Friday, August 05, 2022

ROOMBA CAT TOY 
Amazon to buy vacuum maker iRobot for $1.66B
Fri, August 5, 2022 

Amazon on Friday announced it has entered into an agreement to acquire the vacuum cleaner maker iRobot for approximately $1.66 billion.

The company sells its robots worldwide and is most famous for the circular-shaped Roomba vacuum.

Amazon said it will acquire iRobot for $61 per share in an all-cash transaction that will include iRobot’s net debt of about $275.6 million. The deal is subject to approval by shareholders and regulators.

Upon completion, iRobot’s CEO, Colin Angle, will remain in his position.

Separately, Bedford, Massachusetts-based iRobot reported its quarterly results. Revenue plunged 30% on order reductions and delays, and the company announced it was laying off 10% of its workforce.

Haleluya Hadero, The Associated Press

 

Amazon's connected device cart grows with $1.7 billion deal for Roomba-maker

Fri, August 5, 2022


 Prompts on how to use Amazon's Alexa personal assistant are seen as a wifi-equipped Roomba begins cleaning a room in an Amazon ‘experience center’ in Vallejo

(Reuters) - Amazon.com Inc will acquire the maker of robot vacuum cleaner iRobot Corp in an all-cash deal for about $1.7 billion, in the latest push by the world's largest online retailer to add to its cart of smart home devices.

Amazon will pay $61 per share, valuing iRobot at a premium of 22% from the stock's last closing price of $49.99.

At its peak, the Roomba maker traded at $197.4 as hygiene-conscious consumers invested in premium robot vacuum cleaners during pandemic lockdowns.

Besides sweeping up dirt, the Roomba vacuums that costs as much as $1,000 collect spatial data on households that could prove valuable to companies developing so-called smart home technology.

However, iRobot's second-quarter revenue fell 30% due to weak demand and cancellations from retailers in North America and Europe, Middle East and Africa as consumers rethink how they spend their money during rising inflation.

Analysts have said cash-rich big technology companies could get on an M&A spree, taking advantage of low valuations due to growth pressures. Amazon is sitting on cash and cash-equivalents of over $37 billion as of the second quarter.

Devices make up for a fraction of the overall sales of Amazon, which sells smart thermostats, security devices, wall mounted smart display and had recently launched a canine-like robot called Astro.

In case the deal is terminated, Amazon would be required to pay iRobot a termination fee of $94 million. On completion of the deal, Colin Angle will remain as the chief executive of iRobot.

Amazon is also buying primary care provider One Medical for $3.49 billion, expanding the e-commerce giant's virtual healthcare and adding brick-and-mortar doctors' offices for the first time.

(This story corrects to say revenue fell 30%, not 37%, in paragraph 5)

(Reporting by Akash Sriram and Nivedita Balu in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur)

Greece: Intelligence chief resigns amid spyware allegations



Fri, August 5, 2022 at 6:53 a.m.·2 min read

ATHENS, Greece (AP) — The head of Greece’s intelligence service and the general secretary of the prime minister’s office have resigned, amid allegations of the use of surveillance software against a journalist and the head of an opposition party.

National Intelligence Service director Panagiotis Kontoleon and Grigoris Dimitriadis, general secretary of the prime minister’s office, submitted their resignations Friday, the prime minister’s office said. Both were accepted.

Kontoleon resigned “following incorrect actions found in the procedure of legal surveillance,” the prime minister’s office said, without elaborating on which procedures were incorrectly followed or who the targets of legal surveillance might have been. Under Greek law, a prosecutor is required to sign off on any surveillance.

The prime minister’s office did not give a reason for Dimitriadis’ resignation. A government official said it was “related to the toxic climate that has developed around him. In no case does it have anything to do with Predator (spyware), to which neither he nor the government are in any way connected, as has been categorically stated.” The official spoke on condition of anonymity as the reasons for the resignation had not been announced.

Last week, the head of Greece’s socialist PASOK opposition party, Nikos Androulakis, filed a complaint with the country’s supreme court saying there had been an attempt to bug his cellphone with the Predator spyware.

Androulakis, who is also a member of the European Parliament, said he became aware of the attempt after being informed by the European Parliament’s cyber security service a few days before he filed his complaint on July 26.

“Revealing who is behind such sick practices and for whom they are acting is not a personal matter. It is my democratic duty,” Androulakis had said at the time.

In April, Greek financial journalist Thanassis Koukakis said he had been notified by digital rights group Citizen Lab that his phone had been the target of surveillance by Predator software from July to September 2021. The Committee to Protect Journalists had called for a “swift and thorough investigation ... (to) determine who orchestrated that monitoring, and hold them to account.”

Elena Becatoros, The Associated Press
FINANCE CAPITAL VS CAPEX
Upstream growth takes a backseat as oilsands majors plow billions into buybacks and dividends

Critics say trend that is enriching shareholders and executives will cost the industry and economy

Author of the article: Meghan Potkins
Publishing date: Aug 04, 2022 • 
 
An oilsands worker holds a handful of bitumen. 

Energy companies here are focused on returning money to investors, rather than investing in long-term growth. 

PHOTO BY GETTY IMAGES

Article content

Canada’s oilsands majors are plowing outsized second-quarter profits into buying back their own shares, hiking dividend payments and knocking down debt rather than investing in upstream growth — a trend that could continue over the next decade as companies contend with a number of headwinds to increasing production, according to analysts who follow the sector.

High commodity prices and refining margins have driven record-breaking profits for energy companies in the second quarter of 2022 and, midway through earnings season, Canadian firms have so far elected to return billions in excess cash to investors.

“We leaned into the share buybacks quite heavily in Q2,” said Cenovus Energy CEO Alex Pourbaix on a conference call with investors last week. “I suspect going forward, we will be very much focused on shareholder value and we will go after one of the two of those — (buybacks or dividends) — depending on where we think we’re driving the most advantage for our shareholders.”

Canadian oilsands companies appear in lockstep with global energy firms that are boosting dividends and buying back shares as energy prices have risen amid tight supply and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

CNRL announced Thursday that it had generated approximately $3.3 billion in free cash flow during the second quarter and would be paying a special cash dividend to shareholders of $1.50 per common share on Aug. 31.

Imperial Oil Limited reported a sixfold increase in second-quarter profit Friday and said it had returned some $2.7 billion to shareholders between buybacks and a quarterly dividend — putting the company on track for a second consecutive record-setting year for cash returns.

MEG Energy launched an escalating share buyback program in the second quarter as the company reached a net debt level target of US$1.7 billion, triggering an allocation of 25 per cent of free cash flow to share buybacks. The Calgary-based company has repurchased some 7.24 million common shares for cancellation so far this year and has pledged to return 100 per cent of free cash flow to shareholders once a net debt floor of US$600 million is reached.

Cenovus returned an estimated $1 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends during the second quarter as the company posted net earnings of $2.4 billion. The oil producer also tripled its base dividend during Q2 and has teased the possibility of a variable special dividend.

While the buyback bonanza is popular with the current crop of energy investors, some critics say it enriches shareholders and executives at the expense of long-term growth in production that creates jobs and economic opportunity.


Companies have also come under fire from consumers over prices at the pumps and from a public tired of delays on efforts to decarbonize the sector.

Industry watchers say the current trend of little to no investment in upstream growth is understandable following nearly a decade of depressed prices and volatility that hampered or delayed investments in production — and one that may continue for the remainder of the decade.

“We’ve seen a shift in the mentality of investors behind these companies in terms of almost demanding a focus on prioritization of value over volume,” S&P Global analyst Kevin Birn said in an interview. “And so we see headwinds to being able to sanction incremental investments in upstream and because of that, it results in … less investment than we otherwise would have expected in the price environment we’re seeing.”

A recent report from S&P Global Commodity Insights suggested oilsands production could rise over the next decade by about half a million barrels a day — a substantial increase — but still below previous forecasts. More than four-fifths of the forecasted growth is expected to come from the ramp-up, optimization and completion of projects where some capital has already been invested, the report said.

MORE ON THIS TOPIC

'Time is incredibly tight': New report adds clarity to challenge of cutting oilsands' emissions


Enbridge takes 30% stake in Woodfibre LNG project


'Almost unrealistic': Imperial Oil, MEG, Cenovus ramp up opposition to Trudeau's carbon plan


Contributing to the drag on investment is concern about the likelihood of softening demand for fossil fuels over the long term. Federal policies, including the Trudeau government’s proposed cap on oil and gas emissions, could further cloud the likelihood of investment in the sector, said Birn, who co-authored the report.

“As we look forward we see increasingly ambitious climate policy that translates to higher prices which contributes to uncertainty about the ability of this sector to continue to grow within Canada,” Birn said.

“If you think that the world may be on a course where demand could soften in the near future, or even in the more distant future, you tend to discount the potential for growth from projects that take longer to be brought online then those that are more immediate.”

mpotkins@postmedia.com Twitter: @mpotkins


Canadian Natural Resources profit soars 125%, announces special dividend

Jeff Lagerquist
Thu, August 4, 2022 

A Canadian Natural Resources pump jack pumps oil out of the ground near Dorothy, Alberta, June 30, 2009. CNR is a large Canadian energy producer. 
REUTERS/Todd Korol (CANADA BUSINESS ENERGY)

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO)(CNQ) announced a special dividend on Thursday, adding to a parade of oil sands players doling out shareholder rewards fuelled by strong crude prices.

The Calgary-based oil and gas producer says profit in the second quarter more than doubled from a year ago, rising over 125 per cent year-over-year to $3.5 billion for the three months ended June 30.


Canadian Natural says cash flow from operations topped $5.9 billion compared to $2.9 billion a year ago, as the price of West Texas Intermediate (CL=F) crude averaged US$108 per barrel, up from US$66. After adjustments including dividend payments, the company says free cash flow for the quarter was $3.3 billion.

Canadian Natural says it will pay a special dividend of $1.50 per share on Aug. 31 to shareholders of record as of Aug. 23, double its current quarterly dividend of $0.75 per share.


“Strong execution across the company's operations year-to-date has resulted in substantial free cash flow generation,” chief financial officer Mark Stainthorpe stated in a news release. “As a result, our financial position continues to strengthen, allowing for incremental returns to shareholders.”

Canadian Natural ended the quarter with $12.4 billion in net debt, closing in on its “base level” of $8 billion. Once that target is reached, the company says it will allocate additional free cash flow to its shareholders. Canadian Natural said it paid out about $2.9 billion in the second quarter, including approximately $900 million in dividends, and $2 billion in share repurchases.

Daily production before royalties averaged 860,338 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboe/d) in the quarter, down from 872,718 in the same quarter last year.

Canadian Natural upped its full-year capital spending forecast to as much as $4.9 billion from $4.3 billion. It also raised its production guidance range to between 1,295 and 1,335 mboe/d.

Toronto-listed shares added 0.72 per cent to $67.38 as at 10:31 a.m. ET on Thursday.

Suncor earnings: Q2 profit more than quadruples to nearly $4B


Jeff Lagerquist
Fri, August 5, 2022 

Suncor Energy facility is seen in Sherwood Park, Alberta, Canada August 21, 2019. REUTERS/Candace Elliott

Suncor Energy (SU.TO)(SU) booked a more than fourfold profit increase in its second quarter, driven by higher crude prices as the company's new interim CEO looks to pare down assets, and improve a battered safety record on the heels of worksite deaths.

The Calgary-based oil producer and refiner reported financial results for the three months ended June 30 after the closing bell on Thursday. Suncor says net earnings climbed to $3.996 billion, or $2.84 per share, compared to $868 million in the same period last year.

Suncor says adjusted funds operations topped $5.35 billion in the quarter, the highest in the company's history, as the price of North American benchmark crude averaged US$108 per barrel.

Total upstream production for the quarter was 720,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boep/d), compared with 699,700 boep/d a year ago. Suncor lowered its 2022 production forecast to 740,000 to 760,000 barrels per day from 750,000 to 790,000.

The company cited inflation and required spending on safety improvements as it nudged up its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion, from $4.7 billion.

Suncor's financial performance and safety record have been focal points for U.S. activist investor Elliott Investment Management. Mark Little stepped down as CEO on July 8, a day after the company's 13th worksite fatality since 2014.

"We must acknowledge where we have fallen short and recognize the critical need to drive our safety improvement work with focus and vigour," interim CEO Kris Smith stated in a news release on Thursday.

Under a deal between the two parties, Suncor appointed three new directors and agreed to review the sale of its Petro-Canada gas station chain.

At the same time, Suncor has started a sale process for its UK business, and signed a deal to divest its Norwegian assets for $410 million. In both cases, the buyers are undisclosed. Suncor expects to complete the Norwegian sale in the fourth quarter. In April, Suncor announced plans to sell its Canadian solar and wind operations as it looks towards hydrogen and renewable fuels, seen as more complementary to its core oil and gas business.

Suncor shares added 1.20 per cent to $31.10 as at 7:40 a.m. ET in U.S. pre-market trading. The stock has climbed more than 61 per cent in the last 12 months.


Jeff Lagerquist is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on Twitter @jefflagerquist.


Posthaste: Many bosses are spending almost half their day dealing with staff turnover, survey says


Noella Ovid
Fri, August 5, 2022

Businessman giving resign letter to his manager for quit a job.


Good morning!

Is the Great Resignation over?

Not according to the findings of this survey from California-based business technology firm Kantata.

The study interviewed 1,502 full-time employees and independent contractors in the professional services industry in June.

Forty-three per cent of the full-time employees said they were considering quitting their jobs to become freelancers. The percentage is even larger among younger workers. More than half (52 per cent) of millennial and gen Z employees were considering leaving their jobs to become independent contractors.

Three-quarters of the independent contractors surveyed had been full-time employees last year.

“The findings confirm that the Great Resignation is not just a trend, but a radical and permanent transformation of global workforces,” said Kantata.

It’s also a headache for management.

More than half of the business leaders in the survey (53 per cent) said they were having trouble hiring full-time employees. In fact, the senior executives said they were spending 40 per cent of their day dealing with employee turnover.

Of the reasons identified for the high-turnover, compensation was unexpectedly low on the list. Continuing education towards professional growth ranked more highly.

Above three-quarters (76 per cent) of freelancers stated that they want to work with businesses that provide financial support for their professional growth. This includes paying for certificates, continuing education and masterclasses.

The vast majority of full-time employees agree: 92 per cent said they would be more loyal to corporations that invest in their professional development.

Earlier this year, U.S. academic, Anthony Klotz, who coined the phrase “Great Resignation”, said he thinks resignation rates could stay above average for two or three years as employees adjust to the new ways to working that have emerged from the pandemic.

But those who do leave may not find the new pastures so green.

A survey of 15,000 U.S. workers by Joblist, an artificial intelligence job-search platform, found that more than a quarter of those who left work this year were reconsidering whether they made the right move, Bloomberg reported.

Among those who had found a new job after quitting 42 per cent said that it hadn’t lived up to their expectations.
Canada sheds jobs for second month in a row, central bank seen hiking rates

David Ljunggren
Fri, August 5, 2022

Help wanted in Toronto

By David Ljunggren

OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canada's economy unexpectedly lost jobs for the second month in a row in July after a year-long boom, but analysts predicted that this would not stop the Bank of Canada from hiking interest rates to fight inflation.

Statistics Canada on Friday reported 30,600 positions were shed while the unemployment rate stayed at a record low 4.9%.


The data marked the second consecutive month of relatively moderate losses. Between May 2021 and May 2022, the economy added 1.06 million jobs as the recovery from COVID-19 took hold.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected an increase of 20,000 positions and for the jobless rate to edge up to 5.0%.

The central bank last month surprised markets by raising its main interest rate by 100 basis points in a bid to tackle inflation, and said more hikes would be needed.

Derek Holt, vice president of capital markets economics at Scotiabank, said the July figures were disappointing but predicted Canada's central bank would keep raising rates.

"I think they know full well that fighting inflation is going to break a few things, and one of them will be slowing job market momentum," he said.

The average hourly wages of permanent employees - a figure the Bank of Canada watches closely - rose by 5.4% from July 2021, down from June's 5.6% year-on-year increase but sharply higher than the 2.4% registered at the start of the year.


"That's going to concern the Bank of Canada much more than the job count as evidence of tight markets amid difficulty getting workers," said Holt.

Statscan said there was no indication of increased job churn despite the tight labor market.

The United States, by far Canada's largest trading partner, on Friday reported unexpectedly strong jobs numbers. This helped push the Canadian dollar 0.6% lower to 1.2945 to the greenback, or 77.25 U.S. cents.

The Canadian central bank's next scheduled rate announcement is on Sept. 7, with the August jobs data due on Sept 9.

Money markets have fully priced in a 50 basis point hike and see about a two-thirds chance of a 75 basis point move.

"We're still dealing with the lowest unemployment rate in at least 50 years, and wages that are running strong," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

"I don't believe things are nearly weak enough to call a halt to rate hikes. We had penciled in a 50 basis point rate hike in September and I would say we're comfortable with that call," he said by phone.

(Additional reporting by Ismail Shakil in Ottawa and Fergal Smith in Toronto;Editing by Jan Harvey, Paul Simao and John Stonestreet)

Here's a quick glance at unemployment rates for July, by Canadian city


Fri, August 5, 2022

OTTAWA — The national unemployment rate was 4.9 per cent in July. Statistics Canada also released seasonally adjusted, three-month moving average unemployment rates for major cities. It cautions, however, that the figures may fluctuate widely because they are based on small statistical samples. Here are the jobless rates last month by city (numbers from the previous month in brackets):

_ St. John's, N.L. 6.0 per cent (6.3)

_ Halifax 4.9 per cent (4.6)

_ Moncton, N.B. 4.6 per cent (4.2)

_ Saint John, N.B. 7.8 per cent (7.4)

_ Saguenay, Que. 3.3 per cent (3.4)

_ Quebec City 2.9 per cent (3.0)

_ Sherbrooke, Que. 3.6 per cent (3.4)

_ Trois-Rivieres, Que. 3.2 per cent (3.2)

_ Montreal 4.8 per cent (4.8)

_ Gatineau, Que. 3.5 per cent (2.8)

_ Ottawa 3.5 per cent (3.9)

_ Kingston, Ont. 5.4 per cent (6.0)

_ Peterborough, Ont. 6.1 per cent (6.2)

_ Oshawa, Ont. 4.8 per cent (4.9)

_ Toronto 5.9 per cent (6.1)

_ Hamilton, Ont. 4.3 per cent (4.6)

_ St. Catharines-Niagara, Ont. 4.9 per cent (4.5)

_ Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Ont. 5.1 per cent (5.1)

_ Brantford, Ont. 3.4 per cent (3.9)

_ Guelph, Ont. 3.2 per cent (4.5)

_ London, Ont. 6.1 per cent (5.8)

_ Windsor, Ont. 6.5 per cent (5.4)

_ Barrie, Ont. 5.4 per cent (6.0)

_ Greater Sudbury, Ont. 4.5 per cent (4.3)

_ Thunder Bay, Ont. 4.6 per cent (4.3)

_ Winnipeg 4.2 per cent (4.9)

_ Regina 3.9 per cent (5.2)

_ Saskatoon 4.3 per cent (4.4)

_ Calgary 5.0 per cent (5.5)

_ Edmonton 5.1 per cent (5.9)

_ Kelowna, B.C. 4.0 per cent (4.0)

_ Abbotsford-Mission, B.C. 4.9 per cent (4.5)

_ Vancouver 4.7 per cent (5.0)

_ Victoria 4.3 per cent (4.1)

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 5, 2022 and was generated automatically.

The Canadian Press

U$A

The astounding labor market recovery from the pandemic is complete


·Senior Markets Editor

The U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in July, more than double the number economists had expected.

This staggering increase in employment completes a milestone for the U.S. economy: Pre-pandemic employment is now fully restored.

In February 2020, the last month before the COVID-19 pandemic tipped the U.S. economy into recession, there were 152.504 million people employed in the U.S.

As of July 2022, 152.536 million people in the U.S. were working.

And despite the labor market contraction during the pandemic being the sharpest in modern history, the bounce back marks the second-fastest job market recovery since 1981.

In a little over two years, we've seen job losses that topped 20 million at one point be fully erased.

This recovery stands in stark contrast to the malaise we saw in the labor market following the financial crisis, when it took the better part of a decade for pre-crisis employment levels to be restored.

The full recovery in the labor market also comes amid fears of recession as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates to tamp down inflation, which continues to run at 40-year highs.

Most economists had expected Friday's jobs report would show a moderation in hiring, especially as some labor market indicators have pointed to a slowdown. High-profile cuts from the tech sector have also been seen by many as a proverbial canary in the coal mine for the broader economy.

"The unexpected acceleration in non-farm payroll growth in July, together with the further decline in the unemployment rate and the renewed pick-up in wage pressure, make a mockery of claims that the economy is on the brink of recession," Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, wrote in a note following Friday's report.

In Pearce's view, this report also makes it likely the Fed raises interest rates by 0.75% at its September meeting. This would mark the third-straight meeting the central bank raised rates by this magnitude.

"The July employment report was an absolute knock-out, a major upside surprise relative to my expectations and indeed much of the labor market data released up to this point," Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro, stated in an email. "That said, this jobs report is consistent with an inflationary boom. The Fed has a lot more work to do and in an odd way, that the Fed needs to get more aggressive in pushing up rates, makes the hard-landing scenario more likely."


US employers add 528,000 jobs; unemployment falls to 3.5%


Fri, August 5, 2022


WASHINGTON (AP) — Defying anxiety about a possible recession and raging inflation, America’s employers added a stunning 528,000 jobs last month, restoring all the jobs lost in the coronavirus recession. Unemployment fell to 3.5%, lowest since the pandemic struck in early 2020.

July’s job creation was up from 398,000 in June and the most since February.

The red-hot jobs numbers from the Labor Department on Friday arrive amid a growing consensus that the U.S. economy is losing momentum. The U.S. economy shrank in the first two quarters of 2022 — an informal definition of recession. But most economists believe the strong jobs market has kept the economy from slipping into a downturn.

The surprisingly strong jobs numbers will undoubtedly intensify the debate over whether the U.S. is in a recession or not.

“Recession – what recession?’’ wrote Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, wrote after the numbers came out. “The U.S. economy is creating new jobs at an annual rate of 6 million – that’s three times faster than what we normally see historically in a good year. ‘’

Economists had expected only 250,000 new jobs this month.

The Labor Department also revised May and June hiring, saying an extra 28,000 jobs were created in those months. Job growth was especially strong last month in the healthcare industry and at hotels and restaurants.

Hourly earnings posted a healthy 0.5% gain last month and are up 5.2% over the past year — still not enough to keep up with inflation.

The jobless rate fell as the number of Americans saying they had jobs rose by 179,000 and the number saying they were unemployed dropped by 242,000. But 61,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force in July, trimming the share of those working or looking for work to 62.1% last month from 62.2% in June.

The strong job numbers are likely to encourage the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates to cool the economy and combat resurgent inflation. “The strength of the labor market in the face of ... rate tightening from the Fed already this year clearly shows that the Fed has more work to do,' said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management. “Overall, today’s report should put the notion of a near-term recession on the back-burner for now.''

There are, of course, political implications in the numbers being released Friday: Voters have been worried about rising prices and the risk of recession ahead of November’s midterm elections as President Joe Biden’s Democrats seek to maintain control of Congress. The unexpectedly strong hiring number will be welcomed at the White House.

The economic backdrop has been troubling: Gross domestic product — the broadest measure of economic output — fell in both the first and second quarters; consecutive GDP drops is one definition of a recession. And inflation is roaring at a 40-year high.

The resiliency of the current labor market, especially the low jobless rate — is the biggest reason most economists don’t believe a downturn has started yet, though they increasingly fear that one is on the way.

New Yorker Karen Smalls, 46, started looking for work three weeks ago -- via job sites like ZipRecruiter and Indeed -- as support staff to social workers who serve those with mental health issues.

“I didn’t realize how good the job market is right now,’’ she said shortly after finishing her fifth interview this week. “You look at the news and see all these bad reports ... but the job market is amazing right now.’’ A single mother, she is weighing several offers, looking for one that is close to her home in Manhattan and pays enough to let her take care of her two children.

Recession is not an American problem alone.

In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England on Thursday projected that the world’s fifth-largest economy would slide into recession by the end of the year.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has darkened the outlook across Europe. The conflict has made energy supplies scarce and driven prices higher. European countries are bracing for the possibility that Moscow will keep reducing — and perhaps completely cut off — flows of natural gas, used to power factories, generate electricity and keep homes warm in winter.

If Europeans can’t store enough gas for the cold months, rationing may be required by industry.

Economies have been on a wild ride since COVID-19 hit in early 2020.

The pandemic brought economic life to a near standstill as companies shut down and consumers stayed home. In March and April 2020, American employers slashed a staggering 22 million jobs and the economy plunged into a deep, two-month recession.

But massive government aid — and the Feds decision to slash interest rates and pour money into financial markets — fueled a surprisingly quick recovery. Caught off guard by the strength of the rebound, factories, shops, ports and freight yards were overwhelmed with orders and scrambled to bring back the workers they furloughed when COVID hit.

The result has been shortages of workers and supplies, delayed shipments -- and rising prices. In the United States, inflation has been rising steadily for more than a year. In June, consumer prices jumped 9.1% from a year earlier — the biggest increase since 1981.

The Fed underestimated inflation’s resurgence, thinking prices were rising because of temporary supply chain bottlenecks. It has since acknowledged that the current spate of inflation is not, as it was once referred to, “ transitory.”

Now the central bank is responding aggressively. It has raised its benchmark short-term interest rate four times this year, and more rate hikes are ahead.

Higher borrowing costs are taking a toll. Rising mortgage rates, for instance, have cooled a red-hot housing market. Sales of previously occupied homes dropped in June for the fifth straight month.

Real estate companies — including lending firm loanDepot and online housing broker Redfin — have begun laying off workers.

Before Friday's blockbuster hiring report, the labor market had shown other signs of wobbliness.

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that employers posted 10.7 million job openings in June — a healthy number but the lowest since September.

And the four-week average number of Americans signing up for unemployment benefits — a proxy for layoffs that smooths out week-to-week swings — rose last week to the highest level since November, though the numbers may have been exaggerated by seasonal factors.

“Underestimate the U.S. abor market at your own peril,'' said Nick Bunker, head of economic research at the Indeed Hiring Lab. “Yes, output growth might be slowing and the economic outlook has some clouds on the horizon. But employers are still champing at the bit to hire more workers. That demand may fade, but it’s still red hot right now.''

____

Josh Boak in Washington and Courtney Bonnell in London contributed to this story.

Paul Wiseman, The Associated Press

Jobs report: Economies in recession don’t generate this many jobs, economist says



Fri, August 5, 2022 

RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss July jobs report data, the state of the economy, recessionary risks, and the outlook for the labor market.

Video Transcript

JULIE HYMAN: But we'll get more analysis now from John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist Emily Roland. She is joining us alongside RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas here with us in the studio.

Joe, I want to start with you. Whoa, I mean, I don't know what else to say. This is a really surprising number.

JOE BRUSUELAS: Economies in recession do not generate 525,000 jobs on any given month and don't have 3.5% unemployment rates. Now, doesn't mean that we might not fall into recession. We have a 45% probability of that over the next 12 months. And I think the most likely time is at the turn of the year.

However, it's not happening right now. And I think Brian really nailed the mark there. Federal Reserve is now going to have to follow through. They're going to have to come by with another 50 basis point hike in September. And they're going to likely have to continue hiking that policy rate well into restrictive terrain.

Now, we think it's going to get to at least 3.25% to 3.5%, probably we're talking 4%. Look, this is going to take a while to cool down here. This is where we're at. And I think we all ought to put that recession talk to the side and start addressing the issue, which is the Fed is going to have to remain vigilant, bring down the job gains per month. And this economy is going to have to cool off until we're really out of the woods. And it's going to be a while.

BRIAN SOZZI: Emily, what happened here? Because you're seeing, I think, a stunned market, at least here in the pre-market, seeing tech stocks under pressure. They don't like this report because it probably means a faster pace of rate increases is not good for tech stocks. But what do you think went wrong here?

EMILY ROLAND: Yeah, this is not the kind of jobs report that the Fed wants to see right now. The economy continues to run hot. Unfortunately, one way to get wage growth to cool, which is exactly what the Fed wants, is for the participation rate to go up, meaning there's more supply of workers. And we actually saw the opposite this morning with the participation rate falling a bit at the margin here.

Wage growth pressures remaining elevated. Pretty much everything with this report went wrong for the Fed, even though it is good news for the economy. We've talked a lot this morning about good news is bad news. And we're seeing that priced into the markets.

I'm watching the Treasury yield curve right now. The entire curve is moving up. But the two-year Treasury, which is more reflective of Fed policy, is just absolutely skyrocketing. We went from 305 before the report to 317 as of right now. So the yield curve was inverted. And now it's really inverted. And we know that is a classic harbinger of a recession.

As Joe mentioned, not there yet. We think that there's more things that need to happen before the recession fully plays out. But likely going there with a yield curve this deeply inverted.

JULIE HYMAN: Emily, I got to call you guys out a little bit. I know that you've been big on bonds and chill, buying bonds and chill. Ooh, this hurts a little bit, I guess then.

EMILY ROLAND: Oh, Julie, that hurt so much that you said that.

JULIE HYMAN: Sorry. I

EMILY ROLAND: No, it's OK. These things don't happen in a straight line. And certainly, an element here where we're seeing bond yields rise based on the potential for more aggressive Fed policies. But remember, the Fed is hiking rates into a slowing economy. There is no doubt about it.

You also know we use things like the Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators, which are at 1.4% and falling precipitously right now. We're seeing things like the ISM Index of New Orders, which is our favorite leading indicator, which is now at 48, well below 50, indicating contractionary territory. So something's not right here.

Remember that one of these things is not like the others. There's a bunch of dislocations happening across markets right now. We think Treasury yields ultimately do reprice for an increased likelihood of a recession. But it may take some time.

BRIAN SOZZI: Joe, maybe this is a simple question, but it has to be asked. What is the state of the economy? There are so many mixed reads. We're seeing massive warnings from retailers. We're seeing what looks to be a hot jobs report, other warnings. We're seeing layoff announcements from big companies. This is a confusing time for investors, confusing time for the economy.

JOE BRUSUELAS: Well, this is why you want to reestablish price stability because it's impossible to set prices when you have inflation running rampant like it is. And you get these cross-purposes where the feds are raising rates into an economy that's actually slowing.

If you take a look at real final private demand, it's increasing right around half a percent per annum. That's not what you want. You want a much more stronger rate near 2%. But we're just not there. So you're stuck in the netherworld between no growth and growth that's along the long-term trend. And really, if you want to get into it, you probably want to call it a growth recession.

Now, here's the thing about the inflation. We have a bifurcated economy, right? Economic inequality has been with this for a long time. It's downmarket households that are feeling it. That's why you're seeing the problems at Walmart but not at Amazon. And it's going to depend on which segment you're in, whether you're looking at a company or an industry or even the overall economy.

I know those upper two quintile of income earners that are responsible for 60% of spending-- I mean, think about that, 40% of households are responsible for a little over 60% of spending. They're doing well--

BRIAN SOZZI: So low-income household recession?

JOE BRUSUELAS: Yeah.

BRIAN SOZZI: High-income, they're OK?

JOE BRUSUELAS: Completely right now. That's exactly what you're seeing.

JULIE HYMAN: And of course, Emily, there are implications for the market from that as well, both in terms-- because those upper income households also tend to be the households that are invested in the market, whether through 401(k)s or directly. So how are you thinking about that bifurcation and the implications of it?

EMILY ROLAND: Well, there's a broad trend in place right now where we're seeing big shifts in consumer behavior where consumers are eschewing the things that they want in favor of the things that they need. They might not be buying that big ticket item. But they're still going to turn the lights on and take a shower.

So we're thinking about positioning portfolios more towards those not only higher quality parts of the market, companies that don't need to tap the capital markets in order to remain profitable, companies with great balance sheets and good return on equity. But we're pairing that with more defensive sectors as well, things like utilities, infrastructure-like investments which can see that dependable income coming through as we want to position away from areas that are more economically sensitive, given the slowing economic backdrop.

BRIAN SOZZI: So Joe, does this report put 100 basis point increase in Fed funds back on the table?

JOE BRUSUELAS: No, I'm not going to get in that game. They're going to go 50 basis points. You know why? Because they prepared the market. And they should. Now, after that, maybe instead of slowing to 25, we get another 50 basis point hike. So the super-sized, the really large ones--

BRIAN SOZZI: So no super-sized, so a series of--

JULIE HYMAN: But they prepared the market, but there's a lot of time before the next meeting.

JOE BRUSUELAS: Oh, yeah, there is.

JULIE HYMAN: They have time to re-prepare the market, no?

JOE BRUSUELAS: No, they do. Never let it get in the way of a good story, right? I mean, we're all here, and we have time to fill. No, look.

JULIE HYMAN: [LAUGHS] Such a cynic, Joe! Come on!

JOE BRUSUELAS: The policy rate is going to move deep into restrictive terrain. And I think that's the main takeaway here for the investment community, for forward-looking policy makers, and most important those CEOs and CFOs out in the real economy that are just trying to figure out where to set prices, given where inflation is and how many people to hire and what to pay them. I mean, at the end of the day, that's what this is really about, right?

We have more people getting hired. and we didn't talk about wages yet, by the way. Did you see that? Three-month average hourly pace of average hourly earnings is sitting at 5%. That's right in line with Employment Cost Index. OK, that's probably higher than where we want it. But it's not a wage-price sprial either. So there's a lot more here to be looked at.

BRIAN SOZZI: Emily, do you go or touch tech stocks after a report like this? We saw a bid down lower on the NASDAQ. But this report doesn't exactly set a fertile environment for some of these names.

EMILY ROLAND: Yeah. I would just add, by the way, before I answer that one, I've been refreshing my screen on Fed funds probabilities. And we did just go to the market pricing in 75. There's a 65% chance now of 75 basis points in September. The probability before the report, of course, was for 50 in September.

But so growth stocks and technology stocks are not as tied to rates as a lot of investors think. We've looked at the data. And the relationship's not actually that strong. We have seen it, in recent times, be correlated. But what happens in an economic growth slowdown is you want to own companies that have more durable profitability, have more earnings stability, have more cash on their balance sheets to deploy. And you're actually going to find that in technology companies.

Now, listen, they're not all created equal. So I don't know that I would just buy a tech index. I would think about screening for those more profitable companies and really kind of emphasizing that as a way to play a late cycle environment, which we're firmly planted in now.

JULIE HYMAN: Yeah, at the very least. All right, thanks, so much, guys. We're going to take a break. Before we do, I just wanted to recap some of the jobs numbers here in this big beat here, 528,000 jobs added to the US economy in the month of July. The unemployment rate ticking down to 3 and 1/2 percent, and that robust wage growth accompanying all of this, as Joe just highlighting, up 5.2% year over year. And as we talk about companies hiring and firing and what does the numbers look like, what's the profitability look like--
Unexpected discovery could make story of very early humans 'more real,' scientists say

Rachel Fadem - CNN - TODAY

Research on ancient footprints has previously challenged what’s known about when people arrived in North America, and a new discovery could shed more light on the story.

Scientists have found 88 fossilized prints belonging to adults and children, likely dating back 12,000 years, in shallow riverbeds on the US Air Force Utah Test and Training Range. This is only the second set of human tracks from the Ice Age to be identified in what is now the United States.

Footprints record a specific type of evidence that most people cannot get from other types of archaeological or fossil records, said Kevin Hatala, paleoanthropologist at Chatham University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. He was not involved in the discovery.

“You can understand how large these individuals were,” Hatala said. “You can understand how they were moving. When you see multiple trackways of footprints within the same site, you can start to understand how many people were likely there.”

“Were they likely traveling together or were they moving in different ways?” he added.


Unexpected discovery could make story of very early humans 'more real,' scientists sayDaron Duke shows visitors footprints discovered on the Air Force's Utah Test and Training Range.
 - R. Nial Bradshaw/U.S. Air Force

The fossils can offer important insight on present-day populations as well, said Daron Duke, principal investigator for the research and archaeologist for the Nevada-based Far Western Anthropological Research Group.

“It also connects the people ancestral to the area to the finds,” he said.

An inadvertent find

The discovery occurred somewhat by accident, according to Duke and Tommy Urban, a research scientist at Cornell University in New York.

Duke and Urban were searching Utah Test and Training Range in early July for remnants of purposeful prehistoric campfires, which were used by ancient humans as a source of light and heat. As they were driving around the Air Force base and talking about what fossilized footprints look like, Urban noticed one and the men stopped to inspect the print. After further examination, they identified dozens more in the area.

At first, they were unsure the footprints had been made by humans. But after several days evaluating the tracks’ size, shape and stride length, the researchers determined they were the work of barefoot human adults and children. While the archeologists are still working to confirm the age of the footprints via radiocarbon dating, they believe the tracks are 12,000 years old based on the previously dated sediment layer beneath them, and the fact that the prints were exposed to the surface around the same time as artifacts found to be 12,300 years old, Duke said.

Additionally, the freshwater wetlands needed to preserve the prints have not existed in the area for at least 10,000 years.

In 2021, scientists used radiocarbon dating to find that 61 footprints discovered in 2020 in White Sands National Park in New Mexico – many belonging to teenagers and young children – were 21,000 to 23,000 years old. This would mean that humans inhabited North America during the Pleistocene era, or Ice Age, around 7,500 years earlier than previously thought.

“Once I realized that (the Utah tracks) were barefoot human footprints, it was very exciting,” said Urban via email. “I had been working on footprints at White Sands for the previous five years, so it was astounding to think that we had just stumbled onto a second White Sands.”

Going forward, the researchers need to preserve and protect the Utah prints and find out who the prints belonged to and when exactly they are from, Duke said.

A distant human connection

The find is an exciting one for the field of archaeological research, said David Madsen, an archaeologist at the University of Nevada-Reno. He was not involved in the discovery.


Unexpected footprints discovery could shed light on lives of North America's earliest humansThe researchers are working to preserve and learn more about the prints. - R. Nial Bradshaw/U.S. Air Force

“Now that we have this human element, the story of the very early people becomes more real. There’s more funding available, there’s more interest in it, there’ll be more recovery,” Madsen said.

The location of the latest footprint discovery is near a site in northwestern Utah where researchers found numerous human artifacts in 2015, including stone tools and the earliest evidence of human tobacco use in the world. The relics date back to around the same time the prints were made.

The proximity of the sites and the fact that the evidence is likely from the same time period tells archeologists a greater story about the people who may have inhabited the area during the Ice Age, Duke said.

Additionally, learning more about the prints may offer a better understanding of the Indigenous population in the western US.

There are 21 Indigenous communities in the region, and people from these communities are helping the researchers in the examination of the footprints.

“Their perspective, presence and understanding is invaluable,” said Anya Kitterman, the Air Force Base’s cultural resource manager, in a news release. “Our shared human history and stories are what truly unites us and it’s been an unbelievable experience to walk beside those who have gone before.”

Alberta shelves minimum wage panel report without releasing recommendations

Michelle Bellefontaine - 11h ago

The Alberta government shelved a report from an expert panel it appointed to examine the effects of a $15 minimum wage and a possible lower wage for tipped servers.


© Justin Tang/Canadian PressIn 2019, an expert panel was tasked with looking at whether tipped servers could make more money if their hourly wage was lower.

The panel, chaired by Joseph Marchand, a University of Alberta economist, was appointed in August 2019 by Jason Copping, who was Alberta's minister of labour at the time.

The panel submitted its report in February 2020, right before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but the document was never made public.

"Our government has received and reviewed the work of the minimum wage expert panel. Due to the economic effects of COVID, the changing labour market and inflation, much of the report is no longer relevant," Roy Dallmann, press secretary for Labour Minister Kaycee Madu, told CBC News in an email.

Alberta Labour has no plans to release the report, and the provincial government will maintain the $15 minimum wage, Dallmann said.

The expert panel — which cost the provincial government about $24,492 — was a reaction to the former NDP government's decision to raise the minimum wage in October 2019.

Groups representing restaurants and small businesses criticized the government at the time, suggesting it was moving too quickly and the initiative would cost jobs.

The United Conservative Party promised in its 2019 campaign platform that it would form a minimum wage expert panel, if voted into power.

The panel would have two tasks: study the potential effect of the wage bump on the labour market, and determine whether food and liquor servers would make more money from tips if they were paid a lower hourly rate.


Alberta used to have a lower minimum wage for servers until the former NDP government eliminated it in 2016.


It isn't known if the expert panel's report recommended restoring the lower wage rate.


The panel member included Mark von Schellwitz, vice-president of Restaurants Canada, an organization that has advocated for a reduction in the server minimum wage.

Von Schellwitz told CBC News he could not say what the panel recommended because he is bound by a non-disclosure agreement.

He said, however, lower wages allow restaurant owners to afford to give servers more hours, which allows those employees the opportunity to earn more tips.

Opposition NDP leader Rachel Notley said the Alberta government needs to make the expert panel report publicly available.

"Albertans have a right to see the report. They paid for it," she said, adding the recommendations could provide insight into what a UCP government may try to implement if the party wins the next year's provincial election.

The government instituted a $13 minimum wage for youth in June 2019 because it believed higher wages were dampening youth employment rates.

The lower rate had no effect on how many young people got jobs, Notley said.

7 in 10 Ontario nurses say they can’t provide adequate patient care, study says

A new study finds that nearly seven in 10 nurses in Ontario cannot provide adequate patient care with almost half saying they are considering leaving the profession for good.

A recent WeRPN (Registered Practical Nurses Association of Ontario) survey is raising the alarm over its findings that patient care is being critically compromised due to “staffing shortages and the standardization of unsafe workloads.”

The survey found that 68 per cent of nurses say they do not have enough time or resources to properly care for patients.

Sixty-six per cent said they’ve had to take on more patients with higher patient-to-nurse ratios.

READ MORE: ‘A nurse can’t be everywhere’: Ontario health care staff shortages prompt ER closures

The survey was conducted in May 2022 and called “The State of Nursing in Ontario: A 2022 Review” and polled more than 760 RPNs across the province. It was a follow-up study from December 2020 to measure the conditions of the provincial health care system through the perspectives of nurses.

It also found 86 per cent of nurses surveyed said they have been asked to take on more shifts or overtime to cover staffing shortages.

When it comes to workplace atmosphere, the study also found that moral distress is up and mental health has been impacted.

Four in five nurses (79 per cent) said they are experiencing moral distress on the job as they feel what is ethically correct to do differs from what they are tasked to do. This is up from 68 per cent reported in the 2020 survey.

The same number of nurses (four out of five) also reported “reaching their breaking point” at their job. The study found 94 per cent of nurses said they experience “increased stresses from their daily work.”

READ MORE: Staffing issues at Toronto hospital lead to critical care bed alert

Although unchanged from the 2020 survey, nurses reported a significant mental health toll. Eighty-six per cent of nurses said their mental health is hurting because of the work they do and 67 per cent said they do not feel they have enough mental support.

Pride in nursing plummeted, according to the survey, which reported only 36 per cent said, “they had never been prouder to be a nurse.” In the 2020 study, the figure was 67 per cent.

What’s more, nearly one in two nurses, or 47 per cent, are now considering leaving the profession. This has jumped significantly from 34 per cent reported in the 2020 survey.

“The #1 catalyst for this is wage dissatisfaction. An overwhelming majority of nurses (91 per cent) believe they are not fairly compensated for their role as an RPN,” the study said.

As well, one out of three RPNs working in long-term care said they will leave the sector.

“I believe these findings will shock the public,” said Dianne Martin, chief executive officer of WeRPN. “Alarmingly, this is now being normalized.

NDP Leader Singh calls on Liberals to fix Canada's health-care system amid "national crisis"
Canada's NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh called on Justin Trudeau and the Liberals on Thursday to take action to fix Canada's health-care system, in what he called a "national crisis."

Thu, August 4, 2022