Saskatchewan launched North America’s first government insurance plan to cover hospital care and doctor visits. That same day, 90 percent of Saskatchewan’s doctors went on strike. The doctors’ strike was deeply unpopular and collapsed after 23 days.

The 1964 federal Royal Commission on Health Services suggested a class compromise. For the working class, it recommended government-funded medical insurance. For the business class, it recommended the right to deliver medical services “free of government control or domination.”

Class Compromise


The Saskatchewan Legislative Building. (Stonedan, CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

The business class and the working class have opposite interests. For the working-class, medical care is a human right and a vital necessity. For the business class, healthy profits take priority. This class conflict shapes the quality and accessibility of public programs.

Workers in Canada were strong enough to win public funding for medical care, but not strong enough to kick out the profiteers and win the fully public system they wanted.

The federal Medical Care Act of 1966 was based on class compromise. It established government funding for hospital care and doctors’ visits, while excluding essential medical services such as dentistry, eye care, home care, long-term care and prescriptions. These exclusions enabled insurance companies to continue selling policies to cover such services. (The insurance industry is exempt from human-rights legislation and can legally deny coverage on the basis of a person’s age, past medical history and current state of health.)

Another class compromise was to maintain private-sector control over out-patient care. Doctors were allowed to remain independent contractors charging for each service they provide.

From the start, Canadian Medicare was designed as a two-tier system that gave the private sector room to grow. And grow it did.

Funding Cuts

When Medicare began, Ottawa agreed to pay half the cost of all medical services performed in hospital. This did not last.

In response to the 1970s’ global recession, governments boosted profits by cutting corporate taxes.

Canadian corporations contributed more than half of all tax revenue in the 1950s. Today, they contribute around 12 percent. To offset the loss of corporate revenue, governments cut spending on public programs.

“From the start, Canadian Medicare was designed as a two-tier system that gave the private sector room to grow. And grow it did.”

In 1977, the Trudeau Liberals reduced the federal share of medical funding from 50 percent to 20 percent, forcing the provinces to also reduce their spending. The federal share has varied since then, and currently stands at 22 percent. Less funding for public Medicare enabled private corporations to step in to fill the need.

The 1984 Canada Health Act reassured nervous Canadians that Medicare was safe. Behind the scenes, politicians continued to advance the privatization agenda.

The Drive to Privatize

Business and government view public-sector spending as a drain on the economy. While public facilities can deliver social services more effectively, this costs money. The same services delivered for profit in the private sector make money, and that is seen as a benefit for the economy.

In Caring for Profit (1998), Colleen Fuller documents how plans to open Medicare to the private sector date back to the 1990s’ push to integrate the world economy (“globalization”).

Corporations need a profitable home base on which to grow into global players. Governments provide that base by, among other measures, opening public services to the private sector.

A 1994 Report to the Ontario Ministry of Health advised expanding the domestic for-profit medical industry to help it compete in the global market. The federal government was on the same track. As a 1997 Report for Industry Canada stated, promoting Canadian companies as global health-keepers is the main objective driving the strategies and plans of the government for the medical devices, pharmaceutical and health-services sector.

The Canada Health Act compels government to pay for all medical services provided in hospital. It does not prevent those services from being removed from hospital and handed to the private sector.

Every medical service that can be removed from hospital has been removed or soon will be. The only services left in the public sector will be those too unprofitable to privatize.

Loblaw Companies Ltd. is Canada’s largest food and drug retailer, with more than 2,400 retail outlets across Canada, including its Shoppers Drug Mart subsidiary. Ninety percent of Canadians live within 10 km of one of those outlets, enabling Loblaw to position itself as a major private provider of medical services.

In 2006, Loblaw purchased MediSystem Pharmacy. In 2020, it launched the PC Health app that offers live chats with registered nurses and dietitians. In 2021, it purchased a top chain of physiotherapy clinics. New grocery and pharmacy locations will include clinic spaces and older locations are being retrofitted to offer medical services.

Hospitals themselves are being privatized through Public Private Partnerships (P3s). A P3 hospital is built with public funds and managed by a private corporation. There are more than 50 P3 hospitals across Canada, and the Canadian Council for Public-Private Partnership is pushing for more P3s in medicine, education, transportation and public utilities.

P3s are a prime investment for the private sector. Governments put up the money and take all the risk, while corporations take all the profit. It’s a familiar story: we pay and they profit.

Working Conditions



Doug Ford campaigning in Sudbury during the 2018 Ontario general election. (CC BY-SA 2.0, Wikimedia Commons)

Whenever the private sector take over a public program, we see a consistent pattern of higher cost, lower quality service and deteriorating working conditions. A 2021 report comparing public and private sector workers in Ontario found,Workers in the government sector (federal, provincial, and local) earn 11 percent higher wages on average than their private-sector counterparts.
84 percent of government workers are covered by a registered pension plan, compared to just 25 percent of private-sector workers.
Government workers retire about 2.5 years earlier.
Private sector workers are more than four times more likely to lose their jobs.

Schedule 2 of Bill 60 allows government to reduce spending in the public sector by creating new categories of lesser-skilled, lower-waged medical workers to perform duties currently performed by registered doctors, nurses and medical technicians.

Poor quality working conditions result in poor quality service.

“Governments put up the money and take all the risk, while corporations take all the profit. It’s a familiar story: we pay and they profit.”

For-profit facilities invest the minimum in patient care so they can maximize dividends to shareholders. That is why the Covid death rate in Ontario’s for-profit nursing homes was four times higher than it was in public municipal nursing homes. Yet these same for-profit corporations, who are responsible for the deaths of 4,000 Ontario residents, were granted 30-year licenses and permission to add 18,000 more long-term-care beds.

Burden the Family

Social services distribute the cost of caring across society. Loss of public support for medical care, childcare, home care, disability support and long-term care shifts the burden of care onto unpaid family care-givers, who are mostly women.

Employers generally pay women less because of their family and care-giving responsibilities. When public care is not available, the person with the lowest wage typically stays home to provide it. The result is a vicious circle that traps women in lower-waged jobs and also in the unpaid work of domestic care-giving.

Globally, it would cost $11 trillion annually to provide the socially necessary care that women provide for free in the home. That’s more than triple the size of the world tech industry. The system saves a ton of money, while 42 percent of all women cannot get waged work because of care-giving responsibilities.

British Columbia Family Day 2016.
 (Province of British Columbia/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

The increasing loss of public programs is increasing the need for home-care and for women to be home to provide it. Restricting or eliminating access to abortion is one way to do this.

Women rely on abortion care so they can stay in waged work, support their families and leave violent partners. Loss of access to abortion is driving vulnerable women out of waged work and trapping them in the family.

Growing economic reliance on the family is also driving horrific attacks against trans people, gender rebels, drag artists, cross-dressers — any behavior that challenges traditional family and gender roles.

Damage Control, Not Health Care

It used to be that women could get secure, well-paid, union jobs in the medical industry. No longer. In the 1990s, Ontario adopted a cost-saving, “just-in-time” staffing system pioneered by the auto industry.

In Saskatchewan, hospital managers followed nurses around with stopwatches to track and time every movement, from turning around (one second) to checking supply rooms (three seconds).

“The loss of public programs is increasing the need for home-care and for women to be home to provide it. Restricting or eliminating access to abortion is one way to do this.”

Just-in-time staffing relies more on casual workers than on permanent full-time staff. The result is rising costs, more overtime, more stress-related leave and thousands of nurses leaving hospital work.

Just-in-time staffing crippled the ability of hospitals to respond to the 2003 SARS outbreak and the Covid pandemic. Nevertheless, it is still in use, while governments demand even more cost-cutting measures.

Treating staff as replaceable widgets is stirring systemic violence. So is making people wait too long for the care they need, when they get it at all. No wonder patients lash out in desperation.

Hospitals have become dangerous workplaces where staff suffer beatings, sexual assault and racist attacks every day. In British Columbia, incidents of physical violence directed against medical staff more than tripled between 2015 and 2022.

Medical workers are seven times more likely than manufacturing workers and 45 times more likely than construction workers to be injured from violence on the job. Instead of making work safe, managers post signs warning, “abuse towards staff will not be tolerated.”

When cost-cutting results in fatal medical errors, hospitals are never held responsible for creating conditions that raise the risk of such errors. Instead, individual medical workers are blamed and criminally prosecuted.

A system that violates the health of its workers and those they serve should not be called a “health-care” system. It is a system of damage-control. Employers are free to sicken, injure, and kill workers, and the medical system manages the resulting damage.

Backlog


In The Shock Doctrine, the Rise of Disaster Capitalism (2007), Naomi Klein explained how the business class exploit social crises for profit.

While populations are reeling and disoriented, their economies are pillaged in a capitalist feeding frenzy. Public wealth is handed to the private sector and private debt is transferred to the public sector. A few become fabulously wealthy, and the majority are impoverished. By the time the population recovers, the economy has been looted and the theft sanctioned by law.

When the Covid pandemic overwhelmed public hospitals, governments promised to “build back better.” They did not mean better for the majority; they meant better for the profiteers.

The Ontario government insists that the pandemic-related backlog of more than 200,000 surgeries can be cleared only by doing them in private medical clinics. To promote this transition, the province under-spent its budget on public Medicare and overspent its budget on private clinics.

The public medical system could easily clear the surgical backlog if it had enough staff. In 2022, 158 emergency rooms in Ontario had to close for lack of staff, and hospital operating rooms remain underused for the same reason.

On a per-capita basis, Ontario has the lowest hospital funding, the fewest hospital beds, and the fewest nurses in the country. Fifteen thousand registered nurses and registered practical nurses have left Ontario because of low wages and abysmal working conditions, including the outrageous demand to work while sick during the pandemic.

The province insists that moving hospital surgeries to private clinics will reduce patient wait times. It will do the opposite.

No one can work in two places at the same time. Pulling medical staff away from public hospitals to work in private clinics will decimate the public system. Any reduction in wait times in the private sector will be offset by even longer wait times in the public sector.

To maximize profits, private clinics will do simple surgeries such as cataracts and hip-and-knee replacements, leaving more difficult, complex surgeries in the public system. When clinic surgeries become complicated, patients will be off-loaded to the public system, along with the cost of treating their complications (assuming patients survive the transfer).

The loss of simple surgeries will devastate small and rural hospitals. Complex surgeries were moved to larger centers some time ago. Without income from simple surgeries, smaller hospitals will have to close, reducing access in already under-served areas.

Private surgical clinics will not produce more family doctors. Last year, more than 2 million Ontarians did not have a family physician, 24 percent more than two years ago. The shortage of family doctors across Canada is predicted to more than double over the next seven years. Overwhelmed with patients, some Ontario doctors are offering rapid access to a nurse practitioner, for $30 a month.

The province says patients will not have to pay out-of-pocket in private facilities, but they will.

The Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP) pays only a base rate. To meet shareholder demands for maximum profit, the province allows private clinics to “upsell” by charging patients a fee for premium or upgraded services. While politicians call this “patient choice,” those who cannot pay will have no choice. Those who can pay will be milked.

The push for maximum profit inevitably leads to fraudulent billing. As the Office of the Auditor General warned, the ministry has no oversight mechanism to prevent patients from being misinformed and being charged inappropriately for publicly funded surgeries.

Finally, the Canada Health Act does not compel government to pay for out-of-hospital care, so public funding will be reduced to the absolute minimum, returning us to pre-Medicare conditions.

Which Way Forward?


Downtown Ottawa, 2012. (Tullia, CC BY-SA 3.0, Wikimedia Commons)

How can we stop the profiteers, revitalize public programs and improve working conditions in the public sector?

The Ontario Health Coalition (OHC) is a prominent research and advocacy organization that opposes profit-taking in medicine, lobbies for public Medicare and is mobilizing public opposition to Bill 60.

In 2016, the OHC launched a referendum campaign at 1,000 polling stations in 40 communities across the province. Almost 94,000 people voted, with 99.6 percent demanding that government stop cutting hospital funding and services.

The OHC is launching another referendum campaign to send the government an even stronger message to reject privatization and invest in the public system. Why would this referendum be more effective than the previous one?

Politicians already know that the majority want fully funded public services. A 2022 poll revealed that 92 percent of Canadians oppose funding cuts to healthcare, education, and other social programs, and 88 percent favour a wealth tax to fund these programs.

Public mobilization campaigns are based on the assumption that politicians will respond if enough people pressure them to do so. When such campaigns fail, blame is directed at a presumably uncaring or apathetic public, as recently expressed by one OHC representative.

There may not be a great impact as a result of the referendum, but it will inform Canadians who think they’ve got public health care. That Canadians are just unaware, completely zombie-like in their perspective is a grave misunderstanding. After decades of setbacks and defeats, most people feel powerless to improve things at work or in society. Their lives are getting harder, and they see no way forward.

Politicians lie (the Ontario premier campaigned on a promise not to privatize Medicare). Unions have failed to deliver real on-the-job improvements. And past public campaigns have proved ineffective. Discouraged people need a real win, not more campaigns that raise their hopes and deliver defeat.

No Democracy

Democracy literally means rule of the people. If Canadians lived in a democracy, they would have a fully public medical system, because the majority want it. The fact that they do not have such a system proves they do not live in a democracy.

There is no democracy in the economy. The majority get no say over what is produced, how it is produced, and for whom. The result is toxic pollution, deforestation, species extinction and global warming.

There is no democracy in foreign policy. Canadians did not vote to send troops to Haiti to put down a popular rebellion (again). They did not vote for Canada to sell weapons to Saudi Arabia or build military bases around the world. And they certainly did not vote for World War III.

There is no democracy at work. Workers have no say over what they do or how they do it, even though they know best what needs to be done and how to do it well and safely.

There is no democracy when it comes to spending the social surplus. Canadians do not get to vote on whether to invest in war or in the environment, in police or social supports, or in private or public services.

In a democracy, the business class would be forced to share their profits, which have never been higher.

In 2022, the Shell oil company posted a record profit of $40 billion, more than double what it raked in the previous year. Chevron reported a similar record-breaking profit. You could make $53,000 every single day for over 2,000 years and still not have that much. Nevertheless, every year, Canada gives $4.8 billion in subsidies to the fossil-fuel industry.


Shell station in Canada. (Raysonho, CC0, Wikimedia Commons)

Capitalism is the enemy of democracy. Any form of collectivism (prioritizing public need) is considered a threat to private enterprise, because it is. Premier Doug Ford calls government-funded or socialized Medicare “communism” and privatized medicine “freedom” — freedom for the few to profit at the expense of the many,

Capitalist Dictatorship

Modern technology could enable everyone to vote on every issue that affects their lives and society. However, capitalism is based on depriving the majority of what they need, and who would vote for that? To maintain capitalist rule, people are not allowed to vote on anything that might disrupt the flow of profit.

The entire social system is structured to transfer wealth from the working class to the business class. Every human activity is treated as an opportunity for profit-taking.

“We live in an anti-democratic, authoritarian, capitalist dictatorship. The entire social system is structured to transfer wealth from the working class to the business class.”

The dismantling of Medicare can only be understood in this context. Capitalism is based on the conversion of common property into private property. From the 18th century enclosure of common lands, to the current privatization of public services, capitalists strive to transform what belongs to all into what belongs exclusively to them. Their wealth is built on deprivation and their power on subjugation. Their greatest fear is a working-class rebellion that could end their rule.

Class Power


The quality of public programs does not depend on what the majority want or who they vote for but on the balance of class forces, that is, on which class is using its power to make the other back down.

Decision-makers respond to majority demands only when their power is threatened. When workers exercise power on the job, when they make the bosses back down, politicians get scared and deliver pro-worker reforms in hopes of buying labor ‘peace.’

Canada’s first Royal Commission to study government-funded health insurance was launched in 1919, the year of the Winnipeg General Strike.

Britain’s National Health Service (NHS) was established in 1948 to calm a post-war workers’ rebellion. As a Conservative member of the British Parliament warned, “If you don’t give the people reform, they will give you revolution.”

Canada’s Medicare system was consolidated in the context of rising workers’ struggles that peaked in the Quebec General Strike of 1972.


Picket line during the 1972 Québec general strike.
 (Michel Giroux, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)

Since the mid 1970s, the working class have suffered decades of setbacks and defeats, losing much of what they won in the past, including solid union jobs, the 40-hour week, and robust public services.

The more workers retreat, the more the business class push their agenda, regardless of which political party is in office. The process of dismantling Medicare began in the 1970s and has continued under every form of government: Liberal, Conservative, and NDP (social democratic).

Experience shows that the problems created by capitalism cannot be solved by electing different politicians or parties to office. No matter who is in charge, a social system that is structured to exploit humanity and nature for profit cannot be made to do the opposite — promote the well-being of people and the planet.

Social systems are structured to achieve specific goals. The goal of capitalism is capital accumulation, which it does extremely well. The call to prioritize human need is a call to change the goal of society. This is no easy task. A different social goal requires a fundamentally different social system, one that only the international working-class can construct.

All Strikes are Political

All strikes are political battles over what matters more, human need or corporate greed.

Strikes are not merely means by which workers achieve gains in the workplace. Rather, they are moments in the process by which workers constitute themselves as a class — building solidarity, raising class consciousness, creating their own norms and institutions and discovering their own forms of class power. (Class Struggle Unionism, p.59)

When factory workers reject forced overtime, when education workers demand smaller classes, when nurses demand staff-to-patient ratios and when anyone demands higher wages, they are challenging the primacy of profit, the foundation of capitalism.

The outcome of these battles depends on which class uses their power to make the other back down.

The power of the capitalist class lies in their control over social institutions including the legal system, the courts, the police, and the media. However, the power of the working class is greater.

Workers are the vast majority, and nothing moves without their effort. Stopping work stops the flow of profit. When workers stand together, they can defeat the bosses and make governments change course. To keep workers down, the ruling class must block effective strikes.

Governments justify anti-strike legislation by insisting that strikes are not in the public interest. The opposite is true. Business-as-usual is not in the public interest. Successful strikes raise living standards, which is very much in the public interest.

Playing by the enemy’s rules is a sure way to lose a battle. To strike effectively, workers must be willing to violate restrictive labor laws and make them unenforceable.

After launching a solid, 17-day, illegal strike, Canadian postal workers won the legal right to strike in 1965.

That same year, Ontario hospital workers were denied the legal right to strike in order to hold down the wages of a predominately female, immigrant and under-paid workforce. (This same strategy is still used against public-sector workers.)

“Playing by the enemy’s rules is a sure way to lose a battle. To strike effectively, workers must be willing to violate restrictive labor laws and make them unenforceable.”

In 1981, 13,000 hospital workers across Ontario launched an illegal strike to protest wage cuts and degraded working conditions. They held out for nine days against hospital management, the provincial government, the courts, the police, and the media.

Initially, union officials for the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) opposed the strike. When workers struck anyway, union officials issued a statement of support, but failed to mobilize other CUPE locals to build the strike. Isolated, the strike crumbled in defeat.

Weak Unions


University of Toronto, 2015.
(OFL Communications Department/Flickr, CC BY 2.0)

Why do union officials collapse strikes, as CUPE did recently with the education workers, instead of broadening them? Why did the Ontario Federation of Labour (OFL) surrender to wage-busting Bill 124 instead of mounting a mass public-sector strike to force the province to back down?

While union officials vigorously object to the loss of public services, they refuse to organize the class power of workers to make governments reverse course.


Union officials are committed to bargaining with the business class, not challenging their rule. To protect their relationship with the employer, union officials hold workers back, mounting ineffective strikes that typically end in defeat.

Unwilling to do what it takes to deliver real on-the-job improvements, union officials launch toothless public-mobilization campaigns. Instead of leading class rebellions, they pin their hopes on electing a labor-friendly government that will pass pro-labor laws, meaning, make capitalism work in their favor.

These are safe strategies for union officials. Lobbying campaigns make it appear that they are fighting for workers’ rights, without challenging the social order that violates those rights.

For workers, this has been a losing strategy. The social order must be challenged in order to win meaningful reforms.


Centering Work

Pandemic Physician: one of the doctors in Toronto who joined a protest at the conditions of homeless shelters during the Covid pandemic, April 15, 2022. (michael_swan/Flickr/CC BY-ND 2.0)

Public-pressure campaigns appeal to all social classes to exert moral pressure on authorities to do the right thing. Such mobilizations can be powerful when linked with workplace battles. In the absence of workplace action, they can only threaten to vote for different politicians or parties. An electoral focus limits what can be achieved to what capitalism allows.

Public Medicare could be rebuilt if hospital workers won good contracts that a) pull money back into the public system and b) improve working conditions to attract and keep qualified staff. They cannot do this on their own, nor should they have to.

The labor movement is based on the principle that an injury to one is an injury to all. When any group of workers is attacked, all are at risk. When any group of workers win, it is easier for the next group to win. Workers have tremendous power when they stand together. Fighting separately is a recipe for defeat.

“Workers have tremendous power when they stand together. Fighting separately is a recipe for defeat.”

To build a fighting labor movement that can win real improvements, workers must be willing to challenge the existing order, including defying anti-worker laws. They must be willing to fight together, as a class. That means all-out support for every strike.

All-out support means public-sector workers striking together: medical, education, library, clerical, postal workers, all together. They all have the same employer – the government!

All-out support means public and private sector workers supporting each others’ strikes, not merely in words, but by swelling picket lines and mounting solidarity strikes. A strike that gains momentum day-after-day is the bosses’ worst nightmare. They will concede whatever they must to prevent a workers’ rebellion from growing beyond their control.

Who Can We Count On?

Covid exposed capitalist priorities for all to see. We saw corporations profit from the pandemic while doing nothing to protect their workers. We saw politicians accept millions of Covid deaths instead of legislating paid sick leave and making schools safe. In contrast, we saw ordinary working people risk their lives and those of their loved ones to serve the public.

Who can we count on to protect our public services? Corporations are not required to protect the public interest. Their only legal obligation is to deliver profits to shareholders.

Politicians will not protect the public when doing so means angering the business class and losing corporate donations.

The only people we can really count on are those who work in public services, because their job conditions directly affect the quality of our services.

Who would you rather manage a hospital? Executives and bureaucrats obsessed with the bottom line? Or medical and support staff who actually do the work? I will take my chance with workers in charge, any day.


It is useless to blame the loss of public Medicare on any particular politician or political party. All over the world, people are facing the same problem — a global capitalist system that values profit over human lives. The profiteers are taking everything away from us, and they will not stop until there is literally nothing left.

Last month, a million people marched in Madrid to protest the dismantling of their public medical system. Tens of thousands of nurses in the U.K. went on strike because they know that quality care cannot be delivered without quality working conditions. And in 2021, half of all strikes in the United States were strikes of medical staff.

Power on the job means power in society. A strong labor movement can win strong public programs. The loss of public programs signals a weak labor movement.

Class struggle won public services like Medicare, and class struggle is the only way to win them back. To succeed, workers must not allow the class enemy to dictate what is and is not acceptable. They must exercise their right to fight effectively, and not back down until they win.



Wednesday, April 12, 2023

The Beltway’s Favorite Bogus Budget Model

The Penn Wharton Budget Model, bankrolled by finance moguls, is out to grow its power in Washington.


BY JAROD FACUNDO
AMERICAN PROSPECT
APRIL 10, 2023

ILLUSTRATION BY ROB DOBI
This article appears in the April 2023 issue of The American Prospect magazine. 

American politics often goes like this. A politician proposes ambitious social policy. She’s smacked immediately with a barrage of familiar questions: How much does it cost? How are you going to pay for that? What’s the impact on the economy? Will this stop people from working? Have you considered how this might hurt business?

Those questions, she is told, can be answered by only the smartest economists, who magically all arrive at the same conclusions. They say: We ran the numbers and it doesn’t add up. The costs are too high, and the impact on jobs and growth uncertain. We’re not advocating for policy—we’re just calling balls and strikes, contributing data and knowledge to the debate. Rinse, repeat.

In Washington, a metric ton of policy shops, think tanks, and interest groups advocate for their pet issues, on all sides of the political spectrum. The more inoffensive-sounding their names are, the greater your suspicions should be. The institutions that deny having a political agenda the most are typically the ones most invested in ideological outcomes. And that’s especially true of the self-appointed budget scorekeepers.

One of the most influential players in this space can be found just up I-95 from Washington, in America’s original capital city of Philadelphia. There sits the Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM), a project of the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. Founded in 2016, PWBM has rapidly risen to the top of the pack of outside budget modelers, which run analyses on various policies and release bite-sized summaries of their impacts. You can see its influence across corporate media; its findings are recited as gospel in newspaper headlines, alongside the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates. Combined, they become the prism through which all policy is debated, and lawmakers take notice.

PWBM touts its work as above politics, pointing to instances where Democrats and Republicans alike have disagreed with its findings. That dual-sided criticism gives the organization the ability to posture that it’s a mere truthseeker, not a political animal.

But in a 2020 interview, PWBM’s faculty director, former Congressional Budget Office economist and George W. Bush administration Treasury Department official Kent Smetters, spoke candidly about the model’s deep involvement in the policymaking process. “Policymakers often come to us before they write bills. It’s very clear when our footprint is on those bills, because we give feedback—usually off the record—about what the impacts would be if they try to achieve something one way versus another.”

What’s more, in recent years the Penn Wharton Budget Model has inserted itself further into the corridors of power. In 2020, the organization developed a highly competitive public-policy education program, designed for congressional staffers and other policy professionals. The Prospect obtained documents from the course’s current iteration, which began last October and runs until early May.

Though Penn Wharton has a website dedicated to the seven-month course, several former government officials and policy experts who spoke to the Prospect were unaware of it. Yet they described the course’s existence as emblematic of how interest groups try to ingratiate themselves on Capitol Hill.

At the core, the Penn Wharton Budget Model is a product of the commingling of America’s financial and political elite.

In other words, Penn Wharton consciously and deliberately attempts to set the terms of debate, mainly through heightening fears about deficits, so that any public spending is viewed unfavorably. This helps push policy in a particular direction, one that aligns with the political and financial elites who support and fund the project.

Announcing the creation of the model in June 2016, the former dean of the Wharton School, Geoff Garrett, said, “We’re harnessing the power of information for policy impact and using our analytics expertise to fuel data-driven decision making.” To assuage concerns over politicking, Garrett’s statement added: “We see an opportunity to make a difference at the intersection of business and policy—to help business, legislators and the public make crucial decisions based on rigorous data rather than ideological debate.”

The model, developed by Smetters and former CBO and Treasury officials, had an interactive component, allowing users to download and test specific policies to see the effect on the budget and the economy. A cute animated video beckoned people to get engaged. But the model’s true impact was always pointed toward Washington.

In 2017, PWBM estimated that the Trump tax cuts would increase economic growth, albeit modestly, because they would stimulate private investment. For the record, this did not happen. But the analysis did jump-start the budget model’s rise to prominence. Numerous traditional media outlets highlighted it; then-Vox writer Ezra Klein called the organization “the respected Penn Wharton Budget Model,” at a time when it was barely a year old.

Marshall Steinbaum, an economist at the University of Utah, has a particular familiarity with Penn Wharton. He co-authored a 2017 report for the Roosevelt Institute on the effects to the macroeconomy if the United States implemented a universal basic income (UBI) program. Penn Wharton’s Kent Smetters responded, concluding that no matter how the program was funded, it would result in a lower gross domestic product; that’s economist-speak for “it’s not worth it.”

Steinbaum explained in an interview with the Prospect that the model made two assumptions when analyzing UBI: that increased household income dampens the economy’s labor supply, and that federal budget deficits lead to increasing interest rates. Steinbaum conceded that the Federal Reserve has increased rates lately, but that had nothing to do with budget deficits. “That’s a policy choice,” Steinbaum explained. “Not something that happens automatically.”

The notion that guaranteed income from non-labor activities results in lower labor force participation, Steinbaum said, is a false rationalization for people who believe the welfare state creates a culture of poverty. In fact, one of the citations for Smetters’s analysis was a paper analyzing the labor market effects of the Alaska Permanent Fund, an income-producing social wealth fund for every resident. But the paper concluded that the cash dividend had no effect on employment. Some people on the fringes of the labor market moved from full-time to part-time work, but the impact was not large enough for the original researchers to reach a definitive conclusion. Yet that extraneous result became the basis for Smetters to argue that a nationwide UBI program would have negative macroeconomic effects.
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The Penn Wharton Budget Model leans into the critique that America’s most pressing policy problems are deficits and debt.

The example may seem trivial, because it’s not like Congress is on the verge of passing a UBI for every American citizen. But it matters. Institutions like PWBM and those who rhapsodize about its findings and analyses consider themselves to be the most serious, straight-edged people in the room. Yet if you poke their findings with a stick, they can be just as flimsy as any other pundit’s hot take. These expert conclusions become impenetrable only because of their complex language.

This happens over and over, and across administrations. For example, former President Donald Trump found himself at war with PWBM over his proposed infrastructure plan. Penn Wharton concluded that the $200 billion investment would have no impact on GDP. An independent think tank with actual expertise with transportation, the Eno Center, published a brief deconstructing how Penn Wharton’s analysis was off. But that didn’t matter, because The Washington Post had already run with the blazing headline “The Math in Trump’s Infrastructure Plan Is Off by 98 Percent, UPenn Economists Say,” and the conversation was over.

During the 2020 presidential primaries, Penn Wharton claimed that Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-VT) Medicare for All proposal would reduce GDP by 24 percent over 40 years. This was entirely derived from the fact that the plan “lacks a financing mechanism,” leading the budget model to assume that it would be entirely deficit-financed. A note at the top of the analysis stated that “the long-run impact on GDP varies by as much as 24 percentage points,” or all of the projected loss, “depending on how the plan is financed.” Yet the headlines again did away with the ambiguity, asserting that the model showed that Medicare for All would “decimate” the economy. Potential benefits of the plan, like how workers would no longer be spending out of pocket for insurance premiums, thereby leaving them with additional money that could be circulated through the economy, were not integrated into the analysis.

Along the way, PWBM became a favorite adviser of deficit obsessive Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV), who used its findings as a pretext to stall the social spending measures of the Build Back Better Act. PWBM projected that the total cost estimate would run higher than what the White House predicted, based on assumptions that the package would be permanently extended. The experience of the enhanced Child Tax Credit, which expired at the end of 2021, shows the extreme uncertainty with such a methodology, but it was enough to collapse negotiations. Most of the social spending was eliminated from the final Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).

Manchin got a taste of his own medicine later. When the budget model scored the IRA, it claimed that the bill would have little effect on inflation. Manchin’s response that he disagreed with PWBM further bolstered the model’s reputation as a neutral arbiter. Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) took the opportunity to publish a short press release titled “Manchin Criticizes Budget Model He Once Touted.”

At the core, the Penn Wharton Budget Model is not simply a conservative, or even entirely a Republican, project. It’s a product of the commingling of America’s financial and political elite.

PWBM’s power is derived from its claims to nonpartisanship and its ability to drive its message through the media.

When you trace PWBM’s universe, you find a web of supporters that would make any sane person doubt the model’s supposed nonpartisan stance. Some actors are better than others, but most are cutthroat business executives who have reaped the most from financialization, at the expense of everybody else. They combine with experts from a decade ago who believe that the financial crisis was handled just fine, or that too much was done. Some even had a hand in its creation.

The most benign of the main trio of financial supporters is former Microsoft CEO, and current owner of the Los Angeles Clippers, Steve Ballmer. He’s a public supporter of good data creating good government. His $10 million donation went toward creating USAFacts, a trove of standardized government data—the raw material that fuels the Penn Wharton Budget Model.

The bulk of the rest of PWBM’s funding comes from John D. Arnold and Marc Rowan, who have donated $6.6 million and $50 million, respectively, through their philanthropic organizations.

In recent years, Arnold has become an enigmatic darling in liberal circles for his work on drug pricing reform. His charity, Arnold Ventures, has spent more than $100 million on the issue, supporting the most respected patient advocacy groups. But as the Prospect has previously reported, Arnold was financing a consultant group that pared down the scope of how far drug pricing reform would go.

Aside from drug pricing, his interests extend into public-employee pensions. A 2017 Governing article titled “The Most Hated Man in Pensionland” detailed Arnold’s support for “pension reform,” that is, privatizing pensions. Matt Taibbi’s 2013 coverage in Rolling Stone detailed how, as Arnold funded the Pew Research Center, the organization started publishing reports on the unsustainable costs of public pension systems, while omitting the role played by the financial crisis and its actors. The conclusions were correct enough for a surface interpretation, but hollow in explaining the underlying reasons.

Before philanthropy, Arnold made a career out of destabilizing oil prices, earning the moniker “the king of natural gas.” He started his career on Enron’s trading desk on the West Coast, becoming indispensable before the company’s collapse. During Enron’s collapse, public pensions lost $1.5 billion through their investments in the company. Thereafter, Arnold rose once again in oil trading through his energy-focused hedge fund. A 2006 Senate investigation placed the blame for rising oil prices squarely on figures like Arnold, for their role in manufacturing conspiracies that the world was running out of oil.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model’s largest supporter is Marc Rowan, CEO of the private equity firm Apollo Global Management. In 2018, Rowan and his wife donated $50 million “to attract and retain world-leading faculty.” As a Penn Wharton alumnus, Rowan said he was “honored” to help “Wharton researchers advance and shape their fields.”

Like many private equity firms, Apollo is known for being ruthless, but it has earned a particularly corrosive reputation. Other private equity firms will try to whitewash their own practices by saying things like “We’re not like Apollo.” Co-founder Leon Black tends to catch the most bullets from the media. But Rowan was another co-founder of the firm; he took over the CEO role from Black in 2021.

If you look at the increasing concentration of hospitals, degradation of quality health care services, decreases in employee wages and benefits, and the shutterings of rural hospitals, Apollo is behind those maneuverings. Numerous Apollo-backed firms, from EP Energy to Phoenix Services to Hexion to Chisholm Oil & Gas, have hit bankruptcy in the past few years. Apollo executives helped invent the practice of winning while losing in bankruptcy, stripping assets out of a dying company and avoiding any legal consequences.


Slides from the Penn Wharton Budget Model’s certificate program, a seven-month course designed for congressional staffers and policymakers





The budget model’s assumptions, which push against higher taxes, public investment, and most other things that anger the rich, fit together nicely with the outlook of a financial services industry tycoon or a billionaire CEO.

Financially supporting a project is not an automatic quid pro quo. But for the Penn Wharton Budget Model, the worldview of its funders is not so different from its list of advisers. External advisers include former House Ways and Means Committee member Rep. Allyson Schwartz (D-PA). After public office, Schwartz spent six years leading the Better Medicare Alliance (BMA), an insurance industry–backed front group where she served as president and CEO. Wendell Potter, the former insurance industry insider, has said that BMA’s “raison d’etre is to widen the federal spigot of taxpayer dollars” for directing public money away from traditional Medicare and toward Medicare Advantage plans.

Though there is one moderate tax economist with PWBM, UC Berkeley’s Alan Auerbach, there’s also Gregory Rosston, an economist who studied under Bill Baxter, the “total zealot” who rewrote antitrust merger guidelines under former President Ronald Reagan. Former Obama administration alumni and austerity hawks Peter Orszag and Austan Goolsbee are on the external advisory board as well. To Orszag and Goolsbee’s right, PWBM has former Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), the anti-government conservative who withdrew his nomination to become Obama’s commerce secretary over “irresolvable conflicts” on the scope of the 2009 stimulus package.

Meanwhile, Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), one of the most consistent budget hawk voices in Washington, also serves on the board. CRFB happens to consistently cite the Penn Wharton Budget Model’s findings, as proof of why various pieces of proposed legislation have deleterious effects on the federal budget. CRFB-friendly language about fiscal responsibility and “tough choices,” by the same token, is prominent on Penn Wharton’s frequently asked questions page.

In a 2020 debate with MacGuineas and Larry Summers about federal deficits, Summers, in the nicest way possible, called her economic view of the world idiotic and unsophisticated. “I think Maya’s move to austerity as soon as possible is dangerous and misguided,” Summers said. “I think it’s analytically wrong because it fails to appreciate the big structural changes taking place in our economy.” Summers continued: “If we had the advice that Maya and those like her had consistently recommended from 2010 and onwards, we would have had an even slower than the slowest-in-history recovery since the 2008 recession.”

MacGuineas is of course well compensated to espouse this worldview. CRFB has for years been funded with the fortune of the late Pete Peterson, the co-founder of private equity giant Blackstone and backer of a number of pro-austerity front groups. Peterson spent nearly half a billion dollars in the late 2000s and early 2010s encouraging deficit reduction, particularly through cuts to earned-benefit programs like Social Security and Medicare.

Step deeper inside the Penn Wharton Budget Model maze, and you find its team of experts. It includes the “internationally recognized expert on entitlement reforms” Jagadeesh Gokhale, a Cato Institute and American Enterprise Institute alumnus. His professional work has focused on ways to privatize Social Security. Meanwhile, Cathy Taylor, listed as a “nonresident fellow,” is just an outright Republican activist. She’s the author of Red Is the New Black: How Women Can Fashion a More Powerful America, a book alleging that the Republican Party embodies the values women care about more than the Democratic Party. The book is conveniently not mentioned in her bio on the Penn Wharton site.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model’s certificate program is broken down into six separate sessions. Half of those are electives, selected by those taking the class. Meanwhile, the required classes include “Intro to the Economics of Tax and Spending Policies,” “An Insider View of Policymaking in the White House,” and “How Do Economists Predict the Economic Effects of Policies?”

The Prospect was able to see some of the names of the people inside the course. Most of them were congressional staffers, while others worked for other federal agencies or were policy types not affiliated with the government. Sources told the Prospect that the congressional staffers in the course are typically an even split of Democrats and Republicans. However, this latest cohort had more Democratic staffers than Republican ones, with an ideological range across the caucus, from Squad members to the most conservative.

In the program’s introductory course, an anonymous source described to the Prospect that the instructors emphasized how economists are not concerned with “politics”—which for them was a reference to race, inequality, or gender. Penn Wharton’s Caroline Pennartz said in a statement that PWBM “takes an economic view of public policy rather than a political science or sociological view,” but that studies on their site do incorporate race and gender.

From the very beginning, class participants are drilled with the assumption that all taxes create a loss of efficiency, meaning that any dollar spent toward the government is a dollar never distributed in the economy. This frame of thinking leads one to conclude that hypothetically speaking, a flat tax is actually fairer than a progressive tax system, because such dollars could run further outside of government. (Pennartz said that the course adds the context that flat taxes “are typically perceived as unfair.”)

Notably, the required course “An Insider View of Policymaking in the White House” was taught by conservative Cathy Taylor.

PWBM faculty director Kent Smetters led the final required course, “How Do Economists Predict the Economic Effects of Policies?” Smetters emphasized how the budget model team works closely with lawmakers. “Ninety percent of our time right now is spent on actually just doing private delivery for policymakers who come to us from both [parties],” Smetters said in the lecture. “They come to us typically before they’ve started writing legislation, before they’ve actually introduced something. Relative to the scoring agencies, we’re typically operating on the front end [of policymaking].”

Riffing toward the end of the lecture, Smetters tried downplaying the model’s political influence, but still touted its analytical rigor. He said: “I like to say, [at] the Penn Wharton Budget Model, we’re terrible at politics, good at policy, and we don’t [do] advocacy.”

Other elective lectures included sessions on topics like cryptocurrency, environmental policy, Social Security, antitrust, fiscal imbalances (taught by Jagadeesh Gokhale), prescription drug policy, and others.

The concept of a private institution funded by corporate interests holding classes for policymakers that hew to a particular perspective has an analogue. From 1976 to 1999, the Law & Economics Center at George Mason University held a popular conference for judges, teaching conservative theories about economic efficiency and cost-benefit analysis. According to later research, it had a decided impact on the judges it trained, leading to more conservative rulings. You can see the same potential from Penn Wharton’s indoctrination sessions on economic policy.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model is not necessarily an extraordinary actor in Washington. Different groups have varying degrees of sway over certain lawmakers. Many of them are more narrowly ideologically focused, however; PWBM’s power is derived from its claims to nonpartisanship and its ability to drive its message through the media. Yet it has an implicit motive: Dean Baker, an economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), sees the budget model as one piece of a larger network in Washington pushing the view that budget deficits are detrimental to the economy.

In the world of budget modeling, some lawmakers take the models too seriously, viewing success or failure through the lens of a budget score. One former staffer for Sen. Sanders, Lori Kearns, explained to the Prospect that ideally, models would be only one input a lawmaker considers when drafting policy.

Bringing economics down from the heavens is an almost impossible task. Unconventional perspectives are smeared. And anybody who questions orthodoxies is automatically cast as an ideological partisan. The entire field protects itself with what the South Korean economist Ha-Joon Chang calls an ecclesiastical “language of rulers”—whose entire purpose is to stifle debate. “Once you create this body of knowledge,” Chang said in a 2019 lecture, “you can basically bully other people into accepting your argument because other people cannot understand you.”

The Penn Wharton Budget Model has mastered the language of rulers at a quicker speed than most others. That’s why it has been so successful in its short life span. “The important thing to understand about the Penn Wharton model is that it’s not really supposed to be a model of the macroeconomy. It’s supposed to be a tool by which you could kill progressive policymaking,” Steinbaum said. “So the question [for PWBM] is, what assumptions do you make about how the macroeconomy works such that when you feed a progressive policy into it, it produces a prediction that says it will be bad for the economy?”

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Daughter of Sandy Hook victim rails against Alex Jones in op-ed

"Over time, I began to connect the dots and figured out who this Alex Jones guy was," she wrote


By MEAGHAN ELLIS
PUBLISHED OCTOBER 16, 2022
  
InfoWars founder Alex Jones speaks to the media outside Waterbury Superior Court during his trial on September 21, 2022 in Waterbury, Connecticut. (Joe Buglewicz/Getty Images)

This article originally appeared on AlterNet.

The daughter of the slain principal of Sandy Hook Elementary School has penned an op-ed shedding light on the impact of Alex Jones' perpetuation of conspiracy theories about the mass shooting.

In a piece published by Newsweek, Erica Lafferty, the daughter of Dawn Lafferty Hochsprung, recounted how it felt when conspiracy theorists like Jones began circulating claims about the shooting being a hoax. For Lafferty and family members of other victims, the shooting was anything but a hoax.

"Jones has been in my life for nearly a decade, but not by choice. I was in my late twenties when my mother, Dawn Lafferty Hochsprung, the principal of Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut, was killed on December 14, 2012," Lafferty wrote.

"Within days of the shooting, I heard people online saying it was a hoax; the whole thing had been staged and the families were acting. I just thought: 'How can people be saying this?'"
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After doing her own research, Lafferty was able to learn more about Jones' history of spreading misinformation. "Over time, I began to connect the dots and figured out who this Alex Jones guy was," she wrote. "I realized much of this rhetoric was stemming from the lies and the hate he was spewing to his audience."

She also shed light on the harassment she was subjected to by Jones far-right audience. "The frequency of this harassment depended on Jones and how often he spoke about Sandy Hook," she wrote, "Whenever he spread his conspiracy theories the abuse amped up. There was sometimes a day or two that I would have some peace.

"Then there were months on end where every single day I would be called an actress or accused of making up my own mom. I would be sent pictures of the school or these doctored photos claiming it wasn't even open on the day of the shooting, all of these crazy things. It was constant, I literally couldn't keep up."

To make matters worse, the former principal's bereaved daughter also explained how Jones' actions stifled her ability to grieve. According to Lafferty, the highly publicized nature of her mother's death complicated things but Jones' attempts to dismiss what transpired made things far worse.
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"It was the first time I had ever experienced anything like this. I had grown up in a small town and outside of sporting events I had never even been in the newspaper. So, to have to grieve the murder of my mom in such a public manner was a whole beast in itself. I was never given the opportunity to mourn her in my own way. I was forced to do it on this international platform."

Speaking about the lawsuit, Lafferty wrote, "I think taking legal action against Jones did further open ourselves up to his very extreme audience. I feel like we had to put ourselves out there and continue taking hits from him and his followers in order to take back our lives and stories, but also to protect other people, which I think is the best way I ever could have chosen to honor my mom."


We Should Try to Prevent Another Alex Jones

Oct. 16, 2022
OPINION
ZEYNEP TUFEKCI
Alex Jones outside the courthouse in Waterbury, Conn., in September.
Credit...Kirsten Luce for The New York Times

Opinion Columnist
Zeynep Tufekci's Latest: Dive deep into the internet, technology, politics and society with Zeynep Tufekci's 

Alex Jones achieved the epitome of despicability and now has been ordered to pay for it. His lies — that parents of children killed at Sandy Hook Elementary School in 2012 had been actors taking part in a government plot to manufacture a pretext for stricter gun control — were blatant. He did not subtly deceive through misleading framing or cherry-picked facts. He targeted parents of murdered little children, who faced a barrage threats; at least one family had to flee, moving away from where their child was buried.

Now a Connecticut jury has ordered Jones to pay $965 million in damages to several families for his egregious cruelty, adding to a Texas jury award of $49 million in August to another Sandy Hook family.

Defamation lawsuits can provide some relief to victims of horrendous lies, but they cannot fully repair the damage that has already been done.

For example, many Fox News hosts took to claiming voting machine fraud was a reason that President Biden had won the election. They also often invited guests like Rudy Giuliani or Sidney Powell who asserted the same. After Smartmatic, a company that provided voting systems to Los Angeles County during the 2020 election, sent a 20-page legal letter asking for a retraction of “false and defamatory statements,” some Fox News shows ran fact-checking segments, debunking their own lies. Since then, Smartmatic and other voting machine companies have begun defamation lawsuits against Fox News and others. Meanwhile, the lies are still accepted as fact by many supporters of Donald Trump.

Defamation and libel lawsuits can be misused: Companies or individuals with deep pockets can sue scientists who object to claims about their products or newspapers that expose their wrongdoing, for example. The costs of defending against such claims can have a deterrent and silencing effect. But that’s an argument for better protections against frivolous suits, not against holding liars accountable.

Defamation lawsuits are not an easy path to accountability. Plaintiffs must not just prove that statements were false, but also that they caused harm. In the case of public figures, plaintiffs must prove that the defendant either knew the statements were false or that they showed a reckless disregard for the truth.

But the key issue is, the current media ecology makes it lucrative to lie outrageously.

The extent of Alex Jones’s wealth is opaque, but a forensic economist who testified during Jones’s Texas trial estimated that his net worth, combined with that of Free Speech Systems (the parent company of his Infowars media network), is between $135 and $270 million. Jones put Free Speech Systems into Chapter 11 bankruptcy in August; the Sandy Hook families have challenged the legitimacy of that bankruptcy in court.

Jones got his start in talk radio peddling 9/11 conspiracies to great success. In later years, beyond his own webpage hosting his show, he found a home on platforms like YouTube and Facebook, where he could not only broaden his reach, but benefit from being recommended and amplified by the algorithms that prioritize “engagement” — which has often meant pushing inflammatory, tribalizing or conspiratorial content. Many supporters of Donald Trump were — and are — great fans. One comprehensive study from the Harvard Berkman Klein Center (where I’m a faculty associate) found that before the 2016 election, he was the 13th most shared source on Twitter among then-candidate Trump’s supporters. Between 2015 and 2018, his show averaged about $53 million in revenue annually.

In 2018, after outrage over the way social media sites amplified such content, Facebook, YouTube and Spotify, among other major sites, removed his show. But by then, his machinery was in place and, based on witness testimony and Free Speech Systems’ bankruptcy filing, his company continued making millions of dollars each year.

From what, you might wonder? In 2014, most of his then $20 million revenue came from selling supplements like “Super Male Vitality,” according to testimony Jones gave in a court case. After he was banned from major social media platforms in 2018, he expanded his sales, offering a 50 percent discount for at least one of his alleged testosterone boosters to “push back in the fight against globalist agenda” — a bargain at $34.95. Also available at the time was “Survival Shield X-2 — Nascent Iodine,” which Jones’s website describes as having been developed using “Thermodynamic Pressure Sensitive High Energy Sound Pulse Nano-Emulsion Technology.” A newer version of the product is described as derived from “ancient sea salts” found “thousands of feet below the Earth’s surface” and formulated “with our fellow patriots in mind.” Really, it’s a steal at $19.95, all major credit cards accepted.

During the Texas trial, a producer of his show testified that their online store generated over $165 million in revenue during a span of time encompassing a few months in 2015 and the period from 2016 through 2018, by selling survivalist gear, supplements, what-have-you. The trial also revealed that the families had pleaded with him for many years to stop airing lies about their murdered children, because they faced not just direct threats and confrontations, but people who said they’d defile their children’s graves. According to the families, Jones ignored them as those lies increased product and supplement sales.

One might think it’s just this one con man who found a lot of marks (a lawyer for Jones once called him a “performance artist” who is merely “playing a character”), but others have used the same approach.

Fox News required its workers in New York City to be vaccinated against Covid in the winter of 2021, and at least in the summer of 2021, even vaccinated workers were still required to put masks on in closed spaces with multiple people, You hardly would have realized that from watching all the antivaccine and antimasking content that was routine on Fox News.

Many viewers appear to have paid a huge price for that cynical disparagement of lifesaving vaccines.

A recent study in Nature found that areas with higher levels of Fox News viewership had lower Covid vaccination rates, which are associated with higher hospitalization and death rates. This impact of Fox News was independent of local health care capacity or even partisanship. Plus, much of this effect was concentrated on people younger than 65, who might have thought they were safer from Covid, the study authors noted, and perhaps more open to messages of vaccine hesitancy and refusal.

Even foot soldiers of the movement who sincerely bought into the antivax nonsense, suffered. According to a report from The Boston Globe, at least five conservative radio talk show hosts who campaigned against the vaccines died from Covid-19 over just a few months in 2021.

It’s become so easy to lucratively lie to so many people, and we have few realistic and effective defenses against the harms of deceptions like these, not just to individuals but to our society.

“Good speech” isn’t going to push out lies when viewership is so fragmented, nor is the solution “fact checks” of various levels of quality by institutions already not trusted by many.

There have been campaigns to get major social media platforms to act more aggressively to get rid of liars, but why should we trust them to decide who should be banned? What if political winds shift?

What’s the solution? No society can be constantly pulled at its seams like this and escape unscathed. The recent Jones verdict certainly did some damage to the industry of lucrative lying, and perhaps few are as deserving of this result than he is. But laws written for a different era cannot resolve the problems of our current media ecology.

There are no easy, quick solutions, but perhaps a starting point would be to make it harder and less lucrative to lie to huge audiences. Rather than pursuing legally dubious and inadvisable efforts to ban speech or define and target misinformation, regulations should target the incentives for and the speed with which lies can be spread, amplified and monetized.

One part of the solution might be to target reckless data surveillance online, by greatly limiting how much data can be collected, how long it can be retained, what it can be used for, and how it can be traded. Among other benefits, this could make chasing engagement less attractive as a business model.

There could also be new, careful versions of the “Fairness Doctrine” — which required mass broadcasters that essentially held a monopoly on the public sphere to present broader viewpoints on topics of public importance. It wasn’t a perfect solution, and it could be weaponized, but it recognized that “good speech” can confront bad speech only if there is access to the same audiences. Versions for the 21st century might involve a requirement that when blatant or harmful lies on issues of public importance are amplified, the people who are sent those lies are also sent corrections and further explanations.

But we should also work hard at making the rest of society work much better so that liars can’t do as much damage. I keep coming back to how people over 65 have higher rates of vaccination, despite higher Fox News viewership and some in that age group having a greater propensity to believe misinformation. That’s possibly because they are more motivated to brush off lies in light of the higher risk they face from Covid, but perhaps also because Medicare allows them to have medical providers they trust. Similarly, for example, regulating the supplement industry — a common vehicle for conspiracy and political grift — and having stricter standards on advertising claims might help, too.

The work of civilization is not just discovering and unleashing new and powerful technologies, it is also regulating and shaping them, and crafting norms and values through education and awareness, that make societies healthier and function better. We are late to grapple with all of this, but late is better than never.



The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.

Zeynep Tufekci (@zeynep) is a professor at Columbia University, the author of “Twitter and Tear Gas: The Power and Fragility of Networked Protest” and a New York Times Opinion columnist. @zeynepFacebook

Monday, August 29, 2022

Costlier Medicare Advantage plans do not always offer better quality

Better metrics needed to help consumers make quality-focused choices

Peer-Reviewed Publication

RAND CORPORATION

Enrolling in a highercost Medicare Advantage plan may not always get seniors better quality health care, according to a new RAND Corporation study.

Examining 15 different measures of quality among large representative samples of people enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans during 2016 and 2017, researchers found that plans that charged a higher monthly premium provided on average only slightly better care as compared to plans with no monthly premium.

Quality varied substantially within each premium cost tier studied, with high-quality care being observed among a number of plans in each of the cost tiers. More than 700 Medicare Advantage plans were part of the analysis.

The findings are published in the latest edition of JAMA Health Forum.

“Paying higher premiums is not necessary to receive high quality care from a Medicare Advantage plan,” said study lead author Amelia M. Haviland, a professor of statistics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon University and an adjunct statistician at RAND, a nonprofit research organization. “Seniors should look at metrics other than premium costs alone when looking for a Medicare Advantage plan that offers a high-quality of care, including direct measures of quality, such as Star Ratings.”

Health care costs are a concern for both consumers and policymakers. People enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans report that price measures such as premium costs and co-pays are their primary consideration when selecting a plan.

To examine the link between premium cost and quality, RAND researchers analyzed information about the care delivered to people enrolled in Medicare Advantage plans. About 40% of the enrollees were in plans with no monthly premium, while 6% were in plans with a monthly premium of more than $120.

Medicare Advantage plans provide coverage for hospital and physician services like traditional Medicare fee-for-service, but typically also offer additional services such as coverage for dental care and eyeglasses. In exchange for additional services and lower co-pays, members are restricted to in-network providers. More than one-third of Medicare enrollees choose Medicare Advantage plans.

The information used to measure the quality of care from Medicare Advantage plans included clinical quality measures based on administrative information such as medical charts involving more than 2 million enrollees. Those quality measures included items such as whether patients received recommended cancer screenings, whether high blood pressure was controlled and whether diabetes was treated adequately.

The analysis also examined surveys of more than 168,000 randomly sampled plan participants who were asked about their experiences with health care, prescription drug coverage and their plan. Those measures included the ability to get care, the ability to get care quickly and getting needed drugs.

Across most measures, people enrolled in the two higher-premium plan tiers reported similar or slightly better experiences on average than enrollees in the lower-premium categories. For example, people enrolled in the highest premium tiers were more likely to receive annual flu shots.  

However, on one measure, lower-cost plans offered better care. People enrolled in lower-tiered plans received better care on average for osteoporosis than their peers enrolled in higher-premium plans.

Given that many high- and low-quality plans were found in each of the premium tiers we studied, the premium cost is a poor proxy for assessing the quality of a Medicare Advantage plan,” Haviland said. “Making plan quality information more accessible and salient to consumers is a key to reducing consumers’ costs while improving quality.”

Support for the study was provided by the federal Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services.  Other authors of the study are Sai Ma of Humana, and David J. Klein, Nathan Orr and Marc N. Elliott, all of RAND.

RAND Health Care promotes healthier societies by improving health care systems in the United States and other countries.