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Saturday, April 18, 2026

Extreme Weather Is Sending Home Insurance Rates Through the Roof; Big Oil Should Pay

We and a growing number of lawmakers are proposing legislation to ensure that the companies that helped drive the climate crisis help pay their fair share of the ensuing damage.


Flames from the Palisades Fire burn homes on January 7, 2025 in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood of Los Angeles, California.
(Photo by Eric Thayer/Getty Images)

Scott Wiener
Brian Kavanagh
Apr 18, 2026
Common Dreams

It’s not just your rising bills for groceries and healthcare. For many Americans, the affordability crisis is now showing up in skyrocketing costs to keep their homes insured, as communities are battered by worsening weather disasters fueled by climate change.

Our states and our constituents are feeling this directly. Hawai’i is picking up the pieces after several weeks of historic flooding, which caused more than $1 billion in damage and led to widespread evacuations. These costs are sure to increase home insurance rates that have already spiked by as much as 50% since August 2023, when out of control wildfires—worsened by climate change-driven drought conditions—devastated Maui.


Thanks to Trump’s Iran War, Over $100 Billion Has Been ‘Siphoned From Ordinary People’ to Big Oil


Urgent Warning to Congressional Leaders: Trump is Psychologically Unstable and Dangerous

In California, communities are still trying to recover from wildfires that tore through Los Angeles in January 2025. These fires stand as the most expensive wildfires in world history—causing more than $65 billion in damage, much of which is being passed onto the public through rising insurance premiums.

Although New York’s insurance market is not yet seeing the levels of climate-driven distress seen in other parts of the country, the average homeowner is paying $1,000 more for coverage in the years since Hurricane Ida—supercharged by warming oceans—caused over $9 billion in flooding damage. And the frequency of highly destructive storms is growing fast.

If a power company is responsible for the spark that ignites a fire, why not the fossil fuel giants that are turning much of the country into a tinderbox?

The average American homeowner isn’t responsible for this climate chaos; why are they the ones picking up the tab for the billions of dollars of damage it leaves in its wake? We and a growing number of lawmakers are proposing a better model: ensuring that the companies that helped drive this crisis help pay their fair share of the ensuing damage.

Large multinational oil and gas giants knew as far back as the 1970s that their dirty fossil fuel products would make weather disasters more destructive, but spent the ensuing decades lying to the public about their contribution to the problem. The real world harms of their deception is becoming increasingly clear, but they’re paying nearly none of the financial consequences.

That’s why we’re working to build a fairer system in our states—one that could be a model for the rest of the country. One that protects people from perpetually rising home insurance premiums by holding Big Oil accountable for their contribution to weather disasters that are a core driver of the affordability crisis in this country.

Our legislation would empower state attorneys general to bring civil actions against the largest oil and gas companies after major climate-driven disasters. Revenue recovered through legal action would be used to reimburse people dealing with higher rates, stabilize “insurer of last resort” programs, and reimburse homeowners facing rising premiums. At a time when housing affordability is already under strain, the growing instability in home insurance markets is making it even harder for families to buy, keep, and protect their homes.

The stakes couldn’t be higher—for individuals, not to mention the broader American housing market. Uninsurable properties are often unsellable properties, as mortgage lenders generally require that home buyers secure insurance.

Last year, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the US Senate Banking Committee that in “10 or 15 years there are going to be regions of the country where you can’t get a mortgage” due to climate change. That ominous prediction seems overly conservative given that realtors in California and Colorado are already reporting pending home sales falling through due to climate risk.

Even as extreme weather becomes more common, more and more Americans are risking financial ruin and going without a safety net altogether. A recent poll in California found that a shocking 1 in 5 California homeowners don’t have insurance, with rising costs the most often cited reason.

Holding polluters accountable for their contribution to a weather disaster isn’t a radical idea. Insurance companies already routinely take utilities to court—and win large settlements—when unmaintained power lines ignite wildfires. If a power company is responsible for the spark that ignites a fire, why not the fossil fuel giants that are turning much of the country into a tinderbox?

The status quo of worsening disasters, perpetual insurance premium increases, and more uninsured families is clearly untenable. But it’s likely to persist until Big Oil companies pay their fair share for the weather chaos they knowingly brought about. It’s time for the fossil fuel giants driving the home insurance crisis to shoulder the growing financial burden, not everyday Americans.


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Scott Wiener
Sen. Scott Wiener represents San Francisco and northern San Mateo County in the California State Senate.
Full Bio >
Jarrett Keohokalole
Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole is a member of the Hawaii State Senate, representing District 24.
Full Bio >
Brian Kavanagh
Sen. Brian Kavanagh represents more than 330,000 residents in New York’s Senate District 27, covering neighborhoods across lower Manhattan from the Battery to 14th Street, including Battery Park City, Tribeca, Financial District, Chinatown, Little Italy, the Lower East Side, SoHo, NoHo, Greenwich Village, South Village, Two Bridges, and the East Village.
Full Bio >

Thursday, October 09, 2025

 

AMS science preview: global heat record false? Rainier storms



Early online research from journals of the American Meteorological Society



American Meteorological Society





The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Many of these articles are available for early online access–they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form. Below are some recent examples of online and early-online research.


JOURNAL ARTICLES

Observed Trends in Extreme Precipitation and Convective Intensity Under Global Warming
Journal of Climate

Intense rainfall events are occurring more frequently worldwide. While global warming is known to affect the intensity of the water cycle overall, we have less of a sense of how individual rainfall events are changing. This study of satellite observations shows that heavy rainfall events have increased in frequency since 1987, while moderate rainfall events have decreased in frequency, leading to a modest increase overall in the intensity of the average precipitation event.

Death Valley Illusion: Evidence Against the 134 °F World Record
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

World-record hot temperature may have been incorrectly measured. Researchers using historical records from nearby stations have calculated that the world record hottest near-surface air temperature of 134°F, recorded at Greenland Ranch, Death Valley, California on 10 July 1913, was likely inaccurate. They suggest that the true temperature was probably 14°F cooler than reported on that date.

The Role of the Weather in the Fate of Shackleton’s Endurance
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

Famous Antarctic near-disaster was precipitated by a highly anomalous winter. The ice-bound 1914-15 demise of the ship Endurance during Shackleton’s Imperial Trans-Antarctic Expedition led to a famous feat of survival by its crew—yet in a different year, the Endurance might not have been trapped at all. Weather and climate records suggest that the expedition sailed into one of the most extensive years of ice coverage and persistent near-record cold temperatures in the early 20th century, with anomalous high pressure delaying ice breakup the following spring.

Future Impacts of Climate Change on Global Fire Weather: Insight from Weighted CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensembles
Journal of Climate

Fire weather is likely to expand and intensify this century. Using a new technique to reduce bias and uncertainty when deploying multiple Earth System models, researchers predict an overall increase both in magnitude and geographical expansion in the weather conditions enabling the ignition and spread of fires by the end of the century. At least 55% of fire-prone areas are expected to see a significant increase in fire weather conditions by 2040.

GOES-Based Trends in Blowing Dust Initiation Across Southwestern North America, 2001–2020
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology

Identifying dust cloud hotspots. Researchers used high-resolution imagery from NOAA’s GOES satellites to identify airborne dust plumes and their origin points in the southwestern U.S. Analysis reveals a strong springtime peak in activity, regional hotspots such as northern Chihuahua, west Texas, and northwest Nevada, and elevated plume frequencies during major drought periods like 2002–2003 and 2011–2012.

Impact of Cold Wakes on Tropical Cyclone Rainfall under Global Warming
Journal of Climate

“Cold wakes” may increasingly dampen tropical cyclone rainfall. Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation was initially predicted to increase with global warming. However, recent evidence suggests precipitation is decreasing within the active inner cores of TCs. This study examines cold wakes — sea-surface cooling following the passage of a cyclone — and finds that they appear to intensify with global warming. Their influence may partially explain the decrease in precipitation.

Investigation of Weather-related Aviation Accidents in Hawai‘i from 2003–2022
Weather and Forecasting

Subtle wind shifts — not severe weather — are the leading cause of fatal air accidents in Hawai‘i. Observations and machine learning simulations suggest that most weather-related aviation accidents in Hawai‘i take place during trade wind conditions and occur on O‘ahu, Moloka‘i, and Maui. The largest number of fatal accidents occur on trade wind days when a shearline is present. “This suggests that the most hazardous days for aviation in Hawai‘i are not necessarily those with the most severe weather, but those that subtly deviate from the familiar trade wind regime — conditions that can be easily overlooked,” say the authors.

You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org.


About the American Meteorological Society

The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/.

About AMS Journals

The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals. Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyWeather, Climate, and Society, the Journal of Climate, and Monthly Weather Review.

Friday, August 22, 2025

Wildfires can raise local death rate by 67%, shows study on 2023 Hawaiʻi fires



Scientists studying the devastating Lāhainā, Maui fires of August 2023 found that deaths were two-thirds higher than expected that month — and 367% higher during the most intense week of the blaze




Frontiers






New research unveils the true death toll of the deadly August 2023 wildfires which took place in Lāhainā, Maui, Hawaiʻi — and which temporarily made wildfire a leading cause of death in Maui. By comparing death rates over time, the scientists found that two-thirds more people died that August than would have been expected. To stop this happening again, the authors say, major policy changes are needed, ranging from removing flammable invasive vegetation to improving disaster preparedness.  

“Wildfires can cause a measurable, population-wide increase in mortality, beyond what is captured in official fatality counts,” said Michelle Nakatsuka of the Grossman School of Medicine, co-first author of the article in Frontiers in Climate. “This suggests the true toll of the Lāhainā wildfire was even broader than previously understood.”  

“It also points to the need for prevention strategies that go beyond reactive wildfire control,” added Nakatsuka. “As Native Hawaiians, the co-first authors are especially hopeful that wildfire mitigation strategies will center kānaka maoli perspectives, including the restoration of traditional agroecological systems.” 

Fire risk  

As the climate crisis makes wildfires more common and destructive, understanding the full extent of their impact is critical to mitigating it. To capture the wide range of possible deaths attributable to the fires, the authors calculated the all-cause excess death rate: this is how many more deaths took place over a given period than would have been expected. They trained a model on demographic data from Maui County from August 2018 to July 2023 and weighted the analysis to exclude deaths caused by Covid-19.  

“Wildfires can cause death in a variety of ways,” said Dr Kekoa Taparra of UCLA, co-first author. “In this case, recent reports suggest many deaths were due to direct exposure, smoke inhalation and burns. Others likely stemmed from disruptions in healthcare, like not being able to access critical medications or emergency treatment. Wildfires can also exacerbate pre-existing conditions.” 

The researchers found that in August 2023, 82 more deaths were reported than expected: an excess death rate of 67%. In the week of 19 August, the rate was 367% higher than expected compared to previous years. 80% of these deaths didn’t take place in a medical context, 12% higher than in other months, suggesting some people never reached medical care because of the fires. At the same time, the proportion of deaths with a non-medical cause rose from 68% to 80%.  

This differs slightly from the official fatality count of 102, although it’s very close to the 88 fire-related deaths reported in August 2023 by the CDC.  

“We think this might reflect a temporary drop in other causes of death, like car accidents, during the fire period, similar to what we saw during Covid-19, when deaths from some non-Covid causes dropped during lockdowns,” said Nakatsuka. “It's also possible that some deaths occurred after the August time window we studied, for example from missed treatments or worsening of chronic conditions.” 

The scientists point out that there are some limitations to this analysis. For instance, the data is not geographically granular enough to identify whether the death toll was particularly high in Lāhainā itself.  

“Our study only covers a short time window, so we can’t speak to longer-term mortality impacts,” explained Nakatsuka. “Excess mortality models also can’t determine exact causes of death, and we didn’t have access to detailed death certificate data like toxicology reports or autopsy findings. Still, we believe this type of analysis offers important insights into the broader health impacts of disasters like the Lāhainā fire.” 

Planting the future 

To protect Hawaiʻi from similar tragedies in the future, the researchers call for improved disaster preparedness and investment in the restoration of Native Hawaiian plants and agroecological systems, which reduce the likelihood of destructive wildfires compared to modern monocultures and invasive plant species.  

“In the short term, it’s critical for people exposed to wildfires to get immediate medical treatment,” said Nakatsuka. “Fast, accessible emergency care can save lives.” 

“In the long term, we’d like to see more policy investment in wildfire prevention rooted in Native Hawaiian ecological knowledge,” said Taparra. “This includes restoring traditional agroecological systems, removing dry, non-native grasses, restoring traditional pre-colonial water systems, and improving fire risk modeling to better guide preparedness efforts.” 

Wednesday, August 06, 2025

 

New study links 2023 Maui wildfire to spike in suicide, overdose




University of Hawaii at Manoa






Link to video and sound (details below): https://spaces.hightail.com/receive/YDQA0P5cJ7

Deaths by suicide and drug overdose significantly increased in the aftermath of the August 2023 Maui wildfire, according to a new study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA).

The study, led by Alex Ortega, dean of the Thompson School of Social Work and Public Health, and Keawe‘aimoku Kaholokula, chair of the Department of Native Hawaiian Health, in the John A. Burns School of Medicine, both at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa, along with Jonathan Purtle, associate professor at New York University’s School of Global Public Health, is one of the first to show that wildfires can lead to immediate deaths from suicide and drug overdose. 

"Nationally and globally, we have seen an increase in devastating wildfires, and these fires can have a tremendous impact on the health and well-being of communities,” said Ortega. “Public health must be adequately prepared to respond to serious mental health consequences of wildfires and other climate-related disasters that are increasing in both frequency and severity." 

Death rates increased statewide

The researchers analyzed death records from all of Hawai‘i’s counties from 2014 through 2023, focusing on suicides and drug overdoses. They compared the death rates before, during and after the wildfires.

The study showed that in August 2023, suicide and overdose death rates increased by 46% statewide. However, the impact was much greater in Maui, where there was a 97% increase in suicide and overdose deaths compared to prior months. When limiting their analysis to just suicides in August 2023, they found that the suicide rate was 182% higher in Maui than other islands in the state.

“Prior research has found similar effects in the months after wildfires and other disasters. But the immediacy of the effects on suicide rates that we observed in Maui are unique and troubling,” said Purtle.

Researchers suggest that both direct exposure to the wildfires and indirect effects, such as concern for loved ones, may have contributed to the rise in death rates. The findings also show that residents who fled Maui for other islands could have contributed to the increase in state-wide suicide and overdose deaths.

In an earlier study led by the UH researchers, the team documented a 41% rise in 988 Lifeline calls after the Lahaina wildfires, exposing critical gaps in Hawaiʻi’s mental health infrastructure.

A call to action 

This recent study emphasized the importance of early behavioral health intervention during disaster responses and recommends including suicide and overdose prevention in wildfire response and recovery plans.

Kaholokula noted disaster recovery must address more than just rebuilding physical infrastructure. “Plans should also focus on the psychological and emotional impacts communities face—including hopelessness, cultural disconnection and stigma,” he said. “There needs to be a plan for suicide and substance abuse prevention, and other mental health support.”

The study used the most recent death data available from the CDC. Researchers will use 2024  data when it becomes available to see if there is was an increase in suicides and/or overdoses over the course of 2024, as more time elapsed since the wildfires. 

This study is part of the NIH-funded Maui LOA (Learnings to Overcome Adversities) project, a five-year effort led by UH researchers to understand how disasters like the Lahaina wildfires affect community, healthcare, and emergency response system resiliency. The research focuses on vulnerable populations and aims to strengthen health system resilience and improve access to care.
____________

Link to soundbites (details below): 
https://spaces.hightail.com/receive/YDQA0P5cJ7

SOUNDBITES:

Alex Ortega, UH Thompson School of Social Work & Public Health Dean

(18 seconds)
This is really a call for increasing mental health services capacity in Hawaiʻi in general, but more specifically in Maui, because even a year after the wildfire or two years after now, we're still seeing devastating mental health impacts as a result of the wildfire.

Keawe‘aimoku Kaholokula, JABSOM Dept. of Native Hawaiian Health Chair

(19 seconds)
“It’s a significant event that takes a significant toll on our communities emotionally, physically, financially, and we do need to better understand and learn from these experiences so we can do a better job of mitigating these impacts in the future through policies and practices.”

Jonathan Purtle, New York University Public Health Associate Professor

(14 seconds)
“What we found was that the highest suicide and overdose death rate in that 10 year period occurred in Maui and also in other Hawaiian islands. It was the highest in the same month as the wildfires in August of 2023.”

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