AMS science preview: global heat record false? Rainier storms

Early online research from journals of the American Meteorological Society

American Meteorological Society

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The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access–they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form. Below are some recent examples of online and early-online research.

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JOURNAL ARTICLES

Observed Trends in Extreme Precipitation and Convective Intensity Under Global Warming
Journal of Climate

Intense rainfall events are occurring more frequently worldwide. While global warming is known to affect the intensity of the water cycle overall, we have less of a sense of how individual rainfall events are changing. This study of satellite observations shows that heavy rainfall events have increased in frequency since 1987, while moderate rainfall events have decreased in frequency, leading to a modest increase overall in the intensity of the average precipitation event.

Death Valley Illusion: Evidence Against the 134 °F World Record
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

World-record hot temperature may have been incorrectly measured. Researchers using historical records from nearby stations have calculated that the world record hottest near-surface air temperature of 134°F, recorded at Greenland Ranch, Death Valley, California on 10 July 1913, was likely inaccurate. They suggest that the true temperature was probably 14°F cooler than reported on that date.

The Role of the Weather in the Fate of Shackleton’s Endurance
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Famous Antarctic near-disaster was precipitated by a highly anomalous winter. The ice-bound 1914-15 demise of the ship Endurance during Shackleton’s Imperial Trans-Antarctic Expedition led to a famous feat of survival by its crew—yet in a different year, the Endurance might not have been trapped at all. Weather and climate records suggest that the expedition sailed into one of the most extensive years of ice coverage and persistent near-record cold temperatures in the early 20th century, with anomalous high pressure delaying ice breakup the following spring.

Future Impacts of Climate Change on Global Fire Weather: Insight from Weighted CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensembles
Journal of Climate

Fire weather is likely to expand and intensify this century. Using a new technique to reduce bias and uncertainty when deploying multiple Earth System models, researchers predict an overall increase both in magnitude and geographical expansion in the weather conditions enabling the ignition and spread of fires by the end of the century. At least 55% of fire-prone areas are expected to see a significant increase in fire weather conditions by 2040.

GOES-Based Trends in Blowing Dust Initiation Across Southwestern North America, 2001–2020
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Identifying dust cloud hotspots. Researchers used high-resolution imagery from NOAA’s GOES satellites to identify airborne dust plumes and their origin points in the southwestern U.S. Analysis reveals a strong springtime peak in activity, regional hotspots such as northern Chihuahua, west Texas, and northwest Nevada, and elevated plume frequencies during major drought periods like 2002–2003 and 2011–2012.

Impact of Cold Wakes on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall under Global Warming
Journal of Climate

“Cold wakes” may increasingly dampen tropical cyclone rainfall. Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation was initially predicted to increase with global warming. However, recent evidence suggests precipitation is decreasing within the active inner cores of TCs. This study examines cold wakes — sea-surface cooling following the passage of a cyclone — and finds that they appear to intensify with global warming. Their influence may partially explain the decrease in precipitation.

Investigation of Weather-related Aviation Accidents in Hawai‘i from 2003–2022
Weather and Forecasting

Subtle wind shifts — not severe weather — are the leading cause of fatal air accidents in Hawai‘i. Observations and machine learning simulations suggest that most weather-related aviation accidents in Hawai‘i take place during trade wind conditions and occur on O‘ahu, Moloka‘i, and Maui. The largest number of fatal accidents occur on trade wind days when a shearline is present. “This suggests that the most hazardous days for aviation in Hawai‘i are not necessarily those with the most severe weather, but those that subtly deviate from the familiar trade wind regime — conditions that can be easily overlooked,” say the authors.

You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.

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About the American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.

About AMS Journals

The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Weather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.

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Journal

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Wildfires can raise local death rate by 67%, shows study on 2023 Hawaiʻi fires

Scientists studying the devastating Lāhainā, Maui fires of August 2023 found that deaths were two-thirds higher than expected that month — and 367% higher during the most intense week of the blaze

Frontiers

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New research unveils the true death toll of the deadly August 2023 wildfires which took place in Lāhainā, Maui, Hawaiʻi — and which temporarily made wildfire a leading cause of death in Maui. By comparing death rates over time, the scientists found that two-thirds more people died that August than would have been expected. To stop this happening again, the authors say, major policy changes are needed, ranging from removing flammable invasive vegetation to improving disaster preparedness.  

“Wildfires can cause a measurable, population-wide increase in mortality, beyond what is captured in official fatality counts,” said Michelle Nakatsuka of the Grossman School of Medicine, co-first author of the article in Frontiers in Climate. “This suggests the true toll of the Lāhainā wildfire was even broader than previously understood.”  

“It also points to the need for prevention strategies that go beyond reactive wildfire control,” added Nakatsuka. “As Native Hawaiians, the co-first authors are especially hopeful that wildfire mitigation strategies will center kānaka maoli perspectives, including the restoration of traditional agroecological systems.” 

Fire risk  

As the climate crisis makes wildfires more common and destructive, understanding the full extent of their impact is critical to mitigating it. To capture the wide range of possible deaths attributable to the fires, the authors calculated the all-cause excess death rate: this is how many more deaths took place over a given period than would have been expected. They trained a model on demographic data from Maui County from August 2018 to July 2023 and weighted the analysis to exclude deaths caused by Covid-19.  

“Wildfires can cause death in a variety of ways,” said Dr Kekoa Taparra of UCLA, co-first author. “In this case, recent reports suggest many deaths were due to direct exposure, smoke inhalation and burns. Others likely stemmed from disruptions in healthcare, like not being able to access critical medications or emergency treatment. Wildfires can also exacerbate pre-existing conditions.” 

The researchers found that in August 2023, 82 more deaths were reported than expected: an excess death rate of 67%. In the week of 19 August, the rate was 367% higher than expected compared to previous years. 80% of these deaths didn’t take place in a medical context, 12% higher than in other months, suggesting some people never reached medical care because of the fires. At the same time, the proportion of deaths with a non-medical cause rose from 68% to 80%.  

This differs slightly from the official fatality count of 102, although it’s very close to the 88 fire-related deaths reported in August 2023 by the CDC.  

“We think this might reflect a temporary drop in other causes of death, like car accidents, during the fire period, similar to what we saw during Covid-19, when deaths from some non-Covid causes dropped during lockdowns,” said Nakatsuka. “It's also possible that some deaths occurred after the August time window we studied, for example from missed treatments or worsening of chronic conditions.” 

The scientists point out that there are some limitations to this analysis. For instance, the data is not geographically granular enough to identify whether the death toll was particularly high in Lāhainā itself.  

“Our study only covers a short time window, so we can’t speak to longer-term mortality impacts,” explained Nakatsuka. “Excess mortality models also can’t determine exact causes of death, and we didn’t have access to detailed death certificate data like toxicology reports or autopsy findings. Still, we believe this type of analysis offers important insights into the broader health impacts of disasters like the Lāhainā fire.” 

Planting the future 

To protect Hawaiʻi from similar tragedies in the future, the researchers call for improved disaster preparedness and investment in the restoration of Native Hawaiian plants and agroecological systems, which reduce the likelihood of destructive wildfires compared to modern monocultures and invasive plant species.  

“In the short term, it’s critical for people exposed to wildfires to get immediate medical treatment,” said Nakatsuka. “Fast, accessible emergency care can save lives.” 

“In the long term, we’d like to see more policy investment in wildfire prevention rooted in Native Hawaiian ecological knowledge,” said Taparra. “This includes restoring traditional agroecological systems, removing dry, non-native grasses, restoring traditional pre-colonial water systems, and improving fire risk modeling to better guide preparedness efforts.” 

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Journal

Frontiers in Climate

DOI

10.3389/fclim.2025.1611198 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

All-cause excess mortality associated with the Lāhainā, Maui fires

Article Publication Date

22-Aug-2025

More people, especially those in Africa, are being exposed to wildfires

Summary author: Becky Ham

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

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The population directly exposed to wildland fires increased by 40% globally from 2002 to 2021, according to a new study by Seyd Teymoor Seydi and colleagues. This increase occurred even as there was a 26% decrease in burned area during the same period. The increase was mainly driven by more people living in the wildland-urban interface – in other words, people moving into the areas where wildland fires occur. What’s more, 85% of global wildland fire exposures between 2002 and 2021 occurred in Africa, where fires do not usually reach catastrophic levels, although wildfire disasters in North America, Europe, and Oceania have garnered much more attention. Wildland fires from 1990 to 2021 are responsible for at least 2,500 deaths and 10,500 injuries, and 1.53 million deaths globally can be attributed to wildfire-induced air pollution. To quantify where direct exposure is happening, Seydi et al. looked at 18.6 million fire records from the Global Fire Atlas, along with population data and land cover and use data. In regions where fires spread rapidly, such as western North America and Australia, it is important to use “home hardening” structural and landscaping practices to enhance fire resistance, and “there is also a need for increased intentional fire use as a vegetation management tool to mitigate wildfire disasters,” the authors write.

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Journal

Science

DOI

10.1126/science.adu6408 

Article Title

Increasing global human exposure to wildland fires despite declining burned area

Article Publication Date

21-Aug-2025

 

New study links 2023 Maui wildfire to spike in suicide, overdose

University of Hawaii at Manoa

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Link to video and sound (details below): https://spaces.hightail.com/receive/YDQA0P5cJ7

Deaths by suicide and drug overdose significantly increased in the aftermath of the August 2023 Maui wildfire, according to a new study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).

The study, led by Alex Ortega, dean of the Thompson School of Social Work and Public Health, and Keawe‘aimoku Kaholokula, chair of the Department of Native Hawaiian Health, in the John A. Burns School of Medicine, both at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, along with Jonathan Purtle, associate professor at New York University’s School of Global Public Health, is one of the first to show that wildfires can lead to immediate deaths from suicide and drug overdose. 

"Nationally and globally, we have seen an increase in devastating wildfires, and these fires can have a tremendous impact on the health and well-being of communities,” said Ortega. “Public health must be adequately prepared to respond to serious mental health consequences of wildfires and other climate-related disasters that are increasing in both frequency and severity." 

Death rates increased statewide

The researchers analyzed death records from all of Hawai‘i’s counties from 2014 through 2023, focusing on suicides and drug overdoses. They compared the death rates before, during and after the wildfires.

The study showed that in August 2023, suicide and overdose death rates increased by 46% statewide. However, the impact was much greater in Maui, where there was a 97% increase in suicide and overdose deaths compared to prior months. When limiting their analysis to just suicides in August 2023, they found that the suicide rate was 182% higher in Maui than other islands in the state.

“Prior research has found similar effects in the months after wildfires and other disasters. But the immediacy of the effects on suicide rates that we observed in Maui are unique and troubling,” said Purtle.

Researchers suggest that both direct exposure to the wildfires and indirect effects, such as concern for loved ones, may have contributed to the rise in death rates. The findings also show that residents who fled Maui for other islands could have contributed to the increase in state-wide suicide and overdose deaths.

In an earlier study led by the UH researchers, the team documented a 41% rise in 988 Lifeline calls after the Lahaina wildfires, exposing critical gaps in Hawaiʻi’s mental health infrastructure.

A call to action 

This recent study emphasized the importance of early behavioral health intervention during disaster responses and recommends including suicide and overdose prevention in wildfire response and recovery plans.

Kaholokula noted disaster recovery must address more than just rebuilding physical infrastructure. “Plans should also focus on the psychological and emotional impacts communities face—including hopelessness, cultural disconnection and stigma,” he said. “There needs to be a plan for suicide and substance abuse prevention, and other mental health support.”

The study used the most recent death data available from the CDC. Researchers will use 2024  data when it becomes available to see if there is was an increase in suicides and/or overdoses over the course of 2024, as more time elapsed since the wildfires. 

This study is part of the NIH-funded Maui LOA (Learnings to Overcome Adversities) project, a five-year effort led by UH researchers to understand how disasters like the Lahaina wildfires affect community, healthcare, and emergency response system resiliency. The research focuses on vulnerable populations and aims to strengthen health system resilience and improve access to care.
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Link to soundbites (details below): 
https://spaces.hightail.com/receive/YDQA0P5cJ7

SOUNDBITES:

Alex Ortega, UH Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health Dean

(18 seconds)
This is really a call for increasing mental health services capacity in Hawaiʻi in general, but more specifically in Maui, because even a year after the wildfire or two years after now, we're still seeing devastating mental health impacts as a result of the wildfire.

Keawe‘aimoku Kaholokula, JABSOM Dept. of Native Hawaiian Health Chair

(19 seconds)
“It’s a significant event that takes a significant toll on our communities emotionally, physically, financially, and we do need to better understand and learn from these experiences so we can do a better job of mitigating these impacts in the future through policies and practices.”

Jonathan Purtle, New York University Public Health Associate Professor

(14 seconds)
“What we found was that the highest suicide and overdose death rate in that 10 year period occurred in Maui and also in other Hawaiian islands. It was the highest in the same month as the wildfires in August of 2023.”

______________________

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Journal

Journal of the American Medical Association

DOI

10.1001/jama.2025.11146 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Increases in Suicides and Overdoses During the 2023 Wildfires in Maui, Hawaiʻi

Article Publication Date

6-Aug-2025

The Health Impact of Wildfires in Los Angeles County and Maui

JAMA and JAMA Network Open

About The Studies:

 JAMA and JAMA Network Open are publishing studies examining the health impact of wildfires in Los Angeles County in January 2025 and in Maui in August 2023. Among the findings:

Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires

While there were only 30 direct fatalities from the Los Angeles wildfires, this study estimates that 440 deaths from January 5 to February 1, 2025, were attributable to the wildfires. These additional deaths likely reflect a combination of factors, including increased exposure to poor air quality and health care delays and interruptions.

Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Andrew C. Stokes, PhD, email acstokes@bu.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

Embed this link to provide your readers free access to the full-text article This link will be live at the embargo time

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/10.1001/jama.2025.10556?guestAccessKey=2af4fee4-50e8-43f8-aaab-50bd466ba444&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=080625

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Increases in Suicides and Overdoses During the 2023 Wildfires in Maui

The results of this study show that the 2023 Maui wildfires had immediate effects on suicide and overdose deaths in Maui and across the Hawaiian Islands broadly. The latter finding suggests that direct exposure to the wildfires may have increased risk of suicide and overdose death among Maui residents who migrated to neighboring islands during or after the fires.

Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Jonathan Purtle, DrPH, email jonathan.purtle@NYU.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

Embed this link to provide your readers free access to the full-text article This link will be live at the embargo time https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/10.1001/jama.2025.11146?guestAccessKey=966bacf0-8a0e-476c-9dbd-435bb26aef41&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=080625

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Health and Social Support in the Aftermath of the Maui Wildfires

In this cohort study of adults affected by the Maui wildfires, substantial midterm cardiopulmonary and psychological health burdens were observed. Higher social support was associated with improved mental health outcomes but did not appear to buffer physiological outcomes such as reduced lung function. These findings highlight the need for disaster response models that integrate clinical surveillance, targeted mental health interventions, and culturally anchored community-based support. As climate-driven disasters intensify, proactive strategies to monitor and mitigate their long-term health effects will be essential to protect vulnerable populations and enhance resilience.

Corresponding Author: To contact the corresponding author, Ruben Juarez, PhD, email rubenj@hawaii.edu.

To access the embargoed study: Visit our For The Media website at this link https://media.jamanetwork.com/

Embed this link to provide your readers free access to the full-text article This link will be live at the embargo time http://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2025.25430?utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_term=080625

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Editor’s Note: Please see the articles for additional information, including other authors, author contributions and affiliations, conflict of interest and financial disclosures, and funding and support.

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Journal

JAMA

US military's attempt to retain strategic land for training runs into Native Hawaiian opposition

AUDREY McAVOY
Thu, July 3, 2025 

AP


In this photo released by the U.S. Army, soldiers conduct a convoy escort team during Operation PIKO, the 25th Division Sustainment Brigade's annual gunnery Feb. 5, 2025, at Pohakuloa Training Area, Hawaii. (Sgt. Jared Simmons, U.S. Army via AP)More

HONOLULU (AP) — A high-altitude plateau on the Big Island is the only place in Hawaii where thousands of ground forces can practice firing live munitions. It's also a place many Native Hawaiians consider the spiritual heart of the island.

The U.S. military wants to keep training at this spot, called Pohakuloa, so it's ready to quickly send troops to Asia and the Pacific. Its importance to the U.S. is only growing as China becomes more assertive, particularly regarding Taiwan.

But the Army's lease for state lands beneath a key part of the training range expires in 2029. Native Hawaiians upset with the U.S. military’s history of damaging Hawaiian lands with target practice and fuel leaks want the Army out.

“They have bombed and contaminated not just our land but our waters,” said Healani Sonoda-Pale, a community organizer with the Hawaiian sovereignty group Ka Lahui Hawaii. “When does this end?”

A problematic history

The military controls about 5% of Hawaii's land, including bases for all branches. It has programs and staff to protect endangered and threatened species, prevent fires, and plant native plants.

But past incidents have made many Native Hawaiians skeptical.

The Navy turned the island of Kahoolawe, off Maui, into a bombing range after the 1941 attack on Pearl Harbor. The Navy returned it in 1994 after years of protests. But subsequent cleanup efforts have been incomplete. Live grenades and bombs remain scattered across a quarter of the island.

Memories are still fresh from when the Navy spilled jet fuel into Pearl Harbor’s drinking water from a network of underground fuel storage tanks and pipes in 2021. The leak prompted 6,000 people to seek medical care for rashes, nausea and other ailments and contaminated a Honolulu aquifer. The disaster occurred after admirals spent years dismissing community calls to move the tanks. On Tuesday, Honolulu's water utility sued the Navy seeking to recoup an estimated $1.2 billion that it has had to spend because of the spill.

Also on Oahu, environmental advocates say Army live-fire training in Makua Valley sparked wildfires and destroyed native forestland and sacred cultural sites. A legal settlement stopped such training in 2004.

The cultural significance of Pohakuloa

Pohakuloa consists of rocky plains, hills and brush about 6,200 feet (1,900 meters) above sea level between the Big Island’s tallest volcanoes, Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa. It hosts endangered species including the Hawaiian catchfly shrub.

Early Hawaiians ventured across the plateau to reach a Mauna Kea quarry that produced high-quality basalt for stone tools and to travel between coastal towns.

In 2022, Army staff discovered ancient wooden “kii,” or figures, in a lava tube, an underground passageway created by molten rock. Consultants said the figures are from human burials, and state preservationists say they're among Hawaii's most significant archaeological finds.

Pohakuloa Training Area spans more than 200 square miles (518 square kilometers). The section in question is only 17% of that total, but it’s critically located in between two larger federal parcels. Troops fire munitions from the state-owned parcel onto federal lands.

The land's importance for training and deterrence

Other live-fire training areas in Hawaii are too small to accommodate battalions and brigades.

Commanders say it would take too long to send troops, trucks and helicopters to the U.S. mainland for drills.

“What we anticipate in a future fight is that we will not have the time to recover that equipment and to position ourselves back into the region,” said Maj. Gen. James Bartholomees, U.S. Army Pacific chief of staff.

Pohakuloa training, he said, allows troops to "move from Hawaii into the Indo-Pacific, into key terrain, to be prepared to meet our adversaries, or more importantly, to deter them.”

The Marine Corps, Navy and Air Force exercise there, as do allied and partner militaries. The Hawaii National Guard accounts for one-quarter of Pohakuloa's training. County fire and police departments use it too.

Negotiations to exchange land

The Army prepared an environmental impact statement, including public feedback, that analyzed how the military's continued use of the land would affect plants, animals and cultural heritage.

On May 9, the state land board rejected it after hearing hours of often emotional testimony in opposition. Among other issues, the board cited inadequate inventory of unexploded ordnance and insufficient inventory of ancient burials and associated artifacts.

The Army is considering whether to appeal. It could also negotiate a land exchange with the state instead.

Such talks can't begin until the Army finalizes its environmental study with a decision about its plans. The defense secretary's office then must sign off on acquiring land.

Alice Roberts, U.S. Army Pacific's program manager for training land retention, said the service has had some informal conversations, including trying to understand the state's swap criteria.

Buying the land would be a “a big hurdle,” for the Army, she said, because two-thirds of the state House and Senate would need to approve such a transaction.

U.S. Rep. Jill Tokuda, a Democrat, said the Army must double down on being good stewards and make up for the military's past mistakes.

Tokuda wants the military to help increase Hawaii’s housing supply, given that service members occupy 14% of Oahu’s housing stock and that high housing costs are driving residents out. She said it could bolster Hawaii's water and sewer infrastructure.

Hawaii Gov. Josh Green suggested in an interview with Hawaii News Now that the military could take the land through eminent domain, but Tokuda said she hasn't heard anyone in the military or President Donald Trump's administration mention that.

A call for a cleanup

Kaialiʻi Kahele, the chairperson of the Office of Hawaiian Affairs, which advocates for Native Hawaiians, wants to see what federal lands the Army would offer. He wants to know whether it would be willing to reduce the impact of its training, and what sort of clean up and community benefits it would provide.

“We have to get to a point where you do training and then you clean up your mess,” said Kahele, a former congressman who served more than 20 years in the Hawaii Air National Guard and is now in the Air Force Reserve.