Kathleen Culliton
August 15, 2024
KALAMAZOO, MICHIGAN - JULY 17: US Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a moderated conversation with former Trump administration national security official Olivia Troye and former Republican voter Amanda Stratton on July 17, 2024 in Kalamazoo, Michigan. (Photo by Chris duMond/Getty Images)
Vice President Kamala Harris now has two paths to victory over former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election, a new Washington Post analysis found.
Harris, the presumptive Democratic nominee's campaign, became Thursday the Washington Post's favorite to win the White House should the election take place today, based on a polling data analysis that found she has more ways to win.
"For now, that is a game changer," wrote data scientist Lenny Bronner.
The vice president has claimed leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and is closing the gap in Michigan, where Trump now leads by less than a percentage point, the Washington Post reports. The analysts expect a tie in that state within days.
Trump maintains a lead in the electoral college tally but the Post finds Harris is competitive in more states that could add to 270 electoral college votes, according to the Post.
Harris has two paths: claiming Rust Belt states — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — or the Sun Belt states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, according to the Post.
But Trump, their analysis found, must win both.
"The reason Harris is now the favorite is because Harris has closed the gap with Trump in Sun Belt states enough to open a second path to the presidency," wrote Bronner. "There’s no question something big happened."
Polls historically underestimated Trump in his last two presidential elections, but the Post analysis found Harris' freedom from Rust Belt reliance and her campaign's continued momentum in swing states could balance it out.
"Our model shows that for Trump to win the White House, he would need to notch victories in both the Rust Belt and Sun Belt," writes Bronner. "But crucially for Harris, she would win by taking just one of those two paths."
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