UK

LABOUR CONFERENCE

‘Childcare is an essential part of economic infrastructure – and it needs to be universal’, says Stella Creasy

Daniel Green   

22nd September, 2024

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Childcare is as an essential part of economic infrastructure as roads and public transport and extensive work is required to transform current provision into a universal system, a panel at Labour conference has said.

At a LabourList event on childcare, in partnership with the Centre for Progressive Policy, Labour MP and Mummafesto podcast host Stella Creasy that a functioning childcare system is “absolutely vital” for delivering growth, “in the same way we have a functioning road system and public transport systerm”.

She said that the government first has to “steady the ship” after the mess left behind by the Conservative government in this area.

“There has been a 50 percent increase in the number of closures of childcare settings in the last year, even when that money has gone in – 30 percent of nurseries are using temporary staff to fill the gap,” she explained.

Creasy also said childcare needs to fit into a broader conversation about the kind of workplace and family life we want everybody to have.

“Childcare doen’t sit in a vacuum. It sits in that concept of what makes it worthwhile to be able to work, to be able to have a family, to be able to see your partner and to not be permanently in need of more than four hours of sleep.

“Other countries understand this and they are moving towards what ultimately we need to get to, which is a universal system in stages.

“We are so far away from that in this country and, as a consequence, we are suffering economically.”

‘Devalued and demoralised’

Annabel Smith said that the workers in the childcare sector are “devalued and demoralised”, but said that, with a recruitment and retention crisis, policy areas could help address some of those issues, in particular by introducing pay scales similar to that in the teaching sector.

She welcomed the recognition and political salience of childcare in recent years, particularly following the expansion of free childcare for working parents.

However, she also addressed the “elephant in the room” and said: “The workforce is already under significant pressure. We’ve done work recently on what the full rollout would entail in terms of the workforce – it would drive it up by 52 percent, which would be about 28,000 new full-term workers.

“Clearly, there is a lot of work to do – if you are driving up demand so highly, you also need to drive up supply.”

Tory childcare plans were ‘politics, not policy’

Sarah Ronan, director of the Early Education and Childcare Coalition, also said that the announcement by the previous Conservative government to expand free childcare provision was a “watershed moment in terms of recognising the role of childcare as vital infrastructure” but criticised the lack of consultation around the announcement and said the measure was about “politics, not about policy”.

She said: “It wasn’t about delivering what families really need and what children really need. It was about taking the wind out of Labour’s sails on the issue of childcare.”

Ronan said the way the Conservatives’ policy was introduced provoked a range of problems, particularly for local authorities, and crucially “it also created this sense that subsidised childcare is a reward for going to work, not an enabler of it”.

She said that reform to ensure the scheme benefits the most disadvantaged people would ensure that free childcare provision fulfils its potential.

‘Early years a priority for new government’

Stephen Morgan, minister for early education, said that early years would be a priority for the new administration and was also critical of the Conservative inheritance left for the Labour government, describing the policy as being equivalent to announcing a mission to the Moon without a plan to build the rocket.

He said: “The Tories left a trail of devastation across education, a black hole in our national finances and a pledge without a plan on childcare and early education.

“As a new minister, I’ve been genuinely shocked by how irresponsible the last government was on this.”

Morgan was questioned about the Bell Review into early years, which is understood to have urged Labour to develop and publish a strategy on early childhood education and care in its first year of government.

He said that the findings of the report would “inform what we do next” and said: “If we are going to deliver on giving children the best start in life, we’ve got to work with everyone to make that happen.”

Campaigners and MPs call for air quality to be addressed as a ‘social justice issue’

James Moules   22nd September, 2024

© Henry Franklin/Shutterstock.com

Campaigners and MPs have called for more emphatic action to tackle air pollution in Britain at this year’s Labour Party Conference in Liverpool.

The LabourList event, in partnership with Global Action Plan and Impact on Urban Health, highlighted the challenges posed by high levels of air pollution in many parts of the country.

The issue has been thrust into public conversation in recent years amid health warnings over pollution and measures to combat it such as the London Ultra-Low Emission Zone.

Larissa Lockwood, Director of Clean Air at Global Action Plan, says the issue of clean air is “a social justice issue”. She argued: “It really is a problem that we need to solve. It is a luxury that at the moment we cannot afford.”

A WHO report from 2018 found that 93% of the world’s children under 15-years-old breathe air of poor enough quality to put their health and development at risk.

READ MORE: LabourList events not to miss on Sunday – from our rally to debates on childcare, privatisation and the Greens

Speaking at the event, Dr Sinead Millwood, a GP and clean air activist, called for a major public health campaign against the risks posed by toxic air.

She said: “Air pollution has actually overtaken other risk factors like high blood pressure, diabetes, obesity, smoking, to become the number one leading cause of poor health worldwide.”

The panel also discussed prospective solutions to the air quality crisis, with musician and campaigner Love Ssega suggesting making public transport free in an effort to reduce pollution emissions from mass car use.

He added: “It’s important to highlight the lack of diversity within the UK climate space.”

Adam Jogee, Labour MP for Newcastle-under-Lyme, spoke about specific air quality issues facing his constituency and noted the slightly intangible nature of the threat.

“The late Queen used to say that she had to be seen to be believed. “We won’t be able to see air, but we have to talk about the impact and the consequences the doctors and health professionals have to deal with.”

UK

Grenfell bereaved demand answers over Theresa May’s decision to call public inquiry ahead of police probe

Exclusive: Grenfell Next of Kin claim former prime minister’s decision ‘had massive consequences on our pursuit of our justice’

Andy Gregory
THE INDEPENDENT

TODAY

Grenfell Tower: Angry families say justice has not been done after damning report

Relatives of Grenfell Tower fire victims have demanded answers over Theresa May’s rapid decision to order the public inquiry, which they now fear has delayed the criminal prosecutions of those responsible.

The day after the blaze that killed 72 people on 14 June 2017 – as the fire was yet to be brought under control and people desperately searched for missing loved ones – the former prime minister ordered a full public inquiry to ensure “this terrible tragedy is properly investigated”.

But with the inquiry’s final report published this month, police have said they must now go through its findings “line by line” – meaning charges are not expected to be brought until the end of 2026, with the prospect of trials not commencing until 2029.

Grenfell United make statement on deadly fire inquiry

Police are said to have told Grenfell survivors they have “never known a public inquiry to be conducted at the same time as a criminal investigation”, and bereaved families now fear the complex “web of blame” heard by the inquiry could make it more difficult to prosecute for manslaughter.

The Grenfell Tower fire killed 72 people (Reuters)

The group Grenfell Next of Kin – which includes the immediate relatives of 34 victims – has now written to Baroness May to demand answers over the advice she received before calling the inquiry.

In the letter, seen by The Independent, Kimia Zabihyan, an advocate for the group, wrote: “Your decision only hours after the fire, before you had visited the site even, had massive consequences on our pursuit of our justice.

“It has delayed justice and will essentially make it very difficult if not impossible to bring manslaughter charges... We would like to know what advice you took and if you were aware of the impact that an inquiry going before criminal prosecutions would have on our right to justice?”

Warning that assurances given days after the fire by ministers Alok Sharma and Nick Hurd that the inquiry “would not delay the conclusion” of the police probe have turned out not to be true, Ms Zabihyan asked: “Can you please tell us what advice you and your cabinet had and from whom?”

While London mayor Sadiq Khan had been among those demanding a full inquiry prior to Baroness May announcing it, MP David Lammy – whose friend Khadija Saye died at Grenfell – had already called the fire “corporate manslaughter” and called for arrests.

Seven years later, Ms Zabihyan warned the “web of blame” heard by the inquiry – a term lead counsel Richard Millett KC used to illustrate the magnitude of claims and counterclaims made by cladding firms, developers, the council, and government itself – has almost done “the defence’s job for them”.

“By putting the inquiry first, they gave the organisations and individuals the opportunity to defend themselves – not before a court and judge and jury that could then decide the causation of the deaths – but before a sort of mock court, if you like,” Ms Zabihyan told The Independent.

Members of a support group for the next of kin and families of some of the 72 people killed in the Grenfell Tower Fire in 2017 (PA)

“But now that evidence has to be taken into consideration by the CPS, which means that it would be difficult for the people or organisations named to be charged especially for manslaughter charges. That’s really infuriating the immediate family members, who are saying: ‘Why did you take us down this road?’”


Max Hill, who was director of public prosecutions from 2018 to 2023, told The Independent that he “can certainly see” why Grenfell bereaved and survivors would have wanted criminal investigation and prosecution before the public inquiry.

“The police and the CPS are used to complex investigations,” he said. “Of course, there is a mass of detail, look at other major and complex investigations and prosecutions. The task at hand is to cut through the detail.”

While criminal probes “would have taken years in any event” and the information gathered by the inquiry will help the police, the immunity given to some inquiry witnesses means police and prosecutors will still have to gather evidence that will be admissible and reliable in court, Mr Hill added.

Scotland Yard’s Grenfell lead, Detective Superintendent Garry Moncrieff, previously told The Times that manslaughter and homicide “is at the heart of our investigation”, but said that “manslaughter is one of the hardest of cases to prove”.

He said that in the case of Grenfell “you have got so many people and companies that are involved”.

In the same interview, Deputy Assistant Commissioner Stuart Cundy repeatedly said “confidently” that his officers will submit charging files to prosecutors.

This week, a House of Lords committee called for a major overhaul of the public inquiry system, including “better decisions at the start of an inquiry to expedite its work, reduce costs and ensure victims and survivors are properly involved”.

Baroness May was approached for comment.

 CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M BUSINESS AS USUAL

Australia supermarkets sued over fake discount claims

Tiffanie Turnbull
BBC News, Sydney


Australia's consumer watchdog is suing the country's two biggest supermarket chains, alleging they falsely claimed to have permanently dropped the prices of hundreds of items.

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) claims Coles and Woolworths broke consumer law by temporarily raising prices before lowering them to a value either the same as or higher than the original cost.

Coles said it would defend itself against the allegations, while Woolworths said it would review the claims.

The grocery giants, which account for two thirds of the Australian market, have come under increasing scrutiny in the past year over alleged price gouging and anti-competitive practices.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the alleged conduct, if proven to be true, is "completely unacceptable".

"This is not in the Australian spirit. Customers don't deserve to be treated as fools," he said at a press conference, at which he also revealed draft legislation for a previously promised "code of conduct" for supermarkets.

ACCC chair Gina Cass-Gottlieb said Coles and Woolworths have spent years marketing their 'Prices Dropped' and 'Down Down' promotions, which Australian shoppers now understand to represent a sustained reduction in the regular prices of products.

But in many cases "the discounts were, in fact, illusory", she added.

The watchdog's investigation - sparked by complaints and the ACCC's own monitoring - found Woolworths had misled customers about 266 products over 20 months, and Coles for 245 products across 15 months.

The products included everything from pet food, Band-Aid plasters and mouthwash, to Australian favourites like Arnott's Tim Tam biscuits, Bega Cheese and Kellogg's cereal.

The ACCC estimated that the two companies “sold tens of millions" of the affected products and "derived significant revenue from those sales".

“Many consumers rely on discounts to help their grocery budgets stretch further, particularly during this time of cost of living pressures,” Ms Cass-Gottlieb said.

"It is critical that Australian consumers are able to rely on the accuracy of pricing and discount claims."

The ACCC is seeking that the Federal Court of Australia impose "significant" penalties on the two firms, and an order forcing them to increase their charitable meal delivery programs.

In a statement, Coles said the company's own costs were rising which led to an increase in product prices.

It had "sought to strike an appropriate balance" between managing that and "offering value to customers" by restarting promotions "as soon as possible" after new prices were set, it said.

The company takes consumer law "extremely seriously" and "places great emphasis on building trust with all stakeholders", it added.

Woolworths said in a statement that it would engage with the ACCC over the claims.

"Our customers are telling us they want us to work even harder to deliver meaningful value to them and it's important they can trust the value they see when shopping our stores."

Amid growing scrutiny of the supermarkets, the government commissioned a review of the country's existing Food and Grocery Code of Conduct.

The review recommended a stronger, mandatory code of conduct be introduced and policed by the ACCC, so they can protect suppliers as well as consumers.

The new code will set out standards for the companies' dealings with providers, who say they are being unfairly squeezed, and introduce massive fines for breaches.

Haul of secret intelligence material may be trapped on tech tycoon's sunken superyacht


By CNN

 Sep 23, 2024

Specialist divers surveying the wreckage of the $US40 million ($58m) superyacht that sank off Sicily last month, killing seven people including British tech tycoon Mike Lynch, have asked for heightened security to guard the vessel, over concerns that sensitive data locked in its safes may interest foreign governments, sources said.

Italian prosecutors who have opened up a criminal probe into multiple charges of manslaughter and negligent shipwreck think the 56-metre yacht, the Bayesian, may contain highly sensitive data tied to a number of Western intelligence services, four sources familiar with the investigation and salvage operation said.

Lynch was associated with British, American and other intelligence services through his various companies, including the cyber security company he founded, Darktrace.

British tech magnate Mike Lynch was linked to western intelligence services through his businesses. (AP Photo/Michael Liedtke, File)

That company was sold to Chicago-based private equity firm Thoma Bravo in April. Lynch, whose wife's company Revtom Limited owned the vessel, was also an adviser to British prime ministers David Cameron and Theresa May on science, technology and cyber security during their tenures, according to British government and public Darktrace records.

The sunken vessel, lying on the seabed at a depth of some 50m, is thought to have watertight safes containing two super-encrypted hard drives that hold highly classified information, including passcodes and other sensitive data, an official involved in the salvage plans, who asked not to be named, told CNN. Specialist divers with remote cameras have searched the boat extensively.

Initially, local law enforcement feared that would-be thieves might try to reach the wreckage to find expensive jewellery and other objects of value still onboard the yacht, according to divers with the fire brigade who spoke with CNN.

Now they are concerned that the wreckage, expected to be raised in the coming weeks as part of the criminal investigation into the tragedy, will also be of interest to foreign governments, including Russia and China. They have requested that the yacht be guarded closely, both above water and with underwater surveillance.

"A formal request has been accepted and implemented for additional security of the wreckage until it can be raised," an official with the Sicilian civil protection authority who is assisting with the criminal investigation confirmed to CNN.

Specialist divers at the site of the Bayesian wreck off Sicily. (Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images/File via CNN Newsource" (cnn)

Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah, American lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife Neda, British banker Jonathan Bloomer and his wife Judy, and the yacht's onboard chef Recaldo Thomas died when the ship sank in a violent storm in the early hours of the morning.

Preliminary results from autopsies suggest that the Bloomer and Morvillo couples died of suffocation or "dry drowning" when the oxygen in an air bubble in a sleeping cabin ran out. Autopsy results for Lynch and his daughter were less clear.

The chef, whose body was found outside the vessel, died by drowning, the coroner said. Toxicology reports on the dead have not yet been released, but none had suffered any physical injuries when the boat went down.

Lynch's wife Angela Bacares and 14 others survived, including the captain James Cutfield, who, along with a deckhand and the yacht's engine room manager, is under investigation for multiple manslaughter and causing a negligent shipwreck. They have all been allowed to leave Italy.

Some of the 15 survivors, of whom nine were crew members and six were passengers, including a one-year-old girl, reportedly told prosecutors that Lynch "did not trust cloud services" and always kept data drives in a secure compartment of the yacht wherever he sailed, a source with the prosecutor's office told CNN.



James Cutfield, the New Zealand captain of the superyacht that sank in a storm off Italy last month. (Supplied)

None of the crew or passengers who survived the incident were tested for drugs or alcohol because they were in a "state of shock," authorities said during a news conference following the recovery of the bodies.

Morvillo represented Lynch when he was acquitted in a criminal fraud case in the US in June tied to the takeover by Hewlett Packard of his software company Autonomy, and survivors told investigators that the cruise was a celebration of that acquittal, according to the assistant prosecutor, Raffaele Cammarano.

Though Lynch was acquitted of any criminal wrongdoing in the US, Hewlett Packard has indicated it will not drop its bid to collect a $7 billion civil payout from Lynch's estate, awarded by a British court in 2022.

In what appears to be a tragic coincidence, Lynch's business partner Stephen Chamberlain — who was his co-defendant in the US fraud case and the former chief operating officer of Darktrace — died on August 19, the same day the Bayesian sank, after being hit by a car while out jogging two days earlier.

A spokesperson for the prosecutor's office told CNN that Cutfield told them Lynch had learned of Chamberlain's serious condition and had planned to cut the cruise short to return to the UK to see his business partner, who had been on life support.

The 56-metre British-flagged Bayesian sank off Sicily within 16 minutes of a storm hitting. (Perini Navi)

The Bayesian sank a few hours before Chamberlain died in the hospital, his lawyer said. Lynch would not have known of his partner's death, and Chamberlain was in a coma so would not have known about the shipwreck, Chamberlain's legal counsel said.

Local prosecutor Ambrogio Cartosio said no personal effects, including computers, jewellery or Lynch's hard drives had been recovered from the vessel. However, the onboard hard drives and surveillance cameras tied to the yacht's navigation system have been brought to investigators to determine if there is any usable data that might indicate how the yacht sank within 16 minutes of the storm hitting.

The vessel did not have a traditional black box or voyage data recorder to record navigation data or audio on the bridge.

After divers complete surveys of the wreck this week, they will make suggestions for how to best raise the 473-tonne vessel without spilling any of the 18,000 litres of oil and fuel still onboard, and how to make sure any sensitive data does not fall into the wrong hands.
The costs of raising the ship will fall to its owner, Lynch's widow, as is mandated by Italian maritime law.

UK

High levels of growth unlikely to reduce poverty, charity warns Government

The JRF said its analysis showed the ‘risks of the Government’s decision to pursue economic growth before improving the lives of families’.


The Joseph Rowntree Foundation said new research showed that a ‘strong economy alone will not move the dial on poverty during this Parliament’ (Yui Mok/PA)

PA Wire
Sam Hall

The Government “risks leaving millions behind” as even very high levels of growth are unlikely to reduce poverty, a charity has warned.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) said new research raised “questions about the Chancellor’s growth-first strategy”, as it showed a strong economy alone “will not move the dial on poverty during this Parliament”.

The anti-poverty charity said its analysis showed the “risks of the Government’s decision to pursue economic growth before improving the lives of families”.

The Government’s current approach not only risks leaving millions behind who can least afford it, it also risks failing on its own terms to deliver sustained and resilient economic growth

Alfie Stirling, Joseph Rowntree Foundation

The JRF said it was calling on the Government to “see poverty reduction as part of its approach to long-term and lasting growth”.

It added that investing in housing, welfare and public services “must be part of the strategy for securing lasting growth, not something that can wait to come later”.

The Government said it was “taking action” to tackle poverty, adding that the “best way to improve living standards for everyone is to get the economy growing”.Analysis by the JRF based on the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) central estimates suggests poverty will remain broadly flat at around 14-and-a-half million people between 2024 and the end of 2028.

The JRF said that this does not improve “even if the UK has the highest GDP per capita growth in the G7 and achieves an 80% employment rate”.

The charity said analysis of a strong economy, using higher earnings and employment forecasts than the OBR’s, “does very little to reduce working age poverty or child poverty”.

This is because the gap in living standards between those on low incomes and middle incomes “remains broadly unchanged”, with the charity forecasting that working age poverty would remain broadly flat at just over eight million and child poverty would remain at around 4.3 to 4.5 million.

Alfie Stirling, director and chief economist of the JRF, said: “The Government’s current approach not only risks leaving millions behind who can least afford it, it also risks failing on its own terms to deliver sustained and resilient economic growth.

We also recognise the dire inheritance we face with more people living in poverty now than 14 years ago

Government spokesperson


“Unless business investment is matched with stronger social foundations from the start, growth will be harder to achieve now, and easier to lose to the next economic shock.”


A Government spokesperson said: “We know the best way to improve living standards for everyone is to get the economy growing, and that is why the Chancellor has vowed to lead the most pro-growth, pro-business Treasury in the country’s history.


“We also recognise the dire inheritance we face with more people living in poverty now than 14 years ago.


“We are taking action to tackle this, including extending the Household Support Fund, developing a strategy to reduce child poverty, and taking first steps to deliver a genuine living wage – alongside measures to boost housing and improve public services.”

 

Artificial General Intelligence: A Definitive Exploration Of AI’s Next Frontier – Analysis

 September 23, 2024  

By Girish Linganna

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is a field within artificial intelligence (AI) where researchers are working to develop a computer system that can surpass human intelligence in various tasks.

These systems might understand themselves and control their actions, including changing their own code. They could learn to solve problems on their own, just like humans, without needing to be taught.

The term “Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) ” was first used in a 2007 book, which is a collection of essays edited by computer scientist Ben Goertzel and AI researcher Cassio Pennachin.

However, the idea of Artificial General Intelligence has been around for many years in the history of AI and is often seen in popular science fiction books and movies.

The AI systems we use today, like simple machine learning algorithms on Facebook or advanced models like ChatGPT, are known as “narrow” AI. This means they are designed to handle specific tasks rather than having general intelligence like humans.

This means these AI systems can do at least one job, like recognizing images, better than humans. However, they are only able to do that specific task or similar actions based on the data they were trained with.

AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence, would go beyond just using the data it was trained on. It would have human-like abilities to reason and understand in many areas of life and knowledge. This means it could think and make decisions in the same way a person does, applying logic and context to different situations, not just following pre-programmed patterns.

Since AGI has never been created, scientists don’t fully agree on what it could mean for humanity. There is uncertainty about the potential risks, which ones are more likely, and what kind of impact it could have on society.

Some people have previously thought that AGI might never be possible, but now many scientists and tech experts believe it could be achieved in the next few years. Notable figures, including computer scientist Ray Kurzweil and Silicon Valley leaders like Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk, are among those who share this view.

What are the advantages and potential dangers of AGI?

AI has already shown many benefits across different areas, helping with scientific research and saving people time in everyday tasks.Newer tools, like content creation systems, can produce artwork for marketing or write emails based on how a user typically communicates.However, these tools can only complete the tasks they were specifically trained for, using the data that developers provided to them.

AGI, on the other hand, could bring a whole new range of benefits for humanity, especially in situations that need advanced problem-solving skills.

In a blog post from February 2023, three months after ChatGPT launched, OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman suggested that AGI could, in theory, boost resource availability, accelerate the global economy, and lead to groundbreaking scientific discoveries that expand what we believe is possible.

Altman also mentioned that AGI could give people amazing new abilities, allowing everyone to get help with almost any mental task. This would greatly enhance human creativity and problem-solving skills.

However, AGI also comes with significant risks. According to Musk in 2023, these risks include “misalignment,” where the system’s goals might not align with those of the people controlling it, and the possibility, though small, that a future AGI system could pose a threat to humanity’s survival.

A review published in August 2021 in the Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Artificial Intelligence highlighted several potential risks of future AGI systems, even though they could bring “huge benefits for humanity.”

The review pointed out several risks related to AGI, such as AGI breaking away from human control, being given or developing dangerous goals, creating unsafe AGI, AGI systems lacking proper ethics, morals, and values, poor management of AGI, and the possibility of existential threats, according to the study’s authors.

The authors also suggested that future AGI technology could potentially improve itself by developing smarter versions and even changing its original programmed goals.

The researchers also warned that some groups might create AGI for harmful purposes, and even well-intentioned AGI could lead to “disastrous unintended consequences,” according to a report by LiveScience.

When is AGI expected to arrive?

There are differing opinions on whether humans can truly create a system as advanced as AGI, and when that might happen. Surveys of AI experts suggest that many believe AGI could be developed by the end of this century, though opinions have shifted over time.

In the 2010s, most experts believed that AGI was about 50 years away. However, more recently, this estimate has been shortened to anywhere between 5 and 20 years.

Recently, several experts have predicted that an AGI system could emerge within this decade.

In his book The Singularity is Nearer (2024, Penguin), Kurzweil predicted that reaching AGI would signal the start of the technological singularity (a point where AI surpasses human intelligence), as reported by LiveScience.

This moment will mark a point where there is no turning back, leading to rapid technological growth that becomes uncontrollable and permanent.

Kurzweil predicts that after reaching AGI, superintelligence will emerge by the 2030s. By 2045, he believes people will be able to connect their brains directly to AI, enhancing human intelligence and consciousness.

Some scientists believe that AGI could be developed very soon.

For example, Goertzel has predicted that we could reach the singularity by 2027, while Shane Legg, co-founder of DeepMind, believes AGI could arrive by 2028.

Musk has also predicted that AI will surpass human intelligence by the end of 2025.

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Girish Linganna

Girish Linganna is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru. He is also Director of ADD Engineering Components, India, Pvt. Ltd, a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. You can reach him at: girishlinganna@gmail.com

 

The Rule Of Law, Democracy, And Economic Growth: Navigating Complex Interdependencies – Analysis

 September 23, 2024 

By Simon Hutagalung

The relationship between the rule of law, democracy, and economic growth constitutes a subject of extensive debate within political and economic discourse. Each of these three concepts plays an essential role in shaping the developmental trajectories of nations.

The rule of law ensures that legal frameworks are respected and enforced, fostering stability and fairness. Democracy empowers citizens by providing them with a voice in political decision-making, while economic growth focuses on increasing a nation’s wealth and enhancing the living standards of its populace. This essay contends that, although the interplay among the rule of law, democracy, and economic growth is complex and context-dependent, a robust legal system combined with democratic governance is generally indispensable for fostering sustainable economic development. 

The rule of law is foundational to economic growth as it creates an environment of predictability and security crucial for both domestic and international investments. By ensuring that laws are applied equally to all citizens and businesses, the rule of law promotes fairness and reduces corruption. When property rights are safeguarded and contracts are enforceable, businesses are more likely to invest in long-term projects, which consequently leads to job creation, innovation, and wealth generation. In nations where the rule of law is weak, economic uncertainty prevails, as businesses cannot trust that their investments will be protected.

This scenario is particularly pronounced in countries with corrupt legal systems, where political elites may manipulate the law for personal benefit, thereby stifling economic competition and innovation. A functioning legal system not only establishes the conditions for economic stability but also facilitates the growth of democracy. In democratic frameworks, the rule of law serves as a check on power, ensuring that government officials are held accountable to the same legal standards as ordinary citizens. This is crucial for the protection of civil liberties, the enforcement of contracts, and the development of a free and open marketplace.

Democracies characterised by a strong rule of law typically demonstrate greater transparency, thereby reducing opportunities for corruption and abuse of power. Furthermore, citizens in democratic nations are more likely to engage in economic activities when they feel assured that their rights will be upheld and that the government remains accountable to them. Democracy has been extensively analysed regarding its impact on economic growth. Proponents of democratic governance contend that it fosters political stability, inclusivity, and the development of policies that benefit a broad segment of the population. Democracies typically invest more in human capital—such as education and healthcare—thereby promoting innovation and facilitating long-term economic growth.

Additionally, democratic systems afford opportunities for dissent and public discourse, which can contribute to superior policy outcomes. Conversely, critics of democracy argue that democratic governance may exhibit inefficiencies stemming from short-term electoral cycles and the influence of special interest groups. Governments operating within democratic frameworks might prioritise populist policies that jeopardise economic stability, favouring immediate gains over sustainable long-term development.

Empirical evidence regarding the correlation between democracy and economic growth presents a mixed picture. Certain democracies, such as the United States and Germany, have achieved sustained economic growth, while others have experienced stagnation or volatility. For instance, India, recognised as the world’s largest democracy, has grappled with pervasive poverty and inequality despite many years of democratic governance. In contrast, some authoritarian regimes, notably China, have experienced rapid economic growth without the presence of democratic institutions. China’s centralised decision-making framework has facilitated the swift implementation of economic reforms, often circumventing the slow and contentious legislative processes typical in democracies.

Nonetheless, a debate persists regarding the long-term sustainability of such growth in the absence of democratic reforms, as citizens in authoritarian regimes may eventually demand greater political freedoms and increased accountability. The interrelationship between the rule of law, democracy, and economic growth becomes more evident when scrutinising specific case studies. South Korea epitomises a country that has successfully transitioned from authoritarianism to democracy while maintaining robust economic growth.

Following decades of military governance, South Korea democratized in the late 1980s, during which its economy continued to thrive, driven by strong legal institutions, significant investments in education, and technological innovation. In contrast, countries characterised by weak rule of law and unstable democratic institutions, particularly in certain regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, often encounter substantial obstacles in achieving sustained economic growth. In these areas, political instability, corruption, and ineffective governance hinder both democratic advancement and economic development. While the rule of law and democracy are often regarded as prerequisites for economic growth, there exist notable exceptions to this assertion. Some scholars contend that authoritarian regimes can, in certain instances, surpass democracies in terms of economic growth, particularly in the short term.

Singapore is frequently cited as a prominent example of a non-democratic state characterised by a strong rule of law and a thriving economy. Its highly centralised government, combined with a robust legal framework, has facilitated its development into one of the world’s most prosperous nations. However, such models are not without their critics, as the absence of political freedoms may lead to social discontent and potentially undermine long-term stability.

In conclusion, the relationship between the rule of law, democracy, and economic growth is complex, and its effectiveness is contingent upon the specific context in which these elements are applied. A strong rule of law establishes the necessary conditions for both democracy and economic growth by promoting fairness, transparency, and accountability. While democracy possesses the potential to foster inclusive and sustainable economic growth, it can also encounter challenges related to political instability and inefficiency.

In certain instances, authoritarian regimes may achieve rapid economic development; however, their long-term prospects remain uncertain in the absence of the democratisation of political institutions. For nations striving to stimulate growth, investing in the rule of law and democratic governance offers a more stable and sustainable trajectory toward development. Nevertheless, policymakers must be acutely aware of the complexities and nuances involved in balancing political freedoms, legal accountability, and economic progress.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own.

References

• Acemoglu, Daron, and James A. Robinson. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. Crown Business, 2012.
• Barro, Robert J. “Democracy and Growth.” Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 1, no. 1, 1996, pp. 1-27.
• North, Douglass C. Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance. Cambridge University Press, 1990.
• Sen, Amartya. Development as Freedom. Oxford University Press, 1999.
• Zakaria, Fareed. The Future of Freedom: Illiberal Democracy at Home and Abroad. W.W. Norton, 2003.

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Simon Hutagalung

Simon Hutagalung is a retired diplomat from the Indonesian Foreign Ministry and received his master's degree in political science and comparative politics from the City University of New York. The opinions expressed in his articles are his own.