Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Ottawa won’t say whether diplomats in Cuba still being briefed on ‘Havana syndrome’ risks

The federal government is refusing to say whether it is still briefing outgoing diplomats bound for the embassy in Cuba — or those heading anywhere else — about the risks and lasting impacts of what's become known as "Havana 
syndrome."
A handful of Canadian diplomats who mysteriously fell ill in Cuba have been unable to return to work as investigators struggle to pinpoint the cause of their symptoms. A man walks beside Canada's embassy in Havana, Cuba, Tuesday, April 17, 2018. THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP-Desmond Boylan

Nearly two dozen Canadian diplomats and family members were diagnosed with “multiple functional and structural impairments” in their brains following their postings there, and documents obtained by Global News show officials warned departing diplomats in 2017 to stay silent on the risks.

And now, recent reports from the New York Times and GQ Magazine that American intelligence sources are pointing the finger at Russia as potentially responsible for similar symptoms in U.S. diplomats and spies, the Canadian government refuses to answer repeated questions about its investigation.

"For privacy and security reasons, we cannot comment on the specifics of the ongoing investigations, individual cases, nor on specific security and briefing measures," said John Babcock, spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada on Monday.


The department's response — the same they gave to a set of questions one month ago — came after Foreign Affairs Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne's office declined to answer questions.

Read more: Canadian officials warned staff bound for Cuba to stay silent on ‘Havana syndrome’

The mystery began in late 2016 and early 2017 when American diplomatic staff at the embassy in Havana, Cuba, began reporting unusual symptoms similar to those from a concussion: hearing loss, memory loss, tinnitus, nose bleeds, vision problems and vertigo, among others.

Canadian diplomatic staff and their families began reporting symptoms in early 2017 and into the following year, with more than 40 Canadian and American diplomats and their families impacted.

But nearly four years after the onset of the mystery, there are no official answers and the Canadian government is fighting 15 of those Canadians impacted in court, arguing the plaintiffs have made “exaggerated” claims.

Global News filed multiple access to information requests for internal emails and official correspondence from Global Affairs Canada about the matter in September 2017, when media reports began emerging of mysterious symptoms affecting diplomats in Cuba.

Those records show officials at Global Affairs Canada warned diplomats departing in the summer of 2017 not to say a word about the symptoms being reported by those already stationed in Havana, and that those briefings made no mention to the fact Canadian children were among those impacted.

“You all have top secret clearance — and understand the responsibilities and obligations that come with that clearance. This information can not be shared," said one of the briefing notes.

Diplomat Allen, a pseudonym imposed by the Federal Court for one of 15 diplomats and their family members now suing the government over its handling of the matter, said the list of symptoms outgoing diplomats were briefed on didn’t come close to what was happening.

He said the briefings given to a new batch of diplomats being sent to join the embassy left out key details — including that his own children had suffered symptoms after a “screeching, metallic” noise was heard in their home in Cuba

He recalled how one woman, who had been posted to the embassy that summer with a young child, approached him several weeks after arriving to ask what his family had experienced several weeks prior.

“She said, ‘They never said anything about kids being affected.'”

That individual and her child are now among the 15 plaintiffs in that $28-million case.

Read more: Canadian officials wondered if Cuba staff imagined symptoms from mysterious attacks

Conservative foreign affairs critic Michael Chong said the government is failing its diplomats by refusing to provide support and clear information about the situation, which remains unresolved.

"The fact that the Liberal government continues to ignore calls from Canadian diplomats and their families for answers about what the government knows about the Havana Syndrome is extremely disappointing," said Chong.

"The Liberals have failed to take steps to protect our diplomats and their families, and are now failing to provide answers about what they knew. The Liberals should also work with our allies and officials to eliminate this risk to our personnel."

"The government must ensure that Canadian diplomats are properly briefed about any security concerns and all necessary steps are taken to ensure their safety, whether in Cuba or anywhere else in the world.”

Government lawyers are arguing in court that diplomats are "exaggerating" their symptoms.

But neither Champagne's office nor Global Affairs Canada would say why, if that's the case, it is still listing the embassy in Cuba as an unaccompanied posting nearly two years after the last reports of new cases, meaning diplomats cannot bring spouses or dependents with them.

That's a risk designation shared with the embassies in countries like South Sudan, Libya and Afghanistan.
Feds split rapid-housing cash between big cities, offer up rest for projects

OTTAWA — Fifteen cities will share $500 million in federal funding so they can buy properties being sold because of the COVID-19 pandemic and use them to help keep people from becoming homeless.
© Provided by The Canadian Press

Canada's biggest city, Toronto, will get the largest slice of that funding pie with about $203 million, with funding also going to Vancouver, Montreal, Ottawa and Edmonton to help their housing providers find places for people in time for winter.

A further $500 million will be up for grabs for projects that will have to be completed within 12 months of federal officials giving the green light for funding.

The money up for grabs is in high demand, with some cities already laying out buying strategies and prepping to apply for the project-based funding stream.

Edmonton Mayor Don Iveson said once those applications are in, cities will be telling the federal Liberals that both pots of money will need to be topped up.

"But the best way to make that argument is to use up the two $500-million allocations quickly, which we intend to do," said Iveson, who chairs the big-city mayors group of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities.

The government considered the program for months as a way to keep people from falling into homelessness heading into the winter, with temporary shelter measures for the COVID-19 pandemic set to expire.

Some cities have rented hotel rooms to accommodate people while shelter capacity is reduced to allow for physical spacing, but they're badly stretched financially.

Toronto Mayor John Tory said in a statement his city needed to pool the money with municipal funds as well as dollars from the private and non-profit sectors "to get affordable housing built as quickly as possible in our city." He added that work is underway on a 12-month investment plan to properly put the funding to work.

Social Development Minister Ahmed Hussen said cities have already identified properties to buy, or have plans for modular housing that can be built in a matter of months, leading him to say Tuesday that he expected to see "a lot of housing being built before the winter."

Hussen has previously said he hopes to have most of the money spent before March 2021, when the federal fiscal year ends.

The figures the federal government provided Tuesday add details about the Liberals' plan to create or purchase 3,000 new affordable housing units across Canada. Cities had estimated a need of about 12,000 units.

"The cold, wet weather is upon us. Tent cities are occurring all throughout the country. An allocation of 3,000 units will not even come close to addressing the homelessness crisis," NDP housing critic Jenny Kwan said in a statement.

What's also needed is for provincial governments to provide cash for health and counselling services to keep people housed in the new units, said Vancouver Mayor Kennedy Stewart.

The federal funding will cover purchase and construction costs, but the dollars needed to operate the new units will have to come from provincial or municipal coffers.

At the moment, municipal coffers are already stretched from the pandemic. Revenues dropped as recreational facilities sat unused and ridership diminished on transit systems, and costs increased for extra cleaning and emergency services.

The Liberals sent $2 billion to cities through a "safe restart" agreement with the provinces last month, and promised to match up to $2.3 billion more in provincial money for transit systems.

The money helps cities until the end of March, but municipal councils are looking at their budgets for 2021 with questions about how a second wave of COVID-19 may affect their bottom lines, Iveson said.

Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc said Tuesday there were no immediate plans to provide more funding to cities, unless provinces made the case that more was needed to avoid service cuts.

"You wouldn't want a situation in the context of the pandemic that these services were less available or somehow were diminished at a time when people need the most," LeBlanc said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 27, 2020.

Jordan Press, The Canadian Press
Rooster kills police chief after raid on illegal cockfight
Josh K. Elliott 

A town police chief was killed by a rooster armed with an ankle blade on Monday after officers broke up an illegal cockfighting ring in the Philippines.
© Jorge Fernández/LightRocket via Getty Images

Police raided the illegal cockfight in Madugang village outside San Jose, in the Philippines' Northern Samar province, officials said Wednesday.

San Jose Police Chief Lt. Christian Bolok was inspecting a rooster after the raid when he was cut with its ankle blade, the AFP reports. The blade sliced into Bolok's left thigh, severing his femoral artery.

Bolok bled out on his way to the hospital.

Read more: Man’s eyes gouged out in neighbour dispute over victim’s loud rooster

"It was an unfortunate accident and a piece of bad luck that I cannot explain," said Col. Arnet Apud, the provincial police chief.

Apud added that he couldn't believe what had happened when it was first reported to him.

"This is the first time in my 25 years as a policeman that I lost a man due to a fighting cock's spur," he told the AFP.

A similar incident occurred in India in January, when a rooster fatally wounded a man with its spur on the way to a cockfight.

Provincial Gov. Edwin Ongchuan says other officers tried to save Bolok by tying off the wound, but they may have applied a tourniquet in the wrong spot. He also suggested the possibility of poison.

"The problem was the rooster's blade may have been laced with poison," Ongchuan told the Associated Press.

Read more: Mutant crayfish clones take over cemetery after aquarium escape

Three suspects were arrested at the scene, Apud said. Police also seized several roosters and two sets of spurs in the raid.

The ankle blades, called gaffs, are often attached to cock-fighters' ankles to make them more dangerous.

Cockfighting is a popular blood sport in the Philippines, where people will bet on the birds before they fight to the death. Many of the fights are legal and licensed, although some rings operate outside the law.

Read more: Bears fatally maul zookeeper in front of visitors at China zoo

Legal fights are only permitted on Sundays and holidays.

The Philippine government has temporarily banned cockfighting along with other cultural and sporting events due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

— With files from the Associated Press

Lone protester climbs factory chimney to tell Belarus leader to qu
it

(Reuters) - The young man in the black woollen ski hat is nervous. He pauses repeatedly to catch his breath and remember the short speech he has prepared.

But when he speaks, he addresses Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in a firm, clear voice. In his left hand, he holds a red and white flag, the symbol of the protest movement against the veteran president.

"You must announce your departure, you must halt violence and you must release all political prisoners," says the young factory worker, who gives his name as Viktor Mankevich.

A video https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1321398280933253120 posted on Twitter on Wednesday shows Mankevich making his lonely protest after climbing a ladder to reach a narrow platform near the top of a factory chimney.

"Don't destroy our country. If you have anything human about you, if you really care about Belarus, then go. Go now, before it's too late," he tells Lukashenko.

Shortly afterwards, he was arrested by police, according to the news website Tut.By, quoting colleagues.

An interior ministry spokeswoman was not immediately available for comment.

The desperate protest gesture comes at a critical moment for the opposition movement, which accuses Lukashenko of rigging a presidential election on Aug. 9 and had given him until last Sunday night to resign or face a national strike.

The three-day-old strike has so far failed to paralyse the country as the opposition had threatened. Its leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has said the strike movement is growing, but that it faces "colossal pressure" from the authorities.

(This story corrects day of week to Wednesday in 4th paragraph.)

(Reporting by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)



Obama mocks Trump for being 'jealous of COVID's media coverage'

tcolson@businessinsider.com (Thomas Colson)


Watch Former President Barack Obama mock President Donald Trump for being "jealous of COVID's media coverage."



"What's his closing argument? That people are too focused on COVID...'COVID, COVID, COVID,' he's complaining. He's jealous of COVID's media coverage." Former Pres. Barack Obama slams Pres. Trump's response to the pandemic while campaigning for Joe Biden. abcn.ws/3kEUgda

The former president told a campaign rally for Joe Biden in Orlando, Florida, that the president was trying to distract people from the fact he had "completely screw this [pandemic response] up."

"What is his closing argument... That people are too focused on COVID. He said this at one of his rallies. 'COVID, COVID, COVID,' he is complaining. He is jealous of COVID's media coverage.

Trump responded by tweeting that Obama is "drawing VERY small (tiny) numbers of people" to his speeches.


Donald Trump is "jealous of Covid's media coverage," former President Barack Obama said on Tuesday as he mocked the president's record on tackling the coronavirus pandemic.

"The pandemic would've been challenging for any president, but the idea that this White House has done anything but completely screw this up is nonsense," Obama told a campaign rally for Joe Biden in Orlando Florida.

"What is his closing argument?" Obama asked.

"That people are too focused on COVID. He said this at one of his rallies 'COVID, COVID, COVID'. He is complaining. He is jealous of COVID's media coverage."
Watch Obama mock Trump's coronavirus response

In an apparent response to the attack, Trump tweeted that Obama is "drawing VERY small (tiny) numbers of people," adding that "Biden is drawing almost no one."

Trump also appeared to criticise Fox News for covering Obama's speech, tweeting: "Now Fox News is playing Obama's no crowd, fake speech for Biden, a man he could barely endorse because he couldn't believe he won. Also, I PREPAID many Millions of Dollars in Taxes."

Over 70 million Americans are reported to have cast their voters in the presidential election in the run-up to the final polling day on November 3, according to a tally on Tuesday from the US Elections Project which was cited by Reuters.

Joe Biden, the Democratic challenger, has a durable national polling lead over President Trump, but the race between the two candidates appears much closer in several key battleground states.

President Obama was ranked the second most popular Democrat in the US in a YouGov survey carried out this year, behind only Jimmy Carter, meaning his vocal support for his former vice-president has been a potentially useful campaign asset.

At a drive-in rally for Biden in Philidelphia last week, Obama also attacked Trump's coronavirus response, telling the audience that Trump would not protect Americans from the pandemic because he could "barely take the basic steps to protect himself."

He also referenced a New York Times story which reported that Trump maintains a bank account in China, based on tax records obtained by the paper.

"He's got a secret Chinese bank account. How is that possible?" Obama said at the rally on October 22.

"Can you imagine if I had had a secret Chinese bank account when I was running for reelection? You think Fox News might have been a little concerned about that."

Read the original article on Business Insider
White House seeks to clarify press release claiming Trump ended the COVID-19 pandemic


Nathaniel Weixel 

A press release claiming that President Trump ended the coronavirus pandemic was "poorly worded" and Trump does not believe the pandemic is over, a White House spokesperson said Wednesday.
© Getty Images White House seeks to clarify press release claiming Trump ended the COVID-19 pandemic

"The intent was to say that it is our goal to end the virus," White House strategic communications director Alyssa Farah said during a Fox News interview.

"Cases are still rising and we need the American public to remain vigilant. This is the top priority of the president, defeating this virus and rebuilding our economy," Farah said.

Farah was attempting to clarify a press release sent Tuesday from the White House science office, which listed "ENDING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC" in bold capital letters as the top accomplishment of President Trump's first term.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has set records for new daily infections, and numerous hospitals across the country are stretched to their breaking points.

But Trump has continuously dismissed and downplayed the severity of the pandemic and has complained that the media is only focusing on the pandemic in order to undermine his reelection campaign.

"Covid, Covid, Covid is the unified chant of the Fake News Lamestream Media. They will talk about nothing else until November 4th., when the Election will be (hopefully!) over. Then the talk will be how low the death rate is, plenty of hospital rooms, & many tests of young people," Trump tweeted Wednesday.


Trump has been holding rallies with thousands of people and minimal physical distancing or mask-wearing. He says the country is "rounding the turn," and claimed the rise in cases is merely because the U.S. is testing more people.

On Wednesday, Farah said Trump means that the U.S. is in a better position to deal with the virus than before and is "rounding the corner" because of the availability of treatment options and the potential for a vaccine to become available by the end of the year.

"We are rushing therapeutics. We've got remdesivir on the market that people are able to use. We've got monoclonal antibodies, we've got steroids that are able to be used to treat the most vulnerable," Farah said.

The Food and Drug Administration recently approved remdesivir to treat moderate and severe cases of COVID-19, but it remains the only treatment on the market.

Antibody therapy has shown some promise in patients with mild to moderate cases; however, the treatment is experimental and no drugs have been authorized for use yet.

But the country is averaging more than 70,000 new cases of COVID-19 a day, and even if antibody drugs were available, the supply is not going to be anywhere close to the demand.
Jack Dorsey once reportedly tried to give Pakistani activist Malala Yousafzai a seat on Twitter's board

ahartmans@businessinsider.com (Avery Hartmans)
© Provided by Business Insider Square and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey. Joshua Roberts/Reuters

Jack Dorsey tried to give a seat on Twitter's board of directors to Pakistani activist Malala Yousafzai in 2016, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The idea was met with opposition internally, as was the idea to add civil rights activist DeRay Mckesson, the Journal reports.

Dorsey and Mckesson appear to be good friends, and Dorsey has admired Yousafzai for several years, calling her the person who inspires him the most in a 2015 interview with Recode


Square and Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey is known for being an unusual CEO: he used to walk five miles to the office every day, has gone on silent meditation retreats, and makes it a point to befriend thought leaders and moguls in industries outside of tech.

Those relationships seem to have led to an attempt to add new faces to Twitter's board several years ago, according to a new profile by the Wall Street Journal's Kirsten Grind and Georgia Wells.

In 2016, Dorsey tried to give a seat on Twitter's board to Malala Yousafzai, the Pakistani girls' education activist and Nobel Prize laureate. The idea was met with opposition internally, as Yousafzai had very little business experience, according to the Journal.

The same year, Dorsey also tried to give a board seat to civil rights activist DeRay Mckesson — Dorsey faced internal pushback on that idea as well, according to the Journal.

A spokesperson for Twitter declined to comment.

Dorsey and Mckesson have been friends for several years, with Mckesson praising Dorsey's "curiosity outside of tech" and commitment to racial equality in an interview with the Journal.

It's not clear the extent of Dorsey and Yousafzai's friendship, but in April, Dorsey committed $1 billion of his equity in Square to funding efforts around coronavirus relief, girls' health and education, and universal basic income. The move drew praise from Yousafzai on Twitter, who commended Dorsey's commitment to girls' education.

Dorsey previously promoted the Malala Fund with a hashtag in his Twitter bio, and in a 2018 interview with NBA star Harrison Barnes for The Players' Tribune, Dorsey named Yousafzai as one of three living people he'd like to have dinner with. Dorsey also named Yousafzai as the person who inspires him the most in a 2015 interview with Recode.

South Korea vows to go carbon neutral by 2050 to fight climate emergency

South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, has declared that the country will go carbon neutral by 2050, bringing it into line with other major economies.
© Provided by The Guardian Photograph: Kim Chul-Soo/EPA 
South Korea’s Green New Deal will invest in green infrastructure, clean energy and electric vehicles.

In a policy speech in the national assembly on Wednesday, Moon said South Korea, one of the world’s most fossil fuel-reliant economies, would “actively respond” to the climate emergency “with the international community and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050”.

He vowed to end its dependence on coal and replace it with renewables as part of its Green New Deal, a multibillion-dollar plan to invest in green infrastructure, clean energy and electric vehicles.

Related: Japan will become carbon neutral by 2050, PM pledges

South Korea is the latest major economy to commit to zero emissions. The European Union set itself a similar target last year, with Japan following suit this week. China said in September it would achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Moon’s announcement is in line with a proposal made by his ruling party before April’s national assembly elections.

Its Green New Deal calls for an end to financing of overseas coal plants, and the introduction of a carbon tax, creating urban forests, recycling, establishing a foundation for new and renewable energy, and creating low-carbon industrial complexes.

Campaigners welcomed Moon’s announcement, but warned that South Korea – the world’s seventh-biggest emitter of carbon dioxide in 2017, according to the International Energy Agency – would have to transform its energy policy to stand a chance of reaching the zero-emissions milestone.

“South Korea is finally one step closer to aligning itself with the reduction pathway compatible with Paris climate agreement goals,” Joojin Kim, managing director of the Seoul-based NGO Solutions for Our Climate, said in a statement.

“However, there is much to be done to make this declaration actually meaningful. The most urgent tasks are enhancing its 2030 emissions reduction target, presenting a clear roadmap to phase out coal by 2030, and putting a complete stop to coal financing.”

Jude Lee of Greenpeace East Asia said Moon’s pledge was “another important step forward. We expect that this important pledge leads the Korean industry to swiftly shift from fossil fuels to a 100% renewables-based system.”

South Korea relies on coal for about 40% of its electricity generation, with renewables making up less than 6%. It still has seven coal power units under construction. It is also one of the top three public financiers of overseas coal power projects, mostly in Asia, Solutions for Our Climate said.

The country will struggle to achieve net-zero emissions “without fundamental changes in energy policy”, Kim said. “South Korea must immediately stop the construction of new coal power plants, and begin replacing the existing coal fleet with renewables.”
A deep recession should hurt Trump's reelection bid, but this isn't a usual downturn

With less than a week until the election, it's not clear whether news from the economy and stock market will help or hurt President Donald Trump. But Wednesday's massive drop in the Dow can't be helping.

US President Donald Trump went after top government scientist Anthony Fauci in a call with campaign staffers on October 19, 2020, suggesting the hugely respected and popular doctor was an "idiot." 







By Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business

CNN polling shows Biden with a sizable head-to-head nationwide lead as of October 22, and within striking distance of the 270 electoral votes needed to claim victory.

On top of that: No incumbent has ever won a second term when there has been a recession in the two years leading up to the election, according to data from RiverFront Investment Group. Think Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and Herbert Hoover.

But this, to put it mildly, is a strange downturn.

"A lot of recessions are caused by high interest rates or the unwinding of a bubble," said Ashok Bhatia, deputy chief investment officer of fixed income with Neuberger Berman in an interview with CNN Business.

"One should be careful of saying that this recession is bad for the incumbent since it had a much different cause," he added.


The Trump economy vs. other presidents

Still, Wednesday's plunge in the Dow can't be helping Trump's chances, even amid rising hopes that this recession will be brief. In fact, the government is expected to report Thursday morning that gross domestic product in the third quarter bounced back sharply. And parts of the economy, most notably housing, have proven to be remarkably resilient.

Hopes for a revival in the economy — as well as corporate earnings — are also big reasons why the stock market has rallied sharply since March.

"Investors priced in the shutdown and reopening of the economy earlier this year and are now waiting for what's next," said Markus Schomer, chief economist with PineBridge Investments.

Yes, there has been more volatility in recent weeks due to fears about rising Covid-19 cases. But despite their nearly 3% drops Wednesday, the S&P 500 is still up for the year, and the Nasdaq — led by America's tech giants — has surged nearly 25% in 2020.

So the rebound in stocks over the past few months could be a notch in the Trump column — but it's not that simple.

Some argue the real reason the market has bounced back is because investors are betting on a Biden victory and blue wave that will give Democrats control of the Senate.


Stock rally may not signal a Trump win

That could lead to another round of economic aid from the White House and Congress early on in 2021.

"Despite what's going on now, investors expect more stimulus and a return to normalcy. You do have a good amount of money betting on a Biden presidency and even a unified House and Senate," said Tim Barron, chief investment officer of Segal Marco Advisors.

Wall Street may not be scared off by the prospect of Biden and Congress quickly undoing Trump's tax cuts either. That's because some think Biden is likely to focus more on stimulus, which could include a long-awaited infrastructure spending package, as a more immediate need than tax reform.

"Nobody wants to risk this recovery. Public officials should do no harm," said Talley Leger, senior investment strategist with Invesco. "Nobody in their right mind would want to raise taxes right now."

Leger pointed out that if Democrats don't win the Senate, it will be harder for a President Biden to undo all of the Trump tax cuts. And even in a blue wave scenario, Leger argues that Biden might look to follow the more moderate lead of his former boss Barack Obama.


Forget the president. The Fed matters more for the market

President Obama extended several of President George W. Bush's tax cuts during his first term in order to ensure that the US economy could heal from the Great Recession.

Wall Street is more focused on whether there will be more stimulus coming from the Federal Reserve. And that's not likely to change.

Investors expect Fed chair Jerome Powell will be reappointed to a second term no matter who wins the presidency, so he can continue to manage the central bank's response to the coronavirus crisis.

"As long as Powell wants another term, he probably would get it," said Neuberger Berman's Bhatia.

There are also hopes that once the election campaign is finally over, the White House and Congress will refocus on getting more money to consumers and businesses -- no matter who's the president.



Trump administration claims progress over China farm purchases

White House says China bought US$23bn in farm products, but some believe the figures are ‘overly optimistic’

Total includes sales that have yet to be shipped and may not meet end-of-year deadline

Bloomberg Published: 5:54pm, 25 Oct, 2020

The Trump administration says new agricultural trade data shows that Beijing is on track to fulfil its commitments in the US-China trade deal by the end of the year, including “all-time high” purchases of American beef, pork, corn and soybeans. Other analysts, however, say the administration’s claims are misleading.

“Using the best methodology, we have calculated that China has purchased approximately 71 per cent of its target for 2020,” an administration report published last week said, promoting the new numbers as a victory for US farmers in the face of China’s “problematic” trade practices.

With days left before the election, President Donald Trump and his advisers are keeping a close eye on sentiment among farmers, a constituency that helped him win the White House four years ago. In Iowa, however, a major corn- and soybean-producing state that Trump won by more than nine percentage points in 2016, he is behind Democratic challenger Joe Biden in many polls.

A separate report set to be published this week by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) says that, at a closer look, the administration’s latest numbers are inaccurate.

Unpacking the ‘phase one’ deal for the US-China trade war

Instead of all-time highs, PIIE’s analysis shows that China’s agriculture purchases from the US this year are expected to be largely even with 2017, when Trump took office.

“We're now nine months through 2020, and US exports to China are slightly over 50 per cent of the way toward the year-to-date targets”, below the 71 per cent number claimed by the administration, said Chad Bown, the author of the report and a former White House senior economist who closely tracks US-China trade data.

“That's still well short of the pace needed to fulfil the purchase commitment targets,” he said.

The difference between his math and the Trump administration’s reckoning, said Bown, is that the administration added in purchasing predictions and projections that have no guarantees.

David Laborde Debucquet, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, agreed, questioning the superlative used in the Trump administration’s report.

“The methodology is ‘the best’ to get the results desired, not to actually check if the agreement has been implemented as written in black and white,” said Laborde Debucquet.


Bown said his own math simply followed the formula laid out in the text of the trade deal.

“They're still pretty far behind on meeting the agricultural targets,” he said, adding that some agricultural goods, like lobsters – a key export from the swing state of Maine – have plummeted.

Bown added that if China’s trade behaviour has changed in recent months, it has little to do with pressure from Trump and far more to do with other factors, like an African swine fever outbreak that has decimated China’s domestic pork supply.

US pork exporters are doing “very, very well” this year as a result, Bown said.

He also said that agricultural trade was only a small part of the story, adding that US sales of manufacturing goods and energy to China were doing even worse.

The two reports come amid plummeting US-China relations, with Trump and both parties in Congress eager to put pressure on China over a range of issues, including trade.

US-China relations: Joe Biden would approach China with more ‘regularity and normality’

Trade policy in particular has been a top priority for Trump since he took office, and his administration is eager to show that it has delivered on its promise to fight back against China’s alleged unfair trade practices.

And as the coronavirus pandemic has hurt the American economy, Trump has turned to blaming China, where the outbreak first emerged, for the damage. He has vowed to make China “pay” for it, though he has not said how.
But the latest trade numbers also come with just eight days remaining before the election. Millions of Americans have already cast their ballots, and the US economy is considered a top priority for many voters.

Trump earned strong support from farmers in 2016, but after his trade war, waves of tariffs, and the coronavirus pandemic, it remains to be seen how many of them will vote for his re-election.

The administration’s trade report said that “these structural changes will benefit American farmers for decades to come”.


This article appeared in the South China Morning Post print edition as: Trade deal figures do not add up, analysts say

Jacob Fromer has reported from Beijing and Washington. He has a master’s degree from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy.