Back To The Fifties

Deflation in Canada in the late 1950's led the Bank of Canada to create the floating Dollar. Now it's sinking.

Biggest inflation rate fall since 1959 raises deflation concerns
Economists fear deflation because consumers and businesses are more likely to delay purchases hoping that prices will fall further, slowing economic activity and business investments.
But more importantly, CIBC World Markets economist Avery Shenfeld said deflation often appears as the final nail in the coffin of a dying economy.
"Typically the only way you get deflation is if you've had a massive recession that has high unemployment rates and a lot of economic slack, so the conditions in which you get deflation are certainly not welcome," he explained.
One factor that may offset the potential for deflation is a recent drop in the value of the Canadian dollar. After starting the year near to parity with its American counterpart, the loonie, as the Canadian currency is popularly known, fell below 80 United States cents this week.

SEE:

Here Come the Seventies

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Recession Hits Alberta

I love it when folks who are in charge of the eonomy claim that they didn't see the recession coming, or they didn't expect it or they are shocked by it.

There is little doubt this week's developments signalled a change in the economic conditions affecting the province -- and in the messages coming from the Stelmach government, said political scientist Peter McCormick of the University of Lethbridge.
"I do think Alberta thought it was flying pretty high -- 'Recessions might hit lesser economies but they can't hurt us because we're oil, and oil never hurts,' " he said Friday."This is completely new territory for the government."

Oh please Peter gimme a break. There was the recession and oil crash of the seventies when the Tired Old Tories first took power. Then there was the oil boom and crash of the late seventies and early eighties which occured while the rest of Canada went into recession, by 1982 the oil market collapsed and Alberta followed the rest of the country into a downward spiral. Then there was the recession and debt/deficit crisis of the ninties. And through out it all the Tired Old Tories were in charge. So this ain't new territory.

Indeed the rose coloured blinders of the oil boom that the Tired Old Tories wear are the same ones they wore in the seventies and eighties. And now the recession has hit Alberta, we still have a budget surplus, just as we did in the ninties. But like the ninties, watch for the Tired Old Tories to start belt tightening and attacking the public sector while giving royalty holidays to their pals in Big Oil.

Indeed, the economic woes have hit on a number of fronts: the stock market slide has hammered Calgary-based petroleum producers; Alberta's housing market is slowing; retail sales are down; a handful of jobs have been cut.
While Ontario's manufacturing sector has been feeling the pain for months, the downturn in commodity markets -- particularly for crude oil -- is squeezing Alberta.
"We have been living in a bit of a dream world for the last little while. Things have not been well in other parts of the country," noted University of Calgary economist Ken McKenzie. "Until recently, we've been relatively removed from that because of high oil prices."
Much of the concern stems from just how quickly economic conditions, including commodity markets, have changed.
Resource revenue is still on pace this year for a record $14.6 billion, but it's about $4.3 billion less than what was predicted only three months ago.
Banks predict the Alberta economy will grow 1.9 per cent this year, gearing down to 0.3 per cent in 2009 -- the slowest since 1986.
"A $2-billion surplus is not a catastrophe compared to other provinces," Bernard said Friday. "There are a lot of positives, I think, for the Alberta economy, but for sure the drop in commodity prices is going to hurt."
McCormick agrees the province is faring better than other parts of the country where deficits are now being calculated. However, the government is trying to manage expectations by talking about tough times ahead.
"It's directed at universities, hospitals, school boards and government employees who are thinking about salary negotiations coming up -- that's who they are talking to," he said. "They are trying to get rid of boom-talk and boom-mentality now."

Alberta veers on royalties
Financial crisis forces energy-rich province to back down on its demands for a "fair share" from the development of its resources; New transitional rate for oil and gas wells will cost government $1.8-billion over the next five years.

It's the second time this year Alberta backtracks on the new policy, launched when energy prices were thought to rise forever. Last April, it backed off royalty increases affecting gas wells deeper than 2,500 metres and oil wells deeper than 2,000 metres.
The changes won't be the last.

SEE:
Black Gold
Steady Eddie Runs Away
Lougheed Spanks Klein
Don Getty's Legacy
You Won't Have Me To Kick Around
Lack of Planning Created Skills Shortage in Alberta
Laundry Workers Fight Privatization


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Auto Solution II

Up the road without a map
KEN LEWENZA
national president, Canadian Auto Workers union
November 20, 2008
Your editorial demands CAW concessions as part of any deal to restructure the North American auto industry (Keeping A Foot In The Car Door - Nov. 19).
The CAW was the first major player in the North American industry to respond pro-actively to the devastating effects of the financial crisis and credit crunch. Our new three-year contract freezes wages, suspends cost of living protection, and introduces, once fully implemented, savings totalling $300-million per year (or more than $10,000 per worker, per year) for Canadian auto makers.
Auto labour costs are significantly lower in Canada than in the U.S., Germany and Japan - yet our productivity is higher (at least 10 per cent better than in America).
We didn't write the free trade deals, we don't manage the companies, we don't design the vehicles - we just build them. The best thing we can do as auto workers is to keep building vehicles in the most efficient, high-quality plants in the hemisphere, at competitive costs.

CAW Ken Lewenza says; "We didn't write the free trade deals, we don't manage the companies, we don't design the vehicles - we just build them." And that's the problem. The solution to the auto crisis is not more concessions from the workers, thats been tried and it hasn't worked. Just as federal provincial aid have not helped because we lack a made in Canada Industrial strategy.

Jim Stanford, chief economist at the CAW, said newly signed contracts between the union and the Canadian arms of the Detroit automakers include several unprecedented givebacks, such as an 18-month suspension in cost-of-living increases.
A lack of policy attention from governments in both Canada and the United States have contributed to Detroit's collapse as much as anything else, he said.
"In Japan and Germany and Korea and now China, governments proactively nurture and support high-value export industries like autos. In North America, for the last two decades, we haven't bothered."

Rather the solution is right in front of all of us the workers should control auto manufacturing in Canada they should manage and design the cars not just 'build them'.

Ken if you don't want to discuss concessions then you better start talking about workers control of the means of production.

If there is to be a bailout, let it be for us, the workers. Who dare say we’re unqualified? In the 1920s Italian workers at Fiat and Alfa Romeo took over the plants, and they made cars without bosses. Even as we speak, workers in Venezuela are taking over plants and running them.

And I would add to that the Paris Revolution of 1968 and the Hot Autumn of 1969 when auto workers in France and Italy along with student radicals took over factories and universities and put them under worker control.

Capitalism is in a crisis it is time to socialize capital under workers control.

November 20, 2008
A suggestion for Big Three and UAW (updated)
Michael Nadler
My conceptual solution to the auto company bailout question is as follows:
The federal government makes a one-time only injection of the requested $25 billion into the Big Three in return for a proportionate ownership stake in the companies. Based on the current market capitalization of GM and Ford and my estimate of the market value of privately-held Chrysler, that would give the government about 80% ownership in the 3 companies. (A discount from the market price could be justified for such an investment, providing a higher ownership stake.)
The $25 billion cash injection is conditioned on the United Auto Workers (UAW) accepting a gift of the 80% (or higher) ownership stake from the government, giving the UAW absolute control of the 3 auto companies which will then be exempted from any anti-trust restrictions on consolidations, etc. The fate of the Big 3 and its workers will then be entirely in the hands of the UAW, which could strike the appropriate balance between compensation and competitiveness, as well as the many other issues that will determine the fate of the auto companies it now owns, the jobs they provide and the workers it represents. In that regard, the obligations of the PBGC might be limited as part of this grand bargain.


Workers' control of the means of production?
One of the most influential books on my political outlook when I was first getting politically aware was Geoff Hodgson's The Democratic Economy, published by Pelican Books in 1984. In it he advocated an economy predominantly consisting of worker-owned enterprises: market collectivism, to use a phrase of Jaroslav Vanek. In a Market Collectivist economy, argues Hodgson(p.177), "The workers are self-managed: they do not work under the direct or indirect control of a capitalist...the workers (collectively) own the product of their labour, which they bring to the market for sale."

SEE:
We Own GM
Auto Solution


tags
MGuinty, GM, concesssion bargaining, unions, trade union, Marx, Ontario, Corporate Welfare, Canada, cars, automobilie, production, taxes, tax credit, investment, environment, hybrid, self-valorization,, self-management,, workers control,, autoworkers,, KEN LEWENZA,,CAW, Big Three Auto,, libertarian socialism, automobile, Frank Stronach, Magna, business unions, auto parts, workers, layoffs, plant-closings, workers-control, unions, labour, Canada

NDP the New Reform Party

Reasearch just published on the results of the October Federal election shows that the new party rising in the West to challenge the Ottawa power base is the NDP. Even in Alberta, where the NDP won a seat they came in second place across the province over all. After all the original reform party of the west was the CCF; the NDP's predecesor. With a seat in Quebec and Alberta the NDP is now a national party unlike the Liberals.

Liberals ran third behind the NDP in every last western province. While New Democrats came second in 46 western ridings, Liberals came second in only 24 ridings. And, again in 24 western seats, Liberals placed fourth behind the Greens and Independents. Of 42 seats up for grabs in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Liberals won just a single seat -- belonging to veteran Grit Ralph Goodale.

SEE:
Liberals Gain Third Party Status
Populism and Producerism


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We Own GM

Since the Big Three have already accepted taxpayer bail outs over the past five years, and now are delinquint on thier pension payments for their workers, why bail them out, we already own them. Time to make them publicly owned under workers control.

As the Toronto Star reported Saturday, GM's actuaries estimated the pension plan for hourly workers would have been short $4.9 billion if the company had gone out of business at the end of November, 2007. But because the pension fund is heavily invested in stocks, the recent fall in stock markets would have left the fund short another $1.5 billion, assuming no other changes in the meantime.

Paul Duxbury, an actuary who has advised GM pensioners in the past, said yesterday that such a shortfall would cost Ontario's guarantee fund as much as $3 billion, if the province provided the money.

The General Motors of Canada Ltd. pension funds had a shortfall of $4.5-billion as of last November - before the stock market collapse - creating a massive financial headache for the Ontario government and pension cuts for retired employees if the company falls into bankruptcy protection.
Senior GM officials revealed the shortfall between the assets in the company's unionized and salaried plans and their liabilities in a meeting yesterday with the editorial board of The Globe and Mail. The shortfalls are measured on a solvency deficiency basis, which would apply if the plans have to be wound up in the event of bankruptcy.

SEE:
Auto Solution
Whiners and Losers
Business Unionism Offers No Solution To Capitalist Crisis
Concessions Don't Work
And Then There Was One
Pension Rip Off
Buzz Off
Unions=Competitiveness
McGuinty Corporate Welfare
Is Delphi the Oracle of things to come?
How Ford Screwed Up
What's good for GM is bad for Workers
Unions the State and Capital
Chrysler Made In Canada?



tags MGuinty, GM, concesssion bargaining, unions, trade union, Marx, Ontario, Corporate Welfare, Canada, cars, automobilie, production, taxes, taxcredit, investment, environment, hybrid, self-valorization,, self-management,, workers control,, autoworkers,, Buzz Hargrove,,CAW, Big Three Auto,, libertarian socialism, automobile, Frank Stronach, Magna, business unions, auto parts, workers, layoffs, plant-closings, workers-control, unions, labour, Canada

Here Come the Seventies

The U.S. cannot cut its interest rates much more or it will end up at zero.

US interest rate falls to 1 per cent

Which means that the U.S. is no longer facing infaltion but the very real recessionary spiral of deflation. The very thing that created the crisis of the Seventies.

Deflation now tops policy-makers' hit list
Globe and Mail, Canada - These are some of the disquieting signs that the once-distant spectre of deflation is looming larger on the horizon, now that economies around the world .
..Deflation: A Primer New York Times
Deflation is the new bogey word as crunch sends prices tumbling Times Online
Deflation worries send Dow below 8000 Washington Times

When your house is burning, there is no sense fretting over painting the fence. With the U.S. economy mired in what will likely be a recession of historic proportions—and an outright depression in some industries—it would be foolish to get too worked up over future inflation concerns. Oracle-of-the-moment Nouriel Roubini, in his Forbes.com column, forecast the following for next year:
“The advanced economies will face stag-deflation (stagnation/recession and deflation) rather than stagflation, as the slack in goods, labor and commodity markets will lead advanced economies’ inflation rates to become below 1% by 2009.”

Remember those wheelbarrows of cash Germans had to use to buy things after WWI watch for Americans to roll out the barrow.

Deflation is considered a problem in a modern economy because of the potential of a deflationary spiral and its association with the Great Depression, although not all episodes of deflation correspond to periods of poor economic growth historically.

And true to form the Austrians celebrate deflation as one of the great things about the Great Depression.

Now we get to the crux of the matter: the Great Depression. The assumption is that falling prices somehow caused the economy to crumble. In fact, it was the after-effects of the boom combined with massive government intervention that caused the depression. The only silver lining in the entire period of the 1930s was precisely the falling prices that made the dollar count for more. Falling prices (a falling cost of living) are what Murray Rothbard has described as the "great advantage" of recessions. If you can imagine the Great Depression without falling prices, you have conjured up an image that is far worse than the reality.
As Rothbard has said, "rather than a problem to be dreaded and combatted, falling prices through increased production is a wonderful long-run tendency of untrammelled capitalism. The trend of the Industrial Revolution in the West was falling prices, which spread an increased standard of living to every person; falling costs, which maintained general profitability of business; and stable monetary wage rates—which reflected steadily increasing real wages in terms of purchasing power. This is a process to be hailed and welcomed rather than to be stamped out."

Now with deflation rising on the horizon as Bush bails out the financial market this prediction from the CATO Institute holds a warning for the future.

The Bush Legacy: Deflation or Inflation?
by Steve H. Hanke
Steve H. Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at The Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute.
Added to cato.org on September 24, 2008

Economists of the Austrian school of economics term this type of debt deflation a "secondary deflation". If the forces of a secondary deflation are strong enough, a central bank's liquidity injections are rendered ineffective by what amounts to private sector sterilization. When people expect prices to fall, their demand for cash increases and soaks up central bank liquidity injections. This phenomenon characterized Japan's economy during most of the 1990s.
But what if the Federal reserve--fearing a secondary deflation, as they feared (incorrectly) a mild deflation in late 2002--pushed the Fed funds rate lower (now it's 2%) and turned on the inflation switch by monetizing more debt? Given the growing mountain of government debt, there is virtually an unlimited potential. It's a scenario worth thinking about.

And that future is here and now.

This week's cover story in The Economist makes it more or less official. Deflation, not inflation, is now the greatest concern for the world economy. Over the past year, producer prices have fallen throughout the advanced world; consumer prices have been falling for the last 6 months in France and Germany; in Japan wages have actually fallen 4 percent over the past year. Until the recent crisis prices were falling in Brazil; they continue to fall in China and Hong Kong; they will probably soon be falling in a number of other developing countries.
So far, none of these price declines looks anything like the massive deflation that accompanied the Great Depression. But the appearance of deflation as a widespread problem is disturbing, not only because of its immediate economic implications, but because until recently most economists - myself included - regarded sustained deflation as a fundamentally implausible prospect, something that should not be a concern.

The point is that deflation should - or so we thought - be easy to prevent: just print more money. And printing money is normally a pleasant experience for governments. In fact, the idea that governments have a hard time keeping their hands off the printing press has long been a staple of political economy; dozens of theoretical papers have argued that the temptation to engage in excessive money creation causes an inherent inflationary bias in fiat-money economies. It is largely to combat that presumed bias that most of the world has accepted the notion that monetary policy should be conducted by an independent central bank, insulated from political influence - and has written into the charters of those central banks that they should seek price stability as their main, often only, goal.

And since we are being nostalgic here is the theme song to the CTV series Here Comes the Seventies....



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sasset-backed commercial paper ,, seventies,deflation, mortgages, housing, bubble, US, economy, oil prices, sub-prime mortgage, Wall Street, crash, recession,Bernanke, Inflation, Staglation, Stock-Market, US, Federal-Reserve-Chairman, Oil, gold, commoditiesSmoot-Hawley, protectionism, tariffs, Herbert Hoover, U.S., U.S. economy, Canada, Great Depression, John McCain, market crash, free trade, Republicans, recession,

Con Game

As I predicted here the Harpocrites have only one song sheet they sing from when it comes to the economy;the old neo-con tighten your belt.

Throne Speech warns of deficit
It pledged cost-control measures in Ottawa, including a squeeze on the budgets of many government departments and a law to limit the pay raises of civil servants.
"Hard decisions will be needed to keep federal spending under control and focused on the results," Ms. Jean read, following with the government's pledge to place grants and capital spending "under the microscope."
Mr. Layton argued that the Throne Speech adopted austerity measures and a laissez-faire approach, when intervention is needed. "I don't think you want to be taking ideas from the Mike Harris-era in Ontario and applying them to today's economic crisis," he said.

SEE:
Blue Throne Speech
Pinocchio Conservatives
Deja Vu


Tags
Canada, Great Depression, market crash, free trade, recession, Harper, Conservatives, deficit, Government, politics, Flaherty, Budget, GST, politicsCanada, Surplus, Economy, Taxes, EI,

Stiglitz On Market Fundamentalism

The market crisis exposes the failure of the neo-con agenda of deregulation, self regulation, privatization and contracting out. The real solution to this crisis as Stiglitz pointed out in 2006 is the socializtion of capital.

Joseph Stiglitz was awarded the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2001.

Gardels: What, then, is the ultimate impact of the Wall Street meltdown of market-driven globalization?

Stiglitz: The globalization agenda has been closely linked with the market fundamentalists -- the ideology of free markets and financial liberalization. In this crisis, we see the most market-oriented institutions in the most market-oriented economy failing and running to the government for help. Everyone in the world will say now that this is the end of market fundamentalism.
In this sense, the fall of Wall Street is for market fundamentalism what the fall of the Berlin Wall was for communism -- it tells the world that this way of economic organization turns out not to be sustainable. In the end, everyone says, that model doesn't work. This moment is a marker that the claims of financial market liberalization were bogus.

Financial markets are supposed to be a means to an end -- a more prosperous and stable economy as a result of good allocation of resources and better management of risk. But instead, financial markets didn't manage risk, they created it. They didn't enable America's families to manage the risk of volatile interest rates, and now millions are losing their homes. Furthermore, they misallocated hundreds of billions of dollar.
We will never achieve perfect stability of our financial markets, or of our economy. Markets are not self-correcting.

Gardels: What set of policies in the advanced countries can make globalization work?

Stiglitz: The prescription for making globalization work is what is generally called “the Scandinavian model.” That means high levels of investment in education, research and technology plus a strong safety net. That of course also entails, as in the Scandinavian countries, a highly progressive income tax.
Far from making these countries less competitive, it has made them more so. Though it may seem a contradiction to conservative ideologues who think cutting taxes is the answer to everything, the fact is that people are more willing to take entrepreneurial risks if they can count on a safety net and if they have the training to be innovative.
In Sweden, the social democrats who fashioned this policy have just been turned out of office. But we should not read that as a some kind of rupture in the social consensus. The new, more conservative government will only be about fine-tuning the model.

SEE:
Blue Throne Speech
Auto Solution
Not So Good News
Huh?
Super Bubble Burst
October Surprise Was The Market Crash
No Austrians In Foxholes
CRASH

Tags
recession,socialism,capitalism,George W. Bush,asset-backed commercial paper ,, stiglitz, globalization, mortgages, FDR, bubble, US, economy, 1933, sub-prime mortgage, Wall Street, crash, recession,Bernanke, Inflation, Staglation, Stock-Market, US, Federal-Reserve-Chairman, Oil, gold, commoditiesSmoot-Hawley, protectionism, tariffs, Herbert Hoover, U.S., U.S. economy, Canada, Great Depression, market crash, free trade, Republicans, recession,

Blue Throne Speech

Why am I not surprised?

Throne speech warns of deficit, offers economic plan

No specifics in Tory economic plan

Because the neo-con agenda was about the failure of Keynesianism, except now all the capitalists and their political puppets are Keynesians when the market crashes. And when they applied their neo-con agenda it was during a temporary debt and deficit crisis of their own creation and it exasperated that into a full blown Reagan Recession. A little historical fact they fail to mention.

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper moved closer to an about-face on economic policy today, outlining plans to stimulate growth that may run up a budget deficit after vowing to preserve surpluses.
A month after his Conservative Party government strengthened its hand in Parliament while falling short of a majority, Harper outlined his legislative agenda in a so-called Speech from the Throne, the ceremonial opening of a session. He pledged ``support'' for the country's car makers and plans to expedite infrastructure spending.
``In a historic downturn, it would be misguided to commit to a balanced budget in the short term at any cost,'' according to the text of the speech, which by tradition was read by Governor General Michaelle Jean in the country's Parliament, while Harper and other lawmakers listened. ``Ongoing'' deficits, though, would be ``unacceptable,'' Harper said.
Harper, who pledged ahead of his Oct. 14 re-election to maintain a balanced budget, told reporters last week his government may need to provide more stimulus to the world's eighth-largest economy to boost demand amid a global recession.


SEE:
Pinocchio Conservatives
Deja Vu
Business Unionism Offers No Solution To Capitalist Crisis

tags
asset-backed commercial paper ,, gold, homes, mortgages, housing, bubble, US, economy, oil prices, sub-prime mortgage, Wall Street, crash, recession,Bernanke, Inflation, Staglation, Stock-Market, US, Federal-Reserve-Chairman, Oil, gold, commoditiesSmoot-Hawley, protectionism, tariffs, Herbert Hoover, U.S., U.S. economy, Canada, Great Depression, market crash, free trade, recession, Harper, Conservatives, deficit, Government, politics, Flaherty, Budget, GST, politicsCanada, Surplus, Economy, Taxes, EI,

Funding A Myth

While the petro economy in Alberta gets bashed the Tired Old Tories plow ahead with funding for the mythical carbon capture and storage. What a waste of money.And this from a government that supposedly is not in the business of funding business, picking winners and losers. Well carbon capture and storage is not just a loser, it does not exist yet. Call it funding the Emperors New Clothes instead of saving for a rainy day. Clean Coal technology is a right wing fantasy.

However, in the face of a $6.5-billion surplus shortfall and multibillion-dollar "green" spending commitments made when oil peaked at $147 US a barrel in July, Finance Minister Iris Evans said Tuesday she doesn't expect there will be anything left to save.
In fact, the province's new fiscal update revealed the heritage fund's value has fallen to $15.8 billion from $17.1 billion, due to the financial market meltdown.
Several government critics are calling the government's decision to push ahead with $2 billion for technology to capture and store greenhouse gas emissions foolhardy.
NDP Leader Brian Mason said the province should inject those public dollars into savings, not hand over seed money to help the energy industry cut its carbon footprint.
"That is just a tiny drop in the bucket for an unproven technology that essentially landfills carbon, rather than focussing on real reductions in carbon emissions," Mason charged.
Evans, however, defended the spending, saying it will help strengthen the province's environmental reputation. Alberta produces more greenhouse gas emissions than any other province.
"Our $2 billion towards our carbon capture and storage is a necessary expenditure to show the world, to show Canada, that we're serious about environment and we're going to get emissions under control," Evans said

Now if only we had those oil and gas royalties in place our provincial budget would not have taken such a hit

SEE:

Harpers Alberta Green Plan

Between Coal and a Hard Place

King Coal

Coal=Cancer

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