Scientists warn rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers will impact us all



Arshad R. Zargar
Thu, June 22, 2023 

New Delhi — Glaciers in the Hindu Kush region of the Himalaya mountains are melting at the fastest rate ever and could shed as much as 80% of their ice by the end of this century if global warming continues unchecked, a group of international scientists warned in an alarming new report.

The study says the melting of the glaciers will directly impact billions of people in Asia — causing floods, landslides, avalanches and food shortages as farmland is inundated. Indirectly, the melting of such a vast reserve of fresh water could impact countries as far away as the United States, even the whole of humanity, according to the report by the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

The academic paper warns the ice and snow reserves in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) region are melting at an "unprecedented" rate and that the environmental changes to the sensitive region are "largely irreversible."

Glaciers are seen in the Pamir Mountains, a range in Central Asia formed by the junction of the Himalayas, Tian Shan, Karakoram, Kunlun and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, as seen in a file photo taken from the Karakoram Highway, in Xinjiang, China. / Credit: The Pamir Mountains are a mountain range in Central Asia formed by the junction of the Himalayas, Tian Shan, Karakoram, Kunlun and Hindu Kush mountain ranges. They are among the world's highest mountains and since Victorian times they have been known as 

The HKH region spans roughly 2,175 miles, from Afghanistan to Myanmar, and is home to the highest mountains in the world, including Mount Everest. It contains the largest volume of ice on Earth outside the two polar regions and is the source of water for 12 rivers that flow through 16 Asian nations.

Those rivers provide fresh water to some 240 million people living in the HKH region, and about 1.65 billion people further downstream, the report says.

For all of those people, the melting of the glaciers would be a disaster. The report says they will face extreme weather events and crop loss that will force mass-migration.

Deadly floods and avalanches in the Himalayan region have already increased over the past decade or so, and scientists have linked the greater frequency and intensity of the disasters to climate change and global warming.

The ICIMOD report lays out three potential scenarios for the glaciers of the HKH: If there is a 1.5-2 degree Celsius increase in the Earth's average temperature above pre-industrial levels, the glaciers will lose 30% to 50% of their ice volume by 2100. If the global temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius, the glaciers could lose 75% of their ice and, with a 4-degree rise, the researchers say there will be a loss of up to 80% of the ice in the HKH.

"These projections are of very high confidence as we say in the scientific language," Dr. Philippus Wester, the ICIMOD's Chief Scientist on Water Resources Management and the lead editor of the report, told CBS News. "In layman's language, it means we have no doubt whatsoever that at 2 degrees Celsius global warming, we will lose 50% of the glacial ice mass in the region."

The report notes that the Himalayan glaciers lost ice at a rate 65% faster between 2010 and 2019 than over the previous decade (2001-2010).

"This is a lot, this is alarming," Wester told CBS News."On human time scales, we have never seen glacial melt this rapid, this fast… this is unprecedented."

Other research shows Mount Everest's glaciers have lost the equivalent of 2,000 years' worth of ice over just the past three decades. In a 2019 report, the ICIMOD said the Himalayan glaciers of the region would lose at least one third of their ice if the average global temperature was limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But with new technology and more data becoming available over the last five years, the scientists found circumstances worse than they expected, Wester said.

Global impact of the melting Himalayan glaciers

The impacts of the rapid glacial melt in the Himalayas will be felt around the world, Izabella Koziell, deputy director general of the ICIMOD, CBS News this week [video available at the top of this article].

"Even if this feels remote to us sitting far away, it is going to affect us — whether that is through mass people movement or sea-level rise. When the glaciers in the Himalayas melt, the ice sheets in Greenland, Arctic and Antarctic are also melting. This means there will be sea level rise, there will be quite dramatic changes in ocean circulation as a result of increase in fresh water into oceans, and this will have huge impacts on us," Koziell said.

"The people who are losing their livelihoods, of which there are 2 billion people — that's a quarter of the world's population — where will they go? They will have to go and find safer places and we will have to offer those safer places for them to live," Koziell said.

Earlier this month, scientists warned at the Bonn Climate Change Conference of the worrying speed and scale of ice-melt worldwide. Another study, published last year, said the Arctic could start to see periods during the summer without any ice remaining at all by 2030, even if emissions are cut drastically.

"Clarion call" for urgent climate action

Scientists are calling for urgent action to slow global warming to preserve as much of the ice mass in the Himalayas as possible.

"To prevent additional ice loss, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced through the use of clean and renewable energy sources… cooperation among Himalayan nations and international organizations is required," Professor Anjal Prakash, an author on the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), told CBS News.

"We need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as we can. The less melt we have, the better it is because it takes such a long time to recover from that loss," the ICIMOD's lead editor Wester told CBS News.

The U.N.'s IPCC says limiting warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025, and be reduced by 43% by 2030. The world is not currently on course to keep those targets within reach.

"This is a clarion call," Wester told CBS News. "The world is not doing enough because we are still seeing an increase in the emissions year-on-year. We are not even at the point of a turnaround in terms of emissions."

"The change we are causing now will not stop even if we keep emissions at current levels," Koziell told CBS News, but she added that "all hope is not lost."

"If we commit to decarbonisation now, we still have an open window. We seriously need to keep that window open," Koziell said. "We need to seriously commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and whatever investments we make now, will be a benefit for the future."

Opinion

Restoring mountain ecosystems in the Himalayas is a global Imperative

The Hindu Kush Himalaya faces a critical need for the restoration of its diverse ecosystems, underpinned by the indispensable stewardship of Indigenous communities and local efforts


Freshwater ecosystems such as lakes, rivers, and wetlands – like these in Band-e Amir National Park, Afghanistan – provide an array of services important to livelihoods, economic development and environmental resilience. (Image: Alex Treadway / ICIMOD, CC BY-NC)


Bandana Shakya

May 25, 2024


Mountain ecosystems, including rangelands, wetlands, peatlands and both alpine and temperate forests, are unique habitats characterised by complex geography and rich biodiversity. These ecosystems are integral to the cultures and traditions of diverse Indigenous communities, providing essential goods and services such as food, water, climate regulation and cultural aesthetics. Despite their high economic value, they face profound challenges, primarily driven by global and local changes.

The degradation of mountain ecosystems poses a direct threat to the sustained provision of crucial goods and services. There is an urgent need for the policy community, national governments, regional bodies and the private sector to come together and significantly invest in the restoration of mountain ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH). While there are several commendable efforts underway, they are not sufficient to address the magnitude and complexity of the challenges at hand. Additionally, there is a global movement to bring mountain-related issues to the forefront of international discourse and to forge robust global partnerships for mountain ecosystems.

Outlined below are key policy priorities for the HKH:

Strengthening Indigenous stewardship: Indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs) have been the traditional stewards of these vital resources. Existing practices, including payment for ecosystem services, have incentivised efforts to preserve upstream ecosystem integrity, benefiting downstream areas. Further incentivising landscape practices rooted in traditional ecological knowledge is crucial for securing the rights of local communities and enhancing their leadership and ownership. Supporting slow food movements and ethnic cuisines, along with strengthening herder networks are essential. Efforts to secure conservation corridors, community-conserved areas and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs) are key for promoting IPLC-led inclusive landscape governance.

A herding community, with their pack animals, traverses the rocky and rugged paths of Bhutan’s Laya landscape. This journey highlights the challenging terrain and the traditional modes of transportation that are integral to the region. (Image: Jitendra Bajracharya / ICIMOD)

Scaling nature-based solutions (NbS): NbS such as forest rehabilitation, nature tourism, rangeland restoration and springshed management are long-term integrated solutions that must be scaled up to generate climate, biodiversity and sustainable development co-benefits. The Himalayan Resilience Enabling Action Programme under the Climate Action for Resilient Asia (CARA) initiative is working to scale these solutions to match the rate of degradation and address societal challenges related to water, livelihoods and disaster risk.

Innovating for biodiversity and sustainability: Mechanisms such as payments for ecosystem services, biodiversity grants and impact investments need to be both inclusive and fair to empower local communities and attract private sector engagement. Government incentives, tax credits and green bonds could further stimulate sustainable and inclusive practices. It is imperative to explore innovative policy and financing avenues to ensure the vitality of mountain ecosystems for future generations and balance environmental preservation with socio-economic development.
Global partnerships investments and pooling resources

The recently adopted Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework emphasises the urgent need for increased financial investment in biodiversity actions. However, the current level of global financing for nature, and particularly for mountain biodiversity investment, remains inadequate. To enhance overall climate resilience, biodiversity conservation and sustainable development for both mountain and downstream communities, it is crucial to boost investments in mountain ecosystems and expand the scope of community-driven actions.

Cross-learning among countries and the sharing of best practices are essential strategies for building and expanding partnerships aimed at mobilising financial resources. The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) Call to Action, endorsed by a ministerial declaration signed by the eight relevant countries, plays a pivotal role in reinforcing regional cooperation for mountain areas and facilitating collaborative actions to tackle transboundary issues such as climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution, poverty and landscape degradation. The success of such initiatives hinges on the collaborative efforts of governments, non-governmental agencies, the private sector, local communities and international development partners to come together and pool their resources to amplify their joint efforts.

A red panda perched in a tree. The Hindu Kush Himalayan region (HKH) is an important biodiversity hotspot. (Image: Jitendra Raj Bajracharya / ICIMOD, CC BY-NC)
Making the business case for mountain ecosystems

The economic case for conservation: Mountains, recognised as biodiversity hotspots, are crucial for the preservation of Earth’s biological richness. Adopting knowledge-based approaches for biodiversity mapping, monitoring and valuation is essential. These methods provide crucial insights that can drive the adoption of NbS. Economic valuation and natural capital accounting are key tools that can inform investment decisions and help allocate more resources towards the conservation of mountain landscapes, particularly those maintained by IPLCs.

Environmental resilience: Mountain ecosystems serve as systemic enablers that foster positive relationships between nature and people. High-altitude rangelands, peatlands and wetlands play a significant role in climate-related decision-making and investments aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, especially given their role as carbon sinks. Strategic investments are needed to highlight the link between mountain ecosystems and essential resources like food, water and energy security. Moreover, there is a need for incentives to expand mechanisms that prevent human-wildlife conflicts and enhance capacities, as well as to support innovative sustainable land-use practices. These efforts are fundamental in maintaining the ecological balance and ensuring the resilience of these environments

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RECOMMENDEDCan the Himalayan region go green as economies flounder?

Sustainable development: Mountain ecosystems in the Himalayas are fundamental to the traditional livelihoods of mountain communities, offering vast potential for driving green economies. Initiatives from organic agriculture to ecotourism and renewable energy harness these ecosystems’ unique attributes to promote sustainable economic growth. Recognising mountain ecosystems as engines of sustainable development can bolster prosperity both within and beyond these regions, boost the global economy and help attain the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs).

As we progress through this UN decade on ecosystem restoration, there is a clear urgency for substantial global investment and incentives dedicated to the restoration of HKH ecosystems. Restoring these ecosystems is not just a regional concern but a global imperative. These ecosystems provide not only measurable benefits but also hold immense intrinsic and existential value. Their preservation is crucial for maintaining the natural heritage and cultural significance that enrich our global community.

Innovative financing mechanisms, blending public and private finance, along with other incentive measures, are essential for the effective restoration and regeneration of critical ecosystems in the HKH. Let us act collectively to ensure the resilience of mountain economies and landscapes, from which benefits flow into river basins downstream and extend to the global community at large.

The author is coordinator for the Action Area on Restoring and Regenerating Landscapes at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD). The views expressed are her own

Afghanistan: Power struggle in the Hindu Kush

NATO forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan. But Kabul's neighbors have conflicting interests. The omens are not good for a country that has often suffered from its strategic location. What lies ahead for Afghanistan?

As the NATO troops withdraw, the problems remain

For over four decades now, Afghanistan has been ravaged by war. In all that time, one thing has been unchanged: Afghanistan remains a "graveyard for empires," a view once again highlighted by the pullout of US forces and their allies. And one factor is a cruel constant in this country's desperately troubled history: its central strategic location.

Afghanistan is a country of many peoples and even more neighbors — both directly and indirectly. And they could not be more different: from Iran in the west, the two hostile nuclear powers Pakistan and India in the east, China in the northeast, the oil- and gas-rich states of central Asia in the north.

For a variety of different reasons, war-ravaged Afghanistan is of crucial interest to all of these players. And for all of them, the strategic options will change when — after a military intervention that lasted 20 years — there are no longer any Western forces stationed in the Hindu Kush.

No wonder, then, that these neighboring countries are beginning to step up their activities. Thomas Ruttig of the Afghan Analysts Network does not expect any significant calming of the situation in the near future.

"The individual countries have seriously conflicting interests and many of them are playing out bilateral or multilateral rivalries or tensions on Afghan territory," Ruttig told DW.

Indian and Pakistan: Dangerous disputes

Regional tensions are particularly intense between India and Pakistan. India is one of the Afghan government's main allies and, not only because of its connection with the Kashmiri terrorist organizations including Lashkar-e Taiba, Delhi views the Taliban as a threat to its own security.

Meanwhile, despite all the denials from Islamabad, Pakistan continues to see the Taliban as "its best card in the Afghanistan game," said Ruttig. He believes that Islamabad sees Afghanistan as its own backyard and therefore tries all it can to have a profound influence on how the country is governed.

"As far as Afghanistan is concerned, it would not be advisable to invest too much faith in Pakistan's goodwill," said Ruttig.

Concern ahead of US troop departure

Pakistan's regional influence could get an additional boost, with the country being talked about as a possible location for a new US military base. "This is being hotly debated in Washington," said Andrew Watkins, an Afghanistan analyst from the International Crisis Group.

"What we're talking about is the deployment of air assets and not sizable ground forces — about maintaining the ability to conduct a drone war or even deploy standard Air Force assets. Because that is highly controversial in domestic politics in Pakistan, it will be something that they do in relative secret and that most of us will only learn about years after the fact," he said.

While the Pakistani government has publicly denied any intention of giving US forces access to its military facilities, the Taliban came out at the end of May with a preventive statement urging Afghanistan's neighbors not to host US bases.


Pakistan sees the Taliban as its 'best card' in Afghanistan, as Prime Minister Imran Khan meets with Taliban leaders

China: Security 'free rider'?

For its part, Beijing views the US withdrawal from Afghanistan with very mixed feelings. Gu Xuewu, director of the Center for Global Studies in Bonn, Germany, said that on the one hand, China welcomes the decision to pull back forces from its immediate neighborhood. At the same time, however, China has profited from US efforts over the last two decades to contain the influence of the militant Islamist Taliban.

"The main fear is Xinjiang. As far as I can see, for Beijing everything else is secondary," said Gu. Xinjiang is a northwestern region of China, inhabited by the Muslim Uyghur people, which borders Afghanistan.

Islamist Uyghur groups, also operating in Afghanistan, are viewed as a serious concern in China — above all since the so-called "Islamic State" (IS) has been active in the Hindu Kush, said Angela Stanzel of the Berlin think tank German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).

"IS has directly threatened China with retaliation for the persecution of the Muslim minority in China itself," she said. "Which again exacerbates Beijing's anxiety about a power vacuum in Afghanistan that could give IS the territory it needs to spread its presence in China and above all across central Asia."

The Chinese Embassy in Kyrgyzstan was hit by a suicide attack by an Uyghur group in August 2016

In the past, China was often described as a "free rider" in Afghanistan. Beijing, it was suggested, was allowing NATO forces to be responsible for the security of its economic interests. This initially included, for example, plans for investment in the exploitation of the raw materials that bitterly poor Afghanistan has at its disposal in large quantities that, however, simply go unused.

Nevertheless, Stanzel said there is no reason to believe that Beijing will step in and guarantee security in the region after the US withdrawal.
Mixed reaction in Tehran

In Tehran, the response to the American withdrawal from the Hindu Kush has been ambivalent. The undoubted foreign policy priority for Iran is the conflict with the United States, and in western Afghanistan US forces and their bases had been shifted close to the Iranian border.

"Iran wants to see the United States fail in any of its regional endeavors," said Crisis Group expert Watkins. "And Iran wants to see the US withdraw from the region because it also views the US presence in Afghanistan as an encroachment. But what they don't want is to see the potential for total collapse or for a humanitarian disaster."

In recent decades, millions of Afghans have sought refuge in Iran as well as in Pakistan.

Uprooted by war, Afghan refugees have found shelter in a camp in Iran

"Tehran actually appreciated the stabilizing impact of Western forces — even if it is something that the Iranian authorities would never have admitted to," said Ruttig of the Afghan Analysts Network.

This may also be applicable to Moscow. In the Russian imagination, Afghanistan has since the 19th century been seen as a southern strategic flank, as a gateway to the Indian Ocean, as a backdrop for rivalries with the West — or all of this together.

For a long time, following the withdrawal of Russian troops from Afghanistan in 1989, Moscow kept its distance from the region. In the meantime, however, Russia has again established relations with a number of players in Afghanistan, including the Taliban.

Moscow's interests are focused on security across its southern flank, measures to prevent a resurgence of Islamic movements and participation in any attempt to reach a political solution to the conflict.

More than 30 years ago, Soviet forces left Afghanistan after years of bloody combat

Hope for Afghanistan's future?

There will be no resolution of the conflict in Afghanistan unless it has the backing of the nations of the region. But, according to Watkins, each country "could put a finger on the scale and throw the entire situation in Afghanistan out of balance."

But Delhi and Islamabad do have one shared interest: both are looking to secure access to the vast energy resources of Central Asia. Since the 1990s, there have been negotiations concerning a possible pipeline project to bring gas from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan and Pakistan and all the way to India. The acronym for the project is TAPI, after the names of the four nations involved.

A visit by a Taliban delegation to Turkmenistan at the beginning of February was interpreted as a sign that the pipeline project is still viable. The Taliban reiterated their support for the pipeline and promised to guarantee its security.

"For Afghanistan and all the other participants, one can only hope that this project will be realized — in a peaceful environment," said Ruttig. "It is the only realistic large-scale economic project that they have got."

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LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for HINDU KUSH 

Himalayan icecap is melting faster than predicted

 

Himalayan icecap is melting faster than predicted

The mountains will lose 80 percent of snow and ice in this century

Written byNepali Times

Posted 1 July 2023 

Imja Glacier near Mt Everest has turned into a big lake in the past 20 years. Photo: Kiril Rusev via Nepali Times. Used with permission.

This article was originally published in Nepali Times and an edited version is republished on Global Voices as part of a content-sharing agreement.

Four years after scientists put out a worrying report about the melting Himalayan icecap, they have now warned that the problem is even more serious than earlier thought.

The new study provides what is said to be the most accurate assessment of snow, ice, and permafrost in the Himalayas to date: that Himalayan glaciers could lose up to 80 percent of their ice mass by the end of this century. The findings cite grave consequences, not just for the mountains, but for the nearly 2 billion people living downstream in Asian countries that depend on water from the world’s highest mountains.

Read More: The climate crisis is a water crisis in the Himalayas

The Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development ICIMOD had brought out the Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment in 2019. But the new report says Himalayan glaciers disappeared 65 percent faster in the 2010s than in the previous decades. At that rate, the melting will accelerate in the coming decades.

The Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HI-WISE) report draws on recent scientific advances to map out how melting snow, ice, and permafrost in the mountains will affect water, ecosystems, and society in the Himalayan watershed.

The peer-reviewed study warns of grave consequences to the region that provides fresh water to a quarter of the world's population and is home to four global biodiversity hotspots.

The HI-WISE report projects “peak water” by mid-century after which there will be less and less water available on Himalayan rivers for irrigation, household use, industries and hydropower. At the same time, extreme weather due to climate change will also increase the risk of landslides and floods in this geologically and ecologically fragile mountain region.

The south face of Saipal Himal in western Nepal, showing shrinking ice over the past 15 years. Image via Nepali Times. Used with permission.

“Climate inaction is accelerating,” warns Saleem ul Huq of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh. “This report shows that the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. We must act now to protect this region and its people.”

The report says the impact of the melting cryosphere on fragile mountain habitats is particularly acute, and it will have cascading impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity.

“With 67 percent of the HKH's eco-regions and 39 percent of the region's four global biodiversity hotspots outside protected areas, the HKH’s extraordinary biodiversity is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts,” the report warns.

Some 240 million people who live in the Himalayas and another 1.65 billion downstream in 16 countries of Asia will be affected by water shortages as the Himalayan icecap melts. Farmers in the Himalayas are already facing crop loss, fodder shortages and livestock deaths due to extreme weather.

“The hazards are becoming more complex and devastating,” says the report that was prepared by 35 scientists from 12 countries.

The report urges policymakers to prepare for the cascading impacts of climate change that provides fresh water to a quarter of the world’s population. It calls for urgent international support and regional cooperation for inevitable, near-term loss and damage, and to help communities adapt.

Himalayan glaciers could lose 80% of their volume if global warming not controlled, study finds

BENGALURU, India (AP) — Glaciers are melting at unprecedented rates across the Hindu Kush Himalayan mountain ranges and could lose up to 80% of their current volume this century if greenhouse gas emissions aren't sharply reduced, according to a new report.

The report Tuesday from Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development warned that flash floods and avalanches would grow more likely in coming years, and that the availability of fresh water would be affected for nearly 2 billion people who live downstream of 12 rivers that originate in the mountains.

Ice and snow in the Hindu Kush Himalayan ranges is an important source of water for those rivers, which flow through 16 countries in Asia and provide fresh water to 240 million people in the mountains and anther 1.65 billion downstream.

“The people living in these mountains who have contributed next to nothing to global warming are at high risk due to climate change,” said Amina Maharjan, a migration specialist and one of the report’s authors. “Current adaptation efforts are wholly insufficient, and we are extremely concerned that without greater support, these communities will be unable to cope.”

Various earlier reports have found that the cryosphere — regions on Earth covered by snow and ice — are among the worst affected by climate change. Recent research found that Mount Everest's glaciers, for example, have lost 2,000 years of ice in just the past 30 years.

“We map out for the first time the linkages between cryosphere change with water, ecosystems and society in this mountain region,” Maharjan said.

Among the key findings from Tuesday's report are that the Himalayan glaciers disappeared 65% faster since 2010 than in the previous decade and reducing snow cover due to global warming will result in reduced fresh water for people living downstream. The study found that 200 glacier lakes across these mountains are deemed dangerous, and the region could see a significant spike in glacial lake outburst floods by the end of the century.

The study found that communities in the mountain regions are being affected by climate change far more than many other parts of the world. It says changes to the glaciers, snow and permafrost of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region driven by global warming are “unprecedented and largely irreversible."

Effects of climate change are already felt by Himalayan communities sometimes acutely. Earlier this year the Indian mountain town of Joshimath began sinking and residents had to be relocated within days.

“Once ice melts in these regions, it's very difficult to put it back to its frozen form,” said Pam Pearson, director of the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, who was not involved with the report.

She added, “It’s like a big ship in the ocean. Once the ice starts going, it’s very hard to stop. So, with glaciers, especially the big glaciers in the Himalayas, once they start losing mass, that’s going to continue for a really long time before it can stabilize.”

Pearson said it is extremely important for Earth's snow, permafrost and ice to limit warming to the 1.5 degrees Celsius agreed to at the 2015 Paris climate conference.

“I get the sense that most policymakers don't take the goal seriously but, in the cryosphere, irreversible changes are already happening," she said.

___

Follow AP’s climate change coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

___

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Sibi Arasu, The Associated Press

Himalayan glaciers could lose 80% of their volume if global warming isn't controlled, study finds


 A new report Tuesday, June 20, 2023, from a Nepal-based research organization finds that water security for nearly 2 billion people living downstream of rivers that originate in the Himalayan ranges will likely be threatened by the end of this century due to rapid glacier melt if global warming is not controlled. 

(AP Photo/Niranjan Shrestha, File)


SIBI ARASU
Mon, June 19, 2023 

BENGALURU, India (AP) — Glaciers are melting at unprecedented rates across the Hindu Kush Himalayan mountain ranges and could lose up to 80% of their volume this century if greenhouse gas emissions aren't sharply reduced, according to a report.

The report Tuesday from Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development warned that flash floods and avalanches would grow more likely in coming years, and that the availability of fresh water could be curtailed for nearly 2 billion people who live downstream of 12 rivers that originate in the mountains.

Ice and snow in the Hindu Kush Himalayan ranges are an important source of water for those rivers, which flow through 16 countries in Asia and provide fresh water to 240 million people in the mountains and another 1.65 billion downstream.

“The people living in these mountains who have contributed next to nothing to global warming are at high risk due to climate change,” said Amina Maharjan, a migration specialist and one of the report’s authors. “Current adaptation efforts are wholly insufficient, and we are extremely concerned that without greater support, these communities will be unable to cope.”

Various earlier reports have found that the cryosphere — regions on Earth covered by snow and ice — are among the worst affected by climate change. Recent research found that Mount Everest's glaciers, for example, have lost 2,000 years of ice in just the past 30 years.

“We map out for the first time the linkages between cryosphere change with water, ecosystems and society in this mountain region,” Maharjan said.

Among the key findings from Tuesday's report are that the Himalayan glaciers disappeared 65% faster since 2010 than in the previous decade, and that reducing snow cover due to global warming will result in reduced fresh water for people living downstream. The study found that 200 glacier lakes across these mountains are deemed dangerous, and the region could see a significant spike in glacial lake outburst floods by the end of the century.

The study found that communities in the mountain regions are being affected by climate change far more than many other parts of the world. It says changes to the glaciers, snow and permafrost of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region driven by global warming are “unprecedented and largely irreversible.”

Effects of climate change are already felt by Himalayan communities, sometimes acutely. Earlier this year the Indian mountain town of Joshimath began sinking and residents had to be relocated within days.

“Once ice melts in these regions, it's very difficult to put it back to its frozen form,” said Pam Pearson, director of the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, who was not involved with the report.

She added, “It’s like a big ship in the ocean. Once the ice starts going, it’s very hard to stop. So, with glaciers, especially the big glaciers in the Himalayas, once they start losing mass, that’s going to continue for a really long time before it can stabilize.”

Pearson said it is extremely important for Earth's snow, permafrost and ice to limit warming to the 1.5 degrees Celsius agreed to at the 2015 Paris climate conference.

“I get the sense that most policymakers don't take the goal seriously but, in the cryosphere, irreversible changes are already happening," she said.

___

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

___

Follow AP’s climate change coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

 

Warming Asian Glaciers: Regional Strategy For Riskscape – Analysis

 July 11, 2024 

By Sanjay Srivastava, Soomi Hong, Shashwat Avi, Naina Tanwar and Akshaya Kumar

Scientific assessments reveal that the Third Pole (TP), encompassing the vast glaciated mountain systems of Asia, is warming at an alarming rate of over 0.3 ºC per decade, surpassing the global average. The TP hosts the largest ice mass outside the polar region, spanning the Tibetan plateau and surrounding ranges: Pamir-Hindu Kush, Hengduan, Tienshan, Qilian, and the Himalayas.

Rapid changes in the cryosphere and melting of glaciers significantly impact high-mountain ecosystems and downstream regions. As the water tower of Asia, the TP is vital for socio-economic stability through its freshwater resources. Warming has caused considerable variations in lakes, inland water bodies and the runoff into the river basins. Additionally, glacial disasters such as ice collapse and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have become more frequent and dangerous in recent years.

Emerging Third Pole risk hotspots  

While the risks emanating from warming are quite diverse in the different geographies of the TP, glacier melting has been intensifying, with more intensive melting along the Himalayas resulting in emergence of multi-hazard risk hotspots. Recent research reveals that the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) glaciers disappeared 65 per cent faster in 2011–2020 compared with the previous decade.  

Future scenarios project that glaciers in the HKH could lose up to 80 per cent of their current volume by the end of the century, with snow cover projected to fall by up to a quarter under high emissions scenarios. This may drastically reduce freshwater for major Asian rivers including the Yangtze, Indus, Ganges, Amu Darya and Helmand. The decreasing extent of frozen ground (permafrost) will lead to more landslides and problems for infrastructure at high elevation. 

The changes observed in Asian high mountain cryosphere to date signal grave consequences for human life and nature. A recent example is a cloudburst over Lhonak Lake in North Sikkim, which triggered a devastating GLOF in the Teesta river basin. This event resulted in loss of life, the destruction of the 1,200 MW Urja Hydroelectric Chungthang dam and extensive downstream damage, illustrating how disaster risks can compound and cascade in the fragile mountainous context of the Himalayas.

GLOFs pose a threat to mountainous communities across Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan; from the Himalayas to the Caucasus, Pamir, Hindu Kush-Karakoram and Tien Shan Mountain ranges. While manifestations of warming Asian glaciers are already visible, they are going to have devastating consequences for water and food security, energy sources, ecosystems, and the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions across Asia, many of which will be beyond the limits of adaptation.

Science led TP regional co-operation mechanisms for weather and climate services  

Given the transboundary nature of climate threats confronting the Asian glaciers, a stronger regional collaboration and knowledge exchange is required to understand the changing riskscape and develop risk reduction capabilities of the countries in diverse geographies of the TP. The WMO’s Regional Climate Outlook Forums and Regional Climate Centres anchor unique regional and subregional co-operation architecture. Following this modality, the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the TP region have establish the Third Pole Regional Climate Centre Network (TPRCC-Network) to facilitate collaboration. To capture the specificities of riskscape across TP geographies, the TPRCC-Network comprises three geographical nodes, with thematic responsibilities for mandatory functions for the entire region. While China leads the northern and eastern nodes, India and Pakistan are leading southern and western nodes of the TP. The Beijing Climate Centre provides overall co-ordination. ESCAP along with ICIMOD, TPE, GCW, GEWEX and MRI are contributing partners of the TPRCC-Network.  

In early June, the TPRCC-Network issued its first ever seasonal outlook for the summer season June to September 2024 for a high mountain TP region. It highlights that surface air temperatures are likely to be above normal over most parts of the TP region, especially over the Karakoram. The southwestern and northwestern parts are likely to experience normal to above normal surface air temperatures. Precipitation is likely to be near or above the climatological normal over most parts of the TP region, however, it is likely to be below normal in the western and southeastern parts of the TP region.  

Impact forecasting with teleconnection approach in the TP  

Weather forecasting relies on the interconnectedness of atmospheric and ocean conditions all the way across the globe, enabling predictions weeks to months in advance. Teleconnections denote significant links between weather phenomena across distant locations, often involving climate patterns spanning thousands of miles. The TP is characterized by hazards of glaciers with their potential exposure, vulnerability and impacts zones which are thousands of kilometers aways across the different nodes. The impact assessment needs to be based on understanding the teleconnections of glaciers and their potential impact zones. With the understanding of these unique teleconnections in the TP, ESCAP is making efforts to translate the seasonal outlook in terms of impact scenarios highlighting potentially at-risk communities, sectors and systems of the TP region. ESCAP has developed automation impact-based forecasting tool to help guide risk informed decision making and fill knowledge gaps.   

Source of Diagram: ESCAP

Support to adaptation at altitude  

Several initiatives aim to accelerate adaptation actions in the mountains, including the multi-country initiative such as the Adaptation at Altitude. These initiatives enhance resilience and adaptive capacity by improving and transferring knowledge through science–policy platforms, informing decision-making in national, regional and global policy processes.  Adaptation and resilience in the Third Pole context hinge on understanding glacier dynamics and their impact on water and ecosystems. The TRCC-Network is an important initiative to support adaptation at altitude.

About the authors: 

• Sanjay Srivastava, Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP 
• Soomi Hong, Associate Economic Affairs Officer, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP
• Shashwat Avi, Consultant, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP
• Naina Tanwar, Consultant, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP 
• Akshaya Kumar, Intern, Disaster Risk Reduction Section, ESCAP

 

Experts Call for Early Warning as Hindu Kush Himalaya Region May Face Extreme Weather Events

Mohd. Imran Khan | 16 May 2024 | NEWSCLICK INDIA

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A new climate outlook report says Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan may witness above average temperatures and higher rainfall than normal this year.

Patna/Kathmandu: Though the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast the onset of monsoon on time this year, after a scorching summer, experts have warned that the countries, such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, and Pakistan in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region should brace for what might be a difficult monsoon season ahead. They have warned that these countries are likely to witness above average temperatures and higher rainfall than normal this year.

Scientists at the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) have said that the weather outlook for June to September comes after a heatwave broke temperature records across the region last month, forcing schools to close, impacting crops and sparking forest fires.

While pre-monsoon showers have provided relief to parts of South Asia this month, the climate outlook published recently suggests that any respite may be temporary.

The consensus from technical experts at the 28 sessions of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-28) held on April 29, 2024 in Pune, India is that the El Niño (it refers to a warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures) conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region are likely to weaken, giving way to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during early part of the monsoon season. (ENSO has a significant impact on monsoon variability.)

During the second half of the southwest monsoon season, La Niña (periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures) conditions are likely to develop: conditions commonly associated with above normal rain.

Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan are all expected to receive higher rainfall. And this rainfall will happen in a context of an overall warming trend: of high-than-normal both minimum and maximum temperatures, the scientists have predicted.

“In spite of the fact that last year was a year of below average rainfall in many parts of the HKH countries, we saw catastrophic floods hit region after region, community after community, in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya,” said Mandira Shrestha, programme coordinator, Climate Services, at ICIMOD, said at the forum.

The climate outlook said that “In that context, this year’s monsoon outlook is worrying. It is also set against an overall warming trend, which we know is linked to greater melting of snow and glacier and the loss of the permafrost – the hidden glue that stabilises many mountain slopes, and whose thawing is often a key factor in the sorts of devastating flash floods and landslides we are now seeing across our region. This forecast is an alert for funders, multilateral agencies and disaster management officials in governments: multi-hazard early warning systems in this hugely populated region of rising risk must urgently be rolled out.”

One Extreme to Another: Record-Breaking Temperatures

While some regions will grapple with deadly downpours, others will face searing heat between June to September 2024.

As per the SASCOF-28 Climate Outlook, maximum temperatures between June to September 2024 suggest that the seasonal maximum temperatures are most likely to be above normal over most parts of the region. Some isolated areas are likely to see normal to below normal maximum temperatures. The current heat wave is also likely to continue through the monsoon with minimum temperatures also likely to be higher than the normal.

The regional climate outlook for the 2024 southwest monsoon season over South Asia was collaboratively developed by all nine National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of South Asia with support from international experts.