Groundbreaking earthquake discovery: Risk models overlook an important element

by University of Copenhagen

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Earthquakes themselves affect the movement of Earth's tectonic plates, which in turn could impact on future earthquakes, according to new research from the University of Copenhagen. This new knowledge should be incorporated in computer models used to gauge earthquake risk, according to the researchers behind the study.

Like a gigantic puzzle, Earth's tectonic plates divide the surface of our planet into larger and smaller pieces. These pieces are in constant motion due to the fluid-like part of Earth's mantle, upon which they slowly sail. These movements regularly trigger earthquakes, some of which can devastate cities and cost thousands of lives. In 1999, the strongest European earthquake in recent years struck the town of İzmit, Turkey—taking the lives of 17,000 of its residents.

Among researchers and earthquake experts, it is well accepted that earthquakes are caused by a one-way mechanism: as plates move against one another, energy is slowly accrued along plate margins, and then suddenly released via earthquakes. This happens time and again over decades- or century-long intervals, in a constant stick-slip motion.

But in a new study, published in Geophysical Journal International, researchers from the Geology Section at the University of Copenhagen's Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management demonstrate that the behavior of tectonic plates can change following an earthquake.

Using extensive GPS data and analysis of the 1999 İzmit earthquake, the researchers have been able to conclude that the Anatolian continental plate that Turkey sits upon has changed direction since the earthquake. Data also show that this influenced the frequency of quakes around Turkey after 1999.

"It appears that the link between plate motion—earthquake occurrence is not a one-way street. Earthquakes themselves feed back, as they can cause plates to move differently afterwards," explains the study's lead author, postdoc Juan Martin De Blas, who adds:

"As the plate movements change, it somewhat affects the pattern of the later earthquakes. If a tectonic plate shifts direction or moves at a different rate than before, this potentially impacts onto the seismicity of its margins with neighboring plates."

Quake models can be improved

According to the researchers, the new findings provide a clear basis for reevaluating the risk models that interpret data gathered from the monitoring of tectonic plate movements. This data is used to assess the risk of future earthquakes in terms of probability, somehow like the nice/bad weather forecast.

"An important aspect of these models is that they operate under the assumption that plate movements remain constant. With this study, we can see that this isn't the case. Therefore, the models can now be further evolved so they take the feedback mechanism that occurs following an earthquake into account, where plates shift direction and speed," says Associate Professor Giampiero Iaffaldano, the study's co-author.

The assumption that plate movements are constant has largely been a "necessary" assumption according to the researchers, because monitoring plate motions over period of few years was once impossible. But with the advent of geodesy in Geosciences, and the extensive and ever-growing use of GPS devices over the last 20 years, we can track plate motion changes over year-long periods.

Could make us better at assessing risk

How tectonic plates are monitored varies greatly from place to place. Often GPS transmitters are positioned preferentially near the edges of a tectonic plate. This allows public agencies and researchers to track the movement of plate boundaries. But according to the researchers, we can also benefit from even more GPS devices continuously monitoring plate interiors, away from their margins.

"Plate boundaries undergo constant deformation and poorly represent the movement of plates as a whole. Therefore, GPS data from monitors positioned farther away from the plate boundaries should be used to a much greater degree. This can better inform us weather plates are changing motion and how, and provide information useful for assessing the risk of future events somewhere other than the known hot-spots," says Giampiero Iaffaldano.

The researchers point out that their study is limited to the Anatolian continental plate, as the İzmit earthquake is one of the few event for which a combination of sufficient seismic and GPS data is available. However, they expect that the picture is the same for other tectonic plates around the planet.Caribbean-South American plate boundary primed for major earthquake

More information: J Martin de Blas et al, Have the 1999 Izmit–Düzce earthquakes influenced the motion and seismicity of the Anatolian microplate?, Geophysical Journal International (2022). DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggac020

Journal information: Geophysical Journal International 

Provided by University of Copenhagen 

Toronto data scientist takes sabbatical to pursue his chess ambition
CECIL ROSNER
SPECIAL TO THE GLOBE AND MAIL

PUBLISHED YESTERDAY

Shiyam Thavandiran is putting his career as a data scientist with RBC on hold as he tries to win the coveted grandmaster title in chess.

“Life is short,” says the 29-year-old, who is currently one of Canada’s top international masters. “I realized having a full year to focus on it would be good.”

Born and raised in Toronto, Thavandiran had phenomenal success as a youth, placing fourth in the world under-10 championships alongside players who today are among the best in the world. He was also the youngest Canadian junior champion ever at the age of 12. He continued playing competitively even as he got his master’s degree in mathematics and experience in the artificial intelligence field.

Though he hasn’t played an over-the-board event in two years, he isn’t going to rush back into competition until he’s ready. He likes quoting Abraham Lincoln to describe how he is approaching his sabbatical.

“If you have six hours to cut down a tree, spend the first four sharpening the axe,” he says. For him, that includes extensive study of chess openings, as well as physical preparation.

As the pandemic eases in many parts of the world, he is hoping his first serious in-person tournament will happen soon.

Shiyam Thavandiran v Tatev Abrahamyan, St. Louis, 2019

THE GLOBE AND MAIL
Black has just captured on d4 to re-establish material equality. What is White’s best move?
REVEAL ANSWER
32.Qf6! Threatening mate if Black moves the Rook. … Rcd8 33.Ra4 Rd1+ 34.Kh2 Kf8 35.Rf4 and White won.

Chess: Rapport closes in on Candidates as six-year-old steals show at Blackpool

Richard Rapport is near to becoming one of the eight candidates to challenge for Magnus Carlsen’s crown, while six-year-old Kushal Jakhria tied for first at the Blackpool U1850 Intermediate despite being the lowest ranked player

Six-year-old Kushal Jakhria in action at the ChessFest rapid play day.

 Photograph: Andrew Moss

Leonard Barden

THE GUARDIAN

Fri 18 Mar 2022

Richard Rapport is near to claiming one of the two remaining places in the 2022 Candidates after the Hungarian defeated Russia’s Dmitry Andreikin 1.5-0.5 in Belgrade in the second-leg final of the Fide Grand Prix. The action now moves to the third and final leg in Berlin from 21 March to 4 April, which Rapport will sit out while his rivals battle.

The decisive game had a remarkable climax. Rapport had the chance for an immediate draw by repetition, but instead allowed his clock to run down to two minutes before opting for unfathomable complications which turned out in his favour.

Berlin in March-April will have 16 players, four preliminary groups, and one group of death which contains Andreikin as well as the two Americans, Hikaru Nakamura and Levon Aronian, who were first and second at Berlin in February. The arithmetic shows that two of this trio will be eliminated, while the fourth player, Grigoriy Oparin, is potentially the kingmaker.

3807: Qi Chen v Kalyan Arjun, Asian Universities championship 2021. White to move and win. Just a slightly disguised standard tactic which every serious player should know.

Depending on what happens in the group of death, the other significant contenders – Anish Giri, Maxime Vachier-Lagrave and Leinier Domínguez – may still be in the running. However, a scenario where Oparin plays harder against the US duo than against his compatriot looks likely, and that could prove significant in a sprint distance of six rounds.

The elite action moves back online this Saturday when Magnus Carlsen is top seeded in the Charity Cup, the second event in the Meltwater Champions Tour. Rapport is taking part, as are China’s world, No 3 Ding Liren, the world woman champion, Ju Wenjun, and England’s Gawain Jones. Games start at 5pm. Months further on, the 44th chess Olympiad, removed from Moscow, has been confirmed for Chennai, India, in July-August.

Last weekend’s Blackpool Conference at the Imperial Hotel was England’s first major over-the-board weekend congress of 2022. Its entry of 281 was down on pre-pandemic levels, but still a healthy number as 143 took part in an overlapping rapid at Golders Green.

GM Danny Gormally, rated nearly 100 points or more higher than the rest of the field at 2520, was the clear favourite for the £700 first prize, but the England No 12 misfired somewhat, conceded two draws, and had to settle for 4/5 and a seven-way tie for top honours. In this file of games from the Open, Gormally’s entertaining round-three win is recommended.

Blackpool’s most significant result was away from the Open, in the Under 1850 Intermediate (ECF 150 in old money). Six-year-old Kushal Jakhria, 70th and lowest ranked at the start, took a half-point bye on Friday evening, then defeated all his four adult opponents on Saturday and Sunday for 4.5/5 and a third share of the £500 first prize.

His victims were no pushovers, either. Michael Connor (round three) had won the 2018 Blackpool Inter, while Bob Kane (round four) had won the Scarborough 2021 Major.

Quick Guide

Kushal Jakhria v Bob Kane, Dutch Defence

Jakhria already made an appearance in this column when he became London under-8 champion at age five. Like England’s best-known teen player Shreyas Royal, he is a pupil of the Pointer School, Blackheath, and learnt further chess skills at his local Charlton club, which has a fine reputation for junior talent.

Jakhria’s coach, Fide Master Alexis Harakis, has helped his pupil become a specialist in the Sveshnikov Sicilian and on the white side of a classical King’s Indian. His Lichess online rating is already above 2200.

The English Chess Federation currently runs an Accelerator Programme for 10 of its most promising players, for which one selection criterion is to be in at least the top five in their UK age group. None of the programme’s current members is younger than 11, and Royal is the only one to have achieved a high world ranking and to have medalled in a world or European championship.

In the golden years of English chess, some of the most gifted talents emerged at eight or younger, like Nigel Short, Michael Adams, Luke McShane, David Howell, Jovanka Houska and others. They were given special opportunities, mentored and coached with a view to becoming GMs early in their careers, and achieved their targets.


Garry Kasparov: ‘The thing about jail is the sound when they lock the door’

The current Fide list for players born in 2015, who all count as under-7s, shows Jakhria as world No 4, poised to reach No 2 in the April list which will include Blackpool, and within reach of No 1.

The Charlton boy is not alone as a very young English talent. Harrow’s 2015-born Bodhana Sivanandan, who won silver medals in both the rapid and blitz European under-8 girls, is world No 1 girl in blitz in her age group by a whopping margin of 322 Fide points. Bodhana learned the moves only 15 months ago, attends a local state primary school, St John Fisher, and has no chess coach, although Harrow CC and its president, Nevil Chan, have provided guidance and support.

It is early days, but these two children already stand out as exceptional. Jakhria’s Blackpool result is probably the best ever performance by an English six-year-old, while Sivanandan’s medals in Serbia match Houska’s fifth place on her debut in the 1988 world girls U10. Their situation calls for a sponsor …

3807 1 Nf6+! gxf6 2 Rxe7! Qxe7 3 Qg4+! Kh8 4 Qf5 and wins.

German military: Big budget, little efficiency

The German military has just been given a massive defense budget boost — but it is dogged by allegations of inefficiency. The parliamentary Bundeswehr commissioner's report was not comforting.



The Bundeswehr has long lacked even basic gear for the troops

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's announcement in late February that his government was about to give the defense budget a massive boost had commentators reaching into history to explain its significance. Decades of over-cautious defense policy, some said, were being overturned in the space of a single speech on a bright Sunday morning in the German parliament. Just a few hundred meters away at the same time, over 100,000 Berliners were protesting against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Scholz made a long-term pledge to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP, which would potentially increase the annual defense budget to around €70 billion ($77 billion). More eye-catching, however, was Scholz's surprising one-off windfall of €100 billion to spend on the armed forces.

Though it is below the 2% marker, Germany's defense budget is not exactly small: According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Germany has the 7th-best-funded military in the world, with a higher budget than that of France. Not only that: German military expenditure has risen over the last 10 years, from around €32.5 billion in 2011 to over €50.3 billion this year.

An army in need of repair

But despite the extra money, the German military does not seem to be in a good state. Eva Högl, the German parliament's defense commissioner, painted a sorry picture on March 15 when she presented her annual report on the military.

"I was very shocked by the reports from soldiers about the material shortcomings in all three armed services," she wrote in the report's introduction. "Not a single visit to the troops and not a single conversation with soldiers in which I was not told about some deficits."

Only 50% of some major hardware was operational, she said, before adding that "everyday equipment" like armored vests and winter jackets often had to be delivered later while soldiers were already in the field. "This is unacceptable and has to be improved," she wrote.

Despite all this, she contradicted the alarming verdict delivered by Army Inspector Lieutenant General Alfons Mais on his LinkedIn page in late February, when he said that the army he led was "more or less bare."

That's going a bit far, insisted Högl: "I would say that that was, of course, a very emotional statement," she told reporters on Tuesday. "General Mais pointed out certain problems, but the Bundeswehr is ready for action … The 'cold start' capability of the Bundeswehr needs to be significantly improved, but the Bundeswehr is ready."


Defense commissioner Högl has long been deploring the lack of suitable equipment

Accusations of inefficiency

But there is evidence that money alone cannot solve the Bundeswehr's problems. On top of all the documented shortfalls with the readiness of tanks and helicopters, the Defense Ministry has been dogged by accusations of inefficiency for years: One former minister, the current EU President Ursula von der Leyen, had to face a parliamentary inquiry in 2019 over what became known as the "consultancy affair," when it emerged that her ministry was, in the words of one witness, "burning so much money it made you dizzy."

The witness in question was Norbert Dippel, who until 2017 was the head lawyer at the government-owned company Heeresinstandsetzungslogistik (HIL), which repairs the German army's tanks. The "money-burning" comment related to the German government's efforts to privatize his company at high speed, giving out lucrative consultancy contracts with no recourse to necessary procedures.

According to a Transparency International (TI) report from 2020, entitled "Defense Industry Influence in Germany," the privatization of such companies would mean the government risked losing the technical expertise necessary for making procurement decisions.

Dippel also told the parliamentary committee about contracts for consultancy and legal firms — including one contract that was to run for 30 years — at a cost of €1.6 billion.

In a statement to DW, the Defense Ministry said that since the parliament's report was released it had "quickly introduced a series of measures to ensure that comparable failings cannot be repeated in future." These included strengthening specialist expertise in the ministry, new central regulations for taking on external consultants, and centralizing the awarding of contracts.

On Tuesday, Högl made clear that she said the new €100 billion windfall needed to be spent "sensibly." When asked what that meant exactly, she said: "What is not sensible is if we start developing something new now that the Bundeswehr can only profit from in 2050," she said. The problem, she said, was that the procurement process was "too ponderous."

That kind of talk sets off alarm bells for Dippel, because to him it sounds like politicians are keen to speed up the process at the expense of procurement law — ensuring fair competition and making economic assessments and price comparisons. "The rapidity of the intended procurements, which has received a great deal of media attention, harbors the risk that the regulations, which exist for good reason, will be disregarded, at least in part," he told DW. "The structured procurement process is meant to ensure that the most economically viable and qualitatively best product is procured."

The question is: What will happen to this new windfall? "Of course, consulting firms will sense business opportunities when there's a €100-billion pot to distribute. I don't think it's unlikely that the political pressure to quickly demonstrate success will again open the floodgates for the consulting firms


Compliance procedures undermined

Accelerating procedures always increase the risk of corruption, and bribery is not unheard-of in the German military: In January this year, Osnabrück prosecutors announced that, after a three-year investigation, it was pressing charges against several individuals, including bribery charges against a cost-checker in the German Navy arsenal. The charges related to the restoration of the Gorch Fock training ship, which ballooned from around €10 million to €135 million. Nearly €30 million of public money is believed to have been lost, prosecutors said.

That might be an isolated case, but there is evidence that the German military is becoming more vulnerable to inefficiency and corruption. The 2020 Transparency International report suggested that compliance procedures had been hollowed out in the Bundeswehr. "Lack of capacity and expertise are manifest at several key points along the procurement process," the report said. "Government staff are in a poor position to determine whether costs are proportionate."

TI found that the government, by transferring expertise to the private sector, was becoming more reliant on manufacturers to tell them what is the best equipment to buy. Staff capacity to make independent assessments has been compromised. Citing one example, TI noted that in 2012, an independent review team in the Defense Ministry that was supposed to be a "safeguard against ill-advised procurement decisions" was folded into the ministry's political department, "effectively dissolving it."

Peter Conze, TI co-founder and senior adviser for defense and security policy for Transparency Germany, doesn't think that corruption is anything like endemic in the German military procurement process, but he recognized the problems uncovered by the "consultancy affair."

"Clearly too many private contracts were handed out, instead of competitive tenders with price comparisons," he told DW. "They were too careless with contracts, they hired consultants too quickly, and they used networks — they often brought their own acquaintances on board with contracts."

Should such problems persist, it is possible that throwing money at the Bundeswehr may not automatically make it more effective.

Edited by: Rina Goldenberg

This article was expanded after its initial publication on March 15, which was when Eva Högl made her remarks in parliament.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY 

MURDOUROUS HOMOPHOBIC MISOGYNIST
'A psychopath': Chechen warlord Kadyrov raises prospect of more brutal phase to Ukraine war

Alexander Nazaryan
·Senior White House Correspondent
Sat, March 19, 2022

WASHINGTON — Launched by Moscow in 1999, the second Chechen war elevated the stature of Russia’s new and then little-known prime minister, a former intelligence officer named Vladimir Putin. Intended to bring the mountainous Islamic region back under the Kremlin’s control, the exceptionally brutal campaign endeared Putin to Russians nostalgic for a show of strength from what was considered by much of the world to be a fading nuclear superpower.

“The bandits will be destroyed,” Putin said at the time, in an echo of how he would talk of the “Nazis” he now claims to be purging from Ukraine’s government and military. “We must go through the mountain caves and scatter and destroy all those who are armed.”

So when Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov announced earlier this week that he was in Ukraine to support Putin’s invasion, it seemed as if the past had caught up with the present. Even though Kadyrov’s journey to the front — he claimed on social media to have nearly reached the capital, Kyiv, which is still under Ukrainian control — may have been fictitious, amounting to little more than a publicity stunt, some say his involvement could lead to an even bloodier conflict.

Chechen regional leader Ramzan Kadyrov. (Musa Sadulayev/AP)

“Kadyrov is a psychopath who personally tortures his political prisoners,” Russia expert Michael Weiss told Yahoo News, alluding to Kadyrov’s well-known human rights abuses. Weiss and others say the apparent presence of Kadyrov’s soldiers in Ukraine could signal a new phase of fighting, one in which the rules of conventional warfare are discarded as Putin becomes more desperate for victory.

Kadyrov, 45, rules Chechnya under Putin’s supervision. And if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is the conflict’s leading man, Kadyrov is the more colorful counterpart to chief villain Putin, given to brandishing a golden gun and trotting out a pet tiger. And even as he was supposedly preparing for war, Kadyrov engaged in a social media feud with Tesla founder Elon Musk.

His cartoonish demeanor, however, disguises a deep lust for power and a penchant for violence. Kadyrov commands a paramilitary outfit called the Kadyrovites, who work to suppress any rebellion in Chechnya, which has struggled to free itself from Russia (and other empires) for centuries. By doing Putin’s bidding — which has included hunting down opponents in Istanbul and Berlin — Kadyrov essentially guarantees he will retain the Kremlin’s support.

“The Russian military is facing a critical lack of manpower,” explains Emil Aslan, professor of security studies at Charles University in Prague. Kadyrovites, he told Yahoo News, “are an essential asset to the Russian military, both in tactical and psychological terms.”

A burned tank in Volnovakha, Ukraine. (Stringer/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said on Thursday that the Biden administration could not confirm the presence of Chechen fighters in Ukraine. But such confirmation has come from battlefield reports, as well as from social media posts, where a kind of meta-battle is being waged for world opinion.

The Kremlin has not hyped Kadyrov’s role and, in fact, challenged the bombastic warlord’s own assertion that he was on the outskirts of Kyiv. At the same time, the Kremlin has few other allies to turn to.

“Russia's scrounging for troops in Chechnya and beyond is probably a sign of how poorly the war has gone for them,” says Ben Friedman, policy director at the Washington, D.C., think tank Defense Priorities.

Although Ukraine’s military is much smaller than Russia’s, poorly trained Russian conscripts have been repelled repeatedly since Putin launched an invasion last month. And with the United States and other nations continuing to supply weapons to Kyiv, Russia could be coming dangerously close to defeat, potentially leaving it to rely on the kind of grueling warfare that allowed Putin to declare victory in Chechnya two decades ago, after an earlier attempt to conquer the Muslim-majority region proved unsuccessful.

Russian President Boris Yeltsin launched a disastrous invasion of Chechnya in 1994, seeking to keep the small, oil-rich republic from gaining independence. Yet Chechnya mounted a furious defense that culminated in a battle for Grozny, the Chechen capital, that left hundreds of Russian soldiers dead. The humiliated Russian army retreated, and Chechnya achieved a measure of autonomy — and peace.

Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, was besieged by the Russian army in August 1996. 

(Eric Bouvet/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images)

An earnest student of Soviet propaganda, Putin could now be trying to use crude stereotypes about Chechens’ fighting prowess to frighten an otherwise emboldened Ukrainian resistance.

After a series of apartment bombings in Moscow and elsewhere that were blamed on Chechens — but were likely carried out by Kremlin security services — Putin started a second Chechen war that saw Grozny leveled and the small republic’s civil society effectively destroyed. In exchange for their loyalty, the Kadyrov family — who had once been rebels themselves — were given unfettered power over the Chechen populace. They have wielded that power ruthlessly, in particular when it comes to the nation’s gay and lesbian population.

A 2006 report by Human Rights Watch found that dissidents could face almost medieval retribution. “They started kicking me, and then brought an ‘infernal machine’ to give me electric shocks. They attached the wires to my toes and kept cranking the handle to release the current. I couldn’t bear it,” a survivor of Kadyrov’s torture, named in the report as “Khamid Kh.,” testified.

Bringing such methods to Ukraine would only exacerbate a conflict that has already led President Biden to call Putin a “war criminal.”

A supporter of Putin’s campaign from the start, Kadyrov said earlier this week that he was on the battlefield and ready to fight. That assertion was later debunked by a Ukrainian news outlet that determined Kadyrov’s announcement had actually been sent from Chechnya. Still, Chechens are involved in the conflict, with Ukraine accusing them of trying to assassinate Zelensky.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks to the U.S. Congress from Kyiv on Wednesday. (Ukrainian Presidency/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Their role could broaden should Russia’s assault fail to take Kyiv and other large cities. If forces aligned with Kadyrov “are asked to target neighborhoods, target civilians, they will do it,” says Jean-François Ratelle, a University of Ottawa expert on the Chechen wars. “They could be used to commit war crimes against civilians.”

Putin could also use Chechens to shoot Russian conscripts attempting to desert, Ratelle said. The practice has precedent in Russian history: During World War II, Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin had Red Army frontline soldiers trailed by security services ordered to shoot anyone trying to retreat from the terrifying German onslaught.

So far, all the alleged war crimes in Ukraine appear to have been committed by Russians at the Kremlin’s behest. But the prospect that Kadyrov could become more involved in the conflict alarms experts on Chechnya and its tumultuous history.

Weiss, the Russia expert, said reports that Putin was recruiting fighters in Syria — where Russia helped bolster dictator Bashar Assad’s ruthless regime in that nation’s civil war — were another development pointing to an escalation. “Putin is throwing everything he can into this war.”

If the second Chechen war cemented Putin’s grip on Russia, the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine could prove his undoing — but not before thousands more soldiers and civilians die in the process, especially if he looks to Kadyrov for the cruelly unconventional warfare that is the Chechen warlord’s calling card.

Russian President Vladimir Putin at an event in Moscow on Friday marking the eighth anniversary of Russia's annexation of Crimea. (Ramil Sitdikov/AFP via Getty Images)

Others see Kadyrov’s belligerent shows of support for the war in Ukraine as a desperate attempt to frighten Ukrainians with racist tropes about Muslim Chechens and their supposed disposition toward violence.

Yet while Kadyrov himself is loyal to Putin — little surprise, since Putin installed his father as the leader of Chechnya in 2000; the elder Kadyrov was assassinated by separatists in 2004 — other Chechens despise the strongman and his Kremlin ties, choosing instead to fight on behalf of Ukraine.

“I want to tell Ukrainians that real Chechens, today, are defending Ukraine,” a dissident Chechen commander said last month.

WHEN BJ HINTS HE USES A BULLHORN

Boris Johnson hints at fracking return as he vows to 'take back control' of energy
David Maddox- Politics Editor 

© Getty PM Boris Johnson

In his spring conference speech yesterday, the Prime Minister made it clear that he is giving the green light to Britain using its gas and oil resources going forward with insiders suggesting that a U-turn to allow fracking is coming. He admitted that the policy of importing gas from places like Russia have undermined the UK's energy security.

It comes ahead of Chancellor Rishi Sunak's Spring Statement on Wednesday which is expected to focus on cost of living issues with a new energy policy also expected to be unveiled later in the week.

Mr Johnson said: "If we are going to deal with the particular cost families face on rising fuel costs, we must take the bold steps necessary to end our dependence on Putin's oil and gas. That is what we are doing. In the immortale phrase, it is time to take back control of our energy supplies.


"After years of short termism and hand to mouth solutions we are setting out a British energy security strategy and we will make better use of our own naturally occurring hydrocarbons rather than import them top dollar from abroad and put the money into Putin's bank account.

"That does not mean in any way that we are going to abandon our drive for a low carbon future, we are going to make some big bets on nuclear power, not just the big projects but small modular reactors.

He said his Government needs to do "everything we can to help people" through the mounting cost of living pressures as energy prices continue to spike.

The Prime Minister promised "colossal" investment in green energy and vowed to use the UK's fast coronavirus vaccine rollout as motivation to build more wind farms in a bid to produce alternative power forms.

He told the Conservative Party spring conference in Blackpool that Britain needed to protect itself from international energy price rises, which he said were currently being intentionally fuelled by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Mr Johnson said Russian President Vladimir Putin was seeking to "weaken the collective will to resist" his attack on Kyiv by "pushing up the cost of living, hitting us at the pumps and in our fuel bills".

He added: "And so we must respond, and we've got to do everything we can to help people with their daily costs, help people with the cost of living."

The comments come only days before Chancellor Rishi Sunak is due to give his spring statement in the Commons on Wednesday.

The words also provide a hint that the Government is prepared to have a rethink on shale gas and fracking with exploration company Cuadrilla last week offered a 12 month reprieve from blocking up its two wells with concrete to allow for the issue to be reconsidered.

Conservative MPs had been critical of the Net Zero policy for pushing the country away from cheaper gas and forcing people to buy expensive non-carbon heating systems for their homes.

Man City boss sparks fury as he's pictured hugging Syria's mass-murdering tyrant Assad

Dan Warburton 

Manchester City ’s billionaire owner is facing a furious backlash after he was pictured hugging Syria’s mass-murdering tyrant Bashar al-Assad.

Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed Al Nahyan was also seen strolling with the president, who has used chemical weapons on his own citizens.

Last night Chris Bryant MP questioned whether the sheikh was a “fit and proper person to be owning a football club” and said it would be “good to see the back of him”.

He added there has been “barbarous, sustained murder going on in Syria” under Assad.

Sheikh Mansour, worth an estimated £17billion, met the Syrian leader this week in his native United Arab Emirates.

Is the sheikh a fit and proper person to be owning a football club? Have your say in the comment section

© Syrian Presidency Facebook page/ A handout picture released by the Syrian Presidency Facebook page on March 18, 2022, shows Syria's President Bashar al-Assad (L) is welcomed by the UAE's Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, in the capital Abu Dhabi

It was Assad’s first trip to an Arab country since the Syrian civil war began 11 years ago.

The trip, branded “profoundly disappointing” by the US, is seen as a warming of relations between the nations

Amnesty International said both Assad and the UAE are guilty of“human rights violations and war crimes”.

Its Kristyan Benedict said: “Many Man City fans would be disgusted to be associated with Assad and his torture state.”

It comes after Chelsea FC’s Russian owner Roman Abramovich was sanctioned over links to Russia ’s president Vladimir Putin.

Manchester City FC was approached for comment.

Syria's Assad visits UAE, 1st trip to Arab country since war

The Syrian presidency says President Bashar Assad has travelled to the United Arab Emirates, marking his first visit to an Arab country since Syria’s civil war erupted in 2011

By ALBERT AJI and ZEINA KARAM Associated Press

18 March 2022, 

3:15

On Location: March 18, 2022

Catch up on the developing stories making headlines.

The Associated Press

DAMASCUS, Syria -- Syrian President Bashar Assad was in the United Arab Emirates on Friday, his office said, marking his first visit to an Arab country since Syria’s civil war erupted in 2011.

In a statement posted on its social media pages, the office says that Assad met with Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, vice president and prime minister of the UAE and the ruler of Dubai. The two discussed expanding bilateral relations between their countries, it said.

The visit sends the clearest signal yet that the Arab world is willing to re-engage with Syria’s once widely shunned president. It comes against the backdrop of the raging war in Ukraine where Assad's main ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin, is pressing on with a military offensive, now in its fourth week, raining lethal fire on Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv. Syria has supported Russia's invasion, blaming the West for having provoked it.

Syria was expelled from the 22-member Arab League and boycotted by its neighbors after the conflict broke out 11 years ago. Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed in the war, which displaced half of Syria’s population. Large parts of Syria have been destroyed and reconstruction would cost tens of billions of dollars.

Arab and Western countries generally blamed Assad for the deadly crackdown on the 2011 protests that evolved into civil war, and supported the opposition in the early days of the conflict.

When asked about Assad's visit to the UAE, U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Washington was “profoundly disappointed and troubled by this apparent attempt to legitimize Bashar Al-Assad, who remains responsible and accountable for the death and suffering of countless Syrians, the displacement of more than half of the pre-war Syrian population, and the arbitrary detention and disappearance of over 150,000 Syrian men, women and children.”

Assad has very rarely traveled outside the country during Syria's civil war, only visiting Russia and Iran. Tehran has given the Syrian government billions of dollars in aid and sent Iran-backed fighters to battle alongside his forces — assistance that, along with Russian air power, has helped turn the tide in Assad’s favor.

With the war having fallen into a stalemate and Assad recovering control over most of the country thanks to military assistance from his two allies, Arab countries have inched closer toward restoring ties with the Syrian leader in recent years.

The UAE reopened its embassy in Syria in late 2018 in the most significant Arab overture toward the Assad government, though relations remained cold. Last fall, the Emirati foreign minister flew to Damascus for a meeting with Assad, the first visit by the country’s top diplomat since 2011. The United States, a close Emirati partner, criticized the visit at the time, saying it would not support any normalization with Assad’s government.

A key motive for the overtures by Sunni Muslim countries in the Persian Gulf is to blunt the involvement of their Shiite-led foe, Iran, which saw its influence expand rapidly in the chaos of Syria’s war.

The rapprochement, however, could serve both sides.

Syria badly needs to boost relations with oil-rich countries as its economy is being strangled by crippling Western sanctions and as it faces the task of post-war reconstruction. The UAE is also home to thousands of Syrians who work in the Gulf Arab nation and send money to their relatives at home.

The UAE’s state-run WAM news agency said the country’s de facto ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan welcomed Syria’s Bashar al-Assad at his palace in Abu Dhabi.

At the meeting, Sheikh Mohammed expressed his hope “this visit would be the beginning of peace and stability for Syria and tee entire region.”

The report said Assad briefed Sheikh Mohammed on the latest developments in Syria and the two leaders discussed mutual interests in the Arab world. Assad was reported to have left the UAE later on Friday from Abu Dhabi.

Sheikh Mohammed stressed to Assad that Syria remains a “fundamental pillar of Arab security” and that he hopes the UAE can facilitate its development. The leaders also discussed the importance of “the preservation of Syria’s territorial integrity and withdrawal of foreign forces,” the report added.

The similarly vague statement said Dubai’s Sheikh Mohammed affirmed the UAE’s desire to “discover new paths of constructive cooperation” with Syria and made no reference to the war.

———

Karam reported from Beirut. Associated Press writer Isabel DeBre contributed from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Russian cosmonauts receive warm welcome at International Space Station

Three Russian cosmonauts arrived safely at the International Space Station (ISS) on Friday, docking their Soyuz capsule with the outpost for a mission that continues a 20-year shared Russian-U.S. presence in orbit despite tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

© NASA TV/Handout via Reuters

The arrival of the latest cosmonaut team – warmly welcomed by four Americans, two Russians and a German crewmate already aboard – came a day after the European Space Agency (ESA) announced it had suspended a joint robotic rover mission to Mars with Russia due to the Ukraine conflict.

The rendezvous with the space station capped a flight of three hours and 10 minutes following liftoff of the Soyuz spacecraft from Russia’s Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan.

“Congratulations on the successful docking,” a voice from Russia’s mission control said moments later, according to an English translator speaking during a live NASA webcast of the event.

Link-up of the space vehicles took place as the Soyuz and space station flew some 250 miles (400 km) above eastern Kazakhstan, a NASA commentator said.

About 2-1/2 hours later, after the passageway between the station and Soyuz was pressurized, two sets of hatches were opened and the three smiling Soyuz astronauts, dressed in yellow flight suits, floated head-first, one by one, into the ISS.

They were greeted warmly with hugs and handshakes by all seven existing space station occupants who were waiting for them on the other side of the short corridor.

The Soyuz team, just beginning a science mission set to last 6-1/2 months, was led by commander Oleg Artemyev, accompanied spaceflight rookies Denis Matveev and Sergey Korsakov.

They will be replacing three current ISS crew members scheduled to fly back to Earth on March 30 - cosmonauts Pyotr Dubrov and Anton Shkaplerov and U.S. astronaut Mark Vande Hei.

Vande Hei will have logged a NASA record-breaking 355 days in orbit by the time he returns to Kazakhstan aboard a Soyuz capsule with his two cosmonaut colleagues.

Remaining aboard the space station with the newcomers until the next rotation in a couple of months are three NASA astronauts - Tom Marshburn, Raja Chari and Kayla Barron - and German crewmate Matthias Maurer of the European Space Agency.

Those four crew members arrived together in November aboard a SpaceX Crew Dragon craft launched from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida to begin a six-month stint in orbit.

Launched in 1998, the research platform has been continuously occupied since November 2000 while operated by a U.S.-Russian-led partnership including Canada, Japan and 11 European countries.

According to NASA, Friday’s arrival marked the first time a spacecraft docked to the station’s newly added Prichal module, a spherical-shaped unit launched to ISS and attached to the outpost’s Russian segment in November 2021.
Collaboration tested

The durability of U.S.-Russian collaboration in space is being tested by heightened antagonism between the two former Cold War adversaries over Russia’s three-week-old invasion of Ukraine.

As part of U.S. economic sanctions against Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government last month, U.S. President Joe Biden ordered high-tech export restrictions against Moscow that he said were designed to “degrade” Russia’s aerospace industry, including its space program.

Dmitry Rogozin, director-general of Russian space agency Roscosmos, then lashed out in a series of Twitter posts suggesting the U.S. sanctions could “destroy” ISS teamwork and lead to the space station falling out of orbit.

A week later, Rogozin announced that Russia would stop supplying or servicing Russian-made rocket engines used by two U.S. aerospace NASA suppliers, suggesting U.S. astronauts could use “broomsticks” to get to orbit.

At about the same time, Russia said it ceased joint ISS research with Germany and forced the cancellation of a British satellite launch from Baikonur.

The Roscosmos chief also said last month that Russia was suspending its cooperation with European launch operations at the European Spaceport in French Guiana.

On Thursday, the ESA announced that it would be impossible to continue cooperating with Russia on the ExoMars mission, which had called for a Russian rocket to launch a European-made rover to Mars later this year. Rogozin responded by saying Russia would start work on its own Mars mission.

The space station was born in part from a foreign policy initiative to improve American-Russian relations following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Cold War hostility that spurred the original U.S.-Soviet space race.

Rogozin’s recent actions have prompted some in the U.S. space industry to rethink the NASA-Roscosmos partnership. NASA officials have said that U.S. and Russian ISS crew members, while aware of events on Earth, were still working together professionally and that geopolitical tensions had not infected the space station.

(REUTERS)

No longer neutral? War in Ukraine tests Finland’s stance on Russia

Grégoire SAUVAGE 

Finland has traditionally walked a careful line of neutrality to avoid confrontation with its Russian neighbour. But the war in Ukraine is changing public attitudes, and joining NATO is becoming an increasingly realistic possibility. 

© Ludovic Marin, AFP

Twenty years ago, joining NATO would have been unthinkable in Finland. But a historic shift in public opinion is now under way, with a survey released on February 28 finding that, for the first time, a majority of the population (53%) was in favour of joining the Atlantic alliance – an increase of 25% since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began.

By March 14, a second poll found support for joining NATO had jumped again – to 62%.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, heightened security concerns have pushed Finnish politicians to consider dramatic policy shifts away from the country’s traditional neutrality. In an unprecedented move, Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced on February 28 that Finland would supply Ukraine with weapons to fight against Russian forces.

Meanwhile, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö has called for “cool heads” to prevail when it comes to making decisions over NATO membership.

“There is emotion at the heart of public opinion,” said Maurice Carrez, a professor at Sciences Po Strasbourg and a specialist in Finnish history. He added that two of the largest political parties in Finland are pro-NATO, the Social Democratic Party and the National Coalition.

“The Finnish president wanted to remind people that they have to avoid making a rash decision.”
Warnings from Russia

For Finland’s 5.5 million inhabitants, this means keeping calm in the face of escalating threats from Russia.

“Finland and Sweden are getting frequent warnings from Russia,” Chiara Ruffa, associate professor in war studies at the Swedish Defense University, told FRANCE 24. “In early March, for example, four Russian fighter jets violated Swedish airspace while the Swedish and Finnish armies were carrying out exercises on the island of Gotland [in the Baltic sea].”

“Nobody really believes that an attack is imminent, but it has become very clear that we are going to need to prepare for that eventuality,” she added.

<< 'War in Ukraine is coming dangerously close to NATO borders'

The current threat from Russia arguably became clear in 2014, when its forces entered Ukraine and annexed Crimea. Now, “the movement of Russian troops close to borders with Baltic countries has also played a role in stoking fears that were shown to be realistic”, Carrez said.

As a result, Finland has been modernising its own military and moving closer to NATO, even if it is not yet a member.

In 2014, Finland signed a treaty granting NATO troops support and transit through the country in times of crisis. And in 2022, NATO announced it would include Finland in alliance information-sharing during the war in Ukraine.
Memories of the Winter War

The fear of a Russian attack in Finland also has roots in World War II. The eastern Finnish border with Russia is more than 1,300 kilometres long, and the collective memory of Russian forces breaching it in 1939 remains potent.

During the Winter War that followed, Finland lost more than 80,000 soldiers in fierce battles with Russian forces.

The fight helped forge Finnish national identity, even though the country became independent in 1917 after more than a century as part of the Russian Empire.

“After independence, there was a terrible civil war,” said Carrez. “But when the Winter War started some of those national divisions disappeared. Today the Finnish remember the Winter War as the birth of the nation of Finland.”

The war ended with Finland ceding territory to Russia but retaining independence. Ever since, Finland has adopted a carefully balanced political stance to avoid antagonising its neighbour.

In 1948, Finland and Russia signed the Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, confirming Finnish neutrality in the decades to come.

“Finland didn’t become neutral because it lost the war against the Soviet Union in 1944,” Carrez said. “Finland has always tried to present itself as a neutral country, even between the two world wars. Obviously, it was a coerced neutrality, linked to the presence of a very powerful state at Finland’s border.”

The pros and cons

After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Finland shifted focus towards the West. It made its political allegiance official by joining the European Union in 1995 but kept its military neutral by declining to join NATO. Neighbouring Sweden made the same choice.

Now Finland’s parliament will reopen discussions in April on whether to join NATO after a report on the risks and benefits has been presented. The main advantage would be the military protection provided by NATO allies in case of attack under Article 5 of the NATO treaty.

But this could have drawbacks, too. “Does NATO offer real protection? It could be counterproductive,” said Carrez. Despite historical tensions there are also genuine ties linking Russia to Finland, and a large Russian-speaking community lives there.

Aligning with the West could also damage economic relations with Russia, which is an important trade partner and currently provides more than 97% of all the natural gas used in Finland, according to the EU statistical office Eurostat.

While no request has yet been made, NATO has indicated it would accept applications from either Finland or Sweden to join the alliance.

“Experts have said the process could move relatively fast,” said Ruffa. “It is well known that Sweden and Finland have the necessary military capacity, and there is a high level of interoperability as both countries have already participated in multiple shared missions with NATO.”

This article was translated from the original in French.

Thousands protest over soaring prices across Spain


Many are angry at the government for not taking more decisive action to lower prices (AFP/JORGE GUERRERO)


Sat, March 19, 2022

Thousands of demonstrators hit the streets across Spain on Saturday in protest at the soaring cost of food, light and fuel, which have been exacerbated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The rallies, which took place in Spain's main cities, were called by the far-right Vox party which sought to tap into growing social discontent over the spiralling cost of living that has left many families struggling to pay their bills.

Outside City Hall in Madrid, a crowd of several thousand people gathered, waving hundreds of Spanish flags and chanting angry slogans calling for the resignation of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

"Sanchez, you're rubbish, bring down our bills!" they shouted, between patriotic cries of "Long live Spain!" at a rally demanding government action to lower prices.

"We have the worst possible government.. It's not even a government, it's a misery factory... which plunders and extorts workers through abusive taxes," Vox leader Santiago Abascal told the rally to rousing cheers.

"We will not leave the streets until this illegitimate government is expelled."

This government "is taking everything from us", said Anabel, a 56-year-old demonstrator who didn't give her surname.

"They hike the light and gas prices and say it's because of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, but that's a lie. It was like this before," she told AFP.

"Light prices really affect (my family) because some of us work from home, and we can hardly put the heating on because the price of gas has almost doubled over the past six months."

- 'Abandoning the people' -

Many said government should be lowering taxes to help those struggling.

"A country that raises prices in this way and doesn't help its citizens by partially lowering taxes, is abandoning its people," said Francisco, 53, who is unemployed and didn't give his family name.

"We have to force the government to act -- or remove them, for Spain's sake."

Spain's main right-wing opposition Popular Party (PP) has also demanded the government immediately lower taxes.

"Taxes must be lowered at once! We can't live with prices that are over 7.0 percent and growing," said incoming PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo on Saturday, referring to Spain's annual inflation, which jumped to 7.6 percent in February, its highest level in 35 years.

Last year, energy prices soared by 72 percent in Spain, one of the highest increases within the European Union, and costs have surged even higher since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in a crisis that comes hot on the heels of the pandemic.

On Monday, Spanish lorry drivers declared an open-ended strike over fuel prices which soon mushroomed into multiple roadblocks and protests, triggering supply chain problems.

Rising prices have also prompted the UGT and the CCOO, Spain's two biggest unions, to call a national strike on March 23.

Government minister Felix Bolanos pledged the government would unveil its planned steps to reduce the cost of energy and fuel on March 29, accusing Vox of seeking to profit from a difficult situation.

"The far-right is always stirring up problems and complicating things, no matter how difficult they are... They are not patriots they are troublemakers," he told Spain's public television.

Sanchez is currently on a European tour to lobby for a common EU response to soaring energy prices.

Madrid has for months urged its European partners to change the mechanism which couples electricity prices to the gas market, but its pleas have so far fallen on deaf ears, despite support from Paris.

 Vatican: Women to benefit as Pope Francis unveils reforms

Pope Francis delivered on the reforms promised years ago by allowing any baptized Catholic — man or woman — to lead major departments at the Vatican.

The new constitution will take effect on June 5, replacing one approved in 1988 by Pope John Paul II

Pope Francis on Saturday issued a new constitution for the Vatican's central administration, known as the Curia, stating that any baptized lay Catholics, including women, can head Vatican offices.

Until now, most Vatican departments have been headed by male clerics, usually cardinals.

The new 54-page constitution, called Praedicate Evangelium (Proclaiming the Gospel), took more than nine years to complete.

It replaces the founding constitution Pastor Bonus penned by St. John Paul II in 1988 and will take effect on June 5.

"The pope, bishops and other ordained ministers are not the only evangelizers in the Church," the preamble says, adding that lay men and women "should have roles of government and responsibility."

Another section says "any member of the faithful can head a dicastery (Curia department)" if the pope decides they are qualified and appoints them.

It makes no distinction between lay men and lay women.

The text says choices will be made based on people's professional competence, spiritual life, pastoral experience, sobriety and love for the poor, a sense of community and "ability to recognize the signs of the times."

Years in the making

Francis was elected pope in 2013 in large part on his promise to reform the bulky and inefficient Vatican bureaucracy, which acts as the organ of central governance for the 1.3-billion strong Catholic Church.

He named a Cabinet of cardinal advisers who have met periodically since his election to help him draft the changes.

Much of the reform work has been rolled out piecemeal over the years, with offices consolidated and financial reforms issued.

But the publication of the new document, for now only in Italian, finalizes the process.

The document was released Saturday, the ninth anniversary of Francis' installation as pope.

The Catholic Church has struggled to deal with several scandals of alleged sexual abuse by clergy.

mm/dj(AP, Reuters)

Pope in 'tectonic' shake-up of Vatican

bureaucracy

Issued on: 19/03/2022


Francis, 85, put together a group of cardinals to advise him on how to enact reforms 

Tiziana FABI AFP

Vatican City (AFP) – Pope Francis on Saturday followed through on a promise made ahead of his 2013 election and published a much-anticipated shake-up of the Vatican's powerful governing body.

The new constitution, which comes into effect on June 5, restructures parts of the unruly Roman Curia, and makes increasing the world's 1.2 billion Catholics the church's number one priority.

Among the most significant changes are the possibility for lay and female Catholics to head up Vatican departments, and the incorporation of the pope's sex abuse advisory commission into the Curia.

"Pope Francis has been working on a new organizational structure for the Vatican for nine years. It's a major aspect of his legacy," Joshua McElwee from the National Catholic Reporter said on Twitter.


'Tectonic shift'

Cardinals gathered for the conclave to elect a new pope in 2013 were divided between those who believed there were deep-rooted problems in the Curia and those who wanted to preserve the status quo.

Ex-pope Benedict XVI, who had just resigned, was reported to have tried and failed to clean up a body some even blamed for preventing the church from properly tackling the child sex abuse scandal.

Francis, 85, put together a group of cardinals to advise him over the years on how to reform the Curia, and has already enacted many changes as he moves to modernise the centuries-old institution.

The 54-page text entitled "Proclaiming the Gospel", which replaces a constitution drawn up by pope John Paul II in 1988, creates a new department for evangelisation, to be headed up by Francis himself.

Making himself "Chief Evangelizer" encapsulates a "tectonic shift to a more pastoral, missionary church," David Gibson, director of the Center on Religion and Culture at Fordham University, said on Twitter.

In that vein, Francis says every baptised Christian is a missionary.

"One cannot fail to take this into account in the updating of the Curia, whose reform must provide for involvement of laymen and women, even in roles of government and responsibility," he said.
'Significant'

The constitution, released on the ninth anniversary of the inauguration of Francis' papacy, makes the pope's charity czar, currently Polish Cardinal Konrad Krajewski, head of a department in its own right.

It also brings the Vatican's Commission for the Protection of Minors -- a papal advisory body -- into the office which oversees the canonical investigations of clerical sex abuse cases.

In doing so, the pope is "effectively establishing the Vatican's first safeguarding office", the Tablet's journalist Christopher Lamb said.

Cardinal Sean O'Malley, who heads the Commission, said it was a "significant move forward", which would give institutional weight to the fight against a scourge which has plagued the church globally.

But Marie Collins, an Irish survivor of clerical abuse who served on the commission before resigning in outrage in 2017 over the church's handling of the crisis, slammed it instead as a clear step back.

"The Commission has now officially lost even a semblance of independence," she said on Twitter.

© 2022 AFP