A $30 Billion Disaster Is Just the Tip of a Deadly Climate Cycle

Pakistan’s record flooding last year displaced millions and left the country reeling. As a new monsoon season approaches, recovery efforts are floundering.

Coco Liu and Faseeh Mangi
Published Jul 02, 2023 •

The refugee camp outside Karachi in May. "The already difficult living conditions of people affected by the 2022 flooding in Pakistan have been further exacerbated by the rain, making them even more vulnerable to future flooding," the UN noted in a recent report. 

Photographer: Asim Hafeez/Bloomberg Bloomberg RSS
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(Bloomberg) — When night falls in the refugee camp outside Karachi, Shanawaz Khoso worries about snake bites. The 38-year-old and his seven children sleep in tents alongside 5,000 other displaced villagers, partially exposed to the elements and to creatures that include scorpions and venomous snakes. When the sun rises, stifling heat and mountains of untreated sewage turn the camp into a breeding ground for disease. Fever and stomach pain are prevalent, but there are no doctors and there is no medicine.“We are living here out of necessity,” Khoso says. “Nothing is coming here now. We’re terrified.”

With monsoon season fast approaching, Pakistan has already seen heavy rains and strong winds resulting in dozens of fatalities, hundreds of injuries and damage to roads, houses and farmland. This year, though, the rain is falling on a country still reeling. Just 10 months ago, severe flooding in Pakistan killed over 1,700, displaced 8 million and cost the economy more than $30 billion.

Now crop shortages linger, thousands remain homeless and the country is struggling with rebuilding, food supply, health care and debt. Relief aid has largely dried up. As new rains threaten the same areas hit by last year’s floods, Pakistan finds itself at the mercy of a pernicious pattern: Climate change is driving more intense rainfall, which drives more intense flooding, which stymies recovery from past floods.

It’s a paradigm familiar to the other eight countries in what’s known as the Third Pole, which is facing the impacts of warmer air on both monsoons and melting mountain ice. Glaciers in Asia’s Hindu Kush Himalayan region could lose 80% of their current volume by the end of this century, according to a recent study, threatening the livelihoods of as many as 2 billion people downstream — roughly a quarter of the world’s population. Without effective mechanisms to finance their own recoveries, let alone prepare for future climate crises, developing nations are particularly unprepared. “Pakistan is an avatar for what happens when climate-vulnerable countries that are not climate-resilient are in the firing line of changed weather conditions,” says David Miliband, president of International Rescue Committee, a humanitarian aid group. “They’re on the front lines of something that’s going to be faced by other countries.”

A $30 Billion Disaster Is Just the Tip of a Deadly Climate Cycle

Coco Liu and Faseeh Mangi
Sun, July 2, 2023 

A $30 Billion Disaster Is Just the Tip of a Deadly Climate Cycle

(Bloomberg) -- When night falls in the refugee camp outside Karachi, Shanawaz Khoso worries about snake bites. The 38-year-old and his seven children sleep in tents alongside 5,000 other displaced villagers, partially exposed to the elements and to creatures that include scorpions and venomous snakes. When the sun rises, stifling heat and mountains of untreated sewage turn the camp into a breeding ground for disease. Fever and stomach pain are prevalent, but there are no doctors and there is no medicine.“We are living here out of necessity,” Khoso says. “Nothing is coming here now. We’re terrified.”

With monsoon season fast approaching, Pakistan has already seen heavy rains and strong winds resulting in dozens of fatalities, hundreds of injuries and damage to roads, houses and farmland. This year, though, the rain is falling on a country still reeling. Just 10 months ago, severe flooding in Pakistan killed over 1,700, displaced 8 million and cost the economy more than $30 billion.

Now crop shortages linger, thousands remain homeless and the country is struggling with rebuilding, food supply, health care and debt. Relief aid has largely dried up. As new rains threaten the same areas hit by last year’s floods, Pakistan finds itself at the mercy of a pernicious pattern: Climate change is driving more intense rainfall, which drives more intense flooding, which stymies recovery from past floods.

It’s a paradigm familiar to the other eight countries in what’s known as the Third Pole, which is facing the impacts of warmer air on both monsoons and melting mountain ice. Glaciers in Asia’s Hindu Kush Himalayan region could lose 80% of their current volume by the end of this century, according to a recent study, threatening the livelihoods of as many as 2 billion people downstream — roughly a quarter of the world’s population. Without effective mechanisms to finance their own recoveries, let alone prepare for future climate crises, developing nations are particularly unprepared. “Pakistan is an avatar for what happens when climate-vulnerable countries that are not climate-resilient are in the firing line of changed weather conditions,” says David Miliband, president of International Rescue Committee, a humanitarian aid group. “They’re on the front lines of something that’s going to be faced by other countries.”

Khoso and his family moved to the refugee camp last August, after his hometown of Shikarpur was inundated. But within two months, relief aid to the camp started to run out — first food supply dwindled, then electricity was shut off, then the two health clinics closed. Located roughly 65 kilometers (40 miles) from Karachi, the camp is too far for Khoso to find work on foot, but returning to Shikarpur isn’t an option: The rice paddies on which his family depended were lost in the flood.

“We use money from one crop to invest in the next one,” Khoso says. “That cycle has been broken.”

While Pakistan is no stranger to monsoons, 2022 was unprecedented. Flooding lasted more than four months, and at its height left a third of the country submerged. The worst climate disaster in the country’s history, the floods were responsible for an economic hit of more than $30 billion, or roughly 10% of Pakistan’s 2021 economic output.

In many regions, little has improved since. Across Sindh province, where more than half of schools were damaged by the flood water, children continue to study in the open, Pakistan’s foreign minister, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, said at a conference in May. Stagnant water has fueled the worst malaria outbreak in the country since 1973, according to the World Health Organization. Few rural clinics remain standing to provide much-needed medical treatment.

Among all the challenges, though, the biggest might be food. The flood’s impact on livestock and farmland has limited Pakistan’s ability to feed its citizens: 10.5 million people, or about 5% of the population, are experiencing acute food insecurity. The Pakistani rupee’s 30% decline against the dollar over the past year has also made imported food more expensive.

“Pakistan is facing a nutrition crisis,” the United Nations warned in a report last month. The country’s rate of severe acute malnutrition is twice the average for South Asia and four times higher than the global average, according to the UN.

“I’m very concerned that 33 million impacted [people] is not a number that any country has ever had to deal with as a single disaster,” Pakistan climate minister Sherry Rehman tells Bloomberg Green. “It is going to be very tough to rebuild even in three years.”

Many blame the lack of progress on a lack of funding. The World Bank estimates that Pakistan will need at least $16.3 billion for reconstruction and rehabilitation. Donors pledged $10 billion in relief at a UN conference in January, but it’s unclear how much of that money has been allocated. Out of 20 million Pakistanis in need, only 7.7 million have received disaster relief of some sort, according to UN data.

“Developing countries are repeatedly hit by climate-led disasters and the quantum damage is barely understood by international communities,” Rehman says, adding that financial institutions’ preference for loans instead of grants is complicating recovery efforts. Other troubled nations — war-torn Ukraine, earthquake-hit Turkey and drought-stricken Kenya — also compete with Pakistan for aid, which international donors say is shrinking amid wider economic uncertainty.

One of the most vulnerable countries to climate change, Pakistan is responsible for just 1% of global greenhouse gas emissions. That disconnect has put it at the forefront of conversations around “loss and damage,” shorthand for a program where developed nations compensate poorer nations for suffering linked to climate crises. World Weather Attribution, which researches the link between extreme weather and greenhouse gas pollution, found that climate change made rainfall in Pakistan 75% more intense last August than it would have been otherwise.

While Pakistan played a key role in getting UN climate negotiators to establish a loss-and-damage fund at last year’s COP27 climate conference, almost all of the details still need to be ironed out. It’s unclear how much of that will happen at COP28 later this year. Attendees at preparatory meeting in Germany last month came away concerned about unclear goals and inter-country bickering.

“It is still unknown when any funds might actually be made available to countries like Pakistan through [the loss-and-damage] mechanism,” says Lisa Dale, who researches climate-change adaptation at Columbia University.

A separate climate summit in Paris last month brought together more than 100 heads of government to address financial scarcity as the biggest impediment to climate action. A set of proposals known as the Bridgetown 2.0 agenda would create currency exchange guarantees, add disaster clauses to debt deals and foster more multilateral lending. But its political feasibility remains largely untested.

Pakistan’s slow recovery is creating a vicious cycle. Crop shortages caused by the flooding drove up food prices, then the government raised taxes and energy prices in an attempt to meet the terms of a loan deal with the International Monetary Fund. That pushed up inflation, which hit 38% in May compared to a year earlier. Pakistanis started cutting back on spending, and job opportunities dried up. In June, the country secured initial IMF approval for a $3 billion loan program, lowering the risk of sovereign default but increasing pressure to maintain fiscal discipline.

In a village near Jamshoro city in Sindh province, it’s not uncommon to see roofs made of plastic bags or houses missing walls. Five villagers there tell Bloomberg Green they haven’t received any funding for reconstruction, and none can afford to make repairs.

“I am just desperate. What can I do?” asks Fateh Mohammad, 70, who supports a family of 18 by doing odd jobs. Five years ago, Mohammad earned a daily wage of 500 to 1,000 rupees ($1.76 to $3.52); now he makes less than 300 rupees a day, barely enough to buy 2 kilograms (4.4 pounds) of flour.

Not far from Mohammad’s shelter is one housing Gulsher Mallah, 22, who lost his goats to the flood and now works at a roadside restaurant. “There is hardly any business at the restaurant now,” he says. Over the course of a morning, he might sell a single bottle of water.

As a changing climate makes rainfall and other extreme weather more intense, experts say Pakistan’s experience will be replicated elsewhere. Any country’s recovery efforts depend on how quickly and effectively authorities can marshal resources, allocate funds and complete the work of rebuilding. That puts developing countries at a self-perpetuating disadvantage.

“They lack resources, both financial and technical, to help them buffer a shock like flooding,” Dale says. “These pre-existing conditions contribute to higher risk and longer recovery when a natural disaster does occur.”

Although Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change, experts say the country has yet to establish a robust disaster-response system. Rehman argues that the scale of destruction from last year’s floods is unprecedented, making rebuilding a Herculean task. But even small adjustments could better prepare Pakistan for its next emergency, whether that means more coordination across aid organizations or rebuilding specifically with climate catastrophes in mind.

“The infrastructure has not become more climate-resilient,” says Adnan Khan, an Islamabad-based advisor at the nonprofit Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre. “Those communities have not been trained on how they can adapt to climate change.”

That’s where Yasmeen Lari comes in. In 1980, the 82-year-old architect co-founded the humanitarian organization Heritage Foundation Pakistan, which today has two training centers offering villagers free courses on building climate-resilient homes. Since 2010, Lari says Heritage has helped put up roughly 55,000 houses across Pakistan.

At the Heritage training center in Pono village in rural Sindh province, villagers learn to build octagon-shaped homes from bamboo, sand and straw. Each single-room structure takes about a week to put together, with construction costs roughly a tenth of those for a conventional concrete home. The houses are slightly elevated and thus suited for heavy rain: When the flooding hit Pono village last year, all 70 of its octagon houses held up, even as many conventional homes collapsed.

Since then, the village has become a place of pilgrimage. About 500 people have received training there over the past 10 months, and each is asked to share what they learned with 10 more villages after returning home. “It’s the poor helping each other out,” says Naheem Shah, project manager for Heritage’s Pono village center.

Heritage is part of a small but growing grassroots movement to make climate adaptation more accessible to Pakistanis. Climate activist Rida Rashid, who lost five members of her extended family to the 2022 flooding, is building an online platform with features that include climate change literature translated from English to South Asian languages and on-the-ground footage of climate disasters. Innovate Educate and Inspire Pakistan, a nonprofit based in Islamabad, has expanded its offering to include a climate education program for teachers.

But time is of the essence. Each monsoon season stands to exacerbate the aftermath of the last one. At the camp outside Karachi, Khoso says he dreads every raindrop that hits his family’s worn-out tents.

“We used to entertain guests,” he says of life before the flood. “Even if 10 people came, we didn’t have any problem serving them food. Our fortunes have completely changed.”

During April’s Eid holiday, an important Muslim festival for which wearing new clothes is custom, Khoso and his wife managed to dress up their children with donated outfits, but for the first time skipped their own. Having accumulated 30,000 rupees in debt since arriving at the camp, Khoso says they didn’t have the financial means — or the inclination — to celebrate.

“We are just sitting here now at God’s mercy,” he says.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

Himalayan icecap is melting faster than predicted

 

Himalayan icecap is melting faster than predicted

The mountains will lose 80 percent of snow and ice in this century

Written byNepali Times

Posted 1 July 2023 

Imja Glacier near Mt Everest has turned into a big lake in the past 20 years. Photo: Kiril Rusev via Nepali Times. Used with permission.

This article was originally published in Nepali Times and an edited version is republished on Global Voices as part of a content-sharing agreement.

Four years after scientists put out a worrying report about the melting Himalayan icecap, they have now warned that the problem is even more serious than earlier thought.

The new study provides what is said to be the most accurate assessment of snow, ice, and permafrost in the Himalayas to date: that Himalayan glaciers could lose up to 80 percent of their ice mass by the end of this century. The findings cite grave consequences, not just for the mountains, but for the nearly 2 billion people living downstream in Asian countries that depend on water from the world’s highest mountains.

Read More: The climate crisis is a water crisis in the Himalayas

The Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development ICIMOD had brought out the Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment in 2019. But the new report says Himalayan glaciers disappeared 65 percent faster in the 2010s than in the previous decades. At that rate, the melting will accelerate in the coming decades.

The Water, Ice, Society, and Ecosystems in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HI-WISE) report draws on recent scientific advances to map out how melting snow, ice, and permafrost in the mountains will affect water, ecosystems, and society in the Himalayan watershed.

The peer-reviewed study warns of grave consequences to the region that provides fresh water to a quarter of the world's population and is home to four global biodiversity hotspots.

The HI-WISE report projects “peak water” by mid-century after which there will be less and less water available on Himalayan rivers for irrigation, household use, industries and hydropower. At the same time, extreme weather due to climate change will also increase the risk of landslides and floods in this geologically and ecologically fragile mountain region.

The south face of Saipal Himal in western Nepal, showing shrinking ice over the past 15 years. Image via Nepali Times. Used with permission.

“Climate inaction is accelerating,” warns Saleem ul Huq of the International Centre for Climate Change and Development in Bangladesh. “This report shows that the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. We must act now to protect this region and its people.”

The report says the impact of the melting cryosphere on fragile mountain habitats is particularly acute, and it will have cascading impacts on ecosystems and biodiversity.

“With 67 percent of the HKH's eco-regions and 39 percent of the region's four global biodiversity hotspots outside protected areas, the HKH’s extraordinary biodiversity is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts,” the report warns.

Some 240 million people who live in the Himalayas and another 1.65 billion downstream in 16 countries of Asia will be affected by water shortages as the Himalayan icecap melts. Farmers in the Himalayas are already facing crop loss, fodder shortages and livestock deaths due to extreme weather.

“The hazards are becoming more complex and devastating,” says the report that was prepared by 35 scientists from 12 countries.

The report urges policymakers to prepare for the cascading impacts of climate change that provides fresh water to a quarter of the world’s population. It calls for urgent international support and regional cooperation for inevitable, near-term loss and damage, and to help communities adapt.

Scientists warn rapid melting of Himalayan glaciers will impact us all



Arshad R. Zargar
Thu, June 22, 2023 

New Delhi — Glaciers in the Hindu Kush region of the Himalaya mountains are melting at the fastest rate ever and could shed as much as 80% of their ice by the end of this century if global warming continues unchecked, a group of international scientists warned in an alarming new report.

The study says the melting of the glaciers will directly impact billions of people in Asia — causing floods, landslides, avalanches and food shortages as farmland is inundated. Indirectly, the melting of such a vast reserve of fresh water could impact countries as far away as the United States, even the whole of humanity, according to the report by the Nepal-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

The academic paper warns the ice and snow reserves in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) region are melting at an "unprecedented" rate and that the environmental changes to the sensitive region are "largely irreversible."

Glaciers are seen in the Pamir Mountains, a range in Central Asia formed by the junction of the Himalayas, Tian Shan, Karakoram, Kunlun and Hindu Kush mountain ranges, as seen in a file photo taken from the Karakoram Highway, in Xinjiang, China. / Credit: The Pamir Mountains are a mountain range in Central Asia formed by the junction of the Himalayas, Tian Shan, Karakoram, Kunlun and Hindu Kush mountain ranges. They are among the world's highest mountains and since Victorian times they have been known as 

The HKH region spans roughly 2,175 miles, from Afghanistan to Myanmar, and is home to the highest mountains in the world, including Mount Everest. It contains the largest volume of ice on Earth outside the two polar regions and is the source of water for 12 rivers that flow through 16 Asian nations.

Those rivers provide fresh water to some 240 million people living in the HKH region, and about 1.65 billion people further downstream, the report says.

For all of those people, the melting of the glaciers would be a disaster. The report says they will face extreme weather events and crop loss that will force mass-migration.

Deadly floods and avalanches in the Himalayan region have already increased over the past decade or so, and scientists have linked the greater frequency and intensity of the disasters to climate change and global warming.

The ICIMOD report lays out three potential scenarios for the glaciers of the HKH: If there is a 1.5-2 degree Celsius increase in the Earth's average temperature above pre-industrial levels, the glaciers will lose 30% to 50% of their ice volume by 2100. If the global temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius, the glaciers could lose 75% of their ice and, with a 4-degree rise, the researchers say there will be a loss of up to 80% of the ice in the HKH.

"These projections are of very high confidence as we say in the scientific language," Dr. Philippus Wester, the ICIMOD's Chief Scientist on Water Resources Management and the lead editor of the report, told CBS News. "In layman's language, it means we have no doubt whatsoever that at 2 degrees Celsius global warming, we will lose 50% of the glacial ice mass in the region."

The report notes that the Himalayan glaciers lost ice at a rate 65% faster between 2010 and 2019 than over the previous decade (2001-2010).

"This is a lot, this is alarming," Wester told CBS News."On human time scales, we have never seen glacial melt this rapid, this fast… this is unprecedented."

Other research shows Mount Everest's glaciers have lost the equivalent of 2,000 years' worth of ice over just the past three decades. In a 2019 report, the ICIMOD said the Himalayan glaciers of the region would lose at least one third of their ice if the average global temperature was limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But with new technology and more data becoming available over the last five years, the scientists found circumstances worse than they expected, Wester said.

Global impact of the melting Himalayan glaciers

The impacts of the rapid glacial melt in the Himalayas will be felt around the world, Izabella Koziell, deputy director general of the ICIMOD, CBS News this week [video available at the top of this article].

"Even if this feels remote to us sitting far away, it is going to affect us — whether that is through mass people movement or sea-level rise. When the glaciers in the Himalayas melt, the ice sheets in Greenland, Arctic and Antarctic are also melting. This means there will be sea level rise, there will be quite dramatic changes in ocean circulation as a result of increase in fresh water into oceans, and this will have huge impacts on us," Koziell said.

"The people who are losing their livelihoods, of which there are 2 billion people — that's a quarter of the world's population — where will they go? They will have to go and find safer places and we will have to offer those safer places for them to live," Koziell said.

Earlier this month, scientists warned at the Bonn Climate Change Conference of the worrying speed and scale of ice-melt worldwide. Another study, published last year, said the Arctic could start to see periods during the summer without any ice remaining at all by 2030, even if emissions are cut drastically.

"Clarion call" for urgent climate action

Scientists are calling for urgent action to slow global warming to preserve as much of the ice mass in the Himalayas as possible.

"To prevent additional ice loss, greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced through the use of clean and renewable energy sources… cooperation among Himalayan nations and international organizations is required," Professor Anjal Prakash, an author on the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), told CBS News.

"We need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as we can. The less melt we have, the better it is because it takes such a long time to recover from that loss," the ICIMOD's lead editor Wester told CBS News.

The U.N.'s IPCC says limiting warming to around 1.5 degrees Celsius requires global greenhouse gas emissions to peak before 2025, and be reduced by 43% by 2030. The world is not currently on course to keep those targets within reach.

"This is a clarion call," Wester told CBS News. "The world is not doing enough because we are still seeing an increase in the emissions year-on-year. We are not even at the point of a turnaround in terms of emissions."

"The change we are causing now will not stop even if we keep emissions at current levels," Koziell told CBS News, but she added that "all hope is not lost."

"If we commit to decarbonisation now, we still have an open window. We seriously need to keep that window open," Koziell said. "We need to seriously commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and whatever investments we make now, will be a benefit for the future."

Himalayan glaciers could lose 80% of their volume if global warming isn't controlled, study finds


 A new report Tuesday, June 20, 2023, from a Nepal-based research organization finds that water security for nearly 2 billion people living downstream of rivers that originate in the Himalayan ranges will likely be threatened by the end of this century due to rapid glacier melt if global warming is not controlled. 

(AP Photo/Niranjan Shrestha, File)


SIBI ARASU
Mon, June 19, 2023 

BENGALURU, India (AP) — Glaciers are melting at unprecedented rates across the Hindu Kush Himalayan mountain ranges and could lose up to 80% of their volume this century if greenhouse gas emissions aren't sharply reduced, according to a report.

The report Tuesday from Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development warned that flash floods and avalanches would grow more likely in coming years, and that the availability of fresh water could be curtailed for nearly 2 billion people who live downstream of 12 rivers that originate in the mountains.

Ice and snow in the Hindu Kush Himalayan ranges are an important source of water for those rivers, which flow through 16 countries in Asia and provide fresh water to 240 million people in the mountains and another 1.65 billion downstream.

“The people living in these mountains who have contributed next to nothing to global warming are at high risk due to climate change,” said Amina Maharjan, a migration specialist and one of the report’s authors. “Current adaptation efforts are wholly insufficient, and we are extremely concerned that without greater support, these communities will be unable to cope.”

Various earlier reports have found that the cryosphere — regions on Earth covered by snow and ice — are among the worst affected by climate change. Recent research found that Mount Everest's glaciers, for example, have lost 2,000 years of ice in just the past 30 years.

“We map out for the first time the linkages between cryosphere change with water, ecosystems and society in this mountain region,” Maharjan said.

Among the key findings from Tuesday's report are that the Himalayan glaciers disappeared 65% faster since 2010 than in the previous decade, and that reducing snow cover due to global warming will result in reduced fresh water for people living downstream. The study found that 200 glacier lakes across these mountains are deemed dangerous, and the region could see a significant spike in glacial lake outburst floods by the end of the century.

The study found that communities in the mountain regions are being affected by climate change far more than many other parts of the world. It says changes to the glaciers, snow and permafrost of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region driven by global warming are “unprecedented and largely irreversible.”

Effects of climate change are already felt by Himalayan communities, sometimes acutely. Earlier this year the Indian mountain town of Joshimath began sinking and residents had to be relocated within days.

“Once ice melts in these regions, it's very difficult to put it back to its frozen form,” said Pam Pearson, director of the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, who was not involved with the report.

She added, “It’s like a big ship in the ocean. Once the ice starts going, it’s very hard to stop. So, with glaciers, especially the big glaciers in the Himalayas, once they start losing mass, that’s going to continue for a really long time before it can stabilize.”

Pearson said it is extremely important for Earth's snow, permafrost and ice to limit warming to the 1.5 degrees Celsius agreed to at the 2015 Paris climate conference.

“I get the sense that most policymakers don't take the goal seriously but, in the cryosphere, irreversible changes are already happening," she said.

___

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

___

Follow AP’s climate change coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

Himalayan glaciers could lose 80% of their volume if global warming not controlled, study finds

BENGALURU, India (AP) — Glaciers are melting at unprecedented rates across the Hindu Kush Himalayan mountain ranges and could lose up to 80% of their current volume this century if greenhouse gas emissions aren't sharply reduced, according to a new report.

The report Tuesday from Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development warned that flash floods and avalanches would grow more likely in coming years, and that the availability of fresh water would be affected for nearly 2 billion people who live downstream of 12 rivers that originate in the mountains.

Ice and snow in the Hindu Kush Himalayan ranges is an important source of water for those rivers, which flow through 16 countries in Asia and provide fresh water to 240 million people in the mountains and anther 1.65 billion downstream.

“The people living in these mountains who have contributed next to nothing to global warming are at high risk due to climate change,” said Amina Maharjan, a migration specialist and one of the report’s authors. “Current adaptation efforts are wholly insufficient, and we are extremely concerned that without greater support, these communities will be unable to cope.”

Various earlier reports have found that the cryosphere — regions on Earth covered by snow and ice — are among the worst affected by climate change. Recent research found that Mount Everest's glaciers, for example, have lost 2,000 years of ice in just the past 30 years.

“We map out for the first time the linkages between cryosphere change with water, ecosystems and society in this mountain region,” Maharjan said.

Among the key findings from Tuesday's report are that the Himalayan glaciers disappeared 65% faster since 2010 than in the previous decade and reducing snow cover due to global warming will result in reduced fresh water for people living downstream. The study found that 200 glacier lakes across these mountains are deemed dangerous, and the region could see a significant spike in glacial lake outburst floods by the end of the century.

The study found that communities in the mountain regions are being affected by climate change far more than many other parts of the world. It says changes to the glaciers, snow and permafrost of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region driven by global warming are “unprecedented and largely irreversible."

Effects of climate change are already felt by Himalayan communities sometimes acutely. Earlier this year the Indian mountain town of Joshimath began sinking and residents had to be relocated within days.

“Once ice melts in these regions, it's very difficult to put it back to its frozen form,” said Pam Pearson, director of the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, who was not involved with the report.

She added, “It’s like a big ship in the ocean. Once the ice starts going, it’s very hard to stop. So, with glaciers, especially the big glaciers in the Himalayas, once they start losing mass, that’s going to continue for a really long time before it can stabilize.”

Pearson said it is extremely important for Earth's snow, permafrost and ice to limit warming to the 1.5 degrees Celsius agreed to at the 2015 Paris climate conference.

“I get the sense that most policymakers don't take the goal seriously but, in the cryosphere, irreversible changes are already happening," she said.

___

Follow AP’s climate change coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment

___

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Sibi Arasu, The Associated Press

Female Afghan veterans work toward fresh start in Virginia


Heather Rousseau, The Roanoke Times
Sun, April 9, 2023

LONG READ

BLACKSBURG, Va. — Sima Gul hiked the steep terrain of the Hindu Kush in Afghanistan, gripping an M4 carbine. Her platoon moved silently and swiftly across the barren landscape, cloaked by the dark of night and navigating the mountainous terrain through the green glow of night vision goggles.

Even in the below-freezing temperature, Gul felt sweat trickle inside her body armor. Hours passed as she trudged alongside the U.S. military tracking down the Taliban in her homeland. It was but one episode in Gul’s six years as a member of the Afghan Female Tactical Platoon, a partner to U.S. Special Operations forces that served as a covert unit on combat missions against the Taliban.

Afghan soldier seeking US asylum hopes for ‘American dream’

Two years later, in the middle of the night in a Blacksburg apartment on the other side of the world, Gul clutched a smartphone instead of a rifle, staying awake late at night talking on the phone to family that remains in Afghanistan. She worries about their safety and about her mother, who lost the use of her legs in an explosion at an airport after the Taliban regained control of the country in August 2021.

“They don’t know any minute if they are going to be alive or the Taliban is going to attack their house and grab everything and kill them or not,” Gul said of her family, speaking in her native Dari language through a translator.

Memories of loved ones who died in war haunt her as she tries to make a new life for herself and her 2-year-old son, Amir. Gul settled in Blacksburg alongside other Afghan women soldiers who fought alongside Americans, but whose fates in the United States are unclear.

Gul, 26, said she dreamed of studying art and becoming an actress before she decided to join the Afghan military.

“This is breaking all the taboos,” Gul said about women’s military service in her country. “It doesn’t matter how they think; it was my goal to join and I did it.”

A frame in Sima Gul's living room, shows a collage of images. Gul, right, in her Afghan military uniform, and her husband in his, left, with their son, center in Blacksburg, Va. Gul met her husband while serving with the Afghan Female Tactical Platoon. He was killed during a battle with the Taliban shortly after they were married and when she was pregnant with their son. (Heather Rousseau/The Roanoke Times via AP)More

Female Tactical Platoon members were an advantage for the U.S. Special Forces against the Taliban because of their gender. Female platoon members escorted women and children to safety where they were searched and questioned.

“Men cannot search the body of a woman in Afghan culture,” Gul said. “We could communicate with Taliban’s women to get more information, asking a lot of questions and also searching them to see if there are any weapons or explosive devices.”

Gul served in the thick of combat.

“The only mission that I will never forget was the time that there was an explosion, I was so scared and freaked out,” Gul said of the blast that killed five male Afghan soldiers. “All of their body parts were shattered. They had missing limbs.”

Gul met her husband while serving with the Afghan military. He died in a separate explosion in 2020, during a raid on the Taliban. He had recently returned to active duty following the couple’s honeymoon. Gul had told him that she was pregnant, shortly before he died in the explosion.

“Amir is the only precious thing I have from my husband,” she said, tears running down her cheeks.

More than 40 FTP fighters were relocated to the United States after the Taliban takeover, with the highest number of former FTP members in Blacksburg, said Rebekah Edmondson, program manager of the Afghan Rescue and Resettlement Program sponsored by the PenFed Foundation, which provides support and assistance to former members of the Female Tactical Platoon.
Seeking asylum

Gul and her colleagues are among more than 70,000 Afghans who were evacuated from their homeland and came to the U.S. on humanitarian parole after the U.S. military left Afghanistan. The parole was authorized for two years under President Joe Biden and will expire in August.

Gul and other FTP members are waiting to hear back about their asylum applications. Another glimmer of hope is for Congress to pass the Afghan Adjustment Act, which could give them permanent status in the United States. So far, however, Congress has not passed the bill, which has been in House and Senate committees since last year. Gul worries that she and other FTP fighters could be returned to Afghanistan if Congress does not act.

Edmondson worked with Gul in Kabul as part of the U.S. Army’s Cultural Support Team that trained the Female Tactical Platoon.

“Sima always brought positivity to an otherwise really challenging environment,” Edmondson said. “There was a lot of very difficult challenges and barriers to overcome, and irrespective of that, she’d show up with a smile on her face and she also brought this certain kind of flair.”

Edmondson said she is concerned about members of the Female Tactical Platoon who are still in Afghanistan, who could be in danger of Taliban reprisals against them or their families. She explains that not only military equipment was left behind, but also computer data systems have been compromised that could identify Afghans who worked with the U.S. government.

More than 8,000 Special Immigrant Visas were granted to Afghans who aided the U.S. government, according to the Department of State and Department of Homeland Security. SIVs grant people who aided the U.S. government permanent residence.

The Afghan Adjustment Act, which has received bipartisan support in Congress, would expand eligibility for SIVs to certain Afghan nationals and provides a pathway to permanent residence for at-risk Afghan allies and relatives, after additional vetting. The act was stripped from an omnibus spending bill in December, dousing hopes of thousands of refugees and angering supporters.

Plan to boost visas for Afghan allies isn’t enough, advocates warn

The bill has languished in both the House and Senate judiciary committees since last year. It is unclear if Congress will get a chance to vote on the bill.

U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., who is not on the Senate Judiciary Committee, said he supports the Afghan Adjustment Act.

“Our Afghan allies were critical to supporting U.S. personnel,” Kaine said in an email. “I was proud that Virginia played such a vital role during the 2021 evacuation mission, but we must continue to do more to help them and their families, including by passing the Afghan Adjustment Act.”
Chances to learn

The Blacksburg Refugee Partnership and The Secular Society helped bring together the Afghan military women, all of whom served together there. They are making new homes for themselves in an apartment complex wedged against the woods in the college town. (The Secular Society is a Blacksburg-based nonprofit that has assisted other refugees and has funded a fellowship that has supported this reporting.)

Gul arrived at the Roanoke-Blacksburg Regional Airport on a rainy December evening, greeted by a terminal filled with smiling faces. Friends from the Afghan military, volunteers with Blacksburg Refugee Partnership and mentors from the Cultural Support Team, including Edmondson, welcomed Gul and Amir to their new home in Blacksburg with a bouquet of balloons, some which read, “It’s your day!”

Gul pushed her sleeping son in his stroller. Fellow Female Tactical Platoon member Azizgul Ahmadi was one of the first to embrace her.

Gul and Ahmadi served together in Afghanistan and have been living in Blacksburg along with fellow Female Tactical Platoon members and family members, all of whom fled their home country after the Taliban takeover. One woman came to Blacksburg with her husband and their daughter. Ahmadi came with her teenage sister.

Gul initially relocated to Salt Lake City, Utah, with the aid of U.S. immigration officials, before moving to Blacksburg with help from PenFed Foundation, Blacksburg Refugee Partnership and Sisters of Service. The latter group is comprised of American women veterans who served in Afghanistan with the Cultural Support Teams that trained FTP fighters, and who now work to resettle Afghan women who fought with them. Gul’s mentor through Sisters of Service, Becca Moss, greeted her in Roanoke at the airport.

Gul said she moved to Blacksburg to be with her peers from the Afghan military, and because of the partnership’s support.

In Utah, Gul said she had a full-time job, her driving permit and child care for Amir, but she had little time to learn English and struggled to find people to teach her the new language. Blacksburg offered an opportunity to not only live among friends but to focus on learning English.

“I want to learn English so I can stand on my own two feet,” Gul said, using some of the English she has been learning.

In Utah, Gul also did not have access to the dedicated volunteers she now has through Blacksburg Refugee Partnership, which teaches her English four days a week. In Blacksburg, The Secular Society provides Gul with funds that will allow her to study English at Virginia Tech’s Language and Cultural Institute when she is ready for the advanced program, and to work toward her academic goals.

Edmondson explained that the amount of support offered by Blacksburg Refugee Partnership is unmatched.

“Blacksburg is a unique community in that you’ve got so many volunteers who dedicate so much of their time and their energy and attention to helping these people,” Edmondson said. “The support that the families receive from Blacksburg Refugee Partnership is just exponentially more impactful.”

The Secular Society provides BRP financial support for the Afghan women, helping them gain their independence in the United States. The Secular Society pays for all living and educational expenses for the Afghan military members as they work toward their educational goals and study English. The women, including Gul and Ahmadi, are referred to as TSS Scholars.

Fighting for a better life

Ahmadi did not know how to speak English when she arrived in the United States with her teenage sister a little more than a year ago.

Sima Gul, center, holds her son, Amir Mazlom Yar, as Azizgul Ahmadi, right, reaches for him during a gathering at her home, welcoming Gul to Blacksburg, Va., on Dec.9, 2022. (Heather Rousseau/The Roanoke Times via AP)

“I did not know my ABCs,” she said, her English now vastly improved.

She feels a sense of responsibility to help Afghan women who continue to suffer under Taliban rule.

“I am very sad about the Afghan women, because I am here and I am safe and I have a good life right now, but I think about the women in Afghanistan who have to stay home and not go to work or school.”

In Afghanistan, Ahmadi, 28, was a police officer before joining the Female Tactical Platoon. She studied science and law for four years at Kabul University and was working toward her master’s degree in criminology when the Taliban took over.

She wanted to fight the Taliban because she hoped for a better life for Afghan women. The American action films that she watched while growing up influenced her.

“As a kid I always watched American movies, like Arnold (Schwarzenegger) and Rambo. I always want to be strong and fight the bad people.”
Happy memories scarce

Gul and Ahmadi walked to class, their backpacks filled with English learning books, and entered a mobile home owned by Blacksburg United Methodist Church.

The English class, which focuses on communication for daily life, is taught four days a week through Literacy Volunteers of the New River Valley, in partnership with Blacksburg Refugee Partnership.

“This class is a skill-up class,” said class instructor Anne Abbott, a board member with the refugee partnership, explaining that the students focus on English to achieve real-life goals.

The Afghan military women have a variety of English learning options, Abbott explained, including scholarships through The Secular Society to attend classes at the Language and Culture Institute at Virginia Tech, a program that is part of the university’s outreach to international students. Abbott said that the English classes are rigorous and can be more challenging, because they focus on language that is beneficial for academia. It can also be a challenge for working mothers to meet the class demands .

During Abbott’s English class, four women sat around a table in a room plastered with posters of brightly colored letters and numbers, along with maps of the world and the United States.

Abbott asked the women to break into groups with individual tutors and share stories about happy memories.

Ahmadi, however, could not think of happy memories.

“I was forced to marry when I was 12,” she said, recalling how she had to stay home and cook and clean for her husband. Her family was able to help her divorce her husband, and she got a job to help financially support her family.

Ahmadi also recalled when she was 8, before the U.S. occupation, when her dad was kidnapped and tortured by the Taliban. She said her father was returned but has trouble walking because the Taliban whipped the soles of his feet, leaving permanent injuries.

Ahmadi started to cry. Soon, so did the other Afghan women in the room.

Gul talked about her son, but then shared about the tragic death of her husband.

“Amir brings me happiness,” Gul said. She tried to explain that her husband was dead.

“He is shaheed,” she said, pausing to think of the word Americans would understand. “He is martyr. Nothing is the same.”

Happy memories were scarce, but support from friends was abundant.

After class, Abbott drove Ahmadi to work at a local sub shop, so she could swap an hourlong bus ride for a five-minute commute.

Gul walked to the grocery store, pushing Amir in his stroller through the woods behind her apartment complex. Amir watched the ground, holding his toy truck as his mom struggled over the rocky, rooted path.

Gul spent most of her time in the produce section at the grocery store before venturing down an aisle filled with kids’ drink box options.

“Is this just apple juice?” she wondered aloud, trying to read a list of ingredients on a box.

A changed homeland

Wearing a long pink dress embellished with white sequins, Ahmadi excitedly welcomed guests to her apartment for her sister Shah Pari’s 17th birthday party.

Pari wore a traditional Afghan dress her mother sent from Afghanistan specifically for her birthday.

More than 20 people — Afghan refugees and volunteers from Blacksburg Refugee Partnership — packed the two-bedroom apartment.

A heap of rice next to a circular pattern of cucumber, tomato and radish on a platter were part of an elaborate food display. Pink balloons were twisted into the shapes that spelled “#HBD” —shorthand for “happy birthday.”

Pari beamed as she sat down to a birthday cake topped with two flickering candles, a 1 and a 7. She stared for a moment and covered her face with her hands and began to cry. Gul watched from across the room, tending to Amir, who was crying because he wanted to open the birthday presents. She understood her friend’s tears.

Ahmadi motioned to party guests Abbott and Scott Bailey, president of the Blacksburg Refugee Partnership, to step in. With five individual hands joining to hold the knife, they cut the first slice of cake.

Abbott and Bailey chatted with the Afghan women and their family members. Bailey said how proud he was of an Afghan military member’s brother who got his driver’s license and also of an Afghan woman’s 11-year-son who was student of the week at Gilbert Linkous Elementary School in Blacksburg.

“How did we get so lucky to be here and with such incredible people?” Bailey said to Abbott.

Pari attends Blacksburg High School and takes boxing lessons on the weekends. She hopes to follow her big sister into the military someday.

Traditional, pop-style, Afghan music boomed through the apartment as she and the young military women clapped their hands and danced around the room with their sisters and brothers.

Ahmadi held Amir, swaying back and forth as Gul made her way around the room in a Gucci shirt paired with a floral skirt and black pants. She stretched her arms in all directions and swirled around.

For a short while, Blacksburg seemed like the home they left behind. That home looks much different now, since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan and women who refuse to be oppressed protest changes made by the Taliban, such as banning girls from schools.

Seeking to serve again

Ahmadi hopes to get her green card so she can join the U.S. military. She applied for asylum and recently had interviews with immigration officials in Washington, D.C., about her status.

She said working with the members of her platoon were some of the best moments of her life and she is thankful and happy to be among fellow military members in Blacksburg.

“Always fear was there. We weren’t so sure that we would get back from each mission,” she said about her past military life. “But on the other hand, I was so happy and proud of myself to do these missions to rescue women who were in danger, or rescue people.”

Ahmadi plans to go to college with The Secular Society’s financial support. Even though she already had an undergraduate degree and was working toward her master’s degree in criminology in Kabul, the process of transferring her degree and credits to the United States was so cumbersome, it was easier just to start college over.

“I am thinking about nursing now,” she said. “Different country, different language, different degree.”

For Gul, the dreams she shared with her husband to raise a family and have a home together linger.

Currently, she is focused on her son and learning English. She cradled Amir, standing in her living room and rocking him in her arms as he fell asleep.

“I would like to send Amir to school,” she said. “I would like to see his progress in the future. I want to see his brilliant future.”

Gul said she prays for her son to be healthy, kind and hard working. She prays for her mother and all people of Afghanistan to be well, and for the Taliban to no longer be in power.

Where her future lies, in the United States or Afghanistan, remains to be seen

Strong quake has people fleeing homes in Afghanistan, Pakistan


Issued on: 21/03/2023 - 

Residents of an apartment block in the Afghan capital gather outside their home after the quake © STR / AFP

Kabul (AFP) – A strong earthquake lasting for at least 30 seconds was felt across much of Afghanistan, Pakistan and parts of India Tuesday night, with the United States Geological Survey putting the magnitude at 6.5.

"It was a terrifying tremor. I had never felt such a tremor before in my life," Khatera, 50, a resident of Kabul, told AFP after rushing out of her fifth-storey apartment in the capital.

The USGS said the quake was centred near Jurm in northeastern Afghanistan and had a depth of 187 kilometers (116 miles).

The region is frequently hit by earthquakes -- especially in the Hindu Kush mountain range, which lies near the junction of the Eurasian and Indian tectonic plates.

Two people, including a child, were killed in Laghman province, Shafiullah Rahimi, spokesman for Afghanistan's Ministry of Natural Disaster Management, told AFP.

Government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said health centres across the country had been put on high alert.

Noor Mohammad Hanifi, a shopkeeper in Kabul, set up tents in a street for his family to spend the night in.

People gather by the side of the road after fleeing a high-rise building in Islamabad following the earthquake © Aamir QURESHI / AFP

"Nobody dares to go inside their homes," Hanifi told AFP as his family, cloaked in blankets, took shelter.

Hanafi said he felt dizzy when the quake hit as he had just returned from a long trip.

"But when I heard the doors and windows shaking I realised it was an earthquake."
'We all ran out'

In Pakistan, frightened people fled their homes as the tremor hit.

"People ran out of their houses and were reciting the Koran," said an AFP correspondent in Pakistan's city of Rawalpindi.

Ikhlaq Kazmi, a retired professor in the city, said his entire house started shaking.

"The children started shouting that there is an earthquake," he said. "We all ran out."

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif ordered the National Disaster Management Authority to be ready to deal with any emergency.

At least 180 people who suffered minor injuries were taken to hospitals across the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, Shahidullah Khan, a senior government official, told AFP.

Afghanistan © Sophie STUBER / AFP

In Afghanistan, many families were out of their homes celebrating Nowruz, the Persian New Year, when the quake struck.

"I heard people screaming and yelling as they came out in the streets," said Masieh, who was outside with his family when the tremor hit.

"It's possible that there could be another tremor so I'm still waiting outside."

Those indoors also quickly left their houses and apartments.

"They just fled without wearing shoes, just carrying their children in their hands," an AFP correspondent said.

In June of last year more than 1,000 people were killed and tens of thousands made homeless after a 5.9-magnitude quake -- the deadliest in Afghanistan in nearly a quarter of a century -- struck the impoverished province of Paktika.

Over 55,000 people were killed by an earthquake that struck southeastern Turkey and parts of Syria last month.

Afghanistan is in the grips of a humanitarian disaster made worse by the Taliban takeover of the country in August 2021.

International development funding on which the South Asian country relied dried up after the takeover and assets held abroad were frozen.

burs-jd-fox/dw

© 2023 AFP

After the deluge, how to build a green recovery in Pakistan

The need to rebuild from the 2022 floods presents Pakistan with an opportunity for a green recovery, starting with a rethink of how economic growth and well-being are measured.

Hashim Zaman Published February 3, 2023  

In our pursuit of narrowly defined economic growth, we are pushing the ecological balance beyond safe boundaries. This can have terrible consequences, as was revealed in Pakistan last year. A third of districts in the country are still dealing with the outcomes of the flooding, and 33 million people have been affected.

Between June and August 2022, Pakistan endured the worst floods in its 75-year history. A prolonged heatwave in the spring, accompanied by a drought and followed by a ‘monster monsoon’ ultimately morphed into the wettest August since 1961. A combination of glacial melt, warming of sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, La Niña, and poor management led to a disaster on a scale never experienced before.

Fields turned into inland lakes as Balochistan and Sindh provinces received 726% and 590% more rainfall than average, respectively. Around 75 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) were reported in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan region of northern Pakistan.

The most astonishing feature of Pakistan’s 2022 floods was their origin, having sprung from the Koh-e-Suleman mountain range, which ordinarily do not experience the South Asian monsoon. This is a worrying indicator of a geographical shift in the region’s monsoon patterns.

Measuring, and mismeasuring, loss and damage

Initial estimates of loss and damage resulting from the 2022 Pakistan floods stood at over USD 30 billion, distributed across infrastructure, agriculture and various cross-cutting sectors. Meanwhile the total needs assessment for recovery and reconstruction added a further USD 16.3 billion in estimated costs.

However, this analysis is misleading as it fails to reflect loss and damage beyond direct costs. The intangible reality — the non-economic losses and damages pertaining to our natural capital — along with the opportunity cost of unemployment, lost income and migration, remain largely ignored. Most importantly, the USD 30 billion estimate is a serious undervaluation, and does not account for the damage done to natural ecosystems, and their contributions to well-being and economic activity. These include pollination, carbon sequestration, and climate regulation, all of which have been disrupted by the floods.

Since we do not ‘pay’ nature for these services, they are often overlooked in economic calculations. Globally, these ecosystem services are worth an estimated USD 125-140 trillion annually, more than one-and-a-half times the size of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). And yet they rarely figure in the economic calculations that dominate our planning processes.

GDP is an outdated metric that ignores the health of ecosystems and the critical role of ecosystem services

If not managed properly, by 2050 Pakistan’s annual GDP could decline by an estimated 18-20% as a result of climate risks and environmental degradation. And yet this is again a limited way of approaching the challenge. Correlating climate risks, losses and damages with GDP is misplaced. GDP is an outdated metric of measuring growth, as it fails to account for the inclusive wealth of a nation. In particular, it ignores the health of ecosystems, and the critical role of ecosystem services in supporting human and economic well-being. This limits its ability to track and assess human well-being, and relying on GDP results in misguided growth and development pathways.

In a post-disaster scenario, the case for moving beyond GDP becomes even stronger. Rehabilitation efforts such as rebuilding houses, bridges and roads inflate GDP growth rate in the short term. GDP counts only what is built, not what was lost. This creates an illusion of prosperity. However, in real terms the nation may be much worse off, as the land degradation, deteriorating water quality and biodiversity loss resulting from a disaster can result in a lower contribution to the economy from nature. A decline in the healthy functioning of ecosystems and society results in lower productivity, while leaving all species on Earth more vulnerable to future climate shocks.

New metrics can help a green recovery

Without transformative change in how economic growth and well-being are measured, Pakistan risks blinding itself to the fact that it is growing ever poorer and more vulnerable to future shocks from climate change, recessions and pandemics. Indices such as the Gross Ecosystem Product and the Living Standards Framework, being piloted in China and New Zealand respectively, have shown great promise in tracking and enhancing happiness and well-being across all demographics. This could be explored in the context of Pakistan.

The suffering caused by the 2022 floods brought Pakistan’s climate vulnerability to global attention. At a conference in Geneva in early January, the international community pledged over USD 9 billion to help Pakistan’s flood recovery, in line with the Resilient Recovery, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Framework. As harmonious as this may seem, almost 90% of these commitments are reportedly multilateral aid in the form of loans, which will be rolled out over the next three years. Pakistan already has a huge debt burden, which includes USD 23 billion of external debt repayments due and a USD 10 billion current account deficit forecast for the 2023 fiscal year. Accumulating more debt is far from ideal.

In this scenario, reshaping these funds into debt-for-nature swaps can be explored, where a portion of the debt is cancelled or reduced by the creditor in exchange for the debtor investing in nature. Similarly, nature performance bonds can be leveraged. This is a type of performance-based debt instrument, where the debt is pegged against measurable targets and nature-based outcomes such as ecosystem restoration. These tools accelerate access to climate finance while tackling the growing sovereign debt crisis, and can enable developing states like Pakistan to achieve green growth and enhance biodiversity.

The recent colossal floods, followed by health, energy and economic crises, have left Pakistan in a predicament. But they have also presented it with the opportunity for a green recovery. This is a chance to recharge the country’s aquifers, enhance its stock of natural capital and leapfrog towards a green economy. In this age of adaptation, investing in green infrastructure and nature-based solutions such as inclusive early warning systems and ecosystem restoration can enable green growth, and create a nature-positive, megadiverse and climate-resilient Pakistan.

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This article was originally published on The Third Pole