Sunday, May 05, 2024

Michelangelo: The Last Decades review – feels close to a religious experience

Rachel Cooke
Sun, 5 May 2024 

Will glue you to the spot… Michelangelo’s Epifania, 1550-3 (detail). © Trustees of the British MuseumPhotograph: © The Trustees of the British Museum


The final section of the British Museum’s exhibition Michelangelo: The Last Decades is circular and enclosed. The walls are black and the light low. The feeling is of being in a small chapel: if a person was to speak in this space, they would surely whisper – though my instinct was for absolute silence. The work on display here, made in the last 30 years of the artist’s long life, is so far beyond the meaning bestowed by words, and even if it wasn’t, who could improve on those of Michelangelo himself? By the door is one of his poems, dated 1554 (on loan from the Vatican library, it is gorgeously translated by James Saslow). “The voyage of my life has at last reached/ across a stormy sea, in fragile boat,” it begins. It acknowledges that the moment of “accounting” is imminent. It speaks of a soul that may no longer be calmed by the material. Death is engraved on its author’s every waking thought.

The sketches of the crucifixion in this room are exquisite, of course, their beauty and tenderness only deepened by the fact that the artist’s hand is now less steady, his sight possibly fading. But there’s something else as well: a numinosity that radiates outwards, like heat. These drawings are as much prayers as they are pictures, each one a bead on a rosary. Over and over, the artist works away with his black chalk, moving ever closer to the truth as he sees it. In Crucifixion with the Virgin and St John the Evangelist (c1555-63), Mary presses her cheek against Christ’s naked thigh. Her body half curled, her hand resting on her chin, she seems in her bewilderment and her sorrow more child than mother. It is one of the most daringly intimate depictions of the crucifixion I’ve ever seen, and for all that I’m more or less entirely godless these days, it brought me almost to tears.

This is a big exhibition that feels, in the best way, small (I was amazed to read later that it includes more than 100 items), perhaps because it is the heart, as much as the eyes, that guides you through its eternal twilight. Some things you will wilfully ignore; I was nearly oblivious to the sumptuous, jewel-bright paintings of Michelangelo’s collaborator Marcello Venusti. Others will hypnotise you, your feet stuck to the ground before them as if with glue; it takes a full five minutes to get even half a fix on the British Museum’s own Epifania (1550-3), the only surviving complete cartoon (a full-scale preparatory drawing) by Michelangelo, which is more than two metres high and on display for the first time since its conservation in 2018.

I could, I think, stare at Study of a Man Rising (about 1534-36) for an hour – a day! – and not tire of it, though its anatomical precision (the artist used a life model) is not precisely the point. These shoulder blades and upper arms, their rippled sinews almost kinetic in effect, are a metaphor for creation itself (“So God created man in his own image…”). I looked at them and thought of a brook, fast water rushing over smooth stones. And beyond such treasures, the curators give us storytelling of the highest order, Michelangelo’s voice ever in our ear. The show’s leitmotifs are friendship (with Tommaso de’ Cavalieri, the younger man who would be at his bedside when Michelangelo died in 1564, aged 88, and with Vittoria Colonna, the poet and religious reformer), the artist’s faith (deep and abiding) and his late-life fear, and together they make a genius seem very human and close-by.

In September 1534, when he was 59, Michelangelo moved back to Rome from his native Florence, Pope Clement VII having ordered him to a paint a Last Judgment on the altar wall of the Sistine Chapel (it was in its cause that the life study above was made). This would have been a daunting prospect in any event. Frescoes are hard labour, and he must have feared this new work would be unfavourably compared to the chapel’s ceiling, completed two decades before. But there was also his mood. “Now on the right foot and now on the left,/ shifting back and forth, I search for my salvation,” he wrote in a poem for Colonna of 1538-41. Michelangelo’s devout Catholicism was a mixed blessing: a source both of comfort and dread. And some part of him, too, must still have been wondering how best to respond to the Reformation. I’m not a theologian, but I would say this accounts for the temerity of his crucifixions. He makes his case, and it is inarguable.

Yet matters of doctrine, however important, aren’t everything here. What of his character? If Michelangelo is thin-skinned and difficult, he’s also passionate and fond. I relished the moments when the life of a working artist, all ladders and brushes and demanding patrons, appeared as if from a (possibly rather bad) biopic. A design for a fancy salt cellar came about because The Last Judgment was eating up so much of his time – he hoped it would placate the Duke of Urbino, who was impatiently urging him to complete his long-awaited tomb for Pope Julius II – while a scribbled note in the corner of The Resurrected Christ Appearing to His Mother (1560-63) is a reminder to contact a courier. When he is harried and overburdened like this, affection begins to mingle with your awe, even if it doesn’t temper it. By the time you reach the chapel-like recess at the exhibition’s end, you want to light a candle for him: a votive offering; a vow not to forget that he was a man as well as a god.

Opinion

Britain’s greatest living conductor has fled to Berlin – it’s a loss to us all

Simon Heffer
Sat, 4 May 2024 

Simon Rattle with the Berlin Philharmonic in 2004 - United Archives GmbH / Alamy Stock Photo

Simon Rattle is perhaps Britain’s greatest living conductor. He achieved eminence at an age when many in his profession are struggling to feed themselves, becoming assistant conductor of the Bournemouth Symphony Orchestra at 19, and joining Glyndebourne the following year. 

He was still only 25 when, in 1980, he was appointed conductor of the City of Birmingham Symphony Orchestra. He became principal conductor of the Berlin Philharmonic in 2002, and then music director of the London Symphony Orchestra in 2017. Now he is back in Germany, conducting the Bavarian Radio Symphony Orchestra.

Rattle has not lacked critics. Some musicians have questioned his interpretations of the classics, and he caused upset on the eve of his departure for Berlin by attacking the British attitude to culture and to public funding of the arts. His appointment in Berlin was mildly controversial. It was made by a vote of the orchestral players, a substantial minority of whom wanted Daniel Barenboim in the role. 

Rattle’s achievements in Berlin, notably his championship of new music, were considerable, but it took several years for the orchestra to get used to him. The conductor himself described his relationship with the players as “turbulent”. However, he was doing something right: in 2008 the orchestra decided not to wait until 2012 to renew his 10-year contract, but did so at once. 

One reason for his growing popularity was that he ensured the orchestra was better paid, and that it was controlled by a foundation rather than by the Berlin Senate. He also set up an education department, renewing a commitment to young musicians that had been the hallmark of his time at Birmingham.

In his long career, he has shown a catholicity of taste; this was seldom more visible than in his recent tenure of the LSO. Part of his legacy there is captured on a new disc in the LSO Live series, which contains recordings of three works by Benjamin Britten.

To my mind, Rattle’s golden age as a recording artist coincided with his time at Birmingham – the repertoire included some fine recordings of British music, a canon the Germans in particular seem not to recognise exists. He recorded numerous works by Britten with the CBSO, not least the explosive Sinfonia da Requiem, a piece that defines the composer’s genius. An equally outstanding account of that work is on the LSO Live disc; it is worth buying for that alone.

However, it also includes the only performance of Britten’s Spring Symphony that I have heard that matches, and in some respects exceeds, the recording made by the composer himself more than 60 years ago. Rattle creates a clarity, intensity and, eventually, exuberance that are utterly mesmerising. The disc ends with a performance of The Young Person’s Guide to the Orchestra that richly demonstrates Rattle’s command of his players. Any admirer of Rattle, and indeed of Britten, should own this recording.

BRITAIN
No borders, no nations, no deportations



SUNDAY 5 MAY 2024, BY TERRY CONWAY



In a major show of May Day solidarity, several hundred protestors in Peckham, South London managed to block the removal of a coach load of asylum seekers to the prison barge, the Bibby Stockholm. The barge, where an Albanian man killed himself last December and which is also thought to be warehousing torture victims, is expected to be a staging post to Rwanda – despite the fact that it is understood flights are not yet ready to try.


The raid came less than a week after the Tory’s notorious Rwanda Act finally received royal assent on 25 April after the House of Lords attempts to water down the bill finally ran out of steam. Perhaps more tellingly, it came the day before many local and mayoral elections in England. (There were no elections in Scotland on 2 May, and in Wales only elections for Police and Crime Commissioners.) Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was determined to try and stem the tide of support bleeding away from his chronically failing government by focusing minds on his determined anti-immigration stance.

On Sunday 27 April, the government had announced the Home Office would launch “a major operation to detain asylum seekers across the UK in preparation for their deportation to Rwanda”, some weeks before they were expected to act. While immigration raids have been standard part of the British state’s “hostile environment” long before the Rwanda legislation was agreed, there was no doubt that this was an escalation and one happening with the electoral timetable in mind. Campaigners also received information that some asylum seekers were receiving notices mentioning possible removal to Rwanda.

Activists responded quickly through existing networks mainly built in the wake of the Black Lives Matter movement and the fight against the repressive Police Bill. Stalls were organised near immigration reporting centres to reach as many asylum seekers as possible and inform them, in a variety of languages, that despite recent legal changes, they do still have some rights. At the same time messages went out widely on social media alerting a wider network of people that they might be called on at short notice to block a removal.

For seven hours protestors blockaded the road outside the hotel where the asylum seekers are currently housed, with calls for additional bodies going out throughout the day. At 3pm the coach finally left – empty. Forty-five activists were arrested. Meanwhile campaigners in Portland Dorset where the barge is moored are also keeping a close eye to block any further arrivals.

But while May Day was a victory for international solidarity, on Friday 3 May at least two other raids took place in different parts of London – in Hounslow and in Croydon. At the former, the coach was delayed for some time by activists but they were not able to prevent people being taken away in the end. It is not clear what happened in Croydon since the initial call out, but no doubt there will be increasing calls for action on the streets in the weeks ahead.

This is what solidarity looks like, as those fleeing the destruction capitalism has wrought to their homes are subject to yet further inhuman treatment.

For further information see the Migrants Organise website.

5 May 2024

P.S.

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DIRK BOGART

Victim 1961

A prominent lawyer goes after a blackmailer who threatens gay men with exposure (homosexual acts still being illegal). But he's gay himself..

FULL MOVIE

SCOTLAND

Funding pulled for hyperbaric chamber that has served divers for 50 years          

Divers exploring the waters off Oban now have to travel to Aberdeen if they require treatment following closure of the Dunstaffnage facility.

Hyperbaric chamber in Oban opened in the 1970s.


Caitlin Hutchison

A hyperbaric chamber that has served the diving community on the west coast of Scotland since the 1970s has had its funding pulled.

The facility at Dunstaffnage near Oban has treated over 400 divers for decompression illness over the years – but now patients will have to travel to Aberdeen if they are to receive treatment for a condition that can result in paralysis or even death.

The wrecks and reefs in the waters near Oban make the area a mecca for diving enthusiasts. But another big draw for divers is the state-of-the-art hyperbaric chamber – one of only three in Scotland and the only NHS registered chamber on the entire west coast.

It saved Jessica Giannotti’s life ten years ago after a diving accident that left her gravely ill.

She told STV News: “My suit filled with air and I was shot to the surface. It was in the middle of a storm and I had to swim for 45 minutes to shore.

“I was quite scared because I thought I was having some sort of neurological illness and I felt like I was losing control of my body.

“I lost my balance, I couldn’t speak properly, I was just terrified in that moment but luckily I was treated at the hospital. They called me an ambulance and it took me straight away to the chamber.

“After two treatments, I started writing my name again, I could control my body, my bowels, I could start walking properly.”

The most severe cases of decompression sickness can result in paralysis or even death – so speedy treatment is crucial.

But with services at Dunstaffnage currently shut down after NHS Grampian withdrew funding, divers who become unwell now face a journey to Aberdeen.

Since it opened in the 1970s, more than 400 people have been treated at Dunstaffnage, and while the number of patients may be relatively low, the local diving community has serious concerns about the major impact that any potential delays to treatment could have.

Jonathan Sayer-Mitchell, director at Tritonia, a firm that undertakes underwater research and development, said: “Diving at work regulations recommend two to six hours for time to a chamber, so if we were operating on Mull or Tiree, or one of the outer isles, to get to Aberdeen in less than six hours is going to be a challenge.

“So there’s potential legal implications for the diving companies, there’s potential health implications for the divers.”

Companies like North West Marine, who provide professional diving services to a variety of businesses in the area, are now having to reassess.

Tony Ratcliffe, managing director at Jifmar Scotland, which owns North West Marine, said: “One of the things that we’re looking at is establishing our own chamber here to give chamber cover in the area to our divers.

“We’re looking into the costs but it’s probably going to be in excess of £500,000 – we don’t really want to go down that line.

“We were very happy with the service at the chamber at Dunstaffnage and to us it’s a big loss.”

NHS Grampian says there are well-established transport links in place to manage transfers to Aberdeen.

But with more than 10,000 signatures on a petition calling for the decision to be reversed, pressure on the health board is mounting.


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UK
How special forces chief 'blew the whistle on SAS war crimes in Afghanistan': 
Top officer 'told police soldiers under his command were murdering prisoners of war - despite fears of threats to his family'
DAILY MAIL
PUBLISHED: 5 May 2024

A high-ranking officer in the British special forces told police the SAS were committing war crimes by murdering prisoners in Afghanistan, it emerged today.

Known only as N1466 the officer risked the safety of his family when he claimed 'cancer had infected' a particular unit of the SAS.

Between 2009 and 2013 he was responsible for all SAS overseas operations- meaning he focused on British military activity in Afghanistan.

According to a Sunday Times investigation the officer tipped police off about a safe which held a dossier of evidence from a SAS soldier detailing allegations of murder.

The officer's actions caused a massive inquiry with 6,000 classified documents being disclosed by the Ministry of Defence.



Within the files are witness accounts from serving soldiers, emails to Number 10 warning of the crisis, as well as diares of police investigators.

Foreign Secretary David Cameron was the Prime Minister in the years the allegations relate to.

Detectives from the Royal Military Police- which investigates allegations of wrongdoing within the Forces- kept diaries alleging a covering up operation.

Within their notes investigators said weapons were allegedly planted on the bodies of the deceased and a raft of top-secret computer files relating to the SAS were deleted.

Johnny Mercer, Conservative MP and then a Defence Minister, wrote in emails that he believed the SAS was guilty of wronging during the war.

But a civil servant toned down Mr Mercer's email arguing 'bland is best'.


Johnny Mercer is a veteran of Afghanistan and served as a Defence Minister from 2019-2021


Members of the Afghan Special Forces units CF 333 and ATF 444 – dubbed the Triples – fought alongside the SAS (File image)

The inquiry was eventually shut down- but subsequent stories by The Sunday Times and the BBC put pressure on the government to open up a fresh inquiry.

This is called the Independent Inquiry relating to Afghanistan and documents released from this revealed to the newspaper the decision by N1466 to make his claims.

In the raft of emails, letters and documents released, a lieutenant colonel wrote: 'I find it quite incredible the amount of Bs [Afghan males, Bravos] that [the SAS unit] send back into a building who then decide to get weapons/grenades and engage the [SAS unit] knowing that it will achieve nothing.'

In certain emails relating to a particular raid commanders stopped calling victims EKIA, meaning enemy killed in action- and changed to EJK- extra-judicial killings.

While the Chief of Staff said: 'There appears to be a casual disregard for life, [military] principles and credible reporting.'

SAS raids were often completed late at night and were susposed to target bomb makers and terrorists.

But emails allege civilians were killed and then had weapons planted on them to make it look as though they were combatants.

The Afghanistan Inquiry, chaired by Sir Charles Haddon-Cave, is looking at whether there is any evidence to support claims the British Army unlawfully killed people in Afghanistan between 2010 to 2013.

Sir Charles Haddon-Cave chair of the Independent Inquiry relating to Afghanistan

A Ministry of Defence spokesperson said: 'We established the Independent Inquiry relating to Afghanistan which is investigating alleged unlawful activity by UK Special Forces during Deliberate Detention Operations between mid-2010 to mid-2013. The MOD is fully committed to supporting the Inquiry as it continues its work.

'It is not appropriate for us to comment on allegations which may be within the scope of the Statutory Inquiry, or speculate on outcomes. It is up to the Statutory Inquiry Team, led by Lord Justice Haddon-Cave, to determine which allegations are investigated.'
Leeds sculpture to celebrate city's notable women

\Jules ListerThe names of 384 women will be inscribed on the sculpture

Almost 400 inspirational women have had their names engraved on a sculpture due to be unveiled in Leeds this summer.

Ribbons, designed by Pippa Hale, will celebrate women past and present who have contributed to the city.

The work, to be unveiled in July, will consist of five metal ribbons displaying the names of 384 notable women chosen by the public.

The project was developed by Leeds West MP Rachel Reeves, working with the city council and art university.

Among the women featured are former Olympic boxer Nicola Adams and social reformer and suffragist Isabella Ford.

Also included are women who have dedicated their lives to helping others, such as Tina Suryavansi who runs Homeless Hampers, and Rebekah Wilson who set up the charity Zarach to address child poverty in Leeds.

Jules Lister  The new artwork will be unveiled in July

Ms Hale said she was "truly honoured" to be a part of the project.

She added she had been "humbled" by the stories of the nominated women.

"From women who have broken glass ceilings and overcome cultural, social, economic and physical barriers to rise to the top of their professions, to those who fly beneath the radar and whose contribution is neither seen nor recognised publicly.

"Ribbons is a massive thank you to all of them whose love, friendship, commitment, passion and dedication impact our lives every day."

Ms Reeves said the sculpture was a "chance to honour inspiring women from all walks of life".

"After launching this project several years ago, it's incredibly exciting to be that much closer to seeing Pippa's amazing vision come to life," she said.

Jules Lister
The sculpture will honour women from "all walks of life", Leeds West MP Rachel Reeves said

A Leeds City Council review of statues carried out by Alison Lowe and published in 2020 highlighted the lack of diversity in public sculpture in Leeds and included Ribbons in an action plan to address this issue.

Ribbons will be located at the top of the gardens between Leeds City College's Quarry Hill campus and Leeds Playhouse at the gateway to the SOYO development at Quarry Hill.

The project is supported by LeedsBID, Caddick Developments, Leeds Civic Trust, the Liz and Terry Bramall Foundation, the Henry Moore Foundation and the Leeds Playhouse.

Last week was tough for UK Tories, but Starmer cannot let his guard down yet


The local race results provided a blueprint for what Brits can expect in the general elections ahead



THE NATIONAL

Starmer has projected a persona of 'modest competence' as opposition leader. AFP

Keir Starmer faces his trickiest period having now entered the prime minister presumptive phase in charge of the British opposition. One thing will haunt him for the weeks ahead. Sheffield, 1992.

It was there the catch cry was send out: “We’re alright.” Interpreted as an act of triumphalism, it fell flat as an eve of polling celebration. With one hand on the trophy, it is best to concentrate on getting over the line, not already savour possession.

Rishi Sunak can appreciate the small margins that make up political catastrophe or not after local elections in the UK last Thursday. The outcome was a disaster for Mr Sunak but not, it appears, such a calamity that the Conservatives will rebel and chuck him out. Survival was the first order of business.

One incumbent survival of the mayor of Tees Valley Ben Houchen was enough to generate a victory headline for Mr Sunak. Subsequently worn away by the loss of London and the West Midlands, it still blunted the head of steam behind the rebels on his own side.

The experts projected share of the vote was Labour 34 per cent and Conservative 25. Good if you compare it to YouGov’s 44-18 gap between the two parties.

The extended drama around Andy Street eventually losing in the West Midlands provides a platform for continued rebel manoeuvres. The Conservatives won slightly more than 500 seats and lost slightly below that number.

If the Conservatives wanted a lifeline, here we go. They have a "backs to wall" narrative to pave a path to the general election.

In the first instance Mr Starmer, already a cautious political performer, will be haunted by the example of Neil Kinnock, his predecessor who was cruising to victory in 1992.

Not for a moment can Mr Starmer let his guard down. Mr Kinnock once recalled that rally at Sheffield where he let it slip it away. It was just a week before the election and, by Mr Kinnock’s telling, the gaffe came about by accident.


A new choreography for the event had been decided at the last minute. Mr Kinnock later told the BBC he should have put his foot down but went along with the new plan.

Having his senior colleagues march into the 11,000 arena through the crowd energised the room into a rally. And then his efforts to bring the crowd to order came across as an engorged gloat on the TV screens of the nation.

”There was a sort of tangible political heat coming off it, I guess that looked triumphalist, and I cursed the person - I knew who he was - and I took him aside afterwards and gave him a few choice remarks for changing those arrangements," Mr Kinnock recalled in 2017. "So instead of modest competence, which is what I wanted to portray, and most of the campaign did, we had this entry into the arena."

Modest competence is exactly Mr Starmer’s offer to the UK. It is also the lifeline that Mr Sunak is seeking to pursue as well.

For Mr Sunak in 2024 read John Major in 1992. He, too, was holding together a divided party reeling internally from leadership heaves.

A struggling economy is another common factor more than three decades on.

It is too late for a general election as far away as November to be about anything other than dividing lines like migration and the policy on Palestine-Israel

The incumbent prime minister is married into a billionaire family. Yet he has a Barbour jacket plainness that creates the smallest possible target for the opposition to hit, especially compared to the radical rivals who are jockeying to oust him on his own side.

Mr Major had his soapbox that he plonked in village squares as he led a backs to the wall comeback. Mr Sunak can take the local election results as a corner turned, whether or not it really has the seeds of a rescue.

Going to the people means taking control of the agenda and attempting to paint the Labour narrative as victory already .

The vulnerabilities are the rise of Reform from the right to attract Conservative votes and the independents on the left, most motivated by Gaza and the Labour leadership policy, who now have time to coalesce. No one is suggesting these forces will have an equal effect but George Galloway could be as much part of the general election and Nigel Farage and his flunkies.

It is too late for a general election as far away as November to be about anything other than dividing lines like migration and the policy on Palestine-Israel. For the Conservatives the last 10 days of the local election campaign were the blueprint. The news agenda was dominated by forced deportations to Rwanda and a sense of an urgent rally against despicable influx.


Mr Starmer’s crawl along the knife edge ridge that leads to power must be built to withstand the ugly and ruthless pitch to the country that his rivals will make. That’s even with Mr Sunak at the helm.

It must also demonstrate the vigilance that Mr Kinnock forfeited for one fateful moment. The man in Barbour jacket will be there to capitalise on any mistake. Call it grubbing for every vote. Nothing else matters.

Despite the state of the nation, there is a knock down fight ahead that will give no clue on how the country should shift direction for better times ahead.

Published: May 05, 2024


Damien McElroy
 is London bureau chief at The National

SNP to retain just 15 seats with Labour set to overtake in Scotland, poll says

It also says John Swinney is the popular choice as next first minister for Scotland.


PA Media
MSP John Swinney at the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh, after he became the first candidate to declare his bid to become the new leader of the SNP and Scotland’s next first minister.


The SNP will retain just 15 of its current 43 seats at the forthcoming general election, according to a new poll for the Sunday Times.

The forecast comes as Humza Yousaf announced his resignation as First Minister on Monday after he abruptly ended the Bute House Agreement with the Scottish Green Party.

The Sunday Times poll, by Norstat – formerly known as Panelbase, is one of the first of its kind since Mr Yousaf announced his resignation, and looked at voting intentions for both Westminster and Holyrood.

It found that while support for independence remains largely unchanged, Labour is set to overtake the SNP at both Westminster and Holyrood, bringing an end to the SNP’s streak of four consecutive election victories.

The survey comes as John Swinney is now expected to become first minister on Tuesday, provided no other challengers enter the race.

When asked who would make the best first minister from a list of SNP candidates, Mr Swinney and Kate Forbes were neck and neck with the public on 23%, although Ms Forbes has said she will not be standing.
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Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, was backed by 7%, and Jenny Gilruth, the Scottish education secretary, scored just 2%.

The SNP vote share in a Westminster election would fall to its lowest level since the 2014 independence referendum, the poll says.

The party would hold just 15 of its 43 seats with Scottish Labour winning 28 – a dramatic increase from its current two.

According to the Sunday Times poll, the SNP would attract votes from 29% of the electorate – a fall of three points in a month, while Labour’s share increased by two points to 34%.

This would return 15 SNP MPs and amount to a significant reversal in electoral performance.

Under Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP became the third largest party at Westminster, winning 56 of 59 Scottish seats in 2015.

There are currently 43 SNP MPs at Westminster.

The Scottish Conservatives, whose vote share remained at 16% in the poll, would add three seats to return nine MPs – while the Liberal Democrats, on 8%, would boost their yield by one to five MPs.

Support for independence remains evenly balanced, with 48% in favour of Scotland leaving the UK and 52% backing the Union.
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Voting intentions at Holyrood show the SNP remains a point ahead of Labour in the constituency vote at 34%.

The Conservatives would pick up 14% of the vote, the Lib Dems 9% and the Greens 5% – with the remaining 5% to other parties.

But Scottish Labour has edged a point ahead of the SNP on the more proportional regional list vote with the nationalists’ return of 27%.

The Tories would win 17% of regional votes, the Greens 9%, Lib Dems 8%, Reform UK 6% and Alex Salmond’s Alba Party 4%.

An analysis by polling expert Sir John Curtice for the Sunday Times found that this result would leave Labour as the largest party at Holyrood with 40 seats.

The remainder of the chamber would be 38 for the SNP, 24 Conservatives, 10 Greens, nine Lib Dems and eight Reform parliamentarians.

This would mark a historic breakthrough for Nigel Farage’s party in Scotland as it at least partially replicates its gains in England by attracting some older, Brexit-supporting Tories north of the border.

Sir John, professor of politics at Strathclyde University – who compiled the seat projections, said the “question that now arises is whether the coronation of John Swinney will enable the SNP to turn the page”.

He added: “Even among those who said they would vote Yes in another independence referendum, only 56% said they were now willing to back the SNP for Westminster, as would only two-thirds who voted for the party in 2019.”

Norstat interviewed 1,086 people aged 16 or over in Scotland between April 30 and May 3.
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SNP depute leader Keith Brown commented: “After 14 years of cruel Tory governments inflicting endless damage on Scotland and Keir Starmer’s Labour offering no meaningful alternative, it’s clear only the SNP and independence offers a better future for our country.

“The SNP is the only party standing up for the priorities of people across Scotland and offering a positive vision for the future where decisions about Scotland are made in Scotland.

“At the general election Scottish voters have the chance to reject the cosy status quo of a broken Westminster system that is failing them and vote to elect SNP MPs who will always stand up for their interests”.
Most British Voters Think Rishi Sunak Has Accomplished Nothing and Has No Plan

May 5, 2024
R&WS Research Team
See more of our research

In January 2023, in an attempt to reset his Government’s policy agenda, Rishi Sunak named five key priorities for his Government: halve inflation, grow the economy, get the national debt falling, reduce NHS waiting lists, and stop the boats.

Announcing his priorities, Sunak promised, “No tricks… no ambiguity… we’re either delivering for you or we’re not.” He asked voters to judge his Government one year later “on the effort we put in and the results we achieve.”

Sixteen months later, in polling conducted as voters went to the polls in local elections across England, majorities of British voters say they think that Sunak will not achieve any of his priorities, that he has made no progress at all towards cutting NHS waiting lists or stopping small boats, and that he has no plan to make the UK a better place, nevermind a working plan.

When asked to rate how much Rishi Sunak has accomplished as Prime Minister, a plurality (41%) think he has accomplished ‘nothing at all,’ while just under a quarter (24%) think he has accomplished either a ‘significant’ (6%) or ‘fair’ (18%) amount.

Among Conservative voters at the last election, as many as 29% think Sunak has accomplished ‘nothing at all,’ while just 9% think he has accomplished a ‘significant’ amount.


Regarding his five priorities collectively, 38% think Sunak and his Government have made ‘no progress at all’ towards achieving these priorities. Another 38% think Sunak has made only ‘a little progress’ towards achieving them. 15% say ‘a fair amount of progress’ has been made, and just 5% think ‘a significant amount of progress’ has been achieved.

Almost half of 2019 Labour voters (47%) and more than a quarter of 2019 Conservative voters (29%) say ‘no progress at all’ has been made towards achieving these priorities.



Taken separately, majorities of Britons think Sunak and his Government have made ‘no progress at all’ towards cutting NHS waiting lists (63%), stopping small boats crossing the Channel (54%), and reducing the national debt (51%).

A plurality believe the Government has made ‘no progress at all’ towards growing the economy (44%).

Even on the one priority the Government has ostensibly achieved—halving inflation—only 9% say ‘a significant amount of progress’ has been made, against 68% who say the amount of progress that has been made is either ‘no progress at all’ (35%) or only ‘a little’ (33%).

The discrepancy between these numbers and the fact that inflation has indeed halved since last January may be down to many voters either misunderstanding what it was Sunak was committing to when he made halving inflation a priority in the first place (i.e., they thought he meant prices would fall) or being unwilling to attribute the halving of inflation to any policies set forth by the Prime Minister (who rarely, if ever, specified any active policies to halve inflation. Saying no to spending plans is a passive policy.).



With the next election drawing ever closer, majorities of voters believe the Government has not or will not ultimately achieve any of its stated priorities at the start of 2023.

Only between 19% and 32% believe Sunak and his Government will achieve any of its priorities.


At the same time, however, voters have little confidence that a Government led by Keir Starmer would have been or would now be able to achieve the same priorities.

British voters believe a Government led by Starmer would not achieve four of the five priorities named by Sunak in January 2023, while they are split 41% each on whether or not a Starmer-led Government would be able to cut NHS waiting lists.


Nevertheless, between Starmer and Sunak, pluralities say they trust Starmer the most to halve inflation (which, again Sunak has ostensibly, achieved), grow the economy, cut NHS waiting lists, and reduce the national debt.

A plurality of 40%, meanwhile, answer ‘neither of them’ when asked who between Sunak and Starmer they trust the most to stop small boats crossing the Channel.



When 2023 lapsed and most of Rishi Sunak’s pledges had not yet been achieved, the Prime Minister began to insist, “The plan is working,” in an earnest plea for voters to trust that results are on their way.

Altogether, 54% of voters—including 41% 2019 Conservative voters—say they think Rishi Sunak has no plan for how to make the United Kingdom a better place. Only 31% think he has a plan.

An even larger majority of 64% say they think Sunak does not have a plan for the UK that is working, including a majority (52%) of 2019 Conservative voters.


By contrast, 44% think Keir Starmer does have a plan to make the UK a better place.

However, a plurality of 40% of voters think Starmer does not have a plan that will work, against 32% who think that he does.


To find out more information about this research contact our research team. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. Follow us on Twitter



Election results: What are the key trends and statistics?


Sunday 5 May 2024 
Credit: PA

Hundreds of different contests were held across England and Wales on May 2, ranging from the election of local councillors to choosing high-profile mayors.

Now that almost all the counting is over, here are some of the key trends to emerge from the results – and the statistics behind them.

ITV News explains.

Mayors

Labour dominated this year’s mayoral elections, notching up a string of wins by high-profile incumbents as well as scoring a clean sweep of victories in those parts of the country that were voting for a mayor for the first time.

In five of the 11 contests, Labour not only finished first but won more than 50% of the vote: Liverpool (where Steve Rotheram got 68.0%), Greater Manchester (63.4% for Andy Burnham), Salford (61.5% for Paul Dennett), South Yorkshire (50.9% for Oliver Coppard) and West Yorkshire (50.4% for Tracy Brabin).

This is no mean feat in elections held under the first-past-the-post system, where having multiple candidates on the ballot often means the winner does not end up with over half of the popular vote.

This exact scenario happened in the five other mayoral contests won by Labour candidates: London (where Sadiq Khan got 43.8% of the vote), the North East (41.3% for Kim McGuinness), East Midlands (40.3% for Claire Ward), Birmingham (37.8% for Richard Parker) and York & North Yorkshire (35.1% for David Skaith).Labour’s Sadiq Khan speaks as he is re-elected as the Mayor of LondonCredit: Jeff Moore/PA

Elections for the East Midlands, North East and York & North Yorkshire mayors were being held for the first time, meaning there was no incumbency factor to boost the chances of a particular party.

They also took place in areas that will be key Conservative-Labour battlegrounds at the next general election – particularly the East Midlands which contains a high number of marginal seats.

Seen in this context, the sole Tory success in this year’s mayoral contests, the re-election of Ben Houchen in Tees Valley, is very much an outlier, though he did – like most of the other incumbents – manage to win more than half of the vote (53.6%).

Only three candidates stood in the Tees Valley contest – Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat – which was the lowest number in any of this year’s mayoral elections.

Councils

Results are in from 106 of the 107 councils in England that held elections on May 2 and they show Labour has won 1,140 seats, an increase of more than 200.

The Liberal Democrats beat the Tories into second place, winning 521 seats, up nearly 100.

The Tories are just behind on 513 seats, down nearly 400.

The change in seats is the difference in the number of councillors compared with the state of the parties just before election day.

There are other ways to report the change, such as comparing this year’s results with how the parties fared the last time most of the seats were elected, though this overlooks factors such as by-elections and defections.

Independent candidates have won 228 seats, down 28, the Greens have won 181, up 64, while Reform has won two, down one.Rishi Sunak said the results had been ‘disappointing’ but hailed his party’s victory in Tees ValleyCredit: Owen Humphreys/PA

The new-look council map of England shows a continuation of the trend that emerged in last year’s local elections: a tilt away from the Conservatives and towards councils controlled by other parties or where no party has a majority.

The Tories lost control of 10 local authorities on May 2: Adur in West Sussex, Nuneaton & Bedworth in Warwickshire, Redditch in Worcestershire and Rushmoor in Hampshire to Labour; Dorset to the Lib Dems; and Basildon in Essex, Dudley in the West Midlands, Gloucester, Havant in Hampshire and North East Lincolnshire to no overall control.

They also shed councillors in many areas, including losing 12 at Stroud in Gloucestershire, 12 at Maidstone in Kent, 11 at Peterborough, 10 at Thurrock in Essex and nine at Cherwell in Oxfordshire; were reduced to just one councillor at Stevenage and Wigan; and were wiped out entirely at Castle Point in Essex, Cheltenham, Sheffield and South Tyneside.

Many of these are in parts of the country that will be key battlegrounds at the next general election, with Labour hoping to make gains from the Tories in the Midlands and the South East, and the Lib Dems eyeing the “blue wall” in the South West.


Richard Parker: Who is the new mayor for the West Midlands?



Labour's Sadiq Khan wins historic third term as London mayor


A more localised trend specific to these local elections led to Labour losing control of two councils, Oldham in Greater Manchester and Kirklees in West Yorkshire.

In both areas, Independent candidates made gains at Labour’s expense, while in Rochdale in Greater Manchester the Workers Party – led by George Galloway – gained two seats from Labour.

These changes could reflect unhappiness with Labour among some of its supporters in traditional heartlands in northern England, linked to the party’s policy towards the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Meanwhile another result that could have consequences for the general election occurred in Bristol, where the Greens made 10 gains to become the largest party on the council.

The parliamentary seat of Bristol Central is the Greens’ number one election target – and they have just won every council seat inside the constituency.

But the overall picture chimes with the trend evident in the mayoral and council elections: that of the Conservatives losing ground in many areas of the country.