Ukraine shockwaves reverberate in war-weary Syria

Russia is the common thread in Syria and Ukraine; Syrians feel ‘abandoned by the world;' Turkey seizes an opening; UN process stymied; and US stresses ‘accountability.'

Protesters raise a giant flag of the Syrian rebels atop a building during a demonstration against Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the city of Binnish in Syria's northwestern rebel-held Idlib province. - OMAR HAJ KADOUR/AFP via Getty Images

Week in Review
@AlMonitor

April 8, 2022


The Russia-Ukraine-Syria connections

The Russian attack on Ukraine last month has diverted the international community’s already fading attention from the now 11-year civil war in Syria.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, addressing the Security Council on March 23, said that Syrians feel "abandoned by the world" after a decade of war.

Russia is the primary backer of the Syrian government. Moscow’s military intervention in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has secured Assad’s hold on power in a fragile and divided country.

Israel coordinates its Syria policy, including intermittent attacks on Iran and Iranian-backed armed groups, with Russia.

With Russia fully engaged with the war in Ukraine, Turkey, and perhaps others, may sense an opening to press their agendas in Syria.

UN: Syria destruction ‘has few equals’ in modern history

On March 11, Guterres reminded the Security Council that "the destruction that Syrians have endured is so extensive and deadly that it has few equals in modern history. … There must be no impunity."

"Hundreds of thousands have been killed, more than half of the pre-war population – somewhere in the order of 22 million - have been displaced," said Paulo Pinheiro, Chair of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic, on March 9. "More than 100,000 are missing or forcibly disappeared. Syria’s cities and infrastructure have been destroyed. Today the poverty rate in Syria is an unprecedented 90%; 14.6 million people in Syria depend on humanitarian aid.”

"Nearly 5 million children have been born in Syria since 2011," said UNICEF Syria Representative, Bo Viktor Nylund said in March. "They have known nothing but war and conflict. In many parts of Syria, they continue to live in fear of violence, landmines, and explosive remnants of war."

Syria ranks among the 10 most food-insecure countries globally, with “a staggering 12 million people considered to be food insecure,” Deputy Humanitarian Coordinator Joyce Msuya reported to the Council, while noting that the country’s economy is “spiraling further downward.”

Sultan Al-Kanj reports on the impact of higher food and fuel costs on Syrians in Idlib.

UN envoy: Parties ‘substantively far apart’ on flagging political process

The only way to break that deadlock, Guterres said, is through a credible political process that forges a sustainable peace and lets the voices of all Syrians be heard.

But the political process outlined in UN Security 2254 (2015) has been so delayed, and obstructed, that it seems out of time and place with Syria today. And that was before the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, one of the key players in the Syrian drama.

UN Syria Envoy Geir Pedersen told the Security Council in February that he is "very concerned that the constructive international diplomacy required to push this may prove more difficult than it already was, against the backdrop of the military operations in Ukraine."

The political negotiations are mostly dominated by Moscow, and by extension Damascus, with no countervailing US or Western engagement to give Pedersen the leverage needed to press ahead with his "step-for-step" approach to negotiations.

"The parties' positions are substantively far apart, and narrowing their differences will inevitably be an incremental process," Pedersen told the Security Council.

Turkey: ‘A new beginning’ in Syria?

For at least one player in Syria — Turkey — the Ukraine war may present an opportunity. Russia’s distraction in Ukraine could be a chance for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to address his Syrian quagmire, which has been a drain on Turkey’s flagging economy, made worse by the Ukraine war (see the report by Mustafa Sonmez here).

Turkey currently occupies, via its military and proxy Syrian forces, approximately 3,400 square miles in northern Syria. Turkey also hosts close to 3.5 million Syrian refugees.

Erdogan has proffered a dialogue with Assad, while escalating actions in Syria to intimidate Kurdish-controlled areas and strengthening Turkish bases, as Fehim Tastekin reports.

Turkey considers the Kurdish parties aligned with the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as terrorists, linked to the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

Meanwhile, Turkey has sought to facilitate coordination by the former al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS, and ‘Liberation of the Levant’), which controls most of the northwest province of Idlib, with Turkish-backed Syrian factions, as Khaled Al-Khateb reports from Aleppo, as HTS seeks to eliminate or absorb more radical rival groups.

Moscow may have told Damascus to hold off on any major offensive against Idlib, according to diplomatic sources, although there have been a steady stream of Syrian government attacks in the province, adds Khateb.

Also seizing the initiative in Syria is HTS leader Abu Mohamed al-Golani, who has been making the rounds seeking to expand his popular support, as Sultan Al-Kanj reports.

Meanwhile, Turkey has warmed ties with the US, establishing a new "strategic mechanism" to facilitate coordination on trade, human rights, and security, including Ukraine and Syria, as Nazlan Ertan reports.

And Erdogan’s global diplomatic credibility has been bolstered in the West by his efforts to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, writes Semih Idiz.

US: ‘Pressing for accountability’?

Under the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act of 2019, "It is the policy of the United States that diplomatic and coercive economic means should be utilized to compel the government of Bashar al-Assad to halt its murderous attacks on the Syrian people and to support a transition to a government in Syria that respects the rule of law, human rights, and peaceful co-existence with its neighbors."

The Biden administration’s review of Syria policy, completed in December 2021, gives priority to the US-led campaign against ISIS; supporting local ceasefires and humanitarian access throughout Syria (which requires coordination with Russia); "pressing for accountability and respect for international law while promoting human rights and nonproliferation, including through the imposition of targeted sanctions; and supporting a political process led by the Syrian people, as envisioned in" UNSCR 2254.

Dropped, or deprioritized, following the Biden review, is the Trump administration’s objective of seeking the withdrawal of Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) and IRGC-backed forces in Syria.

Four US soldiers received medical attention for “minor injuries” and possible brain trauma following a rocket attack on a US-led coalition base in eastern Syria, likely attributed to Iran-backed paramilitary groups, the first such attack since January, Jared Szuba reports. The US has approximately 900 troops in Syria as part of its Operation Inherent Resolve, the US-led ‘D-ISIS’ mission in Syria and Iraq.

The Biden administration continues to reject initiatives by Arab states to normalize relations with Assad, who made an official visit to the UAE in March. But these efforts are nonetheless gaining traction, if slowly, as George Mikhail reports from Cairo.

The chairs and ranking members of the Senate Foreign Relations and House Foreign Affairs Committees wrote a letter to US President Joe Biden in January calling for "consequences for any nation that seeks to rehabilitate the Assad regime and to ensure all countries understand that normalization or Assad’s return to the Arab League are unacceptable."

Mostly absent from the UN diplomacy on Syria, the US has instead focused on keeping open the remaining UN humanitarian corridor at the Bab Al Hawa crossing. UNSC Res 2585 (2021) expires in July, and Russia could veto. Diplomatic sources indicate, however, that most aid through the crossing is in any case facilitated by one the ground NGOs, and that Turkey controls a number of alternative border crossings into Syria.

Elizabeth Hagedorn, on this week’s On the Middle East podcast, suggests that the focus on alleged Russian atrocities in the Ukraine war could spark similar calls for accountability for war crimes in Syria.

A call from Australia against possible

Türkiye determined to expel terrorists from Syria - Erdogan

Türkiye Materials 20 July 2022


BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 19. Türkiye is determined to expel terrorists from Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said at the summit of the "Astana" trio, Trend reports citing Turkish media.

"We are determined to drive the terrorists out of Syria. Separatist terrorist organizations must be completely expelled from Syria. As guarantor countries of the Astana process, we expect the Russian Federation and Iran to support Türkiye in this fight. It must be clearly understood that there is no place for separatist terrorism and its manifestations for the future of our region," Erdogan noted.

Erdogan also said that the safe return of Syrian refugees to their country is also one of the important items on the agenda of the Astana process. According to him, Tel Rifat and Manbij in northern Syria have become a "port for terrorists" that need to be cleared of them.

Ayatollah Khamenei to Erdogan: Any Military Attack on Northern Syria Serves Terrorists Interests

Tuesday July 19th, 2022 by THE SYRIA TIMES (Pro-government newspaper)

Khamenei said that Iran considers the security of Turkey's borders as its own, according to the Syria Times.

(THE SYRIA TIMES)

The Leader of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Imam Seyyed Ali Khamenei, stressed that preserving Syria’s territorial integrity is very important, asserting that any military attack on northern Syria would benefit terrorists and would be to the detriment of Syria, Turkey and the region.

This came during a meeting held between Khamenei and the President of the Turkish regime, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in Tehran on Tuesday.

Khamenei reiterated that Iran considers the security of Turkey’s borders as its own. Turkey should also consider Syria’s security as it would its own, noting that issues in Syria must be resolved through dialogue.

Assad’s Foreign Minister Visits Tehran in Conjunction with Three Leaders Summit

Tuesday July 19th, 2022 by AL-SOURIA NET (Opposition website)      

Mekdad visited Tehran ahead of a trilateral meeting between Erdogan, Raisi and Putin, according to al-Souria Net.

(AL-SOURIA NET)

Assad’s foreign minister, Faisal al-Mekdad, will visit Tehran on Tuesday. This will coincide with a summit that will bring together the leaders of Turkey, Russia, and Iran: Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin, and Ibrahim Raisi respectively. 

Iranian and Russian media close to the regime reported on Monday that Mekdad, while arriving in the Iranian capital, “will meet with his Iranian counterpart, Hussein Amir Abdullahian, to discuss the outcome of the Astana-format summit.” 

No official Iranian or Syrian regime comment has confirmed Mekdad’s arrival in Tehran on Tuesday. 

If officially confirmed that the visit will coincide with the summit. The summit will bring together Erdogan, Raisi, and Putin. This meeting is the first of its kind in two years. 

The three leaders are scheduled to discuss the Syrian issue precisely and regional and global issues.  

In a statement on Friday, the Russian Foreign Ministry described the summit as “a very important event.”

Russia, Turkey and Iran have been holding talks for years on the situation in Syria as part of what has been called the “Astana peace process.” 

A call from Australia against possible

Turkish incursion into northern Syria

A city councillor in Australia has called for international solidarity against Turkey's continuing threats and plans to further invade the region.

On Jul 19, 2022

The city councillor in Moreland, a city of 180,000 near Melbourne, Australia, called for international solidarity with the people of north and east Syria in the face of Turkey’s threats to launch yet another incursion into the region.

Sue Bolton, a member of the Socialist Alliance, noted that some organisations recently addressed the United Nations (UN) for a no fly zone over the region, and said that people all over the world should support the call.

Over thirty political parties and groups in north and east Syria had called on the UN in early July for a no-fly zone, expressing their concern at Turkey’s threats of a military campaign to further occupy parts of the region.

Bolton said in a video message:

“Once again the Kurds are being used as a bargaining chip for other countries making deals, and this could be a dangerous deal for the Kurds because Finland and Sweden are promising to provide more arms to the Turkish government, they are promising to stop assistance to the autonomous administration in northern Syria, and they are promising to crack down on Kurdish activists in their own countries, and extradite those people to Turkey. So this is a really disastrous issue for the Kurds.”

She continued:

“It’s also especially disastrous because this will be used to support the Turkish government’s plans to invade and seize more territory in the northern parts of Syria. The Turkish government has already been using drones and heavy artillery to bombard the civilians in northern Syria. Now a number of organisations approached the United Nations for a no fly zone. I think people all over the world should support the call for a no fly zone to stop the Turkish government from firing missiles on civilians from the air and causing the expulsion of more tens of thousands of Kurds and other people from the towns and villages in northern Syria.

She added:

“The people in northern Syria, including the Kurds, deserve our support all over the world. And everyone who has been opposing the Russian invasion in Ukraine should equally be con

demning the Turkish government’s plans to invade, or further invade north and east Syria.”

Source:  MedyaNews

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of the Observatory.

SDF Increases Preparations to Repel Turkish Aggression on Northern Syria

Tuesday July 19th, 2022 by NORTH PRESS (Kurdish agency)

The SDF and its affiliates are ready to go to war if Turkey decides to invade areas in Syria’s north, according to North Press.

(NORTH PRESS)

The spokesperson of the Northern Democratic Brigade, which is affiliated with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), said on Tuesday that their forces have increased preparations to repel any possible Turkish aggression on northern Syria.

Mahmoud Habib, the spokesman of the Northern Democratic Brigade, told North Press that the Turkish threats require the military forces to increase preparations, which is what they did.

On Monday, the Northern Democratic Brigade released a statement rejecting the continued threat of the Turkish potential military operation on northern Syria.

The statement pointed out that the military forces in northern Syria are ready and prepared for a long and violent war to repel the Turkish invasion of the region.

“Our forces have got ready, some of them were deployed, and military convoys stood by to repel if needed,” Habib added.

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has recently announced plans to carry out another major military cross-border incursion into northern Syria. Erdogan specified his targets in the two northern Syrian cities of Manbij and Tel Rifaat.

According to Habib, the SDF and its affiliated military groups are ready to go to war if Turkey decides to invade areas in Syria’s north.

He said that the military forces are responsible for protecting the population in areas of northeastern Syria and preventing Turkey from occupying new areas where massacres and violations will be committed, as happened previously.

Turkey steps up strikes on militants as conflict escalates in Syria

FASCIST ERDOGAN'S WAR ON THE KURDS

IMPERIALIST INVASION OF SOVERIGN SYRIA

Updated Fri, October 6, 2023

Smoke rises from Qamishli


By Daren Butler, Tuvan Gumrukcu and kilo

ISTANBUL (Reuters) -Turkish security forces attacked Kurdish militants in northern Syria and eastern Turkey, and Ankara said it will continue to destroy their capabilities across the region as conflict escalated on Friday nearly a week after a bomb attack in Ankara.

After U.S. forces shot down a Turkish drone in northern Syria on Thursday, Turkey confirmed the incident but assigned no blame, indicating it may want to contain any tensions with its NATO ally.

The military "neutralised" 26 Kurdish militants in northern Syria overnight in retaliation for a rocket attack on a Turkish base, the defence ministry said. Turkey typically uses the term "neutralise" to mean kill.

The rocket attack on the base, by the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, killed one Turkish police officer and wounded seven officers and soldiers in northwest Syria's Dabiq area on Thursday evening, Ankara said.

Turkey also conducted air strikes and destroyed 30 militant targets elsewhere in northern Syria on Thursday night, including an oil well, a storage facility and shelters, the defence ministry said.

On Friday, the ministry said Turkey's military had conducted another round of air strikes in northern Syria and destroyed 15 other militant targets where it said militants were believed to be. It did not say where in northern Syria the strikes, carried out at 1900 GMT, had hit.

"As has been done in Iraq, all the capabilities and revenue sources developed by the terrorist organisation in Syria will continue to be destroyed in a systematic way," the foreign ministry said in a statement.

In Turkey, two Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants were "neutralised" in eastern Agri province in a clash with commandos during an operation with combat drone and attack helicopter support, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said in a statement.

He said counter-terror police detained 75 people suspected of links to the PKK in an operation across 11 provinces.

The PKK previously claimed responsibility for Sunday's bombing in Ankara that left the two attackers dead and wounded two police officers. Turkey said the attackers came from Syria but the Syrian SDF forces denied this.

TURKISH-U.S. TENSIONS

Turkey lists the YPG as a terrorist organisation and says it is indistinguishable from the PKK, which has fought an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984 in which more than 40,000 people have been killed.

The United States and European Union deem the PKK as terrorists, but not the YPG.

The YPG is also at the heart of the SDF forces in the U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State militants. U.S. support for them has long caused tension with Turkey.

The SDF said Turkish attacks had killed eight people since the Ankara bombing.

Underscoring the tension, the Pentagon said the United States had on Thursday shot down an armed Turkish drone that was operating near its troops in Syria, the first time Washington has brought down an aircraft of NATO ally Turkey.

A Pentagon spokesman said Turkish drones were seen carrying out air strikes in Hasakah, northeast Syria, and one drone that came within less than half a kilometre (0.3 miles) from U.S. troops, was deemed a threat and shot down by F-16 aircraft.

The Turkish foreign ministry statement said one of Turkey's drones was lost during operations against Kurdish militants in northeast Syria due to "different technical evaluations" with third parties on the ground.

Without citing a specific country, it said it was working with the relevant parties on the ground to improve the functioning of non-conflict mechanisms on the ground.

Later on Friday, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan held a call with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to discuss the downing of the drone, a Turkish Foreign Ministry source said.

"During the call, Minister Fidan conveyed to his counterpart Blinken in strong terms that, as an ally, the United States must stop working together with the YPG terrorist organisation in the north of Syria," the source said.

Fidan also told Blinken that Turkey's military operations in Syria would continue, the source said. The two ministers agreed to work on non-conflict mechanisms between the allies in Syria and Iraq in a way "that will not pose an obstacle to our counter-terrorism battle" after the drone was downed, the source added.

A State Department spokesperson said Blinken highlighted the need for Washington and Ankara to "coordinate and deconflict" their activities on the call.

Ankara, which has said all PKK and YPG targets in Syria and Iraq ARE now "legitimate targets" for its forces, said on Thursday a ground operation into Syria was one option it could consider.

Turkey has mounted several previous incursions into northern Syria against the YPG.

(Reporting by Daren Butler, Tuvan Gumrukcu, and Huseyin Hayatsever; Editing by Jonathan Spicer, Nick Macfie, Andrew Heavens and Sandra Maler)

Talks after US fighter jet shoots down armed Turkish drone in Syria
Thomas Mackintosh - BBC News
Fri, October 6, 2023 

File photo of a US-made F-16 fighter jet plane


The top US and Turkish diplomats have spoken by phone after US forces in Syria shot down an armed Turkish drone.

Washington said the drone came too close to its ground forces in Syria, but Ankara merely said it was lost during operations.

During the call between the Nato allies, Hakan Fidan told the US Turkey would keep targeting Kurdish groups.

The US works with Kurdish YPG forces in Syria, but Turkey views them as separatists and terrorists.

Mr Fidan told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Turkey's "counter-terrorism operations in Iraq and Syria will continue with determination".

Meanwhile a US State Department spokesperson said Mr Blinken highlighted the need for Washington and Ankara to "coordinate and deconflict" their activities.

On Thursday US military officials said a US F-16 fighter jet shot down the armed Turkish drone which was operating near American troops in Syria after giving several warnings.

Pentagon spokesperson Brig Gen Patrick Ryder told reporters that American forces had observed several drones carrying out airstrikes near Al Hasakah in north-eastern Syria at 07:30 local time (04:30 GMT).

Some of the strikes were approximately 1km away from US troops, prompting them to take shelter in bunkers, Ryder said.

Four hours later, the F-16 downed the drone after commanders assessed there was a potential threat, he said.

"It's regrettable when you have two NATO allies and there's an incident like this," he told reporters.

It marked the first such incident between the two Nato allies.

There are about 900 US troops operating in Syria as a part of the mission against the Islamic State jihadist group (IS).

Turkey has been launching air strikes against Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq after a suicide blast hit its interior ministry in Ankara.

The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) said the interior ministry bombing had been carried out by a group linked to them.

The PKK is considered a terror group in Turkey, the EU, UK and US.

Turkey views the PKK and the YPG as the same group. However the US has been working with the YPG, which is part of the group of US-backed forces known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that has fought against IS in Syria.

Shortly after the phone call between Mr Blinken and Mr Fidan, Turkey said it had launched renewed attacks on Kurdish target in northern Syria.

The Turkish defence ministry said it had hit 15 Kurdish targets "with the maximum amount" of ammunition and they included "headquarters and shelters".

Who are the Kurds?

The PKK launched an armed struggle against the Turkish government in 1984, calling for an independent Kurdish state within Turkey.

In the 1990s, the PKK rolled back on its demands for an independent state, calling instead for more autonomy for the Kurds. More than 40,000 people have died in the conflict.

Fighting flared up again after a two-year-old ceasefire ended in July 2015.

IT WAS A UNILATERAL CEASEFIRE BY THE PKK NOT RENEWED BY ERDOGAN

Turkish airstrikes kill at least 11 in northern Syria, Kurdish security forces say

Jomana Karadsheh, Hamdi Alkhshali and Gul Tuysuz, CNN
Thu, October 5, 2023 

Reuters


Turkish airstrikes killed at least 11 people in multiple Kurdish-controlled locations in northeastern Syria, the Kurdish Internal Security Force said Thursday, the latest response from Ankara’s forces following a bomb attack in Turkey’s capital claimed by Kurdish militants.

In a post on its official website, the Kurdish Internal Security Force, known as Asayish, said the locations targeted by Turkey included the vicinity of a camp for displaced people and several villages.

“Eleven people were martyred, including five civilians and six members of the Internal Security Forces,” Asayish said.

Eight civilians and two members of the Kurdish security forces were wounded, it added.

In a statement Friday, Turkey’s Defense Ministry said it destroyed 30 targets and “neutralized” multiple Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) militants during the operation in northern Syria, citing its self-defense rights from Article 51 of the United Nations Charter to justify the strikes.

The strikes come after a bombing in Ankara over the weekend claimed by the PKK, which has waged a nearly four-decade long insurgency and is classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States and the European Union.

At least one civilian was killed in the attack Sunday when militants hijacked a car, and two police officers were injured in the bombing outside Turkey’s Interior Ministry building.

Later Sunday, the Turkish Defense Ministry said its warplanes had destroyed 20 PKK targets in northern Iraq in response to the attack.

According to Ankara, the PKK trains separatist fighters and launches attacks against Turkey from its bases in northern Iraq and Syria, where a PKK-affiliated Kurdish group controls large swaths of territory.

“In the investigation following the latest incident, it was determined by security forces and intelligence that the terrorists came from Syria and were trained there,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told a news conference on Wednesday.

Fidan warned that all facilities belonging to the PKK and related People’s Protection Units (YPG) groups in Iraq and Syria would be “legitimate targets” of the Turkish Armed Forces.

“The response of our armed forces to the terror attack will be very clear and they will once again regret having carried out this attack,” Fidan said.

Kurds, who do not have an official homeland or country, are the biggest minority in Turkey, making up between 15% and 20% of the population, according to Minority Rights Group International.

Portions of Kurdistan – a non-governmental region and one of the largest stateless nations in the world – are recognized by Iran, where the province of Kordestan lies; and Iraq, site of the northern autonomous region known as Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) or Iraqi Kurdistan.

In recent years, Turkey has carried out a steady stream of operations against the PKK domestically as well as cross-border operations into Syria.

In November 2022, Ankara blamed the PKK for a bomb attack in Istanbul that killed six and injured dozens.

Terror attacks in Turkey were tragically common in the mid to late 2010s, when the insecurity from war-torn Syria crept north above the two countries’ shared border.

CNN’s Hande Atay Alam contributed reporting.

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TULSI GABBARD WAS RIGHT
Syria's war turns 9: How barbarity, confusion and indifference helped Bashar Assad prosper

Kim HjelmgaardDeirdre Shesgreen USA TODAY

He trained as an eye doctor. He likes high-tech gadgets and country music. And he may turn out to be one of the most barbarous political leaders of the 21st Century.

The blood-soaked regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad – a tall, shy and, by all accounts, unlikely inheritor and conservator of Syrian sovereignty – has survived nearly a decade of political rebellion, virulent insurgency and international condemnation.

Assad has held onto power even as other despots in the Middle East fell, as world leaders aggressively pushed for his ouster, and as the Syrian people begged for peace.

March 15 marks nine years since protests in Syria calling for democratic reforms and greater freedoms sparked a civil war that has spilled far outside its borders.

What began as a hopeful uprising ballooned into a devastating and intractable conflict that contributed to the most severe refugee crisis since World War II. Syria's war has led to hundreds of thousands of deaths, displaced millions, and helped spur the rise – and then entrenchment – of the Islamic State terrorist organization.


It has also drawn the United States, Iran, Israel, Russia and Turkey into a complicated and potentially dangerous confrontation that lacks coherent Western oversight.

The story of Assad's survival – and Syria's disintegration – is part personal inhumanity, part international indifference. Five years ago, Assad admitted in a televised address that his army was tired and that his military was losing ground.

Now, most of Syria is back under Assad’s control, as his military and its Russian allies pound the remaining patch of rebel-held territory into submission, although some well-connected Syrians living in exile believe Assad's rule is coming apart at the seams.

"He's a survivor. He's very, very tough," said Robert Ford, who served as U.S. Ambassador to Syria from 2011-2014 and engaged with Assad as part of that role. Ford described Assad as someone who "grew into the role" of butchering his own people.

According to the United Nations, humanitarian groups and Syria watchdogs, Assad's violence has taken many forms: imposing starvation sieges on rebel-held areas; repeatedly bombing, with Russian assistance, hospitals and civilian infrastructure; arresting and torturing thousands of activists, bloggers and civilians, and then holding them at secret prisons deep underground, where they languish without trial. He has also allegedly used chlorine bombs and sarin gas – chemical weapons – against opposition fighters, killing children and civilians in the process.

"Everybody who knows Assad knows two things about him," said Ayman Abdel Nour, a former friend of Syria's leader from their college days studying medicine in Damascus.

"First: He lies – about everything. Second: He's extremely jealous. If you have a nice watch or camera, he will be sure to go out and get a better one the next day," he said.


The Syrian government has consistently denied all the allegations lobbed at Assad by the West, opposition groups and by former regime insiders, such as Nour, who fled Syria in 2007 after Assad threatened to imprison him because of an online magazine he ran called "all4syria" that was critical of the regime. Assad's allies say the allegations reflect long-standing efforts to destabilize Syria and the wider Middle East region.

"Conspiracies, like germs, reproduce everywhere, every moment and they cannot be eradicated," Assad said in 2011. He claims to enjoy widespread support among Syrians inside and outside the country, even as he moves to crush the last pocket of resistance.
Tangled web of interests

The remaining Syrian rebel holdouts are in the Aleppo countryside and parts of neighboring Idlib province, in northwestern Syria. While the rebels are fiercely resisting, Assad's forces, backed by heavy Russian airstrikes, have sent nearly a million Syrian civilians fleeing toward the sealed border with Turkey,in what the United Nations fears could be the single worst displacement of the nine-year war so far.

Many fleeing families have no housing, no food or supplies, and they are dying in refugee camps from the cold, said Huzayfa al-Khateeb, a Syrian radio reporter who lives in Idlib. "There is no single town, no single area, you can live. And on the border, they are bombing us. The situation is so bad, more than I can explain to you," he said.

"The situation is fast turning into the biggest humanitarian horror story of the 21st Century," said Hardin Lang, vice president for programs and policy at Refugees International, a Washington, D.C.-based humanitarian advocacy organization.


It has also brought Turkey and Syria to the brink of all-out war and entangled regional and foreign powers in a complex web of decision-making that risks wider hostilities.

Turkey has already taken in 3.6 million Syrian refugees, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says his country can't handle any more. Turkey has intervened in Syria in part because it wants Syrian rebels to help maintain a buffer zone in northern Syria, near the border with Turkey. Erdogan considers that essential to guarding against attacks from Kurdish separatists, which Turkey views as terrorists.

On Feb. 27, at least 33 Turkish soldiers were killed in a Syrian military airstrike in Idlib province, escalating an already tense and volatile situation.

Russia has long inflamed the conflict by doing everything in its power to prop up Assad. Russia sees the Syrian war as a way to reassert itself as an international power broker amid the Trump administration's retreat from the global stage, experts say.

"Moscow views the Syrian civil war as a foreign-influenced crisis that threatens the broader Middle East region and its interests there and at home," said Osamah Khalil, a professor of Middle East history at Syracuse University, in New York.

Iran has also been drawn into the fray, supporting the Assad regime with military intelligence and training. Iran's presence in Syria and support there for Hezbollah militants has alarmed the U.S. and its most important regional ally, Israel.

"Hezbollah has a well-trained and battle-hardened militia, as well as large stocks of missiles that Israel sees as a direct threat," Khalil said.

Late last week, Idlib skies were completely free of Russian and Syrian government warplanes for the first time in weeks amid a tense calm as a cease-fire deal brokered by Turkey and Russia took hold in Syria’s northwestern province.

But there are other looming complications.

Earlier this month, Turkey opened its frontiers with Greece and Bulgaria to allow fleeing Syrians and other migrants to enter the European Union – a move aimed at pressuring EU leaders to intervene in Syria amid the refugee crisis. Turkey's action revived memories of 2015,when more than a million asylum seekers fled to Europe from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and other conflict zones. It was a humanitarian train of people the continent had not witnessed since the ravages of the Holocaust.

USA TODAY Reporter's Notebook: Walking with migrants

Meanwhile, U.S. policy toward Assad's Syria has roller-coastered from intervention and airstrikes to resignation, inattention and downright confusion. Former President Barack Obama failed to enforce his own "red line" when Assad allegedly used chemical weapons in 2013, killing as many as 1,400 Syrians, including 400 children.

President Donald Trump, prior to taking office, said that the U.S. should "stay the hell out of Syria"and warned – without evidence – that Hillary Clinton, the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, wanted "to flood our country with Syrian immigrants."

However, after Trump took office he soon found himself ordering a U.S. airstrike against Syrian targets, after another alleged chemical weapons attack by Assad in April 2017. (The Syrian leader has denied using such weapons.) Trump has since blasted Assad as an "animal"and blamed Obama for not acting more aggressively.

Then, last year, Trump declared victory over the Islamic State group in Syria and moved to withdraw U.S. troops from the war-torn country, a move he's partly walked back.

Does Trump want out of Syria? Apparently, not so much.

"So the idea that America must do something, I just find that to be – I don’t even see that as being a real argument," Robert O'Brien, Trump's national security adviser, said during an event in Washington, D.C., in mid-February, summing up one version of the U.S.'s position on Syria. "You've got Russian and Iranian and Syrian troops attacking Turks and their allies. And by the way, there are terrorists in Idlib as well ... We’re supposed to parachute in as a global policeman and hold up a stop sign and stay 'Stop this Turkey, Stop this Russia, Stop this Iran, Stop this Syria?" O'Brien asked.
'An age of impunity'

There is effectively "no unity or even clarity over Western policymaking" with respect to Syria, said David Miliband, a former Britishforeign secretary and now the head of the International Rescue Committee, a global aid relief organization based in New York.

Miliband said there is no "short-, medium- or long-term" plan about what the international community wants to achieve beyond halting the humanitarian disaster.

"That means there's no cost-benefit calculations being done by Russia or Syria or Iran over what they're doing in Syria," he added. "What we're seeing in Syria now is really an age of impunity facilitated by Western division and dysfunction."

Still, there is one constant: Assad. 

Firas Tlass, at one point one of Syria's richest men and a former close confidant of the Assad family, said in a phone interview from Dubai, where he lives in exile, that there is a "mood within Syria today suggesting the regime could soon collapse, that it can't continue economically, that it's ultimately lost without real international support."

He said that while Assad may currently have the upper-hand territorially and militarily, it changes every few months, and everyday life, even for regime loyalists inside Syria, is hard: electricity blackouts, little access to health care, few supplies at the market.

"They had hoped that the regime would make sure there was money for salaries and goods and electricity. The opposite has happened," said Nour, Assad's friend from their college days, who now lives in the U.S., where he founded Syrian Christians for Peace, a pro-opposition humanitarian organization that distributes aid inside Syria.

Nour says that Assad's military gains are disguising a regime in its dying days.

"It's really hurting. The regime is suffering," said Haid Haid, an expert on Syria at Chatham House, during a panel discussion on March 11 at a conference about Syria hosted by the London-based global affairs think tank.

Zaki Lababidi, a Washington, D.C.-based president of the Syrian American Council, which advocates for a secular democracy in Syria, echoed that assessment, saying that Assad is "definitely not a victor." Instead: "He’s a puppet of Russia, and he presides (over) a destroyed country, a destroyed economy," he said.

"To the Syrian people, your revolution succeeded. The Assad regime is done."

But Tlass cautioned against expecting that much could be done to accelerate Assad's ouster, unless Russia or Iran decide it is time for him to go. And he noted that even if Assad is forced from power, any new Syrian government would almost certainly be filled with officials and military apparatchiks implicated in Assad's crimes.
Afraid of the sight of blood

Assad was encouraged to become a doctor by his late father, who ruled Syria for three decades as a virtual police state. Hafez Assad was brutal is his crackdowns on dissent, perpetually paranoid, corrupt and willing to murder friends to retain his grip on power.

Hafez Assad viewed his second son as temperamentally unfit to be Syria's president –awkward in company, a poor public speaker and afraid of the sight of blood, according to Sam Dagher, author of "Assad or We Burn the Country: How One Family's Lust for Power Destroyed Syria." But when his eldest son, Bassel, died in a high-speed car crash, Syria's leader, who had survived several assassination attempts and was credited with transforming his country into a regional power, turned to Bashar to succeed him.

At the time, this aloof and timid son was studying to be an eye doctor at London's prestigious Western Eye Hospital. It was a discipline he chose, Bashar Assad would later often say, according to Dagher, because ophthalmology involves little blood.

However, once chosen by his father for the presidency, "he was on a quest to slay his inner demons" writes Dagher, in his book. "Bashar set out to prove that he could be as cutthroat and ruthless as his father, if not more so."

THE WAR IS OVER

Iraqi PM visits Syria in first trip since Syrian war



Sun, July 16, 2023 
By Timour Azhari

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani began an official visit to Syria on Sunday, the first by an Iraqi premier since the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011, in a trip aimed at securing their shared border and bolstering economic ties.

Iraq and Syria, which have close economic, military and political ties to regional heavyweight Iran, maintained relations throughout Syria's civil war even as other Arab states withdrew their ambassadors and closed their embassies in Syria.

Baghdad and Damascus, along with Shi'ite armed groups backed by Iran, cooperated in the fight against militant group Islamic State, which spread from Iraq into Syria and at one point controlled more than a third of both countries.

Farhad Alaaldin, foreign affairs adviser to the prime minister, said Sudani was set to discuss combatting the flow of drugs, especially the amphetamine Captagon, and preventing the infiltration of Islamic State militants over their shared 600km border.

The prime minister would also discuss trade and economic cooperation and possibilities for reopening an oil export pipeline in the Mediterranean, which could help Iraq diversify its export routes, he said.

Sudani's visit comes as other countries, including Saudi Arabia, rebuild relations with Damascus after years of tensions.

Syria was suspended from the Arab League in 2011 over Assad's brutal crackdown on protests and several Gulf states supported the armed opposition to his rule.

But Assad has regained control of most of Syria with military and economic support from Russia and Iran, Syria was readmitted to the Arab League in May, and regional countries are seeking dialogue with him to end drug smuggling and return millions of refugees.

Syria has agreed to help end drug trafficking across its borders with Jordan and Iraq.

Top Syrian officials and relatives of Assad have been put on sanctions lists in recent months in the United States, United Kingdom and European Union over their alleged ties to the trade.

The Syrian government denies involvement in the drug trade.

(Reporting by Timour Azhari; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)

Iraqi premier in Syria for first visit in over a decade to discuss boosting cooperation

In this photo released by the Syrian official news agency SANA, Syrian President Bashar Assad, right, welcomes Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during a welcome ceremony in Damascus, Syria, Sunday, July 16, 2023. Iraq's prime minister held talks Sunday with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus during the first such trip by an Iraqi premier to the war-torn country since the 12-year conflict began. 

(SANA via AP)

SAMAR KASSABALI and ABDULRAHMAN ZEYAD
Updated Sun, July 16, 2023 

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — Iraq’s prime minister held talks Sunday with Syrian President Bashar Assad in Damascus during the first trip of its kind to the war-torn country since the 12-year conflict began.

The two leaders told reporters that they discussed fighting drugs, the return of Syrian refugees and the imperative of lifting Western sanctions imposed in Syria. They also talked about Israel's strikes on the war-torn country and water shortages in the Euphrates River that cuts through both countries because of projects in Turkey.

Iraq and Syria have had close relations for years even after many Arab countries withdrew their ambassadors from Damascus and Syria’s membership in the 22-member Arab League was suspended because of the crackdown on protesters in 2011.

Assad received Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, who was heading a high-ranking delegation, at the presidential palace in Damascus. They discussed mutual relations and cooperation between the two neighboring countries among other issues, according to the office of Syria’s president.

Al-Sudani’s office said in a statement that talks revolved around ways of expanding cooperation in the fields of trade, economy, transportation, tourism, how to combat climate change and collaboration to fight terrorism.

Security cooperation against extremist groups was likely to top the agenda for the two-day visit. The two countries, where Iran enjoys wide influence, have a joint 600 kilometer-long (373-mile) border. In June 2014, the Islamic State group declared the establishment of a self-styled “caliphate,” a traditional model of Islamic rule, in wide areas under its control in Iraq and Syria.

After a yearslong campaign that left tens of thousands dead in both countries, IS was defeated in Iraq in 2017 and in March 2019 in Syria. In recent years, Syrian government forces regained control of much of Syria with the help of Russia and Iran.

Earlier this year, Syria’s membership in the Arab League was reinstated and Assad attended the Arab summit that was held in Saudi Arabia in May.

Assad referred to Turkey without naming it as being behind the “theft” of Iraq and Syria's shares in the Eurphrates River in what is affecting agriculture in both countries. Assad also said that they discussed cooperating on fighting drugs, a scourge he said is "no different from terrorism as it can destroy the society the way terrorism does.”

Syria's conflict that started in March 2011 has killed half a million people and displaced half the country's pre-war population of 23 million, including more than 5 million who are refugees.

“We are interested in working through official and government channels to solve the issue of refugees and guarantee a safe return for them as soon as the situation becomes stable in places where they reside,” al-Sudani said. Iraq is hosting about 250,000 Syrian refugees.

Al-Sudani was invited to visit Damascus during a trip by Syria’s Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad to Baghdad last month.

The Iraqi prime minister said countries around the world that have citizens in Syria's al-Hol camp, home to tens of thousands of mostly women and children linked to IS, should start working on repatriating them as Baghdad is doing.

Al-Hol camp in northeast Syria near the Iraqi border holds about 51,000 people, including the wives, widows and other family members of IS militants. Most are Syrians and Iraqis. But there are also around 8,000 women and children from 60 other nationalities who live in a part of the camp known as the Annex. They are generally considered the most die-hard IS supporters among the camp residents.

Many countries are refusing to repatriate their citizens out of concern that they might be a security threat. Iraq has repatriated hundreds of families over the past months where they undergo rehabilitation programs.

The U.S. has a presence in both Syria and Iraq and Syrian officials have been calling for the withdrawal of American troops from the country who first arrived in 2015.

On any given day there are at least 900 U.S. forces in Syria, along with an undisclosed number of contractors attempting to prevent the resurgence of the Islamic State group. U.S. special operations forces also move in and out of the country but are usually in small teams and are not included in the official count.

U.S.-led coalition forces have officially ended their combat mission in Iraq, but continue to play an advisory role to Iraqi forces in the fight against the Islamic State extremist group.

____

Zeyad reported from Baghdad. Associated Press writer Bassem Mroue contributed from Beirut.

Terrorists, U.S. forces and a brutal dictator: Whatever happened to Syria?

A former CIA leader looks at the “potential powder keg” in Syria — where Russia and Iran are dug in, and Bashar al-Assad has kept a firm grip on power.

John McLaughlin
Special Contributor
February 9, 2022

The Feb. 3 U.S. military operation that killed the Islamic State leader Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi threw a light not just on continuing terrorism in Syria, but also on an uncomfortable truth: Syria today ranks high among the world’s most dangerous unresolved problems. Three years after the dismantling of the ISIS territorial “caliphate” — which spanned large swathes of Syria and Iraq — terrorist cells still carry out attacks, a brutal dictator remains in charge and regional powers vie for zones of influence.

It is now more than a decade since the first flames of revolution were fanned inside Syria. By the latter part of 2011, the year of the Arab Spring, the dictators in Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen had been toppled; Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi was dead. Analysts in the region and beyond assumed the Syrian leader, Bashar al-Assad, would be next. In August of that year, the U.S. issued a call for regime change. “For the sake of the Syrian people,” President Barack Obama said, “the time has come for President Assad to step aside.” A senior administration official told the Washington Post the White House was “certain Assad is on his way out.”

Nearly 11 years later, the root causes of the Syrian war remain unaddressed, diplomacy is stalled and Syria is a potential powder keg for the region and beyond. Terrorists are still there, U.S. forces are still there, and so are Assad and his regime, which attacked its own people with barrel bombs and chemical weapons.

A decade later, it’s worth asking: What happened to Syria?

A portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad hangs in the old city of Syria's capital, 

Damascus, on Feb. 1. (LOUAI BESHARA/AFP via Getty Images)

Geopolitics: The “great game” in Syria

The Biden administration, its plate overflowing with new crises, has pursued a narrow-gauge policy toward Syria — focusing on terrorism and to a lesser extent humanitarian problems. But unless the United States is preparing to surrender its historic influence and leadership role in the Middle East, it will have to step up its game in Syria. Others have been at work.

In the six years since major powers began colliding in Syria, Russia comes closest to looking like a winner. Vladimir Putin intervened skillfully with his military, saved and propped up his beleaguered ally, secured permanent naval basing rights at the Mediterranean port of Tartus and an air base at Hmeimim in western Syria, drew leaders to Moscow for consultations, and projected an image of a country that stands by its allies. The defense ministry can claim its own “win” — having tested 600 new weapons systems during the war.

Moscow also gained a Mediterranean platform for its intervention in Libya with combat aircraft and mercenaries, mostly in support of the commander opposing the U.N.-backed government. In short, Syria was instrumental in securing one of Putin’s major goals: projecting Russia as a “great power” with expanding global influence.

Iran has put down roots in Syria and appears likely to be there for the long term. By 2018, Iran had mobilized about 2,500 conventional forces and Revolutionary Guards to fight, along with an estimated 8,000 to 12,000 foreign fighters from Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon and Pakistan. Last year, scholars counted at least 14 areas of Iranian or pro-Iranian presence in Syria, compared with only three in 2013. Iran has dug in with particular determination in Deir al-Zour province in eastern Syria, along the Iraqi border, where its activities typify Tehran’s approach — providing services to the population, taking control of major cities and recruiting for its militia forces.

Most important, all this has secured for Iran the western end of its long-sought land bridge from Tehran to the Mediterranean, which enables the country to move military supplies securely from Iran through parts of Iraq, into Syria and via Syria to its Hezbollah partner in Lebanon. This gives Iran proximity to targets in Israel and leaves Israel to face an Iranian rocket arsenal aimed at the Golan Heights.

Israel, according to Defense Minister Benny Gantz, will not allow Iranian proxies in Syria to “equip themselves with means of combat that will undermine our superiority in the region.” Accordingly, Israel last year stepped up aerial attacks in Syria. Israeli goals are to prevent the above-mentioned Iranian weapons smuggling to Hezbollah and to degrade Iranian-allied militias, especially those posing a threat to the Golan Heights.

Turkey’s role is maddeningly complex, its interests pulled in multiple directions. With several military divisions arrayed along the country’s northern border with Syria, it has been steadfast in opposing Assad’s rule; Turkey occupies the northern zone in part to prevent the regime’s recapture of the area. At the same time, Turkey seeks to diminish the role of the U.S.-allied Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), because it’s convinced these Kurds are merely an extension of Turkey’s outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which Ankara regards as a terrorist group. That in turn encourages Turkey to create refugee resettlement areas in the north, seeking to shift the demographic balance away from Kurdish domination — all of which risks pushing the Kurds closer to Assad, whom they have historically opposed. As I say, it’s complicated.

Along the way, Turkey has at times worked in concert with Russia when it comes to Syria — and then, more frequently, aimed to limit Russia’s role. In short, Turkey is all over the map — at least politically — seeking to find its balance and secure its interests amid all the colliding parties and interests.

The Kurds dominate the SDF, an amalgam of Syrian Kurds, Arabs and ethnic Turkmen that came together to fight ISIS in 2015. They are backed by the U.S., and with about 25,000 to 30,000 Kurdish-dominated troops in northeastern Syria, exert limited control over about a quarter of the country, struggling to fend off Turkey and maneuvering between Russia and Iran. Their longer-term goal is to gain autonomy for Syrian Kurds in any future peace settlement.

The U.S. presence

Where, then, is the United States?

The tangible American stake in all this is represented by the approximately 900 U.S. troops split between a base in the Kurdish-controlled northeast and a small garrison at al-Tanf, deep in territory under Syrian-Russian-Iranian control and near the juncture of the Syrian, Iraqi and Jordanian borders. These bases are what survived a push by President Donald Trump to withdraw completely in 2018 — a policy partly responsible for the resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis. Trump ultimately backed off, saying he would keep a small number of bases in Syria to secure its few oil fields — a fig leaf quickly embraced by defense officials who thought it would be a mistake to pull out completely.

Today, these forces conduct patrols, advise and support the Kurdish SDF in its battles with ISIS, and contribute some stability in areas contested by multiple forces. Although not openly discussed, I believe the northeastern base also provides a buffer against attacks on Kurds by NATO ally Turkey. The garrison in the southeast stakes a small U.S. claim in an area Assad and his allies want to secure, and which was attacked late last year by Iranian-backed fighters. The presence of U.S. forces at both locations also facilitates counterterrorist operations such as the strike against the ISIS leader al-Qurayshi.
Terrorism: ISIS remnants, al-Qaeda spinoff

As for terrorists in Syria, ISIS remains the most dangerous organization, shown most recently by its capture of a prison in northern Syria that took the Kurds — with U.S. support — a week of violent counteroffensives to reverse. Reliable estimates of current ISIS strength are hard to come by, but in 2020, the U.N. put the number at about 10,000 fighters — operating in small cells floating back and forth between Syria and Iraq.

Al-Qaeda per se has not been as much of a force in Syria; more significant is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which evolved from a local al-Qaeda affiliate. Although it adheres to a hard-line Salafist ideology, the group is making a concerted effort to blur its terrorist roots as it seeks to maintain a measure of control in the hotly contested northwestern province of Idlib. The province has long been a gathering spot for extremists; this was where the ISIS leader was found and killed.

A way forward?

As the U.S. weighs its policy and approach to Syria, it’s important to consider a few basic realities:
There is obviously no military solution, even if continued U.S. military presence is essential to the search for one. A decade of fighting has produced only a conflict frozen in place.
The U.N. envoy for Syria may continue to call meetings, but the U.N. process under Security Council Resolution 2254 — which called for a cease-fire and political solution — is moribund.
The U.S. has sacrificed much leverage but remains the only country with a chance to bridge the chasms blocking some compromise.
The U.S. can achieve nothing diplomatically without the participation of Russia, and perhaps Iran as well.
As doubts about U.S. staying power grow, the idea is taking hold in the Middle East that Assad is here to stay. The United Arab Emirates reopened its Damascus embassy in 2018; Oman returned its ambassador in 2020, and Bahrain in late 2021. Saudi Arabia has put out feelers in intelligence channels, and Egypt has talked about “returning Syria to the Arab fold.”

It’s not hard to understand how U.S. policymakers might look at the Syrian labyrinth and say: This is just too hard, our plates are too full, we’ll continue whacking terrorists but otherwise we will focus on more immediately pressing problems.

But for the U.S. to turn away is to signal that brutal dictators can abuse their populations mercilessly and remain in power; that Iran will have achieved its arc of influence across the Middle East; and that Russia has outmaneuvered the U.S. in a region important to U.S. allies, where historically Washington has been the “honest broker”. It will also likely mean that the 12 million Syrians either internally displaced or refugees outside the country — the most profound human displacement since World War II — will remain adrift; that the primary catalyst of the Syrian civil war — popular demand for an end to harsh rule by a minority clan — will remain unaddressed; and that Islamist extremists will remain able to find refuge, recruit and plot amid the continuing chaos.
Syrian families live in abandoned schools in Idlib, Syria, on Dec. 3, 2021. 

(Anadolu Agency/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

If the U.S. does choose to step up its game, any strategy must be long-term, gradual and clear about priorities. The ultimate goal remains political reconciliation and a new or transitional government committed to serving all its citizens — as envisioned in that U.N. resolution. While that looks like fantasy today, in the long term it may be possible to press Assad for the safe return of refugees with internationally monitored resettlement, and similar conditions for the reintegration of opposition forces. This was the recommended approach of U.S. Special Representative for Syria Engagement Jim Jeffrey — and it is a goal for which the U.S. could marshal strong international support.

A next priority could be limiting Iran’s role. The Iranians are currently too dug in to aim for expulsion any time soon, but it is not unrealistic to seek limits on its stockpiling of sophisticated weapons, for which the U.S. would need Russian leverage. This could be a follow-on objective if the U.S. and its partners succeed in renewing the 2015 deal limiting Iran’s nuclear program. Washington would need to think about what it might be willing to give Russia in return for its support. Were the U.S. to achieve some traction, there would be hope for bridging the “gulf of mistrust” that U.N. Syria Envoy Geir Pedersen said stymies the U.N. process.

U.S. policy on Syria over the last decade has been marked by an inability to decide among poor options. But Syria illustrates the old maxim in international politics that no decision almost always ends up equaling a decision, as others seize the initiative and fill vacuums. In Syria, time has been lost, and problems have metastasized. What is needed is constancy of purpose and clearly defined priorities — integrated with skillful diplomacy and a modest amount of force. The moment for such a combination may have passed, but the world is often surprisingly open to U.S. leadership — even when it shows up late.


John McLaughlin
Special Contributor
John McLaughlin is a former acting director of the CIA and a distinguished practitioner in residence at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Photo illustration: Mae Decena. Sources: Anadolu Agency/MediaNews Group/Bay Area News/SOPA Images/Picture Alliance/STRINGER/Getty Images